Bitcoin And MSTR Are Crashing (What You Need To Know)
Summary
MicroStrategy (MSTR): Extensive discussion of MSTR crashing and trading at a discount to NAV, highlighting sharp volatility and a shift from a prior premium.
NAV Gap Mechanics: To close the discount, options include selling Bitcoin, issuing more 10% preferreds, or taking on more debt, with common equity issuance seen as dilutive and ineffective.
Bitcoin: Bitcoin weakness is linked to fears MSTR may become a net seller, creating a potential feedback loop between BTC prices and MSTR’s NAV discount.
Financing Risk: The company’s underlying software business reportedly lacks positive cash flow, making a 10% preferred cost steep relative to a ~4% 10-year Treasury, and increasing reliance on BTC appreciation.
Doom Loop Risk: If BTC falls, MSTR’s NAV declines further, potentially forcing asset sales or higher-cost financing, amplifying pressure on both BTC and MSTR.
Positioning Insight: The speaker disclosed being long Bitcoin for purchasing power outside the system and short MSTR on premium-to-NAV compression, a trade that has worked recently.
Investor Caution: Warns against hype-driven concentration and leverage, noting recent heavy losses for late entrants despite MSTR’s longer-term gains.
Transcript
Hello fellow Rebel Capitals. Hope you are well. So, Micro Strategy or Strategy, whichever one you prefer, is absolutely crashing today, going below NAV, net asset value. It was trading at a huge premium and everyone thought there was a great reason for it trading at a premium. And Rebel Capitalists, me included, said, "H, I don't know." So, I actually had a short position on Micro Strategy in full disclosure. I'll talk about that more in just a moment. But let's go into what is happening right now and what this means because it's not just about the price the price crash, excuse me. It's more so about it trading under NAV and how are they going to close the gap or are they going to try to close the discount to NAV? what are their options? And I think one of their options is maybe one of the reasons that Bitcoin is crashing today as well, which could turn into this doom loop, right? That we all need to be aware of. I know most of you are interested in Bitcoin. I actually own Bitcoin, not because the price going to a million or anything like that, but I believe that it's great to have purchasing power outside of the system. And quite frankly, I don't know of any better purchasing power to have outside the system than Bitcoin, especially if you your plan B includes multiple countries. But anyway, let's stay on topic here. So Josh just got done swiping on Tinder or Josh, was it Grinder? Were you on Tinder or Grinder this time? >> We need to break the allegations, George. That's all anyone cares about now. It's not Grinder. No, no, no. You're not. You're We can't hear you, Josh. Your internet reception's really bad because I think you're still in the closet. [laughter] You get it? See, that was a good joke. That was a good joke. All right, let's get into what's happening here with Micro Strategy. Let's go to I I just can't call it strategy. There's I'm sorry for for those of you who are huge Sailor fans or whatever. I apologize, but I just can't get myself to call it strategy. Okay, so today we hit a 52 week low. Now, it's bounced a little bit. I mean, it's still down 4.68. Oh, that's in the last 5 days, excuse me. Let's go to today. Just today, it's down 5.64%. So, and you can see the volatility just as we're talking. The price is just kind of going like this. uh earlier it got below 110 like we said 109.36 and it is officially trading under the net asset value so a discount to NAV is how the the pros would say that now the whole market is trading risk off I mean risk off risk off risk off so I mean but I think this is taking it to an extreme so now let's see what's happening with Bitcoin and then we're going to circle back to Micro Strategy. So, there is a daily chart of Bitcoin. Yikes. Woohoo. Down. I mean, the chart looks a lot worse, but it's only down 2.9% when strategy is down, you know, 5.5, 5.6. And I want to highlight it's down under a 100,000, which I think kind of psychologically is key. But where I'm going with this or partially what I'm talking about is Micro Strategy has as far as I can tell has about three options to close the discount to NAV to bring that back up to where the shares are trading or its market cap is equivalent to the Bitcoin that it has on its balance sheet. And number one is they could sell Bitcoin, their Bitcoin, some of their Bitcoin to go ahead and raise cash to buy the shares back. Then number two, they could just continue to offer these preferred uh shares. I don't know how long they can do that when they're paying 10, 11%. And let's remember that their underlying business really doesn't make money. I I think people forget that. I think people assume that the underlying business, which is like a software business, I think they assume that they just throw off like a hundred million a year in cash. No, they don't. They don't. Last time I checked, they had uh negative cash flow. So, they were not cash flow or however you say that in technical terms. I'm just a real estate guy, so I say negative or positive cash flow. So, uh, I