This Breakout Could Send Gold to $4,500: Technical Outlook I Chris Vermeulen
Summary
Gold Market Outlook: Gold has reached an all-time high of $3,650, and technical analysis suggests it could rise to $4,500, driven by strong momentum and favorable macroeconomic conditions.
Silver and Mining Stocks: Silver is trailing gold but is expected to catch up, potentially reaching $50 per ounce. Mining stocks, particularly silver miners, are showing strong performance, with significant gains expected in the near term.
S&P 500 and Market Sentiment: The S&P 500 is at an all-time high, but the market is in a state of limbo, with investors uncertain about the Federal Reserve's next moves. Despite this, the overall trend points to higher prices.
Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators: There is speculation about potential rate cuts by the Fed, but no significant changes are expected soon. The market is reacting to economic news with short-term volatility, but long-term trends remain upward.
Dollar Index and Bonds: The dollar index is stabilizing, with expectations of a rate cut potentially leading to a decline in the dollar's value. Bonds are showing upward movement, indicating market anticipation of rate cuts.
Investment Strategy: Investors are advised to focus on chart patterns and trends rather than macroeconomic predictions. Gold is highlighted as a fresh opportunity with significant upside potential.
Market Cycles and Historical Comparisons: Current market conditions are compared to 2007, with gold and silver showing strong performance as potential indicators of an upcoming market shift.
Transcript
Gold is at another all-time high 3650 as we speak up 1.5% on Monday morning as we record this. Silver is tracking behind about up about a percent 4140. The precious metals are rallying. S&P 500 is in an all-time high and we need to take a closer look at the charts. I've invited Chris Vermulan back of the technical traders to run us through his chart analysis. What what is happening in the markets? How much room is left? And Chris and I talked briefly off camera. But we're also going to take a look at some of the mining stocks, meaning the the silver miners index, GDX, GDXJ, just to see what the performance there is and if there's anything left to be gained, of course. Uh before I switch over to my guest, hit that like and subscribe button. It helps us out tremendously reach a wider audience and we much much appreciate it. Now, Chris, it is great to welcome you back on the show. Thanks so much for joining us. >> Oh, thanks for having me, Kai. Always a pleasure. >> Yeah, how how was your summer? Let's let's start maybe with a bit of small talk, Chris, before we dive into the technicals. But, um, how was your summer? How how busy was it looking at some of the charts? It was couldn't have been too busy. >> This summer was great all around. The equities markets moved up and to the right. Gold traded sideways, building a launchpad, which it has now broken out of and launched from. Had a great time with the kids and the family. It was good weather. I mean, it really was pretty much a golden summer across the board. So, uh, when we look at most assets, everything, even the dollar index is actually looking like it's trying to put in a bottom and, uh, we'll probably tie into that, but I I pretty much everything right now is pointing to higher pricing, going north on the charts. And, uh, it's it's kind of exciting. I a lot of people are waiting for the Fed to drop the drop the hammer to see what's going to happen and then see how the ALOS and the big funds react to it. But, uh, everything is looking pretty good at this point. Yeah, like you you just touched on I was going to ask you as well, Chris, but maybe the macro picture just real quick. What is influencing markets right now from your perspective the most? Of course, we'll look at the technicals here in a second, but you you just touched on the Fed. What what should we be paying attention to from that macro side? >> Yeah, I mean, I'm not good with macro because it never makes much sense to me. You never know how the same piece of data like now won't have the same reaction later down the road in a different mindset of investor, a different market environment. So, it's really difficult. But right now, I mean, I I read something earlier, people saying the Fed looks like they're going to cut half a basis point. Somebody's saying uh, you know, half a percentage point because jobless claims or unemployment's going up. And you look at the numbers. I mean, we don't have a jobless problem. Uh, it's so minor. I don't really see a whole lot happening to be honest. If anything, they might drop, you know, a quarter basis point, but I still don't see or feel the pain for the Fed to have to step up and start shooting off these bullets to try and save the markets. And the way I see it is usually the markets falls apart and then the Fed starts, you know, dropping um quarter basis points to try and save it through there. And I just don't see any pain yet for them to do that. So, I don't I don't really see anything changing. I think people are going to be maybe be upset if there is no change because so many people are are asking for a rate cut. But um uh yeah, it's going to be interesting. People are waiting for it and I there'll probably be some disappointment. There always will be whatever it comes out as. But uh I wouldn't trade based on what you think is going to happen. I would just stick with the charts because they really are showing the direction and and which direction you should be focused on. >> Yeah. Well, the market seems to be telling us that bad news is good news based on the reaction as you were saying. $6,500 or 6,500 points in the S&P 500 already and move moving higher. A lot of euphoria in the charts. Um Chris, what is the market pricing in? Maybe we'll start with the S&P 500 and I'll I'll bring it up as well. But what what is the market pricing in here? >> Yeah, I mean right now the market is in limbo. I think the market is trying to figure out what the Fed is going to do. I think a lot of most people are too tied up in the news. They're too tied up on economic data and the Fed. And so that's why the market I think is choppy here. It's it's it's inconsistent where we have some there's a natural upward bias but then we see big institutions we see some heavy selling days where looks like people are unloading portfolios large chunks. Um it's really people in limbo. The market is still pointing to higher pricing. Like when we look at the daily chart on the right hand side here we're we're kind of having this rising kind of wedge and it's kind of like a running correction. So instead of a bull flag that runs up and then flags in a in a controlled way and then has that second half of that move, a running correction or a wedge like this is is a very volatile type of pattern. Meaning when it comes to an end, it's going to be very sharp. And the big question right now is is it going to have a sharp crack and fall and decline or is it going to have a big pop and and rally? And so that's kind of the phase we're in. I need to expect there's going to be some some big movements. Now, the the market is pointing still to higher pricing. The trends are up on pretty much across the board. Even when we look at the short-term basis, this 30inut chart on the lefth hand side, these lime green areas is when the S&P 500 has dropped into oversold territories. They've also dropped to this pink moving average, which