Market Outlook: The podcast discusses the concept of the "golden age of grift," highlighting concerns about currency debasement and the potential for a global economic shift towards real assets.
Investment Strategy: A barbell approach is recommended, balancing real assets like commodities and emerging markets with growth assets, to hedge against currency debasement and market volatility.
Real Assets Focus: Emphasis is placed on investing in real assets such as gold, platinum, and commodities, with a specific mention of the potential benefits of holding physical platinum due to supply constraints.
Global Economic Insights: The discussion covers the geopolitical landscape, including the impact of US-China relations, the potential for a resolution in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the strategic importance of securing critical metals.
Brazil Investment Thesis: Brazil is highlighted as a promising investment opportunity due to its high real interest rates, undervalued market, and potential political changes that could drive economic growth.
Sector Opportunities: The podcast identifies opportunities in sectors like offshore oil services and critical metals, particularly in response to US government initiatives to address supply chain vulnerabilities.
Market Risks: The risks associated with speculative investments and the potential for market corrections are discussed, emphasizing the importance of a diversified investment approach.
Valuation Concerns: The conversation critiques the current market environment where traditional valuation metrics are often overlooked, stressing the importance of common sense in investment decisions.
Transcript
beginning of 25. I said, "2025 is the golden age of grift." And when I said that, I had some friends over. Some friends were telling me, "I thought when you said it, you were exaggerating, but now I think you were being a bit too conservative. It's so much worse. >> Good morning. >> How are you, Jens? >> Good afternoon for for us. Good morning to you. >> We are We are going well, mate. Appreciate you jumping on at such short notice, mate. Excited to >> I missed you guys. I I I've been feeling like we had to do this. It's been a while. >> Yeah. Yeah. How's things on your end, mate? How's life been? >> Fantastic. It's been fantastic. >> And you know what? I'm actually loving that we're doing this. Uh I'll mention the call anyway. >> But we always do this at a turning point. So, I'm just glad we're doing it now. >> What was that? What was our turning point last time? >> It was, >> dude. Last time we were basically I was invited during like a really bad moment in miners where everyone was depressed and I was like I was telling you guys I spoke to everyone in mining and they were all so depressed that I just went out and I bought like Glen Core Angla and all that >> Yes. >> And then a few days later the Chinese came out with like a stimulus plan. >> I remember that. I also remember there was like >> and I was like and I told you by the way at the time I was like I'm so glad we're doing this because everyone is so depressed in mining. I think it's a good time to be buying buying all these things. >> Yes, >> we we um what was what was the I think and I feel like you were toying around with buying SPSW puts sorry coals as well and um and Calvin was um Calvin was like projecting that that you know the end of the world was happening for SPSW but meanwhile he was loading up he was loading up on coals as well. He nailed it by the way. I think he I think he manifested a bottom. Yeah, I was buying platinum as well. So I was like bullish platinum bullish miners buying all those things. L shrub. It's an age of debasement because grift brings debasement. Simple as that. It is kind of simple when you say it like that. >> Keep it simple. Shrub kiss. >> You never cease to make us laugh and reflect on I I I think just like the state of the macro world in such like a simple but funny way. I thought that that that one sentence, that phrase is just um it's perfect. Of course. Of course. Grift brings to basement. Like it's so simple when you when you think about it. Of course, >> throughout the ages, throughout the millennia, that's the way it was. And you know, we we live in the golden age of grift. It's quite funny like when I coined the phrase, you know, I said like 2024, in 2024, I said that's going to be the year of Tamagotchi Yelen because, you know, Yellen just drove the whole market. And then in beginning of 25, I said 2025 is the golden age of grift. And uh when I said that, I had some friends over. Um some friends were telling me, I thought when you said it, you were exaggerating, but now I think you were being a bit too conservative. It's so much worse. So So you know, fast forward like eight months later, it is so much worse. And um I think that's where a lot of people got blindsided that, you know, we are characterized by grift. And like you said, currency debasement is an obvious feature of the golden age of grift. Like this is what happened during the Roman times when you know they were chopping off bits from the silver coins uh you know to uh well that was a element of grift right and that was the first case of currency debasement and this is where we are like currency debasement just suits everyone and is it's a key feature. Um, and you know, a lot of people are going to be trying to be contrarian and say that's not going to keep going, but man, it is a feature. It's very very tough to bet against it. Um, it's it it's a uh it's a pretty longdated feature what what you're talking about there, but it's also not right. Like what we're talking about is, you know, in the space of eight months, it's so noticeable. So, how do you how do you think about it sort of playing out in in time scales? Yeah, look I I think in this one case bear in mind like I've lived through debasement because I grew up in uh Cyprus and uh you know Greece. So back before the you know before the euro so I remember vividly when things would cost like uh 300 dramas and a few years later they would be costing like a thousand dramas. But you know those places were more emerging market. So you know there were consequences that were felt immediately like you know we had a socialist government for a long time and then that got replaced by a right-wing government to fix things and then that brought the euro so it brought some stability there which by the way the euro brought deflation by itself and with the consequences of the of Brexit and the European crisis. But in this case, it's actually way worse in in in what way? The US is the reserve currency. So, like you said, it's a it's a long it's a longer time frame that we're playing for and even there we felt it noticeably in one year. But because it's a reserve currency, they can get away with a lot of things in the meantime. And they can also be arrogant enough not to halt it. And I think that's the key thing that is missed by quite a few is that you know if if the administration believes in American exceptionalism like the previous one by the way because let's not you know I'm I'm I'm an equal opportunity. You know I just make a parody of this of both administrations just so we're clear. Um, I think the previous guys were actually worse than the current guys because they were covert about it and you know they were just printing to get reelected and now the current guys are kind of like they they actually tried not to print and for a few brief moments in time, you know, Main Street was winning against Wall Street for like six days when they said, "Oh, we we actually have to, you know, re in on the US debt. We have to re in this currency debasement." But it lasted about 6 days and then they just gave up and said, "Well, actually can't really do that. We're going to have to run it hot, which is effectively like currency debasement." So, so how this plays out, it's just going to keep going until something breaks. And I don't know what breaks. I don't know if it's going to be the bond market that that uh shakes them or if it's going to be the currency. I mean, look, the currency has been in a steady. I've been a dollar bear for like the last year since the inauguration and um and uh now it feels like very consensus. I know it. Um and I wouldn't be surprised if the dollar actually just stays here. But you know, I think it's I think the next phase is a global debasement. So not just not the dollar going to like 140 with the euro. It's just kind of like everything getting debased. Um and I think that's going to be a feature again of the next uh like you said it's going to be like a long feature uh of the situation because you know there's so many macro elements to it. There is a reshoring there is a u you know creating new alliances. There's still like um supply disruption. So all these things are like require money to be spent. There's no way about it. So you look forward in the future, are we going to have like a new Thatcher? Are we going to have like a new uh Vulker? I mean, let's just reflect on the last meeting, you know, the last Fed meeting. We didn't have a Vulker. We had uh, you know, one uh guy desenting for 50 bips, which was Steve Miran. Um and then we had everyone else uh you know pretending that they did an insurance cut but actually you know they all want to cut more in reality. Um so we're it's you know this thing about the the Fed being hawkish or doubbish. Now the Fed is rarely hawkish. I mean, they were hawkish in 2022 after they blew up, but you know, they're they're kind of like in a very strange situation now where they're pretending um that they have things under control, but they they've lost control in reality from before. And uh that's that's a whole new discussion that I'm bringing up to be honest, but it's it's quite important because, you know, if the Fed is the one that's supposed to uh to be reigning in on things, I kind of I kind of think, you know, they lost the plot from COVID times to be honest. And this is where we are like, you know, you ask the average person if they were better off. I mean, you know, the your grocery bills are higher. They're not coming down. And you know, the Fed is partly partly to blame. So, we're really going to be trusting these people to solve things. No, I don't think so. Gold is telling you that as well, by the way. So, >> totally. you you've got such a a light-hearted way of of putting it all and you know sort of calling out the stuff like Zuckerberg and the hot mic in in the meeting there and and pal and and Trump you know quabbling over over the bill and these sorts of things but they're they're pretty sort of serious challenges all the same is your framing just to to kind of get long real assets and and you know partake a bit on the side with with gag with the the golden age and these sorts of things like how do you think about it all? >> Yeah. So I have a very very simple view that I'm trying to get people's minds around because it's something that if you don't understand you're going to blow up. So, you know, I'm I for my sins, I'm a boomer and I've lived through 200, you know, 2008 crisis, lived through 2000. Uh, but 2009, 2008 was very memorable to me and um, you know, I was lucky enough to be working for one of the guys from the big short who was a genius and, you know, nailed the trade and, you know, we made a lot of money during the crash. But, you know, the mentality of a lot of people from my generation is that they always expect a crash. And they always expect like a deflationary crash whereby equities are going to crash, bonds are going to rally, we're going to have like a price discovery in assets. They're going to buy things like 20 cents on the dollar and they're going to make money on the recovery. But that's because you know my same boss at the time who I again I say he was a genius. He said something very smart at that time. He said every crisis is different. So the new crisis cannot be like the old crisis. So the new crisis cannot be like 2008. So what I'm trying to get people to understand through my writings and my memes and you know usually they get it after the memes. Maybe they don't read the writings but they read the memes they get the memes is when you're in a golden age of grift with a currency debasement focus you should be thinking not about 2008 crash. You should be thinking that at the end of the day your currency is going to be worthless. So you you have like the left tail and you have the right tail. You have to be thinking about different scenario. So you could like there is a small chance you get an there is a small chance you get like a 2008 sorry 2000 crash because of an AI capex bubble but there's also a chance that you get like a Zimbabwe Argentina stock market whereby you just debase your currency and you have to be in real assets. So the way I approach my portfolio construction is this. I tell people in the golden age of grift you need to have real assets. You have to have a barbell approach. So you need to have on one barbell. You need to have the real assets that you guys talk about all the time. All the all the stocks and commodities that you guys talk about, it's that barb bill. Plus emerging markets, by the way, because emerging markets like Brazil, for example, they're going to be massive beneficiaries of debasement. Um, so that's one barbell. On the other bar, you can just put whatever you want. You can put like, you know, can put like growth assets or, you know, you can put your golden age of grift trades that I put on um I have a lot of uh and uh you know, you can just play around with the with the simple thought that if there is a debasement, you're going to have something left. If there's a crash, you're going to have something left. because you know everyone comes out and you know they have a very strong view about oh the market is gonna keep going or the market's going to crash. It's like guys I'm really not that smart for that So basically I just want to like I'm managing my own money. I just want to at the end of the day I want to make money and I want to survive and I want to have capital left over under all circumstances because that's what I do for a living. So I think the only sensible approach is a barbell approach. Um and within that barbell approach the other way to think about it is um when things are getting stretched like now which I think we're a very interesting turning point and we can talk about that later you know if you spend like a little bit of premium in puts it's like a sacrifice to the market gods. So >> a blood sacrifice >> you know >> it's a blood sacrifice like you look you've had a good run everything is up in your portfolio you know you go to the market goes and you say okay I offer you this blood sacrifice and you know spend like 50 bips in puts and here you go be kind be gentle >> I love I love hearing you you talk about this barbell strategy and of course the appeal of real assets you know um given given the the macro backdrop the golden age of grift is so compelling and you brought up gold earlier but I do note you know in your own portfolio a lack of allocation to gold specifically I know you're long platinum but why like why why like you speak the language of um the gold bulls so we're in a permanent stage of thinking like this by the way but you don't you don't have the allocation of the gold bulls >> yeah because I have the burden of knowledge unfortunately um and that's why I messed I messed up the trade. Like I did really well with platinum this year. It was like up up 50% on it. Um and I'm still quite bullish on it actually. But on the gold side, it's always about, you know, the history of your previous trades and what you live through. So the last time I bought gold was 2008 when, you know, I saw my boss just go all in in gold. And I was so afraid about the world that I actually went and I put like a third of my money, like I put a third of all my all my assets actually in uh physical gold. Like I went and bought bars and put them in a safe. And then fast forward like that was at 950. And fast forward like a year or two later, gold was at 1,500. I'm like, "Oh, that's awesome. Okay, fine." So I just went cashed out my bars. I saw gold run up to 1,800 and I felt I'm such an idiot because all my friends and colleagues, they just kept riding it. And then um that thing crashed back to 900. Oh, and by the way, the miners did so badly at that point because, you know, I remember I had a lot of friends who were buying the miners and uh I was like, "Oh, there you go. Gold is like Buffett was right." like gold, you just buy it when you're really afraid of the world and you don't bother again. Um, so I I made good money. Like I mean, look, I was young and I made I put a pretty big bet, so it was good money for me. Um, and I didn't I never bought physical again. And you know, since then, I've been telling myself like, you only really want to buy gold when you want to buy it physical. That's the time you really want to be buying gold. And to be honest, I think we kind of had that moment a year ago or sorry, a few years ago when, you know, the geopolitics changed so much uh maybe actually from Ukraine actually when you're like, you probably want to own physical gold here. And I think that was a turning point that I should have just uh woken up and just done it. Um but you know the way I see it though just to uh give me a give me a break is I kind of just bundle everything together. Like I don't feel I need to own gold but I feel like I need to own real assets. So for example, you know, I bundle these things, you know, I have miners that have done as well. You know, I have other metals that have done as well as gold. So I always make sure I have that allocation and that's something I don't touch. I want to have like the minimum should be like 20%. With all these things cuz I know like this guy Gunda came out and said, "Oh, you should put 25% of your money in gold." It's like dude, thank you so much. Like thank you so much for the uh uh lesson in hindsight and back trading. 