Investor Summary
Fund Strategy
FUND PERFORMANCE AS OF 31st December 2025
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
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Green Alpha argues that China is winning the Next Economy transition by controlling the Electric Stack—the four technologies that convert electricity into motion and work: lithium-ion batteries, neodymium magnets, power electronics, and embedded compute. These technologies have shown a composite 99% cost decline since 1990, enabling electric vehicles, drones, robots, and grid storage. China controls 75% of global battery production and 90% of neodymium magnets, while the US makes a leveraged bet on AI alone. The firm believes AI is powerful but insufficient without physical deployment capacity. China adds power capacity at 8x the US rate and has become the first electrostate, offering 21st-century infrastructure while the US remains a petrostate. The investment opportunity lies in companies building the Electric Stack and riding proven cost curves. Green Alpha's mandate for 2026 is moving capital from petrostate friction toward electrostate orchestration, betting on companies solving systemic risks rather than creating them in the emerging post-scarcity economy.
China is winning the Next Economy by controlling the Electric Stack (batteries, magnets, power electronics, embedded compute) while the US makes a leveraged bet on AI alone, but the real value lies in physical infrastructure that converts electrons into work, not just intelligence.
The transition is happening with wind and solar growing from under 2% to 17% of global power generation in fifteen years. The cost curves are working and the physics is on our side. However, the transition is being won in manufacturing terms by China. The US can still compete through advantages in innovation, capital markets, and talent attraction, but competing requires recognizing that intelligence alone is insufficient.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14 2026 | 2025 Q4 | 002594.SZ, 006400.KS, 300274.SZ, 300750.SZ, 373220.KS, 601012.SS, 601766.SS, GE, QS, TM, WOLF | AI, Batteries, China, Energy Transition, geopolitics, infrastructure, Manufacturing, technology | - | Wind and solar have grown from under 2% to 17% of global power generation in fifteen years. Electric vehicles are approaching 25% of new car sales globally. The cost curves are working and the physics is on our side, but the transition is being won in manufacturing terms by China. AI capabilities are real and consequential, with models now reasoning through complex problems. However, AI operates under constraints and cannot transcend the physical systems in which it must be embedded to create value. The true value lies in System Orchestration rather than generating text. China controls approximately 75% of global lithium-ion battery production, manufactures 90% of the world's neodymium magnets, and dominates solar panels, wind turbines, and grid equipment. China has become the first electrostate while the US remains the world's largest petrostate. China controls the Electric Stack including batteries, magnets, power electronics, and embedded compute. These four technologies show a composite 99% cost decline since 1990. The West's strategic advantage may lie in mastering molecular re-manufacturing and recycling. Power electronics and silicon carbide represent contestable leadership opportunities. Wolfspeed leads globally in silicon carbide substrates with 33.7% market share. The shift to SiC is early enough that leadership remains contestable despite Chinese dominance in other areas. |
| Oct 13 2025 | 2025 Q3 | - | Artificial Intelligence, clean energy, Decarbonization, resource efficiency, semiconductors |
NET AVGO RBRK XPEV NET AVGO RBRK XPEV |
Green Alpha frames AI as a key catalyst accelerating the energy transition, driving demand for next-generation power and data infrastructure. The firm identifies opportunities in efficiency innovators like Broadcom and Cloudflare and resource-optimized industrials mitigating systemic risks. Its Next Economy thesis links AI, clean energy, and decarbonization as converging investment themes shaping global growth. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process through tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code. The firm views AI as a force multiplier for human judgment rather than a replacement, emphasizing the Kasparov Law principle. They believe the market narrative around AI displacement is swinging to unhelpful extremes, creating investment opportunities. |
Machine Learning Automation Software Productivity Innovation |
Battery Supply ChainChina controls the Electric Stack including batteries, magnets, power electronics, and embedded compute. These four technologies show a composite 99% cost decline since 1990. The West's strategic advantage may lie in mastering molecular re-manufacturing and recycling. |
