Why I'm Selling the $12 Trillion Tech Bubble | Jared Dillian
Summary
Market Context: Guest compares current market action to 1997-98, noting low VIX and worries about overinvestment and circular deals reminiscent of the late 1990s.
Mega-Cap Tech: Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), and Nvidia (NVDA) at $4T market caps discussed alongside Nvidia’s deals with Uber (UBER) and Nokia (NOK), but the guest remains cautious and is not participating.
Gold: Bullish long-term view maintained despite a ~10% correction; expects a consolidation and renewed breakout, keeping positions unhedged and advocating a double-digit portfolio allocation.
Gold Miners: The guest remains long miners alongside bullion, implying continued confidence in the GICS Gold sub-industry as part of the broader gold allocation.
Argentina: Positive on Argentina under President Milei, highlighting improving conditions and continued conviction through volatility and elections.
Ticker Highlight: Grupo Financiero Galicia (GGAL) discussed in depth as a long-term holding, with the guest adding on weakness and benefiting from a subsequent rally.
Risk Management: Emphasizes hedging when cost-effective, avoiding crowded trades, right-sizing positions, and cutting losses unemotionally to reduce stress.
Portfolio Strategy: Advocates an “awesome portfolio” of 20% each in stocks, bonds, cash, gold, and real estate with annual rebalancing for significantly lower volatility versus a 60/40 or S&P 500-only approach.
Transcript
I put a chart in The Daily Dirtnap the other day, which was kind of like an overlay between today's market and the .com bubble, and it sort of implied that we are really in 1997 or 1998 rather than 2000, and I'm uncomfortable. Being in the same trade as 200 million other people because the exit is very small. Mega cap tech companies have been on a roll lately, especially Nvidia cutting deals with Uber to power, robo taxis, and Nokia to power six G communication. But are these circular deals akin to what we saw in the late 1990s before the.com bubble burst? Jared Dian of Jared Dian money gives us his take to. Day on global macro update. Hey Jared, good to see you, my friend. Always a pleasure. Thanks for joining us. Yeah, good to see you. Some interesting things happening in this week in tech. In the tech space, we now have three companies that have $4 trillion. Market caps each, $4 trillion, apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, and one of the cool things, um. Or actually not cool things. One of the concerning things that I'm seeing is sort of this, the rise of what I call circular deals. Um, and you, you and I are both old enough and have enough gray hair to remember what it was in the late nineties where you had Cisco doing all these deals with their customers for cash so that the customers wouldn't have to come up with cash and Cisco would get, would get equity. That seems to be bubbling up. Any concerns about that? I have a bunch of concerns, but um. You know, I, I put a chart in the Daily Dirt app the other day, which, um, was kind of like an overlay between today's market and the.com bubble. And it sort of implied that we are really in 1997 or 1998 rather than 2000. And, you know, being a trader, like the price action seems to suggest that, um, you know, as I sit and watch SAP and NASDAQ Futures every day. There's really not a lot of volatility. It's a slow grind. Higher. It's what we saw today. It's what we saw yesterday. Um, you know, we gapped up yesterday on the China tariff news, and then we just crawled higher the rest of the day. There's no volatility. And that's the, that's really the type of price action we saw in 1997. In 1999 and 2000, it was insanely volatile. Right. Uh, the vix. The VIX in 1999 was trading between a range of 20 and 30. Um, and this is this, you know, this was the biggest bull market in history. And you know, the conventional wisdom is, is that when the market rallies, volatility gets suppressed. But it actually expanded in 1999 and 2000. So, um, we haven't seen that yet. The VIX is 16, um, and it's, it's going down. Um, so, you know, I don't really, I don't really have any fundamental advice to offer about, from like a business standpoint about Nvidia or Microsoft or Apple. Um, but just from a market standpoint, um, you know, I, I usually carry around some kind of hedge. Um, in s and p puts or some other kind of puts, I usually come up with some structure where I'm not bleeding a lot of carry, uh, and I carry this hedge around just in case of, you know, sort of like tail risk. Um, and it's getting to the point where it's getting expensive to do that, you know? Um, and you know, I'm kind of blabbing on here, but I like, I really, um, I have a tough time. Just being long