25% great. That that's not how I see it. like put 25% in real assets and you'll feel better. You like 5% gold, 5% platinum, 5% copper, 5% whatever something, you know, something in Australia that's safe versus other parts of the world. I think the real asset category should be quite broader. I mean, you know, whenever I bring it up, actually, it's quite funny because like you like you just asked me why don't I own gold? I get crypto guys asking me, "You've given this lecture about real assets. Why don't you own Bitcoin and I'm like because I don't need to. I own other stuff that I like, but that trade the same." In fact, I mean, platinum outperformed Bitcoin by like three times this year, but no one talks about it, right? So, you know, stuff like that. I think there there's always a narrative attached to it as well, right? Right. The Bitcoin guys are just so persuasive. Like the crypto guys are so persuasive and you're like, "Why are you guys trying so hard?" Oh, because you're trying to pump your Okay, I get it. Whereas real asset guys, like, you know, the gold bugs, the platinum bugs, the silver bugs, like you're not really trying to pump anything because it's been there for like 5,000 years. And you know we okay there's the occasional gold conference that they all go you know hold hands and sing kumbaya but you know that's not really what's driving the price of gold. So, you know, my my point is like different people have a different idea about real assets and I actually do, you know, I'm I'm sympathetic to the idea of Bitcoin being a real asset as well nowadays, uh, for the, you know, for digital nomads. And there there's actually like a whole there there's a whole argument why you should include some Bitcoin in the real asset bucket. And I think that argument um goes back to my thinking about uh you know my my my fear in 2008 that I had to go out and buy bars. Like why did I have to go and buy gold bars? I was actually afraid of the banks because I was short all the banks and I'm like oh the banks are going to blow up. I might as well just hold gold bars. So now fast forward to today we don't have the fear of the of the of the banks blowing up but we have the fear of the governments blowing up and we have the fear of actually getting debanked. Um, and what do I mean by that? Like the UK arrests people for tweeting the wrong So, you know, imagine if I tweet out the wrong and the UK comes to me and says, "Oh, I'm going to seize your house in the UK." Uh, well, you can seize my house in the UK, but you're not going to seize my Bitcoin kind of thing. So, there is, I think, that extra element that we have to be thinking now. And that's why, you know, I'm not against some digital asset allocation from a safety perspective, but you know, of course, that just depends on a person um on a personal basis. >> Shrub's got his portfolio of real assets and his whole barbell approach. And if you're thinking about a barbell approach and real assets, well, I know what conference that we're going to in Sydney next month very shortly. There'll be a lot of real assets floating around. >> That's it, mate. October 21st to October 23rd. IMARK in Sydney. Get your tickets. Details in the show notes. If you want to buy real assets, you need to learn about mining companies and commodities. Why not speak with other investors, speak with the companies themselves, speak with the service providers. No better way to get up to speed. >> Why are you pumped to go to IMAK JD? >> Mate, I'm pumped to go to Sydney, your favorite city. I'm pumped to speak with a bunch of people. We've already slotted in some cool interviews we're going to do, mate. There's a lot of reasons to get excited. How about yourself? >> We're keen to see you there, Money Miners. If you're at IMAK joining us, come say good day to us. >> Get your tickets to IMAK today. One of the uh the funniest things you've written this this year was you sort of made made commentary about catching up with a with a doctor in in Cyprus who who brings up a biotech which you know is a is an Ethereum sort of holding unit type thing. And to tie that in with something you said earlier, it seems like we're at some sort of turning point type thing. So yeah, how do how do you think about the the really sort of recent runup in in things like Ethereum and and other kind of speckies out there? >> Yeah. So that was a really funny story because I was you know I was sitting down down with this doctor 75 years old very respected one of the best in his fields and you know he starts talking about the he he starts asking me about the stock market and uh and then I ask him it's like did you um do you buy any biotech cuz I'm actually you know I I love investing in biotech and I was hoping for like this revelation like you know hearing from a specialist about any new inventions or progress in in biotech and he says, "Oh yeah, I just bought this biotech company because they're going to switch to becoming an Ethereum treasury holding company." And I'm like, "Oh my god, this is a 75year-old doctor. He's investing in a bite company because they're going to be buying Ethereum. Okay, this is it. That's kind of done." So I use this little anecdotes as as a as a benchmark of how invested people in people are in these things. Um anecdotally by the way I don't know that many people who are long gold in size. So that's interesting. Like all these boomers like this guy doesn't own gold for example doesn't own miners but he owns a stupid Ethereum treasury company. So I I think this trade is like these treasury companies are fundamentally stupid. Um people are going to I mean the underlying might do okay but there is zero reason for these things to trade at a premium to NAV and I'm just glad we're doing this conversation in money of mine because you guys are familiar with the u spot >> uh ur uran yeah yeah exactly with the uranium trusts. So here you have like the uranium trust and they were trading at a big discount and we're talking about a scarce resource that is actually has a deficit. So imagine uranium is trading at a deficit uh and and the spud is trading at a discount but suddenly you have all these shitcoins getting put in treasury companies and they all expected to trade at a premium so they can share issue more shares to the monkeys so they can buy more of the worthless coins. And we're talking about like a lot of these coins getting circulated. I mean, it's kind of like a stupid thing that is going to correct itself down the line. Um, but it also tells you that we are we are at a turning point and we're seeing some naent signs. It's it's a bit like 2021, remember where everyone was long all the crap and no one was long like the real stuff? Uh and then there was like this big wave that just came and just uh you know gave this massive rotation out of Ponzi into real assets like in this case it's a bit more nuanced because we are in the golden age of grift. Um but it tells you that there is a lot of capital still that is getting allocated and that capital you know hopefully it ends up in some some of the stuff we own right. Um I mean we already had some very interesting uh developments in Kumaris this year with you know I mean the the most interesting development for me was uh when the US government pretty much backs stopped uh MP materials right so from that point you created like a completely different theme in commodities. I mean, as someone else smarter than me than me framed it, he said, "In the past, we used to invest in commodities that the Chinese were short of, and now we're we should be investing in commodities that the US is short of." That's actually like a really insightful comment that you can just create a whole portfolio out of this. So, you basically the moment that the US is panicking about their own shortfalls, well, you should be looking at projects in the US that that address those shortfalls. and you know that could benefit from um uh from any backs stop uh from the government like this is actually one thing this is one of the of the u bene sorry this is one of the good things of the golden age of grift that the US government is doing the right thing in this point and this is something that they should keep going and this is something that they should be spending money on because this is addressing a major imbalance that's been building on over the last like 20 30 Right. I mean, classic example, you know, all these, you know, the tungsten mines that they closed 30 years ago or the tin mines like, you know, remember they used to have like tin mines in the US. Not anymore. So, so you have all these things that need to be addressed and this is something that's going to take time and this is actually quite bullish for for very for very niche parts of the market. So I'm not going to say that it's like a you know super bullish uh for you know global commodity market but it's very bullish for certain producers in the US. the the I I read your article when when you you published an update on commodities like in with explicit reference to that MP materials deal and your thought process as you you're you know trying to brainstorm what's next what what metals is the US short of that could be next you rattle through the likes of uh antimony tin copper >> have you have you has your thinking evolved on that front on uh on what could be next in in predicting yeah the kind of Yeah. So I I I think like the rare earths is going to keep going because they this was like step one but they still need to address you know the heavy rare earths and you know just complete the whole supply chain because you know there's different elements to the supply chain like you can guarantee the you know the price uh you know can put a floor on the price but you also need like the refining and everything around it or the recycling uh element to it. That's number one. Then number two, I'm actually surprised they haven't done it with Antimony. I mean, with Antimony, they've given them some grants, but that's also a critical part they have to address. Uh, Tungsten, I think, is an easy one. Um, I mean, there's, you know, there's a couple projects there that are there supporting. Um, copper, they might actually build the road of Trilogy, right? I mean, they're they've been trying to build that road for since whenever. Um, so that's actually I I would love to see that road get built. Um, and that would be like a major uh major achievement. So I think the easier ones are like rarers, tungsten and timony. Uh, make some progress with key projects like copper. Um, um, stuff like northern dynasty I still think are never going to get built. Um, you know, for the reason being building a copper mine like trilogy, you know, literally you just have to make a few people shut up and you just build a road and you're done. Whereas in the case of Modern Dynasty, I think it just it's way too much. Like it takes a lot to get someone to build that mine cuz I think that mine can only be built by like Riotinto or BHP and they're not going to touch it. It's just too difficult. I mean, there are environmental risks to it. I mean, I've I've invested in that thing like 15 years ago and it was like evident that it's too risky. So So I think we're going to draw a line with like simple stuff, basically things that make common sense. I I think tungsten antimony makes common sense. Trilogy makes common sense. The rare earths they they make common sense. And I think they you know the government should really be putting money in all these things like aggressive. Um speeding up permits for smaller copper projects definitely. Um, and you know, the other thing I'm a bit surprised is they they should I mean, this trade war was too aggressive because they should have been building like uh alliances with other neighboring commodity producers like with Canada for example. Like it was an easy win to create alliances with Canada for the supply of critical metals. Um, I mean the one thing that I'm actually still super bullish on that no one talks about and no one has is tin. >> Now we talk about >> this is Yeah, I know you guys talk about it. So like so so we're kind of like the minority of like 10 people that talk about tin, but this is actually quite quite incredible. It's a we're we're so niche. We're like the niche of the niche. [Music] We're like, >> I'm pumped about, you know, >> I'm so pumped. I'm so pumped about tin. >> Oh, there you go. I'm in the right I'm glad I'm in the right podcast because I I'm super excited. I'll tell you why. Because I see people like pump all these uh Okay, I I get the story with Antimony and um Tungsten, you know, these are very credible stories. Uh but you know they're also up like 10 times from the lows. Um and you know these projects now make sense only with a floor. Like the government has to give them a floor to justify um the investment. Otherwise no one in their right mind is going to go out and build a tungsten mine based on the spot price. Like you you just wouldn't do that because you know the spot price is going to go down 50% in the next few years when the new projects come in from any country ending with Stan. Right. There there's a lot of projects in these countries with stands that uh Tajjikistan, Kazakhstan and all these ones. So you know you can just get new supply from these. But in the case of tin like the supply def the the deficit is so obvious the supply side is so bad. The demand side is just going through the roof and no one cares about it. And it's it's actually so quiet that people are not even talking about it as a critical metal as if you can have your semiconductors and your wonderful AI without tin. I mean it's actually like a beautiful setup remains like um you know I'm still bullish in your it's actually the only stock I own in Australia still I've owned it for a few years is Metals X. >> I just I just refuse to sell it. I bought it like 15 20 cents. I'm like not selling that thing. Um, >> yeah, >> it it it's just insane. Like there is Have you seen a new tin mine? Like every every new tin project I see is like a it's just crap. There's nothing in there. >> Yeah, undoubtedly Alpha Min is a a much better project, but you have to be comfortable in Sure. in a different jurisdiction. And in the case of of metals, ding ding ding, I should disclose on some too. Um, >> I'm pretty I'm like I've got no confirmation of this, but I'm pretty sure they're land banking like the the the pipeline of development projects. That's what these 20% stakes are in the in the tin juniors. Like like why do you have multiple 20 like 20% plus stakes in tin juniors unless it's a land banking strategy. So like that just that just that that further complicates your supply story if if the the west's other development um opportunities don't actually have a a feasible pathway to development in the near term. >> I I agree. I don't think it's that bad what they're doing. >> They're just uh laying a game on all these little projects. Yeah, >> I mean look, Alphamine is a great project for sure, but you know, I just I I used to own it, by the way. Um, I just can't be bothered to look at news about uh Rwanda and the DRC. I just can't be bothered. So, that's why I'm out of it. Uh, but great project, sure, but I just rather just uh run with Metals X. And I I was hoping secretly that they would take out their JV partner and just be done with it. Um, hopefully that happens down the line. If that happens, that stock is just going to go like 2 3x cuz it just cleans up the whole thing. But you know, go going back to the example like Metals X is trading at what like two three times EB done nowadays. So you basically have a critical metal the only Western company doing it. trading at two three times. No one gives a because just because you know let's let's chase something else that's shiny and uh Trump said it you know if Trump says tin it's going to go up 100%. But he doesn't say tin he says like rare earths so let's just buy rare earth. Yeah, your point on alienating Canada despite them being a a resources ally is is super interesting as well because they're really cozying up to the DRC on that kind of topic. They're trying pretty hard to settle down what's happening in in the sort of wartorn part of the country talking about starting this new fund where people are going to invest targeting places like the the DRC. So the uh the geopolitical kind of strategy is interesting to piece together. Yeah, look, I I think the DRC has a great story with the US and it does make a lot of sense and um in in fact when um I mean the conflict between Rwanda and the DRC ended with US intervention which was really interesting and actually very bullish for Alphamin. So that's why I'm not against Alphamid. But having said that, you know, the area always boils into something else. So for example, there was a CIA uh coup attempt in the DRC like just recently actually which failed. Um and in the DRC, you know, I I do know for for a fact that there's a lot of uh you remember Vagner, the the Russian mercenaries. Yeah. So there's a lot of uh Russian mercenaries who operate in the DRC for a very simple reason. Like these guys were fighting against Ukraine. And you know, these guys are vagabonds. They're out in the DRC trying to secure mines. So, you know, it's not it's not without risk. Now, if the US thinks tin is so important, they'll probably go and secure the, you know, they can secure alphamin in like one day, right? But, um, why bother when I can just buy Metals X? I mean, sorry. Kind of just seeing it that way, but I'm not against it. Like, like I said, I'm just not against it. I'm just a I'm just a little bit older and I just don't want to bother reading news about Rwanda. you you've written a bit about uh a potential resolution between uh Ukraine and and Russia as well. Curious honing in on the commodities aspect and perhaps touching on inflation as well, how you think that could play out if we if we see a a resolution there in the in the near term. >> Yeah. So I I've actually like I was um expecting some progress and I did get like that runup uh to it and the more it drags I think the more pessimistic I'm getting and what I I'll tell you the where I am and what could happen. So um unfortunately right now the Putin has created a wartime economy and once you create a wartime economy whereby your whole economy depends on building weapons, recruiting young men to send to to war uh everything of around the economy revolves around supplying the the war machine. It's very difficult you as an autocrat to just suddenly come out and say, "Oh, we're doing we're going to have peace now." Okay, say you have peace. Well, what now? What's going to happen to your economy? Like those factories where you make your tanks, what are they going to do now? You're going to switch to making AI chips. You can't even program. Like you're a donkey. So like these guys are just, you know, no offense to them, but you know, they've turned into like uh 1984 type monkeys whereby, you know, the machine is just feeding the war. And if you want to keep control of the country, you can't really stop that war. It becomes like the endless war like 1984, you know? It just keeps going. And unfortunately, this is where we are with Russia right now. It's very sad because I would like this to end. Um, so that's why I'm kind of negative to it and and also there's incentives from other places like China kind of benefits from the tension because they're getting cheap energy at the same time. Um, and now they've supply they're going to have this pipeline uh the gas pipeline as well