Ed Steer: Silver Rally Now Unstoppable, Price to Hit Triple Digits
Summary
Silver Market Dynamics: Ed Steer emphasizes the ongoing structural deficit in the silver market, with demand consistently outpacing supply for nearly six years, leading to a significant price rally.
Commercial Traders' Short Positions: Large commercial traders, particularly bullion banks, remain heavily short on silver, with positions exceeding $60 billion, contributing to price suppression efforts.
Global Silver Demand: There is voracious demand for silver, notably from India and various ETFs, with significant amounts being transferred from New York to London and Shanghai, indicating a robust global appetite.
Price Projections: Steer predicts that silver prices could reach triple digits due to the structural deficit and increased demand, with potential for silver to become as valuable as gold in the future.
Investment Strategy: Steer advises investors to prioritize physical silver acquisition and consider diversified investments in silver stocks, recommending funds like Ninepoint Silver Equities Fund and SILJ for broader exposure.
Geopolitical Shifts: The shift of economic power from the West to the East, particularly the influence of China and the BRICS nations, is expected to impact silver pricing dynamics, with Shanghai potentially becoming a key pricing hub.
Precious Metals Outlook: The podcast underscores a bullish outlook for precious metals, including gold, platinum, and palladium, with expectations of higher prices driven by increasing demand and potential supply constraints.
Transcript
[Music] I'm Charlotte Mloud with investingnews.com and here today with me is Ed Steer of Ed Steer's Gold and Silver Digest. He writes a daily column. He's been in the precious metal space for 25 years and he's also on the board of directors for the Gold Antitrust Action Committee. Thank you so much for being here. Great to have you back after a very long time. >> Yes, it's been a while, Charlotte. And I'm glad to be back. happy to have you here today. We've got so much happening in the precious metals space, especially when it comes to silver, and I thought you would be the right person to help people understand what's going on. So, when it comes to silver, I know we're in a a down day today for the metal, but overall looking at 2025, it's been a record setting year. And before we get into what's happening with the price being down today, I was wondering if you could go over the key factors that have allowed it to get past that $50 level and beyond this year, cuz I'm sure you you're seeing a lot going on. >> Oh, well, you know, it all boils down to one thing. Well, two things actually. The last time we spoke was like 10 or more years ago. And at the time I told you that there were eight large commercial traders, most of them bullion banks and investment houses that were mega short the precious metals. That was true then. That is even more true today cuz they've been shorting this rally all the way up. And they haven't gone away. And then you can see the results of their bare raids on Friday, again on Tuesday, and again today. I mean, they're just trying to get to cover as many short positions as they can. They're stuck on the short side to the tune of I don't know 60 plus billion dollars. That's what the shorts are on the short side. And of course the bullion banks are are short a huge chunk of that. And there's no way they're ever going to get out of it. It was the same 10 plus years ago and it hasn't changed today. And uh what they're doing right now is they're just trying to cover as many shorts as they can and before the next leg up in the price and that's uh imminent. The other thing that's the most important right now of course is the ongoing structural deficit in silver. Uh according to the silver institute we're what almost we're well into almost 6 years into a structural deficit where we're consuming far more than we're using and it's like 100 200 million ounces or whatever figure you want to believe. And the fact of the matter is you know London had a meltdown. They just ran out of silver and uh you know everybody knows everybody in this dog out there in in the silver land knows that we have this structural deficit and finally these crooked commercial traders the bullion banks at hell are finally allowing the price to rise to reflect the tax that uh you know we were in a structural deficit you know and we're sitting at what $48 an ounce today I mean it was 53 last week but In reality, it should be silver price should be well into the triple triple digits by now and uh within this within a very short period of time in my opinion. It we're going to be there sooner or later. But uh you know this this price management scheme has been going on ever since Nixon took us off the gold exchange standard back in August of 1971. And finally um our day in the sun as far as silver goes and gold goes and all the other precious metals. It's finally here because everything's up big on the year including the silver shares or what which are up I don't know 130% even I think the s even though silver's down today the silver shares are are actually up on the day and so you know we're up 140% in the silver shares and up 138% in the gold shares. So, you know, this bull market is just getting started and it's, you know, we have shortages in silver and also in platinum and platium and I wouldn't be surprised considering the huge amount of investment money that's going into gold and all the positive stories that are coming out about gold about you got to add it to your portfolios like I think it was Morgan Stanley said you got you know their their model now is 60 2020 20 and even Jamie Diamond came out and said you got to buy this stuff. This is now an unstoppable rally and I'm sure that the reason we got uh kicked downstairs in the price is cuz the bullion banks are trying to get out before we see the next leg up and uh this bull market has got a long long way to go. >> Well, this is a really great overview of the situation. So, thank you for going into that and it's so interesting to see those themes that we talked about so long ago playing out today. I'm wondering if you can talk a little bit more about the situation in London because I've been hearing a lot about the lack of liquidity there and the movement of silver from New York over to London after it went the opposite direction earlier in the year. So, I think investors have a lot of questions. Anything further that you would elucidate there? >> Oh, sure. Absolutely. This is something I keep religious track of and let me just pull up something on my computer screen here. Yeah, I I track the numbers every day and as you as you correctly pointed out, there's been silver flying from u uh the comx in New York over to London. So far this month, uh the last 10 days when it really started to pick up uh 30.8 million ounces has been flown flown uh uh with a one-way ticket. And then also there's a Shanghai futures exchange. Um, I keep religious track of that. In the And in the last eight business days, let me see what have I got here. During the last eight business days, there have been 15.348 million ounces. That's 477 tons of silver withdrawn from them. And that's probably also in London by now as well. And that's not the only besides Cocomx and Shanghai. There's a huge amount of silver being shipped out of Switzerland. They have they have pretty hefty inventories there as well. And they only report their data once a month. And we won't see their October data for about another I would say another month from now. I think it's