Sell the Nasdaq and Bitcoin and Buy Gold | Chris Vermeulen and Jimmy Connor
Summary
Market Outlook: The S&P 500 and NASDAQ are in downtrends with elevated FOMO spikes, and a further 6%+ decline is possible; staying sidelined until trend confirmation is advised.
Nvidia (NVDA): Despite blowout earnings, NVDA repeatedly gapped up into resistance and was sold into; guest expects a 7–11% pullback and broader pressure on indices given its weight.
Microsoft (MSFT): MSFT has broken key support with a strong downtrend, implying further downside; its OpenAI exposure does not offset current technical weakness.
AI Sector: The guest sees a frothy AI bubble with increasing institutional distribution, warning of a sharp unwind as sentiment reverses.
Precious Metals: Bullish on Gold and Silver after consolidation, with potential targets near $5,000 for gold and $70–$80 for silver; prefers bullion over Gold Miners due to equity market drag.
US Dollar (DXY): The dollar appears to be bottoming with potential to 110–121, which could later pressure metals after a near-term rally and exacerbate risk-asset selloffs.
Oil: Crude is in a bearish setup with potential to fall to the $45–$30s range, easing inflation optics and improving miners’ margin outlook if gold rises.
Bitcoin and Proxy: Bitcoin may see a short-term bounce but trend remains down with potential toward 50,000; MSTR shows a bearish double-top structure and is viewed unfavorably.
Transcript
Chris, thank you very much for joining us today. So, this week has been very remarkable in in many ways. The first big piece of news that came out this week was Nvidia. They reported on Wednesday evening. Numbers were blowout numbers right across the board, topline, bottom line. The revenues were 57 billion for Q3. Net income $ 32 billion, up 65% year-over-year. And here's a fun fact for you, Chris. If Nvidia was a country as measured by GDP, it would be the third largest country in the world. Can you believe that? >> Holy cow. Yeah. >> Yeah. Yeah. It would be ahead of Germany and behind China and the US. But it one of the interesting things about Nvidia on the back of those numbers, it opened up strong on Thursday and then uh it failed throughout the day and it closed down on the day and so did the S&P and the NASDAQ. So, I want to go through that, but before we do that, >> I want to touch on one other big piece of news that came out this week, and it was the non-farmms. We saw the unemployment numbers for the month of September. >> They came in better than expected. The they added 119,000 jobs versus a loss of 4,000 jobs in the month of August, but the unemployment rate ticked a higher. It came in at 4.4% up from 4.3%. And then we also had some positive news out uh on Friday from one of the Fed governors, John Williams, and he said there's a high probability that we're going to see another cut in December. So all of these things are adding a little bit of um turmoil, if you will, to the markets. So I want to begin with a top down approach and get your views on what's happening in the marketplace. And why don't we just start with the S&P and see how the S&P looks to you, especially on the back of these uh Nvidia numbers and also the unemployment numbers. >> Sure. Yeah. Well, when when we take a look at the S&P 500, uh we had as you a pretty remarkable day. Let's let's pull up the SPY because it really shows the best how most investors experienced uh that trading session. So the stock market has the had this huge red bar and more or less Nvidia had got everybody super excited um the night before and Nvidia shares jumped about five six%. And of course that carried over so many people watch Nvidia most investors are emotional. Most investors and traders chase return that if there's a big move happening without them they get FOMO and they have to pile into the stock market. And so we saw this building overnight and in pre-market. the the stock market opened sharply higher on the spy. Same with on the NASDAQ or pretty much on every single sector we looked at. Everything had a huge gap higher. And the market, this is what the markets love to do. And the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ all kind of moved up, had this huge gap up right into resistance. The overall trend is is down in the stock market. So, we have to look at this as a bounce within a downtrend. Second, it's a news-driven move. as as you know, James, if it's based on news, usually it's it's short-lived. It's just an emotional move. So, when you have that those two together, resistance, price resistance, a huge gap, plus a news-driven move, you can't trust it. You really have to be questionable about what's going to happen. And the markets love to do this. Get everybody pumped, everybody piled in. In fact, I have this indicator that I that I use over here, which is our our panic selling indicator and our FOMO indicator. this red indicator spiked above this blue line. And you can see how the market had this huge gap up. It opened higher. When we have this indicator spike up there, this is called my FOMO indicator. This tells us when everybody's just piling into the stock market. They don't care what price they pay. They have to get in because everybody's making money but them. They're feeling left behind and they want to make sure they're part of this next rally. And so when when this indicator spikes with all these other technicals that match up, look out below because the selling is going to hit. And they we saw huge distribution selling. I mean institutions were unloading massive amounts of share into the general public who literally just got sucked in on news. So you know that was the first punch and you and I, you know, you will probably go into this more, but later in the day we saw the unemployment number come out, which was not very good. And then we got hit with negative news. So it's like yesterday was like a double whammy and emo traders went through a full-on roller coaster of emotions and most of them suffered pretty badly from uh the trade. >> Yeah. And you mentioned the unemployment numbers and we saw the numbers for September. We're not going to see the numbers for October which is hard to believe. We just said ah the hell with it. But we're not going to see the November numbers until December the 16th. So, it's we have no idea what's really happening with the economy in terms of real time. Typically, they release those non-farmms on the first Friday of every month, but there's going to be a delay, I guess, because of the uh shutdown in the government. >> Yeah. Yeah. >> So, when you look at the S&P right now, okay, we're recording this early Friday morning, okay? But we saw a big failure yesterday on Thursday and both the S&P and the NASDAQ closed down on the day. How do you read that and do you see further risk in the coming days? >> Yeah, it's it's a tough read like because you know overall our analysis or my analysis on the market the the trend is down. We do have money naturally flowing out of the markets. The the trend is down the cycle is down. The price action is making a series of lower highs and lower lows. So, you know, I I'm I'm more or less bearish on the market now. It's hard to get a gauge. I wouldn't be surprised if the market has a bounce up or trades sideways for next week uh the coming week uh just because it's it just got really rattled and shaken and then from there we just need to really let the market digest what's going on and and we could see kind of this head and shoulders formation and there'd be a neckline right across here. If we break that neckline to the downside, it's going to probably wreak havoc and we're going to see a very precipitous fall. I think we could see the equities market fall another 6% very easily from here. >> And what is that next line? What is the next line? >> This this is right across here on the S spy ETF. It' be somewhere around the the $650 uh level. If it was to break below that, we could see a huge unwinding event to the downside. So, um the the question is the market's a little oversold. So yesterday we ended up seeing our green indicator on this 30inut chart spike above above three telling us there's panic selling people people went from early in the morning they had to own shares to the end of the day they were dumping them and they were scared out of their mind taking losses and moving out. And so when we have panic selling it also means the market's a little oversold and usually we're going to have some type of pause or bounce before it wants to go lower. Now the trend is down. So it's more likely the price is going to continue to work its way down, but it might not happen today like Friday or Monday. It might take its time and put a little bit of a pause or bounce before selling off. So there's a lot of mixed signals here. You I think being on the sidelines is the safe play and that's kind of what we're doing. We're waiting to see where the next uh the next key trend is going to start and we just have to let the markets work itself out. There's times to be involved in the market. There's also time to just stand aside and let everybody ride the roller coaster. One of my subscribers, a couple of them yesterday were saying how nice it was to like how fun yesterday was to watch because we we moved aside a while ago and we're letting this market unwind. And one of the members this morning said he it reminds him of us like standing on the ground at like an amusement park listening to those giant roller coasters go by with everybody screaming. And that's how we saw yesterday as we like watched everybody scream in fear of missing out at the open. And then by the end of the day, they were screaming with horror of how much money they've given back or lost. And uh and when the market's in this condition, the best thing to do is to just stand aside and watch the blood bath and watch the chaos and have a level head. And Chris, you mentioned this FOMO indicator. I love that name. But um where it is right now, is this a level where you see it might bottom or can that FOMO indicator go lower? Uh well, the FOMO FOMO indicator only really matters when we're in a downtrend, which we're in a downtrend. And and then when it when it spikes above three, it's only it's usually for a very short period of time. It's usually only for an hour or two. Um it's a very short wave how sensitive and quickly the market's emotions switch gears. Uh, so right now it's in if it's below the blue line, I could we don't really care what it does. It doesn't mean anything anymore. All I know is when we're in a downtrend, whenever there's FOMO, you got to expect we're going to see a strong leg to the downside. And and so the panic selling indicator, you kind of need to ignore in a downtrend because the market is naturally always fearful and we're going to keep hitting panic waves of panic selling. So you don't want to pick a bottom in a downtrend. you want to wait for a bounce like the FOMO to show in in price to move up and then you can buy like an inverse ETF or short the stock. So, you know, during an uptrend, we don't pay attention to the FOMO anymore. We only look at panic selling because we want to buy dips or we want to know when there's o oversold um pullback within an uptrend. So, you need to know which one to look at and which one to pay attention to. But, they're only valuable during certain windows, as you can see here, only for