which was a big win for Chi. Um, so I'm kind of pessimistic on having progress. That's number one. But number two, if there is progress and if there's a ceasefire, I mean certain areas could get impacted. But I mean the supply chains have changed so much to accommodate like product has found its way around all these sanctions like no one can say that Russian oil isn't getting pumped and exported. It is I mean it's getting sent to India and it's getting sent to China or Russian paladium. I mean Russian paladium is still h is still finding its way to Europe. So I actually don't think it's going to make that it will have some impact but it's not going to be huge. Where it will make some impact is in the general inflation topline because wars are inflationary. So all these uh supply chain workthroughs once they you know once they come out you will have like a deflationary effect naturally also just just just on the on the cause of spending all this money well you're going to spend less money which is deflationary by itself like um you know NATO is going to spending 5% of their GDP or something stupid. So, so once you have all these general spending around uh around the war machine just come down, well, that's going to be just it will be beneficial for uh for lower inflation, but it remains to be seen. Like even Trump said himself like he was disappointed with with Putin. Um so I don't know more sanctions are not going to do much. I think >> I I I'd love to hear your your Brazil thesis. Tell me tell me why like why Brazil was going to be a massive beneficiary of debasement. >> Yeah. So the thing with Brazil, I wrote about Brazil about a year ago. Um and I I got so many emails from very good readers based in Brazil saying, "I'm so glad you're about Brazil cuz everyone hates it, including everyone here in Brazil. We all hate Brazil and no one owns Brazil." And I'm like, "Oh, music to my ears. Even the locals hate Brazil." And, you know, fast forward now, the market's up 30%. But, uh, I actually think there's more to go. Because, again, like one of, uh, the one of my smart Brazilian readers, he actually did point this to me. He said, "Look, when it goes, it doesn't go up 2030. It goes up 100." So, with the knowledge of my subscribers, I'm building up on that and just expanding, saying, "Look, we're up 30, but this thing can actually do way more." Um, for a very simple reason here, here's a setup. Number one, rates. I I'll start with the macro. So, the macro is quite simple. So, rates in Brazil are like 15%. So they're like the highest rates in the emerging to developing world, you know, like to to a serious country. Let's put it this way. Um their inflation is like between three and five. So if you compare to the US, which has like inflation of three and rates at four, you're like, "Oh shit." Okay. So Brazil has like real rates of like 10 versus the US have has real rates of like one one and a half. So that's one. So rates can only come down. That's that's number one. This is very important because all the money um and again I got this feedback from my Brazilian readers. The Brazilian uh fund industry got decimated because with rates at 15 all the pension funds and asset allocators took the money out of equities and just parked it in Brazilian government paper. That's why no one owns Brazilian equities. It's really simple. It's like those things we were taught we were taught in school which which is called like crowding out. You know when the public sector crowds out the private sector which they thought was going to happen in the US. Well, it's happened in Brazil where all the money comes out and goes into paper that pays them 15%. Because why would you own equities that don't go up 15% a year? Uh, sorry. Risk-free, by the way. So, that's that's the macro setup. That's number one. Number two is the market is actually really cheap. We're still way below the COVID uh um we're like we just bounced off like the COVID lows. So, the market is actually quite cheap and we're like, you know, it's trading at like 10 times P or something. I forgot what the last time the last P number is, but it's like if if it's not 10, it's 11 or 12. So like we're talking about like really low P multiples cash flowing. Um going back to the real asset it's actually like a real asset economy in the sense you see the companies they have it's uh valley real assets petroast real assets they have the banks which are actually like really wellrun you know they have the commodities so uh have a lot of a so their Brazilian rii is backed by um agriculture as well. So it fits in the real world, you know, real asset category owning Brazil versus like a Ponzi market. Let's put it this way. Um, so that's that on the valuation. And then lastly, uh, sorry. So that's two. Three, the currency itself has, you know, it's it was at the weakest level it's ever been. So I believe, you know, I believe in like a dollar bare market. So obviously the Brazilian rii would be a major beneficiary from a dollar bare market especially if um rates now are coming down in the US. So that's you have so you have the kicker from the currency and then lastly and more importantly the the whole market has been capped by Lula. Um and Lula has been pretty bad. I mean he's been acting like a socialist which he is. uh but more uh uh more to the left side. So he's alienated the business people and he's al you know he's been pretty bad for the economy as well just uh giving handouts to the poor screwing the the business class um and the entrepreneurs. So so so people were put off from investing in Brazil because of Lula and that was like the biggest push back I got. And then now we have a very important catalyst. We have elections in October 2026. So, we have a chance for a change. And with all these good things that I just told you, we now have a catalyst. And uh the biggest push back I was getting was when I laid out the thesis was, um, but the catalyst is like too far away. To which I was replying, well, do you want to buy it when it's cheap or do you want to buy when it's expensive? Because once you get close to the catalyst, every monkey is going to be buying Brazil. So, you know, fast forward like uh 8 n months later, market's up 30%. The catalyst is getting closer and there's still way more to it. If the catalyst gets actually like if Lula gets out, I think the market's gonna just keep going because you have like you have a I'm not going to say melee type potential, but you have a right-wing pro business candidate that could have like an Argentina 10 in terms of size uh catalyst and at the same time no one knows the market. So, I I just I I still love the setup. I think like, you know, when people ask me for like lazy trades, like I always get like asked uh you know, what would you buy? What would you sell everything? I'm like, dude, the last thing I'm going to sell is Brazil. Like, I have just no interest in selling Brazil. I don't care what you think about the outlook in the world. Like, if you think this S&P is going to crash 50%, I don't care. Like, just buy put on the S&P and I'm g just going to keep Brazil because it's there. I mean, it's it's obvious like, you know, I don't want to sell cheap stuff and uh especially when there's like a clean catalyst and a long story uh ahead of it. >> Why why why buy the index rather than um like specific specific names within there? >> Because uh I'll tell you why. There's a there's a few reasons. One, I can go big on the index um without overthinking it. um it reduces the risk of messing it up. So when the and then it's like I tell you do you want to buy the S&P on 12 times P or do you want to buy you know Microsoft on 20 times earnings and you know Exxon at 10 and you're going to be like well probably should just buy the S&P and not overthink about it kind of thing. I don't know. I mean, weird example, but you know, you can get toy things. Uh, you know, you can get smaller companies or you can buy Vallet, to be honest. I mean, Vallet is super cheap. >> Super cheap. >> But, yeah, it's super cheap. So, but I was just thinking, you know what, I'll just buy the EWZ ETF. Um, I'll supercharge it with calls on top because that, you know, because the the index allows you to buy calls cheaply. So, that's what I did. I just went like index good size calls on top good size. So that gives me like a pretty good leverage and I just you know keep it simple shrub kiss again. Um I know I should be building like a complicated basket but I'm like you know what I'm going to end up with the index because you know you're going to end up with like valet is 10% petro 10% it 10%. So you're like oh you know what just keep it simple just buy the index in size just be done with it. What about all the, you know, drama of Bolsinado and everything in the the last kind of week or two? Does it give you any sort of pause? >> Yeah, it's actually pretty good, I think, because uh so Bolsaro got sentenced. Um well, they're going to appeal that. But in reality, the the threat to the bull case for me was actually Balssonaro running for president against Lula. Because if there's one person that would lose against Lula, like I think a pet rock, you know, a shrub would probably win against Lula at this point. Um, but the only person that could lose from Lula would be Bolsaro. Um, because Bolsaro has like a check, you know, he's got a checkered history. Some people don't actually like him for a good reason. So, I think it's good that they go after him and uh and just prevent him from running because that means we're going to get a different candidate and that different candidate would probably be like Ticho who's the the mayor of S. Paulo uh was a really good guy. So I think it's actually a positive catalyst not to have Bolsonaro like you know once they confirm Bolsonaro not running I think it's pretty good catalyst for us because it just removes the one guy that would lose against that could lose against Lula. >> The way you describe the um the allocation towards Brazil. I do wonder why you've got maybe a different approach with with platinum, right? Like and this is a a kind of a question we've we've contested with ourselves like we know we we've been um you know picking up exposure to to PGM like the PGM trade for a period of time and it's like what's the best approach? Is it to to to buy a basket where you effectively can't stuff up? Um it's hard it's hard to be right about the trade and then you know wrong about your outcome. Um >> or just by physical cuz you're so scared of South Africa >> by physical and in the case in your case you know you're you're you know you got a very buoyant outlook on platinum or have and and you've you've uh expressed the latest innings of that trade why why specifically rather than than finding a >> I mean I I yeah I kind of like I paperhanded my trade. And I have to admit like it's one of the things I'm annoyed about. Um because I was uh so I got in Valera good a good level so I made money on it. Great. So I was waiting for the the the de merger of Anglo. So I was just thinking of Altera as like a event trade. Um because Anglo likes to sell cheap, right? That's what Anglo does. So when Anglo sold, they just sold it at the lows and the thing went up like 10 times. I'm like, you know what? when Anglo sells, Voltera is probably going to be the low in PGMs. So, you know, they gave us a really good entry on Valtera, so that was great. Um, and then, you know, had a run, had a good run, sold it. Um, I was expecting their placing to come out at a discount, which it did, but they kind of ramped it ramped it uh after the discount. But, you know, my thinking was it's a it's a well-run company. um it's cheaper than the rest. It's the biggest producer. So, you know, just again keep it simple and do that. But in reality, I'll tell you what the right strategy is. I've thought about it a lot and I think the right strategy is actually buy physical and just keep it and probably buy bars. I mean, the pro the problem with bars is that you have to pay like VAT around them. So, that's that's a problem. Otherwise, >> we've looked at that >> cuz Yeah. I have you looked at it. Yeah. So, same thing in Australia, right? >> Same same down here. It's a shocker. It's 10% either side. Yeah. >> Yeah. It was even more here. It was I think it was like 15 plus. So, you pay full VAT on it, which is kind of stupid because if there's one thing you want to buy physical right now, I think it's actually platinum. Um, and the other good thing about physical, like when you buy physical, you don't think about it. You don't see the mark tomarket. You just say, you know what, it's mine. It's like a house. and that's it. So I think you know the problem with these PGM equities and by the way I've I've invested in them over since 2008. I remember Lawnman for example, you know, I don't know if you remember companies like that. >> I mean these were really shitty companies like really bad and I mean even from the listed ones like I you know SBSW you know we made money out of it but >> it's a tough you know these are tough stocks. Um and Voltera was good because it didn't have debt. Impala is good because it doesn't have debt. But you know ultimately making the numbers for these companies is quite difficult because of all the byproducts like let's put this way you might get the price of platinum right but you might get the price of paladium wrong and roodium might collapse. So you're expecting them to make money but they actually lost money. So they're not like as clean as a gold company for example where you know there the price of gold and that's it that's your margin. And then you have the South Africa risk which just makes everything more complicated. So if you if you just look at the supply supply and demand of of platinum, supply is crap. I mean no one's producing more more platinum and the supply is coming now out of recycled material and like you know inventories and stuff like that which you know can easily go the other way. Um, so that's that and then the demand side is actually being quite okay. So if you want to just hedge geopolitically and just hedge the whole supply side remaining crap, which it will, I think you just buy physical platinum and forget about it. Like you know, become like the gold bugs. Like if the gold bugs are storing gold bars, why shouldn't you as a platinum bug store some platinum bars? I mean, I I would love to hear someone, you know, come up with like a tax efficient way of doing it, but I guess like the ETF is probably the the easiest way at the end of the day. I mean, I was doing it with futures, but probably ETF is better um to just avoid the roles and be done with it. >> Yeah, I I I think so. You mentioned palladium there as well. How do you sort of think think about palladium? >> I mean, see, palladium is a is a tough one. Like I I I never liked palladium but again it's a burden of history because you know I remember palladium used to be at like 300 bucks because automotive companies were using platinum for catalytic converters and then the platinum became so expensive they just switched to palladium um which pushed up the price of palladium from 300 to like 2,000 and it became more expensive than platinum but they never switched back to p to platinum. because there's actually way more supply of palladium. Um, and this is one metal that actually Russia is a big producer of. So, having said that, the Norrisk mines of uh the Nork mines that produce palladium are really crap. Like they really just haven't invested anything there for the last few decades. So, basically like the you know the Russians that don't like to invest. they just like to take as you guys know. Um so they've been just draining the money, getting it out of Russia, putting it in uh you know the south of France in villas instead of uh reinvesting uh reinvesting in their mind. So I I actually think those palladium mines are not going to be as good as people think. But, you know, that said, I'm more of a I'm a platinum maxi versus caring too much about palladium because I, you know, I see platinum as a precious metal and I see palladium as an industrial metal. So, if I'm going to store some like, okay, the simple example I get is like you go to your wife or girlfriend and you just say, "I bought you this beautiful palladium ring." She's going to just slap you. Like what? Palladium ring? Like you're only going to give like a platinum ring to someone. You're not going to give like a palladium ring. I mean, was it what is that? >> So, >> are you actually going to give a platinum ring? Is that a thing? >> Of course. I I gave my wife a platinum ring. >> Did you? >> I I think in the sort of, you know, the public consciousness like the tiers, you know, you have bronze, silver, >> gold, platinum, you have a platinum cut, all all these things. Platinum's at the top. >> Yeah. Platinum's at the top. >> Yeah. But it's always actually a digital embodiment rather than a physical embodiment. >> So it was actually funny funny factoid but um the platinum association partnered with the beers back in the 2000s um to make a marketing campaign in China that if you want to get engaged you should be offering a platinum ring with a diamond on top. So it became like you know the top uh sorry the aspirational goal for a proposal in China would be like a platinum ring with a diamond on top thanks to the beers campaign with the platinum association in China. >> Get a get a lab grown diamond these days just plonged on top. >> Yeah, exactly. >> Oh that's a big discussion by itself actually. Before we jump into that one though, how do you think because you're a sort of trader by mentality sort of shrub. How do you think about these ratios? You you you've obviously mentioned there you think of platinum as a precious. >> We hear a lot of people, you know, if we go back to what you referenced there 2008 sort of time frame. The ratio of platinum to to gold completely different. Do you do you pay much attention to that? >> Yeah, of course. Um I lost a lot of money doing that. So that's thank good for bringing it up. Um, so when I first invested in platinum, it was like 2 to1 to gold. Like the first time I did analysis on platinum. Then at some point I actually remember buying platinum at a 30% discount to gold and I got stopped out like 5% lower or something. It went from like 70 a 30% discount to like 35 and I think I stopped it out like ages. I'm talking about like 10 years plus and then I thought it in a different way which was more helpful and that was about a year ago when I went big in platinum. Platinum was trading at like 950 or something. It would trade like the 900s. Platinum was in the 900s and gold was breaking out in the 2000s but it was breaking out like two and a half thousand or something. And I thought about it differently at