Silver Hits All-Time Highs! Why Top Experts Say This Is Just the Beginning
Summary
Silver Market Outlook: The podcast discusses a bullish long-term outlook for silver, highlighting its potential to outperform gold due to macroeconomic factors such as debt collapse and currency debasement.
Technical Analysis: The current technical setup for silver suggests short-term pullbacks, but the long-term trend remains positive, with significant resistance levels around $39 and $50 being key focus points.
Investment Strategy: Investors are advised to consider physical silver for long-term holding, while ETFs and digital products may be more suitable for short-term speculative moves.
Mining Stocks: The podcast emphasizes the potential of mining stocks to deliver significant returns, especially as silver prices rise, with a focus on top-tier companies and the importance of warrants in maximizing returns.
Market Dynamics: Silver's structural deficit, driven by industrial demand and limited supply, is a critical factor supporting higher prices, regardless of economic conditions.
Historical Comparisons: The current silver market is compared to the 1970s bull market, suggesting potential for dramatic price increases similar to past parabolic moves.
Portfolio Diversification: Silver is presented as a valuable diversification tool against fiat currency risks and equity-heavy portfolios, with a recommendation to consult financial advisors for personalized strategies.
Future Prospects: The podcast anticipates a continued upward trajectory for silver, with potential for triple-digit prices in the coming years, driven by both industrial and investment demand.
Transcript
If you're looking for a simple, secure way to invest and own physical gold and silver, visit our sister company, Hardass Assets Alliance, at hardassetsallalliance.com. That's hardassallalliance.com. I'm trying to figure out how much you think silver and gold are connected. You seem to think that I believe that you think they are fairly highly connected. So the question is you know what's the current setup in silver? Yeah. So let's bring let's start dealing with silver uh more directly now. Um the macro picture is incredibly bullish. So with everything I've said about demand possible destroying events, the trickiness of September and October and all of that narratives long run both these guys going up in investment high probability debasement debt collapse everything. That's where I stand. short this that was mainly a shortened medium, you know, next week and a couple of months to the year end if we had a drama. Um, so most people are not on the worried about what it does to December. They're worried about where it'll be two years from now, 3 years, 5 years from now. Uh, you're all golden on those ones on both of these and silver will eventually be an outperformer. However, we have to also technically notice we met a couple of targets on silver. So again for people there will be some people watching this and saying do I buy today and or and god forbid be careful out there some people that say should I take a leverage long position today and hope to make money by next week. I'm not positively disposed to those people that are on the short term that may be using leverage or people that want to buy a sizable lump sum today. I think you might get an opportunity to get it a little bit cheaper both silver and gold. But the the the macro of this particular structure is absolutely bullish. Um traditional technical analysts will give you the usual cup and handle uh narrative like that. Uh and again just as I highlight on the short term, these are shooting stars. Uh that means you've been pushed back down twice. And in this current month, you're having a smaller shooting star inside the previous one. So, I'm not sure if those candles are that well visible. Let me get rid of my overlay draw. But that points to not chronic ones, but it points to shortterm. You might get a couple of extra ounces a little cheaper lower down at some point. So, it's not a whale in massive put your whole life savings today in and it's not a leverage trade long right now. Um, but it is on a bigger time frame. I will highlight something else and I think this is part of what they will push back against. If we go for a quarter, so this is a threemon chart and I'm pulling it through again. I want to just highlight currently where you were at yesterday and I think it's just changed today where you were at yesterday. If we had closed the quarter, which only happens uh what's it? Uh September, end of September. So you need the rest of August and all of them. you were higher at any candle body level than any time before. So we have now already given that up. You can see that dotted line is a tiny bit below that close there. Yesterday if we were having that discussion you were higher than that that and that and you can see the second half ease back that is taking place as well. So, I think the quarter, they really don't want you to have a high all-time high quarterly close. Remember these $50 amounts, they were wicks in a quarterly that you never held for 3 months. You came right the way back down. So, it's quite important to remember that the clothes for that candle over there in the 1980s. Many of the people watching that wouldn't have been born and I wore a lot younger man's clothes back then. I was still in school. Um the open there is 3775. We were actually 38 and the highest candle here which is the open on that one is 30 open open is 3765 and the close on that one was uh 3765. So we've actually been sitting at the the three classic highs, the current, the 2011 and the 1980. We've actually been at a quarterly high point if we closed and I think we fall below that. So I think we right now short-term no you're going to get a little bit cheaper sometimes with big macro this is such a big time frame it's a quarterly time frame this taking us back to 1980 and the 70s um sometimes with a head uh cup and handle that when the handle is as big as it is it don't forget this is running us 2011 to 25 you get another smaller fractal handle the handle gets a baby handle if that makes sense and you fractalize again. So you could have that little pullback. It won't go anywhere near as deep, but it'll consume some time and come back up. So you're going to get a multiple triggering event. We talk about it. We did it with gold once, twice, three times. The fourth time a lady, that's your break. Um so it's kind of like you get rejected three times and then the fourth time um you've got your date. Uh and we're at the third time here. So I sense not quite yet. Trigger firing time for the silver market could go uh lower a little bit. That's not a bare call, by the way. This is a technician watching when's the best time to put his next lumpsum in uh in terms of this market and you could just find yourself uh pulling back a bit. Have I answered it sufficiently or do you have any other questions on that? Well, I actually have a whole list of specific questions on how I thought the HV app worked, but we don't we don't need to necessarily pound them all through to you now. We may have to come back and do a more detailed uh analysis of the model uh in the future. But let me ask this general question. I'm sure you're aware of the slingshot interpretation of silver and how it uh moves versus gold. There are certainly a lot of people who are in the camp that silver moves later than gold, but you know, when it breaks out, it accelerates. And 39, I'm I'm not sure where that shows up on all of your technical analysis, but just to a rookie looking at 39, it seems like a pretty big uh level. And so if we trade at 40, are you in the camp that you know, silver's due for a real slingshot move? Uh yes yes yes I do. Um there's a couple uh of things you were asking. You were asking about the 39 level and I think with that quarterly close discussion that 37.65 37 12 to 39 range generally at the moment is being uh pushed back against somewhat. It's not being it's not being successfully rejected actually and I think some of the fundamentals could probably be leading into that. Um, in terms of our you may also mentioned the HVF method which is three impulses and a squeeze in volatility. We do still have a draw here that hasn't fully made its target but did trigger um and that is the three impulses and the squeeze in volatility. So when you introduced uh you missed the funneling word which was hunt volatility funnel, you actually get squeezed into like a protein shake almost into the funneling and then you break and we broke uh we made our first interim target on a wick. We pulled back which is typical target response. Then we made the second interim target over here. Both done quite soon and then you've been grinding higher. It's a little bit like a rising wedge. Uh, and we've got a lot of time to make this target. You'll see these vertical lines tell us our time stops. Um, so you could still have a fall back down out of the rising wedge and that two shooting stars, a little bit of a pullback. I I'm not even saying as far as 32. It doesn't have to be that far. Could be a bit further. You could pull back like that and then end up running the 41. Um, the question is, will we ever get for this quarter a 41 close? And I'm not sure necessarily I can say that. Will that all happen in the next six weeks? Possible. So, we could go down first because I'm cautioning on the short term. You probably could get a better price on the longer term and it might not be that long. You know, this could all happen in the next week or two with a bit of a yen carry trade like August last year, tail end of August last year. Uh or the British debt situation. We get a little bit of and then we you next thing you know we are going back up. But you could also pull back a little harder and even revisit the funnel. I don't think so. That was a long way ago. That's, you know, that's extreme. But don't forget, we traded on spot. Not that you could buy 11, I think $11 at co. It was either 11 or 14. We can check that now. Um, you could forget about buying it at that price um with premium. So, let's just find the 2020. What was the low there? Yep, it was actually 11. But you could only buy I think for $14 something. Um and that was a great buy as well. So even if we get a drama of an event that's a little spill um that can happen. Uh so it's possible but for this pattern to win out you can't run that stop. So I don't think the move's that big. You have a pullback and then we go and we finish the 41 run which will be a great close and then it sets us up for okay can we go test 50? probably get rejected because we've been rejected before. But that'll be the third time, the fourth time a lady we break. And once we through 50, that fourth time pass, which I still think we've got to go visit for a third time first, that is just open territory. That's when I think actually triple digits comes rather quickly then. Um, and there there is some real fancyful I almost become a moonboy in terms of my bullishness because that's open territory. And that again will be dollar debasement, but it'll also be the fundamentals of unoptanium, which we're already encountering in platinum that we're not far off from having in silver. By the way, unoptanium is a great word. Uh, especially if you have a South African accent. A little bit difficult for me. But so if we're going to reduce this for those again following along trying to pick out a few important numbers, is there a number or two you'd highlight? In other words, you just mentioned uh 40 is important and then 50 means probably a hundred. What about on the downside? What what are the number negative numbers we should be looking for or not looking for but we should be aware of if they occur? Well, that would come down to if we have an event similar