Gold Investment Strategy: The podcast discusses the current bullish fundamentals for gold, emphasizing the need for a hedged strategy to manage potential downside risks while maintaining upside potential.
Market Outlook: Despite the overbought nature of the current market, the hosts suggest that the stock market could continue to rise due to the early stages of a secular inflation period.
Currency Insights: The US dollar is in a sideways consolidation pattern, with potential for a disruptive short-term rally due to bearish sentiment among traders.
Oil Market Analysis: Oil prices remain resilient within a trading range, with no clear trend emerging, despite geopolitical pressures and technical attempts at breakout.
Uranium Market Trends: The podcast highlights a long-term bullish outlook for uranium, noting recent price increases and the importance of the term contracting price as a key indicator.
Copper Market Signals: The discussion points out conflicting signals in copper futures charts due to tariff-related disruptions, advising caution in interpreting technical patterns.
Bond Market Trends: A clear trend of declining yields on the 10-year Treasury note is observed, with expectations of further decreases below 4% in the fourth quarter.
Transcript
[Music] This is Macrovoices, the free weekly financial podcast targeting professional finance, high- netw worth individuals, family offices, and other sophisticated investors. Macrovoices is all about the brightest minds in the world of finance and macroeconomics telling it like it is. Bullish or bearish, no holds barred. Now, here are your hosts, Eric Townsend and Patrick Szna. >> Eric, it was great to have Lynn back on the show. She's always a listener favorite. Patrick, Lynn, Alden, and quite frankly, almost every one of our other genius level macro guests seem to agree that the fundamentals for gold couldn't be better. But let's face it, disciplined investors would be challenged to justify not taking profits on an unhedged gold long after the amazing run that we've just seen. And I don't mind admitting that I'm feeling a little bit challenged myself in that regard. I don't want to abandon or even trim down the size of my long gold futures position. I agree with Lyn Alden and Luke Groman and all the other smartest guys in the room that long gold is the place to be. But this trade has run so far so fast. It needs some kind of hedge or asymmetry to it. And I'm still levered long unhedged. So, how about focusing the trade of the week on how to hedge a big long gold position? Specifically, I want to hedge the risk of a great big downside correction. I think 300 bucks down here could easily happen and it wouldn't even upset the bull story. So, I'd love to hear how to even further lever upside potential as opposed to having de to derisk here. But Patrick, obviously, you just can't justify too much leverage here with this much of an overbought market unless you've got some kind of asymmetric downside hedge. Assume for the sake of round numbers in this conversation that I've already got a long position on on a 100 troy ounces of gold. So that's about $390,000 at the price as of recording time. I want to redeploy that $390,000 to express a hedged version of my view that, hey, look, there could easily be a $300 correction here. Could happen at any time, headlines, who knows what happens. But we could also see $3,000 of upside in the next year if the world really goes to And frankly, we just had two interviews from super smart people, not selected by us, that seem to be suggesting that's the direction. Okay, Mr. Options Man, what's the trade? Listeners, you're going to find the download link for the postgame trade of the week in your research roundup email. If you don't have a research roundup email, it means that you have not yet registered at macrovoices.com. Just go to our homepage, macrovoices.com, and click on the red button over Lynn's picture saying looking for the downloads. All right, Eric, let's go a little deeper into the gold trade you described. The first thing I have to point out is that some really important parameters have to be nailed down before you even start overlaying option strategies. For example, is the downside risk we're worried about a quick air pocket or a multi-month grind lower? On the upside, while we know the longerterm potential for gold is in the thousands, what's the realistic short-term upside in the next quarter given how overbought the market is right now? Those details matter because they dictate the tenor of the hedge, the strikes you choose, and whether you can use overlays like a risk reversal to reduce the carry cost by selling some of the upside. The key point is whatever these assumptions are, they can lead to creating literally hundreds of different iterations of this hedge. Once you pin down horizon, upside expectations, tolerance for capp gains, and the carry cost, then you can engineer the exact structure. So, let's set the parameters for this illustration. The risk I'm hedging is a fourth quarter correction of 8% or roughly $300 an ounce. On the upside, I think the fourth quarter headroom is maybe another 10% about $400 an ounce from these already lofty levels. And I'll assume the core position is long bullion through the February 2026 gold futures contract on the commex. One way to structure the hedge is with a put spread risk reversal. In plain English, that means you buy a put to protect the downside, sell a lower strike put to reduce the cost, and finance the rest by selling an upside call. The result is cheaper carry defined by protection between the two put strikes with respectable upside before it's capped 10% higher. Now, here's the overlay I'd run. Now, if