What Happens to the Stock Market After an Interest Rate Cut? | WAYT?

Summary

• Interest Rate Cuts: The podcast discusses the potential impact of interest rate cuts on the stock market, highlighting the mixed historical performance following such cuts.
• Quarterly Reporting Debate: The hosts debate the pros and cons of moving from quarterly to semiannual corporate reporting, emphasizing the need for transparency versus the burden on companies.
• Social Media Algorithms: Concerns are raised about the negative societal impacts of social media algorithms, which prioritize engagement over well-being, contributing to political division and mental health issues.
• Consumer Spending Insights: Despite negative sentiment surveys, data from companies like Live Nation and Urban Outfitters suggest that consumer spending remains strong, contradicting the pessimistic economic outlook portrayed by some media.
• NASDAQ's Tokenization Initiative: NASDAQ plans to tokenize all stocks by 2026, aiming to enhance trading efficiency through blockchain technology, which could revolutionize market infrastructure.
• Energy Sector Outlook: The energy sector, particularly companies like Exxon Mobil and Chevron, is poised for potential breakout as they approach key resistance levels, suggesting a bullish outlook.
• Investment in Leadership: The importance of investing in strong leadership is highlighted, with a focus on betting on exceptional individuals to drive company success.

Transcript

[Music] What up, Michael? How are you? >> What's up? Happy birthday. >> All right. Yeah. Oh, guys, it's uh Rhold's 12 12th birthday. What do you get a 12-year-old for their uh What would you get a 12-year-old right now if you had to buy a birthday gift? >> Probably one sh one one share of Uber. All time. Let's go. 12-year-old boy. >> You'd get him a share of stock. What is he going to do with that? >> N all real talk. I get Uncle Michael. No, get him a Steph Curry jersey. >> Steph Curry. Maybe Anthony Edwards. >> No. Maybe Steph. >> Does a 12-year-old now into Steph? >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> I don't know. >> All right. I listen. And I don't know. I don't I don't even know what to get either. Uh anyway, happy birthday, Red Holtz Wealth Management. Uh 12 years old. Uh pretty pretty incredible. I was looking at some old photos of uh how far we've come and how far you've come in terms of the way you're dressing. I just want to point out for the pounders, Michael is just bodying the fit today. >> Dude, it's Tuesday. It's Tuesday. I had to dress up. >> You look You look great. You look like a million dollars. All right. Uh guys, welcome to uh what are your thoughts? Every Tuesday at 5:00 p.m. Eastern, Michael Batnik and I go live uh with the fans to talk about the biggest headlines in the markets, in the economy, all the things that matter to the investors and the traders who watch the show. So great to be with you guys live once again tonight. Want to give a shout out to the situation room who recognized Michael is in a corner office on Bryant Park. That's correct. Bonus points if you could tell me what street. Uh, no googling. No googling. Cash king is here. Thank you guys for going live. Hey, this is what it's all about. Akbar Muhammad, Chris Brown just got that compound navy trucker hat. It's the best one. Guys, the hat is available. I can't say forever, but right now Ishop.com, Iontonshop.com, we have the official compound trucker in two colorways. And uh I like both. I I rock both. So, um, Georgie D is here back from vacation. Joe Alamaro, what's up, Pounders? What's up, Joe? All right, all the gangsters are here. We have a, uh, sponsor tonight. Let's, uh, let's give a quick shout out to our sponsor, Public. Michael, what's going on with Public these days? >> Listen, this is the platform, and I This is not lip service for those who take investing seriously. This is not a gimmick. This is not meland confetti. This is real deal investing. Okay. So if you want to learn about industryleading yields, if you want to learn about whatever you want to learn about investing, factual stuff, research, trading, go to go to public. So public doesn't really tell people how to invest. It doesn't sit in judgment of what you do or what asset classes or what strategy. I think it's basically trying to make it so that if you're serious about investing, you have a really great app and um they also have industry act uh industryleading yields on the platform. You can still get 4.1% APY on your cash with no fees and no minimums. Um they're also foning the platform with AI which I think everyone's uh interested in. So >> wait, hold on, hold on. This is important. This is important. So yes, you're right. Go to public.com what areyouths I'm sorrywyt this is paid for by publicinvesting full disclosure in podcast description. I just want to say one more thing on the AI stuff. They're building this tool where you're going to be able to type out what you want. Let's just say that you say I want the S&P 500 but uh no Mac 7 or I want the S&P 500 no materials. Oh my god it's coming. >> Yeah. Unbelievable. >> And I was playing with I was playing with the early version of it. Um, Yannik texted me and uh or so Yannik text me or life. Somebody texted me and I was playing with it. I really think that for a self-directed investor um the combination of a great app but then the ability to like just use AI to ask a natural language question and get the the tool here. >> Magic. Magic. >> Yeah, I think it's I think it's tremendous. So, uh huge fans of the guys at Public and thank you guys for sponsoring the show. All right. Trump wants to get rid of quarterly reporting. Let's put this up. Subject to SEC approval, companies and corporations should no longer be forced to quote unquote report, not sure why that's in quotes, on a quarterly basis. Quarterly reporting exclamation point, but rather to report on a six-month basis. This will save money and allow managers to focus on properly running their companies. Did you ever hear the statement that quote China has a 50 to 100year view on management of a company whereas we run our companies on a quarterly basis? Not good. >> Not good. >> Four exclamation points. Uh all right. What are your thoughts? Let's start right there just on the on the statement itself. >> Oh, I love it. I love it. So here here are my thoughts. I did the the the meme of the girl. Was she drinking something where she went like hm like that? >> I don't know which game you're talking about. >> The girl that made several faces like yes, maybe. And then ultimately no. >> She's like she's like uh puckered up almost. >> Yeah. So anyway, that that's that's what I went and within the span of 5 seconds I said terrible idea. Wait actually and the reason why I said terrible idea is okay we need transparency. Okay, investors need to be spoken to. Now, I understand that these quarterly reports suck up resources, time, financial, and otherwise from these companies. I understand the short-term nature that this uh allows investors to think every 90 days. So, from that point of view, um I think we need we need it. But it it is tricky, but if you don't hear from companies regularly, they will lie to you aggressively. So, I think ultimately this is not good, but it's I don't think it's black or white. I think there's there's sides been made on both sides. Cases been made on both sides. >> Okay. Um why does Trump care about this? >> Oh, that I don't know. >> Okay. Who's in his ear telling him? And I'll tell you another thing that's bad for America. Quarterly reporting. >> Well, here's what I would guess cuz he didn't come up with this on his own. >> Perhaps this is we need more public companies. One of the reasons companies aren't coming public is because it's a pain in the ass to become public. Get rid of this. Ease the burden a little bit. And maybe this was his idea. But I fear that even though it's a distraction, it's a time suck. I think that if we were to just do a a semiannual report, the [ __ ] that companies would try to get away with would be so so so far over the top. Okay. Um I sort of feel strongly that they should allow companies to move to a semiannual but then don't get upset when companies when investors opt only to invest in companies that give them transparency into earnings and operations at least every other every 90 days. Like in other words, what will the multiple be on a company that voluntarily says, you know what, we don't want to we don't want to tell