Market Insights: The discussion highlighted the recent volatility in the stock market, particularly focusing on financials and the impact of private credit market issues, suggesting potential risks and opportunities for investors.
Commodity Focus: There was a significant emphasis on the performance of metals, with gold and silver experiencing substantial rallies, driven by central bank buying and geopolitical factors, while copper lagged due to supply issues and economic conditions in China.
Investment Strategies: The conversation included strategies for investing in the metals market, such as using futures and options to manage risk and capture upside potential, particularly in the context of the current gold and silver bull market.
Sector Performance: The podcast discussed the strong performance of the metals and mining sector, which has seen a near 100% increase this year, and the contrasting underperformance of sectors like consumer staples and utilities, highlighting shifts in market dynamics.
Retail Investor Activity: There was a focus on the high level of retail investor activity, particularly in call options, which has contributed to market movements and raised concerns about potential market frothiness.
Macro Trends: The discussion touched on macroeconomic trends, including the impact of central bank policies and geopolitical developments on commodity prices and market sentiment, emphasizing the interconnectedness of global markets.
Tech Sector Outlook: The podcast explored the outlook for major tech stocks, noting the potential for strong earnings reports to drive market performance, particularly for companies like Amazon and Nvidia, which are central to the AI and tech investment narrative.
Investment Themes: Overall, the podcast highlighted key investment themes such as the ongoing AI boom, the role of central bank policies in shaping market conditions, and the importance of strategic positioning in volatile markets.
Transcript
What part of Chicago did you grow up in? >> I'm from Maryland City. >> Come home. >> Oh, you were in Maryland. >> I grew up in Maryland. Rockville. I didn't know that. >> Good old Rockville, Maryland. >> You're a Commander fan. >> Yeah. That was a brutal brutal loss >> to the Yeah. Well, it happens. >> I mean, well, makes it worse is against the team in Chicago. So, I go going to work, hear it from everybody else. Brutal loss, though. >> We're going to go to a Commander game, Michael and I. Oh, yeah. A couple weeks. Yeah. We're going to we're going to go to the Lions game. >> The stadium's a piece of [ __ ] I hear. Can't be worse than Metland. We were supposed to move back to DC. >> How is the state is garbage though, right? >> It's been a while. It's it's it's inconvenient to get to just like Soldier Field is in Chicago. >> Metife is the absolute worst. >> I went to a Jets game last year. >> Yeah, the Nothing's more convenient than the Giants at the stadium early and I was glad I was able to get out of there. It was a Monday night football game against the Bills. >> I think they hit a Did they win Mary? Just kidding. >> No, Bills won, but I think I think Rogers threw a Hill Mary at the end of the second into the first half. That hit. No, >> the faith. >> Um, the the Gen Z's want to have an office Halloween party. >> We do. >> What does that mean? Like physically in the office or >> buy a 12oot skeleton? >> They want they want to come in and costume is what do we do? >> Make it Make it Make it I'm not here. >> Oh my goodness. >> I saw >> Wait, what day would what day would it be? >> Thursday. The day before. >> Thursday the 30th. >> Yeah. >> All right. Halloween costumes. >> Yay. >> Okay. >> Wait a minute. >> Thursday, October 30th. >> You want me to put it on Home Office? Do we have a show that day? >> Inside Out characters. >> Your home office. >> You can be angry. My gosh. >> Thursday. >> You know, Halloween was on Thursday last year, too. >> 30th. >> Was it? >> I know it was an issue. >> No, it's not Thursday, though. The actual Halloween's Friday. >> You guys dressed up with 30th. >> I don't know dates. I don't even know when when's Thanksgiving. It's the same time every year. November. >> Just so you know. >> Is it is the is Thanksgiving? >> Oh, it's it's the third Thursday of the month, but the date changes. Duncan, you see uh PTA's new masterpiece yet? >> I haven't. I watch. >> Anybody? >> I'm going this weekend. >> Was it good? >> Not yet. >> You liked it? >> I love it. >> It's a good movie, obviously. I mean, there's It's hard to deny it wasn't a good movie, but what the is wrong with people? >> PTA has brainwormed people. Like, he's tricking all you guys. It's not the best movie of the last decade. >> I don't think >> it's not even close. People are going nuts. >> Say that anytime there's a >> No. One battle after another. People are going nuts. >> It was a good movie. >> Not everyone not everyone agrees that it was even good. I had a good time. Some negative comments about it. >> But it's it's it's 14 hours long. There's some really great stuff in there, but people are like legitimately there's people saying it's one of the best movies of the last decade. >> What? >> I did hear a lot of great things before it came out, but I It's a good movie. >> I really loved it. So, I loved it as a movie going experience. I saw it on Giant Iron. >> It's a good movie. But I would not even say it's in his top three. >> Yeah. >> Like the director. And it's definitely not a top three. It had its moments. It's But it's so long and I just I don't get the PTA fever. >> My kids saw Gabby's Dollhouse on Monday and they're raving about it. >> I never heard of that. >> What is that? >> It's a kids cartoon. >> Should Michael watch that? >> I think my kids see movies all the time, but it's been a minute. We haven't There hasn't been a good movie for kids. >> Well, you wouldn't take your kids to that movie either. >> No, I got eight, six, and four. >> You have three girls? >> Three girls. >> 8, six, and four. Oh, man. You're in it. >> You're like in it. In it. >> In it. Are you in the BBS or in the set of >> Yeah, BBS? >> Yeah. Glenn Ellen, west west suburbs of Chicago. I was telling Josh it's like right next to Weaten and Weaten's like this quiet financial hub that not many people realize. >> You know, I asked about Weeden this morning because we had somebody reach out from Weeden who's I said how far is it from the city? But it's apparent it's a little bit too far >> with no no traffic. It's 35, but you know in a traffic Yeah. an hour, you know, could be with no traffic is >> the traffic is so big in the morning. You mean? >> Yeah. Yeah. Well, I mean, hey, in the commodity space, I'm getting down to the office and if I'm heading down there, I catch the 4:50 a.m. train. So, if I'm ever driving, >> are you in the gym at 3:00? You psycho >> before. >> I hit that at 5 a.m. 5:30. >> I won't get in the car in Chicago anymore. I just did the Blue Line. >> Yeah, >> it's I'm I'm never doing that again. It's >> Blue Line. That's where we came from. The name >> I lived I live when my first house I bought in the city. >> Oh, is that what it's named for? >> Duh. Right. >> Down the street from the Blue Line. And then you take the Blue Line and you get off in Jackson, which is next to the Board of Trade. And that's where our office is. >> What's the best Italian restaurant in in Chicago in the city? Don't tell me about a place in uh the suburbs that I won't go to. >> Okay. Old school. I I love taking the team to Lascarola. And that's right off the Blue Line and West um you know, off Grand Street. Really good. >> What neighborhood is that? I know some of the neighborhoods, not all of them. >> It's uh called Westtown River North. >> I know River North. >> Yeah. And then if you're going like newer age, Monta Verde is phenomenal. >> Okay. I haven't been to either of these places. Um, what's the be? So, I took Michael to Gibson's just because obligatory. Um, >> took me. I feel What was that? Your date? We went together. >> But I had been there before you, so I took you. You see how that works? >> Yeah. >> Okay. Took Michael the Gibson's. >> We had great lunch there. >> It was great. We I mean, we didn't like >> Which one though? Downtown or did you do the >> No, the Magnificent Mile one. >> Okay. >> Like the the one that's by all the fancy [ __ ] >> Yeah, the uh Rush in Division. >> And I've been to Joe's Stone Crab for steak. Do they call it They call what do they call it? Joe's. >> Yeah, >> that was great. >> Good. >> Um, and I've been to RPG steak. >> RPM. >> RPM steak. >> That's where my >> Wait, what's the RPG? Rocket propelled grenade. >> Why is it called RPM? >> You know, I wish I knew, but it's Bill Ransick and Juliana Rancic. And so when I think if I got this right when he won the um the Trump show um what you call it back in the day the first one >> the apprentice. >> The apprentice he designed that the the Trump Tower and they and they had connection to Chicago and and did the RPM Italian and then the >> Oh, that's where I ate. I didn't eat steak one. I ate at the Italian one. Yeah. What's the one? >> What's the one that sits like right over the river in like a glass cube? >> That's RPM seafood now. >> Oh >> yeah, they have a third one. >> Whatever. I liked it. some money RPS. >> But no, I we always do our our holiday party and uh at RPM steak. I love the place. >> But all right, but so if somebody's like, I'm going to be in Chicago one night and I want to have a great steak, where do you send them? >> RPM steak or Gib the Gibson, the new Gibson's Gibson's Italia, which is which is uh in downtown like the business area, the loop just right outside the loop. >> I like Italian steakous that that subgenre. They just reopened Pietro here in New York, which is one of the most famous, maybe the earliest version um in Austin. You ever been to uh Red Ash? >> No. >> It's like Italian steakhouse. >> Okay. >> Flames. >> Good. >> Um I I like that kind of thing. So that's what you would do. >> Gibson's Italian. >> Yeah. I love the Elmolino Prime. Told you I always I always go there. >> Can't Elmo. You can't go wrong. Yeah. El Molino Prime. The steak. >> Yeah. Yeah. So I I get the steak in a little bit side. I'm getting all fired up over this. It's almost too much for me. All right. >> How we doing, boys? Think >> we're looking good. >> All right. This is an important man >> coming in. >> All right. [Applause] [Music] [Applause] [Music] Today's show is sponsored by State Street Investment Management and SPY, the first USlisted exchange traded fund. With SPY, investors gain liquid and costefficient exposure to the S&P 500 index. You can't predict your future, but State Street Investment Management can help you create it. Getting there starts here. Access the power of the S&P 500 in a single trade with SPY. Visit statereet.com/spy for more information. Before investing, consider the fund's investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Visit statesreet.com/im for a perspectus containing this and other information. Read it carefully. SPY is subject to risks similar to those of stocks. All ETFs are subject to risk, including possible loss of principle. ALPS distributors, Inc. distributor. What is it? 213. All right, ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Compound and Friends, the world's best investing podcast. It's not even close. You're listening, you already know this. Hey, we have a first time guest with us. Michael and I are so excited to chat with this uh young man, young gentleman. Bill Baroo is the founder and CIO of both Blue Line Capital and investment adviser and Blue Creek Capital Management, a commodity trading adviser located in Chicago, Illinois. Bill has extensive experience in the financial industry as an adviser, trader, and manager. He began his career as an All right, who wrote this? This is way too much already. We're already at the Is this you? You wrote this. I >> I just dropped it in. Bill wrote it. >> I dropped it in there. >> All right. You've done many things. Um >> you were a male model. >> Yeah, exactly. >> Uh you were at a firm that was bought by MF Global. Yeah. >> How long did that last? How long were you there for? >> I think it was three or four years before it blew up. >> You ever meet Cororsine? >> I never met Corsine. But I will tell you, they they went public and the stock never went higher. It was the I think the high was the day went public. They threw this massive party. This is 2010. >> I want to say 2008 when they bought it. >> Oh, >> no. When did it go public? I'm trying to remember. >> When Oh, MF Global went I think public in '08 09. Okay. >> Yeah. And when that went public, they threw this big massive party at the opera house. That was that was that was the high. And then you they start start buying stock for the company too. They force you to buy stock and never never up on it. >> Yeah. Uh what a what a what an unbelievable situation. That's one of the largest blowups ever. >> What were you doing there? >> Eighth biggest bank. >> What did you do wrong there? >> Yeah. Right. Um, no. I I was at I was at a trade desk and uh I learned a lot there. It was it was there was really good people in our our division and we had obviously nothing to do with what Cororesign was doing, but that was back in the day at uh you know order flow had to go through the floor or your people were calling you calling it in. It's like >> this is uh this is the CME. >> Yeah, the CME. So you're calling NAX, you're calling the board of trade, you're calling the CME and there was some stuff electronic still but options all obviously going straight to the floor. And so we, you know, we had a lot of metals traders at our desk and we actually there was there was people that that were trading the the NASDAQ bubble that moved on to the metals because that was the last big bull market in silver. We hit 50 in 2011. So you're watching a lot of people order flow. I was able to learn a lot what works, what doesn't work, saw saw people blow up, had saw people, you know, make a lot of money and um, you know, learn little things in the business and had a good mentor and it was it was a great experience. your commodities experience help you um help you better understand like supply, demand, fear, and greed as when it pertains to stocks? I would imagine that it would. Oh, >> absolutely. >> It's all the same [ __ ] It's all the same people. >> Yeah, >> it's like the same people issues like the way we buy, the way we sell, what drives people to make decisions. I feel like it's not that different. >> It it is. The only difference I think with with the equity markets is is like the flows that have to go into the equity markets compared to the commodities. That's a great point. Yeah. you're not you're not getting those flows. So, you know, commodities there is like some elasticity that has to kind of come back in. I mean, right now you're not seeing it in like silver and gold, but that's always the fear is like when when does that supply come out? Is is who who has silver that is going to start selling or whatever commodity it might be that that's that's moving. Is it wheat or or is it crude oil? You know, I I remember the days in 2010, crude oil went to $150 and so weird. It was a brokerage shop, MF Global. You're opening accounts day after day. Everybody's calling people are are you know taking home equity lines out to to buy crude oil at the time you you know that's that was like the top that was all high in crude oil >> but not right and that aspect of it not so different from what you see with tech stocks like at the top of a tech bubble >> um I have this theory I never wrote about it uh where >> I feel like the stock market in the 70s was a commodities market >> because you did because to your point you didn't have that persistent an inflow coming in every two weeks with 401k money and asset allocation money. It was stocks were treated like commodities and they were way more volatile and the characteristics of the stock market then looked more like a commodity market and today they don't at all. >> Yeah. Much more cyclical names leading I mean who were the large Exxon, AT&T, GE when was Kodak? Was that the 80s? But yeah, that was I mean the the names completely different than the makeup of of the largest. >> I think people the way people thought about stocks back then, they thought about them similarly to the way they think about speculating in commodities. Um 50 years later and market has gone mostly up and we have the advent of the 401k and now I just think people think differently about they look at it more like a place to stash away savings rather than just to trade. They do both now. >> Proven results. I mean after especially after uh you know the 2000 I mean you've seen what is it I mean 10 15% average annual returns. So people they they know they're missing something if they're not invested. It's proof and and it's >> the only guy saying buy and hold in the 70s was Jack Bogle. >> Yeah. >> Now everybody says buy and hold. That's very different. >> After you blew up MF Global, what did you do next? >> Um you know I I I left and worked at a so I I wanted to I never wanted to work for you know a big shop ever again after that happened. It was a bad experience. um you know seeing that play out and so I I started with a a firm with another gentleman and um and you know we I end up starting my own firm Blue Line Futures in 2017 and 2017 um one of my partners Oliver Slope uh and I got together and we wanted to uh put out good con consistent research for clients and kind of take that brokerage move to the uh getting that content out. I was doing videos every day talking about the S&P and trading ranges. We're putting out daily research that daily that has grown. Um you we put out a lot of content with our >> You're very good at the videos, the walking videos. You're like the only one that could actually pull that off. Most people look ridiculous. >> You're good at it. >> Thank you. Back in the day, it used to be I just stood in front of a like a a wall a wall drop and and did it in the office. >> The walking is better. >> The walking is better. It's more casual. Keeps it tighter. Um but yeah, we but as a company, Blue Line Futures, we put out a ton of content. You know, I still write a note every day that covers the S&P levels, the trade. Uh Phil Streel, who's here listening, he he puts out metals research every day about >> Yeah. Shout out to Phil. Phil's uh in studio. He's not really listening to you. He's he's on his phone, so he's already heard enough from you today. >> Yeah, we got a lot of agriculture content that goes out, but a lot a lot of the just across the board. >> Okay, awesome. Love it. I want to uh I want to start with uh I want to start with the private credit stuff that seems to have infected the rest of the stock market today. It's been a while since we've had one of these financial market driven riskoff days. >> I'm not saying it's good, but it's sort of refreshing. >> It's a It's a It's a change from the relentless monotony of AI stocks being up 2% every single day. >> It's been boring. >> It's Yeah, I mean, a lot of money has been made, but now it seems like we're in a new phase. People are really paying attention to this stuff. What do you think? Yeah, I mean you're you're getting getting some two-sided volatility um after after Friday's tweet and it's you're starting to see it play out. And again, I think it's that old cliche saying when the when the shore, you know, comes in, you know, who's not wearing shorts and and I think you get that volatility happening and you you start seeing some some of that stuff show up. >> On Tuesday, >> where where are the cockroaches? That's all that's all that's all I want to know. >> On Tuesday, Josh