"Something Else Is Going On" at the Fed – December Rate Cut in Doubt | DiMartino Booth
Summary
Fed Policy: Powell’s hawkish tone despite weakening labor data cast doubt on a December cut and pressured markets intraday.
Layoffs & Labor: Aggregated layoffs surged with detailed cuts at UPS (UPS) and Amazon (AMZN), signaling mounting recession risk and consumer strain.
AI/Data Centers: The AI-led data center buildout remains a key bright spot, boosting heavy equipment demand and contributing to higher electricity costs, while Nvidia’s momentum was highlighted.
Housing Market: Pending home sales were flat, buyers remain on strike despite lower mortgage rates, and delinquencies are rising, indicating continued housing weakness.
Private Credit: Ongoing stress includes recent European blowups, elevated U.S. bankruptcies, and subprime lender downgrades, with ripple effects across credit markets.
Consumer Finance Tightening: Credit card lenders are cutting lines, banks are raising rates even for prime borrowers, and small businesses face constrained access to credit.
Key Companies: UPS (UPS) expanded layoffs and cost cuts, while Amazon (AMZN) faces workforce reductions and potential automation, underscoring corporate belt-tightening.
Outlook & Risks: If layoffs persist into November despite typical seasonal slowdown, it would reinforce recession concerns and further challenge consumer spending.
Transcript
There has to be something else going on in my view uh for him to have been so hawkish today given the the huge amount of data that we've seen that the labor market has continued to weaken. And yet he referred back to the August unemployment rate. Look, it's Halloween for heaven's sakes. So we're talking about August? I don't think so. >> Danielle D. Martino Booth, CEO and chief strategist at QI Research, author of the book Fed Up, an insider's take on why the Federal Reserve is bad for America. It is so wonderful to see you today from New York in studio. I wish I could be there, but unfortunately I couldn't make it today. But Danielle, great to see you as always. >> Well, great to see you and know that you're missed. So, um, and that we'll have to do this next time for sure. >> You will not miss the December one. That >> December the 10th. Yeah, that's right. I mean, who is missing after today the December the 10th? >> Absolutely not. >> Okay. Well, I have to say this episode, this is episode 300. So, I'm just thrilled to have you as our guest today on the Super Bowl for you. We have the FOMC day. We got to get your reaction, especially to Fed Chair Powell's comments around the question he got at the presser around a December rate cut. And that is not a foregone conclusion. It is far from it that we'll see a rate cut. I just have to get your big picture reaction to today's FOMC and the presser. >> So, you know, I think that it's it's highly feasible that that Jerome Powell was purposely tonedeaf today. I don't know if he's got a different agenda going on in the background. I don't know if he doesn't have an internet connection at work these last two days. if he hasn't been able to follow the headlines and some of the extraordinary news of layoffs that we've seen, by the way, not of not all of which were related to AI at all. I there has to be something else going on in my view, uh, for him to have been so hawkish today given the the huge amount of data that we've seen that the labor market has continued to weaken. And yet, he referred back to the August unemployment rate. Look, it's Halloween for heaven's sakes, so we're talking about August. I don't think so. >> If you had to speculate, what do you think is going on? >> I I mean, there is uh you know, there is a fox in the hen house. There is what appears now to be a permanent denter. You've got Steven Myron who is uh you know he's I I think he'll probably descent in December and then he'll descent again in January and then he will make his way back to his full paying day job at the White House and I think everybody on that committee will probably be saying and don't let the door hit you in the backside on the way out. Um, so I don't know if the if if if other policy makers at the Fed are being more hawkish in order to uh to tell the current administration, you know, we will not cowttow to you. We actually have power over the bond markets. We can raise interest rates, we can raise mortgage rates, we can do what we want with the statement, with the with the Powell press conference. In fact, I I'll be I don't think I'm going to get any sleep. I hope that Fed officials don't have any overseas speeches in the coming days because we're all going to be listening to all of them to see and glean what we can about what that meeting was like. >> Yeah. How about the other descent um from Kansas City's >> Schmid? Jeffrey Schmid. >> Yeah. And I mean, you know what's again, this whole episode feels kind of orchestrated. Uh Jeffrey Schmid, Kansas City Fed. He's a fairly new uh president. He's got the December vote and then he rotates off a voting rotation for the next three years. Uh you know, he's never been a particularly uh aggressive voice uh among Fed officials. He doesn't he doesn't, you know, try and and hog the limelight. He's not, you know, first out of the gate like Jim Bullard always was when he was a governor to be on CNBC in the morning with the first hit. So, it was interesting to see him of all people uh come out in descent in favor of having not cut rates today in in in light of the fact that there's only been one official data point to have been released, one since the government shut down and that was the consumer price index that came in appreciably cooler than what was expected. So you know my question would be on what basis was the descent made if if the inflation data is being is is demonstrating that price pressures are cooling in addition to craft hind and mandles and countless consumer staples companies countless discretionary goods sellers are saying if it's not part of the top 10% who account for 50% of buying we ain't got no pricing power. So, it's it's a very very interesting backdrop. I will be on tent hooks in a few weeks uh in 3 weeks from today when we see the minutes released to see whether or not Schmid had individuals who were close to he was and possibly dissenting. >> H interesting. That'll be interesting. Yeah. To go through the minutes and parse that. Okay. The markets today >> interesting because we had like the S&P hit 6,900 today. Then the markets pulled back when Pal was speaking during the presser around the comments I take it around that it's far from a foregone conclusion that we'll see a rate cut in December. Um so I guess maybe I'll ask a few questions here. What do you think the Fed should do? Are they on the right path that they should continue to do cuts or >> Well, I mean, unless we, you know, missed the headline, Julia, that the Fed no longer has a labor mandate, then the answer's unequivocally yes. And I think that that was what what stoked so much confusion today in the markets. Again, it's because these are not, you know, UPS yesterday is like, oh, sorry. you know, layoffs were actually 70% higher than what we had origin originally announced. So they they now amount to 48,000. And by the way, we're going to save another couple billion dollars in the current quarter. So, you know, there might be another 12,000 people fired from UPS just based on the cost cost savings that they announced um with their earnings. General Motors came out after the close. There's 2,900 uh being laid off indefinitely. Look, the laundry list is right. Meta laying off 600 in AI, Paramount, um Amazon, they they had 14,000 in one fell swoop of the 30,000 that they plan to um to fire out of their ranks. Julia, none of this makes sense. None of it makes sense. Again, unless there's an agenda, and I am not a conspiracy theorist, but policy makers are being willfully blind in order to, you know, stick it to the administration. It's kind of obvious. Or they're just completely insensitive to what's happening with working men and women across the country. In which case, again, did we miss the headline? Has the Fed's labor mandate been eradicated by Congress? and we just didn't pick up on that news. >> I do wonder though, like it makes me kind of lean toward maybe it is sticking it to the administration. Then >> it's there are very few other explanations, especially as the Fed is announcing that it's going to be stopping the roll off of the balance sheet, that it's going to be potentially pumping 35 billion a month of mortgage back securities rolloff proceeds into the Treasury market. You know, normally when markets are beginning to clamor for liquidity, the Fed's going to back that up by being in an easing mode. >> So, you know, this has it's