'Controlled Implosion Of The Economy' And End Of Democracy Explained | Xueqin Jiang
Summary
US-China Relations: Guest is optimistic about a rapprochement, citing mutual dependency, scheduled leader visits, and potential trade normalization that could export China's deflation to the U.S.
AI: He argues the AI boom is a bubble driven by circular financing, weak monetization, and could end in a controlled implosion engineered by large players.
Data Centers: Data centers are central to GDP growth but are costly, water- and power-intensive, and often subsidized, pushing higher utility costs onto communities.
Digital Currencies: Stablecoin/Treasury backing and tokenization are framed as financial repression tools; adoption likely needs a crisis, balancing convenience with surveillance and programmable control.
Electric Vehicles: China’s EV sector is portrayed as subsidy-fueled with overproduction and dumping into Europe, pressuring EU automakers and raising profitability doubts.
Market Outlook: The guest sees risks of an engineered downturn akin to 2008, with complacent markets masking systemic fragility and institutional constraints.
Key Companies Mentioned: Amazon (AMZN) layoffs as AI scales, BlackRock (BLK) active in tokenization, and OpenAI’s monetization challenges signal near-term risks in tech.
Overall View: Expect near-term macro stability if US-China ties improve, but significant risks from an AI-led tech bubble, resource-heavy infrastructure, and tighter digital financial controls.
Transcript
the economy's headed towards disaster. There's really no way around it. It's going to crash at some point and everyone's closing their eyes and praying it doesn't crash. It's completely engineered by the tech companies. When that happens, then the people cry for a king. A king can unite them against the arch. And what a king does is often cancel that. I think over the next year, you will see these major signals. You will see a more strengthened relationship between China and United States. very fast from 2028, Trump runs as the vice president for the Rep Republican party and Obama runs the vice as vice presidential candidate for the Democratic party. It doesn't really matter who's who's at top top of the ticket because it's really Obama versus Trump. And in that scenario, Trump wins easily against Obama. >> I'm pleased to welcome back the show X Shu Jing Jang, host of Predictive History on YouTube and Substack. Check out his work, YouTube channel link down below. He's got a great channel and a lot of interesting information there. Welcome back to the show, Shu. I'm excited to talk to you today about uh China and the US uh the AI bubble in the in the tech sector and as well the uh future of uh digital currencies in the west. So very varied topics today, very top of mind topics. Welcome back. >> Thanks a lot, David. Um thanks thanks for inviting me back. >> Yeah, for sure. We had a great conversation about the Middle East last time. Uh Jen was on and he talked about uh what he thinks is going to happen with the uh with not just the Middle East, but the world. Check out the link down below for our last interview. And uh you know, potentially we're looking at a third world war. Let's pivot from that today and talk about first China and the US. As you know, this week Jen uh President President Trump and President Xi of China met to discuss um a new trade deal and some some uh secessions were made on both sides. On China's side, they agreed to not uh ban the export of certain critical minerals and uh on the US side, they've lowered tariffs a little bit. Um and additionally, China agreed to buy again US soybeans. So, this is a good step forward. Uh markets in the US uh didn't respond negatively to this, although there wasn't a huge surge either. In your opinion, was this significant progress or are we just treading on, you know, the same ground here? Keep in mind that there was supposed to be a 100% tariff starting November [snorts] 1st today, but obviously that's no longer happening. >> Yeah. So, I'm very optimistic about this relationship. So, I think that um President Trump and President C meeting for the first time in 78 years. Um it's it's mark a major turnaround in USChina relations. I believe that in the next uh year or two we will see a major approachment between China and the United States. And the reason is very simple. Uh these nations are independent on each other. Um China needs the US market and the US needs Chinese to buy US dollars. Uh it's that simple. Um so I think for the past 7 8 years there was a lot of posturing going going around. And we have to remember in the first Trump term um the relationship is very different from the second Trump term. In the first um Trump term there was a lot of animosity between the two sides. So, as you may recall, um, uh, the United States, uh, kicked out Chinese journalists and, uh, China retaliated by kicking out, um, American journalists from the New York Times, Washington Western Washington Western Washington Western Washington Western Washington Western Washington Western Washington Western Washington Western Washington Western Washington Western Washington Post and Wall Street Journal and they've never returned. Um, the Chinese have closed a um, American consulate. Um, the Americans canled the Peace Corps in in China. So, there was a lot of animosity between these two sides and we don't see that in the second term. So I am very optimistic um about this relationship uh improving over the next year. So remember that um President Trump is scheduled to visit China um in April of next year and then President C will visit United States for a conference in December. And so I think that over next year behind the scenes a lot of major issues will be will be hashed out and we'll see an improved status between China and United States. >> Yes. Uh so why even issue the threat of a 100% tariff in the first place from Trump's side that is >> yeah so we have to remember that Trump has a unique governing style uh he comes from reality TV he comes from the world wrestling entertainment system so he likes bluster um you know before a big showdown you know everyone all the actors make a big talk make huge threats to draw attention and that's what Trump did in this in this situation um no one really thought that Trump would actually go through with the 100% tariffs. Um, if you just watch the markets, um, people were already factoring in the fact that Trump will tackle, right? Uh, that Trump would ultimately cave in and so and that's why we didn't see a surge in markets after the the meeting because everyone just um price down um it already ends. So, yeah, that's what Trump is known for. He's known for bluster and he's going to keep on doing this, right? remember um what Trump's like like li likes to do is um play things up before um um I mean it's basically drama right I mean uh the one thing that you learn in TV is to create as much conflict as possible and then find a resolution and that's what he did here [snorts] >> okay we have to look at what's ahead for not just the US's economy and um administration but also what's ahead for China is about to issue in full their 15th 5-year plan. Um, they've drafted up recommendations, but as I'm aware right now, they haven't yet released the details in full yet. Uh, a blueprint is being drafted. Recommendations have been announced. Um, this is this is some of their recommendations. Now, again, the full details haven't yet been released. Um, it's they're meeting end of October, which I believe is now. Greater sci-fi tech reliance is one of them. Broader opening up. According to pro uh commerce minister Wang Wen Tao ch China will take the initiative to open more broadly in the next 5 years focusing on the services sectors. Efforts will be made to expand market access. Um this is kind of uh building modernized industrial system is another one and um we we this is this is the information released by the uh state council of the people's republic of China so far. Uh, do you have any more information about this? And generally speaking, what are you looking forward to for China's development in the next 5 years? >> Look, I I'll be very blunt with you, David. I don't really pay much attention to these 5-year plans like these modernization efforts, focus on AI, uh, creating, um, you know, a modernized financial economy. And the reason why is that China has has always had a problem, and it's this pro it's a consistent problem for the past 4,000 years, which is an inefficient allocation of capital. Whenever you have state planning going on, um the capital always goes to those who are most well connected to the system. So those who are most um those who are closest to power and the the capital doesn't go to those who are the most energetic, the most innovative, um those who are going to actually produce the product. And this this has been consistent problem in the state planning system in China for for the past 4,000 years. And so um they talk they talk a bit big game but the reality is that um capital has been monopolized by the powerful and um there really um isn't that much incentive for Chinese to innovate. I mean that's just the reality on the ground in China. >> There there is a vibrant tech sector right now in China that