Trader Reveals 'Bubble' Assets; How Does Market Mania End? | Jason Shapiro
Summary
Bubble Concerns: Jason Shapiro identifies potential bubbles in gold and the broader crypto space, excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, due to their lack of intrinsic value and speculative nature.
AI and Market Sentiment: Despite a decrease in searches for an AI bubble, Shapiro suggests that concerns about bubbles remain prevalent among traders and the public, indicating ongoing market anxiety.
Market Dynamics: The discussion highlights the liquidity-driven market, with global central banks providing liquidity, which is seen as a key driver of current asset price increases.
Investment Strategy: Shapiro emphasizes the importance of maintaining discipline and not succumbing to FOMO (fear of missing out), suggesting that investors should focus on long-term strategies rather than short-term gains.
Sector Focus: He suggests that the power supply sector, particularly related to AI development, presents a viable investment opportunity due to its critical role in future technological advancements and national security.
Market Indicators: Shapiro uses the Commitment of Traders data to assess market crowding and determine potential entry and exit points, focusing on risk-reward scenarios rather than attempting to predict market movements.
Global Liquidity Impact: The podcast discusses the potential risks of excessive liquidity, suggesting that if markets eventually reject this approach, it could lead to significant financial instability.
Contrarian View: Shapiro, known for trading against the crowd, remains cautious about current market conditions, indicating that he is currently flat and waiting for clearer investment opportunities.
Transcript
If I'm going to call a bubble, I'll call a bubble in gold. I'll call a bubble and have been calling a bubble forever, much too long, but in in most of the crypto space, right? I mean, you want to talk about something that has, and I'm not talking about Bitcoin. I think if somebody wants to make or Ethereum, you know, these sort of blue chippers, everyone's like, "Oh, it's different this time." It's always the most dangerous words. And that could very well be. Jason Shapiro returns the show. He's a veteran trader who's been featured in Jack Schwagger's book, Unknown Market Wizards. He's the founder of the Credit Market Report. Check out his website, link down below, and check out his work. Check out our prior interview with Jason. He's been pretty much spot on with calling this rally this year. Let's see if now in October is the inflection point for markets. Now that gold is at $4,200, silver is at above 52. Stocks, NASDAQ, S&P, and the NASDAQ are at all-time highs. Welcome back to the show, Jason. Good to see you. >> Good to see you, David. >> You've got a big smile on your face. Clearly, you've been making gains. So, uh, congratulations. Let's take a look at this article here. The bubble in people searching for AI bubble has burst. What that means for the stocks, retail investors fear of an AI bubble appears to have fallen off after spiking the summer. It could mean that stocks are further to balloon before they ultimately top out. The number of US and worldwide web searches for the term AI bubble peaked August 20th and August 21st according to Google Trends. Let's do some verification oursel. Let's go to Google Trends. Jason, I'm going to type in AI bubble. Doesn't appear to be enough data. All right, doesn't matter. All right, let's go to the last 12 months. So, you see it's peaked in the summer and it's kind of waned off. The point of the article is making is that people are searching for bubbles a little bit less than what happened earlier in the summer. Um, and stocks, as you know, have continued to climb up ever since mid August. What do you make of this? >> Uh, what do I make of that particular chart of search and all that? >> I don't know. I mean, maybe they got maybe they got sick of searching for it in August. So, how many times do you have to search for that same thing? I don't Does it does it appear to you though just based on what you've observed that traders and the um general public alike are just a little bit less interested now in the concept of a bubble or less worried should I say >> I don't think so no >> no >> how many of the gu again how many of your guests in the last seven days have have mentioned the word bubble you tell me >> that's true that's true some of my guests are contrarians though like yourself so I I don't know they speak for Everybody else does the retail trading public >> again. How many how many of your guests in the last 15 days have brought up the word bubble? >> That's true. Quite a few. >> Would you say every single one of them? >> Almost. >> Okay. >> Almost. >> Then there we go. Then no one's forgotten about bubble yet in my view. They might say that they want to be contrarian and okay, but come on. It's on TV. It's on the Everything that we see. Everything we hear every day talks about bubble bubble bubble bubble. >> Yeah. And and and you and they talk about bubbles in the context of things that don't have cash flow as well. Stocks have cash flow. You can kind of see if a stock is a bubble if it's generating no cash flow, no earnings whatsoever. But you're looking at things like Bitcoin, gold, silver. They're applying that word to those assets as well. What do you think about that? Are alternative assets in a bubble right now, Jason? >> I don't even know what a bubble is. David, what's the definition of a bubble? And then we can talk about if things are in a bubble. What is a bubble? >> Okay. Do you have uh what are your thoughts? >> The best definition I've heard of for bubble is a bull market that you're not long. >> That's not That's not the technical definition, Jason, but I I get your point. >> I think it is. I mean, >> if you think that all these things are in a bubble, then are you long? >> Well, to this article's point, you can be, I guess, long the market. >> No, I I understand. One could be one could be long the bubble and still think that the bubble's going to get bigger, >> right? It just depends because nobody knows when a bubble's going to pop. But yeah, back to your point, what is a bubble? Um, >> yeah, >> the the textbook definition is just something whose valuations exceed what the fundamentals should tell you. So, if a stock's making $10, a company is making $10 a year and it's trading at a million dollar uh net present value, something's off, right? That's a bubble. >> Okay, but first of all, we have to know what that number is. Is it a million dollar? Is it $900,000? Is it $700,000? Is it $400? >> What's the number? That's right. We only know that in retrospect, clearly, right? Um, and I mean, so AI AI is a bubble. That's what people want to say. I I don't I'm not here to say it's not, okay? I'm here to say I don't know how you know um because we don't know what this thing is going to look like still. You know, is this going to be the single greatest uh invention that mankind has has ever seen and it's going to create all this productivity for for the whole world and you know companies are going to be able to double their earnings with half the costs and and all that. Um because if it's that then we're probably not in a bubble, right? That's probably underappreciated at this point. If it's not that, then certainly we, you know, then things probably are overvalued. Unless someone can tell me which one of those things is going to happen, you know, and what AI is going to look like in 5 years from now, I I don't know how you can determine just like anything, you know, uh is overvalued or undervalued just on paper by by running some spreadsheet. I I can tell you you're not going to determine it by doing what a lot of these people do, which is draw some random freaking, you know, random line through a bunch of price action and say, "Oh, there it is. That proves that it's a bubble." you know like that ain't going to work right. Um >> people use the term >> well we're talking about valuations bubble the other type of bubble that have been used on my show especially concentration bubble some people are concerned about the fact that the S&P is now more than 44 or 45% just tech stocks Nvidia alone accounts for I think 26% of the S&P they're carrying the earnings as well when when when you look at that level of concentration which some people have said is unprecedented does that does that make you want to just stay out of the market that particular market that is or do you not care about >> that? That really doesn't make me want to stay out of the market. But again, I I think that we could go back if the market were to go down a lot for the next 5 years, we could come back to today and say, were there signs in October of 2025 that this market was getting