Federal Reserve Speculation: The market is anticipating a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with discussions around the size of the cut ranging from 25 to 50 basis points.
Gold Market Dynamics: Gold prices have seen a significant increase, with a nearly 4% monthly gain, driven by positive reactions to recent economic data and potential Fed rate cuts.
GDP Growth Insights: The US GDP growth rate has been revised upward to 3.3%, influenced by adjustments in import calculations and increased consumer spending, suggesting a stronger economy than previously perceived.
Geopolitical and Economic Factors: Nvidia's potential export of AI chips to China highlights ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade negotiations, with implications for the tech sector and broader market sentiment.
Mining Sector Developments: The mining industry is experiencing a resurgence, with significant financing activity and positive performance of mining stocks, indicating a potential bull market.
Investment Risks in Burkina Faso: Recent government actions in Burkina Faso, such as acquiring stakes in mining operations, raise concerns about investment stability in the region.
Upcoming Economic Indicators: Key economic data releases, including non-farm payrolls and unemployment rates, are expected to provide further insights into the Fed's monetary policy direction.
Transcript
The markets are brazing for a Fed rate cut here in September and we will have to speculate what type of cut will it be? 25 basis points, 50 basis points. Christopher Waller, one of the Fed governors, opened the door wide saying, "Well, I'm ready to vote on a jumbo cut." And with that said, welcome back to the SF Weekly wrap-up show. My name is Kai Hoff and I'm the JR Mining Guy over on X. And of course, you're a host of the Sore Financially YouTube channel where we host a ton of interviews with excellent market commentators to make sense of what is happening in the markets, what is shaping markets. We discuss the macro to understand the micro. Meaning, we look at geopolitics, we look at markets, we look at the Fed decision and many other factors to understand what is moving gold, what is moving silver, and what is moving our mining space. It's really, really interesting. So, thanks so much for joining us here. Don't forget to hit that like and subscribe button and let's jump into the weekly wrap-up here on Soore Financially. So, as I said, we have various data points uh been thrown at us uh this past week. I think most notably, we're still digesting the announcement or the the press conference by Jerome Powell in Jackson Hole last week. market is reacting, I dare I say positively to it from a gold perspective, very positive because uh at the end of the month we're looking at gold price over $3,400 3.9 almost 4% monthly gain here in gold which is exceptional which I'm really happy with but we'll have to look at some of the factors that going into that of course together. Now let's look at some of the data we've gotten this week um real quick. One one notable thing that we should be looking at is GDP growth rate 3.3%. It's been revised higher by 10%. It was expected to be 3%, now it's 3.3%. Why is that you ask? Well, there's been a adjustment to the calculation. Let's take a look closer look here at the official statement and is primarily reflected in the decrease of imports uh that have been subtracted from the GDP and an increase in consumer spending which is interesting. But if you scroll down, there's one little interesting thing. It opens the door wide to conspiracy theories quite honestly is um let me find it real quick. Uh D here within investment upward revisions to intellectual property products. What does that mean? Intellectual property those are not tangible. Those can't be calculated. I think you can just assume whatever price you want when it comes to intellectual property products and uh that opens the door wide to speculation. What does it mean? Um of course there are other factors going into it where revisions have taken place. Upward revision to consumer spending is reflected here as well. Uh pharmaceutical goods, healthcare, food and accommodations. We can assume that has to do with the summer travel season here. So it's just seasonality that's being reflected here in the GDP. Um which is uh to be expected I would assume. Uh but it also showcas that the economy is maybe stronger than we want to believe here. Like we've always been painting a negative picture here on sore financially. Meaning we always look at okay uh what could crack the markets? What could change? What could drive prices for commodities gold and silver in particularly higher? But we have to be realistic uh looking at the economic data here as well. Um 3.3% GDP growth. I think it's the strongest GDP growth here in uh the G7. Let's take a quick look. Uh let me just verify. I haven't queued that up. Let's just jump in real quick. Let me share the screen here yet again. And uh let's take a look at that cuz let's take a look. GDP growth. US 3.3, China 1.1%. Uh Germany, we're officially in recession. What are we talking about here? uh not sure why that is not being mentioned more widely Japan.3% UK.3% France.3% Italy negative GDP growth Canada barely positive as well.5 and that's it like so what what are we complaining about here right um economic data seems to be suggesting that the US economy is doing well of course at what cost that is a very different story we have to debate whether the US debt situation is sustainable. That is a very different topic of discussion. Maybe one that also leads to the uh the shenanigans on the HR side over at the Fed. Uh Lisa Cook supposed or been fired by President Trump uh just within the last week as well. uh courts now have to decide whether that firing will be upheld, but uh she can't be participating in any Fed decisions right now because even if if it gets confirmed the firing and she still shows up at work, then the Fed is making decisions that uh it cannot back, meaning um they're not warranted. You can't you can't do it. If you have an employee making votes there who is not an employee, then it's invalid. It doesn't work that way. So a very very dangerous topic which also leads to quite a bit of uncertainty in the markets and that we're seeing reflected in the gold price uh in particular as well not necessarily in the S&P 500 but in gold. So um I've mentioned in the intro. So let's take a look like what is the Fed uh what's the Fed indicator here. Let's take a look at the um let's take a look at the Fed data. Let's take a look at the market expectations here by the CME Group. uh 85.1% are expecting a 1% or sorry a 25 basis points. So a simple one uh on one step cut uh in the Fed funds rate. Fair. Okay, I get it. Jerome Powell opened the door to it. He's concerned about employment and uh that's why he's opening the door. Say, "Okay, we're looking at Fed cuts." But uh I've said it last week and uh from a