Gareth Soloway: Gold's Next Price Target, Plus Silver and Bitcoin Calls
Summary
Gold Market Analysis: Gareth Soloway discusses the current bullish consolidation in gold, predicting a potential pullback to $3,500 before a rise to $6,000 in the long term.
Silver and Platinum Insights: Silver has broken out and is expected to reach $50, while platinum needs to break above $1,500 to confirm a bullish trend.
Stock Market Outlook: Soloway anticipates a 10% correction in the stock market, highlighting the overvaluation in sectors like semiconductors and the potential for a larger downturn.
Economic Concerns: The weakening US labor market and rising credit card delinquencies signal economic stress, despite the stock market's recent highs.
Federal Reserve Strategy: The Fed faces challenges balancing rate cuts with inflation concerns, as Powell highlights the stock market's role in inflation through the wealth effect.
Bitcoin Forecast: Bitcoin is expected to fall below $100,000 by year-end, with a potential head and shoulders pattern indicating further downside.
Investment Caution: Soloway advises caution, noting that market exuberance often precedes downturns, and emphasizes the importance of assessing risk versus reward.
Transcript
[Music] I'm Charlotte Mloud with investingnews.com and here here today with me is Gareth Soloway, chief market strategist at verifiedinvesting.com. Thank you so much for being here. Always great to have you. >> Oh, thank you so much, Charlotte. It's great to be back and great to talk markets. There's a lot going on. >> I know people are probably getting tired of hearing me say this to everybody, but it's a perfect time to be talking. And of course, we've got to begin with gold today. So, we are catching up from our conversation back in April. So, so much has happened right now. We are trading either at or near all-time highs for gold depending on where the price is at this moment. So, lots of excitement, but I think people are also feeling okay, do we need to see a correction at this point? So, for gold, what are you seeing in the charts right now? >> Yeah, and that's a great point. So per the charts, we are getting to a point where we're getting extended and I'll bring up my charts to show here. Um, so number one, the the last time one of the last times we talked was right around this all-time high here. And we did see from that point what's called bullish consolidation. And essentially, if we connect these highs and these lows, you get what's called a bullish wedge. And so this was telling us that price had run so much from December of 2024 into April 2025 that it needed to digest the move to gain strength for its next breakout. And sure enough, it broke out recently. And look at what it's done since it broke out. I mean, just straight up vertical move. If you've been a gold bug for a long time, you know that gold tends to not move so vertically. So, in general, it's actually healthy to see it pull back a little bit. And so one of the things I discovered on the charts, and this is really kind of cool, I use parallels to give myself resistance levels. And so what I did here is take the low from 2024 basically when the bull breakout began. If we zoom back out, you can see that in 2021, we went sideways. We kept on hammering on this $2,000 level over and over again, hammering. And then finally in 2024, we broke out. So let's use that low and connect it through the most the lowest point which is right down here right here. All right. And that's in December of 2024. We bring a parallel all the way up to that previous all-time high. And look at what we get. We get the high here and then we had that base of consolidation and look at what we kissed today. And so based on this, this tells me that at least we should go into what we would call a consolidation period or digestion period, which generally is a small pullback on gold as it kind of gets ready for its next move. So I still think there's upside on gold um into next year and beyond, probably as high as $6,000 in this bull run. But you just have to be cognizant that charts very rarely go straight up. And if they do go straight up, they pull back harder. So here in gold situation, let's look for a pullback maybe as low as 3500 and then the next leg to the upside can start. >> Lots of great information and context on gold there and you hit on a couple of points that I was going to ask you about. So I do remember from previous conversations you've got that 6,000 long-term target for gold. I was wondering if we could take a closer look at maybe the next quarter. How how is that looking? How it could play out until the end of 2025? >> Yeah. So, so based on this hit on this trend line, what we're likely to see is that gold will now go into a period of sideways chop, probably pretty similar to what we saw over here, which again, if you're a long-term bull, you don't mind this because it's just digestion. We all like to be paid out fast if we're long gold, but it's healthier to see these kind of sol consolidation periods. And this one lasted from April all the way until basically August before the big move up. And so I think it's very possible we could see in the next quarter something very very similar. And what I like to do is if we just extend this out here and bring this up a little further to look out into the future, I would generally look for sideways chop that could take us back to the previous high. So in technical analysis, what's so fascinating is that once we break out above a previous all-time high, like from April, there's a tendency to want to come back to home base. and home base is the previous high where you saw a lot of consolidation. And so in reality, it would make a lot of sense for gold to just pull back to this level here, this 3500 level, which should be really, really good support. And in all fairness, it could take up to 2 to 3 months. So maybe by end of year, we're still kind of struggling here. But then the positive is it's gathered its strength and can make its next push. And by that point, my guess is this UPS sloping parallel gets closer and closer to 4,000. And I think the next target then is $4,000 an ounce on gold. >> Yeah, definitely. I'm starting to hear more and more about that 4,000 number and it feels it feels quite attainable at this point. So really good to go into that. And what I'm wondering, so when you are doing technical analysis from my understanding, so you're looking at past patterns, you're looking at history and how things play out, but as we get into essentially uncharted territory for gold where we're entering these new all-time highs so frequently, does that impact how how you are looking at the future? >> So when you go to new all-time highs, you're you're essentially in uncharted territory. um it does make it harder to find levels, but that's where you start breaking in these ups sloping trends, right? So on gold, for instance, we have this longerterm parallel which allows us to bring this trend line up and it actually gave us the recent high that we just kind of kissed today on gold. So you don't have as much at your disposal because you don't have as much history in this area. But again, you still can find something. And even when you're in uncharted territory, there's a going to be a pivot point where there's certain amount of buyers that bought and they're happy enough with their gains and they're going to sell into that. And so you will get a pullback. It's up to us as technicians to figure out at new all-time highs, where is that going to be. And again, things like the parallel, the ups sloping or ascending parallel is a great tool for that. Also, fib extensions can work very very well. >> Okay. Okay. So, it's doable. Maybe a little bit tricky, but but still doable. All right. And if we're looking at gold, definitely we've got to take a look over at what's happening with the gold stocks as