is the same as this 20-day moving average on the daily chart. So, these two lows and whenever the market's getting overbought based on these indicators, these tools, we see the market step back in and get bought right back up. So these waves of panic, these waves of fear quickly get bought up by some some big institutions. Um so right now we're just kind of in limbo, but I would expect the market to to break and rally to the upside and break out to the upside uh going forward. But you're right, you know, the market when we look at the price of gold, gold itself is warning us that the world is is more or less preparing. it's telling us something bad is happening and we're just waiting for that piece of news or that event that that kind of shoe to drop uh to cause the be the name for the next financial reset which I think is is coming sooner than later but you definitely don't want to fight this trend and gold is telling us something bad is brewing but you can't bet and try and pick a top because this market climbs a wall of worry and um it can keep doing that for a lot longer than most people can stay solvent. Yeah. No, absolutely. Never fight the Fed or you should not fight the Fed is probably one of the themes that we need to be paying attention to here. Um, one one thing I've noticed and I'm not sure if the charts sort of correlate as well, but the second jumbo cuts were on the table. Fed Governor Chris Waller brought those up, the market, gold in particular, the S&P 500 seemed to take another leap forward or jump forward. And look looking at uh your your chart here. It seems like there's a green candle sort of mid August which is the time around it happened I think. Um is there a longer green? Yeah, exactly. Right there is a longer green candle uh upwards. I'm curious if there's if you see that correlation as well where the macro and the the charts sort of collide. >> Yeah. Well, yeah, definitely. I think people were getting real nervous leading into the news and then we we hear it and we get that pop and the relief. When people are nervous, they usually sell stuff or when they're uncertain and then once they're the news hits the table and they're like, "Oh, okay. Now I know the answer." You know, people are don't feel fearful anymore and they get back in. So, there's no doubt economic news and things like that sway the markets, but it's usually short-term dips and blips. It's usually not a trend reversal type of move. Um, and you know, when you look at this, the market is, you know, it's looking primed and ready to to to push higher. And, uh, I'm pretty excited. I mean, we're long the markets here and uh everything is still pointing to higher prices. >> Yeah. August 22nd was the Juron Pal speech in Jackson Hole as well. I think that's where the green candle actually is. Yeah, exactly. Right. Then that's when you open the door wide to Fed cuts. Um in terms of volume, just looking at the um the volume chart down below as well. Doesn't seem like there's a massive breakout in volume. Um there are little blips um on on the radar screen. Anything that we should be looking at in terms of volume there, um Chris? Um, I mean the the we've got three high bars of green of green bars here, meaning there's some pretty good buying going on. I think the volume doesn't say a whole lot, although it is bullish. The this the higher volume green bars say those are days of accumulation. So, people are building positions and um yeah, I get right now it's just wait and see. Just have to let the market mature. There's no need to pick a direction. I mean, you should be long if anything here and and just let it unfold, which it should resolve to the upside. talking about like volatility and maybe uh limbo, the VIX, it's pretty much dead. The VIX patient if you were to use it as a heartbeat monitor um trading or the VIX at 15 is um unbelievably flat uh right now. So it also points to what you've been saying that we are in limbo. We're waiting for something to happen. >> Yeah. And it's funny if you take if you look at the VIX, I mean it's usually has this you have a spike of fear and then once that euphoric that panic, you know, dissipates, it just bleeds out. But look, if you just look at this chart pattern and then I flip over to say uh the S&P 500. So this is exact same time frame. And then I just flip the scale of the S&P 500. We just invert it. It's pretty much the same. I mean, uh, you know, right now there's there's not a lot of fear in the market, believe it or not. VIX is low, people aren't seeing volatility. And uh the tr when the VIX is low, the market can just keep going higher and higher and higher. And that's really just kind of what we're letting letting unfold. A lot of people are trying to pick a top. A lot of people are betting on falling pricing, and this type of price action has got them thinking it's getting close, which it could be, but uh you definitely don't want to get in front of this uh because there really isn't a whole lot of fear yet. And um this market is is trending up. Yeah, I I sometimes look at the CNN fear and greed index and while you were chatting or talking here, I was looking at it's it's perfectly in the middle. It's 52. It's neutral. It exactly the charts describe exactly what you're saying and the the sentiment indicators. I think the fear and greed index is like seven indicators combined, I believe. And >> yeah, I I like to look at also the uh the put call ratio. It's a really weird funky looking chart if people don't look at it, but uh more or less it's it's telling us there isn't there isn't a ton of fear. We're kind of in neutral territory. Nothing too significant. But there's these extremes on this chart that tell us when the market is when when there's a big green spike up here. You know, people are buying put options. They're betting on falling pricing. And that's usually that you're near a market low, an oversold market condition, and we see it rally. And right now, I mean, the put call ratio is not giving any insight either. So, the market is low volatility. It is trending up. And um and it's the same with the NASDAQ. When you look at the the NASDAQ 100, it's it's been trading more sideways than upwards. Um with the big meg mega7s kind of some of them taking a bit of a backseat and holding it down, but overall it's still a bullish pattern and pointing to higher pricing. >> Just looking for impulse here. Uh the Dixie, the dollar index, I'm curious what you're seeing from there because it seems to be stabilizing as well from what I've been seeing. I'm curious what your thoughts are on the Dixie. Yeah, the dollar index is trying to figure out if it if it's putting in a bottom here. It's it it looks like a bottoming type of pattern, but it has not bottomed yet. Uh more or less, it's kind of I think a lot of people are thinking, you know, there's going to be a rate cut, which could m make the dollar lose some value. So, that's kind of what we're starting to see is that I think that is the the belief is there's going to be a rate cut. Usually, the dollar is going to want to pull back. And if there's a rate cut, we're also probably going to see like bonds move higher. And if we take a look at bonds like TLT, you can see the last four days bonds are just shooting higher. Everyone seems to be moving in believing there's going to be a rate cut. And um there could be. The question is, is it is it zero? Is it a quarter or is it half? Uh we're just going to find out, but people are front running the news and trying to get positioned in for it. Of course, the news is going to hit. we'll probably see a pull back, but um the dollar, you know, people are betting on a rate cut, higher bond pricing, and they're expecting the dollar to fall, which will be kind of will be interesting to see because, you know, if we go back and we look at this chart, there's a comparison chart, the left one here. I'm going to go back to 2007 to the stock market high. We just go back here and I'll just zoom way in. So, if we go back, the the candlestick chart here, Kai, is the uh S&P 500 weekly chart. The S&P 500 was hitting new all-time highs just before it put in a major top and started to crash. Now, the yellow line is gold. And you can see we're in a very similar type of situation. We had a big pullback this year. We had a rally. We're pushing to new highs with stocks. 