Investor Summary
Fund Strategy
FUND PERFORMANCE AS OF 31st March 2026
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 12.4% | -7.1% | -7.1% |
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 12.4% | -7.1% | -7.1% |
Diranko Capital delivered a disappointing Q1 2026 return of -7.1% after fees, underperforming both small cap and broad market benchmarks despite strong underlying business fundamentals. The manager attributes the volatility to broader market reactions to Middle East conflicts and energy market implications, plus excessive pressure from quantitative firms focused on quarterly earnings rather than long-term value. The portfolio experienced a roller coaster quarter, appreciating over 7% through March before declining 13% to finish negative. Despite poor short-term performance, the manager maintains high conviction in the deep value investment approach, emphasizing that all investment theses remain on track and recent price declines make the portfolio more attractive. The strategy focuses on obscure, underfollowed small companies where analytical work can uncover hidden value, exemplified by Western Investment Company which was acquired below intrinsic value and later partially sold after material appreciation. Portfolio allocation shifted toward deep value and special situations categories, with the manager expressing confidence in long-term outperformance through patient capital and contrarian positioning.
Investing in obscure and underfollowed small companies using deep value approach where low expectations and analytical work can uncover hidden value, benefiting from patient capital structure that allows enduring short-term volatility for long-term outperformance.
Manager expresses confidence in long-term returns despite recent volatility, emphasizing that all investment theses remain on track and the portfolio appears as promising as it has in a long time following recent price declines.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2 2026 | 2026 Q1 | WI.TO | deep value, growth, small caps, special situations, value, volatility | WI.TO | Diranko Capital posted -7.1% in Q1 2026 due to market volatility around Middle East conflicts and short-term focused quantitative trading, despite strong underlying fundamentals. Manager maintains high conviction in deep value approach targeting obscure small caps, citing Western Investment Company as successful example. Portfolio rebalanced toward deeper value opportunities with confidence in long-term outperformance through patient capital structure. |
| Jan 2 2026 | 2025 Q4 | CSU.TO, ERD.NZ, MAT.NZ | Cyclical, deep value, growth, Microcaps, small caps, special situations, Telematics, value | ERD NZ | Diranko Capital delivered 19.9% net returns in 2025 through disciplined small-cap value investing. Portfolio positioned across deep value opportunities (25%), special situations (22%), and underappreciated microcap growers (50%). Manager acknowledges timing mistakes but maintains conviction in three-pronged approach targeting businesses with €150 million average market cap where limited institutional coverage creates persistent mispricings. |
| Oct 1 2025 | 2025 Q3 | AAPL, AMZN, AVGO, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA | AI, Big tech, small caps, technology, valuation, value | - | Strong Q3 performance continues with 11.2% returns. Manager analyzes AI economics, arguing Big Tech's $1 trillion datacenter investments require unrealistic $660 billion annual AI sales to justify returns. Current $75 billion AI revenues make this improbable. Avoiding overvalued AI theme, focusing on undervalued small businesses with margin of safety. |
| Jul 4 2025 | 2025 Q2 | AAPL, GOOGL, META | Balance Sheet, Developed Markets, Geopolitical, inflation, mispricing, small caps, value | - | Diranko Capital targets mispriced small-cap equities in developed markets outside the US, focusing on companies with strong balance sheet protection and underappreciated business quality. Manager believes the favorable macro environment supporting large-cap growth is reversing due to geopolitical tensions, recession fears, and inflation, creating opportunities in overlooked smaller companies with asymmetric upside potential. |
| Apr 9 2025 | 2025 Q1 | AAPL, GOOGL, NVDA, TSLA | emerging markets, Fed policy, gold, growth, Labor Market, liquidity, small caps, technology | - | Exceptional liquidity drove Q3 equity gains despite macro headwinds, with the S&P 500 up 7.8% led by growth sectors and mega-cap concentration reaching records. Small-caps rebounded on rate cut expectations while emerging markets outperformed. Strong demand fundamentals support year-end momentum, but stretched valuations and limited breadth present constraints amid ongoing policy and trade uncertainties. |
| Dec 9 2024 | 2024 Q4 | - | AI, Central Banks, diversification, global, Multi-Asset, rates, Trade Policy | - | Q3 2025 delivered broad-based global market gains driven by AI optimism, Fed rate cuts, and easing trade tensions. Growth outperformed value amid continued technology enthusiasm. While fresh trade uncertainties and government shutdown create near-term volatility, the fundamental backdrop remains solid with supportive monetary policy and resilient corporate earnings heading into 2026. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 |
ValueManager emphasizes deep value investing approach, comparing it to a Formula 1 race where undervalued companies race downhill with low expectations while expensive companies face uphill battles. Cites studies showing cheapest market segments outperform over long term despite requiring endurance through volatility. |
Deep Value Undervalued Cheap Multiples Contrarian Mean Reversion |
Small CapsPortfolio focuses on obscure and underfollowed small companies where analytical work can uncover hidden value. Manager believes this approach provides sustainable competitive advantage as these companies receive less institutional attention and analysis. |
Small Cap Underfollowed Obscure Analytical Edge Institutional Neglect | |
| 2025 Q4 |
Small CapsManager focuses exclusively on small businesses with average market cap of €150 million. Believes limited investor universe researching these situations creates persistent opportunities across market cycles. Notes fewer professional managers and shrinking assets under management in this space. |
Microcaps Small Cap Undervalued Mispricing Inefficiency |