pragmatic point of view, I don't see why rate cuts would make any sense. We just talked about the GDP data 3.3%. Why would you race into a healthy economy? What are they seeing that we're not? What is not healthy? Yes, we can discuss there are certain subsectors that are not doing as well. Employment u being impacted negatively, but I would make the contra case being discussing that with Jim Biano on our show this week is about illegal and immigration in general. If we're missing workers or if you were missing workers in the US, wouldn't that show up at some point in the employment data as well, wouldn't the job openings increase? Because at some point even uh uh illegitimate jobs would probably pop up on the legitimate list, don't you think? I do. And uh yes, there will be a lack until that happens. one. Um, on another note, uh, let me find this real quick is I mentioned it that the Fed and, uh, Fed Reserve Christopher Waller says he would be open to a jumbo cut in, uh, in September. What does that mean? Well, it's not just 25 basis points. He's looking at more. And he says that the August jobs report will be pivotal in setting the direction of monetary policy. Well, I agree because why would you cut rates if the job market is stable? Uh, and we still have to get an understanding of what he means by a jumbo cut. I've been skimming through the article here by the Financial Times. Uh, what what that means, but the market, especially today on Friday, and this article is from today, Friday, August 25 29th. Gold is reacting very positively potentially on the on those news. As you can see, it's been only published 49 minutes ago as recording this interview um or this weekly market wrap-up. And we're just collecting data and getting feedback from the market. Uh what that could mean. Let's take a look at the gold price together real quick. And uh let's see what that means. Like what is the impact here? Um so we're just looking at the what are we looking this is the two-day. All right, let's do the 5day. So, gold has actually been uh before I hit record button, we were at 3413, like $6 higher, which is fine. I That's all right. That's normal shenanigans um in the market. Let's take a look. So, when I Yeah. Yeah. I was looking at it here. So, 3411, but we're coming down. We're staying below above $3,400. So, the market and gold is pricing in those Fed cuts already. The question is how much is being priced in? Is the super cut that Christopher Waller wants to see perhaps um priced in? Well, we'll have to find out together quite honestly because it's really difficult to see what is priced in into the gold price these days. How much is of that is geopolitics? How much of that is fed shenanigans? How much of that is just market related? And how much of that is dollar decline? Let's take a look at the Dixie as well. Um, as a response as a result to that um 98 uh so the Dixie has been uh moving sideways. Let's take a look at the year-to- date chart. Uh it it is bottoming around that level it seems like right now. waiting for impulse maybe from the tariff front. Uh we'll we'll go into detail here in a second um what I think on tariffs and what we're seeing in corporate earnings uh as well from uh Nvidia. We'll we'll take a closer look at that here in a second. I'm just making sure that I've got all the macro stuff covered on the macro side before switching over. We talked about Trump uh exerting more pressure on the Fed, of course, switching out uh or forcing a switch out of Fed Governor. Steven Marin uh could be confirmed as by the end of or within the next two weeks is my understanding what I've been hearing. Uh he's definitely in the Trump camp. We had the the revised GDP we talked about. And now let's talk let's take a closer look at some of the micro micro data uh that we've received. Let's take a look at the uh the Nvidia earnings real quick. A really interesting indicator not just on sentiment in the main markets in general but also sentiment on geopolitics. Why is that important? AI AI Nvidia wants to export the H2O chip or H20 chips, sorry, not H2O, H20 chips to China and we're waiting to hear from the White House whether that is possible. Um, really important indicator on the geopolitical situation on the tariff situation between the US and China. As you recall, we still don't have a tariff deal between the two nations and that will be key. Um, one one thing like okay, Nvidia beat earnings. They expect3 to4 trillion dollars to be spent on AI infrastructure until 2030. That's a huge chunk of change. Nvidia will be reaping in most of that of course. So Nvidia beat on earnings and revenue for the quarter, issued guidance that uh the current period will be topping estimates as well. Great. But if you scroll down in the article, there's an interesting tidbit um that uh CEO Jensen Wong met with President Trump and Nvidia signal that it expected to get a US license to ship those H20 chips to China. That is an interesting indicator on what is happening on the tariff front. As you know, China is holding the rare holding rare earths over the US's head um in terms of negotiating tools. And this is an interesting indicator that we will maybe see a tariff deal um along down down the road, one that is positive for both sides. Not sure if it's just a goodie being thrown by President Trump or the White House administration towards China to get a deal done here. Um but those are the tidbits we're looking for in these releases um when it comes to that. Those are the indicators that we're looking for when it comes to market moves. So, um, that said, let's take a look at gold. Let's jump over to gold. Let's let's do that um before we get into some of the mining news uh to wrap up the week because there's been some interesting developments on the mining side as well. So, uh we briefly looked at gold 3407. It is still moving sideways. This is the year-to- date chart on gold. Um let's make it a little bigger here. We're still caught here, but gold wants to break out. What What is the trigger? What is the impulse going to be? I said it last week. I still don't know. I still don't know. Um Fed Fed governor is now talking about super cuts could be a potential trigger, but it's already being telegraphed. So, we have about what is it? Uh 3 weeks, 19 days, 19 days until um the next Fed decision. So, it's not really a black swan if it's already being telegraphed about 3 weeks out, right? uh it's being priced in and it wasn't just enough to push gold over the line here to to fully break out this morning. Again, we're recording this Friday morning, 9:30 a.m. European Central time. Um so, German time. It could change this afternoon once the US markets open around 3:30 hour time, of course. Uh but that's that's uh something we can't predict quite honestly. It's really difficult to do. Um but uh gold wants to move. Gold wants to break out and we've said it here last week and other technical analysts have been mentioning as well. Gold is moving