for a bunch of reasons. You have a tough time being long, but I'm almost wondering if, if, if, if we are in the late nineties or if we're simply, if this time really is different, right? Like, like we should unpack that a little bit because you've got, you've got, Nvidia seems to be everywhere. They just made a billion dollar investment in Nokia. Uh, with the idea being that their technology is gonna power six G Uber announced that, uh, Nvidia is gonna power. A hundred thousand robo taxis, driverless robo taxis, beginning in 2027. Uh, and, and, and I'm just, I'm just, you know, that's just what happened in one day this week. It seems like every week there's another big announcement about Nvidia taking a position in, in another company that happens to be one of their customers. Is this a new type of economy? It's never different. It's never different. By the way, do you know who had taxis in 1999? Yellow, Yahoo. Oh, I forgot about that. That Yahoo had taxis. They did. Yeah. So what they did was is they had these purple taxis. Yeah. And you could surf the internet off this screen in the taxi. Right. It's literally the exact same thing. I mean, it's, it's different, but it's the same. It's never different. It's the nature of capitalism you have. Periods of boom and you have periods of bust, you have periods of overinvestment and mal-investment and you have periods of bust. It always happens and it's gonna happen this time. So it's not a question of, it's if it's a question of when, you know, the, the data center thing is incredible. Um, you know, I brought up the term raccoons in the daily dirt nap, which was coined by Ben Hunt. You know, and I, I, I think Ben Hunt came up with the term, but a raccoon is basically like a money seeking person. Um, maybe a little bit ethically challenged, and you're starting to see raccoons in the data center space, right? Like, it, it, it's so easy. Anybody can do it. Um, so you, you know, this is like the, the thing that concerns me is we are in. We, we, we haven't had a bear market outside the pandemic in 17 years. I guess in 2010 we had a 20% pullback, but it didn't lead to a recession. Um, but we really have not had. A sustained drawdown in 17 years. And the thing that worries me is that when we do get the drawdown, is the magnitude of that drawdown going to be proportional to the length of the bull market. Right. And it's funny because Andrew Ross Sorkin just came out with 1929. And God bless that guy because he has gotten more publicity for that book than any book in history. He rang the bell at the New York Stock Exchange. They had a big banner behind him. It said 1929 with his, with his book and the subtitle like, he has been on Bill Maher, he's been on every show in the universe. Like, I would die for that kind of publicity, right? But I, you know, I think. You know, it's funny, I mean, it took him 10 years to write the book and, uh, I haven't read it. But, uh, you know, knowing him, it's a very well researched book. Um, but I think the timing is kind of interesting, you know, um, the fact that we have had this enormous bull market, uh, that's lasted 17 years. I don't know. So let me gimme a, uh, one statistic to just again, sort of press on the, is this time different thing first half of this year? Microsoft generated $145.6 billion in revenue, $53.1 billion in net income, right? So 33% plus margins. The large cap tech companies are generating boatloads of money, just just phenomenal amounts of cash flow, whereas. In 1999, we were, we, we had all kinds of companies that made no money. Yeah, that's a difference. That's a difference. Um, but you know, you say 53 million of billion of net income times four quarters is 200 billion of net income versus a $4 trillion market cap. Like that to me. Sounds like a 40 pe. 53 billion was two quarters, so, so yeah. So yeah, a hundred, a hundred, 110 billion. Yeah, there's no doubt about it. They serve seem expensive. How? How do you take a company that does $300 billion a year and keep growing? Double digits. I don't have the answer to that. Yeah. Yeah. I wonder if Satya does, I'm guessing you're not participating in this giant tech rally. No, and it's funny because, um, I never have, uh, I even when I should have been like 2013, would've been a good time to participate in the tech rally, um, 2014, 2016, 2017. You know, it, like those all would've been good times to jump on board. I never have, and yet my returns, my, my returns have, you know, come pretty close to or beaten the s and p 500. So you say, well, how do you do that? You know, and there's, there's, there's a lot of, i, I, I guess what I'm trying to say is the investing world is very large. There's so many things you can invest in. Equities in other countries, bonds in