Why Lobo Tiggre is Not Buying Gold & Silver Stocks Right Now
Summary
Investment Strategy: Lobo Tiggre emphasizes a consistent, reliable approach to investing rather than chasing high-risk, high-reward opportunities, focusing on steady gains over time.
Market Skepticism: Tiggre advises caution when considering overlooked mining stocks, suggesting that if a company is not recognized by the market, there may be underlying issues not immediately apparent.
Gold and Silver Market: Despite a strong market, Tiggre warns against buying high in hopes of selling higher, suggesting that current conditions are not ideal for bottom feeding in the gold and silver sectors.
Portfolio Management: He discusses the importance of taking profits and managing risks, especially in a volatile market, and highlights the use of an "upside maximizer" strategy to lock in gains.
Sector Focus: Tiggre is currently more bullish on copper due to its immediate demand and supply constraints, while remaining cautious about nickel, which he sees as a longer-term play.
Market Risks: He highlights the risk of being too convinced by one's own narrative and the importance of skepticism, especially towards mining company CEOs and their claims.
Future Outlook: Tiggre suggests that while a blowoff top in gold and silver is possible, a steady, long-term growth would be preferable, and stresses the importance of having a strategy to take profits during market highs.
Transcript
Today on Resource Talks, Lobo Tiger is back to talk to me about the mining stock bull market, how to navigate it, and uh or at least whatever is left of it, and potentially what the next bull market in mining is going to be. Just briefly for people watching or listening, if you want a summary of this conversation and all the other interviews that we do on Resource Talks, go to resourcealks.com. There's a free newsletter. It goes out once a week with a bullet point summary of all the conversations from the week before. But, uh, Lobo, it's been a while since you and I sat down, so I'll shut up already and let you do the talking, but thank you for coming back on. >> Happy to be on the show. >> Pleasure is mine. And, uh, you know, it really has been a while. I think it might have been a year or something like that. How have you been since we last spoke? What's new? What's old? How's life? >> Well, um, my portfolio has doubled then since the last time we spoke, so can't complain. on paper or are you taking any profits? >> That is the current or so my year-to- date gain is like 99% showing on my Schwab account. Now, that might sound like I'm bragging, but since the GDX is up 125% or something year to date, you can say, "Gee, Lobo, you're underperforming the benchmark." Um, so maybe I've just embarrassed myself, but it is what it is. I I can say I I just happened we were talking track record off camera before we started so I just glanced uh over the last two years it's up 230%. So I'm making money and I can't complain. And sorry, just you asked on this subject. I might as well say, look, if you're looking for the guy who's going to give you the next 10bagger for sure, right? 100 extra money driving into the stock. I've I'm I'm not the guy who targets the biggest wins ever, swings for the bleachers every time. I actually try to make money consistently on all of my picks and I don't on all of my picks, but I'd much rather consistently reliably make money over time then be the guy who gets lucky sometimes and gets wiped out other times. Certainly don't want my clients getting wiped out. >> So, what is that one little small cap junior that's going to 20x over the rest of the world? That's how you sell newsletters logo. You didn't you didn't figure that out yet? >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I'm I'm I'm totally flubbing it here. So, this is actually a market question and I think it's really important. Um, and in a way, we're being handed an opportunity here to really separate the wheat from the chaff. And that is if you think you found some overlooked gem of a mining gold company or or uranium company, you know, that's got something great and and nobody else realizes it, you're going to make your fortune betting on this company because all the money's gone somewhere else. That is highly unlikely. You know, as Doug Casey used to say, chances are slim to none and slims out of town. If the market is not recognizing the share price, this is a public company. The information that you have is out there. And by the way, you know, the the Orion mine finances of the world and the Wheatens and the Franco, they've got the same data and they've got a much bigger due diligence team than even I have, right? So if if everybody's taking a pass on this and only you have discovered this unknown gem, just probably not the case. probably the market is passing judgment on this and there's something wrong with that company or the project that you haven't identified. It doesn't say on the PowerPoint presentation that the local natives are burning the CEO and effigy or something like that. >> That's actually something that I do want to talk about is to what then is the next thing where like where do I find value in in this in the space and I will I'll definitely be back to that point. And I've made a note to to come back to it, but just going back to the point that you said about that the GDXG, it's up 150% year to year. >> What a slouch. I'm only up 99%. >> Well, but so no, I'm actually wondering why that is. I mean, you obviously know how to pick quality and all that. And and like even some of my stocks are running. So this this really is a bull market, but they're not running as much as some others, though. And and as as you would know, I don't really pay attention to metals prices as much anymore. I pick my own stuff kind of bottom up now. Um, so I'm fine with them not running as much for me specifically, but it seems like it's more of a a sectorwide thematic where again the tide hasn't lifted all boats yet. So I is is that time going to come eventually? Like are some of the stuff that that have not yet run, are we going to see them go up eventually? >> If it does, beware. Like that's not a healthy thing. If even the the the crappiest boats that don't just have a hole in their hole like like it's broken in half, the Titanic on the bottom of the ocean, if the tide lifts that puppy, you know, that's pretty scary in that world. So, so beware and and absolutely don't let yourself believe that it's the best company ever. Um, if you don't mind, let me jump back a moment. So, I mentioned the gain year to date on my portfolio and that does include profit taking and and some selling. So, that like that's an that's a that's an actual number from my Schwab portfolio. Uh it's not a an entry point exit point. It's not a hypothetical gain or something like that. So, uh maybe it would be different if I just calculated the low point and the end point, right? Uh but we can come back to that. We can talk track record if you want. But the main point to your point right now for this and I love that we didn't start with where's gold going next. If if there's an overlook gem there, it's probably not an overlooked gem. It's on sale or it's not responding to gold for a reason. And that's a and if at the very least it's a red flag and you need to be careful and you should dig and dig and dig until you find out why it's not responding. And if you can't figure it out, don't buy it. If you can figure it out and you think the market is wrong, like there's a political risk, let's say, assigned to it that's exaggerated. Let's say it's a Yukon play and people are still scared of the Yukon because of the Victoria Mine disaster, uh, which isn't true, but let's as an example, like it and and you were convinced that the market was wrong about the Yukon, that might be a reason to buy an overlooked gem. But if you can't figure it out, don't buy it. you're you know and if you can't and if you can't figure out you know you find that there is something wrong then that's definitely something to pay attention to. Um, at this point in the market, I mean, come on. We're we're between we're I don't even know if as we're speaking, we're closer to $4,300 gold, then to $4,200 gold, silver, not just touching its all-time nominal high over 50, but staying there for a week. Like, this is a very strong market and people are looking for opportunities. Um, so this is not the time to be bottom feeding. This is not a buy low, sell high type opportunity. If you're long, great. If you're new to the sector, you need to understand that if you start buying everything that's running now, you're hoping on the greater fool. You know, that's the greater fool strategy. You're buying high and hoping to sell even higher. Uh people can make money doing that. You know, who's to know gold won't double again from here? It could. Um, but it could be that we're near at least an interim top and if you chase it now, you'll regret it in a few months or a year. >> So, the tide's only lifting the the high quality expensive yachts essentially. It's more like a regata, not a bull market, I suppose. to to actually to follow that metaphor in terms of telling the audience something they could use to make money or not. Let's say, you know, we we let's say we're going into the blowoff mania phase, like the next big move is actually up, like majorly up. As as much as we might think, oh, we're already here. $4,000 gold, that's that's the destination. Ah, close enough to 5,000, right? Well, not really. If it goes screaming up to 5,000 and then goes screeching into reverse, the stocks will go nuts. I mean, from here to 5,000 is a big enough difference and the headlines that that will be making. And the Johnny come lately, you know, the the FOMO will really kick in in a big way. I mean, you've got Ray Dallio and Gunlock telling people that 20 25% allocated to gold is not too much. You know, was it Morgan Stanley or one of those Morgan type outfits? Oh, Jamie Diamond said it's not completely irrational to own gold. Like if this is the beginning of the mania, not the end, but if this is the beginning of that that vertical leap in the mania phase, that implies much higher prices immediately ahead. If that's what's happening, and I'm not predicting this, I'm not promising this. I'm not telling anybody to rush in because the mania is coming. I'm saying if if this is happening, yes, that rising tide will likely lift everything higher. But to your regata point, where does the new person who doesn't know anything about gold and doesn't know which companies are are excellent operators and not which ones are lifestyle juniors and which ones actually have discoveries of merit, right? They don't know any of this. Where are they going to go? They're going to go to what Doug Casey used to call the go-to companies, right? the the best of the blue chips, the the biggest and the best known names. So, ironically, in this environment, it might not be your juniors that give you the best hockey stick. It might actually be the companies that are normally too big for a junior resource speculator like you or me to bother with because that's where the dumb money, pardon me, but you know, the the FOMO money, where will it go? The go-to space. So, I'm not a I'm not a gambler, but if I was and I was thinking of going to Vegas to put money in slot machines, I might just put it into the majors major gold and silver miners now instead. And they're not cheap at less certainly near multi-year highs. But if the next big move is that mania phase that lifts all ships to to the discussion we're having, I think those are the ships that will soar the highest in the first. >> There a specific segment or jurisdiction deposit type uh something else of the gold and silver developers that you like in particular right now? Is there a magic solution, a magic answer? >> No. for the for you. It's interesting you said that you uh instead of top down, bottom up and so on, there's a and this is relevant to your question. There's a tried and true thing that if you listen to Warren Buffett or Peter Lynch or Howard Marx or any of these famous in Jeff Gunlock investors out there, they'll tell you that it's very difficult to outsmart all of Wall Street. Almost impossible. But if you concentrate on avoiding the bottom, the worst of the worst, you if you can avoid the disasters in the making, lop off the bottom from your, you know, do do what all the other gold investors are doing, but avoid those worst mistakes, you will by definition do better than average. Simply by avoiding the worst mistakes. >> What are the worst mistakes than in this market? I mean, if you if you you can't say what do you buy, what do I not buy? >> Well, it's no, that's what you can't. I think it is much harder to say what do I buy? Like who's going to make the next discovery? I don't know that. You don't know that. Not even Rick Rule and Doug Casey know that. Nobody knows that, right? Um that's why we like prospect generators. But um nobody knows that. But if but if you look at a company and it's a disaster waiting to happen, you know, it's you know, all the money has gone into marketing. None of it's gone in the drown ground, right? They they have nothing. And at some point that will become evident or or the locals are burning the CEO and effigy, right? If you can find out those things and just don't go there, avoid the worst of the worst. They're actually fairly easy to identify. Um, you know, lifestyle companies that have been around for decades and have no major discovery uh and spend more on GNA than on drilling or applying boot leather to the ground. It's it's it's easier to avoid the disasters than to depict the the next uh snowline gold before it happens or something like that. And you can improve your average result that way in a more reliable way than trying to swing for the bleachers all the time. H >> so sorry the answer to your question therefore is like in a market like we are right now there's no sector there's no answer there's no prospect generator or pre-production sweet spot play that is going to save me or make money for me if gold bounces off let's say 4500 and then goes screaming back down to 3500 and by the way if it did that 3500 would be a fantastic level for the actual business of mining gold. You know, most gold mines are built on a price assumption half that level or less, >> right? But the stocks would would absolutely get thrown out with a bathwater. You know, the best of the best. So, um even my my favorite speculation, the pre-production sweet spot, that will not save me if the market turns downwards. There there is no type or or anything that that's going to save you from that. Um, now I I know that, you know, we're talking mining stocks and not macro, but I have to say quickly if something like that happened, you know, a gold drops $1,000 an ounce. I think that would not just be a dip. I think that would be an absolute gift from the market because the macro is extremely supportive for anything real, real estate, commodities, and certainly real money, gold and silver. So uh a big scare like that would would shake out all the FOMO people all the Johnny come lately and I think the the sell off in the stocks would be greatly magnified over the fluctuation in the metal while the macro thesis remains strong as ever. So I would see that as a as a tremendous buying opportunity. If I was if I was a disciplined speculator and I was completely new to the space, I would rather wait for that volatility to be my friend than jump on the bandwagon of FOMO right now. >> Do you have your crystal ball with you? You typically do there on your desk. Keep >> Well, I I have a magic eightball that was sent to me by a client, by the way, as a gift. And I like it because if I drop it during an interview, it won't shatter all over the floor. >> Keep Keep it Keep it handy. I am going to ask you when the bull market is going to end here in a couple of minutes, but um how how has the way that you look at mining stocks changed given the valuations though? Is there a new checklist in or something else to look out for when you're trying to avoid the the obvious disasters, the most overpriced ones? >> Uh the answer is no. There is no new checklist. Therefore, for the first time in my career as the independent speculator, I've actually yanked my shopping list. I have no shopping list this month. >> Okay. I'm reconsidering where I rotate into next and you know different shopping list for coming up and I'm thinking about that now. Um but my but currently I I have no shopping list because I did alter my criteria before. I remember in the runup in 2009 10 11 and you you you know in 2008 it was easy. The best of the best were were absolutely, you know, in on the fire sale price level, right? It was great as a buyer. 