you want to follow along, I clearly broke down the numbers on the trade on page three of the downloadable slide deck. So, step one, we buy the $3,800 put and sell the $3600 put. That put spread costs about $47 an ounce. Now, step two, we finance most of that cost by selling the $4,300 call, which is roughly $400 higher from the current spot prices for a credit of $31 an ounce. The result, the net cost is about $16 an ounce instead of $69 for an outright put. Now, on a $390,000 gold position, like you alluded to, that works out to about a $1,600 premium. Now, what do you get? Well, between the 3,800 down to $3600 level, you've boxed in $200 of downside protection, enough to neutralize most of the likely drawd down. Now below 3600, you're unhedged again, but then you've already softened the volatility pain. On the upside, you are fully long up to $4,300 or 10% higher. And only beyond that do you give up your gains. And remember that the cap only applies to the remainder of the fourth quarter of this year. So, the beauty of this structure is I've meaningfully muted the downside, left plenty of room for the trade to keep working, and I've done it at a fraction of the carry cost of an outright hedge. That's the type of risk controlled overlay highly leveraged traders use to stay in high conviction trades without bleeding premium. Now, if paying about $16 an ounce for peace of mind over the remainder of the year makes sense to you, this certainly is a structure worth considering. At the same time, if the capped upside is a turnoff, you can always just run the $3,800 to $3,600 put spread on its own. It costs about $47 an ounce, but leaves all of the upside open. So, the choice is simple. ultra low cost with a cap or a higher premium with no limits. That explanation worked for the pros and of course our retail audience can get the full briefing by attending Patrick's Monday webinar which always dissects the trade of the week in detail. Macrovoic's listeners can get a free trial at bigpicturtrading.com. Now Patrick warned you last week that Big Picture Trading's prices were going up on October 1st. But when I realized after listening to that show that these guys were more than doubling their prices one day before our 500th episode, um I gave Patrick a call and pushed back a little bit and said, "Patrick, um how about if we extend that through the weekend so you don't screw up the 500th episode?" So, uh after a little bit of pressure, it is now possible to subscribe to Big Picture Trading for less than half of the new price that already took effect on October 1st. But that's only if you go to bigpicturetrading.commacrovoices and that expires Sunday, October 5th. That is the absolute last chance to get the old pricing and they are basically I more than doubling it. So if you like big picture trading and you don't want to miss the trade, now is the time. >> All right, Eric, let's move on to the chart deck. What are your thoughts here on the equity markets? >> Well, everybody who's anybody has been calling for a top. After all, the S&P is now more than 10 times the 666 low that we saw in 2009 in the wake of the great financial crisis. And the market just keeps climbing that wall of worry and shrugging off all those bullish arguments. In my experience, these things always go longer, go higher, last longer, take more time than anyone thought possible, and then they suddenly end when nobody expects it. Look, we're not in the nobody expects it stage. We're still in the most people expecting it or lots of people expecting it. They're hedging because they're hedged. It basically can't happen. So, I think market probably continues higher from here. I definitely think the bare arguments are real. They're going to be proven real someday. Could get really ugly, but who knows? We could go another thousand points higher before we actually get that great big correction or bare market. Now, I know that sounds crazy, but remember, we're at the beginning of a secular inflation. At the beginning of secular inflations, the stock market always overperforms incredibly well. Everybody thinks it's a great sign of the economy improving and everything's going to be wonderful. It's really just inflation and the feedback loops that are really bad for the stock market haven't kicked in yet. So, I think that's most likely what's driving this. As far as what happens next, though, I'm not sure. Well, Eric, there's no denying that the bulls remain decisively in control of this trend. Now, I've been saying episode after episode that this has been uh not only the longest uh rally that we've had with out a 5% correction this decade, but also the largest in magnitude that we've had without a 5% correction. Now, by either of those two metrics, that in itself doesn't guarantee a correction, but this market is definitely in the 100th percentile on that metric. Now, at some point, a correction will happen, but what has been amazing is that this market is completely resilient. so far to bad news. It continues to climb a wall of worry. Inevitably, something will break this market, but there is zero sign of it right now. Not even the government shutdown or anything like this seems to be rattling these markets. It'll be very interesting to see what ultimately will be that news that comes out of left field that kind of surprises the markets to begin a correction, but right now there is zero sign of that. All right, let's move on to the dollar. Well, there's lots of bottom callers emerging saying it's the time to buy the dollar. Surely, it can't go lower than this. But all I see on the chart is a perfectly normal sideways consolidation pattern, and it's right in the middle of its trading range. Nothing