is is moving in a in a in a triangle form and uh bull markets usually break out in in a bull market. Gold usually breaks out to the upside. Marcus Buslaf phrased that last week in his one of his shows on the axinetifon. I'm stealing it blatantly. Go check out his show by the way as well. It's fantastic commentary in German on on the mining side. Uh he takes a closer look at mining stocks as well. So go go check that out. good friend of ours. Um happy to send you his way. Now um let's take a look at silver as well. Silver is struggling a little bit. Um it's not showing the same um or I'm perceiving it as struggling a little bit. Not perceiving the same interest perhaps uh in from my perception as as gold is when it comes to that. Uh we're looking at a silver gold ratio of what is it 87 87.8. So it's ticking up just slightly ever so slightly. Um, but also means silver is not staying uh staying or moving luxep here with gold. Although silver is touching on $39. We've been, it seems like silver's been bouncing off the 329 uh the $39 level here a couple of times now in the last few days and once we break through 40 though, I think the bets are off. We're inching closer. Um, it feels like the fuse has been lit. Just a very long fuse. So, let's wait for that impulse. Let's see what the jobs report next week shows. Um and uh some of the other macro data uh that we might be expecting. Inflation data we're still uh waiting for before the Fed decision as well. Um copper has been putting an interesting move. Let me just bring up copper. I didn't prepare that here, but I've been reading about copper earlier this morning as well. Um let's take a look which one is the most interesting one. Let's take a copper. Let's take this one here. So uh as you can see, copper has been of course hit hard over the head. We talked about this last time uh in the last show, but uh it is slowly very slowly inching back up. Uh of course here on the 5day chart, we've seen the bottom here. Um but let's zoom out just a little. I just want to make sure that this is now we're coming from a lower base here. Of course, I'm not a technical analyst, so please excuse that. But what I'm seeing is that copper is starting to put in a bit of a recovery rally here. 455. Now it is driven by positive economic data. Maybe some of the confidence is coming back. Um, recession fears have I haven't heard the word recession quite honestly in any of the conversations uh I've had this week on the channel and I haven't really picked it up in mainstream news as well. I know CNN dropped the the the bad R word a few week a couple of weeks ago. Um, but nobody else has picked up on that. So, and with 3.3% GDP growth, there's no recession quite honestly. Let's let's be honest. Um, so maybe some of the confidence is coming back and copper, Dr. copper is signaling that confidence because now the tariff news are priced out. Uh copper is not being tariffed uh in the way we expected it to be. Now copper is recovering. Now um let's look at the mining side. We've got uh some interesting news this week. But before I do uh before I do that, I've I've had Rick Rule on the show just uh a couple of days ago. And uh I want to play a short clip from that cuz it really sets the mood. It really sets the tone. It's got me a little euphoric as well. Uh let let's listen in let's listen in what Rick had to say >> when it comes to that. Maybe let me let me go back one step before we get more granular yet again here, Rick. But uh are we in a bull market? Are we in a bonafide bull market? >> Absolutely, positively, without a doubt. Uh and I think by the way that we're in for a bull market that has legs. Uh that is to say a fairly long duration. Aren't you excited to hear that? We've been mentioning it and if you've been paying attention to charts and uh many other things in our space, just the gold price alone, one could assume, but we're so still waiting for sort of confirmation of what is happening, right? Well, let's take a look at the charts again. I've queued up here the the GDX um year-to- date performance is over 80%. The S&P is around 9 to 10% now, but uh the GDX, take a look at this. It's a beauty of a chart and we're finally moving. Juniors are starting to move. That is the interesting part. The GDXJ also up uh let me add it here to the let me add it to the chart here so you can see it as well. Let's use the same percentage scale. Well, they're moving up in lock step as well. 75% year-to-ate performance. Absolutely brilliant move. Gold up. Um let's throw in gold here as well. Let's have some fun with this chart. Um let's throw in gold as well just to give you an idea. Same percentage scale. gold is up 29%. So performing nicely. We've had uh um Derk Bower on he's a professor at the University of Western Australia and we I've I've asked him what is the historical correlation between gold and the mining stocks because I always thought it was 3:1 and he sort of agreed but he was leaning more closer to 2 to1. So we're already seeing massive outperformance uh by by the miners to the metal which is really really important to confirm that bull market breakout. And the other thing that is really important, let me get rid of this box here, is really important is the financing situation. Money is flowing back into the space at Orin Inc. U one of the companies here at that we that we run and have here at Soore Financial Tracks all the financing data and I should have queued up a chart and I apologize for that. But uh oric last year we've raised $4.2 billion within our coverage universe. Keep in mind that includes companies below $1.5 billion in market cap, Canadian dollars and bill financings, all equity financings below $100 million in in market cap in in size. So no debt, no uh convertibles, no other financial shenanigans here, just pure equity just to really take a look at the health of our sector. And as of mid August, financings open totaled already $3.5 billion. So, I'm thinking we're going to outpace last year. And we might be touching on 2021 levels again where we raised $6.2 billion. Back in 2011, it was over $8 billion. I don't think we're there yet. So, we're not in that frothy of an environment yet. And especially looking at who's raising money. I would say it's mostly the larger companies, meaning developers, later stage explorers or companies that have a really, really strong management team. It's not across the board yet. The tight hasn't lifted all boats yet. So that's very very good to see because that means that the uh the turds are still not floating with the tide which is great. So we're not in there. And also one other thing is I haven't seen a flurry of new deals come to market as well. It's still fairly quiet on that front. Maybe I'm just not tuned in anymore but or as much as maybe others but uh I'm still waiting for a flurry of new IPOs, new RTO's, new projects just coming to market. I was joking in another conversation this week. I haven't seen anything come out