2009 was pretty good. But then 2010, you know, the valuations all started running. 2011 to, you know, the in early 2011. Anyway, interestingly enough, by the way, the stocks led the metals on the way down and that hasn't happened yet this year. So, if you're worried about when the markets are going to roll over, doesn't prove anything, but just for whatever it's worth, in 2011 the stocks rolled over kind of in Aprilish is if memory serves. It's getting a little bit old, but um and the peak wasn't until September. Um, silver also led gold down. But anyway, I digress. The point is at that time I'm, you know, I'm I've got a newsletter. I got to have new stock picks. And as a as a person looking for value, nothing was undervalued. They were all arguably overvalued. I mean, a junior with no asset, no resource in the ground is by definition overvalued. They all are overvalued, but they're all more overvalued than usual. And even the ones that had a resource that you could put some kind of number on were overvalued. So then you got yourself into this game of relative valuation. And I remember writing about this. I remember saying, "Well, no, I can't say that this $100 million junior that has nothing is really cheap, but his peers are all trading for three or 400 million. So, on a relative scale, this $und00 million junior has more upside." And we went there and we we had stock picks like that back in the day. That was a mistake and it's not one I'm going to repeat. And that's why right now I have no shopping list. Like, so I'm I'm doing a terrible job of selling newsletters, right? What what people want to hear right now is gold's going to the moon. It's going to 10,000. It's not stopping. And you have to sign up now to get this one little overlooked gem that that only I know about. So pay me money, right? And instead of that, I'm telling you, I have no shopping list. So gee, I'm flubbing it completely here, making money on this golden opportunity. But I'm trying to help. And I remember making that mistake before. You know, moral relativism is something I object to in life in general. So, you know, value relativism as an investor is just it's not something I can get behind. Basically, yeah, I I'd rather stick by my criteria and have no stock picks than compromise and then the market rolls over and the garbage that I let in my portfolio because I needed a stock pick, you know, it it wipes out capital and I'm just not I'm not willing to go there. >> If you need to borrow a shopping list, I'm sure my wife has a full drawer of it someplace. Uh, so I can I can ask I don't know if you like handbags and and high heels, but uh she does have plenty of those. Joke jokes jokes aside though, what what if someone's like Globo everything's great that you're saying here, but I'm still going to disagree. I think money printing and everything that's happening with bonds in China and everything gold's going much higher. I'm still going to buy mining stocks now. I'm going to start buying them now. What do I look out for? Is one thing more important than the other right now? >> I answered that already. The go-to stocks. If I was in that mindset, I'm gonna gamble. Now, I think gold's the next move is higher. If you're convinced of that and you're willing to gamble, don't call it a disciplined speculation, but if you're willing to gamble, I think the the the biggest best known names in the sector are the ones that will get that money first, >> right? What what I mean by the question is two years ago having cash would have been the very important thing, right? So, so you know, blue chip names or or whatever you might want to call them in mining. I don't even know if we have those given the the business of mining, but two years ago having cash would have been very important. Is having cash they as important as having high grade or is having a high marketing budget now as important as having a low GNA two years ago? That that's the type of thing. >> Yeah. No. um in the context that we're talking about of of the mania phase being next, like if that's your bet, you're betting on the mania phase being next. No, none of those fundamentals matter. You know, if if the crappy boats will rise with that tide two, then you know, if you're going to compare Agniko to Numont to Bareric or whatever, and the market's not going to care. They're just go, "Oh, big gold company. Me likes." Right. >> Mhm. >> It's a mania. It's a that, you know, when when when the mark when Mr. Market is going manic, he's not being rational. You're not making a a value decision at that point. >> That goes in line with what he said before about if you're, you know, penny dreadfuls haven't run yet during this bull market. There might be something there. And then maybe you have to what what do you do? I mean, do you sell them instantly? Do you call up management and be like, "What's going on? Your stock's not going up." Or what do you do? >> What What's management going to tell you? Yeah, it's my cousin Bertha. that She keeps selling our stock, but everything's fine. Uh, no. So actually the the actual answer is and and this is something you may have heard Rick Rule talking about in his recent interviews is the the market like we don't know what's going to happen next but most of the stocks are doing well except for the ones that are really you know I think giving you this red flag signal you know like uh even even stocks that have underdelled underperformed things that have been dragging along the floor from 2,000 to 3,000 they didn't move. Like that was a red flag already. Why didn't the stock respond from gold like going up 50%. Now from 3,000 to 4,000 those are moving. Most of those are moving. So if you got something that's still not moving, I think is really DOA. Um but if it is moving, that gives you a chance to correct mistakes. Mr. Market is giving us the gift of being willing to buy things that we now regret having bought. Like if you've got any of those in your portfolio, who cares if coins gold's going to 10,000 next? It might go to 2,000 next. We don't know. What we do know is that right now Mr. Market is willing to take the dogs off our hands. And uh Rick has I it might be the first time I've heard him publicly talk about making mistakes in such a way like he he's humble and he'll talk about his mistakes, but he's been talking about using this opportunity to to reach the point of no concern. By the way, he's not waiting for a timing episode. He's selling now to go risk-free. and he's using this opportunity to exit several mistakes that he's made. I have done the same and will continue. I have maybe one or two more that I'm not happy with that I'm I'm looking to do the same as well. Um, you know, that that's a great thing if if you buy something, you get you bamboozled by management or you just miss something in your due diligence or just the story didn't deliver the way you wanted, like everything was correct, but the drilling didn't turn up what you expected and it's underperformed, underperformed, you wish you never bought it. Now is the time to accept Mr. Market's gift. And if you can if you can get out of that position with your money intact, like forget about big wins or, you know, holding on for a double or something like that, you just get your money back off the table. What a fantastic gift. That is absolutely um something that I would not I'm not I'm telling you right now. I'm doing this. This is what I'm doing with my own money is I'm taking the opportunity to get out of mistakes. >> Well, would that be different though? I wonder because you you only do mining. you you have been doing only mining and hopefully you will be doing only mining for at least another 60 years. So what would you do it the same if you were not only doing mining like if mining or or junior mining specifically was only let's say 10% of your portfolio because you wanted those big gains, right? Those kind of your your crap shoots if you will or something like that. It it it's your your better alternative to a casino really. Would you still be of the opinion that, you know, nobody went broke taking a profit and and and you should take something off the table? Would you still do it the same? >> Sure. Perhaps all the more reason, you know, why why do we even have tax laws, which by the way is coming up? >> You know, we have it to offset our gains in one sector or in some companies or stocks with losses in others to uh you know, pay less taxes. So, you know, it un you know, if you think about it, we in the we gold bugs, we've been suffering from underperformance and and when tax loss season coming, we've been we've been looking at it saying, "Well, gee, which ones of our stocks are get hammered this tax loss season?" And maybe that's a buying opportunity, right? But this year, we'll be the ones who are looking at our stocks and saying, "Gee, we've got these big wins. You know, where are the underperformers? you know, maybe I need to sell this tech stock or something that I have that didn't deliver is to take the tax loss to offset my big wins in the gold space. That's a much more happy tax tax law season. Uh for a long like me >> um but so I I lost track of the question that was relevant to your question, but exactly what was the question? >> Would you do it the same if you were not only doing >> Right. So Doug Casey taught and and a method that I try to share with the audience is is you don't want to put all your eggs in one basket. Ideally, Doug would say that you want to have 10 completely different speculation types. Like silver is not a diversification for gold. You know, they're too close, right? Even copper is not a diversification for gold. Maybe uranium that, you know, that's pretty different or oil or whatever, but even that is still natural resources, right? So, you know, in Doug's mind, it's like real estate, art, like paintings, right? And gold and gold mining stocks, right? You know, completely different areas that that you speculate in. Um, so that you can rotate and if you make a bunch of money in gold now, while gee, arts on sale, uh, and that could that could literally happen, right? you know, if if it's economic turmoil that does send gold from four 5,000 to 10,000 or something like that, how many people are going to be out there buying, you know, Van Goes and whatnot. You know, a lot of people are not going to be, you know, even even the 1% of the 1% are going to feel that squeeze and you might find Van Goes on sale rather than soaring in prices. So, what a great time to have big wins in your gold stocks. Like, if gold goes to 10,000 bucks and our stocks go absolutely insane. Like, you think the all-time highs we've seen now are ludicrous mode, that's nothing compared to what would happen if we get a bonafide mania. Like, this is not a mania. What's happening now is pretty frothy. But the shoe shine boy is not telling you about the gold stocks he's buying. And, you know, the bartender is not giving you silver stock tips. That's not happening yet. So, you know, if we get to that stage all and I assume that your audience and mine, you know, we all own some of this stuff already. We we will have we will be asking ourselves, what do we do with all this money? And so, to your point and to what Doug Casey taught, I guess you should be looking at other areas. Um, in the metals and mining space, which is my wheelhouse, I am looking to rotate more into copper. That's my big next thing. And I know you're going to ask that so I frontr run your question, but I am to the degree that I am taking profits already or or exiting my mistakes, I'm building cash to rotate into copper because I do think that there will be serious fortunes to be made in the coming years on copper. But I'm also I'm I'm I'm thinking of paying off my mortgage. >> And people say, you know, you got a low mortgage from when interest rates were low. that's an asset, you know, compared to the bank's liability or, you know, rates, you know. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. But if things go into reverse or, you know, let's say, you know, let's say, um, something happens and the rules change and the the SEC starts shutting down newsletters and my revenue goes away from that. I need to live just on my investments and how I've deployed my capital. At that point, you know, I don't need to tell you how expensive my mortgage is on a monthly payment basis, but it's significant. Not having that monthly payment, like having a low interest rate on a debt doesn't take away the fact that you have a debt. Like, you owe that money. So, having the house completely paid off and only need needing to pay the condo fees, you know, that would that would give me a world of peace in my mind in, you know, if things change in our in our market spaces. So yeah, I you know and or another way of putting this would be let's say that there gold bugs are right you know the the world is a house of cards the financial house of cards comes crashing down the the disasters that we expected in 2008 let's suppose those happen in 2026 because of all the changes that in the world well at that point you know Amazon's on sale. Walmart's on sale. Even Nvidia is on sale, right? Everything else is out there. And I'm not just picking tech stocks. Notice Amazon, you know, and and Walmart. Like, everything else out there is is on sale. And if you're looking for an opportunity to diversify the eggs in the baskets and and you know, a company like Amazon is very unlikely to just dry up and blow away, right? They'll take hits, there'll be problems, but they have a a huge moat in their core businesses. And you know, Walmart is the largest retailer in the world. Like, you know, if you can get that kind of blue chip stock, you know, on sale for pennies on the dollar because of a market panic. Even even the dead cat p dead cat bounce could double your money, never mind what happens later. So I'm, you know, I'm likely to stay with mostly metals and mining stocks because that's what I know. But I do think it is you a rational speculator whose goal is not to be religious about mining stocks, but whose goal is just to make money, uh, you absolutely would want to use the opportunity to take some profits and diversify into other sectors. >> Are you sure you want to sell newsletters, though? Well, I you know, we're