like an hour and a half in the morning. three bars on the 30-inut chart and then that opportunity disappears. >> All right, so why don't we jump right in and look at Nvidia? Okay, Nvidia represents 14% of the NASDAQ 100, so you might as well just say it's a proxy for the NASDAQ 100. >> Yeah, I mean this chart it's it doesn't look the greatest. It's been trying to figure out what to do. It had a nice pop, but it's faded down. Uh it's kind of the really all the markets are in in the same boat across the board and and asset classes. They're all trying to figure out what to do. Nvidia is kind of trading in this big support zone. Uh it had a recent run up and it got completely rejected. Had another big gap up, got rejected. Had a big gap up on Thursday, got rejected. There's definitely selling going on. I think the people are starting to to catch on or big funds and fund managers are starting to realize, hey, this is getting frothy. uh the AI bubble might be running out of steam and and and so we're seeing more and more big selling going on in this space. Uh to me it looks like eventually it's going to break down and if I was talking with in with the charts yesterday showing that I think we've got about a um a 7 to 11% pullback in Nvidia that could happen over the next week or so. And that was from that was from yesterday. So, we're looking down potentially somewhere around 160 uh potentially in Nvidia if this this breakdown continues. That's what the charts are pointing to. So, that's going to keep some downward pressure on on the overall stock indices. >> Yeah. So, where Nvidia goes, so goes the market. And I just did a search on that because as I mentioned, it represents 14% of the NASDAQ 100. So, I just did a quick search on chat. When was the last time one single stock had that large of a waiting >> and it couldn't really give me an answer? It just said rarely ever. >> But the S&P in the S, it represents about 8% of the S&P and it uh said no single stock has had that large of a waiting in decades. >> Yeah. >> So, it's also interesting to see there's been a lot of negative news on uh Nvidia just in terms of shareholders selling. I'm sure you read about Michael Barry. uh he's got a large short position in terms of puts over a billion dollars. Uh Peter Teal also sold his entire stake in Nvidia and so did SoftBank sold their entire stake. So a lot of people are selling out of Nvidia and maybe that's why we're seeing this selloff that we've seen here in the last few weeks even despite the uh strong numbers. Yeah, it's it those big those big players, those big names when they do these big calls, I mean, they're so so into it like that they see this forming over a very long period of time and sometimes they're a little early to it. Uh but then eventually it pays off because they they just know how wrong some of these moves in in assets are and they get a little early. But uh the fact that there's a there's several of them now out here. I mean, they're obviously trying to into some regard pump their portfolio. They're trying to create everyone to be fearful and to sell it because they're going to profit huge. But um it's Yeah, I I'm be pretty bearish on Nvidia. I feel like when it starts to collapse, it's going to do what every other, you know, herd mentality stock does where everybody piles in because it's the always in the news and everybody seems to own it. And uh the thing is they all pile in and drive the prices to ludicrous valuations, but then when it turns around, they also jump ship so fast and they they do it at such a lightning speed that the you know it takes staircase up and the elevator down and that's it. Like stocks in in the indices fall four to seven times faster than they go up. So something that goes up takes seven years to grow could be wiped out in one year. And that's why bare markets are so dangerous uh and and reset. So, I'm I I'm I'm excited for a financial reset in the equities market. Like, I obviously don't want the economy to be weak. It's going to be difficult on people, but we do need a reset. We need to let air out of this bag. It's going to create tons of opportunity. Uh unfortunately, those who don't know how to identify or handle are going to get hurt, which there's that's the majority of people, unfortunately. But we do. It'd be nice to get a reset and and reset the markets and asset classes for another big hopefully 5 10 15 year cycle, right? Um that's kind of where we're at. Things are pretty frothy across the board still. The next stock I want to look at, Chris, is Microsoft and it's up 18 to 20% on the year. It owns 27% of Open AI, which owns Chat GBT. So, it's a good proxy for what's happening in that space. Uh what's your take? Look, that thing looks like it's really under pressure here. >> Yeah, it's a really ugly chart. It has uh it had a very high volatility kind of double bottom in play and then it's had a extremely high volatility double top. Similar type of price action, really good news, gets absolutely sold into with heavy heavy volume. It works its way back up, pops up with good news again, has been getting just sold off. It has broken below this critical support level. So, to me, it has topped, it's broken down, it is in a very strong downtrend, and it still looks like it has quite a bit of ways uh to to go at this point. I mean, just using um Fibonacci um extensions, we can get an idea of where this move should run out of steam. And based on where it is as you and I are speaking, I think we could see another, you know, 4% or so to the downside to 453 somewhere in that uh that vicinity maybe before it even finds a bottom and puts in a bounce. So again, Nvidia is looking like it's breaking down. Microsoft has broken down. Uh the only one that's really bucking the trend is Google. And it seems to be like Buffett's team is talking about loading up and buying lots of Google and people are saying that this is so not Berkshire Hathaway. The new management is taking a risk and doing a play that you know Warren would have never really done and so it's creating a lot of questions. That's for sure. >> Well, they said the same thing about Apple and that turned out to be a hell of an investment. >> So, okay. So, you're looking for weakness uh in both the S&P and the NASDAQ. So, we got to find, you know, pockets of strength or where we can allocate dollars toward um strength and and take a defensive approach. Gold's up 50% on the year. It's had a hell of a pull um had a hell of a year this year, but uh why don't we take a look at gold and where you think it's going? >> Yeah, so gold is is taking a breather. I mean, it's doing a beautiful stairst step price action where, you know, it it rallies up, it pauses, it has these huge massive bull flags, and at this point, it really is just in another consolidation. Uh we did we did a trade on gold that was just a quick 15% pretty much. We got in, it ripped straight up, hit our target, pulled back, and then we had this uh this extreme FOMO wave in the market where whoever wasn't in precious metals or gold during this like one and a half week window, they had to get in. And I mean, the the sentiment was insane. I've never seen so many people panicking to get in and saying they bought in and all of this stuff. And then of course, usually when the when everybody's running the same direction, this is like our FOMO indicator. Usually it's going to have a quick pullback and try and shake everybody out and scare them. And it's done that. Now there's a lot of people out there saying, "Has silver put in a top? Has gold put in a top or miners topping?" And and it's funny because we ended up having a small gold trade to get in and people didn't want to get back into gold. It actually scared them that much. uh they go from needing it, you know, the previous week they had to get in and they didn't care. They're paying all-time highs to now I don't know if I want it anymore. And it's the same that we saw when you and I were looking at the Nvidia chart in the morning. They had to have it by the end of the day. They didn't want anything to do with it. And so when we hit these levels, that means the market has to just consolidate, has to trade sideways. It has to work out the bugs, work out the volatility. Anybody who's scared and is getting bored and giving up on gold is going to keep selling. And there's going to be new investors saying, "No, I'll pick it up here. This it's this is a correction. This is a pause. I want to buy it before the next leg higher." So, I'm still bullish on gold. I think we're going to see potentially the equities markets sell off. Money is going to come out of stocks and go into gold and silver and go higher. And I think you and I have shared this this chart before in the past. So on the on the left hand side here, we've got the S&P 500 that hit all-time highs. And then we had gold, the yellow line up here, starting to have a bit of a pause. And then we started to see the stock market sell off. Well, we've got very similar price action right now. Gold on the right hand side is today. We've got gold having this pause on the weekly chart. And now we're starting to see the stock market sell off. And if we look at what happened before, the stock market eventually it has a little bit of a bounce and struggles, but then it starts to break down and starts to sell off and it drops about 19%. While the price of gold shot up like 30%. So I think we're very close to the switch being flipped where people move out of stocks and they pile into precious metals for one big last push higher. And I think there's a big move in gold. I think uh you know $5,100 or $5,200 in gold and silver could be up in the 80s an ounce. Um I think after that I think that they're going to have very sharp corrections, but that's what the charts and the sentiment and the cycles, everything we're looking at are pointing to. So I like I like gold and silver here. They still might take another couple weeks to digest before maybe starting to move higher. I think a lot of it is going to um come back down to what the stock market does. If we look back here, we had kind of three, four weeks that the stock market had a bounce up. These are the weekly charts. And so gold and gold traded sideways during that phase. Everything was trying to figure out what it's going to do. And then once the stock market starts to sell off, that's when gold starts to shoot higher. So I think you got to be patient with gold and let it just mature a little bit more. Let the stock market potentially stall out a little bit more and then I think we're going to see some pretty big moves in the precious metal space. I also continue to be very bullish on gold. My only concern or one caveat I have is Jamie Diamond of JP Morgan. He also went bullish on gold uh earlier this year just here in the last quarter. But he's said gold could easily go to 5,000 or $10,000 an ounce. And he went on to say that it's the first time in his career where investing in gold actually made rational sense. Uh his track record on gold and also Bitcoin uh has not been a good one. He's been totally wrong on both. And now that gold's up 50% on the year, he's starting to wake up to the fact. But you mentioned silver. Why don't we take a look at that? It's up 70% on the year. It's had a hell of a move. Where do you see it going? >> Yeah, si silver still has a really strong price chart. We could