GOLD: Wall Street Is Going All In, Road to $20k I Peter Schiff
Summary
Gold Market Surge: Gold is experiencing a significant rally, trading close to $3,850 per ounce, driven by its monetary properties and increased demand from foreign central banks.
US Economic Concerns: Peter Schiff expresses skepticism about US GDP growth figures, attributing reported growth to inflation rather than real economic expansion, and criticizes reliance on government data for long-term investment decisions.
Federal Reserve Policies: Schiff argues that recent Fed rate cuts indicate economic weakness, and he predicts that further monetary easing will exacerbate inflation rather than stimulate growth.
Government Shutdown Impact: The potential US government shutdown is viewed as political theater with minimal real impact, while the underlying issues of excessive government spending and deficits remain unaddressed.
Investment Strategy Shift: Wall Street is beginning to adjust traditional portfolios, with firms like Morgan Stanley recommending increased gold allocations, signaling a shift from bonds to gold as a hedge against inflation.
Gold vs. Bitcoin: Schiff anticipates a shift of investment from Bitcoin back to gold, as gold's performance outpaces Bitcoin, and investors seek stability amid economic uncertainty.
Gold Mining Stocks: With gold prices rising, gold mining stocks are expected to see significant gains, as Wall Street and investors recognize their potential for substantial earnings growth.
Global Economic Outlook: Schiff warns of a potential decline in the US standard of living due to the de-dollarization trend, as global markets move away from reliance on the US dollar.
Transcript
Gold is rallying from record high to record high. As we record this, gold is trading at 38.50 per ounce. Silver is around $46, $47. And there are some headwinds looming potentially. The US government shutdown could have some ramifications, but also GDP growth, economic growth, not just in the US, but globally. I've invited Peter Schiff. He's with a Europac or Europe Pacific Asset Management and of course a recurring guest on this channel. I don't think he needs a lot of introduction, but I'll ask him those questions like what what does it mean? What where is gold headed? Where's the economy headed? And what is what is his opinion on the government shutdown? Is it going to have any impact whatsoever on what we're usually talking about here on our channel? But before I switch over to my guest, hit that like and subscribe button. It helps us out tremendously and we much much appreciate it. Did I mention that it's free as well? Doesn't cost you a thing. So, thank you so much for doing that. Now, Peter, it is great to welcome you back on the program. Thanks so much for joining me. Well, thanks a lot, Kai, for having me back on. >> Yeah, really looking forward to the discussion. I I just, you know, threw the topics at you already and I think we're going to have a blast discussing those and dissecting future mistakes to be made here. Um, Peter, let's start with the economy before we talk about government shutdown, but uh GDP growth at 3.8% last quarter. What do you make of that number? It's the highest within the G7, the G10. Like, what what do you what do you make of it? Yeah, I don't put a lot of stock in government numbers and you know they often have a tendency to get revised uh many quarters or even years later. So they're not not reliable. Plus I think that in the GDP numbers in particular, I think that the way they measure inflation with the GDP deflator uh doesn't nearly capture all of the inflation. And so a lot of what's reported as growth is actually inflation. And and so I think one of the reasons that the GDP is as high as it is is because we're not deflating it enough. I think most of that so-called economic growth is just inflation. And so they're able to uh disguise that inflation as growth by under reportporting it. Yeah, it's it's an interesting one because we all rely on on that government data to make decisions because I don't think you >> I don't think but my point is though like we we don't walk from house to house and raise that data for example we don't collect it right so we do have to rely on certain indicators the question is what how do we interpret it I think that's the question we don't collect it but we we have to interpret it >> yeah yeah never base your investments on what the government tells you I mean if you're a short-term trader and you're going to trade on these numbers. I mean, sure, you know, but as far as knowing what to do long run with your money, uh the government is probably your least reliable source of information other than as a contrarian indicator. I mean, there's some uh benefit to that. Just whatever the government tells you, you know, you kind of do the opposite. Good, good point. Really good point. Um, you know, the question why I ask you about the GDP and the GDP growth number is just really to get an understanding of what you think how the US economy is doing because we've just seen a Fed rate cut and you usually don't do that when the economy is humming. Um, would would you agree? >> Well, well, I agree that the economy is weak. Uh, and I think it's going to get weaker. And I think, you know, Donald Trump is out there saying we have the hottest economy in the world. It's the strongest economy ever. Yet, he's demanding massive rate cuts. Uh and so those two are inconsistent, right? If we really have such a great economy, why is it so important that we get these massive rate cuts? Uh but I don't think the rate cuts are going to strengthen the economy. I think they'll strengthen inflation. Uh which will weaken the economy. I think that's the box that we're now in. uh because I think anything the Fed does on on a interest rate basis or quantitative easing which I think is our next uh you know the next policy but I I think it's actually going to undermine the economy even more. So I think their stimulus their stimulus is going to act more like a sedative because I think the the impact is going to be higher uh consumer prices and higher long-term interest rates which will actually weigh the economy down. it won't you know stimulate it. >> Coming coming back to some some data the government the Fed is sharing with us and that's one of their dot plots and their summary of economic projections which is always entertaining to read because they're expecting the unemployment rate to come down again in the coming years. Where do you think they come up with those numbers? 4.3% is the forecast for 2027. I I question from a really pragmatic approach. Where's that growth supposed to come from? >> Look, I I don't think they have any clue. I think they just pull the numbers out of their ass. You know, I I you know, in fact, there was in the last press conference, somebody asked uh Powell, you know, hey, you've got a projection for inflation coming down to 2% in two years. Two years ago, you had the same forecast that we have 2% inflation in two years. Well, you know, we're obviously not there. You know, why do you think that, you know, this conf, you know, forecast will be any more accurate than than the last one? And his answer was like, well, you know, we just kind of forecast 2% inflation in two years because that's our goal. That's our target. And so, you know, we want to forecast our target. So, in other words, there there's no methodology. It's just wishful thinking. And I think the same thing applies to unemployment. They want the unemployment rate to go down. They want to pretend that their policies are going to help bring it down. So, I think their long-term forecast is always going to be for unemployment lower than it is at the moment. You know, because if they were if they were forecasting unemployment to go up, that would be a big problem. Somebody would say, "Hey, why aren't you doing something about that?" I mean, what if they said, "Yeah, we think unemployment will be at, you know, 6% in two years, right? How are they supposed to have a forecast like that?" Uh, so I I I just think none of these forecasts are actual forecasts. It's what they hope will happen. And so they put it in their forecast because that's what they are hoping for. >> Yeah. No, I agree. It was Mike McKe from from Bloomberg who asked that question. I had to chuckle when I saw that as well. So because I was watching the press conference. So that that was entertaining because I couldn't make rhyme of it. I was like, okay, why this why all of a sudden should the unemployment rate decrease? It doesn't make any sense uh in that. >> How do they even know? How the hell do they know what the unemployment rate's going to be? I mean, there's so many variables that might go into determining what the unemployment is. How the hell are these guys supposed to know? >> Yeah. Well, and we get a new head of the BLS any any day now, which might which might change course completely as well or who might change course completely as well. Um, Peter, like government