to uh CV19. Um, and that would be a very thin trade and I would imagine a lot of banks would try to get out of shorts if they ever successfully got that same level of spill that we had there to happen now. um to make that handle to the handle. Uh I would imagine they would be very well served getting out of any derivative short positions as best they can there because I think that would that's going to be a real problem. I mean you think of solid state batteries that will be be charging in a fraction of the time running twice three times longer. If they want all this battery technology which I think they do they want to track and trace us everywhere. They want us in battery cars. uh the more reason I'm going to buy diesel ones. But you know that point aside um the the performance of those were going to require just the 20% market take in normal batteries of solid state batteries would take 96% of mind annually supply. So I mean they really just don't have enough silver for all the technology use uses that they uh have for it. So, I would actually prefer to talk about the the upsides once we pass 50. I don't think uh the downsides are exceptional if you've been a patient stacker for a long time. And I imagine I'm talking to quite a few long-suffering patient stackers in the silver market. Um I think the most of the bad error is behind you. This October, Wealthian's putting the spotlight on silver with expert interviews, deep analysis, and a special in-depth report from our partners at SCP Resource Finance. To receive this report and other exclusive benefits, you can sign up to become an accredited investor with Wealthon at wealth.com/acredited or by finding the link in the description below. Speaking of silver, Wealthon will be on the ground in Toronto for the SCP Resource Finance second global silver conference happening on Thursday, October 23rd. Legendary investor Eric Sprat headlines the event alongside 15 silver mining companies presenting their top projects. It's a must attend for anyone serious about investing in silver. Tickets, both in person and virtual, are now available. Find out more in the description below. [Music] So once we push past 50 and we maintain it for I'd say a few weeks, two or three weeks, every close is above 50 in US dollar terms for you know 15 trading days then we've established a new limit and that overall resistance that's been there for decades, you'll become support. And once that takes place, whether it's three weeks or three months, once the market recognizes that, we're off to the races. Now, what I think is it'll stall out at 50, uh, reconsolidate and blast through it shortly thereafter. Many of the, uh, let's say the bears in some can't get us past 50. I told you blah blah blah blah. You silver bulls are wrong. Da da da. That goes on for a few days or a few weeks. All of a sudden it's at 60. And now we don't know what we're going to because once you get to a new high in a market, nothing's more bullish than a new high because everyone that owns it going to hold it. I don't want to sell it because I don't know how high it's going to go. And I've heard, you know, even David Morgan say it's going to go to 100. We're only at 60. I'm not selling. So that means any I mean one ounce of new buying pressure will move the market higher because no one's selling. That's what happened with GameStop. The reason those shorts got clobbered so bad is they're kind of their lead guy was saying not selling yet. So everybody was holding and there isn't anything in the market to to buy back and the shorts have to buy back to close out their position and there's no sales. What do you buy if it doesn't exist? M so the same thing or similar thing could happen in the silver market and now that retail uh holds as I said you know over two billion ounces of the 3.6 six and the funds hold you know 6 of that or 600 million. So you add those two together, you got about um you know the lion's share of the silver market is held by retail, not by the banks, bullion banks. Then they're actually in control. Although it may not appear I it could be in control. I guess when it gets down to the physical market, they are in control. When it gets down to the derivatives market, which are still playing in the banks have the advantage, right? So, your comment about when it goes above 50, there won't be any sellers made me smile because this morning I was reading a Reuters article about last week's movement. You know, obviously we had big moves on Friday and we're at or near new highs and the reporter actually made me smile. He said, "Stocks are going higher because there's so many buyers and there's so many buyers because stocks are going higher." So, it's just going to be that way for a while. But, I thought that was pretty funny. So between here and 50 uh I've heard you talk about the stairst step pattern that silver is displaying. Is there any you know 39 seems to be a pretty important number. Is there anything important between 39 and 50 that uh viewers may want to focus on? Yeah. I mean if you don't mind me taking just a moment see I pull up a silver chart really quick. It really isn't. I mean, okay. Because I heard a bit of talk about you talked about 44, 46, 48, but it was a couple of months ago and you were sort of talking about a different topic. But I wondered if those were trigger points. Not really. I mean, they're so small in duration you can blast through them with any substantial buying. Okay. Basically through the 35 barrier. And why are we playing at 39? You can make arguments for all kinds of things. Primarily, it's the algorithms. It's the way it's set up in the futures markets where these bots are doing these trades back and forth all day long every day, every market trading day. And because of that, it's going to keep there. I'm really happy that it's stairstepping up. What we really don't want to see is a great big spike high that just takes a matter of a few weeks. Because if that's the case and we go parabolic then there is no support level. It's just an up and down situation and that will not be supportive. Whereas if we get a stair step and we get a base and move up and another base and move up that is the way to build a market that has some substance to it. So I'm very happy to see it move up more or less gradually. will get much better overall of a move and a sustainable move if it executes in that manner. Excellent. So, and then sort of wrapping up on the investment side, we'll talk about your letter in a second, but for the individual investor who's looking to initiate silver exposure, this is sort of a a 101 type question, but how do you divide the vehicles that are available and how would you advise folks to start building a silver position? I've always told people before you buy gold stocks, you want to initiate your gold position because gold is gold and the stocks are stocks and so you want to do it. You first you got to get your gold position and then you can start to move. But it doesn't really work that way with silver, does it? Well, it does for me. I mean, uh, any premium member, paid member, uh, the first thing they are asked to do is read how to use the mortgage report. And in that report, the first thing I say is what you just outlined. Before you start a meal portfolio, you need the real metal. And I talk about both gold and silver. And I give guidelines like the older you are, the more you should actually favor gold over silver. It's an establishment metal. The banks buy it. It's worldwide recognized and it's a less volatile market. But you should have some of both. And so I give that guidance once this amount is established. again guidance then I say now you can move into the equity side and the equity side we divide it into these categories so 70 before it goes 70% is suggested to go into top tier cashrich unad mining companies primarily the royalty and streaming companies and here's why and then I give an outline for that then I go down to the mid-tier junior producers and speculative positions speculative positions being money you can afford to lose And if you follow our guidance, you're going to do pretty well. And we have outperformed in the equity side over the metal itself by far. On aggregate, you can't. You can outperformed somewhat like the HUI and the XAU have outperform the metal itself this year, but there's been years that the metals outperform those indices. Follow my guidance. you're going to outperform, but you have to be selective and pick the right companies, which we have very few in the top tier, like six. And when someone becomes a new member, I do a halfhour consult with them, explaining where we are uh in aggregate on the Morgan report, what's performing best for us right now, and why it is. So I give them a little bit of guidance there as well so they get started on the right foot because a lot of people that have never bought a financial newsletter based on money metals and mining get the mis idea that all I have to do is buy a bunch of penny junior stocks and we're going to get rich. There is a time that will take place, but it's a very select time frame and you better be timed perfectly and you better not get too greedy and get in and out very quickly. So that's a very specialized specialized field within a specialized field, but it can be done, but it's extremely rare. I tell people all the time, just because someone's told you about a stock that has gold in the stock name doesn't mean has any connection to gold or will ever successfully mine an ounce of anything. So, uh, I have a tendency to encourage people to focus near the top. In gold, there is this I call it a negative survivorship bias. Meaning you may not want to focus on say the top 10 names like the barracks and the new months and the gold fields and Kimro because it's so hard to replace reserves but there's that sweet spot just below the top uh where there are a lot of emerging one mine companies that are likely to be acquired by the big guys which is really a sweet spot. Do you agree with that? Oh, there. Well, I mean, Gold Corp was our number one pick for years and it outperformed Berkshire Hathaway for like 12 years in a row. And for my conservative investors, they just made a bundle on it. And what I loved about it at the beginning when Rob McCuin was the CEO was uh they would had not only one of the best gold mines in the world, they were stockpiling gold in their own vault. So someone had a one-stop shop that could buy what we outlined physical metal and an equity at the same time. So you had the gold and a golden goose. I refer to gold mines as like the golden goose. Would you rather buy the gold or would you rather buy the goose that lays the golden egg? And you should have both. But nonetheless, so that was one that's been bought out now. But um yeah, there and I agree. We don't have too many. We have two gold royalty companies that outperform those gold companies you mentioned by a long shot and that's the where you should put your big money again big money goes into big companies but best ones for return and then uh we move down the sector from there and we've gotten lucky on the junior side at the beginning of the Morgan report when I started you know more than 25 years ago but honestly I've not had the hot hand on the junior junior minors in a long time. It's extremely difficult to be good at it. And um again, there are times you can load up on the juniors and do well. We just haven't hit that time yet. And talking about this negative survivorship bias when I started focusing on gold in 2001. I think Pneumont was doing 7.1 million ounces. And I don't follow it that closely, but I think they'll do 56 57 this year. And that's only because they bought Gold Corp and New Crest, which uh That's right. Yeah. Which I would not want to be a big minor like your outline. Just