I don't know that they do make a profit and I don't think they have positive cash flow in order to pay off the 10% dividend. So, if and when that comes due, I don't know, 2027, 2028, you know, what they were planning on doing is just they would have made so many gains from Bitcoin appreciating that they just would have borrowed against that Bitcoin in order to pay the dividend on the preferreds. But if Bitcoin is going down and you're I don't know what their uh average price of purchase would be, who know you guys probably know that better than I do, but at a certain point you're you would be below that. And so then they could just issue more debt. That would be the third option or the third main option. They just issue more debt, but then [laughter] okay, it kind of puts you in the same spot. Or you could issue more equity. uh more common stock, but then that runs the risk of, you know, diluting even further and you're not going to be able to close that gap even if you raise the money. So, yeah, exactly. So, I'm just as I'm saying this, you know, think that through. So, you would issue more common shares to buy those common shares back. That's not going to work. So, really, you're just left with more preferred more debt or selling the Bitcoin. And I think that because there's above zero% probability that he might have to sell Bitcoin, I think that's one of the reasons why Bitcoin is going down so much because think about it. I mean, Sailor was buying like what 510 billion dollar a week in Bitcoin. So, not only would you not have that bid, but you would have a seller. I I don't know. I mean, I think I have no idea how far down the price of Bitcoin could go, but if it goes down based on this possibility, then what does that do to Micro Strategy and the shares? So, let's get into some more numbers here. And by the way, I will fully admit I am not an expert on the financial engineering. Um, in fact, I'm actually proud of that that I'm not a financial engineer. [laughter] I don't I I think Sailor tries to use that term uh as a positive, but I don't know. For me, that's that's not really a negative. Excuse me, that's not really a positive uh way to describe something. That that for me is a negative. But anyway, let's get over into people who are supposedly experts on this. So, this is according to Yahoo Finance. This was November 6. Strategy won't face Bitcoin liquidation according to expert as Micro Strategy crashes 7%. Again, this was November 5th, excuse me. Um, today is November 13th. So, some reports suggest Sailor Strategy could sell its Bitcoin to cover debt during the next crypto. Okay, so now they're just talking about the the debt payment. Um I think they're assuming that they're not going to have to sell Bitcoin. Let's keep reading here. To avoid selling Bitcoin for that payment. They're not even co talking about the discount yet. Isn't that amazing how quickly things can change? This whole story is about how on earth are they going to get the money to make the debt payments or to pay the preferreds. It's not even talking about how they could raise the money to close the gap because even what six, seven days ago, it was trading at such a premium that the experts weren't even weren't even contemplating it trading below NAV. So to avoid selling its bitcoin holdings repayment uh for repayment micro strategy stock must trade above 183. Uh just as a reminder today we got down to 209 and the market has not yet closed. Uh this level roughly corresponds with a Bitcoin price around 91,000. And just as a reminder, we're at 98. But you know another thing that I'm that's going through my mind here as we go as we go through this is he says that it would have to trade at 183 which would be a bitcoin price of 91 to assume that it's mav or the uh the multiple net asset value I guess that's what they call the mnav would be above one meaning that it would be trading at NAV, but we're not at 183 and we're not at 91 and it's trading at a discount to NAV. So, be very careful [laughter] about the experts. Okay, so this guy said that liquidation is unlikely in the next bare market. Okay, how about in the next week? Bitcoin analyst, the Bitcoin therapist, also shared a similar view. He stated that Bitcoin would need to perform horribly in the next market downturn for Strategy to be forced into selling its Bitcoin holdings. Maybe perform horribly in the next downturn, but maybe we're not going to get to the next market downturn. Uh, you know, may [laughter] maybe the next market downturn is a lot sooner than you think. That's my point here. In the latest development strategy announced a proposed initial public offering of 3.5 million shares of its 10% series A perpetual stream ticker symbol S St that carry face value of a hundred dollars or pounds whatever uh and offer cumulative dividend annual rate of 10%. I I've heard a lot of people out there saying that are really really like hyperbulls for Micro Strategy kind of just coping and rationalizing this downturn by saying, "Oh, well, this is trading at 100 cents on the dollar and therefore nothing to see here. We shouldn't worry about this." I I don't know. I I guess they've got a point, but I would highlight the fact that you're having to pay a dividend of 10% while the 10-year