we could look at the most recent kind of pause and pullback and, you know, it is it is pointing to a fairly significant move. The next kind of uh measured move is up to around, you know, 63 uh dollars an ounce from where that is. It it's consolidating like gold. It's just more volatile. It's a smaller market, moves faster, but there's potential for, you know, a fairly explosive 27%. I do think it could go even higher than that depending on how you want to draw some of these these levels. Like this is the most conservative approach. The most aggressive one based on the charts would be right around here, which is kind of around 71. And of course, if we do get into this feeding frenzy and it starts to get up there, this is where we go into these blowoff top phases where it hits 71 and it can just spike and blow right on through it up into the 80s because it'll be a big wave of FOMO of everyone piling in right near the peak and it just, you know, price goes straight up. So, um, I like I like silver. I like gold. I I I'm not as big of a fan of minors. I'd rather just stick with the the physical bullion because a perfect example is we saw uh on Thursday we saw the stock market pull back like a percent and a and a third percent and a half. But if you go and you look at like silver miners for example uh they pulled back like five and a half%. And so the here this is this is the problem and we saw this in 2007 as the stock market started to top and sell off is when the stock market tide is going down it pulls most stocks with it. Even if they're in a strong sector like precious metals, you'd make the same amount or more money in just trading gold than you are to try to take the leverage play in a stock because if the stock market falls 20% it's naturally going to pull the gold miners down and keep kind of the muted. Whereas gold is a physical commodity. It's outside of the stock market. And we saw, you know, huge turmoil on Thursday with Nvidia and the unemployment number. And pretty much all the commodities were like pretty pretty still. Gold barely moved. It was slightly positive. Oil barely moved because everybody's attention was on the stock market. They're licking their wounds. They're trying to figure out what to do. So, it just goes to show that, you know, the a commodity is outside of the stock market. And if the stock market is potentially putting in a top here, why not just trade gold or silver because it can keep going up if the stock market crashes? Whereas miners are going to have that real headwind and that struggle every now and then it's going to get hit with a wave of selling. One more chart I want to look at before we move on and that's platinum. It's also had a very good year. Uh it's up over 60% on the year and it's a metal that we don't talk too much about. >> Yeah, I mean it it's holding up fairly well. I mean, it has a series of rally pause, rally pause. It's It's hard to get a gauge. Like, I I think we're going to see all precious metals move higher. You You could argue this might be a little bit of a bare flag. We got this move down and there's potential it might want to unwind and sell off. But if the the precious metal space and gold find a bid here, and then I think we're going to see this take off. We saw platinum and and platium and and silver all rally over 50% in this similar type of price action scenario uh in the last just before the last financial crisis. So u it's still holding up. I think you I think you should be bullish on platinum, platium, silver, gold. Um but it's definitely testing a a support level. It's not quite getting the attention like gold is kind of the ultimate gauge of fear and bra barometer for that. So, it holds up and has the cleanest chart patterns. As soon as you deviate away from gold, you go to silver, platinum, and platium. They're a little more random. They can give you fake signals and fake breakdowns and breakouts to the upside. And they're not quite the same uh they don't have quite the same cleanness to the chart patterns, but they generally will move together. And so, if gold moves up, I would expect platinum to rally as well. Okay, Chris, let's move on to another uh favorite topic of yours, and that's Bitcoin. >> Some people refer to it as digital gold, but uh it topped out earlier this year at $125,000. Now we're trading somewhere between 80 to $85,000. What's your take on this chart? Where do you see it going? >> Yeah, I I think it's it's going to try and find support right down where it is. I mean, there's no doubt it's it's getting pretty oversold. It's had a very strong move to the downside. I would say there's a big support range somewhere right right down to where it has dipped to 80,000 is also a whole number meaning people a lot of people will say well if it hits 80,000 which is you know a level that people just want to say I'll buy some if it gets there. So it is it's pulled down into a high volume support zone and now I think it might have some type of bounce to the upside. I wouldn't touch it at all. I don't like this chart. It's in a downtrend. I don't play bounces within a downtrend. If anything, if it bounces and then starts to roll over, you'd actually want to play to the downside because after this drop, I it's probably going to head on down to, you know, uh around 50,000 after this one. So, it doesn't look very good from a short-term standpoint. Expect it to bounce or trade sideways for a week or three or a couple or maybe even a month or so. But overall, it's a bounce and it's in a downtrend, so it might not have that big of a bounce. And then once it does fail, I think we're looking at another precipitous fall. So it'll it'll drop pretty pretty sharply. And of course, if the NASDAQ sells off, then this is probably going to move down with it. They're fairly highly linked in terms of how they move. So we got to take a look at Micro Strategy, MSTR, which is now called Strategy. They changed the name. I'm not sure why, but but it's a proxy for Bitcoin. They had owned 650,000 Bitcoin at an average cost of $75,000. It's really been under pressure in the last few months. What's your take? >> Yeah, I mean, you and I have touched on this one a few times. I mean, I don't really know the stock. I'm not a I'm not a fan of any company that just buys Bitcoin as their business model and they're just playing and and and pumping it and all that stuff. I I think that's what's going on. I mean, I don't know. I don't follow it. uh the chart looks terrible. It's based on a model that I don't believe in. Um and you know, why don't people just trade trade Bitcoin if they want access to it? Why do they have to go through another stock or company that's doing whatever knows? And um and it just adds more more more guesswork. I'd rather just follow the straight up. So obviously this is getting oversold just like Bitcoin. It's getting down into down into a deep support zone of this previous level. So, I would not be surprised if we see Bitcoin, if we see micro or strategy um bounce from this level, but again, it's I wouldn't touch this thing at all. If you look at the the long-term picture, this this to me just looks like a massive double top. And I wonder what the the monthly chart probably shows a pretty ugly chart pattern. Um obviously, what goes straight up comes straight back down. It's never s usually never sustainable. It has put in a massive double top. It has broken down. it's into support. So, you know, best case scenario, I feel like it could bounce back up to 240 and then it's probably back down to 80 or 40. I mean, I think it'll be pretty worthless. Um, that's just based on the chart pattern. And again, I have a bias, I guess, because I'm not a fan of this strategy or the stock, but the charts do not look good at all. And it's also amazing. So, Micro U Micro Strategy was the first company to add Bitcoin to its balance sheet. Uh there's been various reports anywhere from 160 to 200 companies have taken Bitcoin onto their balance sheet. So it's a strategy many people have employed and I'll tell you if this thing really comes undone, it's going to be you don't know what the long-term implications are for the market overall. >> I I I invested in a company a while ago and uh they were ridiculous. the CEO was nuts and put all their money into Bitcoin to quickly try to double their money even against nobody seemed like wanted it to happen and it blew up and they lost and they went bankrupt. It's unbelievable how Bitcoin gets into people's minds and they just have to go for the so-called quick money. We'll quickly double or make 50% and then we got tons of capital and we can do all the stuff we want. They weren't even in the crypto space and they did it and they blew up. So, I I I I'm not a fan of Bitcoin because there's so much potential that it makes people do stupid things and risk other people's money and and all that. So, I I just I'm very risk focused and so when people don't have risk, I I just I struggle to give them the respect and they and and like I'm just like life is all about me measuring risk. It's all about having a strategy and and and managing risk. We only live once and you got to protect your life, your health, your financial space. But for some reason, as soon as you put high targets on stuff and people are saying million-dollar Bitcoin, people throw all logic out the window and they're like, "Well, if this thing only goes half or a quarter of that, I'm going to make a fortune still." But, you know, the odds aren't very good that it's going to happen. And so, uh, yeah. Anyways, that that's I guess my chip on the shoulder toward on the Bitcoin side of things is only because I deal with thousands of subscribers and I hear them always share like this guy's saying this is going to this price and it's why I try not to put these crazy targets like on on gold and silver. Like I'm putting some pretty high targets on them now because they actually look like they're going to happen. But so many people like years ago, a decade ago were saying 5,000 and they were saying $25,000 gold. And I watch people who listen to these like they're subscribers of mine. They're like, "I did this and I bought this and and it blows up huge in their face." So, um, that's my rant anyway. So, Chris, we can't talk about gold or Bitcoin without talking about the US dollar and it's been under pressure this year. It was down 10%. It's now down around 8%. But, uh, what's your view on the DXY and where do you see it going? And this is, you know, depending on where the US dollar goes, that's also going to dictate the price of gold. And this is one of the reasons why so many central banks and foreign governments have been buying gold is because they're trying to hedge their US dollar uh investments. Yeah. Yeah. So, it looks like uh pretty pretty straightforward price action. You have a series of higher lows that eventually stall out and then they start to make lower lows. And the same with higher highs and higher lows, it's a rounding formation. You could say there was a head and and shoulders style uh pattern that broke down. Well, now we're in this, you know, rounding formation to the upside and it's starting to clear some pretty significant bottoming resistance levels and it's pointing to higher pricing. I mean, it it's, you know, based on the charts, the long-term monthly charts, it's saying we could see um the dollar index back up to