ValuePortfolio includes deep value investments bought at vastly discounted prices, either below five times sustainable earnings or less than half of conservative replacement cost estimate. Manager expects either stock price doubling or 20% earnings yield through dividends and buybacks. |
Deep Value Earnings Yield Replacement Cost Discount Undervalued | |
Special SituationsCurrently invested in liquidation and thrift conversion representing 22% of portfolio. These investments are largely independent of overall economy and stock market direction, depending instead on specific corporate actions with consistent returns over 3-12 month timeframes. |
Liquidation Thrift Conversion Corporate Actions Event Driven Catalyst | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIManager provides detailed analysis of AI investment economics, arguing that Big Tech's $1 trillion datacenter investments through 2026 require unrealistic revenue assumptions to generate adequate returns. Questions whether AI can replace enterprise software spending and achieve productivity gains quickly enough to justify current valuations. |
Artificial Intelligence Datacenter Enterprise Software Productivity Valuation |
ValueManager focuses on small, boring businesses trading at significant discounts to intrinsic value with tangible margin of safety. Contrasts this approach with following investment themes and emphasizes protection of downside through disciplined valuation. |
Intrinsic Value Margin of Safety Discount Downside Protection Small Business | |
| 2025 Q2 |
Small CapsManager focuses exclusively on small-cap equities in developed markets with less emphasis on the United States. Believes over 90% of publicly listed businesses have market capitalizations under $1 billion, creating a broader universe of potential investments. Strategy involves identifying companies with tangible downside protection via balance sheet where the underlying business is underappreciated. |
Small Caps Developed Markets Balance Sheet Mispricing Illiquid |
ValueCore investment philosophy centers on buying assets for less than they are worth. Focuses on identifying companies with observable balance sheet protection and directional correctness about business quality to create asymmetric upside opportunities. Plans to exit positions when mispricing closes and stock appreciates meaningfully. |
Value Mispricing Balance Sheet Asymmetric Undervalued | |
| 2025 Q1 |
LiquidityStrong underlying demand and robust liquidity supported equity resilience despite seasonal headwinds. Robust ETF inflows, near-record corporate buybacks, and limited selling pressure created Volume Demand exceeding Volume Supply by one of the widest margins since 2021. |
ETF Inflows Buybacks Volume Demand Supply |
Small CapsSmall-cap stocks led performance as the Russell 2000 rebounded with investors anticipating lower borrowing costs and easier financial conditions. Small-cap and growth stocks outperformed, driven by earnings momentum and strong liquidity. |
Russell 2000 Borrowing Costs Financial Conditions Earnings Growth | |
GrowthGrowth leadership extended through Q3 with Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Discretionary leading performance. Large-cap growth gained 11.1% and continued to lead year-to-date with strong earnings and liquidity. |
Technology Communication Services Consumer Discretionary Large Cap Earnings | |
GoldGold led gains among emerging markets and commodities, with a 127% surge driving Metals and Mining to lead all industries. Gold miners and precious metals posted strong advances during the quarter. |
Metals Mining Precious Metals Commodities Surge | |
| 2024 Q4 |
AIAI optimism was a key driver of Q3 performance, with continued enthusiasm for AI-related themes fueling growth stock outperformance. AI-driven technology optimism supported broad market gains and contributed to the best third quarter performance since 2020. |
Technology Growth Innovation Semiconductors Software |
Trade PolicyTrade tensions eased during Q3 as negotiations progressed and retaliatory threats diminished, supporting rotation into international equities. However, President Trump threatened fresh tariffs on China over rare earth export controls, maintaining uncertainty despite market adaptation to higher tariffs. |
Tariffs China International Policy Geopolitical | |
RatesCentral bank rate decisions shaped market dynamics, with the Fed restarting its rate-cutting cycle in September with a 25bp cut. The Bank of England implemented its first rate cut since 2020, while the ECB held steady, creating divergent monetary policy paths across regions. |
Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Interest Rates Central Banks Easing |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2026 | Fund Letters | Diranko Capital | WI.TO | Western Investment Company of Canada | Other | Multi-Sector Holdings | Bull | Toronto Stock Exchange | Asset-based valuation, Buy and Build, deep value, holding company, Insurance, Rights Offering, Special situations, Sum-of-parts, Underwriting Profit, Western Canada | Login |
| Jan 2, 2026 | Fund Letters | David Diranko | ERD NZ | EROAD Ltd | Information Technology | Application Software | Bear | New York Stock Exchange | capital allocation, Regulatory Exposure, Telematics, turnaround, Valuation Discipline | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| WI.TO | WI is an investment holding company currently undergoing a transformation into an insurance holding company. Its goal is to serve as a platform for small, niche insurers in Western Canada through a buy-and-build strategy led by a seasoned industry veteran. We purchased shares shortly after the rights offering in November 2024 at approximately CAD 0.43 per share. In return, we effectively received: CAD 0.32 per share in net cash, CAD 0.04 per share in tangible book value from the insurance operation, which has been growing profitably at over 100% annually and, in my view, can generate CAD 0.05 per share in underwriting profit by 2028, CAD 0.04 per share in non-listed stakes across three businesses that appeared materially undervalued, validated by the subsequent sale of one stake at a 130% premium (CAD 0.06 per share) to its carrying value. The stock appreciated materially during Q4 of last year and into Q1 of this year, reaching a high of CAD 0.96 per share. While we remain confident in the long-term potential of both the business and its management team, we took advantage of this appreciation to sell half our position. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Sells Data | ||||||
| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| No industry data available | |||