well. Maybe we can look at GDX, GDXJ, and see how they're looking at this time. If they're mirroring gold or doing something else there. >> Yeah. So, this is such a cool chart because it showcases a principle that I use in technical analysis called as above, so below. And what you have here is a very defined trend line on GDX. It goes back to October of 2024 and then we kind of fell back down here. We made our way back to the trend line. We pulled back. We kind of got back there again, pulled back. We came up right here, pulled back and then broke out. Now, this as above so below technique, essentially what you do is you say, well, what was the furthest I was below this trend line, which is obviously an important trend line in recent history. And really, that would be probably right here, right? This is the the furthest you were away from that trend line when it pulled back here. And if you kind of drag that across, you can see that there's no other real point that was further away. And what you do is you say, "Okay, well, if that was the furthest away to the downside, then my upside target should be equal to that." And what's so cool is that if we take that and we put it right to the line, look at this guys. literally like the high today on GDX went right there and then GDX has started to sell off. And so just like gold is hitting that that upside resistance, you're now looking at downside on GDX cuz it has achieved its target. And it makes sense that if gold's going to pull back a little bit, probably the gold miners will pull back a little as well. Just like with gold, I would be a buyer. Like at some point if this ever pulls back to this orange trend line, I'm buying that though. That would be the buying opportunity. >> That is very cool to look at. And I like that you also highlight the the buying levels there. So that gives us a nice look at what's happening with gold. But of course, we've got to talk about what's happening in silver as well. And I think I remember in previous conversations, you're a little bit less of a fan of silver compared to gold. But we also have silver on the move, making some exciting advances. So how how are you seeing it for silver? What do you think the outlook is? Because it's another one where of course we want to see it move, but we wonder how far can it go at this time. >> Yeah. and silver silver has broken out and so it granted it did go into some resistance. I'll discuss that. But until it broke out, I was a skeptic just because again, if the economy is weakening and it's partially an industrial metal, you know, those are all things. But ultimately, when gold, I mean, think about this. Gold gets so extended away uh from silver that eventually it pulls silver behind it. Um, and I think that's really what we've seen here lately. But one of the things I love to show here is that you had this kind of UPS sloping trend line here. And you can see that essentially every time we would hit this line, and you can see it right here. I'm going to use a little directional signal. So here and right here, and all along this area, we just kept on getting rejected. Finally, they got us above and that's where we've gotten this beautiful run. So now we did come into a resistance at $44 per ounce. The resistance here comes from a pivot high in 2011 right here. And and this was the second highest high, right? And so this was in August of 2011. So just on a technical analysis basis, this gives us a point where after this really good silver run, it should take a breather. But I actually am bullish now on silver after we take that breather. I do think it's destined to get back to that $50 level, which was the high in 2011. Technically just below 50. And I actually think eventually it's going to go higher than 50. But it but in the meantime, look for consolidation, small pullback here at 44 and then eventually a breakout in the next couple months towards that $50 level. >> Okay. Okay. So, if you're feeling a little bit more bullish on silver at this point after after we see that correction, how are you how high do you think it could go in the future? Are you are you a triple digit silver kind of person or how are you feeling? Yeah. So on silver I'm not triple for and then again this is the next 6 to 12 months. Um so keep in mind if you know if we talk about where this is in 5 or 10 years that's a different story but just in let's say 6 to 12 months. Um what I've done here is basically say okay well if we have let's use our parallel again just like it just predicted that gold move. If we zoom out to our monthly chart and we go back to the low of the last bull run which started basically in 2001 2002 and then topped out in 2011 and then to this low here right right through these levels and let's draw that trend line in. All right so we can see here that essentially we have a point where every pullback pullback pullback kind of chops around this this one outlier right here where we dipped below that was the COVID collapse. And so I I refer to that one as an outlier because it was just all out panic. We saw oil at that time oil actually went negative. The current month contract was like negative $40. They were actually paying you to buy oil at that point or to take oil. Now granted, you had to figure out where to store thousands of barrels of oil because if you were going to buy it, that's what you had to do. But the point being is that notice how it reestablishes right here. And so what then I we want to do is we want to say okay well in this bull run if we drag this up to our previous high which was the 2011 high where does that parallel extend out to and it goes to 60 bucks and so for me at least in the next 6 to 12 months I would say there's almost 50% upside on silver here uh to about a $60 handle. >> Yeah I think that sounds pretty reasonable on the silver side. And just briefly because we're talking about precious metals, I want to bring up platinum as well because I kind of see it as a similarish situation to silver where it was moving sideways, sideways, sideways for years and the market was in deficit and now finally we're seeing that that breakout. So when you look at it from a technical perspective, what are you seeing for platinum? >> All right, so platinum is an interesting one here. So let's jump into the platinum chart here. So number one, platinum is up into a resistance level. So while we've seen silver break out, we've seen gold break out, platinum is still struggling at this up ascending trend line. And you can see again, you're taking your biggest pivot top here from 2016 to your secondary pivot high in 2021. And what's so interesting is we hit it over here in July. We had a big pullback and now it's reattacking. But even today, it pierced the line and it's pulled back. And so for me, for me to get really bullish on platinum, I need to see a break above basically 1500. If it breaks 1500, this is going to have legs like silver. And you're probably looking at around 18 to,900, maybe eventually 2,300. But for me as a technician on the charts, as a trader, I need to see it get above 1500 before I really say, "Okay, it's game on here. This should make a bigger run." >> Yeah. Yeah. Fair enough. Okay. Glad that we went into that one and and through all the precious or most of the precious metals. I want to take a step back because of course especially for gold it's good to take a broader look at what's happening in the world. And where I want to begin here is check in with you on the health of the US economy right now because it has been months since we spoke. What are you seeing? Yeah. So, you know, we continue to see a US labor market that is weakening. Um, the markets, the stock market itself is absolutely ignoring it, but that's very normal. And I'll throw up the S&P chart here just to kind of show you guys what we're seeing here. So, the S&P is just coming off all-time highs. It's down a little bit today, but for the most part, the economy is weakening. You've had this bigger and bigger divergence between the halves and the have nots. And I'm sure a lot of viewers out there can appreciate what I'm going to say here is that if you've been an investor and you have a lot of money invested, you're weathering inflation. Couldn't care less about X, Y, and Z. You're fine with home prices where they are. You probably have a home and prices have gone up substantially. Everyone else, even some of the middle class, is getting left behind, and they're really struggling. Some stats that really are shocking. You know, we have credit card delinquencies of 90 days or greater. It's now as high as it was in the great recession financial crisis. Um, buy now pay pay later. We've heard about buy now pay later. 