shutdown is another topic I want to discuss and it's sort of the segue from from the Fed over to the government because the the Fed relies on government data and if we do get a shutdown tonight um and they don't come up with a solution to their budget problem, which they probably won't here, that's what the market is expecting. But uh but what are the ramifications of a government shutdown? Let's start high level here. >> Well, first of all, they're never going to solve the the fiscal problems. So the shutdown's got nothing to do with that. But look, I mean, it's all a charade. How many government shutdowns have we had, you know, yet the government is still here, you know? I mean, I could get my arms around a real government shutdown where they actually shut down the government. But but they don't they they don't shut it down. You know what they do? They shut down the national parks and they make a big deal. Oh, these people went to Yusede and they couldn't get in. You know, but most of the government is still operating. You know, it's not like all the rules and regulations are are somehow on pause. I don't I you know, they still take taxes out of your pay. You know, you don't get a break on the income tax or the social security tax because the government is shut down. No, the government is still there, you know, ruining your life, making, you know, making you have to work a lot harder. So, they're they're never real shutdowns. They're just uh for show. They shut down certain things. And of course, they they furlow all the a bunch of the government employees who love a government shutdown because they get paid. They just don't have to show up and go to work. Now, you know, I just assume the government workers not go go to work because usually whatever they're doing is screwing us up. You know, it's probably better if they stay home even though we pay them because they're doing less damage if they're if they're if they're not at work. But look, it's all a political theater. You know, the real problem with the government shutdowns is A, they don't shut down enough, and B, at the end of the day, they always reopen government back up, so we're stuck with it. So, I don't really pay much attention to it. Um, I think there's much bigger problems than this, the shutdown. The problems are the massive government spending, uh the huge deficits, the fact that now you have uh the president trying to hijack the Federal Reserve and stack it with a bunch of cronies to remove even a pretense of Fed independence. Um, and then you have, you know, Donald Trump, you know, shaking down private companies, uh, extracting concessions, uh, taking stakes, micromanaging the United States as if it was his own private company, right? Uh, this is all part of Trump enterprises. Uh, I think this is a horrible approach to government. I think it sets a lot of dangerous precedents for future presidents to abuse the powers that Trump is usurping. Uh, I really hope the courts uh put a stop to what's going on. Um, but you know, you mentioned gold's at 3,850. I mean, that's $150 less than $4,000. I mean, think about that. $150 and we're at $4,000 gold. Um, this is not something that should be dismissed. you know, when the price of gold is doing this, you know, it's not like it's, you know, the pl the price of cheese, you know, you or or something like that, you know, or you lumber or or soybeans, you know, because this is not about, oh, we got a bad crop, you know, there was some there was a drought, you know, there was a flood or there was just a big increase in demand for, you know, corn or whatever. This is gold, right? It's not like Americans or everybody else all of a sudden wants a lot more jewelry, right? There's not a run on the jewelry stores. Gold is going up because of its monetary properties. It is a monetary metal. And when gold is rising like this, it is a warning sign, right? It is the canary in the monetary coal mine. And when you see this happening, it is a warning that something bad is happening. And you know, the biggest buyers of the gold are foreign central banks. Now, don't you think they know something? I mean, they're the insiders in the monetary system, right? And they're buying gold as fast as they can. And it's really like they're selling dollars, right? If these are insiders that are dumping dollars and they're dumping treasuries and they're buying gold, why are they doing that? Why are they foregoing the yield on US treasuries to hold gold and and have no yield? Uh that tells you something. And in fact, Wall Street is finally recognizing this. A week or two ago, Morgan Stanley tweaked for the first time the 6040 portfolio. That sacrosen 60% stocks, 40% bonds. They decided to cut the bond portion in half and make it 20% bonds, 20% gold. Now, I've never seen that in my entire career. I'm 62. I started at 24 in this business as a licensed stock broker. And during all those years, um, almost almost 40, right, I'd never seen this. Um, I I was always like a lone voice in the wilderness on Wall Street telling my clients to buy physical gold. right now all of a sudden more you know wirehouse firms institutional investment banks are for the first time saying you need to sell bonds and buy some gold because you know there's a lot of inflation that you need to hedge so this idea of 2% inflation that's gone not that 2% was ever the holy grail or anything I'd rather have no inflation than 2% or I'd rather have prices go down 2% than up 2% that That's better, right? I mean, I want to buy stuff cheaper. I' I'd rather pay less, right? Uh but now it's, you know, it's going to be way more than two because the Fed is cutting rates when inflation is at 3% even the way they measure it, but it's on an upswing. So, it's headed higher yet they're cutting rates. So, that tells you that the 2% target is out the window. What's the new target? Who the hell knows, right? They they've never fessed up to one, but it's a lot higher. And so the world, I think, is ddollarizing. And I think this is a big problem for the United States because America uses the dollar as a crutch. You know, our economy um is so screwed up in a way because of the dollar status. We've been able to live beyond our means for decades. We can consume without producing and we can borrow without saving and that's made possible by the dollar reserve status. So the world is willing to manufacture goods and and let us have them for dollars and the world is willing to loan us dollars so that we can have lower interest rates and you know they're willing to buy our stocks to prop up our markets. But I think all that is going to be reversing and I think this whole uh house of cards economy is going to come toppling down and you're going to see a big increase in consumer prices and long-term interest rates in America and a very substantial decline in the standard of living uh for most Americans. >> Let's unpack in that statement there, Peter. Lots to follow up on. Maybe the let me let me follow up on the 60 2020 uh real quick. What does that mean for money flows and liquidity and just when when you go to gold? Like you cut 20% of your portfolio and move it into gold and we all know the bond market is a trillion dollar plus market. I don't have the exact number in my head here but it's a massive massive market. I think we can all agree on that. Even if just a little bit of that moves over and turns into 60 38 or 16 what is it 60 maybe 2812 or something that's already massive. like what what like what will that do to prices mining stocks in general? What do you think? >> Well, first of all, if if half of the money in bonds at Wall Street firms went into gold, who the hell knows how high the price would go, >> right? I mean, it's I mean, first of all, it's going to impact bonds. Now, the bond market is is a lot bigger than the gold market for now. You know, eventually the gold market might be bigger when the price moves up a lot more. But, you know, what what Morgan Stanley was effectively doing is putting out a sell signal on treasuries. You know, telling its customers to sell treasuries. So, that's going to have an impact if more Wall Street firms want to sell treasuries. The central banks are selling treasuries and the Treasury is selling selling treasuries like they're going out of style, which they are, but they're selling they're selling more treasuries than ever. Our deficits are trillions per year. So at a time where the US government is selling more treasuries than ever before, the buyers of treasuries don't want them. Uh that's why the Fed is going to have to buy them. The Fed right now is selling treasuries. They're still doing quantitative tightening. But I think they're going to be forced to reverse that into quantitative easing and that's going to send inflation through the roof. And I think the gold market already sees that or investors. And that's one of the reasons why they keep selling dollars and buying gold. Um, so yeah, I mean, Wall Street starting to move customers towards gold is