and I were talking about financials and it's what you see in a healthy bull market. You saw Black Rockck hit an all-time high. You saw JP Morgan, not quite, but great earnings. Uh, Goldman, just solid numbers. Um, but what we didn't do on the Tuesday show was divide or normalize like what's it doing relative to the S&P. >> And actually, if we did do that, and especially on a day like today, the XLF divided by the SPY is breaking down like hard >> like pretty disgusting. This is >> That's not That's not great. What time What time is that chart? >> This is daily. >> Okay. Wow. >> That's Dude, that's ugly. Yeah. So, it's down 2.7% today. S&P is down 70 basis points. Like, this is not good. >> Yeah, >> I would say definitely not good. Um, and it's been about three, four weeks. Some of the big names, the big the big moneysitter banks, Goldman Sachs, they put a high in and they Yeah, they they jumped up a little bit after report. The banks always jump up a little bit after the report when it's a good report, but it's it's it's where they are a week later is what I always like to think about it because you get that excitement of the report and then it comes in, you know, usually the next two or three days. So, I think the the next few trading days are going to be critical for what that sector. >> Well, this one is sell the news clearly, right? Let me read this to you. This is Bloomberg. A pair of blowups. Oh, on Wall Street, everyone's a friendly rival until the losses start. A pair of blowups in the credit market have sparked a war of words over whether banks or private credit firms are better positioned to weather a broader downturn. So Jamie Diamond said there's never one cockroach famously now it's been repeated eight zillion times. Uh Mark Lipshultz from uh Blue Owl Capital fired back saying the issue was in loans that banks led so Diamond should be scouring his own books if he wants to squash more bugs. He did that on TV. I saw that he uh he's he sort of a badass. He's got like a little Jason Stathithm thing going on. This dude, right? >> Uh >> he came on TV with no tie like I'm not a banker. What >> I do like I do respect >> and he's like no you're a [ __ ] cockroach. >> I respect the horseshoe look. This guy's got the the castanza bald but like growing out on the sides. I respect I should >> He's not cro he's not he's not cropping it. He's >> not a phrase like Yeah, I'm bald with hair on the sides. So what? >> What are you going to do about it? >> Billionaire. Uh, what do you make of this stuff? Is it just noise or is it noise that potentially could lead to something? >> I think it can lead to something, but it's it's more more seismic. Would I think it would have to get deeper? I I got a good stat. I I when my my research guy here, um, shout out Dan White. He 19,000 private equity funds and there's 14,000 McDonald's locations. There's more private equity funds. >> And, uh, you know, so a lot of people are jumping in with little experience. So I I think when you get that it's you know I think it could become bigger. >> So my my take is for now and I I said this last week I'll say it again. I'm obviously a tourist >> very complacent >> a tourist here. It's not nothing. >> It's not nothing but the question is like is it really something >> and of course we will know with the passage of time that stat I it just smells a little shitty like I I need it to be normalized a little bit. It sounds very odd. >> There's 19,000 funds. How many firms are there? How many of those funds are $4 million? Like I think the point the point but the point is valid is that there is a lot of activity. >> Yeah. >> In private markets obviously. >> But the implication of that stat is to me what's important. If there are n let's say there were 19,000 funds that's too many all chasing the same opportunity. The question is if if how many of those funds can you get your money out of if you could and then if and if you could who goes to the exit? >> There's no liquidity in these funds. Exactly. And that's the point. >> That's the point. >> But but to me, you look at that number of funds and you just picture the competition to write loans cuz if you raise money, you want to make loans. If everyone else has raised money also, which is the case, it's trillions of dollars and they all want to make loans, what happens? Will you start cutting some corners? We'll do it faster than the other guys. Okay, great. We'll do it with less covenants, less protection. Okay, that sounds great, too. We'll do like all of a sudden you and I'm not saying that's definitely what happened. That's what people are worried about is what happened. >> But this this story is fraud allegedly it looks like. But you can >> Well, which one? Now we're on to >> Now we're on to five different isolated incidents. >> So hold on. It's first brandic color. Is that what else? Have you not seen what uh Zion's Bank is saying and Western Alliance is saying? >> I was not on the news today. What happened? >> They are regionals getting >> writing off they are writing off loans and suing people saying that uh fraud has happened and that's why the regional is getting crushed. >> So here's what we know. We know that the market is not going to underreact, >> right, to any negative news. It's going to overreact. Um may maybe or maybe not. Maybe it is underreact and we'll find out. With that stat though, you could also say all right well there's 26,000 mutual funds and 14,000 ETFs. are making up those numbers and there's too much money and yeah, maybe that's sort of the the whole point of all of this is that there is too much money. There's too much money chasing too few assets, valuations are high, the prices the prices of everything is high. There's a lot of money in the system. >> Well, I go back to Josh's point, too, where you have this number of funds. I mean, maybe you don't know the size of each one, but that the money's coming in, the money has to be going somewhere. It has to be used, which forces poor investment decisions, and and I think that's where the problems happen. >> They can't sit on cash. >> Yeah. That's not that's not the type of business that they're in. They're in the business of allocating the money so that they have the ability to bill on it. And uh you will do things if you need to bill. What do we got here? >> That was Kobe. He showed me you got 100 on his test. >> Oh, that's so cute. Uh was his test on private credit? >> Cuz if not, >> it was senior secured. >> Give me this chart. Gota. >> So, I was talking to I was talking to Cali today in our research channel and Cali watches like all the spreads and um thought this was interesting. We were saying like there's no there's no spike in in credit spreads in junk versus investment grade or junk versus treasury. But interestingly, this is triple C versus double B spreads. So, the junkiest junk versus the quote unquote highest quality junk. And here's something starting to It's nothing. It's not crazy, but it's also not zero. I don't know. I I look at the regional banks, business development corporations, look at uh the junkiest junk, and I just say like maybe the market's overreacting, but how could we be so sure? >> Well, the other thing to add is on the regional banks. Are they loosening their lending standards in order to win these private credit deals? And is that going to come back to haunt them? >> Probably some yes, some no. >> Yeah. >> Right. and we'll we're all gonna find out. >> We're gonna find out together. Anyway, uh >> we don't know [ __ ] about this. Let's talk about the stock market. >> I think it's I think it's I think it's notable because other people are are reacting. I don't think it's notable because the the whole world's on fire. I want to ask you about the metals world. So, the best performing industry group in the stock market this year, metals and mining, up almost 100%, which is insane for an industry group of stocks. That means some of them are up way more than that. Are you like blown away by this? We've never seen this before. >> I mean, I I am I am You can't not be surprised at the velocity. >> Gold is up 60% on the year. >> Well, the the velocity of the move that's taken place just over the last 3 to 6 weeks is is absurd. I mean, it's in a good way. It that's got to be a little surprising for anybody. But I mean, you go back to the turn of the year and you start seeing what was bubbling up in gold and and we get to 3000 and and you see Trump policies and you see the ddollarization um you see the central bank buying consistently central bank buying uh and uh Basil 3, you know, which actually took effect in July of 2025. So it's now officially a tier one asset on central bank balance sheets. So you look at that. I mean our thesis was gold's going to go to 5,000. We just didn't think that this is going to happen this Christmas. >> You think it would happen by Christmas? >> Yeah. Okay, that seems to be the trajectory that we're on. >> Yeah, >> there no one's selling. >> Well, there well there is no reason to sell. I mean, the most of the buying is coming from central banks and they're putting on their balance sheet and it's a move away from the dollar and there's there's, you know, we think there's proof that that China has understated their their gold reserves by 20%. >> You think they're quietly accumulating? >> Oh, yeah. Certainly. Okay. >> And so I I I think if gold and I've sat I've sat down with with a CEO in in the gold mining space and he asked me, "Bill, what would make this what what would what would ruin this? What what could make it go down? >> What would ruin this uptrend in gold?" >> Yeah. And and I and I I I said at the end of the day, I I don't know what would because the massive selling that would take this away would have to come from central banks and they're not selling. What we could get though, I mean, we could certainly get a 10% this at the time gold was at 3500 to 3,700 or so. is just breaking out and yeah we get a 10% move you know probably if just deleveraging maybe at this point it could be a 20% move deleveraging >> I was going to tell you the only thing that ruins this is a global recession where these central banks are forced to sell gold in order to do stimulus in their own countries because that is literally what ended the gold bull market in 2011 European sovereigns Asians or they all so like >> but how does that change if it's a tier one asset now on their balance sheet it is as good as cash. Yes. But if you need the money, you need the money. Yeah. >> The other thing that could end it is if people get too excited about gold. >> Yeah. >> Like big leverage coming in on the long side. I don't know. Phil Phillip probably has like better better guesses than I do, but like it it eventually does end, but it doesn't have to end for 10 years. Like there's no >> it could be a big cycle here right now. >> It could be a big deal, right? >> It definitely and I and I I think what could end I mean there obviously be a number of things and you you look back even co and I remember that it was like the first week of March whenever that Monday coming out of the oil Saudi Arabia and Russia oil news and oil's down 10 bucks gold made a high that morning but then within weeks and in the co shutdowns it was I think 300 bucks I think it was 1,700 to 1400 and so gold really sniffs out inflation and it doesn't may it may not react how you would expect during the inflation like in 2022 Fed's hiking rates The dollar is strengthening. Gold was whacked, but it smells inflation. So, so it's going to it's going to see it and it's going to react prior to the inflation. So, I would say what we're seeing right now potentially could be more inflation, but then you're also getting the GDPs of of Germany and Japan and things like that. That's why the dollar is actually rising in and over this last week, last couple of weeks when gold's been breaking out, which is a pretty interesting phenomena. >> That's rare. Yeah. Um, I wanted to ask you why is silver rallying so hard? And then I'll ask you the same on copper. What's what's happening there? >> What's borrowing rates, lease rates? You can't get the physical silver and they're trying. >> So, explain. We don't have like a hardcore commodity trading audience. Explain what you mean by that. >> Well, I guess the best way to put it would be um lease rates. So, so in order to move silver around, it's uh it c in order to get the physical silver, you can't you can't move it from spot to spot uh in order to get it to London. And in order to and there's lease rates that in order for borrowing costs, they're surging because you can't get the physical silver. So >> why do what who needs the physical silver? >> Uh in order, you know, it's in order for processing, industrial reuses and and then you're also getting demand for buying. I mean, more than 50% of the use of silver now is industrial use. >> I thought you were going to say Jared. >> Yeah. >> Okay. >> Well, I thought you I thought you were going to say teenage boys in Masipua. All right. Go on. >> Yeah. I mean, so I I think it was a little unique that China went into its autumn festival um two weeks ago and and you know, they they are a supplier of silver. They're not exporting necessarily. That could that could be a driver. If they decide to export silver, put it down. But um you know, there was a there was definitely an alignment with those lease rates surged. It costs more money to get your hands on silver, but I guess best way to put it uh around the time of the autumn fest festival. >> There's a scare there's a scarcity >> scarcity of silver for sure. and tons of demand because silver typically rallies with gold but has higher beta usually follows gold more. Yeah, usually follows gold too. So it's this has been sort of bubbling under the surface and I think once it got above $40 there's always the conspiracy theories that the banks are selling silver selling paper silver against the physical things like that. But I think once it got above 40, uh, the the ceiling was lifted and and I think it it changed the dynamic of >> silver just made its first inflation adjusted high since the Hunt brothers failed attempt to corner the silver market in 1980. I thought that was remarkable. Like what a moment. >> Just to let you guys know, it's the physical back ETFs over in London. Those are the ones that need to secure the silver. So as they get more investors in those ETFs, the demand that they the amount they got to show investment demand turning into physical demand. >> Yes. >> Wow. Duncan, I'm impressed. >> That that of course was uh Paul Tudtor Jones. Thank you so much for being here, PTJ. Uh we we appreciate that. Um how how do you play the upside in the metals? I know because I know you're you're both commodities and futures guy, but then I know you own pneumont and you're involved in the mining stocks too. >> Yeah. So, let's start with the futures. I mean, it's I mean the interesting the CME group has done a really great job of making micro contracts over the years. So, um because futures trading is of notional value and you know, so the the main contract of silver is a 5,000 ounce contract of silver, you know. So, at 20 bucks it was a $100,000 contract. Now, at 40 bucks, it's a $200,000 contract. At 60, you know, so you know, it get you get it. The the actual the value of the contract's larger. So, you're the the volatility you're withstanding is is larger. >> Oh, in dollar terms, the swings are huge. >> Yeah, they're huge. So, now there's a micro contract that's been around for for a few years now, and it's a thous contract of silver. >> Even at that point, you got the thousand ounce contract of silver now is is what is the notional value of what silver was. I mean, so options volatility has has surged. you know, one of the ways I mean, again, we've we were invested and and I run a a metals called Metals Alpha. It's a CTA. It's it's a it's investable program. Um, we I mean, we've been in this pressing the gas on this most of the year. And right now, we've lifted off the gas because the volatility we are we run our strategy with looking at the average true range and and the ranges have just been massive. So, we >> the longer the rally continues, the larger that ATR becomes, which raises your potential risk for when it reverses. Do you think this is a blowoff top? It's It's going vertical. >> I mean, I think we go to 70. I mean, we can we could I mean, there's calls for 100. I think it was Bank of America. So, >> what's that on silver? >> Yeah, silver. Yeah. So, we we put on when we got out of the the futures and we're just kind of we we are tiptoeing in the futures because the ranges are $2 to $4 a day. Um and we don't want we don't want to get caught in a big downdraft if it does happen. And um we you know, call options. We did some call spreads a couple month about a month ago like out to January 6575 call spreads. the diagonal caterpillar box. >> But no, something simple that that we could capture if it does have that >> why a call spread >> because if it has that bananas move where it just goes up5 to $10 over over what it has been if it keeps this pace up, we're able to capitalize on it and know what our risk is to be invested in it. >> Oh, so you can you can put yourself in a you could put yourself in a box >> and and get the upside but not be fully exposed. >> Yeah. 10 a $10 wide spread 6575 goes out to expiration end of December and you know initially we're buying those from 10 to 20 cents. >> Who else is doing that trade along with you? You seeing a lot of like funds doing that? I >> mean I think a lot of funds may use options to manage the risks in this type of environment that that's where my expectation would be. So and we're managing you know we we look to protect our downside as well. So we're doing different proprietary strategies managing delta and tail risks. Now, is it uh true that only silver can kill a werewolf? >> That in a what is it? A uh >> or vampire. Vampire is a wooden steak. Yeah. >> All right. I want to ask you about copper. >> What the hell is that about now? That's its own that's like that's its own thing that's going on. >> People are shocked by this >> that it's lagging. >> Yeah. Well, just like wait, I don't understand. The rest of the world's stocks are outperforming the S&P 500. China's stock market's up 38% this year. Why? Like why are gold and silver rallying this hard and copper is not reacting to better than expected everything overseas like it normally does? Well, copper was up over five and a half. And if you remember, it was like the July 30th Fed meeting. And that was when Trump was really going after Powell a lot. And so, right when that Fed meeting was dropped, uh, the White House announced that they they the copper tariffs, but they're exempting the cathode and the cathode goes in that in the in the refining process to to make the copper. And so, so that would that actually copper fell historically 20% that day. Yeah. So it really hasn't I mean there's a lot of damage in the chart but um you know and then and then most recently like yesterday you're hearing about more exports from from China and they're going to ramp up their ramp up their copper. >> You just don't have the same scarcity profile with with copper that you >> and and I think I think you will over time but when you have a 20% drop the way it did there's a lot of damage to that chart. even somebody like myself that's that wants to invest in it like I've only tiptoed in it because you know it's it just feels like there's a lot of damage to the upside and and it and it's going to it's going to you know a lot of dead bodies overhead you know look at it that way there's a lot of supply technically overhead so I think it has to chew through that I mean if the metals in in