stupid? Right? And certainly we can answer yes, right? plenty of signs um you know companies like whoever Oakllo you know what I mean no revenues and the stocks up whatever 800% this year right um the amount of money that the typical sort of punter has been able to make this year is is much higher than uh one would expect and and and one much higher than what they do overtime that could be considered to be bubblyish. Um there are certainly some signs that that are there. But um it's all contingent to me on two things. One, if we talk about the AI thing, it's all contingent on what is this thing going to look like in in 5 years? And and there's no way to know that. You know what I mean? So basing it on valuations, you know, I don't know. I never know how anybody bases anything on valuations because unless you can tell me what the cash flows are for the next 10, 15, 20 years, um I don't know where you're getting a valuation from. Right. And >> that's true. >> And anyone who tells you they know what cash flows are going to be for the AI thing over the next 1015 years, I think is is fooling themselves, right? Um because it's you know that's what's so interesting about now is the change that's going on is so great therefore the volatility or the variance of of estimates is going to be so great right um so it it's it's certainly an interesting time I think that one thing to consider for those who are in the bubble camp um is the fact just on the AI fact. Let's not forget this is more than just a invention that is supposed to or a movement whatever you want to call it that is supposed to create better future earnings for S&P 500 companies right um this is also uh a national security thing right um you know the the country that that clearly has the lead in AI AI is going to have the lead in national security and everything else. And that's really, I think, what this whole obviously rift between the United States and and China is is all about, right? But if it is in fact a national security thing, which I I don't think is hard to argue that it is, there's no stopping the investment into it, right? There is no when it comes to national security, right? There's no stopping the money flow, right? It's like, you know, Easter Island. These people, you know, they built these ridiculous, you know, statues uh until they ran out of all resources and and went broke, right? But they kept building them because they thought that was the most important thing out there. It's the same thing here. This this M and we see it in every phase of of what's going on here. All of a sudden, you have the United States government investing in in in private companies that are important along the AI chain. We've never seen that really before. You know, we've seen the c the the country bail out some important industries during the crash, you know, during the great financial crisis, but not investing for the purpose of what they're investing for now. This is a new thing. So to say that this, this, and this I keep saying, you know, everyone's like, "Oh, it's different this time is always the most dangerous words." And that could very well be. But the truth is it is different this time because this is a national security thing. So you're not going to stop investing in these things. They're not going to stop investing in trying to get these, you know, these metals, right? that they're not going to stop investing in the technology of AI and and building the chips and doing this because it's uh these people want to you know the United States does not want to give up its position as theoretical uh you know leader of the world and and China doesn't either. So they're going to keep investing in it. Um, and that goes to point two, which is this whole idea of liquidity driving asset prices higher, right? I mean, that's as real as can be. You know, the US has made it clear that that's what they're doing, right? They're are going to keep providing liquidity and they believe that they will that liquidity will be able to grow the economy faster than the inflation rate and therefore add value. Whether they can do that or not, you know, it's anyone's guess. Could certainly make an argument that they can't, but um again, we don't know. But that liquidity thing is there and that ain't going away. They have said that's what they're going to do. China is providing tons of liquidity. Europe's been cutting rates, providing liquidity. And now just in the last few weeks, Japan, which was supposed to be raising rates, the expectations were and and and choking liquidity a little bit, um, with their new election and the new prime minister has come out and said now they're jumping on the liquidity game, right? So the whole world is juicing and that's what they learned unfortunately I think but in '08 was the answer to anything just print money that's all you got to do you don't want a recession just keep printing money in one form or another print money cut rates create liquidity right and that's what they're doing I think that it's incredibly dangerous yes eventually um but you're going to have to break the US Treasury for it to be dangerous. Um, can that be done? That remains to be seen. I I think anything in the world has a limit. I think physics will teach us no matter what it is, everything has some limit, right? Um, I think if they continue down this path and we actually do reach that theoretical limit of where printing stops working and creating liquidity stops working, then I think you can kiss kiss it all goodbye, right? Um, once that stops working, we're dead, right? They've been kicking the can down the road, kicking the can down the road using this method. And once you come to the end of the road, there's no more road. You're at a dead end. But I don't think that we have seen that yet, you know, because the markets will let us know and and it could be I always say it could be a day away or it could be 20 years away. We don't know how much the market is going to permit this, but the market will let us know, right? Because there will come a time if that is the path we're going to go down. There will come a time where the market will reject it. you know, you'll get some kind of and and it'll probably be on a after a down move because we'll get a down move in something that the market that the government feels like they have to bail out be it the bond market or something and they will provide just like they did back in April May where they came out and tried the bond market started to look shaky there so they they bailed you know they came in and provided liquidity and that saved everything. Um, if there comes a time when they have to do that and it doesn't save everything, the market is saying screw you. We're not taking this anymore. You can't just print an unlimited amount of currency and that's the answer to everything. When the market says that, then I think we got some trouble. >> Before we jump back into the video, let's talk about something most people ignore, online privacy. Now, your personal information isn't just sitting on your phone or email. 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I'm not saying that that's what I'm saying. I'm saying that that is what's driving it when it ends. >> Yeah. >> For all I know, it could be today, right? Um but I mean, you know, people are wondering, you know, why is gold doing what it's doing? I mean, gold's up muching today. Silver's up another three and a half%. I mean, that that's the answer to all of this, right? It's all this. >> Yeah, I'll touch on gold and silver and Bitcoin in just a bit, but just closing off in the broad um S&P. What? Okay, so we we know that we can't define the stock things have changed. This I think in general stocks changed on Friday, right? >> Um from a riskreward perspective because forget about bubble for a second. >> Yeah. >> Cuz we don't even know what the hell that is, right? >> Okay, >> let's just call it a bull market. I think we can agree it's been a bull market, right? So when will the bull market end again? How does a bull market act? A bull market goes up when you get good news, right? When you get good AI news, a bull market goes up when you get liquidity news. A bull market goes up and then a bull market doesn't go down very much when you get some bad news. Right? Up to this point since April, that's been exactly the case. I think that that kind of changed on Friday cuz we got some bad news. um >> talking about last Friday when Trump announced the 100% tariff on China. Talking about that Friday, >> China came out with the news about the, you know, metals and they're not going to export them and then Trump came out with his his his tantrum. Um and the market went down a lot. So, it didn't shake off the bad news as it has been, right? Um you have today where um you have a good earnings report out of our