This Week In Charts Ep 232: 2025 Repo Madness? Jefferies Bank In Trouble? LBMA Out Of Silver?
Summary
Market Outlook: The podcast discusses a significant fall in the S&P and Nasdaq, marking the first major decline since April, with concerns about a potential seasonal pullback.
Trade and Tariffs: Tensions between the US and China are highlighted, with Trump's comments on increasing tariffs affecting the rare earth sector and contributing to market volatility.
Banking Sector Concerns: Jefferies Bank and other financial institutions are under scrutiny due to exposure to toxic debt, with regional banks like PNC and USB facing significant stock declines.
Credit Market Risks: Tightening credit conditions are noted, with widening spreads and increased use of the Fed's discount window, suggesting underlying financial instability beyond trade issues.
Commodities and Currencies: Oil prices are falling, indicating potential contraction, while the dollar and yen show volatility, impacting global markets.
Precious Metals: Gold and silver experience dramatic reversals, with reports of the LBMA facing logistical challenges, possibly affecting market dynamics.
Cryptocurrency Insights: Bitcoin and Ethereum show resilience with healthier chart patterns compared to traditional markets, suggesting a more stable trend.
Investment Strategy: The podcast suggests caution in the financial sector, emphasizing the importance of monitoring bank weaknesses and potential opportunities in energy for the coming year.
Transcript
All right, everyone. Welcome back for another episode of This Week in Charts via Carnivore Trades and Wall Street for Main Street. If you guys have not done so already, don't forget to give the video a like, comment your thoughts, subscribe to the channel. You can find Jason on Patreon. You can find me on carnivorees.com for swing trading alerts analysis and live day trading. Anyways, let's get into it here this week. So, really only one thing to really talk about, and that is Friday's price action. You're going to see here uh we did we finally get our seasonal uh fall pullback looks like it may have started. Now just looking at the cash S&P here that was down 2.7% on Friday. Triple Q's were down three and a half and that is the first decline of over 1% since April and um one of the longest streaks on record. uh it's something like uh almost like half a year of um no declines of more than 1% on the majors. So pretty amazing stuff here. And you know basically you know take a look at the monthly chart here um or on the S&P rather we wiped out like half of last month's gains in in one one day not one week one day in fact. Yeah, there you go. three weeks there on the S&P. We'll use a weekly chart and you can see it on the Q's basically almost yeah almost three weeks there wiped out and we're bas basically back to the um excuse me the August high. I mean the August high here on the Q's is only five points away six points away. Uh S&P August high. Yeah, we're basically right there right now. So um pretty incredible stuff here. Right down to the 50 moving average. What's the big catalyst here? There's a couple things. Um the main thing that everybody's going to focus in on is Trump kind of going basically responding to the China right now um in trade. so expanding their uh rare earth export restrictions. And Trump on Friday morning um in the middle of the day, you can see it right here at about 10:00 10:30 um you know said that you know he would consider massively increasing tariffs quote unquote massive and you can see you know the rare uh sector moving here. Um big big sell there in REMX uh US that that did manage to close green. We had um MP that closed green again came off high. a lot of volatility in that space and that was uh you know the main headline volatility there. Um however, if you've been following my channel um I've been talking about this very very and I've been following this very closely. I've even brought it up on here. We've been talking about the repo market and um sofur has been tapped into. We've seen a little bit of panic there and there I believe there's more to this than just um you know rare earth and trade volatility. Um you can see here um banks are tapping the Fed discount window and Jeff um in big trouble right now. They are exposed to a lot of toxic debt. A lot of companies that people are not talking about. I did a whole deep dive on this for my subscribers. Um but AR Aerys Capital Management two tickers there. Um the stock has gotten wrecked. Uh this is private equity based uh Main Street Cap absolutely wrecked. Some of these regional banks as well and well you can see we can see Jeffrey's take a look at their stock. uh but some of these re big regional banks PNC regions uh USB right these these stocks are getting hit very hard here uh truest this is also confirmed here hyg credit breaking down right so I don't believe that it's just tariff volatility I think that's a headline um and you know and certainly I'm not saying it doesn't matter but I think there's other things going on underneath the service here and uh credit is being um it's getting tighter right now you're seeing spreads widen a little bit here. And um there could be more to this. Now, we know Trump wants rates