other countries, small cap stocks, commodities, gold, like you don't have to, you don't have to do the thing that everybody else is doing, you know? And I'm uncomfortable being in the same trade as 200 million other people. You know, because the exit is very small. So let's talk about gold because, uh, you, you've been long gold for a long time. Um, it, it, it had a fantastic run up. Uh, it, it grabbed all kinds of headlines when it started to correct, uh, recently. And, um, I thought it was kind of funny, you know, like. The amount of drawdown that it's had relative to how much it's gone up in the past year is it's insignificant. It's had a 10% drawdown as of today. It was down 10%, um, which is, you know, a, a plain vanilla correction. Uh. Um, and I think it has, I think it has a little bit more downside, maybe another a hundred, 150 bucks. Um, what I'm surprised about is how fast it happened. Um, it's happened over a period of two weeks. I, I would've figured it would've taken about three months to come down to this level. Um, but eventually what I think's gonna happen is. You know, gold went up and it's correcting and it's gonna bounce and it's gonna form a wedge, and then it's gonna go higher, uh, which is what it did around 3,500, which is what it did around 2,500, which is what it did around 2000. You had these long periods of consolidation and then it breaks out. So, um, still haven't sold any gold, um, or miners. Still long, all of it. Um, I'm not, I'm not really smart enough to hedge it. Um, I've been advised to hedge it by many people. Oh, you should buy some GLD puts. Well, it, I mean, it sounds simple, but, um, if I had bought GLD puts, I would've bought 'em when gold was at 3,800, not when it was at 43 60, you know, so that would've been a complete waste. So I just leave it un hedged. Um. And, uh, yeah, just let it do its thing because you've always said gold should be a a, a double digit part of pretty much anyone's core portfolio. Yeah. Yeah. And you have that book in your email inbox. Yes. Pre pre-print. Yeah. I'm excited to read it. Yep. The awesome portfolio. There's one other thing I wanted to chat with you about, and that is just how unemotional you can be with your trades and with your portfolio. It's a real skillset that I don't think a lot of people have. You know, being able to stomach, uh, a relatively quick double digit draw down if you have conviction in the idea. Argentina is probably a good example of that. Can you maybe walk us through some of what you've talked about with Argentina? I don't think we have time for the whole story, but I'll just say that, um, you know, when Javier Malay first came on the scene, um, I thought that he was, I thought he was gonna be the next president, uh, and bought some, uh, bought a few stocks in Argentina. He got elected, the stocks went up, they continued to go up. The one in particular that I have right now is G Gal, which is Grupo Gia. It's a bank. Um, I think it's the biggest bank in Argentina. And, um, it traded up to $70 a share of the ADRs, and then it traded down to about 39. And I said, okay, this is overdone. So I bought some and then it traded down to 26, it had to the midterm elections. And I said, no way is this guy gonna lose the midterm elections. You know, the quality of life has increased so much in Argentina. You know, he might've lost the local elections in Buenos Aires, but that's Buenos Aires. It's full of Peroni. I said, he's not gonna, he's not gonna lose the, uh, the midterms. And it was, it was a landslide. He won 40 to 20, 27 or 25. Um, and G Gal was, uh. 40 ish percent yesterday it was up another eight, another 8% today. So, um, yeah, that's working out and I'm holding that one for the long term. How do you deal with that from a psychological perspective? When you just enter a trade, right, and, and then it drops. 10, 15%. Um, do, do you, is it an individual case by case assessment or do you have some sort of magic that just makes you not stress about, about that sort of thing? I think it's partially magic. Uh, I don't, it's not that I'm some Buddhist that never gets stressed about anything. Like I get stressed about other things in life, but I don't get stressed about money. I've never been stressed about money except for two times in my life. Once in 2008 and once in 2017. It's the only times in my life I've ever been stressed about money and um, I just. You know, easy come, easy go. You know, I bought it at 39 and went to 26. That's a 33% drawdown, and that happened in a couple of weeks, you know, so then you have to ask yourself, okay, is the thesis still intact? Right? Is the thesis still intact? If it is. Then don't worry about it or buy more. And if it's not intact, if the thesis is broken, then just unemotional