Geopolitical Strategy: The podcast discusses a peace plan for Gaza proposed by President Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu, which is viewed as a delaying tactic to avoid war with Iran.
US-Israel Relations: Netanyahu is perceived to have significant influence over US lawmakers, which complicates Trump's ability to maneuver politically, especially concerning Iran.
Middle East Dynamics: The feasibility of disarming Hamas and involving regional players like Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar in peace efforts is questioned, highlighting the complexity of Middle Eastern geopolitics.
Investment in Gaza: The idea of developing Gaza into a real estate project is criticized as unrealistic due to legal and security challenges, making it an unattractive investment.
AI in Drug Discovery: The podcast highlights Hive's innovative AI technology in drug discovery, emphasizing its potential to revolutionize the industry by improving drug design efficiency and success rates.
US Foreign Policy Shift: Trump's efforts to establish cooperative relations with Russia are seen as a significant shift from past US foreign policy, aiming to reduce global tensions.
Propaganda and Conflict: Allegations of Russian provocations in NATO airspace are dismissed as propaganda, with concerns about potential false flag operations to escalate conflicts.
Global Power Struggle: The discussion underscores a broader conflict between Western imperialistic governance and emerging multipolar global systems, affecting geopolitical stability.
Transcript
President Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu sat together in the White House yesterday and came up with a plan to bring peace to Gaza. What does that mean? What are the 20 points that they have discussed and laid out? And what are what is the impact? Is it even feasible to introduce this plan? I've invited Alex Kriner on to the program. He's a geopolitical analyst, but also former hedge fund manager, and he's going to help us put some perspective around what is happening. We've also got some other topics lined up if we get to them. Russia attacking NATO, but also what is happening between the US and China. Are there some side deals over Taiwan happening? Really curious what his thoughts are on those topics as well. We have 30 minutes to discuss all of that and we'll do our very best to fit it all in. Before I switch over to my guest, hit that like and subscribe button though. It's a free way to support our channel. We much much appreciate it. So, thanks so much for doing that. Now, Alex, it's great to welcome you back on Soore Financially. Thank you so much for joining us. >> Thank you for having me, Kai. Always a pleasure to join you and warm greetings to your audience. >> Yeah, thanks so much, Alex. Before we get started, real quick info as well to our audience members. You will be joining us in Frankfurt at Deutsche Go Messa November 14th and 15th. Really, >> really excited to get your geopolitical insights on everything. So, and and to meet in person. We haven't met in person yet. So, I'm really looking forward to that. >> Yeah, I really look forward to it. Yes, >> it'll be great. Um, Alex, as I mentioned, 30 minutes. We got to run through it. I feel like I should put a timer at the top top left corner to get us going. But um President Trump, Benjamin Nachu, Netanyahu met in in in the White House yesterday and presented a peace plan for Gaza. I've got the the 20 points here. I'll show them real quick. Um what what do you make of uh the talks? What what is what do you make of the outcome? Uh I I have to say it seems to me that this is little more than uh a way to buy time. Uh it reminds me of the of the road map to peace from about 20 years ago that you know George W. Bush was negotiating which obviously led nowhere. It was just another exercise in in time wasting. Uh with this one, I feel it's a very very long shot. And I think that Trump is probably forcing down everybody's throat to buy time. And the reason why he needs to buy time is because he doesn't want to go to the war against Iran. And he is heavily pressured at home politically to take on Iran for Israel. And you know, we have to part with the illusion that, you know, Trump as the president of the United States can just snap his fingers and do whatever he wants. There's a, you know, there's a Congress there. Uh, and as we know, uh, the US Congress is Israeli occupied territory. Uh, Benjamin Netanyahu can get more support out of US Congress than Donald Trump can. I think he Netanyahu controls about 70 between 70 and 80 out of a 100 votes in US Senate. Trump barely has over 50 and those senators are not all loyal to Trump. So it's a and then you know we must not remember uh the 70ome million uh Christian evangelicals plus Zionist Jews who are a tremendous political force in the United States. So that is where the pressure uh to take on Iran is coming from. And it seems to me that this new, you know, road map to peace is nothing but uh uh a way to buy time and avoid war. Obviously, Benjamin Netanyahu is not very excited about it and implementation of this plan risks uh splitting up his coalition, which could be the end of his government. This could this this will be very contentious in Israel. Second, it's uh it's assuming that they can disarm Hamas or that Hamas will agree to be disarmed, which will never happen because by that act, Hamas would have to put themselves at the mercy of their enemy and of all the forces in the region that have betrayed them time and again, you know, and then you have to force this uh on all other actors in the region. namely uh Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Qatar. Trump has even been talking about having Iran join the Abraham Accords because that would be necessary for this to to hold together. And I think that it's it's such a long shot that I I'm not even sure why bother. And so the only the only way that I can explain this to myself is that Trump is simply buying time to avoid going to war uh against Iran. Uh as they weigh out Israel because Israel really is on very thin ice. uh not only are they losing um their eight wars growing weaker and weaker by the day, but they're also rapidly losing support in the United States. So, it's, you know, it could be game over for Israel. Uh, and it's going to be either that or there's going to be a general war in the Middle East against Iran. Unfortunately for Trump, for the Israelis, for the British who are ultimately behind all this, they can they can go to to a war like this, but they cannot predict its outcome. >> They really cannot predict its outcomes. So it's a it's a it's a high level of desperation at this point and I think that for that reason Trump doesn't want to have anything to do with it. So that's why he pretty much armwisted Netanyahu into supporting this 20point peace plan. But I think that Netanyahu is going to get uh blasted uh at home and it probably Israel probably won't even begin to implement it. Yeah, I've been scanning the news already and the the right the far right in Israel is already pushing back aggressively calling it a failure of diplomacy >> obviously >> right so exactly what you've mentioned it seems like the government is might might be falling apart over this um but interesting followup maybe you you mentioned Trump strong armed Netanyahu into potentially accepting this peace plan um yet you earlier in the conversation you mentioned that Netanyahu is probably in a stronger position than Trump just based on polit political um access perhaps or political what do you call it capability maybe I don't know um but what does Trump have over Netanyahu to push him in into agreeing to this drug discovery is broken 90% of drugs fail it's slow it's expensive and the so-called AI solutions out there they don't work because biology is way too complex for basic pattern recognition that's why Hive caught my attention they've built something totally different hive technology think of it like Google for biology instead of raw sequences and blackbox outputs. 