going to be a big deal. And I think not only are they going to be moving their customers out of bonds into gold, they're going to be moving customers out of Bitcoin into gold. Because I think a lot of Wall Street, even though they haven't been big promoters, I think a lot of the discount firms that have s set up a Bitcoin ETFs, uh, they have enabled a lot of investor money to flow into Bitcoin. And I think a lot of the money that went into Bitcoin ETFs came out of gold ETFs and gold mining stocks. And I think those investors who got frustrated with gold's lackluster performance and the weakness in gold stocks and who decided to move their chips over to Bitcoin ETFs, I think next year when they look back at this year and they see that gold stocks more than doubled and Bitcoin maybe was flat to lower. I mean, it's up on the year right now, but it could dump in Q4. I think you're going to see a pretty big uh exodus of that money out of the Bitcoin ETFs back into gold and gold equities. And not only is that going to help push gold and gold equities up, but it's going to crash Bitcoin even more because a lot of the money that went into the Bitcoin ETFs ain't coming out, right? It's like a it's like a money roach motel. You could check your money in, but you can't check it out because when you try to sell, the market crashes and there's no one to sell to. No, I I get that part. Do you see a trigger looming though that that could push investors in that direction? Of course, the year-to- date performance for gold is staggering. It's close to 40%. It's the best year. We've been reading it everywhere since 1979. Q3 best quarter on record. Apparently, the superlatives are extreme. Of course, uh that that speak for gold. But what could trigger that change momentum? We've seen like the S&P investors, they they were chasing the 25% yearly uh you know, yearly gains and they still haven't really uh exited the main market, right? So, we need a trigger. I, you know, Alec, I remember in early 2024, and I was critiquing this on my podcast, but you had a couple of firms basically downgrade Pneumont and Barrack to cells. And they said that there's no more upside in gold. Gold was at 2,000. And the analysts were saying, look, gold is pretty much fully priced here. it's more likely to go down and uh and so there's no point in buying these gold stocks. And of course, since then, the price of gold has almost doubled. It's almost 4,000 now. And these mining stocks that they put sell recommendations on have more than doubled since they put sells on them. So, Wall Street did not anticipate this trade at all. And they're only now starting to get positions. and and and that's why I think this this move has got so far to go. Um I don't think there's going to be any substantial pullbacks. I mean, there'll be pullbacks for a day or two, but I don't think you're going to get, you know, 10% drops in gold or even, you know, even 3 or 4% is going to be tough, right? Because there's so much money now waiting to come in that any dip is going to get bought pretty aggressively. Um, and that's what I've been telling like my customers at Shift Gold. I just keep saying stop waiting for a pullback. You, you know, you're going to be waiting forever and then you're going to end up buying at a much higher price. Just buy. You want to buy gold, buy it. You want to buy silver, buy it. Don't get cute. Don't try to get a pullback because even if you get a pullback, chances are it won't be enough and you'll miss it. By the time you buy it, it'll be higher. So, just buy it, you know, because you what you really need to do is is you're getting out of the dollar. The dollar is a sinking ship. Uh the only uh unknown is how fast it's going to go all the way to the bottom, but we know that it's sinking. So the sooner you get off, the better. And the longer you wait, the higher the water level is going to be by the time you by the time you get off. So you just got to buy. And the same thing on these gold stocks, you know, just Yeah, they've doubled. Um, and some have tripled, you know, but if you look at where they are in relation to where they were 10, 20 years ago, a lot of them are still a lot cheaper, but gold is much higher than it was back then. It's not just that the stocks are down, the value of the gold that they own is way up. And I think the earnings on these gold mining stocks are just going to explode. I mean, no, nobody has even put a pencil to a piece of paper to determine how much money these gold companies are going to make at $4,000 goal. And of course, we're not going to stay at $4,000 goal. Next year, we'll be at $5,000 goal, maybe $6,000 goal. >> Uh, so, you know, these the these companies are just going to make a ton of money. And, you know, Wall Street is just like waking up to this. you know, I mean there is no mag seven in the gold of gold stocks, right? We don't have any anacronisms or not, you know, it's not like tech, right? Everybody is all over tech. Uh so, you know, go the gold stocks are going to are going to be, you know, like that. I mean, you know, at some point you're going to start to see uh you know, retail money coming in, you know, meme stock money and stuff like that. But, I mean, we're, you know, that's probably years away. It's the serious money that's coming in now. They missed the bottom. Uh, and the only reason I got the bottom is because I bought way early. It's like, you know, because I saw I saw this coming from a mile away. I prepared too soon. Um, but so, yeah, I caught this entire move because I was already long, but I added to my positions back in in uh the first quarter of 2024. I bought more gold stocks when they put these sell recommendations on and then I bought more gold stocks for myself uh after Trump won at the end of last year and early this year when they dumped them. They just the market they went down like 30% because everybody thought Trump was going to be so great for the economy. Hey, why do you want to own gold stocks when he's going to make the economy great? He's going to pay off the national debt and all this crap. I just bought and I was urging all my clients to just, you know, put more money in because I knew that this was a bunch of BS. And in fact, we had another opportunity right after Liberation Day. There was a an im an an initial selloff of gold and silver stocks in particular. Silver stocks got crushed. If you'd have bought Liberation Day lows, people talk about the snackback. These silver stocks have tripled off those liberation day lows. Uh so yeah, but but but I think it's still early in this trade. I mean, I think I think a lot of these gold mining stocks are going to five or 10x even from here. You know, I maybe it'll take another five years to do it or take I don't know, but that's where they're going to be because I think gold is not going to stop going up because the dollar is not going to stop going down. Uh it's not going to stop at 5,000. It's pro not going to stop at 10,000. It's it's going to go higher. I mean I mean it could go to 20,000. I mean who the hell knows? Um it certainly has a precedent. You know look at the value of the Dow in terms of gold. Um you know the Dow right now is worth 12 ounces of gold. Now it was worth 40 ounces of gold 25 years ago. So that's a 70% decline. But the Dow was worth 1 ounce of gold in 1980 and it was worth 1 ounce of gold in 1932. Now, it was worth 19 ounces of gold in 1929. So, it shows you that in just a few years, the Dow went from 19 ounces of gold to one approximately. I mean, not exact, but that shows you how much stocks can go down priced in gold. And again, by the way, the Dow is lower today than it was 96 years ago. So, all all this is a bunch of inflation, right? To say, "Oh, the Dow is 46,000. That's meaningless. Gold's 3,800. it. Gold was $20 in 1929. So, of course, the Dow is higher, but in real terms, it's lower. But I I think that at a minimum, I think the Dow is going to get down to 2 ounces of gold. That'd be my kind of my target. So, how could the Dow be worth 2 ounces of gold? Well, the Dow could go back to 20,000 and gold could go to 10,000. That's one way. Or maybe the Dow goes down to 40,000, which is not that big a move down, and gold goes up to 20,000, which is a pretty big move up for gold. But, you know, but the important thing is the ratio between the two. But we've been falling for 25 years. The Dow is down 70% over the last 25 years. And this is one of the worst years it's ever had. The Dow is down, what 25% or so this year, 30 in priced in gold. It's getting killed. It's in a massive bare market. No. Uh it it it is astonishing like the the pace that we're also witnessing right now. But talking about company valuations, I was in Beaver Creek and one one takeaway, my number one takeaway was we need to get used to higher prices. We need to look at things very differently and you touched on it. Record cash flows. We just end we're about to end Q3 here. Give it four more hour or two and a half more hours on my end here and Q3 