friends out of Taiwan, you know, who are clearly the big AI people, right? Um SMCI, right? Is it what are they called? Taiwan Semi, right? Um Taiwan Semi had great earnings. They beat all expectations. That should be good news. Um and the market reacted in kind in the morning. Um, and now it's kind of selling off. So, I feel like if that news would have come out three or four months ago, this market would be ripping today, right? Um, because people were so caught short and were so bearish after the whole April fiasco. Um, now people are not as short. I was maybe going back to your bubble search thing, right? People are not as short as they were. So, we're kind of in a good news is maybe good news and bad news is maybe bad news here. So, unless you sort of have the inside take on what the next tweet's going to be, um it it's kind of hard to develop an edge here, which is why I am for the record flat everything right now. Um so, >> sorry. >> I I don't have any positions on right now. Okay. >> Ridden the stock market up as you had talked about um >> and we're getting out of some a few weeks ago and and got out of the rest uh last week. >> Yeah. >> So like I don't I don't see any good riskreward situations here. >> Well, let me ask you this, Jason. You're known for trading. You're known for trading against the crowd. Are there any particular sectors or assets that you think are really really crowded in one direction right now? The only thing I'm seeing that's super crowd is gold. Um, but >> short, but trying to get short gold has been just a colossal mistake, right? So, it's not just a question of is it crowded and therefore go the other way. It's got to be is it crowded and is the market agreeing with that, right? Um, >> I know you don't look at I know you don't look at technicals on the chart as a as a as a as a crowding indicator, but I'm just going to put it up here for reference. Um, at what point in this timeline did it start looking like it's way too crowded >> cuz I know it moved up parabolically basically >> in the last 3 4 weeks. >> Yeah. No, it started getting crowded back then about 3, four weeks ago, >> which just shows you crowded is not the the be all and end all, right? It's just sort of a possibility, right? Um it just means that should the market turn, there may be a lot of people that have to sell because they're so long, right? But this has been a good example of where, first of all, you want to wait for the market to tell you. It's never told you to sell here. The market's never gone down on what would otherwise be seen as positive news type of thing in gold. All it's done is go up, right? Um so you don't just short it because of the crowdedness. This is a good example of crowded markets can get a hell of a lot more crowded, right? I'm saying in the futures market, the gold positioning is crowded long. Sure, but if you've got, you know, 500 million Chinese lining up every day to buy an ounce of gold every single day, crowded in the futures market ain't going to get in the way of that, right? Um, eventually it will. It's just like if there's a bubble, if I'm going to call a bubble, I'll call a bubble in gold. I'll call a bubble and have been calling a bubble forever, much too long, but in in most of the crypto space, right? I mean, you want to talk about something that has and I'm not talking about Bitcoin. I think if somebody wants to make or Ethereum, you know, these sort of blue chippers, I don't know enough about it. I'm too old and I'm not smart enough to understand enough about crypto. But if somebody wants to make the argument to me that this is a legitimate thing and that in time they could be used for medium of exchange or store of wealth, which arguably they already are being used for. Um, that's fine. I'm all for it. But you want to talk to me about these other type of things, what what do they call them? Meme coins or or whatever fartcoin and all this stuff. These things have zero value. Don't even have any prospect of having value ever or use ever. So they ultimately are worth zero. Can they go up 300 times first? Sure, because we're in a liquidity environment where people have money and they like to play with it. But those things to me are a bubble. And I can't particularly take the crypto space. I own some Bitcoin, but I I can't take the crypto space very seriously. >> Yeah. >> Until 90% of these things go to zero. >> All right. I I want to back up a minute. >> That to me is that to me is a bubble. >> You said we're just back up a minute. You said we're in a liquidity event. People like to play with money right now. It does seem like that right now. It feels like that to me right now, Jason. You're right. And I'm just looking at the chart. Gold is up 63%. Silver's up 83%. gold, I mean silver notwithstanding, but gold traditionally has has been seen as a safe haven asset. It's gone up concurrently with stocks. It's gone up concurrently with Bitcoin year to date, as you can see on my screen, is actually beaten Bitcoin by a wide margin. I'm just talking about January 2025 to now. In an environment where even a traditionally where even an asset that's traditionally seen as being a safe haven or a riskoff play is going up this much, it looks like everything's just people are throwing money at whatever they want. You literally put a trade, throw it at the wall, hope it sticks. I mean, is that the strategy here? We're talking about what's what's in the bubble, what's not, what's credible, what's not. My question is, does it matter? Is is now the environment where you just throw your money at whatever you want, hopes it sticks, and you'll do fine. >> I don't know if you'll do fine. I don't know if that environment ever exists. >> Okay. >> Um especially now. Um, I think you have to stay disciplined no matter what. You know, I I think you have to take the the attitude that you want to make money over time. Okay? And if you are throwing your money at whatever and see what sticks and it'll be fine now, that might work now, but that's going to hurt you later. And you're not going to know when to stop doing one and and do the other, right? I think you have to remain disciplined to whatever you're doing, whatever is working, no matter what the environment, you know, it's hard, but trading and and investing is hard. But, you know, to sit here and say, "Oh, my brother-in-law is making a tons of money here because he's leveraged into Oaklo or he's he's leveraged into whatever the hell else, right? Uh these AI plays and, you know, these power plays and um okay, good for him. But what I'm telling you is the question is not how much money he's making today. The question is how much money he holds on to, right? Um, and that type of thinking and that type has never served people well over the long term. I knew plenty of people who made a lot of money in 1999. Okay? Um, and almost none of them held on to it through 20201, right? Cuz if you were willing to hold on to internet stocks all the way through the end of 1999, then clearly valuation or whatever meant nothing to you, right? They were way overvalued way before that. So if you were still holding on to it, right, then you were never going to get out. And if you never got out, then you know, you gave all your profits back and then some. Um, so I think that's the key to it all. Doesn't matter what I think, what you think, what anybody thinks about AI or bubble or this or that or the other thing. stick to your process. You know, if you think that AI is a great future and you think that there is a power need that isn't being met and therefore you're invested in these power stocks and all that, well, that hasn't changed, you know, stick with it, right? But don't be ridiculously leveraged cuz that's what's going to kill you. >> Can you just maybe show us your process? Let's take something that we're just talking about right now. Bitcoin for example. Can you take Bitcoin or any other trade that you're following right now and just walk us through how you determine whether or not it's too crowded at any given point? >> I use the commitment to traders data which is released by the futures exchanges every week. It's actually released by the CFTC every week. They gather it from the brokers. Um, and that gives you the data that shows you where people are long and short. Um, I then take this data, I index it so I can compare it relative to history. And I'm looking for places in particular where we're seeing extremely high long participation for me to start looking to get short things or extremely short participation for me to start looking to get long things. Um, that's the edge that I like to use. I I don't think that this data is particularly great at forecasting what is going to happen, but I don't think that anybody is particularly great at forecasting what is going to happen. What it is great