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Check out their link in the bio below. >> Well, uh I I I think I need to clarify. I don't think that Netanyahu is in a stronger position politically. Netanyahu has greater influence over the American lawmakers because, you know, remember how most American congressmen have at least one or more um Apac handlers who practically call them on a daily basis and tell them how to vote and what policies to support. uh how many many US congressmen have Israeli flags in front of their offices with with bumper stickers, we support Israel and things like this. And then when Netanyahu turns up at the US Senate or sorry, joint sessions of US Congress, uh he could be reading falafel recipes and he would get 50 standing ovations. Trump doesn't get that treatment. But Trump is not at war on eight fronts. Trump is at war on on ma mainly one front and that is the occult oligarchy that's still running the western world for the for for for for the time being and so obviously this this power structure needs a regime change in Iran then they need a regime change in Russia then they need a regime change in Pakistan and in China and uh you know they need all these dominoes to fall so they need Israel uh to help or to bring about the regime change in Iran. The Israelis themselves have been saying, "Well, as soon as we're done with Iran, we're going on to Pakistan." At the same time, and you can tell now that it's all the same forces, uh they're still trying to um regime change Russia. And if they managed to regime change Russia, then they would use Russia against China in exactly the same way as they used Ukraine against Russia. So this is how the dominoes are intended to fall with the with the with the ultimate objective of uh taking control of Eurasian landmass completely and to install client regime regimes everywhere and for nations that are potentially a threat to the western oligarchy to bulcanize them and to turn them into into little colonies, little client states uh as they already expressed their intention to do with Russia. Uh it is very clear that Trump is not cooperating on this agenda. Uh and to me it seems that his agendas with with Israel and with with with Gaza are only a delaying tactic. And even if you, you know, if you if you take into account the idea of doing something with Gaza in the as a as a as a as a massive real estate development project, if you think about it for two seconds, you realize that it doesn't make any sense whatsoever. It is completely bonkers and insane because you know who would go and invest billions into some kind of a development that it's on disputable legal grounds in a in a hostile environment because that would be a very long-term project, >> right? You wouldn't be doing that for a year or five years. This is something that would be for a generation or two or or 10. And so you would have to make sure that the whole project is on legally sound foundations because otherwise you can't sell it, right? So it would be a write-off. And then even if you've penagled that every every regime in the region is your own client regime, you know, like like Jordan, like Syria today, uh that all can change very quickly. So if you if you if you brought this in front of any investor, they would tell you, you must be mad. Besides, the world is very big. Why on earth, if I wanted to develop like a like a like a Mediterranean Riviera, why on earth would I do it in Gaza? I could do it in Egypt or in Spain or >> Greenspring or something like that. Yeah. Why Gaza? So the whole thing is is just So, such a long shot that I I I I think that clearly what they're really trying to accomplish is not even close to what they're telling us that they're doing. >> My mind went immediately to the Bin Laden family in Saudi Arabia because they're big project and real estate developers. But uh probably the wrong angle to take this. But uh you would need a strong local partner though uh in in that regard and that's why I went to Saudi Arabia, Bin Laden family, which of course the US has interesting links with of course uh in in the past. Uh but I'm not sure if that's the right approach here and that's the right angle. This is probably maybe even taking it a little too far here. Would would you agree? >> Uh yeah. Yeah, I would absolutely agree. And so and and you know so long as the axis of resistance is there and alive and kicking which it is uh the nothing none none of that makes any sense you know uh Hamas is there hasn't been defeated will not disarm I am 100% certain of that uh Hezbollah is still there you know Israelis can can you know like thump their chest that they have destroyed Hezbollah they not >> uh Ansarala is still there in Yemen with rockets that can reach uh Israel and Gaza. >> Uh you know Gaza if if it were in in the hands of western real estate developers. Um Jordanian regime is on thin ice. It could you know it it's it's not long for this world. Uh Syria, God only knows, but we know that large chunks of Syrian Arab army uh went to Iran and Iraq and some may be hiding within Syria today as well. Whole tank divisions went over. Uh they're there, they're intact, they're waiting. Iran hasn't been regime changed and they will not buy into Abraham Accords. So what are you going to do? And then your military supremacy in the region is uh you know long gone. You don't have it anymore. And uh so I think that the well let's say that the very positive outlook on this is that Trump is avoiding war against Iran. >> And I think that's a that's an encouraging sign. And you know many people will say like oh yeah but you know he bombed Iran. Yeah, you know that that was a war like World Wrestling Federation is martial arts >> because you know they they talked to each other. Uh Trump told them at some point, look, I can't hold back anymore. I have to, you know, do something. Uh we're going to be bombing these places in 48 hours. You have 48 hours to evacuate whatever may be important to you. And so the Iranians did. And then you had a couple of missiles and a couple of bombs that were dropped on on these sites which caused some damage, but it it it didn't cause a whole lot of damage. Israelis caused a lot of damage by assassinating a whole bunch of people uh in the Iranian government and military. But um I kind of predicted that. I said, you know, before that happened, I said either there will be no attack on Iran or there's going to be a fake one, meaning they're going to do something that looks spectacular but isn't going to achieve anything very substantial. And we're going to know for sure by the way the Iranians retaliate. And when the Iranians retaliated, they they also pre, you know, pre-announced the move. They gave the Americans time to evacuate from their Qatari base. Uh so there was zero uh casualties and Trump even uh publicly thanked the Iranians for the courtesy. So that was that was just um a World Wrestling Federation encounter for the for the entertainment of the of the media in the West. But it wasn't a real war, which you know, which to me was a sign that Trump is not on board with this global, you know, uh, knocking down domino after domino in order to establish full hegemony over the Eurasian land mass. >> You're making Trump out to be a good guy in this scenario. Is that a right characterization here? cuz he he's going against the cabal here um that seems to be behind this that is pushing for that agenda and he back back to his original term like he's trying to