general keep going higher I think copper is going to have to join the party but physically I mean you look at the data center investments you're looking at other things that are going on here the infrastructure spending that's going on here in the US or around the world the the you know emerging market economies take, you know, they're stepping their game up and investing in their economies. Um, copper's is is on and going to continue to be on high demand, but the you're not really getting that growth out of China either as that demand I think just this early in the week it was uh negative CPI number again, surprisingly in China. So, you're not getting that growth. Uh, and that's been a headwind as well for for copper. >> You still like gold and silver here. >> Am I putting new positions on in gold and silver here? You're letting it ride, but you're not pressing you're not pressing the bet. >> Yeah. Rolling up rolling up some stops. And uh but I mean in the in our metals, you know, our mining alpha portfolio that you mentioned, we own Numont, we own Core, we own Bareric, we no more than 10 names is kind is the idea in that portfolio. It's concentrated. You know, we launched that portfolio in July. And I mean, and they were already up, you know, half only half as much as they are now, but which was already a lot at that time of the year. We couldn't we didn't have time to get all that cash to work. And >> I was going to say you like they're not letting anyone in. Yeah. So, we got we got about twothirds of the cash to work and and so any pullbacks we want to be we would do want to be buying. Do >> do are you telling people that you intend to hold those forever like be invested forever or would you say to the people look this is a gold bull market and it's in a one for the record? It's an amazing one but if it ends we don't want to own these these companies. >> Well, if you look at it >> they're not good companies. They never have been. >> Well, there's I mean right now there's going to be tons of free cash flow free cash flows and and doesn't last and and Yeah. And but then what the phenomenon here is is you have you have gold prices higher and you have input cost energy and that that they have to purchase and use lower oil prices are lower and so that that's a tailwind to the business. I think that's something that that makes it a longer cycle and I think we could be you know a year and a half into what could be a 5year cycle. >> Just wait till the copper miners discover quantum computing and then boom just easy extract the copper off and running. You haven't really thought about AI in the gold market yet. Um, what what's this purple chart? What are we doing here? >> Um, what we're doing here is we're talking stocks. >> All right, let's go. What do you got? >> All right, Vanda, uh, has some great data showing retail activity in the stock market. And what they're showing is that uh, the highest amount of one day inflows was last Friday. >> Wait, where is that, >> Josh? This is called a a chart. >> I see. >> And the black line is the stocks and the purple line is the buy in the very bars. >> Yeah, there you go. You got it. You get it. >> Wait, but we went down. >> They bought. >> Okay. So, he's new here. >> So, the stock market went down on lot on Friday and retail buyers went all the way in >> and it worked and it already worked until today. >> Uh, so let's let's talk about the stock market. uh chart Matt did this thing for us when the S&P is up 7.8% 8% drawing the line to make it work. I suppose um going into the fourth quarter the average return for Q4 is 7.7%. And in fact going back to 1950 there's never been a down quarter when the market is up this much going to three quarters. Now N equals I don't know enough 15 or so thoughts. >> Well I I think one of one of the tailwinds to a fourth quarter rally is the seasonality that you get in August and September. and we never pulled back in August, August and September. So, you know, if you start October lower, yeah, it's easier to finish higher. I I do think we're going to have a strong finish the year and I think I think the Mag 7 can really can really uh I mean, some of those names are, you know, not done much this year and I I expect strong earnings reports and I think they're going to be a leader to finish out quarter 4. But, you know, the the tough thing is, you know, it would be, you know, we're seeing a lot of volatility right now. The VIX is above 20. It's a 24 25 here today and that leads to further volatility. I'm surprised we haven't seen more downside this week and we may. So there's going to be a little bit of a of a you know rebuild a little bit potentially but at the same time every time this market is sold off it it hasn't been down for more than one day or two days. So I think it's going to we're in this little vacuum of there's there's no there's no government data. Um there's you know we're waiting on earnings and and there you know no one everybody's kind >> earnings start next week. >> Yeah, we're waiting. No one's blinking yet. So, >> we sort of need it. We sort of need a Microsoft report to to get us to stop looking at regional bank uh charge offs. >> How much more did they spend on on AI, right? >> Yeah. I'm I'm going to guess I'm going to guess a lot more. Um >> this is a good one. We could we could skip the the next seasonal one. Uh the the bottom line is absent some news that knocks us off course and maybe it's the cockroaches, the managers are going to chase, right? The people that are underinvested chasing t just it happens every year. Uh this is some good stuff from Warren Pies. So we are in a I guess a blackout period where companies cannot purchase their own stock. So Warren Pies has a chart that shows the typical annual cycle for S&P 500 buyback volume. And of course there are blackout periods and we're in one right now. But the >> well they have to report earnings and then they it's came back on. >> But what he's showing is that once the buying picks back up, he breaks it down statistically. you do see pretty significant uh positive returns for the S&P 500 companies. >> Oh, it's it's noticeable stock, right? Stocks stocks have a better period of time during the buyback phase. >> I mean, it's obvious, but but the point is we're coming up to >> continuing bid. >> I like I like that idea. We Nobody's like really talking about buybacks anymore. I don't know if we're making a record this year or not. >> You know why? because it's it's AI is just talking the oxygen. That's all anybody wants to >> and every earnings report they're talking about raising their buybacks too. So there they the buybacks are there for sure. >> Yeah. >> So Bill, does this make you nervous? Um we are obviously in a retailers having a moment. You could call it a mania. Some of the returns at some of their favorite stocks, quantum computing, nuclear, uranium, just scary, >> all that [ __ ] Um, so Trading Thomas 3 on Twitter shared that retail has been buying calls for 24 consecutive weeks, which reached a record high last week. I mean, there's just no chill. >> You know, I I think there's certainly and that's what's made me nervous this summer a little bit. I thought we'd get that seasonal pullback and and you know, I love I love what we were able to accomplish in our portfolio into July and August and so it made sense for us, you know, to to trim a little bit and kind of wait and watch a couple rounds, have some flexibility, and the situation hasn't deteriorated at all. And I mean, >> September just kept going, >> kept going. And so I I think that's that's the interesting thing. You get this these retail flows that keep that keep pushing it higher. But at the same time, I mean, you look at with you buy that many those calls. I mean there's the put call ratio has has hit a level that it it it does cap the upside returns in the near term. So I think that's something that you know what we're going through this week it could be timely and I don't think I don't think it's going to be seismic. I don't think it's like a I mean you even go back to March of 23 when the when these literally banks were were not the doors were closed and shut down the next day. Um we we AI rallied us out of that and and Kaisha Kaisha crazy question. I don't even understand where people are getting the money to do this. >> Look at this chart. So, put >> Can we go Can we go back to that though? >> No, look at this. Look at this. >> What is this? >> This is showing mega cap tech. So, for all the talk of like we're in a bubble, um the mega cap tech are significantly underperforming the crazy names. So, it's mega cap tech divided by nonprofitable tech. And if you invert this, it is the ratio here is wild. Mega cap tech is no longer exciting enough to attract retail trading. >> These things are going sideways a lot of them in the mega cap tech. >> That's the frothiness. That's >> they want that oak. >> Yeah, that's the stuff they want. Makes me nervous. >> But where So put this chart back up. The retail options trading. What is this like out of people'sing paychecks? What are what are what are they doing? What are the dollar amounts involved in this? >> You know what really got >> cuz how do you keep losing unless they keep losing money? the retail call buyers. They're crushing it. And you know what? And you know what really got it going? And I I know from talking to people firsthand. I was a little bit in the first one. I haven't done much more after that, but Eric Jackson on the open call >> and I think that was the big start. >> That was the spark. You're right. >> That was a spark. And we've seen a number. He's had a couple other calls since then, but that's what really got people super. >> He came out He came out this with the stock at a dollar. Said it's going to $80. It did go to 10. Yeah. I don't know where it is now. >> Looks pretty vulnerable. It's at 7-Eleven. >> Yeah. Don't try charting. Don't try to six. No, I know. It'll be It could be a 15 next year. >> He might get Drake to buy uh to to buy a million dollars worth of stock. It'll go to 50. >> You really You don't really don't want to chart that. >> Uh I agree with you. That seemed like it was a moment. >> Yeah. >> And then ever since people are just like, "What's the craziest thing I could do?" >> Yeah. It's like what what am I buying today to make money? It's like an assumption that you're going to make money today if you just open. >> But the but that's such a good point. Where's the money coming from? Because it's not it's not only retail and it's not only options. So last week, Bank of America showed that single stock inflows were the fifth largest in history. So single stocks um and the biggest ever for a week that the market was down at least 1%. >> I mean the firepower >> is endless that like they don't react negatively to headlines anymore really. The dips are bought the same day. They don't even wait a day. >> Well, somebody had a great take on Ollo and you could use this for a lot of these companies. There's no exposure. there's no revenue. Uh they're not sensitive to interest. It's just whatever. There's there's nothing tethering it to fundamentals. >> I mean, a lot of these names, I mean, they're they're unprofitable. They're not making money. I mean, it's a story. They're equity financed. They're not subject to uh borrowing rates. >> A lot of tech always is. It's not it's not what you're doing for me now. It's what you're going to do for me in the future. And this is really extending that narrative and saying, and it's pulling that cash in there. You're buying a story. I mean, you've you these are a lot of people, I'm sure, people that have made money in Bitcoin, people have made money in in other things, and they're moving that money around, but they've made money hodling. They made money doing things. And I'm not I'm not dogging at all. Making money is not dumb. I making money is not dumb. >> They're they're I mean, these people are they're doing their thing, man. >> I'm sure that there will be I'm Listen, this it is a mania. A lot of these these are pre-revenue names. I would guess that there's going to be a handful of winners over the long term. Yeah, >> maybe maybe at lower valuations, but a lot of these are going to just the companies though are not stupid. They're all selling equity. They're all doing secondary. >> Allegedly, the CEO of one of these companies, I don't know if it's Olla or Ionic. I don't want to I forget which one it was. Allegedly like sold all of us stock. >> Really? I mean, we're getting and we've gotten multiple calls into us at Blank Capital like clients like, "Why can't you buy this name in my portfolio?" Like, listen, I mean, the music's going to stop at some point. It's going to be done. as a fiduciary, we can't we we can't do that. >> Why don't we own this piece of [ __ ] that everyone else just made uh 400% on? >> Yeah. So, those are the conversations that my some of my team has had, some have come to me, and it's I mean, not I'm not talking dozens, but maybe you know nearly. >> It's hard. You have to just send them a link to uh you have to send them a link to Robin Hood, tell them download the app, do whatever you want. We're not doing that. >> But let's just bring it back to because I I really think it's important that people that are listening don't hear us talking about this pocket of media, which which it is. and say, "Oh, the whole thing's a bubble. The whole thing's a house cards." Because it's important that we zoom out. Yeah. >> So, Yuri Timmer has a great chart that shows the good news is that the earnings are doing the heavy lifting as we enter year four of this bull market. The PE ratio is only up 1% year-over-year while earnings are up 11%. That is critically important. The PE is only up, this is for the S&P, I'm guessing, only 1% year-over-year. So, all of this expansion that we've seen, it's earnings. So it is fundamentals, companies are growing, margins are at all-time highs. Like there is good reason why stocks are going up despite a lot of the nonsense. >> Nvidia is underperforming its earnings growth. >> We we see Nvidia as as almost relative to other pockets in tech of value by there's some great names out there. >> It's wild, but it is it is that way. >> Yeah. I mean, look at like a name like Micron. I mean I mean we own that in portfolios. It's like our number nine holdings. We have a 3% holding of it. And I mean, I've trimmed it a couple times, but it's I mean, there's names that are really growing earnings substantially. It's Yes. So, I'm not I'm not sitting here calling this a bubble or anything. I mean, I I think when you look at some of those nonprofitable frothy tech, it's kind of a little bit of its own pocket. It's out there. But the the names that we're all investing in, the names that are driving the S&P, the names that are really driving the NASDAQ 100, I mean, there's a lot of lot of money being made by those companies and and and I think they're going to continue to grow very well. I want to um go back to one of your charts. John, can you put up chart seven? >> So, Bill, this is yours. You mentioned the put call ratio. Uh walk us through why you think um positioning makes it as such that we might sort of see capped upside from here. >> Well, it's if everybody's, you know, it's all the boats invested on one side. I mean, so if everybody's invested in in that downside protection, whatever it might be, you know, it it also has an impact on on gamma dealers and and and really what we've seen a lot of of this year >> where, you know, earlier on coming out of April, it kind it really it really helped the the market move. But at the same time, if if every historically if everybody's extremely negative and buying puts, you know, you're not you're it's it's not move is not going to play out today. >> It's so weird. Everybody has one foot out the door, right? Like as soon as there's some bad news, >> what is this showing? This is the inverted put call ratio. >> Let not puts are not being bought enough right now. >> Puts are not being bought enough. Yeah. >> Which is like that's what you want to see. That's April. >> That's what you want to see. We have the opposite of that. >> Yeah. You see you see the uh the April April move. Yeah. >> Oh, so you think we are susceptible to a downside whoosh. >> Yeah. >> Got it. Got it. Got it. >> Yeah. This is this is what so when when the put call ratio is at this level it's it's typically caps the upside a bit and >> it's toward the end of a big rally not not early in the in the game >> and there has been false signals you can see like quarter four of of of 24 second half of 24 uh false signals that came out of April because remember coming out April I mean everybody got so bullish so quickly and so there was no one was buying puts anymore everything the coast is clear and it kept going so there is false signals it's not it's just it's just one of the things to look You you have another one. Uh John chart 10. You say since the Fed cut rates on September 17th, markets have responded as if it were a meaningful pivot with precious metals and small caps outperforming. The small cap rally deserves I mean today it reversed because you got a lot of regional banks in there. But like uh what do you think it was about what happened on se September 17th? >> I think you get this Fed rate cut. You get the Fed rate cut last September. I mean the economy is I mean we 3% plus GDP credit spreads I mean listen be before as of September very you know there maybe a little wiggle nothing to worry about. Um you know cooking consumers inflation is is you know it's not it's it's not where the Fed wants it but it's not you know not a headwind too much. >> So I mean everything is sort of almost in that Goldilocks form and you get a rate cut. I mean they're just juicing the economy basically. They did a rate cut they didn't have to do on September 17th. >> Essentially that that Fed pivot and and it's essentially it's investors are saying, you know, buy me whatever is not going to be devalued because it's better than if they're going to go in this Trump has stacked the Fed or he will stack the Fed over the next couple next year. So they're it's and that he's going to get his cuts. They're saying they're going to get the Fed rates down to 2% maybe if he gets his way over the next year. Well, if he installs the Fed chair by by the end of May, which is what's going to happen, it may be bet it may be >> Bessant, >> it may be Eric, I don't know, whatever he whatever he wants. There's nobody left to stop him. >> Rates are not staying where they are now. And it almost doesn't matter what the economic data says. >> Yeah. >> Because he's got an opinion that >> low rates good for me, low rates, good for the economy, don't care what the data is, lower the rates. So the the labor market is low hiring, low firing. Consumers are absolutely fine. Uh Bank of America just reported they serve almost everyone. Nothing to see there. Everyone is saying the same thing. Hyperscalers continue to spend and the Fed is cutting. Yeah. >> Hard to be bearish in that scenario. On the other hand, if the cockroaches come out and as always risk is what we're not talking about here. So yeah, you have to you never know. But if you zoom out and just place those two things, it's hard to I think I think Bulls have the upper hand. Yeah, you have to give them the benefit of the doubt. >> Get a little little scare here would be healthy. >> Great. Let's do it. >> Right. Let's let's I mean it would be great to see if we get >> little seven to 10. >> A full 5%. >> A full 5%. >> A full 5%. Maybe seven. >> But isn't that a while? A full five. A full five. >> Full five. Wow. >> Whoa. >> Yeah. >> What's this uh S&P consumer staple sector chart? >> All right. I want to talk about this. Um, our Fred Todd Sone and others at Ned Davis Research do great work. Um, so let's start with chart 16 and we're talking about man, it's kind of wild. The staples have never been a lower percentage of market cap. Well, guess what? Uh, Ned Davis shows that the market's not dumb. The percentage of earnings that the staples are producing is also at an all-time low. Um, >> they just don't matter anymore. But listen, so so John uh John throw up chart 12. So this is from Todd. Consumer staples and energy and healthcare and utilities are lower in the S&P than technology. Now you might see this and understandably conclude, and I love Todd um that this doesn't make sense. Bubble bubble bubble. I'm out. Okay, you have to look at the earnings. So check out this chart that that Matt did. Uh chart 17, please. So similar to Ned Davis, I was inspired by them. I asked Matt to look at this. On the left hand, we're looking at the market cap of Staples and Healthcare, and we're looking at their net income. And guess what's happening? They're moving together to the lower right. The market cap is 14.8%. The net income >> income share percentage of the the whole market. >> And they're they're the same exact thing. 