to see here until we get a breakout below 96 or above 100. Well, Eric, the dollar has clearly found a new fair value zone. We tested this 97 level once in April. We tested it again in June and we've been stuck in this trade range ever since. Now the primary downtrend is intact if just measured by something like a moving average. But the sideways trade range is simply a reflection the fact that there is a lot of confusion in the different crossurrencies. Some of them the US dollar is rallying against others the US dollar is weakening against leaving an index like this to be stuck in this muddle. At some point the US dollar will show its hand and that's going to be an important technical event. Now when I think of it from a pain trade perspective there is a decisive amount of traders that are outright bearish the dollar and rightfully so. There's a lot of macro reasons behind that. But when you think about what have been the best performing assets including emerging markets throughout the 2025 year thinking of it from a pain trade perspective a short-term US dollar rally would be incredibly disruptive to so many different trends. So will we see this kind of a pain trade emerge in the dollar or will simply the dollar bears prevail and the macro drivers the next leg down? It is certainly the puzzle to solve. Right now, we are in the dead center of this trade range, and there's no real high conviction call to be made here. Now, Eric, let's move on to crude oil. As of recording time, we're still holding the September 5th low print right around 6150, but just barely. Trump wants lower oil prices and isn't afraid to play hard ball to get them. Now, I don't know exactly what's going to happen, but I think there's plenty of room for Trump to uh push his way, at least in the short term. I think ultimately we see much higher oil prices, as Anest Alhaji recently described. I think that that's clearly where we have to get to, but maybe we're going to push the prices down before we start the war or something like that. I'm not sure. Let's see how it plays out. Well, there was a technical attempt to break out and I always like to tell my members that one day doesn't make a new trend. When that breakout towards $66 happened, almost immediately we faded right back down to the bottom end of the range of the summer. Now, this uh in itself signifies that this was a technical false start and really that there is no bull trend to be found here. But at the same time doesn't mean that oil is going to be bearish. Over the summer, oil's been incredibly resilient to bad news and has held the line in the 60s some odd dollar range uh relentlessly for months. This leaves uh oil very similar to the dollar in a big muddle basically with no conviction showing neither a trend to weaken nor a bull breakout. At some stage we're going to get a trend move and technically it will be impossible to miss. We'll we'll definitely make the call when that happens, but right now once again, you just have to assume that this trade range will continue to prevail, at least over the short term. Now, Eric, let's touch on gold. Well, you basically heard my view embedded in my question for Patrick in the trade of the week. That view is that no professional investor, including me, could possibly justify holding as overweight of a gold position as I currently have uh in the market that's this overbought. You just can't call yourself a responsible, disciplined investor if you're doing that. So, the solution, as far as I'm concerned, is not to derisk because I think this could still have a long way to go. I think it's time to re-risk into an asymmetric hedged position. And I loved Patrick's trade of the week analysis for how to do exactly that. Well, Eric, the measured moves on gold here are still up towards the $4,000 an ounce. Well, some short-term upside uh remains the path of lease resistance and there every single dip has been bought. There is no sign uh that uh there and some sort of profit taking or short-term distribution cycle has begun. So, you have to respect that this prevailing trend is intact. Um but the like you were suggesting the asymmetry on the short term over the next few months is at neutral at best where the upside potential is probably equal to the immediate downside correction risk. Uh, and so to me, any new trades put on gold here do need to be done with some sort of an option strategy that creates either convexity and or some sort of a a payoff structure that is asymmetric in the way it's constructed. Now, Eric, that uranium run's been going since April. What's your thoughts here on how this is playing out? I remain uber bullish long-term, medium-term, of course, short-term is a little bit hard to call when we're this overbought. The thing that's a really, really important signal that most people will miss this week. Don't miss it. The long-term contracting price, the term price, that's the one that counts. Remember, the spot price is not where most of the action is in the uranium market. The problem is the spot price is the one that gets reported every day. Term data only comes out once a month. Term is finally moving higher after a 15-month plateau between $80 and $81. The one big problem is massively overbought technicals. Now, it looks like we'll shake those overbought technicals off with the sideways consolidation again before the next move up. I don't mind waiting. I'm still counting my gains from the last surge. Now, Eric, there's two things I want to highlight. First of all, we want to split up uh uranium versus that of uranium equities because when we're looking at the prices of uranium strengthening here and we look at things like the spat physical trust uh unit, you