LIVE: Jobs Report MISS, GOLD Price Reaction & FED Cuts | Kai Hoffmann
Summary
Jobs Report Miss: The US non-farm payrolls report significantly missed expectations, with only 22,000 jobs added versus the anticipated 75,000, impacting market sentiment and increasing speculation about potential Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Gold Price Reaction: Gold prices have surged over $220 since Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech, with a recent 0.5% increase, reflecting market anticipation of rate cuts and economic uncertainty.
Federal Reserve Rate Cuts: Market expectations are building for multiple rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with discussions of a potential "jumbo cut" of 50 basis points, influencing both gold prices and broader market dynamics.
Bond Market Movements: The US 10-year Treasury yield has decreased, reflecting investor positioning for anticipated rate cuts, while the long end of the market suggests expectations of further cuts.
Mining Sector Developments: Significant activity in the mining sector includes mergers such as Elemental Altas and EMX forming a new royalty company, and New Fun Gold acquiring Maritime Resources, indicating consolidation and investment interest in the sector.
Gold and Silver Market Trends: Both gold and silver are experiencing strong price movements, with silver outpacing gold in gains, driven by economic concerns and investor demand for safe-haven assets.
Investment Inflows: There is a notable increase in gold ETF inflows, particularly in North America and Europe, as investors seek refuge in gold amid economic uncertainty and potential monetary policy shifts.
Market Outlook: The stock market is rallying despite economic concerns, driven by expectations of cheaper money and potential quantitative easing, although the underlying economy shows signs of weakness.
Transcript
We have just seen a massive miss on the jobs report in the US. Non-farm payrolls came out about 30 minutes ago and they've missed the jobs report missed by 66% only 22,000 jobs added expected 75,000 and the market is responding. Of course, we were all watching very closely because we wanted to figure out what is the Fed going to do next here in about 10 days time and are we going to see a jumbo cut? I think we might. We might. And we'll get into details here in a few short seconds. But uh we also will discuss the massive move in gold over $220 since the Jackson Hole speech by Jerome Powell and gold responded this morning as well, jumping about.5%. Um it has rallied of course a lot already. We'll take a closer look at the gold price here as well. And some mining news. We got some other stuff to discuss as well. We'll need to look at the bond market and just wrap up this week. I hope you can hear me well. Um, I hope this is going fine. Uh, let us know. Let me know in the comments. Uh, I got those live here. I see them as well. This is the first time we're doing a weekly wrap-up live. I'm in Idaho right now. Um, going to see a couple mining projects uh here in Idaho. Just uh what is it? An hour and a half hour, two hours north of Boise. Um, figured the internet is fine. Why not do this live today? So, let let me know. It feels like I'm talking to the void. Somebody could drop a comment that I'm actually live. That'd be great. But uh yeah, let's dive right in. Let's take a quick look at the jobs report. I got this already lined up. Um let me add this to the screen here. Um non-farm payrolls. If you could you can spot a trend here obviously declining declining strength in the non-farm payrolls 22,000 only in August added well below the the expected of 75 and uh it is going well. So meaning it going well. It is going in the direction that the market wants to because now gold is moving. Um let's look here. I wanted to zoom in here real quick and just show the trend. Where is my tab? Like I'm doing this on the laptop. So I'm doing this while I'm traveling, but uh let let's take a look. So 22,000 expected. We're 75 or to 79 even. But uh we've seen job gains in healthcare. Great. Social assistance, perfect. We needed those. But uh of course losses in federal government to be expected. Uh really interesting or good to see that. What shocked me because while I'm in mining is uh we've seen spending cuts in mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction. I can tell you one thing I don't think it's happening in the oil or in the gold and silver space right now given the price environment we're in. So this has to be more I'm expecting on or assuming more on the quarrying side because that's more recession uh potential recession indicator of course because if nobody's building anything why would you need a corey? Why would you need any rock to to to to make your garden look nicer? Correct. So that's what I'm looking at. Um really interesting. Let's look at the market reaction though. Let's uh let's bring up the market. Uh let's look at and I've had this up here. Yeah. Let's look at the gold price. Let's look at the the the December future 36 um 35 absolute massive move here of course and uh this is point up 81% we are up it is moving uh nicely I've also got this set up here ever since August 22nd 3323 drove how open the door to Fed cuts and now 3579 um as we move I really like that one day blip um you can see it here um on this screen the one day blip ju just jumped up8% a lot of priced has been priced in already um of course that's why we've seen gold price slow down at the end of the week or just yesterday and the mining stocks also maybe declining people taking some of the money off the table in anticipation of that jobs report that we just been handed about 35 minutes ago um gold is moving I think uh we will see a rallying mining space yet again we're seeing a lot of news come out of the mining space just this morning. I'll I'll go into detail of some of them here shortly, but um the market is reacting. Let's let's look at the uh S&P 500 as well. Um oh, that's the wrong one. What uh did it do I have the right one here? There we go. No, it's not the right one. Is the spy. I'm looking for S&P 500. I don't look at it too much. There you go. Look at this market move. Like if you look at the S&P 500 move um personally, let's look at the three-month here. Why is this us? It's off the charts. It is off the charts. But let's look at the one month 5day. Oh, we need to move this here off. Maybe I should take a course in Trading View. What do you think? Anybody willing to sponsor that? Um but my point is the market has been rallying. Um let's share a different screen here. like I'm struggling with this part here. But let's take a look at this index move just one day or one week even. It's a massive jump. 6528 S&P 500 at new all-time highs pricing it or the market is now pricing at three rate cuts by the end of the year. One cut at least at every meeting. It is mind-blowing. I'm I'm not sure where that excitement comes from. Of course, the stock market is decoupled from the economy. There's it it