some say is even rivaling the US. I mean how clearly there there there's been some success in innovating right? China of course has as you know for example the world's largest EV production right now uh world's largest solar panel production so on and so forth I'm just naming a few things um so some would argue that this is kind of working no >> well I mean I mean we we can have this argument back and forth but if you look at the EV sector um specifically then what a lot of Chinese economists will tell you is that there's overprouction in the system and the reason why is just government subsidies have been flooding the system and so China needs to export these cars because China doesn't have the domestic capacity to um to to to buy up these these cars and that's why uh the Europeans are kind of angry about the situation because China's dumping these cars in the European market at very cheap rates. Uh it's very it's it's debatable whether or not even China makes money off of these cars and it's destroying the European car sector. So, so that's why people are kind of angry at China right now. Um, but but again, I think the problem is that you have over capacity, you have uh poor planning uh which produces um excess capacity. >> There's these pictures of Xi Jinping shaking hands with Trump now apparently they're best friends or something like that. The bigger question right now is uh Jen, what is she's ultimate ambition and what does Trump want for himself and for America? ultimately do these objectives or ambitions clash or can they work together in the next few years? >> Right? So um in in geopolitics I think a general rule that always applies is that the conflict within nation states is always greater more intense than the conflict between nation states. So what I mean by that is that both President C and President Trump are looking to consolidate their domestic power bases and they do that by ensuring that those who are loyal to them are inserted into positions of power and so that's what both are doing and they're both using uh the these ch US China trade talks. They're both using the geopolitical landscape in order to uh achieve this goal. So for President C um it's very simple. He wants to continue to consolidate his power base within China and he wants a more um stable relationship with the United States. Those are those are his two major policy goals for the next two four two to four years. [snorts] Before we continue with the video, let's talk about our sponsor today, ODU. ODO is a complete business management suite trusted by over 15 million users across the globe. Whether you're a freelancer or scaling a growing company, ODU brings everything into one place. Sales, CRM, accounting, inventory, HR, project management, and more. It's all fully centralized and integrated. Your CRM connects to your invoicing, your sales flow into your inventory, and your HR tools sync with payroll. Everything communicates in real time, reducing manual tasks and errors. And ODU grows with your business. Start with one app for free with unlimited hosting and support. Then add more as you scale. When you're ready to go allin, access the full suite starting at just $24.90 per month. Check out the link in the description down below to try odu and simplify your business operations. But is it true though that China has ambitions to become a a global superpower both economically and militarily? And if so, does that mean that there's going to be collision between the Chinese and the US? >> Yeah. So, at the beginning of President C's term, he introduced a concept called the China dream. And it's a very ambiguous, very nebulous concept. And people have been debating back and forth what this concept means. Uh, Western commentators believe that the China dream is for China to rise in the world stage and take a more assertive role um to basically um shape the world according to China's needs and ambitions. I disagree with this assessment. I think the China dream really is about maintaining national sovereignty about maintaining ter territorial integrity. This means um ensuring that China that sorry this means ensuring that Taiwan does not declare independence. That's a very important part of the China dream. But I think primarily China is concerned about its own domestic issues and maintaining um its uh national sovereignty and that in and that includes um negotiating with America and other great powers on a peer-to-peer basis. That's what the China means. >> Do you think that China in the opening up phase if it opens up even more could risk uh destabilizing itself? In other words, uh the government may risk some sort of revolution whereby people demand a democracy. >> Um that's not likely in China. Um the I mean democracy is a foreign concept in China. There isn't really much of an appetite for democracy. What people in China want is um stability. They want um some prosperity, but but they're willing to, you know, the Chinese term is chool, eat bitter. Um, so they don't have to live they don't have to have the have the American lifestyle of like, you know, air conditioning, two SUVs, their own house, but they they want uh life to be stable, harmonious, and that's really the the ch the Chinese dream. So, China doesn't really want that much. Um, yeah. >> Okay, let's talk about what's happening with the US then, and uh the future of the US. This is an interesting article from uh NPR. Hundreds of scholars say the US is swiftly heading towards authoritarianism. A survey of more than 500 political scientists find that the vast majority think the United States is moving swiftly from liberal democracy towards some sort of authoritarianism. In the benchmark survey known as Bright Line Watch, a US-based professor uh US-based professors rate the performance of American democracy on a scale from zero complete dictatorship to 100, which is perfect democracy. I'm not even sure what a perfect democracy means, but okay. After President Trump's election in November, scholars gave American democracy rating of 67. Uh several weeks into Trump's second term, that figure plummeted to 55. Okay. Um I I I haven't seen the details of this particular survey, it could just be partisan, but if you just to look at things objectively, is there any truth to some of the sentiment here? >> Well, I mean, again, if you look at the um first Trump term, you compare it to the second Trump term, it's night and day. Remember in the first Trump term there was vocal disscent uh in the streets there were violent they weren't violent protests but there were lots of protests against the Trump presidency. Um the the media attack Trump every day. Remember uh back in the first uh Trump term, there's something called the Russia gate, right? Uh Robert Mueller, a former FBI director, a conduct investigation to see whether or not Trump was an was a Russian agent. Um and even within Trump's cabinet, there was vocal disscent. Remember Mark Millie, the um former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff um basically said that he told the Chinese, he called the Chinese and said, "Don't worry about this guy. We know he is a bit unpredictable, but uh we're we have control here. We're like everything's under our control, right? So Trump really didn't really have that much power and he was always on the defensive. Um the Democrats impeach him twice. Um you know, after Trump um lost the midterms, the Democrats immediately started impeaching proceedings. So um Trump was really on the defensive in the first term. On the second term, it's a complete opposite. Trump very much is on the offensive. um these ICE rates um it's really debatable what these ICE rates are about right because you just look at deport deportation numbers the absolute number of deportation under Trump is still lower than that under Obama so um what's ICE for and some people speculated that ICE is meant to be um a imionic secret police they're testing out the possibility of a secret police now you also have have you know the National Guard being deployed to Democratic strongholds like Portland and Chicago and there's talk of next year, Trump deploying the National Guard to all all states and now there's talk of um war against Venezuela in the Middle East uh possibly Ukraine and so and so that gives Trump emergency war powers. Uh Trump has has discussed the possibility of invoking the insurrection act. Uh Trump has played around the idea of running for a third term. I don't know how he'll do that, but I believe that given everything that we've seen so far, I think he has the intention of possibly running for a third term. So, um, we're seeing a rapid decline democracy in America. I think it's very hard to, uh, to miss. What's really depressing to see though is the lack of opposition. So, the Democratic party has not been able to sustain, um, opposition against Trump and we, we can see that from the government shutdown. The like, has anyone noticed that the the government has shut down? Um, do people realize that there are there will be millions of millions Americans who will not receive food stamps and they will starve and there will be possibly riots. um you know given the possibility of civil unrest and possibly civil war, you would think the Democrats would want to quickly come to an