GOLD: Word of Caution – Melt Up Before The Crash | Mark Newton
Summary
Market Outlook: U.S. equities are in a tech-led melt-up with deteriorating breadth, as many sectors lag while indices hit new highs.
AI: The guest believes we are in a multi-year secular AI boom, with strong CEO spend and productivity gains supporting continued growth.
Semiconductors: Semis are viewed as overbought and due for consolidation despite long-term AI tailwinds, with rotation from other sectors needed to sustain the rally.
Precious Metals: He advises trimming gold and silver, seeing a near-term leg down, a potential year-end bounce, and 2026 weakness if yields rise.
US Dollar: Expect a near-term bounce and eventual move higher, with a final dip potentially aiding commodities and EM before the dollar trend strengthens.
Real Estate Risk: Housing affordability is strained as mortgage rates have doubled and home prices surged, making the sector vulnerable even as rate cuts help borrowing costs.
Key Tickers: Nvidia (NVDA) is highlighted as a primary market leader, and the guest promotes Fundstrat’s new ETF, Granny Shots U.S. Large Cap Alpha (GRNY), as a systematic large-cap growth strategy.
Strategy: Emphasis on momentum, sentiment, and breadth; avoid trying to buy big dips and instead buy highs and sell higher using technical signals.
Transcript
Are we in the middle of an equity meltup in the US markets? The S&P 500 has been hitting all-time high after all-time high. Nvidia just broke through the $5 trillion mark. Microsoft is hot on its heels as well, over $4 trillion in market cap, and we're looking at seasonality here today as well. I've invited a fantastic guest to sort of help us understand what is happening in the markets, what is momentum like. Uh he's a technical strategist. His name is Mark Newton. really looking forward to catching up with him and really hope he can make sense for it. He can make sense for it or he can make sense of it all for us because there are a lot of macro news hitting us this week uh as we speak or in about 5 hours time as we're recording this. Uh the Fed will release its announcement on a potential cut 99.9% so we can assume that's a 25 basis point cut. But we also have the APEC meeting. We have earnings hitting us as well this week. So, a lot's going on and I'm really looking forward to that conversation. But before I switch over to my guest, hit that like and subscribe button. Helps us out tremendously and we much much appreciate. Thanks so much for doing that. Now, Mark, it is a great pleasure to have you on the program. Thanks so much for joining us. >> Thank you, Kai. Nice to be here. >> Mark, it's your first time on the program. Let's see where your head is at right now a little bit. Um, maybe give us your assessment of the economy and the financial markets from your standpoint. Well, honestly, the markets have, you know, to to your point have escalated pretty dramatically higher. A lot of that has been led by technology in recent months. Uh if you look at the market, you know, in general, uh many of the sectors have not really participated. So, we're in an interesting uh time in the economy and in the markets where uh other sectors are starting to diverge and are not really participating as much as as what tech is. Uh, [snorts] of course we had the earnings five of the Mag 7 this week. So, Nvidia today crossing $210. It's going to hit its five trillion mark. Uh, remarkable. And yes, that does represent, you know, 8% of the market. So, you know, the markets have been, you know, on a tear. We're up 17% now on the S&P and the last two years we've been up over 20%. uh many I think would have argued coming into this year that markets uh might experience some some turbulence or be flat but as we know earnings have been in very good shape and the economy I think has held up uh much better than anticipated. So, you know, despite some evidence of weakness on the fringe with regards to the labor market, uh the overall economy and and and earnings have held up and it really continues to be important to pay attention to those, you know, versus trying to use geopolitics or or even the political arena to try to make decisions regarding risk assets. >> Yeah. No, it's a definitely interesting time when it comes comes to that um earnings in good shape. Uh and and it's quite bifurcated. what what sectors are leading right now? You you touched on tech. Uh interesting statistic. Uh 398 of the 500 companies in the S&P 500 were negative yesterday despite a positive uh you know a green day in the S&P 500 yesterday. What do you make of that? What should we be focusing on? >> Well, it is important and it can be a negative if it persists. So you you you definitely want to see all sectors starting to rise uh in in unison and when it's only led by tech. Yesterday was one of the bre worst breath days we've seen uh in years. Uh today does not look to be any different. We have Nvidia of course leading the charge but yet market breath is down. Uh the majority of sectors are are not higher, they're lower. And just over the last month, we've seen actually five sectors out of the 11 uh have been negative over the last month, which is is remarkable when you think that the market has just been continuing to push higher. So, um you know, look, at some point it is important to start to see groups like financials really