sell the position and just move on to the next trade. You know, uh, we had a subscribe, you know, I had a subscriber write into me and he talked about how unemotional I was about cutting losses, you know, and I, I really like it. I, my ego is not tied up in it. I don't feel a need to be right. You know, I can be wrong small a bunch of times, you know, and survive That, I think is the key right there. One of the, one of the key lessons, uh, from Jared Dian, I think is that like, don't size your position too big if it's going to cause you stress. You've taught me that. Um, and I think it's a, I've heard a lot of other people over the years say that you can also have stress if it's going up. If you size your position too big and it goes up, that also causes you stress. 'cause then you're like, now what am I gonna do? Zen Buddha Trading Wisdom with Jared Dillon book. That sounds like my next book. Sensing Jared. I like it. Oh yeah, I think it's a good idea. Yeah, you probably do a lot of people a lot of favors. When is the, uh, awesome portfolio book coming out? Not for a little while. Not till September or next year. Um, I'm actually, you know, when I, I, the secret of this book is. I wrote it in 10 days. I wrote this book in 10 days, so it was Christmas break last year. I wrote it seven days in a row. I did about 5,000 words a day. Then I wrote it one day in March, and then when I went to Mississippi on my writing retreat, I finished it. I wrote it for two more days. So the book is done in 10 days, and when I wrote it, I'm like typing. I'm like, this is absolute crap. Like, I'm like, this is the worst thing I've ever written. So I just hit send to my editor. I'm like, you deal with it. And I figured I was going to hear back all kinds of nasty comments from him. Like he, he loves the book, loves the book. So I'm going back and reading the edits and I'm reading the manuscript and I'm like. Holy crap, this is really good. Like I'm really onto something here, you know? So I'm exci, I'm excited about it. I can't wait for it to come out. We just gotta get some publicity. So I have a, a, I had, unfortunately she passed not too long ago, but I had a, a lovely neighbor who was a pretty well known artist who, um, she would paint really. Intricate elaborate paintings that were maybe, you know, two feet by three feet, pretty good size. And I made the mistake once of asking her, how long does it take her to, to, you know, how long does it take for you to do one of your paintings? And her answer, I'll never forget it, she said it a lifetime. Um, and I, I think that's what's going on with you. You know, you're, you're, you're a lifelong writer, so when you say, I wrote this book in 10 days, that's because you've written for 30 years and you can write a book in 10 days. Well, and it's also because I've been thinking about the awesome portfolio since 2018. I think about it every day. I think everybody should do this. I think this is how people should invest. You know, I think it's a solution, so I, I really, really believe in what I'm doing. Let's end with just the simple version of what is the awesome portfolio? 20% stocks, bonds, cash, gold, and real estate, and you rebalance annually. And it's really that simple. You can do it with five ETFs, no stress. We backtested it, it outperforms, uh, a, a more traditional 60 40 portfolio with a lot less volatility. It doesn't outperform the s and p 500. And that's one of the things I talk about in the book is that. You are trading away about one or 2% a year in gains for much, much less volatility. So it has about half the volatility, the s and p 500, and you're only giving up about one or 2%, about one point a half percent. So, um, and the whole argument of the book is for most people, that is an acceptable trade off. For happiness, right? So you're not checking it every single day. You're not glued to your phone, you're not glued to your computer screen, you're not thinking about it. When you're in bed at night, you don't have, this gets back to the Zen Buddhism thing. You just don't have to think about money ever. And when the market does have a correction, you're not throwing up. In the sink, uh, and selling your selling, selling at the exact wrong time. In 2008, the awesome portfolio was down 9.8%. And the, the s and p 500 was down 38%. Alright, Jared, always good to see you. Yeah. Thank you for this dose of, uh, Buddhist wisdom. Let's do it again soon. Alright. Thank you for stopping by. If you haven't already, please sign up. For my free weekly newsletter where I give you my thoughts on what's happening in the economy and the markets, and a link to our latest interview, you can find a link to that newsletter in the description below. I'm me dagostino. Catch you next week.