25% of the people using buy now pay later are using it to buy groceries. And that's just not a good thing, right? That is not a healthy thing. Now, listen, the high-end, they're still buying their Ferrari, right? I mean, the stock market keeps making all-time highs. Um, Bezos keeps building more yachts, right? I mean, all these type of things. But o over time this as soon as the stock market starts to have a correction where we don't make new highs in a month or two months the economy is at a pivot point where where it will slip very quickly. You're going to see then the high-end consumers start to pull back and that is the last straw for this economy. So I do think that again um we're teetering um as long as the stock market makes new all-time highs almost daily. Okay. the the economy itself, the GDP numbers can hold up, but a large portion of this population are really struggling at this point. >> So, so that's the trigger point for those those higherend investors to come out is if the stock market stops making those new all-time highs. >> That's correct. The the other caveat is something that's already starting to happen, which is housing, right? So, if you're on the higher end and let's say you own a $700, $800,000 home, um, some places that's still low end, but the point being is is you've been used to basically making 50K to 100K on that home for the last few years as prices have just gone up and up and up. At least here in Florida and some places in in the southern states, we're seeing a huge slowdown with prices starting to plummet. And as people look at their net worth, we all think, okay, well, I have X amount in cash, I have X amount in stocks, and oh, look, I'm really wealthy because my home is worth X amount, right? 800,000, a million, whatever it may be. If that number starts to come down, which it is here in the South, and it's starting to stall out in other areas, that will also take a psychological impact on investors and and consumers and start to slow their spending. So when you're looking at this stock market correction, how how deep do you think that could be? >> Yeah, good question. So in the short term, we're looking at probably over the next month. In fact, I have it priced in for about a 10% correction in October. We might have started that today. We might have started that today with this move to the downside. I did want to show you guys something on the QQQ, the NASDAQ 100. There's a trend line here. And I'm a bit, you guys know, I mean, from everything I do, it's all trend lines. none of these fancy like everyone else uses these crazy indicators. I'm like, dude, I just keep it simple, right? But if we look at this on the NASDAQ 100, this is the low from CO. So, it's it's obviously a major low. I mean, it was literally the low from CO, the COVID collapse, and from there, we've gone up except for the bare market in 2022 and the liberation day selloff. If you take that and you stretch it out here, it goes right through this little dip in March of 2022. We bounced there. We broke down. And then look, every time we hit the trend line, we get a decent corrective move. And so the idea is look at where we are now. We're right back to that trend line. So just looking at and mapping this out. From this high to this low, it was a 16% correction. From this high to the COVID low, it was about 25%. You know, it's hard to go out and be like, oh, we're due for a, you know, let's average those and say 20%. And I think that's a little aggressive considering the buy the dip mentality. But could this be the start of a 10% pullback? I think very very likely. And then if things really deteriorate in the economy, we could be looking at a much bigger scenario. Allah.com. And I I do think that you can't overestimate um how bubbleicious AI stocks have gotten to the point where the semiconductor sector, so a sector, just a sector, is now valued at $10 trillion in the US in terms of market cap. That literally would make it if if the semiconductors were a country, they'd be the third biggest country in the world behind the US and China. I mean, it's it's gotten insane at this point. One other thing to point out here is there's a stock OKLO. Um the stock today is up again today. It has run from $66 on September 8th to now $143. This company makes zero revenue. They're just on the process of breaking ground on some nuclear plants. Um generally this is going to be something that's commoditized, meaning it's like an electric electric, you know, grid type thing, but it's getting priced like one of the hottest tech stocks out there. That again is very reminiscent in my early trading years when someone would just add a.com to the end of their company and their stock would go up x you know 200%. Um or something like that. So it's it's very similar where there's the valuations the fundamentals make no sense. Um investors are telling me that this time is different. Every time I hear that I get very nervous because it always ends up not being different even though we think it might be different. Um, and it's just very similar to the dot and that's that's scary. >> It's definitely feeling scary and that's a wild statistic on on the semiconductors there. So, okay, we can see we've got trouble brewing and what I want to bring into this is the Fed and what the reaction there might be. So, of course, last week we had the latest meeting. We got the 25 basis point cut. I believe today we had comments from Powell sounding a little bit um uncertain or cautious on future rate cuts. So, what do you see coming? We often hear that the Fed is slow off the bat. What are your expectations? >> Yeah, the Fed is in such a tough spot right now. So, number one, Powell, you're right. He and he also called out the stock market today, saying that the stock market is very expensive and it's it's actually adding to inflation. That's called the wealth effect. Kind of something I I talked about how it's it's making the consumer spend more because they're feeling so wealthy from looking at their 401k and their investment accounts. But Powell is at a point where he would love to cut rates more, but between tariffs and the stock market, he he doesn't want to see inflation shoot back to 7 8 9% here in the US. And so he has to take it slow because I think the way he looks at it too is that who does inflation affect the most? You know, well, wealthy people who are in the stock market, like even if the stock market drops 10%, wealthy people aren't going to feel it, right? But if inflation goes to let's say 7% or 8 or 9 or 10% everyone who hasn't participated in the rally in the stock market that is already struggling because of inflation they are going to be decimated. And so I think he has to air on the side of caution here. I know everyone in the markets were like oh you know come on cut rates so much so the stock market just keeps going up. He has to really look at it from a bigger what's good for society and and really that is to be a little bit more cautious on cutting rates. Now listen is it going to hurt the economy? Yes, but again it it's it's you