2007, we had a sharp pullback. And then we've had a rally and we're pushing to new highs. Well, gold for both of these time frames are like the top performers long term. They are picking up the slack. Gold is is performing very well. And what's really interesting, if we go back to these this time window on 2007 on the left chart there, we look at the the Dixie, the dollar, it was it had sold off. It was one of the most hated currencies. Everybody says it's going to be worthless, blah blah blah blah blah, all of that stuff. And then we come over here to where we are now on this this other chart. I get this uh to load here and we take a look at the dollar index. Dollar index is back down at the bottom. It's one of the most hated currencies. Everybody says it's going to zero. So, we have a very similar setup. Erase all the news. The Fed, the economic environment, and just focus on price action. We have a very similar setup. Stocks are frothy. They're being dragged up by the Magnificent Seven. So, it's not a healthy rally. Gold's outperforming everything else. The dollar's the most hated. And you know, the markets really do move for for the same reasons. No matter if it's a tech bubble, if it's a financial crisis like 2007 or whatever this new one's going to be here now, they sell off because people are scared and something bad is happening or they rally because they're bullish and confident. So, we have a very similar setup where we've we've seen before the, you know, we're seeing gold, silver, and miners come to life and outperform. This is what happens just before a major major trend reversal. In fact, if we look um at just the cycles in the market, usually precious metals do exceptionally well right near the top. We saw this in 2007 as well. And so this is an early warning sign. Um capital industrial capital goods have been doing very well also. And it's interesting because when you when you come down and look at this business economic cycle, which I don't think I've shared with you on on on here before, but more or less we're in this um this this yellow cycle here, Kai, is the economic cycle, the business cycle. The blue one in the background is the stock market cycle. And again, the stock market cycle is saying precious metals are telling us something bad is happening. The stock market is likely to start to top out soon. This yellow cycle is the economic cycle. And if you look where we are right here, innovation and and adaption, we've got in the same time frame, this is this is AI. This is adaptation. Everybody's bringing in AI into all the businesses. Is spurring on tons of growth. It's dragging the stock indices up by the magnificent seven. And so we're just in this final phase. The economy is still growing and still has some strength, but the stock market already knows the end is coming. The music's about to stop. And really it's having a game plan, being able to identify when has that music stopped, when do you need to change, pull chips off the table or change your strategy or hedge your positions. Um, so there's there's all this kind of interesting stuff coming into play like the dollar and like 2007 and and these cycles. Um, I find it all really interesting. These are big cycles. These have to do with the whole kind of global economy. So they don't happen overnight. They take months, quarters, in some cases years to actually top or bottom. But we're in the process. I believe we're, you know, we're on the homeward stretch to potentially, if we fast forward from 2007 and we just look at the price action, this is where gold shot up another 35 30%, the stock market fell 55% and as the stock market tumbled, the US dollar took off. And so I I believe we could see something similar potentially down the road. Stock market sells off. Gold has its final blowoff move to 4,100, 45, 500 an ounce. Uh silver, I think, is going to hit 50 an ounce. Um the dollar is going to put in a bottom and start to rally as the stock market crashes. There's a lot of stuff uh coming to play. I probably just lost everybody, but um there's a there's a lot of really interesting come things coming to play which kind of just uh you need to be aware of. >> No, absolutely. lot lots going on of course and even Kiwi is a debate uh stackflation recession all all of those topics being discussed already um but you you're bringing up the gold chart here uh Chris let's take a look you just mentioned 4100 or 4500 um I'm assuming that's a 30% on top of what we're seeing already so I'm curious um I know like we're in unprecedented territory here chart-wise probably but what are the charts telling you here Chris? Yeah. Well, the the really there's a pretty clear chart pattern just using Fibonacci extension based on this low that we saw back in in in November 2024. We had the big rally up. We have the high and then we have this pullback that we saw earlier this year in May. Using Fibonacci extension, we can get a gauge of where that momentum should carry uh the price of gold, which brings us to about 40, you know, 4,100 40 4,800 or $80 somewhere in that range. And so gold has broken out of this big bull flag. It's starting to pick up speed, high momentum. So there's a lot of upside potential for uh for gold here. And you know, just looking at the short-term chart, there's some really nice momentum here. If we were to look at this from a swing trader perspective, this rally up, this quick little hiccup back down to the fiveday moving average shows that potentially in three or four or five days in the next week, we could see gold run another about almost 5%. Just based on this high momentum move, which would which would be very nice and it would actually balance out the size of this big bull flag that uh has been forming all year. So, we got this giant bull flag, which is you have a rally up, it creates a flag pole, and then you have the flag flagging sideways in the wind, which is a pause before it continues higher. So, overall, when you know, this breakout that we're having, the first kind of real resistance area, I think, could be right up here around that 3850 uh area. And that could happen literally, you know, as you and I are speaking, like this week type of thing or next week. Yeah, we're getting enough macro data to sort of fuel the fire here or fuel the rocket, right? To to use that kind of lingo, but uh there's enough out there that that makes that feasible. Like I'm fully on board even from a macro perspective there, Chris. Um let's take a quick look at silver as well because it is lagging behind. I'm worrying and or not worrying but wondering if maybe recession fears or the industrial demand is holding it back and why isn't it moving as let's say