at though is providing a good riskreward situation because if everybody's short, if you're seeing massive amounts of shorts, doesn't mean the market's going to turn. But there's a high probability that if it turns and all those shorts have to start buying back, there could be a huge move. the other way, right? And that's what I'm playing for, right? I'm not playing to make money 90% of the time. I'm playing to make money less than 50% of the time, but lose a dollar when I'm wrong and make $5 when I'm right. And let that math work for me over time. That's how I do it. So, what am I seeing as crowded right now? Gold. Um, I don't see stocks crowded now. They're massively crowded short. um in April and pretty much the whole way up. We finally started to see some movement away from that crowdedness starting about two three weeks ago, but we are nowhere near from what I see massively crowded long. Um which again the market can go down without it being massively crowded long also. I play a certain window. Doesn't mean that I catch every single trade. I don't. Doesn't mean all my trades work. They don't. But over time, the riskreward is good on those trades as proven. Um, but gold, I see it. But again, I'm not going to short gold just because it's showing crowd. I'm going to short gold when the market says, "Hey, we just got some super bullish news on on gold here and gold fails to go up on that super bullish news, then I'll short it." You know, I'm waiting for the the the market to agree with me. And like I say, no matter how you trade, that's the best piece of advice I can give anybody at any time. No matter what you're doing, if you're doing technical, if you're doing macro, if you're doing whatever you're doing, don't do it. Don't fight the market. Let the market agree with you first and and then >> and then go with it. You know, >> I'll just give you some personal anecdote on the resource sector. So, couple weeks ago, a friend of mine who has never talked about the markets with me said, "Hey, um, what do you think about silver? Um, I have friends who have bought silver and they're looking at silver at Costco. Costco was completely sold out of silver bullion. What do you think?" Just this morning, had another friend, again, somebody I've hung out with before, never talked about markets with, said, "Hey, bro, what do you think about resource stocks right now? Did you buy any resource stock? Did you buy any mining stocks this year?" They're finally uh they're finally starting to move. I It's not finally starting to move. It's been moving all year, but yeah, I mean, you get the point, right? It's um people that I've known for years that have never talked to me about the markets because they're not professional traders. They are all of a sudden ask me about gold, silver, and mining stocks. And I don't I don't know what to tell you, Jason. I'm just Yeah, I'm the message. The first question I would ask is have they actually bought it? >> You can't lose money in that they haven't actually bought it. They might be talking about it. There's a difference here. >> I don't know. >> That's why the commitments of traders data is so good because it's actually showing what people are actually doing as opposed to asking them what they wish they did, you know. >> Yeah. >> Um you know, it's real money, right? It's real money. So question one is did they actually buy the silver yet, right? Um but for sure uh and you know when a market does what what a market is doing in silver and in gold and and resources and all that of course it's going to attract that type of stuff right um and it's dangerous. That's the kind of things that certainly we know happens at a market top but uh until they get all their money in it's probably not going to top right. Um so that's the next question you got to ask them next time they ask you. Okay, but have you put your money in it yet? That's the more important question. I get that they're all talking about it, but have they actually put their money in it? That I think is is the important question there. >> Let me let me ask you a different way. If you had to put your money in something right now, cuz let's say you're looking everywhere, everything's up. Well, not everything, but most asset classes that are being followed by the mainstream are up and you're just kind of FOMOing right now. You're thinking, "Oh, should I should I finally get out of that gold stock? It's been up 120% already year to date. But let let's get in on that. Gold's up 67%. Silver's up 80%. Stocks are up 15 20%. You know, everything's up. What what what do I get in on now that has a less likelihood or lower probability of getting crowded out soon? Is there any way to approach that question? >> First of all, why is it bad to buy something that's up, you know? >> You know. >> Yeah, fair enough. >> I know. Like people like to buy try to bottom pick the that's going down and sell the stuff that's going up. But wouldn't you rather be in stuff that's going up and in stuff that's going down? That would be my question. But I hear what you're saying. It's hard. And that's what makes it so hard here is that >> is it harder to buy stocks here or sell them? Would you say >> if you're sitting on cash right now? Like are you buy >> is it easier to buy stuff or sell it? Um gee. Uh see that's it's it's conf I I can see the conflict in both because let's say I'm holding on to a position. I really want to take profits right now but I don't right now is in a time where again people that I've never talked to about stocks are fomoing into the markets and at the I don't know they're actually getting in but you know there there's a lot of retail interest. The other at the other hand I don't want to I don't know if I should be buying in when I've already missed out on 70% gains this year. Yeah, >> correct. >> So, >> no, look, this is why I have uh my stuff has gotten me all flat here because we're getting readings I believe on both sides, right? And we are getting a market now that is starting finally to play both sides. Like I say, bad news, the market's going down. Good news, look, we had good news today and the market's going down. So, that's bad, too. So, um that's why I'm flattening out here. Um, I'm waiting for the next opportunity. Where would I get into? Uh, as an investor, I think you need to have some exposure to what could possibly what the future looks like. I think personally I have been personally this year um for people that ask me those type of questions I believe that the the power supply is is the place that you you would want to be invested, right? I don't think that that's going away. I understand that some of the stocks have gone up very much, but you can buy a diversified portfolio or an ETF or something like that that focuses on, in fact, I I know of two that focus strictly on power generation for AI. Um, I don't know that I put all my money into one of them. I don't know that I put all my money into Oaklow, you know, up uh 800% or whatever in the last, you know, year. Um, but I think that the power thing is real and like I was saying before, the AI thing, whether it does all these magical things that are being promised, I have no idea. But what I do know is it's coming because like I said before, national defense wise, it's coming. They're not going to stop, right? So, as long as that's coming, they're going to have to figure out the power of situation. And I don't know what the answer is. Is it going to be nuclear? Is it going to be fusion? Is it going to be what this that the other? I have no idea. Right. And I don't know that anybody has any idea. It's probably going to be a combination of those things. Right. So diversified portfolio of that I think is probably the place to to be invested. >> Thank you, Jason. Appreciate it. Tell us about uh where we can find you and where we can um study your work. >> We have a website crowdedmarketreport.com um and also on Twitter. I mean, I'm sorry. On on YouTube, if you uh search crowdedreport.com, I have many many videos on there. Most of them are free to the public. Uh I do videos every week talking about different things. Um talking to different people. I do videos every day doing like a little bit of a market sort of observation. But certainly every week there's hundreds of videos on there um that you can check out. And then and then and I am on Twitter, but um I'm not a big Twitter fan anymore to tell you the truth. It's pretty toxic. So, uh mostly YouTube and um and our if you really want to find out a lot more about us and you can go to the web page crowdedarketreport.com. >> Okay, we'll put the links down below. Make sure to follow the crowded marketreport.com and Jason there. Thank you very much, Jason. We'll speak again soon. >> Always a pleasure, Dave. >> Thank you for watching. Don't forget to like, subscribe.