that point and that's what really helped me. I was like look platinum is trading at 30 35 cents on the dollar to gold. I don't need to short gold. I just need to buy platinum because you know I'm seeing there's a bull case for gold. It's obvious like the trend is there. The thesis is there. The macro is there. So I might as well just buy the precious metal that's trading at like 30 cents on the dollar. you know just see that as a floor. So I think the ratio basically what I'm trying to say is the ratio is a very is very helpful to just guide you for the investment decision versus you should never ever trade the ratio itself. Just don't trade the ratio. It's stupid. Like just don't do it. Like anyone hearing this don't trade ratios of commodities. Inherently stupid. >> Leave that to other people. >> Yeah. Just keep it simple. I think I should I think it should be a marker. I think it should be a guideline that basically like when you buy platinum at 30 cents on the dollar to gold, it's a good investment and you should just buy it. Simple as that. And you can make the same argument, by the way, with oil versus gold, copper versus gold. Like these things are very good markers to just see where, you know, where the lows are. Actually, I would love to see where the oil versus gold is right now. It's probably like at the lowest or something. >> Yeah. Yeah, that one's that one's super out of whack. Speaking of gold as well, no Noble is one of the the names in in that sort of portfolio you've got and that whole offshore services, you know, bitaris Noble, all these guys, they're they're really interesting and they're super unloved at the moment. So, curious to hear you sort of riff on on why you hold a small sort of position in that. Yeah, it's kind of like it's one of those things like I felt like it bottomed out like I owned it from higher and then I felt it bottomed out in the 20s so I had to buy more then it went up to trim but I kept that position because it's it's it's a it's part of the real asset portfolio. Like there aren't that many rigs. The the number of rigs around the world are still the same. So it's again a supply side issue. Like the supply of rigs is still there. Uh the rates are kind of okay. they're making good money. So, you're kind of getting like a levered play on the oil price if the oil price actually ever goes up again. But at the same time, the offshore, sorry, the offshore break evens are pretty low right now. So, in the 30s. So, I think the offshore industry is going to be okay regardless. So, that's kind of why I like the offshore oil services versus anything else. Like, I don't touch I don't touch shale or anything like that. But on the offshore side, if you think about it, if your break evens are 30, you have a pretty big margin of safety for all these projects to get done. Um, versus shale, that's number one. And number two is well, you only have x number of rigs. Um, so that's supportive for the rates uh itself. And you know, like you remember like two years ago, everyone loved these uh offshore drillers like it was like the best thing since sliced bread. And now no one talks about them. while they're still they're kind of like boomers like you know Noble pays like a six to eight% dividend just chugging along. So kind of hate to say it but it kind of like paid to wait until there's like a one of those things right >> just boring boring stuff 6 to8% just hang >> yeah nowadays like 6 to8% is like what a Ponzi does on a daily basis but it is what it is. >> Yeah. Yeah. Absolutely. Ponzies. The rolling ponzi thesis that uh you >> the rolling ponzi thesis >> you popularized when we well >> I mean dude the rolling ponzi thesis I gota I mean I'll say it now on air. I was going to write a piece on it but it's it's an interesting one. So so I came up with the rolling ponzi thesis like a year ago. Um it was before an Nvidia quantum conference. So I was like I said I'm going to write a thesis that's so stupid. I said like this is stupid, but it's so stupid it might work. So there was an Nvidia quantum conference like a few weeks later. So Nvidia was going to present about quantum computers and all that crap. So I was like, well, why don't we just buy calls on all these quantum computing stocks like O andQ and some other smaller crap and uh you know just buy calls into the conference and you know those calls ended up going up like four or five times and you know the small one the small stocks uh you know IOQ doubled so the call went up like five times or something and then the small the small uh quantum stocks went up like 2 3x into the conference and I'm like oh there you go the rolling ponzi thesis has been confirmed like people just love to buy the ponzies and they just uh run into them and I you know I did the same with the uh smrs so like oklo and oklo and here's the interesting part I thought those quantum stocks would actually deflate afterwards which they did but then they took another life of their own so I in Q I think I sold it like when It was like six billion company. Like it was a six billion company, dude. Like it was still like it's still insane for something that makes no no money, right? So I checked yesterday and it it's a 22 billion company. So it went up 3x and then I checked these smaller ones that you know I made like 2 3x my money on that. They went up another 10 times. And I was like, "Oh my god, these quantum like this quantum ponzies and all these SMR ponzies and all these things like there they were rolling ponzies for the first few months. like you know they went up then they went down but then they got a life of their own and they just it just became like they gained critical mass to the point where now they're like IQ 20 billion QBTS 8 billion Rietti 8 billion so you know put them together you're talking about like 36 billion worth of market cap in three companies that produce no revenues and I'm like dude 36 billion is pretty much like the whole critical metals industry Don't say it. >> I know. I know. >> That is wild. >> Yeah. I mean, you chucked in the line. >> You chucked in the line in one of them. Valuation doesn't matter. You wrote it somewhere in one of your >> Oh, it doesn't matter. Yeah. Valuation doesn't matter. It doesn't matter. Like, and and that's coming from someone who grew up like as an investment banker, you know, as a fundamental analyst using spreadsheets and, you know, trading it based on multiples and that stuff. One thing I have concluded that thankfully you know thankfully uh few years ago valuation does not matter and you know these quantum stocks is actually quite an example. It's all about getting the thematic right um and just the momentum behind it but of course you know people that actually just people that whose investments thesis depends on that they they end up getting killed by the way just so we're clear. So, for example, you know, these companies could easily end up at zero right down the line. But on the way there, they could be up 10x. And that's why I'm actually really against shorting the these companies. Like I I tell people like don't even think about shorting these companies. Like you either you either long them or you just pretend they don't exist. >> I valuation doesn't matter until it it does though, right? >> Yeah. It doesn't matter until it does >> and then it's the only thing that matters. And I mean I actually the reason I say that is because you know the the two short positions you have right now. >> Yeah. >> I'm sure valuation is kind of part of that. Nvidia and Tesla. >> Oh 100%. Yeah. So that's quite funny. Like I never short single names. Um I used to I was actually quite a don't want to brag but I I thought I was a pretty good short seller. Um and um the reason why I have a pretty high hit rate with shorts is because I I never short. So >> yeah. So, obviously I'm going to have a high hit rate because I don't really do it. So, >> but you know, I kind of like I put two shorts on single names. Um um I'll say I I'll I'll say them out loud because it's just funny by itself, but um and and by the way, just caveat, this is all parody. Um not investment advice, and you'd be stupid to be shorting stuff anyway. Um, so I'm short like Nvidia and Tesla and I see them as like funding shorts in the sense I I don't have anything against them per se, but I just like to find these, you know, Nvidia's 5 trillion and Tesla is like one and a half trillion. So if I'm going to hedge my portfolio with something, just rather do it like and I have a lot of midcaps that are doing pretty well right now. Um, I might as well just hedge my portfolio with things that I think are like maxed out. Um, because if the market turns I mean Nvidia has a whole uh, you know, I think the Nvidia bookcase is like maxed out like maxed out. The only people left uh to buy GPUs are like the Martians or something. Um, so so you can just bet against that. And then Tesla Tesla has like a whole story by itself with uh EV competition from everything else. Like you know even here in Europe I see more BYDs getting sold in Teslas for example. So and but I'm I'm like I'm like super opportunistic with shorts. Like you know if they go up 5% I'm going to just get stopped out so I don't really care. Um but yeah my my shorts are very tactical very few. I hate doing it. Like sometimes I even wonder why, but you know, I'm kind of writing my tra trading diary, trading diary. So that's why I share them. But I just wonder sometimes like, oh man, I'm going to write down that I shorted something. I'm going to get like 10 hate mails. I'm going to get like people telling me I'm an idiot, which is fine. It's okay. I'm a shrub, right? So um >> from your sort of journey, you know, you've spoken about the the GFC in that point in time to where we are today. When did valuations start to not matter? I think the big turning point was uh co I mean there was always like a switch out of valu sorry whenever sorry when they started talking about like factors when people started trading factors that was a big change because once you start trading factors valuation is not like there is a valuation factor and there is a growth factor and then when you start putting like AI factor thematic factor when then you start diluting valuation by itself valuation becomes a smaller part. But I think the real catalyst was probably co because during co that's when we had like the retail army really pick up people staying home and trading and you know when people you know there's an army of traders that doesn't use valuation. Um so that's when it got even more diluted and becomes became self-reinforcing because the algos are picking up um the algos are picking up the retail flow and the retail flow is trading on the back of alos becomes reinforcing. It's like a circle jerk in reality and then they just run up these things to the moon and valuation just uh loses control. I mean, you know, classic, let me I'll give you a few classic cases like Tesla lost, you know, has hasn't had valuation as a factor in its share price ever. So, that's number one. Number two is like uh MSTR, so Micro Strategy um trading at a premium to its Bitcoin of like two 300%. Why? There's no reason behind it. It's like the algos and the retail just took at that point. It became self-reinforcing and it became a new reality. It's like the matrix. Like things just become a reality. We we create our own reality. It's about like let's put it this way and this is a dangerous thing about Chad GBT. Like it's like training Chad GBT using Reddit. Like Reddit is just a bunch of monkeys writing nonsense, right? So if you train CHBT on the back of nonsense, well, it's going to output you nonsense. So it's the same thing with the algos. Like the algos are training on the back of nonsense. So they output nonsense. So all these things is just create like a you know they create a reinforcing mechanism whereby valuation gets diluted. And by the way the biggest idiots are the ones that are using uh at the sell side the biggest idiots are actually the sell side which work um work backwards from the share price to get their price target. So for example you know Tesla is running say they run up Tesla to like 400 on the back of this mechanism. I I said this self-reinforcing mechanism, the retail guy chasing it is actually smart. He's making money. The algo chasing it is not smart, but it's doing its job. But then the sellside analyst is going to come out and say, "Oo, the $400 share price is justified if you look at a 2040 TAM of $5 trillion." And if you work backwards, it's trading on a 10 times P on a 2050 basis. So that guy is the idiot. Okay, just to just to be clear because that guy is gonna justify the stupidity based on fundamentals when there's no fundamentals involved. Sorry for the rant, but that's kind of like we have to call out the idiots here and that's the sales side. >> I I I love the rant. How do you how do you piece in passive flows into that? Because they've just been massive the last couple decades and just accelerating. >> Yeah, look, the the passive flows are a um feature of the system and you can't fight against it. That's why um that's why you know when you do shorts or when you look at the index you have to be tactical about it like the whole thing is like a Ponzi scheme which is fine you know you don't really want to bet against Ponzi schemes. Um but you know it's just more money coming into the system and that money uh benefits the big stocks that are part of the index and that's why again it feeds in this whole reinforcing mechanism like Tesla's in the indexes it will benefit from the index and vidas in the system in the index it will benefit from the index. Having said that, as a fundamental or tactical trader, you probably will make more money um finding the stocks outside the index or coming in and out of the index or whatever versus just playing the passive game. I mean, I'm talking about making real money versus just a passive investment. But, you know, this this passive thing also creates a lot of distortions. And this is where, you know, it gets quite exciting. Like one of my best trades was actually um shorting SMCI when it entered the S the S&P like uh last year. Um because they just ran it into like an overvalued level and it was was a crappy company. Like people were just gloating that it's like an Nvidia type play. It was a crappy company that had issues afterwards. like but you know the overvaluation of SMCI when it came into the index presented like a great short opportunity. I think it was like one of the very very few shorts that I did all of last year. Um so you know I I don't like to bet against passive. I mean I'm actually going along with passive like happily going along and you know giving thanks as we float away into uh to the moon. But it does give opportunities. It's um I don't want to look you know I don't want to uh be ungrateful for the opportunities that the passive system gives. And by the way, like I I was having this discussion with someone uh last week. He said um I have decided to stop trading altogether and I will be allocating only in passive because it worked over the last 10 years and it's going to keep working for the next 10 years. And I was telling him, "So after all the discussions we've had all these years, that's the conclusion you came up with." And he was like, "Yeah." I said, "Okay, great. Well, let's not talk about investing again together." Because it was like, "Okay, you just completely missed the whole point." But anyway, whatever. So, you know, I'm not against passive, >> but I just think there's a lot of ways to skin the cat, and I think there's a lot of ways to complement a portfolio. Like, you look at Brazil versus the S&P this year. You look at you look at platinum versus Bitcoin this year, we're talking about like 20% outperformance on both. Actually, probably more uh on things that no one talks about. And by the way, the thing with uh the one thing we didn't talk about, you know, this this guy that was telling me about passive, I told him like, "You know what your net return was uh this year?" He says, "Oh yeah, 10%." It's like, "No, it wasn't 10%. You made 10% on the S&P and you lost 10% on the dollar, dude. You're flat. You kind of just like ran to stay, you know, to break even." So if you didn't have the European diversification then uh then you lost out. You actually are poorer this year. Like if you were just in the S&P this year, you were poor. That's why you just have to be smart in your passive allocation. You know, if you are in passive allocation, you have to be smart about it. You can't be like the classic Bridgewater model of like 6040. You can't you can't do that. You have to be like equities plus bonds if you must. Like I hate bonds, but you know if you must um plus commodities or something, you know, something back to the barbell approach, something that will have like a barbell that will save your butt if the currency debasment plays along, which it is playing along like like I said like it's you know this year the S&P return is zero in effect like on a dollar adjusted basis but everyone's just cheering about it, right? So so people don't even think about it. That's how that's how um brainwashed they are that they don't even think that this year they broke even. They just broke even. And this is going to have implications because um I don't think people are ready for it. I have to admit the golden age of grift man. The golden age of grift it just brainwashes people, makes them dumber. People forgot their maths, you know. No one does maths anymore. Um, like you said, valuation matters eventually. Uh, but common sense matters the most. >> You balance cynicism with optimism. You laugh at the grift, the shrub, but you still play the game. How do you keep from just being consumed by the absurdity? >> Uh, because our uh our guiding light and our beacon is our moto. Once you realize it's all nonsense, it starts to make sense. >> That's fantastic. I think that's a a perfect spot to leave the conversation. Lashbub, it's been a pleasure. Loved having you back on. Everyone should check out your Substack. Just search Lashub and we'll chuck it in the show notes as well. >> Shrubstack. >> Rub stack. Thanks a bunch for joining us. Always great to chat. >> Thank you so much. It was great having you guys. Who would have thought that a talking shrub could be so insightful, >> so knowledgeable and so great to chat with? And it is all made possible thanks to our fantastic partners mate Sanvic Ground Support Focus, the platform by Market Tech and IMAK. Get your tickets for the conference in late October. >> U money minus >> udaroo. Now remember, I'm an idiot. JD is an idiot. If you thought any of this was anything other than entertainment, you're an idiot and you need to read out a disclaimer.