too difficult to replace reserves as you just said. I'm just backing you up 100%. I really think again there is a sweet spot there, especially on the gold side. Silver's a little different, but you know, I actually told my investors early on, I haven't done it in a long time. If you're really conservative and just want to go along for the ride, you know, buy BHP. And from the time I suggested that for, you know, wealthy investors, conservative, low risk, high reward, they got a 10 bagger out. Now, that was years ago, and I'm not saying you're going to get a 10 bagger out of it again, but you know, put a million dollars and, you know, five years later, it's a 10 million. You're pretty happy. [Music] Silver has been in a structural deficit for 5 years now, which basically means that demand for silver exceeds supply. So, in order to build our electric vehicles and our solar panels and our consumer electronics, we actually aren't mining enough new silver to do that every year. So, we have to use existing stockpiles and, you know, basic supply and demand. When when supply exceeds demand, price has to go up to compensate. So I think that's the primary driver and it's only starting to be the case that investors are remembering that silver is money as well. So you can hold it as an investment or as a savings vehicle depending on your perspective. So that's starting to come into play and that's also helping to push up the price. Uh but I think it's going to go a lot further in the uh coming years. You know it's it's sort of right at that spot where it's checking a lot of boxes for people and throw the weaker dollar in there. uh you know people thinking about a Fed rate cut uh and it seems to be a sweet spot. So if you think it's going higher, what is your upside target? Well, sometimes we can think about the price of precious metals, whether it's gold or silver. You know, if we measure it in dollars, it it's not just how much people want those particular metals. It's also how much do they not want the dollar. Uh so a lot of times it's really the value of the dollar falling, not so much the value of the metal rising. So if the dollar falls in purchasing power and investors don't want to hold it, there's sort of no upside limit to the price of any asset. Um but I think more realistically, if we think in terms of real real terms here, I think the price of silver easily is going to hit triple digits in the next two to three years. It could be 300, could be 600 an ounce. Um and there's precedent for that. It's it's not unprecedented. It's not coming out of nowhere. I think the bull market we're in is analogous to that of the 1970s. And at that point, we had a 7 and 12x move in a single year. So 7 1/2x in a single year. I think we could get that. Probably not in the current year. Maybe maybe about two years out. Um but if that happens and we're starting at $50 an ounce at that point, going up 8x is 400 an ounce silver. So that's not crazy. That's not unprecedented. that's actually in line with history. Yeah, it sounds I I can see why you want to kind of quantify that because it does sound like an extreme move. It sounds like a meme stock really and you're talking about something like silver which as you say, you know, some people are thinking about as the safe haven, but it is important to put into context um longtime commodity watcher Rick Rule was talking about silver. got a lot of questions at his annual conference in Florida recently and reminded everyone that when silver takes over leadership in in a precious metals bull market, it can be really really dramatic and parabolic something. Yeah, absolutely. So, I think we're going to see that again. And like I said before, the best analogy here is what happened in the 1970s. So in 1979, silver moved from about $6 to48 $49 depending how you look at it. So 8x in about a year. So I think we're going to see something like that. Um you know silver becomes or silver yeah silver becomes unloved and ignored and forgotten for decades and then all of the sudden everyone remembers it and uh it it takes off to the moon uh more impressive than gold ever does. And something like a meme stock or even like Bitcoin, it just goes completely vertical, catches a lot of people off guard and uh you know it's limited in supply. There's only so much of it out there. So when you have an increasing number of people chasing a dwindling pile of an asset, the price goes vertical. A lot of Yeah. So if investors want to participate, are we talking about what's the best way to express that or what are the options? Talk. Let's talk about the options and then you can tell me what you prefer. Yeah, there's a lot of options. I think the bread and butter is holding physical. Um, so if you're going to take something like gold, you know, starting with physical makes a lot of sense. With silver, I think it also makes a lot of sense. However, for a lot of people, it does become that speculative sort of gambly part of their portfolio. I know we talk about gold and sometimes silver as being a safe haven, but for a lot of investors that's not the case. It is a more speculative portion of their portfolio. So, if you are looking for an 8x move, um you know, you shouldn't use that with your your core holdings. That should be supplemental. Uh and so you can take physical, but there's a cost of doing that. You know, shipping charges, custody charges, um insurance, that kind of thing. And so it might be simpler and cheaper to buy an ETF or any of those um paper products or digital products. Um so that's an option as well. However, there's sort of a trade-off, which is that the primary benefit of holding precious metals typically is that no one's in charge of them except you. So, no one is in charge of gold or in charge of silver. There's no CEO. There's no one setting the interest rate of gold or anything like that. Um, but if you but if you do buy through an ETF, then all of the sudden you have all those centralized parties um from the custodian, you know, who whoever your broker is, uh even your internet service provider. I mean, there's all those layers of of uh centralized companies that could either get in the way or add friction to the process when you're buying or when you're selling. You know, you could have a power outage and not be able to sell right at the peak right when you want to. Um but of course, if you have physical, you can you could go to um a coin shop in person or something to sell. So, there's trade-offs to everything. Um there's no one right answer. You just sort of have to think about what your goals are as an investor and which risks you're willing to take on. I love that because if you are somebody who is thinking of understanding why you have something in your portfolio maybe is is the sort of best um way to think about this best framework because if you are someone who's looking at this as a store of value as a safe haven as a diversification either away from dollar assets or fiat assets or just diversification away from equities you realize you have a lot of US equities in your portfolio and you're you want to get some diversification then it sounds like you're saying physical might be something that you want to talk to your advisor about. But if you are somebody who sees this as one of these, you know, kind of parabolic commodity moves, you want to try to get a little exposure to it, then maybe something that's more liquid that you can act on quickly and have a little bit more sort of flexibility with is is a better way to do this. If you That's exactly right. So, if you are buying it for the long term and you plan on holding it 10, 20, 50 years in some cases, physical makes a lot of sense. Um, but if you are just trying to capitalize on uh a short quick move in the next six to 12 months, probably an ETF or something digital would be more appropriate for you. So, yeah, it's uh you know, there's a wide range of choices for different types of investors. Yeah, really really understanding your time frame it sounds like is important. Um, and these are the kinds of questions, by the way, you want to be talking to an adviser about, especially if you have not played in the commodity space before. Um, it's a little bit different. It works a little bit different. there's some considerations. So, make sure you're talking to somebody about that. If you want a free review, go to wealthy.comfree. Um, and uh the network of advisors, there'll be somebody there who can perhaps begin to guide you or at least uh help you think about the questions you want to ask. So, another question that comes up a lot, Alan, is uh mining stocks because a lot of people are more more comfortable with equities. It's just where they've been. What about miners in this? Yeah. So in a precious metals bull market I think about it in three phases. First the price of gold moves then the price of silver moves and then the price of the mining stocks move and each successive move it obviously takes more time but then the move is even bigger. So u mining stocks have been kind of crushed lately. Um everyone's wondering when are they going to move and I think it's the answer is soon right after silver continues moving. So, uh, year to date, silver is a better performer than gold or bitcoin even. And of course, it's it's blowing away the stock market. Uh, so I expect that to continue for silver. And, you know, any day now, um, I expect the mining stocks to continue. So, that's sort of the last last leg of the bull market. And, uh, it's it's the most spectacular in price. If investors do not have exposure yet, there's always a feeling like, oh, it's too late. Like, if we're talking about it, it's already too late. Is that true? I don't think so. um because you know we we ordinarily talk about precious metals and so forth. So it's not out of the norm for us to do so. Uh when you find other YouTubers or media outlets that don't talk about finance and all of the sudden they're saying, "Oh, have you guys seen the price of gold and silver that then it might start being too late." Um but for channels that ordinarily talk about it, it's not surprising. And if we're just getting going, if we're just getting if if you think it could go triple digits, it sounds like there's there's room to run. These things move quickly though, don't they? So when talk to me a little bit about these commodity rallies, do they have So they're very violent on the upside. Do they have staying power or is this quick? Because I don't know, you know, when we think about something like oil, higher prices, you know, eventually um, you know, solve the resolve themselves, right? You have enough people start to participate in it. Um and if it becomes too high then demand falls you you it becomes unreachable and so they they tend to sort of have blowout tops and then mean revert pretty quickly. Is that the case in in metals as well or again because of the interesting dynamics of where we are with weakening currencies and some of the other issues? Might it look different this time? Yeah, it's a great question and I think a lot of investors are used to stocks which have an interesting dynamic. you know, as a risk asset, they tend to see their highest growth early on and then they level off. So, if you think of a company that's a startup, there's a lot of room to um have a lot of gains quickly and then as you become a larger company, it sort of levels off. You can keep growing, you just can't grow as quickly. And so, you get the biggest move early and then it levels off. What's interesting about precious metals is it goes the other way. You get small moves early on and then you get the big move at the end. And that creates an interesting psychology for a lot of people because when they see a move like silver has had 33% year-to date, they they think to themselves, "Oh, I missed