lead the charge. uh to your earlier question uh you know it's really been technology and almost exclusively over the last three months but we have seen utilities and healthcare um and to some extent you know other areas you know have tried to make some headway but but really in the last month it's been um you know financials, real estate, communications, services and energy have all been down and and so uh you know industrials have been largely flat. It is necessary, you know, for those of us that study market structure. You look at Dow theory, you want to see, you know, the transportation index along with the Dow Jones Industrial Average as well as the equated S&P and the S&P and the NASDAQ all moving higher. And right now, there's begun to be a little bit of a divergence. Uh that's not problematic until tech really starts to stall out and roll over and that hasn't happened yet. So, uh yes, tech does have the power to carry this market at a time when other sectors aren't participating. Uh the key is the sentiment and the sentiment right now is still largely mixed. We don't have uh a lot of speculation uh for a lot of understandable reasons but but until that changes the market can go up really with no rhyme or reason and uh you know does not have to simply uh fall because investors are bearish about tariffs or uh course of action for the Fed or or inflation or anything else. >> No, I appreciate that Mark. Um before maybe to set up my next question like you're a technical strategist I think we need to explain that term just a little bit. What do you actually do Mark? >> Yeah well yeah look I mean technical analysis is a study of price action. So I I look at uh you know volume uh you know charts to make decisions looking at seasonality uh sentiment market breath momentum. I I always try to identify you know stocks that are breaking out to new all-time high territory. Momentum has been the number one factor over the last 20 years. [snorts] Uh so here at Fundstrat I write an investment report every day and I do videos and so I I cover technical analysis. I basically guide investors retail as well as institutional to try to understand you know what sectors are starting to improve and really what the best stocks are that they might uh be concentrating on. But I also have a little bit of a macro bent. I do look at interest rates. I look at the dollar. I look at cryptocurrencies and metals and um you know there has been some correlation of course across some of these groups. And so uh you know very important to understand uh all of it but but really looking at what's moving and what has the potential to move versus taking you know a fundamental or you know listening to the the Fed you know you know talk about what they expect. It's very difficult to make money. Um many many times you know price has already baked in you know all a lot of what's being said and so uh you know technicals allow you to sort of take the blindfold off and see uh you know price action of things that it can start to lead and we always hope that in the long run you know mirrors fundamentals but but sometimes there's that diver that's that divergence and and really that's where I I step in. >> Yeah. No Mark um maybe a bit of a cheeky question. And you have Bloomberg running behind you um on on the TV and uh that is a lot of noise. Of course, mainstream media, you know, building their own narrative around what is going on. How do you manage to to to sort of blend that out and not maybe pay attention what Jonathan Pharaoh and Lisa Brahma would say in the morning? >> Well, I I appreciate their insight. Sometimes uh you know, having another set of eyes on what's moving can help you to uh understand different things that are happening across the economy and across different markets. But but I you know first and foremost you know looking at markets 247 I always want to just be on top of uh what trends are are are showing us for not only you know US stock indices but across the dollar and interest rates and everything and so you basically go from there and you really want to just concentrate on on what sectors are leading or starting to lag and look at market breath and momentum and uh you know I think it still remains an underutilized talent. Many American-based portfolio managers have always been taught the prudent man rule. You you manage money based on, you know, having a duty to your constituents to manage based on fundamental analysis and and finding uh you know, intrinsic value for the companies you're investing in. But but having a technical uh you know, screen is really more important than ever these days and really either for risk management purposes or really for the purposes of adding alpha to your portfolio management process. And so I I try my best to, you know, obviously give my insight to all of our institutional and retail clients and and really talk about the day-to-day uh movement of of what's what's happening and and how people can use that to make money. >> Fantastic. Yeah. No, um you mentioned seasonality a couple times uh already in this conversation. Uh it's the end of October with two months left. Um in terms of seasonality, where should we be at? We're in the middle of a meltup right now, but uh how sustainable is that meltup given maybe seasonal context here? >> Yeah, it's a great question. Look, this this