14.8 and 14.7. It's almost like the market is a dumb. And on the other side of the coin, you have Apple and Nvidia. They make up 8.3% of the total income up from 4% in 2020. Doubled. And yes, the market cap is higher. It's 13.2%. Because obviously the market's going to get excited and overextrapulated and overdo it. >> Yeah. >> So maybe we're seeing that, but the market is getting it right by and large. >> So this is an answer to the people that are like the whole thing is dominated by tech. Yeah. because the earnings are >> the multiple to I mean this the multiple of staples relative over the last 10 years is at the upper end of its band >> crazy >> crazy so I mean goes low >> yeah yeah well I mean I think the situation could be different maybe it may be driving some of the money you know right now potentially I mean obviously >> what's the multiple on staples >> 21 >> so we got as high as 22 and a half but 20 over the the mid-range is is is just under 20 over the last 10 years >> so you're paying 20 times for proctor and gamble that's growing 1% a year 450 for Costco. Which you want? >> Costco. Estee Lauder. I mean, Walmart's 39. Hey, Costco's 48. Estee Lauder 46. I mean, >> let's let's do utilities. This is a fun one. Um, first of all, year to date, uh, John 18. Year-to- date returns by sector. >> This is eye candy. >> This is crazy, right? Okay, so utilities are the best performing sector year to date, up 23.7%. Um but they're they're so small as a sector even after that their contribution to the S&P's f uh to year-to- date total return is less than a half of 1%. Think about how insane that is. That's how tiny the utility sector is relative to the whole market that it could be up it could be up as much as it is and not even move the needle for the market. This we're in uncharted territory now. >> Yeah. it. I mean, and these stocks have decent sized market caps at this point because they they've gone up a lot, but like in comparison to the Microns, the the Netflixes, the they just they don't even matter. >> Yeah. >> So, I I thought that was interesting. Um here, let's just equal weight utilities, equal weight S&P 500. Look at this divergence March 2024. Basically, people that thought utilities were like grandpa's stocks. Nope. That's not what's going on anymore. Now, you have record-breaking electricity demand all over the country, all over the economy. And guess what? They're going to treat these stocks like they're uh Alphabet and Meta now. >> And that that's the huge thing is I mean, if you're going to drive AI and power AI, the power demand, we have a slide for that, too. The power demand is is incredible. I mean, you can see some of the forecasts here. natural gas. So, in our portfolios, we don't own a traditional utility. I I it kind of happened quick when these things just started going and but we're also I mean we own KMI, we own LG, we own CCJ, the utility I mean uh uranium um you know some of this but the the natural gas is going to be a massive player. Look at the forecast on this chart from 2025 down to 2035. what natural gas in the yellow is is going to do as empowering. >> Why are natural gas stocks so terrible then? >> Well, natur the explorers, the producers. I don't mean the transmissions. >> LG is breaking down hard. >> Yeah, it's not it's not responded to. I mean, the price natural gas has has not moved much and and they they they don't really there's there's legal things to it now, but basically you just say hypothetically, you know, they just burn it, you know, they just burn it away. there just endless supply like we're like the Saudi Arabia of natural gas. >> So the transporters of natural gas are what's going to need the people that own the pipelines like a Kender Morgan and then I mean LG there could be more geopolitical things because we're they're they're not making money on the shineer on the movement of I mean of the price of natural gas. They're making money on the movement of natural gas. So if it's going to if they're going to bring natural gas to >> if they're going to if they're going to export it that's the that's the play with that stock. >> Okay. Um I don't know. Can you buy Can you buy the utilities here? >> We have some names on our on our watch list like uh NE a couple others, but you know that's that's a new era. >> Yeah. Okay. I mean some of the high quality stuff that that can that can drive with it, but it's I would like to see a pullback in general. >> Well, you're seeing a potential outside day in XLU today. We'll see where it closes. But >> those stock I mean those stocks are basically AI stocks now. Yeah, >> there's none of the none of the volume that's coming into those stocks has anything to do with dividends in the way that it used to. AB: >> Absolutely. I mean, and the other thing you got to be careful about for us too is is I mean, our top holdings are Nvidia and Alphabet and Broadcom and Micron. It's like how much more AI exposure same trade. >> Yeah. So, if you get a Deep Seek moment or something like that, your whole portfolio is going to get get smoked. So, so we we we have a lot we look at more ballasts within our portfolio uh and and how we >> listen to this stat. The utility sector is expected to report the second highest Q3 earnings growth rate. 17.1% of all 11 S&P 500 sectors, second only to tech. I can't I How many other years historically have there been where utilities were putting up high teens growth? None. Maybe none. It's possible. >> I mean, you can't can't imagine many. It's a it's a pretty it's a pretty exciting time to be uh in the market and have things like that going on. So I mean at least at least I think so. Um you have a Mag 7 take going into earnings like where where are you uh where are you most confident? What are the names that we should watch and what are you watching for? >> I think the bar is is high. Um but I think the bar is in the right spot for for some of the names like that that have not done much this year. Amazon. Um, you know, I think the communication around cloud at the last earnings call was, you know, it really hurt Amazon. It kind of kind of pushed them away and you had these just amazing numbers from others. And I think that's that's something that if if Amazon can deliver the results and communicate well, >> that stock has done [ __ ] this year. >> I think it's could finish very strong. >> Pissing me off actually. It was it was one of our higher conviction plays coming into the year, but you know, as you move and and when you raise a little bit of cash here and you re then you re you know, put that cash back in to something else. We haven't been adding to it. It's still up there. I I if if we get the good results, uh I mean it could be something that could really run into the year. Um you know, I mean I can't I can't talk about Micron. There could be a real repricing. >> Is that your favorite chip stock right now? >> It trades like a commodity. You know the one thing >> Yes, it is. It is. It always has been. >> I thought the interesting thing I mean the high bandwidth memory is is you know making making thing making it more efficient and power efficient for to to run this run these chips. the Morgan Stanley I think it was upgraded and they they up they they upgraded the story of DRAM and so I think there's there is some interesting stuff going with Micron and if it you're seeing price targets go to 220 to 240 but there could be a real full repricing in this name if if if it all things are are clicking and and then the m the Ford multiple what it's like it's it's seven yeah >> or no it's 11 11 and a half >> it's it gets valued like a commodity >> is is the way they've always done it >> I mean imagine that Imagine Imagine a 20 multiple on that. >> What if it becomes a less cyclical business? >> Yeah. >> I mean, that would be the dream come true for >> Yeah. >> uh long-standing Micron shareholders at long last. >> You know, no, I think uh a pullback into earnings is is a good thing. >> Yeah. >> Right. I'd rather as a as a shareholder, you want to see like a little bit of doubt creep in. You don't want to see this thing these things flying into earnings. To that point too, you also remember last August and when we were getting that pullback from the highs and if you miss if if they're missing, you know, it's going to hurt them more. So instead of being down 3 to 5% a bad in a in a up market, you're going to be down five to 10. >> It is asymmetric. >> Yes. >> The w the losers are punished more than the winners are rewarded. >> Correct. >> What do you think of the setup on Tesla going into earnings? It's rallied hard this uh summer and fall and it's not as though the fundamentals right away are about to get any better. say strong to quite strong. >> Has it has it reacted to earnings though? I mean, when's the last time it's it's really reacted to the earnings report? It >> just doesn't matter. I guess it I guess the auto earnings on the auto business, it just it doesn't seem to matter anymore. >> I mean, it it is it is a breakout. I mean, really could be if it if it keeps moving higher from here over the the end of last year high before it fell out. Uh I I think it's it's a m more of a momentum play and how how Elon communicates and what's the next event more than more than uh the earnings. >> What do you do with Nvidia here? They're not going to report till the end end of earning season. Stock just made a new record high the other day. See, it was green today with everything else red. >> Is is it the least volatile stock out there? >> It's become very unvatable. Yeah. I I I feel like this can't end until this can't end until this is over 200. >> It's Yeah, it's it's got to do it. I I think I mean we've we've actually seen volatility of Nvidia kind of come out ahead of its earnings report often and but you'll also going into its earning when it gets it earning. We we know what all those big names have already said. How much spending is is is Microsoft and Meta and you get those numbers and that's going to correlate to what I said to Josh last quarter. It's anticlimatic because you already heard from all their compet all their suppliers. You know when I think this ends when Open AI comes public at a trillion dollar valuation, the biggest IPO ever. >> Yeah. >> And it's a flop out of the gates. And it's not because there's anything wrong with Open AI. It's just because at a certain point, enough is enough. >> Yeah. >> That'll be the mo I don't think the market can withstand a meteor of that size hit hitting the surface of of the planet. It's a trillion dollars that'll soak that money out of all these other public companies like they people don't understand when a company comes public the big money come out guy. >> It's sell when a company comes public the people who own it privately are selling it to new people who don't own it. >> Yeah. >> They need to pull money from somewhere to buy it. That's by that's by it's a tortology but it's the actual fact that you're selling stock to the public >> unless public offering of stock unless 7 trillion comes out of the money market funds and boom problem solved trillion dollar IPO the valuation and they need to raise $200 billion to facilitate the offering. People are going to sell other [ __ ] >> All right. So what do you think about this theory? People are I feel like bulls and bears. Everybody's waiting for this to end for it to burst. Is that not Wait, is that not a good framework? >> That would be that would that would not poetic would that would make the most sense. >> The opening IPO would make the most. What if the most frustrating outcome is the most likely where this just keeps we just plot along and there is no >> not the most likely. >> No, no, no, no. That's not what I said. I said the most frustrating outcome is the most likely >> like like l in an LOL world where the most frustrating outcome is there's no bust >> and maybe there is no boom and maybe we just plot along and we grow into these valuations and there is no kaboo >> other than the fact that it's never happened that way. >> I know I know okay a lot of things happen 2% interest rates at the end of 2026 and continued AI spending. I mean, you're going to money is going to be forced into everything that's not, you know, has to be invested into things that are not going to depreciate. Invest your money somewhere. And that's what's driving gold, it's driving silver, it's driving, you know, it's trying commodities, but it's driving AI investment. It's it's driving these call options into, you know, uh, all these nonprofitable tech names. >> So, it it is seem it does seem like a scramble for people to get their money out of dollars and do anything else >> pretty much. Um, >> except except the dollars aren't crashing. Dollar's aren't crashing, but but but the inflation never went away. >> Crashing. It is. Dollar is crashing. It's crashing to gold. >> Oh, stop it. >> Oh my god. One of those. >> So, I got No, I got a text from Sprinkles the other day. Should we be doing more gold? >> Shut up. >> You want to see it? Um, I don't have my phone, but wait, I'll find out. >> Should we be doing more gold? >> Should we be doing more gold? >> Hold on. >> All right. I'm going to >> Bill's like, "All right, on secondhand I'm I'm giving the sign to Phil here." Phil's gonna step out. How you say >> sophisticated investor here? You want to see it? >> Dead ass. Wait, she sent me a whole bunch of nudes. So, I got to be careful scrolling through this with you here. Um, hold on. I want to give you the I want to give you the exact words. Oh, here she is yelling at me. >> What did you say? I'm curious to hear your response. >> I was like, "Shut the up or something." No. Uh, no. I told her we we have gold. We're We're fine. We have everything. We're invested in everything. We we never stop investing. I can't find it right now, but it was to the effect of I heard it's doing really good. >> Now, where the hell did she hear that? >> Below decks. >> CNBC commercials. >> Good morning, America. >> She's not watching CNBC. No offense. >> There's always there's always a gold commercial somewhere. >> She must be They must have been talking about it on either like she doesn't watch The View, >> Costco, >> like a Bethany Frankle podcast or she listens to Scott Galloway and Cara Swisser. She likes that one. I got to find out from her where she heard this. If I hear it's the view, I'm bearish. No offense to anyone, but I don't think it's quite I don't think it's quite there. Gold at 5,000 will be a huge deal and will become mainstream news. >> Well, congratulations to everybody that that bought as much Costco gold as they could last year. >> Yeah. Oh, yeah. They were right. There's another example where the the crowd was right. The herd the herd was not the herd is not always stupid. >> All those things we just never bring up that are the time of like the end of this at the top. Oh, yeah. Jensen Wang signed a bra. Yeah. >> Two years ago, >> Nvidia. Yeah. Half price. >> You did. >> Was it? Was it? >> That should have been the top. >> Remember the watch party? The Nvidia watch parties? >> Yeah. >> Yeah. That was like ago, >> right? Why wasn't that the top when the the earnings call uh happy hours? >> One of these days, >> right? All right. Bill, do you have fun on the show today? >> I had a great time, >> dude. We love you. I have to tell you something. I get the list of who's going to be on the show with me every morning. And when I see your name, I know it's going to be a good show. So, I hope you feel that way about me. >> Of course I Would you like to say some nice things about me now? >> Of course. >> Okay. This is a good space to do that. >> Hey, uh we always end the show asking people what they're most excited about. You're uh you got a lot going on. What What are What's uh what's out on the horizon for you? >> Well, outside of markets, I'm excited. We're going to uh my family are going to Cancun next week. >> Okay. >> And I got three daughters and another family that we are really close with. They have four daughters. They're all like best friends. The kids don't know that they're going up together. Ah. >> Oh, they're going to be so excited. When are they going to see each other at the airport? >> Different flights. >> Different flights. >> So, we land at the same time. >> Unreal. >> And they're going to see each other at the airport and it's going to be like, you know, exciting. >> Oh, very cool. So, they're Oh, so you're going to both you're going to run into each other at the Cancun airport? >> Yes. >> Probably in the line at uh customs. >> Yeah. >> Okay. Awesome. >> That's going to be cool. How long you going for? >> I think just four days. >> Okay, good enough. With kids with kids, that's plenty. >> Four days is plenty. >> Yeah. You know, you plan it. It's late. It's late October Chicago. You don't know if it's, you know, weather's how the weather's going to be and if we get into holiday season and stuff. >> Okay. I have a plot twist for you. It's Michael's family that's meeting you there. >> What do you What do you got going on? What are you excited about? >> Uh, I'm excited for the Knicks. I'm excited for >> What's the first regular season game? It's like >> is it Friday against the Celtics? >> Yeah, this coming Friday. >> Yeah, >> I think we win that. I think we win that one, too. >> I mean, I hope so. They are depleted. >> Uh, >> coming in strong. Coming in hot. You're a big Bulls guy. Not so much stink. >> No. So Marilyn, he's a wizard. A Wizards guy. >> Well, they were even worse. >> You grew up watching the Bullets? >> I did. Okay. I did. >> Joan and Weber and >> Oh, yeah. >> What a horrible franchise. No offense. I mean, >> I think I think I think Jordan Jordan played his last couple years there and that was just brutal. I I mean, I did go see him play. It was great, you know. >> But you had the 80s, early 90s Redskins to make up for it. That wasn't terrible. Wasn't all bad. the Mark Ripen Super Bowl. That was that was fun. That was a fun one, too. >> All right, dude. We want to tell people where they could follow you for more. So, I have a whole bunch of links here. I have bluinefutures.com/bill-baroo. We'll just tell people blueline futures, right? I have your Twitter, x.com/bill_baroo, [Music] and >> social. What's a good social for you? >> That's his social. >> Twitter. And then bluelinecapwealth.com. bluelinecapwealth.com. Okay. And you're on LinkedIn, too. You're dude, you're everywhere. Yeah. >> All right. You having fun doing halftime report? >> I love it. It's been such a great And I'll tell you, it's just it's so great being able to go to the New York Stock Exchange to do it. It's It's like humbling to walk into that, >> dude. It's pretty epic, right? It still is. It still is. It's still like a magical building. I agree. Well, I love being on with you, as I said. So, uh, thanks for everything. Thank you for being on the show. We appreciate you. All right. Bill Baroo, ladies and gentlemen, >> you guys, thank you so much for buying out all the tickets. for uh the live compound and friends that we're doing. We appreciate you guys. We're super excited to see you all. That's coming up very soon, October 24th. And uh man, what a night we have in store for the Compound fans. Huge thanks to uh Duncan and John who are in the room with us today. Rob, Nicole, Graham, Keith, the whole team. We appreciate all of you. Thank you guys so much. And thanks to you. Like and subscribe. See you soon. Yeah. Heat. [Applause]