about the third week cuz I just got their their um their September data now. So it'll be another month we see their October data. But the fact of the matter is the demand for physical silver is voracious. just absolutely voracious. Um I think it was Phil Baker who used to be the CEO of Heckler Mining and also the president and chairman of the Silver Institute did a video interview um oh about 6 weeks ago now where he said silver demand is what he quote quote unquote rapacious. and he said that we need far far higher silver prices to uh to close this gap between supply and demand. And he's 100% correct about that as far as I'm concerned. And when I heard him say that, that guy with his position because he's a swamp creature through and through, you know, um when people like that are coming out and telling you that that is a fair warning to the entire planet that we are going to see three tripledigit silver price. As a matter of fact, I got Keith Newer's triple three three tripledigit t-shirt on right now and uh that day is coming and Phil Baker spelled it out for us in full. So, uh, it's just a matter of waiting and seeing, but the silver demand is absolutely unbelievable from wherever you care to look. >> Well, I wish we could see the the t-shirt, but that that's all right. We can we can imagine it. I think it's very appropriate for right now. And so, talking about this rapacious demand for silver, can you say a little bit more about where you're seeing that come from exactly at the moment? >> Uh, the most obvious demand is is coming from India. I think they imported 22 million ounces. Was it last month or the month before? I can't remember. Uh they're um I I'm supposed to be I should look at their quick estimates for September um and see what they what they imported in September, but I have I should have done that before you uh before I went on the show, but I haven't got the information. But the demand from India is unbelievable. the but the amount of silver going into the SLV and all the other silver ETFs like SPAT etc etc is absolutely horrendous and you know the world only produces what 2.2458 2458 is if my memory is million ounces of silver per day that's all that comes that's all the production we got so when you see 22 million ounces of silver going from going for into India in one month that's 100 days worth of silver production or is it 122 million ounces yeah that's 100 that's about 100 something it's a large amount of silver okay huge 10 days worth of silver reduction So it's a huge amount and when you start to see chunks like that disappear into India where Turkey had a big import month last month uh and all the ETFs and of course uh there's retail bullion demand which has been comeos for the last 6 months it's been just awful. I mean this everybody was just buying the stuff back from c customers they just sold it to because the price wasn't doing anything. But I've been in contact with two two bullion dealers in the last 12 hours and they just the stuff is just flying off the shelf. There's unprecedented demand in the retail sector right now. So they have problems with supply. I mean they're um they have decent inventory now, but the they say right now that uh their the their mints and and the refiners are just backed right up. So, you know, this I used to work in the retail industry for four years part-time and I can tell you right now the supply chain from between the refiner and the retailer is 50 m 50 mi across, but it's only about an inch deep. So it doesn't take any huge amount of demand. 2 or 3 weeks at the most and all of a sudden you're a out of inventory and b looking 2 3 4 months down the road before you get any more. And uh we're heading in that direction right now. And everybody's buying this dip whether it be the shares like I said silver shares which are up on the day now even though silver is down and the demand ever since they killed the price by what $45 is off the root off the charts. And like I said in my column today, you know what the the the bullion banks did literally on Friday, Tuesday and today is they put gold and silver on sale and the Far East is gobbling this up like you wouldn't believe. It's Dewali in India. It's their biggest festival of the year and the biggest wedding season. And all of a sudden you mark gold down five or 6% and silver down 8 or 10%. They're going to be buying this stuff with both hands. And trust me, so even though the boys managed to beat the price tone, all they did was ignite this what what we just discussed was rapacious demand. So no matter what they do, I mean the demand is just going to eat them alive. You know, whether in the short term or the long term, one way or another, uh we're going to run into a supply demand brick wall. And when that day happens, we could see triple doubledigit silver prices in a very very short period of time. definitely feels like that is becoming closer and you touched on a number of factors that I wanted to follow up on. So, one of them was shortages for silver. It sounds like we're getting closer to the moment where it could be very hard to to attain. And the other point I wanted to bring up, so when people are buying all this silver, is that in response to they see the gold price is very high, silver is a more affordable option, is it more to do with silver's qualities on its own? How how are you seeing it? >> It's a combination of all of those things, Charlotte. Um, first of all, you know, like I said, I I was in the retail bullion business for four years. And you know, people come in and they want to buy something and even with gold at $500 an ounce cuz I remember those days and sorry I didn't buy more. Okay? you know, you get $500, you get a little coin about yay bigger around or you can buy 90 ounces of silver, which is far bigger, you know, and uh you know, they're both bright shiny objects. Okay? And you know, you look at 90 of those bright shiny objects compared to one of those little gold shiny objects and you see, you know, tell you what, I think I'll take the 90 bright shiny object cuz people get more for their money. And the other thing, of course, now is everybody knows the supply demand situation, okay? That's where they're buying the snot out of this stuff right now. And the other thing as other people have said and I said in my column, I think it was on Saturday, you know, silver has already become the new gold. >> Yeah, I think we can we can definitely see that that that shift is happening there. So I >> and Charlotte Charlotte Charlotte's going to get even worse as time goes on because you know we're going to see gold what's it 4,000 now once it hit 5,000 or whatever even at silver at 100 or $120 an ounce or 150 or 200 cuz I figure it's going to be $200 to $400 an ounce at least before this is all over. And uh and I'm Hey, you're old enough to remember when silver was $400 an ounce. I mean gold was $400 an ounce. Now, silver is going to be selling for the same amount. But here's the thing that people don't can't can't visualize as when silver blows skyhigh, and it will someday when the when the powers that be decide they're going to take their foot off the price, the thing is that it will not be available at any price. You can go to any bullion store, it will just not be there. The wait times for silver, you know, uh, as some people call, they call it, at some point it will become unoptanium. And that day is coming. Trust me. >> Well, again, many many directions we can go here. I'll I'll ask if we have silver going to $200 to $400 an ounce potentially. In your mind, do you have an idea of where gold