post-election year has proven to be, I think, a little bit different than than maybe most u you know, it is showing very good performance, but the performance has far exceeded uh expectations. We did not see any real draw down in August, September or October uh with just a few days left. And now I think a lot of people are using this resilience as a chance to get bullish and think it's going to be all you know guns ahead uh guns ablazing and just to sort of pedal to the metal until year end. I think a lot of people CTAs and and just professional money managers have not been as uh actively exposed to risk assets and so this this sort of need to play catch-up um is is very real. Uh I think the problem is when you start to see breadth start to tail off like we have seen in the last few months and and fewer and fewer sectors participating uh you know as technology gets stretched you do set yourself up for the possibility of of a at least some consolidation in the indices and so I I see that likely happening from uh you know right near 6950 in the S&P and we're we're very close to there now. uh that likely takes us down into probably the middle part of November into November expiration before we can continue to push higher. Um so, you know, honestly, the the the best part of any given year in stocks is almost always to buy into dips in October and hold into the late spring. And so you have that typical October till late April uh window which over the last hundred years has allowed investors to earn at least three times as as much as if you invest really from from May uh through October. But this year has proven to be uh far different. we had the early year decline on on territories uh you know bottoming at the exact moment they were announced of course and then uh fear rose to levels we really haven't seen since the prior bare markets and so that that certainly is uh you know is very interesting but you know to get back to your question you know if you have you know nor in any normal year you normally want to be investing money uh and buying dips into the fall period and looking to sell into the spring uh being out of the market really moment momentum starts to turn down in the summertime because the fall period is usually quite treacherous but but this is this year is anything but but normal as we all know >> it it isn't that's for sure but I think that the trend is clear though it it seems quite positive at least what I'm hearing or seeing out of the US Europe is a whole different story seems to be complete mess that's where I'm based I'm not very hopeful of what is going on um I'm just looking here at the CNN fear and creed index and what what is really interesting is the market momentum versus the stock price strength. Mark momentum, we're seeing extreme greed, a lot of money, a lot of momentum as you said earlier, but on the stock price strength, we're looking at fear. Um, meaning it's quite divergent. Maybe you can elaborate on that a little bit because I think you touched on that already in your in your previous answer, but it is quite interesting because um what what they're mentioning is that a few stocks um skew sort of skew the returns for the rest, right? Meaning that's where the fear is coming from. >> Well, I think look, that's that's where the earnings are also. So we look at the mag 7 and big cap technology. Those are the companies that are changing all our lives for the better and and and it's it's important for those stocks to be uh you know making good money as well as as helping to carry the market higher. Uh this is no different than than any decade going back over the last hundred years. I mean back in the 1930s4s we had uh of course the generals General Electric, General Motors, Exxon, DuPont those were all really heavy waitings within uh you know equity markets and so that that did not necessarily u necessitate you know being called a bubble just because they were heavily weighted and and so every decade has its share of of really what's leading and what's not and and most recently of course we have our Apple and Nvidia and uh Microsoft and Alphabet and and so those certainly have been the ones that have been carrying us. [snorts] Uh to your earlier point though, we only have about 50% of all stocks right now that are above their 50-day moving average. And so that is a little bit of a concern because uh you know, in the last few months, uh we have far fewer stocks pushing higher than than normal. Um, so you know, as to what you do with that information, that doesn't mean you run out and and go to cash, but it does mean you have to keep a very careful eye on on trends and and really uh watch sentiment closely and and the cycles in my view are still very positive for, you know, this year. Even if we do have a little bit of a consolidation in November, I still expect to end the the year on a positive note. But next year, heading into a midterm election year, uh to your point on seasonality, it can be a little bit different and we might get some consolidation next year. >> Yeah. Um what you've been saying is it reminded me a lot of 1999 and should we party like it's 1999? Do we have maybe two more two more years before a breakdown? Um can you put some historical context around what is happening right now? Is it even comparable? >> I would say it is not comparable. It's almost been fashionable