drain the swamp. Uh is that something that that he's doing right now by by pushing by delaying and maybe playing that political kabuki theater here? >> Well u this is very difficult to say you know either he is or he's not. So that would be like a 50-50 proposition. But I I paid very close attention to Trump uh to his uh to members of his team, to their interview statements, um to their policy moves. And I'm I'm not exactly 50/50. I would say I'm more 60/40. Uh because there are, you know, there are many things uh that he has done that suggest to me that he is changing the course of American foreign policy. And it's a huge change of course because it's practically breaking with the continuity of the past um 70ome years like from World War II basically. And um one one the perhaps the most most important thing he has done is to reestablish constructive cooperative relationship with Russia because you know as as Germany's former foreign minister Ziggma Gabriel said this is far and away the most important and most sensitive relationship in the world for the future of the of of the world and and the future of humanity And it's absolutely unforgivable that uh Biden administration completely closed the door on this relationship for for three years because it put us all much much closer to the risk of nuclear annihilation. And I think that with Trump and their uh very regular contacts with the Russian counterparts, you know, it's not just Trump calling Putin and meeting. I think they had at least nine or 10 calls so far, but then their various delegations are meeting and holding conferences on a on a very regular basis. And some of that, as we found out from a recent Marco Rubio statement, some of those discussions are uh secret. And then last month um Tulsi Gaba, director of national national intelligence banned sharing of uh intelligence on uh these discussions between Russia and the United States with the other four of the five eyes. So no sharing on that of that information with the British, Canadians, Australians and New Zealanders which is which is unprecedented. And then the she also um cancelled uh security clearances of of 37 officials. Trump disbanded a uh an organization, a group uh at the State Department that was pretty much set up in order to explore strategies about how to antagonize and destabilize Russia. Trump disbanded them. And so all these to to my mind that is all very positive. Is Trump a good guy? We'll find out in the end because he you know he controls his government to an extent. >> I think he controls it much more than he did in his first term. But I think that a lot depends on uh the on next year's midterm elections because as I as I mentioned, he only has a very thin majority in the Senate and a lot of those senators will stab him in the back first opportunities, first opportunity they have. >> So, uh, can a weak guy be a good guy? It's hard, but he's he's building up his strength. I think that indictments against Comey and probably coming indictments against many other people are going to moving closer in that direction. Uh I think that the when was this meeting of all the generals and admiral admirals of the US military? Uh, I think that's an interesting sign because, you know, many people assume that he's doing that because he's preparing to go to war somewhere, Ukraine or or Iran or something, >> Venezuela. >> But I I'm not sure that that would be the case because the United States has gone to war many many times without doing anything of the sort. I think that meeting has to do with internal questions with internal security because Trump's main battleground at this moment without a doubt is the political battle at home, political battle for power. he has to um shore up his power and ensure continuity because if this is all just four years and then it all falls by the wayside he will not be able to fulfill his intentions. So he has to make sure that uh you know after his term somebody like JD Vance uh is going to take over for another eight years and then the United States has a chance uh to extricate itself from all the all the insane imperial misadventures everywhere around the world and to do what they announced that they would do at the beginning. embrace multipolar integrations and break with the postworld war II um global order. They, you know, Marco Rubio said this explicitly that this is the policy of of of the government. So, we'll see. You know, um Trump is Trump is easy to hate. He's uh I don't know why he takes this borish, thuggish style in communications, in dealing with other countries. you know, Venezuela, Iran, China, and so forth. But I I try to focus not on style, but on substance, >> and when it comes to substance, I I I really am 60/40 in favor of Trump. >> Maybe quick followup before we move on to to the other two topics that I outlined earlier, but he he spoke in front of the UN General Assembly last week. And if you take the rhetoric out of it and some of the uh the style as you call it out of it, what what was his message? like the UN was established after World War II of course as well. Um what what do you make of that? Is the US going to break from it? Half the political spectators sort of assumed that following his speech that the US might actually pull out of the UN. >> Uh I doubt that the the United States will pull out of the UN. You know he was explicit that UN has great potential >> and I know from from Russian and Chinese policy makers that they still place great hope for humanity in the UN but it needs to be radically reformed. Uh honestly alternative is chaos you know uh everybody going to war against everybody for whatever reason. So the United States the United Nations is necessary and I think that Trump was explicit in endorsing that. He said the organization has great potential and I think that they may have discussed this with the Russians and the Chinese as well. Um, but uh I think that Trump's speech when you strip it of the of the you know intolerable style of his, you know, it's it's it's kind of without decorum unpolished, you know, like a juvenile thug basically. But the substance is definitely confirms break with the globalism because he uh he attacked u um the uncontrolled migrations and he accused the United Nations for being the instigator of this and he also called uh the climate change a um a hoax. And so I think this is a very very clear signal because these are these are uh you know two of the main in addition to pandemics and public health questions. Uh I think these are these are just a handful of the main um pol agenda items for the globalist rulesbased global order. >> So I think that Trump speech pretty much rejects that. >> Yeah. No like it. >> No. Go ahead. Go ahead. No, it felt to me a little bit like the Munich speech by JD Vance. A bit of a wakeup call trying to rattle the cage and just wake people up in general cuz one of the quotes he he he delivered was well all the UN does is write letters and never follow through. Um calling it a bit of a toothless tiger. Um doesn't mean the UN should get an army or anything but uh there there's there's certain substance to that what what he said in my opinion. So I think there's certain truth and that's why it reminded me a little bit um as by the M or it reminded me of the Munich conference that happened earlier this year. Um maybe that point. Um Alex, we have to move on real quick. We've got like four minutes left. Uh curious what your take is just on on Russia provoking NATO. Um I'm sitting here in Germany every day. I read a headline of some Russian jet um cruising through European or NATO airspace without uh yeah just not not being allowed to obviously. Like what what do you make of that? Is there any substance to it or is it just newspaper headlines? >> I I think it's