highly contradictory policy that's being made right now. >> Gold keeps setting new all-time highs, but price appreciation isn't the only way to profit from owning gold. Monetary Metals is redefining the future of precious metals investing. Instead of paying to store gold, imagine getting paid to own it. With monetary medals, you can earn up to 4% on your gold paid [music] in physical gold. That's right. Your ounces grow each month, not just your paper balance. A yield on gold paid in gold means you're stacking more ounces every [music] single month. And you still benefit if gold's prices rise. You're earning more gold every month and enjoying potential price appreciation [music] at the same time. Go to monetary-medals.com/dullia to learn more [music] and see how you can start earning 4% on your gold paid in gold. Um, it makes me wonder too with the data, the data, the lack of data. I know we've gotten a little tiny piece, but you know, the lack of data because of the shutdown. Are they just not looking at the data coming out as you mentioned that laundry list of layoffs from major companies, UPS, Amazon, Intel, Meta, Salesforce, there's a ton of them. Do they look at that or they are they going to say okay we have to rely on u because you you and I the last time we spoke they have like the data sets they look at right and it's kind of controversial to bring a new data set I don't really know all the pieces that they're looking at but do they look at individual layoff announcements >> it it's not well they certainly follow aggregated layoff announcements and again that is the aggregated count of layoffs that have been announced this month equate to the second highest level in the aggregate in two years. I I know from personal experience working inside the Fed for nine years. They follow layoff information. They follow ADP figures. In a 2019 speech, Jerome Powell himself said as much. And you know, ADP kind of revolutionized the data world, or at least it rocked mine, that they're now going to be rolling out on a weekly basis every Tuesday. We're going to get a rolling four-week count of what layoffs look like in this country. Fed officials have already said we use ADP and you know as a backup. So now we know that Fed officials are going to have that with greater frequency. >> So the shutdown's not an excuse then. It's why it's kind of like huh >> that that's the whole point. And again one earnings report after another. It's companies saying, you know, if it's not related to data centers and building data centers like Caterpillar today, they were like, we are rocking it because we're selling so much heavy equipment because there are so many data centers being built all around the country. Well, that makes sense. But outside of this AI data center revolution, now that we've got 5,500 of them in the country compared to the next closest country with 500, slight disconnect. Um, but absent the AI revolution, if you will, most other companies are saying that they're struggling with pricing power. And that that speaks to pressure on on inflation. We learned that home price uh home price gains fell to the lowest level since the middle of 2023. in the most recent report. Shelter [snorts] is what was the biggest drag on the one data point that we did get the September CPI report. Um and and these are things that the Fed can again follow in real time because they know what the inputs are for for home prices. So it know the idea that they can hide behind um some some kind of a a guysise and say we're not we're not able to be data dependent because we have no data is just flatout wrong. >> So is the inflation side of the mandate or that equation that's no longer the issue really then it's do you think that's pretty much been solved? companies have been rolling with these tariffs and able to absorb them at least in and that's actually not even a big surprise uh because companies have had the the strongest profit margins in the history of mankind these last few years. They had a little bit of cushion. Um, but you can tell the cushion's running out though when they start announcing layoffs. >> So, um, again, you know, somebody made the comment, you know, there there was a there was a story flying around on what used to be called Twitter about Amazon's quiet plans to to replace 600,000 employees in coming years with robots. And, you know, a lot of people were like, "Cool. They're not a charity. They're not a not for-profit company. They've got shareholders. And you know, the retort there was who's going to buy if you really start to to cut to such depths? And that's the thing when you have layoffs start aggregating as they have. We're at 140,000 with a few days left in the month of of October. You start talking about individuals who are not just not being hired, which we hear about every single day, but also on top of that, people who are losing their jobs. Julie, I'll give you one data set that the Fed had going into this meeting. >> Mhm. >> Every every month the US economy has created about 4 and a half million jobs on uh in terms of job creation. When you net that against job destruction and individuals who've been giving up on looking for work, this is official data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through the month of August. The only data that we have, we know that in the last 12 months, that half of them have seen net job destruction. It's a very simple construct. The economy is destroying more jobs than it's created in six of the last 12 months. Well, guess what? If you look back at the three recessions that preceded the quick COVID recession that was kind of a mad man phenomena, by the time we got to that level, the economy is already in recession. Now, that's official data that the Fed can chew on if they'd like. >> Hence, we are already in recession then. >> Oh my gosh. I look Don't you the beauty of my world is you don't have to ask me anymore. Mhm. >> I've got other people who are raising their hands to talk about it. >> Yeah. I just had Dr. Gary Schilling on and we were talking about this exact topic and he said 60% probability that we're already in a recession, but I think he's waiting for more data um to show that. But yeah, it's definitely coming up more. Um you know, it's also interesting on layoffs. It seems to me that when you see like the first big name kind of come out and announce then suddenly like other companies there's like a parade of them because it's like oh you can kind of put out that bad unpleasant news and you're among a crowd. Do you think I don't know if there's anything to that but it kind of sometimes feels that way with layoffs. So, you know, it's it's interesting you asked that question, Julia, because in a lot of the CEO confidence reports that we're provided on a quarterly basis, a lot of CEOs feel intimidated by the potential for AI to make them less competitive and they've also been concerned about uh the ability to finance capital expenditures going forward. But the combination of these two is is what is causing corporate America at large to say, you know what, the one thing that we can control for in the biggest line item in terms of our expenses is labor costs. And so they are pushing forward. And to your question about why now, look, the US government's been shut down for nearly a month. Um, there's all kinds of great trade negotiations going on all over the world. It's kind of like the the peace in the Middle East that we saw that lasted for all of two weeks. So, everybody loves a distracting headline or two. Nvidia's going to the moon thanks to passive flows. >> Yeah. 5 trillion. >> You know, um, in an environment like this, if I'm Joe Q CEO or Jen Q CFO, let the headline fly. There's so much else going on. And you do it right before the holiday season because you're not in Thanksgiving Christmas yet. That's when you probably look like a really bad guy if you do it around that time. But >> yeah, actually um since you brought that up, uh the people oft macro edge who were who who do a very good job of a real time layoff tally. uh they were saying that even though this October is much greater than any October um in in in their data series history that the real tell would be if layoffs continue into November. >> Why would that be the real tell? Is that just because it's a little bit more >> just because of what you said >> more unusual as you get closer to the holidays gets even harder. >> Who's going to fire people into Thanksgiving? >> Yeah. >> Um so that will be it'll be very very interesting. October is usually a month when we see a little bit of a lift in layoffs because a lot of companies these last few years they don't want to be they don't want to take the headlines, right? UPS was like we found out about it in an earnings report after the fact. >> Um so earnings season is always a time when companies reveal that layoffs have have happened post facto. Uh but if this continues into November and so many companies are saying we saw a hard stop in economic activity in the month of September. If that's the case then we will plow right into the holidays with layoffs. So, it'll be interesting to see on a seasonal given seasonal trends in in prior years what we see in just a few days as we go into November with all kinds of worst case scenarios like no food stamp money being paid and government employees missing their second paycheck. This episode is brought to you by Vanex Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF, ticker symbol REMX. [music] Rare earths are the hidden backbone of modern technology and defense, powering everything from smartphones and electric vehicles to fighter jets and wind turbines. Van recognized this early, launching the rare earth and strategic metals ETF, ticker symbol REMX, 15 years ago, well before supply chain security became a global priority. Today, China dominates the production and refining capacity of rare earths, creating real challenges for global supply chain security as these materials are essential for technological innovation, clean energy, and national security. 