would be with silver at those levels? >> Yeah. I don't know. You know the thing is that you have to look back what you know when you and I first were interviewed me like 10 plus years ago. You know I said that you know this is the work of silver analyst Ted Butler and Gatada going back like 25 30 40 years in the case of Ted and we have never seen what the true free market price of gold and silver are because gold has always been fixed. First it was 20 bucks an ounce, then it was $42 an ounce. And they finally let the price out, you know, out in 1973, I think gold became legal in the United States again. And then 1975, the COMX started trading paper gold futures. So, you know, and then the bullion banks have been sitting on the price ever since. We have no idea what the true price of gold is or what silver is because they've never been allowed to trade freely in anybody's lifetime, including mine. Okay. And so we just don't know. So if you're asking me what gold's going to trade at, what silver's going to trade at, I have no idea. But I can give you a hint. Uh right now the gold silver ratio is about 82 to1. Gold comes out of the ground at 7 oz. There's 7 ounces of silver produced for every ounce of gold. Okay? And everybody says, you know, the normal ratio throughout of all recorded history is 15 to1 or 40 to1. And I think that someday, okay, with this shortage becomes really acute, you're going to see it close trading close to 7 ounce 7 to one again. So whatever the gold price is, you divide that by seven or even 10 if you want to be generous. And we're looking at just an absolute fantastic number for silver. So, um, who knows if they ever allowed to trade freely without futures and options attached to them, then we'll find out for sure because, uh, I can right now I can tell you that gold and silver should be priced fantastically higher than they are now. >> We are, it would be uncharted territory. So, very hard to say what could actually happen. And I'm wondering if you can talk a little bit more about how we're seeing the price perform today. So, we mentioned it's it's a down day for silver and I think you'd said that banks have their their foot on the price right now and as you're also saying if they take their foot off, who knows what could happen? And I think people people look at it and maybe they they struggle with this. They wonder, all right, how do we know this isn't the end of the the current rise that we're seeing? How do we know that something like that is going to happen in the future? So, curious to know what you would say to people who have these questions. >> Okay. You know, gold's down what? $33 and silver's down 36 cents. They're well off their engineered low ticks that after the GlobeEx opened in New York yesterday evening. But the thing is, you have to look at a you have to pull out and look at the macro picture. Things are a lot different now than they were say 10 years ago. What we're having we're seeing now in in in the overall is the decline of Western civilization, business, whatever you want to call it. The west collectively including us here in Canada, United States, Europe da we are in decline. The east is in ascension especially China okay with India and uh other countries and Russia not far behind. The thing is that, you know, we're done, okay? And there's a whole new there's a new kid on the block and they're called the Bricks Plus and their presence is being felt out there right now. And we're just seeing it slip from the west to the east. We're selling paper and they're buying the actual physical metal. And sooner or later, uh, they will take control of the price most likely in Shanghai cuz it's a pure physical market, not paper like it is in New York where the price is set in the price will be set in Shanghai. And it's all a physical market. There's no paper there whatsoever. So if you're you look at the price today, it's irrelevant what the price is today. You look at the big picture and look at the fact that the bricks plus have become an absolutely awesome juggernaut and it's absolutely unstoppable. And as we shift from one from the west to the east as this continues economically, financially, uh it's impossible to say where this is going to end up. But what we're we're living right now is we're living through a a major major shift in financial uh power from one sector to from one area of the world to another and we're going to be they're going to be writing about this a thousand years from now. So we're living through history. >> Yeah. I think I'm also seeing a lot of questions right now when it comes to silver especially people wondering is this time different? We've seen silver get to this $50 level a couple of times in the past and it sounds like yes it is. It is actually different this time. I'm wondering if you can say a little bit more about the the role of China in what we're seeing going on right now. I've heard a lot about China, especially when it comes to the growing influence over the gold market. So, anything that you're paying particular attention to there? >> Oh, yeah. Just about everything China related. They're the number two silver producer in the world after is it Mexico or Peru? I can't remember which country. Anyway, they're the number two silver producer. They're also the number one silver user. They also import a lot of silver. Uh the stories are out there from you know over the last couple of years they're running all over South and Central America buying up as many much Dory bar and as concentrate as they can. And I've been that's been confirmed to me by some of the miners in the industry and I won't say who they are cuz they told me not to mention but the reason that they're buying this stuff up is a cuz they want to control the price sooner or later. And secondly, they were trying to drain the the North American smelters from product. So they didn't have enough to smell. So this is a huge game. So you know it's they they control absolutely everything silver related and except for the price right now. So you know they're they're they also export a fair amount of silver too. But and you know I keep track of that as well. Like I said, the Shanghai Futures Exchange, they they've shipped out what's 15 million ounces so far in the last 8 days, and their stocks of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the Shanghai Gold Exchange are the lowest they've been since 2016 as of as of today. Uh if they keep this up, they're going to have almost no silver at all left in those two particular areas. So, you know, silver is being drained worldwide out of Switzerland, out of out of New York and out of Shanghai. Um, but Shanghai is where it's going to be at. Like I said, they're the number one silver user and the number two producer. They they mine more than they produce and sooner or later they're going to control the price for that too. So, China, India, the rise of the bricks, especially China and India, Indonesia and u all the other places over there, Vietnam. Um, no, it's it's China that that's the number one uh country that we should be looking at right now. And, uh, sooner or later they'll be controlling the price, too. And when they do, it'll it's going to be a three-digit number by that time. >> Does the same go for platinum and palladium? Are they also of interest to the east? I'll tell you what, you know, these platinum and platium uh are really fringe metals and I'm looking at platinum right now and it's up $86 today, which I think is short covering, but the short positions in them are just as grotesque. Uh especially platinum. Platium actually the