the big move of 33%. Now what's coming are those smaller moves. Now I'm only going to get 20% or 10% or 7%." That's what they think. But in precious metals, it goes the opposite way. So after that 33% move, you have confirmation we're in a bull market. then you're going to get a 100% move in a year or 700% move in a year like we saw in the 1970s. So it's absolutely not too late. We're forming that base that is like absolutely obviously confirming we are in a bull market and the biggest move is going to come at the end. I do not think this time is different. I think this time is the same. It's just that precious metals are fundamentally different from stocks. Great great way to look at it. So, do you have to believe the global economy is on solid footing to get behind silver uh because of the industrial exposure? Because, you know, there have been and they've been wrong, but there have been people looking for a recession. I think we're going on four years now. Um it hasn't really materialized because of all the fiscal stimulus we've had, but there are still people who believe that we are we do have rougher times coming. Um and even if it's not a outright recession, we're sort of maybe in for subpar growth, at least in the United States. uh does that how does that sort of macroeconomic fundamental story fit into the silver picture is yeah another great question and I kind of love the answer here that I'm about to give um because it doesn't matter it really doesn't matter which is sort of a be beautiful thing about silver whether we're in an expansion or a recession because of the way everything is lining up right now it's going to be good for silver either way so let me explain if we are in an expansion and the economy is doing great there are so many products that use silver from electric vehicles, solar panels, consumer electronics, you name it. Silver is probably the most useful metal on the periodic table. So, if we're in in an expansion, demand for silver is going to continue. However, if we're in a recession, something very interesting is going to happen. Two things. First, we get closer to war, which is obviously not a good thing. Um, but the war industry, the military-industrial complex uses a lot of silver as well. All the military equipment. Uh, a lot of bombs use silver. A lot of all those technologies use silver, drones, and so forth. So, even if we're in a recession, there's there's a demand for silver. And what's interesting is most of the silver that's mined does not come from dedicated silver mines. Most of the silver that's mined, about twothirds of it, comes as a byproduct from other mines like copper mines, zinc mines, even gold mines. So, if we do go into a recession, there's going to be less demand for copper. You know, you can think pipes, um, zinc, gold, all that stuff. All these other base metals are not going to be mined as much because we're in a recession. And that means we won't get as much silver as a byproduct. So, it's absolutely fascinating in my opinion that if we're in a recession or an expansion, it doesn't really matter. There's tremendous demand for silver either way and the supply just simply isn't going to come online. So, it's super bullish for silver. [Music] I think we're still heading higher. Um, that's the bottom line. I don't think we're we haven't hit that um insane, you know, we talked about uh exponential type of um share prices yet. Um the gold and silver prices are clearly moving in the right direction. Um and the equities are now starting to respond to it. Um but we've got a lot further to go. There's we're just starting to see news articles talking about the generalist investor. um you know, your typical individual um especially in the States beginning to pay attention to precious metal equities and that's been completely almost negligible to zero. Um and now we're starting to get people paying attention um people thinking that or just invested in in tech stocks and uh the large cap on on the NASDAQ that are now saying, "Oh, well, let's look at some gold stocks." Um so that's just starting and Rick Ro likes to say that if you can get up to a traditional level mean level of like 3% of a generalist um having that in their portfolio up from like zero to 0.5 up that's just you can do the math I mean that's a 6x type of increase in buying capacity on the retail side that could be potentially buying precious metal equities. So we are at at just starting to get indications that that's occurring now. So in say the past couple of years, it would be fair to say that investors that have been interested in SCP's deal flow have been have a tendency to have been directed managers like gold managers like a John Hathaway and hedge funds that are focused on the sector and certain uh private equity investors say in London. But uh the retail investor really hasn't been present over the past couple of years. Isn't that the case? We'll be past decade um especially in the US. You'll see that Canadians are more comfortable, certain um countries are more comfortable that Australians are more comfortable investing in gold and and mining equities um because a big part of our indices are in that space. So, uh, Canadian or Australian have been investing in this area for a lot longer. Um, and are more comfortable. So, their allocation is typically much higher. Um, but even then, um, you know, Canadian or Aussies have been investing in other in other sectors and now they're returning in full force higher in as as they should be where they and your of course uh, focusing on Canadian investors. we'll be able to bridge that gap uh hopefully at some time, you know, when the SCP Wealthon joint venture uh is approved by FINRA, but we're awaiting our approvals. That'd be fun to get some attention down in the United States. But in terms of the Canadian investors that you're uh representing and dealing with, you've noticed uh started to notice an uptick in sort of family office and individual investors. Yes, very much so. Um, and it's not just Canada, it's international as well. Um, so out of Europe, um, but the family offices have been a new sector or a new a new buyer into the space. Um, where they've been traditionally quite conservative and but now they realize that it's important to have an allocation to to gold and to silver and that's been a big increase in the last 18 months. Yeah. And it's not it's not letting up either. it's just increasing and just to give people uh you know a parameter so Nvidia spoiled everybody right because it goes up every day and it's 4.4 four trillion on all that. But when you get into the real world, you know, if you make 50% during a year, uh, you know, on a stock and the stock market, that's a pretty damn good return, right? But in the gold sector given the leverage of the beta to bullion and especially in the part of the sector that you guys deal with. Um while you obviously you know past performance is no prediction of future performance and all of those disclaimers. Can you give us a general idea of you know what's a possible return? What's the top return? what's the range of returns that you're seeing in some of these deals in the current environment coming? So the range of returns um within our sector can be like in the last 18 months on the low side would be 50%. On the on the high side 400%. Um, and as you could imagine, and I was just looking at a position, um, a large position that I have on my uh, in my book of business, and um, we we bought the position, uh, two years ago as a unit financing. Um, and that position is now up seven and a half times um, in value because it came as a unit. So, I don't know if your investors are familiar with um buying placements, but often when you buy a placement, you get a share and you'll get a half warrant or a full warrant. And if the stock um does well, those half warrants or full warrants become extremely valuable and really sweeten the the type of return. So, in this case, the underlying was up four and a half times. Um but that warrant kicking in made a 7x return and it's still we still hold the position and um again more really good fundamental results today and the stock was up another 15% today alone through so what's just what sector is it is that a gold company that's a gold um latestage um developer that will be in mine in um probably 18 to 24 months here in Mhm. And uh are the warrants are you still holding them in warrant form or have you exercised those? We haven't exercised them yet. Um we'll probably start to exercise them. They expire out um in August of 26. So we have lots of time to do that. But might be nice to the stock must be significantly above the exercise price. Correct. The exercise price is 70 cents. The stock is trading at 270. Gotcha. Okay. So, it's $2 in. So, does the company need that money? Do they want people to do it? No, but they're well financed. They don't need it. It's their upside. Um, but the company is doing a major drill program. So, they don't need this. They're funded. And if they do need to raise money, they can also do um they can do a flow through or they can do regular financing. Yep. And we all know Rick Rule's number one rule is to get a warrant. Um he's been talking about warrants for two decades and points out that's the difference between a great return and a sup super return. True. But there is um I think there is some advice to give your audience that if you've got a full warrant and I know I just Rick will disagree with this but if you have a full warrant that's good for five years um that's a little bit too good. So um there's warrants are often looked at sweetener and if the sweetener it may not be the best company. Is that what you mean? That's what I'm saying. The sweetener system high too rich. Um, usually you would get a half warrant good for two years, not a fiveyear warrant for a full warrant. Got it. So, half a warrant for a couple of years, uh, limited visibility, good idea. Full warrant for as long as you want, bad idea. I I think that's my my take. Yes. It's just too uh too much. And Yeah. Now, uh, you and you deal with Canadian investors currently. Yes. But uh if you if you were licensed in the US, which we're trying to accomplish, can US investors participate in those placements with the warrant? Yes, they can. Yeah, they can. Are there limitations on selling or liquidation or holding period? There is. There we might legend that's put on private placements and it's a six-month um hold and then you have to what's called scrub the legend in order to be in a position to sell the security. Mhm. And that takes some time to uh to remove that legend. So it's in Canada typically there's a fourmonth hold um on the private placement. In the US it's a six-month um and then the legend removal process. When you mentioned the scrubbing is that through the transfer agent or through the issuer or how does that get taken off? So there are a few steps in that process and so that's uh done usually through uh through clearance. Um yeah and it has to go back to the issuer as well and it can take a month or it's take months and it depends you have to have all the different parties cooperating and and willing to do it and respond in a timely manner. It's thirsting. Um and uh in terms of of you know how far this market has gone um are you getting nervous yet or how do you stay calm or you know what are you looking for on gold and silver? What what do you expect for the next 6 to 12 months? Well, I sort of touched on it. Uh I think that we're, as I said last time we met, I said we're in the second or third inning. Um I think we might be in the fourth inning now, but I think we've got a lot of game to play. And um I think a good indicator of that is what I mentioned was is the generalist investor. Um they're not they're not here yet. Um not here at all. But when you have the generalist investor um talking like you're a taxi driver saying, "Oh, I just bought this great gold stock. Um yeah, like they did back in the tech boom in 99." Um then I think you've got the makings of a bubble. We aren't even there yet. You're you're getting some, you know, um business news channels talking about gold and they're falling as they should. They have to follow all the different sectors, but you we're not there yet. We're not we don't have the generalists. Don't forget to sign up for a free portfolio review with one of our endorsed investment partners at wealthon.comfree. With markets hitting all-time highs, now is a great time to stress test your strategy and be prepared for what comes next. Thank you all for watching. We'll see you again next time. [Music]