joking, but my honest hope is that well, a if we do go in the manic phase, people will remember that I didn't say it's impossible. I didn't, you know, I'm not actually a bear right now. I'm a wolf. I'm I'm trying to be a savvy, smart hunting wolf looking for value. That's all. Um, so you know, but if it goes down and all the rah rah, it's going to the moon people turn out to be crying in their beers next month, then I hope people will remember that I wasn't on that bandwagon of rah rah rah, it's going to the moon. And I hope that let's let's put it this way. I I've always hated the tortoise and the hair story. It's stupid. Of course, the rabbit wins. He only doesn't win because he falls asleep and he takes a nap or whatever. In real life, that's not going to happen. you cross the finish line and then you take a nap and have a beer or whatever. Um, so I've never liked that story, but there is something to that idea of slow and steady over time as opposed to chasing after the hype and exhausting yourself. Like I I think that's actually what my business plan is. And and so I'm I'm hoping that over time people were like, "Yeah, Lobo doesn't get them all right, but he gets more right than he gets wrong and we make money over time." >> Well, hopefully we can revisit in 60 years and see if that's true. >> We'll see. >> 100 plus year old speculator or maybe at the time 99 year old speculator gets it right 60 years in a row. That would be a funny episode right there. What's uh >> if you don't mind you know just brief brief advert here like there's my portfolio and that's the thing I'm doing disastrously is selling right now by making money. There's also my take which has no portfolio. It's it's not a newsletter really. It's a database with about a thousand companies in it. Um and the the idea there is not oh what's what's the stock pick that's going to the moon. The idea there is that if if you haven't been to the projects, you don't have a due diligence team, or maybe you don't have quite the level of experience that some other people might have, my take can help you with that. You know, we're a research tool, and whether you agree with me or not, whether you're a bull or a bear, whatever, if you can have independent analysis of companies that's not paid for by the companies, I think that's very valuable. And it has nothing to do with timing markets, bullishness, bearishness, what's going up or down. It's just independent analysis. So, if I want to sell a newsletter, pardon me for throwing that in. That that would be the one. Like, let's say you disagree with everything I'm saying about where the markets are going or how to diversify. Fine. Throw all that out. As long as you don't think I'm a crook who's taking money to promote companies that don't deserve it, then you know I I think that service could be very valuable to you. >> Is that going to save me from the dollar going to zero though? >> Can't do that. But I can tell you when a company is a lifestyle company to be avoided at all costs. >> What What do you think is the biggest risk for for people speculating in mining stocks right now? Is it not? Well, I initially wanted to ask where it's not owning enough, but clearly that's not the risk. Is it not selling on time, not selling enough, not owning quality, uh chasing lightings in in bottles, chasing those lifestyles? What's the Yeah. What's the biggest trap here? >> I think the the the literal answer to your question may not be the most helpful one. So, let me give you two answers. I do think the biggest trap is that people start believing their own BS or even their own truth, if you will. Let's say you're right. I mean, the dollar debasement thing that's happening. I mean, by the way, it's hilarious to me that the debasement trade that's now capitalized on Wall Street, you know, the DT, the debasement trade, and and Wall Street titans are talking about the debasement trade and the hairspray heads on on financial media are talking about the debasement trade. Like, they just discovered monetary debasement, this new phenomenon. I mean it's something that your audience and mine we've been talking about it for years and years and suddenly the mainstream is catching on which does make me a little nervous by the way. Um but the point is like you know we have this belief let's say for example that the debasement of the dollar is good for monetary metals and commodities and things and and that that can be completely true but that didn't help us from 2012 to 2015 right so we were right but but if you bought at the top in 2011 and then the next five years happened you and you know it taken extraordinary fortitude to not panic and sell and end up reversing the formula and buying high and selling low. >> And so believing your own narrative, you know, we like to laugh and dismiss the the mainstream narratives we see, but it but your own narrative, what you hear in your own echo chamber is extremely dangerous to us. There's a my my favorite line from the Bible is I think it was Jesus. Jesus says, you know, look not to the speck in your brother's eye, but to the plank in your own. That is just so human. Who I mean, not Jesus, like the human thing is to to criticize and see the faults in everybody else's thinking, but my thinking is perfect, right? You know, oh yes, I've got it figured out. I know best. That leads to enormous uh investment mistakes. Like if you're wrong, obviously it make results in mistakes. Even if you're right, to pull another Rick ruleism is confusing the inevitable with the imminent, right? Ma massive mistakes in investments. If you're too early by enough time, that's the same as being wrong because opportunity cost exceeds your gains, right? So, um I I do so this is kind of a philosophical answer to your question, you know. I but I but I do think this results in a lot of pain and in and serious erosion of capital because people just get so convinced of something and they bet on something that's inevitable but it's not imminent. It's certainly not happening now. Um but that's so a more practical takeaway is just I think people are insufficiently skeptical of these mining company CEOs and you you you go to the show and you talk to the guy or the gal and they're so friendly. They're so nice. They know more than you do about their projects. So, they're ready and they can answer all your questions usually. Actually, by the way, dear audience, even if you're not an expert, I'm I'm not paid by the conferences to promote them, but I do think it's worth going to these conferences to ask the CEOs these questions. And if they answer them all, great. Well, that may or may not prove that how great it is. But if they can answer basic questions like, "How much money do you have? How how much is your drill program this year?" Right? If they can't answer those questions, that's a clear red flag and a reason to stay away from that stock. So, anybody can do that level of due diligence. You know, you get that used car salesman vibe from a CEO, that's actually tradable input data for you. >> So, the the more practical or immediately obvious takeaway that I'm giving you, Antonio, and the audience is you really really need to be skeptical. the the disciplined speculators card rule virtue I think is not just a healthy dose of skepticism you know never mind the grain or the bucket but like a barrel you know a dump truck full of skepticism something like that you need to if you'll pardon the crudity the loboism here is that if you assume you'll rarely be disappointed >> and it's you know it's it's their job to to prove to you not to suggest to you not buy you a beer here, not hand you a little free pen at the booth, you know, gold colored pen, you know, but to pro to prove to you that your skepticism is wrong. Yeah. A caterpillar se 797 full of full of skepticism is is needed. This is the reason why when I when I talk to CEOs, you know, I would get those comments like, "Oh, this interview is an hour and a half long. It should be 15 minutes." You're not getting much in in 15 minutes. And if if you're not really willing to to put in at least that basic amount of time to get those basics out, that that might be one of the bigger risks right now, especially with these valuations and and and the state of the market. That's also what what I'm getting out >> for your That's an interesting point for your business. I don't know if our audiences would sit still for a Lex Freriedman style three or four hour conversation, but this is this is actually important, dear audience. A bullshitter like a psychopath, a garden variety bullshitter can for 10, 15 minutes, maybe 20 minutes, half an hour, no problem. They've got all these glib answers, >> you know, how you going to deal with that low grade. Well, but you know, outside the aabaska basin, this is great, right? You know, they've got all these answers, but those run out after 15, 20 minutes, maybe 30 minutes. I won't say max because there are some very polished and accomplished psychopaths out there that could just lie for hours and hours. But your your garden variety IR person can't. >> And so a long conversation is it's not just time to dig deeper into details, but it's time to run out of pat answers. >> And so if you're doing that, my friend, then then I commend you for that because perhaps we'll start getting more um more of the truth out there. >> Not not out there somewhere, Skully. >> I met someone very big name in mining. Um, but I don't necessarily want to throw in Bayer under the bus, but the response I got is sure, we'll get them on, send us a list of questions and we'll think about it. And the first thing was like, it's not happening. Um, I can tell you that the topic is going to be, you know, the general health of the company, if you will, or something like that. And then they're like, let's book a call first to talk about, you know, doing the interview. It's like, we're not going to rehearse it. And then eventually when you keep pushing back, they're like, oh, but he doesn't do longer than 30 minutes. That's a red flag. And at that point, I just check out. And it's like, well, it's unfortunate. it would have been a big name, you know, a good interview, probably attract a decent audience. Um, I'm not doing it. Um, and and so that actually is is kind of a an answer in and of itself. I I even thought about making a list of companies that decline, you know, doing long form interviews, but that's a bit of a sneaky move. Maybe I'll do it if this really is a bull market and not a riata. >> I hope in your own little black book, you do have that list. Publishing that list could get you sued. By the way, on on my front, you know, I'm usually the one being interviewed, but I do grill the occasional CEO. You do. And I require them to sign a media release that's completely one-sided. Like, I could draw Mickey Mouse ears over their head on the video and publish that whether they liked it or not. Of course, I don't do that, but I don't pull my punches. And and and there are companies that, well, you know, we'd like to do this, but our lawyers say we can't sign this release. And uh I have a list of those >> uh for yourself then. Um maybe you should make that part of my take, but uh that that might risk uh you know, whatever it is non-disclosure. >> You know, I'm somewhat surprised I haven't been sued yet for some of the things that I've said because I'm I'm pretty blunt. But you know, if I'm wrong, dear company CEO, show me why I'm wrong. >> How much cash are you keeping right now in this market? Um not in absolute Well, if you want to tell me absolute terms, go ahead. But no, I mean uh percentage terms, how much uh how much of the portfolio is is not invested right now? >> Um I'm actually much higher in cash. It's looking like 30 35% cash right now. >> Um because I have taken some profits. I've had some upside maximizer triggered and you know I I love the pre-production sweet plot and I've had some some of those mature so I have some cash and as we mentioned earlier I've been waiting to rotate into uh into copper like I'm I'm a gold bull I've got lots of gold and silver stocks I'm I'm happy for them to go higher but I'm not going to buy high and hope to sell higher myself that's not my discipline so to you to the degree that I get stopped out or I get triggered or I reach my end goal on any of my stocks that are that are up this year, then that has been going to cash this year and I've been waiting for it, you know, with minimal interest rate there, waiting for the next rotation. >> And that that is not a a record high for me, but that's pretty close. I usually I want to have at least some cash in case a once in a-lifetime opportunity comes up, but I don't want to have that much in cash normally. I mean, it's it's that is a measure of how I see this market right now. You know, I'm I'm I'm not willing to just pile back into gold and silver because it's not a buy low, sell high setting in my view and I'm waiting still for the next big move. So, I'm I'm more cash rich than I normally am now. That's interesting because it's there's no like money on the sidelines type of thing. I I I kind of always laugh when I hear it, but it's you don't have money on the sidelines. your long gold or or or your long if you well if you consider that money which or your cash portfolio position for me >> okay >> like you know what I mean >> sure >> uh or like so I I don't I don't have treasuries or CDs or something like that the cash that I have is literally cash in my 12 No that's I have very little I don't even have a savings account like in a regular bank I do not have a savings account when I have money I want to I buy bullion. >> Yeah. >> And oh, and by the way, would I buy gold at 4 4,300 if it was physical bullion and I had cash that I wanted to put away for the long term? Yes, I would. By the way, I mean, when we're talking about buying, you know, trading and investing and speculating, I'm talking about the stocks. Bullion, in my view, as you know, we've talked about this. It's not an investment. It's not a speculation. It's insurance. It's savings. It's, you know, it's physical wealth that I can hold in my hand. and there's no counterparty risk, right? So, completely different question. Um, so that that's where I put long-term savings is bullion. >> Yeah. >> Uh, the cash that I'm holding is not a portfolio position. It's just cash waiting to be deployed in in new speculations. >> Why not put it on your pinky? >> Uh, by the way, since you mentioned it, the the the wolf on here whing it the wrong way. that's uh designed by my eldest >> and so >> I'm very proud to have a family sigil there. >> That's really cool. Um but to to that point though, Lobo, sentiment seems very mixed as a whole judging by the online chatter alone. I live online. I don't have another life. So maybe maybe that will change if there's a good bull market too. But some people are saying, you know, precious precious metals and mining bull markets, they still have a lot more to go. Others are saying nobody went broke taking a profit. Cough cough, right? But when when is this bull market going to be over though? Um I I suppose now is when you pull up the the crystal ball or the magic eight bowl there, but what has to happen? What are some of the signals that you'll be looking for to be like this is really coming to an end here? I mean, now you say it's getting maybe frothy. When is it coming to an end? >> I am not joking, my friend. I can't turn it towards the camera because it won't work. But as you said, are we coming towards an end? The magic eightball. It