down, right? Um and I mean, what better way to do it, right, than uh good oldfashioned credit risk, right? So, you do have TLT getting a really good bid on Friday. Now, why I think this is separate, um you know, everybody's talking about, oh, the tariff this, tariff that. When we were doing tariffs in April and February, TLT got wrecked, right? Liberation day got wrecked. TLT. The dollar got wrecked as well. The dollar was down yesterday, right? Oil was down big. And we got to fix our our charts here because I forgot to adjust it. But there we go. Oil was down big, right? But TLT was up. That tells me the market's expecting credit contraction. Not so much it's worried about tariffs uh or or a trade, right? So, I'm not saying that that isn't a big part of it, but um I do think there's credit risk here. Um, it's a Roach Motel. So, you know, people say, "Oh, Jeffree is only a $10 billion company." Arc is only a $12 billion company. Yeah. But all of them together, uh, all these together, uh, make up a big deal. And I think the credit market is telling you that right now. Now, I also want to say this as well. Um, and you can see the KRE here, big cell, XLF, big breakdown, JPM, the Bank of America. These guys are exposed to a lot of toxic French debt, uh, European sovereign debt, and, um, specifically the reason why I highlighted Aerys Capital in my report is because they're 22% of their balance sheet is exposed to European companies, not so much that they own uh, not that AIS is exposed to um, sovereign debt in Europe, but surely the companies that they are u lending to are. And that can be problematic right now as European bonds are absolutely soaring. So, to be clear here, and there's broker dealers for you as well. Um, I don't think that this will on the financial side, I don't know what the tariff saga is. There was already some taco talk. Um, Trump already, you know, he can he can walk things back all he wants, anytime he wants, too. He can play with the market. And notice how he didn't I don't know if you guys caught this, but after we look at the futures here, it's just so convenient that, you know, he he said he doubled down again after the market closed and then after the futures closed, he started to walk it back a little bit. And you can see here the spy, which trades after hours um past 5:00 p.m. unlike ES did walk back, you know, it did bounce back up a little bit. So, and by the way, we are just from a technical standpoint, we are already like I mean this is a it wouldn't shock me to see a rebound Monday. I'll put it that way just based on the the the um just like the the straight extension of this type of a sell, right? If you look at um you know back in even in February, we we didn't have a single day like this where we just got that extended that quickly. Um and that if anything that's actually probably why it kept going because it didn't lead to panic very quickly, right? Um it was more of an inconspicuous. So I didn't start to see that panic towards the end. So I mean I could see a little bit of a rebound here Monday, but my point is um it's a lot to cover here so I'm I'm going all over the place. But in terms of financial sector problems, um this is being compared to well at least by me and um very few others cuz no one else is talking about it. But um it's being compared to the 2019 repo. And just to be clear, um this is the 2019 repo crisis. That's it. It it was just a 5 to 7% drop and most of it happened in two and a half days. Um the Fed, if there's problems here with um banks needing a discount window, uh sofur, all that stuff, they will plug that up very quickly. Um another reason why, right, this is I think there's a pocket of weakness here, reverse repo's done. There's about 4 billion left. It's it's basically empty, right? So it's kind of this perfect storm here. And then you throw tariffs on top of that and um you know a market that's just overleveraged. Dealers selling puts to finance calls um just massive massive you know greed in some of these momentum stocks right that unwind and you know again when it when these trades work right you know on these tech stocks they work and then they double down and then they double down again and eventually you're levered 50 to1 and all it takes is a 1% drop to trigger margin right then that becomes three and a half. So, um, that's how that's how these things compound. Now, I don't think it'll take them long to plug this up, but, um, you know, it it could it could get sharp very quickly, right? Um, and that that just seems to be the boom bust cycle. Now, I know Jason and I have talked about this, you know, many times before, but the boom bust cycle is shortened. I mean, look at this, right? Uh, you even look back at um the the pandemic, right? You know, it's like 30% in like 8 weeks. uh you know earlier this year 25% in like eight nine weeks right we had that the um the yen you know that was 10 12% in in two weeks right um so I think that you know we can see some sharp declines here it's certainly possible um but I I don't think it takes them too long and then we have a Fed meeting later this month on the 30th or 29th I believe of uh October so I just can't imagine and the Fed knows that repo is being drained out it's not like they're