doesn't make any sense to me as a very pragmatic person. You look at this and you think, well, the underlying economy can't be doing so well. Yet, the stock market is rallying in anticipation of cheaper rates, cheaper money, and potentially QE down the road. We'll have to see about that. Um, let let's take a look here. Um, just just looking at some of the comments here. All metals are up, obviously. Yes, gold and silver are rallying. Hey, hello to Florida. Appreciate it, Kerbone. Thanks so much for tuning in. Um, hope you're enjoying this. Hope this is uh informative. doing my best here to give you a good update this week of what I'm seeing. Of course, jobs report is front and center of what we're discussing. Um, jobs report. Uh, let's look at quick reaction bond market as well. Or you know what, before we do that, um, I want to share this tab. Um, I've been looking at this like I look at this daily almost these days. Uh, of course rate cut expectations of the Fed. Next meeting here is in 12 days. 98% one cut. But one thing has changed this morning and this is the second pillar that has popped up. The uh the 50 basis cut point cut now 2% chance. Chris Waller's been talking about it and I think gold has started to price in a jumbo cut. A jumbo cut meaning at least 50 basis points perhaps more um already and I think that's why gold has moved so strongly but it's now 2%. This didn't exist about an hour ago when I was looking at this. This is a new column uh which is really interesting. opening the door. Market is expecting more cuts um especially more cuts at the next meetings. We get three more meetings or we get three meetings this year. So September 17th, October 29th and December 10th. Uh what are your expectations? Put the put a comment down below as well. Really curious. Are we going to see a jumbo cut or just a trickling uh of of rate cuts here over the rest of the year? So but uh what does that mean? So, of course, reaction we will see. Let's take a look at the bond market here real quick. Um, of course, US bond markets. Let's take a look at the 10-year Treasury yield. Let's share this here. Um, it it has decreased. It has dropped. Uh, let's go one day. You can definitely see. Okay, we are seeing rate cuts. The question is how big uh long end of the market is starting to price in maybe more cuts even uh coming down 10 year down to 4 about 1% now in terms of yield. uh investors are getting positioned for cheaper money, locking in higher yields. Um we're also seeing that in the 30-year, which is really interesting, or the 20-y year, which is important for mortgage rates, by the way. Um curious to see if uh mortgage prices or mortgage rates get priced lower um once we see the cuts actually being implemented. That's uh something we're looking at here deeply because I have my reservations when it comes to that, especially when we're only looking at a 25 basis cut. Like why would mortgage rates drop significantly? Why would housing the housing market recover only because of a because of a smaller cut? Like I have my reservations. I've been mentioning them here before. And I've recorded a phenomenal interview with Sri Kumar uh just uh what was it yesterday morning which will be published here over the weekend. Go check that out when it comes out. He has some really clear points on why the Fed should actually be hiking rates right now because the inflation genie is still out there. It's uh still haunting us. Uh we're still looking at it. We're getting inflation data um next week, next Thursday, which will be another tell. So far, um everything points towards it because Powell said it himself. He's focused on the employment employment data and the employment report just today. I've sort of confirmed um what what Jerome Powell has been saying. Well, we're watching this and now he I think we can cement a at least 25 basis point cut in the prices. So, um, ju just going through the, um, through through the comments again, see if I'm missing anything. Um, appreciate everybody joining us here. ATM, Katy Lean, really appreciate it. Thanks so much for commenting. Um, let's, uh, dollar, dollar is another one I wanted to look at real quick because dollar of course is correlated with gold as well. Of course, um, massively down today, 73% massively. I'm exaggerating but uh in this grand scheme of things it is dropping um 97.6 six. Of course, you can also see here jobs report has been released. Dollars dropping, which is good for us in in the commodity space. Of course, uh everything I'm saying, please take that with a grain of salt. I come from the commodity side. I come from the gold and silver side. So, negative data is good for us sadly. Bit of an ethical dilemma, I have to admit, but that's something we're closing. Let's look at gold. Let's uh look at gold again here. This chart is a thing of beauty. 3574. Uh gold has reacted as I said to to the move. Um it has been a spectacular move. I just want to bring that one chart back up. Oh, I destroyed my trading view here. Uh that'll take too long to fix while I'm live. But uh gold has been running. Uh and now into this um uh let me just bring this back here. Let's uh has this hasn't switched over. Why hasn't this switched over? It should be showing. It's showing me the bond yields at 30-year, but it isn't switching to gold. Let me switch over to gold. Let me see this. Just want to show you the gold price here. Um, see, share this tab instead. Let's see this if this is Yeah, this has worked. I just want to see the gold price. And of course, we'll take a look at silver here as well. Uh, so gold's little brother. Of course, um, it is jumping. It is actually outpacing gold in gains. Gold up86% as we speak. Silver up 1.2% already. Um let's take a look here. Um let's see if we can break through 4150 or 4140. That that was the high this week. Um that's of course on the spot market. I I don't look at futures too much. Although I've shown you the futures price also in uh the December future price in gold, which is of course an indicator where things might be headed, but I'm more interested in the spot market. And 4118 on silver. Nice move here. uh as well following gold. Recession fears don't seem to be priced in here in silver. It's a more of a correlation to gold uh because we need to talk recession. This has to come up again. I was just watching a Bloomberg interview where the guest said like, well, you know, declining jobs market for the last what is it now almost four years where we started adding 400,000 jobs, 200,000 jobs. Now we're adding only 22,000 jobs a month. Um so there's obviously something a miss and we're running into recessionary fears yet again. uh silver as we all know uh has a bit of an industrial component to it 50% almost. So we have to watch that very closely whether we're whether the pumps are being bro whether the brakes are being pumped on on silver here in the coming months uh coming from the industrial side taking some of that uh excitement away from silver of course um that that said I don't