agreement with the Trump administration, but not they're not doing that. They're just like sitting back and wait and waiting for the chaos to erupt so that can win the midterms in um November, but next sorry next November. But who says there will be midterms next November? So um there's really a lack of strategic foresight from the Democrats. They're very passive and because there's no effective opposition, Trump can basically do whatever he wants. Okay. Uh but obviously the American people or the people in the west would not accept an authoritarian authoritarian uh dictatorship or even a monarchy if the opportunity presented itself, right? If people voted, hey, you have here uh a republic or you could choose between a monarchy or some sort of dictatorship. I mean, I don't What do you think is going to happen? Well, look, look, I mean, you can make the legitimate argument that the choice isn't between monarchy and democracy. The choice is between monarchy and olararchy. You can make the argument that America has not been has democracy for a long time. Ever since 2008, financial crisis when Obama bailed out the oligarchs and screwed over the people. Um, and you had co which even further economic inequalities. Um and so you can make the argument that for the past 101 15 years America has transitioned into a full scale arch and you just you can just look at what what's happening in the American economy where and the only thing that's that's up is the stock market and and only only about like you know 1% or the top 10% or 90% of American stocks. So the system is geared specifically towards the top 10%. Member has become an argu if you look at historically when that happens then the people cry for a king. Why? Because first of all a king can unite them against the oligarchy and what a king does is often cancel debt right um the king his first act is often a jubilee where he cancels the debts of the people and the other thing that he will do is redistribute wealth primarily land in a way that uh furthers the interests of of the people. So, if you're an American citizen, okay, if you're just an average American citizen, you're heavily in debt, you know, you have a mortgage, you have credit card um debt, you're facing delinquency, your economic prospects aren't that great, would you prefer the system to stay as it is, or would you prefer a king? Um, I would say most people would choose a king. So, so, so I I'll make you So, so so, so it's possible that in 2028, it's very possible in 2028, Trump runs as the vice president for the Rep Republican party and Obama runs the vice as vice presidential candidate for the Democratic party. It doesn't really matter who's who's at top top of the ticket because it's really Obama versus Trump. And in that scenario, Trump wins easily against Obama. >> Interesting. Well, you've called Trump's win. So, let's see what happens again in 2028. uh that that I don't is that is that legal though for a for a for a president to have run two terms to run third time as a vice president? I I have to look into that. Comment below if you know what the legalities of that. Yeah. >> Look, the famous thing is that it's wrong. It's immoral. >> It's unconventional, but it's not >> illegal. Okay. I mean, so the the US the US political system is built on consensus, on norms, on certain values that people share together. So you have someone like like Trump come in. and he actually doesn't share any of these values. There's very little the political system can do against this this sort of person. >> Let's talk about stocks. Now, you mentioned the stock market. So, yes, stocks are at all-time highs and especially tech stocks that are leading the charge. Tech is accounting for most of the gains. Tech is accounting for most of the capex spending in uh the S&P 500. And just today I learned from another economist I was speaking to that without data centers GDP growth in uh the first quarter was only about 0.1%. If you take that out >> so tell us about your views on uh tech and AI and the markets. >> Look look I'm not an industry so I I don't even know what I read in the news but what the news tells me is number one you have certain AI companies that are financing each other. So, um, it's it's essentially a bubble that they have to all prop up in order to survive. Number two is that people have not figured out how to make money off AI yet. You know, Samwin recently came out and said that uh um, you know, open AI was will allow sexing, right? That's that's a sign of desperation. It it just it's just telling people that uh, Chachi BBT they haven't really been able to monetize it properly. In fact, what what I've heard um what I've read is that for every new subscriber, CHATP loses money. Um it it's just a money losing proposition. Okay, that's number two. They haven't figured out how to make money. Now, third thing, and you point this out, is the extra cost of these data centers. Uh they're extremely expensive to run and they suck up all communities uh fresh water and electricity resources. Americans are seeing their electricity cost skyrocket. Why? because of because these data centers are uh so expensive to uh to run. And so you have this weird situation where the entire economy is just basically the AI bubble and these corporations um are using government subsidies in order to build these data centers in order to exploit the water and electricity resources of a community and then passing on to consumer and they still don't know how to make money off this thing. So um I mean I mean the economy's headed towards disaster. There's really no um way around it. And so the question then is can the Americans manage an implode sorry can the Americans manage a controlled implosion of the economy and [snorts] that's why I think we're seeing a lot of talks of civil war of social unrest because if there's social unrest then you it's possible for you to do a controlled implosion economy otherwise everything just blows up in your face. You know, there's this um um journalist uh Andrew Sorcin who's going around who's going around talking about 1929. You know, he's getting a lot of coverage and he's saying, "Look, we're heading towards another stock market crash." And this sounds like predictive programming to me. It's preparing people for the possibility of a major financial implosion within the United States. And this financial implosion is something that that they want to manage in order to reduce the um repercussions and consequences. So you think this whole bubble is somewhat engineered by the tech companies or I don't know what what's what's causing >> Yeah, it's completely engineered by the tech companies, right? So if you if you look at um the financing, it's these companies lending money to each other. It's like I give you a billion dollars for a puppy and then you give me the and then I buy and then you and then um you give me a billion dollars for my I don't know >> [laughter] >> It's circular financing. You're right. It's it's it's it's companies investing in each other um taking stakes in each other and becoming bigger as as either monopolies or like you said earlier all the goalies. But isn't that good for for investors at least in the short term? I mean we're we're we're everybody they're lifting the entire the the high tide is lifting all boats here, right? They're lifting the entire market. >> Look the reality is that America and China are moving toward the same model which is state planning, right? state financing and again the issue that you have is an inefficient allocation of capital. The money should be going to small-time entrepreneurs to you know build restaurants to build businesses that employ people. Uh the reality is that AI uh the irony is that the more successful AI is, the more the economy loses jobs, right? So Amazon has announced it's going to lay off like 30,000 workers. And this is just just the like, you know, tip tip tip of the spear, you know, like like if AI really works, then you ideally uh you would um um reduce employment by like millions and millions of people. So that's the paradox that America is um finding itself in. If AI doesn't work, the economy uh implodes. But if AI does work, then everyone loses um his or her job. That's kind of ridiculous situation to be in. >> So is there what would trigger this pop in the bubble? >> Well, I mean again, it's engineered, right? So it's a controlled implosion. So basically, it's basically these companies getting together with the banks and saying, you know what, uh let's cash out now. Okay? And that's what we saw in the 2008 um uh financial crisis, right? Because remember it was an engineered collapse because everyone knew that uh the system was unsustainable. Uh these banks were heavily in debt because of CDOS's and all that. But but what really started the crisis was the fact that you had these big hedge fund managers um taking out uh bets against uh these cos. So basically an engineer collapse. Goldman Sachs were make was making a lot of money off uh cos but what they realized is they can make even more money betting against their own cos and that's what happened. I mean Goldman Sachs got ridiculously wealthy off the collapse and that's something that people don't really discuss even though it was Goldman Sachs