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Because the markets, every time they do a cut, it seems like they cheerlead it cuz markets pulled back today based on that rhetoric from Pal that it's not necessarily going to happen in December. And we have markets that have been at all-time highs. So I guess that my question it kind of feels like they're two economies right now. And do the cuts do they actually help the regular people or they just kind of help the markets just rip again? >> Well, they certainly do that on on the on the market side. So they can they continue to have the top 10% who account for 50% of spending. they continue to to skew that balance more in in their favor. Uh but by the same token, you know, the one that I because like for example, automobile loan borrowing rates have gone up. >> Mhm. >> In recent weeks, credit card lenders are clamping down. They're starting to cut credit lines um as they're seeing delinquencies pass through. But the one example that I always fall back on, the one example I always fall back on is the small business owner. And it's the small business owner who is not enjoying record tight spreads in the corporate bond market. The small business owner is not able to access credit. And in fact, the National Federation of Independent Business that the data that we see on a monthly basis conveys as much that they are not able to access credit at least at at a reasonable cost. And you know, I'm color me old-fashioned, but I'd like the idea of entrepreneurship and small and medium-sized businesses being able to access financing to hire people to grow. And that's what Fed cuts can help. >> That's important to understand, too. And like small businesses,memes, they are the backbone of the American economy, too. I was just more of a clarification because I wasn't I was kind of like I guess I wasn't quite sure because I'm >> you know I guess I look at the markets too much that >> borrowing costs for especially at times like these when when credit standards are tightening Vantage score reported just a few days ago that they're seeing um mortgage delinquencies rise at a faster pace on a relative basis compared to credit card and auto delinquencies. And Vantage Score also said that they're seeing a creep up in delinquencies among prime borrowers in these kinds of environments. If you it doesn't matter who you are. If you don't have absolutely pristine credit, banks are increasing the interest rate levels at which people are borrowing regardless of what the Fed is doing with monetary policy. and they will continue to do so until they stop losing money on bad loans. >> Mhm. Um, another area I'm curious about is the housing sector especially, um, when I think of like interest rates and lowering rates like how do you think maybe one let's start with like your assessment of housing today and how how do you think this might play? I mean, you know, look, I mean, we we get very little kind of official data, but we did see that pending home sales um instead of rising 1.2% month overmonth came in flat as a pancake in the month of September. And we're hearing uh from Red Fin, from realtor.com that even with the decline in mortgage rates to a recent 2-year low, that that hasn't been sufficient to pull buyers off the sidelines because home prices remain so prohibitively high. And of course, with the move that we saw in the bond market today, tomorrow's headlines will tell us that mortgage rates have gone up because they actually decline in anticipation of Fed rate cuts. And then it's kind of a buy the rumor, sell the fat kind of phenomenon to where uh especially if there's moves in the bond market like what we saw today, you're actually going to see the next mortgage prints go up. So, um, and again, we're in the middle of a buyer strike ac across a lot of American, uh, metro areas and home prices are they are falling. But despite mortgage rates, it's clear that they're not falling enough. And you fill that blank in with the labor market, especially when you've got food price inflation going haywire and the cost of electricity going haywire because of data centers. you know, at some point, Julie, you're going to have people bunking up. >> Yeah. Um I'm I'm asking this, too, because as someone who like would like to buy a house, I'm I'm almost just waiting at this point that I'm just not going to do anything at this point because >> Yeah. >> Well, remember, if there's one thing that trumps mortgage rates, it is the unemployment rate. Mhm. >> And everything that we see, whether it's University of Michigan, you know, fears of a rising unemployment rate that popped up to 65 65% of Americans in the second half of October, um, feared that the unemployment rate was going to be rising. That matched the post cycle high that we saw just a few months ago. So that's, you know, twothirds of Americans saying we anticipate the unemployment rate is going to rise. uh historically speaking and the University of Michigan is a very long data set that means that you know to Dr. Schilling's point we are in a recession. >> Yeah. Yeah. Certainly. And I I feel like too like people Yeah. is like you said before if you have a job keep the job because it's been hard to get a job. But also when you see the headlines like that everyone's probably going to know someone who's been impacted. At least you see it like I see it on I go on LinkedIn and I'm like I see people saying that they got let go or they're offering to like help someone else who's gotten let go. So you definitely see it almost more amplified. >> Imagine how the average American right now feels if they're a recent college graduate. If there's a middle manager, white collar worker who's recently lost their job. Imagine how they would feel if they were to be able to read from the transcript from Powell's press conference today that the US economy does not need to create as many jobs because there's been so much out migration because of the administration's policy. I venture to say that they would be like wait I'm still here. I'm still here in the United States of America and I am unemployed and I count >> because of the immigration crackdown. That's the other dynamic. Okay. explain like why folks have that wrong. That is another argument that has come up is that hey maybe we don't need to create as many jobs because we don't have as many people coming into the country. Counter that >> you know Julia that's absolutely true compared to the last several years. Um but I think if I I think if demand was sufficient absent the workers who have left this country that we wouldn't have all of these sidelined workers. We wouldn't have nine out of every 10 homebuilders in the state of Texas which is a state filled with immigrants both illegal and legal. Why on earth would nine out of 10 US Texas-based homebuilders be laying off employees? It it just makes no sense. If they had a huge um release on the supply side because they lost all of these illegal workers and they returned to their countries, why are they still laying off the ones who remain unless it's a demand story and not a supply story? And I think that that's what people are missing. Mhm. And you are someone who is known for kind of you're like a bit of a detective. I feel like you're the one who kind of uncovers these hidden narratives too. Um I got to ask you this cuz the last time we spoke you brought up something that was so fascinating which was what what has been happening in private credit. Um it was the first brand