of Nevada or anything new come out of Nevada in a long time. Used to be one of my favorite mining jurisdictions and I haven't seen much yet. I don't have any money at work in Nevada right now. Uh which actually we do Rich Line, but that company is already a few years old. I think 2019 it was set up. So nothing new. So um that is that. But let's take a look at some mining news real quick. And we got some concerning news out of Burkina Faso. Uh very frustrating news but it was to be expected and uh let's take a look here. West African resources put out a press release yesterday August 28th uh that came with its trading halt and it was a request from the Bkina Faso government to acquire for valuable paid consideration additional 35% of the company's subsidiary Kiyaka uh mine. The mine is just going into production. It poured first gold only recently. Uh it is planned or scheduled let me have let me take a look here. 234,000 ounces of gold production per atom for 20 years starting in 2025. So, we're in the ramp up phase and I'm really concerned what this means. Yesterday, Orzone already said uh put out a news release saying uh or put out a trading halt or had their stock halted, put out a news release says yes, we're affected by this or we're not affect sorry, we're not affected by this. We haven't received a similar request, but quite honestly, once bitten, twice shy, right? Um I'm selling my position in Orzone. uh I should have seen this coming or this was writing was on the wall that something like this would happen. We can all argue what valuable paid consideration means. Now that the company's going into production, the comp Bina Faso government wants to step in and buy an additional 35%. Um I doubt that they will pay fair value quite honestly nor can they. The GDP of Burkina Faso is $23 billion if I'm not mistaken. Um and they have outstanding debt with international debtors. So let's assume 235,000 ounces. What is that worth? 2 billion 1.5. Let's say in Africa it's a billion dollars worth 35%. That is $350 million US for that chunk. Can they afford it? I have my doubts. And that is where I draw the line. That's where it gets complicated. And that's why I'm selling my position in Orzone cuz why would they stop at the fence line and not move over and do the same thing over there? Uh it doesn't make any sense. So I'm I'm leaving the country. I'm done with I was too greedy. I should have sold long ago. I bought my position personally, my personal, it was in my personal portfolio at 90 cents. Uh should have sold at a buck 30, but I was greedy. I was betting on the bull market to continue in that stock. Um it's taken a long time to get to that level. A lot of operational issues been slowing down the process. Um I should have sold. It was visible. It was obvious that this would happen. So yeah, fool me once, but uh done with that story, unfortunately. So, um let's see what else have I queued up. Uh oh, yeah, I've been doing a bit of research whether Burkina Faso can actually afford um buying the 35% chunk. And you come into you you come across some interesting commentary. I have no idea who's behind the African report files, nor do I really care quite honestly. But um apparently Burkina Faso generates $18 billion from gold since EPA took power. Um, and then I looked at how much gold Bkina Faso actually produces. Uh, and it's 60,000 ounces. Um, or sorry, yes, 60, sorry, 60 tons of gold and 32,000 ounces are one ton. You can do the math. You It's roughly $6 billion a year. So, but that's the whole country's production. That means the Bkina Faso government would have to take control of the whole the whole uh, pardon me, the whole production in the country, which is not true. So there's a lot of uh fake news coming out of there as well and uh we'll have to see if the government can finance it. You just type in Bkina Faso international debt and you see that the government or the Burkina Faso country actually owes international debt. There's $5.6 billion. So I'm not sure how they can come up with that money. So um what else have I queued up? I think that's pretty much it on the mining side. And that sort of puts a bow around our wrap-up weekly wrap-up as well. Well, I hope it was informative and interesting for you. Uh before before I end my conversation here with you gents, uh let's take a look at the Deutsche Gold Messa. I really want you to I really want to highlight this. I'm really excited about what we're doing here November 14th and 15th in Frankfurt. Uh and we're looking at phenomenal keynote speakers. Let me bring them up here on the screen. Uh in case you don't know, we had we have Rig Rule coming out. Uh I've had him on the channel just this week. uh Keith Nummire, Alex Kina, phenomenal geopolitical commentator, David Finch, phenomenal mining investor in the space. He's the the CEO of Ixio's asset management. Marcus Buslav highlighted him earlier in this conversation in this weekly wrap-up as a very smart probably the most influential newsletter writer and stock com mining stock commentator in Germany right now. John Forward, very smart in exploration stage investor. 30% of his portfolio is in grassroots explorers. Go check out the local resources fund uh for his portfolio. Really interesting stuff in there. And Keith Nomire of course I'm not sure he needs a lot of introduction but he's Mr. Silver CEO of First Majestics and uh we have a couple fantastic panel guests as well. Christian Vatian Clen Chambers just to mention a couple. We have a few more lined up here. We'll be adding them to the website as well. But be reminded it's free to register uh for for an interested investors. Just keep in mind this is a professional investment event. We don't have booths. We have about 30 mining companies joining us in Frankfurt that are looking forward to meeting with investors um to to present their story. So, make sure to use that. And uh with that said, let me uh thank you very much for tuning in. Happy Labor Day weekend. And uh one one thing I've actually queued up. Let's uh let's end on that. It is the economic calendar for next week. Let's take a look together at what we can expect uh what should we be paying attention to um in in the marketplace. That could be market moving. Let's switch to this view here. Uh we have ISA and manufacturing data. That'll be interesting as well. But uh let's be honest, Jolt's job opening report on Wednesday, but then non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate will be key to really understand why the Fed opened the door last week in Jackson Hole. So that's coming out on Friday. I will be traveling next week. Um I'll be on the road as of Wednesday. I'm my I'm flying out to Idaho. I'm going to do two site visits. Hercules, a portfolio holding here at Kam in the Kamakus Resource Fund, uh, and Scout Discoveries, a private company just next door to Hercules, which I'm personally invested in. But then I'm off to Beaver Creek. Really looking forward to attending the conference. I have over 30 meetings lined up in 3 days with mining companies to dive deep, look at some opportunities, and find a few more exciting positions for our fund as well. Uh, let's see if there's some bargains to be had because a lot of stocks have moved already. So, time to do our homework, time to find some value. Thank you so much for tuning in. Let us know what you think about these Markly weekly market wrap-up episodes. This is only the second one. This is far from perfect. Comment down below and subscribe to the channel. Thank you so much for tuning in and we'll be back with lots more here on Sore Financially. Take care out there. [Music]