to to try to call everything we're seeing now a bubble, particularly those that have not participated in it maybe to the extent they would wanted. Uh we're in a bubble about talking about bubbles and and that's the problem I think in this day and age. uh while pees might seem overvalued, you know, we're trying to put a value on, you know, an area of the market that really none of us have ever experienced before and that that it, you know, we continue to hear the degree of uh AI spend being just uh through the roof and and overwhelming demand and and most CEOs on every conference call continue to extol the the virtues of just uh you know, the fact that the businesses are growing faster than ever. And so I I I think that you know pees in the high 20s or if you consider you know parts of mag 7 maybe in the low 30s are certainly nowhere near what we saw in 1999 when we had the stocks like the seable systems or exodus communications or or so on and so forth and some of these were trading at 150 200 >> [snorts] >> uh 300 pees and the use case in this society utilization is far greater than what we've seen in some time these companies are actually you know minting money and and and are doing a lot of good uh for society and and making all of us I think more productive by use of AI. So, you know, there's a big deflationary in impact from that and as prices start to come down because uh you know, the average consumer is getting much more productive and and uh you know, that helps to offset I think those inflationary worries uh when you mention when people talk about tariffs or whatnot and [snorts] we have a plummeting price of crude oil and and you know the AI effect on being deflationary uh you know that puts us in a sweet spot where the Fed can't afford to cut rates and and not really have to worry in my view. >> Yeah. Cutting rates into in in a positive economic environment like how do you put that into the same sentence and make it make sense actually like um you you gave us a a hint here hint just now. But like is that even the right move? Uh if we were to talk about that, >> I think it is the right move because I I think that mortgage rates have grown, you know, they basically doubled in the last few years for those in in the US. uh you know many people uh with homes had mortgages locked in at the 3% for some time know that now that's grown to 6 and a half 7% [snorts] and since co you know many of the house prices have grown by over 50% and so you know honestly that's an area of the market where I think we could be vulnerable uh over the next couple years is the housing market they've simply become too unaffordable and you know the the the cost for owning a mortgage on on properties although historically may lower on the lower end of things is still, you know, quite a bit higher than what we've seen in in recent days. So, difficult for a young college grad coming out of school and unemployment is higher for college grads now to to think that you're going to go out and and uh and buy a home with with very high mortgages. So the act of cutting rates although that is you know that affects the short end of the the curve obviously uh it does have the effect of uh you know bringing down you know the cost of borrowing I think which is going to be essential at a time when uh companies have largely uh stopped hiring as aggressively. So we're not really laying off people but but it's not as if the the economy is going gang busters. there are certain pockets that remain problematic and I think uh if you can bring interest rates down um at a time when inflation doesn't soar then I think that is the right call. >> Um one topic we've touched on a couple of times here on this program on sore financially is the subprime auto loans and uh do do lower interest rates help that sector as well? It's a $ 1.7 trillion sector that seems to be in crisis after that um bankruptcy or insolveny here. Um are you looking at that skeptically? Is that where a potential market breakdown could be coming from? >> You know, I'm not a credit specialist by trade, but I I do look at a few measures for just looking at the option adjusted spread and looking at just the the the ratios between investment grade credit to junk and and and when that starts to widen out dramatically, that can be an issue. uh there there might be defaults or or problems in some parts of the economy but I don't see that being a a systemic issue that really uh should metastasize I guess uh across the economy at this time. Credit does not seem to be uh in crisis mode. We we have had you know a few of the regional banks of course with their own uh issues but but you know we just had six major banks come out and report earnings in the last three weeks and and none of them spoke about you know credit as being a real really big issue for them. So I I would have to say that you know there there many that wish to sort of fit their own narrative by looking at the what's negative and and and I understand that but I don't think it's an issue right now for the for [snorts] the broader economy just yet. >> Perfect. Um, what I'm trying to do here is is fish maybe a little bit for some breakdown signals, things that you're looking at as well, Mark. Um, that could show us a shift in momentum perhaps and that market breath as as you mentioned is probably one of those breakdown