violently as as gold is? Yeah, I mean it has a similar chart pattern on the daily chart. It's it's showing a pretty explosive move in the near term. Just looking at this most recent pattern, it's showing silver should run potentially in the next week or so to about 45 45 bucks an ounce. If we go and we look back at the monthly chart and look at the big picture of silver, silver has this this tendency, which is what you just touched on, Kai, which is it can kind of be dormant. It can kind of lag for a little bit. gold might take the lead and maybe miners sometimes take the lead and then suddenly silver will just like take off and play catch-up at the last hour. I think that's I think that's likely what's going to happen here. I think silver's all of a sudden is going to pop and take off. And I think we could actually see it hit $4950, maybe hit an all-time high in the next month or so before maybe we see a little bit of a pause and correction and the stock market has a a reset. So, uh, gold and silver and the miners are all looking very strong. Not only are the charts on multiple time frames pointing to higher pricing, but as you mentioned, kind of the fundamentals, the economics, you know, are also in favor. We have a really good tailwind, which is why I like gold here and why we've taken an added position in it. And really, if we take a look at this added layer of gold seasonality, Kai, you can see August, September through almost the middle of October, gold has a natural tailwind. It naturally wants to go higher on average every year. So, a lot of things are lining up telling us that gold should just whiz its way higher. It should be pretty effortless. And that's, you know, that's the joys of riding a trend. A trend should feel somewhat effortless. If you're trading and everything's going against you, it means you're fighting probably an underlying trend in the opposite direction. Right now, all the trends, including fundamental data, is favor favoring gold. >> Let's take a look at the miners, Chris, because that's where the leverage is. That's where the fun is. Um, you know, gold price exploding, uh, which leads to higher margins in the miners. GDX, SIJ, you got you got up here as well. Yeah, absolutely. Rallying in in recent days. Um what do the charts tell us here? >> Yeah, I mean on a short-term basis when we look at the 30-inut chart, we can see, you know, silver miners got into an oversold condition and they have just screamed higher. We're we're long silj here in with our our short-term sector strategy. When you look at the monthly chart, silver miners are are up here trading near close to all-time highs for this ETF going back as far as it did. Um, you know, when we look at the GDX, which are the large cap gold stocks, it's very similar. It's trading right up near all-time highs or actually at all-time highs pretty much. Um, telling us that I think I think we've seen a good chunk, a majority of the move for miners temporarily. I do think they're going to go a little bit higher. Uh, but what's interesting is the juniors haven't really like the gold juniors haven't really taken off. They've had a very nice run, but they're nowhere near the all-time highs. And I do feel like the juniors uh are eventually going to have a really good window. I do think they are going to have a bit of a pause and pull back along with everything else over the next I don't know 6 8 12 months if the stock market does stall out. I think we're going to see everything have a bit of a pause and for gold, silver, and miners it's going to create you know a bull flag pattern more or less. Wherever this tops out, we'll eventually see miners put in a bull flag, a launch pad before it takes that next big run and and shoot shoots higher. And I think GDXJ and like the junior micro cap gold stocks when we get to that market environment are going to be a really awesome play. But right now, money has been going into silver miners into the large uh gold miners and not quite as much into the the juniors. But um they're all pointing to higher pricing and uh there's I think there's quite a bit of upside long term down the road and I think near-term they're going to have an explosive move. Gold silver miners should pop. Um but I do think after that pop in the next month, they're going to probably start to go sideways and and build a big bull flag pattern for down the road for it to have another leg higher. >> Yeah. One one thing many investors are not aware of is that Newman is the second best performing stock in the S&P 500 year to date which is absolutely brilliant. A lot of people are just not aware over 110% this year already year to date. I think it's only being bested by hard drive company. I think Seagate is uh uh in the top spot right now. Palanteers dropped. They used to be in the lead. Um since you since you bring up the chart there in Newmont, it's the the only S&P 500 traded gold miner. uh how much love is uh is left there in the chart? >> Yeah. Well, the one thing that that that makes me nervous when it comes to the the miners, like when you look at those large caps, every time it's got up to this nosebleleed level, it's going for a swan dive. When you look at GDX, it's a lot of large caps in there. It's at the same. It's at a level where it got sold into. Uh silver miners are the same. Uh so, I have a little bit of hesitancy. I like gold because it's a fresh breakout. It's got a clean move. It just had a huge multi-month pause. So it could keep moving higher and miners might actually start to struggle because they've just had a hell of a good move. And we saw this in 2007. We saw out of gold, silver, and miners, the number one performer in this market environment was gold. It rallied and outperformed silver and gold miners because the stock market might start to struggle. And if the stock market struggles, we see the anything in it, gold stocks are a stock. They're stuck in the stock market. And if the stock market tide is going down, it's going to naturally pull miners or mute their upward move. So I'm nervous. Pneumont, everyone knows it. I if somebody doesn't trade gold or know much about gold and all that stuff, they probably still have pneumont or they know about it or they own it because it's just that crowded play. So I think the play right now is u miners have been a great move. Milk, we'll milk it for as long as we can and see how far they go. But no, I think the end a pause is coming soon and there'll be a point to to to realize it's going to need a breather before they go higher, which isn't a bad thing. Uh, but gold to me is the fresh the fresh play with the most opportunity. >> Fantastic, Chris. Really, really appreciate your insights. It's always great to have you on. It's always good to get some different perspectives, chart perspectives, because we often talk emotions here and just assumptions. Uh, the charts always tell a different story and I really appreciate you coming on. bit of a rhetorical question nowadays because people should by now know where to find you. But where can we send everybody? >> Yeah, if people uh want to learn about what I do, I share my trades and my analysis with my own portfolio at thetechnical.com and um also on my YouTube channel, the technical traders, I share daily market analysis and you can follow along with more granular charts of what's happening yesterday, today and what to expect and how to play uh charts and things like that. Um, yeah. >> Fantastic. Awesome. Really appreciate your time, Chris. Always good to see you. Always great to catch up. And everybody else, thank you so much for tuning in here to sore financially. Bit of a chart check. You heard it. Gold has lots of room to grow. Maybe even this week. We we'll see where it goes, but uh the economic data is pointing only in one direction that is upward. But be careful there. Maybe hedge your bets a little bit. Be cautious of course. And uh have fun. It's going to be great. We're in a bull market. As Rick Rule said, the miners are still catching up and especially the juniors still have a lot to run in my opinion when I look at the when I look at the charts, but also just in in terms of generalist acceptance. So, thank you so much for tuning in and we'll be back with lots more here from Sore Financial. [Music]