Why GOLD Wants to Break Out NOW | Kai Hoffmann
Summary
Transcript
The markets are brazing for a Fed rate cut here in September and we will have to speculate what type of cut will it be? 25 basis points, 50 basis points. Christopher Waller, one of the Fed governors, opened the door wide saying, "Well, I'm ready to vote on a jumbo cut." And with that said, welcome back to the SF Weekly wrap-up show. My name is Kai Hoff and I'm the JR Mining Guy over on X. And of course, you're a host of the Sore Financially YouTube channel where we host a ton of interviews with excellent market commentators to make sense of what is happening in the markets, what is shaping markets. We discuss the macro to understand the micro. Meaning, we look at geopolitics, we look at markets, we look at the Fed decision and many other factors to understand what is moving gold, what is moving silver, and what is moving our mining space. It's really, really interesting. So, thanks so much for joining us here. Don't forget to hit that like and subscribe button and let's jump into the weekly wrap-up here on Soore Financially. So, as I said, we have various data points uh been thrown at us uh this past week. I think most notably, we're still digesting the announcement or the the press conference by Jerome Powell in Jackson Hole last week. market is reacting, I dare I say positively to it from a gold perspective, very positive because uh at the end of the month we're looking at gold price over $3,400 3.9 almost 4% monthly gain here in gold which is exceptional which I'm really happy with but we'll have to look at some of the factors that going into that of course together. Now let's look at some of the data we've gotten this week um real quick. One one notable thing that we should be looking at is GDP growth rate 3.3%. It's been revised higher by 10%. It was expected to be 3%, now it's 3.3%. Why is that you ask? Well, there's been a adjustment to the calculation. Let's take a look closer look here at the official statement and is primarily reflected in the decrease of imports uh that have been subtracted from the GDP and an increase in consumer spending which is interesting. But if you scroll down, there's one little interesting thing. It opens the door wide to conspiracy theories quite honestly is um let me find it real quick. Uh D here within investment upward revisions to intellectual property products. What does that mean? Intellectual property those are not tangible. Those can't be calculated. I think you can just assume whatever price you want when it comes to intellectual property products and uh that opens the door wide to speculation. What does it mean? Um of course there are other factors going into it where revisions have taken place. Upward revision to consumer spending is reflected here as well. Uh pharmaceutical goods, healthcare, food and accommodations. We can assume that has to do with the summer travel season here. So it's just seasonality that's being reflected here in the GDP. Um which is uh to be expected I would assume. Uh but it also showcas that the economy is maybe stronger than we want to believe here. Like we've always been painting a negative picture here on sore financially. Meaning we always look at okay uh what could crack the markets? What could change? What could drive prices for commodities gold and silver in particularly higher? But we have to be realistic uh looking at the economic data here as well. Um 3.3% GDP growth. I think it's the strongest GDP growth here in uh the G7. Let's take a quick look. Uh let me just verify. I haven't queued that up. Let's just jump in real quick. Let me share the screen here yet again. And uh let's take a look at that cuz let's take a look. GDP growth. US 3.3, China 1.1%. Uh Germany, we're officially in recession. What are we talking about here? uh not sure why that is not being mentioned more widely Japan.3% UK.3% France.3% Italy negative GDP growth Canada barely positive as well.5 and that's it like so what what are we complaining about here right um economic data seems to be suggesting that the US economy is doing well of course at what cost that is a very different story we have to debate whether the US debt situation is sustainable. That is a very different topic of discussion. Maybe one that also leads to the uh the shenanigans on the HR side over at the Fed. Uh Lisa Cook supposed or been fired by President Trump uh just within the last week as well. uh courts now have to decide whether that firing will be upheld, but uh she can't be participating in any Fed decisions right now because even if if it gets confirmed the firing and she still shows up at work, then the Fed is making decisions that uh it cannot back, meaning um they're not warranted. You can't you can't do it. If you have an employee making votes there who is not an employee, then it's invalid. It doesn't work that way. So a very very dangerous topic which also leads to quite a bit of uncertainty in the markets and that we're seeing reflected in the gold price uh in particular as well not necessarily in the S&P 500 but in gold. So um I've mentioned in the intro. So let's take a look like what is the Fed uh what's the Fed indicator here. Let's take a look at the um let's take a look at the Fed data. Let's take a look at the market expectations here by the CME Group. uh 85.1% are expecting a 1% or sorry a 25 basis points. So a simple one uh on one step cut uh in the Fed funds rate. Fair. Okay, I get it. Jerome Powell opened the door to it. He's concerned about employment and uh that's why he's opening the door. Say, "Okay, we're looking at Fed cuts." But uh I've said it last week and uh from a pragmatic point of view, I don't see why rate cuts would make any sense. We just talked about the GDP data 3.3%. Why would you race into a healthy economy? What are they seeing that we're not? What is not healthy? Yes, we can discuss there are certain subsectors that are not doing as well. Employment u being impacted negatively, but I would make the contra case being discussing that with Jim Biano on our show this week is about illegal and immigration in general. If we're missing workers or if you were missing workers in the US, wouldn't that show up at some point in the employment data as well, wouldn't the job openings increase? Because at some point even uh