see any excitement or anything slowing down silver right now we're we're on the run um I was listening to some commentary yesterday 42 needs to be uh is is the next level of resistance here in the silver price and we're we're moving towards it $42 once We're there. Apparently, there's no resistance. I'm not a chart technician. I'm not even sure what that really means. If there's no resistance to $50, um not even sure what the resistance could be. I think it's all about more buyers than sellers, quite honestly. Um so, we we'll have to see what what that means. But, um maybe personal anecdote, let me switch here to full screen real quick. Just personal anecdote. I had a chance to visit the monetary metals depository yesterday and one interesting comment I picked up was that they in the month of August they bought more gold and silver from uh consumers than they actually sold. So there's a lot of selling going on into the higher prices. The retail investor retail consumer um doesn't feel like holding on to to gold and silver and this price environment. Of course, it could also be an indicator of nearing financial trouble for the consumer because if you start selling your gold and silver and grandmother's jewelry, you might be plugging holes on other other places, meaning you're plugging holes in your credit card statements. Uh you might have to make ends meet on a daily basis. Um just just to cover daily expenses, food, grocery, even rent perhaps. So, uh it's an interesting indicator that I picked up and uh that's why I love traveling and doing these things. So, um pay attention to that. a lot of gold and silver being sold by retail and I've been hearing as well the mints are struggling because there's so much demand coming back or so much yeah re I would say retail demand what's what's the reverse uh if there's not demand there's demand for selling so people are willing to sell their gold and silver right now and pushing that one one thing I've queued up as well and I hope I can find it in the sea of tabs I have open here is um a gold a report from the from the world gold council Let me just share this screen yet again. And um one thing I'm looking at of course on a weekly basis and try to catch up with that uh here, let me roll up or let me scroll up here is of course ETF buying and what what does the World Gold Council see? They're tracking a lot of different things. Um and just in the last week as of August 29th, global gold ETF demand has finally picked up in North America and in Europe. We're seeing massive inflows and let me just get the data point here. So our model indicates that strong ETF inflows and rising volatility helped push towards or were were supported or sorry let me rephrase that you can read the sentence yourself here um but likely fed cut is pushing investors towards gold ETF inflows plus plus.9% here um really strong indicator investors are fleeing into gold not buying necessarily physical uh but ETF gold so if you really want to be cautious of course by physical, but that's a different story. We're not going to debate what you should be buying here. Um, really appreciate everybody's commentary here. Um, thanks so much for tuning in. Uh, Jerry Mandarin, ATM, I mentioned, perfect knowledge. Thanks so much. Uh, means a lot that you guys are watching. If you have any questions, I'll hope to get to some of them at the end here. Um, really running through this, uh, probably speaking way too fast. Only had one cup of coffee, hotel room coffee, um, which was a bit, uh, awful quite honestly. I like my coffee and uh that wasn't that great. Um so we we talked jobs report, we talked gold a little bit. Um of course we're we're looking at inflation data coming out at the end of this or end of next week on Thursday as well. Let me just bring up the calendar so you guys have an overview of what I'm looking at um as well. Uh where's the calendar? This is next week. Share this tab. So we're getting inflation data next Thursday, September 11th. Historic date as you all know. Uh maybe we're getting some historic inflation data. We'll we'll see. But I'm curious what your expectations are. Let me check in the in the comments. What are what are your expectations for in for the inflation data? Are we going to see another uptick in inflation? Really curious. Um tariffs still not priced in. We're still waiting for news on the tariff front between the US and China. Just read this morning the US is lowering tariffs on Japanese auto part imports. Uh so lots going on. Um that said, by the way, news out of the White House. Apparently, there's a big announcement supposed to happen at 400 p.m. Eastern um out of the White House. So, we'll we'll see what the announcement is going to be. 4 p.m. of course after market. Could be interesting. Could have huge implications. Uh the news about renaming the Department of Defense is already out. It's now the Department of War if you haven't heard that. Um really interesting tidbit. Now, let me take a quick look at my notes before I move on so I don't forget anything. Uh we talked about central bank buying uh in July or we haven't talked about central bank buying in July. was a bit slower, but we all saw that that gold was lacking an impulse. I don't think I have to bring that chart up. Go gold was lacking that impulse. I said it last week. Uh jobs report now finally got we we we got the impulses last week. The messaging from the Fed is very clear. Chris Waller said it jumbo cuts are even on the table. And I showed you Fed rate cut expectations just earlier. Um I think that really wraps up the macro. I think the the jobs report was overall just the biggest factor that we needed to look at. Let's let's take a quick look at some mining news stuff I'm following um that is relevant to my portfolio and maybe to yours as well. Just just some bigger news. Um what news this morning actually out or last night um Elemental Altas and EMX are merging uh forming a new royalty company Elemental Royalty Corp. close to a billion dollar in market cap. And the interesting part why I'm showing this to you is this here. Um, I'm not sure if you've been aware, but Tether Investments. So, that's a subsidiary of Tether, the crypto company, is investing another $100 million into Al Elemental Altas. They've already bought 47% of the company previously, and now they're adding to their shares. They're adding to their investment. Another US $101 million going into uh into a gold royalty company. It's a trend I'm watching very very closely because it's a lot of new money that could be flowing into our sector uh coming out of the crypto space because they want to back their tether stable coins with something tangible. Gold royalties is one thing because you can you can do the math. You can do some cash flow analysis and put that behind potential stable coins. The only thing missing here is of course the physical gold because Elemental Alta's EMX, they're not receiving any physical gold from their from their royalties, but just nice cash flow. Uh, another