Trader Reveals 'Bubble' Assets; How Does Market Mania End? | Jason Shapiro
Summary
Transcript
If I'm going to call a bubble, I'll call a bubble in gold. I'll call a bubble and have been calling a bubble forever, much too long, but in in most of the crypto space, right? I mean, you want to talk about something that has, and I'm not talking about Bitcoin. I think if somebody wants to make or Ethereum, you know, these sort of blue chippers, everyone's like, "Oh, it's different this time." It's always the most dangerous words. And that could very well be. Jason Shapiro returns the show. He's a veteran trader who's been featured in Jack Schwagger's book, Unknown Market Wizards. He's the founder of the Credit Market Report. Check out his website, link down below, and check out his work. Check out our prior interview with Jason. He's been pretty much spot on with calling this rally this year. Let's see if now in October is the inflection point for markets. Now that gold is at $4,200, silver is at above 52. Stocks, NASDAQ, S&P, and the NASDAQ are at all-time highs. Welcome back to the show, Jason. Good to see you. >> Good to see you, David. >> You've got a big smile on your face. Clearly, you've been making gains. So, uh, congratulations. Let's take a look at this article here. The bubble in people searching for AI bubble has burst. What that means for the stocks, retail investors fear of an AI bubble appears to have fallen off after spiking the summer. It could mean that stocks are further to balloon before they ultimately top out. The number of US and worldwide web searches for the term AI bubble peaked August 20th and August 21st according to Google Trends. Let's do some verification oursel. Let's go to Google Trends. Jason, I'm going to type in AI bubble. Doesn't appear to be enough data. All right, doesn't matter. All right, let's go to the last 12 months. So, you see it's peaked in the summer and it's kind of waned off. The point of the article is making is that people are searching for bubbles a little bit less than what happened earlier in the summer. Um, and stocks, as you know, have continued to climb up ever since mid August. What do you make of this? >> Uh, what do I make of that particular chart of search and all that? >> I don't know. I mean, maybe they got maybe they got sick of searching for it in August. So, how many times do you have to search for that same thing? I don't Does it does it appear to you though just based on what you've observed that traders and the um general public alike are just a little bit less interested now in the concept of a bubble or less worried should I say >> I don't think so no >> no >> how many of the gu again how many of your guests in the last seven days have have mentioned the word bubble you tell me >> that's true that's true some of my guests are contrarians though like yourself so I I don't know they speak for Everybody else does the retail trading public >> again. How many how many of your guests in the last 15 days have brought up the word bubble? >> That's true. Quite a few. >> Would you say every single one of them? >> Almost. >> Okay. >> Almost. >> Then there we go. Then no one's forgotten about bubble yet in my view. They might say that they want to be contrarian and okay, but come on. It's on TV. It's on the Everything that we see. Everything we hear every day talks about bubble bubble bubble bubble. >> Yeah. And and and you and they talk about bubbles in the context of things that don't have cash flow as well. Stocks have cash flow. You can kind of see if a stock is a bubble if it's generating no cash flow, no earnings whatsoever. But you're looking at things like Bitcoin, gold, silver. They're applying that word to those assets as well. What do you think about that? Are alternative assets in a bubble right now, Jason? >> I don't even know what a bubble is. David, what's the definition of a bubble? And then we can talk about if things are in a bubble. What is a bubble? >> Okay. Do you have uh what are your thoughts? >> The best definition I've heard of for bubble is a bull market that you're not long. >> That's not That's not the technical definition, Jason, but I I get your point. >> I think it is. I mean, >> if you think that all these things are in a bubble, then are you long? >> Well, to this article's point, you can be, I guess, long the market. >> No, I I understand. One could be one could be long the bubble and still think that the bubble's going to get bigger, >> right? It just depends because nobody knows when a bubble's going to pop. But yeah, back to your point, what is a bubble? Um, >> yeah, >> the the textbook definition is just something whose valuations exceed what the fundamentals should tell you. So, if a stock's making $10, a company is making $10 a year and it's trading at a million dollar uh net present value, something's off, right? That's a bubble. >> Okay, but first of all, we have to know what that number is. Is it a million dollar? Is it $900,000? Is it $700,000? Is it $400? >> What's the number? That's right. We only know that in retrospect, clearly, right? Um, and I mean, so AI AI is a bubble. That's what people want to say. I I don't I'm not here to say it's not, okay? I'm here to say I don't know how you know um because we don't know what this thing is going to look like still. You know, is this going to be the single greatest uh invention that mankind has has ever seen and it's going to create all this productivity for for the whole world and you know companies are going to be able to double their earnings with half the costs and and all that. Um because if it's that then we're probably not in a bubble, right? That's probably underappreciated at this point. If it's not that, then certainly we, you know, then things probably are overvalued. Unless someone can tell me which one of those things is going to happen, you know, and what AI is going to look like in 5 years from now, I I don't know how you can determine just like anything, you know, uh is overvalued or undervalued just on paper by by running some spreadsheet. I I can tell you you're not going to determine it by doing what a lot of these people do, which is draw some random freaking, you know, random line through a bunch of price action and say, "Oh, there it is. That proves that it's a bubble." you know like that ain't going to work right. Um >> people use the term >> well we're talking about valuations bubble the other type of bubble that have been used on my show especially concentration bubble some people are concerned about the fact that the S&P is now more than 44 or 45% just tech stocks Nvidia alone accounts for I think 26% of the S&P they're carrying the earnings as well when when when you look at that level of concentration which some people have said is unprecedented does that does that make you want to just stay out of the market that particular market that is or do you not care about >> that? That really doesn't make me want to stay out of the market. But again, I I think that we could go back if the market were to go down a lot for the next 5 years, we could come back to today and say, were there signs in October of 2025 that this market was getting stupid? Right? And certainly we can answer yes, right? plenty of signs um you know companies like whoever Oakllo you know what I mean no revenues and the stocks up whatever 800% this year right um the amount of money that the typical sort of punter has been able to make this year is is much higher than uh one would expect and and and one much higher than what they do overtime that could be considered to be bubblyish. Um there are certainly some signs that that are there. But um it's all contingent to me on two things. One, if we talk about the AI thing, it's all contingent on what is this thing going to look like in in 5 years? And and there's no way to know that. You know what I mean? So basing it on valuations, you know, I don't know. I never know how anybody bases anything on valuations because unless you can tell me what the cash flows are for the next 10, 15, 20 years, um I don't know where you're getting a valuation from. Right. And >> that's true. >> And anyone who tells you they know what cash flows are going to be for the AI thing over the next 1015 years, I think is is fooling themselves, right? Um because it's you know that's what's so interesting about now is the change that's going on is so great therefore the volatility or the variance of of estimates is going to be so great right um so it it's it's certainly an interesting time I think that one thing to consider for those who are in the bubble camp um is the fact just on the AI fact. Let's not