says yes, definitely. I don't think I can do this. Uh, >> it does say yes, definitely. Yeah, I can see it. >> Uh, I'm not making a decision based on the magic eightball, dear audience. I just think that's very funny and I couldn't resist um the opportunity. So again, the the non-newsletter selling answer is I don't know and I don't think anybody knows and I do think that anybody who says they know are an active threat to your wealth and well-being. But that doesn't mean I just throw up my hands and say, "Okay, um I have, as you know, the upside maximizer strategy, which is sort of like using stop- losses, but but a ratcheting stop-loss on my gains so that I don't know when it tops, when it rolls over, but when it does, I get triggered and that way my big wins don't slip through my fingers." So, you know, Doug Casey, he taught me the the way to reach the point of no concern was to sell half on the first double, right? And then after that, you've got your money back. You can't lose. Whatever happens after that, it's just pure profit. Um Marian Katusa, my former uh brother in arms there at Casey Research, dubbed that the Casey Free ride, the Casey Free Ride formula. Sell half on the first double. The problem with that was that if you got a 10bagger, it turned it into a five bagger and so on. And people hated that. When when we sold half on the first double and that thing just kept going, right, people hated that. So, not just responding to the hate, but thinking about that, you know, they have a point. You know, why why just go ahead and sell? Well, you never know what's going to happen. I get that. So, that's why I came up with this idea of using stops not as stop losses. Our stocks are so volatile >> that a stoploss trigger is actually often a good signal for a buying opportunity. Like sometimes, okay, there's a coup d'eta, right? or the legendary endangered mosquito is discovered on the property and the stock falls off a cliff and yeah, a stop-loss would be great there. But that actually doesn't happen very often. Much more often is some fund somewhere is facing redemptions and they just liquidate in a large position or a broker with a big account um you know gets caught with his hand in the cookie jar, has to sell a bunch of positions, you know, something like that. you know, a a whale shareholder in an ugly divorce can can take a share price for these juniors, right, that are not that big and take them down 30 40% in a day. So, stop losses as such are very dangerous in in the thin markets that you and I uh focus on. But if you use them or something like that, you know, as I say, with a ratcheting mechanism where it doesn't it doesn't get triggered, not on intraday volatility, I use closes, but you just let it ride. Then instead of selling half on the first double, you take some profits when the stock rolls over, wherever that is. And so let's say let's say the 10bagger instead of turning it into a five bagger selling half on the first double let's say we get triggered by some volatility when it's a sevenbagger and it still goes on to become a 10bagger before the end of the game. Well, if I'm now taking my profits, I don't even have to sell half. I could just recover my initial investment and leave the larger bulk like 6x still on the table. or if I'm really nervous about it, selling half would still leave more money on the table than if I sold at the first double. So, I call it the upside maximizer because that doesn't mean that I'm able to top tick the market. I mean that it's on average a way to lock in a much a more maximum level of gains than selling half on the first double. >> And to the market timing question, nobody can time markets reliably. I certainly don't claim to be able to do so. But let's say not just one, but all of my upside or most of my mark my upside maximizers start getting triggered. Boom, boom, boom, pop, pop, pop. They're all rolling over. Well, that's not just one company. That's not one endangered mosquito on the property, right? Something is happening to the sector at that point. And that would be a that would be interesting data. And you you you'd look at the macro. You try to think about what's going on. But if all of my upside maximizers are getting triggered, I would certainly look hard at maybe not just recovering my initial investment but taking the bulk of the profits instead or you know if something is close to the endgame you know if it's a pre-production sweet spot one week from first pour maybe I just go ahead and sell the whole thing at that point right so what I'm saying is if you have you don't have to you know do what I'm doing but you should have an exit strategy you should have a method and you should be prepared prepared to execute it and if you do that with discipline then I think even if you don't know where the market tops you can buy low and sell high >> so your advice is buy low and sell high >> breaking news super re revelation nobody ever told us that before >> what do you I'm giving you a tip on how to execute the sell high part and by the way that upside maximizer there's a report on the website that's available It's a free demo. >> Well, you just mentioned copper a little earlier there. Um, I would have almost expected it to be nickel had I not spoken to you about nickel about a year ago and nothing's really changed or not much has really changed about nickel since then. Um, Rick Rule disagrees with that. Recently spoke to him about that. So, he he he says that that's that is the contrarian play right now. Yours seems to be copper. Why why copper, not nickel? because the demand for copper is increasing now whereas nickel is a I would agree with Rick in that it's not an if it's a when question >> right it's not just well but but to go with Rick's thing it's inevitable I would say that higher nickel prices are inevitable it's necessary it's used in stainless steel um many other things it's it's not something that can just be substituted away at some point nickel prices will have to go higher but he himself would say never confuse the inevitable with the imminent now he's retired so-called um and he manages money for one client Rick Rule >> and so his one client will be very patient with him so if he's you know he likes to buy hate he says and nickel is hated right now so this is a classic brick rule opportunity I'm going to buy the hated thing which will not go away even lobo says nickel inevitably will at some point go higher. Let's say that takes 5 years. His one client Rick Rule is not going to complain. But me as an evil scum of the earth newsletter writer, if I say let's buy hate, let's pile in a nickel now and it takes 5 years, you know, I will be I'll be, you know, burned in effigy and hung from lamp post and papier-mâché and all that stuff about what a terrible call that that nickel call was. And again, too early is wrong in markets. So nickel may be inevitable, but I'm not going to say it's imminent. And copper, I see not only is inevitable and not just imminent, but it's actually happening now. I was more in the imminent campaign earlier this year, but the there have been not just one or two, but there have been multiple supply disruptions that have copper doing better this year than I thought it would given the macro circumstance. >> So, I mean, I'm extremely bullish. I think the the pipeline of the necessary copper projects, the big worldass projects that can meet the demand that I don't think the audience needs me to beat that to death. It's not just AI and electric cars. It's it's Dr. Copper for a reason. And these other things on top of that just add even more demand. So you look at that and you look at the lack of of big mines and the difficulty permitting them even in in relatively promining places like Peru and Chile. Permitting these gigantic massive holes in the ground that people want to make is difficult >> and timeconuming even when successful. So this is this is one where if I wasn't worried about Trump shock causing lower prices in the very nearest term, I would be deploying that capital that we just talked about now in copper. I'm I'm I'm that confident of that. I I happen to see or I think that we're going to get a better buying opportunity in the nearest term. So I'm holding for that. If I'm right, then it will increase my gains. Buy low, right? If I'm wrong, I'm so bullish on this thesis going forward that okay, I'll have to pay more than I would pay if I bought right now, but I'll still make a ton of money based on how much higher I think it will then go. This this isn't something that it's not like gold or silver that could go, you know, moonshot manic move next could happen. you know, copper will will it can surge and eb and flow, but it I'm looking at steady a steady upward to the right chart for years to come ahead. And so if that's if that's my expectation, I feel no FOMO. I feel no reason to rush. And again, as a public figure with people looking over my shoulder, 40,000 very best friends, right? You know, I would hate to say, "Yeah, just don't worry about it. Just buy copper stocks. It's going to be great for years." And then they drop 50% next month because there's this huge blow up in the trade war or something. >> Well, I fully expected it to be rare earth elements actually with everything that's been going on. But uh copper's fine too. Yeah. What what's uh do stuff like that can incite FOMO though in in in myself and then I'm sure a lot of other people as well. Not in you though. It seems like you don't really care about it. You shrug your shoulders a little bit. Um yeah. What do you make of that? How do you deal with, you know, trends like that? >> Well, let me step even further outside. Um, if you had listened to me about Bitcoin when it broke $1,000, actually, I think it was around 1,200 bit, but that was the first time Bitcoin surpassed the price of an ounce of gold. When when that happened, I was very negative. I thought, oh, I mean, I mean, actually, I love the idea of cryptocurrencies. I love the idea of a form of money that's not created by governments and and you know decentralized well you know who who who guarantees this nobody. Well that's better than a profleate government that guarantees it's going to print more of them. I mean their goal of 2% inflation that their goal is to make your money worth less by at least 2% every year. So in that kind of world, you know, I love the idea of cryptos, but where I my to your question, the point is if you had listened to me, when Bitcoin topped $1,200 a bitcoin, you missed out on a 100 bagger. This is a true fact. You can go back and look at this. I wrote about this in my Casey days. Now, I think from that 1,200 point, it did retreat 50%. And I, you know, it had gone up and I I thought, "Wow, that's that's that's too rich." And so over the next couple years, I looked like a genius. I was right. There was a hockey stick and a pullback was coming. You know, it turned out to be one of those having things, I guess. Um, but it but it but this is I'm telling you the truth. This is a true thing. If you had listened to me when Bitcoin crossed 1,200, you literally your opportunity cost was literally a 100 bagger. I cost anybody who listened to me that. I cost myself that. But to the to your question, I don't feel any remorse about that at all. It was a complete unknown. You know, the Bitcoin maxis will tell you, "Ah, we knew it was going to the moon. There's only going to be 21 million of them forever." It had to. It didn't have to. I mean, who knows what could have could have gone differently. Um, anybody can say that in hindsight, but at the time, you know, what did we know about Bitcoin? you know, it would not have been a rational, disciplined decision to say, "Yeah, let's go to Bitcoin. It's going to 100,000." Um, it would have been a gamble. And yes, you can make a lot of money. You can get a 100 beggar on a gamble, but reliably, consistently over time, you know, okay, let's say you made 100x on your on your Bitcoin. Where's the next 100x coming from? And if anybody tells you I know for sure this will be 100x extra money, I think it would be prudent to suspect a snake oil salesman at that point. So no, I don't I don't I don't feel bad about that. Actually, uh, if anything, my guidance at that time gave people capital to even if they were into Bitcoin, if they sold at 1,200 that time, they could have bought back in at 700 or whatever it went down to, 600 and and made more money. Their 100 bagger could have been a 200 bagger if they had bought the dip later. Um, but that's not my thing. And you you can't reliably make money chasing after whatever is hot at the moment. If you do that, you end up being the greater fool. At some point, you will absolutely pile into something that you're that you're convinced is going to the moon and it will be wrong and you will wipe out your capital. So, this fits into something I said earlier. If you're looking for somebody that's going to nail all those hockey sticks for you, I can't do that. I don't think anybody can do that. I think it's much better to invest in somebody that can reliably, consistently over time deliver more gains than losses. >> And and so I don't aim for the moon. I rarely swing for the bleachers. I'm happy to get solid base hits and bring those home runs in, you know, game after game. >> Yeah, as a European, I totally know what you're saying there. By the way, >> I don't have a soccer metaphor for that. If you're British, you know that you know there's maybe there's a cricket metaphor there. >> I know you don't have all day to sit around look at my face. We're going to have to do this again soon, but not really this. We're going to have to follow up on our mini minieries there that we uh started maybe what a year and a half ago, two years maybe at this point. We'll talk about producers takeover targets, land banks and stuff like that hopefully next time. But uh I'm all out for now. What do you What else did you want to talk about today that I'm failing to bring up? I just want to leave people not with a sales pitch. Don't don't click off yet. The idea I want to leave you with is I'm not bearish. There is I think I I can't put a probability on it that would be invented, but I think there is a significant chance that the next big move in gold and silver is actually that blowoff top. Um I would prefer that wasn't the case. I would much rather have a steady build over the years. But as a as a fundamentalist and not a chartist, you know, looking at dollar debasement and other these other things, I would rather see a consolidation period, another move fired, another consolidation period like we saw at 2,000 and we saw at 3,000. I'd rather see that now and have years to make money on this trend. Then if if it really goes manic, great. Don't forget to take profits because the next thing after a manic move, it's always a crash down to reality. So, um, I'm not trying to rain on the parade, but the but the worst thing in the world if you're a gold bull who's been waiting decades for this and you're right and your stocks do go to the moon and you don't take any profits and they all go back down to, you know, the center of the earth afterwards, uh, you will never forgive yourself for that. So, you don't have to sell out. You know, I'm not calling a market top, but as Antonio has been kind enough to uh poke my eye on several times, I am absolutely saying that nobody goes broke taking profits, and you should have a method for assuring that you do. >> Thank you so much for your time today. This is great. >> Thank you, Antonio.