stupid I I mean, they they see it. So, I'm sure that they they they have some thoughts on how to manage that, but there's definitely a pocket of risk here and um you know, it took a little bit longer than expected, but um you know, I'll take the volatility. I'll I'll take the volatility as a trader. So, anyway, right now um I know I got uh so we did break our trend line here. Um we could see a little bit of a bounce. Don't forget next week is options X for month of October. So, if this market stabilizes a little bit here, again, we did just sell straight to the 50 moving average, like with in one shot. And um if you take a look here, I've got this tool that I I like to use sometimes, but um you can see the yellow line here is two standard deviations from the 20-day. So, I mean, you can see we're we're already at that. So, we we may see a little bit of a rebound here. Um, and if the market stabilizes into opex, it may it may just chop sideways until then. Um, and then maybe we could see a little bit of continuation risk after that if the banks, you know, don't get plugged up right away. So, yeah, lots of, you know, lot it's like nothing. First four days of the week, nothing happens. We got government shutdown. We are not getting any data and then we get to all of it all at once. So, very good stuff. If we do continue to to decline, obviously, you know, 6100, 6150 is going to be a big level there. Um, you do have the August highs at 6,500 and the 50 MA. So, you know, maybe you get a pierce of that Monday, a turnaround Tuesday for a rebound. Um, you know, if they walk back the we get a taco trade, you know, maybe we gap up uh Monday morning. There's a lot of scenarios here that can happen and it's always difficult trying to gauge it when this when these types of things happen on a Friday. But I would say right now short-term immediate short-term bulls you got to reclaim 6600 to get any sort of um you know intraday squeeze going and um you know you can kind of work from there. Losing the 50-day would obviously um you know be problematic if we can't um recover it very quickly. U you know we could see 6350 fast if that happens. Um, by the way, again, I know there's a lot to cover here and I'm just kind of going all over the place, but um, just a lot of stuff, but by the way, um, again, if if we don't get some sort of taco or Uncle Scott, Scott Bessant Magic, um, Sunday, like you can see where dealers are are hedged for Monday at 590 on the cues. Um, that there's nothing past that. they are um you know the market's caught with its pants down right now where considering where the Q's closed um if we see any more downside there it could cause a scramble for edges. So there's a lot going on here. Um you know Monday I can't tell you which way it's going to go but I can look at the levels and um you know we can get the we just have to react from there really. I will say right now shortterm um VIX 25 I think will get defended by sellers. Um I did see some interest come up past that uh at 35, but I don't think it gets hit right away. That would be kind of my general lean, but I think 25 should be about it for now. So anyway, you know, a lot to get into here. Um IWM down 3%. You know, double top took it a little bit of time engulfing on the weekly. Dow. We talked about 458. It did close below that. So, break down there. And the other thing I've been saying all week long is if we're going to get any sort of meaningful pullback, semiconductors need to die, right? And they, you know, they did on volume here. So, it does appear to be a legit sell. That does not mean that we can't bounce. But, um, you know, sellers have made some progress here. IGV breakdown there. Transports break down there as well. We were looking for trend in this. said this for like three weeks and it may be coming here. All right, quickly try to get through the the usual stuff here, but there was a longer intro than normal due to the uh fireworks. Um yeah, two-year yield down did not make a new low. Fives, tens, and 30s down as well obviously. So bond market, you know, it's thankfully for us in the US it's doing what it should in this situation. XHP down, excuse me, 1.5. That was getting interesting on the weekly, but very good outside move down um on Friday and and really the whole week. So, the lower rates not really helping XHP here. It's got to hold that 200 day moving average. IYR also breaking down as well, right into this trend line here. But I don't like how we failed on that inside bar on the weekly. We talked about banks XLF down losing the 100 day. KRE um lost the daily inside bar and the weekly. So again, those are failures. I don't think this bank stuff is over with yet. Oil selling off as well, right? So this this really to me says more it's it's contractionary. um at least right now in the short term. I do think 2026 can be a big year for energy, but um right now in the short term, uh this needs to wash out a little bit. So, I was looking for a flush early this week on oil and we didn't get that. But what we did do is we bounced for 4 days and now we're flushing again. So, sellers have reset here. They have a little bit of room. They, you know, this can get a little bit more oversold here. Actually, I shouldn't say that. It was