This Breakout Could Send Gold to $4,500: Technical Outlook I Chris Vermeulen
Summary
Transcript
Gold is at another all-time high 3650 as we speak up 1.5% on Monday morning as we record this. Silver is tracking behind about up about a percent 4140. The precious metals are rallying. S&P 500 is in an all-time high and we need to take a closer look at the charts. I've invited Chris Vermulan back of the technical traders to run us through his chart analysis. What what is happening in the markets? How much room is left? And Chris and I talked briefly off camera. But we're also going to take a look at some of the mining stocks, meaning the the silver miners index, GDX, GDXJ, just to see what the performance there is and if there's anything left to be gained, of course. Uh before I switch over to my guest, hit that like and subscribe button. It helps us out tremendously reach a wider audience and we much much appreciate it. Now, Chris, it is great to welcome you back on the show. Thanks so much for joining us. >> Oh, thanks for having me, Kai. Always a pleasure. >> Yeah, how how was your summer? Let's let's start maybe with a bit of small talk, Chris, before we dive into the technicals. But, um, how was your summer? How how busy was it looking at some of the charts? It was couldn't have been too busy. >> This summer was great all around. The equities markets moved up and to the right. Gold traded sideways, building a launchpad, which it has now broken out of and launched from. Had a great time with the kids and the family. It was good weather. I mean, it really was pretty much a golden summer across the board. So, uh, when we look at most assets, everything, even the dollar index is actually looking like it's trying to put in a bottom and, uh, we'll probably tie into that, but I I pretty much everything right now is pointing to higher pricing, going north on the charts. And, uh, it's it's kind of exciting. I a lot of people are waiting for the Fed to drop the drop the hammer to see what's going to happen and then see how the ALOS and the big funds react to it. But, uh, everything is looking pretty good at this point. Yeah, like you you just touched on I was going to ask you as well, Chris, but maybe the macro picture just real quick. What is influencing markets right now from your perspective the most? Of course, we'll look at the technicals here in a second, but you you just touched on the Fed. What what should we be paying attention to from that macro side? >> Yeah, I mean, I'm not good with macro because it never makes much sense to me. You never know how the same piece of data like now won't have the same reaction later down the road in a different mindset of investor, a different market environment. So, it's really difficult. But right now, I mean, I I read something earlier, people saying the Fed looks like they're going to cut half a basis point. Somebody's saying uh, you know, half a percentage point because jobless claims or unemployment's going up. And you look at the numbers. I mean, we don't have a jobless problem. Uh, it's so minor. I don't really see a whole lot happening to be honest. If anything, they might drop, you know, a quarter basis point, but I still don't see or feel the pain for the Fed to have to step up and start shooting off these bullets to try and save the markets. And the way I see it is usually the markets falls apart and then the Fed starts, you know, dropping um quarter basis points to try and save it through there. And I just don't see any pain yet for them to do that. So, I don't I don't really see anything changing. I think people are going to be maybe be upset if there is no change because so many people are are asking for a rate cut. But um uh yeah, it's going to be interesting. People are waiting for it and I there'll probably be some disappointment. There always will be whatever it comes out as. But uh I wouldn't trade based on what you think is going to happen. I would just stick with the charts because they really are showing the direction and and which direction you should be focused on. >> Yeah. Well, the market seems to be telling us that bad news is good news based on the reaction as you were saying. $6,500 or 6,500 points in the S&P 500 already and move moving higher. A lot of euphoria in the charts. Um Chris, what is the market pricing in? Maybe we'll start with the S&P 500 and I'll I'll bring it up as well. But what what is the market pricing in here? >> Yeah, I mean right now the market is in limbo. I think the market is trying to figure out what the Fed is going to do. I think a lot of most people are too tied up in the news. They're too tied up on economic data and the Fed. And so that's why the market I think is choppy here. It's it's it's inconsistent where we have some there's a natural upward bias but then we see big institutions we see some heavy selling days where looks like people are unloading portfolios large chunks. Um it's really people in limbo. The market is still pointing to higher pricing. Like when we look at the daily chart on the right hand side here we're we're kind of having this rising kind of wedge and it's kind of like a running correction. So instead of a bull flag that runs up and then flags in a in a controlled way and then has that second half of that move, a running correction or a wedge like this is is a very volatile type of pattern. Meaning when it comes to an end, it's going to be very sharp. And the big question right now is is it going to have a sharp crack and fall and decline or is it going to have a big pop and and rally? And so that's kind of the phase we're in. I need to expect there's going to be some some big movements. Now, the the market is pointing still to higher pricing. The trends are up on pretty much across the board. Even when we look at the short-term basis, this 30inut chart on the lefth hand side, these lime green areas is when the S&P 500 has dropped into oversold territories. They've also dropped to this pink moving average, which is the same as this 20-day moving average on the daily chart. So, these two lows and whenever the market's getting overbought based on these indicators, these tools, we see the market step back in and get bought right back up. So these waves of panic, these waves of fear quickly get bought up by some some big institutions. Um so right now we're just kind of in limbo, but I would expect the market to to break and rally to the upside and break out to the upside uh going forward. But you're right, you know, the market when we look at the price of gold, gold itself is warning us that the world is is more or less preparing. it's telling us something bad is happening and we're just waiting for that piece of news or that event that that kind of shoe to drop uh to