Why Lobo Tiggre is Not Buying Gold & Silver Stocks Right Now
Summary
Transcript
Today on Resource Talks, Lobo Tiger is back to talk to me about the mining stock bull market, how to navigate it, and uh or at least whatever is left of it, and potentially what the next bull market in mining is going to be. Just briefly for people watching or listening, if you want a summary of this conversation and all the other interviews that we do on Resource Talks, go to resourcealks.com. There's a free newsletter. It goes out once a week with a bullet point summary of all the conversations from the week before. But, uh, Lobo, it's been a while since you and I sat down, so I'll shut up already and let you do the talking, but thank you for coming back on. >> Happy to be on the show. >> Pleasure is mine. And, uh, you know, it really has been a while. I think it might have been a year or something like that. How have you been since we last spoke? What's new? What's old? How's life? >> Well, um, my portfolio has doubled then since the last time we spoke, so can't complain. on paper or are you taking any profits? >> That is the current or so my year-to- date gain is like 99% showing on my Schwab account. Now, that might sound like I'm bragging, but since the GDX is up 125% or something year to date, you can say, "Gee, Lobo, you're underperforming the benchmark." Um, so maybe I've just embarrassed myself, but it is what it is. I I can say I I just happened we were talking track record off camera before we started so I just glanced uh over the last two years it's up 230%. So I'm making money and I can't complain. And sorry, just you asked on this subject. I might as well say, look, if you're looking for the guy who's going to give you the next 10bagger for sure, right? 100 extra money driving into the stock. I've I'm I'm not the guy who targets the biggest wins ever, swings for the bleachers every time. I actually try to make money consistently on all of my picks and I don't on all of my picks, but I'd much rather consistently reliably make money over time then be the guy who gets lucky sometimes and gets wiped out other times. Certainly don't want my clients getting wiped out. >> So, what is that one little small cap junior that's going to 20x over the rest of the world? That's how you sell newsletters logo. You didn't you didn't figure that out yet? >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I'm I'm I'm totally flubbing it here. So, this is actually a market question and I think it's really important. Um, and in a way, we're being handed an opportunity here to really separate the wheat from the chaff. And that is if you think you found some overlooked gem of a mining gold company or or uranium company, you know, that's got something great and and nobody else realizes it, you're going to make your fortune betting on this company because all the money's gone somewhere else. That is highly unlikely. You know, as Doug Casey used to say, chances are slim to none and slims out of town. If the market is not recognizing the share price, this is a public company. The information that you have is out there. And by the way, you know, the the Orion mine finances of the world and the Wheatens and the Franco, they've got the same data and they've got a much bigger due diligence team than even I have, right? So if if everybody's taking a pass on this and only you have discovered this unknown gem, just probably not the case. probably the market is passing judgment on this and there's something wrong with that company or the project that you haven't identified. It doesn't say on the PowerPoint presentation that the local natives are burning the CEO and effigy or something like that. >> That's actually something that I do want to talk about is to what then is the next thing where like where do I find value in in this in the space and I will I'll definitely be back to that point. And I've made a note to to come back to it, but just going back to the point that you said about that the GDXG, it's up 150% year to year. >> What a slouch. I'm only up 99%. >> Well, but so no, I'm actually wondering why that is. I mean, you obviously know how to pick quality and all that. And and like even some of my stocks are running. So this this really is a bull market, but they're not running as much as some others, though. And and as as you would know, I don't really pay attention to metals prices as much anymore. I pick my own stuff kind of bottom up now. Um, so I'm fine with them not running as much for me specifically, but it seems like it's more of a a sectorwide thematic where again the tide hasn't lifted all boats yet. So I is is that time going to come eventually? Like are some of the stuff that that have not yet run, are we going to see them go up eventually? >> If it does, beware. Like that's not a healthy thing. If even the the the crappiest boats that don't just have a hole in their hole like like it's broken in half, the Titanic on the bottom of the ocean, if the tide lifts that puppy, you know, that's pretty scary in that world. So, so beware and and absolutely don't let yourself believe that it's the best company ever. Um, if you don't mind, let me jump back a moment. So, I mentioned the gain year to date on my portfolio and that does include profit taking and and some selling. So, that like that's an that's a that's an actual number from my Schwab portfolio. Uh it's not a an entry point exit point. It's not a hypothetical gain or something like that. So, uh maybe it would be different if I just calculated the low point and the end point, right? Uh but we can come back to that. We can talk track record if you want. But the main point to your point right now for this and I love that we didn't start with where's gold going next. If if there's an overlook gem there, it's probably not an overlooked gem. It's on sale or it's not responding to gold for a reason. And that's a and if at the very least it's a red flag and you need to be careful and you should dig and dig and dig until you find out why it's not responding. And if you can't figure it out, don't buy it. If you can figure it out and you think the market is wrong, like there's a political risk, let's say, assigned to it that's exaggerated. Let's say it's a Yukon play and people are still scared of the Yukon because of the Victoria Mine disaster, uh, which isn't true, but let's as an example, like it and and you were convinced that the market was wrong about the Yukon, that might be a reason to buy an overlooked gem. But if you can't figure it out, don't buy it. you're you know and if you can't and if you can't figure out you know you find that there is something wrong then that's definitely something to pay attention to. Um, at this point in the market, I mean, come on. We're we're between we're I don't even know if as we're speaking, we're closer to $4,300 gold, then to $4,200 gold, silver, not just touching its all-time nominal high over 50, but staying there for a week. Like, this is a very strong market and people are looking for opportunities. Um, so this is not the time to be bottom feeding. This is not a buy low, sell high type opportunity. If you're long, great. If you're new to the sector, you need to understand that if you start buying everything that's running now, you're hoping on the greater fool. You know, that's the greater fool strategy. You're buying high and hoping to sell even higher. Uh people can make money doing that. You know, who's to know gold won't double again from here? It could. Um, but it could be that we're near at least an interim top and if you chase it now, you'll regret it in a few months or a year. >> So, the tide's only lifting the the high quality expensive yachts essentially. It's more like a regata, not a bull market, I suppose. to to actually to follow that metaphor in terms of telling the audience something they could use to make money or not. Let's say, you know, we we let's say we're going into the blowoff mania phase, like the next big move is actually up, like majorly up. As as much as we might think, oh, we're already here. $4,000 gold, that's that's the destination. Ah, close enough to 5,000, right? Well, not really. If it goes screaming up to 5,000 and then goes screeching into reverse, the stocks will go nuts. I mean, from here to 5,000 is a big enough difference and the headlines that that will be making. And the Johnny come lately, you know, the the FOMO will really kick in in a big way. I mean, you've got Ray Dallio and Gunlock telling people that 20 25% allocated to gold is not too much. You know, was it Morgan Stanley or one of those Morgan type outfits? Oh, Jamie Diamond said it's not completely irrational to own gold. Like if this is the beginning of the mania, not the end, but if this is the beginning of that that vertical leap in the mania phase, that implies much higher prices immediately ahead. If that's what's happening, and I'm not predicting this, I'm not promising this. I'm not telling anybody to rush in because the mania is coming. I'm saying if if this is happening, yes, that rising tide will likely lift everything higher. But to your regata point, where does the new person who doesn't know anything about gold and doesn't know which companies are are excellent operators and not which ones are lifestyle juniors and which ones actually have discoveries of merit, right? They don't know any of this. Where are they going to go? They're going to go to what Doug Casey used to call the go-to companies, right? the the best of the blue chips, the the biggest and the best known names. So, ironically, in this environment, it might not be your juniors that give you the best hockey stick. It might actually be the companies that are normally too big for a junior resource speculator like you or me to bother with because that's where the dumb money, pardon me, but you know, the the FOMO money, where will it go? The go-to space. So, I'm not a I'm not a gambler, but if I was and I was thinking of going to Vegas to put money in slot machines, I might just put it into the majors major gold and silver miners now instead. And they're not cheap at less certainly near multi-year highs. But if the next big move is that mania phase that lifts all ships to to the discussion we're having, I think those are the ships that will soar the highest in the first. >> There a specific segment or jurisdiction deposit type uh something else of the gold and silver developers that you like in particular right now? Is there a magic solution, a magic answer? >> No. for the for you. It's interesting you said that you uh instead of top down, bottom up and so on, there's a and this is relevant to your question. There's a tried and true thing that if you listen to Warren Buffett or Peter Lynch or Howard Marx or any of these famous in Jeff Gunlock investors out there, they'll tell you that it's very difficult to outsmart all of Wall Street. Almost impossible. But if you concentrate on avoiding the bottom, the worst of the worst, you if you can avoid the disasters in the making, lop off the bottom from your, you know, do do what all the other gold investors are doing, but avoid those worst mistakes, you will by definition do better than average. Simply by avoiding the worst mistakes. >> What are the worst mistakes than in this market? I mean, if you if you you can't say what do you buy, what do I not buy? >> Well, it's no, that's what you can't. I think it is much harder to say what do I buy? Like who's going to make the next discovery? I don't know that. You don't know that. Not even Rick Rule and Doug Casey know that. Nobody knows that, right? Um that's why we like prospect generators. But um nobody knows that. But if but if you look at a company and it's a disaster waiting to happen, you know, it's you know, all the money has gone into marketing. None of it's gone in the drown ground, right? They they have nothing. And at some point that will become evident or or the locals are burning the CEO and effigy, right? If you can find out those things and just don't go there, avoid the worst of the worst. They're actually fairly easy to identify. Um, you know, lifestyle companies that have been around for decades and have no major discovery uh and spend more on GNA than on drilling or applying boot leather to the ground. It's it's it's easier to avoid the disasters than to depict the the next uh snowline gold before it happens or something like that. And you can improve your average result that way in a more reliable way than trying to swing for the bleachers all the time. H >> so sorry the answer to your question therefore is like in a market like we are right now there's no sector there's no answer there's no prospect generator or pre-production sweet spot play that is going to save me or make money for me if gold bounces off let's say 4500 and then goes screaming back down to 3500 and by the way if it did that 3500 would be a fantastic level for the actual business of mining gold. You know, most gold mines are built on a price assumption half that level or less, >> right? But the stocks would would absolutely get thrown out with a bathwater. You know, the best of the best. So, um even my my favorite speculation, the pre-production sweet spot, that will not save me if the market turns downwards. There there is no type or or anything that that's going to save you from that. Um, now I I know that, you know, we're talking mining stocks and not macro, but I have to say quickly if something like that happened, you know, a gold drops $1,000 an ounce. I think that would not just be a dip. I think that would be an absolute gift from the market because the macro is extremely supportive for anything real, real estate, commodities, and certainly real money, gold and silver. So uh a big scare like that would would shake out all the FOMO people all the Johnny come lately and I think the the sell off in the stocks would be greatly magnified over the fluctuation in the metal while the macro thesis remains strong as ever. So I would see that as a as a tremendous buying opportunity. If I was if I was a disciplined speculator and I was completely new to the space, I would rather wait for that volatility to be my friend than jump on the bandwagon of FOMO right now. >> Do you have your crystal ball with you? You typically do there on your desk. Keep >> Well, I I have a magic eightball that was sent to me by a client, by the way, as a gift. And I like it because if I drop it during an interview, it won't shatter all over the floor. >> Keep Keep it Keep it handy. I am going to ask you when the bull market is going to end here in a couple of minutes, but um how how has the way that you look at mining stocks changed given the valuations though? Is there a new checklist in or something else to look out for when you're trying to avoid the the obvious disasters, the most overpriced ones? >> Uh the answer is no. There is no new checklist. Therefore, for the first time in my career as the independent speculator, I've actually yanked my shopping list. I have no shopping list this month. >> Okay. I'm reconsidering where I rotate into next and you know different shopping list for coming up and I'm thinking about that now. Um but my but currently I I have no shopping list because I did alter my criteria before. I remember in the runup in 2009 10 11 and you you you know in 2008 it was easy. The best of the best were were absolutely, you know, in on the fire sale price level, right? It was great as a buyer. 