forget this is more than just a invention that is supposed to or a movement whatever you want to call it that is supposed to create better future earnings for S&P 500 companies right um this is also uh a national security thing right um you know the the country that that clearly has the lead in AI AI is going to have the lead in national security and everything else. And that's really, I think, what this whole obviously rift between the United States and and China is is all about, right? But if it is in fact a national security thing, which I I don't think is hard to argue that it is, there's no stopping the investment into it, right? There is no when it comes to national security, right? There's no stopping the money flow, right? It's like, you know, Easter Island. These people, you know, they built these ridiculous, you know, statues uh until they ran out of all resources and and went broke, right? But they kept building them because they thought that was the most important thing out there. It's the same thing here. This this M and we see it in every phase of of what's going on here. All of a sudden, you have the United States government investing in in in private companies that are important along the AI chain. We've never seen that really before. You know, we've seen the c the the country bail out some important industries during the crash, you know, during the great financial crisis, but not investing for the purpose of what they're investing for now. This is a new thing. So to say that this, this, and this I keep saying, you know, everyone's like, "Oh, it's different this time is always the most dangerous words." And that could very well be. But the truth is it is different this time because this is a national security thing. So you're not going to stop investing in these things. They're not going to stop investing in trying to get these, you know, these metals, right? that they're not going to stop investing in the technology of AI and and building the chips and doing this because it's uh these people want to you know the United States does not want to give up its position as theoretical uh you know leader of the world and and China doesn't either. So they're going to keep investing in it. Um, and that goes to point two, which is this whole idea of liquidity driving asset prices higher, right? I mean, that's as real as can be. You know, the US has made it clear that that's what they're doing, right? They're are going to keep providing liquidity and they believe that they will that liquidity will be able to grow the economy faster than the inflation rate and therefore add value. Whether they can do that or not, you know, it's anyone's guess. Could certainly make an argument that they can't, but um again, we don't know. But that liquidity thing is there and that ain't going away. They have said that's what they're going to do. China is providing tons of liquidity. Europe's been cutting rates, providing liquidity. And now just in the last few weeks, Japan, which was supposed to be raising rates, the expectations were and and and choking liquidity a little bit, um, with their new election and the new prime minister has come out and said now they're jumping on the liquidity game, right? So the whole world is juicing and that's what they learned unfortunately I think but in '08 was the answer to anything just print money that's all you got to do you don't want a recession just keep printing money in one form or another print money cut rates create liquidity right and that's what they're doing I think that it's incredibly dangerous yes eventually um but you're going to have to break the US Treasury for it to be dangerous. Um, can that be done? That remains to be seen. I I think anything in the world has a limit. I think physics will teach us no matter what it is, everything has some limit, right? Um, I think if they continue down this path and we actually do reach that theoretical limit of where printing stops working and creating liquidity stops working, then I think you can kiss kiss it all goodbye, right? Um, once that stops working, we're dead, right? They've been kicking the can down the road, kicking the can down the road using this method. And once you come to the end of the road, there's no more road. You're at a dead end. But I don't think that we have seen that yet, you know, because the markets will let us know and and it could be I always say it could be a day away or it could be 20 years away. We don't know how much the market is going to permit this, but the market will let us know, right? Because there will come a time if that is the path we're going to go down. There will come a time where the market will reject it. you know, you'll get some kind of and and it'll probably be on a after a down move because we'll get a down move in something that the market that the government feels like they have to bail out be it the bond market or something and they will provide just like they did back in April May where they came out and tried the bond market started to look shaky there so they they bailed you know they came in and provided liquidity and that saved everything. Um, if there comes a time when they have to do that and it doesn't save everything, the market is saying screw you. We're not taking this anymore. You can't just print an unlimited amount of currency and that's the answer to everything. When the market says that, then I think we got some trouble. >> Before we jump back into the video, let's talk about something most people ignore, online privacy. Now, your personal information isn't just sitting on your phone or email. It's being scraped, bought, and sold by data broker websites every day without your permission. Our sponsor today, Delete Me, helps you take that control back. They scan the internet for your exposed information, send you regular privacy reports, and remove your data from hundreds of broker sites so it can't be used against you. Take mine for example. In the latest report, they reviewed over 325 listings to see if any data brokers had my personal information, and they continue to check every week to ensure that it stays off. Go to joindeleteme.com/davidlinin and use the promo code davidin at checkout link down below or scan the QR code here on the screen and you'll get 20% off of all US plans. Take control of your privacy today before somebody else does. It sounds like, correct me if I'm wrong, that you think momentum, current upside momentum isn't going away anytime soon, right? That's what you're saying based on all these fundamentals you're talking about. I'm not saying that that's what I'm saying. I'm saying that that is what's driving it when it ends. >> Yeah. >> For all I know, it could be today, right? Um but I mean, you know, people are wondering, you know, why is gold doing what it's doing? I mean, gold's up muching today. Silver's up another three and a half%. I mean, that that's the answer to all of this, right? It's all this. >> Yeah, I'll touch on gold and silver and Bitcoin in just a bit, but just closing off in the broad um S&P. What? Okay, so we we know that we can't define the stock things have changed. This I think in general stocks changed on Friday, right? >> Um from a riskreward perspective because forget about bubble for a second. >> Yeah. >> Cuz we don't even know what the hell that is, right? >> Okay, >> let's just call it a bull market. I think we can agree it's been a bull market, right? So when will the bull market end again? How does a bull market act? A bull market goes up when you get good news, right? When you get good AI news, a bull market goes up when you get liquidity news. A bull market goes up and then a bull market doesn't go down very much when you get some bad news. Right? Up to this point since April, that's been exactly the case. I think that that kind of changed on Friday cuz we got some bad news. um >> talking about last Friday when Trump announced the 100% tariff on China. Talking about that Friday, >> China came out with the news about the, you know, metals and they're not going to export them and then Trump came out with his his his tantrum. Um and the market went down a lot. So, it didn't shake off the bad news as it has been, right? Um you have today where um you have a good earnings report out of our friends out of Taiwan, you know, who are clearly the big AI people, right? Um SMCI, right? Is it what are they called? Taiwan Semi, right? Um Taiwan Semi had great earnings. They beat all expectations. That should be good news. Um and the market reacted in kind in the morning. Um, and now it's kind of selling off. So, I feel like if that news would have come out three or four