Treasury is trading at four. So, the fact that you've got to pay a 10% dividend to begin with, 6% [laughter] over the 10-year Treasury yield. I don't know. I I don't know that that's actually a a bullish argument. Now, crypto analyst Alli Martinez noted that mass MS micro strategy stock continues to mirror its previous price fractal. No idea what that means. According to him, if the pattern holds, the next potential move could see the stock drop to around $100. I mean, Micro Strategy goes to 100. That's a lot lower than 181. Uh yeah, I I don't I don't know how. I mean, I I guess it could drop to 100 and he wouldn't have to sell Bitcoin because at the end of the day, I mean, he could just say, "Screw it. We're who cares if we trade at a 30% discount to NAV. It is what it is." I mean, maybe that's what he'll do. Or maybe he'll just try to take on more debt. But if he's taking more debt while Bitcoin is going down, I mean, he's gonna have to pay a hefty sum for that debt. or if he's issuing more preferreds, he's likely going to have to pay a higher interest rate than the 10%. Uh I don't know, maybe not. Maybe not because that would uh if he's got to pay more than 10% right now, maybe it wouldn't be trading at 100 cents on the dollar. So maybe he can just issue more and more and more at 10%. But I to buy back the shares. But I don't know that that's a real awesome thing because again at some point he's got to pay the 10%. And it ain't coming out of the the profit of the business because there is no profit. The only place it could come from is an appreciation of the Bitcoin price above and beyond is average price of purchase. So this is the problem with financial engineering. Like like on the way up you look like a genius, but [laughter] on the way down in in hindsight you you look like a well, you guys know what you look like. I I I hate to say anything bad, you know, kick people when they're down or anything, but I think this is a really big story. Uh I do because assuming this continues to trade at a discount, he he's got very few options here, assuming that he wants to close that gap. And again, maybe he doesn't. Maybe he doesn't. But assuming he does, I mean, maybe he just issues more common shares. And well, no, he wouldn't do that again. I'm just making that same mistake. No, he he he can't do that. He's got to just sell more preferred and hope that doesn't impact the price of the common stock or issue more debt and hope you can get it at a decent rate on decent terms and hope that that doesn't I mean if you're having to borrow money to buy your shares back just because your shares are trading at a discount to NAV. I mean, how does the market see that as far as counterparty risk? And if the argument here is that, oh, this is just temporary and Micro Strategy is just going to keep on trucking and doing what they're doing, okay, fine. But even if they're able to continue doing what they're doing and buying more Bitcoin, what they're doing has resulted in the price for the common equity holder going down by 32% in the last month. So, I mean, even if they can keep doing what they're doing, at least in recent history, that hasn't worked. In the last 6 months, it's down 50%. So, if you can keep doing what you were doing that resulted in a in down six 50% over 6 months, I I don't know that that's a bullish argument. So, but I think what's even more interesting about this is if they're put into a position where they have to sell Bitcoin to to bring to get the cash together to close the gap and then what that does to the price of Bitcoin and then what type of feedback loop do you get with the price of Micro Strategy and the price relative to NAV. In fact, even as we're talking here, the price is plummeting. I mean, we started off the live stream and it was around 2, what was it? 211, 212, and now we're down at 209. It's trading under 210, and we still have 45 minutes or so left in trading. So, I have no idea where this ends the day, but I think the the moral of the story here is that financial engineering rarely ends well. It rarely ends well. Will he come out looking like a hero this time? Maybe. Maybe. But maybe not. You're rolling the dice. And unfortunately, I think people buy into the narrative without really thinking it through. So like if you're a bull on micro strategy, you know, more power to you. More power to you. We just, you know, we have a difference of opinion. It doesn't mean that I think you're stupid. I think I I know some very very smart people who are bullish smarter than I am that are bullish on uh Micro Strategy, but they've done a lot of due diligence and they don't have a 100% of their portfolio allocated to Micro Strategy or they're not buying call options on Micro Strategy. Unfortunately, a lot of the people that I saw on Twitter today, they get caught up in the hysteria. They get caught up in the hype, you know, back in May, June, July with all these Bitcoin treasury companies thinking that this is just a revolution. And oh my gosh, no one's ever thought of just borrowing money to buy an underlying asset that goes up in price. And no one's ever thought of that before. This is genius. but not [clears throat] even realizing that [laughter] this is a story as old as time. I mean, he's sailor