2009 was pretty good. But then 2010, you know, the valuations all started running. 2011 to, you know, the in early 2011. Anyway, interestingly enough, by the way, the stocks led the metals on the way down and that hasn't happened yet this year. So, if you're worried about when the markets are going to roll over, doesn't prove anything, but just for whatever it's worth, in 2011 the stocks rolled over kind of in Aprilish is if memory serves. It's getting a little bit old, but um and the peak wasn't until September. Um, silver also led gold down. But anyway, I digress. The point is at that time I'm, you know, I'm I've got a newsletter. I got to have new stock picks. And as a as a person looking for value, nothing was undervalued. They were all arguably overvalued. I mean, a junior with no asset, no resource in the ground is by definition overvalued. They all are overvalued, but they're all more overvalued than usual. And even the ones that had a resource that you could put some kind of number on were overvalued. So then you got yourself into this game of relative valuation. And I remember writing about this. I remember saying, "Well, no, I can't say that this $100 million junior that has nothing is really cheap, but his peers are all trading for three or 400 million. So, on a relative scale, this $und00 million junior has more upside." And we went there and we we had stock picks like that back in the day. That was a mistake and it's not one I'm going to repeat. And that's why right now I have no shopping list. Like, so I'm I'm doing a terrible job of selling newsletters, right? What what people want to hear right now is gold's going to the moon. It's going to 10,000. It's not stopping. And you have to sign up now to get this one little overlooked gem that that only I know about. So pay me money, right? And instead of that, I'm telling you, I have no shopping list. So gee, I'm flubbing it completely here, making money on this golden opportunity. But I'm trying to help. And I remember making that mistake before. You know, moral relativism is something I object to in life in general. So, you know, value relativism as an investor is just it's not something I can get behind. Basically, yeah, I I'd rather stick by my criteria and have no stock picks than compromise and then the market rolls over and the garbage that I let in my portfolio because I needed a stock pick, you know, it it wipes out capital and I'm just not I'm not willing to go there. >> If you need to borrow a shopping list, I'm sure my wife has a full drawer of it someplace. Uh, so I can I can ask I don't know if you like handbags and and high heels, but uh she does have plenty of those. Joke jokes jokes aside though, what what if someone's like Globo everything's great that you're saying here, but I'm still going to disagree. I think money printing and everything that's happening with bonds in China and everything gold's going much higher. I'm still going to buy mining stocks now. I'm going to start buying them now. What do I look out for? Is one thing more important than the other right now? >> I answered that already. The go-to stocks. If I was in that mindset, I'm gonna gamble. Now, I think gold's the next move is higher. If you're convinced of that and you're willing to gamble, don't call it a disciplined speculation, but if you're willing to gamble, I think the the the biggest best known names in the sector are the ones that will get that money first, >> right? What what I mean by the question is two years ago having cash would have been the very important thing, right? So, so you know, blue chip names or or whatever you might want to call them in mining. I don't even know if we have those given the the business of mining, but two years ago having cash would have been very important. Is having cash they as important as having high grade or is having a high marketing budget now as important as having a low GNA two years ago? That that's the type of thing. >> Yeah. No. um in the context that we're talking about of of the mania phase being next, like if that's your bet, you're betting on the mania phase being next. No, none of those fundamentals matter. You know, if if the crappy boats will rise with that tide two, then you know, if you're going to compare Agniko to Numont to Bareric or whatever, and the market's not going to care. They're just go, "Oh, big gold company. Me likes." Right. >> Mhm. >> It's a mania. It's a that, you know, when when when the mark when Mr. Market is going manic, he's not being rational. You're not making a a value decision at that point. >> That goes in line with what he said before about if you're, you know, penny dreadfuls haven't run yet during this bull market. There might be something there. And then maybe you have to what what do you do? I mean, do you sell them instantly? Do you call up management and be like, "What's going on? Your stock's not going up." Or what do you do? >> What What's management going to tell you? Yeah, it's my cousin Bertha. that She keeps selling our stock, but everything's fine. Uh, no. So actually the the actual answer is and and this is something you may have heard Rick Rule talking about in his recent interviews is the the market like we don't know what's going to happen next but most of the stocks are doing well except for the ones that are really you know I think giving you this red flag signal you know like uh even even stocks that have underdelled underperformed things that have been dragging along the floor from 2,000 to 3,000 they didn't move. Like that was a red flag already. Why didn't the stock respond from gold like going up 50%. Now from 3,000 to 4,000 those are moving. Most of those are moving. So if you got something that's still not moving, I think is really DOA. Um but if it is moving, that gives you a chance to correct mistakes. Mr. Market is giving us the gift of being willing to buy things that we now regret having bought. Like if you've got any of those in your portfolio, who cares if coins gold's going to 10,000 next? It might go to 2,000 next. We don't know. What we do know is that right now Mr. Market is willing to take the dogs off our hands. And uh Rick has I it might be the first time I've heard him publicly talk about making mistakes in such a way like he he's humble and he'll talk about his mistakes, but he's been talking about using this opportunity to to reach the point of no concern. By the way, he's not waiting for a timing episode. He's selling now to go risk-free. and he's using this opportunity to exit several mistakes that he's made. I have done the same and will continue. I have maybe one or two more that I'm not happy with that I'm I'm looking to do the same as well. Um, you know, that that's a great thing if if you buy something, you get you bamboozled by management or you just miss something in your due diligence or just the story didn't deliver the way you wanted, like everything was correct, but the drilling didn't turn up what you expected and it's underperformed, underperformed, you wish you never bought it. Now is the time to accept Mr. Market's gift. And if you can if you can get out of that position with your money intact, like forget about big wins or, you know, holding on for a double or something like that, you just get your money back off the table. What a fantastic gift. That is absolutely um something that I would not I'm not I'm telling you right now. I'm doing this. This is what I'm doing with my own money is I'm taking the opportunity to get out of mistakes. >> Well, would that be different though? I wonder because you you only do mining. you you have been doing only mining and hopefully you will be doing only mining for at least another 60 years. So what would you do it the same if you were not only doing mining like if mining or or junior mining specifically was only let's say 10% of your portfolio because you wanted those big gains, right? Those kind of your your crap shoots if you will or something like that. It it it's your your better alternative to a casino really. Would you still be of the opinion that, you know, nobody went broke taking a profit and and and you should take something off the table? Would you still do it the same? >> Sure. Perhaps all the more reason, you know, why why do we even have tax laws, which by the way is coming up? >> You know, we have it to offset our gains in one sector or in some companies or stocks with losses in others to uh you know, pay less taxes. So, you know, it un you know, if you think about it, we in the we gold bugs, we've been suffering from underperformance and and when tax loss season coming, we've been we've been looking at it saying, "Well, gee, which ones of our stocks are get hammered this tax loss season?" And maybe that's a buying opportunity, right? But this year, we'll be the ones who are looking at our stocks and saying, "Gee, we've got these big wins. You know, where are the underperformers? you know, maybe I need to sell this tech stock or something that I have that didn't deliver is to take the tax loss to offset my big wins in the gold space. That's a much more happy tax tax law season. Uh for a long like me >> um but so I I lost track of the question that was relevant to your question, but exactly what was the question? >> Would you do it the same if you were not only doing >> Right. So Doug Casey taught and and a method that I try to share with the audience is is you don't want to put all your eggs in one basket. Ideally, Doug would say that you want to have 10 completely different speculation types. Like silver is not a diversification for gold. You know, they're too close, right? Even copper is not a diversification for gold. Maybe uranium that, you know, that's pretty different or oil or whatever, but even that is still natural resources, right? So, you know, in Doug's mind, it's like real estate, art, like paintings, right? And gold and gold mining stocks, right? You know, completely different areas that that you speculate in. Um, so that you can rotate and if you make a bunch of money in gold now, while gee, arts on sale, uh, and that could that could literally happen, right? you know, if if it's economic turmoil that does send gold from four 5,000 to 10,000 or something like that, how many people are going to be out there buying, you know, Van Goes and whatnot. You know, a lot of people are not going to be, you know, even even the 1% of the 1% are going to feel that squeeze and you might find Van Goes on sale rather than soaring in prices. So, what a great time to have big wins in your gold stocks. Like, if gold goes to 10,000 bucks and our stocks go absolutely insane. Like, you think the all-time highs we've seen now are ludicrous mode, that's nothing compared to what would happen if we get a bonafide mania. Like, this is not a mania. What's happening now is pretty frothy. But the shoe shine boy is not telling you about the gold stocks he's buying. And, you know, the bartender is not giving you silver stock tips. That's not happening yet. So, you know, if we get to that stage all and I assume that your audience and mine, you know, we all own some of this stuff already. We we will have we will be asking ourselves, what do we do with all this money? And so, to your point and to what Doug Casey taught, I guess you should be looking at other areas. Um, in the metals and mining space, which is my wheelhouse, I am looking to rotate more into copper. That's my big next thing. And I know you're going to ask that so I frontr run your question, but I am to the degree that I am taking profits already or or exiting my mistakes, I'm building cash to rotate into copper because I do think that there will be serious fortunes to be made in the coming years on copper. But I'm also I'm I'm I'm thinking of paying off my mortgage. >> And people say, you know, you got a low mortgage from when interest rates were low. that's an asset, you know, compared to the bank's liability or, you know, rates, you know. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. But if things go into reverse or, you know, let's say, you know, let's say, um, something happens and the rules change and the the SEC starts shutting down newsletters and my revenue goes away from that. I need to live just on my investments and how I've deployed my capital. At that point, you know, I don't need to tell you how expensive my mortgage is on a monthly payment basis, but it's significant. Not having that monthly payment, like having a low interest rate on a debt doesn't take away the fact that you have a debt. Like, you owe that money. So, having the house completely paid off and only need needing to pay the condo fees, you know, that would that would give me a world of peace in my mind in, you know, if things change in our in our market spaces. So yeah, I you know and or another way of putting this would be let's say that there gold bugs are right you know the the world is a house of cards the financial house of cards comes crashing down the the disasters that we expected in 2008 let's suppose those happen in 2026 because of all the changes that in the world well at that point you know Amazon's on sale. Walmart's on sale. Even Nvidia is on sale, right? Everything else is out there. And I'm not just picking tech stocks. Notice Amazon, you know, and and Walmart. Like, everything else out there is is on sale. And if you're looking for an opportunity to diversify the eggs in the baskets and and you know, a company like Amazon is very unlikely to just dry up and blow away, right? They'll take hits, there'll be problems, but they have a a huge moat in their core businesses. And you know, Walmart is the largest retailer in the world. Like, you know, if you can get that kind of blue chip stock, you know, on sale for pennies on the dollar because of a market panic. Even even the dead cat p dead cat bounce could double your money, never mind what happens later. So I'm, you know, I'm likely to stay with mostly metals and mining stocks because that's what I know. But I do think it is you a rational speculator whose goal is not to be religious about mining stocks, but whose goal is just to make money, uh, you absolutely would want to use the opportunity to take some profits and diversify into other sectors. >> Are you sure you want to sell newsletters, though? Well, I you know, we're joking, but my honest hope is that well, a if we do go in the manic phase, people will remember that I didn't say it's impossible. I didn't, you know, I'm not actually a bear right now. I'm a wolf. I'm I'm trying to be a savvy, smart hunting wolf looking for value. That's all. Um, so you know, but if it goes down and all the rah rah, it's going to the moon people turn out to be crying in their beers next month, then I hope people will remember that I wasn't on that bandwagon of rah rah rah, it's going to the moon. And I hope that let's let's put it this way. I I've always hated the tortoise and the hair story. It's stupid. Of course, the rabbit wins. He only doesn't win because he