banks are actually net long palladium if you can believe it by a small amount. So um these are really niche markets. Platinum and platium are both basically um industrial metals. Platinum of course has got some jewelry applications and there was a big spike up and it was you know they've risen up an awful lot too and there was big demand in China and Japan and the thing is these are dinky little markets and the platinum institute has come out in the last what year or so and said they're now in a structural deficit in these as well where they're using up way more above ground inventory than is available and of course that's coming out of all the platinum and plating ETFs. So, you know, we have structure because we've had so prices have been suppressed for so long in the last 50 plus years that the prices of everything are far lower than they should be. And uh you know that sooner or later the demand is going to pick up and it's going to put us in a supply demand deficit. The silver deficit is the one that everybody knows about. But it equally applies to platinum. It equally applies to palladium. And although you don't see it in gold yet, I can guarantee you that sooner or later, probably sooner rather than later, we're going to see a supply demand deficit in it as well. And the reason for that is, you know, I watch what's going into the various gold ETFs and it's picked up hugely in the last month. And the other thing that's happening is that I watch every day is the um the deliveries on the Chicago Merkantile Exchange. Um the amount of gold that's being demanded for immediate delivery immediate delivery now is you know off the charts. Silver is in backwardation right now which means it's it's more expensive to buy it. People want it now and they're prepared to pay more to have it right now than wait for December or March deliveries and the chances they're not going to get it. And gold is the same thing. I think it was 4,000 contracts delivered yesterday and 2,000 the day before and 3,000 before that. This is demand for immediate delivery. They're not waiting until December or February. They want it in their hand now. So, the demand, you know, we we use the word rapacious for silver. Well, I'll tell you what, it's just about the same in gold and sooner or later we're going to be in a deficit in that as well. And uh uh it's like, you know, we discussed before, it's impossible to say how this is all going to shake out. But one thing that's absolutely guaranteed that and we like you said, you hate to use the expression it's different this time, but the fact of the matter is it is different this time. So when this clear, when the smoke clears on this, whether it be in a month or two months or 6 months or a year, you know, we're going to see fantastically higher prices, not only in the precious metals, but in a lot of other commodities as well. >> Definitely sums it up. And I don't want to keep you overly long, but before I let you go, I did want to ask, so for investors who are looking at this situation or maybe they're maybe they've been in the space for a while, maybe they're just coming to it, any any thoughts on how they may want to approach it? Of course, you should have your gold and silver if you don't already. For people who might want to add or get into it for the first time, what would be the best way to do that? And should people be considering mining stocks? How how are you thinking about it right now? >> Okay, first of I've been all in on the precious metals for about the last 15 years. Every penny I own is in physical metal or in precious metal stocks, mostly silver stocks. Okay? But the first thing if you're getting into this for the first time, the first thing you have to do is get on the horn to your local bullion dealer, the one you got in in your city or the one you could find on the internet that's in your country, and get your hands on some physical. You have to have physical first. 1 oz rounds, 5 oz bars, 10 oz bars, half kilo kilos, whatever you can get your hands on. But buy that first and uh you know I have a very large position in physical because I've been buying this stuff since what 1998. So you know I have a fair position. I'm also have a huge position in the in the silver stocks. And this is a sector that if you're a newbie to it, even if you're experienced, but if you're a newbie, for sure, you do not rifle shoot this sector, you don't buy just the Paname Silver or First Majestic Silver or Heckler, Cordelane or whatever this the smaller companies. You buy a basket of of companies. uh and in Canada the best vehicle for that the matter of fact the only vehicle for that is 9point silver equities fund uh which is managed partially by SPAT out of Toronto and I have a huge position in that and it's also available in the United States as well you'd have to if you're listening in the in state side you'd have to look it up and see what it is and if you're in the states of course the go-to there is silj J and cuz that's a basket of 20 30 40 50 silver companies. So this is like I said this is not a sector you rifle shoot because it's just too risky. Uh but at these prices there's not a lot of risk involved although there is some you know geographical political risk involved but uh you know this is where you should be the the uh 9point silver equities is very similar to the SL silj in the US. you know, the product the the company mixes, you know, the percentages are different and stuff, but you know, I own SIJ2. I own 9point silver equities. I own every other stock out there. I own about 15 or so other companies as well. Like, I'm just I've been sitting here, you know, for since 2000, waiting for this thing to hatch into something. And finally, this year, it really has. Gold and silver stocks are up well over 100% this year. And uh I you know I beg you to find anything else that's returned that kind of investment and that's only happened in the last what 6 months. It's know it's just amazing to watch and the thing is is it just got started. >> Thank you so much for that and and really what a time for you. You've been in this for so long and to see it playing out. Anything final you would leave investors with. Oh, I'll tell you what. You know, when it started off in when I ran into Gaddy in 1999 or 2000 or whatever with Bill Billy and Chris Pal, you know, uh we thought this thing would be over like like 25, you know, a generation ago. And Ted Butler, who's still Ted Butler, rest in peace, Ted, you know, you know, was been at this since 1986. So, this has been going on for a long time. And you know, too bad Ted didn't live to see this, but you know, we've been living for this day in the banks and and and the financial system and been sitting on precious metals prices, you know, for you know, for a couple of two or three or four generations and, you know, before you were even born, Charlotte, you know, so you know, after looking at for 25 years, you know, uh the fact that it's coming to an end and that they've delayed this thing and delayed this thing and right down to the last basically the last good delivery bar in London Okay, silver. They've delayed it so long that they've guaranteed that when this thing goes, it's going to blow sky high. So, you know, I've been watching this thing for 25 years. And uh you know, I'm a lot older now than when I started and if I known then back then what I know now, I would have been in Bitcoin or the general stock market up until two years ago and then jumped in now. But, uh what a hell of a ride it's been and like I said, the best is yet to come. Well, that is a perfect place to end on. Thank you so much. It was great to reconnect with you. We'll have to have you back much sooner than next time. Thank you so much. >> And I hope to see you in uh at the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference in January because I've already booked my room and got my ticket. >> Oh, absolutely. Well, then I'm going to see you in January. Very good. >> Oh, okay. And if you're lucky, I'll if I get if he gets the time, I'll buy you a drink. >> Amazing. Well, for now, once again, I'm Charlotte Mloud with investingnews.com and this is Ed Steer. >> Thank you for watching. If you like this video, make sure you hit the like button and subscribe to our channel. We'd also love to hear your thoughts, so leave us a comment below. [Music]