Inside the Gold and Silver Mania | TCAF 213
Summary
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What part of Chicago did you grow up in? >> I'm from Maryland City. >> Come home. >> Oh, you were in Maryland. >> I grew up in Maryland. Rockville. I didn't know that. >> Good old Rockville, Maryland. >> You're a Commander fan. >> Yeah. That was a brutal brutal loss >> to the Yeah. Well, it happens. >> I mean, well, makes it worse is against the team in Chicago. So, I go going to work, hear it from everybody else. Brutal loss, though. >> We're going to go to a Commander game, Michael and I. Oh, yeah. A couple weeks. Yeah. We're going to we're going to go to the Lions game. >> The stadium's a piece of [ __ ] I hear. Can't be worse than Metland. We were supposed to move back to DC. >> How is the state is garbage though, right? >> It's been a while. It's it's it's inconvenient to get to just like Soldier Field is in Chicago. >> Metife is the absolute worst. >> I went to a Jets game last year. >> Yeah, the Nothing's more convenient than the Giants at the stadium early and I was glad I was able to get out of there. It was a Monday night football game against the Bills. >> I think they hit a Did they win Mary? Just kidding. >> No, Bills won, but I think I think Rogers threw a Hill Mary at the end of the second into the first half. That hit. No, >> the faith. >> Um, the the Gen Z's want to have an office Halloween party. >> We do. >> What does that mean? Like physically in the office or >> buy a 12oot skeleton? >> They want they want to come in and costume is what do we do? >> Make it Make it Make it I'm not here. >> Oh my goodness. >> I saw >> Wait, what day would what day would it be? >> Thursday. The day before. >> Thursday the 30th. >> Yeah. >> All right. Halloween costumes. >> Yay. >> Okay. >> Wait a minute. >> Thursday, October 30th. >> You want me to put it on Home Office? Do we have a show that day? >> Inside Out characters. >> Your home office. >> You can be angry. My gosh. >> Thursday. >> You know, Halloween was on Thursday last year, too. >> 30th. >> Was it? >> I know it was an issue. >> No, it's not Thursday, though. The actual Halloween's Friday. >> You guys dressed up with 30th. >> I don't know dates. I don't even know when when's Thanksgiving. It's the same time every year. November. >> Just so you know. >> Is it is the is Thanksgiving? >> Oh, it's it's the third Thursday of the month, but the date changes. Duncan, you see uh PTA's new masterpiece yet? >> I haven't. I watch. >> Anybody? >> I'm going this weekend. >> Was it good? >> Not yet. >> You liked it? >> I love it. >> It's a good movie, obviously. I mean, there's It's hard to deny it wasn't a good movie, but what the is wrong with people? >> PTA has brainwormed people. Like, he's tricking all you guys. It's not the best movie of the last decade. >> I don't think >> it's not even close. People are going nuts. >> Say that anytime there's a >> No. One battle after another. People are going nuts. >> It was a good movie. >> Not everyone not everyone agrees that it was even good. I had a good time. Some negative comments about it. >> But it's it's it's 14 hours long. There's some really great stuff in there, but people are like legitimately there's people saying it's one of the best movies of the last decade. >> What? >> I did hear a lot of great things before it came out, but I It's a good movie. >> I really loved it. So, I loved it as a movie going experience. I saw it on Giant Iron. >> It's a good movie. But I would not even say it's in his top three. >> Yeah. >> Like the director. And it's definitely not a top three. It had its moments. It's But it's so long and I just I don't get the PTA fever. >> My kids saw Gabby's Dollhouse on Monday and they're raving about it. >> I never heard of that. >> What is that? >> It's a kids cartoon. >> Should Michael watch that? >> I think my kids see movies all the time, but it's been a minute. We haven't There hasn't been a good movie for kids. >> Well, you wouldn't take your kids to that movie either. >> No, I got eight, six, and four. >> You have three girls? >> Three girls. >> 8, six, and four. Oh, man. You're in it. >> You're like in it. In it. >> In it. Are you in the BBS or in the set of >> Yeah, BBS? >> Yeah. Glenn Ellen, west west suburbs of Chicago. I was telling Josh it's like right next to Weaten and Weaten's like this quiet financial hub that not many people realize. >> You know, I asked about Weeden this morning because we had somebody reach out from Weeden who's I said how far is it from the city? But it's apparent it's a little bit too far >> with no no traffic. It's 35, but you know in a traffic Yeah. an hour, you know, could be with no traffic is >> the traffic is so big in the morning. You mean? >> Yeah. Yeah. Well, I mean, hey, in the commodity space, I'm getting down to the office and if I'm heading down there, I catch the 4:50 a.m. train. So, if I'm ever driving, >> are you in the gym at 3:00? You psycho >> before. >> I hit that at 5 a.m. 5:30. >> I won't get in the car in Chicago anymore. I just did the Blue Line. >> Yeah, >> it's I'm I'm never doing that again. It's >> Blue Line. That's where we came from. The name >> I lived I live when my first house I bought in the city. >> Oh, is that what it's named for? >> Duh. Right. >> Down the street from the Blue Line. And then you take the Blue Line and you get off in Jackson, which is next to the Board of Trade. And that's where our office is. >> What's the best Italian restaurant in in Chicago in the city? Don't tell me about a place in uh the suburbs that I won't go to. >> Okay. Old school. I I love taking the team to Lascarola. And that's right off the Blue Line and West um you know, off Grand Street. Really good. >> What neighborhood is that? I know some of the neighborhoods, not all of them. >> It's uh called Westtown River North. >> I know River North. >> Yeah. And then if you're going like newer age, Monta Verde is phenomenal. >> Okay. I haven't been to either of these places. Um, what's the be? So, I took Michael to Gibson's just because obligatory. Um, >> took me. I feel What was that? Your date? We went together. >> But I had been there before you, so I took you. You see how that works? >> Yeah. >> Okay. Took Michael the Gibson's. >> We had great lunch there. >> It was great. We I mean, we didn't like >> Which one though? Downtown or did you do the >> No, the Magnificent Mile one. >> Okay. >> Like the the one that's by all the fancy [ __ ] >> Yeah, the uh Rush in Division. >> And I've been to Joe's Stone Crab for steak. Do they call it They call what do they call it? Joe's. >> Yeah, >> that was great. >> Good. >> Um, and I've been to RPG steak. >> RPM. >> RPM steak. >> That's where my >> Wait, what's the RPG? Rocket propelled grenade. >> Why is it called RPM? >> You know, I wish I knew, but it's Bill Ransick and Juliana Rancic. And so when I think if I got this right when he won the um the Trump show um what you call it back in the day the first one >> the apprentice. >> The apprentice he designed that the the Trump Tower and they and they had connection to Chicago and and did the RPM Italian and then the >> Oh, that's where I ate. I didn't eat steak one. I ate at the Italian one. Yeah. What's the one? >> What's the one that sits like right over the river in like a glass cube? >> That's RPM seafood now. >> Oh >> yeah, they have a third one. >> Whatever. I liked it. some money RPS. >> But no, I we always do our our holiday party and uh at RPM steak. I love the place. >> But all right, but so if somebody's like, I'm going to be in Chicago one night and I want to have a great steak, where do you send them? >> RPM steak or Gib the Gibson, the new Gibson's Gibson's Italia, which is which is uh in downtown like the business area, the loop just right outside the loop. >> I like Italian steakous that that subgenre. They just reopened Pietro here in New York, which is one of the most famous, maybe the earliest version um in Austin. You ever been to uh Red Ash? >> No. >> It's like Italian steakhouse. >> Okay. >> Flames. >> Good. >> Um I I like that kind of thing. So that's what you would do. >> Gibson's Italian. >> Yeah. I love the Elmolino Prime. Told you I always I always go there. >> Can't Elmo. You can't go wrong. Yeah. El Molino Prime. The steak. >> Yeah. Yeah. So I I get the steak in a little bit side. I'm getting all fired up over this. It's almost too much for me. All right. >> How we doing, boys? Think >> we're looking good. >> All right. This is an important man >> coming in. >> All right. [Applause] [Music] [Applause] [Music] Today's show is sponsored by State Street Investment Management and SPY, the first USlisted exchange traded fund. With SPY, investors gain liquid and costefficient exposure to the S&P 500 index. You can't predict your future, but State Street Investment Management can help you create it. Getting there starts here. Access the power of the S&P 500 in a single trade with SPY. Visit statereet.com/spy for more information. Before investing, consider the fund's investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Visit statesreet.com/im for a perspectus containing this and other information. Read it carefully. SPY is subject to risks similar to those of stocks. All ETFs are subject to risk, including possible loss of principle. ALPS distributors, Inc. distributor. What is it? 213. All right, ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Compound and Friends, the world's best investing podcast. It's not even close. You're listening, you already know this. Hey, we have a first time guest with us. Michael and I are so excited to chat with this uh young man, young gentleman. Bill Baroo is the founder and CIO of both Blue Line Capital and investment adviser and Blue Creek Capital Management, a commodity trading adviser located in Chicago, Illinois. Bill has extensive experience in the financial industry as an adviser, trader, and manager. He began his career as an All right, who wrote this? This is way too much already. We're already at the Is this you? You wrote this. I >> I just dropped it in. Bill wrote it. >> I dropped it in there. >> All right. You've done many things. Um >> you were a male model. >> Yeah, exactly. >> Uh you were at a firm that was bought by MF Global. Yeah. >> How long did that last? How long were you there for? >> I think it was three or four years before it blew up. >> You ever meet Cororsine? >> I never met Corsine. But I will tell you, they they went public and the stock never went higher. It was the I think the high was the day went public. They threw this massive party. This is 2010. >> I want to say 2008 when they bought it. >> Oh, >> no. When did it go public? I'm trying to remember. >> When Oh, MF Global went I think public in '08 09. Okay. >> Yeah. And when that went public, they threw this big massive party at the opera house. That was that was that was the high. And then you they start start buying stock for the company too. They force you to buy stock and never never up on it. >> Yeah. Uh what a what a what an unbelievable situation. That's one of the largest blowups ever. >> What were you doing there? >> Eighth biggest bank. >> What did you do wrong there? >> Yeah. Right. Um, no. I I was at I was at a trade desk and uh I learned a lot there. It was it was there was really good people in our our division and we had obviously nothing to do with what Cororesign was doing, but that was back in the day at uh you know order flow had to go through the floor or your people were calling you calling it in. It's like >> this is uh this is the CME. >> Yeah, the CME. So you're calling NAX, you're calling the board of trade, you're calling the CME and there was some stuff electronic still but options all obviously going straight to the floor. And so we, you know, we had a lot of metals traders at our desk and we actually there was there was people that that were trading the the NASDAQ bubble that moved on to the metals because that was the last big bull market in silver. We hit 50 in 2011. So you're watching a lot of people order flow. I was able to learn a lot what works, what doesn't work, saw saw people blow up, had saw people, you know, make a lot of money and um, you know, learn little things in the business and had a good mentor and it was it was a great experience. your commodities experience help you um help you better understand like supply, demand, fear, and greed as when it pertains to stocks? I would imagine that it would. Oh, >> absolutely. >> It's all the same [ __ ] It's all the same people. >> Yeah, >> it's like the same people issues like the way we buy, the way we sell, what drives people to make decisions. I feel like it's not that different. >> It it is. The only difference I think with with the equity markets is is like the flows that have to go into the equity markets compared to the commodities. That's a great point. Yeah. you're not you're not getting those flows. So, you know, commodities there is like some elasticity that has to kind of come back in. I mean, right now you're not seeing it in like silver and gold, but that's always the fear is like when when does that supply come out? Is is who who has silver that is going to start selling or whatever commodity it might be that that's that's moving. Is it wheat or or is it crude oil? You know, I I remember the days in 2010, crude oil went to $150 and so weird. It was a brokerage shop, MF Global. You're opening accounts day after day. Everybody's calling people are are you know taking home equity lines out to to buy crude oil at the time you you know that's that was like the top that was all high in crude oil >> but not right and that aspect of it not so different from what you see with tech stocks like at the top of a tech bubble >> um I have this theory I never wrote about it uh where >> I feel like the stock market in the 70s was a commodities market >> because you did because to your point you didn't have that persistent an inflow coming in every two weeks with 401k money and asset allocation money. It was stocks were treated like commodities and they were way more volatile and the characteristics of the stock market then looked more like a commodity market and today they don't at all. >> Yeah. Much more cyclical names leading I mean who were the large Exxon, AT&T, GE when was Kodak? Was that the 80s? But yeah, that was I mean the the names completely different than the makeup of of the largest. >> I think people the way people thought about stocks back then, they thought about them similarly to the way they think about speculating in commodities. Um 50 years later and market has gone mostly up and we have the advent of the 401k and now I just think people think differently about they look at it more like a place to stash away savings rather than just to trade. They do both now. >> Proven results. I mean after especially after uh you know the 2000 I mean you've seen what is it I mean 10 15% average annual returns. So people they they know they're missing something if they're not invested. It's proof and and it's >> the only guy saying buy and hold in the 70s was Jack Bogle. >> Yeah. >> Now everybody says buy and hold. That's very different. >> After you blew up MF Global, what did you do next? >> Um you know I I I left and worked at a so I I wanted to I never wanted to work for you know a big shop ever again after that happened. It was a bad experience. um you know seeing that play out and so I I started with a a firm with another gentleman and um and you know we I end up starting my own firm Blue Line Futures in 2017 and 2017 um one of my partners Oliver Slope uh and I got together and we wanted to uh put out good con consistent research for clients and kind of take that brokerage move to the uh getting that content out. I was doing videos every day talking about the S&P and trading ranges. We're putting out daily research that daily that has grown. Um you we put out a lot of content with our >> You're very good at the videos, the walking videos. You're like the only one that could actually pull that off. Most people look ridiculous. >> You're good at it. >> Thank you. Back in the day, it used to be I just stood in front of a like a a wall a wall drop and and did it in the office. >> The walking is better. >> The walking is better. It's more casual. Keeps it tighter. Um but yeah, we but as a company, Blue Line Futures, we put out a ton of content. You know, I still write a note every day that covers the S&P levels, the trade. Uh Phil Streel, who's here listening, he he puts out metals research every day about >> Yeah. Shout out to Phil. Phil's uh in studio. He's not really listening to you. He's he's on his phone, so he's already heard enough from you today. >> Yeah, we got a lot of agriculture content that goes out, but a lot a lot of the just across the board. >> Okay, awesome. Love it. I want to uh I want to start with uh I want to start with the private credit stuff that seems to have infected the rest of the stock market today. It's been a while since we've had one of these financial market driven riskoff days. >> I'm not saying it's good, but it's sort of refreshing. >> It's a It's a It's a change from the relentless monotony of AI stocks being up 2% every single day. >> It's been boring. >> It's Yeah, I mean, a lot of money has been made, but now it seems like we're in a new phase. People are really paying attention to this stuff. What do you think? Yeah, I mean you're you're getting getting some two-sided volatility um after after Friday's tweet and it's you're starting to see it play out. And again, I think it's that old cliche saying when the when the shore, you know, comes in, you know, who's not wearing shorts and and I think you get that volatility happening and you you start seeing some some of that stuff show up. >> On Tuesday, >> where where are the cockroaches? That's all that's all that's all I want to know. >> On Tuesday, Josh and I were talking about financials and it's what you see in a healthy bull market. You saw Black Rockck hit an all-time high. You saw JP Morgan, not quite, but great earnings. Uh, Goldman, just solid numbers. Um, but what we didn't do on the Tuesday show was divide or normalize like what's it doing relative to the S&P. >> And actually, if we did do that, and especially on a day like today, the XLF divided by the SPY is breaking down like hard >> like pretty disgusting. This is >> That's not That's not great. What time What time is that chart? >> This is daily. >> Okay. Wow. >> That's Dude, that's ugly. Yeah. So, it's down 2.7% today. S&P is down 70 basis points. Like, this is not good. >> Yeah, >> I would say definitely not good. Um, and it's been about three, four weeks. Some of the big names, the big the big moneysitter banks, Goldman Sachs, they put a high in and they Yeah, they they jumped up a little bit after