cause the be the name for the next financial reset which I think is is coming sooner than later but you definitely don't want to fight this trend and gold is telling us something bad is brewing but you can't bet and try and pick a top because this market climbs a wall of worry and um it can keep doing that for a lot longer than most people can stay solvent. Yeah. No, absolutely. Never fight the Fed or you should not fight the Fed is probably one of the themes that we need to be paying attention to here. Um, one one thing I've noticed and I'm not sure if the charts sort of correlate as well, but the second jumbo cuts were on the table. Fed Governor Chris Waller brought those up, the market, gold in particular, the S&P 500 seemed to take another leap forward or jump forward. And look looking at uh your your chart here. It seems like there's a green candle sort of mid August which is the time around it happened I think. Um is there a longer green? Yeah, exactly. Right there is a longer green candle uh upwards. I'm curious if there's if you see that correlation as well where the macro and the the charts sort of collide. >> Yeah. Well, yeah, definitely. I think people were getting real nervous leading into the news and then we we hear it and we get that pop and the relief. When people are nervous, they usually sell stuff or when they're uncertain and then once they're the news hits the table and they're like, "Oh, okay. Now I know the answer." You know, people are don't feel fearful anymore and they get back in. So, there's no doubt economic news and things like that sway the markets, but it's usually short-term dips and blips. It's usually not a trend reversal type of move. Um, and you know, when you look at this, the market is, you know, it's looking primed and ready to to to push higher. And, uh, I'm pretty excited. I mean, we're long the markets here and uh everything is still pointing to higher prices. >> Yeah. August 22nd was the Juron Pal speech in Jackson Hole as well. I think that's where the green candle actually is. Yeah, exactly. Right. Then that's when you open the door wide to Fed cuts. Um in terms of volume, just looking at the um the volume chart down below as well. Doesn't seem like there's a massive breakout in volume. Um there are little blips um on on the radar screen. Anything that we should be looking at in terms of volume there, um Chris? Um, I mean the the we've got three high bars of green of green bars here, meaning there's some pretty good buying going on. I think the volume doesn't say a whole lot, although it is bullish. The this the higher volume green bars say those are days of accumulation. So, people are building positions and um yeah, I get right now it's just wait and see. Just have to let the market mature. There's no need to pick a direction. I mean, you should be long if anything here and and just let it unfold, which it should resolve to the upside. talking about like volatility and maybe uh limbo, the VIX, it's pretty much dead. The VIX patient if you were to use it as a heartbeat monitor um trading or the VIX at 15 is um unbelievably flat uh right now. So it also points to what you've been saying that we are in limbo. We're waiting for something to happen. >> Yeah. And it's funny if you take if you look at the VIX, I mean it's usually has this you have a spike of fear and then once that euphoric that panic, you know, dissipates, it just bleeds out. But look, if you just look at this chart pattern and then I flip over to say uh the S&P 500. So this is exact same time frame. And then I just flip the scale of the S&P 500. We just invert it. It's pretty much the same. I mean, uh, you know, right now there's there's not a lot of fear in the market, believe it or not. VIX is low, people aren't seeing volatility. And uh the tr when the VIX is low, the market can just keep going higher and higher and higher. And that's really just kind of what we're letting letting unfold. A lot of people are trying to pick a top. A lot of people are betting on falling pricing, and this type of price action has got them thinking it's getting close, which it could be, but uh you definitely don't want to get in front of this uh because there really isn't a whole lot of fear yet. And um this market is is trending up. Yeah, I I sometimes look at the CNN fear and greed index and while you were chatting or talking here, I was looking at it's it's perfectly in the middle. It's 52. It's neutral. It exactly the charts describe exactly what you're saying and the the sentiment indicators. I think the fear and greed index is like seven indicators combined, I believe. And >> yeah, I I like to look at also the uh the put call ratio. It's a really weird funky looking chart if people don't look at it, but uh more or less it's it's telling us there isn't there isn't a ton of fear. We're kind of in neutral territory. Nothing too significant. But there's these extremes on this chart that tell us when the market is when when there's a big green spike up here. You know, people are buying put options. They're betting on falling pricing. And that's usually that you're near a market low, an oversold market condition, and we see it rally. And right now, I mean, the put call ratio is not giving any insight either. So, the market is low volatility. It is trending up. And um and it's the same with the NASDAQ. When you look at the the NASDAQ 100, it's it's been trading more sideways than upwards. Um with the big meg mega7s kind of some of them taking a bit of a backseat and holding it down, but overall it's still a bullish pattern and pointing to higher pricing. >> Just looking for impulse here. Uh the Dixie, the dollar index, I'm curious what you're seeing from there because it seems to be stabilizing as well from what I've been seeing. I'm curious what your thoughts are on the Dixie. Yeah, the dollar index is trying to figure out if it if it's putting in a bottom here. It's it it looks like a bottoming type of pattern, but it has not bottomed yet. Uh more or less, it's kind of I think a lot of people are thinking, you know, there's going to be a rate cut, which could m make the dollar lose some value. So, that's kind of what we're starting to see is that I think that is the the belief is there's going to be a rate cut. Usually, the dollar is going to want to pull back. And if there's a rate cut, we're also probably going to see like bonds move higher. And if we take a look at bonds like TLT, you can see the last four days bonds are just shooting higher. Everyone seems to be moving in believing there's going to be a rate cut. And um there could be. The question is, is it is it zero? Is it a quarter or is it half? Uh we're just going to find out, but people are front running the news and trying to get positioned in for it. Of course, the news is going to hit. we'll probably see a pull back, but um the dollar, you know, people are betting on a rate cut, higher bond pricing, and they're expecting the dollar to fall, which will be kind of will be interesting to see because, you know, if we go back and we look at this chart, there's a comparison chart, the left one here. I'm going to go back to 2007 to the stock market high. We just go back here and I'll just zoom way in. So, if we go back, the the candlestick chart here, Kai, is the uh S&P 500 weekly chart. The S&P 500 was hitting new all-time highs just before it put in a major top and started to crash. Now, the yellow line is gold. And you can see we're in a very similar type of situation. We had a big pullback this year. We had a rally. We're pushing to new highs with stocks. 