one um that has popped up this morning is another merger. Um, New Fun Gold is buying Maritime Resources. It's an interesting deal. It made sense like as you know, I was a director of Labrador Gold until May. Uh so I have a really good understanding of what is happening in New Finland and this deal makes a whole lot of sense to me for for NFG and Maritime uh to to merge together build a stronger capital base. Maritime was just ramping up uh production at uh from Hammerdown starting to go into production at Hammerdown. Uh they have a mill fully licensed on a port. So it really makes a lot of sense for NFG to jump in. They did have prior relations or prior relationship um before this deal was announced because an NFG gave Maritime about a two years ago a $2 million loan as well. So they're they've already seen that potential. Now Maritime was in a position to be taken out. Uh really good for New Funland because I think it'll really establish a nice new production hub there in uh in New Funland as well. Um so I think these are the most important mining. There's lots of financings I'm seeing as well. I've queued up uh I think I had had that queued up here, but I'll share you. I'm just uh one thing I do, of course, I really like following Junior Miner Mining Network. Quick shout out to these guys. Really doing a phenomenal job. Let me just zoom in here a little bit. Um because I want to show you the amount of financings that have been happening. All right, Allegian Gold closes 10 $10.5 million financing. Marramaka completes 80 million U Australian dollar book build. Amazing. That was announced only yesterday. Um, we have uh Magna Mining, $45 million financing. Tell me you're tell me we're in a bull market without telling me in a bull market. Just scroll down here and just take a look. Gross proceeds. ES Gold $5 million live financing. Uh, Bunker Hill, $45 million bought deal. That one had me roll my eyes because the stock was trading at 18 cents. Uh, just earlier this week, financing is now at 12 cents. I own this stock. My average price is 15 and I'm mad. I don't like it. Um, constantly being diluted. I'm just wait I was waiting for an exit quite honestly to get out of this deal. Now I got to wait a little longer again. Really frustrating but my you get my point. Lots of money flowing into this space. Um lots going on. Really excited to see that happen. I'm as I said I'm in the US right now. I'm doing a couple site visits before heading over to Beaver Creek in Colorado. Probably world's largest mining investment conference for the junior space happening there. uh starting Tuesday morning uh three days. I have over 30 meetings lined up with uh exploration companies, production or producers as well. Really excited to see that. And um getting a request, Leon, I'm seeing your post. Yeah, I can. Let's take a quick look at at Numont. Really like what they're doing as well. The chart of course in the S&P 500 getting lots of attention. Let me just cue that up here. Um really like showing this here. Let's see if anything's changed since I last looked at it. Um, let's see what the component returns are. Ah, new month dropped 23. Let me share this screen here real quick. Um, new months dropped two third again. Um, share screen. Year-to- date returns. There we go. Uh, Seagate has been picking up. I'm not following that, but uh, it's a hard drive company. Uh, I have a few hard drives from Seagate in my in my computer at home. U, Palanteer Pneumont now third. Uh, Numont obviously gold producer really like their cash flow. Six, if I'm not mistaken, $6.2 2 billion in cash right now. Question is now, what are they going to do with that cash? I've been hearing rumors about a number of deals to be presented to us or the market over the next 48 hours, 72 hours ahead of Beaver Creek. We've seen two already. I'm waiting for one more, a potential bigger one as well. My speculation, that's just speculation. I am gold might be in the play. I'm looking at Cotay being acquired. It is in that ramp up phase. Artemis is another target. They they are uh going through their ramp up right now producing at insane cash cost of $693 if I'm not mistaken. All in is about uh what was it? Uh $800 something dollars. Absolutely insane move. Um but let's take a quick look at the pneumon chart. Um NEM is the ticker. See, there we go. Let's take a look here to date. Um there we go. Ah, there we I'm starting to figure this out again. Trading View here. Maybe I just need to use it more. Uh so that's a year-to- date chart. Of course, massive move. Uh taking a bit of a breather like all the mining stocks this week uh started taking a bit of brever. People taking money off the table ahead of the jobs report. And uh can you see that? Yeah, you can. Okay, perfect. Um take taking money off the table ahead of the jobs report. It made sense uh to to do that. We didn't know. There's always surprises uh in store, but in the end it came out worse than than expected. Newmont now trading at what is it? 74.88. Um it is it is up sharply pre-market 7618. We'll see where it opens uh in about what is it? Six minutes. Market opens in six minutes. Um so we'll see a nice open here of the miners as well. Really excited to see that. So um ready to take a few more questions if you want. Uh doing this live as I said feel free to put them down in the comments. Uh, Leon or here. Um, uh, where are we? Where was the post? I was just looking. I was just gonna highlight that real quick. I really appreciate that. We just talked about Newmont here. Um, thanks so much for that comment here, Leon. Much appreciated. Um, if we have any more questions, uh, let me know. I'll be online for a couple more minutes. Um, ask me anything. Like, I haven't done a live or I haven't done a live all by myself in ever. I usually have a guest with me. Loiger will be joining us for the next fat life. commentary. We're doing that uh in about 10 days time right after the Fed press conference. And uh yeah, if there is no more questions, I really appreciate everybody tuning in. Let me put the put a bow around this. Uh gold is going to move. Let's take a look. See if we can get uh uh let's let's ceue up the GDX real quick. Where is my trading view? There we go. The GDX. See if we can get some pre-market data on that as well. Oh yeah, GDX opening up about a$150. um h yeah$ dollar50 higher uh this morning. So ma expect a massive run. We're going to see continue. I think the floor has been put in in gold with the rate to cut expectations. Really excited what we're seeing here. We are in a bull market. Have some fun out there. Trade accordingly. Be careful. It's not, you know, nobody's ever gone broke taken money off the table or gains off the table. So keep that in mind. And everybody else, thanks so much for watching. Have a great weekend. Uh, hope you enjoyed this live stream. Uh, let me know. I I'll post this obviously down below. Any comments are much much appreciated. Hope this was helpful and take care out there. Thanks so much for tuning in.