know would you rather I mean which one's the better odds here or which one's the better play and it's a tough it's a tough decision. >> Well yeah he is facing a lot of pressure and I think that brings me to another point I wanted to talk to you about which is Fed independence. So we had that question coming increasingly to the floor right now. Is it a big concern for you or how are you factoring that into everything else that's going on? >> Yeah. So I I think you have to factor all of this in, right? have to really factor in the Federal Reserve. You have to factor in tariffs. I mean, one of the things that I think is so wild is that we don't even talk about tariffs anymore. Yet, there's not, in all fairness, there's only a few trade deals that actually got done and it's just been swept under the rug. Um, you have these, you know, hawkish Powell swept under the rug. The markets are now focused on, and this is so weird to see, but we've seen how headlines are now choreographed to come out after potential bad news. So last, just to give you a sense of this, last week we had the Federal Reserve announcing a 25 basis point cut. The person that President Trump put on the the the Fed chair or the Fed governor, he voted for 50 basis points and five more cuts the remainder of the year. Now, obviously, they didn't do that, but Jerome Powell's press conference was very hawkish. The stock market started to sell off, sell off, sell off. We were down about 1% midafternoon after that the comments. And then late in the day, we rallied up. And then the next morning, miraculously, Nvidia announced that they were investing $5 billion in Intel. And the stock market was like, "Oh, we don't even remember what Jerome Powell said." This is great news, right? And so these type of things are starting to happen just to keep the markets propped up. Now, it's great in the short term. The problem is if if it's a hot air situation, you know, that's that's eventually gonna going to collapse. And the other thing just to mention just yesterday we heard that uh Nvidia was going to and we was going to basically invest up to $100 billion in open AI. You know me and the traders in the office we were just kind of like joking like okay so what did he what did he really say here? So the market took it like a hundred billion is going into open AAI but they said up two. So it could be a dollar it could be $100. It could be a million. It could be 10 million but there's no guarantees that they're going to do it. But the stock market took it like, "Oh, this is a done deal." And we went up up and away. And those are major signs of a bubble in the market where investors will just ignore the fine print essentially and just see a move up to the upside and just buy no matter what. >> Yeah. Yeah. The reading comprehension maybe needs some work there. And you know, just on the note of the fast pace of news, another point that I wanted to bring up is the bond market. So there are concerns there earlier in the year and I was reading a headline just today getting ready for this interview that was essentially saying okay well where did all the bond vigilantes go? What's happening there? So any thoughts on that which is another thing that seems to have fallen by the wayside a bit. >> Yes and there's definitely some issues here in the bond market. Right. So what we saw here is a trend line that goes back to 2022 and we broke below it. They did. Interestingly enough, as soon as Powell came out hawkishly, the we saw the 10-year yield rally to the upside and get back above, but it's starting to come back in here. And what I think we're going to see is that there's a new normal for the 10ear, the 20-year, and the 30-year uh yield. Meaning that even if the Fed does, and let's be fair, Powell's out of a job by next May. And whoever is put in there, I they are going to be lowering rates. There's there's no doubt in my mind. I mean, look at look at who who Trump already put on the board. he's ready to cut rates by massive amounts already. But I don't think like even if the Fed cuts their their Fed funds rate to let's say 2%. I actually think the 10-year will stay elevated maybe not at 4%. But maybe at 3 or 3 and a half because more and more countries I mean you know who's going to want to put money in the US when the debt keeps going up and the Fed is no longer independent. And so to to to buy US debt people and I just look at myself, would I buy US debt? Probably not. if I not for 10 years or 20 years or 30 years. I don't think I'm ever getting paid back. And so I would demand a higher interest rate. And we have to remember the Fed does not control the long end of the curve. They only control the short end. So they don't control the 10, the 30, and the 20-year yields. They only control the short end. And so you have to be careful here. This is a this is definitely a risk that to be to be monitored. >> Yeah. Yeah. Just another one of the many risks out there. All right. So we're getting toward the end. And of course, I need to bring up Bitcoin. Again, as you know, this is less my area of expertise, but I know that you watch it so closely. So, price is looking like it it's definitely up from when we last spoke, down from all-time highs. So, looking forward into 202025, where are you seeing the Bitcoin price go? >> Yeah. So, the first thing to take on Bitcoin is that it got rejected off a major level here. There's a trend line that goes back to the all-time high of 2017, which was the bull market high. Then the bull market highs of 2021, then the high in 2024, early 2025. We briefly got above it and we put in a weekly topping tail. And then look at how price went back up and got rejected. That's not good. That to me tells me number one, there could be a head and shoulders pattern forming. The head and shoulders, I'll draw it in for those of you that are watching because I think it helps you guys learn what to look for. But basically, you have your shoulder, you have your head, and then this is a shoulder here. And if you break this neckline right here, the neckline's around 110,000. If that gets broken, then you have essentially a move down below 100,000. And so, I think into year end, not only does the stock market potentially correct 10% or more, but I think Bitcoin's going well below 100,000. Eventually, I think Bitcoin goes a lot higher, just like I love gold longer term, too, but we have to remember Bitcoin generally trades with the market. It's even a leading indicator. Last thing I'll mention here, and this has me on alert for the stock market, is that in 2017, Bitcoin topped out in I believe it was December. The stock market topped out 6 weeks later in January. Um, in 2021, the stock Bitcoin topped out in November. In December, 6 weeks later, um, the stock market topped out. Now, we are just about 6 weeks later from Bitcoin's last all-time high. And even with the stock market making new all-time highs, Bitcoin hasn't. And that's concerning not only for Bitcoin, but also the leading indicator for the stock market. >> Definitely some points for us to watch there. And I'll let you go unless you had any final points that you would leave investors with. >> No, I I've said a lot in this interview. It's a lot to absorb. I get that totally. Um, so I think the key is just be cautious. Everyone else is going to be telling people to, you know, oh, you can't lose in this market. It's a no-brainer. anytime. I've heard that in my 26 years of trading, I I've always when I've listened to it, I've always lost. So, that's a good indicator to be very careful with. Um, it doesn't mean markets can't go a little bit higher, but again, is the risk worth the reward? Is the reward worth the risk? And we have to ask ourselves, at what point do we take a more defensive stance, especially when Powell's even calling out that he is uncomfortable with how high the stock market is. >> Perfect point to end on. So, thank you so much for coming on. Hope to have you back soon. And you have left us with so much to think about. Oh, thank you so much, Charlotte. Honestly, it's awesome to talk to you. Great interview, great questions, and I look forward to our next time. >> Amazing. Well, once again, I'm Charlotte Mloud with investingnews.com and this is Cara Soloway with verifiedinvesting.com. >> Thank you for watching. If you like this video, make sure you hit the like button and subscribe to our channel. We'd also love to hear your thoughts, so leave us a comment below. [Music]