Silver Hits All-Time Highs! Why Top Experts Say This Is Just the Beginning
Summary
Transcript
If you're looking for a simple, secure way to invest and own physical gold and silver, visit our sister company, Hardass Assets Alliance, at hardassetsallalliance.com. That's hardassallalliance.com. I'm trying to figure out how much you think silver and gold are connected. You seem to think that I believe that you think they are fairly highly connected. So the question is you know what's the current setup in silver? Yeah. So let's bring let's start dealing with silver uh more directly now. Um the macro picture is incredibly bullish. So with everything I've said about demand possible destroying events, the trickiness of September and October and all of that narratives long run both these guys going up in investment high probability debasement debt collapse everything. That's where I stand. short this that was mainly a shortened medium, you know, next week and a couple of months to the year end if we had a drama. Um, so most people are not on the worried about what it does to December. They're worried about where it'll be two years from now, 3 years, 5 years from now. Uh, you're all golden on those ones on both of these and silver will eventually be an outperformer. However, we have to also technically notice we met a couple of targets on silver. So again for people there will be some people watching this and saying do I buy today and or and god forbid be careful out there some people that say should I take a leverage long position today and hope to make money by next week. I'm not positively disposed to those people that are on the short term that may be using leverage or people that want to buy a sizable lump sum today. I think you might get an opportunity to get it a little bit cheaper both silver and gold. But the the the macro of this particular structure is absolutely bullish. Um traditional technical analysts will give you the usual cup and handle uh narrative like that. Uh and again just as I highlight on the short term, these are shooting stars. Uh that means you've been pushed back down twice. And in this current month, you're having a smaller shooting star inside the previous one. So, I'm not sure if those candles are that well visible. Let me get rid of my overlay draw. But that points to not chronic ones, but it points to shortterm. You might get a couple of extra ounces a little cheaper lower down at some point. So, it's not a whale in massive put your whole life savings today in and it's not a leverage trade long right now. Um, but it is on a bigger time frame. I will highlight something else and I think this is part of what they will push back against. If we go for a quarter, so this is a threemon chart and I'm pulling it through again. I want to just highlight currently where you were at yesterday and I think it's just changed today where you were at yesterday. If we had closed the quarter, which only happens uh what's it? Uh September, end of September. So you need the rest of August and all of them. you were higher at any candle body level than any time before. So we have now already given that up. You can see that dotted line is a tiny bit below that close there. Yesterday if we were having that discussion you were higher than that that and that and you can see the second half ease back that is taking place as well. So, I think the quarter, they really don't want you to have a high all-time high quarterly close. Remember these $50 amounts, they were wicks in a quarterly that you never held for 3 months. You came right the way back down. So, it's quite important to remember that the clothes for that candle over there in the 1980s. Many of the people watching that wouldn't have been born and I wore a lot younger man's clothes back then. I was still in school. Um the open there is 3775. We were actually 38 and the highest candle here which is the open on that one is 30 open open is 3765 and the close on that one was uh 3765. So we've actually been sitting at the the three classic highs, the current, the 2011 and the 1980. We've actually been at a quarterly high point if we closed and I think we fall below that. So I think we right now short-term no you're going to get a little bit cheaper sometimes with big macro this is such a big time frame it's a quarterly time frame this taking us back to 1980 and the 70s um sometimes with a head uh cup and handle that when the handle is as big as it is it don't forget this is running us 2011 to 25 you get another smaller fractal handle the handle gets a baby handle if that makes sense and you fractalize again. So you could have that little pullback. It won't go anywhere near as deep, but it'll consume some time and come back up. So you're going to get a multiple triggering event. We talk about it. We did it with gold once, twice, three times. The fourth time a lady, that's your break. Um so it's kind of like you get rejected three times and then the fourth time um you've got your date. Uh and we're at the third time here. So I sense not quite yet. Trigger firing time for the silver market could go uh lower a little bit. That's not a bare call, by the way. This is a technician watching when's the best time to put his next lumpsum in uh in terms of this market and you could just find yourself uh pulling back a bit. Have I answered it sufficiently or do you have any other questions on that? Well, I actually have a whole list of specific questions on how I thought the HV app worked, but we don't we don't need to necessarily pound them all through to you now. We may have to come back and do a more detailed uh analysis of the model uh in the future. But let me ask this general question. I'm sure you're aware of the slingshot interpretation of silver and how it uh moves versus gold. There are certainly a lot of people who are in the camp that silver moves later than gold, but you know, when it breaks out, it accelerates. And 39, I'm I'm not sure where that shows up on all of your technical analysis, but just to a rookie looking at 39, it seems like a pretty big uh level. And so if we trade at 40, are you in the camp that you know, silver's due for a real slingshot move? Uh yes yes yes I do. Um there's a couple uh of things you were asking. You were asking about the 39 level and I think with that quarterly close discussion that 37.65 37 12 to 39 range generally at the moment is being uh pushed back against somewhat. It's not being it's not being successfully rejected actually and I think some of the fundamentals could probably be leading into that. Um, in terms of our you may also mentioned the HVF method which is three impulses and a squeeze in volatility. We do still have a draw here that hasn't fully made its target but did trigger um and that is the three impulses and the squeeze in volatility. So when you introduced uh you missed the funneling word which was hunt volatility funnel, you actually get squeezed into like a protein shake almost into the funneling and then you break and we broke uh we made our first interim target on a wick. We pulled back which is typical target response. Then we made the second interim target over here. Both done quite soon and then you've been grinding higher. It's a little bit like a rising wedge. Uh, and we've got a lot of time to make this target. You'll see these vertical lines tell us our time stops. Um, so you could still have a fall back down out of the rising wedge and that two shooting stars, a little bit of a pullback. I I'm not even saying as far as 32. It doesn't have to be that far. Could be a bit further. You could pull back like that and then end up running the 41. Um, the question is, will we ever get for this quarter a 41 close? And I'm not sure necessarily I can say that. Will that all happen in the next six weeks? Possible. So, we could go down first because I'm cautioning on the short term. You probably could get a better price on the longer term and it might not be that long. You know, this could all happen in the next week or two with a bit of a yen carry trade like August last year, tail end of August last year. Uh or the British debt situation. We get a little bit of and then we you next thing you know we are going back up. But you could also pull back a little harder and even revisit the funnel. I don't think so. That was a long way ago. That's, you know, that's extreme. But don't forget, we traded on spot. Not that you could buy 11, I think $11 at co. It was either 11 or 14. We can check that now. Um, you could forget about buying it at that price um with premium. So, let's just find the 2020. What was the low there? Yep, it was actually 11. But you could only buy I think for $14 something. Um and that was a great buy as well. So even if we get a drama of an event that's a little spill um that can happen. Uh so it's possible but for this pattern to win out you can't run that stop. So I don't think the move's that big. You have a pullback and then we go and we finish the 41 run which will be a great close and then it sets us up for okay can we go test 50? probably get rejected because we've been rejected before. But that'll be the third time, the fourth time a lady we break. And once we through 50, that fourth time pass, which I still think we've got to go visit for a third time first, that is just open territory. That's when I think actually triple digits comes rather quickly then. Um, and there there is some real fancyful I almost become a moonboy in terms of my bullishness because that's open territory. And that again will be dollar debasement, but it'll also be the fundamentals of unoptanium, which we're already encountering in platinum that we're not far off from having in silver. By the way, unoptanium is a great word. Uh, especially if you have a South African accent. A little bit difficult for me. But so if we're going to reduce this for those again following along trying to pick out a few important numbers, is there a number or two you'd highlight? In other words, you just mentioned uh 40 is important and then 50 means probably a hundred. What about on the downside? What what are the number negative numbers we should be looking for or not looking for but we should be aware of if they occur? Well, that would come down to if we have an event similar to uh CV19. Um, and that would be a very thin trade and I would imagine a lot of banks would try to get out of shorts if they ever successfully got that same level of spill that we had there to happen now. um to make that handle to the handle. Uh I would imagine they would be very well served getting out of any derivative short positions as best they can there because I think that would that's going to be a real problem. I mean you think of solid state batteries that will be be charging in a fraction of the time running twice three times longer. If they want all this battery technology which I think they do they want to track and trace us everywhere. They want us in battery cars. uh the more reason I'm going to buy diesel ones. But you know that point aside um the the performance