pure propaganda. It's it's it's exactly the same thing as the as the as the Gouta um as as the um how do you call it? Chemical chemical attack by Bashar al-Assad in Syria back in 2015 or 16. Bashar al-Assad was on the verge of winning the war. he was really on the verge of winning and then for no reason whatsoever he decides to conduct a chemical attack against his own people. Uh, you know, obviously it was a it was a hoax uh because to make it was it was the last ditch effort to try to overthrow his regime and to unite the West to unite the West uh into intervening in Syria on the side of the of the uh you know the jihadis. In the same way we see that Ukraine is rapidly losing ground uh against Russian forces, that their defenses are collapsing. I know that the the the propaganda that Ukraine is winning, that Russia is losing is is off the charts. It's everywhere. It's just it's it's so unconvincing because it's being pumped up in the, you know, through a through a big hose into the social media, into the mainstream media and so forth. uh that they're clearly um trying to reverse the situation by finding a pretext for a an article 5 situation where they could uh bring the combined west together to uh to take on Russia and to escalate the war to a to a World War II proportions. >> No, we don't want that to happen. But as as you said, it clearly feels like propaganda. I had Douglas McGregor, Colonel Douglas McGregor on last week and uh he mentioned that the drone fly the drones flying into Poland weren't even Russian drones. It was something else like Yeah. So lots >> you could see in pictures these were these were styrofoam drones and that some of you know so they're very very light. They are Russians of make I think but they they are decoys that the Russians send along with the real armed drones in order to draw uh air defense fire >> and so uh because they're so light when they run out of fuel they just land somewhere they fall and enough of them I guess remained intact that the Ukrainians could pick them up fix them up and then prepare them for this. But why would Russia attack Polish airspace with dummy drones that don't have uh any any any warhead on them and that don't have any electronic surveillance equipment on it. What what would be the point? There would be no point other than, you know, the one side in this war whipping themselves onto into a frenzy to say the Russians are coming, the Russians are coming, we have to all come together and go to war. And that's exactly what they're doing. And so it's just like one thing after another. What I'm worried about because these are not only are they are these are such amateurish unconvincing false flags that I kind of worry that maybe they're being used to, how do you call it? Um to get us used to the idea that maybe the Russians are doing something. Who knows? And then they run polls to ask people, what do you think? is this? And then you see that a good segment of the population thinks like, yeah, yeah, this is the Russians that are doing this for some reason, >> because then you're preparing the terrain for a real um false flag attack, which could be a nuke going off over some European city, could be a dirty bomb somewhere. uh you know the the western intelligence has been present in Ukraine long enough under Russian fire to collect a lot of fragments of Russian missile. I would remind your viewers that uh nearly all the webcams in the city of London, not just the city of London, the whole metropolitan area of London have gone dark about a year ago in September 2024. They just all went dark all at the same time and they're still dark to this day. There's no explanation for this. It couldn't be a random event. You know, if if if they broke down, if they went online, if somebody switched, it would be a few off, a few on, they're all dark as if they don't want the world to watch something going on there. And they don't want the there to be footage of something that they might be planning. Scary, scary thought, Alex. And maybe one very last question is there like I was thinking of the movie Clear and Present Danger with Ben Affleck and uh I forgot the other actors, but there there was a back channel where they always verified facts with somebody at on the other side. Did where do we go and check? >> I think we have to I think we just have to pay close attention. I think we always have to keep uh the broadest possible context to this conflict in mind because that's the only way to decode what's nonsense and what's real. And that con context is that it's a war between two systems of governance. It's the war between the western uh colonialist imperialistic system of governance uh that is controlled by money lending oligarchies. City of London with its satellites on Wall Street, Frankfurt, Stockholm, Paris, Tokyo and so forth. Uh the other side is everybody else. you know, it's Russia, China, Iran, but it's also the populations of Western countries, too, because, you know, they're shoving uh CBDC's down our throats, digital IDs, um this non nonsensical LGBT propaganda, all kinds of divisions, uh uncontrolled migrations. Our countries are overrun by military-aged male migrants everywhere. Um, the climate change thing, the pandemics, it's it's, you know, like it feels like we're fighting a thousand battles, but it's not disconnected. It is all connected. And when you start connecting the dots, you see that in many of these battles, the same people appear on the other side. you know, people like Tony Blair, people like Jonathan Powell, um, tech mogul like Larry Ellison, um, I forget all the all all the names, but, you know, it's it's always the same people and somehow they're all very closely connected to the banking oligarchy, you know. Um, Tony Blair is Mr. City of London. Um, Emanuel Mcronone is the former Roshchild banker. Uh Friedick Merit is a former uh how do you call him Black Crock guy for now he's in the shadows but there was always Mario Draghi in the mix who is the former then you have Mark Carney former bank governor of the bank of England and Bank of Canada so it always it always kind of converges on the same relatively small group of people who have very disproportionate power and they're into climate change they're into pandemics public health migrations s um all this militant liberalism and and they're into into wars against Iran, against Russia, against China. So, it's it's the context that that that that can help us discern uh what's real and what's propaganda. >> Absolutely fantastic, Alex. What a wonderful conversation. We'll have to cut it a little bit short and can't wait to continue this in Frankfurt though in about 6 weeks time, November 14th and 15th. Can't wait to host you in Frankfurt and just continue this conversation. It's so fascinating. There's so many facets to it. I love discussing geopolitics cuz it's it feels like watching a spy movie play out in front of your own eyes. It's it's kind of scary. It's also fascinating, but it's mostly scary to be honest. Um, where can we send our audience in the meantime to follow more of your work, Alex? Oh, I have uh uh you have kindly put my Substack on uh under my name which I expect will be visible to viewers. I also have another so this is the daily market newsletter which provides uh trend following signals covering some 18 or 19 global markets. I also have a personal subst called Alex Craner Substack where I publish a bit less frequently but maybe more thoroughly researched um and more better refined articles and I'm also active on X. My handle is naked hedgy. >> Fantastic. Alex, thank you so much for joining us. Very very insightful. I hope this helps a lot of people out there understand what is going on and decipher some of the headlines that we're seeing on a daily basis. So really appreciate that Alex and uh everybody else. Thanks so much for tuning in. I hope you enjoyed this conversation with Alex Grina. If you did, why don't you join us in Frankfurt? It's free for investors. We'll also be joined by 35 mining companies that are looking to pitch their equity stories. Some of them have really interesting production stories, exploration stories, or actually all of them do. Why don't you join us? Germanoldshow.com. Free registration. Can't wait to see you there. And if you have any comments for us, put them down below as well. We do want to hear from you. Hit that like and subscribe button. Means a lot to us and it is free. Thank you so much for tuning in. We'll be back with lots more. Take care out there. [Music]