who created the crisis and it was Goldman uh Sachs who created the collapse. Right now, the markets are not signaling any sort of economic problems, right? Um, everything's going to all-time highs and there doesn't seem to be a lot of volatility. Doesn't seem to be a lot of fear in the markets. Do you think that sentiment is an accurate reflection? >> Um, well, I mean, everyone has their head in the sand because if you are an institutional investor, right, if you're a pension fund, [laughter] if if if you're like, you know, Black Rockck, Vanguard, like like what can you do about this situation, right? I mean it's it it's just like pray and um hope nothing uh happens. Um so you know this reminds me of a joke where you know this car is spiraling down a mountain at you know 100 miles per hour and the pass the guy in the passenger seat is like has closed his eyes and they land safely and then the passenger says to driver how are you able to stay calm all this time and the driver says well I have my eyes closed as well. Okay. And that's the situation we we are in. The entire stock market, the entire economy, the entire financial sector, it's this car spiraling down a mountain 100 miles per hour. It's going to crash at some point and everyone's closing their eyes and praying it doesn't crash. >> The other development is the introduction of um the Genius Act over the summer. So, stable coins will be backed by US treasuries is what the act states and uh this may be a precursor to uh state issuance of stable coins. Um and more broadly there's a large movement right now to tokenize a lot of real world assets and securities not just by the state level but also by large institutions. Black Rockck for example. So tell us about uh the digit digitization of financial assets and whether or not that's going to change your assessment here. >> Yeah. So um I think digital currency tokenization it's all just a fancy workar around the idea of financial repression. Right. So when you have an economy in this sort of situation where a lot of people are in debt, where the market is overheated, you need to control financial transactions and the way you do that is by creating a lot of friction within the um um within these thesections. This is something that China has been doing for the past 2 to four years. And listen, it's been remarkably successful. Um and and so as long as you have financial repression, as long as people can't ever, you know, do a run on the banks, that that's a metaphor, but they they don't do a run on on the banks anymore. But if they can't do a run on the banks, then the system is still stable and the system can still chuck along even though it's basically semicomaos. Um so that's the idea of digital currency. The problem though is how do you get people to agree to digital currency to trade like to stop using cash? You can do that in China because of co right because the co crisis created this implosion of the financial economy and it forced people to stay at homes and it forced people to use um software as a means of u daily transactions. So the most common thing was just to um get delivery people to mail groceries and um goods to your house and so that's what start the introduction of digital currency. So America needs to manufacture a crisis in order to fully introduce digital currency. Are you bullish then on currencies, digital currencies, cryptos, all cryptos, or just certain ones? >> Well, I mean, listen, I'm not wealthy, so if I had a choice, I put all my resource into the US dollar because if the economy gets worse, if there's wars that break out, um, I still think the US dollar gives me mobility, uh, gives me flexibility. Um, all the currencies are based on the dollar. Okay? I mean, it doesn't make sense for me to buy gold or Bitcoin because I'm not an institutional investor. I'm not a long-term investor. Um, [snorts] and I don't have that much wealth, but >> this is an interesting topic that I want to ask you about. Uh, the the tokenization of the fiat dollars, meaning putting it on a stable coin. Would your life change? Would your life be better if let's say the dollars that you have are put in the blockchain. And let's say, suppose you don't have a bank account because you no longer need a bank account. Everything you have is in stable coins. You just put it in a cold wallet or a hot wallet. you self- custody your own money and uh you're able to send money and receive money from anywhere in the world without friction instantaneously. Would that would that be a future you like? >> Yeah, that's a great point. And listen listen, I have to say this. I live in China. I've been living in China for a long time. The introduction of digital currency has made my life so much more convenient, right? Because now um every transaction is seamless. I go to restaurants, I use my app to pick the the the items I want on the menu and then I pay with my app. It's so easy and it's so safe because I I'm never afraid of losing cash. You know, um you know, thieves are out of a job in in China. The problem though is what the government could do with this power, right? Because it's very feasible that, you know, he says something stupid online and I have a tendency to do that and the government says, "You know what? We're going to teach you a lesson. So, we're going to freeze this account for for the next week, right? they can do that with pro with with programmable digital currency. So I'm lucky in that that hasn't happened to me but you know there are people who who who face this issue in in China and so >> everywhere in the world happening in Canada >> possibly everywhere in the world possibly everywhere in the world right so that's that's a that so with digital currency you're giving basically all your power to government because you've um eliminated anominity from the economy okay that's that's that's a concern with with digital currency so yeah it makes your life more convenient but it gives the government so much power over you as the individual. Also, remember digital currency can be controlled. So, the government can actually track all your behavior and limit the way you spend your money. Um, I mean that sounds great because listen, that means you can't gamble. That means you can't buy alcohol. That means you cannot buy cigarettes. It's aligned with government policy and you know the entire purpose is to make you a more healthy uh person. But at the end of the day, that destroys the social contract, right? That destroys all your individual agency. that destroys the entire idea of um individuality. So, is that a future we want? >> Yeah, I guess good point. So, uh all right. Uh it seems like we've got uh a lot of problems to ponder. Shoo. Uh but uh let's end on this note. Anything that you're looking forward to in terms of the development of not just our economy but society uh that will greatly improve our standard of living if there is such a thing? Yeah, listen, I think that this USChina relationship is key because um you know, China has all this excess cheap labor labor that it needs to um export and remember before um the trade war that started that Trump started in his first term um Chinese goods flowing to United States allowed Americans a higher standard of living. >> [snorts] >> Um and so now that you remove um Chinese goods or mo most Chinese goods then inflation has gone up. So the situation is that China is facing deflation, America's facing inflation. So I think that if US China relations weren't improve and China [snorts] was able to export um this deflation o uh overseas then people's standard of living would improve drastically and so that's something I'm looking forward to. I think over the next year you will see these major signals that the US China is uh reaching a reproachment and it's entirely possible that you will see a more strengthened relationship between China and United States. Listen, at the end of the day, China and states are status quo powers. They want things to stay the same. Russia, Iran, North Korea, Venezuela, these are these are revisionist powers. They want things to change. And so um the United States and China benefit from working from working with each other as opposed to funding each other. And I think that's something that both nations have come come to an inclus have come to understand after many years of fighting. So I'm looking forward to that. >> Okay. Good. All right. Thank you very much. Well, we're looking forward to following you. Where can we follow your work? >> Yeah. So, um, if you're interested in my geopolitical analysis, I write on Substack. So, it's predictive history Substack. Okay. It's I'm pretty easy to find. I'm pretty easy to find if you are on Substack. Um, I also have a Twitter account. umang um and then I also have a YouTube channel channel channel as you as you mentioned um so but if you really want to um know more about my job analysis then the best place is substack >> okay good we'll put the links to Substack and YouTube down below you've written a bunch of interesting stuff so please check it out thank you very much for coming on the show once again Jen appreciate it >> okay well thanks for for having me it's it's been a great conversation >> thank you for watching don't forget to like subscribe follow Jen down below.