Why I'm Selling the $12 Trillion Tech Bubble | Jared Dillian
Summary
Transcript
I put a chart in The Daily Dirtnap the other day, which was kind of like an overlay between today's market and the .com bubble, and it sort of implied that we are really in 1997 or 1998 rather than 2000, and I'm uncomfortable. Being in the same trade as 200 million other people because the exit is very small. Mega cap tech companies have been on a roll lately, especially Nvidia cutting deals with Uber to power, robo taxis, and Nokia to power six G communication. But are these circular deals akin to what we saw in the late 1990s before the.com bubble burst? Jared Dian of Jared Dian money gives us his take to. Day on global macro update. Hey Jared, good to see you, my friend. Always a pleasure. Thanks for joining us. Yeah, good to see you. Some interesting things happening in this week in tech. In the tech space, we now have three companies that have $4 trillion. Market caps each, $4 trillion, apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, and one of the cool things, um. Or actually not cool things. One of the concerning things that I'm seeing is sort of this, the rise of what I call circular deals. Um, and you, you and I are both old enough and have enough gray hair to remember what it was in the late nineties where you had Cisco doing all these deals with their customers for cash so that the customers wouldn't have to come up with cash and Cisco would get, would get equity. That seems to be bubbling up. Any concerns about that? I have a bunch of concerns, but um. You know, I, I put a chart in the Daily Dirt app the other day, which, um, was kind of like an overlay between today's market and the.com bubble. And it sort of implied that we are really in 1997 or 1998 rather than 2000. And, you know, being a trader, like the price action seems to suggest that, um, you know, as I sit and watch SAP and NASDAQ Futures every day. There's really not a lot of volatility. It's a slow grind. Higher. It's what we saw today. It's what we saw yesterday. Um, you know, we gapped up yesterday on the China tariff news, and then we just crawled higher the rest of the day. There's no volatility. And that's the, that's really the type of price action we saw in 1997. In 1999 and 2000, it was insanely volatile. Right. Uh, the vix. The VIX in 1999 was trading between a range of 20 and 30. Um, and this is this, you know, this was the biggest bull market in history. And you know, the conventional wisdom is, is that when the market rallies, volatility gets suppressed. But it actually expanded in 1999 and 2000. So, um, we haven't seen that yet. The VIX is 16, um, and it's, it's going down. Um, so, you know, I don't really, I don't really have any fundamental advice to offer about, from like a business standpoint about Nvidia or Microsoft or Apple. Um, but just from a market standpoint, um, you know, I, I usually carry around some kind of hedge. Um, in s and p puts or some other kind of puts, I usually come up with some structure where I'm not bleeding a lot of carry, uh, and I carry this hedge around just in case of, you know, sort of like tail risk. Um, and it's getting to the point where it's getting expensive to do that, you know? Um, and you know, I'm kind of blabbing on here, but I like, I really, um, I have a tough time. Just being long for a bunch of reasons. You have a tough time being long, but I'm almost wondering if, if, if, if we are in the late nineties or if we're simply, if this time really is different, right? Like, like we should unpack that a little bit because you've got, you've got, Nvidia seems to be everywhere. They just made a billion dollar investment in Nokia. Uh, with the idea being that their technology is gonna power six G Uber announced that, uh, Nvidia is gonna power. A hundred thousand robo taxis, driverless robo taxis, beginning in 2027. Uh, and, and, and I'm just, I'm just, you know, that's just what happened in one day this week. It seems like every week there's another big announcement about Nvidia taking a position in, in another company that happens to be one of their customers. Is this a new type of economy? It's never different. It's never different. By the way, do you know who had taxis in 1999? Yellow, Yahoo. Oh, I forgot about that. That Yahoo had taxis. They did. Yeah. So what they did was is they had these purple taxis. Yeah. And you could surf the