report. The banks always jump up a little bit after the report when it's a good report, but it's it's it's where they are a week later is what I always like to think about it because you get that excitement of the report and then it comes in, you know, usually the next two or three days. So, I think the the next few trading days are going to be critical for what that sector. >> Well, this one is sell the news clearly, right? Let me read this to you. This is Bloomberg. A pair of blowups. Oh, on Wall Street, everyone's a friendly rival until the losses start. A pair of blowups in the credit market have sparked a war of words over whether banks or private credit firms are better positioned to weather a broader downturn. So Jamie Diamond said there's never one cockroach famously now it's been repeated eight zillion times. Uh Mark Lipshultz from uh Blue Owl Capital fired back saying the issue was in loans that banks led so Diamond should be scouring his own books if he wants to squash more bugs. He did that on TV. I saw that he uh he's he sort of a badass. He's got like a little Jason Stathithm thing going on. This dude, right? >> Uh >> he came on TV with no tie like I'm not a banker. What >> I do like I do respect >> and he's like no you're a [ __ ] cockroach. >> I respect the horseshoe look. This guy's got the the castanza bald but like growing out on the sides. I respect I should >> He's not cro he's not he's not cropping it. He's >> not a phrase like Yeah, I'm bald with hair on the sides. So what? >> What are you going to do about it? >> Billionaire. Uh, what do you make of this stuff? Is it just noise or is it noise that potentially could lead to something? >> I think it can lead to something, but it's it's more more seismic. Would I think it would have to get deeper? I I got a good stat. I I when my my research guy here, um, shout out Dan White. He 19,000 private equity funds and there's 14,000 McDonald's locations. There's more private equity funds. >> And, uh, you know, so a lot of people are jumping in with little experience. So I I think when you get that it's you know I think it could become bigger. >> So my my take is for now and I I said this last week I'll say it again. I'm obviously a tourist >> very complacent >> a tourist here. It's not nothing. >> It's not nothing but the question is like is it really something >> and of course we will know with the passage of time that stat I it just smells a little shitty like I I need it to be normalized a little bit. It sounds very odd. >> There's 19,000 funds. How many firms are there? How many of those funds are $4 million? Like I think the point the point but the point is valid is that there is a lot of activity. >> Yeah. >> In private markets obviously. >> But the implication of that stat is to me what's important. If there are n let's say there were 19,000 funds that's too many all chasing the same opportunity. The question is if if how many of those funds can you get your money out of if you could and then if and if you could who goes to the exit? >> There's no liquidity in these funds. Exactly. And that's the point. >> That's the point. >> But but to me, you look at that number of funds and you just picture the competition to write loans cuz if you raise money, you want to make loans. If everyone else has raised money also, which is the case, it's trillions of dollars and they all want to make loans, what happens? Will you start cutting some corners? We'll do it faster than the other guys. Okay, great. We'll do it with less covenants, less protection. Okay, that sounds great, too. We'll do like all of a sudden you and I'm not saying that's definitely what happened. That's what people are worried about is what happened. >> But this this story is fraud allegedly it looks like. But you can >> Well, which one? Now we're on to >> Now we're on to five different isolated incidents. >> So hold on. It's first brandic color. Is that what else? Have you not seen what uh Zion's Bank is saying and Western Alliance is saying? >> I was not on the news today. What happened? >> They are regionals getting >> writing off they are writing off loans and suing people saying that uh fraud has happened and that's why the regional is getting crushed. >> So here's what we know. We know that the market is not going to underreact, >> right, to any negative news. It's going to overreact. Um may maybe or maybe not. Maybe it is underreact and we'll find out. With that stat though, you could also say all right well there's 26,000 mutual funds and 14,000 ETFs. are making up those numbers and there's too much money and yeah, maybe that's sort of the the whole point of all of this is that there is too much money. There's too much money chasing too few assets, valuations are high, the prices the prices of everything is high. There's a lot of money in the system. >> Well, I go back to Josh's point, too, where you have this number of funds. I mean, maybe you don't know the size of each one, but that the money's coming in, the money has to be going somewhere. It has to be used, which forces poor investment decisions, and and I think that's where the problems happen. >> They can't sit on cash. >> Yeah. That's not that's not the type of business that they're in. They're in the business of allocating the money so that they have the ability to bill on it. And uh you will do things if you need to bill. What do we got here? >> That was Kobe. He showed me you got 100 on his test. >> Oh, that's so cute. Uh was his test on private credit? >> Cuz if not, >> it was senior secured. >> Give me this chart. Gota. >> So, I was talking to I was talking to Cali today in our research channel and Cali watches like all the spreads and um thought this was interesting. We were saying like there's no there's no spike in in credit spreads in junk versus investment grade or junk versus treasury. But interestingly, this is triple C versus double B spreads. So, the junkiest junk versus the quote unquote highest quality junk. And here's something starting to It's nothing. It's not crazy, but it's also not zero. I don't know. I I look at the regional banks, business development corporations, look at uh the junkiest junk, and I just say like maybe the market's overreacting, but how could we be so sure? >> Well, the other thing to add is on the regional banks. Are they loosening their lending standards in order to win these private credit deals? And is that going to come back to haunt them? >> Probably some yes, some no. >> Yeah. >> Right. and we'll we're all gonna find out. >> We're gonna find out together. Anyway, uh >> we don't know [ __ ] about this. Let's talk about the stock market. >> I think it's I think it's I think it's notable because other people are are reacting. I don't think it's notable because the the whole world's on fire. I want to ask you about the metals world. So, the best performing industry group in the stock market this year, metals and mining, up almost 100%, which is insane for an industry group of stocks. That means some of them are up way more than that. Are you like blown away by this? We've never seen this before. >> I mean, I I am I am You can't not be surprised at the velocity. >> Gold is up 60% on the year. >> Well, the the velocity of the move that's taken place just over the last 3 to 6 weeks is is absurd. I mean, it's in a good way. It that's got to be a little surprising for anybody. But I mean, you go back to the turn of the year and you start seeing what was bubbling up in gold and and we get to 3000 and and you see Trump policies and you see the ddollarization um you see the central bank buying consistently central bank buying uh and uh Basil 3, you know, which actually took effect in July of 2025. So it's now officially a tier one asset on central bank balance sheets. So you look at that. I mean our thesis was gold's going to go to 5,000. We just didn't think that this is going to happen this Christmas. >> You think it would happen by Christmas? >> Yeah. Okay, that seems to be the trajectory that we're on. >> Yeah, >> there no one's selling. >> Well, there well there is no reason to sell. I mean, the most of the buying is coming from central banks and they're putting on their balance sheet and it's a move away from the dollar and there's there's, you know, we think there's proof that that China has understated their their gold reserves by 20%. >> You think they're quietly accumulating? >> Oh, yeah. Certainly. Okay. >> And so I I I think if gold and I've sat I've sat down with with a CEO in in the gold mining space and he asked me, "Bill, what would make this what what would what would ruin this? What what could make it go down? >> What would ruin this uptrend in gold?" >> Yeah. And and I and I I I said at the end of the day, I I don't know what would because the massive selling that would take this away would have to come from central banks and they're not selling. What we could get though, I mean, we could certainly get a 10% this at the time gold was at 3500 to 3,700 or so. is just breaking out and yeah we get a 10% move you know probably if just deleveraging maybe at this point it could be a 20% move deleveraging >> I was going to tell you the only thing that ruins this is a global recession where these central banks are forced to sell gold in order to do stimulus in their own countries because that is literally what ended the gold bull market in 2011 European sovereigns Asians or they all so like >> but how does that change if it's a tier one asset now on their balance sheet it is as good as cash. Yes. But if you need the money, you need the money. Yeah. >> The other thing that could end it is if people get too excited about gold. >> Yeah. >> Like big leverage coming in on the long side. I don't know. Phil Phillip probably has like better better guesses than I do, but like it it eventually does end, but it doesn't have to end for 10 years. Like there's no >> it could be a big cycle here right now. >> It could be a big deal, right? >> It definitely and I and I I think what could end I mean there obviously be a number of things and you you look back even co and I remember that it was like the first week of March whenever that Monday coming out of the oil Saudi Arabia and Russia oil news and oil's down 10 bucks gold made a high that morning but then within weeks and in the co shutdowns it was I think 300 bucks I think it was 1,700 to 1400 and so gold really sniffs out inflation and it doesn't may it may not react how you would expect during the inflation like in 2022 Fed's hiking rates The dollar is strengthening. Gold was whacked, but it smells inflation. So, so it's going to it's going to see it and it's going to react prior to the inflation. So, I would say what we're seeing right now potentially could be more inflation, but then you're also getting the GDPs of of Germany and Japan and things like that. That's why the dollar is actually rising in and over this last week, last couple of weeks when gold's been breaking out, which is a pretty interesting phenomena. >> That's rare. Yeah. Um, I wanted to ask you why is silver rallying so hard? And then I'll ask you the same on copper. What's what's happening there? >> What's borrowing rates, lease rates? You can't get the physical silver and they're trying. >> So, explain. We don't have like a hardcore commodity trading audience. Explain what you mean by that. >> Well, I guess the best way to put it would be um lease rates. So, so in order to move silver around, it's uh it c in order to get the physical silver, you can't you can't move it from spot to spot uh in order to get it to London. And in order to and there's lease rates that in order for borrowing costs, they're surging because you can't get the physical silver. So >> why do what who needs the physical silver? >> Uh in order, you know, it's in order for processing, industrial reuses and and then you're also getting demand for buying. I mean, more than 50% of the use of silver now is industrial use. >> I thought you were going to say Jared. >> Yeah. >> Okay. >> Well, I thought you I thought you were going to say teenage boys in Masipua. All right. Go on. >> Yeah. I mean, so I I think it was a little unique that China went into its autumn festival um two weeks ago and and you know, they they are a supplier of silver. They're not exporting necessarily. That could that could be a driver. If they decide to export silver, put it down. But um you know, there was a there was definitely an alignment with those lease rates surged. It costs more money to get your hands on silver, but I guess best way to put it uh around the time of the autumn fest festival. >> There's a scare there's a scarcity >> scarcity of silver for sure. and tons of demand because silver typically rallies with gold but has higher beta usually follows gold more. Yeah, usually follows gold too. So it's this has been sort of bubbling under the surface and I think once it got above $40 there's always the conspiracy theories that the banks are selling silver selling paper silver against the physical things like that. But I think once it got above 40, uh, the the ceiling was lifted and and I think it it changed the dynamic of >> silver just made its first inflation adjusted high since the Hunt brothers failed attempt to corner the silver market in 1980. I thought that was remarkable. Like what a moment. >> Just to let you guys know, it's the physical back ETFs over in London. Those are the ones that need to secure the silver. So as they get more investors in those ETFs, the demand that they the amount they got to show investment demand turning into physical demand. >> Yes. >> Wow. Duncan, I'm impressed. >> That that of course was uh Paul Tudtor Jones. Thank you so much for being here, PTJ. Uh we we appreciate that. Um how how do you play the upside in the metals? I know because I know you're you're both commodities and futures guy, but then I know you own pneumont and you're involved in the mining stocks too. >> Yeah. So, let's start with the futures. I mean, it's I mean the interesting the CME group has done a really great job of making micro contracts over the years. So, um because futures trading is of notional value and you know, so the the main contract of silver is a 5,000 ounce contract of silver, you know. So, at 20 bucks it was a $100,000 contract. Now, at 40 bucks, it's a $200,000 contract. At 60, you know, so you know, it get you get it. The the actual the value of the contract's larger. So, you're the the volatility you're withstanding is is larger. >> Oh, in dollar terms, the swings are huge. >> Yeah, they're huge. So, now there's a micro contract that's been around for for a few years now, and it's a thous contract of silver. >> Even at that point, you got the thousand ounce contract of silver now is is what is the notional value of what silver was. I mean, so options volatility has has surged. you know, one of the ways I mean, again, we've we were invested and and I run a a metals called Metals Alpha. It's a CTA. It's it's a it's investable program. Um, we I mean, we've been in this pressing the gas on this most of the year. And right now, we've lifted off the gas because the volatility we are we run our strategy with looking at the average true range and and the ranges have just been massive. So, we >> the longer the rally continues, the larger that ATR becomes, which raises your potential risk for when it reverses. Do you think this is a blowoff top? It's It's going vertical. >> I mean, I think we go to 70. I mean, we can we could I mean, there's calls for 100. I think it was Bank of America. So, >> what's that on silver? >> Yeah, silver. Yeah. So, we we put on when we got out of the the futures and we're just kind of we we are tiptoeing in the futures because the ranges are $2 to $4 a day. Um and we don't want we don't want to get caught in a big downdraft if it does happen. And um we you know, call options. We did some call spreads a couple month about a month ago like out to January 6575 call spreads. the diagonal caterpillar box. >> But no, something simple that that we could capture if it does have that >> why a call spread >> because if it has that bananas move where it just goes up5 to $10 over over what it has been if it keeps this pace up, we're able to capitalize on it and know what our risk is to be invested in it. >> Oh, so you can you can put yourself in a you could put yourself in a box >> and and get the upside but not be fully exposed. >> Yeah. 10 a $10 wide spread 6575 goes out to expiration end of December and you know initially we're buying those from 10 to 20 cents. >> Who else is doing that trade along with you? You seeing a lot of like funds doing that? I >> mean I think a lot of funds may use options to manage the risks in this type of environment that that's where my expectation would be. So and we're managing you know we we look to protect our downside as well. So we're doing different proprietary strategies managing delta and tail risks. Now, is it uh true that only silver can kill a werewolf? >> That in a what is it? A uh >> or vampire. Vampire is a wooden steak. Yeah. >> All right. I want to ask you about copper. >> What the hell is that about now? That's its own that's like that's its own thing that's going on. >> People are shocked by this >> that it's lagging. >> Yeah. Well, just like wait, I don't understand. The rest of the world's stocks are outperforming the S&P 500. China's stock market's up 38% this year. Why? Like why are gold and silver rallying this hard and copper is not reacting to better than expected everything overseas like it normally does? Well, copper was up over five and a half. And if you remember, it was like the July 30th Fed meeting. And that was when Trump was really going after Powell a lot. And so, right when that Fed meeting was dropped, uh, the White House announced that they they the copper tariffs, but they're exempting the cathode and the cathode goes in that in the in the refining process to to make the copper. And so, so that would that actually copper fell historically 20% that day. Yeah. So it really hasn't I mean there's a lot of damage in the chart but um you know and then and then most recently like yesterday you're hearing about more exports from from China and they're going to ramp up their ramp up their copper. >> You just don't have the same scarcity profile with with copper that you >> and and I think I think you will over time but when you have a 20% drop the way it did there's a lot of damage to that chart. even somebody like myself that's that wants to invest in it like I've only tiptoed in it because you know it's it just feels like there's a lot of damage to the upside and and it and it's going to it's going to you know a lot of dead bodies overhead you know look at it that way there's a lot of supply technically overhead so I think it has to chew through that I mean if the metals in in general keep going higher I think copper is going to have to join the party but physically I mean you look at the data center investments you're looking at other things that are going on here the infrastructure spending that's going on here in the US or around the world the the you know emerging market economies take, you know, they're stepping their game up and investing in their economies. Um, copper's is is on and going to continue to be on high demand, but the you're not really getting that growth out of China either as that demand I think just this early in the week it was uh negative CPI number again, surprisingly in China. So, you're not getting that growth. Uh, and that's been a headwind as well for for copper. >> You still like gold and silver here. >> Am I putting new positions on in gold and silver here? You're letting it ride, but you're not pressing you're not pressing the bet. >> Yeah. Rolling up rolling