'Controlled Implosion Of The Economy' And End Of Democracy Explained | Xueqin Jiang
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the economy's headed towards disaster. There's really no way around it. It's going to crash at some point and everyone's closing their eyes and praying it doesn't crash. It's completely engineered by the tech companies. When that happens, then the people cry for a king. A king can unite them against the arch. And what a king does is often cancel that. I think over the next year, you will see these major signals. You will see a more strengthened relationship between China and United States. very fast from 2028, Trump runs as the vice president for the Rep Republican party and Obama runs the vice as vice presidential candidate for the Democratic party. It doesn't really matter who's who's at top top of the ticket because it's really Obama versus Trump. And in that scenario, Trump wins easily against Obama. >> I'm pleased to welcome back the show X Shu Jing Jang, host of Predictive History on YouTube and Substack. Check out his work, YouTube channel link down below. He's got a great channel and a lot of interesting information there. Welcome back to the show, Shu. I'm excited to talk to you today about uh China and the US uh the AI bubble in the in the tech sector and as well the uh future of uh digital currencies in the west. So very varied topics today, very top of mind topics. Welcome back. >> Thanks a lot, David. Um thanks thanks for inviting me back. >> Yeah, for sure. We had a great conversation about the Middle East last time. Uh Jen was on and he talked about uh what he thinks is going to happen with the uh with not just the Middle East, but the world. Check out the link down below for our last interview. And uh you know, potentially we're looking at a third world war. Let's pivot from that today and talk about first China and the US. As you know, this week Jen uh President President Trump and President Xi of China met to discuss um a new trade deal and some some uh secessions were made on both sides. On China's side, they agreed to not uh ban the export of certain critical minerals and uh on the US side, they've lowered tariffs a little bit. Um and additionally, China agreed to buy again US soybeans. So, this is a good step forward. Uh markets in the US uh didn't respond negatively to this, although there wasn't a huge surge either. In your opinion, was this significant progress or are we just treading on, you know, the same ground here? Keep in mind that there was supposed to be a 100% tariff starting November [snorts] 1st today, but obviously that's no longer happening. >> Yeah. So, I'm very optimistic about this relationship. So, I think that um President Trump and President C meeting for the first time in 78 years. Um it's it's mark a major turnaround in USChina relations. I believe that in the next uh year or two we will see a major approachment between China and the United States. And the reason is very simple. Uh these nations are independent on each other. Um China needs the US market and the US needs Chinese to buy US dollars. Uh it's that simple. Um so I think for the past 7 8 years there was a lot of posturing going going around. And we have to remember in the first Trump term um the relationship is very different from the second Trump term. In the first um Trump term there was a lot of animosity between the two sides. So, as you may recall, um, uh, the United States, uh, kicked out Chinese journalists and, uh, China retaliated by kicking out, um, American journalists from the New York Times, Washington Western Washington Western Washington Western Washington Western Washington Western Washington Western Washington Western Washington Western Washington Western Washington Western Washington Post and Wall Street Journal and they've never returned. Um, the Chinese have closed a um, American consulate. Um, the Americans canled the Peace Corps in in China. So, there was a lot of animosity between these two sides and we don't see that in the second term. So I am very optimistic um about this relationship uh improving over the next year. So remember that um President Trump is scheduled to visit China um in April of next year and then President C will visit United States for a conference in December. And so I think that over next year behind the scenes a lot of major issues will be will be hashed out and we'll see an improved status between China and United States. >> Yes. Uh so why even issue the threat of a 100% tariff in the first place from Trump's side that is >> yeah so we have to remember that Trump has a unique governing style uh he comes from reality TV he comes from the world wrestling entertainment system so he likes bluster um you know before a big showdown you know everyone all the actors make a big talk make huge threats to draw attention and that's what Trump did in this in this situation um no one really thought that Trump would actually go through with the 100% tariffs. Um, if you just watch the markets, um, people were already factoring in the fact that Trump will tackle, right? Uh, that Trump would ultimately cave in and so and that's why we didn't see a surge in markets after the the meeting because everyone just um price down um it already ends. So, yeah, that's what Trump is known for. He's known for bluster and he's going to keep on doing this, right? remember um what Trump's like like li likes to do is um play things up before um um I mean it's basically drama right I mean uh the one thing that you learn in TV is to create as much conflict as possible and then find a resolution and that's what he did here [snorts] >> okay we have to look at what's ahead for not just the US's economy and um administration but also what's ahead for China is about to issue in full their 15th 5-year plan. Um, they've drafted up recommendations, but as I'm aware right now, they haven't yet released the details in full yet. Uh, a blueprint is being drafted. Recommendations have been announced. Um, this is this is some of their recommendations. Now, again, the full details haven't yet been released. Um, it's they're meeting end of October, which I believe is now. Greater sci-fi tech reliance is one of them. Broader opening up. According to pro uh commerce minister Wang Wen Tao ch China will take the initiative to open more broadly in the next 5 years focusing on the services sectors. Efforts will be made to expand market access. Um this is kind of uh building modernized industrial system is another one and um we we this is this is the information released by the uh state council of the people's republic of China so far. Uh, do you have any more information about this? And generally speaking, what are you looking forward to for China's development in the next 5 years? >> Look, I I'll be very blunt with you, David. I don't really pay much attention to these 5-year plans like these modernization efforts, focus on AI, uh, creating, um, you know, a modernized financial economy. And the reason why is that China has has always had a problem, and it's this pro it's a consistent problem for the past 4,000 years, which is an inefficient allocation of capital. Whenever you have state planning going on, um the capital always goes to those who are most well connected to the system. So those who are most um those who are closest to power and the the capital doesn't go to those who are the most energetic, the most innovative, um those who are going to actually produce the product. And this this has been consistent problem in the state planning system in China for for the past 4,000 years. And so um they talk they talk a bit big game but the reality is that um capital has been monopolized by the powerful and um there really um isn't that much incentive for Chinese to innovate. I mean that's just the reality on the ground in China. >> There there is a vibrant tech sector right now in China that some say is even rivaling the US. I mean how clearly there there there's been some success in innovating right? China of course has as you know for example the world's largest EV production right now uh world's largest solar panel production so on and so forth I'm just naming a few things um so some would argue that this is kind of working no >> well I mean I mean we we can have this argument back and forth but if you look at the EV sector um specifically then what a lot of Chinese economists will tell you is that there's overprouction in the system and the reason why is just government subsidies have been flooding the system and so China needs to export these cars because China doesn't have the domestic capacity to um to to to buy up these these cars and that's why uh the Europeans are kind of angry about the situation because China's dumping these cars in the European market at very cheap rates. Uh it's very it's it's debatable whether or not even China makes money off of these cars and it's destroying the European car