story that was like what was blowing up on the Bloomberg chat. You run a very popular Bloomberg chat. Um what is what's the conversation these days like what because that was so fascinating. What are y'all talking about these days? >> Um so we are still talking about private credit. >> Let's talk about it. Yeah. >> I mean there were three blowups in Europe uh in the last 24 hours. I mean that's not necessarily related to what's happening here in the United States but some of the biggest names uh who play in that private credit space were also names in Europe. I mean they do make investments provide credit in other places but we you know on a fundamental level we have not seen a slowdown in the pace of bankruptcy announcements Julia and as long as we continue to see stress mount as long as we got news that another subprime lender um was was going to be downgraded by one of the major credit rating agencies because it's delinquencies on automobile loans uh were so high. I think CarMax today announced that it was going to be laying um several hundred of its employees off. Um as long as we continue to see cracks in credit and underlying creditors, borrowers, then we're going to continue to see ripple effects into the public and private uh credit markets. H I'm gonna have to do I think I'm gonna have to do like um a bankruptcy episode coming up just to like what's going on. >> It took uh it's funny you mentioned that because I I follow very closely the monthly tabulation released by Standard Empors uh of bankruptcies in the United States. And it's it's curious you mentioned this because every month it's released on the 8th or the 9th of the month. So, November the 8th, November the 9th, you would theoretically have October. They waited until October 15th to release their monthly tally of US bankruptcies, which was the highest in the post pandemic era in one month, 76. Um, and I think that they waited as long as they did because they really wanted to check and double check and triple check to make sure that what they're reporting is is reality. And and you know that that happened to accompany all kinds of blowups in the month of September as well. But the but the bankruptcies continue to get reported. The bankruptcies continue to be filed. >> Yeah. And it also makes you wonder too like there are probably many others that are having similar problems. >> Oh, absolutely. >> Yeah. >> Especially when interest rates stop falling on a dime because again it's people forget that there's a lag effect of monetary policy. It's a fact of life. So for a lot of corporate borrowers at least who don't have access to the absolute lowest interest rates or the tightest spreads um over US Treasury rates they cannot refinance their debts. >> Okay. If you were in the presser today uh among all those journalists and I know you have a journalist background Danielle what would you ask Fed chair pal. What would be your question for him? >> [sighs] >> So, actually, one of the reporters did ask Powell whether or not he was paying attention to the layoffs. Um, but I would have actually asked him a much more pointed question. I would have brought up what he brought up, the sum of states in his most recent speech, um, which he said was a very good alternative indicator because they're basically unemployment roles that you gather up on a state-by-state basis that you can aggregate that are just as as as worthy as what the BLS reports on a on a monthly basis. I I would ask him, you know, how's that data doing? I would ask him, you know, what do you think about the big slowdown in ADP? I would ask him even with the official data through August, you know, if we've had, you know, 60% of US states over the last 12 months have more net job destruction than creation and that that's always been recessionary in official BLS data going back to the 1990 recession. Why aren't you paying attention to data that is staring you in the face? That's what I would ask him. Mhm. Yeah. You're someone you go and look on the state bystate basis, too. Like the it's the warrant >> war notices notices. >> I we had when I was I got to be an adjunct at Carolina for a semester with a group of business journalism students and I had them go get the warrant notices to write up articles on who was doing layoffs in North Carolina. >> Yep. And and that's exactly I I had a summer intern over the summer and I had her do the exact same thing for the state of Texas so that she could gain a greater appreciation for the depth and breadth of layoffs but also understand that there is that there's that very real source and right now I dare say you know the warn notice you know the department of labor at on these individual states they're busy >> they're busier than they've ever been not just because the economy is as weak as it is but be because it's also So you know in so many ways the state departments of labor it's the only place we're getting data >> and it's yeah where you're getting data and also and from what I remember and you're the expert here you would know this the companies of a certain size they have to give you know x number of days notice too. So it's like what's coming down the pike. >> Yeah >> that's right and and we have to remember especially for some of these larger companies that layoffs are not free. Um, you know, Starbucks reported after the close and disappointed because it's trying, you know, it's it's it's struggling with shouldering the cost of closing all of the locations that it's closed. >> They closed my store. Yeah. >> And and and firing all the people that they've fired. You have to pay them severance. Um, you have to get out of leases. You have to look it. None of it's free. And so we will see, you know, the after effects of this. And in addition to that, we will see again, and I think we'll be seeing this in the real-time ADP data that's released now every Tuesday, which is like Christmas for me. It's like, wait, I get a weekly national labor market indicator. That's so exciting. But I think we'll start to see these layoffs filter through. >> Yeah. Between now and the next time we sit down with you, which I don't know if it's going to be minutes or another Fed meeting, I don't know. Is whenever we can get back together. What do you want people to be thinking about in that time? >> Well, Julia, we can talk um in very objective fashion about the seasonality of layoffs all we want that it's unusual to see layoffs in November and December. But um no, if there's one thing I would like people to, and you always give me this opportunity, which I find to be such so graceful. Um, if there's one thing that I would say, it's to be cognizant on your LinkedIn feed, with your next door neighbor, with whomever it may be. Uh, to understand that a lot of American families are suffering right now, even if the Fed doesn't care, but a lot of Americans are suffering right now. And this is the most difficult time of the year to have an extra layer of stress um in your life. So just look, this is the season of giving that we're entering and remember that the best gift you can give is to give of yourself. So just be conscientious, be aware of those around you as we go into this happiest time of the year. >> Yeah, I can't believe we're already in the holiday season or about to be um very shortly. Danielle, I always enjoy our conversations. I wish I could have been there in person, but I am so grateful for you. you've been such a wonderful friend to this show, a wonderful guest. We always love having you on. You're welcome on anytime. Um I would make the trip anytime to sit down with you and I'm I'm so happy that you're our guest for episode 300 because this is quite the milestone for us. Um >> my lucky number. >> Yes. I love it. Um before I let you go, let's let folks know where they can find and support your work. I know whether you're retail or institutional, we have a mix in this audience, too. So let them know where they can find and support your work. Um, it's funny because I have a lot of institutional clients that I'm discovering are sitting on the retail side. Um, in any event, uh, come to dartinobooth.sack.com. We produce the Daily Feather. A lot of people say it's of institutional caliber. Thank you very much. Um, but dartino.sepsack.com. And if you if you do run money or if you're a large RAIA or if you're a family office, uh, please do come to qirearchearch.com and, you know, jump inside that Qi Pro uh, Bloomberg chat. It's a lot of fun. >> Danielle D. Martino Booth, CEO and chief strategist at Qi Research. Thank you so much for being so generous with your time, all of your knowledge, your wisdom, helping us all learn and get better, and for being a friend of this program. Really appreciate you, Danielle. >> And thank you, Julia. Happy Halloween. Likewise.