Shrub Unplugged: Gold, Grift & Debasement
Summary
Transcript
beginning of 25. I said, "2025 is the golden age of grift." And when I said that, I had some friends over. Some friends were telling me, "I thought when you said it, you were exaggerating, but now I think you were being a bit too conservative. It's so much worse. >> Good morning. >> How are you, Jens? >> Good afternoon for for us. Good morning to you. >> We are We are going well, mate. Appreciate you jumping on at such short notice, mate. Excited to >> I missed you guys. I I I've been feeling like we had to do this. It's been a while. >> Yeah. Yeah. How's things on your end, mate? How's life been? >> Fantastic. It's been fantastic. >> And you know what? I'm actually loving that we're doing this. Uh I'll mention the call anyway. >> But we always do this at a turning point. So, I'm just glad we're doing it now. >> What was that? What was our turning point last time? >> It was, >> dude. Last time we were basically I was invited during like a really bad moment in miners where everyone was depressed and I was like I was telling you guys I spoke to everyone in mining and they were all so depressed that I just went out and I bought like Glen Core Angla and all that >> Yes. >> And then a few days later the Chinese came out with like a stimulus plan. >> I remember that. I also remember there was like >> and I was like and I told you by the way at the time I was like I'm so glad we're doing this because everyone is so depressed in mining. I think it's a good time to be buying buying all these things. >> Yes, >> we we um what was what was the I think and I feel like you were toying around with buying SPSW puts sorry coals as well and um and Calvin was um Calvin was like projecting that that you know the end of the world was happening for SPSW but meanwhile he was loading up he was loading up on coals as well. He nailed it by the way. I think he I think he manifested a bottom. Yeah, I was buying platinum as well. So I was like bullish platinum bullish miners buying all those things. L shrub. It's an age of debasement because grift brings debasement. Simple as that. It is kind of simple when you say it like that. >> Keep it simple. Shrub kiss. >> You never cease to make us laugh and reflect on I I I think just like the state of the macro world in such like a simple but funny way. I thought that that that one sentence, that phrase is just um it's perfect. Of course. Of course. Grift brings to basement. Like it's so simple when you when you think about it. Of course, >> throughout the ages, throughout the millennia, that's the way it was. And you know, we we live in the golden age of grift. It's quite funny like when I coined the phrase, you know, I said like 2024, in 2024, I said that's going to be the year of Tamagotchi Yelen because, you know, Yellen just drove the whole market. And then in beginning of 25, I said 2025 is the golden age of grift. And uh when I said that, I had some friends over. Um some friends were telling me, I thought when you said it, you were exaggerating, but now I think you were being a bit too conservative. It's so much worse. So So you know, fast forward like eight months later, it is so much worse. And um I think that's where a lot of people got blindsided that, you know, we are characterized by grift. And like you said, currency debasement is an obvious feature of the golden age of grift. Like this is what happened during the Roman times when you know they were chopping off bits from the silver coins uh you know to uh well that was a element of grift right and that was the first case of currency debasement and this is where we are like currency debasement just suits everyone and is it's a key feature. Um, and you know, a lot of people are going to be trying to be contrarian and say that's not going to keep going, but man, it is a feature. It's very very tough to bet against it. Um, it's it it's a uh it's a pretty longdated feature what what you're talking about there, but it's also not right. Like what we're talking about is, you know, in the space of eight months, it's so noticeable. So, how do you how do you think about it sort of playing out in in time scales? Yeah, look I I think in this one case bear in mind like I've lived through debasement because I grew up in uh Cyprus and uh you know Greece. So back before the you know before the euro so I remember vividly when things would cost like uh 300 dramas and a few years later they would be costing like a thousand dramas. But you know those places were more emerging market. So you know there were consequences that were felt immediately like you know we had a socialist government for a long time and then that got replaced by a right-wing government to fix things and then that brought the euro so it brought some stability there which by the way the euro brought deflation by itself and with the consequences of the of Brexit and the European crisis. But in this case, it's actually way worse in in in what way? The US is the reserve currency. So, like you said, it's a it's a long it's a longer time frame that we're playing for and even there we felt it noticeably in one year. But because it's a reserve currency, they can get away with a lot of things in the meantime. And they can also be arrogant enough not to halt it. And I think that's the key thing that is missed by quite a few is that you know if if the administration believes in American exceptionalism like the previous one by the way because let's not you know I'm I'm I'm an equal opportunity. You know I just make a parody of this of both administrations just so we're clear. Um, I think the previous guys were actually worse than the current guys because they were covert about it and you know they were just printing to get reelected and now the current guys are kind of like they they actually tried not to print and for a few brief moments in time, you know, Main Street was winning against Wall Street for like six days when they said, "Oh, we we actually have to, you know, re in on the US debt. We have to re in this currency debasement." But it lasted about 6 days and then they just gave up and said, "Well, actually can't really do that. We're going to have to run it hot, which is effectively like currency debasement." So, so how this plays out, it's just going to keep going until something breaks. And I don't know what breaks. I don't know if it's going to be the bond market that that uh shakes them or if it's going to be the currency. I mean, look, the currency has been in a steady. I've been a dollar bear for like the last year since the inauguration and um and uh now it feels like very consensus. I know it. Um and I wouldn't be surprised if the dollar actually just stays here. But you know, I think it's I think the next phase is a global debasement. So not just not the dollar going to like 140 with the euro. It's just kind of like everything getting debased. Um and I think that's going to be a feature again of the next uh like you said it's going to be like a long feature uh of the situation because you know there's so many macro elements to it. There is a reshoring there is a u you know creating new alliances. There's still like um supply disruption. So all these things are like require money to be spent. There's no way about it. So you look forward in the future, are we going to have like a new Thatcher? Are we going to have like a new uh Vulker? I mean, let's just reflect on the last meeting, you know, the last Fed meeting. We didn't have a Vulker. We had uh, you know, one uh guy desenting for 50 bips, which was Steve Miran. Um and then we had everyone else uh you know pretending that they did an insurance cut but actually you know they all want to cut more in reality. Um so we're it's you know this thing about the the Fed being hawkish or doubbish. Now the Fed is rarely hawkish. I mean, they were hawkish in 2022 after they blew up, but you know, they're they're kind of like in a very strange situation now where they're pretending um that they have things under control, but they they've lost control in reality from before. And uh that's that's a whole new discussion that I'm bringing up to be honest, but it's it's quite important because, you know, if the Fed is the one that's supposed to uh to be reigning in on things, I kind of I kind of think, you know, they lost the plot from COVID times to be honest. And this is where we are like, you know, you ask the average person if they were better off. I mean, you know, the your grocery bills are higher. They're not coming down. And you know, the Fed is partly partly to blame. So, we're really going to be trusting these people to solve things. No, I don't think so. Gold is telling you that as well, by the way. So, >> totally. you you've got such a a light-hearted way of of putting it all and you know sort of calling out the stuff like Zuckerberg and the hot mic in in the meeting there and and pal and and Trump you know quabbling over over the bill and these sorts of things but they're they're pretty sort of serious challenges all the same is your framing just to to kind of get long real assets and and you know partake a bit on the side with with gag with the the golden age and these sorts of things like how do you think about it all? >> Yeah. So I have a very very simple view that I'm trying to get people's minds around because it's something that if you don't understand you're going to blow up. So, you know, I'm I for my sins, I'm a boomer and I've lived through 200, you know, 2008 crisis, lived through 2000. Uh, but 2009, 2008 was very memorable to me and um, you know, I was lucky enough to be working for one of the guys from the big short who was a genius and, you know, nailed the trade and, you know, we made a lot of money during the crash. But, you know, the mentality of a lot of people from my generation is that they always expect a crash. And they always expect like a deflationary crash whereby equities are going to crash, bonds are going to rally, we're going to have like a price discovery in assets. They're going to buy things like 20 cents on the dollar and they're going to make money on the recovery. But that's because you know my same boss at the time who I again I say he was a genius. He said something very smart at that time. He said every crisis is different. So the new crisis cannot be like the old crisis. So the new crisis cannot be like 2008. So what I'm trying to get people to understand through my writings and my memes and you know usually they get it after the memes. Maybe they don't read the writings but they read the memes they get the memes is when you're in a golden age of grift with a currency debasement focus you should be thinking not about 2008 crash. You should be thinking that at the end of the day your currency is going to be worthless. So you you have like the left tail and you have the right tail. You have to be thinking about different scenario. So you could like there is a small chance you get an there is a small chance you get like a 2008 sorry 2000 crash because of an AI capex bubble but there's also a chance that you get like a Zimbabwe Argentina stock market whereby you just debase your currency and you have to be in real assets. So the way I approach my portfolio construction is this. I tell people in the golden age of grift you need to have real assets. You have to have a barbell approach. So you need to have on one barbell. You need to have the real assets that you guys talk about all the time. All the all the stocks and commodities that you guys talk about, it's that barb bill. Plus emerging markets, by the way, because emerging markets like Brazil, for example, they're going to be massive beneficiaries of debasement. Um, so that's one barbell. On the other bar, you can just put whatever you want. You can put like, you know, can put like growth assets or, you know, you can put your golden age of grift trades that I put on um I have a lot of uh and uh you know, you can just play around with the with the simple thought that if there is a debasement, you're going to have something left. If there's a crash, you're going to have something left. because you know everyone comes out and you know they have a very strong view about oh the market is gonna keep going or the market's going to crash. It's like guys I'm really not that smart for that So basically I just want to like I'm managing my own money. I just want to at the end of the day I want to make money and I want to survive and I want to have capital left over under all circumstances because that's what I do for a living. So I think the only sensible approach is a barbell approach. Um and within that barbell approach the other way to think about it is um when things are getting stretched like now which I think we're a very interesting turning point and we can talk about that later you know if you spend like a little bit of premium in puts it's like a sacrifice to the market gods. So >> a blood sacrifice >> you know >> it's a blood sacrifice like you look you've had a good run everything is up in your portfolio you know you go to the market goes and you say okay I offer you this blood sacrifice and you know spend like 50 bips in puts and here you go be kind be gentle >> I love I love hearing you you talk about this barbell strategy and of course the appeal of real assets you know um given given the the macro backdrop the golden age of grift is so compelling and you brought up gold earlier but I do note you know in your own portfolio a lack of allocation to gold specifically I know you're long platinum but why like why why like you speak the language of um the gold bulls so we're in a permanent stage of thinking like this by the way but you don't you don't have the allocation of the gold bulls >> yeah because I have the burden of knowledge unfortunately um and that's why I messed I messed up the trade. Like I did really well with platinum this year. It was like up up 50% on it. Um and I'm still quite bullish on it actually. But on the gold side, it's always about, you know, the history of your previous trades and what you live through. So the last time I bought gold was 2008 when, you know, I saw my boss just go all in in gold. And I was so afraid about the world that I actually went and I put like a third of my money, like I put a third of all my all my assets actually in uh physical gold. Like I went and bought bars and put them in a safe. And then fast forward like that was at 950. And fast forward like a year or two later, gold was at 1,500. I'm like, "Oh, that's awesome. Okay, fine." So I just went cashed out my bars. I saw gold run up to 1,800 and I felt I'm such an idiot because all my friends and colleagues, they just kept riding it. And then um that thing crashed back to 900. Oh, and by the way, the miners did so badly at that point because, you know, I remember I had a lot of friends who were buying the miners and uh I was like, "Oh, there you go. Gold is like Buffett was right." like gold, you just buy it when you're really afraid of the world and you don't bother again. Um, so I I made good money. Like I mean, look, I was young and I made I put a pretty big bet, so it was good money for me. Um, and I didn't I never bought physical again. And you know, since then, I've been telling myself like, you only really want to buy gold when you want to buy it physical. That's the time you really want to be buying gold. And to be honest, I think we kind of had that moment a year ago or sorry, a few years ago when, you know, the geopolitics changed so much uh maybe actually from Ukraine actually when you're like, you probably want to own physical gold here. And I think that was a turning point that I should have just uh woken up and just done it. Um but you know the way I see it though just to uh give me a give me a break is I kind of just bundle everything together. Like I don't feel I need to own gold but I feel like I need to own real assets. So for example, you know, I bundle these things, you know, I have miners that have done as well. You know, I have other metals that have done as well as gold. So I always make sure I have that allocation and that's something I don't touch. I want to have like the minimum should be like 20%. With all these things cuz I know like this guy Gunda came out and said, "Oh, you should put 25% of your money in gold." It's like dude, thank you so much. Like thank you so much for the uh uh lesson in hindsight and back trading. 