uh illegitimate jobs would probably pop up on the legitimate list, don't you think? I do. And uh yes, there will be a lack until that happens. one. Um, on another note, uh, let me find this real quick is I mentioned it that the Fed and, uh, Fed Reserve Christopher Waller says he would be open to a jumbo cut in, uh, in September. What does that mean? Well, it's not just 25 basis points. He's looking at more. And he says that the August jobs report will be pivotal in setting the direction of monetary policy. Well, I agree because why would you cut rates if the job market is stable? Uh, and we still have to get an understanding of what he means by a jumbo cut. I've been skimming through the article here by the Financial Times. Uh, what what that means, but the market, especially today on Friday, and this article is from today, Friday, August 25 29th. Gold is reacting very positively potentially on the on those news. As you can see, it's been only published 49 minutes ago as recording this interview um or this weekly market wrap-up. And we're just collecting data and getting feedback from the market. Uh what that could mean. Let's take a look at the gold price together real quick. And uh let's see what that means. Like what is the impact here? Um so we're just looking at the what are we looking this is the two-day. All right, let's do the 5day. So, gold has actually been uh before I hit record button, we were at 3413, like $6 higher, which is fine. I That's all right. That's normal shenanigans um in the market. Let's take a look. So, when I Yeah. Yeah. I was looking at it here. So, 3411, but we're coming down. We're staying below above $3,400. So, the market and gold is pricing in those Fed cuts already. The question is how much is being priced in? Is the super cut that Christopher Waller wants to see perhaps um priced in? Well, we'll have to find out together quite honestly because it's really difficult to see what is priced in into the gold price these days. How much is of that is geopolitics? How much of that is fed shenanigans? How much of that is just market related? And how much of that is dollar decline? Let's take a look at the Dixie as well. Um, as a response as a result to that um 98 uh so the Dixie has been uh moving sideways. Let's take a look at the year-to- date chart. Uh it it is bottoming around that level it seems like right now. waiting for impulse maybe from the tariff front. Uh we'll we'll go into detail here in a second um what I think on tariffs and what we're seeing in corporate earnings uh as well from uh Nvidia. We'll we'll take a closer look at that here in a second. I'm just making sure that I've got all the macro stuff covered on the macro side before switching over. We talked about Trump uh exerting more pressure on the Fed, of course, switching out uh or forcing a switch out of Fed Governor. Steven Marin uh could be confirmed as by the end of or within the next two weeks is my understanding what I've been hearing. Uh he's definitely in the Trump camp. We had the the revised GDP we talked about. And now let's talk let's take a closer look at some of the micro micro data uh that we've received. Let's take a look at the uh the Nvidia earnings real quick. A really interesting indicator not just on sentiment in the main markets in general but also sentiment on geopolitics. Why is that important? AI AI Nvidia wants to export the H2O chip or H20 chips, sorry, not H2O, H20 chips to China and we're waiting to hear from the White House whether that is possible. Um, really important indicator on the geopolitical situation on the tariff situation between the US and China. As you recall, we still don't have a tariff deal between the two nations and that will be key. Um, one one thing like okay, Nvidia beat earnings. They expect3 to4 trillion dollars to be spent on AI infrastructure until 2030. That's a huge chunk of change. Nvidia will be reaping in most of that of course. So Nvidia beat on earnings and revenue for the quarter, issued guidance that uh the current period will be topping estimates as well. Great. But if you scroll down in the article, there's an interesting tidbit um that uh CEO Jensen Wong met with President Trump and Nvidia signal that it expected to get a US license to ship those H20 chips to China. That is an interesting indicator on what is happening on the tariff front. As you know, China is holding the rare holding rare earths over the US's head um in terms of negotiating tools. And this is an interesting indicator that we will maybe see a tariff deal um along down down the road, one that is positive for both sides. Not sure if it's just a goodie being thrown by President Trump or the White House administration towards China to get a deal done here. Um but those are the tidbits we're looking for in these releases um when it comes to that. Those are the indicators that we're looking for when it comes to market moves. So, um, that said, let's take a look at gold. Let's jump over to gold. Let's let's do that um before we get into some of the mining news uh to wrap up the week because there's been some interesting developments on the mining side as well. So, uh we briefly looked at gold 3407. It is still moving sideways. This is the year-to- date chart on gold. Um let's make it a little bigger here. We're still caught here, but gold wants to break out. What What is the trigger? What is the impulse going to be? I said it last week. I still don't know. I still don't know. Um Fed Fed governor is now talking about super cuts could be a potential trigger, but it's already being telegraphed. So, we have about what is it? Uh 3 weeks, 19 days, 19 days until um the next Fed decision. So, it's not really a black swan if it's already being telegraphed about 3 weeks out, right? uh it's being priced in and it wasn't just enough to push gold over the line here to to fully break out this morning. Again, we're recording this Friday morning, 9:30 a.m. European Central time. Um so, German time. It could change this afternoon once the US markets open around 3:30 hour time, of course. Uh but that's that's uh something we can't predict quite honestly. It's really difficult to do. Um but uh gold wants to move. Gold wants to break out and we've said it here last week and other technical analysts have been mentioning as well. Gold is moving is is moving in a in a in a triangle form and uh bull markets usually break out in in a bull market. Gold usually breaks out to the upside. Marcus Buslaf phrased that last week in his one of his shows on the axinetifon. I'm stealing it blatantly. Go check out his show by the way as well. It's fantastic commentary in German on on the mining side. Uh he takes a closer look at mining stocks as well. So go go check that out. good friend of ours. Um happy to send you his way. Now um let's take a look at silver as well. Silver is struggling a little bit. Um it's not showing the same um or I'm perceiving it as struggling a little bit. Not perceiving the same interest