months ago, this market would be ripping today, right? Um, because people were so caught short and were so bearish after the whole April fiasco. Um, now people are not as short. I was maybe going back to your bubble search thing, right? People are not as short as they were. So, we're kind of in a good news is maybe good news and bad news is maybe bad news here. So, unless you sort of have the inside take on what the next tweet's going to be, um it it's kind of hard to develop an edge here, which is why I am for the record flat everything right now. Um so, >> sorry. >> I I don't have any positions on right now. Okay. >> Ridden the stock market up as you had talked about um >> and we're getting out of some a few weeks ago and and got out of the rest uh last week. >> Yeah. >> So like I don't I don't see any good riskreward situations here. >> Well, let me ask you this, Jason. You're known for trading. You're known for trading against the crowd. Are there any particular sectors or assets that you think are really really crowded in one direction right now? The only thing I'm seeing that's super crowd is gold. Um, but >> short, but trying to get short gold has been just a colossal mistake, right? So, it's not just a question of is it crowded and therefore go the other way. It's got to be is it crowded and is the market agreeing with that, right? Um, >> I know you don't look at I know you don't look at technicals on the chart as a as a as a as a crowding indicator, but I'm just going to put it up here for reference. Um, at what point in this timeline did it start looking like it's way too crowded >> cuz I know it moved up parabolically basically >> in the last 3 4 weeks. >> Yeah. No, it started getting crowded back then about 3, four weeks ago, >> which just shows you crowded is not the the be all and end all, right? It's just sort of a possibility, right? Um it just means that should the market turn, there may be a lot of people that have to sell because they're so long, right? But this has been a good example of where, first of all, you want to wait for the market to tell you. It's never told you to sell here. The market's never gone down on what would otherwise be seen as positive news type of thing in gold. All it's done is go up, right? Um so you don't just short it because of the crowdedness. This is a good example of crowded markets can get a hell of a lot more crowded, right? I'm saying in the futures market, the gold positioning is crowded long. Sure, but if you've got, you know, 500 million Chinese lining up every day to buy an ounce of gold every single day, crowded in the futures market ain't going to get in the way of that, right? Um, eventually it will. It's just like if there's a bubble, if I'm going to call a bubble, I'll call a bubble in gold. I'll call a bubble and have been calling a bubble forever, much too long, but in in most of the crypto space, right? I mean, you want to talk about something that has and I'm not talking about Bitcoin. I think if somebody wants to make or Ethereum, you know, these sort of blue chippers, I don't know enough about it. I'm too old and I'm not smart enough to understand enough about crypto. But if somebody wants to make the argument to me that this is a legitimate thing and that in time they could be used for medium of exchange or store of wealth, which arguably they already are being used for. Um, that's fine. I'm all for it. But you want to talk to me about these other type of things, what what do they call them? Meme coins or or whatever fartcoin and all this stuff. These things have zero value. Don't even have any prospect of having value ever or use ever. So they ultimately are worth zero. Can they go up 300 times first? Sure, because we're in a liquidity environment where people have money and they like to play with it. But those things to me are a bubble. And I can't particularly take the crypto space. I own some Bitcoin, but I I can't take the crypto space very seriously. >> Yeah. >> Until 90% of these things go to zero. >> All right. I I want to back up a minute. >> That to me is that to me is a bubble. >> You said we're just back up a minute. You said we're in a liquidity event. People like to play with money right now. It does seem like that right now. It feels like that to me right now, Jason. You're right. And I'm just looking at the chart. Gold is up 63%. Silver's up 83%. gold, I mean silver notwithstanding, but gold traditionally has has been seen as a safe haven asset. It's gone up concurrently with stocks. It's gone up concurrently with Bitcoin year to date, as you can see on my screen, is actually beaten Bitcoin by a wide margin. I'm just talking about January 2025 to now. In an environment where even a traditionally where even an asset that's traditionally seen as being a safe haven or a riskoff play is going up this much, it looks like everything's just people are throwing money at whatever they want. You literally put a trade, throw it at the wall, hope it sticks. I mean, is that the strategy here? We're talking about what's what's in the bubble, what's not, what's credible, what's not. My question is, does it matter? Is is now the environment where you just throw your money at whatever you want, hopes it sticks, and you'll do fine. >> I don't know if you'll do fine. I don't know if that environment ever exists. >> Okay. >> Um especially now. Um, I think you have to stay disciplined no matter what. You know, I I think you have to take the the attitude that you want to make money over time. Okay? And if you are throwing your money at whatever and see what sticks and it'll be fine now, that might work now, but that's going to hurt you later. And you're not going to know when to stop doing one and and do the other, right? I think you have to remain disciplined to whatever you're doing, whatever is working, no matter what the environment, you know, it's hard, but trading and and investing is hard. But, you know, to sit here and say, "Oh, my brother-in-law is making a tons of money here because he's leveraged into Oaklo or he's he's leveraged into whatever the hell else, right? Uh these AI plays and, you know, these power plays and um okay, good for him. But what I'm telling you is the question is not how much money he's making today. The question is how much money he holds on to, right? Um, and that type of thinking and that type has never served people well over the long term. I knew plenty of people who made a lot of money in 1999. Okay? Um, and almost none of them held on to it through 20201, right? Cuz if you were willing to hold on to internet stocks all the way through the end of 1999, then clearly valuation or whatever meant nothing to you, right? They were way overvalued way before that. So if you were still holding on to it, right, then you were never going to get out. And if you never got out, then you know, you gave all your profits back and then some. Um, so I think that's the key to it all. Doesn't matter what I think, what you think, what anybody thinks about AI or bubble or this or that or the other thing. stick to your process. You know, if you think that AI is a great future and you think that there is a power need that isn't being met and therefore you're invested in these power stocks and all that, well, that hasn't changed, you know, stick with it, right? But don't be ridiculously leveraged cuz that's what's going to kill you. >> Can you just maybe show us your process? Let's take something that we're just talking about right now. Bitcoin for example. Can you take Bitcoin or any other trade that you're following right now and just walk us through how you determine whether or not it's too crowded at any given point? >> I use the commitment to traders data which is released by the futures exchanges every week. It's actually released by the CFTC every week. They gather it from the brokers. Um, and that gives you the data that shows you where people are long and short. Um, I then take this data, I index it so I can compare it relative to history. And I'm looking for places in particular where we're seeing extremely high long participation for me to start looking to get short things or extremely short participation for me to start looking to get long things. Um, that's the edge that I like to use. I I don't think that this data is particularly great at forecasting what is going to happen, but I don't think that anybody is particularly great at forecasting what is going to happen. What it is great at though is providing a good riskreward situation because if everybody's short, if you're seeing massive amounts of shorts, doesn't mean the market's going to turn. But there's a high