or whoever is doing this. They're not this is they're not reinventing the wheel here. This is just something that's been tried over and over and over and over again. And usually it fails and it's just people have forgotten because they're not old enough. all the people that remember how this ends, you know, they're not around anymore. They're retired or whatever it is. So, that's my big problem is when Sailor comes out and says that you need to mortgage your house or whatever to buy Bitcoin or I don't know if he said it about micro strategy. Um, but it gets people hyped and it builds on the hysteria and then it leads people to make really bad decisions. And I'm not talking about just going long micro strategy. I'm talking about taking a 100% of your portfolio and going long micro strategy in July. Because I saw a lot of people online that did that. I saw a lot of people online that said that their biggest position in their portfolio was call options on strategy back in June or July because they just got caught up in the hysteria and now they're who knows how much they're down. And to a certain degree you've got to blame the the pumpers, right? You got to blame the pumpers for that. And I understand that Micro Strategy is up a trillion% in the last 5 years. I get it. I get it. But unfortunately, when you pump a stock like that, the 99% of the people that own it, and I'm probably exaggerating, but maybe 70 80% of the people that own it own it now at a loss because they didn't buy when it was 50 bucks. They bought when it was 400. And that's the part that's unfortunate. But anyway, regardless, we've got to pay attention to this because this could dramatically impact the price of Bitcoin. And I've always said that when I'm going to really really add to my long position in Bitcoin is when Sailor sells. And so, I don't know if he starts selling. [laughter] We'll have to see what happens with the price because that could be a huge huge opportunity to get there, get in there and buy Bitcoin. uh for the long run at a really cheap price. Stay tuned. We'll we'll have to see. And if you want uh to know more about the trades that I make, you can check out Rebel Capitalist Pro. Like I said at the beginning, I've had a short position in Micro Strategy for the last two months or so, maybe the last two, two and a half months. So, I was long Bitcoin and I was short Micro Strategy because my idea, it wasn't my idea. It was really chos where where I first uh heard of it. He was talking about the premium to nav shrinking. And a lot of the guys that I hang out with in St. Barts had the exact same trade on but just structured a little bit different way. So, I put the trade on and notified the members of Rebel Capitalist Pro like I always do. And then I actually added to my short position in micro strategy about two weeks ago. So that's turned out to work extremely extremely well. Uh so if you want more kind of trade ideas or if you want to find out more about Rebel Capitalist Pro, we'll have Josh put a link in the chat and a link in the description of this video. Okay guys, enjoy the rest of your afternoon. As always, make sure you're standing up for freedom, liberty, free market, capitalism. See you in the next video.
Bitcoin And MSTR Are Crashing (What You Need To Know)
Summary
Transcript
Hello fellow Rebel Capitals. Hope you are well. So, Micro Strategy or Strategy, whichever one you prefer, is absolutely crashing today, going below NAV, net asset value. It was trading at a huge premium and everyone thought there was a great reason for it trading at a premium. And Rebel Capitalists, me included, said, "H, I don't know." So, I actually had a short position on Micro Strategy in full disclosure. I'll talk about that more in just a moment. But let's go into what is happening right now and what this means because it's not just about the price the price crash, excuse me. It's more so about it trading under NAV and how are they going to close the gap or are they going to try to close the discount to NAV? what are their options? And I think one of their options is maybe one of the reasons that Bitcoin is crashing today as well, which could turn into this doom loop, right? That we all need to be aware of. I know most of you are interested in Bitcoin. I actually own Bitcoin, not because the price going to a million or anything like that, but I believe that it's great to have purchasing power outside of the system. And quite frankly, I don't know of any better purchasing power to have outside the system than Bitcoin, especially if you your plan B includes multiple countries. But anyway, let's stay on topic here. So Josh just got done swiping on Tinder or Josh, was it Grinder? Were you on Tinder or Grinder this time? >> We need to break the allegations, George. That's all anyone cares about now. It's not Grinder. No, no, no. You're not. You're We can't hear you, Josh. Your internet reception's really bad because I think you're still in the closet. [laughter] You get it? See, that was a good joke. That was a good joke. All right, let's get into what's happening here with Micro Strategy. Let's go to I I just can't call it strategy. There's I'm sorry for for those of you who are huge Sailor fans or whatever. I apologize, but I just can't get