of those were going to require just the 20% market take in normal batteries of solid state batteries would take 96% of mind annually supply. So I mean they really just don't have enough silver for all the technology use uses that they uh have for it. So, I would actually prefer to talk about the the upsides once we pass 50. I don't think uh the downsides are exceptional if you've been a patient stacker for a long time. And I imagine I'm talking to quite a few long-suffering patient stackers in the silver market. Um I think the most of the bad error is behind you. This October, Wealthian's putting the spotlight on silver with expert interviews, deep analysis, and a special in-depth report from our partners at SCP Resource Finance. To receive this report and other exclusive benefits, you can sign up to become an accredited investor with Wealthon at wealth.com/acredited or by finding the link in the description below. Speaking of silver, Wealthon will be on the ground in Toronto for the SCP Resource Finance second global silver conference happening on Thursday, October 23rd. Legendary investor Eric Sprat headlines the event alongside 15 silver mining companies presenting their top projects. It's a must attend for anyone serious about investing in silver. Tickets, both in person and virtual, are now available. Find out more in the description below. [Music] So once we push past 50 and we maintain it for I'd say a few weeks, two or three weeks, every close is above 50 in US dollar terms for you know 15 trading days then we've established a new limit and that overall resistance that's been there for decades, you'll become support. And once that takes place, whether it's three weeks or three months, once the market recognizes that, we're off to the races. Now, what I think is it'll stall out at 50, uh, reconsolidate and blast through it shortly thereafter. Many of the, uh, let's say the bears in some can't get us past 50. I told you blah blah blah blah. You silver bulls are wrong. Da da da. That goes on for a few days or a few weeks. All of a sudden it's at 60. And now we don't know what we're going to because once you get to a new high in a market, nothing's more bullish than a new high because everyone that owns it going to hold it. I don't want to sell it because I don't know how high it's going to go. And I've heard, you know, even David Morgan say it's going to go to 100. We're only at 60. I'm not selling. So that means any I mean one ounce of new buying pressure will move the market higher because no one's selling. That's what happened with GameStop. The reason those shorts got clobbered so bad is they're kind of their lead guy was saying not selling yet. So everybody was holding and there isn't anything in the market to to buy back and the shorts have to buy back to close out their position and there's no sales. What do you buy if it doesn't exist? M so the same thing or similar thing could happen in the silver market and now that retail uh holds as I said you know over two billion ounces of the 3.6 six and the funds hold you know 6 of that or 600 million. So you add those two together, you got about um you know the lion's share of the silver market is held by retail, not by the banks, bullion banks. Then they're actually in control. Although it may not appear I it could be in control. I guess when it gets down to the physical market, they are in control. When it gets down to the derivatives market, which are still playing in the banks have the advantage, right? So, your comment about when it goes above 50, there won't be any sellers made me smile because this morning I was reading a Reuters article about last week's movement. You know, obviously we had big moves on Friday and we're at or near new highs and the reporter actually made me smile. He said, "Stocks are going higher because there's so many buyers and there's so many buyers because stocks are going higher." So, it's just going to be that way for a while. But, I thought that was pretty funny. So between here and 50 uh I've heard you talk about the stairst step pattern that silver is displaying. Is there any you know 39 seems to be a pretty important number. Is there anything important between 39 and 50 that uh viewers may want to focus on? Yeah. I mean if you don't mind me taking just a moment see I pull up a silver chart really quick. It really isn't. I mean, okay. Because I heard a bit of talk about you talked about 44, 46, 48, but it was a couple of months ago and you were sort of talking about a different topic. But I wondered if those were trigger points. Not really. I mean, they're so small in duration you can blast through them with any substantial buying. Okay. Basically through the 35 barrier. And why are we playing at 39? You can make arguments for all kinds of things. Primarily, it's the algorithms. It's the way it's set up in the futures markets where these bots are doing these trades back and forth all day long every day, every market trading day. And because of that, it's going to keep there. I'm really happy that it's stairstepping up. What we really don't want to see is a great big spike high that just takes a matter of a few weeks. Because if that's the case and we go parabolic then there is no support level. It's just an up and down situation and that will not be supportive. Whereas if we get a stair step and we get a base and move up and another base and move up that is the way to build a market that has some substance to it. So I'm very happy to see it move up more or less gradually. will get much better overall of a move and a sustainable move if it executes in that manner. Excellent. So, and then sort of wrapping up on the investment side, we'll talk about your letter in a second, but for the individual investor who's looking to initiate silver exposure, this is sort of a a 101 type question, but how do you divide the vehicles that are available and how would you advise folks to start building a silver position? I've always told people before you buy gold stocks, you want to initiate your gold position because gold is gold and the stocks are stocks and so you want to do it. You first you got to get your gold position and then you can start to move. But it doesn't really work that way with silver, does it? Well, it does for me. I mean, uh, any premium member, paid member, uh, the first thing they are asked to do is read how to use the mortgage report. And in that report, the first thing I say is what you just outlined. Before you start a meal portfolio, you need the real metal. And I talk about both gold and silver. And I give guidelines like the older you are, the more you should actually favor gold over silver. It's an establishment metal. The banks buy it. It's worldwide recognized and it's a less volatile market. But you should have some of both. And so I give that guidance once this amount is established. again guidance then I say now you can move into the equity side and the equity side we divide it into these categories so 70 before it goes 70% is suggested to go into top tier cashrich unad mining companies primarily the royalty and streaming companies and here's why and then I give an outline for that then I go down to the mid-tier junior producers and speculative positions speculative positions being money you can afford to lose And if you follow our guidance, you're going to do pretty well. And we have outperformed in the equity side over the metal itself by far. On aggregate, you can't. You can outperformed somewhat like the HUI and the XAU have outperform the metal itself this year, but there's been years that the metals outperform those indices. Follow my guidance. you're going to outperform, but you have to be selective and pick the right companies, which we have very few in the top tier, like six. And when someone becomes a new member, I do a halfhour consult with them, explaining where we are uh in aggregate on the Morgan report, what's performing best for us right now, and why it is. So I give them a little bit of guidance there as well so they get started on the right foot because a lot of people that have never bought a financial newsletter based on money metals and mining get the mis idea that all I have to do is buy a bunch of penny junior stocks and we're going to get rich. There is a time that will take place, but it's a very select time frame and you better be timed perfectly and you better not get too greedy and get in and out very quickly. So that's a very specialized specialized field within a specialized field, but it can be done, but it's extremely rare. I tell people all the time, just because someone's told you about a stock that has gold in the stock name doesn't mean has any connection to gold or will ever successfully mine an ounce of anything. So, uh, I have a tendency to encourage people to focus near the top. In gold, there is this I call it a negative survivorship bias. Meaning you may not want to focus on say the top 10 names like the barracks and the new months and the gold fields and Kimro because it's so hard to replace reserves but there's that sweet spot just below the top uh where there are a lot of emerging one mine companies that are likely to be acquired by the big guys which is really a sweet spot. Do you agree with that? Oh, there. Well, I mean, Gold Corp was our number one pick for years and it outperformed Berkshire Hathaway for like 12 years in a row. And for my conservative investors, they just made a bundle on it. And what I loved about it at the beginning when Rob McCuin was the CEO was uh they would had not only one of the best gold mines in the world, they were stockpiling gold in their own vault. So someone had a one-stop shop that could buy what we outlined physical metal and an equity at the same time. So you had the gold and a golden goose. I refer to gold mines as like the golden goose. Would you rather buy the gold or would you rather buy the goose that lays the golden egg? And you should have both. But nonetheless, so that was one that's been bought out now. But um yeah, there and I agree. We don't have too many. We have two gold royalty companies that outperform those gold companies you mentioned by a long shot and that's the where you should put your big money again big money goes into big companies but best ones for return and then uh we move down the sector from there and we've gotten lucky on the junior side at the beginning of the Morgan report when I started you know more than 25 years ago but honestly I've not had the hot hand on the junior junior minors in a long time. It's extremely difficult to be good at it. And um again, there are times you can load up on the juniors and do well. We just haven't hit that time yet. And talking about this negative survivorship bias when I started focusing on gold in 2001. I think Pneumont was doing 7.1 million ounces. And I don't follow it that closely, but I think they'll do 56 57 this year. And that's only because they bought Gold Corp and New Crest, which uh That's right. Yeah. Which I would not want to be a big minor like your outline. Just too difficult to replace reserves as you just said. I'm just backing you up 100%. I really think again there is a sweet spot there, especially on the gold side. Silver's a little different, but you know, I actually told my investors early on, I haven't done it in a long time. If you're really conservative and just want to go along for the ride, you know, buy BHP. And from the time I suggested that for, you know, wealthy investors, conservative, low risk, high reward, they got a 10 bagger out. Now, that was years ago, and I'm not saying you're going to get a 10 bagger out of it again, but you know, put a million dollars and, you know, five years later, it's a 10 million. You're pretty happy. [Music] Silver has been in a structural deficit for 5 years now, which basically means