"Something Else Is Going On" at the Fed – December Rate Cut in Doubt | DiMartino Booth
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There has to be something else going on in my view uh for him to have been so hawkish today given the the huge amount of data that we've seen that the labor market has continued to weaken. And yet he referred back to the August unemployment rate. Look, it's Halloween for heaven's sakes. So we're talking about August? I don't think so. >> Danielle D. Martino Booth, CEO and chief strategist at QI Research, author of the book Fed Up, an insider's take on why the Federal Reserve is bad for America. It is so wonderful to see you today from New York in studio. I wish I could be there, but unfortunately I couldn't make it today. But Danielle, great to see you as always. >> Well, great to see you and know that you're missed. So, um, and that we'll have to do this next time for sure. >> You will not miss the December one. That >> December the 10th. Yeah, that's right. I mean, who is missing after today the December the 10th? >> Absolutely not. >> Okay. Well, I have to say this episode, this is episode 300. So, I'm just thrilled to have you as our guest today on the Super Bowl for you. We have the FOMC day. We got to get your reaction, especially to Fed Chair Powell's comments around the question he got at the presser around a December rate cut. And that is not a foregone conclusion. It is far from it that we'll see a rate cut. I just have to get your big picture reaction to today's FOMC and the presser. >> So, you know, I think that it's it's highly feasible that that Jerome Powell was purposely tonedeaf today. I don't know if he's got a different agenda going on in the background. I don't know if he doesn't have an internet connection at work these last two days. if he hasn't been able to follow the headlines and some of the extraordinary news of layoffs that we've seen, by the way, not of not all of which were related to AI at all. I there has to be something else going on in my view, uh, for him to have been so hawkish today given the the huge amount of data that we've seen that the labor market has continued to weaken. And yet, he referred back to the August unemployment rate. Look, it's Halloween for heaven's sakes, so we're talking about August. I don't think so. >> If you had to speculate, what do you think is going on? >> I I mean, there is uh you know, there is a fox in the hen house. There is what appears now to be a permanent denter. You've got Steven Myron who is uh you know he's I I think he'll probably descent in December and then he'll descent again in January and then he will make his way back to his full paying day job at the White House and I think everybody on that committee will probably be saying and don't let the door hit you in the backside on the way out. Um, so I don't know if the if if if other policy makers at the Fed are being more hawkish in order to uh to tell the current administration, you know, we will not cowttow to you. We actually have power over the bond markets. We can raise interest rates, we can raise mortgage rates, we can do what we want with the statement, with the with the Powell press conference. In fact, I I'll be I don't think I'm going to get any sleep. I hope that Fed officials don't have any overseas speeches in the coming days because we're all going to be listening to all of them to see and glean what we can about what that meeting was like. >> Yeah. How about the other descent um from Kansas City's >> Schmid? Jeffrey Schmid. >> Yeah. And I mean, you know what's again, this whole episode feels kind of orchestrated. Uh Jeffrey Schmid, Kansas City Fed. He's a fairly new uh president. He's got the December vote and then he rotates off a voting rotation for the next three years. Uh you know, he's never been a particularly uh aggressive voice uh among Fed officials. He doesn't he doesn't, you know, try and and hog the limelight. He's not, you know, first out of the gate like Jim Bullard always was when he was a governor to be on CNBC in the morning with the first hit. So, it was interesting to see him of all people uh come out in descent in favor of having not cut rates today in in in light of the fact that there's only been one official data point to have been released, one since the government shut down and that was the consumer price index that came in appreciably cooler than what was expected. So you know my question would be on what basis was the descent made if if the inflation data is being is is demonstrating that price pressures are cooling in addition to craft hind and mandles and countless consumer staples companies countless discretionary goods sellers are saying if it's not part of the top 10% who account for 50% of buying we ain't got no pricing power. So, it's it's a very very interesting backdrop. I will be on tent hooks in a few weeks uh in 3 weeks from today when we see the minutes released to see whether or not Schmid had individuals who were close to he was and possibly dissenting. >> H interesting. That'll be interesting. Yeah. To go through the minutes and parse that. Okay. The markets today >> interesting because we had like the S&P hit 6,900 today. Then the markets pulled back when Pal was speaking during the presser around the comments I take it around that it's far from a foregone conclusion that we'll see a rate cut in December. Um so I guess maybe I'll ask a few questions here. What do you think the Fed should do? Are they on the right path that they should continue to do cuts or >> Well, I mean, unless we, you know, missed the headline, Julia, that the Fed no longer has a labor mandate, then the answer's unequivocally yes. And I think that that was what what stoked so much confusion today in the markets. Again, it's because these are not, you know, UPS yesterday is like, oh, sorry. you know, layoffs were actually 70% higher than what we had origin originally announced. So they they now amount to 48,000. And by the way, we're going to save another couple billion dollars in the current quarter. So, you know, there might be another 12,000 people fired from UPS just based on the cost cost savings that they announced um with their earnings. General Motors came out after the close. There's 2,900 uh being laid off indefinitely. Look, the laundry list is right. Meta laying off 600 in AI, Paramount, um Amazon, they they had 14,000 in one fell swoop of the 30,000 that they plan to um to fire out of their ranks. Julia, none of this makes sense. None of it makes sense. Again, unless there's an agenda, and I am not a conspiracy theorist, but policy makers are being willfully blind in order to, you know, stick it to the administration. It's kind of obvious. Or they're just completely insensitive to what's happening with working men and women across the country. In which case, again, did we miss the headline? Has the Fed's labor mandate been eradicated by Congress? and we just didn't pick up on that news. >> I do wonder though, like it makes me kind of lean toward maybe it is sticking it to the administration. Then >> it's there are very few other explanations, especially as the Fed is announcing that it's going to be stopping the roll off of the balance sheet, that it's going to be potentially pumping 35 billion a month of mortgage back securities rolloff proceeds into the Treasury market. You know, normally when markets are beginning to clamor for liquidity, the Fed's going to back that up by being in an easing mode. >> So, you know, this has it's highly contradictory policy that's being made right now. >> Gold keeps setting new all-time highs, but price appreciation isn't the only way to profit from owning gold. Monetary Metals is redefining the future of precious metals investing. Instead of paying to store gold, imagine getting paid to own it. With monetary medals, you can earn up to 4% on your gold paid [music] in physical gold. That's right. Your ounces grow each month, not just your paper balance. A yield on gold paid in gold means you're stacking more ounces every [music] single month. And you still benefit if gold's prices rise. You're earning more gold every month and enjoying potential price appreciation [music] at the same time. Go to monetary-medals.com/dullia to learn more [music] and see how you can start earning 4% on your gold paid in gold. Um, it makes me wonder too with the data, the data, the lack of data. I know we've gotten a little tiny piece, but you know, the lack of