you what's going on until another 6 months go by. >> It depends on the company. It depends on the company. Depends on the company maybe. Okay. >> Burkshire Berkshire investors wouldn't give a [ __ ] >> I might be the only company that can get get away with it. >> Yeah, probably. Who else you trust? >> Uh Tesla. >> Tesla could just never report earnings and nobody would give a [ __ ] So, I don't think it's black. I don't think it's black or white, but this is top of mind for me because I was I was just listening to Apple in China, which is a phenomenal book about Apple and their growth and all in China, everything like that. And Tim Cook tried to get away with it early in 2018. They were having serious trouble in China. And uh let's just said that they didn't do a great job being transparent with the investors. Like a month later, bad news came out of China and they were like, "Wait a minute, we just heard from you." And they were like, "Oh, well, things they knew. They knew and this is Apple. So if Apple is playing games and then there's a class action lawsuit after that. If Apple is playing games, you you got to hear from companies. So I get that it's a waste and it's a charade and I get all that, but you need to hear from it. So I but I do like your idea about let companies decide. Okay. I also think it's important to point out why we have companies reporting on a quarterly basis. It didn't just like magic. This was not on the ta the tablets that God handed to Moses on Mount Si and then it's just like oh we report quarterly cuz in the Bible this came about because in the 1960s basically the that was the early days of the financial scandal. We just had scandal after scandal after scandal and all kinds of mini crashes and ac the the academics and the regulators and Wall Street power brokers all met and discussed and law firms and they came up with well at the heart of this problem is that um investors have to wait too long to find out what's going on. there's not enough transparency throughout the course of the year and a lot of companies are doing things where ah we wanted to deal with it till the end of the year. So they're pulling something early in the year and then they have months to cover it up or hide it or obfiscate it. You can't do that when every 90 days you're putting your results up. It it makes it harder to hide things. So we had this thing in the early 60s called the salad oil scandal. Um, it sounds quaint now, but there was literally a company that had tankers that were supposed to be filled with salad oil. Somebody was cheating, filled them with water. Uh, by the time it got reported to investors, it was like way too late. A lot of money was lost. It sounds like hilarious today, but this was a huge deal. Um, in the early 1960s, it led to a lot of reforms. So in the in 1970 after a whole wave of these things um I don't remember the names of all of them uh they adopted rule 13A-13 under the securities act of 1934 and uh this was the rule that required a form 10 Q which is the quarterly report be filed with the SEC every 90 days. Um it took effect in 1971. By no means was this the end of financial scandals. Uh but I I do think like we've had this EV evolution. In the 80s, the way they did earnings reports was uh press release and and they would send it out to the wire services. If you were a big company, the AP would pick it up. It would be in the newspaper. IBM reported earnings yesterday, right? And then there were fax machines. And then in the early 90s when we had conference call technology, that's when these things started to become Wall Street analysts sitting on calls with management. You talk first, then we get to ask you guys questions. The format that we know of today really is only a phenomenon that's existed for the last 30 years. And not all public companies were doing these calls and Q&As really until about 25 years ago. We had something called reg regulation fair disclosure or regd and I I was new in the business but I remember when it was adopted. This is the prohibition of selective disclosure of material information to only analysts or big investors. People can't believe this when I tell them, but in 1999, it was perfectly legal for Cisco Systems CEO to call his favorite analyst at Morgan Stanley and say, "Hey, the quarter is going to be a few pennies light." Like, this was what you paid Wall Street for. This was alpha. you literally were able to have corporate management selectively disclose things to certain hedge funds or certain analysts and then the analysts would white glove the stock. So the analyst would color it so it's not the end of the world and they would kind of like gradually walk the stock lower, but the whisper would go out because everyone knew the Morgan Stanley analyst is best friends or plays golf with the CFO of this company and people just said, "Oh, Morgan Stanley downgraded it." Well, he's the axe on that stock and he would know if there's an earnings problem. So that was the world of the 90s and that's why active management was in its heyday and people were willing to pay mutual fund managers and hedge fund managers unbelievable amounts of money because it was like a legal form of inside information. So regulation fair disclosure is really uh being adopted in 2000 is really when the earnings season earnings conference call that's when this thing really gets solidified and we've been living with it for 25 years and nobody's really questioned it. So I mean I do like that somebody's like wait why are we doing this? I kind of think it's cool. But even even if you say maybe we don't need to spend all this money and time and aggravation and maybe it's not good for investors to judge 90-day periods, fine. But just remember the these things came into existence for a reason because less transparency, more scams. Thoughts? >> Uh well done golf clap. That was very good. Um, one of the things that I was thinking about as you're you were doing your monologue is that easing the burden on new companies coming public. We need to hear from them more more than ever. I mean, imagine hear from Core Wee every six months. The the you could have an earnings report where the stock could drop 60%. So Oracle stock Oracle is one of the top 10 stocks in the world. It stock went up 40% because there was new information, a $300 billion contract with OpenAI that was not in the stock. And then we got the information and the stock had one of the biggest one day moves of all time. Could you even freaking imagine if it was a new issue and you heard from them every six months, the stock a stock could fall 90% conceivably. >> Great point. Like like okay, we're going to ease the burden on corporations, but we're going to amp up the daily volatility having companies drop these truth bombs out of nowhere after not saying anything for months and months and months. It's not like that's not great for anyone really. Yeah. So, I don't I I don't hate it. I don't think it's like the dumbest idea. Um, so maybe the idea for companies to opt in, but I really am against the idea of just it's semiannual, like just a blanket across the board. That I don't like at all. >> So, we got some guys in the chat saying this is definitely coming from the All-In people and uh David Sachs. >> Oh, yeah. Yeah, that sounds right. >> That sounds right. I was thinking about that because they those guys do want to see more IPOs. They're very involved in the venture world. They're definitely hearing from the founders that they back that they invest in like why would I want to go public and then do quarterly uh updates. So I I think that's maybe true. Some other people are saying no no no no no. This is like a whisper coming from Lutnik. Howard Lutnik of course um having spent uh you know his entire career on Wall Street at an investment bank could be that too because uh Cander Fitzgerald obviously involved at the the um the shallower end of the pool in terms of like small caps coming public and making markets in smaller companies and yeah this is a frequent complaint of um sub1 billion dollar public companies they're being held to the same standards as Fortune 500 companies that have the resources to do all this investor relation [ __ ] not every company wants to devote 10% of their annual profits into complying with with all these regulations. So, I I like that it's being discussed. It's not one of these things where I kneejerk hate it, but like deregulation the the the whole thing with all forms of deregulation, it's just important