oversold. It's not oversold anymore even though we flushed because we've had a nice little bare flag bounce. So, I wouldn't get in front of oil just yet, but I I am watching it close for a good rebound. XLE also flushing out. XOP and OIH, you know, they were get they were so close to getting it going and then they got hit. I think next um next year though is possibly the year for energy. Um dollar index rebounding nicely this week. It did come down Friday. dollar yen big outside move here again uh Japan yen getting hit and um it did you know obviously it reversed here 155 would be a level to watch for forex volatility. So that was an all, you know, that's another thing, too. If this, if this puts in a higher low here and goes to 155, that's going to compound the banking problems and liquidity problems. But right now, you know, it dollar a dollar yen had a really good surge here, so I'm not surprised it pulled back, but um you know, obviously big dump on Friday. Gold here, uh had a reversal on Thursday with volume. Gold may have it may have stalled out a little bit finally. So, we hit 4,000 this week. And um again, I talked about this before. I said when gold reverses, it's not shy. It does it dramatically with volume. And it did that um Thursday. We rebounded Friday. I predicted we would rebound Friday um on gold and silver. But we'll see if this can make new highs. It can make new highs. But until it takes out this this um 4081 here on a close, I think we might have a little bit of a reversal. And you can see silver here as well. It hit 50 on the futures. I think it hit 51 on spot and then big dramatic reversal here. That doesn't mean that they're done, but may we may be getting ready for consolidation here. I have been hearing a lot of reports the LBMA is in trouble. Um they're flying it out by plane, I guess. Um which is a signal of I usually ship it out by ocean, right? So, they're scrambling here, but um I'm just going off off what the charts are saying right now. You can see the miners, too. SIL and SILJ, you know, big reversal candles with volume. So, again, just be careful here. We'll see what happens next week. Platinum had a good um had a good breakout here that did come in Thursday and Friday. And Palladium had a breakout week here, which came in Thursday and Friday as well. These can um you know sometimes when gold and silver stall out these will run. Uh in fact if you look at like palladium back in 2020 2021 they made highs well after gold topped. So um you know they're not always the same but either way they're holding up. Copper obviously a big breakdown. Again, this leads me to believe there's more to the credit stuff here, right? We had dollar down, yields down, copper down, oil down, markets down. That's a traditional risk. By the way, utilities were down, but they held up. Consumer staples, the only sector that was green Friday. It like it's a typical Rword, right? Recession type trade. I I think it was I think there's a lot more to it than just tariffs, to be honest. We'll see if I end up being wrong or not. One way or another, never ever ignore bank weakness. I told everybody that February 21st um earlier this year and that was the right thing. Bitcoin big wash out there. ETH wash out there. They got to our trend line finally. We'll be I'll be interested to see how crypto performs here, but good wash out and good recovery though. The one thing I like about Bitcoin right now as opposed to stocks and by the way, look at this. I mean, charts are cool, right? Right into that little I mean, it overshot, but look at where it's settling. Um, but the one thing I'll say about Bitcoin is if you look at like you look at this chart, it's actually so much more healthier to me than than the stock market because you have a base here, you have a base here, you've got a big base here, you've got a nice um, you know, a nice like uptrend, right? It's like a healthy trend here, right? Uh whereas if you look at the S&P what is I mean this is just a like this is all just let me use a clean chart here right this is all just air there's no there's no base right until you get back to like the breakout you know if you look at a weekly chart here where's the support you didn't like there's no support built and there's the cues as well they didn't really build much support here on the way up. So that can be problematic on the way back down. Whereas you look at Bitcoin, this is all, you know, it's nice how it's just walking up the stairs. So I I I do think that's the positive here for crypto at least. But anyway, enough of that. Um yeah, so interesting week. Definitely broke that trend line finally. Uh yeah, 6500's next down, you know, and then 6600 S&P, you know, can get a little bit of a squeeze going uh in the short run. But yeah, it should should be interesting October here. Um yeah, people are talking about Jeff. Not a lot of people are talking about the other ones, though. Keep an eye on that. That could be the next shoe to drop here. So anyways, that's it. We'll wrap it up for this week. You guys take care. Don't forget to come find Jason on Patreon. Come find me on carnivore.com. We'll see you guys all next
This Week In Charts Ep 232: 2025 Repo Madness? Jefferies Bank In Trouble? LBMA Out Of Silver?