probability that if it turns and all those shorts have to start buying back, there could be a huge move. the other way, right? And that's what I'm playing for, right? I'm not playing to make money 90% of the time. I'm playing to make money less than 50% of the time, but lose a dollar when I'm wrong and make $5 when I'm right. And let that math work for me over time. That's how I do it. So, what am I seeing as crowded right now? Gold. Um, I don't see stocks crowded now. They're massively crowded short. um in April and pretty much the whole way up. We finally started to see some movement away from that crowdedness starting about two three weeks ago, but we are nowhere near from what I see massively crowded long. Um which again the market can go down without it being massively crowded long also. I play a certain window. Doesn't mean that I catch every single trade. I don't. Doesn't mean all my trades work. They don't. But over time, the riskreward is good on those trades as proven. Um, but gold, I see it. But again, I'm not going to short gold just because it's showing crowd. I'm going to short gold when the market says, "Hey, we just got some super bullish news on on gold here and gold fails to go up on that super bullish news, then I'll short it." You know, I'm waiting for the the the market to agree with me. And like I say, no matter how you trade, that's the best piece of advice I can give anybody at any time. No matter what you're doing, if you're doing technical, if you're doing macro, if you're doing whatever you're doing, don't do it. Don't fight the market. Let the market agree with you first and and then >> and then go with it. You know, >> I'll just give you some personal anecdote on the resource sector. So, couple weeks ago, a friend of mine who has never talked about the markets with me said, "Hey, um, what do you think about silver? Um, I have friends who have bought silver and they're looking at silver at Costco. Costco was completely sold out of silver bullion. What do you think?" Just this morning, had another friend, again, somebody I've hung out with before, never talked about markets with, said, "Hey, bro, what do you think about resource stocks right now? Did you buy any resource stock? Did you buy any mining stocks this year?" They're finally uh they're finally starting to move. I It's not finally starting to move. It's been moving all year, but yeah, I mean, you get the point, right? It's um people that I've known for years that have never talked to me about the markets because they're not professional traders. They are all of a sudden ask me about gold, silver, and mining stocks. And I don't I don't know what to tell you, Jason. I'm just Yeah, I'm the message. The first question I would ask is have they actually bought it? >> You can't lose money in that they haven't actually bought it. They might be talking about it. There's a difference here. >> I don't know. >> That's why the commitments of traders data is so good because it's actually showing what people are actually doing as opposed to asking them what they wish they did, you know. >> Yeah. >> Um you know, it's real money, right? It's real money. So question one is did they actually buy the silver yet, right? Um but for sure uh and you know when a market does what what a market is doing in silver and in gold and and resources and all that of course it's going to attract that type of stuff right um and it's dangerous. That's the kind of things that certainly we know happens at a market top but uh until they get all their money in it's probably not going to top right. Um so that's the next question you got to ask them next time they ask you. Okay, but have you put your money in it yet? That's the more important question. I get that they're all talking about it, but have they actually put their money in it? That I think is is the important question there. >> Let me let me ask you a different way. If you had to put your money in something right now, cuz let's say you're looking everywhere, everything's up. Well, not everything, but most asset classes that are being followed by the mainstream are up and you're just kind of FOMOing right now. You're thinking, "Oh, should I should I finally get out of that gold stock? It's been up 120% already year to date. But let let's get in on that. Gold's up 67%. Silver's up 80%. Stocks are up 15 20%. You know, everything's up. What what what do I get in on now that has a less likelihood or lower probability of getting crowded out soon? Is there any way to approach that question? >> First of all, why is it bad to buy something that's up, you know? >> You know. >> Yeah, fair enough. >> I know. Like people like to buy try to bottom pick the that's going down and sell the stuff that's going up. But wouldn't you rather be in stuff that's going up and in stuff that's going down? That would be my question. But I hear what you're saying. It's hard. And that's what makes it so hard here is that >> is it harder to buy stocks here or sell them? Would you say >> if you're sitting on cash right now? Like are you buy >> is it easier to buy stuff or sell it? Um gee. Uh see that's it's it's conf I I can see the conflict in both because let's say I'm holding on to a position. I really want to take profits right now but I don't right now is in a time where again people that I've never talked to about stocks are fomoing into the markets and at the I don't know they're actually getting in but you know there there's a lot of retail interest. The other at the other hand I don't want to I don't know if I should be buying in when I've already missed out on 70% gains this year. Yeah, >> correct. >> So, >> no, look, this is why I have uh my stuff has gotten me all flat here because we're getting readings I believe on both sides, right? And we are getting a market now that is starting finally to play both sides. Like I say, bad news, the market's going down. Good news, look, we had good news today and the market's going down. So, that's bad, too. So, um that's why I'm flattening out here. Um, I'm waiting for the next opportunity. Where would I get into? Uh, as an investor, I think you need to have some exposure to what could possibly what the future looks like. I think personally I have been personally this year um for people that ask me those type of questions I believe that the the power supply is is the place that you you would want to be invested, right? I don't think that that's going away. I understand that some of the stocks have gone up very much, but you can buy a diversified portfolio or an ETF or something like that that focuses on, in fact, I I know of two that focus strictly on power generation for AI. Um, I don't know that I put all my money into one of them. I don't know that I put all my money into Oaklow, you know, up uh 800% or whatever in the last, you know, year. Um, but I think that the power thing is real and like I was saying before, the AI thing, whether it does all these magical things that are being promised, I have no idea. But what I do know is it's coming because like I said before, national defense wise, it's coming. They're not going to stop, right? So, as long as that's coming, they're going to have to figure out the power of situation. And I don't know what the answer is. Is it going to be nuclear? Is it going to be fusion? Is it going to be what this that the other? I have no idea. Right. And I don't know that anybody has any idea. It's probably going to be a combination of those things. Right. So diversified portfolio of that I think is probably the place to to be invested. >> Thank you, Jason. Appreciate it. Tell us about uh where we can find you and where we can um study your work. >> We have a website crowdedmarketreport.com um and also on Twitter. I mean, I'm sorry. On on YouTube, if you uh search crowdedreport.com, I have many many videos on there. Most of them are free to the public. Uh I do videos every week talking about different things. Um talking to different people. I do videos every day doing like a little bit of a market sort of observation. But certainly every week there's hundreds of videos on there um that you can check out. And then and then and I am on Twitter, but um I'm not a big Twitter fan anymore to tell you the truth. It's pretty toxic. So, uh mostly YouTube and um and our if you really want to find out a lot more about us and you can go to the web page crowdedarketreport.com. >> Okay, we'll put the links down below. Make sure to follow the crowded marketreport.com and Jason there. Thank you very much, Jason. We'll speak again soon. >> Always a pleasure, Dave. >> Thank you for watching. Don't forget to like, subscribe.