is over. meaning we'll get uh production reports plus financial reports for Q3 with $300 higher margins >> um yet again. It's just going to be insane. And the market is just catching up to it. The analysts are still using 24 $2,500 gold consensus pricing, right? That's another interesting term, by the way. Consensus pricing. I'm not sure we came up with that. >> They have to totally redo their forecasts. I mean, but I was, you know, they they were always using lower goals. So if gold was 2,000, they would they would forecast 1,600. You know, they always assumed that the price of gold would be lower in the future, um, not higher. >> So that's why, you know, I think Wall Street is just recognizing the fact that gold's not coming back down. Like like gold's not going back down to a,000 or,500 or 2,000. It's just going to keep going up. I mean, it it may not go up in a straight line. may not go up every day, but a year from now, the price of gold is more likely to be higher than it is today, not lower. And that is a whole new ball game for the gold mining stocks because gold mining stocks are forward looking, right? You're supposed to try to figure out what are all these future cash flows worth today. And if you have an optimistic uh viewpoint on where the price of gold is going to be in the future, that means the earnings in the future are going to be a lot higher and so will the discounted present value. If you're of the opinion that gold's going to go way down in the future, then you're not going to value these stocks uh very high because you don't believe the earnings are are sustainable. Uh but when you start to have a more realistic outlook of where gold prices are going to be, you realize how cheap these stocks are. And you know, I mean, we've got a gold fund too at Europe Pacific. Uh EP uh GIX is the no-load symbol for Americans who have US brokerage accounts. They could buy buy my fund no load at any of the discount brokers. Uh if you're if you're uh other than that, you know, I guess internationally, we're we're going to be coming out with ETFs at some point. They just cleared the way to have ETFs of open-ended funds. >> So, I think we're going to be launching those at some point. >> Fantastic. Here, Peter, there's one last thing I wanted to show you real quick. I'm not sure if you can see it, but it's the daily chart of gold just for today because I thought it was quite interesting. It came out of Asia with a lot of weakness and a lot of pressure. But then North America started buying it, which was really interesting to see. >> That's not how it actually happened, I think, because I was watching it last night. So, in Asia, they ran the price of gold up, >> right? It ran up to a new record high. It got to about uh 3,870. They sold it off uh early AR morning, like 3:4 a.m. >> So, that was kind of European opening. They knocked it down. Gold went down about 35 bucks negative. So, it went from up 25, you know, to down and silver was down a buck. They nailed silver. And I think that Wall Street laid into the market because they wanted to open the gold mining stocks and the silver mining stocks negative so they could buy that dip in the morning to window dress their portfolios for the end of Q3. And if you look at how all of these precious metal stocks open, they all opened way down and immediately rallied positive. So is they they scared a lot of people out. They got some, you know, day traders that maybe had stops in the market. They flushed out some cheap shares and then it ran up and then we ripped. And look, we're probably going to close gold's probably going to close today at a new record high close here in New York. But um and I and and what we've been I've been noticing is every every every Sunday night they run every Sunday night when RA Asia reopens because I've been telling like my every I do these uh Friday market wraps with you know for shift gold and I keep telling people I've done this the last maybe five weeks in a row. I'm telling my my customers do not wait till Monday. Buy your gold on Friday. buy it Saturday morning, Saturday afternoon, Sunday morning. Buy it when the markets are closed and it's quiet because it's a, you know, we sell gold 247. But I say don't wait for Monday because it's going to, you know, gold's just going to gap up 50 bucks. So, you know, and that and every Monday it's every Sunday it's happening the same thing. We get a little bit of a pullback midweek, Tuesday, Wednesday, but then we rally it back Thursday or Friday. They buy it into the Friday, they buy it up over the weekend. I mean, there's some real accumulation going on because so many people got caught in this bull market without a position. I mean, that's why these stocks got so cheap because nobody was buying them. And and so Wall Street now is trying to play catchup and get an allocation. I mean, the best mining the best performing stock this year in the S&P 500, I think, is pneumont. >> Yeah, it was top two for a while. Well, it dropped to fifth. I haven't looked in the last 3 days, but it it's up there, which is just spectacular. >> But it's probably it's like it's probably the stock that hardly anybody owns. >> Yeah. >> Right. So, people are looking to get positions in in these stocks. Um and and I think at some point if you don't have a position in the mining stock, you're going to have to explain to your clients why you don't. Hey, how come we don't have any gold exposure? I mean, last year if you had gold exposure, they made fun of you. Maybe they fired you. Hey, what'd you buy these gold stocks for? What kind of idiot do you, you know, why'd you buy those? Right? So, you know, that's why people were afraid to buy it because they didn't want to get beat up for doing it. That no one wants to go out on the limb and buy something that might go down. But once it's going up and and more uh you know institutions start buying it, now you're afraid not to buy it because now you look like a fool for not owning something that's that's doing so well. >> Yeah, you get question on that. Absolutely. Peter, we we got to wrap it up here. What a wonderful conversation as always. I love chatting with you. I can't wait to speak with you in New Orleans in person when we see each other at Brian London's fantastic conference. Really looking forward to that. But uh in the meantime, bit of a rhetorical question. Peter, where can we send our audience to follow more of your work? >> Oh, well, you know, my asset management company, your.com, uh get information on all of my uh public mutual funds. Also, set up a managed account with us. We can manage your portfolio. Uh we're having a fantastic year. I mean, obviously, our gold strategy is more than double, but even my basic foreign dividend payer portfolio is up 45% on the year. uh you know so there's a lot of uh money I think that's going to be made as air comes out of the US bubble as investors bring their money home get rid of their dollars get rid of their US assets and they start redeploying their money into their own markets I think these those foreign markets from our perspective are going to perform much much better. I think next year could be the year of the emerging market and uh and so we do a lot in the emerging markets as well. Uh so you know go to go to the website for physical gold and silver uh shift gold. Uh I recommend that people buy physical gold and silver again. Don't wait for a pullback. Just buy it. Don't forget about platinum. Platinum is another precious metal that's looks like it's got a long way to go. In fact, platinum's up like 70% this year. It's beating gold and silver. >> Uh but it's still so cheap compared to gold, right? Gold's almost 4,000 and platinum's what? 1,600. >> So used to be par with gold. So, I mean, if gold's 4,000, platinum could be 5,000. I mean, if you look at history, right? So, platinum is really cheap, but you know, buy these metals. Um, and then, yeah, follow me on social media. I'm at 1.2 uh uh million uh ex followers now. So, follow me there. My YouTube channel, my main one's got about 600,000 subscribers. You can listen to my weekly uh podcast on my YouTube channel or on shiftradio.com. even my gold company. I have I'm starting to do more goal videos at at at the Shift Gold YouTube channel. So, you know, follow me there, tell your friends. I'm also on Facebook, Tik Tok, Instagram. I mean, you know, I'm on social media. >> So, uh make sure and follow me yourself and then get all your buddies to follow me, too, because I'm trying to get the truth out there. There's so much misinformation that I got to that I got to cut through. >> Uh the more people that uh are are paying attention to what I'm what I'm saying, the better. >> 100%. No, we'll put all the links down below. We'll see if we can get them all. Maybe your social media team can reach out and fill in the blanks. So, would appreciate that. Peter, thank you so much. Really appreciate your time. And everybody else, thanks so much for tuning in. Hope you enjoyed this conversation with Peter Schiff. I tremendously have. Can't wait to meet up with him in person in New Orleans at Brian London's New Orleans Investment Conference. Go check that out as well. It's a fantastic event that happens once a year and we appreciate him letting us be media partners and interview his phenomenal keynotes. That said, put your put your comments down below. What do you think is going to happen with the government shutdown? What do you make of the US GDP growth number? Is it real? Is it fake? How much debt do we have to spend to get to that 3.8%? Really curious how you're positioned. Are you already taking money off the table in mining stocks as well? I really want to hear from you. Thank you so much for tuning in. We'll be back with lots more here on Soore Financially. Take care out there. [Music]