sector. So, so that's why people are kind of angry at China right now. Um, but but again, I think the problem is that you have over capacity, you have uh poor planning uh which produces um excess capacity. >> There's these pictures of Xi Jinping shaking hands with Trump now apparently they're best friends or something like that. The bigger question right now is uh Jen, what is she's ultimate ambition and what does Trump want for himself and for America? ultimately do these objectives or ambitions clash or can they work together in the next few years? >> Right? So um in in geopolitics I think a general rule that always applies is that the conflict within nation states is always greater more intense than the conflict between nation states. So what I mean by that is that both President C and President Trump are looking to consolidate their domestic power bases and they do that by ensuring that those who are loyal to them are inserted into positions of power and so that's what both are doing and they're both using uh the these ch US China trade talks. They're both using the geopolitical landscape in order to uh achieve this goal. So for President C um it's very simple. He wants to continue to consolidate his power base within China and he wants a more um stable relationship with the United States. Those are those are his two major policy goals for the next two four two to four years. [snorts] Before we continue with the video, let's talk about our sponsor today, ODU. ODO is a complete business management suite trusted by over 15 million users across the globe. Whether you're a freelancer or scaling a growing company, ODU brings everything into one place. Sales, CRM, accounting, inventory, HR, project management, and more. It's all fully centralized and integrated. Your CRM connects to your invoicing, your sales flow into your inventory, and your HR tools sync with payroll. Everything communicates in real time, reducing manual tasks and errors. And ODU grows with your business. Start with one app for free with unlimited hosting and support. Then add more as you scale. When you're ready to go allin, access the full suite starting at just $24.90 per month. Check out the link in the description down below to try odu and simplify your business operations. But is it true though that China has ambitions to become a a global superpower both economically and militarily? And if so, does that mean that there's going to be collision between the Chinese and the US? >> Yeah. So, at the beginning of President C's term, he introduced a concept called the China dream. And it's a very ambiguous, very nebulous concept. And people have been debating back and forth what this concept means. Uh, Western commentators believe that the China dream is for China to rise in the world stage and take a more assertive role um to basically um shape the world according to China's needs and ambitions. I disagree with this assessment. I think the China dream really is about maintaining national sovereignty about maintaining ter territorial integrity. This means um ensuring that China that sorry this means ensuring that Taiwan does not declare independence. That's a very important part of the China dream. But I think primarily China is concerned about its own domestic issues and maintaining um its uh national sovereignty and that in and that includes um negotiating with America and other great powers on a peer-to-peer basis. That's what the China means. >> Do you think that China in the opening up phase if it opens up even more could risk uh destabilizing itself? In other words, uh the government may risk some sort of revolution whereby people demand a democracy. >> Um that's not likely in China. Um the I mean democracy is a foreign concept in China. There isn't really much of an appetite for democracy. What people in China want is um stability. They want um some prosperity, but but they're willing to, you know, the Chinese term is chool, eat bitter. Um, so they don't have to live they don't have to have the have the American lifestyle of like, you know, air conditioning, two SUVs, their own house, but they they want uh life to be stable, harmonious, and that's really the the ch the Chinese dream. So, China doesn't really want that much. Um, yeah. >> Okay, let's talk about what's happening with the US then, and uh the future of the US. This is an interesting article from uh NPR. Hundreds of scholars say the US is swiftly heading towards authoritarianism. A survey of more than 500 political scientists find that the vast majority think the United States is moving swiftly from liberal democracy towards some sort of authoritarianism. In the benchmark survey known as Bright Line Watch, a US-based professor uh US-based professors rate the performance of American democracy on a scale from zero complete dictatorship to 100, which is perfect democracy. I'm not even sure what a perfect democracy means, but okay. After President Trump's election in November, scholars gave American democracy rating of 67. Uh several weeks into Trump's second term, that figure plummeted to 55. Okay. Um I I I haven't seen the details of this particular survey, it could just be partisan, but if you just to look at things objectively, is there any truth to some of the sentiment here? >> Well, I mean, again, if you look at the um first Trump term, you compare it to the second Trump term, it's night and day. Remember in the first Trump term there was vocal disscent uh in the streets there were violent they weren't violent protests but there were lots of protests against the Trump presidency. Um the the media attack Trump every day. Remember uh back in the first uh Trump term, there's something called the Russia gate, right? Uh Robert Mueller, a former FBI director, a conduct investigation to see whether or not Trump was an was a Russian agent. Um and even within Trump's cabinet, there was vocal disscent. Remember Mark Millie, the um former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff um basically said that he told the Chinese, he called the Chinese and said, "Don't worry about this guy. We know he is a bit unpredictable, but uh we're we have control here. We're like everything's under our control, right? So Trump really didn't really have that much power and he was always on the defensive. Um the Democrats impeach him twice. Um you know, after Trump um lost the midterms, the Democrats immediately started impeaching proceedings. So um Trump was really on the defensive in the first term. On the second term, it's a complete opposite. Trump very much is on the offensive. um these ICE rates um it's really debatable what these ICE rates are about right because you just look at deport deportation numbers the absolute number of deportation under Trump is still lower than that under Obama so um what's ICE for and some people speculated that ICE is meant to be um a imionic secret police they're testing out the possibility of a secret police now you also have have you know the National Guard being deployed to Democratic strongholds like Portland and Chicago and there's talk of next year, Trump deploying the National Guard to all all states and now there's talk of um war against Venezuela in the Middle East uh possibly Ukraine and so and so that gives Trump emergency war powers. Uh Trump has has discussed the possibility of invoking the insurrection act. Uh Trump has played around the idea of running for a third term. I don't know how he'll do that, but I believe that given everything that we've seen so far, I think he has the intention of possibly running for a third term. So, um, we're seeing a rapid decline democracy in America. I think it's very hard to, uh, to miss. What's really depressing to see though is the lack of opposition. So, the Democratic party has not been able to sustain, um, opposition against Trump and we, we can see that from the government shutdown. The like, has anyone noticed that the the government has shut down? Um, do people realize that there are there will be millions of millions Americans who will not receive food stamps and they will starve and there will be possibly riots. um you know given the possibility of civil unrest and possibly civil war, you would think the Democrats would want to quickly come to an agreement with the Trump administration, but not they're not doing that. They're just like sitting back and wait and waiting for the chaos to erupt so that can win the midterms in um November, but next sorry next November. But who says there will be midterms next November? So um there's really a lack of strategic foresight from the Democrats. They're very passive and because there's no effective opposition, Trump can basically do whatever he wants. Okay. Uh but obviously the American people or the people in the west would not accept an authoritarian authoritarian uh dictatorship or even a monarchy if the opportunity presented itself, right? If people voted, hey, you have here uh a