data because of the shutdown. Are they just not looking at the data coming out as you mentioned that laundry list of layoffs from major companies, UPS, Amazon, Intel, Meta, Salesforce, there's a ton of them. Do they look at that or they are they going to say okay we have to rely on u because you you and I the last time we spoke they have like the data sets they look at right and it's kind of controversial to bring a new data set I don't really know all the pieces that they're looking at but do they look at individual layoff announcements >> it it's not well they certainly follow aggregated layoff announcements and again that is the aggregated count of layoffs that have been announced this month equate to the second highest level in the aggregate in two years. I I know from personal experience working inside the Fed for nine years. They follow layoff information. They follow ADP figures. In a 2019 speech, Jerome Powell himself said as much. And you know, ADP kind of revolutionized the data world, or at least it rocked mine, that they're now going to be rolling out on a weekly basis every Tuesday. We're going to get a rolling four-week count of what layoffs look like in this country. Fed officials have already said we use ADP and you know as a backup. So now we know that Fed officials are going to have that with greater frequency. >> So the shutdown's not an excuse then. It's why it's kind of like huh >> that that's the whole point. And again one earnings report after another. It's companies saying, you know, if it's not related to data centers and building data centers like Caterpillar today, they were like, we are rocking it because we're selling so much heavy equipment because there are so many data centers being built all around the country. Well, that makes sense. But outside of this AI data center revolution, now that we've got 5,500 of them in the country compared to the next closest country with 500, slight disconnect. Um, but absent the AI revolution, if you will, most other companies are saying that they're struggling with pricing power. And that that speaks to pressure on on inflation. We learned that home price uh home price gains fell to the lowest level since the middle of 2023. in the most recent report. Shelter [snorts] is what was the biggest drag on the one data point that we did get the September CPI report. Um and and these are things that the Fed can again follow in real time because they know what the inputs are for for home prices. So it know the idea that they can hide behind um some some kind of a a guysise and say we're not we're not able to be data dependent because we have no data is just flatout wrong. >> So is the inflation side of the mandate or that equation that's no longer the issue really then it's do you think that's pretty much been solved? companies have been rolling with these tariffs and able to absorb them at least in and that's actually not even a big surprise uh because companies have had the the strongest profit margins in the history of mankind these last few years. They had a little bit of cushion. Um, but you can tell the cushion's running out though when they start announcing layoffs. >> So, um, again, you know, somebody made the comment, you know, there there was a there was a story flying around on what used to be called Twitter about Amazon's quiet plans to to replace 600,000 employees in coming years with robots. And, you know, a lot of people were like, "Cool. They're not a charity. They're not a not for-profit company. They've got shareholders. And you know, the retort there was who's going to buy if you really start to to cut to such depths? And that's the thing when you have layoffs start aggregating as they have. We're at 140,000 with a few days left in the month of of October. You start talking about individuals who are not just not being hired, which we hear about every single day, but also on top of that, people who are losing their jobs. Julie, I'll give you one data set that the Fed had going into this meeting. >> Mhm. >> Every every month the US economy has created about 4 and a half million jobs on uh in terms of job creation. When you net that against job destruction and individuals who've been giving up on looking for work, this is official data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through the month of August. The only data that we have, we know that in the last 12 months, that half of them have seen net job destruction. It's a very simple construct. The economy is destroying more jobs than it's created in six of the last 12 months. Well, guess what? If you look back at the three recessions that preceded the quick COVID recession that was kind of a mad man phenomena, by the time we got to that level, the economy is already in recession. Now, that's official data that the Fed can chew on if they'd like. >> Hence, we are already in recession then. >> Oh my gosh. I look Don't you the beauty of my world is you don't have to ask me anymore. Mhm. >> I've got other people who are raising their hands to talk about it. >> Yeah. I just had Dr. Gary Schilling on and we were talking about this exact topic and he said 60% probability that we're already in a recession, but I think he's waiting for more data um to show that. But yeah, it's definitely coming up more. Um you know, it's also interesting on layoffs. It seems to me that when you see like the first big name kind of come out and announce then suddenly like other companies there's like a parade of them because it's like oh you can kind of put out that bad unpleasant news and you're among a crowd. Do you think I don't know if there's anything to that but it kind of sometimes feels that way with layoffs. So, you know, it's it's interesting you asked that question, Julia, because in a lot of the CEO confidence reports that we're provided on a quarterly basis, a lot of CEOs feel intimidated by the potential for AI to make them less competitive and they've also been concerned about uh the ability to finance capital expenditures going forward. But the combination of these two is is what is causing corporate America at large to say, you know what, the one thing that we can control for in the biggest line item in terms of our expenses is labor costs. And so they are pushing forward. And to your question about why now, look, the US government's been shut down for nearly a month. Um, there's all kinds of great trade negotiations going on all over the world. It's kind of like the the peace in the Middle East that we saw that lasted for all of two weeks. So, everybody loves a distracting headline or two. Nvidia's going to the moon thanks to passive flows. >> Yeah. 5 trillion. >> You know, um, in an environment like this, if I'm Joe Q CEO or Jen Q CFO, let the headline fly. There's so much else going on. And you do it right before the holiday season because you're not in Thanksgiving Christmas yet. That's when you probably look like a really bad guy if you do it around that time. But >> yeah, actually um since you brought that up, uh the people oft macro edge who were who who do a very good job of a real time layoff tally. uh they were saying that even though this October is much greater than any October um in in in their data series history that the real tell would be if layoffs continue into November. >> Why would that be the real tell? Is that just because it's a little bit more >> just because of what you said >> more unusual as you get closer to the holidays gets even harder. >> Who's going to fire people into Thanksgiving? >> Yeah. >> Um so that will be it'll be very very interesting. October is usually a month when we see a little bit of a lift in layoffs because a lot of companies these last few years they don't want to be they don't want to take the headlines, right? UPS was like we found out about it in an earnings report after the fact. >> Um so earnings season is always a time when companies reveal that layoffs have have happened post facto. Uh but if this continues into November and so many companies are saying we saw a hard stop in economic activity in the month of September. If that's the case then we will plow right into the holidays with layoffs. So, it'll be interesting to see on a seasonal given seasonal trends in in prior years what we see in just a few days as we go into November with all kinds of worst case scenarios like no food stamp money being paid and government employees missing their second paycheck. This episode is brought to you by Vanex Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF, ticker symbol REMX. [music] Rare earths are the hidden backbone of modern technology and defense, powering everything from smartphones and electric vehicles to fighter jets and wind turbines. Van recognized this early, launching the rare earth and strategic metals ETF, ticker symbol REMX, 15 years ago, well before supply chain security became a global priority. Today, China dominates the production and refining capacity of rare earths, creating real challenges for global supply chain security as these materials are essential for technological innovation, clean energy, and national security. 