myself to call it strategy. Okay, so today we hit a 52 week low. Now, it's bounced a little bit. I mean, it's still down 4.68. Oh, that's in the last 5 days, excuse me. Let's go to today. Just today, it's down 5.64%. So, and you can see the volatility just as we're talking. The price is just kind of going like this. uh earlier it got below 110 like we said 109.36 and it is officially trading under the net asset value so a discount to NAV is how the the pros would say that now the whole market is trading risk off I mean risk off risk off risk off so I mean but I think this is taking it to an extreme so now let's see what's happening with Bitcoin and then we're going to circle back to Micro Strategy. So, there is a daily chart of Bitcoin. Yikes. Woohoo. Down. I mean, the chart looks a lot worse, but it's only down 2.9% when strategy is down, you know, 5.5, 5.6. And I want to highlight it's down under a 100,000, which I think kind of psychologically is key. But where I'm going with this or partially what I'm talking about is Micro Strategy has as far as I can tell has about three options to close the discount to NAV to bring that back up to where the shares are trading or its market cap is equivalent to the Bitcoin that it has on its balance sheet. And number one is they could sell Bitcoin, their Bitcoin, some of their Bitcoin to go ahead and raise cash to buy the shares back. Then number two, they could just continue to offer these preferred uh shares. I don't know how long they can do that when they're paying 10, 11%. And let's remember that their underlying business really doesn't make money. I I think people forget that. I think people assume that the underlying business, which is like a software business, I think they assume that they just throw off like a hundred million a year in cash. No, they don't. They don't. Last time I checked, they had uh negative cash flow. So, they were not cash flow or however you say that in technical terms. I'm just a real estate guy, so I say negative or positive cash flow. So, uh, I I don't know that they do make a profit and I don't think they have positive cash flow in order to pay off the 10% dividend. So, if and when that comes due, I don't know, 2027, 2028, you know, what they were planning on doing is just they would have made so many gains from Bitcoin appreciating that they just would have borrowed against that Bitcoin in order to pay the dividend on the preferreds. But if Bitcoin is going down and you're I don't know what their uh average price of purchase would be, who know you guys probably know that better than I do, but at a certain point you're you would be below that. And so then they could just issue more debt. That would be the third option or the third main option. They just issue more debt, but then [laughter] okay, it kind of puts you in the same spot. Or you could issue more equity. uh more common stock, but then that runs the risk of, you know, diluting even further and you're not going to be able to close that gap even if you raise the money. So, yeah, exactly. So, I'm just as I'm saying this, you know, think that through. So, you would issue more common shares to buy those common shares back. That's not going to work. So, really, you're just left with more preferred more debt or selling the Bitcoin. And I think that because there's above zero% probability that he might have to sell Bitcoin, I think that's one of the reasons why Bitcoin is going down so much because think about it. I mean, Sailor was buying like what 510 billion dollar a week in Bitcoin. So, not only would you not have that bid, but you would have a seller. I I don't know. I mean, I think I have no idea how far down the price of Bitcoin could go, but if it goes down based on this possibility, then what does that do to Micro Strategy and the shares? So, let's get into some more numbers here. And by the way, I will fully admit I am not an expert on the financial engineering. Um, in fact, I'm actually proud of that that I'm not a financial engineer. [laughter] I don't I I think Sailor tries to use that term uh as a positive, but I don't know. For me, that's that's not really a negative. Excuse me, that's not really a positive uh way to describe something. That that for me is a negative. But anyway, let's get over into people who are supposedly experts on this. So, this is according to Yahoo Finance. This was November 6. Strategy won't face Bitcoin liquidation according to expert as Micro Strategy crashes 7%. Again, this was November 5th, excuse me. Um, today is November 13th. So, some reports suggest Sailor Strategy could sell its Bitcoin to cover debt during the next crypto. Okay, so now they're just talking about the the debt payment. Um I think they're assuming that they're not going to have to sell Bitcoin. Let's keep reading here. To avoid selling Bitcoin for that payment. They're not even co talking about the discount yet. Isn't that amazing how quickly things can change? This whole story is about how on earth are they going to get the money to make the debt payments or to pay the preferreds. It's not even talking about how they could raise the money to close the gap because even what six, seven days ago, it was trading at such a premium that the experts weren't even weren't even