LIVE: Jobs Report MISS, GOLD Price Reaction & FED Cuts | Kai Hoffmann
Summary
Transcript
We have just seen a massive miss on the jobs report in the US. Non-farm payrolls came out about 30 minutes ago and they've missed the jobs report missed by 66% only 22,000 jobs added expected 75,000 and the market is responding. Of course, we were all watching very closely because we wanted to figure out what is the Fed going to do next here in about 10 days time and are we going to see a jumbo cut? I think we might. We might. And we'll get into details here in a few short seconds. But uh we also will discuss the massive move in gold over $220 since the Jackson Hole speech by Jerome Powell and gold responded this morning as well, jumping about.5%. Um it has rallied of course a lot already. We'll take a closer look at the gold price here as well. And some mining news. We got some other stuff to discuss as well. We'll need to look at the bond market and just wrap up this week. I hope you can hear me well. Um, I hope this is going fine. Uh, let us know. Let me know in the comments. Uh, I got those live here. I see them as well. This is the first time we're doing a weekly wrap-up live. I'm in Idaho right now. Um, going to see a couple mining projects uh here in Idaho. Just uh what is it? An hour and a half hour, two hours north of Boise. Um, figured the internet is fine. Why not do this live today? So, let let me know. It feels like I'm talking to the void. Somebody could drop a comment that I'm actually live. That'd be great. But uh yeah, let's dive right in. Let's take a quick look at the jobs report. I got this already lined up. Um let me add this to the screen here. Um non-farm payrolls. If you could you can spot a trend here obviously declining declining strength in the non-farm payrolls 22,000 only in August added well below the the expected of 75 and uh it is going well. So meaning it going well. It is going in the direction that the market wants to because now gold is moving. Um let's look here. I wanted to zoom in here real quick and just show the trend. Where is my tab? Like I'm doing this on the laptop. So I'm doing this while I'm traveling, but uh let let's take a look. So 22,000 expected. We're 75 or to 79 even. But uh we've seen job gains in healthcare. Great. Social assistance, perfect. We needed those. But uh of course losses in federal government to be expected. Uh really interesting or good to see that. What shocked me because while I'm in mining is uh we've seen spending cuts in mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction. I can tell you one thing I don't think it's happening in the oil or in the gold and silver space right now given the price environment we're in. So this has to be more I'm expecting on or assuming more on the quarrying side because that's more recession uh potential recession indicator of course because if nobody's building anything why would you need a corey? Why would you need any rock to to to to make your garden look nicer? Correct. So that's what I'm looking at. Um really interesting. Let's look at the market reaction though. Let's uh let's bring up the market. Uh let's look at and I've had this up here. Yeah. Let's look at the gold price. Let's look at the the the December future 36 um 35 absolute massive move here of course and uh this is point up 81% we are up it is moving uh nicely I've also got this set up here ever since August 22nd 3323 drove how open the door to Fed cuts and now 3579 um as we move I really like that one day blip um you can see it here um on this screen the one day blip ju just jumped up8% a lot of priced has been priced in already um of course that's why we've seen gold price slow down at the end of the week or just yesterday and the mining stocks also maybe declining people taking some of the money off the table in anticipation of that jobs report that we just been handed about 35 minutes ago um gold is moving I think uh we will see a rallying mining space yet again we're seeing a lot of news come out of the mining space just this morning. I'll I'll go into detail of some of them here shortly, but um the market is reacting. Let's let's look at the uh S&P 500 as well. Um oh, that's the wrong one. What uh did it do I have the right one here? There we go. No, it's not the right one. Is the spy. I'm looking for S&P 500. I don't look at it too much. There you go. Look at this market move. Like if you look at the S&P 500 move um personally, let's look at the three-month here. Why is this us? It's off the charts. It is off the charts. But let's look at the one month 5day. Oh, we need to move this here off. Maybe I should take a course in Trading View. What do you think? Anybody willing to sponsor that? Um but my point is the market has been rallying. Um let's share a different screen here. like I'm struggling with this part here. But let's take a look at this index move just one day or one week even. It's a massive jump. 6528 S&P 500 at new all-time highs pricing it or the market is now pricing at three rate cuts by the end of the year. One cut at least at every meeting. It is mind-blowing. I'm I'm not sure where that excitement comes from. Of course, the stock market is decoupled from the economy. There's it it doesn't make any sense to me as a very pragmatic person. You look at this and you think, well, the underlying economy can't be doing so well. Yet, the stock market is rallying in anticipation of cheaper rates, cheaper money, and potentially QE down the road. We'll have to see about that. Um, let let's take a look here. Um, just just looking at some of the comments here. All metals are up, obviously. Yes, gold and silver are rallying. Hey, hello to Florida. Appreciate it, Kerbone. Thanks so much for tuning in. Um, hope you're enjoying this. Hope this is uh informative. doing my best here to give you a good update this week of what I'm seeing. Of course, jobs report is front and center of what we're discussing. Um, jobs report. Uh, let's look at quick reaction bond market as well. Or you know what, before we do that, um, I want to share this tab. Um, I've been looking at this like I look at this daily almost these days. Uh, of course rate cut expectations of the Fed. Next meeting here is in 12 days. 98% one cut. But one thing has changed this morning and this is the second pillar that has popped up. The uh the 50 basis cut point cut now 2% chance. Chris Waller's been talking about it and I think gold has started to price in a jumbo cut. A jumbo cut meaning at least 50 basis points perhaps more um already and I think that's why gold has