republic or you could choose between a monarchy or some sort of dictatorship. I mean, I don't What do you think is going to happen? Well, look, look, I mean, you can make the legitimate argument that the choice isn't between monarchy and democracy. The choice is between monarchy and olararchy. You can make the argument that America has not been has democracy for a long time. Ever since 2008, financial crisis when Obama bailed out the oligarchs and screwed over the people. Um, and you had co which even further economic inequalities. Um and so you can make the argument that for the past 101 15 years America has transitioned into a full scale arch and you just you can just look at what what's happening in the American economy where and the only thing that's that's up is the stock market and and only only about like you know 1% or the top 10% or 90% of American stocks. So the system is geared specifically towards the top 10%. Member has become an argu if you look at historically when that happens then the people cry for a king. Why? Because first of all a king can unite them against the oligarchy and what a king does is often cancel debt right um the king his first act is often a jubilee where he cancels the debts of the people and the other thing that he will do is redistribute wealth primarily land in a way that uh furthers the interests of of the people. So, if you're an American citizen, okay, if you're just an average American citizen, you're heavily in debt, you know, you have a mortgage, you have credit card um debt, you're facing delinquency, your economic prospects aren't that great, would you prefer the system to stay as it is, or would you prefer a king? Um, I would say most people would choose a king. So, so, so I I'll make you So, so so, so it's possible that in 2028, it's very possible in 2028, Trump runs as the vice president for the Rep Republican party and Obama runs the vice as vice presidential candidate for the Democratic party. It doesn't really matter who's who's at top top of the ticket because it's really Obama versus Trump. And in that scenario, Trump wins easily against Obama. >> Interesting. Well, you've called Trump's win. So, let's see what happens again in 2028. uh that that I don't is that is that legal though for a for a for a president to have run two terms to run third time as a vice president? I I have to look into that. Comment below if you know what the legalities of that. Yeah. >> Look, the famous thing is that it's wrong. It's immoral. >> It's unconventional, but it's not >> illegal. Okay. I mean, so the the US the US political system is built on consensus, on norms, on certain values that people share together. So you have someone like like Trump come in. and he actually doesn't share any of these values. There's very little the political system can do against this this sort of person. >> Let's talk about stocks. Now, you mentioned the stock market. So, yes, stocks are at all-time highs and especially tech stocks that are leading the charge. Tech is accounting for most of the gains. Tech is accounting for most of the capex spending in uh the S&P 500. And just today I learned from another economist I was speaking to that without data centers GDP growth in uh the first quarter was only about 0.1%. If you take that out >> so tell us about your views on uh tech and AI and the markets. >> Look look I'm not an industry so I I don't even know what I read in the news but what the news tells me is number one you have certain AI companies that are financing each other. So, um, it's it's essentially a bubble that they have to all prop up in order to survive. Number two is that people have not figured out how to make money off AI yet. You know, Samwin recently came out and said that uh um, you know, open AI was will allow sexing, right? That's that's a sign of desperation. It it just it's just telling people that uh, Chachi BBT they haven't really been able to monetize it properly. In fact, what what I've heard um what I've read is that for every new subscriber, CHATP loses money. Um it it's just a money losing proposition. Okay, that's number two. They haven't figured out how to make money. Now, third thing, and you point this out, is the extra cost of these data centers. Uh they're extremely expensive to run and they suck up all communities uh fresh water and electricity resources. Americans are seeing their electricity cost skyrocket. Why? because of because these data centers are uh so expensive to uh to run. And so you have this weird situation where the entire economy is just basically the AI bubble and these corporations um are using government subsidies in order to build these data centers in order to exploit the water and electricity resources of a community and then passing on to consumer and they still don't know how to make money off this thing. So um I mean I mean the economy's headed towards disaster. There's really no um way around it. And so the question then is can the Americans manage an implode sorry can the Americans manage a controlled implosion of the economy and [snorts] that's why I think we're seeing a lot of talks of civil war of social unrest because if there's social unrest then you it's possible for you to do a controlled implosion economy otherwise everything just blows up in your face. You know, there's this um um journalist uh Andrew Sorcin who's going around who's going around talking about 1929. You know, he's getting a lot of coverage and he's saying, "Look, we're heading towards another stock market crash." And this sounds like predictive programming to me. It's preparing people for the possibility of a major financial implosion within the United States. And this financial implosion is something that that they want to manage in order to reduce the um repercussions and consequences. So you think this whole bubble is somewhat engineered by the tech companies or I don't know what what's what's causing >> Yeah, it's completely engineered by the tech companies, right? So if you if you look at um the financing, it's these companies lending money to each other. It's like I give you a billion dollars for a puppy and then you give me the and then I buy and then you and then um you give me a billion dollars for my I don't know >> [laughter] >> It's circular financing. You're right. It's it's it's it's companies investing in each other um taking stakes in each other and becoming bigger as as either monopolies or like you said earlier all the goalies. But isn't that good for for investors at least in the short term? I mean we're we're we're everybody they're lifting the entire the the high tide is lifting all boats here, right? They're lifting the entire market. >> Look the reality is that America and China are moving toward the same model which is state planning, right? state financing and again the issue that you have is an inefficient allocation of capital. The money should be going to small-time entrepreneurs to you know build restaurants to build businesses that employ people. Uh the reality is that AI uh the irony is that the more successful AI is, the more the economy loses jobs, right? So Amazon has announced it's going to lay off like 30,000 workers. And this is just just the like, you know, tip tip tip of the spear, you know, like like if AI really works, then you ideally uh you would um um reduce employment by like millions and millions of people. So that's the paradox that America is um finding itself in. If AI doesn't work, the economy uh implodes. But if AI does work, then everyone loses um his or her job. That's kind of ridiculous situation to be in. >> So is there what would trigger this pop in the bubble? >> Well, I mean again, it's engineered, right? So it's a controlled implosion. So basically, it's basically these companies getting together with the banks and saying, you know what, uh let's cash out now. Okay? And that's what we saw in the 2008 um uh financial crisis, right? Because remember it was an engineered collapse because everyone knew that uh the system was unsustainable. Uh these banks were heavily in debt because of CDOS's and all that. But but what really started the crisis was the fact that you had these big hedge fund managers um taking out uh bets against uh these cos. So basically an engineer collapse. Goldman Sachs were make was making a lot of money off uh cos but what they realized is they can make even more money betting against their own cos and that's what happened. I mean Goldman Sachs got ridiculously wealthy off the collapse and that's something that people don't really discuss even though it was Goldman Sachs who created the crisis and it was Goldman uh Sachs who created the collapse. Right now, the markets are not signaling any sort of economic problems, right? Um, everything's going to all-time highs and there doesn't seem to be a lot of volatility. Doesn't seem to be a lot of fear in the markets. Do you think that sentiment is an accurate