that demand for silver exceeds supply. So, in order to build our electric vehicles and our solar panels and our consumer electronics, we actually aren't mining enough new silver to do that every year. So, we have to use existing stockpiles and, you know, basic supply and demand. When when supply exceeds demand, price has to go up to compensate. So I think that's the primary driver and it's only starting to be the case that investors are remembering that silver is money as well. So you can hold it as an investment or as a savings vehicle depending on your perspective. So that's starting to come into play and that's also helping to push up the price. Uh but I think it's going to go a lot further in the uh coming years. You know it's it's sort of right at that spot where it's checking a lot of boxes for people and throw the weaker dollar in there. uh you know people thinking about a Fed rate cut uh and it seems to be a sweet spot. So if you think it's going higher, what is your upside target? Well, sometimes we can think about the price of precious metals, whether it's gold or silver. You know, if we measure it in dollars, it it's not just how much people want those particular metals. It's also how much do they not want the dollar. Uh so a lot of times it's really the value of the dollar falling, not so much the value of the metal rising. So if the dollar falls in purchasing power and investors don't want to hold it, there's sort of no upside limit to the price of any asset. Um but I think more realistically, if we think in terms of real real terms here, I think the price of silver easily is going to hit triple digits in the next two to three years. It could be 300, could be 600 an ounce. Um and there's precedent for that. It's it's not unprecedented. It's not coming out of nowhere. I think the bull market we're in is analogous to that of the 1970s. And at that point, we had a 7 and 12x move in a single year. So 7 1/2x in a single year. I think we could get that. Probably not in the current year. Maybe maybe about two years out. Um but if that happens and we're starting at $50 an ounce at that point, going up 8x is 400 an ounce silver. So that's not crazy. That's not unprecedented. that's actually in line with history. Yeah, it sounds I I can see why you want to kind of quantify that because it does sound like an extreme move. It sounds like a meme stock really and you're talking about something like silver which as you say, you know, some people are thinking about as the safe haven, but it is important to put into context um longtime commodity watcher Rick Rule was talking about silver. got a lot of questions at his annual conference in Florida recently and reminded everyone that when silver takes over leadership in in a precious metals bull market, it can be really really dramatic and parabolic something. Yeah, absolutely. So, I think we're going to see that again. And like I said before, the best analogy here is what happened in the 1970s. So in 1979, silver moved from about $6 to48 $49 depending how you look at it. So 8x in about a year. So I think we're going to see something like that. Um you know silver becomes or silver yeah silver becomes unloved and ignored and forgotten for decades and then all of the sudden everyone remembers it and uh it it takes off to the moon uh more impressive than gold ever does. And something like a meme stock or even like Bitcoin, it just goes completely vertical, catches a lot of people off guard and uh you know it's limited in supply. There's only so much of it out there. So when you have an increasing number of people chasing a dwindling pile of an asset, the price goes vertical. A lot of Yeah. So if investors want to participate, are we talking about what's the best way to express that or what are the options? Talk. Let's talk about the options and then you can tell me what you prefer. Yeah, there's a lot of options. I think the bread and butter is holding physical. Um, so if you're going to take something like gold, you know, starting with physical makes a lot of sense. With silver, I think it also makes a lot of sense. However, for a lot of people, it does become that speculative sort of gambly part of their portfolio. I know we talk about gold and sometimes silver as being a safe haven, but for a lot of investors that's not the case. It is a more speculative portion of their portfolio. So, if you are looking for an 8x move, um you know, you shouldn't use that with your your core holdings. That should be supplemental. Uh and so you can take physical, but there's a cost of doing that. You know, shipping charges, custody charges, um insurance, that kind of thing. And so it might be simpler and cheaper to buy an ETF or any of those um paper products or digital products. Um so that's an option as well. However, there's sort of a trade-off, which is that the primary benefit of holding precious metals typically is that no one's in charge of them except you. So, no one is in charge of gold or in charge of silver. There's no CEO. There's no one setting the interest rate of gold or anything like that. Um, but if you but if you do buy through an ETF, then all of the sudden you have all those centralized parties um from the custodian, you know, who whoever your broker is, uh even your internet service provider. I mean, there's all those layers of of uh centralized companies that could either get in the way or add friction to the process when you're buying or when you're selling. You know, you could have a power outage and not be able to sell right at the peak right when you want to. Um but of course, if you have physical, you can you could go to um a coin shop in person or something to sell. So, there's trade-offs to everything. Um there's no one right answer. You just sort of have to think about what your goals are as an investor and which risks you're willing to take on. I love that because if you are somebody who is thinking of understanding why you have something in your portfolio maybe is is the sort of best um way to think about this best framework because if you are someone who's looking at this as a store of value as a safe haven as a diversification either away from dollar assets or fiat assets or just diversification away from equities you realize you have a lot of US equities in your portfolio and you're you want to get some diversification then it sounds like you're saying physical might be something that you want to talk to your advisor about. But if you are somebody who sees this as one of these, you know, kind of parabolic commodity moves, you want to try to get a little exposure to it, then maybe something that's more liquid that you can act on quickly and have a little bit more sort of flexibility with is is a better way to do this. If you That's exactly right. So, if you are buying it for the long term and you plan on holding it 10, 20, 50 years in some cases, physical makes a lot of sense. Um, but if you are just trying to capitalize on uh a short quick move in the next six to 12 months, probably an ETF or something digital would be more appropriate for you. So, yeah, it's uh you know, there's a wide range of choices for different types of investors. Yeah, really really understanding your time frame it sounds like is important. Um, and these are the kinds of questions, by the way, you want to be talking to an adviser about, especially if you have not played in the commodity space before. Um, it's a little bit different. It works a little bit different. there's some considerations. So, make sure you're talking to somebody about that. If you want a free review, go to wealthy.comfree. Um, and uh the network of advisors, there'll be somebody there who can perhaps begin to guide you or at least uh help you think about the questions you want to ask. So, another question that comes up a lot, Alan, is uh mining stocks because a lot of people are more more comfortable with equities. It's just where they've been. What about miners in this? Yeah. So in a precious metals bull market I think about it in three phases. First the price of gold moves then the price of silver moves and then the price of the mining stocks move and each successive move it obviously takes more time but then the move is even bigger. So u mining stocks have been kind of crushed lately. Um everyone's wondering when are they going to move and I think it's the answer is soon right after silver continues moving. So, uh, year to date, silver is a better performer than gold or bitcoin even. And of course, it's it's blowing away the stock market. Uh, so I expect that to continue for silver. And, you know, any day now, um, I expect the mining stocks to continue. So, that's sort of the last last leg of the bull market. And, uh, it's it's the most spectacular in price. If investors do not have exposure yet, there's always a feeling like, oh, it's too late. Like, if we're talking about it, it's already too late. Is that true? I don't think so. um because you know we we ordinarily talk about precious metals and so forth. So it's not out of the norm for us to do so. Uh when you find other YouTubers or media outlets that don't talk about finance and all of the sudden they're saying, "Oh, have you guys seen the price of gold and silver that then it might start being too late." Um but for channels that ordinarily talk about it, it's not surprising. And if we're just getting going, if we're just getting if if you think it could go triple digits, it sounds like there's there's room to run. These things move quickly though, don't they? So when talk to me a little bit about these commodity rallies, do they have So they're very violent on the upside. Do they have staying power or is this quick? Because I don't know, you know, when we think about something like oil, higher prices, you know, eventually um, you know, solve the resolve themselves, right? You have enough people start to participate in it. Um and if it becomes too high then demand falls you you it becomes unreachable and so they they tend to sort of have blowout tops and then mean revert pretty quickly. Is that the case in in metals as well or again because of the interesting dynamics of where we are with weakening currencies and some of the other issues? Might it look different this time? Yeah, it's a great question and I think a lot of investors are used to stocks which have an interesting dynamic. you know, as a risk asset, they tend to see their highest growth early on and then they level off. So, if you think of a company that's a startup, there's a lot of room to um have a lot of gains quickly and then as you become a larger company, it sort of levels off. You can keep growing, you just can't grow as quickly. And so, you get the biggest move early and then it levels off. What's interesting about precious metals is it goes the other way. You get small moves early on and then you get the big move at the end. And that creates an interesting psychology for a lot of people because when they see a move like silver has had 33% year-to date, they they think to themselves, "Oh, I missed the big move of 33%. Now what's coming are those smaller moves. Now I'm only going to get 20% or 10% or 7%." That's what they think. But in precious metals, it goes the opposite way. So after that 33% move, you have confirmation we're in a bull market. then you're going to get a 100% move in a year or 700% move in a year like we saw in the 1970s. So it's absolutely not too late. We're forming that base that is like absolutely obviously confirming we are in a bull market and the biggest move is going to come at the end. I do not think this time is different. I think this time is the same. It's just that precious metals are fundamentally different from stocks. Great great way to look at it. So, do you have to believe the global economy is on solid footing to get behind silver uh