GOLD: Wall Street Is Going All In, Road to $20k I Peter Schiff
Summary
Transcript
Gold is rallying from record high to record high. As we record this, gold is trading at 38.50 per ounce. Silver is around $46, $47. And there are some headwinds looming potentially. The US government shutdown could have some ramifications, but also GDP growth, economic growth, not just in the US, but globally. I've invited Peter Schiff. He's with a Europac or Europe Pacific Asset Management and of course a recurring guest on this channel. I don't think he needs a lot of introduction, but I'll ask him those questions like what what does it mean? What where is gold headed? Where's the economy headed? And what is what is his opinion on the government shutdown? Is it going to have any impact whatsoever on what we're usually talking about here on our channel? But before I switch over to my guest, hit that like and subscribe button. It helps us out tremendously and we much much appreciate it. Did I mention that it's free as well? Doesn't cost you a thing. So, thank you so much for doing that. Now, Peter, it is great to welcome you back on the program. Thanks so much for joining me. Well, thanks a lot, Kai, for having me back on. >> Yeah, really looking forward to the discussion. I I just, you know, threw the topics at you already and I think we're going to have a blast discussing those and dissecting future mistakes to be made here. Um, Peter, let's start with the economy before we talk about government shutdown, but uh GDP growth at 3.8% last quarter. What do you make of that number? It's the highest within the G7, the G10. Like, what what do you what do you make of it? Yeah, I don't put a lot of stock in government numbers and you know they often have a tendency to get revised uh many quarters or even years later. So they're not not reliable. Plus I think that in the GDP numbers in particular, I think that the way they measure inflation with the GDP deflator uh doesn't nearly capture all of the inflation. And so a lot of what's reported as growth is actually inflation. And and so I think one of the reasons that the GDP is as high as it is is because we're not deflating it enough. I think most of that so-called economic growth is just inflation. And so they're able to uh disguise that inflation as growth by under reportporting it. Yeah, it's it's an interesting one because we all rely on on that government data to make decisions because I don't think you >> I don't think but my point is though like we we don't walk from house to house and raise that data for example we don't collect it right so we do have to rely on certain indicators the question is what how do we interpret it I think that's the question we don't collect it but we we have to interpret it >> yeah yeah never base your investments on what the government tells you I mean if you're a short-term trader and you're going to trade on these numbers. I mean, sure, you know, but as far as knowing what to do long run with your money, uh the government is probably your least reliable source of information other than as a contrarian indicator. I mean, there's some uh benefit to that. Just whatever the government tells you, you know, you kind of do the opposite. Good, good point. Really good point. Um, you know, the question why I ask you about the GDP and the GDP growth number is just really to get an understanding of what you think how the US economy is doing because we've just seen a Fed rate cut and you usually don't do that when the economy is humming. Um, would would you agree? >> Well, well, I agree that the economy is weak. Uh, and I think it's going to get weaker. And I think, you know, Donald Trump is out there saying we have the hottest economy in the world. It's the strongest economy ever. Yet, he's demanding massive rate cuts. Uh and so those two are inconsistent, right? If we really have such a great economy, why is it so important that we get these massive rate cuts? Uh but I don't think the rate cuts are going to strengthen the economy. I think they'll strengthen inflation. Uh which will weaken the economy. I think that's the box that we're now in. uh because I think anything the Fed does on on a interest rate basis or quantitative easing which I think is our next uh you know the next policy but I I think it's actually going to undermine the economy even more. So I think their stimulus their stimulus is going to act more like a sedative because I think the the impact is going to be higher uh consumer prices and higher long-term interest rates which will actually weigh the economy down. it won't you know stimulate it. >> Coming coming back to some some data the government the Fed is sharing with us and that's one of their dot plots and their summary of economic projections which is always entertaining to read because they're expecting the unemployment rate to come down again in the coming years. Where do you think they come up with those numbers? 4.3% is the forecast for 2027. I I question from a really pragmatic approach. Where's that growth supposed to come from? >> Look, I I don't think they have any clue. I think they just pull the numbers out of their ass. You know, I I you know, in fact, there was in the last press conference, somebody asked uh Powell, you know, hey, you've got a projection for inflation coming down to 2% in two years. Two years ago, you had the same forecast that we have 2% inflation in two years. Well, you know, we're obviously not there. You know, why do you think that, you know, this conf, you know, forecast will be any more accurate than than the last one? And his answer was like, well, you know, we just kind of forecast 2% inflation in two years because that's our goal. That's our target. And so, you know, we want to forecast our target. So, in other words, there there's no methodology. It's just wishful thinking. And I think the same thing applies to unemployment. They want the unemployment rate to go down. They want to pretend that their policies are going to help bring it down. So, I think their long-term forecast is always going to be for unemployment lower than it is at the moment. You know, because if they were if they were forecasting unemployment to go up, that would be a big problem. Somebody would say, "Hey, why aren't you doing something about that?" I mean, what if they said, "Yeah, we think unemployment will be at, you know, 6% in two years, right? How are they supposed to have a forecast like that?" Uh, so I I I just think none of these forecasts are actual forecasts. It's what they hope will happen. And so they put it in their forecast because that's what they are hoping for. >> Yeah. No, I agree. It was Mike McKe from from Bloomberg who asked that question. I had to chuckle when I saw that as well. So because I was watching the press conference. So that that was entertaining because I couldn't make rhyme of it. I was like, okay, why this why all of a sudden should the unemployment rate decrease? It doesn't make any sense uh in that. >> How do they even know? How the hell do they know what the unemployment rate's going to be? I mean, there's so many variables that might go into determining what the unemployment is. How the hell are these guys supposed to know? >> Yeah. Well, and we get a new head of the BLS any any day now, which might which might change course completely as well or who might change course completely as well. Um, Peter, like government shutdown is another topic I want to discuss and it's sort of the segue from from the Fed over to the government because the the Fed relies on government data and if we do get a shutdown tonight um and they don't come up with a solution to their budget problem, which they probably won't here, that's what the market is expecting. But uh but what are the ramifications of a government shutdown? Let's start high level here. >> Well, first of all, they're never going to solve the the fiscal problems. So the shutdown's got nothing to do with that. But look, I mean, it's all a charade. How many government shutdowns have we had, you know, yet the government is still here, you know? I mean, I could get my arms around a real government shutdown where they actually shut down the government. But but they don't