know, they are in the early stages of turning up and starting to reflect higher demand uh for uranium and the prices are improving. But when we take a look at those uranium equities, they've just had an epic half-year run where almost all of them have doubled in their value. Th this is a little bit more of an overbought condition. We're already seeing a little bit of resistance where as uh we see advances or rallies in these, they're immediately met with a little bit of selling. That in itself is not a reversal pattern nor an indication that this impulse is done. Obviously, the long-term fundamentals remain incredibly strong and a great story, but some profit taking will happen. as we already seen the beginning of it. To me, the primary bull trend is still intact and there could be one or two more bull impulses to the upside. We'll be looking for signs where u there's momentum loss or something that's pivoting the price action or heavy resistance starting to form. But that might take the whole month of October to really start emerging. Now, Eric, copper's been moving. Let's uh let's have a chat about this. Patrick, the glaring pattern on the HGZ5, that's the US copper futures chart, the one that got whipsawed by Trump and Bessant, uh, in all of the back and forth on tariff policy. Uh that that is basically showing an impending 5200 death cross which would be hard to avoid even if market's looking pretty darn strong right now but it would have to be a whole lot stronger in order to prevent the 50 from crossing down below the 200 which of course is known as a death cross. Patrick, uh, this is above my technical analysis pay grade because, you know, if this chart death crosses, the popular wisdom is, well, that's a super bearish signal. But look, I don't think the LME copper's chart would show any such pattern or anything close to it. The ugly pattern is on the HG chart, and it's because that chart is collateral damage from the tariff turmoil. Patrick, how should investors interpret a situation like this when you got two different charts for the same thing showing opposite indications? just because one got whipsawed by tariffs and one didn't. >> Eric, you're absolutely right in observing the Trump tariff turmoil and its impact on the charts. Usually, as a technical analyst, you want to be able to look at a chart that is demonstrating proper flows, something that is showing the way investors are voting with their money. The problem with the copper chart on the ComX is that we went through a substantial gap higher and a devastating gap lower driven by short-term headline news as tariffs on tariffs off scenario which really disrupts the charts price action making it very challenging to uh give any validity to something like a moving average crossover. Therefore, I would put a lot less waiting on it. In general, a death cross, one of the skepticisms is simply that both the 200 and the 50-day moving averages are such lagards that by the time you have a meaningful crossover, the the embedded trend that's been in place to create the crossover is quite oversold and often you can get caught in some violent retracements when the signal arises. Generally, I think it is a good signal that depicts major bull and bare market cycles, but I'm always suspect of using it solely as a market timing tool, like there is some edge in starting to execute your trades when the actual crossovers are happening themselves. The observation I want to really highlight is that when we go to look at the LME futures in copper in London, we have them breaking to a one-year high, very clearly bullish at this moment. So I would be very suspect of this copper signal and I would focus a lot on actually whether or not copper continues to show new signs of accumulation because definitely ever since that Freeport McMoran event, copper has been very well accumulated and making key advances and so I'm actually looking to fade that signal at this point and seeing whether this trend can actually persist. Patrick, before we wrap up, let's hit that 10-year Treasury note chart. What we have literally seen is that at the start of the year in January we peaked out with yields near 480 and uh since then yields have been deteriorating down to 4% and even this little rally or bump that we saw in the post FOMC that saw almost 20 basis points pop on the upside faded at a Fibonacci zone and is already rolling over. Uh overall, I think the pattern of lower yields on the 10-year is a very clear trend and uh no reason to believe it's uh being disrupted and or having reversed. I would still think that there's a very reasonable chance here that we're going to see a trip under 4% on the 10-year here uh in this fourth quarter. And that's uh what I'm going to be continuing to trade looking uh for that breakdown. Folks, if you enjoy Patrick's chart decks, you can get them every single day of the week with a free trial of Big Picture Trading. The details are on the last pages of the slide deck, or just go to bigpicturetrading.com. But if you want Big Picture Trading for less than half of their new prices, your last chance to sign up is Sunday, October 5th. So act now or miss the trade. The only way to get the old price is to use the link bigpicturtrading.com/macrovoices. That concludes this edition of Macrovoices. Be sure to tune in each week to hear feature interviews with the brightest minds in finance and macroeconomics. Macrovoices is made possible by sponsorship from bigpicturrading.com, the internet's premier source of online education for traders. Please visit bigpicturetrading.com for more information. Please register your free account at macrovoices.com. Once registered, you'll receive our free weekly