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Because the markets, every time they do a cut, it seems like they cheerlead it cuz markets pulled back today based on that rhetoric from Pal that it's not necessarily going to happen in December. And we have markets that have been at all-time highs. So I guess that my question it kind of feels like they're two economies right now. And do the cuts do they actually help the regular people or they just kind of help the markets just rip again? >> Well, they certainly do that on on the on the market side. So they can they continue to have the top 10% who account for 50% of spending. they continue to to skew that balance more in in their favor. Uh but by the same token, you know, the one that I because like for example, automobile loan borrowing rates have gone up. >> Mhm. >> In recent weeks, credit card lenders are clamping down. They're starting to cut credit lines um as they're seeing delinquencies pass through. But the one example that I always fall back on, the one example I always fall back on is the small business owner. And it's the small business owner who is not enjoying record tight spreads in the corporate bond market. The small business owner is not able to access credit. And in fact, the National Federation of Independent Business that the data that we see on a monthly basis conveys as much that they are not able to access credit at least at at a reasonable cost. And you know, I'm color me old-fashioned, but I'd like the idea of entrepreneurship and small and medium-sized businesses being able to access financing to hire people to grow. And that's what Fed cuts can help. >> That's important to understand, too. And like small businesses,memes, they are the backbone of the American economy, too. I was just more of a clarification because I wasn't I was kind of like I guess I wasn't quite sure because I'm >> you know I guess I look at the markets too much that >> borrowing costs for especially at times like these when when credit standards are tightening Vantage score reported just a few days ago that they're seeing um mortgage delinquencies rise at a faster pace on a relative basis compared to credit card and auto delinquencies. And Vantage Score also said that they're seeing a creep up in delinquencies among prime borrowers in these kinds of environments. If you it doesn't matter who you are. If you don't have absolutely pristine credit, banks are increasing the interest rate levels at which people are borrowing regardless of what the Fed is doing with monetary policy. and they will continue to do so until they stop losing money on bad loans. >> Mhm. Um, another area I'm curious about is the housing sector especially, um, when I think of like interest rates and lowering rates like how do you think maybe one let's start with like your assessment of housing today and how how do you think this might play? I mean, you know, look, I mean, we we get very little kind of official data, but we did see that pending home sales um instead of rising 1.2% month overmonth came in flat as a pancake in the month of September. And we're hearing uh from Red Fin, from realtor.com that even with the decline in mortgage rates to a recent 2-year low, that that hasn't been sufficient to pull buyers off the sidelines because home prices remain so prohibitively high. And of course, with the move that we saw in the bond market today, tomorrow's headlines will tell us that mortgage rates have gone up because they actually decline in anticipation of Fed rate cuts. And then it's kind of a buy the rumor, sell the fat kind of phenomenon to where uh especially if there's moves in the bond market like what we saw today, you're actually going to see the next mortgage prints go up. So, um, and again, we're in the middle of a buyer strike ac across a lot of American, uh, metro areas and home prices are they are falling. But despite mortgage rates, it's clear that they're not falling enough. And you fill that blank in with the labor market, especially when you've got food price inflation going haywire and the cost of electricity going haywire because of data centers. you know, at some point, Julie, you're going to have people bunking up. >> Yeah. Um I'm I'm asking this, too, because as someone who like would like to buy a house, I'm I'm almost just waiting at this point that I'm just not going to do anything at this point because >> Yeah. >> Well, remember, if there's one thing that trumps mortgage rates, it is the unemployment rate. Mhm. >> And everything that we see, whether it's University of Michigan, you know, fears of a rising unemployment rate that popped up to 65 65% of Americans in the second half of October, um, feared that the unemployment rate was going to be rising. That matched the post cycle high that we saw just a few months ago. So that's, you know, twothirds of Americans saying we anticipate the unemployment rate is going to rise. uh historically speaking and the University of Michigan is a very long data set that means that you know to Dr. Schilling's point we are in a recession. >> Yeah. Yeah. Certainly. And I I feel like too like people Yeah. is like you said before if you have a job keep the job because it's been hard to get a job. But also when you see the headlines like that everyone's probably going to know someone who's been impacted. At least you see it like I see it on I go on LinkedIn and I'm like I see people saying that they got let go or they're offering to like help someone else who's gotten let go. So you definitely see it almost more amplified. >> Imagine how the average American right now feels if they're a recent college graduate. If there's a middle manager, white collar worker who's recently lost their job. Imagine how they would feel if they were to be able to read from the transcript from Powell's press conference today that the US economy does not need to create as many jobs because there's been so much out migration because of the administration's policy. I venture to say that they would be like wait I'm still here. I'm still here in the United States of America and I am unemployed and I count >> because of the immigration crackdown. That's the other dynamic. Okay. explain like why folks have that wrong. That is another argument that has come up is that hey maybe we don't need to create as many jobs because we don't have as many people coming into the country. Counter that >> you know Julia that's absolutely true compared to the last several years. Um but I think if I I think if demand was sufficient absent the workers who have left this country that we wouldn't have all of these sidelined workers. We wouldn't have nine out of every 10 homebuilders in the state of Texas which is a state filled with immigrants both illegal and legal. Why on earth would nine out of 10 US Texas-based homebuilders be laying off employees? It it just makes no sense. If they had a huge um release on the supply side because they lost all of these illegal workers and they returned to their countries, why are they still laying off the ones who remain unless it's a demand story and not a supply story? And I think that that's what people are missing. Mhm. And you are someone who is known for kind of you're like a bit of a detective. I feel like you're the one who kind of uncovers these hidden narratives too. Um I got to ask you this cuz the last time we spoke you brought up something that was so fascinating which was what what has been happening in private credit. Um it was the first brand story that was like what was blowing up on the Bloomberg chat. You run a very popular Bloomberg chat. Um what is what's the conversation these days like what because that was so fascinating. What are y'all talking about these days? >> Um so we are still talking about private credit. >> Let's talk about it. Yeah. >> I