perhaps uh in from my perception as as gold is when it comes to that. Uh we're looking at a silver gold ratio of what is it 87 87.8. So it's ticking up just slightly ever so slightly. Um, but also means silver is not staying uh staying or moving luxep here with gold. Although silver is touching on $39. We've been, it seems like silver's been bouncing off the 329 uh the $39 level here a couple of times now in the last few days and once we break through 40 though, I think the bets are off. We're inching closer. Um, it feels like the fuse has been lit. Just a very long fuse. So, let's wait for that impulse. Let's see what the jobs report next week shows. Um and uh some of the other macro data uh that we might be expecting. Inflation data we're still uh waiting for before the Fed decision as well. Um copper has been putting an interesting move. Let me just bring up copper. I didn't prepare that here, but I've been reading about copper earlier this morning as well. Um let's take a look which one is the most interesting one. Let's take a copper. Let's take this one here. So uh as you can see, copper has been of course hit hard over the head. We talked about this last time uh in the last show, but uh it is slowly very slowly inching back up. Uh of course here on the 5day chart, we've seen the bottom here. Um but let's zoom out just a little. I just want to make sure that this is now we're coming from a lower base here. Of course, I'm not a technical analyst, so please excuse that. But what I'm seeing is that copper is starting to put in a bit of a recovery rally here. 455. Now it is driven by positive economic data. Maybe some of the confidence is coming back. Um, recession fears have I haven't heard the word recession quite honestly in any of the conversations uh I've had this week on the channel and I haven't really picked it up in mainstream news as well. I know CNN dropped the the the bad R word a few week a couple of weeks ago. Um, but nobody else has picked up on that. So, and with 3.3% GDP growth, there's no recession quite honestly. Let's let's be honest. Um, so maybe some of the confidence is coming back and copper, Dr. copper is signaling that confidence because now the tariff news are priced out. Uh copper is not being tariffed uh in the way we expected it to be. Now copper is recovering. Now um let's look at the mining side. We've got uh some interesting news this week. But before I do uh before I do that, I've I've had Rick Rule on the show just uh a couple of days ago. And uh I want to play a short clip from that cuz it really sets the mood. It really sets the tone. It's got me a little euphoric as well. Uh let let's listen in let's listen in what Rick had to say >> when it comes to that. Maybe let me let me go back one step before we get more granular yet again here, Rick. But uh are we in a bull market? Are we in a bonafide bull market? >> Absolutely, positively, without a doubt. Uh and I think by the way that we're in for a bull market that has legs. Uh that is to say a fairly long duration. Aren't you excited to hear that? We've been mentioning it and if you've been paying attention to charts and uh many other things in our space, just the gold price alone, one could assume, but we're so still waiting for sort of confirmation of what is happening, right? Well, let's take a look at the charts again. I've queued up here the the GDX um year-to- date performance is over 80%. The S&P is around 9 to 10% now, but uh the GDX, take a look at this. It's a beauty of a chart and we're finally moving. Juniors are starting to move. That is the interesting part. The GDXJ also up uh let me add it here to the let me add it to the chart here so you can see it as well. Let's use the same percentage scale. Well, they're moving up in lock step as well. 75% year-to-ate performance. Absolutely brilliant move. Gold up. Um let's throw in gold here as well. Let's have some fun with this chart. Um let's throw in gold as well just to give you an idea. Same percentage scale. gold is up 29%. So performing nicely. We've had uh um Derk Bower on he's a professor at the University of Western Australia and we I've I've asked him what is the historical correlation between gold and the mining stocks because I always thought it was 3:1 and he sort of agreed but he was leaning more closer to 2 to1. So we're already seeing massive outperformance uh by by the miners to the metal which is really really important to confirm that bull market breakout. And the other thing that is really important, let me get rid of this box here, is really important is the financing situation. Money is flowing back into the space at Orin Inc. U one of the companies here at that we that we run and have here at Soore Financial Tracks all the financing data and I should have queued up a chart and I apologize for that. But uh oric last year we've raised $4.2 billion within our coverage universe. Keep in mind that includes companies below $1.5 billion in market cap, Canadian dollars and bill financings, all equity financings below $100 million in in market cap in in size. So no debt, no uh convertibles, no other financial shenanigans here, just pure equity just to really take a look at the health of our sector. And as of mid August, financings open totaled already $3.5 billion. So, I'm thinking we're going to outpace last year. And we might be touching on 2021 levels again where we raised $6.2 billion. Back in 2011, it was over $8 billion. I don't think we're there yet. So, we're not in that frothy of an environment yet. And especially looking at who's raising money. I would say it's mostly the larger companies, meaning developers, later stage explorers or companies that have a really, really strong management team. It's not across the board yet. The tight hasn't lifted all boats yet. So that's very very good to see because that means that the uh the turds are still not floating with the tide which is great. So we're not in there. And also one other thing is I haven't seen a flurry of new deals come to market as well. It's still fairly quiet on that front. Maybe I'm just not tuned in anymore but or as much as maybe others but uh I'm still waiting for a flurry of new IPOs, new RTO's, new projects just coming to market. I was joking in another conversation this week. I haven't seen anything come out of Nevada or anything new come out of Nevada in a long time. Used to be one of my favorite mining jurisdictions and I haven't seen much yet. I don't have any money at work in Nevada right now. Uh which actually we do Rich Line, but that company is already a few years old. I think 2019 it was set up. So nothing new. So um that is that. But let's take a look at some mining news real quick. And we got some concerning news out of Burkina Faso. Uh very frustrating news but it was to be expected and uh let's take a look here. West African resources put out a press release yesterday August 28th uh that came with its trading halt and it was a request from the Bkina