like 110, 116, 121. I mean, it can go way way way up there and it no one's expecting it, it seems, because if I say anything bullish on the dollar, I kind of usually get my my face ripped off. Uh, everybody's everybody's bearish on it. And usually when everybody's bearish and they say it's worthless and don't touch it and there's no way it's coming back, there's too much debt, they get into the whole fundamental side. But price action generally doesn't move based on fundamentals. It moves on on emotions and what's going on. And uh this is pointing to way higher pricing. And so a lot of people are going to be caught offside. And we could see the dollar and gold maybe move up a little bit together over the next little bit. But once the dollar does get traction and just starts to skyrocket, not only will the panic selling pull precious metals down because it creates margin calls and and when people are scared, they liquidate everything because they just don't know what they're doing. They don't know what to do. Uh but the rising dollar is going to kill also the the price of of gold and silver. So I think our time is limited in the precious metal space. I think we could see a big move up in metals over the next one to three months after that. Look out below because the only thing going up is going to be like the dollar and probably inverse ETFs. All right, I want to look at one more commodity and that's oil. Uh we just saw some news in the last few days about the possibility of a US-led peace plan between Russia and Ukraine. And because of this, oil's been under pressure, but it's been under pressure for a good part of the year. It's one of the few commodities down the year. It's down about 20%. >> Where do you see oil going here? >> Yeah, I think I think oil is going to get pretty ugly. I think we're going to see it break below 56. I think we're going to head down to about 45 46, potentially even down into the 30s. I mean, the monthly chart, I was going over this with some subscribers this morning, and when you look at the long-term chart of of oil here, let me just uh there's there's a couple key support zones. Right through here is a is a pretty critical support zone. Either price was stuck under it or above it. We have some big pierces through it, but it's a pretty critical pivot point. The next uh critical pivot point is going to be somewhere like I think it's going to be somewhere right down into this range right through here. I think there's a lot of significant positives >> which is what's that $35? >> Yeah.$4 a barrel. >> 31 to about $40 somewhere in that window. And people are like no way it's going to go down there. I'm like yes way anything can happen. I mean if it can go negative then it can also go down to 30 no problem. And it as you can see it has done this many many times really in the last 20 years anyway. This isn't out of the norm. This is just the lower end of the range. uh it's just an elastic band, right? It gets stretched one way, gets let go, comes back the other. So I I I think we're going to see some weakness. And I think if the economy slowly starts to weaken, I think that's one of the reasons oil is also going down is I think a lot of people feel like the economy and things are coming to a grinding halt. Uh oil is not going to be in big demand. There's going to be a ton of supply, not huge demand. And then of course, you know, the sellers will continue to sell oil off and and drive it lower. and and the price of oil right now and the price of gas is that's one of the things that's really saving us uh from an inflation point of view. The government claims inflation's around 3%. Uh I mean if oil were to rip to 80 or 100 bucks a barrel uh all bets are off. And we've seen this before. It gets there relatively quickly. Back in Q1 of 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine, it ripped up to 125 bucks. But as you mentioned in uh what was it? Q1 to Q2 of 2000 2020 it went negative where in the spot market it went down to 25 bucks a barrel. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. So anything can happen. It's in a downward trend. It's more likely to continue to go lower. It's uh getting squeezed onto this support level that if it breaks the next level, next level could be really down, you know, $40 or or less, which is it's going to save the whole inflation side of things. If if oil goes down there, it's going to make inflation not look so bad at all. But um really gas isn't that big that big part of the average person's lifestyle. It's everything else that's now triple in value that we need every day that actually gets us. But >> you're right. But from where I stand, it's more of a psychological uh point because you pass gas stations all the time and you see what the price of gas is. you know, $2 a gallon, $250 a gallon, $3 a gallon, like you see all the time. So, you really know what's happening there, right? Whereas many other >> It's amazing how something that really has a fairly low impact on most people's lives, like the price of gasoline, how I remember back in the day, everybody would watch it every day, like the penny, like what is it trading at to the penny? I'm like, people are like, I can save three pennies if I go to this gas station. I'm like, you know, that's like, you know, a couple bucks or a buck. like it this is not life-changing you know stuff but people get so hyper sensitive and that's that's why the media is so powerful right they keep talking about you know um whatever it is they want to talk about Nvidia and AI or Bitcoin and they just keep putting it on the camera and talking about it and so it's top of mind and everybody's hyper sensitive and any tiny little news feels like something big is happening and that makes people's emotions just percolate and come to life and people make these irrational decisions of to invest pure pure on emotions and news that makes something that's really doesn't mean anything um seem like it's meaningful. So that's but you're right oil is definitely top of mind. Everybody passes a gas station and I mean I I still look at what the the gas of price is. is I mean I don't pick a gas station really based on price but I always look just because I kind of always grew up watching the price of gas and I'm always amazed at the oil market like given it's one of the largest markets in the world how volatile it is and and because of its volatility it has a huge impact on many industries you look at the airline industry right it's their number one cost the mining industry it's their second largest cost right employers >> this is great for energy this is great for if gold prices skyrocket and oil and oil stays down below 50 or in the 40s for a while, man, it's going to be great for miners. >> Margins are huge. >> Yeah. >> So, why don't we uh in the last few minutes here, why don't we just summarize everything you said and why don't we pull up the S&P chart and just start right there. Uh so, you see some weakness in the S&P and the NASDAQ here in the coming days and weeks. Maybe give uh what's your downside on the S&P? Where do you see it going? And are you able to put up the 200 day so we can just see that where we see a potential? Sure. Yeah. So if I put up the 200 day, um I like I like the 150day. I I find it's way more accurate in terms of uh finding gauges, but everyone does seem to want to follow the uh the 200 day. It's kind of the big um the big number. But if we were to look at the 200 day, you know, we've got potential for it to drive drop down to 6313 or 15 there, which is roughly about a a 3% 4% drop from where it is. Uh we we could, you know, take a look at just this topping kind of volatility right through here on the stock market, which looks like it's kind of put in this top. We could uh we just kind of drag this right across. You can see we're at this this major level. Now, if we were to just take the volatility, the height of that top, which it could become a head and shoulders pattern, this is the same way you'd measure it to the downside, actually shows, you know, the S&P 500 has could could actually have a much bigger drop somewhere around this 56% is what I mentioned before. So, it'll be it'd be a big unwinding event and catch a lot of people offguard. And so, it it just comes down to what type of correction are we going to go into? Are we going to go into something huge that maybe some news is going to come out and maybe in in January we get unemployment numbers that are staggering and and it creates a huge wave of selling. Are we just going to get a very sharp pullback where it sells off and then rebounds like right back up again or is it going to be like a multi-wave multimonth pullback and no one knows what the markets are going to do. That's why we just have to follow price and have a strategy. So whichever whatever it does, we we know what to do. So I I think there's a quite a bit of downside potential in the equities market. And then the big question, if it does pull back here, what does it do after? And is it going to is that a bounce before we go into something bigger? Like if the stock market here starts to sell off, James, and precious metals skyrocket, money just comes out of stocks and goes in, I will think we are in the last like month or six weeks of of precious metals having their heyday. And also the stock market I will think has have put in a major top and we'll be starting a new a major bare market. So a lot I think is going to unfold in the next couple weeks as we see things move and how how they move. But right now, it's like you definitely don't want to be holding stocks. I think they're in a downtrend and there's quite a bit of downside and it's across the board. Gold's sideways, silver sideways, oils sideways trying to figure out if it's going to break below 56. The stock market is at support. There there is no clear direction, right? And sometimes you just have to step aside and be like, "Okay, give me direction. Go break support or start a new rally that we can get on board with. Just give us something." But right now, it's at that turning point where it's like, I don't know. I don't know what to do other than sit on my hands and just watch everybody else struggle uh trying to figure it out when you can just step aside. >> Okay. So, you see downside in both the S&P and the NASDAQ in the coming days. Uh and then we might test that support level around the 200 day. You're bullish on gold and silver. Gold, you said, has the potential to go to $5,000 in the next few months. Silver maybe up to 70 or 80 bucks in the next few months, correct? Yep. >> And Bitcoin, you think we might get a bounce here in the next few days? It's at a key level, but overall, you're negative on Bitcoin. >> Yeah. >> Okay. Well, this has been a great session and I want to thank you very much for spending time with us today, Chris, especially after such a volatile week with so much news. If somebody would like to follow you online or check out your services, where can they go? >> Yeah, the the two two spots. Uh YouTube, the technical traders. You can check up my my my videos I share there each week or you go to my websitethetechnicaltraders.com and I manage my portfolio. I share exactly my my daily analysis, my thoughts, my thinking. I give you my exact ETF trades. Really, I copy the markets and you copy my portfolio. We just all trade the same trades at the same time. I try to keep everybody's emotions in check by letting you know you might feel like this today. Hey, you might feel FOMO, but you know, this is these are waves of emotion and they're normal. Let's watch everybody else have these waves of emotion while we like, you know, um kind of understand what's going on and know it's part of the game. So, I just help control people's emotions and um they can navigate their portfolios through these markets safely. >> Well, that's great, Chris. And I will include links to both your website and also your newsletter services in my show notes below. Once again, thank you and enjoy your weekend. >> All right, take care. You too. Bye bye. [Music]