contemplating it trading below NAV. So to avoid selling its bitcoin holdings repayment uh for repayment micro strategy stock must trade above 183. Uh just as a reminder today we got down to 209 and the market has not yet closed. Uh this level roughly corresponds with a Bitcoin price around 91,000. And just as a reminder, we're at 98. But you know another thing that I'm that's going through my mind here as we go as we go through this is he says that it would have to trade at 183 which would be a bitcoin price of 91 to assume that it's mav or the uh the multiple net asset value I guess that's what they call the mnav would be above one meaning that it would be trading at NAV, but we're not at 183 and we're not at 91 and it's trading at a discount to NAV. So, be very careful [laughter] about the experts. Okay, so this guy said that liquidation is unlikely in the next bare market. Okay, how about in the next week? Bitcoin analyst, the Bitcoin therapist, also shared a similar view. He stated that Bitcoin would need to perform horribly in the next market downturn for Strategy to be forced into selling its Bitcoin holdings. Maybe perform horribly in the next downturn, but maybe we're not going to get to the next market downturn. Uh, you know, may [laughter] maybe the next market downturn is a lot sooner than you think. That's my point here. In the latest development strategy announced a proposed initial public offering of 3.5 million shares of its 10% series A perpetual stream ticker symbol S St that carry face value of a hundred dollars or pounds whatever uh and offer cumulative dividend annual rate of 10%. I I've heard a lot of people out there saying that are really really like hyperbulls for Micro Strategy kind of just coping and rationalizing this downturn by saying, "Oh, well, this is trading at 100 cents on the dollar and therefore nothing to see here. We shouldn't worry about this." I I don't know. I I guess they've got a point, but I would highlight the fact that you're having to pay a dividend of 10% while the 10-year Treasury is trading at four. So, the fact that you've got to pay a 10% dividend to begin with, 6% [laughter] over the 10-year Treasury yield. I don't know. I I don't know that that's actually a a bullish argument. Now, crypto analyst Alli Martinez noted that mass MS micro strategy stock continues to mirror its previous price fractal. No idea what that means. According to him, if the pattern holds, the next potential move could see the stock drop to around $100. I mean, Micro Strategy goes to 100. That's a lot lower than 181. Uh yeah, I I don't I don't know how. I mean, I I guess it could drop to 100 and he wouldn't have to sell Bitcoin because at the end of the day, I mean, he could just say, "Screw it. We're who cares if we trade at a 30% discount to NAV. It is what it is." I mean, maybe that's what he'll do. Or maybe he'll just try to take on more debt. But if he's taking more debt while Bitcoin is going down, I mean, he's gonna have to pay a hefty sum for that debt. or if he's issuing more preferreds, he's likely going to have to pay a higher interest rate than the 10%. Uh I don't know, maybe not. Maybe not because that would uh if he's got to pay more than 10% right now, maybe it wouldn't be trading at 100 cents on the dollar. So maybe he can just issue more and more and more at 10%. But I to buy back the shares. But I don't know that that's a real awesome thing because again at some point he's got to pay the 10%. And it ain't coming out of the the profit of the business because there is no profit. The only place it could come from is an appreciation of the Bitcoin price above and beyond is average price of purchase. So this is the problem with financial engineering. Like like on the way up you look like a genius, but [laughter] on the way down in in hindsight you you look like a well, you guys know what you look like. I I I hate to say anything bad, you know, kick people when they're down or anything, but I think this is a really big story. Uh I do because assuming this continues to trade at a discount, he he's got very few options here, assuming that he wants to close that gap. And again, maybe he doesn't. Maybe he doesn't. But assuming he does, I mean, maybe he just issues more common shares. And well, no, he wouldn't do that again. I'm just making that same mistake. No, he he he can't do that. He's got to just sell more preferred and hope that doesn't impact the price of the common stock or issue more debt and hope you can get it at a decent rate on decent terms and hope that that doesn't I mean if you're having to borrow money to buy your shares back just because your shares are trading at a discount to NAV. I mean, how does the market see that as far as counterparty risk? And if the argument here is that, oh, this is just temporary and Micro Strategy is just going to keep on trucking and doing what they're doing, okay, fine. But even if they're able to continue doing what they're doing and buying more Bitcoin, what they're doing has resulted in the price for the common equity holder going down by 32% in the last month. So, I mean, even if they can keep doing what they're doing, at least in recent history, that hasn't worked. In the last 6 months, it's down 50%. So, if you can keep doing