mean there were three blowups in Europe uh in the last 24 hours. I mean that's not necessarily related to what's happening here in the United States but some of the biggest names uh who play in that private credit space were also names in Europe. I mean they do make investments provide credit in other places but we you know on a fundamental level we have not seen a slowdown in the pace of bankruptcy announcements Julia and as long as we continue to see stress mount as long as we got news that another subprime lender um was was going to be downgraded by one of the major credit rating agencies because it's delinquencies on automobile loans uh were so high. I think CarMax today announced that it was going to be laying um several hundred of its employees off. Um as long as we continue to see cracks in credit and underlying creditors, borrowers, then we're going to continue to see ripple effects into the public and private uh credit markets. H I'm gonna have to do I think I'm gonna have to do like um a bankruptcy episode coming up just to like what's going on. >> It took uh it's funny you mentioned that because I I follow very closely the monthly tabulation released by Standard Empors uh of bankruptcies in the United States. And it's it's curious you mentioned this because every month it's released on the 8th or the 9th of the month. So, November the 8th, November the 9th, you would theoretically have October. They waited until October 15th to release their monthly tally of US bankruptcies, which was the highest in the post pandemic era in one month, 76. Um, and I think that they waited as long as they did because they really wanted to check and double check and triple check to make sure that what they're reporting is is reality. And and you know that that happened to accompany all kinds of blowups in the month of September as well. But the but the bankruptcies continue to get reported. The bankruptcies continue to be filed. >> Yeah. And it also makes you wonder too like there are probably many others that are having similar problems. >> Oh, absolutely. >> Yeah. >> Especially when interest rates stop falling on a dime because again it's people forget that there's a lag effect of monetary policy. It's a fact of life. So for a lot of corporate borrowers at least who don't have access to the absolute lowest interest rates or the tightest spreads um over US Treasury rates they cannot refinance their debts. >> Okay. If you were in the presser today uh among all those journalists and I know you have a journalist background Danielle what would you ask Fed chair pal. What would be your question for him? >> [sighs] >> So, actually, one of the reporters did ask Powell whether or not he was paying attention to the layoffs. Um, but I would have actually asked him a much more pointed question. I would have brought up what he brought up, the sum of states in his most recent speech, um, which he said was a very good alternative indicator because they're basically unemployment roles that you gather up on a state-by-state basis that you can aggregate that are just as as as worthy as what the BLS reports on a on a monthly basis. I I would ask him, you know, how's that data doing? I would ask him, you know, what do you think about the big slowdown in ADP? I would ask him even with the official data through August, you know, if we've had, you know, 60% of US states over the last 12 months have more net job destruction than creation and that that's always been recessionary in official BLS data going back to the 1990 recession. Why aren't you paying attention to data that is staring you in the face? That's what I would ask him. Mhm. Yeah. You're someone you go and look on the state bystate basis, too. Like the it's the warrant >> war notices notices. >> I we had when I was I got to be an adjunct at Carolina for a semester with a group of business journalism students and I had them go get the warrant notices to write up articles on who was doing layoffs in North Carolina. >> Yep. And and that's exactly I I had a summer intern over the summer and I had her do the exact same thing for the state of Texas so that she could gain a greater appreciation for the depth and breadth of layoffs but also understand that there is that there's that very real source and right now I dare say you know the warn notice you know the department of labor at on these individual states they're busy >> they're busier than they've ever been not just because the economy is as weak as it is but be because it's also So you know in so many ways the state departments of labor it's the only place we're getting data >> and it's yeah where you're getting data and also and from what I remember and you're the expert here you would know this the companies of a certain size they have to give you know x number of days notice too. So it's like what's coming down the pike. >> Yeah >> that's right and and we have to remember especially for some of these larger companies that layoffs are not free. Um, you know, Starbucks reported after the close and disappointed because it's trying, you know, it's it's it's struggling with shouldering the cost of closing all of the locations that it's closed. >> They closed my store. Yeah. >> And and and firing all the people that they've fired. You have to pay them severance. Um, you have to get out of leases. You have to look it. None of it's free. And so we will see, you know, the after effects of this. And in addition to that, we will see again, and I think we'll be seeing this in the real-time ADP data that's released now every Tuesday, which is like Christmas for me. It's like, wait, I get a weekly national labor market indicator. That's so exciting. But I think we'll start to see these layoffs filter through. >> Yeah. Between now and the next time we sit down with you, which I don't know if it's going to be minutes or another Fed meeting, I don't know. Is whenever we can get back together. What do you want people to be thinking about in that time? >> Well, Julia, we can talk um in very objective fashion about the seasonality of layoffs all we want that it's unusual to see layoffs in November and December. But um no, if there's one thing I would like people to, and you always give me this opportunity, which I find to be such so graceful. Um, if there's one thing that I would say, it's to be cognizant on your LinkedIn feed, with your next door neighbor, with whomever it may be. Uh, to understand that a lot of American families are suffering right now, even if the Fed doesn't care, but a lot of Americans are suffering right now. And this is the most difficult time of the year to have an extra layer of stress um in your life. So just look, this is the season of giving that we're entering and remember that the best gift you can give is to give of yourself. So just be conscientious, be aware of those around you as we go into this happiest time of the year. >> Yeah, I can't believe we're already in the holiday season or about to be um very shortly. Danielle, I always enjoy our conversations. I wish I could have been there in person, but I am so grateful for you. you've been such a wonderful friend to this show, a wonderful guest. We always love having you on. You're welcome on anytime. Um I would make the trip anytime to sit down with you and I'm I'm so happy that you're our guest for episode 300 because this is quite the milestone for us. Um >> my lucky number. >> Yes. I love it. Um before I let you go, let's let folks know where they can find and support your work. I know whether you're retail or institutional, we have a mix in this audience, too. So let them know where they can find and support your work. Um, it's funny because I have a lot of institutional clients that I'm discovering are sitting on the retail side. Um, in any event, uh, come to dartinobooth.sack.com. We produce the Daily Feather. A lot of people say it's of institutional caliber. Thank you very much. Um, but dartino.sepsack.com. And if you if you do run money or if you're a large RAIA or if you're a family office, uh, please do come to qirearchearch.com and, you know, jump inside that Qi Pro uh, Bloomberg chat. It's a lot of fun. >> Danielle D. Martino Booth, CEO and chief strategist at Qi Research. Thank you so much for being so generous with your time, all of your knowledge, your wisdom, helping us all learn and get better, and for being a friend of this program. Really appreciate you, Danielle. >> And thank you, Julia. Happy Halloween. Likewise.