Sell the Nasdaq and Bitcoin and Buy Gold | Chris Vermeulen and Jimmy Connor
Summary
Transcript
Chris, thank you very much for joining us today. So, this week has been very remarkable in in many ways. The first big piece of news that came out this week was Nvidia. They reported on Wednesday evening. Numbers were blowout numbers right across the board, topline, bottom line. The revenues were 57 billion for Q3. Net income $ 32 billion, up 65% year-over-year. And here's a fun fact for you, Chris. If Nvidia was a country as measured by GDP, it would be the third largest country in the world. Can you believe that? >> Holy cow. Yeah. >> Yeah. Yeah. It would be ahead of Germany and behind China and the US. But it one of the interesting things about Nvidia on the back of those numbers, it opened up strong on Thursday and then uh it failed throughout the day and it closed down on the day and so did the S&P and the NASDAQ. So, I want to go through that, but before we do that, >> I want to touch on one other big piece of news that came out this week, and it was the non-farmms. We saw the unemployment numbers for the month of September. >> They came in better than expected. The they added 119,000 jobs versus a loss of 4,000 jobs in the month of August, but the unemployment rate ticked a higher. It came in at 4.4% up from 4.3%. And then we also had some positive news out uh on Friday from one of the Fed governors, John Williams, and he said there's a high probability that we're going to see another cut in December. So all of these things are adding a little bit of um turmoil, if you will, to the markets. So I want to begin with a top down approach and get your views on what's happening in the marketplace. And why don't we just start with the S&P and see how the S&P looks to you, especially on the back of these uh Nvidia numbers and also the unemployment numbers. >> Sure. Yeah. Well, when when we take a look at the S&P 500, uh we had as you a pretty remarkable day. Let's let's pull up the SPY because it really shows the best how most investors experienced uh that trading session. So the stock market has the had this huge red bar and more or less Nvidia had got everybody super excited um the night before and Nvidia shares jumped about five six%. And of course that carried over so many people watch Nvidia most investors are emotional. Most investors and traders chase return that if there's a big move happening without them they get FOMO and they have to pile into the stock market. And so we saw this building overnight and in pre-market. the the stock market opened sharply higher on the spy. Same with on the NASDAQ or pretty much on every single sector we looked at. Everything had a huge gap higher. And the market, this is what the markets love to do. And the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ all kind of moved up, had this huge gap up right into resistance. The overall trend is is down in the stock market. So, we have to look at this as a bounce within a downtrend. Second, it's a news-driven move. as as you know, James, if it's based on news, usually it's it's short-lived. It's just an emotional move. So, when you have that those two together, resistance, price resistance, a huge gap, plus a news-driven move, you can't trust it. You really have to be questionable about what's going to happen. And the markets love to do this. Get everybody pumped, everybody piled in. In fact, I have this indicator that I that I use over here, which is our our panic selling indicator and our FOMO indicator. this red indicator spiked above this blue line. And you can see how the market had this huge gap up. It opened higher. When we have this indicator spike up there, this is called my FOMO indicator. This tells us when everybody's just piling into the stock market. They don't care what price they pay. They have to get in because everybody's making money but them. They're feeling left behind and they want to make sure they're part of this next rally. And so when when this indicator spikes with all these other technicals that match up, look out below because the selling is going to hit. And they we saw huge distribution selling. I mean institutions were unloading massive amounts of share into the general public who literally just got sucked in on news. So you know that was the first punch and you and I, you know, you will probably go into this more, but later in the day we saw the unemployment number come out, which was not very good. And then we got hit with negative news. So it's like yesterday was like a double whammy and emo traders went through a full-on roller coaster of emotions and most of them suffered pretty badly from uh the trade. >> Yeah. And you mentioned the unemployment numbers and we saw the numbers for September. We're not going to see the numbers for October which is hard to believe. We just said ah the hell with it. But we're not going to see the November numbers until December the 16th. So, it's we have no idea what's really happening with the economy in terms of real time. Typically, they release those non-farmms on the first Friday of every month, but there's going to be a delay, I guess, because of the uh shutdown in the government. >> Yeah. Yeah. >> So, when you look at the S&P right now, okay, we're recording this early Friday morning, okay? But we saw a big failure yesterday on Thursday and both the S&P and the NASDAQ closed down on the day. How do you read that and do you see further risk in the coming days? >> Yeah, it's it's a tough read like because you know overall our analysis or my analysis on the market the the trend is down. We do have money naturally flowing out of the markets. The the trend is down the cycle is down. The price action is making a series of lower highs and lower lows. So, you know, I I'm I'm more or less bearish on the market now. It's hard to get a gauge. I wouldn't be surprised if the market has a bounce up or trades sideways for next week uh the coming week uh just because it's it just got really rattled and shaken and then from there we just need to really let the market digest what's going on and and we could see kind of this head and shoulders formation and there'd be a neckline right across here. If we break that neckline to the downside, it's going to probably wreak havoc and we're going to see a very precipitous fall. I think we could see the equities market fall another 6% very easily from here. >> And what is that next line? What is the next line? >> This this is right across here on the S spy ETF. It' be somewhere around the the $650 uh level. If it was to break below that, we could see a huge unwinding event to the downside. So, um the the question is the market's a little oversold. So yesterday we ended up seeing our green indicator on this 30inut chart spike above above three telling us there's panic selling people people went from early in the morning they had to own shares to the end of the day they were dumping them and they were scared out of their mind taking losses and moving out. And so when we have panic selling it also means the market's a little oversold and usually we're going to have some type of pause or bounce before it wants to go lower. Now the trend is down. So it's more likely the price is going to continue to work its way down, but it might not happen today like Friday or Monday. It might take its time and put a little bit of a pause or bounce before selling off. So there's a lot of mixed signals here. You I think being on the sidelines is the safe play and that's kind of what we're doing. We're waiting to see where the next uh the next key trend is going to start and we just have to let the markets work itself out. There's times to be involved in the market. There's also time to just stand aside and let everybody ride the roller coaster. One of my subscribers, a couple of them yesterday were saying how nice it was to like how fun yesterday was to watch because we we moved aside a while ago and we're letting this market unwind. And one of the members this morning said he it reminds him of us like standing on the ground at like an amusement park listening to those giant roller coasters go by with everybody screaming. And that's how we saw yesterday as we like watched everybody scream in fear of missing out at the open. And then by the end of the day, they were screaming with horror of how much money they've given back or lost. And uh and when the market's in this condition, the best thing to do is to just stand aside and watch the blood bath and watch the chaos and have a level head. And Chris, you mentioned this FOMO indicator. I love that name. But um where it is right now, is this a level where you see it might bottom or can that FOMO indicator go lower? Uh well, the FOMO FOMO indicator only really matters when we're in a downtrend, which we're in a downtrend. And and then when it when it spikes above three, it's only it's usually for a very short period of time. It's usually only for an hour or two. Um it's a very short wave how sensitive and quickly the market's emotions switch gears. Uh, so right now it's in if it's below the blue line, I could we don't really care what it does. It doesn't mean anything anymore. All I know is when we're in a downtrend, whenever there's FOMO, you got to expect we're going to see a strong leg to the downside. And and so the panic selling indicator, you kind of need to ignore in a downtrend because the market is naturally always fearful and we're going to keep hitting panic waves of panic selling. So you don't want to pick a bottom in a downtrend. you want to wait for a bounce like the FOMO to show in in price to move up and then you can buy like an inverse ETF or short the stock. So, you know, during an uptrend, we don't pay attention to the FOMO anymore. We only look at panic selling because we want to buy dips or we want to know when there's o oversold um pullback within an uptrend. So, you need to know which one to look at and which one to pay attention to. But, they're only valuable during certain windows, as you can see here, only for like an hour and a half in the morning. three bars on the 30-inut chart and then that opportunity disappears. >> All right, so why don't we jump right in and look at Nvidia? Okay, Nvidia represents 14% of the NASDAQ 100, so you might as well just say it's a proxy for the NASDAQ 100. >> Yeah, I mean this chart it's it doesn't look the greatest. It's been trying to figure out what to do. It had a nice pop, but it's faded down. Uh it's kind of the really all the markets are in in the same boat across the board and and asset classes. They're all trying to figure out what to do. Nvidia is kind of trading in this big support zone. Uh it had a recent run up and it got completely