reflection? >> Um, well, I mean, everyone has their head in the sand because if you are an institutional investor, right, if you're a pension fund, [laughter] if if if you're like, you know, Black Rockck, Vanguard, like like what can you do about this situation, right? I mean it's it it's just like pray and um hope nothing uh happens. Um so you know this reminds me of a joke where you know this car is spiraling down a mountain at you know 100 miles per hour and the pass the guy in the passenger seat is like has closed his eyes and they land safely and then the passenger says to driver how are you able to stay calm all this time and the driver says well I have my eyes closed as well. Okay. And that's the situation we we are in. The entire stock market, the entire economy, the entire financial sector, it's this car spiraling down a mountain 100 miles per hour. It's going to crash at some point and everyone's closing their eyes and praying it doesn't crash. >> The other development is the introduction of um the Genius Act over the summer. So, stable coins will be backed by US treasuries is what the act states and uh this may be a precursor to uh state issuance of stable coins. Um and more broadly there's a large movement right now to tokenize a lot of real world assets and securities not just by the state level but also by large institutions. Black Rockck for example. So tell us about uh the digit digitization of financial assets and whether or not that's going to change your assessment here. >> Yeah. So um I think digital currency tokenization it's all just a fancy workar around the idea of financial repression. Right. So when you have an economy in this sort of situation where a lot of people are in debt, where the market is overheated, you need to control financial transactions and the way you do that is by creating a lot of friction within the um um within these thesections. This is something that China has been doing for the past 2 to four years. And listen, it's been remarkably successful. Um and and so as long as you have financial repression, as long as people can't ever, you know, do a run on the banks, that that's a metaphor, but they they don't do a run on on the banks anymore. But if they can't do a run on the banks, then the system is still stable and the system can still chuck along even though it's basically semicomaos. Um so that's the idea of digital currency. The problem though is how do you get people to agree to digital currency to trade like to stop using cash? You can do that in China because of co right because the co crisis created this implosion of the financial economy and it forced people to stay at homes and it forced people to use um software as a means of u daily transactions. So the most common thing was just to um get delivery people to mail groceries and um goods to your house and so that's what start the introduction of digital currency. So America needs to manufacture a crisis in order to fully introduce digital currency. Are you bullish then on currencies, digital currencies, cryptos, all cryptos, or just certain ones? >> Well, I mean, listen, I'm not wealthy, so if I had a choice, I put all my resource into the US dollar because if the economy gets worse, if there's wars that break out, um, I still think the US dollar gives me mobility, uh, gives me flexibility. Um, all the currencies are based on the dollar. Okay? I mean, it doesn't make sense for me to buy gold or Bitcoin because I'm not an institutional investor. I'm not a long-term investor. Um, [snorts] and I don't have that much wealth, but >> this is an interesting topic that I want to ask you about. Uh, the the tokenization of the fiat dollars, meaning putting it on a stable coin. Would your life change? Would your life be better if let's say the dollars that you have are put in the blockchain. And let's say, suppose you don't have a bank account because you no longer need a bank account. Everything you have is in stable coins. You just put it in a cold wallet or a hot wallet. you self- custody your own money and uh you're able to send money and receive money from anywhere in the world without friction instantaneously. Would that would that be a future you like? >> Yeah, that's a great point. And listen listen, I have to say this. I live in China. I've been living in China for a long time. The introduction of digital currency has made my life so much more convenient, right? Because now um every transaction is seamless. I go to restaurants, I use my app to pick the the the items I want on the menu and then I pay with my app. It's so easy and it's so safe because I I'm never afraid of losing cash. You know, um you know, thieves are out of a job in in China. The problem though is what the government could do with this power, right? Because it's very feasible that, you know, he says something stupid online and I have a tendency to do that and the government says, "You know what? We're going to teach you a lesson. So, we're going to freeze this account for for the next week, right? they can do that with pro with with programmable digital currency. So I'm lucky in that that hasn't happened to me but you know there are people who who who face this issue in in China and so >> everywhere in the world happening in Canada >> possibly everywhere in the world possibly everywhere in the world right so that's that's a that so with digital currency you're giving basically all your power to government because you've um eliminated anominity from the economy okay that's that's that's a concern with with digital currency so yeah it makes your life more convenient but it gives the government so much power over you as the individual. Also, remember digital currency can be controlled. So, the government can actually track all your behavior and limit the way you spend your money. Um, I mean that sounds great because listen, that means you can't gamble. That means you can't buy alcohol. That means you cannot buy cigarettes. It's aligned with government policy and you know the entire purpose is to make you a more healthy uh person. But at the end of the day, that destroys the social contract, right? That destroys all your individual agency. that destroys the entire idea of um individuality. So, is that a future we want? >> Yeah, I guess good point. So, uh all right. Uh it seems like we've got uh a lot of problems to ponder. Shoo. Uh but uh let's end on this note. Anything that you're looking forward to in terms of the development of not just our economy but society uh that will greatly improve our standard of living if there is such a thing? Yeah, listen, I think that this USChina relationship is key because um you know, China has all this excess cheap labor labor that it needs to um export and remember before um the trade war that started that Trump started in his first term um Chinese goods flowing to United States allowed Americans a higher standard of living. >> [snorts] >> Um and so now that you remove um Chinese goods or mo most Chinese goods then inflation has gone up. So the situation is that China is facing deflation, America's facing inflation. So I think that if US China relations weren't improve and China [snorts] was able to export um this deflation o uh overseas then people's standard of living would improve drastically and so that's something I'm looking forward to. I think over the next year you will see these major signals that the US China is uh reaching a reproachment and it's entirely possible that you will see a more strengthened relationship between China and United States. Listen, at the end of the day, China and states are status quo powers. They want things to stay the same. Russia, Iran, North Korea, Venezuela, these are these are revisionist powers. They want things to change. And so um the United States and China benefit from working from working with each other as opposed to funding each other. And I think that's something that both nations have come come to an inclus have come to understand after many years of fighting. So I'm looking forward to that. >> Okay. Good. All right. Thank you very much. Well, we're looking forward to following you. Where can we follow your work? >> Yeah. So, um, if you're interested in my geopolitical analysis, I write on Substack. So, it's predictive history Substack. Okay. It's I'm pretty easy to find. I'm pretty easy to find if you are on Substack. Um, I also have a Twitter account. umang um and then I also have a YouTube channel channel channel as you as you mentioned um so but if you really want to um know more about my job analysis then the best place is substack >> okay good we'll put the links to Substack and YouTube down below you've written a bunch of interesting stuff so please check it out thank you very much for coming on the show once again Jen appreciate it >> okay well thanks for for having me it's it's been a great conversation >> thank you for watching don't forget to like subscribe follow Jen down below.