research roundup email containing links to supporting documents from our featured guests and the very best free financial content our volunteer research team could find on the internet each week. You'll also gain access to our free listener discussion forums and research library. And the more registered users we have, the more we'll be able to recruit high-profile feature interview guests for future programs. So, please register your free account today at macrovoices.com if you haven't already. You can subscribe to Macrovoices on iTunes to have Macrovoices automatically delivered to your mobile device each week free of charge. You can email questions for the program to mailbag@macrovoices.com and we'll answer your questions on the air from time to time in our mailbag segment. Macrovoices is presented forformational and entertainment purposes only. The information presented on macrovoices should not be construed as investment advice. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making investment decisions. The views and opinions expressed on Macrovoices are those of the participants and do not necessarily reflect those of the show's hosts or sponsors. Macrovoices, its producers, sponsors, and hosts Eric Townsend and Patrick Serezna shall not be liable for losses resulting from investment decisions based on information or viewpoints presented on Macrovoices. Macrovoices is made possible by sponsorship from bigpicturtrading.com and by funding from fourth turning capital management LLC. For more information, visit macrovoices.com. [Music]
Trade of The Week – MacroVoices #500
Summary
Transcript
[Music] This is Macrovoices, the free weekly financial podcast targeting professional finance, high- netw worth individuals, family offices, and other sophisticated investors. Macrovoices is all about the brightest minds in the world of finance and macroeconomics telling it like it is. Bullish or bearish, no holds barred. Now, here are your hosts, Eric Townsend and Patrick Szna. >> Eric, it was great to have Lynn back on the show. She's always a listener favorite. Patrick, Lynn, Alden, and quite frankly, almost every one of our other genius level macro guests seem to agree that the fundamentals for gold couldn't be better. But let's face it, disciplined investors would be challenged to justify not taking profits on an unhedged gold long after the amazing run that we've just seen. And I don't mind admitting that I'm feeling a little bit challenged myself in that regard. I don't want to abandon or even trim down the size of my long gold futures position. I agree with Lyn Alden and Luke Groman and all the other smartest guys in the room that long gold is the place to be. But this trade has run so far so fast. It needs some kind of hedge or asymmetry to it. And I'm still levered long unhedged. So, how about focusing the trade of the week on how to hedge a big long gold position? Specifically, I want to hedge the risk of a great big downside correction. I think 300 bucks down here could easily happen and it wouldn't even upset the bull story. So, I'd love to hear how to even further lever upside potential as opposed to having de to derisk here. But Patrick, obviously, you just can't justify too much leverage here with this much of an overbought market unless you've got some kind of asymmetric downside hedge. Assume for the sake of round numbers in this conversation that I've already got a long position on on a 100 troy ounces of gold. So that's about $390,000 at the price as of recording time. I want to redeploy that $390,000 to express a hedged version of my view that, hey, look, there could easily be a $300 correction here. Could happen at any time, headlines, who knows what happens. But we could also see $3,000 of upside in the next year if the world really goes to And frankly, we just had two interviews from super smart people, not selected by us, that seem to be suggesting that's the direction. Okay, Mr. Options Man, what's the trade? Listeners, you're going to find the download link for the postgame trade of the week in your research roundup email. If you don't have a research roundup email, it means that you have not yet registered at macrovoices.com. Just go to our homepage, macrovoices.com, and click on the red button over Lynn's picture saying looking for the downloads. All right, Eric, let's go a little deeper into the gold trade you described. The first thing I have to point out is that some really important parameters have to be nailed down before you even start overlaying option strategies. For example, is the downside risk we're worried about a quick air pocket or a multi-month grind lower? On the upside, while we know the longerterm potential for gold is in the thousands, what's the realistic short-term upside in the next quarter given how overbought the market is right now? Those details matter because they dictate the tenor of the hedge, the strikes you choose, and whether you can use overlays like a risk reversal to reduce the carry cost by selling some of the upside. The key point is whatever these assumptions are, they can lead to creating literally hundreds of different iterations of this hedge. Once you pin down horizon, upside expectations, tolerance for capp gains, and the carry cost, then you can engineer the exact structure. So, let's set the parameters for this illustration. The risk I'm hedging is a fourth quarter correction of 8% or roughly $300 an ounce. On the upside, I think the fourth quarter headroom is maybe another 10% about $400 an ounce from these already lofty levels. And I'll assume the core position is long bullion through the February 2026 gold futures contract on the commex. One way to structure the hedge is with a