to remind people these regulations aren't naturally occurring. They came about because throughout the course of market history, there was a need for this. Now, if you say, "Well, the auditors are better and therefore the if as long as the auditors are getting reports each month and they're seeing the the money, then maybe the public doesn't need to see it that often, I could be talked into that. I don't love it. >> So, I I actually don't think I need." Now, that being said, Atkins at the head of the SEC, he's going to study it. He's going to talk to people, and I think he's going to hear both sides. Um, I funny enough I think the lawyers that represent public companies are gonna say don't do it because you're basically taking the cash cow away from them. This is what they get paid for. So it'll be surprising if we ever hear I don't know if there's public comment or not. It'll be surprising to hear who was against deregulating the the quarterly report. Anyway, it's a it's an interesting idea. It's really weird that Trump has is weighing in on this and then an hour later he's got he's got football opinions. It's just crazy. We have a president who's like just omnipotent. Whatever's going on, he's got takes. >> He's an ideas guy. He's he's an he's a take guy. He's a He's a take machine. >> Okay. >> Uh incidentally, he had a public company uh in the late 90s that went to zero, DJT. Not the current iteration of DJT. It was the actual casino. Yeah. >> Oh. Oh, I know it was public. Okay, >> it was like a $6 stock. I'm like, "Oh my god, Donald Trump's has a public company. He's like the richest, most successful businessman in the world. How come it's $6?" And the guy I worked for was like, "Don't buy it." And it eventually went to zero. Um, they were definitely making quarterly reports back then. I don't know if he was involved with running it. I just know it was named for him. Um, I don't I I I I think uh I think this probably goes nowhere, but it'll be interesting to hear the the uh the conversation would would be my my final >> I don't like it. I don't I don't hate it. Hate it. Hate it. Okay. Um Adam Butler did a a post on on Twitter that I thought was was timely and noteworthy and I want to talk about it. Um it's it's long so I'm going to paraphrase and skip a few lines. He said, "Here's a hard truth about modern society. We don't practice capitalism anymore." Skip skip skip a few lines. Social media is a canonical example. It's established fact that Twitter, Tik Tok, Facebook, Instagram, etc. algorithms which are tuned to maximize advertising revenues via limbic activation and produce political division and derangement, depression and a host of other problems. But regulating against these comp these algorithms might impair corporate profits. So America doesn't regulate them because the system is not designed to protect the rights of Americans to not be exploited by corporations for profit. The system is designed to protect corporations rights to extract maximum profits from citizens. This is pathological sociopathy at societal scale. So here's where we are and I I skipped a bunch. We built the most powerful resource allocation machine in history. Then let it allocate us. We became the resource, the product, the feed stock. If you think I'm being dramatic, ask yourself, when did we last make a major policy decision that hurt corporate profits but helped actual humans? That silence you hear, that's the cancer winning. >> I I mean, he sounds like Scott. He sounds like my friend Scott Galloway. Scott was basically like, "These are the most powerful people in the world right now, the people who control these algorithms. And everything they do is about more advertising dollars." And the very simple way to generate more advertising dollars is to keep people engaged. And nothing keeps people engaged like rage. >> Yep. It's like a look, porn works, okay? But these companies are not going to go 247 porn. Um, the only major social media network that's allowing pornography right now, throw out Reddit, is uh is X. Um, so Instagram, you can't you can't even show a nipple. And um, you know, so they're they're buttoned up there. So what do they do? like how do they how do they like amplify engagement if they can't do um if they can't do Naked Girls? The way they do it is by making us all want to kill each other. And what's interesting is there's no limit on violence. You can show executions, you could post video clips of beheadings, um like the stuff after October 7th, just like women bloody being paraded through the streets. you, the algorithm will show you those [ __ ] clips seven million times until you want to go load up a gun and shoot somebody and there's no limit on it. And so basically, we've said like, okay, no porn other than X, but unlimited violence and maybe every once in a while we'll put a little warning thing that somebody just clicks through. Um, but no check on it whatsoever. No age limitation. Um, anyone can see anything. There was, you saw the there I didn't watch this. I assume you didn't either, but there was a beheading last week. That's all over the internet. >> I don't do I So, I don't do social media, so I don't see any of that [ __ ] And I'm going to tell you right now, I quit uh Twitter. I was on Twitter, I would say seven hours a day for 10 yearsish. And I quit in uh 2020. It's 5 years ago. And every time somebody sends me a tweet, yo, look at this. Oh, this is so funny. Listen to this standup comic. Um look at this. like I don't know baseball play whatever I go to it I watch the thing and then immediately under it starts populating the most vicious disgusting racist um uh violence fermenting content I've ever seen and I immediately click away and I'm like holy [ __ ] I can't believe how much time I used to spend here I think it's gotten worse um I think most people would say it's gotten worse it didn't used to be this way but like that's that's where these companies make their money. They have to keep you on. They have to keep you coming back. And the way to do that is to constantly trigger your your your central nervous system, like your your amygdala. It wants you to feel rage and fear and anger, and it wants you to take sides and join a team. And now we got kids that are doing this from the time they're 8 years old. Um, now they're 22 and they're [ __ ] shooting people. And I don't like corporate profits are at an all-time high. Hooray. Yeah. It's just it's bad, dude. You got teens who hate who hate themselves at 13 years old cuz the algorithm is showing them girls that are skinnier than them. >> I like none of it's none of it's good. And listen, I use social media. I guess right now technically we're on YouTube. This is social media. Um and I would not say that all of the evil fully outweighs all of the good. A lot of good has come from connecting the world, my own career included. I just I think Adam Butler is exactly right. And um unfortunately, the money is flowing. And they're going to use us being at each other's throats to fund this AI buildout. That's the reality. That's what's happening. And unapologetically, and it gets worse every year. And now the people who control these platforms, they are best friends with the president. So, you know, maybe you want to solve this. It's not going to get solved right now. Maybe another maybe another era. >> I saw um a real on Instagram where a woman's house burned down and she's like walking through the ashes and she looks into the camera and says, "Do you need the best soap for scrubbing burned down houses?" And it was like you what >> staged or otherwise it's so demented. >> There was a guy at the university in Utah right after Charlie Kirk was murdered. There was a guy who looked into his phone and started promoting his channel. >> Yeah. >> Like everyone around him is running for their lives. There's no way of knowing if more bullets are coming. This guy is into his phone promoting his channel, live streaming the chaos of what's go like, we're now at the point where it's it's more important to please the algorithm and get likes and engagement than it is to run for our lives in the middle of a of a shooting. >> So, nothing >> I don't know how to explain it. >> Nothing pleases the algorithm like rage and depression. And I think this is this has helped fueling the big disconnect that we talked about a couple of weeks ago where it's like people think that the world is going to hell economically. People think that everybody's getting left behind and it's just not