internet off this screen in the taxi. Right. It's literally the exact same thing. I mean, it's, it's different, but it's the same. It's never different. It's the nature of capitalism you have. Periods of boom and you have periods of bust, you have periods of overinvestment and mal-investment and you have periods of bust. It always happens and it's gonna happen this time. So it's not a question of, it's if it's a question of when, you know, the, the data center thing is incredible. Um, you know, I brought up the term raccoons in the daily dirt nap, which was coined by Ben Hunt. You know, and I, I, I think Ben Hunt came up with the term, but a raccoon is basically like a money seeking person. Um, maybe a little bit ethically challenged, and you're starting to see raccoons in the data center space, right? Like, it, it, it's so easy. Anybody can do it. Um, so you, you know, this is like the, the thing that concerns me is we are in. We, we, we haven't had a bear market outside the pandemic in 17 years. I guess in 2010 we had a 20% pullback, but it didn't lead to a recession. Um, but we really have not had. A sustained drawdown in 17 years. And the thing that worries me is that when we do get the drawdown, is the magnitude of that drawdown going to be proportional to the length of the bull market. Right. And it's funny because Andrew Ross Sorkin just came out with 1929. And God bless that guy because he has gotten more publicity for that book than any book in history. He rang the bell at the New York Stock Exchange. They had a big banner behind him. It said 1929 with his, with his book and the subtitle like, he has been on Bill Maher, he's been on every show in the universe. Like, I would die for that kind of publicity, right? But I, you know, I think. You know, it's funny, I mean, it took him 10 years to write the book and, uh, I haven't read it. But, uh, you know, knowing him, it's a very well researched book. Um, but I think the timing is kind of interesting, you know, um, the fact that we have had this enormous bull market, uh, that's lasted 17 years. I don't know. So let me gimme a, uh, one statistic to just again, sort of press on the, is this time different thing first half of this year? Microsoft generated $145.6 billion in revenue, $53.1 billion in net income, right? So 33% plus margins. The large cap tech companies are generating boatloads of money, just just phenomenal amounts of cash flow, whereas. In 1999, we were, we, we had all kinds of companies that made no money. Yeah, that's a difference. That's a difference. Um, but you know, you say 53 million of billion of net income times four quarters is 200 billion of net income versus a $4 trillion market cap. Like that to me. Sounds like a 40 pe. 53 billion was two quarters, so, so yeah. So yeah, a hundred, a hundred, 110 billion. Yeah, there's no doubt about it. They serve seem expensive. How? How do you take a company that does $300 billion a year and keep growing? Double digits. I don't have the answer to that. Yeah. Yeah. I wonder if Satya does, I'm guessing you're not participating in this giant tech rally. No, and it's funny because, um, I never have, uh, I even when I should have been like 2013, would've been a good time to participate in the tech rally, um, 2014, 2016, 2017. You know, it, like those all would've been good times to jump on board. I never have, and yet my returns, my, my returns have, you know, come pretty close to or beaten the s and p 500. So you say, well, how do you do that? You know, and there's, there's, there's a lot of, i, I, I guess what I'm trying to say is the investing world is very large. There's so many things you can invest in. Equities in other countries, bonds in other countries, small cap stocks, commodities, gold, like you don't have to, you don't have to do the thing that everybody else is doing, you know? And I'm uncomfortable being in the same trade as 200 million other people. You know, because the exit is very small. So let's talk about gold because, uh, you, you've been long gold for a long time. Um, it, it, it had a fantastic run up. Uh, it, it grabbed all kinds of headlines when it started to correct, uh, recently. And, um, I thought it was kind of funny, you know, like. The amount of drawdown that it's had relative to how much it's gone up in the past year is it's insignificant. It's had a 10% drawdown as of today. It was down 10%, um, which is, you