Gareth Soloway: Gold's Next Price Target, Plus Silver and Bitcoin Calls
Summary
Transcript
[Music] I'm Charlotte Mloud with investingnews.com and here here today with me is Gareth Soloway, chief market strategist at verifiedinvesting.com. Thank you so much for being here. Always great to have you. >> Oh, thank you so much, Charlotte. It's great to be back and great to talk markets. There's a lot going on. >> I know people are probably getting tired of hearing me say this to everybody, but it's a perfect time to be talking. And of course, we've got to begin with gold today. So, we are catching up from our conversation back in April. So, so much has happened right now. We are trading either at or near all-time highs for gold depending on where the price is at this moment. So, lots of excitement, but I think people are also feeling okay, do we need to see a correction at this point? So, for gold, what are you seeing in the charts right now? >> Yeah, and that's a great point. So per the charts, we are getting to a point where we're getting extended and I'll bring up my charts to show here. Um, so number one, the the last time one of the last times we talked was right around this all-time high here. And we did see from that point what's called bullish consolidation. And essentially, if we connect these highs and these lows, you get what's called a bullish wedge. And so this was telling us that price had run so much from December of 2024 into April 2025 that it needed to digest the move to gain strength for its next breakout. And sure enough, it broke out recently. And look at what it's done since it broke out. I mean, just straight up vertical move. If you've been a gold bug for a long time, you know that gold tends to not move so vertically. So, in general, it's actually healthy to see it pull back a little bit. And so one of the things I discovered on the charts, and this is really kind of cool, I use parallels to give myself resistance levels. And so what I did here is take the low from 2024 basically when the bull breakout began. If we zoom back out, you can see that in 2021, we went sideways. We kept on hammering on this $2,000 level over and over again, hammering. And then finally in 2024, we broke out. So let's use that low and connect it through the most the lowest point which is right down here right here. All right. And that's in December of 2024. We bring a parallel all the way up to that previous all-time high. And look at what we get. We get the high here and then we had that base of consolidation and look at what we kissed today. And so based on this, this tells me that at least we should go into what we would call a consolidation period or digestion period, which generally is a small pullback on gold as it kind of gets ready for its next move. So I still think there's upside on gold um into next year and beyond, probably as high as $6,000 in this bull run. But you just have to be cognizant that charts very rarely go straight up. And if they do go straight up, they pull back harder. So here in gold situation, let's look for a pullback maybe as low as 3500 and then the next leg to the upside can start. >> Lots of great information and context on gold there and you hit on a couple of points that I was going to ask you about. So I do remember from previous conversations you've got that 6,000 long-term target for gold. I was wondering if we could take a closer look at maybe the next quarter. How how is that looking? How it could play out until the end of 2025? >> Yeah. So, so based on this hit on this trend line, what we're likely to see is that gold will now go into a period of sideways chop, probably pretty similar to what we saw over here, which again, if you're a long-term bull, you don't mind this because it's just digestion. We all like to be paid out fast if we're long gold, but it's healthier to see these kind of sol consolidation periods. And this one lasted from April all the way until basically August before the big move up. And so I think it's very possible we could see in the next quarter something very very similar. And what I like to do is if we just extend this out here and bring this up a little further to look out into the future, I would generally look for sideways chop that could take us back to the previous high. So in technical analysis, what's so fascinating is that once we break out above a previous all-time high, like from April, there's a tendency to want to come back to home base. and home base is the previous high where you saw a lot of consolidation. And so in reality, it would make a lot of sense for gold to just pull back to this level here, this 3500 level, which should be really, really good support. And in all fairness, it could take up to 2 to 3 months. So maybe by end of year, we're still kind of struggling here. But then the positive is it's gathered its strength and can make its next push. And by that point, my guess is this UPS sloping parallel gets closer and closer to 4,000. And I think the next target then is $4,000 an ounce on gold. >> Yeah, definitely. I'm starting to hear more and more about that 4,000 number and it feels it feels quite attainable at this point. So really good to go into that. And what I'm wondering, so when you are doing technical analysis from my understanding, so you're looking at past patterns, you're looking at history and how things play out, but as we get into essentially uncharted territory for gold where we're entering these new all-time highs so frequently, does that impact how how you are looking at the future? >> So when you go to new all-time highs, you're you're essentially in uncharted territory. um it does make it harder to find levels, but that's where you start breaking in these ups sloping trends, right? So on gold, for instance, we have this longerterm parallel which allows us to bring this trend line up and it actually gave us the recent high that we just kind of kissed today on gold. So you don't have as much at your disposal because you don't have as much history in this area. But again, you still can find something. And even when you're in uncharted territory, there's a going to be a pivot point where there's certain amount of buyers that bought and they're happy enough with their gains and they're going to sell into that. And so you will get a pullback. It's up to us as technicians to figure out at new all-time highs, where is that going to be. And again, things like the parallel, the ups sloping or ascending parallel is a great tool for that. Also, fib extensions can work very very well. >> Okay. Okay. So, it's doable. Maybe a little bit tricky, but but still doable. All right. And if we're looking at gold, definitely we've got to take a look over at what's happening with the gold stocks as well. Maybe we can look at GDX, GDXJ, and see how they're looking at this time. If they're mirroring gold or doing something else there. >> Yeah. So, this is such a cool chart because it showcases a principle that I use in technical analysis called as above, so below. And what you have here is a very defined trend line on GDX. It goes back to October of 2024 and then we kind of fell back down here. We made our way back to the trend line. We pulled back. We kind of got back there again, pulled back. We came up right here, pulled back and then broke out. Now, this as above