true and you have to resist the algorithm. Are there people that are struggling? Obviously, that is always the case. Always. But the disconnect between what you're seeing from the headlines and what is reality is so mindbending because it's the algorithms. It's not real life. So, let's move on to this chart. For example, um this goes to the corporate profit piece that we're saying like corporate profits at all cost. All right. So, US nominal GDP which is a better representation of the overall economy. >> This is so >> versus the gap between that and the operating margin of the S&P 500. >> What are the what are the what's this? What are the two different y- axes? So, the blue on the left is the operating margin percentage. Now listen, >> it's like 15 15% now. >> Yeah. So, so what it's actually measuring is is less relevant than this. Just look at those lines. Okay. They used to track basically one for one. >> Yep. >> And I don't know exactly what happened two years ago, but the gap is real and it's growing. And this is this is not made up. This is not the algorithm. But I want to make the point. This is very important. It's not as if chart off please. It's not as if the corporations are doing amazing and the average citizen is just getting [ __ ] It's just not true. It's not true. Listen to what these companies are saying on their quarterly reports. They have no incentive to lie. So, I pulled this from the transcript. This is from Live Nation. I think every quarter for the last 12 quarters, I've been asked what's going to happen in the US when the consumer goes away. You guys are too far over, right? And so, for the same 12 quarters, we've said things are going fine. Uh this is from Urban Outfitters. We just have not really seen any weakening in the consumer right now. We feel good about the macro environment and the consumer. Uh despite headwinds and tariffs and all sort of headlines that are out there, this is from Tractor Supply. From our view, the consumer is healthy and resilient. Remarkably resilient. Josh just became we just before we came on, Sarah Eisen tweeted uh what did Sarah tweet? She said financial services companies in the payments and loan space. Okay. And I think these companies see the consumer >> are saying consumers are doing better. >> They might know they might know something. >> They're doing better than you think reading the papers. Alli Financial, Bank of America, they're all saying the same thing. And I'm not saying again, yes, there are people that are struggling, but this idea that like it's only the rich that are doing well and everybody else is getting left behind. It's just not true. It's the [ __ ] algorithms. It's not true. >> So, there's a few things going on here. The first is ignore surveys. Focus on data. All of the credit card companies are putting out tons of data all the time um on earnings reports in between earnings reports. They're literally telling you um what's happening with actual spending on debit and credit cards >> data >> so much more valuable than a than a survey. You could ask you could ask people how do you feel about the economy and they could give you an answer that is entirely colored by whatever else in their life they're pissed off by and what you're going to come back with as the surveyor is oh they're they're unhappy about the economy. No, they could be on. They might they might hate Biden or they hate Trump or they hate their local congressperson or they just read an article about um some somebody's teaching their kids something in kindergarten they they weren't happy with. Like they could be angry about anything and they're telling the survey that they're pessimistic about the economic outlook. It's not it's not data. It's vibes. It's feelings. It's irrelevance. It's a huge waste of your time. >> And also, if you're on the dude, if you're on the algorithm for 8 hours a day, how do you think you're going to feel about how things are going? >> How do you think you feel? >> Worse every minute. It's like whatever the opposite of Zoloft is, that's X.com. >> Worse every every minute you spend on it, it's worse. Um, here's the actual reality. The XRT, which is the retail sector ETF, is up 11% year to date. Um 63% of the companies in that index are above their 50-day. 73% are above their 200 day. So there's not just Walmart going up. Okay. Um if you actually look at what was reported on uh uh retail sales today, >> great numbers. >> 4% month overmonth, three months straight, spending is actually reacelerating after it stalled out in the first two quarters of this year. So you could take that and you could take a survey where some old man picked up the phone and vented his frustration about inflation into something that the surveyor takes as gospel about how the consumer quote unquote feels. It's [ __ ] And the way you know it's [ __ ] try to book a flight somewhere. Like try to try to stay at a at a four or fivestar hotel during a holiday. Like any anywhere you look, there are people wrongfully spending your money. >> You're out of touch, Josh. Uh I'm kidding. Um although you are out of touch, but listen to what these companies are saying. Sal >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Josh is the only one going on vacations. Listen to what Ally is saying. They serve. They don't serve the They're not American Express. Okay. Um All right. Now, it is it is also it is also true that obviously obviously obviously it is a K-shaped economy. There's no doubt about it. So there are people that are doing better than others as is always the case but particularly today. Um I saw a great chart showing that the top 10% of income earners are now responsible for half of spending which was up from 35% at the turn of the century. So yes that the both things can be true. Um and this is a really interesting chart that I had not considered as to why why spending seems to just be up and to the right. Look at this chart from variant perception. So look at the red chart. Now it's projected out into the future, but this is up into the right. And what we're looking at for people that are listening is retirees, so 65 years and older as a total percentage of consumption. They say retirees continue to make up more and more of us consumption. They're less sensitive to job market feedback's loop, although still sensitive, of course, to wealth effects from home values, etc. But these people that are retired, >> they have all the money already. Yeah. So that's >> it doesn't matter what the labor market is doing. That's a really great chart. If you're 545 to 64 years old, the state of the labor market is not the relevant thing. The relevant thing is what is my house worth? What is my stock market/retirement portfolio worth? And the answer to those two questions is just endlessly up and to the right. The third question is, do I have the wherewithal to borrow, use credit card debt, revolving line of credit? Can I basically at this point in my life do whatever I want? And for tens of millions of households, that is basically the case. Not for everyone. So for those people, the the ups and downs of the weekly jobless claims, this is not the thing that's driving their decision-m because it's not it's not the thing that's driving their ability to spend. It's how wealthy they feel. And so this booming stock market is producing economic growth for that cohort of the economy. And it's a big cohort. Um, look, for 50 years we yelled at people in this age group or 50 years, 30 years yelled at people in this age group. Save, save, save, save, save. 401k, 401k, 401k. It worked. >> Yeah. Yeah. >> And you could say it was a self-fulfilling prophecy cuz you start out with 30 million households that are using 401ks to save and then you get to 60. So So now all these new households buying in are just pushing stock prices up higher for the people who got in 10 years before. Tough [ __ ] >> dude. That's how life works. Guess what? I paid a lot I paid a lot more for my house than Zolot did. That's the way it works. And this demographic warfare. People are upset that the boomers have all the money. They're 70 years old. Guess what? When we're 70, we're gonna have all the money. What do you How do you think compound interest works? >> And when we're 70, we would trade a lot of our money to be 30. Like a lot, like a lot of it. Many, many, many 70 year olds would all would trade all their money. Pull me back 30. I'll figure it out. >> You don't want to be You don't want to be there. >> You'll get there. >> All