put spread risk reversal. In plain English, that means you buy a put to protect the downside, sell a lower strike put to reduce the cost, and finance the rest by selling an upside call. The result is cheaper carry defined by protection between the two put strikes with respectable upside before it's capped 10% higher. Now, here's the overlay I'd run. Now, if you want to follow along, I clearly broke down the numbers on the trade on page three of the downloadable slide deck. So, step one, we buy the $3,800 put and sell the $3600 put. That put spread costs about $47 an ounce. Now, step two, we finance most of that cost by selling the $4,300 call, which is roughly $400 higher from the current spot prices for a credit of $31 an ounce. The result, the net cost is about $16 an ounce instead of $69 for an outright put. Now, on a $390,000 gold position, like you alluded to, that works out to about a $1,600 premium. Now, what do you get? Well, between the 3,800 down to $3600 level, you've boxed in $200 of downside protection, enough to neutralize most of the likely drawd down. Now below 3600, you're unhedged again, but then you've already softened the volatility pain. On the upside, you are fully long up to $4,300 or 10% higher. And only beyond that do you give up your gains. And remember that the cap only applies to the remainder of the fourth quarter of this year. So, the beauty of this structure is I've meaningfully muted the downside, left plenty of room for the trade to keep working, and I've done it at a fraction of the carry cost of an outright hedge. That's the type of risk controlled overlay highly leveraged traders use to stay in high conviction trades without bleeding premium. Now, if paying about $16 an ounce for peace of mind over the remainder of the year makes sense to you, this certainly is a structure worth considering. At the same time, if the capped upside is a turnoff, you can always just run the $3,800 to $3,600 put spread on its own. It costs about $47 an ounce, but leaves all of the upside open. So, the choice is simple. ultra low cost with a cap or a higher premium with no limits. That explanation worked for the pros and of course our retail audience can get the full briefing by attending Patrick's Monday webinar which always dissects the trade of the week in detail. Macrovoic's listeners can get a free trial at bigpicturtrading.com. Now Patrick warned you last week that Big Picture Trading's prices were going up on October 1st. But when I realized after listening to that show that these guys were more than doubling their prices one day before our 500th episode, um I gave Patrick a call and pushed back a little bit and said, "Patrick, um how about if we extend that through the weekend so you don't screw up the 500th episode?" So, uh after a little bit of pressure, it is now possible to subscribe to Big Picture Trading for less than half of the new price that already took effect on October 1st. But that's only if you go to bigpicturetrading.commacrovoices and that expires Sunday, October 5th. That is the absolute last chance to get the old pricing and they are basically I more than doubling it. So if you like big picture trading and you don't want to miss the trade, now is the time. >> All right, Eric, let's move on to the chart deck. What are your thoughts here on the equity markets? >> Well, everybody who's anybody has been calling for a top. After all, the S&P is now more than 10 times the 666 low that we saw in 2009 in the wake of the great financial crisis. And the market just keeps climbing that wall of worry and shrugging off all those bullish arguments. In my experience, these things always go longer, go higher, last longer, take more time than anyone thought possible, and then they suddenly end when nobody expects it. Look, we're not in the nobody expects it stage. We're still in the most people expecting it or lots of people expecting it. They're hedging because they're hedged. It basically can't happen. So, I think market probably continues higher from here. I definitely think the bare arguments are real. They're going to be proven real someday. Could get really ugly, but who knows? We could go another thousand points higher before we actually get that great big correction or bare market. Now, I know that sounds crazy, but remember, we're at the beginning of a secular inflation. At the beginning of secular inflations, the stock market always overperforms incredibly well. Everybody thinks it's a great sign of the economy improving and everything's going to be wonderful. It's really just inflation and the feedback loops that are really bad for the stock market haven't kicked in yet. So, I think that's most likely what's driving this. As far as what happens next, though, I'm not sure. Well, Eric, there's no denying that the bulls remain decisively in control of this trend. Now, I've been saying episode after episode that this has been uh not only the longest uh rally that we've had with out a 5% correction this decade, but also the largest in magnitude that we've had without a 5% correction. Now, by either of those two metrics, that in itself doesn't guarantee a correction, but this market is definitely in the 100th percentile on that metric. Now, at some point, a correction will happen, but what has been amazing is that this market is completely resilient. so far to bad news. It continues to climb a wall of worry. Inevitably, something will break this market, but there is zero sign of it right now. Not even the government shutdown or anything like this seems to be rattling these markets. It'll be very interesting to see what ultimately will be that news that comes out of left field that kind of surprises the markets to begin a