indicators. Um, curious like what what else are you looking at? >> Yeah, when I look at markets say for over the last 100 years, I mean almost all markets peak out when you have just fewer and fewer stocks hitting new all-time high territory and start to decline. uh and we have seen a little bit of that since July, but it hasn't been as pronounced as what we saw in 2021, nor in the late 90s and 1999. We saw fewer and fewer stocks carrying the the load and and stocks in general started to to be lower. So, bull markets don't peak when all stocks reach their high and pull back. It's largely just uh that that process usually starts about 3 to six months ahead of a peak when fewer and fewer stocks hit new highs and and uh the markets just uh you know it's it's a bit thin or so uh at the top. So I I don't sense that we're uh at that level yet to be really concerned, but I I do suspect that if the market were not able to rally uh through year end and see really small caps participate after their recent breakout or see financial snap back to life or industrials which you know these are a couple groups that have been lagging of late um you know that that could be a problem heading into next year. So, I also look at sentiment. Uh, most of the bull market peaks that I've seen in the past, they all have very exuberant levels of sentiment where there's a lot of speculation, and we just haven't had that this year. To think that the market is just all of a sudden going to roll over and go into an extended downturn when everybody's negative, uh, you know, doesn't make a lot of sense. Normally, on the first sign of weakness, people tend to get very fearful and that honestly puts in a floor from a contrarian perspective as to when you want to buy stocks. So the combination of uh you know sentiment and and momentum and breadth are are certainly important but uh you know you have to look at market cycles and we're in one right now that suggests that this year uh should be a phenomenal year. Uh next year you know could allow for some consolidation and we could speak about that in the future but u you know my my indicators as long as tech is moving up are still quite quite bullish. Uh but I I do acknowledge that that you know tech has gotten a bit over its skis in some of the parts of technology data storage the seagates and the western digitals of the world micron or you look at the semiconductor sector and it's just gotten very very overbought and it's just unsustainable in my view uh regardless of what you know the future that uh you know they're uh the chips and the deals that might be done with China. So, you know, I think there is going to be some consolidation. The key is for the rest of the market to sort of [snorts] uh be able to hang in there and and and rise to the rescue and and help out technology and and there's no guarantee that happens, but that's what I'm expecting probably eventually should happen in the months to come. >> Yeah. Um, one one sector that could potentially help help out with that is the mining sector. And to steal a phrase you used is that sector is currently minting money uh at current levels. Uh, free cash flow and free cash flow yields are through the roof. Newman just reported last Thursday $1.6 billion in free cash flow just in Q3. Um what what is your sort of take on maybe we'll start with the commodities first here on gold and silver in the precious metal space before we talk to mining stocks themselves. >> Yeah, I I've been on record uh as of last January and my annual report of thinking that gold would go to uh really 4,800 and then start to peak out and a lot of my cycles showed that October is a pivotal month where the metals start to turn down. So, uh, interestingly enough, you know, at a time when everybody has just recognized the fact the metals are moving and for good reason when you look at, you know, lack of Fed independence potentially or or fiscal concerns and really no political party really wants to address uh cutting entitlements on on either side. Um, real rates have been moving down. Those are all very bullish fundamental reasons for why the metal should be able to work. But when you see a shot across the bow like we've seen uh lately uh despite the central bank buying um it's a little bit of a warning sign for those that are that are true trend following uh you know investors and I I think that that's a little bit of a wakeup call. So I'm I'm not as optimistic. I've encouraged investors to trim their holdings and I I think we probably have a little bit more to go on the downside. It's going to become more of a trading environment, I think, more than a uh a place to invest long term given that gold has been rising now for over three years and silver has honestly had a much better year than gold. So, um you know, a lot of it's going to depend my my honest view on both the miners and also on gold and silver is that we probably have one more leg down into mid November. We probably try to rally into year end and then uh 2026 is going to be down. And the reason for that, I think, is because rates have gotten artificially probably a little too low on the long end. I think the Fed's focus now is is back towards growth. Most of the rate cuts have been factored in, they anticipate that the US will be able to snap back and show better than average growth. And that can cause a