they they don't shut it down. You know what they do? They shut down the national parks and they make a big deal. Oh, these people went to Yusede and they couldn't get in. You know, but most of the government is still operating. You know, it's not like all the rules and regulations are are somehow on pause. I don't I you know, they still take taxes out of your pay. You know, you don't get a break on the income tax or the social security tax because the government is shut down. No, the government is still there, you know, ruining your life, making, you know, making you have to work a lot harder. So, they're they're never real shutdowns. They're just uh for show. They shut down certain things. And of course, they they furlow all the a bunch of the government employees who love a government shutdown because they get paid. They just don't have to show up and go to work. Now, you know, I just assume the government workers not go go to work because usually whatever they're doing is screwing us up. You know, it's probably better if they stay home even though we pay them because they're doing less damage if they're if they're if they're not at work. But look, it's all a political theater. You know, the real problem with the government shutdowns is A, they don't shut down enough, and B, at the end of the day, they always reopen government back up, so we're stuck with it. So, I don't really pay much attention to it. Um, I think there's much bigger problems than this, the shutdown. The problems are the massive government spending, uh the huge deficits, the fact that now you have uh the president trying to hijack the Federal Reserve and stack it with a bunch of cronies to remove even a pretense of Fed independence. Um, and then you have, you know, Donald Trump, you know, shaking down private companies, uh, extracting concessions, uh, taking stakes, micromanaging the United States as if it was his own private company, right? Uh, this is all part of Trump enterprises. Uh, I think this is a horrible approach to government. I think it sets a lot of dangerous precedents for future presidents to abuse the powers that Trump is usurping. Uh, I really hope the courts uh put a stop to what's going on. Um, but you know, you mentioned gold's at 3,850. I mean, that's $150 less than $4,000. I mean, think about that. $150 and we're at $4,000 gold. Um, this is not something that should be dismissed. you know, when the price of gold is doing this, you know, it's not like it's, you know, the pl the price of cheese, you know, you or or something like that, you know, or you lumber or or soybeans, you know, because this is not about, oh, we got a bad crop, you know, there was some there was a drought, you know, there was a flood or there was just a big increase in demand for, you know, corn or whatever. This is gold, right? It's not like Americans or everybody else all of a sudden wants a lot more jewelry, right? There's not a run on the jewelry stores. Gold is going up because of its monetary properties. It is a monetary metal. And when gold is rising like this, it is a warning sign, right? It is the canary in the monetary coal mine. And when you see this happening, it is a warning that something bad is happening. And you know, the biggest buyers of the gold are foreign central banks. Now, don't you think they know something? I mean, they're the insiders in the monetary system, right? And they're buying gold as fast as they can. And it's really like they're selling dollars, right? If these are insiders that are dumping dollars and they're dumping treasuries and they're buying gold, why are they doing that? Why are they foregoing the yield on US treasuries to hold gold and and have no yield? Uh that tells you something. And in fact, Wall Street is finally recognizing this. A week or two ago, Morgan Stanley tweaked for the first time the 6040 portfolio. That sacrosen 60% stocks, 40% bonds. They decided to cut the bond portion in half and make it 20% bonds, 20% gold. Now, I've never seen that in my entire career. I'm 62. I started at 24 in this business as a licensed stock broker. And during all those years, um, almost almost 40, right, I'd never seen this. Um, I I was always like a lone voice in the wilderness on Wall Street telling my clients to buy physical gold. right now all of a sudden more you know wirehouse firms institutional investment banks are for the first time saying you need to sell bonds and buy some gold because you know there's a lot of inflation that you need to hedge so this idea of 2% inflation that's gone not that 2% was ever the holy grail or anything I'd rather have no inflation than 2% or I'd rather have prices go down 2% than up 2% that That's better, right? I mean, I want to buy stuff cheaper. I' I'd rather pay less, right? Uh but now it's, you know, it's going to be way more than two because the Fed is cutting rates when inflation is at 3% even the way they measure it, but it's on an upswing. So, it's headed higher yet they're cutting rates. So, that tells you that the 2% target is out the window. What's the new target? Who the hell knows, right? They they've never fessed up to one, but it's a lot higher. And so the world, I think, is ddollarizing. And I think this is a big problem for the United States because America uses the dollar as a crutch. You know, our economy um is so screwed up in a way because of the dollar status. We've been able to live beyond our means for decades. We can consume without producing and we can borrow without saving and that's made possible by the dollar reserve status. So the world is willing to manufacture goods and and let us have them for dollars and the world is willing to loan us dollars so that we can have lower interest rates and you know they're willing to buy our stocks to prop up our markets. But I think all that is going to be reversing and I think this whole uh house of cards economy is going to come toppling down and you're going to see a big increase in consumer prices and long-term interest rates in America and a very substantial decline in the standard of living uh for most Americans. >> Let's unpack in that statement there, Peter. Lots to follow up on. Maybe the let me let me follow up on the 60 2020 uh real quick. What does that mean for money flows and liquidity and just when when you go to gold? Like you cut 20% of your portfolio and move it into gold and we all know the bond market is a trillion dollar plus market. I don't have the exact number in my head here but it's a massive massive market. I think we can all agree on that. Even if just a little bit of that moves over and turns into 60 38 or 16 what is it 60 maybe 2812 or something that's already massive. like what what like what will that do to prices mining stocks in general? What do you think? >> Well, first of all, if if half of the money in bonds at Wall Street firms went into gold, who the hell knows how high the price would go, >> right? I mean, it's I mean, first of all, it's going to impact bonds. Now, the bond market is is a lot bigger than the gold market for now. You know, eventually the gold market might be bigger when the price moves up a lot more. But, you know, what what Morgan Stanley was effectively doing is putting out a sell signal on treasuries. You know, telling its customers to sell treasuries. So, that's going to have an impact if more Wall Street firms want to sell treasuries. The central banks are selling treasuries and the Treasury is selling selling treasuries like they're going out of style, which they are, but they're selling they're selling more treasuries than ever. Our deficits are trillions per year. So at a time where the US government is selling more treasuries than ever before, the buyers of treasuries don't want them. Uh that's why the Fed is going to have to buy them. The Fed right now is selling treasuries. They're still doing quantitative tightening. But I think they're going to be forced to reverse that into quantitative easing and that's going to send inflation through the roof. And I think the gold market already sees that or investors. And that's one of the reasons why they keep selling dollars and buying gold. Um, so yeah, I mean, Wall Street starting to move customers towards gold is going to be a big deal. And I think not only are they going to be moving their customers out of bonds into gold, they're going to be moving customers out of Bitcoin into gold. Because I think a lot of Wall Street, even though they haven't been big promoters, I think a lot of the discount firms that have s set up a Bitcoin ETFs, uh, they have enabled a lot of investor money to flow into Bitcoin. And I think a lot of the money that went into Bitcoin ETFs came out of gold ETFs and gold mining stocks. And I think those investors who got frustrated with gold's lackluster performance and the weakness in gold stocks and who decided to move their chips over to Bitcoin ETFs, I think next year when they look back at this year and they see that gold stocks more than doubled and Bitcoin maybe was flat to