Summary
Transcript
All right, everyone. Welcome back for another episode of This Week in Charts via Carnivore Trades and Wall Street for Main Street. If you guys have not done so already, don't forget to give the video a like, comment your thoughts, subscribe to the channel. You can find Jason on Patreon. You can find me on carnivorees.com for swing trading alerts analysis and live day trading. Anyways, let's get into it here this week. So, really only one thing to really talk about, and that is Friday's price action. You're going to see here uh we did we finally get our seasonal uh fall pullback looks like it may have started. Now just looking at the cash S&P here that was down 2.7% on Friday. Triple Q's were down three and a half and that is the first decline of over 1% since April and um one of the longest streaks on record. uh it's something like uh almost like half a year of um no declines of more than 1% on the majors. So pretty amazing stuff here. And you know basically you know take a look at the monthly chart here um or on the S&P rather we wiped out like half of last month's gains in in one one day not one week one day in fact. Yeah, there you go. three weeks there on the S&P. We'll use a weekly chart and you can see it on the Q's basically almost yeah almost three weeks there wiped out and we're bas basically back to the um excuse me the August high. I mean the August high here on the Q's is only five points away six points away. Uh S&P August high. Yeah, we're basically right there right now. So um pretty incredible stuff here. Right down to the 50 moving average. What's the big catalyst here? There's a couple things. Um the main thing that everybody's going to focus in on is Trump kind of going basically responding to the China right now um in trade. so expanding their uh rare earth export restrictions. And Trump on Friday morning um in the middle of the day, you can see it right here at about 10:00 10:30 um you know said that you know he would consider massively increasing tariffs quote unquote massive and you can see you know the rare uh sector moving here. Um big big sell there in REMX uh US that that did manage to close green. We had um MP that closed green again came off high. a lot of volatility in that space and that was uh you know the main headline volatility there. Um however, if you've been following my channel um I've been talking about this very very and I've been following this very closely. I've even brought it up on here. We've been talking about the repo market and um sofur has been tapped into. We've seen a little bit of panic there and there I believe there's more to this than just um you know rare earth and trade volatility. Um you can see here um banks are tapping the Fed discount window and Jeff um in big trouble right now. They are exposed to a lot of toxic debt. A lot of companies that people are not talking about. I did a whole deep dive on this for my subscribers. Um but AR Aerys Capital Management two tickers there. Um the stock has gotten wrecked. Uh this is private equity based uh Main Street Cap absolutely wrecked. Some of these regional banks as well and well you can see we can see Jeffrey's take a look at their stock. uh but some of these re big regional banks PNC regions uh USB right these these stocks are getting hit very hard here uh truest this is also confirmed here hyg credit breaking down right so I don't believe that it's just tariff volatility I think that's a headline um and you know and certainly I'm not saying it doesn't matter but I think there's other things going on underneath the service here and uh credit is being um it's getting tighter right now you're seeing spreads widen a little bit here. And um there could be more to this. Now, we know Trump wants rates down, right? Um and I mean, what better way to do it, right, than uh good oldfashioned credit risk, right? So, you do have TLT getting a really good bid on Friday. Now, why I think this is separate, um you know, everybody's talking about, oh, the tariff this, tariff that. When we were doing tariffs in April and February, TLT got wrecked, right? Liberation day got wrecked. TLT. The dollar got wrecked as well. The dollar was down yesterday, right? Oil was down big. And we got to fix our our charts here because I forgot to adjust it. But there we go. Oil was down big, right? But TLT was up. That tells me the market's expecting credit contraction. Not so much it's worried about tariffs uh or or a trade, right? So, I'm not saying that that isn't a big part of it, but um I do think there's credit risk here. Um, it's a Roach Motel. So, you know, people say, "Oh, Jeffree is only a $10 billion company." Arc is only a $12 billion company. Yeah. But all of them together, uh, all these together, uh, make up a big deal. And I think the credit market is telling you that right now. Now, I also want to say