Ed Steer: Silver Rally Now Unstoppable, Price to Hit Triple Digits
Summary
Transcript
[Music] I'm Charlotte Mloud with investingnews.com and here today with me is Ed Steer of Ed Steer's Gold and Silver Digest. He writes a daily column. He's been in the precious metal space for 25 years and he's also on the board of directors for the Gold Antitrust Action Committee. Thank you so much for being here. Great to have you back after a very long time. >> Yes, it's been a while, Charlotte. And I'm glad to be back. happy to have you here today. We've got so much happening in the precious metals space, especially when it comes to silver, and I thought you would be the right person to help people understand what's going on. So, when it comes to silver, I know we're in a a down day today for the metal, but overall looking at 2025, it's been a record setting year. And before we get into what's happening with the price being down today, I was wondering if you could go over the key factors that have allowed it to get past that $50 level and beyond this year, cuz I'm sure you you're seeing a lot going on. >> Oh, well, you know, it all boils down to one thing. Well, two things actually. The last time we spoke was like 10 or more years ago. And at the time I told you that there were eight large commercial traders, most of them bullion banks and investment houses that were mega short the precious metals. That was true then. That is even more true today cuz they've been shorting this rally all the way up. And they haven't gone away. And then you can see the results of their bare raids on Friday, again on Tuesday, and again today. I mean, they're just trying to get to cover as many short positions as they can. They're stuck on the short side to the tune of I don't know 60 plus billion dollars. That's what the shorts are on the short side. And of course the bullion banks are are short a huge chunk of that. And there's no way they're ever going to get out of it. It was the same 10 plus years ago and it hasn't changed today. And uh what they're doing right now is they're just trying to cover as many shorts as they can and before the next leg up in the price and that's uh imminent. The other thing that's the most important right now of course is the ongoing structural deficit in silver. Uh according to the silver institute we're what almost we're well into almost 6 years into a structural deficit where we're consuming far more than we're using and it's like 100 200 million ounces or whatever figure you want to believe. And the fact of the matter is you know London had a meltdown. They just ran out of silver and uh you know everybody knows everybody in this dog out there in in the silver land knows that we have this structural deficit and finally these crooked commercial traders the bullion banks at hell are finally allowing the price to rise to reflect the tax that uh you know we were in a structural deficit you know and we're sitting at what $48 an ounce today I mean it was 53 last week but In reality, it should be silver price should be well into the triple triple digits by now and uh within this within a very short period of time in my opinion. It we're going to be there sooner or later. But uh you know this this price management scheme has been going on ever since Nixon took us off the gold exchange standard back in August of 1971. And finally um our day in the sun as far as silver goes and gold goes and all the other precious metals. It's finally here because everything's up big on the year including the silver shares or what which are up I don't know 130% even I think the s even though silver's down today the silver shares are are actually up on the day and so you know we're up 140% in the silver shares and up 138% in the gold shares. So, you know, this bull market is just getting started and it's, you know, we have shortages in silver and also in platinum and platium and I wouldn't be surprised considering the huge amount of investment money that's going into gold and all the positive stories that are coming out about gold about you got to add it to your portfolios like I think it was Morgan Stanley said you got you know their their model now is 60 2020 20 and even Jamie Diamond came out and said you got to buy this stuff. This is now an unstoppable rally and I'm sure that the reason we got uh kicked downstairs in the price is cuz the bullion banks are trying to get out before we see the next leg up and uh this bull market has got a long long way to go. >> Well, this is a really great overview of the situation. So, thank you for going into that and it's so interesting to see those themes that we talked about so long ago playing out today. I'm wondering if you can talk a little bit more about the situation in London because I've been hearing a lot about the lack of liquidity there and the movement of silver from New York over to London after it went the opposite direction earlier in the year. So, I think investors have a lot of questions. Anything further that you would elucidate there? >> Oh, sure. Absolutely. This is something I keep religious track of and let me just pull up something on my computer screen here. Yeah, I I track the numbers every day and as you as you correctly pointed out, there's been silver flying from u uh the comx in New York over to London. So far this month, uh the last 10 days when it really started to pick up uh 30.8 million ounces has been flown flown uh uh with a one-way ticket. And then also there's a Shanghai futures exchange. Um, I keep religious track of that. In the And in the last eight business days, let me see what have I got here. During the last eight business days, there have been 15.348 million ounces. That's 477 tons of silver withdrawn from them. And that's probably also in London by now as well. And that's not the only besides Cocomx and Shanghai. There's a huge amount of silver being shipped out of Switzerland. They have they have pretty hefty inventories there as well. And they only report their data once a month. And we won't see their October data for about another I would say another month from now. I think it's about the third week cuz I just got their their um their September data now. So it'll be another month we see their October data. But the fact of the matter is the demand for physical silver is voracious. just absolutely voracious. Um I think it was Phil Baker who used to be the CEO of Heckler Mining and also the president and chairman of the Silver Institute did a video interview um oh about 6 weeks ago now where he said silver demand is what he quote quote unquote rapacious. and he said that we need far far higher silver prices to uh to close this gap between supply and demand. And he's 100% correct about that as far as I'm concerned. And when I heard him say that, that guy with his position because he's a swamp creature through