lower. I mean, it's up on the year right now, but it could dump in Q4. I think you're going to see a pretty big uh exodus of that money out of the Bitcoin ETFs back into gold and gold equities. And not only is that going to help push gold and gold equities up, but it's going to crash Bitcoin even more because a lot of the money that went into the Bitcoin ETFs ain't coming out, right? It's like a it's like a money roach motel. You could check your money in, but you can't check it out because when you try to sell, the market crashes and there's no one to sell to. No, I I get that part. Do you see a trigger looming though that that could push investors in that direction? Of course, the year-to- date performance for gold is staggering. It's close to 40%. It's the best year. We've been reading it everywhere since 1979. Q3 best quarter on record. Apparently, the superlatives are extreme. Of course, uh that that speak for gold. But what could trigger that change momentum? We've seen like the S&P investors, they they were chasing the 25% yearly uh you know, yearly gains and they still haven't really uh exited the main market, right? So, we need a trigger. I, you know, Alec, I remember in early 2024, and I was critiquing this on my podcast, but you had a couple of firms basically downgrade Pneumont and Barrack to cells. And they said that there's no more upside in gold. Gold was at 2,000. And the analysts were saying, look, gold is pretty much fully priced here. it's more likely to go down and uh and so there's no point in buying these gold stocks. And of course, since then, the price of gold has almost doubled. It's almost 4,000 now. And these mining stocks that they put sell recommendations on have more than doubled since they put sells on them. So, Wall Street did not anticipate this trade at all. And they're only now starting to get positions. and and and that's why I think this this move has got so far to go. Um I don't think there's going to be any substantial pullbacks. I mean, there'll be pullbacks for a day or two, but I don't think you're going to get, you know, 10% drops in gold or even, you know, even 3 or 4% is going to be tough, right? Because there's so much money now waiting to come in that any dip is going to get bought pretty aggressively. Um, and that's what I've been telling like my customers at Shift Gold. I just keep saying stop waiting for a pullback. You, you know, you're going to be waiting forever and then you're going to end up buying at a much higher price. Just buy. You want to buy gold, buy it. You want to buy silver, buy it. Don't get cute. Don't try to get a pullback because even if you get a pullback, chances are it won't be enough and you'll miss it. By the time you buy it, it'll be higher. So, just buy it, you know, because you what you really need to do is is you're getting out of the dollar. The dollar is a sinking ship. Uh the only uh unknown is how fast it's going to go all the way to the bottom, but we know that it's sinking. So the sooner you get off, the better. And the longer you wait, the higher the water level is going to be by the time you by the time you get off. So you just got to buy. And the same thing on these gold stocks, you know, just Yeah, they've doubled. Um, and some have tripled, you know, but if you look at where they are in relation to where they were 10, 20 years ago, a lot of them are still a lot cheaper, but gold is much higher than it was back then. It's not just that the stocks are down, the value of the gold that they own is way up. And I think the earnings on these gold mining stocks are just going to explode. I mean, no, nobody has even put a pencil to a piece of paper to determine how much money these gold companies are going to make at $4,000 goal. And of course, we're not going to stay at $4,000 goal. Next year, we'll be at $5,000 goal, maybe $6,000 goal. >> Uh, so, you know, these the these companies are just going to make a ton of money. And, you know, Wall Street is just like waking up to this. you know, I mean there is no mag seven in the gold of gold stocks, right? We don't have any anacronisms or not, you know, it's not like tech, right? Everybody is all over tech. Uh so, you know, go the gold stocks are going to are going to be, you know, like that. I mean, you know, at some point you're going to start to see uh you know, retail money coming in, you know, meme stock money and stuff like that. But, I mean, we're, you know, that's probably years away. It's the serious money that's coming in now. They missed the bottom. Uh, and the only reason I got the bottom is because I bought way early. It's like, you know, because I saw I saw this coming from a mile away. I prepared too soon. Um, but so, yeah, I caught this entire move because I was already long, but I added to my positions back in in uh the first quarter of 2024. I bought more gold stocks when they put these sell recommendations on and then I bought more gold stocks for myself uh after Trump won at the end of last year and early this year when they dumped them. They just the market they went down like 30% because everybody thought Trump was going to be so great for the economy. Hey, why do you want to own gold stocks when he's going to make the economy great? He's going to pay off the national debt and all this crap. I just bought and I was urging all my clients to just, you know, put more money in because I knew that this was a bunch of BS. And in fact, we had another opportunity right after Liberation Day. There was a an im an an initial selloff of gold and silver stocks in particular. Silver stocks got crushed. If you'd have bought Liberation Day lows, people talk about the snackback. These silver stocks have tripled off those liberation day lows. Uh so yeah, but but but I think it's still early in this trade. I mean, I think I think a lot of these gold mining stocks are going to five or 10x even from here. You know, I maybe it'll take another five years to do it or take I don't know, but that's where they're going to be because I think gold is not going to stop going up because the dollar is not going to stop going down. Uh it's not going to stop at 5,000. It's pro not going to stop at 10,000. It's it's going to go higher. I mean I mean it could go to 20,000. I mean who the hell knows? Um it certainly has a precedent. You know look at the value of the Dow in terms of gold. Um you know the Dow right now is worth 12 ounces of gold. Now it was worth 40 ounces of gold 25 years ago. So that's a 70% decline. But the Dow was worth 1 ounce of gold in 1980 and it was worth 1 ounce of gold in 1932. Now, it was worth 19 ounces of gold in 1929. So, it shows you that in just a few years, the Dow went from 19 ounces of gold to one approximately. I mean, not exact, but that shows you how much stocks can go down priced in gold. And again, by the way, the Dow is lower today than it was 96 years ago. So, all all this is a bunch of inflation, right? To say, "Oh, the Dow is 46,000. That's meaningless. Gold's 3,800. it. Gold was $20 in 1929. So, of course, the Dow is higher, but in real terms, it's lower. But I I think that at a minimum, I think the Dow is going to get down to 2 ounces of gold. That'd be my kind of my target. So, how could the Dow be worth 2 ounces of gold? Well, the Dow could go back to 20,000 and gold could go to 10,000. That's one way. Or maybe the Dow goes down to 40,000, which is not that big a move down, and gold goes up to 20,000, which is a pretty big move up for gold. But, you know, but the important thing is the ratio between the two. But we've been falling for 25 years. The Dow is down 70% over the last 25 years. And this is one of the worst years it's ever had. The Dow is down, what 25% or so this year, 30 in priced in gold. It's getting killed. It's in a massive bare market. No. Uh it it it is astonishing like the the pace that we're also witnessing right now. But talking about company valuations, I was in Beaver Creek and one one takeaway, my number one takeaway was we need to get used to higher prices. We need to look at things very differently and you touched on it. Record cash flows. We just end we're about to end Q3 here. Give it four more hour or two and a half more hours on my end here and Q3 is over. meaning we'll get uh production reports plus financial reports for Q3 with $300 higher margins >> um yet again. It's just going to be insane. And the market is just catching up to it. The analysts are still using 24 $2,500 gold consensus pricing, right? That's another interesting term, by the way. Consensus pricing. I'm not sure we came up with that. >> They have to totally redo their forecasts. I mean, but I was, you know, they they were always using lower goals. So if gold was 2,000, they would they would forecast 1,600. You know, they always assumed that the price of gold would be lower in the future, um, not higher. >> So that's why, you know, I think Wall Street is just recognizing the fact that gold's not coming back down. Like like gold's not going back down to a,000 or,500 or 