because of the industrial exposure? Because, you know, there have been and they've been wrong, but there have been people looking for a recession. I think we're going on four years now. Um it hasn't really materialized because of all the fiscal stimulus we've had, but there are still people who believe that we are we do have rougher times coming. Um and even if it's not a outright recession, we're sort of maybe in for subpar growth, at least in the United States. uh does that how does that sort of macroeconomic fundamental story fit into the silver picture is yeah another great question and I kind of love the answer here that I'm about to give um because it doesn't matter it really doesn't matter which is sort of a be beautiful thing about silver whether we're in an expansion or a recession because of the way everything is lining up right now it's going to be good for silver either way so let me explain if we are in an expansion and the economy is doing great there are so many products that use silver from electric vehicles, solar panels, consumer electronics, you name it. Silver is probably the most useful metal on the periodic table. So, if we're in in an expansion, demand for silver is going to continue. However, if we're in a recession, something very interesting is going to happen. Two things. First, we get closer to war, which is obviously not a good thing. Um, but the war industry, the military-industrial complex uses a lot of silver as well. All the military equipment. Uh, a lot of bombs use silver. A lot of all those technologies use silver, drones, and so forth. So, even if we're in a recession, there's there's a demand for silver. And what's interesting is most of the silver that's mined does not come from dedicated silver mines. Most of the silver that's mined, about twothirds of it, comes as a byproduct from other mines like copper mines, zinc mines, even gold mines. So, if we do go into a recession, there's going to be less demand for copper. You know, you can think pipes, um, zinc, gold, all that stuff. All these other base metals are not going to be mined as much because we're in a recession. And that means we won't get as much silver as a byproduct. So, it's absolutely fascinating in my opinion that if we're in a recession or an expansion, it doesn't really matter. There's tremendous demand for silver either way and the supply just simply isn't going to come online. So, it's super bullish for silver. [Music] I think we're still heading higher. Um, that's the bottom line. I don't think we're we haven't hit that um insane, you know, we talked about uh exponential type of um share prices yet. Um the gold and silver prices are clearly moving in the right direction. Um and the equities are now starting to respond to it. Um but we've got a lot further to go. There's we're just starting to see news articles talking about the generalist investor. um you know, your typical individual um especially in the States beginning to pay attention to precious metal equities and that's been completely almost negligible to zero. Um and now we're starting to get people paying attention um people thinking that or just invested in in tech stocks and uh the large cap on on the NASDAQ that are now saying, "Oh, well, let's look at some gold stocks." Um so that's just starting and Rick Ro likes to say that if you can get up to a traditional level mean level of like 3% of a generalist um having that in their portfolio up from like zero to 0.5 up that's just you can do the math I mean that's a 6x type of increase in buying capacity on the retail side that could be potentially buying precious metal equities. So we are at at just starting to get indications that that's occurring now. So in say the past couple of years, it would be fair to say that investors that have been interested in SCP's deal flow have been have a tendency to have been directed managers like gold managers like a John Hathaway and hedge funds that are focused on the sector and certain uh private equity investors say in London. But uh the retail investor really hasn't been present over the past couple of years. Isn't that the case? We'll be past decade um especially in the US. You'll see that Canadians are more comfortable, certain um countries are more comfortable that Australians are more comfortable investing in gold and and mining equities um because a big part of our indices are in that space. So, uh, Canadian or Australian have been investing in this area for a lot longer. Um, and are more comfortable. So, their allocation is typically much higher. Um, but even then, um, you know, Canadian or Aussies have been investing in other in other sectors and now they're returning in full force higher in as as they should be where they and your of course uh, focusing on Canadian investors. we'll be able to bridge that gap uh hopefully at some time, you know, when the SCP Wealthon joint venture uh is approved by FINRA, but we're awaiting our approvals. That'd be fun to get some attention down in the United States. But in terms of the Canadian investors that you're uh representing and dealing with, you've noticed uh started to notice an uptick in sort of family office and individual investors. Yes, very much so. Um, and it's not just Canada, it's international as well. Um, so out of Europe, um, but the family offices have been a new sector or a new a new buyer into the space. Um, where they've been traditionally quite conservative and but now they realize that it's important to have an allocation to to gold and to silver and that's been a big increase in the last 18 months. Yeah. And it's not it's not letting up either. it's just increasing and just to give people uh you know a parameter so Nvidia spoiled everybody right because it goes up every day and it's 4.4 four trillion on all that. But when you get into the real world, you know, if you make 50% during a year, uh, you know, on a stock and the stock market, that's a pretty damn good return, right? But in the gold sector given the leverage of the beta to bullion and especially in the part of the sector that you guys deal with. Um while you obviously you know past performance is no prediction of future performance and all of those disclaimers. Can you give us a general idea of you know what's a possible return? What's the top return? what's the range of returns that you're seeing in some of these deals in the current environment coming? So the range of returns um within our sector can be like in the last 18 months on the low side would be 50%. On the on the high side 400%. Um, and as you could imagine, and I was just looking at a position, um, a large position that I have on my uh, in my book of business, and um, we we bought the position, uh, two years ago as a unit financing. Um, and that position is now up seven and a half times um, in value because it came as a unit. So, I don't know if your investors are familiar with um buying placements, but often when you buy a placement, you get a share and you'll get a half warrant or a full warrant. And if the stock um does well, those half warrants or full warrants become extremely valuable and really sweeten the the type of return. So, in this case, the underlying was up four and a half times. Um but that warrant kicking in made a 7x return and it's still we still hold the position and um again more really good fundamental results today and the stock was up another 15% today alone through so what's just what sector is it is that a gold company that's a gold um latestage um developer that will be in mine in um probably 18 to 24 months here in Mhm. And uh are the warrants are you still holding them in warrant form or have you exercised those? We haven't exercised them yet. Um we'll probably start to exercise them. They expire out um in August of 26. So we have lots of time to do that. But might be nice to the stock must be significantly above the exercise price. Correct. The exercise price is 70 cents. The stock is trading at 270. Gotcha. Okay. So, it's $2 in. So, does the company need that money? Do they want people to do it? No, but they're well financed. They don't need it. It's their upside. Um, but the company is doing a major drill program. So, they don't need this. They're funded. And if they do need to raise money, they can also do um they can do a flow through or they can do regular financing. Yep. And we all know Rick Rule's number one rule is to get a warrant. Um he's been talking about warrants for two decades and points out that's the difference between a great return and a sup super return. True. But there is um I think there is some advice to give your audience that if you've got a full warrant and I know I just Rick will disagree with this but if you have a full warrant that's good for five years um that's a little bit too good. So um there's warrants are often looked at sweetener and if the sweetener it may not be the best company. Is that what you mean? That's what I'm saying. The sweetener system high too rich. Um, usually you would get a half warrant good for two years, not a fiveyear warrant for a full warrant. Got it. So, half a warrant for a couple of years, uh, limited visibility, good idea. Full warrant for as long as you want, bad idea. I I think that's my my take. Yes. It's just too uh too much. And Yeah. Now, uh, you and you deal with Canadian investors currently. Yes. But uh if you if you were licensed in the US, which we're trying to accomplish, can US investors participate in those placements with the warrant? Yes, they can. Yeah, they can. Are there limitations on selling or liquidation or holding period? There is. There we might legend that's put on private placements and it's a six-month um hold and then you have to what's called scrub the legend in order to be in a position to sell the security. Mhm. And that takes some time to uh to remove that legend. So it's in Canada typically there's a fourmonth hold um on the private placement. In the US it's a six-month um and then the legend removal process. When you mentioned the scrubbing is that through the transfer agent or through the issuer or how does that get taken off? So there are a few steps in that process and so that's uh done usually through uh through clearance. Um yeah and it has to go back to the issuer as well and it can take a month or it's take months and it depends you have to have all the different parties cooperating and and willing to do it and respond in a timely manner. It's thirsting. Um and uh in terms of of you know how far this market has gone um are you getting nervous yet or how do you stay calm or you know what are you looking for on gold and silver? What what do you expect for the next 6 to 12 months? Well, I sort of touched on it. Uh I think that we're, as I said last time we met, I said we're in the second or third inning. Um I think we might be in the fourth inning now, but I think we've got a lot of game to play. And um I think a good indicator of that is what I mentioned was is the generalist investor. Um they're not they're not here yet. Um not here at all. But when you have the generalist investor um talking like you're a taxi driver saying, "Oh, I just bought this great gold stock. Um yeah, like they did back in the tech boom in 99." Um then I think you've got the makings of a bubble. We aren't even there yet. You're you're getting some, you know, um business news channels talking about gold and they're falling as they should. They have to follow all the different sectors, but you we're not there yet. We're not we don't have the generalists. Don't forget to sign up for a free portfolio review with one of our endorsed investment partners at wealthon.comfree. With markets hitting all-time highs, now is a great time to stress test your strategy and be prepared for what comes next. Thank you all for watching. We'll see you again next time. [Music]