right. Um, this was interesting. Micro strategy. I know we're calling it strategy now. I'm sorry. Uh, apologies to Michael Sailor. Denied entry into the S&P 500 despite needing tech. >> Yeah. And I didn't see this reported that widely because maybe >> maybe they'll just fix it and they'll let him in eventually. I don't know. Um, but this is a >> you know the Isaiah Thomas meme. I met the criteria but I wasn't selected. >> Uh, all right. So it's important to point out this isn't like a government thing. This is standard and pores uh S&P global ind indices that make these decisions. It's a committee. Uh we actually had St. Sam Stovall on our show. He used to be the chairman of that committee and they meet periodically and they look at public companies that have grown very large and they make decisions. Does this company um meet the criteria for inclusion? famously the the biggest issue they've ever had was Tesla is Tesla became like a $200 billion company with no profits and one of the things that's required for index inclusion is like four consecutive quarters of positive earnings and Tesla just was so out outside of the traditional bounds of that that they they had to consider it. They did wait and they famously added it way after people had made so much money. It looked like they were adding it at the top. >> Is it a strategy in a very similar situation? Does their operating business make any money? I think it made like I'm making this up. I don't want to throw out a number, but it made very little it makes very little money. >> Yeah. So that's the thing. It's um that's the thing. It's like a investment company more than it is an operating business. they do have a very small software subsidiary that's not really relevant to to the stock price. It's like the uh the remaining kernel of the original business that we used to call Micro Strategy. Um but like I don't know. I feel like it's I I feel like it's kind of a big deal. JP Morgan weighed in on this and they said um the S&P 500 index committee's decision to reject reject strategies inclusion represents a significant setback for corporate crypto treasuries. Quote, last week the S&P 500 index inclusion committee rejected Micro Strategy from being included in the most prominent equity index in the world. This is signaling that the committee which can apply discretion in its index decisions is concerned about including Micro Strategy that's effectively a Bitcoin fund. The bank argued the rejection is a blow not only to strategy but other corporate crypto treasuries that have proliferated in recent months in an attempt to replicate Micro Strategy's crypto accumulation model. Um so maybe uh well it did get into other indices. So JP Morgan noted it's in the NASDAQ 100. It's in the Msei USA, Msei World, Russell 2000, and the Crisp US Total Market Index. Crisp is what Vanguard uh uses. They don't they don't uh they don't necessarily use S&P. Um but I don't know, do you think this matters to anyone? Um, I mean it matters in the sense that strategy is not a small market cap and so inclusion in the S&P 500 would give it more dollars invested. But what's interesting about strategy more so than the inclusion or lack thereof in my opinion is the weakness in the stock relative to the strength in Bitcoin. Like it's not >> it's not the the shine is off and I don't know if it gets it back. Maybe it will, maybe it won't. But it's not it's not hot right now. So, is this I I I haven't been following that that closely, but is this the Jim Chenos um investment thesis where he went long Bitcoin or a Bitcoin ETF and went short strategy and his his idea was that like the gap the there strategy will not keep its premium to its NAV >> and so being long Bitcoin is a hedge against >> missing out on Bitcoin going to a million. And uh all right. So >> well he's he's saying he's saying like I don't want to be short strategy because if Bitcoin goes up a,000% yeah strategy might only go up 500%. Right. So >> um let's So in the last 6 months Bitcoin is up 37%. Strategy is up 10%. Let's show show the next chart. So this is basically Jim Chenos's trade. Next chart please. Micro. Okay. >> So he is betting that this chart breaks down. >> He is betting that this chart breaks down. And what you're showing is that the outperformance of Micro Strategy relative to IBIT peaked in November 2024. And I believe that's when IBIT listed options came on the market. So strategy was working because if you wanted exposure, I mean it was working for various reasons, but if you wanted exposure to crypto and you couldn't own it and you wanted leverage exposure, you couldn't get it. Well, now there's plenty of options. You could literally buy options. And so if this thing breaks down and boy is it hanging on support, it sure looks like it's going to break down. then Chainus is going to make a lot of money. If it rips in his face, then he'll lose then, you know, then then he'll lose money. >> Okay. So, we now have five digital asset trusts, right? These are we're calling these DATs, five of size. There's probably dozens because everyone's imitating everyone else. Um, you have Micro Strategy or Strategy, which is 7074 billion um in value. I don't know how much Bitcoin do they own or is that is that the amount of Bitcoin they own? >> That's the amount of Bitcoin they own. Pretty remarkable. >> So, how big is the market cap? Is it double? >> Is it a buck 50? I mean, it's huge. >> Yeah. Okay. The next one is Tom Lee um Bitmine Immersion Technology which is um which is ETH but I think they also are buying other uh crypto tokens or coins. >> Yes, it's ETH. It's ETH. >> It's like 9 billion worth of ETH. >> All right, hold on. So strategy strategies market cap sorry to cut you off. Strategies market cap peaked at uh let's see it peaked at 130. It's now down to 95. >> That's a lot of That's a That's a lot of loss market cap, >> especially Bitcoin. Especially in a in a bull market, >> right? That's with the price of Bitcoin rising. Okay. Um I would be ter I'm not in this I'm not in the trade. I'm not shorting it. I'm not involved in it at all. I would be terrified right now because if you get a bare market in Bitcoin, which happens all the time, just a normal run-of-the-mill bare market. If this thing's underperforming on the way up, what the hell is it going to do on the way down? I don't know. But I would be nervous. Um, I just lost an AirPod. All right, we have Bit We have uh Bit Miner Immersion, which is E. And then we have um MA uh MARA, which is 6 billion worth of BTC. It's also a minor. This is one of the original >> sucks. So I bit is up I bit is up 25% year to date. MARA is up >> I'm going for this AirPod. Keep talking. >> Go ahead. MARA is up 4 and a.5%. If you guys are interested in learning more about these treasury companies, our friends Strazza and Alfonso did a killer video on YouTube. I watched it the other day talking about a lot of these companies are pivoting to AI and not just like an LOL pivot because they have all of this compute power and knowhow. So um uh Riot for example, Riot is one of the companies the original block uh mining companies. Riot has pivoted to AI and they're up 71% year to date. They are on fire. No, it's not funny. It's for real. >> Yeah, I know. >> It's not just it's not it's not it's not just a name change. They're like actually doing [ __ ] >> These are sand these are all sand castles. >> Um the the wave is coming. All right. Sharplink Gaming SB. So I've never heard of this. >> $3 billion. I again if I were on Twitter all day, I'd probably know all about it. Um but I I I'm living my life instead. Uh three billion in ETH. And then the last one, Metaplanet, $2 billion. Is this Japanese? >> This is the one. I love this one. >> This is the one. >> I don't know. I don't know what this is. >> Why is it called Meta? Wait, what's the ticker? >> Wait, is this the company that was mining ETH on Mars? I don't know. >> Oh, why did you say so? >> Yeah, I don't know. >> How f How How quickly can I get long this stock? Okay. So, look, I And then of course, uh we didn't we don't have um we don't have uh Dan Ies's thing, but Dan's thing is for Worldcoin, and I don't know what the market cap is. I'm sure it's uh $900 billion. But like um I if if the biggest one of these and the most established is not going to be blessed with an index inclusion by S&P. A could that potentially change as people get more accustomed to the fact that these exist? Or B, do people just say we don't care if it's in the index? We really