2,000. It's just going to keep going up. I mean, it it may not go up in a straight line. may not go up every day, but a year from now, the price of gold is more likely to be higher than it is today, not lower. And that is a whole new ball game for the gold mining stocks because gold mining stocks are forward looking, right? You're supposed to try to figure out what are all these future cash flows worth today. And if you have an optimistic uh viewpoint on where the price of gold is going to be in the future, that means the earnings in the future are going to be a lot higher and so will the discounted present value. If you're of the opinion that gold's going to go way down in the future, then you're not going to value these stocks uh very high because you don't believe the earnings are are sustainable. Uh but when you start to have a more realistic outlook of where gold prices are going to be, you realize how cheap these stocks are. And you know, I mean, we've got a gold fund too at Europe Pacific. Uh EP uh GIX is the no-load symbol for Americans who have US brokerage accounts. They could buy buy my fund no load at any of the discount brokers. Uh if you're if you're uh other than that, you know, I guess internationally, we're we're going to be coming out with ETFs at some point. They just cleared the way to have ETFs of open-ended funds. >> So, I think we're going to be launching those at some point. >> Fantastic. Here, Peter, there's one last thing I wanted to show you real quick. I'm not sure if you can see it, but it's the daily chart of gold just for today because I thought it was quite interesting. It came out of Asia with a lot of weakness and a lot of pressure. But then North America started buying it, which was really interesting to see. >> That's not how it actually happened, I think, because I was watching it last night. So, in Asia, they ran the price of gold up, >> right? It ran up to a new record high. It got to about uh 3,870. They sold it off uh early AR morning, like 3:4 a.m. >> So, that was kind of European opening. They knocked it down. Gold went down about 35 bucks negative. So, it went from up 25, you know, to down and silver was down a buck. They nailed silver. And I think that Wall Street laid into the market because they wanted to open the gold mining stocks and the silver mining stocks negative so they could buy that dip in the morning to window dress their portfolios for the end of Q3. And if you look at how all of these precious metal stocks open, they all opened way down and immediately rallied positive. So is they they scared a lot of people out. They got some, you know, day traders that maybe had stops in the market. They flushed out some cheap shares and then it ran up and then we ripped. And look, we're probably going to close gold's probably going to close today at a new record high close here in New York. But um and I and and what we've been I've been noticing is every every every Sunday night they run every Sunday night when RA Asia reopens because I've been telling like my every I do these uh Friday market wraps with you know for shift gold and I keep telling people I've done this the last maybe five weeks in a row. I'm telling my my customers do not wait till Monday. Buy your gold on Friday. buy it Saturday morning, Saturday afternoon, Sunday morning. Buy it when the markets are closed and it's quiet because it's a, you know, we sell gold 247. But I say don't wait for Monday because it's going to, you know, gold's just going to gap up 50 bucks. So, you know, and that and every Monday it's every Sunday it's happening the same thing. We get a little bit of a pullback midweek, Tuesday, Wednesday, but then we rally it back Thursday or Friday. They buy it into the Friday, they buy it up over the weekend. I mean, there's some real accumulation going on because so many people got caught in this bull market without a position. I mean, that's why these stocks got so cheap because nobody was buying them. And and so Wall Street now is trying to play catchup and get an allocation. I mean, the best mining the best performing stock this year in the S&P 500, I think, is pneumont. >> Yeah, it was top two for a while. Well, it dropped to fifth. I haven't looked in the last 3 days, but it it's up there, which is just spectacular. >> But it's probably it's like it's probably the stock that hardly anybody owns. >> Yeah. >> Right. So, people are looking to get positions in in these stocks. Um and and I think at some point if you don't have a position in the mining stock, you're going to have to explain to your clients why you don't. Hey, how come we don't have any gold exposure? I mean, last year if you had gold exposure, they made fun of you. Maybe they fired you. Hey, what'd you buy these gold stocks for? What kind of idiot do you, you know, why'd you buy those? Right? So, you know, that's why people were afraid to buy it because they didn't want to get beat up for doing it. That no one wants to go out on the limb and buy something that might go down. But once it's going up and and more uh you know institutions start buying it, now you're afraid not to buy it because now you look like a fool for not owning something that's that's doing so well. >> Yeah, you get question on that. Absolutely. Peter, we we got to wrap it up here. What a wonderful conversation as always. I love chatting with you. I can't wait to speak with you in New Orleans in person when we see each other at Brian London's fantastic conference. Really looking forward to that. But uh in the meantime, bit of a rhetorical question. Peter, where can we send our audience to follow more of your work? >> Oh, well, you know, my asset management company, your.com, uh get information on all of my uh public mutual funds. Also, set up a managed account with us. We can manage your portfolio. Uh we're having a fantastic year. I mean, obviously, our gold strategy is more than double, but even my basic foreign dividend payer portfolio is up 45% on the year. uh you know so there's a lot of uh money I think that's going to be made as air comes out of the US bubble as investors bring their money home get rid of their dollars get rid of their US assets and they start redeploying their money into their own markets I think these those foreign markets from our perspective are going to perform much much better. I think next year could be the year of the emerging market and uh and so we do a lot in the emerging markets as well. Uh so you know go to go to the website for physical gold and silver uh shift gold. Uh I recommend that people buy physical gold and silver again. Don't wait for a pullback. Just buy it. Don't forget about platinum. Platinum is another precious metal that's looks like it's got a long way to go. In fact, platinum's up like 70% this year. It's beating gold and silver. >> Uh but it's still so cheap compared to gold, right? Gold's almost 4,000 and platinum's what? 1,600. >> So used to be par with gold. So, I mean, if gold's 4,000, platinum could be 5,000. I mean, if you look at history, right? So, platinum is really cheap, but you know, buy these metals. Um, and then, yeah, follow me on social media. I'm at 1.2 uh uh million uh ex followers now. So, follow me there. My YouTube channel, my main one's got about 600,000 subscribers. You can listen to my weekly uh podcast on my YouTube channel or on shiftradio.com. even my gold company. I have I'm starting to do more goal videos at at at the Shift Gold YouTube channel. So, you know, follow me there, tell your friends. I'm also on Facebook, Tik Tok, Instagram. I mean, you know, I'm on social media. >> So, uh make sure and follow me yourself and then get all your buddies to follow me, too, because I'm trying to get the truth out there. There's so much misinformation that I got to that I got to cut through. >> Uh the more people that uh are are paying attention to what I'm what I'm saying, the better. >> 100%. No, we'll put all the links down below. We'll see if we can get them all. Maybe your social media team can reach out and fill in the blanks. So, would appreciate that. Peter, thank you so much. Really appreciate your time. And everybody else, thanks so much for tuning in. Hope you enjoyed this conversation with Peter Schiff. I tremendously have. Can't wait to meet up with him in person in New Orleans at Brian London's New Orleans Investment Conference. Go check that out as well. It's a fantastic event that happens once a year and we appreciate him letting us be media partners and interview his phenomenal keynotes. That said, put your put your comments down below. What do you think is going to happen with the government shutdown? What do you make of the US GDP growth number? Is it real? Is it fake? How much debt do we have to spend to get to that 3.8%? Really curious how you're positioned. Are you already taking money off the table in mining stocks as well? I really want to hear from you. Thank you so much for tuning in. We'll be back with lots more here on Soore Financially. Take care out there. [Music]