2007, we had a sharp pullback. And then we've had a rally and we're pushing to new highs. Well, gold for both of these time frames are like the top performers long term. They are picking up the slack. Gold is is performing very well. And what's really interesting, if we go back to these this time window on 2007 on the left chart there, we look at the the Dixie, the dollar, it was it had sold off. It was one of the most hated currencies. Everybody says it's going to be worthless, blah blah blah blah blah, all of that stuff. And then we come over here to where we are now on this this other chart. I get this uh to load here and we take a look at the dollar index. Dollar index is back down at the bottom. It's one of the most hated currencies. Everybody says it's going to zero. So, we have a very similar setup. Erase all the news. The Fed, the economic environment, and just focus on price action. We have a very similar setup. Stocks are frothy. They're being dragged up by the Magnificent Seven. So, it's not a healthy rally. Gold's outperforming everything else. The dollar's the most hated. And you know, the markets really do move for for the same reasons. No matter if it's a tech bubble, if it's a financial crisis like 2007 or whatever this new one's going to be here now, they sell off because people are scared and something bad is happening or they rally because they're bullish and confident. So, we have a very similar setup where we've we've seen before the, you know, we're seeing gold, silver, and miners come to life and outperform. This is what happens just before a major major trend reversal. In fact, if we look um at just the cycles in the market, usually precious metals do exceptionally well right near the top. We saw this in 2007 as well. And so this is an early warning sign. Um capital industrial capital goods have been doing very well also. And it's interesting because when you when you come down and look at this business economic cycle, which I don't think I've shared with you on on on here before, but more or less we're in this um this this yellow cycle here, Kai, is the economic cycle, the business cycle. The blue one in the background is the stock market cycle. And again, the stock market cycle is saying precious metals are telling us something bad is happening. The stock market is likely to start to top out soon. This yellow cycle is the economic cycle. And if you look where we are right here, innovation and and adaption, we've got in the same time frame, this is this is AI. This is adaptation. Everybody's bringing in AI into all the businesses. Is spurring on tons of growth. It's dragging the stock indices up by the magnificent seven. And so we're just in this final phase. The economy is still growing and still has some strength, but the stock market already knows the end is coming. The music's about to stop. And really it's having a game plan, being able to identify when has that music stopped, when do you need to change, pull chips off the table or change your strategy or hedge your positions. Um, so there's there's all this kind of interesting stuff coming into play like the dollar and like 2007 and and these cycles. Um, I find it all really interesting. These are big cycles. These have to do with the whole kind of global economy. So they don't happen overnight. They take months, quarters, in some cases years to actually top or bottom. But we're in the process. I believe we're, you know, we're on the homeward stretch to potentially, if we fast forward from 2007 and we just look at the price action, this is where gold shot up another 35 30%, the stock market fell 55% and as the stock market tumbled, the US dollar took off. And so I I believe we could see something similar potentially down the road. Stock market sells off. Gold has its final blowoff move to 4,100, 45, 500 an ounce. Uh silver, I think, is going to hit 50 an ounce. Um the dollar is going to put in a bottom and start to rally as the stock market crashes. There's a lot of stuff uh coming to play. I probably just lost everybody, but um there's a there's a lot of really interesting come things coming to play which kind of just uh you need to be aware of. >> No, absolutely. lot lots going on of course and even Kiwi is a debate uh stackflation recession all all of those topics being discussed already um but you you're bringing up the gold chart here uh Chris let's take a look you just mentioned 4100 or 4500 um I'm assuming that's a 30% on top of what we're seeing already so I'm curious um I know like we're in unprecedented territory here chart-wise probably but what are the charts telling you here Chris? Yeah. Well, the the really there's a pretty clear chart pattern just using Fibonacci extension based on this low that we saw back in in in November 2024. We had the big rally up. We have the high and then we have this pullback that we saw earlier this year in May. Using Fibonacci extension, we can get a gauge of where that momentum should carry uh the price of gold, which brings us to about 40, you know, 4,100 40 4,800 or $80 somewhere in that range. And so gold has broken out of this big bull flag. It's starting to pick up speed, high momentum. So there's a lot of upside potential for uh for gold here. And you know, just looking at the short-term chart, there's some really nice momentum here. If we were to look at this from a swing trader perspective, this rally up, this quick little hiccup back down to the fiveday moving average shows that potentially in three or four or five days in the next week, we could see gold run another about almost 5%. Just based on this high momentum move, which would which would be very nice and it would actually balance out the size of this big bull flag that uh has been forming all year. So, we got this giant bull flag, which is you have a rally up, it creates a flag pole, and then you have the flag flagging sideways in the wind, which is a pause before it continues higher. So, overall, when you know, this breakout that we're having, the first kind of real resistance area, I think, could be right up here around that 3850 uh area. And that could happen literally, you know, as you and I are speaking, like this week type of thing or next week. Yeah, we're getting enough macro data to sort of fuel the fire here or fuel the rocket, right? To to use that kind of lingo, but uh there's enough out there that that makes that feasible. Like I'm fully on board even from a macro perspective there, Chris. Um let's take a quick look at silver as well because it is lagging behind. I'm worrying and or not worrying but wondering if maybe recession fears or the industrial demand is holding it back and why isn't it moving as let's say violently as as gold is? Yeah, I mean it has a similar chart pattern on the daily chart. It's it's showing a pretty explosive move in the near term. Just looking at this most recent pattern, it's showing silver should run potentially in the next week or so to about 45 45 bucks an ounce. If we go and we look back at the monthly chart and look at the big picture of silver, silver has this this tendency, which is what you just touched on, Kai, which is it can kind of be dormant. It can kind of lag for a little bit. gold might take the lead and maybe miners sometimes take the lead and then suddenly silver will just like take off and play catch-up at the last hour. I think that's I think that's likely what's going to happen here. I think silver's all of a sudden