rejected. Had another big gap up, got rejected. Had a big gap up on Thursday, got rejected. There's definitely selling going on. I think the people are starting to to catch on or big funds and fund managers are starting to realize, hey, this is getting frothy. uh the AI bubble might be running out of steam and and and so we're seeing more and more big selling going on in this space. Uh to me it looks like eventually it's going to break down and if I was talking with in with the charts yesterday showing that I think we've got about a um a 7 to 11% pullback in Nvidia that could happen over the next week or so. And that was from that was from yesterday. So, we're looking down potentially somewhere around 160 uh potentially in Nvidia if this this breakdown continues. That's what the charts are pointing to. So, that's going to keep some downward pressure on on the overall stock indices. >> Yeah. So, where Nvidia goes, so goes the market. And I just did a search on that because as I mentioned, it represents 14% of the NASDAQ 100. So, I just did a quick search on chat. When was the last time one single stock had that large of a waiting >> and it couldn't really give me an answer? It just said rarely ever. >> But the S&P in the S, it represents about 8% of the S&P and it uh said no single stock has had that large of a waiting in decades. >> Yeah. >> So, it's also interesting to see there's been a lot of negative news on uh Nvidia just in terms of shareholders selling. I'm sure you read about Michael Barry. uh he's got a large short position in terms of puts over a billion dollars. Uh Peter Teal also sold his entire stake in Nvidia and so did SoftBank sold their entire stake. So a lot of people are selling out of Nvidia and maybe that's why we're seeing this selloff that we've seen here in the last few weeks even despite the uh strong numbers. Yeah, it's it those big those big players, those big names when they do these big calls, I mean, they're so so into it like that they see this forming over a very long period of time and sometimes they're a little early to it. Uh but then eventually it pays off because they they just know how wrong some of these moves in in assets are and they get a little early. But uh the fact that there's a there's several of them now out here. I mean, they're obviously trying to into some regard pump their portfolio. They're trying to create everyone to be fearful and to sell it because they're going to profit huge. But um it's Yeah, I I'm be pretty bearish on Nvidia. I feel like when it starts to collapse, it's going to do what every other, you know, herd mentality stock does where everybody piles in because it's the always in the news and everybody seems to own it. And uh the thing is they all pile in and drive the prices to ludicrous valuations, but then when it turns around, they also jump ship so fast and they they do it at such a lightning speed that the you know it takes staircase up and the elevator down and that's it. Like stocks in in the indices fall four to seven times faster than they go up. So something that goes up takes seven years to grow could be wiped out in one year. And that's why bare markets are so dangerous uh and and reset. So, I'm I I'm I'm excited for a financial reset in the equities market. Like, I obviously don't want the economy to be weak. It's going to be difficult on people, but we do need a reset. We need to let air out of this bag. It's going to create tons of opportunity. Uh unfortunately, those who don't know how to identify or handle are going to get hurt, which there's that's the majority of people, unfortunately. But we do. It'd be nice to get a reset and and reset the markets and asset classes for another big hopefully 5 10 15 year cycle, right? Um that's kind of where we're at. Things are pretty frothy across the board still. The next stock I want to look at, Chris, is Microsoft and it's up 18 to 20% on the year. It owns 27% of Open AI, which owns Chat GBT. So, it's a good proxy for what's happening in that space. Uh what's your take? Look, that thing looks like it's really under pressure here. >> Yeah, it's a really ugly chart. It has uh it had a very high volatility kind of double bottom in play and then it's had a extremely high volatility double top. Similar type of price action, really good news, gets absolutely sold into with heavy heavy volume. It works its way back up, pops up with good news again, has been getting just sold off. It has broken below this critical support level. So, to me, it has topped, it's broken down, it is in a very strong downtrend, and it still looks like it has quite a bit of ways uh to to go at this point. I mean, just using um Fibonacci um extensions, we can get an idea of where this move should run out of steam. And based on where it is as you and I are speaking, I think we could see another, you know, 4% or so to the downside to 453 somewhere in that uh that vicinity maybe before it even finds a bottom and puts in a bounce. So again, Nvidia is looking like it's breaking down. Microsoft has broken down. Uh the only one that's really bucking the trend is Google. And it seems to be like Buffett's team is talking about loading up and buying lots of Google and people are saying that this is so not Berkshire Hathaway. The new management is taking a risk and doing a play that you know Warren would have never really done and so it's creating a lot of questions. That's for sure. >> Well, they said the same thing about Apple and that turned out to be a hell of an investment. >> So, okay. So, you're looking for weakness uh in both the S&P and the NASDAQ. So, we got to find, you know, pockets of strength or where we can allocate dollars toward um strength and and take a defensive approach. Gold's up 50% on the year. It's had a hell of a pull um had a hell of a year this year, but uh why don't we take a look at gold and where you think it's going? >> Yeah, so gold is is taking a breather. I mean, it's doing a beautiful stairst step price action where, you know, it it rallies up, it pauses, it has these huge massive bull flags, and at this point, it really is just in another consolidation. Uh we did we did a trade on gold that was just a quick 15% pretty much. We got in, it ripped straight up, hit our target, pulled back, and then we had this uh this extreme FOMO wave in the market where whoever wasn't in precious metals or gold during this like one and a half week window, they had to get in. And I mean, the the sentiment was insane. I've never seen so many people panicking to get in and saying they bought in and all of this stuff. And then of course, usually when the when everybody's running the same direction, this is like our FOMO indicator. Usually it's going to have a quick pullback and try and shake everybody out and scare them. And it's done that. Now there's a lot of people out there saying, "Has silver put in a top? Has gold put in a top or miners topping?" And and it's funny because we ended up having a small gold trade to get in and people didn't want to get back into gold. It actually scared them that much. uh they go from needing it, you know, the previous week they had to get in and they didn't care. They're paying all-time highs to now I don't know if I want it anymore. And it's the same that we saw when you and I were looking at the Nvidia chart in the morning. They had to have it by the end of the day. They didn't want anything to do with it. And so when we hit these levels, that means the market has to just consolidate, has to trade sideways. It has to work out the bugs, work out the volatility. Anybody who's scared and is getting bored and giving up on gold is going to keep selling. And there's going to be new investors saying, "No, I'll pick it up here. This it's this is a correction. This is a pause. I want to buy it before the next leg higher." So, I'm still bullish on gold. I think we're going to see potentially the equities markets sell off. Money is going to come out of stocks and go into gold and silver and go higher. And I think you and I have shared this this chart before in the past. So on the on the left hand side here, we've got the S&P 500 that hit all-time highs. And then we had gold, the yellow line up here, starting to have a bit of a pause. And then we started to see the stock market sell off. Well, we've got very similar price action right now. Gold on the right hand side is today. We've got gold having this pause on the weekly chart. And now we're starting to see the stock market sell off. And if we look at what happened before, the stock market eventually it has a little bit of a bounce and struggles, but then it starts to break down and starts to sell off and it drops about 19%. While the price of gold shot up like 30%. So I think we're very close to the switch being flipped where people move out of stocks and they pile into precious metals for one big last push higher. And I think there's a big move in gold. I think uh you know $5,100 or $5,200 in gold and silver could be up in the 80s an ounce. Um I think after that I think that they're going to have very sharp corrections, but that's what the charts and the sentiment and the cycles, everything we're looking at are pointing to. So I like I like gold and silver here. They still might take another couple weeks to digest before maybe starting to move higher. I think a lot of it is going to um come back down to what the stock market does. If we look back here, we had kind of three, four weeks that the stock market had a bounce up. These are the weekly charts. And so gold and gold traded sideways during that phase. Everything was trying to figure out what it's going to do. And then once the stock market starts to sell off, that's when gold starts to shoot higher. So I think you got to be patient with gold and let it just mature a little bit more. Let the stock market potentially stall out a little bit more and then I think we're going to see some pretty big moves in the precious metal space. I also continue to be very bullish on gold. My only concern or one caveat I have is Jamie Diamond of JP Morgan. He also went bullish on gold uh earlier this year just here in the last quarter. But he's said gold could easily go to 5,000 or $10,000 an ounce. And he went on to say that it's the first time in his career where investing in gold actually made rational sense. Uh his track record on gold and also Bitcoin uh has not been a good one. He's been totally wrong on both. And now that gold's up 50% on the year, he's starting to wake up to the fact. But you mentioned silver. Why don't we take a look at that? It's up 70% on the year. It's had a hell of a move. Where do you see it going? >> Yeah, si silver still has a really strong price chart. We could we could look at the most recent kind of pause and pullback and, you know, it is it is pointing to a fairly significant move. The next kind of uh measured move is up to around, you know, 63 uh dollars an ounce from where that is. It it's consolidating like gold. It's just more volatile. It's a smaller market, moves faster, but there's potential for, you know, a fairly explosive 27%. I do think it could go even higher than that depending on how you want to draw some of these these levels. Like this is the most conservative approach. The most aggressive one based on the charts would be right around here, which is kind of around 71. And of course, if we do get into this