so below technique, essentially what you do is you say, well, what was the furthest I was below this trend line, which is obviously an important trend line in recent history. And really, that would be probably right here, right? This is the the furthest you were away from that trend line when it pulled back here. And if you kind of drag that across, you can see that there's no other real point that was further away. And what you do is you say, "Okay, well, if that was the furthest away to the downside, then my upside target should be equal to that." And what's so cool is that if we take that and we put it right to the line, look at this guys. literally like the high today on GDX went right there and then GDX has started to sell off. And so just like gold is hitting that that upside resistance, you're now looking at downside on GDX cuz it has achieved its target. And it makes sense that if gold's going to pull back a little bit, probably the gold miners will pull back a little as well. Just like with gold, I would be a buyer. Like at some point if this ever pulls back to this orange trend line, I'm buying that though. That would be the buying opportunity. >> That is very cool to look at. And I like that you also highlight the the buying levels there. So that gives us a nice look at what's happening with gold. But of course, we've got to talk about what's happening in silver as well. And I think I remember in previous conversations, you're a little bit less of a fan of silver compared to gold. But we also have silver on the move, making some exciting advances. So how how are you seeing it for silver? What do you think the outlook is? Because it's another one where of course we want to see it move, but we wonder how far can it go at this time. >> Yeah. and silver silver has broken out and so it granted it did go into some resistance. I'll discuss that. But until it broke out, I was a skeptic just because again, if the economy is weakening and it's partially an industrial metal, you know, those are all things. But ultimately, when gold, I mean, think about this. Gold gets so extended away uh from silver that eventually it pulls silver behind it. Um, and I think that's really what we've seen here lately. But one of the things I love to show here is that you had this kind of UPS sloping trend line here. And you can see that essentially every time we would hit this line, and you can see it right here. I'm going to use a little directional signal. So here and right here, and all along this area, we just kept on getting rejected. Finally, they got us above and that's where we've gotten this beautiful run. So now we did come into a resistance at $44 per ounce. The resistance here comes from a pivot high in 2011 right here. And and this was the second highest high, right? And so this was in August of 2011. So just on a technical analysis basis, this gives us a point where after this really good silver run, it should take a breather. But I actually am bullish now on silver after we take that breather. I do think it's destined to get back to that $50 level, which was the high in 2011. Technically just below 50. And I actually think eventually it's going to go higher than 50. But it but in the meantime, look for consolidation, small pullback here at 44 and then eventually a breakout in the next couple months towards that $50 level. >> Okay. Okay. So, if you're feeling a little bit more bullish on silver at this point after after we see that correction, how are you how high do you think it could go in the future? Are you are you a triple digit silver kind of person or how are you feeling? Yeah. So on silver I'm not triple for and then again this is the next 6 to 12 months. Um so keep in mind if you know if we talk about where this is in 5 or 10 years that's a different story but just in let's say 6 to 12 months. Um what I've done here is basically say okay well if we have let's use our parallel again just like it just predicted that gold move. If we zoom out to our monthly chart and we go back to the low of the last bull run which started basically in 2001 2002 and then topped out in 2011 and then to this low here right right through these levels and let's draw that trend line in. All right so we can see here that essentially we have a point where every pullback pullback pullback kind of chops around this this one outlier right here where we dipped below that was the COVID collapse. And so I I refer to that one as an outlier because it was just all out panic. We saw oil at that time oil actually went negative. The current month contract was like negative $40. They were actually paying you to buy oil at that point or to take oil. Now granted, you had to figure out where to store thousands of barrels of oil because if you were going to buy it, that's what you had to do. But the point being is that notice how it reestablishes right here. And so what then I we want to do is we want to say okay well in this bull run if we drag this up to our previous high which was the 2011 high where does that parallel extend out to and it goes to 60 bucks and so for me at least in the next 6 to 12 months I would say there's almost 50% upside on silver here uh to about a $60 handle. >> Yeah I think that sounds pretty reasonable on the silver side. And just briefly because we're talking about precious metals, I want to bring up platinum as well because I kind of see it as a similarish situation to silver where it was moving sideways, sideways, sideways for years and the market was in deficit and now finally we're seeing that that breakout. So when you look at it from a technical perspective, what are you seeing for platinum? >> All right, so platinum is an interesting one here. So let's jump into the platinum chart here. So number one, platinum is up into a resistance level. So while we've seen silver break out, we've seen gold break out, platinum is still struggling at this up ascending trend line. And you can see again, you're taking your biggest pivot top here from 2016 to your secondary pivot high in 2021. And what's so interesting is we hit it over here in July. We had a big pullback and now it's reattacking. But even today, it pierced the line and it's pulled back. And so for me, for me to get really bullish on platinum, I need to see a break above basically 1500. If it breaks 1500, this is going to have legs like silver. And you're probably looking at around 18 to,900, maybe eventually 2,300. But for me as a technician on the charts, as a trader, I need to see it get above 1500 before I really say, "Okay, it's game on here. This should make a bigger run." >> Yeah. Yeah. Fair enough. Okay. Glad that we went into that one and and through all the precious or most of the precious metals. I want to take a step back because of course especially for gold it's good to take a broader look at what's happening in the world. And where I want to begin here is check in with you on the health of the US economy right now because it has been months since we spoke. What are you seeing? Yeah. So, you know, we continue to see a US labor market that is weakening. Um, the markets, the stock market itself is absolutely ignoring it, but that's very normal. And I'll throw up the S&P chart here just to kind of show you guys what we're seeing here. So, the S&P is just coming off all-time highs. It's down a little bit today, but for the most part, the economy is weakening. You've had this bigger and bigger divergence between the halves and the have nots. And I'm sure a lot of viewers out there can appreciate what I'm going to say here is that if you've been an investor and you have a lot of money invested, you're weathering inflation. Couldn't care less about X, Y, and Z. You're fine with home prices where they are. You probably have a home and prices have gone up substantially. Everyone else, even some of the middle class, is getting left behind, and they're really struggling. Some stats that really are shocking. You know, we have credit card delinquencies of 90 days or greater. It's now as high as it was in the great recession financial crisis. Um, buy now pay pay later. We've heard about buy now pay later. 