falls asleep and he takes a nap or whatever. In real life, that's not going to happen. you cross the finish line and then you take a nap and have a beer or whatever. Um, so I've never liked that story, but there is something to that idea of slow and steady over time as opposed to chasing after the hype and exhausting yourself. Like I I think that's actually what my business plan is. And and so I'm I'm hoping that over time people were like, "Yeah, Lobo doesn't get them all right, but he gets more right than he gets wrong and we make money over time." >> Well, hopefully we can revisit in 60 years and see if that's true. >> We'll see. >> 100 plus year old speculator or maybe at the time 99 year old speculator gets it right 60 years in a row. That would be a funny episode right there. What's uh >> if you don't mind you know just brief brief advert here like there's my portfolio and that's the thing I'm doing disastrously is selling right now by making money. There's also my take which has no portfolio. It's it's not a newsletter really. It's a database with about a thousand companies in it. Um and the the idea there is not oh what's what's the stock pick that's going to the moon. The idea there is that if if you haven't been to the projects, you don't have a due diligence team, or maybe you don't have quite the level of experience that some other people might have, my take can help you with that. You know, we're a research tool, and whether you agree with me or not, whether you're a bull or a bear, whatever, if you can have independent analysis of companies that's not paid for by the companies, I think that's very valuable. And it has nothing to do with timing markets, bullishness, bearishness, what's going up or down. It's just independent analysis. So, if I want to sell a newsletter, pardon me for throwing that in. That that would be the one. Like, let's say you disagree with everything I'm saying about where the markets are going or how to diversify. Fine. Throw all that out. As long as you don't think I'm a crook who's taking money to promote companies that don't deserve it, then you know I I think that service could be very valuable to you. >> Is that going to save me from the dollar going to zero though? >> Can't do that. But I can tell you when a company is a lifestyle company to be avoided at all costs. >> What What do you think is the biggest risk for for people speculating in mining stocks right now? Is it not? Well, I initially wanted to ask where it's not owning enough, but clearly that's not the risk. Is it not selling on time, not selling enough, not owning quality, uh chasing lightings in in bottles, chasing those lifestyles? What's the Yeah. What's the biggest trap here? >> I think the the the literal answer to your question may not be the most helpful one. So, let me give you two answers. I do think the biggest trap is that people start believing their own BS or even their own truth, if you will. Let's say you're right. I mean, the dollar debasement thing that's happening. I mean, by the way, it's hilarious to me that the debasement trade that's now capitalized on Wall Street, you know, the DT, the debasement trade, and and Wall Street titans are talking about the debasement trade and the hairspray heads on on financial media are talking about the debasement trade. Like, they just discovered monetary debasement, this new phenomenon. I mean it's something that your audience and mine we've been talking about it for years and years and suddenly the mainstream is catching on which does make me a little nervous by the way. Um but the point is like you know we have this belief let's say for example that the debasement of the dollar is good for monetary metals and commodities and things and and that that can be completely true but that didn't help us from 2012 to 2015 right so we were right but but if you bought at the top in 2011 and then the next five years happened you and you know it taken extraordinary fortitude to not panic and sell and end up reversing the formula and buying high and selling low. >> And so believing your own narrative, you know, we like to laugh and dismiss the the mainstream narratives we see, but it but your own narrative, what you hear in your own echo chamber is extremely dangerous to us. There's a my my favorite line from the Bible is I think it was Jesus. Jesus says, you know, look not to the speck in your brother's eye, but to the plank in your own. That is just so human. Who I mean, not Jesus, like the human thing is to to criticize and see the faults in everybody else's thinking, but my thinking is perfect, right? You know, oh yes, I've got it figured out. I know best. That leads to enormous uh investment mistakes. Like if you're wrong, obviously it make results in mistakes. Even if you're right, to pull another Rick ruleism is confusing the inevitable with the imminent, right? Ma massive mistakes in investments. If you're too early by enough time, that's the same as being wrong because opportunity cost exceeds your gains, right? So, um I I do so this is kind of a philosophical answer to your question, you know. I but I but I do think this results in a lot of pain and in and serious erosion of capital because people just get so convinced of something and they bet on something that's inevitable but it's not imminent. It's certainly not happening now. Um but that's so a more practical takeaway is just I think people are insufficiently skeptical of these mining company CEOs and you you you go to the show and you talk to the guy or the gal and they're so friendly. They're so nice. They know more than you do about their projects. So, they're ready and they can answer all your questions usually. Actually, by the way, dear audience, even if you're not an expert, I'm I'm not paid by the conferences to promote them, but I do think it's worth going to these conferences to ask the CEOs these questions. And if they answer them all, great. Well, that may or may not prove that how great it is. But if they can answer basic questions like, "How much money do you have? How how much is your drill program this year?" Right? If they can't answer those questions, that's a clear red flag and a reason to stay away from that stock. So, anybody can do that level of due diligence. You know, you get that used car salesman vibe from a CEO, that's actually tradable input data for you. >> So, the the more practical or immediately obvious takeaway that I'm giving you, Antonio, and the audience is you really really need to be skeptical. the the disciplined speculators card rule virtue I think is not just a healthy dose of skepticism you know never mind the grain or the bucket but like a barrel you know a dump truck full of skepticism something like that you need to if you'll pardon the crudity the loboism here is that if you assume you'll rarely be disappointed >> and it's you know it's it's their job to to prove to you not to suggest to you not buy you a beer here, not hand you a little free pen at the booth, you know, gold colored pen, you know, but to pro to prove to you that your skepticism is wrong. Yeah. A caterpillar se 797 full of full of skepticism is is needed. This is the reason why when I when I talk to CEOs, you know, I would get those comments like, "Oh, this interview is an hour and a half long. It should be 15 minutes." You're not getting much in in 15 minutes. And if if you're not really willing to to put in at least that basic amount of time to get those basics out, that that might be one of the bigger risks right now, especially with these valuations and and and the state of the market. That's also what what I'm getting out >> for your That's an interesting point for your business. I don't know if our audiences would sit still for a Lex Freriedman style three or four hour conversation, but this is this is actually important, dear audience. A bullshitter like a psychopath, a garden variety bullshitter can for 10, 15 minutes, maybe 20 minutes, half an hour, no problem. They've got all these glib answers, >> you know, how you going to deal with that low grade. Well, but you know, outside the aabaska basin, this is great, right? You know, they've got all these answers, but those run out after 15, 20 minutes, maybe 30 minutes. I won't say max because there are some very polished and accomplished psychopaths out there that could just lie for hours and hours. But your your garden variety IR person can't. >> And so a long conversation is it's not just time to dig deeper into details, but it's time to run out of pat answers. >> And so if you're doing that, my friend, then then I commend you for that because perhaps we'll start getting more um more of the truth out there. >> Not not out there somewhere, Skully. >> I met someone very big name in mining. Um, but I don't necessarily want to throw in Bayer under the bus, but the response I got is sure, we'll get them on, send us a list of questions and we'll think about it. And the first thing was like, it's not happening. Um, I can tell you that the topic is going to be, you know, the general health of the company, if you will, or something like that. And then they're like, let's book a call first to talk about, you know, doing the interview. It's like, we're not going to rehearse it. And then eventually when you keep pushing back, they're like, oh, but he doesn't do longer than 30 minutes. That's a red flag. And at that point, I just check out. And it's like, well, it's unfortunate. it would have been a big name, you know, a good interview, probably attract a decent audience. Um, I'm not doing it. Um, and and so that actually is is kind of a an answer in and of itself. I I even thought about making a list of companies that decline, you know, doing long form interviews, but that's a bit of a sneaky move. Maybe I'll do it if this really is a bull market and not a riata. >> I hope in your own little black book, you do have that list. Publishing that list could get you sued. By the way, on on my front, you know, I'm usually the one being interviewed, but I do grill the occasional CEO. You do. And I require them to sign a media release that's completely one-sided. Like, I could draw Mickey Mouse ears over their head on the video and publish that whether they liked it or not. Of course, I don't do that, but I don't pull my punches. And and and there are companies that, well, you know, we'd like to do this, but our lawyers say we can't sign this release. And uh I have a list of those >> uh for yourself then. Um maybe you should make that part of my take, but uh that that might risk uh you know, whatever it is non-disclosure. >> You know, I'm somewhat surprised I haven't been sued yet for some of the things that I've said because I'm I'm pretty blunt. But you know, if I'm wrong, dear company CEO, show me why I'm wrong. >> How much cash are you keeping right now in this market? Um not in absolute Well, if you want to tell me absolute terms, go ahead. But no, I mean uh percentage terms, how much uh how much of the portfolio is is not invested right now? >> Um I'm actually much higher in cash. It's looking like 30 35% cash right now. >> Um because I have taken some profits. I've had some upside maximizer triggered and you know I I love the pre-production sweet plot and I've had some some of those mature so I have some cash and as we mentioned earlier I've been waiting to rotate into uh into copper like I'm I'm a gold bull I've got lots of gold and silver stocks I'm I'm happy for them to go higher but I'm not going to buy high and hope to sell higher myself that's not my discipline so to you to the degree that I get stopped out or I get triggered or I reach my end goal on any of my stocks that are that are up this year, then that has been going to cash this year and I've been waiting for it, you know, with minimal interest rate there, waiting for the next rotation. >> And that that is not a a record high for me, but that's pretty close. I usually I want to have at least some cash in case a once in a-lifetime opportunity comes up, but I don't want to have that much in cash normally. I mean, it's it's that is a measure of how I see this market right now. You know, I'm I'm I'm not willing to just pile back into gold and silver because it's not a buy low, sell high setting in my view and I'm waiting still for the next big move. So, I'm I'm more cash rich than I normally am now. That's interesting because it's there's no like money on the sidelines type of thing. I I I kind of always laugh when I hear it, but it's you don't have money on the sidelines. your long gold or or or your long if you well if you consider that money which or your cash portfolio position for me >> okay >> like you know what I mean >> sure >> uh or like so I I don't I don't have treasuries or CDs or something like that the cash that I have is literally cash in my 12 No that's I have very little I don't even have a savings account like in a regular bank I do not have a savings account when I have money I want to I buy bullion. >> Yeah. >> And oh, and by the way, would I buy gold at 4 4,300 if it was physical bullion and I had cash that I wanted to put away for the long term? Yes, I would. By the way, I mean, when we're talking about buying, you know, trading and investing and speculating, I'm talking about the stocks. Bullion, in my view, as you know, we've talked about this. It's not an investment. It's not a speculation. It's insurance. It's savings. It's, you know, it's physical wealth that I can hold in my hand. and there's no counterparty risk, right? So, completely different question. Um, so that that's where I put long-term savings is bullion. >> Yeah. >> Uh, the cash that I'm holding is not a portfolio position. It's just cash waiting to be deployed in in new speculations. >> Why not put it on your pinky? >> Uh, by the way, since you mentioned it, the the the wolf on here whing it the wrong way. that's uh designed by my eldest >> and so >> I'm very proud to have a family sigil there. >> That's really cool. Um but to to that point though, Lobo, sentiment seems very mixed as a whole judging by the online chatter alone. I live online. I don't have another life. So maybe maybe that will change if there's a good bull market too. But some people are saying, you know, precious precious metals and mining bull markets, they still have a lot more to go. Others are saying nobody went broke taking a profit. Cough cough, right? But when when is this bull market going to be over though? Um I I suppose now is when you pull up the the crystal ball or the magic eight bowl there, but what has to happen? What are some of the signals that you'll be looking for to be like this is really coming to an end here? I mean, now you say it's getting maybe frothy. When is it coming to an end? >> I am not joking, my friend. I can't turn it towards the camera because it won't work. But as you said, are we coming towards an end? The magic eightball. It says yes, definitely. I don't think I can do this. Uh, >> it does say yes, definitely. Yeah, I can see it. >> Uh, I'm not making a decision based on the magic eightball, dear audience. I just think that's very funny and I couldn't resist um the opportunity. So again, the the non-newsletter selling answer is I don't know and I don't think