steepening in the yield curve and if rates start to rise, uh, historically that's not been a great environment for the metals. So, uh, I'm a little mixed at this time. I'm not as wildly, uh, optimistic anymore on the metals. Um, and I think that they uh, you know, they they become more of a trader environment for for now more than one you want to just buy and hold after three years. >> No, I appreciate that. It's really really insightful. Maybe on the on the opposite end then like are you bullish than the US dollar for example? >> Uh, I do think eventually the dollar will start to rise. I I don't you know I I expected a little bit of a bounce into early next year and then I thought we would have a a final flush into next year which should be very supportive of uh you know potential commodities as well as emerging markets. we've already seen those snap back to life. But but the long term I I think you have to favor uh the US as being uh likely in a better spot than Europe. And I think that um you know eventually that's going to that's going to translate into the dollar starting to head back higher. So, uh, it's a tricky time because the dollar has already had such pronounced weakness here and and now we're starting to sort of churn sideways and we've seen that with both Treasury yields and also the dollar and I think it's going to be uh, you know, ideally we we get, you know, one more big move down which happens into probably next spring and and then it's probably time to consider going the other way. Honestly, I think yields are going to start to rise and I think the dollar probably also starts to move up. May maybe to summarize our conversation a little bit, Mark, but uh maybe to wrap it up here as well, like what should investors be paying attention to until a year end? Uh two months to go here and any themes that we should be paying explicit attention to? >> It's less about the themes. Those have really been, you know, a constant focus on on AI. It's more just about uh you know, keeping keeping uh an eye on on the longer term trends, keeping an eye on on sentiment. um you know really paying attention to the sector rotation and and hopefully we can see more sectors starting to to come to the rescue. I think it's just really really valuable to pay attention to these longer term trends and how they can really help investors to stay invested at a time of just uh you know very a lot of volatility and and a lot of uh exogenous events and things that are happening all around the world that that people think probably should uh cause damage in the US stock market that just really haven't and and so uh you know that's no different than any other year we had worries about COVID or every year brings its share of of issues And uh with with the the speed of information flow these days, uh most networks broadcast that loud and center to investors, it's just created a little bit of a wall of worry and a little bit of a a negative uh climate with regards to how we all think about uh the economy and the market and and honestly things are still uh I think in much better shape. I I do believe we're in a secular AI boom that likely lasts for many years. Uh but I don't think it's going to be straight up. I think there'll be pockets of where where [snorts] markets can weaken. But uh you know the key is just never if I had to give one piece of advice to investors I would say just beware of of uh you know buying trying to buy big pullbacks. It's always been my experience. It is very very difficult to try to buy dips. I know it's human nature to buy low so high, but in reality, we should all be taking uh a little bit more of a momentum driven focus and and buying highs, selling higher. When they start to weaken, we just get out of the way and not be in a rush to buy dips because that uh truly can be a portfolio killer when you're involved in something that just is struggling. And you have a value that you think it should be trading at and it doesn't and you can't understand why. And and honestly, the technical tools can really allow you to to put a finger on that and and and really to, you know, hold off on being too aggressive until the technicals and the fundamentals both line up and they're both starting to move higher. And so that's with AI tools or with other screening tools, it's it's it's very easy to implement something like that in in today's society. And I I think investors would be uh you know should be paying attention to uh ways that they can use all the tools around them to to help them these days. >> Fantastic. No, really, really insightful there, Mark. Um, how can we follow more of your work? Where can we send our investors? >> So, if you go to funstrat.com, uh, that's simply an area where, uh, you know, you can learn a little bit more about our firm. So, myself along with Tom Lee, uh, and we have a crypto team as well as a policy guy and and and you know, it's a wonderful firm. uh fsinsight.com is really our our retailbased um you know area where you can come to see you know you can subscribe to to research at different levels depending on if you're an investor or if you're an RAA we have different levels and broken down or if you're an institution we can work more with you uh one-on-one. I myself I'm on X at Mark Newton CMT and uh you know I would just encourage you to to to stop by and and uh you know