Lithium Battery Recycling Supply Chain Manufacturing Critical Minerals | |
ChinaChina's economic rebalancing appears to be moving forward. Market liquidity, anti-involution and a measured consumer policy are likely to drive a sustained market performance in 4Q. Fiscal support and ongoing reforms in China is supportive of a stronger currency. |
Growth Policy Currency | |
Energy TransitionThe portfolio maintains significant exposure to electrification themes through companies like Bloom Energy, which provides clean, reliable power solutions for AI data centers. The energy transition represents a structural opportunity as companies race to build power infrastructure to support growing electricity demands from AI workloads. |
Electrification Clean Energy Power Generation Fuel Cells Grid Infrastructure | |
SemiconductorsRGA initiated a position in Lattice Semiconductor, viewing it as an under-appreciated AI winner with immediate gains and longer-term optionality. Lattice's focus on efficiency and advantages in low-power, small footprint FPGAs position it favorably for AI servers, particularly as the only Post-Quantum Cryptography secure chips on the market. |
FPGAs Security Efficiency AI Infrastructure Programmable | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process through tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code. The firm views AI as a force multiplier for human judgment rather than a replacement, emphasizing the Kasparov Law principle. They believe the market narrative around AI displacement is swinging to unhelpful extremes, creating investment opportunities. |
Machine Learning Automation Software Productivity Innovation |
Energy TransitionThe portfolio maintains significant exposure to electrification themes through companies like Bloom Energy, which provides clean, reliable power solutions for AI data centers. The energy transition represents a structural opportunity as companies race to build power infrastructure to support growing electricity demands from AI workloads. |
Electrification Clean Energy Power Generation Fuel Cells Grid Infrastructure | |
Resource Efficiency |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2025 | Fund Letters | Garvin Jabusch | XPEV | XPeng Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Automotive | Bull | NYSE | AI, autonomous driving, Electric Vehicles, Ev infrastructure, Mass market, mobility, Partnerships | Login |
| Oct 13, 2025 | Fund Letters | Garvin Jabusch | NET | Cloudflare Inc. | Information Technology | Software | Bull | NYSE | Ai edge, cybersecurity, energy efficiency, SaaS, Scalability, Sustainability, Zero trust | Login |
| Oct 13, 2025 | Fund Letters | Garvin Jabusch | NET | Cloudflare Inc. | Information Technology | Software | Bull | NYSE | Ai edge, cybersecurity, energy efficiency, SaaS, Scalability, Sustainability, Zero trust | Login |
| Oct 13, 2025 | Fund Letters | Garvin Jabusch | AVGO | Broadcom Inc. | Information Technology | Semiconductors | Bull | NASDAQ | AI, cloud infrastructure, Diversity, energy efficiency, Governance, semiconductors, Vmware | Login |
| Oct 13, 2025 | Fund Letters | Garvin Jabusch | AVGO | Broadcom Inc. | Information Technology | Semiconductors | Bull | NASDAQ | AI, cloud infrastructure, Diversity, energy efficiency, Governance, semiconductors, Vmware | Login |
| Oct 13, 2025 | Fund Letters | Garvin Jabusch | RBRK | Rubrik Inc. | Information Technology | Software | Bull | NYSE | AI, cybersecurity, Microsoft partnership, Ransomware, resilience, SaaS, Zero trust | Login |
| Oct 13, 2025 | Fund Letters | Garvin Jabusch | RBRK | Rubrik Inc. | Information Technology | Software | Bull | NYSE | AI, cybersecurity, Microsoft partnership, Ransomware, resilience, SaaS, Zero trust | Login |
| Oct 13, 2025 | Fund Letters | Garvin Jabusch | XPEV | XPeng Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Automotive | Bull | NYSE | AI, autonomous driving, Electric Vehicles, Ev infrastructure, Mass market, mobility, Partnerships | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| 002594.SZ | BYD and CATL, still leveraging but now having far exceeded A123's IP, dominate global production |
| 300750.SZ | CATL alone commands 38% market share in global lithium-ion battery production |
| GE | For insight into the real economy operating beneath this AI and data center boom, we must look elsewhere within the S&P 500, including bellwethers like General Electric |
| QS | emerging American players like Quantumscape Corp are pursuing higher energy-density chemistries |
| WOLF | Wolfspeed leads globally in silicon carbide substrates (33.7% market share), even after a difficult restructuring—and the shift to SiC is early enough that leadership remains contestable |
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