Delay Tactics Disguised as Peace | Alex Krainer
Summary
Transcript
President Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu sat together in the White House yesterday and came up with a plan to bring peace to Gaza. What does that mean? What are the 20 points that they have discussed and laid out? And what are what is the impact? Is it even feasible to introduce this plan? I've invited Alex Kriner on to the program. He's a geopolitical analyst, but also former hedge fund manager, and he's going to help us put some perspective around what is happening. We've also got some other topics lined up if we get to them. Russia attacking NATO, but also what is happening between the US and China. Are there some side deals over Taiwan happening? Really curious what his thoughts are on those topics as well. We have 30 minutes to discuss all of that and we'll do our very best to fit it all in. Before I switch over to my guest, hit that like and subscribe button though. It's a free way to support our channel. We much much appreciate it. So, thanks so much for doing that. Now, Alex, it's great to welcome you back on Soore Financially. Thank you so much for joining us. >> Thank you for having me, Kai. Always a pleasure to join you and warm greetings to your audience. >> Yeah, thanks so much, Alex. Before we get started, real quick info as well to our audience members. You will be joining us in Frankfurt at Deutsche Go Messa November 14th and 15th. Really, >> really excited to get your geopolitical insights on everything. So, and and to meet in person. We haven't met in person yet. So, I'm really looking forward to that. >> Yeah, I really look forward to it. Yes, >> it'll be great. Um, Alex, as I mentioned, 30 minutes. We got to run through it. I feel like I should put a timer at the top top left corner to get us going. But um President Trump, Benjamin Nachu, Netanyahu met in in in the White House yesterday and presented a peace plan for Gaza. I've got the the 20 points here. I'll show them real quick. Um what what do you make of uh the talks? What what is what do you make of the outcome? Uh I I have to say it seems to me that this is little more than uh a way to buy time. Uh it reminds me of the of the road map to peace from about 20 years ago that you know George W. Bush was negotiating which obviously led nowhere. It was just another exercise in in time wasting. Uh with this one, I feel it's a very very long shot. And I think that Trump is probably forcing down everybody's throat to buy time. And the reason why he needs to buy time is because he doesn't want to go to the war against Iran. And he is heavily pressured at home politically to take on Iran for Israel. And you know, we have to part with the illusion that, you know, Trump as the president of the United States can just snap his fingers and do whatever he wants. There's a, you know, there's a Congress there. Uh, and as we know, uh, the US Congress is Israeli occupied territory. Uh, Benjamin Netanyahu can get more support out of US Congress than Donald Trump can. I think he Netanyahu controls about 70 between 70 and 80 out of a 100 votes in US Senate. Trump barely has over 50 and those senators are not all loyal to Trump. So it's a and then you know we must not remember uh the 70ome million uh Christian evangelicals plus Zionist Jews who are a tremendous political force in the United States. So that is where the pressure uh to take on Iran is coming from. And it seems to me that this new, you know, road map to peace is nothing but uh uh a way to buy time and avoid war. Obviously, Benjamin Netanyahu is not very excited about it and implementation of this plan risks uh splitting up his coalition, which could be the end of his government. This could this this will be very contentious in Israel. Second, it's uh it's assuming that they can disarm Hamas or that Hamas will agree to be disarmed, which will never happen because by that act, Hamas would have to put themselves at the mercy of their enemy and of all the forces in the region that have betrayed them time and again, you know, and then you have to force this uh on all other actors in the region. namely uh Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Qatar. Trump has even been talking about having Iran join the Abraham Accords because that would be necessary for this to to hold together. And I think that it's it's such a long shot that I I'm not even sure why bother. And so the only the only way that I can explain this to myself is that Trump is simply buying time to avoid going to war uh against Iran. Uh as they weigh out Israel because Israel really is on very thin ice. uh not only are they losing um their eight wars growing weaker and weaker by the day, but they're also rapidly losing support in the United States. So, it's, you know, it could be game over for Israel. Uh, and it's going to be either that or there's going to be a general war in the Middle East against Iran. Unfortunately for Trump, for the Israelis, for the British who are ultimately behind all this, they can they can go to to a war like this, but they cannot predict its outcome. >> They really cannot predict its outcomes. So it's a it's a it's a high level of desperation at this point and I think that for that reason Trump doesn't want to have anything to do with it. So that's why he pretty much armwisted Netanyahu into supporting this 20point peace plan. But I think that Netanyahu is going to get uh blasted uh at home and it probably Israel probably won't even begin to implement it. Yeah, I've been scanning the news already and the the right the far right in Israel is already pushing back aggressively calling it a failure of diplomacy >> obviously >> right so exactly what you've mentioned it seems like the government is might might be falling apart over this um but interesting followup maybe you you mentioned Trump strong armed Netanyahu into potentially accepting this peace plan um yet you earlier in the conversation you mentioned that Netanyahu is probably in a stronger position than Trump just based on polit political um access perhaps or political what do you call it capability maybe I don't know um but what does Trump have over Netanyahu to push him in into agreeing to this drug discovery is broken 90% of drugs fail it's slow it's expensive and the so-called AI solutions out there they don't work because biology is way too complex for basic pattern recognition that's why Hive caught my attention they've built something totally different hive technology think of it like Google for biology instead of raw sequences and blackbox outputs. 