and through, you know, um when people like that are coming out and telling you that that is a fair warning to the entire planet that we are going to see three tripledigit silver price. As a matter of fact, I got Keith Newer's triple three three tripledigit t-shirt on right now and uh that day is coming and Phil Baker spelled it out for us in full. So, uh, it's just a matter of waiting and seeing, but the silver demand is absolutely unbelievable from wherever you care to look. >> Well, I wish we could see the the t-shirt, but that that's all right. We can we can imagine it. I think it's very appropriate for right now. And so, talking about this rapacious demand for silver, can you say a little bit more about where you're seeing that come from exactly at the moment? >> Uh, the most obvious demand is is coming from India. I think they imported 22 million ounces. Was it last month or the month before? I can't remember. Uh they're um I I'm supposed to be I should look at their quick estimates for September um and see what they what they imported in September, but I have I should have done that before you uh before I went on the show, but I haven't got the information. But the demand from India is unbelievable. the but the amount of silver going into the SLV and all the other silver ETFs like SPAT etc etc is absolutely horrendous and you know the world only produces what 2.2458 2458 is if my memory is million ounces of silver per day that's all that comes that's all the production we got so when you see 22 million ounces of silver going from going for into India in one month that's 100 days worth of silver production or is it 122 million ounces yeah that's 100 that's about 100 something it's a large amount of silver okay huge 10 days worth of silver reduction So it's a huge amount and when you start to see chunks like that disappear into India where Turkey had a big import month last month uh and all the ETFs and of course uh there's retail bullion demand which has been comeos for the last 6 months it's been just awful. I mean this everybody was just buying the stuff back from c customers they just sold it to because the price wasn't doing anything. But I've been in contact with two two bullion dealers in the last 12 hours and they just the stuff is just flying off the shelf. There's unprecedented demand in the retail sector right now. So they have problems with supply. I mean they're um they have decent inventory now, but the they say right now that uh their the their mints and and the refiners are just backed right up. So, you know, this I used to work in the retail industry for four years part-time and I can tell you right now the supply chain from between the refiner and the retailer is 50 m 50 mi across, but it's only about an inch deep. So it doesn't take any huge amount of demand. 2 or 3 weeks at the most and all of a sudden you're a out of inventory and b looking 2 3 4 months down the road before you get any more. And uh we're heading in that direction right now. And everybody's buying this dip whether it be the shares like I said silver shares which are up on the day now even though silver is down and the demand ever since they killed the price by what $45 is off the root off the charts. And like I said in my column today, you know what the the the bullion banks did literally on Friday, Tuesday and today is they put gold and silver on sale and the Far East is gobbling this up like you wouldn't believe. It's Dewali in India. It's their biggest festival of the year and the biggest wedding season. And all of a sudden you mark gold down five or 6% and silver down 8 or 10%. They're going to be buying this stuff with both hands. And trust me, so even though the boys managed to beat the price tone, all they did was ignite this what what we just discussed was rapacious demand. So no matter what they do, I mean the demand is just going to eat them alive. You know, whether in the short term or the long term, one way or another, uh we're going to run into a supply demand brick wall. And when that day happens, we could see triple doubledigit silver prices in a very very short period of time. definitely feels like that is becoming closer and you touched on a number of factors that I wanted to follow up on. So, one of them was shortages for silver. It sounds like we're getting closer to the moment where it could be very hard to to attain. And the other point I wanted to bring up, so when people are buying all this silver, is that in response to they see the gold price is very high, silver is a more affordable option, is it more to do with silver's qualities on its own? How how are you seeing it? >> It's a combination of all of those things, Charlotte. Um, first of all, you know, like I said, I I was in the retail bullion business for four years. And you know, people come in and they want to buy something and even with gold at $500 an ounce cuz I remember those days and sorry I didn't buy more. Okay? you know, you get $500, you get a little coin about yay bigger around or you can buy 90 ounces of silver, which is far bigger, you know, and uh you know, they're both bright shiny objects. Okay? And you know, you look at 90 of those bright shiny objects compared to one of those little gold shiny objects and you see, you know, tell you what, I think I'll take the 90 bright shiny object cuz people get more for their money. And the other thing, of course, now is everybody knows the supply demand situation, okay? That's where they're buying the snot out of this stuff right now. And the other thing as other people have said and I said in my column, I think it was on Saturday, you know, silver has already become the new gold. >> Yeah, I think we can we can definitely see that that that shift is happening there. So I >> and Charlotte Charlotte Charlotte's going to get even worse as time goes on because you know we're going to see gold what's it 4,000 now once it hit 5,000 or whatever even at silver at 100 or $120 an ounce or 150 or 200 cuz I figure it's going to be $200 to $400 an ounce at least before this is all over. And uh and I'm Hey, you're old enough to remember when silver was $400 an ounce. I mean gold was $400 an ounce. Now, silver is going to be selling for the same amount. But here's the thing that people don't can't can't visualize as when silver blows skyhigh, and it will someday when the when the powers that be decide they're going to take their foot off the price, the thing is that it will not be available at any price. You can go to any bullion store, it will just not be there. The wait times for silver, you know, uh, as some people call, they call it, at some point it will become unoptanium. And that day is coming. Trust me. >> Well, again, many many directions we can go here. I'll I'll ask if we have silver going to $200 to $400 an ounce potentially. In your mind, do you have an idea of where gold would be with silver at those levels? >> Yeah. I don't know. You know the thing is that you have to look back what you know when you and I first were interviewed me like 10 plus years ago. You know I said that you know this is the work of silver analyst Ted Butler and Gatada going back like 25 30 40 years in the case of Ted and we have never seen what the true free market price of gold and silver are because gold has always been fixed. First it was 20 bucks an ounce, then it was $42 an ounce. And they finally let the price out, you know, out in 1973, I think gold became legal in the United States again. And then 1975, the COMX started trading paper gold futures. So, you know, and then the bullion banks have been sitting on the price