up some stops. And uh but I mean in the in our metals, you know, our mining alpha portfolio that you mentioned, we own Numont, we own Core, we own Bareric, we no more than 10 names is kind is the idea in that portfolio. It's concentrated. You know, we launched that portfolio in July. And I mean, and they were already up, you know, half only half as much as they are now, but which was already a lot at that time of the year. We couldn't we didn't have time to get all that cash to work. And >> I was going to say you like they're not letting anyone in. Yeah. So, we got we got about twothirds of the cash to work and and so any pullbacks we want to be we would do want to be buying. Do >> do are you telling people that you intend to hold those forever like be invested forever or would you say to the people look this is a gold bull market and it's in a one for the record? It's an amazing one but if it ends we don't want to own these these companies. >> Well, if you look at it >> they're not good companies. They never have been. >> Well, there's I mean right now there's going to be tons of free cash flow free cash flows and and doesn't last and and Yeah. And but then what the phenomenon here is is you have you have gold prices higher and you have input cost energy and that that they have to purchase and use lower oil prices are lower and so that that's a tailwind to the business. I think that's something that that makes it a longer cycle and I think we could be you know a year and a half into what could be a 5year cycle. >> Just wait till the copper miners discover quantum computing and then boom just easy extract the copper off and running. You haven't really thought about AI in the gold market yet. Um, what what's this purple chart? What are we doing here? >> Um, what we're doing here is we're talking stocks. >> All right, let's go. What do you got? >> All right, Vanda, uh, has some great data showing retail activity in the stock market. And what they're showing is that uh, the highest amount of one day inflows was last Friday. >> Wait, where is that, >> Josh? This is called a a chart. >> I see. >> And the black line is the stocks and the purple line is the buy in the very bars. >> Yeah, there you go. You got it. You get it. >> Wait, but we went down. >> They bought. >> Okay. So, he's new here. >> So, the stock market went down on lot on Friday and retail buyers went all the way in >> and it worked and it already worked until today. >> Uh, so let's let's talk about the stock market. uh chart Matt did this thing for us when the S&P is up 7.8% 8% drawing the line to make it work. I suppose um going into the fourth quarter the average return for Q4 is 7.7%. And in fact going back to 1950 there's never been a down quarter when the market is up this much going to three quarters. Now N equals I don't know enough 15 or so thoughts. >> Well I I think one of one of the tailwinds to a fourth quarter rally is the seasonality that you get in August and September. and we never pulled back in August, August and September. So, you know, if you start October lower, yeah, it's easier to finish higher. I I do think we're going to have a strong finish the year and I think I think the Mag 7 can really can really uh I mean, some of those names are, you know, not done much this year and I I expect strong earnings reports and I think they're going to be a leader to finish out quarter 4. But, you know, the the tough thing is, you know, it would be, you know, we're seeing a lot of volatility right now. The VIX is above 20. It's a 24 25 here today and that leads to further volatility. I'm surprised we haven't seen more downside this week and we may. So there's going to be a little bit of a of a you know rebuild a little bit potentially but at the same time every time this market is sold off it it hasn't been down for more than one day or two days. So I think it's going to we're in this little vacuum of there's there's no there's no government data. Um there's you know we're waiting on earnings and and there you know no one everybody's kind >> earnings start next week. >> Yeah, we're waiting. No one's blinking yet. So, >> we sort of need it. We sort of need a Microsoft report to to get us to stop looking at regional bank uh charge offs. >> How much more did they spend on on AI, right? >> Yeah. I'm I'm going to guess I'm going to guess a lot more. Um >> this is a good one. We could we could skip the the next seasonal one. Uh the the bottom line is absent some news that knocks us off course and maybe it's the cockroaches, the managers are going to chase, right? The people that are underinvested chasing t just it happens every year. Uh this is some good stuff from Warren Pies. So we are in a I guess a blackout period where companies cannot purchase their own stock. So Warren Pies has a chart that shows the typical annual cycle for S&P 500 buyback volume. And of course there are blackout periods and we're in one right now. But the >> well they have to report earnings and then they it's came back on. >> But what he's showing is that once the buying picks back up, he breaks it down statistically. you do see pretty significant uh positive returns for the S&P 500 companies. >> Oh, it's it's noticeable stock, right? Stocks stocks have a better period of time during the buyback phase. >> I mean, it's obvious, but but the point is we're coming up to >> continuing bid. >> I like I like that idea. We Nobody's like really talking about buybacks anymore. I don't know if we're making a record this year or not. >> You know why? because it's it's AI is just talking the oxygen. That's all anybody wants to >> and every earnings report they're talking about raising their buybacks too. So there they the buybacks are there for sure. >> Yeah. >> So Bill, does this make you nervous? Um we are obviously in a retailers having a moment. You could call it a mania. Some of the returns at some of their favorite stocks, quantum computing, nuclear, uranium, just scary, >> all that [ __ ] Um, so Trading Thomas 3 on Twitter shared that retail has been buying calls for 24 consecutive weeks, which reached a record high last week. I mean, there's just no chill. >> You know, I I think there's certainly and that's what's made me nervous this summer a little bit. I thought we'd get that seasonal pullback and and you know, I love I love what we were able to accomplish in our portfolio into July and August and so it made sense for us, you know, to to trim a little bit and kind of wait and watch a couple rounds, have some flexibility, and the situation hasn't deteriorated at all. And I mean, >> September just kept going, >> kept going. And so I I think that's that's the interesting thing. You get this these retail flows that keep that keep pushing it higher. But at the same time, I mean, you look at with you buy that many those calls. I mean there's the put call ratio has has hit a level that it it it does cap the upside returns in the near term. So I think that's something that you know what we're going through this week it could be timely and I don't think I don't think it's going to be seismic. I don't think it's like a I mean you even go back to March of 23 when the when these literally banks were were not the doors were closed and shut down the next day. Um we we AI rallied us out of that and and Kaisha Kaisha crazy question. I don't even understand where people are getting the money to do this. >> Look at this chart. So, put >> Can we go Can we go back to that though? >> No, look at this. Look at this. >> What is this? >> This is showing mega cap tech. So, for all the talk of like we're in a bubble, um the mega cap tech are significantly underperforming the crazy names. So, it's mega cap tech divided by nonprofitable tech. And if you invert this, it is the ratio here is wild. Mega cap tech is no longer exciting enough to attract retail trading. >> These things are going sideways a lot of them in the mega cap tech. >> That's the frothiness. That's >> they want that oak. >> Yeah, that's the stuff they want. Makes me nervous. >> But where So put this chart back up. The retail options trading. What is this like out of people'sing paychecks? What are what are what are they doing? What are the dollar amounts involved in this? >> You know what really got >> cuz how do you keep losing unless they keep losing money? the retail call buyers. They're crushing it. And you know what? And you know what really got it going? And I I know from talking to people firsthand. I was a little bit in the first one. I haven't done much more after that, but Eric Jackson on the open call >> and I think that was the big start. >> That was the spark. You're right. >> That was a spark. And we've seen a number. He's had a couple other calls since then, but that's what really got people super. >> He came out He came out this with the stock at a dollar. Said it's going to $80. It did go to 10. Yeah. I don't know where it is now. >> Looks pretty vulnerable. It's at 7-Eleven. >> Yeah. Don't try charting. Don't try to six. No, I know. It'll be It could be a 15 next year. >> He might get Drake to buy uh to to buy a million dollars worth of stock. It'll go to 50. >> You really You don't really don't want to chart that. >> Uh I agree with you. That seemed like it was a moment. >> Yeah. >> And then ever since people are just like, "What's the craziest thing I could do?" >> Yeah. It's like what what am I buying today to make money? It's like an assumption that you're going to make money today if you just open. >> But the but that's such a good point. Where's the money coming from? Because it's not it's not only retail and it's not only options. So last week, Bank of America showed that single stock inflows were the fifth largest in history. So single stocks um and the biggest ever for a week that the market was down at least 1%. >> I mean the firepower >> is endless that like they don't react negatively to headlines anymore really. The dips are bought the same day. They don't even wait a day. >> Well, somebody had a great take on Ollo and you could use this for a lot of these companies. There's no exposure. there's no revenue. Uh they're not sensitive to interest. It's just whatever. There's there's nothing tethering it to fundamentals. >> I mean, a lot of these names, I mean, they're they're unprofitable. They're not making money. I mean, it's a story. They're equity financed. They're not subject to uh borrowing rates. >> A lot of tech always is. It's not it's not what you're doing for me now. It's what you're going to do for me in the future. And this is really extending that narrative and saying, and it's pulling that cash in there. You're buying a story. I mean, you've you these are a lot of people, I'm sure, people that have made money in Bitcoin, people have made money in in other things, and they're moving that money around, but they've made money hodling. They made money doing things. And I'm not I'm not dogging at all. Making money is not dumb. I making money is not dumb. >> They're they're I mean, these people are they're doing their thing, man. >> I'm sure that there will be I'm Listen, this it is a mania. A lot of these these are pre-revenue names. I would guess that there's going to be a handful of winners over the long term. Yeah, >> maybe maybe at lower valuations, but a lot of these are going to just the companies though are not stupid. They're all selling equity. They're all doing secondary. >> Allegedly, the CEO of one of these companies, I don't know if it's Olla or Ionic. I don't want to I forget which one it was. Allegedly like sold all of us stock. >> Really? I mean, we're getting and we've gotten multiple calls into us at Blank Capital like clients like, "Why can't you buy this name in my portfolio?" Like, listen, I mean, the music's going to stop at some point. It's going to be done. as a fiduciary, we can't we we can't do that. >> Why don't we own this piece of [ __ ] that everyone else just made uh 400% on? >> Yeah. So, those are the conversations that my some of my team has had, some have come to me, and it's I mean, not I'm not talking dozens, but maybe you know nearly. >> It's hard. You have to just send them a link to uh you have to send them a link to Robin Hood, tell them download the app, do whatever you want. We're not doing that. >> But let's just bring it back to because I I really think it's important that people that are listening don't hear us talking about this pocket of media, which which it is. and say, "Oh, the whole thing's a bubble. The whole thing's a house cards." Because it's important that we zoom out. Yeah. >> So, Yuri Timmer has a great chart that shows the good news is that the earnings are doing the heavy lifting as we enter year four of this bull market. The PE ratio is only up 1% year-over-year while earnings are up 11%. That is critically important. The PE is only up, this is for the S&P, I'm guessing, only 1% year-over-year. So, all of this expansion that we've seen, it's earnings. So it is fundamentals, companies are growing, margins are at all-time highs. Like there is good reason why stocks are going up despite a lot of the nonsense. >> Nvidia is underperforming its earnings growth. >> We we see Nvidia as as almost relative to other pockets in tech of value by there's some great names out there. >> It's wild, but it is it is that way. >> Yeah. I mean, look at like a name like Micron. I mean I mean we own that in portfolios. It's like our number nine holdings. We have a 3% holding of it. And I mean, I've trimmed it a couple times, but it's I mean, there's names that are really growing earnings substantially. It's Yes. So, I'm not I'm not sitting here calling this a bubble or anything. I mean, I I think when you look at some of those nonprofitable frothy tech, it's kind of a little bit of its own pocket. It's out there. But the the names that we're all investing in, the names that are driving the S&P, the names that are really driving the NASDAQ 100, I mean, there's a lot of lot of money being made by those companies and and and I think they're going to continue to grow very well. I want to um go back to one of your charts. John, can you put up chart seven? >> So, Bill, this is yours. You mentioned the put call ratio. Uh walk us through why you think um positioning makes it as such that we might sort of see capped upside from here. >> Well, it's if everybody's, you know, it's all the boats invested on one side. I mean, so if everybody's invested in in that downside protection, whatever it might be, you know, it it also has an impact on on gamma dealers and and and really what we've seen a lot of of this year >> where, you know, earlier on coming out of April, it kind it really it really helped the the market move. But at the same time, if if every historically if everybody's extremely negative and buying puts, you know, you're not you're it's it's not move is not going to play out today. >> It's so weird. Everybody has one foot out the door, right? Like as soon as there's some bad news, >> what is this showing? This is the inverted put call ratio. >> Let not puts are not being bought enough right now. >> Puts are not being bought enough. Yeah. >> Which is like that's what you want to see. That's April. >> That's what you want to see. We have the opposite of that. >> Yeah. You see you see the uh the April April move. Yeah. >> Oh, so you think we are susceptible to a downside whoosh. >> Yeah. >> Got it. Got it. Got it. >> Yeah. This is this is what so when when the put call ratio is at this level it's it's typically caps the upside a bit and >> it's toward the end of a big rally not not early in the in the game >> and there has been false signals you can see like quarter four of of of 24 second half of 24 uh false signals that came out of April because remember coming out April I mean everybody got so bullish so quickly and so there was no one was buying puts anymore everything the coast is clear and it kept going so there is false signals it's not it's just it's just one of the things to look You you have another one. Uh John chart 10. You say since the Fed cut rates on September 17th, markets have responded as if it were a meaningful pivot with precious metals and small caps outperforming. The small cap rally deserves I mean today it reversed because you got a lot of regional banks in there. But like uh what do you think it was about what happened on se September 17th? >> I think you get this Fed rate cut. You get the Fed rate cut last September. I mean the economy is I mean we 3% plus GDP credit spreads I mean listen be before as of September very you know there maybe a little wiggle nothing to worry about. Um you know cooking consumers inflation is is you know it's not it's it's not where the Fed wants it but it's not you know not a headwind too much. >> So I mean everything is sort of almost in that Goldilocks form and you get a rate cut. I mean they're just juicing the economy basically. They did a rate cut they didn't have to do on September 17th. >> Essentially that that Fed pivot and and it's essentially it's investors are saying, you know, buy me whatever is not going to be devalued because it's better than if they're going to go in this Trump has stacked the Fed or he will stack the Fed over the next couple next year. So they're it's and that he's going to get his cuts. They're saying they're going to get the Fed rates down to 2% maybe if he gets his way over the next year. Well, if he installs the Fed chair by by the end of May, which is what's going to happen, it may be bet it may be >> Bessant, >> it may be Eric, I don't know, whatever he whatever he wants. There's nobody left to stop him. >> Rates are not staying where they are now. And it almost doesn't matter what the economic data says. >> Yeah. >> Because he's got an opinion that >> low rates good for me, low rates, good for the economy, don't care what the data is, lower the rates. So the the labor market is low hiring, low firing. Consumers are absolutely fine. Uh Bank of America just reported they serve almost everyone. Nothing to see there. Everyone is saying the same thing. Hyperscalers continue to spend and the Fed is cutting. Yeah. >> Hard to be bearish in that scenario. On the other hand, if the cockroaches come out and as always risk is what we're not talking about here. So yeah, you have to you never know. But if you zoom out and just place those two things, it's hard to I think I think Bulls have the upper hand. Yeah, you have to give them the benefit of the doubt. >> Get a little little scare here would be healthy. >> Great. Let's do it. >> Right. Let's let's I mean it would be great to see if we get >> little seven to 10. >> A full 5%. >> A full 5%. >> A full 5%. Maybe seven. >> But isn't that a while? A full five. A full five. >> Full five. Wow. >> Whoa. >> Yeah. >> What's this uh S&P consumer staple sector chart? >> All right. I want to talk about this. Um, our Fred Todd Sone and others at Ned Davis Research do great work. Um, so let's start with chart 16 and we're talking about man, it's kind of wild. The staples have never been a lower percentage of market cap. Well, guess what? Uh, Ned Davis shows that the market's not dumb. The percentage of earnings that the staples are producing is also at an all-time low. Um, >> they just don't matter anymore. But listen, so so John uh John throw up chart 12. So this is from Todd. Consumer staples and energy and healthcare and utilities are lower in the S&P than technology. Now you might see this and understandably conclude, and I love Todd um that this doesn't make sense. Bubble bubble bubble. I'm out. Okay, you have to look at the earnings. So check out this chart that that Matt did. Uh chart 17, please. So similar to Ned Davis, I was inspired by them. I asked Matt to look at this. On the left hand, we're looking at the market cap of Staples and Healthcare, and we're looking at their net income. And guess what's happening? They're moving together to the lower right. The market cap is 14.8%. The net income >> income share percentage of the the whole market. >> And they're they're the same exact thing. 