25% great. That that's not how I see it. like put 25% in real assets and you'll feel better. You like 5% gold, 5% platinum, 5% copper, 5% whatever something, you know, something in Australia that's safe versus other parts of the world. I think the real asset category should be quite broader. I mean, you know, whenever I bring it up, actually, it's quite funny because like you like you just asked me why don't I own gold? I get crypto guys asking me, "You've given this lecture about real assets. Why don't you own Bitcoin and I'm like because I don't need to. I own other stuff that I like, but that trade the same." In fact, I mean, platinum outperformed Bitcoin by like three times this year, but no one talks about it, right? So, you know, stuff like that. I think there there's always a narrative attached to it as well, right? Right. The Bitcoin guys are just so persuasive. Like the crypto guys are so persuasive and you're like, "Why are you guys trying so hard?" Oh, because you're trying to pump your Okay, I get it. Whereas real asset guys, like, you know, the gold bugs, the platinum bugs, the silver bugs, like you're not really trying to pump anything because it's been there for like 5,000 years. And you know we okay there's the occasional gold conference that they all go you know hold hands and sing kumbaya but you know that's not really what's driving the price of gold. So, you know, my my point is like different people have a different idea about real assets and I actually do, you know, I'm I'm sympathetic to the idea of Bitcoin being a real asset as well nowadays, uh, for the, you know, for digital nomads. And there there's actually like a whole there there's a whole argument why you should include some Bitcoin in the real asset bucket. And I think that argument um goes back to my thinking about uh you know my my my fear in 2008 that I had to go out and buy bars. Like why did I have to go and buy gold bars? I was actually afraid of the banks because I was short all the banks and I'm like oh the banks are going to blow up. I might as well just hold gold bars. So now fast forward to today we don't have the fear of the of the of the banks blowing up but we have the fear of the governments blowing up and we have the fear of actually getting debanked. Um, and what do I mean by that? Like the UK arrests people for tweeting the wrong So, you know, imagine if I tweet out the wrong and the UK comes to me and says, "Oh, I'm going to seize your house in the UK." Uh, well, you can seize my house in the UK, but you're not going to seize my Bitcoin kind of thing. So, there is, I think, that extra element that we have to be thinking now. And that's why, you know, I'm not against some digital asset allocation from a safety perspective, but you know, of course, that just depends on a person um on a personal basis. >> Shrub's got his portfolio of real assets and his whole barbell approach. And if you're thinking about a barbell approach and real assets, well, I know what conference that we're going to in Sydney next month very shortly. There'll be a lot of real assets floating around. >> That's it, mate. October 21st to October 23rd. IMARK in Sydney. Get your tickets. Details in the show notes. If you want to buy real assets, you need to learn about mining companies and commodities. Why not speak with other investors, speak with the companies themselves, speak with the service providers. No better way to get up to speed. >> Why are you pumped to go to IMAK JD? >> Mate, I'm pumped to go to Sydney, your favorite city. I'm pumped to speak with a bunch of people. We've already slotted in some cool interviews we're going to do, mate. There's a lot of reasons to get excited. How about yourself? >> We're keen to see you there, Money Miners. If you're at IMAK joining us, come say good day to us. >> Get your tickets to IMAK today. One of the uh the funniest things you've written this this year was you sort of made made commentary about catching up with a with a doctor in in Cyprus who who brings up a biotech which you know is a is an Ethereum sort of holding unit type thing. And to tie that in with something you said earlier, it seems like we're at some sort of turning point type thing. So yeah, how do how do you think about the the really sort of recent runup in in things like Ethereum and and other kind of speckies out there? >> Yeah. So that was a really funny story because I was you know I was sitting down down with this doctor 75 years old very respected one of the best in his fields and you know he starts talking about the he he starts asking me about the stock market and uh and then I ask him it's like did you um do you buy any biotech cuz I'm actually you know I I love investing in biotech and I was hoping for like this revelation like you know hearing from a specialist about any new inventions or progress in in biotech and he says, "Oh yeah, I just bought this biotech company because they're going to switch to becoming an Ethereum treasury holding company." And I'm like, "Oh my god, this is a 75year-old doctor. He's investing in a bite company because they're going to be buying Ethereum. Okay, this is it. That's kind of done." So I use this little anecdotes as as a as a benchmark of how invested people in people are in these things. Um anecdotally by the way I don't know that many people who are long gold in size. So that's interesting. Like all these boomers like this guy doesn't own gold for example doesn't own miners but he owns a stupid Ethereum treasury company. So I I think this trade is like these treasury companies are fundamentally stupid. Um people are going to I mean the underlying might do okay but there is zero reason for these things to trade at a premium to NAV and I'm just glad we're doing this conversation in money of mine because you guys are familiar with the u spot >> uh ur uran yeah yeah exactly with the uranium trusts. So here you have like the uranium trust and they were trading at a big discount and we're talking about a scarce resource that is actually has a deficit. So imagine uranium is trading at a deficit uh and and the spud is trading at a discount but suddenly you have all these shitcoins getting put in treasury companies and they all expected to trade at a premium so they can share issue more shares to the monkeys so they can buy more of the worthless coins. And we're talking about like a lot of these coins getting circulated. I mean, it's kind of like a stupid thing that is going to correct itself down the line. Um, but it also tells you that we are we are at a turning point and we're seeing some naent signs. It's it's a bit like 2021, remember where everyone was long all the crap and no one was long like the real stuff? Uh and then there was like this big wave that just came and just uh you know gave this massive rotation out of Ponzi into real assets like in this case it's a bit more nuanced because we are in the golden age of grift. Um but it tells you that there is a lot of capital still that is getting allocated and that capital you know hopefully it ends up in some some of the stuff we own right. Um I mean we already had some very interesting uh developments in Kumaris this year with you know I mean the the most interesting development for me was uh when the US government pretty much backs stopped uh MP materials right so from that point you created like a completely different theme in commodities. I mean, as someone else smarter than me than me framed it, he said, "In the past, we used to invest in commodities that the Chinese were short of, and now we're we should be investing in commodities that the US is short of." That's actually like a really insightful comment that you can just create a whole portfolio out of this. So, you basically the moment that the US is panicking about their own shortfalls, well, you should be looking at projects in the US that that address those shortfalls. and you know that could benefit from um uh from any backs stop uh from the government like this is actually one thing this is one of the of the u bene sorry this is one of the good things of the golden age of grift that the US government is doing the right thing in this point and this is something that they should keep going and this is something that they should be spending money on because this is addressing a major imbalance that's been building on over the last like 20 30 Right. I mean, classic example, you know, all these, you know, the tungsten mines that they closed 30 years ago or the tin mines like, you know, remember they used to have like tin mines in the US. Not anymore. So, so you have all these things that need to be addressed and this is something that's going to take time and this is actually quite bullish for for very for very niche parts of the market. So I'm not going to say that it's like a you know super bullish uh for you know global commodity market but it's very bullish for certain producers in the US. the the I I read your article when when you you published an update on commodities like in with explicit reference to that MP materials deal and your thought process as you you're you know trying to brainstorm what's next what what metals is the US short of that could be next you rattle through the likes of uh antimony tin copper >> have you have you has your thinking evolved on that front on uh on what could be next in in predicting yeah the kind of Yeah. So I I I think like the rare earths is going to keep going because they this was like step one but they still need to address you know the heavy rare earths and you know just complete the whole supply chain because you know there's different elements to the supply chain like you can guarantee the you know the price uh you know can put a floor on the price but you also need like the refining and everything around it or the recycling uh element to it. That's number one. Then number two, I'm actually surprised they haven't done it with Antimony. I mean, with Antimony, they've given them some grants, but that's also a critical part they have to address. Uh, Tungsten, I think, is an easy one. Um, I mean, there's, you know, there's a couple projects there that are there supporting. Um, copper, they might actually build the road of Trilogy, right? I mean, they're they've been trying to build that road for since whenever. Um, so that's actually I I would love to see that road get built. Um, and that would be like a major uh major achievement. So I think the easier ones are like rarers, tungsten and timony. Uh, make some progress with key projects like copper. Um, um, stuff like northern dynasty I still think are never going to get built. Um, you know, for the reason being building a copper mine like trilogy, you know, literally you just have to make a few people shut up and you just build a road and you're done. Whereas in the case of Modern Dynasty, I think it just it's way too much. Like it takes a lot to get someone to build that mine cuz I think that mine can only be built by like Riotinto or BHP and they're not going to touch it. It's just too difficult. I mean, there are environmental risks to it. I mean, I've I've invested in that thing like 15 years ago and it was like evident that it's too risky. So So I think we're going to draw a line with like simple stuff, basically things that make common sense. I I think tungsten antimony makes common sense. Trilogy makes common sense. The rare earths they they make common sense. And I think they you know the government should really be putting money in all these things like aggressive. Um speeding up permits for smaller copper projects definitely. Um, and you know, the other thing I'm a bit surprised is they they should I mean, this trade war was too aggressive because they should have been building like uh alliances with other neighboring commodity producers like with Canada for example. Like it was an easy win to create alliances with Canada for the supply of critical metals. Um, I mean the one thing that I'm actually still super bullish on that no one talks about and no one has is tin. >> Now we talk about >> this is Yeah, I know you guys talk about it. So like so so we're kind of like the minority of like 10 people that talk about tin, but this is actually quite quite incredible. It's a we're we're so niche. We're like the niche of the niche. [Music] We're like, >> I'm pumped about, you know, >> I'm so pumped. I'm so pumped about tin. >> Oh, there you go. I'm in the right I'm glad I'm in the right podcast because I I'm super excited. I'll tell you why. Because I see people like pump all these uh Okay, I I get the story with Antimony and um Tungsten, you know, these are very credible stories. Uh but you know they're also up like 10 times from the lows. Um and you know these projects now make sense only with a floor. Like the government has to give them a floor to justify um the investment. Otherwise no one in their right mind is going to go out and build a tungsten mine based on the spot price. Like you you just wouldn't do that because you know the spot price is going to go down 50% in the next few years when the new projects come in from any country ending with Stan. Right. There there's a lot of projects in these countries with stands that uh Tajjikistan, Kazakhstan and all these ones. So you know you can just get new supply from these. But in the case of tin like the supply def the the deficit is so obvious the supply side is so bad. The demand side is just going through the roof and no one cares about it. And it's it's actually so quiet that people are not even talking about it as a critical metal as if you can have your semiconductors and your wonderful AI without tin. I mean it's actually like a beautiful setup remains like um you know I'm still bullish in your it's actually the only stock I own in Australia still I've owned it for a few years is Metals X. >> I just I just refuse to sell it. I bought it like 15 20 cents. I'm like not selling that thing. Um, >> yeah, >> it it it's just insane. Like there is Have you seen a new tin mine? Like every every new tin project I see is like a it's just crap. There's nothing in there. >> Yeah, undoubtedly Alpha Min is a a much better project, but you have to be comfortable in Sure. in a different jurisdiction. And in the case of of metals, ding ding ding, I should disclose on some too. Um, >> I'm pretty I'm like I've got no confirmation of this, but I'm pretty sure they're land banking like the the the pipeline of development projects. That's what these 20% stakes are in the in the tin juniors. Like like why do you have multiple 20 like 20% plus stakes in tin juniors unless it's a land banking strategy. So like that just that just that that further complicates your supply story if if the the west's other development um opportunities don't actually have a a feasible pathway to development in the near term. >> I I agree. I don't think it's that bad what they're doing. >> They're just uh laying a game on all these little projects. Yeah, >> I mean look, Alphamine is a great project for sure, but you know, I just I I used to own it, by the way. Um, I just can't be bothered to look at news about uh Rwanda and the DRC. I just can't be bothered. So, that's why I'm out of it. Uh, but great project, sure, but I just rather just uh run with Metals X. And I I was hoping secretly that they would take out their JV partner and just be done with it. Um, hopefully that happens down the line. If that happens, that stock is just going to go like 2 3x cuz it just cleans up the whole thing. But you know, go going back to the example like Metals X is trading at what like two three times EB done nowadays. So you basically have a critical metal the only Western company doing it. trading at two three times. No one gives a because just because you know let's let's chase something else that's shiny and uh Trump said it you know if Trump says tin it's going to go up 100%. But he doesn't say tin he says like rare earths so let's just buy rare earth. Yeah, your point on alienating Canada despite them being a a resources ally is is super interesting as well because they're really cozying up to the DRC on that kind of topic. They're trying pretty hard to settle down what's happening in in the sort of wartorn part of the country talking about starting this new fund where people are going to invest targeting places like the the DRC. So the uh the geopolitical kind of strategy is interesting to piece together. Yeah, look, I I think the DRC has a great story with the US and it does make a lot of sense and um in in fact when um I mean the conflict between Rwanda and the DRC ended with US intervention which was really interesting and actually very bullish for Alphamin. So that's why I'm not against Alphamid. But having said that, you know, the area always boils into something else. So for example, there was a CIA uh coup attempt in the DRC like just recently actually which failed. Um and in the DRC, you know, I I do know for for a fact that there's a lot of uh you remember Vagner, the the Russian mercenaries. Yeah. So there's a lot of uh Russian mercenaries who operate in the DRC for a very simple reason. Like these guys were fighting against Ukraine. And you know, these guys are vagabonds. They're out in the DRC trying to secure mines. So, you know, it's not it's not without risk. Now, if the US thinks tin is so important, they'll probably go and secure the, you know, they can secure alphamin in like one day, right? But, um, why bother when I can just buy Metals X? I mean, sorry. Kind of just seeing it that way, but I'm not against it. Like, like I said, I'm just not against it. I'm just a I'm just a little bit older and I just don't want to bother reading news about Rwanda. you you've written a bit about uh a potential resolution between uh Ukraine and and Russia as well. Curious honing in on the commodities aspect and perhaps touching on inflation as well, how you think that could play out if we if we see a a resolution there in the in the near term. >> Yeah. So I I've actually like I was um expecting some progress and I did get like that runup uh to it and the more it drags I think the more pessimistic I'm getting and what I I'll tell you the where I am and what could happen. So um unfortunately right now the Putin has created a wartime economy and once you create a wartime economy whereby your whole economy depends on building weapons, recruiting young men to send to to war uh everything of around the economy revolves around supplying the the war machine. It's very difficult you as an autocrat to just suddenly come out and say, "Oh, we're doing we're going to have peace now." Okay, say you have peace. Well, what now? What's going to happen to your economy? Like those factories where you make your tanks, what are they going to do now? You're going to switch to making AI chips. You can't even program. Like you're a donkey. So like these guys are just, you know, no offense to them, but you know, they've turned into like uh 1984 type monkeys whereby, you know, the machine is just feeding the war. And if you want to keep control of the country, you can't really stop that war. It becomes like the endless war like 1984, you know? It just keeps going. And unfortunately, this is where we are with Russia right now. It's very sad because I would like this to end. Um, so that's why I'm kind of negative to it and and also there's incentives from other places like China kind of benefits from the tension because they're getting cheap energy at the same time. Um, and now they've supply they're going to have this pipeline uh the gas pipeline as well which was a big win for Chi. Um, so I'm kind of pessimistic on having progress. That's number one. But number two, if there is progress and if there's a ceasefire, I mean certain areas could get impacted. But I mean the supply chains have changed so much to accommodate like product has found its way around all these sanctions like no one can say that Russian oil isn't getting pumped and exported. It is I mean it's getting sent to India and it's getting sent to China or Russian paladium. I mean Russian paladium is still h is still finding its way to Europe. So I actually don't think it's going to make that it will have some impact but it's not going to be huge. Where it will make some impact is in the general inflation topline because wars are inflationary. So all these uh supply chain workthroughs once