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Check out their link in the bio below. >> Well, uh I I I think I need to clarify. I don't think that Netanyahu is in a stronger position politically. Netanyahu has greater influence over the American lawmakers because, you know, remember how most American congressmen have at least one or more um Apac handlers who practically call them on a daily basis and tell them how to vote and what policies to support. uh how many many US congressmen have Israeli flags in front of their offices with with bumper stickers, we support Israel and things like this. And then when Netanyahu turns up at the US Senate or sorry, joint sessions of US Congress, uh he could be reading falafel recipes and he would get 50 standing ovations. Trump doesn't get that treatment. But Trump is not at war on eight fronts. Trump is at war on on ma mainly one front and that is the occult oligarchy that's still running the western world for the for for for for the time being and so obviously this this power structure needs a regime change in Iran then they need a regime change in Russia then they need a regime change in Pakistan and in China and uh you know they need all these dominoes to fall so they need Israel uh to help or to bring about the regime change in Iran. The Israelis themselves have been saying, "Well, as soon as we're done with Iran, we're going on to Pakistan." At the same time, and you can tell now that it's all the same forces, uh they're still trying to um regime change Russia. And if they managed to regime change Russia, then they would use Russia against China in exactly the same way as they used Ukraine against Russia. So this is how the dominoes are intended to fall with the with the with the ultimate objective of uh taking control of Eurasian landmass completely and to install client regime regimes everywhere and for nations that are potentially a threat to the western oligarchy to bulcanize them and to turn them into into little colonies, little client states uh as they already expressed their intention to do with Russia. Uh it is very clear that Trump is not cooperating on this agenda. Uh and to me it seems that his agendas with with Israel and with with with Gaza are only a delaying tactic. And even if you, you know, if you if you take into account the idea of doing something with Gaza in the as a as a as a as a massive real estate development project, if you think about it for two seconds, you realize that it doesn't make any sense whatsoever. It is completely bonkers and insane because you know who would go and invest billions into some kind of a development that it's on disputable legal grounds in a in a hostile environment because that would be a very long-term project, >> right? You wouldn't be doing that for a year or five years. This is something that would be for a generation or two or or 10. And so you would have to make sure that the whole project is on legally sound foundations because otherwise you can't sell it, right? So it would be a write-off. And then even if you've penagled that every every regime in the region is your own client regime, you know, like like Jordan, like Syria today, uh that all can change very quickly. So if you if you if you brought this in front of any investor, they would tell you, you must be mad. Besides, the world is very big. Why on earth, if I wanted to develop like a like a like a Mediterranean Riviera, why on earth would I do it in Gaza? I could do it in Egypt or in Spain or >> Greenspring or something like that. Yeah. Why Gaza? So the whole thing is is just So, such a long shot that I I I I think that clearly what they're really trying to accomplish is not even close to what they're telling us that they're doing. >> My mind went immediately to the Bin Laden family in Saudi Arabia because they're big project and real estate developers. But uh probably the wrong angle to take this. But uh you would need a strong local partner though uh in in that regard and that's why I went to Saudi Arabia, Bin Laden family, which of course the US has interesting links with of course uh in in the past. Uh but I'm not sure if that's the right approach here and that's the right angle. This is probably maybe even taking it a little too far here. Would would you agree? >> Uh yeah. Yeah, I would absolutely agree. And so and and you know so long as the axis of resistance is there and alive and kicking which it is uh the nothing none none of that makes any sense you know uh Hamas is there hasn't been defeated will not disarm I am 100% certain of that uh Hezbollah is still there you know Israelis can can you know like thump their chest that they have destroyed Hezbollah they not >> uh Ansarala is still there in Yemen with rockets that can reach uh Israel and Gaza. >> Uh you know Gaza if if it were in in the hands of western real estate developers. Um Jordanian regime is on thin ice. It could you know it it's it's not long for this world. Uh Syria, God only knows, but we know that large chunks of Syrian Arab army uh went to Iran and Iraq and some may be hiding within Syria today as well. Whole tank divisions went over. Uh they're there, they're intact, they're waiting. Iran hasn't been regime changed and they will not buy into Abraham Accords. So what are you going to do? And then your military supremacy in the region is uh you know long gone. You don't have it anymore. And uh so I think that the well let's say that the very positive outlook on this is that Trump is avoiding war against Iran. >> And I think that's a that's an encouraging sign. And you know many people will say like oh yeah but you know he bombed Iran. Yeah, you know that that was a war like World Wrestling Federation is martial arts >> because you know they they talked to each other. Uh Trump told them at some point, look, I can't hold back anymore. I have to, you know, do something. Uh we're going to be bombing these places in 48 hours. You have 48 hours to evacuate whatever may be important to you. And so the Iranians did. And then you had a couple of missiles and a couple of bombs that were dropped on on these sites which caused some damage, but it it it didn't cause a whole lot of damage. Israelis caused a lot of damage by assassinating a whole bunch of people uh in the Iranian government and military. But um I kind of predicted that. I said, you know, before that happened, I said either there will be no attack on Iran or there's going to be a fake one, meaning they're going to do something that looks spectacular but isn't going to achieve anything very substantial. And we're going to know for sure by the way the Iranians retaliate. And when the Iranians retaliated, they they also pre, you know, pre-announced the move. They gave the Americans time to evacuate from their Qatari base. Uh so there was zero uh casualties and Trump even uh publicly thanked the Iranians for the courtesy. So that was that was just um a World Wrestling Federation encounter for the for the entertainment of the of the media in the West. But it wasn't a real war, which you know, which to me was a sign that Trump is not on board with this global, you know, uh, knocking down domino after domino in order to establish full hegemony over the Eurasian land mass. >> You're making Trump out to be a good guy in this scenario. Is that a right characterization here? cuz he he's going against the cabal here um that seems to be behind this that is pushing for that agenda and he back back to his original term like he's trying to drain the swamp. Uh is that something that that he's doing right now by by pushing by delaying and maybe playing that political kabuki theater here? >> Well u this is very difficult to say you know either he is or he's not. So that would be like a 50-50 proposition. But I I paid very close attention to Trump uh to his uh to members of his team, to their interview statements, um to their policy moves. And I'm I'm not exactly 50/50. I would say I'm more 60/40. Uh because there are, you know, there are many things uh that he has done that suggest to me that he is changing the course of American foreign policy. And it's a huge change of course because it's practically breaking with the continuity of the past um 70ome years like from World War