believe in this strategy of issuing shares to buy more crypto until this company corners the market. Yes. And gets 5%. >> Which uh you think it's it's version two? >> Yes. No. I think yes to both. I think yes to both. I don't think anybody's buying strategy. I'm sure there are people that were front running this, but I don't think the the actual thesis of strategy is not to be included in the SP500. >> Somebody named Yoku Buu Tenshi says Metaplanet is a tax loophole for Japan. All right, I got to dig in there. I have no opinion. >> I gotta uh I I I gotta dig in there. I'm not I'm not going to say any more on this. Okay. What happens after Raid Cuts, Michael? >> You tell me. >> Okay. Um I don't know if you guys saw this thing I did with uh Nick Kohus yesterday. It was really good. Um I just want to replay his chart really quickly. This is every rate cut over the last uh since 1990 by size of rate cut. Have you ever seen this before? Nope. >> Okay. So, we've had 33 25 basis point rate cuts, 1850 basis point rate cuts, and only four 75 or 100 basis point rate cut. Um, you could basically see that all of these 50s, with the exception of last year, took place during a crisis, >> like real deal crisis like 2001 and 2008 and 2020. Um, so Nick was making the point we really don't want to see a 50 basis point. Um, it's almost 96% chance I think right now based on uh chart off based on the betting markets that tomorrow Wednesday we're going to get 25 basis points. Where where are you with this? >> I'm listen 96%. I don't want to fade that. I'm not I'm not going to zag just for the sake of zagging. >> No. Like where are you on like how much is that priced? I know it's priced into the bond market. You think the stock market we get that probably very little reaction? >> What if he zags, dude? What if he zags? >> No, I'm good. >> You know what doesn't exist much anymore? People don't sell the news. You know why? Cuz the news is so well the news is so thoroughly disseminated and ingested. I mean, it's possible that we sell off because you know why not? But like sell the news is uh sort of an ancient thing. You mean like sell the news as a as a buy the rumor, sell the news? Like as a tandem thing? >> Yeah. >> Well, so the shortcut is to not sell the news cuz if you just stay long, then de facto you've bought the rumor of the next thing. >> So why do anything ever at all? All right. Uh anyway, I thought that was a good point Nick made. Let's pop this chart. Returns after the first Fed cuts. So this is like our data now. This is our stuff. So on average, >> let's do the chart. >> So chart kid Matt shows that on average the S&P 500 is up 9.6%. Uh a year later, twothirds of that is from multiple expansion. The other third is from earnings growth. Um but of course, you know, average here sort of hides what the truth is. So let's show the next chart. This is the forward 12-month return broken down by individual rate cuts. And it's, you know, it's sort of all over the place, more up than not, but some bad ones in there. >> Wait, wait. Let me let me let me just ask you a question. So, this is showing the dates of the initial rate cut of the cycle. >> That's right. >> Like, is that the that's the starting point? >> Yes. And then the the diamond is the draw down, max draw down 12 months later. >> Okay. >> Versus the average and the the 12-month return. >> So, what's your what's your what's the takeaway from this? Uh this is not satisfying, but it's it's mixed, >> right? So there's no like there's no concrete narrative of um we start a rate cutting cycle. Oh, and by the way, is this the start of a rate cutting cycle or a continuation of the one of the cut from nine months ago? >> I I think it's new. But yeah, no, fair point. >> It's new. >> Listen, I think >> I don't know. >> I think this current environment is so weird. I still think with with the mashup of of of AI and hypers scale spending of tariffs and whatever's going on there of of vibes of demographics of a postcoid world like this is a very this is a very odd odd odd odd market coupled with the fact that we've had this really strong bull market amidst a rate hiking cycle and we're rallying before rates are even lowered but like this idea that stocks are going to sell off like materially that the first rate This could be the top. >> That's it. Like we're we're writing the book right now. The book does not exist. >> It It I wish I could say, "Oh, this is just like the 1957 to 1968." We're writing >> We're writ Yeah. We're writing the screenplay. >> Yeah. >> Like right this minute. So >> So you'll like this. You'll like this. David Kelly had a good take. He was talking more about like the actual impact on the real economy. Forget about the stock market. Um and he had a maybe a bit of a contrarian take. He said the first and most important impact of lower interest rates on aggregate demand comes via its impact on household discretionary income and it is negative. This can be seen by looking at household interest, income and expense separately. On the income side, Americans had households had a total financial assets of 125 trillion 14 of which were held in uh deposits. Assuming that all of those were fully impacted by the Fed easing, a 1% decline in short-term interest rates would reduce annual househo household income by roughly $140 billion. Now, >> yes, >> of now hold on, the 140 billion is not all spent obviously, but he makes a point that if even if you were to compare that with the liability side, a lot of the liabilities are are fixed in nature and the assets dwarf the liabilities. So, if you look at that, I thought you would like that part. So he said that a 1% interest rate reduction across the board would reduce annual interest expense by $30 billion. So $140 billion >> 90 billion 90 billion in spending at risk. >> But wait, the truth is that those don't net each other out because the $30 billion in interest expense, that's money good. That is money that's being spent. Okay? The $140 billion, it's just it's Jeff Bezos earning another billion dollars a day. You know what I mean? Like it's not the same. >> All right, I get that. But still, I just want to take this moment to point out this is one of my best calls ever. 5% overnight rates risk-free were a stimulus for the economy. They were a stimulus for the top 20% of households that own the whole stock market, own the whole bond market. They had never ever felt richer than they did when they checked their 401k, record high stock prices, then they checked their savings and checking account at the bank and saw a geyser spewing more cash into >> You're not wrong. You're not wrong. But you just mentioned a key component of this. They saw the 4% cash ends in the stock market alltime highs. If the stock market, if the 5% or the four and a half% interest rates crush the stock market, the income would feel like a drop in the bucket. fine, but it's mental. It's not the dollar amount and the income to me is not the thing. It's the wealth effect produced in someone's mind when they see that not only >> are they making money in their real estate, their stock portfolio, the value of their small business, then it's like, "Oh [ __ ] my money market funds are paying me 4%." >> Yeah. Yeah. I'm going to I'm gonna go take I'm taking my whole family to the sphere >> to watch the Backstreet Boys. I'm doing it. I'm doing it right now. I don't give a [ __ ] >> My money's making money. It's been 15 years since people were able to say my money makes money. >> But that like Okay, so I really felt that way. What's this wall of worry graphic? Let's put this one up. >> So we were talking last week, two weeks ago about is the AI sentiment survey data just garbage? And I I think a lot of survey data is. But man, this this is this is this is not noise to me. This is signal. So here's what we're looking at. Chart Kid did this wonderful thing where he showed what happens on the left. This is the average path for 22 weeks, which is where we are today when the S&P 500 rallies 20 to 30%. Obviously, that's a gray line. It's up to the right. And what happens of course every time is that the average change in bullish sentiment is also up and to the right. When stocks are going up, people get more bullish. Duh. >> However, what we saw in this current example is a ridiculous rally very fast. People got left behind. And the current change in bullish sentiment is flat. This is remarkable, dude. And I know that the AI is a certain segment of investors. It's not the entire