correction, but right now there is zero sign of that. All right, let's move on to the dollar. Well, there's lots of bottom callers emerging saying it's the time to buy the dollar. Surely, it can't go lower than this. But all I see on the chart is a perfectly normal sideways consolidation pattern, and it's right in the middle of its trading range. Nothing to see here until we get a breakout below 96 or above 100. Well, Eric, the dollar has clearly found a new fair value zone. We tested this 97 level once in April. We tested it again in June and we've been stuck in this trade range ever since. Now the primary downtrend is intact if just measured by something like a moving average. But the sideways trade range is simply a reflection the fact that there is a lot of confusion in the different crossurrencies. Some of them the US dollar is rallying against others the US dollar is weakening against leaving an index like this to be stuck in this muddle. At some point the US dollar will show its hand and that's going to be an important technical event. Now when I think of it from a pain trade perspective there is a decisive amount of traders that are outright bearish the dollar and rightfully so. There's a lot of macro reasons behind that. But when you think about what have been the best performing assets including emerging markets throughout the 2025 year thinking of it from a pain trade perspective a short-term US dollar rally would be incredibly disruptive to so many different trends. So will we see this kind of a pain trade emerge in the dollar or will simply the dollar bears prevail and the macro drivers the next leg down? It is certainly the puzzle to solve. Right now, we are in the dead center of this trade range, and there's no real high conviction call to be made here. Now, Eric, let's move on to crude oil. As of recording time, we're still holding the September 5th low print right around 6150, but just barely. Trump wants lower oil prices and isn't afraid to play hard ball to get them. Now, I don't know exactly what's going to happen, but I think there's plenty of room for Trump to uh push his way, at least in the short term. I think ultimately we see much higher oil prices, as Anest Alhaji recently described. I think that that's clearly where we have to get to, but maybe we're going to push the prices down before we start the war or something like that. I'm not sure. Let's see how it plays out. Well, there was a technical attempt to break out and I always like to tell my members that one day doesn't make a new trend. When that breakout towards $66 happened, almost immediately we faded right back down to the bottom end of the range of the summer. Now, this uh in itself signifies that this was a technical false start and really that there is no bull trend to be found here. But at the same time doesn't mean that oil is going to be bearish. Over the summer, oil's been incredibly resilient to bad news and has held the line in the 60s some odd dollar range uh relentlessly for months. This leaves uh oil very similar to the dollar in a big muddle basically with no conviction showing neither a trend to weaken nor a bull breakout. At some stage we're going to get a trend move and technically it will be impossible to miss. We'll we'll definitely make the call when that happens, but right now once again, you just have to assume that this trade range will continue to prevail, at least over the short term. Now, Eric, let's touch on gold. Well, you basically heard my view embedded in my question for Patrick in the trade of the week. That view is that no professional investor, including me, could possibly justify holding as overweight of a gold position as I currently have uh in the market that's this overbought. You just can't call yourself a responsible, disciplined investor if you're doing that. So, the solution, as far as I'm concerned, is not to derisk because I think this could still have a long way to go. I think it's time to re-risk into an asymmetric hedged position. And I loved Patrick's trade of the week analysis for how to do exactly that. Well, Eric, the measured moves on gold here are still up towards the $4,000 an ounce. Well, some short-term upside uh remains the path of lease resistance and there every single dip has been bought. There is no sign uh that uh there and some sort of profit taking or short-term distribution cycle has begun. So, you have to respect that this prevailing trend is intact. Um but the like you were suggesting the asymmetry on the short term over the next few months is at neutral at best where the upside potential is probably equal to the immediate downside correction risk. Uh, and so to me, any new trades put on gold here do need to be done with some sort of an option strategy that creates either convexity and or some sort of a a payoff structure that is asymmetric in the way it's constructed. Now, Eric, that uranium run's been going since April. What's your thoughts here on how this is playing out? I remain uber bullish long-term, medium-term, of course, short-term is a little bit hard to call when we're this overbought. The thing that's a really, really important signal that most people will miss this week. Don't miss it. The long-term contracting price, the term price, that's the one that counts. Remember, the spot price is not where most of the action is in the uranium market. The problem is the spot price is the one that gets reported every day. Term data only comes out once a month. Term is finally moving higher after a 15-month plateau between $80 and $81. The one big problem is massively overbought technicals. Now, it looks like we'll shake those overbought technicals off with the sideways consolidation again