anybody knows and I do think that anybody who says they know are an active threat to your wealth and well-being. But that doesn't mean I just throw up my hands and say, "Okay, um I have, as you know, the upside maximizer strategy, which is sort of like using stop- losses, but but a ratcheting stop-loss on my gains so that I don't know when it tops, when it rolls over, but when it does, I get triggered and that way my big wins don't slip through my fingers." So, you know, Doug Casey, he taught me the the way to reach the point of no concern was to sell half on the first double, right? And then after that, you've got your money back. You can't lose. Whatever happens after that, it's just pure profit. Um Marian Katusa, my former uh brother in arms there at Casey Research, dubbed that the Casey Free ride, the Casey Free Ride formula. Sell half on the first double. The problem with that was that if you got a 10bagger, it turned it into a five bagger and so on. And people hated that. When when we sold half on the first double and that thing just kept going, right, people hated that. So, not just responding to the hate, but thinking about that, you know, they have a point. You know, why why just go ahead and sell? Well, you never know what's going to happen. I get that. So, that's why I came up with this idea of using stops not as stop losses. Our stocks are so volatile >> that a stoploss trigger is actually often a good signal for a buying opportunity. Like sometimes, okay, there's a coup d'eta, right? or the legendary endangered mosquito is discovered on the property and the stock falls off a cliff and yeah, a stop-loss would be great there. But that actually doesn't happen very often. Much more often is some fund somewhere is facing redemptions and they just liquidate in a large position or a broker with a big account um you know gets caught with his hand in the cookie jar, has to sell a bunch of positions, you know, something like that. you know, a a whale shareholder in an ugly divorce can can take a share price for these juniors, right, that are not that big and take them down 30 40% in a day. So, stop losses as such are very dangerous in in the thin markets that you and I uh focus on. But if you use them or something like that, you know, as I say, with a ratcheting mechanism where it doesn't it doesn't get triggered, not on intraday volatility, I use closes, but you just let it ride. Then instead of selling half on the first double, you take some profits when the stock rolls over, wherever that is. And so let's say let's say the 10bagger instead of turning it into a five bagger selling half on the first double let's say we get triggered by some volatility when it's a sevenbagger and it still goes on to become a 10bagger before the end of the game. Well, if I'm now taking my profits, I don't even have to sell half. I could just recover my initial investment and leave the larger bulk like 6x still on the table. or if I'm really nervous about it, selling half would still leave more money on the table than if I sold at the first double. So, I call it the upside maximizer because that doesn't mean that I'm able to top tick the market. I mean that it's on average a way to lock in a much a more maximum level of gains than selling half on the first double. >> And to the market timing question, nobody can time markets reliably. I certainly don't claim to be able to do so. But let's say not just one, but all of my upside or most of my mark my upside maximizers start getting triggered. Boom, boom, boom, pop, pop, pop. They're all rolling over. Well, that's not just one company. That's not one endangered mosquito on the property, right? Something is happening to the sector at that point. And that would be a that would be interesting data. And you you you'd look at the macro. You try to think about what's going on. But if all of my upside maximizers are getting triggered, I would certainly look hard at maybe not just recovering my initial investment but taking the bulk of the profits instead or you know if something is close to the endgame you know if it's a pre-production sweet spot one week from first pour maybe I just go ahead and sell the whole thing at that point right so what I'm saying is if you have you don't have to you know do what I'm doing but you should have an exit strategy you should have a method and you should be prepared prepared to execute it and if you do that with discipline then I think even if you don't know where the market tops you can buy low and sell high >> so your advice is buy low and sell high >> breaking news super re revelation nobody ever told us that before >> what do you I'm giving you a tip on how to execute the sell high part and by the way that upside maximizer there's a report on the website that's available It's a free demo. >> Well, you just mentioned copper a little earlier there. Um, I would have almost expected it to be nickel had I not spoken to you about nickel about a year ago and nothing's really changed or not much has really changed about nickel since then. Um, Rick Rule disagrees with that. Recently spoke to him about that. So, he he he says that that's that is the contrarian play right now. Yours seems to be copper. Why why copper, not nickel? because the demand for copper is increasing now whereas nickel is a I would agree with Rick in that it's not an if it's a when question >> right it's not just well but but to go with Rick's thing it's inevitable I would say that higher nickel prices are inevitable it's necessary it's used in stainless steel um many other things it's it's not something that can just be substituted away at some point nickel prices will have to go higher but he himself would say never confuse the inevitable with the imminent now he's retired so-called um and he manages money for one client Rick Rule >> and so his one client will be very patient with him so if he's you know he likes to buy hate he says and nickel is hated right now so this is a classic brick rule opportunity I'm going to buy the hated thing which will not go away even lobo says nickel inevitably will at some point go higher. Let's say that takes 5 years. His one client Rick Rule is not going to complain. But me as an evil scum of the earth newsletter writer, if I say let's buy hate, let's pile in a nickel now and it takes 5 years, you know, I will be I'll be, you know, burned in effigy and hung from lamp post and papier-mâché and all that stuff about what a terrible call that that nickel call was. And again, too early is wrong in markets. So nickel may be inevitable, but I'm not going to say it's imminent. And copper, I see not only is inevitable and not just imminent, but it's actually happening now. I was more in the imminent campaign earlier this year, but the there have been not just one or two, but there have been multiple supply disruptions that have copper doing better this year than I thought it would given the macro circumstance. >> So, I mean, I'm extremely bullish. I think the the pipeline of the necessary copper projects, the big worldass projects that can meet the demand that I don't think the audience needs me to beat that to death. It's not just AI and electric cars. It's it's Dr. Copper for a reason. And these other things on top of that just add even more demand. So you look at that and you look at the lack of of big mines and the difficulty permitting them even in in relatively promining places like Peru and Chile. Permitting these gigantic massive holes in the ground that people want to make is difficult >> and timeconuming even when successful. So this is this is one where if I wasn't worried about Trump shock causing lower prices in the very nearest term, I would be deploying that capital that we just talked about now in copper. I'm I'm I'm that confident of that. I I happen to see or I think that we're going to get a better buying opportunity in the nearest term. So I'm holding for that. If I'm right, then it will increase my gains. Buy low, right? If I'm wrong, I'm so bullish on this thesis going forward that okay, I'll have to pay more than I would pay if I bought right now, but I'll still make a ton of money based on how much higher I think it will then go. This this isn't something that it's not like gold or silver that could go, you know, moonshot manic move next could happen. you know, copper will will it can surge and eb and flow, but it I'm looking at steady a steady upward to the right chart for years to come ahead. And so if that's if that's my expectation, I feel no FOMO. I feel no reason to rush. And again, as a public figure with people looking over my shoulder, 40,000 very best friends, right? You know, I would hate to say, "Yeah, just don't worry about it. Just buy copper stocks. It's going to be great for years." And then they drop 50% next month because there's this huge blow up in the trade war or something. >> Well, I fully expected it to be rare earth elements actually with everything that's been going on. But uh copper's fine too. Yeah. What what's uh do stuff like that can incite FOMO though in in in myself and then I'm sure a lot of other people as well. Not in you though. It seems like you don't really care about it. You shrug your shoulders a little bit. Um yeah. What do you make of that? How do you deal with, you know, trends like that? >> Well, let me step even further outside. Um, if you had listened to me about Bitcoin when it broke $1,000, actually, I think it was around 1,200 bit, but that was the first time Bitcoin surpassed the price of an ounce of gold. When when that happened, I was very negative. I thought, oh, I mean, I mean, actually, I love the idea of cryptocurrencies. I love the idea of a form of money that's not created by governments and and you know decentralized well you know who who who guarantees this nobody. Well that's better than a profleate government that guarantees it's going to print more of them. I mean their goal of 2% inflation that their goal is to make your money worth less by at least 2% every year. So in that kind of world, you know, I love the idea of cryptos, but where I my to your question, the point is if you had listened to me, when Bitcoin topped $1,200 a bitcoin, you missed out on a 100 bagger. This is a true fact. You can go back and look at this. I wrote about this in my Casey days. Now, I think from that 1,200 point, it did retreat 50%. And I, you know, it had gone up and I I thought, "Wow, that's that's that's too rich." And so over the next couple years, I looked like a genius. I was right. There was a hockey stick and a pullback was coming. You know, it turned out to be one of those having things, I guess. Um, but it but it but this is I'm telling you the truth. This is a true thing. If you had listened to me when Bitcoin crossed 1,200, you literally your opportunity cost was literally a 100 bagger. I cost anybody who listened to me that. I cost myself that. But to the to your question, I don't feel any remorse about that at all. It was a complete unknown. You know, the Bitcoin maxis will tell you, "Ah, we knew it was going to the moon. There's only going to be 21 million of them forever." It had to. It didn't have to. I mean, who knows what could have could have gone differently. Um, anybody can say that in hindsight, but at the time, you know, what did we know about Bitcoin? you know, it would not have been a rational, disciplined decision to say, "Yeah, let's go to Bitcoin. It's going to 100,000." Um, it would have been a gamble. And yes, you can make a lot of money. You can get a 100 beggar on a gamble, but reliably, consistently over time, you know, okay, let's say you made 100x on your on your Bitcoin. Where's the next 100x coming from? And if anybody tells you I know for sure this will be 100x extra money, I think it would be prudent to suspect a snake oil salesman at that point. So no, I don't I don't I don't feel bad about that. Actually, uh, if anything, my guidance at that time gave people capital to even if they were into Bitcoin, if they sold at 1,200 that time, they could have bought back in at 700 or whatever it went down to, 600 and and made more money. Their 100 bagger could have been a 200 bagger if they had bought the dip later. Um, but that's not my thing. And you you can't reliably make money chasing after whatever is hot at the moment. If you do that, you end up being the greater fool. At some point, you will absolutely pile into something that you're that you're convinced is going to the moon and it will be wrong and you will wipe out your capital. So, this fits into something I said earlier. If you're looking for somebody that's going to nail all those hockey sticks for you, I can't do that. I don't think anybody can do that. I think it's much better to invest in somebody that can reliably, consistently over time deliver more gains than losses. >> And and so I don't aim for the moon. I rarely swing for the bleachers. I'm happy to get solid base hits and bring those home runs in, you know, game after game. >> Yeah, as a European, I totally know what you're saying there. By the way, >> I don't have a soccer metaphor for that. If you're British, you know that you know there's maybe there's a cricket metaphor there. >> I know you don't have all day to sit around look at my face. We're going to have to do this again soon, but not really this. We're going to have to follow up on our mini minieries there that we uh started maybe what a year and a half ago, two years maybe at this point. We'll talk about producers takeover targets, land banks and stuff like that hopefully next time. But uh I'm all out for now. What do you What else did you want to talk about today that I'm failing to bring up? I just want to leave people not with a sales pitch. Don't don't click off yet. The idea I want to leave you with is I'm not bearish. There is I think I I can't put a probability on it that would be invented, but I think there is a significant chance that the next big move in gold and silver is actually that blowoff top. Um I would prefer that wasn't the case. I would much rather have a steady build over the years. But as a as a fundamentalist and not a chartist, you know, looking at dollar debasement and other these other things, I would rather see a consolidation period, another move fired, another consolidation period like we saw at 2,000 and we saw at 3,000. I'd rather see that now and have years to make money on this trend. Then if if it really goes manic, great. Don't forget to take profits because the next thing after a manic move, it's always a crash down to reality. So, um, I'm not trying to rain on the parade, but the but the worst thing in the world if you're a gold bull who's been waiting decades for this and you're right and your stocks do go to the moon and you don't take any profits and they all go back down to, you know, the center of the earth afterwards, uh, you will never forgive yourself for that. So, you don't have to sell out. You know, I'm not calling a market top, but as Antonio has been kind enough to uh poke my eye on several times, I am absolutely saying that nobody goes broke taking profits, and you should have a method for assuring that you do. >> Thank you so much for your time today. This is great. >> Thank you, Antonio.