moved so strongly but it's now 2%. This didn't exist about an hour ago when I was looking at this. This is a new column uh which is really interesting. opening the door. Market is expecting more cuts um especially more cuts at the next meetings. We get three more meetings or we get three meetings this year. So September 17th, October 29th and December 10th. Uh what are your expectations? Put the put a comment down below as well. Really curious. Are we going to see a jumbo cut or just a trickling uh of of rate cuts here over the rest of the year? So but uh what does that mean? So, of course, reaction we will see. Let's take a look at the bond market here real quick. Um, of course, US bond markets. Let's take a look at the 10-year Treasury yield. Let's share this here. Um, it it has decreased. It has dropped. Uh, let's go one day. You can definitely see. Okay, we are seeing rate cuts. The question is how big uh long end of the market is starting to price in maybe more cuts even uh coming down 10 year down to 4 about 1% now in terms of yield. uh investors are getting positioned for cheaper money, locking in higher yields. Um we're also seeing that in the 30-year, which is really interesting, or the 20-y year, which is important for mortgage rates, by the way. Um curious to see if uh mortgage prices or mortgage rates get priced lower um once we see the cuts actually being implemented. That's uh something we're looking at here deeply because I have my reservations when it comes to that, especially when we're only looking at a 25 basis cut. Like why would mortgage rates drop significantly? Why would housing the housing market recover only because of a because of a smaller cut? Like I have my reservations. I've been mentioning them here before. And I've recorded a phenomenal interview with Sri Kumar uh just uh what was it yesterday morning which will be published here over the weekend. Go check that out when it comes out. He has some really clear points on why the Fed should actually be hiking rates right now because the inflation genie is still out there. It's uh still haunting us. Uh we're still looking at it. We're getting inflation data um next week, next Thursday, which will be another tell. So far, um everything points towards it because Powell said it himself. He's focused on the employment employment data and the employment report just today. I've sort of confirmed um what what Jerome Powell has been saying. Well, we're watching this and now he I think we can cement a at least 25 basis point cut in the prices. So, um, ju just going through the, um, through through the comments again, see if I'm missing anything. Um, appreciate everybody joining us here. ATM, Katy Lean, really appreciate it. Thanks so much for commenting. Um, let's, uh, dollar, dollar is another one I wanted to look at real quick because dollar of course is correlated with gold as well. Of course, um, massively down today, 73% massively. I'm exaggerating but uh in this grand scheme of things it is dropping um 97.6 six. Of course, you can also see here jobs report has been released. Dollars dropping, which is good for us in in the commodity space. Of course, uh everything I'm saying, please take that with a grain of salt. I come from the commodity side. I come from the gold and silver side. So, negative data is good for us sadly. Bit of an ethical dilemma, I have to admit, but that's something we're closing. Let's look at gold. Let's uh look at gold again here. This chart is a thing of beauty. 3574. Uh gold has reacted as I said to to the move. Um it has been a spectacular move. I just want to bring that one chart back up. Oh, I destroyed my trading view here. Uh that'll take too long to fix while I'm live. But uh gold has been running. Uh and now into this um uh let me just bring this back here. Let's uh has this hasn't switched over. Why hasn't this switched over? It should be showing. It's showing me the bond yields at 30-year, but it isn't switching to gold. Let me switch over to gold. Let me see this. Just want to show you the gold price here. Um, see, share this tab instead. Let's see this if this is Yeah, this has worked. I just want to see the gold price. And of course, we'll take a look at silver here as well. Uh, so gold's little brother. Of course, um, it is jumping. It is actually outpacing gold in gains. Gold up86% as we speak. Silver up 1.2% already. Um let's take a look here. Um let's see if we can break through 4150 or 4140. That that was the high this week. Um that's of course on the spot market. I I don't look at futures too much. Although I've shown you the futures price also in uh the December future price in gold, which is of course an indicator where things might be headed, but I'm more interested in the spot market. And 4118 on silver. Nice move here. uh as well following gold. Recession fears don't seem to be priced in here in silver. It's a more of a correlation to gold uh because we need to talk recession. This has to come up again. I was just watching a Bloomberg interview where the guest said like, well, you know, declining jobs market for the last what is it now almost four years where we started adding 400,000 jobs, 200,000 jobs. Now we're adding only 22,000 jobs a month. Um so there's obviously something a miss and we're running into recessionary fears yet again. uh silver as we all know uh has a bit of an industrial component to it 50% almost. So we have to watch that very closely whether we're whether the pumps are being bro whether the brakes are being pumped on on silver here in the coming months uh coming from the industrial side taking some of that uh excitement away from silver of course um that that said I don't see any excitement or anything slowing down silver right now we're we're on the run um I was listening to some commentary yesterday 42 needs to be uh is is the next level of resistance here in the silver price and we're we're moving towards it $42 once We're there. Apparently, there's no resistance. I'm not a chart technician. I'm not even sure what that really means. If there's no resistance to $50, um not even sure what the resistance could be. I think it's all about more buyers than sellers, quite honestly. Um so, we we'll have to see what what that means. But, um maybe personal anecdote, let me switch here to full screen real quick. Just personal anecdote. I had a chance to visit the monetary metals depository yesterday and one interesting comment I picked up was that they in the month of August they bought more gold and silver from uh consumers than they actually sold. So there's a