before the next move up. I don't mind waiting. I'm still counting my gains from the last surge. Now, Eric, there's two things I want to highlight. First of all, we want to split up uh uranium versus that of uranium equities because when we're looking at the prices of uranium strengthening here and we look at things like the spat physical trust uh unit, you know, they are in the early stages of turning up and starting to reflect higher demand uh for uranium and the prices are improving. But when we take a look at those uranium equities, they've just had an epic half-year run where almost all of them have doubled in their value. Th this is a little bit more of an overbought condition. We're already seeing a little bit of resistance where as uh we see advances or rallies in these, they're immediately met with a little bit of selling. That in itself is not a reversal pattern nor an indication that this impulse is done. Obviously, the long-term fundamentals remain incredibly strong and a great story, but some profit taking will happen. as we already seen the beginning of it. To me, the primary bull trend is still intact and there could be one or two more bull impulses to the upside. We'll be looking for signs where u there's momentum loss or something that's pivoting the price action or heavy resistance starting to form. But that might take the whole month of October to really start emerging. Now, Eric, copper's been moving. Let's uh let's have a chat about this. Patrick, the glaring pattern on the HGZ5, that's the US copper futures chart, the one that got whipsawed by Trump and Bessant, uh, in all of the back and forth on tariff policy. Uh that that is basically showing an impending 5200 death cross which would be hard to avoid even if market's looking pretty darn strong right now but it would have to be a whole lot stronger in order to prevent the 50 from crossing down below the 200 which of course is known as a death cross. Patrick, uh, this is above my technical analysis pay grade because, you know, if this chart death crosses, the popular wisdom is, well, that's a super bearish signal. But look, I don't think the LME copper's chart would show any such pattern or anything close to it. The ugly pattern is on the HG chart, and it's because that chart is collateral damage from the tariff turmoil. Patrick, how should investors interpret a situation like this when you got two different charts for the same thing showing opposite indications? just because one got whipsawed by tariffs and one didn't. >> Eric, you're absolutely right in observing the Trump tariff turmoil and its impact on the charts. Usually, as a technical analyst, you want to be able to look at a chart that is demonstrating proper flows, something that is showing the way investors are voting with their money. The problem with the copper chart on the ComX is that we went through a substantial gap higher and a devastating gap lower driven by short-term headline news as tariffs on tariffs off scenario which really disrupts the charts price action making it very challenging to uh give any validity to something like a moving average crossover. Therefore, I would put a lot less waiting on it. In general, a death cross, one of the skepticisms is simply that both the 200 and the 50-day moving averages are such lagards that by the time you have a meaningful crossover, the the embedded trend that's been in place to create the crossover is quite oversold and often you can get caught in some violent retracements when the signal arises. Generally, I think it is a good signal that depicts major bull and bare market cycles, but I'm always suspect of using it solely as a market timing tool, like there is some edge in starting to execute your trades when the actual crossovers are happening themselves. The observation I want to really highlight is that when we go to look at the LME futures in copper in London, we have them breaking to a one-year high, very clearly bullish at this moment. So I would be very suspect of this copper signal and I would focus a lot on actually whether or not copper continues to show new signs of accumulation because definitely ever since that Freeport McMoran event, copper has been very well accumulated and making key advances and so I'm actually looking to fade that signal at this point and seeing whether this trend can actually persist. Patrick, before we wrap up, let's hit that 10-year Treasury note chart. What we have literally seen is that at the start of the year in January we peaked out with yields near 480 and uh since then yields have been deteriorating down to 4% and even this little rally or bump that we saw in the post FOMC that saw almost 20 basis points pop on the upside faded at a Fibonacci zone and is already rolling over. Uh overall, I think the pattern of lower yields on the 10-year is a very clear trend and uh no reason to believe it's uh being disrupted and or having reversed. I would still think that there's a very reasonable chance here that we're going to see a trip under 4% on the 10-year here uh in this fourth quarter. And that's uh what I'm going to be continuing to trade looking uh for that breakdown. Folks, if you enjoy Patrick's chart decks, you can get them every single day of the week with a free trial of Big Picture Trading. The details are on the last pages of the slide deck, or just go to bigpicturetrading.com. But if you want Big Picture Trading for less than half of their new prices, your last chance to sign up is Sunday, October 5th. So act now or miss the trade. The only way to get the old price is to use the link bigpicturtrading.com/macrovoices. That concludes this edition of Macrovoices. 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