know, a, a plain vanilla correction. Uh. Um, and I think it has, I think it has a little bit more downside, maybe another a hundred, 150 bucks. Um, what I'm surprised about is how fast it happened. Um, it's happened over a period of two weeks. I, I would've figured it would've taken about three months to come down to this level. Um, but eventually what I think's gonna happen is. You know, gold went up and it's correcting and it's gonna bounce and it's gonna form a wedge, and then it's gonna go higher, uh, which is what it did around 3,500, which is what it did around 2,500, which is what it did around 2000. You had these long periods of consolidation and then it breaks out. So, um, still haven't sold any gold, um, or miners. Still long, all of it. Um, I'm not, I'm not really smart enough to hedge it. Um, I've been advised to hedge it by many people. Oh, you should buy some GLD puts. Well, it, I mean, it sounds simple, but, um, if I had bought GLD puts, I would've bought 'em when gold was at 3,800, not when it was at 43 60, you know, so that would've been a complete waste. So I just leave it un hedged. Um. And, uh, yeah, just let it do its thing because you've always said gold should be a a, a double digit part of pretty much anyone's core portfolio. Yeah. Yeah. And you have that book in your email inbox. Yes. Pre pre-print. Yeah. I'm excited to read it. Yep. The awesome portfolio. There's one other thing I wanted to chat with you about, and that is just how unemotional you can be with your trades and with your portfolio. It's a real skillset that I don't think a lot of people have. You know, being able to stomach, uh, a relatively quick double digit draw down if you have conviction in the idea. Argentina is probably a good example of that. Can you maybe walk us through some of what you've talked about with Argentina? I don't think we have time for the whole story, but I'll just say that, um, you know, when Javier Malay first came on the scene, um, I thought that he was, I thought he was gonna be the next president, uh, and bought some, uh, bought a few stocks in Argentina. He got elected, the stocks went up, they continued to go up. The one in particular that I have right now is G Gal, which is Grupo Gia. It's a bank. Um, I think it's the biggest bank in Argentina. And, um, it traded up to $70 a share of the ADRs, and then it traded down to about 39. And I said, okay, this is overdone. So I bought some and then it traded down to 26, it had to the midterm elections. And I said, no way is this guy gonna lose the midterm elections. You know, the quality of life has increased so much in Argentina. You know, he might've lost the local elections in Buenos Aires, but that's Buenos Aires. It's full of Peroni. I said, he's not gonna, he's not gonna lose the, uh, the midterms. And it was, it was a landslide. He won 40 to 20, 27 or 25. Um, and G Gal was, uh. 40 ish percent yesterday it was up another eight, another 8% today. So, um, yeah, that's working out and I'm holding that one for the long term. How do you deal with that from a psychological perspective? When you just enter a trade, right, and, and then it drops. 10, 15%. Um, do, do you, is it an individual case by case assessment or do you have some sort of magic that just makes you not stress about, about that sort of thing? I think it's partially magic. Uh, I don't, it's not that I'm some Buddhist that never gets stressed about anything. Like I get stressed about other things in life, but I don't get stressed about money. I've never been stressed about money except for two times in my life. Once in 2008 and once in 2017. It's the only times in my life I've ever been stressed about money and um, I just. You know, easy come, easy go. You know, I bought it at 39 and went to 26. That's a 33% drawdown, and that happened in a couple of weeks, you know, so then you have to ask yourself, okay, is the thesis still intact? Right? Is the thesis still intact? If it is. Then don't worry about it or buy more. And if it's not intact, if the thesis is broken, then just unemotional sell the position and just move on to the next trade. You know, uh, we had a subscribe, you know, I had a subscriber write into me and he talked about how unemotional I was about cutting losses, you know, and I, I really like it. I, my ego is not tied up in it. I don't feel a need to be right. You know, I can be wrong small a bunch of times, you know, and survive That, I think is the key right there. One of the, one of the key lessons, uh, from Jared Dian, I think is that like, don't size your position too big if it's going to cause you stress. You've taught me that. Um, and I think it's a, I've heard a lot of other people over the years say that you can also have stress if it's going up. If you size your position too big and it goes up, that also causes you stress. 