what you were doing that resulted in a in down six 50% over 6 months, I I don't know that that's a bullish argument. So, but I think what's even more interesting about this is if they're put into a position where they have to sell Bitcoin to to bring to get the cash together to close the gap and then what that does to the price of Bitcoin and then what type of feedback loop do you get with the price of Micro Strategy and the price relative to NAV. In fact, even as we're talking here, the price is plummeting. I mean, we started off the live stream and it was around 2, what was it? 211, 212, and now we're down at 209. It's trading under 210, and we still have 45 minutes or so left in trading. So, I have no idea where this ends the day, but I think the the moral of the story here is that financial engineering rarely ends well. It rarely ends well. Will he come out looking like a hero this time? Maybe. Maybe. But maybe not. You're rolling the dice. And unfortunately, I think people buy into the narrative without really thinking it through. So like if you're a bull on micro strategy, you know, more power to you. More power to you. We just, you know, we have a difference of opinion. It doesn't mean that I think you're stupid. I think I I know some very very smart people who are bullish smarter than I am that are bullish on uh Micro Strategy, but they've done a lot of due diligence and they don't have a 100% of their portfolio allocated to Micro Strategy or they're not buying call options on Micro Strategy. Unfortunately, a lot of the people that I saw on Twitter today, they get caught up in the hysteria. They get caught up in the hype, you know, back in May, June, July with all these Bitcoin treasury companies thinking that this is just a revolution. And oh my gosh, no one's ever thought of just borrowing money to buy an underlying asset that goes up in price. And no one's ever thought of that before. This is genius. but not [clears throat] even realizing that [laughter] this is a story as old as time. I mean, he's sailor or whoever is doing this. They're not this is they're not reinventing the wheel here. This is just something that's been tried over and over and over and over again. And usually it fails and it's just people have forgotten because they're not old enough. all the people that remember how this ends, you know, they're not around anymore. They're retired or whatever it is. So, that's my big problem is when Sailor comes out and says that you need to mortgage your house or whatever to buy Bitcoin or I don't know if he said it about micro strategy. Um, but it gets people hyped and it builds on the hysteria and then it leads people to make really bad decisions. And I'm not talking about just going long micro strategy. I'm talking about taking a 100% of your portfolio and going long micro strategy in July. Because I saw a lot of people online that did that. I saw a lot of people online that said that their biggest position in their portfolio was call options on strategy back in June or July because they just got caught up in the hysteria and now they're who knows how much they're down. And to a certain degree you've got to blame the the pumpers, right? You got to blame the pumpers for that. And I understand that Micro Strategy is up a trillion% in the last 5 years. I get it. I get it. But unfortunately, when you pump a stock like that, the 99% of the people that own it, and I'm probably exaggerating, but maybe 70 80% of the people that own it own it now at a loss because they didn't buy when it was 50 bucks. They bought when it was 400. And that's the part that's unfortunate. But anyway, regardless, we've got to pay attention to this because this could dramatically impact the price of Bitcoin. And I've always said that when I'm going to really really add to my long position in Bitcoin is when Sailor sells. And so, I don't know if he starts selling. [laughter] We'll have to see what happens with the price because that could be a huge huge opportunity to get there, get in there and buy Bitcoin. uh for the long run at a really cheap price. Stay tuned. We'll we'll have to see. And if you want uh to know more about the trades that I make, you can check out Rebel Capitalist Pro. Like I said at the beginning, I've had a short position in Micro Strategy for the last two months or so, maybe the last two, two and a half months. So, I was long Bitcoin and I was short Micro Strategy because my idea, it wasn't my idea. It was really chos where where I first uh heard of it. He was talking about the premium to nav shrinking. And a lot of the guys that I hang out with in St. Barts had the exact same trade on but just structured a little bit different way. So, I put the trade on and notified the members of Rebel Capitalist Pro like I always do. And then I actually added to my short position in micro strategy about two weeks ago. So that's turned out to work extremely extremely well. Uh so if you want more kind of trade ideas or if you want to find out more about Rebel Capitalist Pro, we'll have Josh put a link in the chat and a link in the description of this video. Okay guys, enjoy the rest of your afternoon. As always, make sure you're standing up for freedom, liberty, free market, capitalism. See you in the next video.