ever since. We have no idea what the true price of gold is or what silver is because they've never been allowed to trade freely in anybody's lifetime, including mine. Okay. And so we just don't know. So if you're asking me what gold's going to trade at, what silver's going to trade at, I have no idea. But I can give you a hint. Uh right now the gold silver ratio is about 82 to1. Gold comes out of the ground at 7 oz. There's 7 ounces of silver produced for every ounce of gold. Okay? And everybody says, you know, the normal ratio throughout of all recorded history is 15 to1 or 40 to1. And I think that someday, okay, with this shortage becomes really acute, you're going to see it close trading close to 7 ounce 7 to one again. So whatever the gold price is, you divide that by seven or even 10 if you want to be generous. And we're looking at just an absolute fantastic number for silver. So, um, who knows if they ever allowed to trade freely without futures and options attached to them, then we'll find out for sure because, uh, I can right now I can tell you that gold and silver should be priced fantastically higher than they are now. >> We are, it would be uncharted territory. So, very hard to say what could actually happen. And I'm wondering if you can talk a little bit more about how we're seeing the price perform today. So, we mentioned it's it's a down day for silver and I think you'd said that banks have their their foot on the price right now and as you're also saying if they take their foot off, who knows what could happen? And I think people people look at it and maybe they they struggle with this. They wonder, all right, how do we know this isn't the end of the the current rise that we're seeing? How do we know that something like that is going to happen in the future? So, curious to know what you would say to people who have these questions. >> Okay. You know, gold's down what? $33 and silver's down 36 cents. They're well off their engineered low ticks that after the GlobeEx opened in New York yesterday evening. But the thing is, you have to look at a you have to pull out and look at the macro picture. Things are a lot different now than they were say 10 years ago. What we're having we're seeing now in in in the overall is the decline of Western civilization, business, whatever you want to call it. The west collectively including us here in Canada, United States, Europe da we are in decline. The east is in ascension especially China okay with India and uh other countries and Russia not far behind. The thing is that, you know, we're done, okay? And there's a whole new there's a new kid on the block and they're called the Bricks Plus and their presence is being felt out there right now. And we're just seeing it slip from the west to the east. We're selling paper and they're buying the actual physical metal. And sooner or later, uh, they will take control of the price most likely in Shanghai cuz it's a pure physical market, not paper like it is in New York where the price is set in the price will be set in Shanghai. And it's all a physical market. There's no paper there whatsoever. So if you're you look at the price today, it's irrelevant what the price is today. You look at the big picture and look at the fact that the bricks plus have become an absolutely awesome juggernaut and it's absolutely unstoppable. And as we shift from one from the west to the east as this continues economically, financially, uh it's impossible to say where this is going to end up. But what we're we're living right now is we're living through a a major major shift in financial uh power from one sector to from one area of the world to another and we're going to be they're going to be writing about this a thousand years from now. So we're living through history. >> Yeah. I think I'm also seeing a lot of questions right now when it comes to silver especially people wondering is this time different? We've seen silver get to this $50 level a couple of times in the past and it sounds like yes it is. It is actually different this time. I'm wondering if you can say a little bit more about the the role of China in what we're seeing going on right now. I've heard a lot about China, especially when it comes to the growing influence over the gold market. So, anything that you're paying particular attention to there? >> Oh, yeah. Just about everything China related. They're the number two silver producer in the world after is it Mexico or Peru? I can't remember which country. Anyway, they're the number two silver producer. They're also the number one silver user. They also import a lot of silver. Uh the stories are out there from you know over the last couple of years they're running all over South and Central America buying up as many much Dory bar and as concentrate as they can. And I've been that's been confirmed to me by some of the miners in the industry and I won't say who they are cuz they told me not to mention but the reason that they're buying this stuff up is a cuz they want to control the price sooner or later. And secondly, they were trying to drain the the North American smelters from product. So they didn't have enough to smell. So this is a huge game. So you know it's they they control absolutely everything silver related and except for the price right now. So you know they're they're they also export a fair amount of silver too. But and you know I keep track of that as well. Like I said, the Shanghai Futures Exchange, they they've shipped out what's 15 million ounces so far in the last 8 days, and their stocks of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the Shanghai Gold Exchange are the lowest they've been since 2016 as of as of today. Uh if they keep this up, they're going to have almost no silver at all left in those two particular areas. So, you know, silver is being drained worldwide out of Switzerland, out of out of New York and out of Shanghai. Um, but Shanghai is where it's going to be at. Like I said, they're the number one silver user and the number two producer. They they mine more than they produce and sooner or later they're going to control the price for that too. So, China, India, the rise of the bricks, especially China and India, Indonesia and u all the other places over there, Vietnam. Um, no, it's it's China that that's the number one uh country that we should be looking at right now. And, uh, sooner or later they'll be controlling the price, too. And when they do, it'll it's going to be a three-digit number by that time. >> Does the same go for platinum and palladium? Are they also of interest to the east? I'll tell you what, you know, these platinum and platium uh are really fringe metals and I'm looking at platinum right now and it's up $86 today, which I think is short covering, but the short positions in them are just as grotesque. Uh especially platinum. Platium actually the banks are actually net long palladium if you can believe it by a small amount. So um these are really niche markets. Platinum and platium are both basically um industrial metals. Platinum of course has got some jewelry applications and there was a big spike up and it was you know they've risen up an awful lot too and there was big demand in China and Japan and the thing is these are dinky little markets and the platinum institute has come out in the last what year or so and said they're now in a structural deficit in these as well where they're using up way more above ground inventory than is available and of course that's coming out of all the platinum and plating ETFs. So, you know, we have structure because we've had so prices have