population. It's old people. >> But be that as it may, dude, the S&P just rallied 30% to 22 weeks and no bullish change in sentiment. So the wall of Nah, I don't think so. I don't think so. >> Throw it out. Nope. >> Update your data set. Okay. Don't throw it out. >> Create a tapestry >> of different sentiment survey data sets. Talk to Bro, go talk to >> Don't you don't talk to anyone. You don't talk to anyone. You talk to me. >> No, no, no. I mean if you're a surveyor. >> Okay, fine. So listen to this. >> Stop calling people at home. >> Okay, how about this? >> Who have to put their answers in to ask survey questions. >> Schwab has this report that I mention all the time called Sax or S or STAX or whatever they call it. And this is quantitative. This is not a survey. And the last four months there's been barely any rebound in activity, actual activity. People are not euphoric. They're not even bullish. Now obviously this don't talk about open. Yeah, there's people there's pockets. Okay, I get it. But there is still a lot of doubt about the sustainability of this bull market. There is. That's a fact. I'm not making that up. People are doubting this bull market. >> So that's bullish. >> Yes. >> I like that. All right. Let's move. Uh last thing I wanted to go to. The NASDAQ just announced they're going to tokenize every stock that trades on their exchange by the year 2026. I think >> big big deal. >> Do you understand what they're saying or no? So I read I read the report and I don't there wasn't a lot of why >> no the the post the post the post >> it was their post. It was like their press release. >> So it was a lot about how the rails the blockchain rails are better. Um it's coming. Listen you might not like it. You might think it doesn't make sense. You might question it. It is inevitable. The integration this is NASDAQ writing. The integration of tokenization and blockchain tech alongside traditional market infrastructure presents an extraordinary opportunity for the system. These capabilities have the potential to deliver profound benefits to issuers, investors and economies globally through reduced frictions. I like that. Excelated settlement times. Everybody likes that. automated processes of course and improved efficiencies in capital and collateral management. I am excited to share that we have submitted a filing to the SEC to facilitate the trading of tokenized securities on the NASDAQ stock market. I don't know if that means they're going to say to the issuers who list on the NASDAQ, we are going to create a tokenized version of your security and we'll do it safely and we'll test it and it'll be ready in a year. Is that what they're saying? >> I don't I have a lot of questions. I don't know how it's going to work. I know these are not derivatives. They are actual tokens that represent shareholder like voting rights. Like these are real shares on the blockchain. I don't know. I have a million questions. I don't know. But this is coming and think think about like I'm not an expert in this market structure by any means but like ADRs like and think about all of the the the inefficiencies the roadblocks the hurdles for companies trading around the globe. This is all this is all coming. There's a guy named Simon Taylor who is uh writes something called fintech brain food and he went out of his way to point out how different what NASDAQ announced was from what Robin Hood announced. So he's basically saying like Robin Hood Robin Hood created tokenized stocks um which basically were derivatives. You own a claim on a claim. It's a SPV or a special purpose vehicle wrapped around a stock. You don't the redemption rights are controlled by the SPV holder. So in other words, if Robin Hood goes under, that's who you're in business with. Like that's your counterparty, not the corporate corporation that issued the stock. they just put like their own wrapper around it. That's not what NASDAQ's saying. NASDAQ is saying we're actually tokenizing the actual equity. Um, so you keep your shareholder rights. We're not stuffing the equity into a token and then selling you the token. We're making the equity the token. I thought that was interesting. You keep your voting power. You get your dividends directly and the only thing that's changes is it it's on blockchain rails which is the less friction faster settlement part. >> Where does this custody like is this like you have to have your own wallet? I don't get how that's going to work. >> He's saying the infrastructure D uh I'll just quote him. DTCC's app chain built on enterprise Ethereum um using ERC-3643 standards. I don't know what any >> I No, I understand. Say no more. I get it now. >> Uh, Accenture, Consensus, Croup, Mastercard, Santander, and Visa are all backing this working group. What this means is 247 trading around the world, instant settlement, programmable ownership, access to US equities for anyone, anywhere in the world. And uh I I guess the way that he wrote it up is it's a really big deal. And all of the comments are all these other fintech nerds and they seem to be going crazy for it. So I look I I'm not going to do this thing where I'm like, "No, I'm going to say, "Yeah, all right. It's the NASDAQ. This is not a fly by night organization. It's not a broker dealer. It's this is one of the most important exchanges in the world. You think they're going to destroy the stock market w with with a new innovation? I doubt it. So, I'm gonna I'm gonna let this one breathe and uh we'll see how it goes. >> You know, we could look back in 20 years and think like obviously when you look back there's a lot of revisionist history, right? Your your memories morph into what you you know what you wanted to believe or what you want to believe you believed back in the day. >> Um and we might think like this was so obvious like obviously technology was going to get better. Why would you not think that technology was going to get better? The financial rails of today were built in the 70s. And I was listening to, my god, I'm getting annoying with this audiobook stuff, but I was listening to Chuck Clustermanman. He he wrote a book called the '9s. And during the internet, the early days of the internet. And even like in the in ' 95, people are like, "What is this digital internet? What is this digital highway?" Like, I don't And now people look back and like laugh how naive I was. And we might do the same. >> I'll do Well, not everything from that era though ended up turning out to be true. Um, so we only have like the winners to look back and say, "Oh, this was so obvious." But I h I have the benefit of hindsight because there was a controversy early on when I started in the business, which was the um the decimalization of stocks. So my first two years as a stock broker, we were trading stocks in eighs and quarters and um 16s, which we called teenies. And uh they wanted to make every trade go off in a penny. And like right now, like now we like take that for granted, but back then you would sell a stock at three and 5/8 and hope you could buy it back someday at two and a quarter. And uh getting rid of that was super controversial. People like, "No, don't do that. Why would you do?" They ended up wiping out profits for the market makers for about 15 years until Citadel came along. um they they wiped out small cap broker dealers who needed that eighth or that 16th in the spread to justify writing research on all these companies. They killed the IPO market. It was it was not without its casualties, but I think most individual investors would say this ended up being a great thing because my the bid spread is now a penny and it used to be 30 pennies and that adds up when you're doing big big lot. Uh, >> so can't can't we look back in 10 years and be like, could you imagine that like markets used to be closed like just because people needed to go home? >> Yeah. Yeah. I I listen. That's why that's why I I want to hear more about the NAS like what is the NASD >> and why does the NASDAQ think this is good for them most importantly? Why why are they leading the charge? It can't just be innovation for innovation's sake. There's got to be some money to be made here. So, I want to know what it is. >> Yeah. I have an open mind. >> Okay. >> All right. You're out. Make the case. >> I'm going to make the case. Um I was So I'm moving as you know and I have >> not to not to brag. You bought a beautiful home. I'm so proud of you. >> Thank you. So I got home on Wednesday night at midnight at 6:30 in the morning. Robin