feeding frenzy and it starts to get up there, this is where we go into these blowoff top phases where it hits 71 and it can just spike and blow right on through it up into the 80s because it'll be a big wave of FOMO of everyone piling in right near the peak and it just, you know, price goes straight up. So, um, I like I like silver. I like gold. I I I'm not as big of a fan of minors. I'd rather just stick with the the physical bullion because a perfect example is we saw uh on Thursday we saw the stock market pull back like a percent and a and a third percent and a half. But if you go and you look at like silver miners for example uh they pulled back like five and a half%. And so the here this is this is the problem and we saw this in 2007 as the stock market started to top and sell off is when the stock market tide is going down it pulls most stocks with it. Even if they're in a strong sector like precious metals, you'd make the same amount or more money in just trading gold than you are to try to take the leverage play in a stock because if the stock market falls 20% it's naturally going to pull the gold miners down and keep kind of the muted. Whereas gold is a physical commodity. It's outside of the stock market. And we saw, you know, huge turmoil on Thursday with Nvidia and the unemployment number. And pretty much all the commodities were like pretty pretty still. Gold barely moved. It was slightly positive. Oil barely moved because everybody's attention was on the stock market. They're licking their wounds. They're trying to figure out what to do. So, it just goes to show that, you know, the a commodity is outside of the stock market. And if the stock market is potentially putting in a top here, why not just trade gold or silver because it can keep going up if the stock market crashes? Whereas miners are going to have that real headwind and that struggle every now and then it's going to get hit with a wave of selling. One more chart I want to look at before we move on and that's platinum. It's also had a very good year. Uh it's up over 60% on the year and it's a metal that we don't talk too much about. >> Yeah, I mean it it's holding up fairly well. I mean, it has a series of rally pause, rally pause. It's It's hard to get a gauge. Like, I I think we're going to see all precious metals move higher. You You could argue this might be a little bit of a bare flag. We got this move down and there's potential it might want to unwind and sell off. But if the the precious metal space and gold find a bid here, and then I think we're going to see this take off. We saw platinum and and platium and and silver all rally over 50% in this similar type of price action scenario uh in the last just before the last financial crisis. So u it's still holding up. I think you I think you should be bullish on platinum, platium, silver, gold. Um but it's definitely testing a a support level. It's not quite getting the attention like gold is kind of the ultimate gauge of fear and bra barometer for that. So, it holds up and has the cleanest chart patterns. As soon as you deviate away from gold, you go to silver, platinum, and platium. They're a little more random. They can give you fake signals and fake breakdowns and breakouts to the upside. And they're not quite the same uh they don't have quite the same cleanness to the chart patterns, but they generally will move together. And so, if gold moves up, I would expect platinum to rally as well. Okay, Chris, let's move on to another uh favorite topic of yours, and that's Bitcoin. >> Some people refer to it as digital gold, but uh it topped out earlier this year at $125,000. Now we're trading somewhere between 80 to $85,000. What's your take on this chart? Where do you see it going? >> Yeah, I I think it's it's going to try and find support right down where it is. I mean, there's no doubt it's it's getting pretty oversold. It's had a very strong move to the downside. I would say there's a big support range somewhere right right down to where it has dipped to 80,000 is also a whole number meaning people a lot of people will say well if it hits 80,000 which is you know a level that people just want to say I'll buy some if it gets there. So it is it's pulled down into a high volume support zone and now I think it might have some type of bounce to the upside. I wouldn't touch it at all. I don't like this chart. It's in a downtrend. I don't play bounces within a downtrend. If anything, if it bounces and then starts to roll over, you'd actually want to play to the downside because after this drop, I it's probably going to head on down to, you know, uh around 50,000 after this one. So, it doesn't look very good from a short-term standpoint. Expect it to bounce or trade sideways for a week or three or a couple or maybe even a month or so. But overall, it's a bounce and it's in a downtrend, so it might not have that big of a bounce. And then once it does fail, I think we're looking at another precipitous fall. So it'll it'll drop pretty pretty sharply. And of course, if the NASDAQ sells off, then this is probably going to move down with it. They're fairly highly linked in terms of how they move. So we got to take a look at Micro Strategy, MSTR, which is now called Strategy. They changed the name. I'm not sure why, but but it's a proxy for Bitcoin. They had owned 650,000 Bitcoin at an average cost of $75,000. It's really been under pressure in the last few months. What's your take? >> Yeah, I mean, you and I have touched on this one a few times. I mean, I don't really know the stock. I'm not a I'm not a fan of any company that just buys Bitcoin as their business model and they're just playing and and and pumping it and all that stuff. I I think that's what's going on. I mean, I don't know. I don't follow it. uh the chart looks terrible. It's based on a model that I don't believe in. Um and you know, why don't people just trade trade Bitcoin if they want access to it? Why do they have to go through another stock or company that's doing whatever knows? And um and it just adds more more more guesswork. I'd rather just follow the straight up. So obviously this is getting oversold just like Bitcoin. It's getting down into down into a deep support zone of this previous level. So, I would not be surprised if we see Bitcoin, if we see micro or strategy um bounce from this level, but again, it's I wouldn't touch this thing at all. If you look at the the long-term picture, this this to me just looks like a massive double top. And I wonder what the the monthly chart probably shows a pretty ugly chart pattern. Um obviously, what goes straight up comes straight back down. It's never s usually never sustainable. It has put in a massive double top. It has broken down. it's into support. So, you know, best case scenario, I feel like it could bounce back up to 240 and then it's probably back down to 80 or 40. I mean, I think it'll be pretty worthless. Um, that's just based on the chart pattern. And again, I have a bias, I guess, because I'm not a fan of this strategy or the stock, but the charts do not look good at all. And it's also amazing. So, Micro U Micro Strategy was the first company to add Bitcoin to its balance sheet. Uh there's been various reports anywhere from 160 to 200 companies have taken Bitcoin onto their balance sheet. So it's a strategy many people have employed and I'll tell you if this thing really comes undone, it's going to be you don't know what the long-term implications are for the market overall. >> I I I invested in a company a while ago and uh they were ridiculous. the CEO was nuts and put all their money into Bitcoin to quickly try to double their money even against nobody seemed like wanted it to happen and it blew up and they lost and they went bankrupt. It's unbelievable how Bitcoin gets into people's minds and they just have to go for the so-called quick money. We'll quickly double or make 50% and then we got tons of capital and we can do all the stuff we want. They weren't even in the crypto space and they did it and they blew up. So, I I I I'm not a fan of Bitcoin because there's so much potential that it makes people do stupid things and risk other people's money and and all that. So, I I just I'm very risk focused and so when people don't have risk, I I just I struggle to give them the respect and they and and like I'm just like life is all about me measuring risk. It's all about having a strategy and and and managing risk. We only live once and you got to protect your life, your health, your financial space. But for some reason, as soon as you put high targets on stuff and people are saying million-dollar Bitcoin, people throw all logic out the window and they're like, "Well, if this thing only goes half or a quarter of that, I'm going to make a fortune still." But, you know, the odds aren't very good that it's going to happen. And so, uh, yeah. Anyways, that that's I guess my chip on the shoulder toward on the Bitcoin side of things is only because I deal with thousands of subscribers and I hear them always share like this guy's saying this is going to this price and it's why I try not to put these crazy targets like on on gold and silver. Like I'm putting some pretty high targets on them now because they actually look like they're going to happen. But so many people like years ago, a decade ago were saying 5,000 and they were saying $25,000 gold. And I watch people who listen to these like they're subscribers of mine. They're like, "I did this and I bought this and and it blows up huge in their face." So, um, that's my rant anyway. So, Chris, we can't talk about gold or Bitcoin without talking about the US dollar and it's been under pressure this year. It was down 10%. It's now down around 8%. But, uh, what's your view on the DXY and where do you see it going? And this is, you know, depending on where the US dollar goes, that's also going to dictate the price of gold. And this is one of the reasons why so many central banks and foreign governments have been buying gold is because they're trying to hedge their US dollar uh investments. Yeah. Yeah. So, it looks like uh pretty pretty straightforward price action. You have a series of higher lows that eventually stall out and then they start to make lower lows. And the same with higher highs and higher lows, it's a rounding formation. You could say there was a head and and shoulders style uh pattern that broke down. Well, now we're in this, you know, rounding formation to the upside and it's starting to clear some pretty significant bottoming resistance levels and it's pointing to higher pricing. I mean, it it's, you know, based on the charts, the long-term monthly charts, it's saying we could see um the dollar index back up to like 110, 116, 121. I mean, it can go way way way up there and it no one's expecting it, it seems, because if I say anything bullish on the dollar, I kind of usually get my my face ripped off. Uh, everybody's everybody's bearish on it. And usually when everybody's bearish and they say it's worthless and don't touch it and there's no way it's coming back, there's too much debt, they get into the whole fundamental side. But price action generally doesn't move based on fundamentals. It moves on on emotions and what's going on. And uh this is pointing to way higher pricing. And so a lot of people are going to be caught offside. And we could see the dollar and gold maybe move