25% of the people using buy now pay later are using it to buy groceries. And that's just not a good thing, right? That is not a healthy thing. Now, listen, the high-end, they're still buying their Ferrari, right? I mean, the stock market keeps making all-time highs. Um, Bezos keeps building more yachts, right? I mean, all these type of things. But o over time this as soon as the stock market starts to have a correction where we don't make new highs in a month or two months the economy is at a pivot point where where it will slip very quickly. You're going to see then the high-end consumers start to pull back and that is the last straw for this economy. So I do think that again um we're teetering um as long as the stock market makes new all-time highs almost daily. Okay. the the economy itself, the GDP numbers can hold up, but a large portion of this population are really struggling at this point. >> So, so that's the trigger point for those those higherend investors to come out is if the stock market stops making those new all-time highs. >> That's correct. The the other caveat is something that's already starting to happen, which is housing, right? So, if you're on the higher end and let's say you own a $700, $800,000 home, um, some places that's still low end, but the point being is is you've been used to basically making 50K to 100K on that home for the last few years as prices have just gone up and up and up. At least here in Florida and some places in in the southern states, we're seeing a huge slowdown with prices starting to plummet. And as people look at their net worth, we all think, okay, well, I have X amount in cash, I have X amount in stocks, and oh, look, I'm really wealthy because my home is worth X amount, right? 800,000, a million, whatever it may be. If that number starts to come down, which it is here in the South, and it's starting to stall out in other areas, that will also take a psychological impact on investors and and consumers and start to slow their spending. So when you're looking at this stock market correction, how how deep do you think that could be? >> Yeah, good question. So in the short term, we're looking at probably over the next month. In fact, I have it priced in for about a 10% correction in October. We might have started that today. We might have started that today with this move to the downside. I did want to show you guys something on the QQQ, the NASDAQ 100. There's a trend line here. And I'm a bit, you guys know, I mean, from everything I do, it's all trend lines. none of these fancy like everyone else uses these crazy indicators. I'm like, dude, I just keep it simple, right? But if we look at this on the NASDAQ 100, this is the low from CO. So, it's it's obviously a major low. I mean, it was literally the low from CO, the COVID collapse, and from there, we've gone up except for the bare market in 2022 and the liberation day selloff. If you take that and you stretch it out here, it goes right through this little dip in March of 2022. We bounced there. We broke down. And then look, every time we hit the trend line, we get a decent corrective move. And so the idea is look at where we are now. We're right back to that trend line. So just looking at and mapping this out. From this high to this low, it was a 16% correction. From this high to the COVID low, it was about 25%. You know, it's hard to go out and be like, oh, we're due for a, you know, let's average those and say 20%. And I think that's a little aggressive considering the buy the dip mentality. But could this be the start of a 10% pullback? I think very very likely. And then if things really deteriorate in the economy, we could be looking at a much bigger scenario. Allah.com. And I I do think that you can't overestimate um how bubbleicious AI stocks have gotten to the point where the semiconductor sector, so a sector, just a sector, is now valued at $10 trillion in the US in terms of market cap. That literally would make it if if the semiconductors were a country, they'd be the third biggest country in the world behind the US and China. I mean, it's it's gotten insane at this point. One other thing to point out here is there's a stock OKLO. Um the stock today is up again today. It has run from $66 on September 8th to now $143. This company makes zero revenue. They're just on the process of breaking ground on some nuclear plants. Um generally this is going to be something that's commoditized, meaning it's like an electric electric, you know, grid type thing, but it's getting priced like one of the hottest tech stocks out there. That again is very reminiscent in my early trading years when someone would just add a.com to the end of their company and their stock would go up x you know 200%. Um or something like that. So it's it's very similar where there's the valuations the fundamentals make no sense. Um investors are telling me that this time is different. Every time I hear that I get very nervous because it always ends up not being different even though we think it might be different. Um, and it's just very similar to the dot and that's that's scary. >> It's definitely feeling scary and that's a wild statistic on on the semiconductors there. So, okay, we can see we've got trouble brewing and what I want to bring into this is the Fed and what the reaction there might be. So, of course, last week we had the latest meeting. We got the 25 basis point cut. I believe today we had comments from Powell sounding a little bit um uncertain or cautious on future rate cuts. So, what do you see coming? We often hear that the Fed is slow off the bat. What are your expectations? >> Yeah, the Fed is in such a tough spot right now. So, number one, Powell, you're right. He and he also called out the stock market today, saying that the stock market is very expensive and it's it's actually adding to inflation. That's called the wealth effect. Kind of something I I talked about how it's it's making the consumer spend more because they're feeling so wealthy from looking at their 401k and their investment accounts. But Powell is at a point where he would love to cut rates more, but between tariffs and the stock market, he he doesn't want to see inflation shoot back to 7 8 9% here in the US. And so he has to take it slow because I think the way he looks at it too is that who does inflation affect the most? You know, well, wealthy people who are in the stock market, like even if the stock market drops 10%, wealthy people aren't going to feel it, right? But if inflation goes to let's say 7% or 8 or 9 or 10% everyone who hasn't participated in the rally in the stock market that is already struggling because of inflation they are going to be decimated. And so I think he has to air on the side of caution here. I know everyone in the markets were like oh you know come on cut rates so much so the stock market just keeps going up. He has to really look at it from a bigger what's good for society and and really that is to be a little bit more cautious on cutting rates. Now listen is it going to hurt the economy? Yes, but again it it's it's you know would you rather I mean which one's the better odds here or which one's the better play and it's a tough it's a tough decision. >> Well yeah he is facing a lot of pressure and I think that brings me to another point I wanted to talk to you about which is Fed independence. So we had that question coming increasingly to the floor right now. Is it a big concern for you or how are you factoring that into everything else that's going on? >> Yeah. So I I think you have to factor all of this in, right? have to really factor in the Federal Reserve. You have to factor in