woke me up and said, "Let's go. Get out of bed. We're moving." And for the last five days, it's been it's been non-stop. My my national grid wasn't turned on, so I'm taking the kids back and forth to shower. We can't shower at our house. >> Oh my god. >> Um and then yesterday, >> that would ne that would never happen with sprinkles and George. >> Nothing. No chance. >> I know. >> And on Saturday or Sunday, I had I had two hours. Robin was with the kids or whatever. And so obviously I'm at my computer doing work and I'm getting caught up because it's been we've been you know off for a few days at future proof and what's so funny >> Adam said your new house is 90% mud room 10% house. >> It's true and I thought to myself and there's a reason I'm telling the story. I thought to myself I'm a [ __ ] maniac. Like I have two hours and I am absolutely going hog wild on a beautiful Saturday afternoon catching up on emails whatever preparing for this week and it I thought to myself I thought to myself that quote and then I realized like it I connected it with this. I was listening to Karen Seedman Baker Becker excuse me. She was on Patrick Ashany's podcast maybe four or five months ago and she said the quote to somebody that rejected her or passing her company. The company's clear by the way like why are you going to win? And she said because I am a [ __ ] animal. And so as I was thinking about that to myself doing work on a Saturday when I had a minute I thought about her and I said oh [ __ ] I meant to buy that stock and I don't even I don't even know if Clear is a good business or not. Like I don't care. >> You know the thing at the airport that they convince you to do cuz TSA PRI is not fast enough. >> But she was so beyond impressive. I texted Patrick like she is amazing and I I meant to buy the stock. I forgot to buy the stock. I pulled up a chart to see what was going on and I said so pull the chart on. Pull the chart up please. >> So ripping >> Wait, why all of a sudden it had such a horrible debut? Uh, next chart, please. This is the free cash flow and the revenue. >> The business is doing phenomenally well. That that'll do it. So, I haven't dug into the fundamentals. I'm going to listen to the most recent call and find out what's going on. And I probably still want to buy still will buy the stock. So, my my point is I wanted to bet on her and I just forgot to buy the stock. And when you've got like just amazing special people like this, you just got to bet on them. >> Just like pure jockey. >> Yeah. >> See, it's it's interesting. And I think this is why you've gravitated a little bit more than I have to like private market investments and venturebacked companies because that's the whole ball game. It's there is no business. There's an idea of a business. You're betting on jockeyies. You're betting on the people. >> I was talking you like that. >> I was talking to my friend today about one of our mutual companies that is crushing it. And I said like whatever Rob's doing, my answer is I I want to give you money. I don't even care what you're doing, but I I believe in you. >> Okay. So you you like so you're you're a big like management guy, bet on the person guy. >> Huge. Huge. You know what? Last thing and then I'll shut the [ __ ] up about excuse my language about these audio books. So Steve Jobs, listen to this quote. Now, you know what? I feel like my brain has been deprived of oxygen because I haven't read a book in three years because I don't have the mental energy at the end of the night. >> Remember I told you that was Remember I told you that was going to happen 10 years ago? My brain my brain shuts down at 8:45 and I go to sleep at 9:15. I am wiped at the end of the day. I can't physically read and I don't care if it's cheating. Uh fake reading is better than no reading. And I feel like I I feel like I'm alive again with these books. So anyway, Steve Jobs said just talking about like people. Steve Jobs said it doesn't make sense to hire smart people and tell them what to do. We hire smart people so they can tell us what to do. So you're goddamn right. I'm all in on these people. >> All right. Listen, I don't I don't hate it. I was all in on you when I met you. So, hey, you're getting torn to pieces in the in the chat. >> Thank you. I apprec I appreciate it. >> My super savage spirit says, "Michael looks like a rich bald CEO right now." >> That's not bad though, right? >> You know what? When I was when I was uh 26 years old, I made $900 for the year. Okay? And when Josh hired me, I made $36,000 for the year. So, I will take don't don't reveal my don't reveal my methods of of uh enticing people to join join >> 12 12 12 years ago. Okay. So, I will take rich bald [ __ ] all day. >> All right, dude. You're you're you're the man. We uh we're so proud of you for uh your new beautiful home and your new mudroom. And uh I got to I I got to tell you that was a that was a killer. Make the case. I got to look at that stock. Okay, mystery chart and then we're going to get out of here. Um, I forgot what I Oh, yeah. Yeah. Okay. All right. The top pain. Are these are three choice? >> I know what this is. >> No hint. Wait, you're going no hint. You're going to guess all three. >> All right. Let me just try. >> No. And don't don't Google anything. Hands down, >> dude. Hands up. My hands are >> I can't I can't see you. All I see is the charts on the screen. Okay. >> All right. This is >> Guess the trifecta. Guess the trifecta. >> Audacious. Is this the Russell 2000? The value and the growth. Sad trombone. >> No. Damn it. All right. Go ahead. >> I wanted you to do it. >> I got too ambitious. I I bit off more than I could chew. That's on me. Hand up. Hand up. >> I wanted you to do it. >> Uh, I guess you're not really him after all. I thought you were >> What is this? Give me one clip. >> It's the top pain is a sector and Okay, >> PES two and three are the two largest companies in the sector. >> Okay, >> I think you could do this. >> Okay, hold on. So, it didn't take out new highs. I don't know, man. And I'm getting nervous now. I'm a failure. I'm a loser. >> I'm watching this shot to see if anybody's going to get it. >> It's pathetic. >> No one has it. >> So, what got absolutely kneecapped in March? Well, everything did. And these are the two largest stocks. >> Yeah, the two largest stocks in the sector. And on top is the sector Spider. >> All right. Let me just I'll just go with XLY, Amazon, and Tesla. >> I'm sorry. >> All right. What is it? >> The reveal, please. John, if you please. [Music] So this is the energy energy sector XLE on top uh Exxon Mobile below it and Chevron below that. They're all the same chart. Obviously these two companies make up a huge proportion of the XLE. They all look the same. And here's my question to you. What happens when they get back to that cliff from March? >> Do they get turned away or is that the biggest breakout for energy stocks in 5 years? What do you think? What's going to happen? I really am a cop on ninny mugging. Um, let me see. Hold on, >> dude. Look at this, dude. Look what Look what's setting up here. >> I'm looking. That That chart visual is not great. Um Oh, yeah. Alltime highs. >> All right, we have individual charts. Let's just roll through them really quickly. >> Okay. Yep. Going. >> It's going right. Okay, I agree. Golden Cross and the XLE. We like it. Next chart. >> Oo, Golden Cross and Exon Mobile. >> Oh man, I got to I should buy this. >> About to take out overhead resistance. This is the one I The next one I actually own. Chevron. I'm long >> size better. >> CVX. Yeah, but look at this gap fill coming up. It's gonna happen. It's gonna happen. We're going to go We're going to 170 on Chevron. >> Uh massive massive golden cross happened here about a month ago and this stock just will not look back. I think uh I think they could all work. They should all work together if they're going to work. >> Looks great. >> I'm dying to see what happens at that March cliff. I c like I can't wait. I'm anticipating that happening sometime around year end. >> Well, this is Harry [ __ ] >> Little you remember that little Exxon. All right, guys. Thank you so much for watching. I know we went a little long tonight, but it's only because we love you so much. Uh really appreciate all the shout outs in the chat. Make sure you follow the channel for God's sake. If you want the trucker hat, go to idonshop.com while supplies last. And I can't guarantee that. So hurry up and we'll talk to you soon. [Music]