they you know once they come out you will have like a deflationary effect naturally also just just just on the on the cause of spending all this money well you're going to spend less money which is deflationary by itself like um you know NATO is going to spending 5% of their GDP or something stupid. So, so once you have all these general spending around uh around the war machine just come down, well, that's going to be just it will be beneficial for uh for lower inflation, but it remains to be seen. Like even Trump said himself like he was disappointed with with Putin. Um so I don't know more sanctions are not going to do much. I think >> I I I'd love to hear your your Brazil thesis. Tell me tell me why like why Brazil was going to be a massive beneficiary of debasement. >> Yeah. So the thing with Brazil, I wrote about Brazil about a year ago. Um and I I got so many emails from very good readers based in Brazil saying, "I'm so glad you're about Brazil cuz everyone hates it, including everyone here in Brazil. We all hate Brazil and no one owns Brazil." And I'm like, "Oh, music to my ears. Even the locals hate Brazil." And, you know, fast forward now, the market's up 30%. But, uh, I actually think there's more to go. Because, again, like one of, uh, the one of my smart Brazilian readers, he actually did point this to me. He said, "Look, when it goes, it doesn't go up 2030. It goes up 100." So, with the knowledge of my subscribers, I'm building up on that and just expanding, saying, "Look, we're up 30, but this thing can actually do way more." Um, for a very simple reason here, here's a setup. Number one, rates. I I'll start with the macro. So, the macro is quite simple. So, rates in Brazil are like 15%. So they're like the highest rates in the emerging to developing world, you know, like to to a serious country. Let's put it this way. Um their inflation is like between three and five. So if you compare to the US, which has like inflation of three and rates at four, you're like, "Oh shit." Okay. So Brazil has like real rates of like 10 versus the US have has real rates of like one one and a half. So that's one. So rates can only come down. That's that's number one. This is very important because all the money um and again I got this feedback from my Brazilian readers. The Brazilian uh fund industry got decimated because with rates at 15 all the pension funds and asset allocators took the money out of equities and just parked it in Brazilian government paper. That's why no one owns Brazilian equities. It's really simple. It's like those things we were taught we were taught in school which which is called like crowding out. You know when the public sector crowds out the private sector which they thought was going to happen in the US. Well, it's happened in Brazil where all the money comes out and goes into paper that pays them 15%. Because why would you own equities that don't go up 15% a year? Uh, sorry. Risk-free, by the way. So, that's that's the macro setup. That's number one. Number two is the market is actually really cheap. We're still way below the COVID uh um we're like we just bounced off like the COVID lows. So, the market is actually quite cheap and we're like, you know, it's trading at like 10 times P or something. I forgot what the last time the last P number is, but it's like if if it's not 10, it's 11 or 12. So like we're talking about like really low P multiples cash flowing. Um going back to the real asset it's actually like a real asset economy in the sense you see the companies they have it's uh valley real assets petroast real assets they have the banks which are actually like really wellrun you know they have the commodities so uh have a lot of a so their Brazilian rii is backed by um agriculture as well. So it fits in the real world, you know, real asset category owning Brazil versus like a Ponzi market. Let's put it this way. Um, so that's that on the valuation. And then lastly, uh, sorry. So that's two. Three, the currency itself has, you know, it's it was at the weakest level it's ever been. So I believe, you know, I believe in like a dollar bare market. So obviously the Brazilian rii would be a major beneficiary from a dollar bare market especially if um rates now are coming down in the US. So that's you have so you have the kicker from the currency and then lastly and more importantly the the whole market has been capped by Lula. Um and Lula has been pretty bad. I mean he's been acting like a socialist which he is. uh but more uh uh more to the left side. So he's alienated the business people and he's al you know he's been pretty bad for the economy as well just uh giving handouts to the poor screwing the the business class um and the entrepreneurs. So so so people were put off from investing in Brazil because of Lula and that was like the biggest push back I got. And then now we have a very important catalyst. We have elections in October 2026. So, we have a chance for a change. And with all these good things that I just told you, we now have a catalyst. And uh the biggest push back I was getting was when I laid out the thesis was, um, but the catalyst is like too far away. To which I was replying, well, do you want to buy it when it's cheap or do you want to buy when it's expensive? Because once you get close to the catalyst, every monkey is going to be buying Brazil. So, you know, fast forward like uh 8 n months later, market's up 30%. The catalyst is getting closer and there's still way more to it. If the catalyst gets actually like if Lula gets out, I think the market's gonna just keep going because you have like you have a I'm not going to say melee type potential, but you have a right-wing pro business candidate that could have like an Argentina 10 in terms of size uh catalyst and at the same time no one knows the market. So, I I just I I still love the setup. I think like, you know, when people ask me for like lazy trades, like I always get like asked uh you know, what would you buy? What would you sell everything? I'm like, dude, the last thing I'm going to sell is Brazil. Like, I have just no interest in selling Brazil. I don't care what you think about the outlook in the world. Like, if you think this S&P is going to crash 50%, I don't care. Like, just buy put on the S&P and I'm g just going to keep Brazil because it's there. I mean, it's it's obvious like, you know, I don't want to sell cheap stuff and uh especially when there's like a clean catalyst and a long story uh ahead of it. >> Why why why buy the index rather than um like specific specific names within there? >> Because uh I'll tell you why. There's a there's a few reasons. One, I can go big on the index um without overthinking it. um it reduces the risk of messing it up. So when the and then it's like I tell you do you want to buy the S&P on 12 times P or do you want to buy you know Microsoft on 20 times earnings and you know Exxon at 10 and you're going to be like well probably should just buy the S&P and not overthink about it kind of thing. I don't know. I mean, weird example, but you know, you can get toy things. Uh, you know, you can get smaller companies or you can buy Vallet, to be honest. I mean, Vallet is super cheap. >> Super cheap. >> But, yeah, it's super cheap. So, but I was just thinking, you know what, I'll just buy the EWZ ETF. Um, I'll supercharge it with calls on top because that, you know, because the the index allows you to buy calls cheaply. So, that's what I did. I just went like index good size calls on top good size. So that gives me like a pretty good leverage and I just you know keep it simple shrub kiss again. Um I know I should be building like a complicated basket but I'm like you know what I'm going to end up with the index because you know you're going to end up with like valet is 10% petro 10% it 10%. So you're like oh you know what just keep it simple just buy the index in size just be done with it. What about all the, you know, drama of Bolsinado and everything in the the last kind of week or two? Does it give you any sort of pause? >> Yeah, it's actually pretty good, I think, because uh so Bolsaro got sentenced. Um well, they're going to appeal that. But in reality, the the threat to the bull case for me was actually Balssonaro running for president against Lula. Because if there's one person that would lose against Lula, like I think a pet rock, you know, a shrub would probably win against Lula at this point. Um, but the only person that could lose from Lula would be Bolsaro. Um, because Bolsaro has like a check, you know, he's got a checkered history. Some people don't actually like him for a good reason. So, I think it's good that they go after him and uh and just prevent him from running because that means we're going to get a different candidate and that different candidate would probably be like Ticho who's the the mayor of S. Paulo uh was a really good guy. So I think it's actually a positive catalyst not to have Bolsonaro like you know once they confirm Bolsonaro not running I think it's pretty good catalyst for us because it just removes the one guy that would lose against that could lose against Lula. >> The way you describe the um the allocation towards Brazil. I do wonder why you've got maybe a different approach with with platinum, right? Like and this is a a kind of a question we've we've contested with ourselves like we know we we've been um you know picking up exposure to to PGM like the PGM trade for a period of time and it's like what's the best approach? Is it to to to buy a basket where you effectively can't stuff up? Um it's hard it's hard to be right about the trade and then you know wrong about your outcome. Um >> or just by physical cuz you're so scared of South Africa >> by physical and in the case in your case you know you're you're you know you got a very buoyant outlook on platinum or have and and you've you've uh expressed the latest innings of that trade why why specifically rather than than finding a >> I mean I I yeah I kind of like I paperhanded my trade. And I have to admit like it's one of the things I'm annoyed about. Um because I was uh so I got in Valera good a good level so I made money on it. Great. So I was waiting for the the the de merger of Anglo. So I was just thinking of Altera as like a event trade. Um because Anglo likes to sell cheap, right? That's what Anglo does. So when Anglo sold, they just sold it at the lows and the thing went up like 10 times. I'm like, you know what? when Anglo sells, Voltera is probably going to be the low in PGMs. So, you know, they gave us a really good entry on Valtera, so that was great. Um, and then, you know, had a run, had a good run, sold it. Um, I was expecting their placing to come out at a discount, which it did, but they kind of ramped it ramped it uh after the discount. But, you know, my thinking was it's a it's a well-run company. um it's cheaper than the rest. It's the biggest producer. So, you know, just again keep it simple and do that. But in reality, I'll tell you what the right strategy is. I've thought about it a lot and I think the right strategy is actually buy physical and just keep it and probably buy bars. I mean, the pro the problem with bars is that you have to pay like VAT around them. So, that's that's a problem. Otherwise, >> we've looked at that >> cuz Yeah. I have you looked at it. Yeah. So, same thing in Australia, right? >> Same same down here. It's a shocker. It's 10% either side. Yeah. >> Yeah. It was even more here. It was I think it was like 15 plus. So, you pay full VAT on it, which is kind of stupid because if there's one thing you want to buy physical right now, I think it's actually platinum. Um, and the other good thing about physical, like when you buy physical, you don't think about it. You don't see the mark tomarket. You just say, you know what, it's mine. It's like a house. and that's it. So I think you know the problem with these PGM equities and by the way I've I've invested in them over since 2008. I remember Lawnman for example, you know, I don't know if you remember companies like that. >> I mean these were really shitty companies like really bad and I mean even from the listed ones like I you know SBSW you know we made money out of it but >> it's a tough you know these are tough stocks. Um and Voltera was good because it didn't have debt. Impala is good because it doesn't have debt. But you know ultimately making the numbers for these companies is quite difficult because of all the byproducts like let's put this way you might get the price of platinum right but you might get the price of paladium wrong and roodium might collapse. So you're expecting them to make money but they actually lost money. So they're not like as clean as a gold company for example where you know there the price of gold and that's it that's your margin. And then you have the South Africa risk which just makes everything more complicated. So if you if you just look at the supply supply and demand of of platinum, supply is crap. I mean no one's producing more more platinum and the supply is coming now out of recycled material and like you know inventories and stuff like that which you know can easily go the other way. Um, so that's that and then the demand side is actually being quite okay. So if you want to just hedge geopolitically and just hedge the whole supply side remaining crap, which it will, I think you just buy physical platinum and forget about it. Like you know, become like the gold bugs. Like if the gold bugs are storing gold bars, why shouldn't you as a platinum bug store some platinum bars? I mean, I I would love to hear someone, you know, come up with like a tax efficient way of doing it, but I guess like the ETF is probably the the easiest way at the end of the day. I mean, I was doing it with futures, but probably ETF is better um to just avoid the roles and be done with it. >> Yeah, I I I think so. You mentioned palladium there as well. How do you sort of think think about palladium? >> I mean, see, palladium is a is a tough one. Like I I I never liked palladium but again it's a burden of history because you know I remember palladium used to be at like 300 bucks because automotive companies were using platinum for catalytic converters and then the platinum became so expensive they just switched to palladium um which pushed up the price of palladium from 300 to like 2,000 and it became more expensive than platinum but they never switched back to p to platinum. because there's actually way more supply of palladium. Um, and this is one metal that actually Russia is a big producer of. So, having said that, the Norrisk mines of uh the Nork mines that produce palladium are really crap. Like they really just haven't invested anything there for the last few decades. So, basically like the you know the Russians that don't like to invest. they just like to take as you guys know. Um so they've been just draining the money, getting it out of Russia, putting it in uh you know the south of France in villas instead of uh reinvesting uh reinvesting in their mind. So I I actually think those palladium mines are not going to be as good as people think. But, you know, that said, I'm more of a I'm a platinum maxi versus caring too much about palladium because I, you know, I see platinum as a precious metal and I see palladium as an industrial metal. So, if I'm going to store some like, okay, the simple example I get is like you go to your wife or girlfriend and you just say, "I bought you this beautiful palladium ring." She's going to just slap you. Like what? Palladium ring? Like you're only going to give like a platinum ring to someone. You're not going to give like a palladium ring. I mean, was it what is that? >> So, >> are you actually going to give a platinum ring? Is that a thing? >> Of course. I I gave my wife a platinum ring. >> Did you? >> I I think in the sort of, you know, the public consciousness like the tiers, you know, you have bronze, silver, >> gold, platinum, you have a platinum cut, all all these things. Platinum's at the top. >> Yeah. Platinum's at the top. >> Yeah. But it's always actually a digital embodiment rather than a physical embodiment. >> So it was actually funny funny factoid but um the platinum association partnered with the beers back in the 2000s um to make a marketing campaign in China that if you want to get engaged you should be offering a platinum ring with a diamond on top. So it became like you know the top uh sorry the aspirational goal for a proposal in China would be like a platinum ring with a diamond on top thanks to the beers campaign with the platinum association in China. >> Get a get a lab grown diamond these days just plonged on top. >> Yeah, exactly. >> Oh that's a big discussion by itself actually. Before we jump into that one though, how do you think because you're a sort of trader by mentality sort of shrub. How do you think about these ratios? You you you've obviously mentioned there you think of platinum as a precious. >> We hear a lot of people, you know, if we go back to what you referenced there 2008 sort of time frame. The ratio of platinum to to gold completely different. Do you do you pay much attention to that? >> Yeah, of course. Um I lost a lot of money doing that. So that's thank good for bringing it up. Um, so when I first invested in platinum, it was like 2 to1 to gold. Like the first time I did analysis on platinum. Then at some point I actually remember buying platinum at a 30% discount to gold and I got stopped out like 5% lower or something. It went from like 70 a 30% discount to like 35 and I think I stopped it out like ages. I'm talking about like 10 years plus and then I thought it in a different way which was more helpful and that was about a year ago when I went big in platinum. Platinum was trading at like 950 or something. It would trade like the 900s. Platinum was in the 900s and gold was breaking out in the 2000s but it was breaking out like two and a half thousand or something. And I thought about it differently at that point and that's what really helped me. I was like look platinum is trading at 30 35 cents on the dollar to gold. I don't need to short gold. I just need to buy platinum because you know I'm seeing there's a bull case for gold. It's obvious like the trend is there. The thesis is there. The macro is there. So I might as well just buy the precious metal that's trading at like 30 cents on the dollar. you