this as well. Um, and you can see the KRE here, big cell, XLF, big breakdown, JPM, the Bank of America. These guys are exposed to a lot of toxic French debt, uh, European sovereign debt, and, um, specifically the reason why I highlighted Aerys Capital in my report is because they're 22% of their balance sheet is exposed to European companies, not so much that they own uh, not that AIS is exposed to um, sovereign debt in Europe, but surely the companies that they are u lending to are. And that can be problematic right now as European bonds are absolutely soaring. So, to be clear here, and there's broker dealers for you as well. Um, I don't think that this will on the financial side, I don't know what the tariff saga is. There was already some taco talk. Um, Trump already, you know, he can he can walk things back all he wants, anytime he wants, too. He can play with the market. And notice how he didn't I don't know if you guys caught this, but after we look at the futures here, it's just so convenient that, you know, he he said he doubled down again after the market closed and then after the futures closed, he started to walk it back a little bit. And you can see here the spy, which trades after hours um past 5:00 p.m. unlike ES did walk back, you know, it did bounce back up a little bit. So, and by the way, we are just from a technical standpoint, we are already like I mean this is a it wouldn't shock me to see a rebound Monday. I'll put it that way just based on the the the um just like the the straight extension of this type of a sell, right? If you look at um you know back in even in February, we we didn't have a single day like this where we just got that extended that quickly. Um and that if anything that's actually probably why it kept going because it didn't lead to panic very quickly, right? Um it was more of an inconspicuous. So I didn't start to see that panic towards the end. So I mean I could see a little bit of a rebound here Monday, but my point is um it's a lot to cover here so I'm I'm going all over the place. But in terms of financial sector problems, um this is being compared to well at least by me and um very few others cuz no one else is talking about it. But um it's being compared to the 2019 repo. And just to be clear, um this is the 2019 repo crisis. That's it. It it was just a 5 to 7% drop and most of it happened in two and a half days. Um the Fed, if there's problems here with um banks needing a discount window, uh sofur, all that stuff, they will plug that up very quickly. Um another reason why, right, this is I think there's a pocket of weakness here, reverse repo's done. There's about 4 billion left. It's it's basically empty, right? So it's kind of this perfect storm here. And then you throw tariffs on top of that and um you know a market that's just overleveraged. Dealers selling puts to finance calls um just massive massive you know greed in some of these momentum stocks right that unwind and you know again when it when these trades work right you know on these tech stocks they work and then they double down and then they double down again and eventually you're levered 50 to1 and all it takes is a 1% drop to trigger margin right then that becomes three and a half. So, um, that's how that's how these things compound. Now, I don't think it'll take them long to plug this up, but, um, you know, it it could it could get sharp very quickly, right? Um, and that that just seems to be the boom bust cycle. Now, I know Jason and I have talked about this, you know, many times before, but the boom bust cycle is shortened. I mean, look at this, right? Uh, you even look back at um the the pandemic, right? You know, it's like 30% in like 8 weeks. uh you know earlier this year 25% in like eight nine weeks right we had that the um the yen you know that was 10 12% in in two weeks right um so I think that you know we can see some sharp declines here it's certainly possible um but I I don't think it takes them too long and then we have a Fed meeting later this month on the 30th or 29th I believe of uh October so I just can't imagine and the Fed knows that repo is being drained out it's not like they're stupid I I mean, they they see it. So, I'm sure that they they they have some thoughts on how to manage that, but there's definitely a pocket of risk here and um you know, it took a little bit longer than expected, but um you know, I'll take the volatility. I'll I'll take the volatility as a trader. So, anyway, right now um I know I got uh so we did break our trend line here. Um we could see a little bit of a bounce. Don't forget next week is options X for month of October. So, if this market stabilizes a little bit here, again, we did just sell straight to the 50 moving average, like with in one shot. And um if you take a look here, I've got this tool that I I like to use sometimes, but um you