II basically. And um one one the perhaps the most most important thing he has done is to reestablish constructive cooperative relationship with Russia because you know as as Germany's former foreign minister Ziggma Gabriel said this is far and away the most important and most sensitive relationship in the world for the future of the of of the world and and the future of humanity And it's absolutely unforgivable that uh Biden administration completely closed the door on this relationship for for three years because it put us all much much closer to the risk of nuclear annihilation. And I think that with Trump and their uh very regular contacts with the Russian counterparts, you know, it's not just Trump calling Putin and meeting. I think they had at least nine or 10 calls so far, but then their various delegations are meeting and holding conferences on a on a very regular basis. And some of that, as we found out from a recent Marco Rubio statement, some of those discussions are uh secret. And then last month um Tulsi Gaba, director of national national intelligence banned sharing of uh intelligence on uh these discussions between Russia and the United States with the other four of the five eyes. So no sharing on that of that information with the British, Canadians, Australians and New Zealanders which is which is unprecedented. And then the she also um cancelled uh security clearances of of 37 officials. Trump disbanded a uh an organization, a group uh at the State Department that was pretty much set up in order to explore strategies about how to antagonize and destabilize Russia. Trump disbanded them. And so all these to to my mind that is all very positive. Is Trump a good guy? We'll find out in the end because he you know he controls his government to an extent. >> I think he controls it much more than he did in his first term. But I think that a lot depends on uh the on next year's midterm elections because as I as I mentioned, he only has a very thin majority in the Senate and a lot of those senators will stab him in the back first opportunities, first opportunity they have. >> So, uh, can a weak guy be a good guy? It's hard, but he's he's building up his strength. I think that indictments against Comey and probably coming indictments against many other people are going to moving closer in that direction. Uh I think that the when was this meeting of all the generals and admiral admirals of the US military? Uh, I think that's an interesting sign because, you know, many people assume that he's doing that because he's preparing to go to war somewhere, Ukraine or or Iran or something, >> Venezuela. >> But I I'm not sure that that would be the case because the United States has gone to war many many times without doing anything of the sort. I think that meeting has to do with internal questions with internal security because Trump's main battleground at this moment without a doubt is the political battle at home, political battle for power. he has to um shore up his power and ensure continuity because if this is all just four years and then it all falls by the wayside he will not be able to fulfill his intentions. So he has to make sure that uh you know after his term somebody like JD Vance uh is going to take over for another eight years and then the United States has a chance uh to extricate itself from all the all the insane imperial misadventures everywhere around the world and to do what they announced that they would do at the beginning. embrace multipolar integrations and break with the postworld war II um global order. They, you know, Marco Rubio said this explicitly that this is the policy of of of the government. So, we'll see. You know, um Trump is Trump is easy to hate. He's uh I don't know why he takes this borish, thuggish style in communications, in dealing with other countries. you know, Venezuela, Iran, China, and so forth. But I I try to focus not on style, but on substance, >> and when it comes to substance, I I I really am 60/40 in favor of Trump. >> Maybe quick followup before we move on to to the other two topics that I outlined earlier, but he he spoke in front of the UN General Assembly last week. And if you take the rhetoric out of it and some of the uh the style as you call it out of it, what what was his message? like the UN was established after World War II of course as well. Um what what do you make of that? Is the US going to break from it? Half the political spectators sort of assumed that following his speech that the US might actually pull out of the UN. >> Uh I doubt that the the United States will pull out of the UN. You know he was explicit that UN has great potential >> and I know from from Russian and Chinese policy makers that they still place great hope for humanity in the UN but it needs to be radically reformed. Uh honestly alternative is chaos you know uh everybody going to war against everybody for whatever reason. So the United States the United Nations is necessary and I think that Trump was explicit in endorsing that. He said the organization has great potential and I think that they may have discussed this with the Russians and the Chinese as well. Um, but uh I think that Trump's speech when you strip it of the of the you know intolerable style of his, you know, it's it's it's kind of without decorum unpolished, you know, like a juvenile thug basically. But the substance is definitely confirms break with the globalism because he uh he attacked u um the uncontrolled migrations and he accused the United Nations for being the instigator of this and he also called uh the climate change a um a hoax. And so I think this is a very very clear signal because these are these are uh you know two of the main in addition to pandemics and public health questions. Uh I think these are these are just a handful of the main um pol agenda items for the globalist rulesbased global order. >> So I think that Trump speech pretty much rejects that. >> Yeah. No like it. >> No. Go ahead. Go ahead. No, it felt to me a little bit like the Munich speech by JD Vance. A bit of a wakeup call trying to rattle the cage and just wake people up in general cuz one of the quotes he he he delivered was well all the UN does is write letters and never follow through. Um calling it a bit of a toothless tiger. Um doesn't mean the UN should get an army or anything but uh there there's there's certain substance to that what what he said in my opinion. So I think there's certain truth and that's why it reminded me a little bit um as by the M or it reminded me of the Munich conference that happened earlier this year. Um maybe that point. Um Alex, we have to move on real quick. We've got like four minutes left. Uh curious what your take is just on on Russia provoking NATO. Um I'm sitting here in Germany every day. I read a headline of some Russian jet um cruising through European or NATO airspace without uh yeah just not not being allowed to obviously. Like what what do you make of that? Is there any substance to it or is it just newspaper headlines? >> I I think it's pure propaganda. It's it's it's exactly the same thing as the as the as the Gouta um as as the um how do you call it? Chemical chemical attack by Bashar al-Assad in Syria back in 2015 or 16. Bashar al-Assad was on the verge of winning the war. he was really on the verge of winning and then for no reason whatsoever he decides to conduct a chemical attack against his own people. Uh, you know, obviously it was a it was a hoax uh because to make it was it was the last ditch effort to try to overthrow his regime and to unite the West to unite the West uh into intervening in Syria on the side of the of the uh you know the jihadis. In the same way we see that Ukraine is rapidly losing ground uh against Russian forces, that their defenses are