is going to pop and take off. And I think we could actually see it hit $4950, maybe hit an all-time high in the next month or so before maybe we see a little bit of a pause and correction and the stock market has a a reset. So, uh, gold and silver and the miners are all looking very strong. Not only are the charts on multiple time frames pointing to higher pricing, but as you mentioned, kind of the fundamentals, the economics, you know, are also in favor. We have a really good tailwind, which is why I like gold here and why we've taken an added position in it. And really, if we take a look at this added layer of gold seasonality, Kai, you can see August, September through almost the middle of October, gold has a natural tailwind. It naturally wants to go higher on average every year. So, a lot of things are lining up telling us that gold should just whiz its way higher. It should be pretty effortless. And that's, you know, that's the joys of riding a trend. A trend should feel somewhat effortless. If you're trading and everything's going against you, it means you're fighting probably an underlying trend in the opposite direction. Right now, all the trends, including fundamental data, is favor favoring gold. >> Let's take a look at the miners, Chris, because that's where the leverage is. That's where the fun is. Um, you know, gold price exploding, uh, which leads to higher margins in the miners. GDX, SIJ, you got you got up here as well. Yeah, absolutely. Rallying in in recent days. Um what do the charts tell us here? >> Yeah, I mean on a short-term basis when we look at the 30-inut chart, we can see, you know, silver miners got into an oversold condition and they have just screamed higher. We're we're long silj here in with our our short-term sector strategy. When you look at the monthly chart, silver miners are are up here trading near close to all-time highs for this ETF going back as far as it did. Um, you know, when we look at the GDX, which are the large cap gold stocks, it's very similar. It's trading right up near all-time highs or actually at all-time highs pretty much. Um, telling us that I think I think we've seen a good chunk, a majority of the move for miners temporarily. I do think they're going to go a little bit higher. Uh, but what's interesting is the juniors haven't really like the gold juniors haven't really taken off. They've had a very nice run, but they're nowhere near the all-time highs. And I do feel like the juniors uh are eventually going to have a really good window. I do think they are going to have a bit of a pause and pull back along with everything else over the next I don't know 6 8 12 months if the stock market does stall out. I think we're going to see everything have a bit of a pause and for gold, silver, and miners it's going to create you know a bull flag pattern more or less. Wherever this tops out, we'll eventually see miners put in a bull flag, a launch pad before it takes that next big run and and shoot shoots higher. And I think GDXJ and like the junior micro cap gold stocks when we get to that market environment are going to be a really awesome play. But right now, money has been going into silver miners into the large uh gold miners and not quite as much into the the juniors. But um they're all pointing to higher pricing and uh there's I think there's quite a bit of upside long term down the road and I think near-term they're going to have an explosive move. Gold silver miners should pop. Um but I do think after that pop in the next month, they're going to probably start to go sideways and and build a big bull flag pattern for down the road for it to have another leg higher. >> Yeah. One one thing many investors are not aware of is that Newman is the second best performing stock in the S&P 500 year to date which is absolutely brilliant. A lot of people are just not aware over 110% this year already year to date. I think it's only being bested by hard drive company. I think Seagate is uh uh in the top spot right now. Palanteers dropped. They used to be in the lead. Um since you since you bring up the chart there in Newmont, it's the the only S&P 500 traded gold miner. uh how much love is uh is left there in the chart? >> Yeah. Well, the one thing that that that makes me nervous when it comes to the the miners, like when you look at those large caps, every time it's got up to this nosebleleed level, it's going for a swan dive. When you look at GDX, it's a lot of large caps in there. It's at the same. It's at a level where it got sold into. Uh silver miners are the same. Uh so, I have a little bit of hesitancy. I like gold because it's a fresh breakout. It's got a clean move. It just had a huge multi-month pause. So it could keep moving higher and miners might actually start to struggle because they've just had a hell of a good move. And we saw this in 2007. We saw out of gold, silver, and miners, the number one performer in this market environment was gold. It rallied and outperformed silver and gold miners because the stock market might start to struggle. And if the stock market struggles, we see the anything in it, gold stocks are a stock. They're stuck in the stock market. And if the stock market tide is going down, it's going to naturally pull miners or mute their upward move. So I'm nervous. Pneumont, everyone knows it. I if somebody doesn't trade gold or know much about gold and all that stuff, they probably still have pneumont or they know about it or they own it because it's just that crowded play. So I think the play right now is u miners have been a great move. Milk, we'll milk it for as long as we can and see how far they go. But no, I think the end a pause is coming soon and there'll be a point to to to realize it's going to need a breather before they go higher, which isn't a bad thing. Uh, but gold to me is the fresh the fresh play with the most opportunity. >> Fantastic, Chris. Really, really appreciate your insights. It's always great to have you on. It's always good to get some different perspectives, chart perspectives, because we often talk emotions here and just assumptions. Uh, the charts always tell a different story and I really appreciate you coming on. bit of a rhetorical question nowadays because people should by now know where to find you. But where can we send everybody? >> Yeah, if people uh want to learn about what I do, I share my trades and my analysis with my own portfolio at thetechnical.com and um also on my YouTube channel, the technical traders, I share daily market analysis and you can follow along with more granular charts of what's happening yesterday, today and what to expect and how to play uh charts and things like that. Um, yeah. >> Fantastic. Awesome. Really appreciate your time, Chris. Always good to see you. Always great to catch up. And everybody else, thank you so much for tuning in here to sore financially. Bit of a chart check. You heard it. Gold has lots of room to grow. Maybe even this week. We we'll see where it goes, but uh the economic data is pointing only in one direction that is upward. But be careful there. Maybe hedge your bets a little bit. Be cautious of course. And uh have fun. It's going to be great. We're in a bull market. As Rick Rule said, the miners are still catching up and especially the juniors still have a lot to run in my opinion when I look at the when I look at the charts, but also just in in terms of generalist acceptance. So, thank you so much for tuning in and we'll be back with lots more here from Sore Financial. [Music]