lot of selling going on into the higher prices. The retail investor retail consumer um doesn't feel like holding on to to gold and silver and this price environment. Of course, it could also be an indicator of nearing financial trouble for the consumer because if you start selling your gold and silver and grandmother's jewelry, you might be plugging holes on other other places, meaning you're plugging holes in your credit card statements. Uh you might have to make ends meet on a daily basis. Um just just to cover daily expenses, food, grocery, even rent perhaps. So, uh it's an interesting indicator that I picked up and uh that's why I love traveling and doing these things. So, um pay attention to that. a lot of gold and silver being sold by retail and I've been hearing as well the mints are struggling because there's so much demand coming back or so much yeah re I would say retail demand what's what's the reverse uh if there's not demand there's demand for selling so people are willing to sell their gold and silver right now and pushing that one one thing I've queued up as well and I hope I can find it in the sea of tabs I have open here is um a gold a report from the from the world gold council Let me just share this screen yet again. And um one thing I'm looking at of course on a weekly basis and try to catch up with that uh here, let me roll up or let me scroll up here is of course ETF buying and what what does the World Gold Council see? They're tracking a lot of different things. Um and just in the last week as of August 29th, global gold ETF demand has finally picked up in North America and in Europe. We're seeing massive inflows and let me just get the data point here. So our model indicates that strong ETF inflows and rising volatility helped push towards or were were supported or sorry let me rephrase that you can read the sentence yourself here um but likely fed cut is pushing investors towards gold ETF inflows plus plus.9% here um really strong indicator investors are fleeing into gold not buying necessarily physical uh but ETF gold so if you really want to be cautious of course by physical, but that's a different story. We're not going to debate what you should be buying here. Um, really appreciate everybody's commentary here. Um, thanks so much for tuning in. Uh, Jerry Mandarin, ATM, I mentioned, perfect knowledge. Thanks so much. Uh, means a lot that you guys are watching. If you have any questions, I'll hope to get to some of them at the end here. Um, really running through this, uh, probably speaking way too fast. Only had one cup of coffee, hotel room coffee, um, which was a bit, uh, awful quite honestly. I like my coffee and uh that wasn't that great. Um so we we talked jobs report, we talked gold a little bit. Um of course we're we're looking at inflation data coming out at the end of this or end of next week on Thursday as well. Let me just bring up the calendar so you guys have an overview of what I'm looking at um as well. Uh where's the calendar? This is next week. Share this tab. So we're getting inflation data next Thursday, September 11th. Historic date as you all know. Uh maybe we're getting some historic inflation data. We'll we'll see. But I'm curious what your expectations are. Let me check in the in the comments. What are what are your expectations for in for the inflation data? Are we going to see another uptick in inflation? Really curious. Um tariffs still not priced in. We're still waiting for news on the tariff front between the US and China. Just read this morning the US is lowering tariffs on Japanese auto part imports. Uh so lots going on. Um that said, by the way, news out of the White House. Apparently, there's a big announcement supposed to happen at 400 p.m. Eastern um out of the White House. So, we'll we'll see what the announcement is going to be. 4 p.m. of course after market. Could be interesting. Could have huge implications. Uh the news about renaming the Department of Defense is already out. It's now the Department of War if you haven't heard that. Um really interesting tidbit. Now, let me take a quick look at my notes before I move on so I don't forget anything. Uh we talked about central bank buying uh in July or we haven't talked about central bank buying in July. was a bit slower, but we all saw that that gold was lacking an impulse. I don't think I have to bring that chart up. Go gold was lacking that impulse. I said it last week. Uh jobs report now finally got we we we got the impulses last week. The messaging from the Fed is very clear. Chris Waller said it jumbo cuts are even on the table. And I showed you Fed rate cut expectations just earlier. Um I think that really wraps up the macro. I think the the jobs report was overall just the biggest factor that we needed to look at. Let's let's take a quick look at some mining news stuff I'm following um that is relevant to my portfolio and maybe to yours as well. Just just some bigger news. Um what news this morning actually out or last night um Elemental Altas and EMX are merging uh forming a new royalty company Elemental Royalty Corp. close to a billion dollar in market cap. And the interesting part why I'm showing this to you is this here. Um, I'm not sure if you've been aware, but Tether Investments. So, that's a subsidiary of Tether, the crypto company, is investing another $100 million into Al Elemental Altas. They've already bought 47% of the company previously, and now they're adding to their shares. They're adding to their investment. Another US $101 million going into uh into a gold royalty company. It's a trend I'm watching very very closely because it's a lot of new money that could be flowing into our sector uh coming out of the crypto space because they want to back their tether stable coins with something tangible. Gold royalties is one thing because you can you can do the math. You can do some cash flow analysis and put that behind potential stable coins. The only thing missing here is of course the physical gold because Elemental Alta's EMX, they're not receiving any physical gold from their from their royalties, but just nice cash flow. Uh, another one um that has popped up this morning is another merger. Um, New Fun Gold is buying Maritime Resources. It's an interesting deal. It made sense like as you know, I was a director of Labrador Gold until May. Uh so I have a really good understanding of what is happening in New Finland and this deal makes a whole lot of sense to me for for NFG and Maritime uh to to merge together build a stronger capital base. Maritime was just ramping up uh