14.8 and 14.7. It's almost like the market is a dumb. And on the other side of the coin, you have Apple and Nvidia. They make up 8.3% of the total income up from 4% in 2020. Doubled. And yes, the market cap is higher. It's 13.2%. Because obviously the market's going to get excited and overextrapulated and overdo it. >> Yeah. >> So maybe we're seeing that, but the market is getting it right by and large. >> So this is an answer to the people that are like the whole thing is dominated by tech. Yeah. because the earnings are >> the multiple to I mean this the multiple of staples relative over the last 10 years is at the upper end of its band >> crazy >> crazy so I mean goes low >> yeah yeah well I mean I think the situation could be different maybe it may be driving some of the money you know right now potentially I mean obviously >> what's the multiple on staples >> 21 >> so we got as high as 22 and a half but 20 over the the mid-range is is is just under 20 over the last 10 years >> so you're paying 20 times for proctor and gamble that's growing 1% a year 450 for Costco. Which you want? >> Costco. Estee Lauder. I mean, Walmart's 39. Hey, Costco's 48. Estee Lauder 46. I mean, >> let's let's do utilities. This is a fun one. Um, first of all, year to date, uh, John 18. Year-to- date returns by sector. >> This is eye candy. >> This is crazy, right? Okay, so utilities are the best performing sector year to date, up 23.7%. Um but they're they're so small as a sector even after that their contribution to the S&P's f uh to year-to- date total return is less than a half of 1%. Think about how insane that is. That's how tiny the utility sector is relative to the whole market that it could be up it could be up as much as it is and not even move the needle for the market. This we're in uncharted territory now. >> Yeah. it. I mean, and these stocks have decent sized market caps at this point because they they've gone up a lot, but like in comparison to the Microns, the the Netflixes, the they just they don't even matter. >> Yeah. >> So, I I thought that was interesting. Um here, let's just equal weight utilities, equal weight S&P 500. Look at this divergence March 2024. Basically, people that thought utilities were like grandpa's stocks. Nope. That's not what's going on anymore. Now, you have record-breaking electricity demand all over the country, all over the economy. And guess what? They're going to treat these stocks like they're uh Alphabet and Meta now. >> And that that's the huge thing is I mean, if you're going to drive AI and power AI, the power demand, we have a slide for that, too. The power demand is is incredible. I mean, you can see some of the forecasts here. natural gas. So, in our portfolios, we don't own a traditional utility. I I it kind of happened quick when these things just started going and but we're also I mean we own KMI, we own LG, we own CCJ, the utility I mean uh uranium um you know some of this but the the natural gas is going to be a massive player. Look at the forecast on this chart from 2025 down to 2035. what natural gas in the yellow is is going to do as empowering. >> Why are natural gas stocks so terrible then? >> Well, natur the explorers, the producers. I don't mean the transmissions. >> LG is breaking down hard. >> Yeah, it's not it's not responded to. I mean, the price natural gas has has not moved much and and they they they don't really there's there's legal things to it now, but basically you just say hypothetically, you know, they just burn it, you know, they just burn it away. there just endless supply like we're like the Saudi Arabia of natural gas. >> So the transporters of natural gas are what's going to need the people that own the pipelines like a Kender Morgan and then I mean LG there could be more geopolitical things because we're they're they're not making money on the shineer on the movement of I mean of the price of natural gas. They're making money on the movement of natural gas. So if it's going to if they're going to bring natural gas to >> if they're going to if they're going to export it that's the that's the play with that stock. >> Okay. Um I don't know. Can you buy Can you buy the utilities here? >> We have some names on our on our watch list like uh NE a couple others, but you know that's that's a new era. >> Yeah. Okay. I mean some of the high quality stuff that that can that can drive with it, but it's I would like to see a pullback in general. >> Well, you're seeing a potential outside day in XLU today. We'll see where it closes. But >> those stock I mean those stocks are basically AI stocks now. Yeah, >> there's none of the none of the volume that's coming into those stocks has anything to do with dividends in the way that it used to. AB: >> Absolutely. I mean, and the other thing you got to be careful about for us too is is I mean, our top holdings are Nvidia and Alphabet and Broadcom and Micron. It's like how much more AI exposure same trade. >> Yeah. So, if you get a Deep Seek moment or something like that, your whole portfolio is going to get get smoked. So, so we we we have a lot we look at more ballasts within our portfolio uh and and how we >> listen to this stat. The utility sector is expected to report the second highest Q3 earnings growth rate. 17.1% of all 11 S&P 500 sectors, second only to tech. I can't I How many other years historically have there been where utilities were putting up high teens growth? None. Maybe none. It's possible. >> I mean, you can't can't imagine many. It's a it's a pretty it's a pretty exciting time to be uh in the market and have things like that going on. So I mean at least at least I think so. Um you have a Mag 7 take going into earnings like where where are you uh where are you most confident? What are the names that we should watch and what are you watching for? >> I think the bar is is high. Um but I think the bar is in the right spot for for some of the names like that that have not done much this year. Amazon. Um, you know, I think the communication around cloud at the last earnings call was, you know, it really hurt Amazon. It kind of kind of pushed them away and you had these just amazing numbers from others. And I think that's that's something that if if Amazon can deliver the results and communicate well, >> that stock has done [ __ ] this year. >> I think it's could finish very strong. >> Pissing me off actually. It was it was one of our higher conviction plays coming into the year, but you know, as you move and and when you raise a little bit of cash here and you re then you re you know, put that cash back in to something else. We haven't been adding to it. It's still up there. I I if if we get the good results, uh I mean it could be something that could really run into the year. Um you know, I mean I can't I can't talk about Micron. There could be a real repricing. >> Is that your favorite chip stock right now? >> It trades like a commodity. You know the one thing >> Yes, it is. It is. It always has been. >> I thought the interesting thing I mean the high bandwidth memory is is you know making making thing making it more efficient and power efficient for to to run this run these chips. the Morgan Stanley I think it was upgraded and they they up they they upgraded the story of DRAM and so I think there's there is some interesting stuff going with Micron and if it you're seeing price targets go to 220 to 240 but there could be a real full repricing in this name if if if it all things are are clicking and and then the m the Ford multiple what it's like it's it's seven yeah >> or no it's 11 11 and a half >> it's it gets valued like a commodity >> is is the way they've always done it >> I mean imagine that Imagine Imagine a 20 multiple on that. >> What if it becomes a less cyclical business? >> Yeah. >> I mean, that would be the dream come true for >> Yeah. >> uh long-standing Micron shareholders at long last. >> You know, no, I think uh a pullback into earnings is is a good thing. >> Yeah. >> Right. I'd rather as a as a shareholder, you want to see like a little bit of doubt creep in. You don't want to see this thing these things flying into earnings. To that point too, you also remember last August and when we were getting that pullback from the highs and if you miss if if they're missing, you know, it's going to hurt them more. So instead of being down 3 to 5% a bad in a in a up market, you're going to be down five to 10. >> It is asymmetric. >> Yes. >> The w the losers are punished more than the winners are rewarded. >> Correct. >> What do you think of the setup on Tesla going into earnings? It's rallied hard this uh summer and fall and it's not as though the fundamentals right away are about to get any better. say strong to quite strong. >> Has it has it reacted to earnings though? I mean, when's the last time it's it's really reacted to the earnings report? It >> just doesn't matter. I guess it I guess the auto earnings on the auto business, it just it doesn't seem to matter anymore. >> I mean, it it is it is a breakout. I mean, really could be if it if it keeps moving higher from here over the the end of last year high before it fell out. Uh I I think it's it's a m more of a momentum play and how how Elon communicates and what's the next event more than more than uh the earnings. >> What do you do with Nvidia here? They're not going to report till the end end of earning season. Stock just made a new record high the other day. See, it was green today with everything else red. >> Is is it the least volatile stock out there? >> It's become very unvatable. Yeah. I I I feel like this can't end until this can't end until this is over 200. >> It's Yeah, it's it's got to do it. I I think I mean we've we've actually seen volatility of Nvidia kind of come out ahead of its earnings report often and but you'll also going into its earning when it gets it earning. We we know what all those big names have already said. How much spending is is is Microsoft and Meta and you get those numbers and that's going to correlate to what I said to Josh last quarter. It's anticlimatic because you already heard from all their compet all their suppliers. You know when I think this ends when Open AI comes public at a trillion dollar valuation, the biggest IPO ever. >> Yeah. >> And it's a flop out of the gates. And it's not because there's anything wrong with Open AI. It's just because at a certain point, enough is enough. >> Yeah. >> That'll be the mo I don't think the market can withstand a meteor of that size hit hitting the surface of of the planet. It's a trillion dollars that'll soak that money out of all these other public companies like they people don't understand when a company comes public the big money come out guy. >> It's sell when a company comes public the people who own it privately are selling it to new people who don't own it. >> Yeah. >> They need to pull money from somewhere to buy it. That's by that's by it's a tortology but it's the actual fact that you're selling stock to the public >> unless public offering of stock unless 7 trillion comes out of the money market funds and boom problem solved trillion dollar IPO the valuation and they need to raise $200 billion to facilitate the offering. People are going to sell other [ __ ] >> All right. So what do you think about this theory? People are I feel like bulls and bears. Everybody's waiting for this to end for it to burst. Is that not Wait, is that not a good framework? >> That would be that would that would not poetic would that would make the most sense. >> The opening IPO would make the most. What if the most frustrating outcome is the most likely where this just keeps we just plot along and there is no >> not the most likely. >> No, no, no, no. That's not what I said. I said the most frustrating outcome is the most likely >> like like l in an LOL world where the most frustrating outcome is there's no bust >> and maybe there is no boom and maybe we just plot along and we grow into these valuations and there is no kaboo >> other than the fact that it's never happened that way. >> I know I know okay a lot of things happen 2% interest rates at the end of 2026 and continued AI spending. I mean, you're going to money is going to be forced into everything that's not, you know, has to be invested into things that are not going to depreciate. Invest your money somewhere. And that's what's driving gold, it's driving silver, it's driving, you know, it's trying commodities, but it's driving AI investment. It's it's driving these call options into, you know, uh, all these nonprofitable tech names. >> So, it it is seem it does seem like a scramble for people to get their money out of dollars and do anything else >> pretty much. Um, >> except except the dollars aren't crashing. Dollar's aren't crashing, but but but the inflation never went away. >> Crashing. It is. Dollar is crashing. It's crashing to gold. >> Oh, stop it. >> Oh my god. One of those. >> So, I got No, I got a text from Sprinkles the other day. Should we be doing more gold? >> Shut up. >> You want to see it? Um, I don't have my phone, but wait, I'll find out. >> Should we be doing more gold? >> Should we be doing more gold? >> Hold on. >> All right. I'm going to >> Bill's like, "All right, on secondhand I'm I'm giving the sign to Phil here." Phil's gonna step out. How you say >> sophisticated investor here? You want to see it? >> Dead ass. Wait, she sent me a whole bunch of nudes. So, I got to be careful scrolling through this with you here. Um, hold on. I want to give you the I want to give you the exact words. Oh, here she is yelling at me. >> What did you say? I'm curious to hear your response. >> I was like, "Shut the up or something." No. Uh, no. I told her we we have gold. We're We're fine. We have everything. We're invested in everything. We we never stop investing. I can't find it right now, but it was to the effect of I heard it's doing really good. >> Now, where the hell did she hear that? >> Below decks. >> CNBC commercials. >> Good morning, America. >> She's not watching CNBC. No offense. >> There's always there's always a gold commercial somewhere. >> She must be They must have been talking about it on either like she doesn't watch The View, >> Costco, >> like a Bethany Frankle podcast or she listens to Scott Galloway and Cara Swisser. She likes that one. I got to find out from her where she heard this. If I hear it's the view, I'm bearish. No offense to anyone, but I don't think it's quite I don't think it's quite there. Gold at 5,000 will be a huge deal and will become mainstream news. >> Well, congratulations to everybody that that bought as much Costco gold as they could last year. >> Yeah. Oh, yeah. They were right. There's another example where the the crowd was right. The herd the herd was not the herd is not always stupid. >> All those things we just never bring up that are the time of like the end of this at the top. Oh, yeah. Jensen Wang signed a bra. Yeah. >> Two years ago, >> Nvidia. Yeah. Half price. >> You did. >> Was it? Was it? >> That should have been the top. >> Remember the watch party? The Nvidia watch parties? >> Yeah. >> Yeah. That was like ago, >> right? Why wasn't that the top when the the earnings call uh happy hours? >> One of these days, >> right? All right. Bill, do you have fun on the show today? >> I had a great time, >> dude. We love you. I have to tell you something. I get the list of who's going to be on the show with me every morning. And when I see your name, I know it's going to be a good show. So, I hope you feel that way about me. >> Of course I Would you like to say some nice things about me now? >> Of course. >> Okay. This is a good space to do that. >> Hey, uh we always end the show asking people what they're most excited about. You're uh you got a lot going on. What What are What's uh what's out on the horizon for you? >> Well, outside of markets, I'm excited. We're going to uh my family are going to Cancun next week. >> Okay. >> And I got three daughters and another family that we are really close with. They have four daughters. They're all like best friends. The kids don't know that they're going up together. Ah. >> Oh, they're going to be so excited. When are they going to see each other at the airport? >> Different flights. >> Different flights. >> So, we land at the same time. >> Unreal. >> And they're going to see each other at the airport and it's going to be like, you know, exciting. >> Oh, very cool. So, they're Oh, so you're going to both you're going to run into each other at the Cancun airport? >> Yes. >> Probably in the line at uh customs. >> Yeah. >> Okay. Awesome. >> That's going to be cool. How long you going for? >> I think just four days. >> Okay, good enough. With kids with kids, that's plenty. >> Four days is plenty. >> Yeah. You know, you plan it. It's late. It's late October Chicago. You don't know if it's, you know, weather's how the weather's going to be and if we get into holiday season and stuff. >> Okay. I have a plot twist for you. It's Michael's family that's meeting you there. >> What do you What do you got going on? What are you excited about? >> Uh, I'm excited for the Knicks. I'm excited for >> What's the first regular season game? It's like >> is it Friday against the Celtics? >> Yeah, this coming Friday. >> Yeah, >> I think we win that. I think we win that one, too. >> I mean, I hope so. They are depleted. >> Uh, >> coming in strong. Coming in hot. You're a big Bulls guy. Not so much stink. >> No. So Marilyn, he's a wizard. A Wizards guy. >> Well, they were even worse. >> You grew up watching the Bullets? >> I did. Okay. I did. >> Joan and Weber and >> Oh, yeah. >> What a horrible franchise. No offense. I mean, >> I think I think I think Jordan Jordan played his last couple years there and that was just brutal. I I mean, I did go see him play. It was great, you know. >> But you had the 80s, early 90s Redskins to make up for it. That wasn't terrible. Wasn't all bad. the Mark Ripen Super Bowl. That was that was fun. That was a fun one, too. >> All right, dude. We want to tell people where they could follow you for more. So, I have a whole bunch of links here. I have bluinefutures.com/bill-baroo. We'll just tell people blueline futures, right? I have your Twitter, x.com/bill_baroo, [Music] and >> social. What's a good social for you? >> That's his social. >> Twitter. And then bluelinecapwealth.com. bluelinecapwealth.com. Okay. And you're on LinkedIn, too. You're dude, you're everywhere. Yeah. >> All right. You having fun doing halftime report? >> I love it. It's been such a great And I'll tell you, it's just it's so great being able to go to the New York Stock Exchange to do it. It's It's like humbling to walk into that, >> dude. It's pretty epic, right? It still is. It still is. It's still like a magical building. I agree. Well, I love being on with you, as I said. So, uh, thanks for everything. Thank you for being on the show. We appreciate you. All right. Bill Baroo, ladies and gentlemen, >> you guys, thank you so much for buying out all the tickets. for uh the live compound and friends that we're doing. We appreciate you guys. We're super excited to see you all. That's coming up very soon, October 24th. And uh man, what a night we have in store for the Compound fans. Huge thanks to uh Duncan and John who are in the room with us today. Rob, Nicole, Graham, Keith, the whole team. We appreciate all of you. Thank you guys so much. And thanks to you. Like and subscribe. See you soon. Yeah. Heat. [Applause]