collapsing. I know that the the the propaganda that Ukraine is winning, that Russia is losing is is off the charts. It's everywhere. It's just it's it's so unconvincing because it's being pumped up in the, you know, through a through a big hose into the social media, into the mainstream media and so forth. uh that they're clearly um trying to reverse the situation by finding a pretext for a an article 5 situation where they could uh bring the combined west together to uh to take on Russia and to escalate the war to a to a World War II proportions. >> No, we don't want that to happen. But as as you said, it clearly feels like propaganda. I had Douglas McGregor, Colonel Douglas McGregor on last week and uh he mentioned that the drone fly the drones flying into Poland weren't even Russian drones. It was something else like Yeah. So lots >> you could see in pictures these were these were styrofoam drones and that some of you know so they're very very light. They are Russians of make I think but they they are decoys that the Russians send along with the real armed drones in order to draw uh air defense fire >> and so uh because they're so light when they run out of fuel they just land somewhere they fall and enough of them I guess remained intact that the Ukrainians could pick them up fix them up and then prepare them for this. But why would Russia attack Polish airspace with dummy drones that don't have uh any any any warhead on them and that don't have any electronic surveillance equipment on it. What what would be the point? There would be no point other than, you know, the one side in this war whipping themselves onto into a frenzy to say the Russians are coming, the Russians are coming, we have to all come together and go to war. And that's exactly what they're doing. And so it's just like one thing after another. What I'm worried about because these are not only are they are these are such amateurish unconvincing false flags that I kind of worry that maybe they're being used to, how do you call it? Um to get us used to the idea that maybe the Russians are doing something. Who knows? And then they run polls to ask people, what do you think? is this? And then you see that a good segment of the population thinks like, yeah, yeah, this is the Russians that are doing this for some reason, >> because then you're preparing the terrain for a real um false flag attack, which could be a nuke going off over some European city, could be a dirty bomb somewhere. uh you know the the western intelligence has been present in Ukraine long enough under Russian fire to collect a lot of fragments of Russian missile. I would remind your viewers that uh nearly all the webcams in the city of London, not just the city of London, the whole metropolitan area of London have gone dark about a year ago in September 2024. They just all went dark all at the same time and they're still dark to this day. There's no explanation for this. It couldn't be a random event. You know, if if if they broke down, if they went online, if somebody switched, it would be a few off, a few on, they're all dark as if they don't want the world to watch something going on there. And they don't want the there to be footage of something that they might be planning. Scary, scary thought, Alex. And maybe one very last question is there like I was thinking of the movie Clear and Present Danger with Ben Affleck and uh I forgot the other actors, but there there was a back channel where they always verified facts with somebody at on the other side. Did where do we go and check? >> I think we have to I think we just have to pay close attention. I think we always have to keep uh the broadest possible context to this conflict in mind because that's the only way to decode what's nonsense and what's real. And that con context is that it's a war between two systems of governance. It's the war between the western uh colonialist imperialistic system of governance uh that is controlled by money lending oligarchies. City of London with its satellites on Wall Street, Frankfurt, Stockholm, Paris, Tokyo and so forth. Uh the other side is everybody else. you know, it's Russia, China, Iran, but it's also the populations of Western countries, too, because, you know, they're shoving uh CBDC's down our throats, digital IDs, um this non nonsensical LGBT propaganda, all kinds of divisions, uh uncontrolled migrations. Our countries are overrun by military-aged male migrants everywhere. Um, the climate change thing, the pandemics, it's it's, you know, like it feels like we're fighting a thousand battles, but it's not disconnected. It is all connected. And when you start connecting the dots, you see that in many of these battles, the same people appear on the other side. you know, people like Tony Blair, people like Jonathan Powell, um, tech mogul like Larry Ellison, um, I forget all the all all the names, but, you know, it's it's always the same people and somehow they're all very closely connected to the banking oligarchy, you know. Um, Tony Blair is Mr. City of London. Um, Emanuel Mcronone is the former Roshchild banker. Uh Friedick Merit is a former uh how do you call him Black Crock guy for now he's in the shadows but there was always Mario Draghi in the mix who is the former then you have Mark Carney former bank governor of the bank of England and Bank of Canada so it always it always kind of converges on the same relatively small group of people who have very disproportionate power and they're into climate change they're into pandemics public health migrations s um all this militant liberalism and and they're into into wars against Iran, against Russia, against China. So, it's it's the context that that that that can help us discern uh what's real and what's propaganda. >> Absolutely fantastic, Alex. What a wonderful conversation. We'll have to cut it a little bit short and can't wait to continue this in Frankfurt though in about 6 weeks time, November 14th and 15th. Can't wait to host you in Frankfurt and just continue this conversation. It's so fascinating. There's so many facets to it. I love discussing geopolitics cuz it's it feels like watching a spy movie play out in front of your own eyes. It's it's kind of scary. It's also fascinating, but it's mostly scary to be honest. Um, where can we send our audience in the meantime to follow more of your work, Alex? Oh, I have uh uh you have kindly put my Substack on uh under my name which I expect will be visible to viewers. I also have another so this is the daily market newsletter which provides uh trend following signals covering some 18 or 19 global markets. I also have a personal subst called Alex Craner Substack where I publish a bit less frequently but maybe more thoroughly researched um and more better refined articles and I'm also active on X. My handle is naked hedgy. >> Fantastic. Alex, thank you so much for joining us. Very very insightful. I hope this helps a lot of people out there understand what is going on and decipher some of the headlines that we're seeing on a daily basis. So really appreciate that Alex and uh everybody else. Thanks so much for tuning in. I hope you enjoyed this conversation with Alex Grina. If you did, why don't you join us in Frankfurt? It's free for investors. We'll also be joined by 35 mining companies that are looking to pitch their equity stories. Some of them have really interesting production stories, exploration stories, or actually all of them do. Why don't you join us? Germanoldshow.com. Free registration. Can't wait to see you there. And if you have any comments for us, put them down below as well. We do want to hear from you. Hit that like and subscribe button. Means a lot to us and it is free. Thank you so much for tuning in. We'll be back with lots more. Take care out there. [Music]