can see the yellow line here is two standard deviations from the 20-day. So, I mean, you can see we're we're already at that. So, we we may see a little bit of a rebound here. Um, and if the market stabilizes into opex, it may it may just chop sideways until then. Um, and then maybe we could see a little bit of continuation risk after that if the banks, you know, don't get plugged up right away. So, yeah, lots of, you know, lot it's like nothing. First four days of the week, nothing happens. We got government shutdown. We are not getting any data and then we get to all of it all at once. So, very good stuff. If we do continue to to decline, obviously, you know, 6100, 6150 is going to be a big level there. Um, you do have the August highs at 6,500 and the 50 MA. So, you know, maybe you get a pierce of that Monday, a turnaround Tuesday for a rebound. Um, you know, if they walk back the we get a taco trade, you know, maybe we gap up uh Monday morning. There's a lot of scenarios here that can happen and it's always difficult trying to gauge it when this when these types of things happen on a Friday. But I would say right now short-term immediate short-term bulls you got to reclaim 6600 to get any sort of um you know intraday squeeze going and um you know you can kind of work from there. Losing the 50-day would obviously um you know be problematic if we can't um recover it very quickly. U you know we could see 6350 fast if that happens. Um, by the way, again, I know there's a lot to cover here and I'm just kind of going all over the place, but um, just a lot of stuff, but by the way, um, again, if if we don't get some sort of taco or Uncle Scott, Scott Bessant Magic, um, Sunday, like you can see where dealers are are hedged for Monday at 590 on the cues. Um, that there's nothing past that. they are um you know the market's caught with its pants down right now where considering where the Q's closed um if we see any more downside there it could cause a scramble for edges. So there's a lot going on here. Um you know Monday I can't tell you which way it's going to go but I can look at the levels and um you know we can get the we just have to react from there really. I will say right now shortterm um VIX 25 I think will get defended by sellers. Um I did see some interest come up past that uh at 35, but I don't think it gets hit right away. That would be kind of my general lean, but I think 25 should be about it for now. So anyway, you know, a lot to get into here. Um IWM down 3%. You know, double top took it a little bit of time engulfing on the weekly. Dow. We talked about 458. It did close below that. So, break down there. And the other thing I've been saying all week long is if we're going to get any sort of meaningful pullback, semiconductors need to die, right? And they, you know, they did on volume here. So, it does appear to be a legit sell. That does not mean that we can't bounce. But, um, you know, sellers have made some progress here. IGV breakdown there. Transports break down there as well. We were looking for trend in this. said this for like three weeks and it may be coming here. All right, quickly try to get through the the usual stuff here, but there was a longer intro than normal due to the uh fireworks. Um yeah, two-year yield down did not make a new low. Fives, tens, and 30s down as well obviously. So bond market, you know, it's thankfully for us in the US it's doing what it should in this situation. XHP down, excuse me, 1.5. That was getting interesting on the weekly, but very good outside move down um on Friday and and really the whole week. So, the lower rates not really helping XHP here. It's got to hold that 200 day moving average. IYR also breaking down as well, right into this trend line here. But I don't like how we failed on that inside bar on the weekly. We talked about banks XLF down losing the 100 day. KRE um lost the daily inside bar and the weekly. So again, those are failures. I don't think this bank stuff is over with yet. Oil selling off as well, right? So this this really to me says more it's it's contractionary. um at least right now in the short term. I do think 2026 can be a big year for energy, but um right now in the short term, uh this needs to wash out a little bit. So, I was looking for a flush early this week on oil and we didn't get that. But what we did do is we bounced for 4 days and now we're flushing again. So, sellers have reset here. They have a little bit of room. They, you know, this can get a little bit more oversold here. Actually, I shouldn't say that. It was oversold. It's not oversold anymore even though we flushed because we've had a nice little bare flag bounce. So, I wouldn't get in front of oil just yet, but I I am watching it close for a good rebound. XLE also flushing out. XOP and OIH, you know, they were get they were so close to getting it going and