Faso government to acquire for valuable paid consideration additional 35% of the company's subsidiary Kiyaka uh mine. The mine is just going into production. It poured first gold only recently. Uh it is planned or scheduled let me have let me take a look here. 234,000 ounces of gold production per atom for 20 years starting in 2025. So, we're in the ramp up phase and I'm really concerned what this means. Yesterday, Orzone already said uh put out a news release saying uh or put out a trading halt or had their stock halted, put out a news release says yes, we're affected by this or we're not affect sorry, we're not affected by this. We haven't received a similar request, but quite honestly, once bitten, twice shy, right? Um I'm selling my position in Orzone. uh I should have seen this coming or this was writing was on the wall that something like this would happen. We can all argue what valuable paid consideration means. Now that the company's going into production, the comp Bina Faso government wants to step in and buy an additional 35%. Um I doubt that they will pay fair value quite honestly nor can they. The GDP of Burkina Faso is $23 billion if I'm not mistaken. Um and they have outstanding debt with international debtors. So let's assume 235,000 ounces. What is that worth? 2 billion 1.5. Let's say in Africa it's a billion dollars worth 35%. That is $350 million US for that chunk. Can they afford it? I have my doubts. And that is where I draw the line. That's where it gets complicated. And that's why I'm selling my position in Orzone cuz why would they stop at the fence line and not move over and do the same thing over there? Uh it doesn't make any sense. So I'm I'm leaving the country. I'm done with I was too greedy. I should have sold long ago. I bought my position personally, my personal, it was in my personal portfolio at 90 cents. Uh should have sold at a buck 30, but I was greedy. I was betting on the bull market to continue in that stock. Um it's taken a long time to get to that level. A lot of operational issues been slowing down the process. Um I should have sold. It was visible. It was obvious that this would happen. So yeah, fool me once, but uh done with that story, unfortunately. So, um let's see what else have I queued up. Uh oh, yeah, I've been doing a bit of research whether Burkina Faso can actually afford um buying the 35% chunk. And you come into you you come across some interesting commentary. I have no idea who's behind the African report files, nor do I really care quite honestly. But um apparently Burkina Faso generates $18 billion from gold since EPA took power. Um, and then I looked at how much gold Bkina Faso actually produces. Uh, and it's 60,000 ounces. Um, or sorry, yes, 60, sorry, 60 tons of gold and 32,000 ounces are one ton. You can do the math. You It's roughly $6 billion a year. So, but that's the whole country's production. That means the Bkina Faso government would have to take control of the whole the whole uh, pardon me, the whole production in the country, which is not true. So there's a lot of uh fake news coming out of there as well and uh we'll have to see if the government can finance it. You just type in Bkina Faso international debt and you see that the government or the Burkina Faso country actually owes international debt. There's $5.6 billion. So I'm not sure how they can come up with that money. So um what else have I queued up? I think that's pretty much it on the mining side. And that sort of puts a bow around our wrap-up weekly wrap-up as well. Well, I hope it was informative and interesting for you. Uh before before I end my conversation here with you gents, uh let's take a look at the Deutsche Gold Messa. I really want you to I really want to highlight this. I'm really excited about what we're doing here November 14th and 15th in Frankfurt. Uh and we're looking at phenomenal keynote speakers. Let me bring them up here on the screen. Uh in case you don't know, we had we have Rig Rule coming out. Uh I've had him on the channel just this week. uh Keith Nummire, Alex Kina, phenomenal geopolitical commentator, David Finch, phenomenal mining investor in the space. He's the the CEO of Ixio's asset management. Marcus Buslav highlighted him earlier in this conversation in this weekly wrap-up as a very smart probably the most influential newsletter writer and stock com mining stock commentator in Germany right now. John Forward, very smart in exploration stage investor. 30% of his portfolio is in grassroots explorers. Go check out the local resources fund uh for his portfolio. Really interesting stuff in there. And Keith Nomire of course I'm not sure he needs a lot of introduction but he's Mr. Silver CEO of First Majestics and uh we have a couple fantastic panel guests as well. Christian Vatian Clen Chambers just to mention a couple. We have a few more lined up here. We'll be adding them to the website as well. But be reminded it's free to register uh for for an interested investors. Just keep in mind this is a professional investment event. We don't have booths. We have about 30 mining companies joining us in Frankfurt that are looking forward to meeting with investors um to to present their story. So, make sure to use that. And uh with that said, let me uh thank you very much for tuning in. Happy Labor Day weekend. And uh one one thing I've actually queued up. Let's uh let's end on that. It is the economic calendar for next week. Let's take a look together at what we can expect uh what should we be paying attention to um in in the marketplace. That could be market moving. Let's switch to this view here. Uh we have ISA and manufacturing data. That'll be interesting as well. But uh let's be honest, Jolt's job opening report on Wednesday, but then non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate will be key to really understand why the Fed opened the door last week in Jackson Hole. So that's coming out on Friday. I will be traveling next week. Um I'll be on the road as of Wednesday. I'm my I'm flying out to Idaho. I'm going to do two site visits. Hercules, a portfolio holding here at Kam in the Kamakus Resource Fund, uh, and Scout Discoveries, a private company just next door to Hercules, which I'm personally invested in. But then I'm off to Beaver Creek. Really looking forward to attending the conference. I have over 30 meetings lined up in 3 days with mining companies to dive deep, look at some opportunities, and find a few more exciting positions for our fund as well. Uh, let's see if there's some bargains to be had because a lot of stocks have moved already. So, time to do our homework, time to find some value. Thank you so much for tuning in. Let us know what you think about these Markly weekly market wrap-up episodes. This is only the second one. This is far from perfect. Comment down below and subscribe to the channel. Thank you so much for tuning in and we'll be back with lots more here on Sore Financially. Take care out there. [Music]