'cause then you're like, now what am I gonna do? Zen Buddha Trading Wisdom with Jared Dillon book. That sounds like my next book. Sensing Jared. I like it. Oh yeah, I think it's a good idea. Yeah, you probably do a lot of people a lot of favors. When is the, uh, awesome portfolio book coming out? Not for a little while. Not till September or next year. Um, I'm actually, you know, when I, I, the secret of this book is. I wrote it in 10 days. I wrote this book in 10 days, so it was Christmas break last year. I wrote it seven days in a row. I did about 5,000 words a day. Then I wrote it one day in March, and then when I went to Mississippi on my writing retreat, I finished it. I wrote it for two more days. So the book is done in 10 days, and when I wrote it, I'm like typing. I'm like, this is absolute crap. Like, I'm like, this is the worst thing I've ever written. So I just hit send to my editor. I'm like, you deal with it. And I figured I was going to hear back all kinds of nasty comments from him. Like he, he loves the book, loves the book. So I'm going back and reading the edits and I'm reading the manuscript and I'm like. Holy crap, this is really good. Like I'm really onto something here, you know? So I'm exci, I'm excited about it. I can't wait for it to come out. We just gotta get some publicity. So I have a, a, I had, unfortunately she passed not too long ago, but I had a, a lovely neighbor who was a pretty well known artist who, um, she would paint really. Intricate elaborate paintings that were maybe, you know, two feet by three feet, pretty good size. And I made the mistake once of asking her, how long does it take her to, to, you know, how long does it take for you to do one of your paintings? And her answer, I'll never forget it, she said it a lifetime. Um, and I, I think that's what's going on with you. You know, you're, you're, you're a lifelong writer, so when you say, I wrote this book in 10 days, that's because you've written for 30 years and you can write a book in 10 days. Well, and it's also because I've been thinking about the awesome portfolio since 2018. I think about it every day. I think everybody should do this. I think this is how people should invest. You know, I think it's a solution, so I, I really, really believe in what I'm doing. Let's end with just the simple version of what is the awesome portfolio? 20% stocks, bonds, cash, gold, and real estate, and you rebalance annually. And it's really that simple. You can do it with five ETFs, no stress. We backtested it, it outperforms, uh, a, a more traditional 60 40 portfolio with a lot less volatility. It doesn't outperform the s and p 500. And that's one of the things I talk about in the book is that. You are trading away about one or 2% a year in gains for much, much less volatility. So it has about half the volatility, the s and p 500, and you're only giving up about one or 2%, about one point a half percent. So, um, and the whole argument of the book is for most people, that is an acceptable trade off. For happiness, right? So you're not checking it every single day. You're not glued to your phone, you're not glued to your computer screen, you're not thinking about it. When you're in bed at night, you don't have, this gets back to the Zen Buddhism thing. You just don't have to think about money ever. And when the market does have a correction, you're not throwing up. In the sink, uh, and selling your selling, selling at the exact wrong time. In 2008, the awesome portfolio was down 9.8%. And the, the s and p 500 was down 38%. Alright, Jared, always good to see you. Yeah. Thank you for this dose of, uh, Buddhist wisdom. Let's do it again soon. Alright. Thank you for stopping by. If you haven't already, please sign up. For my free weekly newsletter where I give you my thoughts on what's happening in the economy and the markets, and a link to our latest interview, you can find a link to that newsletter in the description below. I'm me dagostino. Catch you next week.