tariffs. I mean, one of the things that I think is so wild is that we don't even talk about tariffs anymore. Yet, there's not, in all fairness, there's only a few trade deals that actually got done and it's just been swept under the rug. Um, you have these, you know, hawkish Powell swept under the rug. The markets are now focused on, and this is so weird to see, but we've seen how headlines are now choreographed to come out after potential bad news. So last, just to give you a sense of this, last week we had the Federal Reserve announcing a 25 basis point cut. The person that President Trump put on the the the Fed chair or the Fed governor, he voted for 50 basis points and five more cuts the remainder of the year. Now, obviously, they didn't do that, but Jerome Powell's press conference was very hawkish. The stock market started to sell off, sell off, sell off. We were down about 1% midafternoon after that the comments. And then late in the day, we rallied up. And then the next morning, miraculously, Nvidia announced that they were investing $5 billion in Intel. And the stock market was like, "Oh, we don't even remember what Jerome Powell said." This is great news, right? And so these type of things are starting to happen just to keep the markets propped up. Now, it's great in the short term. The problem is if if it's a hot air situation, you know, that's that's eventually gonna going to collapse. And the other thing just to mention just yesterday we heard that uh Nvidia was going to and we was going to basically invest up to $100 billion in open AI. You know me and the traders in the office we were just kind of like joking like okay so what did he what did he really say here? So the market took it like a hundred billion is going into open AAI but they said up two. So it could be a dollar it could be $100. It could be a million. It could be 10 million but there's no guarantees that they're going to do it. But the stock market took it like, "Oh, this is a done deal." And we went up up and away. And those are major signs of a bubble in the market where investors will just ignore the fine print essentially and just see a move up to the upside and just buy no matter what. >> Yeah. Yeah. The reading comprehension maybe needs some work there. And you know, just on the note of the fast pace of news, another point that I wanted to bring up is the bond market. So there are concerns there earlier in the year and I was reading a headline just today getting ready for this interview that was essentially saying okay well where did all the bond vigilantes go? What's happening there? So any thoughts on that which is another thing that seems to have fallen by the wayside a bit. >> Yes and there's definitely some issues here in the bond market. Right. So what we saw here is a trend line that goes back to 2022 and we broke below it. They did. Interestingly enough, as soon as Powell came out hawkishly, the we saw the 10-year yield rally to the upside and get back above, but it's starting to come back in here. And what I think we're going to see is that there's a new normal for the 10ear, the 20-year, and the 30-year uh yield. Meaning that even if the Fed does, and let's be fair, Powell's out of a job by next May. And whoever is put in there, I they are going to be lowering rates. There's there's no doubt in my mind. I mean, look at look at who who Trump already put on the board. he's ready to cut rates by massive amounts already. But I don't think like even if the Fed cuts their their Fed funds rate to let's say 2%. I actually think the 10-year will stay elevated maybe not at 4%. But maybe at 3 or 3 and a half because more and more countries I mean you know who's going to want to put money in the US when the debt keeps going up and the Fed is no longer independent. And so to to to buy US debt people and I just look at myself, would I buy US debt? Probably not. if I not for 10 years or 20 years or 30 years. I don't think I'm ever getting paid back. And so I would demand a higher interest rate. And we have to remember the Fed does not control the long end of the curve. They only control the short end. So they don't control the 10, the 30, and the 20-year yields. They only control the short end. And so you have to be careful here. This is a this is definitely a risk that to be to be monitored. >> Yeah. Yeah. Just another one of the many risks out there. All right. So we're getting toward the end. And of course, I need to bring up Bitcoin. Again, as you know, this is less my area of expertise, but I know that you watch it so closely. So, price is looking like it it's definitely up from when we last spoke, down from all-time highs. So, looking forward into 202025, where are you seeing the Bitcoin price go? >> Yeah. So, the first thing to take on Bitcoin is that it got rejected off a major level here. There's a trend line that goes back to the all-time high of 2017, which was the bull market high. Then the bull market highs of 2021, then the high in 2024, early 2025. We briefly got above it and we put in a weekly topping tail. And then look at how price went back up and got rejected. That's not good. That to me tells me number one, there could be a head and shoulders pattern forming. The head and shoulders, I'll draw it in for those of you that are watching because I think it helps you guys learn what to look for. But basically, you have your shoulder, you have your head, and then this is a shoulder here. And if you break this neckline right here, the neckline's around 110,000. If that gets broken, then you have essentially a move down below 100,000. And so, I think into year end, not only does the stock market potentially correct 10% or more, but I think Bitcoin's going well below 100,000. Eventually, I think Bitcoin goes a lot higher, just like I love gold longer term, too, but we have to remember Bitcoin generally trades with the market. It's even a leading indicator. Last thing I'll mention here, and this has me on alert for the stock market, is that in 2017, Bitcoin topped out in I believe it was December. The stock market topped out 6 weeks later in January. Um, in 2021, the stock Bitcoin topped out in November. In December, 6 weeks later, um, the stock market topped out. Now, we are just about 6 weeks later from Bitcoin's last all-time high. And even with the stock market making new all-time highs, Bitcoin hasn't. And that's concerning not only for Bitcoin, but also the leading indicator for the stock market. >> Definitely some points for us to watch there. And I'll let you go unless you had any final points that you would leave investors with. >> No, I I've said a lot in this interview. It's a lot to absorb. I get that totally. Um, so I think the key is just be cautious. Everyone else is going to be telling people to, you know, oh, you can't lose in this market. It's a no-brainer. anytime. I've heard that in my 26 years of trading, I I've always when I've listened to it, I've always lost. So, that's a good indicator to be very careful with. Um, it doesn't mean markets can't go a little bit higher, but again, is the risk worth the reward? Is the reward worth the risk? And we have to ask ourselves, at what point do we take a more defensive stance, especially when Powell's even calling out that he is uncomfortable with how high the stock market is. >> Perfect point to end on. So, thank you so much for coming on. Hope to have you back soon. And you have left us with so much to think about. Oh, thank you so much, Charlotte. Honestly, it's awesome to talk to you. Great interview, great questions, and I look forward to our next time. >> Amazing. Well, once again, I'm Charlotte Mloud with investingnews.com and this is Cara Soloway with verifiedinvesting.com. >> Thank you for watching. If you like this video, make sure you hit the like button and subscribe to our channel. We'd also love to hear your thoughts, so leave us a comment below. [Music]