then they got hit. I think next um next year though is possibly the year for energy. Um dollar index rebounding nicely this week. It did come down Friday. dollar yen big outside move here again uh Japan yen getting hit and um it did you know obviously it reversed here 155 would be a level to watch for forex volatility. So that was an all, you know, that's another thing, too. If this, if this puts in a higher low here and goes to 155, that's going to compound the banking problems and liquidity problems. But right now, you know, it dollar a dollar yen had a really good surge here, so I'm not surprised it pulled back, but um you know, obviously big dump on Friday. Gold here, uh had a reversal on Thursday with volume. Gold may have it may have stalled out a little bit finally. So, we hit 4,000 this week. And um again, I talked about this before. I said when gold reverses, it's not shy. It does it dramatically with volume. And it did that um Thursday. We rebounded Friday. I predicted we would rebound Friday um on gold and silver. But we'll see if this can make new highs. It can make new highs. But until it takes out this this um 4081 here on a close, I think we might have a little bit of a reversal. And you can see silver here as well. It hit 50 on the futures. I think it hit 51 on spot and then big dramatic reversal here. That doesn't mean that they're done, but may we may be getting ready for consolidation here. I have been hearing a lot of reports the LBMA is in trouble. Um they're flying it out by plane, I guess. Um which is a signal of I usually ship it out by ocean, right? So, they're scrambling here, but um I'm just going off off what the charts are saying right now. You can see the miners, too. SIL and SILJ, you know, big reversal candles with volume. So, again, just be careful here. We'll see what happens next week. Platinum had a good um had a good breakout here that did come in Thursday and Friday. And Palladium had a breakout week here, which came in Thursday and Friday as well. These can um you know sometimes when gold and silver stall out these will run. Uh in fact if you look at like palladium back in 2020 2021 they made highs well after gold topped. So um you know they're not always the same but either way they're holding up. Copper obviously a big breakdown. Again, this leads me to believe there's more to the credit stuff here, right? We had dollar down, yields down, copper down, oil down, markets down. That's a traditional risk. By the way, utilities were down, but they held up. Consumer staples, the only sector that was green Friday. It like it's a typical Rword, right? Recession type trade. I I think it was I think there's a lot more to it than just tariffs, to be honest. We'll see if I end up being wrong or not. One way or another, never ever ignore bank weakness. I told everybody that February 21st um earlier this year and that was the right thing. Bitcoin big wash out there. ETH wash out there. They got to our trend line finally. We'll be I'll be interested to see how crypto performs here, but good wash out and good recovery though. The one thing I like about Bitcoin right now as opposed to stocks and by the way, look at this. I mean, charts are cool, right? Right into that little I mean, it overshot, but look at where it's settling. Um, but the one thing I'll say about Bitcoin is if you look at like you look at this chart, it's actually so much more healthier to me than than the stock market because you have a base here, you have a base here, you've got a big base here, you've got a nice um, you know, a nice like uptrend, right? It's like a healthy trend here, right? Uh whereas if you look at the S&P what is I mean this is just a like this is all just let me use a clean chart here right this is all just air there's no there's no base right until you get back to like the breakout you know if you look at a weekly chart here where's the support you didn't like there's no support built and there's the cues as well they didn't really build much support here on the way up. So that can be problematic on the way back down. Whereas you look at Bitcoin, this is all, you know, it's nice how it's just walking up the stairs. So I I I do think that's the positive here for crypto at least. But anyway, enough of that. Um yeah, so interesting week. Definitely broke that trend line finally. Uh yeah, 6500's next down, you know, and then 6600 S&P, you know, can get a little bit of a squeeze going uh in the short run. But yeah, it should should be interesting October here. Um yeah, people are talking about Jeff. Not a lot of people are talking about the other ones, though. Keep an eye on that. That could be the next shoe to drop here. So anyways, that's it. We'll wrap it up for this week. You guys take care. Don't forget to come find Jason on Patreon. Come find me on carnivore.com. We'll see you guys all next