production at uh from Hammerdown starting to go into production at Hammerdown. Uh they have a mill fully licensed on a port. So it really makes a lot of sense for NFG to jump in. They did have prior relations or prior relationship um before this deal was announced because an NFG gave Maritime about a two years ago a $2 million loan as well. So they're they've already seen that potential. Now Maritime was in a position to be taken out. Uh really good for New Funland because I think it'll really establish a nice new production hub there in uh in New Funland as well. Um so I think these are the most important mining. There's lots of financings I'm seeing as well. I've queued up uh I think I had had that queued up here, but I'll share you. I'm just uh one thing I do, of course, I really like following Junior Miner Mining Network. Quick shout out to these guys. Really doing a phenomenal job. Let me just zoom in here a little bit. Um because I want to show you the amount of financings that have been happening. All right, Allegian Gold closes 10 $10.5 million financing. Marramaka completes 80 million U Australian dollar book build. Amazing. That was announced only yesterday. Um, we have uh Magna Mining, $45 million financing. Tell me you're tell me we're in a bull market without telling me in a bull market. Just scroll down here and just take a look. Gross proceeds. ES Gold $5 million live financing. Uh, Bunker Hill, $45 million bought deal. That one had me roll my eyes because the stock was trading at 18 cents. Uh, just earlier this week, financing is now at 12 cents. I own this stock. My average price is 15 and I'm mad. I don't like it. Um, constantly being diluted. I'm just wait I was waiting for an exit quite honestly to get out of this deal. Now I got to wait a little longer again. Really frustrating but my you get my point. Lots of money flowing into this space. Um lots going on. Really excited to see that happen. I'm as I said I'm in the US right now. I'm doing a couple site visits before heading over to Beaver Creek in Colorado. Probably world's largest mining investment conference for the junior space happening there. uh starting Tuesday morning uh three days. I have over 30 meetings lined up with uh exploration companies, production or producers as well. Really excited to see that. And um getting a request, Leon, I'm seeing your post. Yeah, I can. Let's take a quick look at at Numont. Really like what they're doing as well. The chart of course in the S&P 500 getting lots of attention. Let me just cue that up here. Um really like showing this here. Let's see if anything's changed since I last looked at it. Um, let's see what the component returns are. Ah, new month dropped 23. Let me share this screen here real quick. Um, new months dropped two third again. Um, share screen. Year-to- date returns. There we go. Uh, Seagate has been picking up. I'm not following that, but uh, it's a hard drive company. Uh, I have a few hard drives from Seagate in my in my computer at home. U, Palanteer Pneumont now third. Uh, Numont obviously gold producer really like their cash flow. Six, if I'm not mistaken, $6.2 2 billion in cash right now. Question is now, what are they going to do with that cash? I've been hearing rumors about a number of deals to be presented to us or the market over the next 48 hours, 72 hours ahead of Beaver Creek. We've seen two already. I'm waiting for one more, a potential bigger one as well. My speculation, that's just speculation. I am gold might be in the play. I'm looking at Cotay being acquired. It is in that ramp up phase. Artemis is another target. They they are uh going through their ramp up right now producing at insane cash cost of $693 if I'm not mistaken. All in is about uh what was it? Uh $800 something dollars. Absolutely insane move. Um but let's take a quick look at the pneumon chart. Um NEM is the ticker. See, there we go. Let's take a look here to date. Um there we go. Ah, there we I'm starting to figure this out again. Trading View here. Maybe I just need to use it more. Uh so that's a year-to- date chart. Of course, massive move. Uh taking a bit of a breather like all the mining stocks this week uh started taking a bit of brever. People taking money off the table ahead of the jobs report. And uh can you see that? Yeah, you can. Okay, perfect. Um take taking money off the table ahead of the jobs report. It made sense uh to to do that. We didn't know. There's always surprises uh in store, but in the end it came out worse than than expected. Newmont now trading at what is it? 74.88. Um it is it is up sharply pre-market 7618. We'll see where it opens uh in about what is it? Six minutes. Market opens in six minutes. Um so we'll see a nice open here of the miners as well. Really excited to see that. So um ready to take a few more questions if you want. Uh doing this live as I said feel free to put them down in the comments. Uh, Leon or here. Um, uh, where are we? Where was the post? I was just looking. I was just gonna highlight that real quick. I really appreciate that. We just talked about Newmont here. Um, thanks so much for that comment here, Leon. Much appreciated. Um, if we have any more questions, uh, let me know. I'll be online for a couple more minutes. Um, ask me anything. Like, I haven't done a live or I haven't done a live all by myself in ever. I usually have a guest with me. Loiger will be joining us for the next fat life. commentary. We're doing that uh in about 10 days time right after the Fed press conference. And uh yeah, if there is no more questions, I really appreciate everybody tuning in. Let me put the put a bow around this. Uh gold is going to move. Let's take a look. See if we can get uh uh let's let's ceue up the GDX real quick. Where is my trading view? There we go. The GDX. See if we can get some pre-market data on that as well. Oh yeah, GDX opening up about a$150. um h yeah$ dollar50 higher uh this morning. So ma expect a massive run. We're going to see continue. I think the floor has been put in in gold with the rate to cut expectations. Really excited what we're seeing here. We are in a bull market. Have some fun out there. Trade accordingly. Be careful. It's not, you know, nobody's ever gone broke taken money off the table or gains off the table. So keep that in mind. And everybody else, thanks so much for watching. Have a great weekend. Uh, hope you enjoyed this live stream. Uh, let me know. I I'll post this obviously down below. Any comments are much much appreciated. Hope this was helpful and take care out there. Thanks so much for tuning in.