up a little bit together over the next little bit. But once the dollar does get traction and just starts to skyrocket, not only will the panic selling pull precious metals down because it creates margin calls and and when people are scared, they liquidate everything because they just don't know what they're doing. They don't know what to do. Uh but the rising dollar is going to kill also the the price of of gold and silver. So I think our time is limited in the precious metal space. I think we could see a big move up in metals over the next one to three months after that. Look out below because the only thing going up is going to be like the dollar and probably inverse ETFs. All right, I want to look at one more commodity and that's oil. Uh we just saw some news in the last few days about the possibility of a US-led peace plan between Russia and Ukraine. And because of this, oil's been under pressure, but it's been under pressure for a good part of the year. It's one of the few commodities down the year. It's down about 20%. >> Where do you see oil going here? >> Yeah, I think I think oil is going to get pretty ugly. I think we're going to see it break below 56. I think we're going to head down to about 45 46, potentially even down into the 30s. I mean, the monthly chart, I was going over this with some subscribers this morning, and when you look at the long-term chart of of oil here, let me just uh there's there's a couple key support zones. Right through here is a is a pretty critical support zone. Either price was stuck under it or above it. We have some big pierces through it, but it's a pretty critical pivot point. The next uh critical pivot point is going to be somewhere like I think it's going to be somewhere right down into this range right through here. I think there's a lot of significant positives >> which is what's that $35? >> Yeah.$4 a barrel. >> 31 to about $40 somewhere in that window. And people are like no way it's going to go down there. I'm like yes way anything can happen. I mean if it can go negative then it can also go down to 30 no problem. And it as you can see it has done this many many times really in the last 20 years anyway. This isn't out of the norm. This is just the lower end of the range. uh it's just an elastic band, right? It gets stretched one way, gets let go, comes back the other. So I I I think we're going to see some weakness. And I think if the economy slowly starts to weaken, I think that's one of the reasons oil is also going down is I think a lot of people feel like the economy and things are coming to a grinding halt. Uh oil is not going to be in big demand. There's going to be a ton of supply, not huge demand. And then of course, you know, the sellers will continue to sell oil off and and drive it lower. and and the price of oil right now and the price of gas is that's one of the things that's really saving us uh from an inflation point of view. The government claims inflation's around 3%. Uh I mean if oil were to rip to 80 or 100 bucks a barrel uh all bets are off. And we've seen this before. It gets there relatively quickly. Back in Q1 of 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine, it ripped up to 125 bucks. But as you mentioned in uh what was it? Q1 to Q2 of 2000 2020 it went negative where in the spot market it went down to 25 bucks a barrel. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. So anything can happen. It's in a downward trend. It's more likely to continue to go lower. It's uh getting squeezed onto this support level that if it breaks the next level, next level could be really down, you know, $40 or or less, which is it's going to save the whole inflation side of things. If if oil goes down there, it's going to make inflation not look so bad at all. But um really gas isn't that big that big part of the average person's lifestyle. It's everything else that's now triple in value that we need every day that actually gets us. But >> you're right. But from where I stand, it's more of a psychological uh point because you pass gas stations all the time and you see what the price of gas is. you know, $2 a gallon, $250 a gallon, $3 a gallon, like you see all the time. So, you really know what's happening there, right? Whereas many other >> It's amazing how something that really has a fairly low impact on most people's lives, like the price of gasoline, how I remember back in the day, everybody would watch it every day, like the penny, like what is it trading at to the penny? I'm like, people are like, I can save three pennies if I go to this gas station. I'm like, you know, that's like, you know, a couple bucks or a buck. like it this is not life-changing you know stuff but people get so hyper sensitive and that's that's why the media is so powerful right they keep talking about you know um whatever it is they want to talk about Nvidia and AI or Bitcoin and they just keep putting it on the camera and talking about it and so it's top of mind and everybody's hyper sensitive and any tiny little news feels like something big is happening and that makes people's emotions just percolate and come to life and people make these irrational decisions of to invest pure pure on emotions and news that makes something that's really doesn't mean anything um seem like it's meaningful. So that's but you're right oil is definitely top of mind. Everybody passes a gas station and I mean I I still look at what the the gas of price is. is I mean I don't pick a gas station really based on price but I always look just because I kind of always grew up watching the price of gas and I'm always amazed at the oil market like given it's one of the largest markets in the world how volatile it is and and because of its volatility it has a huge impact on many industries you look at the airline industry right it's their number one cost the mining industry it's their second largest cost right employers >> this is great for energy this is great for if gold prices skyrocket and oil and oil stays down below 50 or in the 40s for a while, man, it's going to be great for miners. >> Margins are huge. >> Yeah. >> So, why don't we uh in the last few minutes here, why don't we just summarize everything you said and why don't we pull up the S&P chart and just start right there. Uh so, you see some weakness in the S&P and the NASDAQ here in the coming days and weeks. Maybe give uh what's your downside on the S&P? Where do you see it going? And are you able to put up the 200 day so we can just see that where we see a potential? Sure. Yeah. So if I put up the 200 day, um I like I like the 150day. I I find it's way more accurate in terms of uh finding gauges, but everyone does seem to want to follow the uh the 200 day. It's kind of the big um the big number. But if we were to look at the 200 day, you know, we've got potential for it to drive drop down to 6313 or 15 there, which is roughly about a a 3% 4% drop from where it is. Uh we we could, you know, take a look at just this topping kind of volatility right through here on the stock market, which looks like it's kind of put in this top. We could uh we just kind of drag this right across. You can see we're at this this major level. Now, if we were to just take the volatility, the height of that top, which it could become a head and shoulders pattern, this is the same way you'd measure it to the downside, actually shows, you know, the S&P 500 has could could actually have a much bigger drop somewhere around this 56% is what I mentioned before. So, it'll be it'd be a big unwinding event and catch a lot of people offguard. And so, it it just comes down to what type of correction are we going to go into? Are we going to go into something huge that maybe some news is going to come out and maybe in in January we get unemployment numbers that are staggering and and it creates a huge wave of selling. Are we just going to get a very sharp pullback where it sells off and then rebounds like right back up again or is it going to be like a multi-wave multimonth pullback and no one knows what the markets are going to do. That's why we just have to follow price and have a strategy. So whichever whatever it does, we we know what to do. So I I think there's a quite a bit of downside potential in the equities market. And then the big question, if it does pull back here, what does it do after? And is it going to is that a bounce before we go into something bigger? Like if the stock market here starts to sell off, James, and precious metals skyrocket, money just comes out of stocks and goes in, I will think we are in the last like month or six weeks of of precious metals having their heyday. And also the stock market I will think has have put in a major top and we'll be starting a new a major bare market. So a lot I think is going to unfold in the next couple weeks as we see things move and how how they move. But right now, it's like you definitely don't want to be holding stocks. I think they're in a downtrend and there's quite a bit of downside and it's across the board. Gold's sideways, silver sideways, oils sideways trying to figure out if it's going to break below 56. The stock market is at support. There there is no clear direction, right? And sometimes you just have to step aside and be like, "Okay, give me direction. Go break support or start a new rally that we can get on board with. Just give us something." But right now, it's at that turning point where it's like, I don't know. I don't know what to do other than sit on my hands and just watch everybody else struggle uh trying to figure it out when you can just step aside. >> Okay. So, you see downside in both the S&P and the NASDAQ in the coming days. Uh and then we might test that support level around the 200 day. You're bullish on gold and silver. Gold, you said, has the potential to go to $5,000 in the next few months. Silver maybe up to 70 or 80 bucks in the next few months, correct? Yep. >> And Bitcoin, you think we might get a bounce here in the next few days? It's at a key level, but overall, you're negative on Bitcoin. >> Yeah. >> Okay. Well, this has been a great session and I want to thank you very much for spending time with us today, Chris, especially after such a volatile week with so much news. If somebody would like to follow you online or check out your services, where can they go? >> Yeah, the the two two spots. Uh YouTube, the technical traders. You can check up my my my videos I share there each week or you go to my websitethetechnicaltraders.com and I manage my portfolio. I share exactly my my daily analysis, my thoughts, my thinking. I give you my exact ETF trades. Really, I copy the markets and you copy my portfolio. We just all trade the same trades at the same time. I try to keep everybody's emotions in check by letting you know you might feel like this today. Hey, you might feel FOMO, but you know, this is these are waves of emotion and they're normal. Let's watch everybody else have these waves of emotion while we like, you know, um kind of understand what's going on and know it's part of the game. So, I just help control people's emotions and um they can navigate their portfolios through these markets safely. >> Well, that's great, Chris. And I will include links to both your website and also your newsletter services in my show notes below. Once again, thank you and enjoy your weekend. >> All right, take care. You too. Bye bye. [Music]