know just see that as a floor. So I think the ratio basically what I'm trying to say is the ratio is a very is very helpful to just guide you for the investment decision versus you should never ever trade the ratio itself. Just don't trade the ratio. It's stupid. Like just don't do it. Like anyone hearing this don't trade ratios of commodities. Inherently stupid. >> Leave that to other people. >> Yeah. Just keep it simple. I think I should I think it should be a marker. I think it should be a guideline that basically like when you buy platinum at 30 cents on the dollar to gold, it's a good investment and you should just buy it. Simple as that. And you can make the same argument, by the way, with oil versus gold, copper versus gold. Like these things are very good markers to just see where, you know, where the lows are. Actually, I would love to see where the oil versus gold is right now. It's probably like at the lowest or something. >> Yeah. Yeah, that one's that one's super out of whack. Speaking of gold as well, no Noble is one of the the names in in that sort of portfolio you've got and that whole offshore services, you know, bitaris Noble, all these guys, they're they're really interesting and they're super unloved at the moment. So, curious to hear you sort of riff on on why you hold a small sort of position in that. Yeah, it's kind of like it's one of those things like I felt like it bottomed out like I owned it from higher and then I felt it bottomed out in the 20s so I had to buy more then it went up to trim but I kept that position because it's it's it's a it's part of the real asset portfolio. Like there aren't that many rigs. The the number of rigs around the world are still the same. So it's again a supply side issue. Like the supply of rigs is still there. Uh the rates are kind of okay. they're making good money. So, you're kind of getting like a levered play on the oil price if the oil price actually ever goes up again. But at the same time, the offshore, sorry, the offshore break evens are pretty low right now. So, in the 30s. So, I think the offshore industry is going to be okay regardless. So, that's kind of why I like the offshore oil services versus anything else. Like, I don't touch I don't touch shale or anything like that. But on the offshore side, if you think about it, if your break evens are 30, you have a pretty big margin of safety for all these projects to get done. Um, versus shale, that's number one. And number two is well, you only have x number of rigs. Um, so that's supportive for the rates uh itself. And you know, like you remember like two years ago, everyone loved these uh offshore drillers like it was like the best thing since sliced bread. And now no one talks about them. while they're still they're kind of like boomers like you know Noble pays like a six to eight% dividend just chugging along. So kind of hate to say it but it kind of like paid to wait until there's like a one of those things right >> just boring boring stuff 6 to8% just hang >> yeah nowadays like 6 to8% is like what a Ponzi does on a daily basis but it is what it is. >> Yeah. Yeah. Absolutely. Ponzies. The rolling ponzi thesis that uh you >> the rolling ponzi thesis >> you popularized when we well >> I mean dude the rolling ponzi thesis I gota I mean I'll say it now on air. I was going to write a piece on it but it's it's an interesting one. So so I came up with the rolling ponzi thesis like a year ago. Um it was before an Nvidia quantum conference. So I was like I said I'm going to write a thesis that's so stupid. I said like this is stupid, but it's so stupid it might work. So there was an Nvidia quantum conference like a few weeks later. So Nvidia was going to present about quantum computers and all that crap. So I was like, well, why don't we just buy calls on all these quantum computing stocks like O andQ and some other smaller crap and uh you know just buy calls into the conference and you know those calls ended up going up like four or five times and you know the small one the small stocks uh you know IOQ doubled so the call went up like five times or something and then the small the small uh quantum stocks went up like 2 3x into the conference and I'm like oh there you go the rolling ponzi thesis has been confirmed like people just love to buy the ponzies and they just uh run into them and I you know I did the same with the uh smrs so like oklo and oklo and here's the interesting part I thought those quantum stocks would actually deflate afterwards which they did but then they took another life of their own so I in Q I think I sold it like when It was like six billion company. Like it was a six billion company, dude. Like it was still like it's still insane for something that makes no no money, right? So I checked yesterday and it it's a 22 billion company. So it went up 3x and then I checked these smaller ones that you know I made like 2 3x my money on that. They went up another 10 times. And I was like, "Oh my god, these quantum like this quantum ponzies and all these SMR ponzies and all these things like there they were rolling ponzies for the first few months. like you know they went up then they went down but then they got a life of their own and they just it just became like they gained critical mass to the point where now they're like IQ 20 billion QBTS 8 billion Rietti 8 billion so you know put them together you're talking about like 36 billion worth of market cap in three companies that produce no revenues and I'm like dude 36 billion is pretty much like the whole critical metals industry Don't say it. >> I know. I know. >> That is wild. >> Yeah. I mean, you chucked in the line. >> You chucked in the line in one of them. Valuation doesn't matter. You wrote it somewhere in one of your >> Oh, it doesn't matter. Yeah. Valuation doesn't matter. It doesn't matter. Like, and and that's coming from someone who grew up like as an investment banker, you know, as a fundamental analyst using spreadsheets and, you know, trading it based on multiples and that stuff. One thing I have concluded that thankfully you know thankfully uh few years ago valuation does not matter and you know these quantum stocks is actually quite an example. It's all about getting the thematic right um and just the momentum behind it but of course you know people that actually just people that whose investments thesis depends on that they they end up getting killed by the way just so we're clear. So, for example, you know, these companies could easily end up at zero right down the line. But on the way there, they could be up 10x. And that's why I'm actually really against shorting the these companies. Like I I tell people like don't even think about shorting these companies. Like you either you either long them or you just pretend they don't exist. >> I valuation doesn't matter until it it does though, right? >> Yeah. It doesn't matter until it does >> and then it's the only thing that matters. And I mean I actually the reason I say that is because you know the the two short positions you have right now. >> Yeah. >> I'm sure valuation is kind of part of that. Nvidia and Tesla. >> Oh 100%. Yeah. So that's quite funny. Like I never short single names. Um I used to I was actually quite a don't want to brag but I I thought I was a pretty good short seller. Um and um the reason why I have a pretty high hit rate with shorts is because I I never short. So >> yeah. So, obviously I'm going to have a high hit rate because I don't really do it. So, >> but you know, I kind of like I put two shorts on single names. Um um I'll say I I'll I'll say them out loud because it's just funny by itself, but um and and by the way, just caveat, this is all parody. Um not investment advice, and you'd be stupid to be shorting stuff anyway. Um, so I'm short like Nvidia and Tesla and I see them as like funding shorts in the sense I I don't have anything against them per se, but I just like to find these, you know, Nvidia's 5 trillion and Tesla is like one and a half trillion. So if I'm going to hedge my portfolio with something, just rather do it like and I have a lot of midcaps that are doing pretty well right now. Um, I might as well just hedge my portfolio with things that I think are like maxed out. Um, because if the market turns I mean Nvidia has a whole uh, you know, I think the Nvidia bookcase is like maxed out like maxed out. The only people left uh to buy GPUs are like the Martians or something. Um, so so you can just bet against that. And then Tesla Tesla has like a whole story by itself with uh EV competition from everything else. Like you know even here in Europe I see more BYDs getting sold in Teslas for example. So and but I'm I'm like I'm like super opportunistic with shorts. Like you know if they go up 5% I'm going to just get stopped out so I don't really care. Um but yeah my my shorts are very tactical very few. I hate doing it. Like sometimes I even wonder why, but you know, I'm kind of writing my tra trading diary, trading diary. So that's why I share them. But I just wonder sometimes like, oh man, I'm going to write down that I shorted something. I'm going to get like 10 hate mails. I'm going to get like people telling me I'm an idiot, which is fine. It's okay. I'm a shrub, right? So um >> from your sort of journey, you know, you've spoken about the the GFC in that point in time to where we are today. When did valuations start to not matter? I think the big turning point was uh co I mean there was always like a switch out of valu sorry whenever sorry when they started talking about like factors when people started trading factors that was a big change because once you start trading factors valuation is not like there is a valuation factor and there is a growth factor and then when you start putting like AI factor thematic factor when then you start diluting valuation by itself valuation becomes a smaller part. But I think the real catalyst was probably co because during co that's when we had like the retail army really pick up people staying home and trading and you know when people you know there's an army of traders that doesn't use valuation. Um so that's when it got even more diluted and becomes became self-reinforcing because the algos are picking up um the algos are picking up the retail flow and the retail flow is trading on the back of alos becomes reinforcing. It's like a circle jerk in reality and then they just run up these things to the moon and valuation just uh loses control. I mean, you know, classic, let me I'll give you a few classic cases like Tesla lost, you know, has hasn't had valuation as a factor in its share price ever. So, that's number one. Number two is like uh MSTR, so Micro Strategy um trading at a premium to its Bitcoin of like two 300%. Why? There's no reason behind it. It's like the algos and the retail just took at that point. It became self-reinforcing and it became a new reality. It's like the matrix. Like things just become a reality. We we create our own reality. It's about like let's put it this way and this is a dangerous thing about Chad GBT. Like it's like training Chad GBT using Reddit. Like Reddit is just a bunch of monkeys writing nonsense, right? So if you train CHBT on the back of nonsense, well, it's going to output you nonsense. So it's the same thing with the algos. Like the algos are training on the back of nonsense. So they output nonsense. So all these things is just create like a you know they create a reinforcing mechanism whereby valuation gets diluted. And by the way the biggest idiots are the ones that are using uh at the sell side the biggest idiots are actually the sell side which work um work backwards from the share price to get their price target. So for example you know Tesla is running say they run up Tesla to like 400 on the back of this mechanism. I I said this self-reinforcing mechanism, the retail guy chasing it is actually smart. He's making money. The algo chasing it is not smart, but it's doing its job. But then the sellside analyst is going to come out and say, "Oo, the $400 share price is justified if you look at a 2040 TAM of $5 trillion." And if you work backwards, it's trading on a 10 times P on a 2050 basis. So that guy is the idiot. Okay, just to just to be clear because that guy is gonna justify the stupidity based on fundamentals when there's no fundamentals involved. Sorry for the rant, but that's kind of like we have to call out the idiots here and that's the sales side. >> I I I love the rant. How do you how do you piece in passive flows into that? Because they've just been massive the last couple decades and just accelerating. >> Yeah, look, the the passive flows are a um feature of the system and you can't fight against it. That's why um that's why you know when you do shorts or when you look at the index you have to be tactical about it like the whole thing is like a Ponzi scheme which is fine you know you don't really want to bet against Ponzi schemes. Um but you know it's just more money coming into the system and that money uh benefits the big stocks that are part of the index and that's why again it feeds in this whole reinforcing mechanism like Tesla's in the indexes it will benefit from the index and vidas in the system in the index it will benefit from the index. Having said that, as a fundamental or tactical trader, you probably will make more money um finding the stocks outside the index or coming in and out of the index or whatever versus just playing the passive game. I mean, I'm talking about making real money versus just a passive investment. But, you know, this this passive thing also creates a lot of distortions. And this is where, you know, it gets quite exciting. Like one of my best trades was actually um shorting SMCI when it entered the S the S&P like uh last year. Um because they just ran it into like an overvalued level and it was was a crappy company. Like people were just gloating that it's like an Nvidia type play. It was a crappy company that had issues afterwards. like but you know the overvaluation of SMCI when it came into the index presented like a great short opportunity. I think it was like one of the very very few shorts that I did all of last year. Um so you know I I don't like to bet against passive. I mean I'm actually going along with passive like happily going along and you know giving thanks as we float away into uh to the moon. But it does give opportunities. It's um I don't want to look you know I don't want to uh be ungrateful for the opportunities that the passive system gives. And by the way, like I I was having this discussion with someone uh last week. He said um I have decided to stop trading altogether and I will be allocating only in passive because it worked over the last 10 years and it's going to keep working for the next 10 years. And I was telling him, "So after all the discussions we've had all these years, that's the conclusion you came up with." And he was like, "Yeah." I said, "Okay, great. Well, let's not talk about investing again together." Because it was like, "Okay, you just completely missed the whole point." But anyway, whatever. So, you know, I'm not against passive, >> but I just think there's a lot of ways to skin the cat, and I think there's a lot of ways to complement a portfolio. Like, you look at Brazil versus the S&P this year. You look at you look at platinum versus Bitcoin this year, we're talking about like 20% outperformance on both. Actually, probably more uh on things that no one talks about. And by the way, the thing with uh the one thing we didn't talk about, you know, this this guy that was telling me about passive, I told him like, "You know what your net return was uh this year?" He says, "Oh yeah, 10%." It's like, "No, it wasn't 10%. You made 10% on the S&P and you lost 10% on the dollar, dude. You're flat. You kind of just like ran to stay, you know, to break even." So if you didn't have the European diversification then uh then you lost out. You actually are poorer this year. Like if you were just in the S&P this year, you were poor. That's why you just have to be smart in your passive allocation. You know, if you are in passive allocation, you have to be smart about it. You can't be like the classic Bridgewater model of like 6040. You can't you can't do that. You have to be like equities plus bonds if you must. Like I hate bonds, but you know if you must um plus commodities or something, you know, something back to the barbell approach, something that will have like a barbell that will save your butt if the currency debasment plays along, which it is playing along like like I said like it's you know this year the S&P return is zero in effect like on a dollar adjusted basis but everyone's just cheering about it, right? So so people don't even think about it. That's how that's how um brainwashed they are that they don't even think that this year they broke even. They just broke even. And this is going to have implications because um I don't think people are ready for it. I have to admit the golden age of grift man. The golden age of grift it just brainwashes people, makes them dumber. People forgot their maths, you know. No one does maths anymore. Um, like you said, valuation matters eventually. Uh, but common sense matters the most. >> You balance cynicism with optimism. You laugh at the grift, the shrub, but you still play the game. How do you keep from just being consumed by the absurdity? >> Uh, because our uh our guiding light and our beacon is our moto. Once you realize it's all nonsense, it starts to make sense. >> That's fantastic. I think that's a a perfect spot to leave the conversation. Lashbub, it's been a pleasure. Loved having you back on. Everyone should check out your Substack. Just search Lashub and we'll chuck it in the show notes as well. >> Shrubstack. >> Rub stack. Thanks a bunch for joining us. Always great to chat. >> Thank you so much. It was great having you guys. Who would have thought that a talking shrub could be so insightful, >> so knowledgeable and so great to chat with? And it is all made possible thanks to our fantastic partners mate Sanvic Ground Support Focus, the platform by Market Tech and IMAK. Get your tickets for the conference in late October. >> U money minus >> udaroo. Now remember, I'm an idiot. JD is an idiot. If you thought any of this was anything other than entertainment, you're an idiot and you need to read out a disclaimer.