been suppressed for so long in the last 50 plus years that the prices of everything are far lower than they should be. And uh you know that sooner or later the demand is going to pick up and it's going to put us in a supply demand deficit. The silver deficit is the one that everybody knows about. But it equally applies to platinum. It equally applies to palladium. And although you don't see it in gold yet, I can guarantee you that sooner or later, probably sooner rather than later, we're going to see a supply demand deficit in it as well. And the reason for that is, you know, I watch what's going into the various gold ETFs and it's picked up hugely in the last month. And the other thing that's happening is that I watch every day is the um the deliveries on the Chicago Merkantile Exchange. Um the amount of gold that's being demanded for immediate delivery immediate delivery now is you know off the charts. Silver is in backwardation right now which means it's it's more expensive to buy it. People want it now and they're prepared to pay more to have it right now than wait for December or March deliveries and the chances they're not going to get it. And gold is the same thing. I think it was 4,000 contracts delivered yesterday and 2,000 the day before and 3,000 before that. This is demand for immediate delivery. They're not waiting until December or February. They want it in their hand now. So, the demand, you know, we we use the word rapacious for silver. Well, I'll tell you what, it's just about the same in gold and sooner or later we're going to be in a deficit in that as well. And uh uh it's like, you know, we discussed before, it's impossible to say how this is all going to shake out. But one thing that's absolutely guaranteed that and we like you said, you hate to use the expression it's different this time, but the fact of the matter is it is different this time. So when this clear, when the smoke clears on this, whether it be in a month or two months or 6 months or a year, you know, we're going to see fantastically higher prices, not only in the precious metals, but in a lot of other commodities as well. >> Definitely sums it up. And I don't want to keep you overly long, but before I let you go, I did want to ask, so for investors who are looking at this situation or maybe they're maybe they've been in the space for a while, maybe they're just coming to it, any any thoughts on how they may want to approach it? Of course, you should have your gold and silver if you don't already. For people who might want to add or get into it for the first time, what would be the best way to do that? And should people be considering mining stocks? How how are you thinking about it right now? >> Okay, first of I've been all in on the precious metals for about the last 15 years. Every penny I own is in physical metal or in precious metal stocks, mostly silver stocks. Okay? But the first thing if you're getting into this for the first time, the first thing you have to do is get on the horn to your local bullion dealer, the one you got in in your city or the one you could find on the internet that's in your country, and get your hands on some physical. You have to have physical first. 1 oz rounds, 5 oz bars, 10 oz bars, half kilo kilos, whatever you can get your hands on. But buy that first and uh you know I have a very large position in physical because I've been buying this stuff since what 1998. So you know I have a fair position. I'm also have a huge position in the in the silver stocks. And this is a sector that if you're a newbie to it, even if you're experienced, but if you're a newbie, for sure, you do not rifle shoot this sector, you don't buy just the Paname Silver or First Majestic Silver or Heckler, Cordelane or whatever this the smaller companies. You buy a basket of of companies. uh and in Canada the best vehicle for that the matter of fact the only vehicle for that is 9point silver equities fund uh which is managed partially by SPAT out of Toronto and I have a huge position in that and it's also available in the United States as well you'd have to if you're listening in the in state side you'd have to look it up and see what it is and if you're in the states of course the go-to there is silj J and cuz that's a basket of 20 30 40 50 silver companies. So this is like I said this is not a sector you rifle shoot because it's just too risky. Uh but at these prices there's not a lot of risk involved although there is some you know geographical political risk involved but uh you know this is where you should be the the uh 9point silver equities is very similar to the SL silj in the US. you know, the product the the company mixes, you know, the percentages are different and stuff, but you know, I own SIJ2. I own 9point silver equities. I own every other stock out there. I own about 15 or so other companies as well. Like, I'm just I've been sitting here, you know, for since 2000, waiting for this thing to hatch into something. And finally, this year, it really has. Gold and silver stocks are up well over 100% this year. And uh I you know I beg you to find anything else that's returned that kind of investment and that's only happened in the last what 6 months. It's know it's just amazing to watch and the thing is is it just got started. >> Thank you so much for that and and really what a time for you. You've been in this for so long and to see it playing out. Anything final you would leave investors with. Oh, I'll tell you what. You know, when it started off in when I ran into Gaddy in 1999 or 2000 or whatever with Bill Billy and Chris Pal, you know, uh we thought this thing would be over like like 25, you know, a generation ago. And Ted Butler, who's still Ted Butler, rest in peace, Ted, you know, you know, was been at this since 1986. So, this has been going on for a long time. And you know, too bad Ted didn't live to see this, but you know, we've been living for this day in the banks and and and the financial system and been sitting on precious metals prices, you know, for you know, for a couple of two or three or four generations and, you know, before you were even born, Charlotte, you know, so you know, after looking at for 25 years, you know, uh the fact that it's coming to an end and that they've delayed this thing and delayed this thing and right down to the last basically the last good delivery bar in London Okay, silver. They've delayed it so long that they've guaranteed that when this thing goes, it's going to blow sky high. So, you know, I've been watching this thing for 25 years. And uh you know, I'm a lot older now than when I started and if I known then back then what I know now, I would have been in Bitcoin or the general stock market up until two years ago and then jumped in now. But, uh what a hell of a ride it's been and like I said, the best is yet to come. Well, that is a perfect place to end on. Thank you so much. It was great to reconnect with you. We'll have to have you back much sooner than next time. Thank you so much. >> And I hope to see you in uh at the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference in January because I've already booked my room and got my ticket. >> Oh, absolutely. Well, then I'm going to see you in January. Very good. >> Oh, okay. And if you're lucky, I'll if I get if he gets the time, I'll buy you a drink. >> Amazing. Well, for now, once again, I'm Charlotte Mloud with investingnews.com and this is Ed Steer. >> Thank you for watching. If you like this video, make sure you hit the like button and subscribe to our channel. 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