happy to give your your viewers a trial if they'd like to sort of see what it's all about. So, I'll send you the links on that you can pass it out and if people have an interest then uh stop by and Tom's data of course is longer term intermediate term. He's looking at top down inflation and economic data and I'm more tactical daybyday and and just covering what's moving and why and so oftentimes we complement each other very nicely and so uh I think people have been very happy with our success. >> Fantastic. Awesome. Mark really appreciate your time. Thanks so much for coming on. We'll have to do this again soon. When do you publish your annual outlook? >> That will be sometime in the middle part of December. Um I'm going to Tokyo and I have to present there first and so I might make a couple changes but not many. So it'll be sometime in December and uh uh [snorts] before I forget, we we have started an ETF. Uh the ticker symbol is Granny Grny. So, uh, for those that remember Rick Barry's granny shot in the NBA that led Will Chamberlain to score 100 points in in the US [snorts] game of basketball, that was, uh, instrumental and the thinking being that it's so easy to shoot a granny and so these companies that we invest in on the large cap grow side, they hit a number of different metrics and so it allows them to be, you know, hopefully have a higher probability of success. And so it's been a a phenomenal success after 11 months and we're up to over 3.5 billion uh without being on many platforms. So >> didn't they change the rules for free throws though afterwards? >> Uh I don't know if the rules were changed. I don't know many people use that anymore, but it it you know those that have tried it. I mean I I uh I like the oldfashioned way, but then again I'm no basketball player. So >> yeah. No, I was watching something. Michael Jordan took his first ever free shot in like 10 years cuz he hasn't touched a basketball in like 10 years and he was super nervous but he was explaining about something about Will Chamberlain uh his his free throw shots because he used to run into it >> into a free throw right so that's what what that reminded me of that's why um no Mark really appreciate it thank you so much for joining us we'll have to do this again soon maybe right after you put out your annual report be great to get uh your take on things and where you see things headed in 2026 so much appreciate it Mark and everybody else, thank you so much for tuning in. Really, really interesting week as we're speaking here today on uh what is it, Wednesday, October 29th. Lots of lots of macro data hitting us. Fed decision looming here in a few short hours, but also the APEC meeting. Uh lots of momentum in the market, especially on the in the S&P 500, but uh the miners are catching a bit here again as well. So, I'm really curious uh what you think of Mark's take. Please put that down below, and if you haven't done so, hit that like button as well. So, thank you so much for tuning in. Take care.
GOLD: Word of Caution – Melt Up Before The Crash | Mark Newton
Summary
Transcript
Are we in the middle of an equity meltup in the US markets? The S&P 500 has been hitting all-time high after all-time high. Nvidia just broke through the $5 trillion mark. Microsoft is hot on its heels as well, over $4 trillion in market cap, and we're looking at seasonality here today as well. I've invited a fantastic guest to sort of help us understand what is happening in the markets, what is momentum like. Uh he's a technical strategist. His name is Mark Newton. really looking forward to catching up with him and really hope he can make sense for it. He can make sense for it or he can make sense of it all for us because there are a lot of macro news hitting us this week uh as we speak or in about 5 hours time as we're recording this. Uh the Fed will release its announcement on a potential cut 99.9% so we can assume that's a 25 basis point cut. But we also have the APEC meeting. We have earnings hitting us as well this week. So, a lot's going on and I'm really looking forward to that conversation. But before I switch over to my guest, hit that like and subscribe button. Helps us out tremendously and we much much appreciate. Thanks so much for doing that. Now, Mark, it is a great pleasure to have you on the program. Thanks so much for joining us. >> Thank you, Kai. Nice to be here. >> Mark, it's your first time on the program. Let's see where your head is at right now a little bit. Um, maybe give us your assessment of the economy and the financial markets from your standpoint. Well, honestly, the markets have, you know, to to your point have escalated pretty dramatically higher. A lot of that has been led by technology in recent months. Uh if you look at the market, you know, in general, uh many of the sectors have not really participated. So, we're in an interesting uh time in the economy and in the markets where uh other sectors are starting to diverge and are not really participating as much as as what tech is. Uh, [snorts] of course we had the earnings five of the Mag 7 this week. So, Nvidia today crossing $210. It's going to hit its five trillion mark. Uh, remarkable. And yes, that does represent, you know, 8% of the market. So, you know, the markets have been, you know, on a tear. We're up 17% now on the S&P and the last two years we've been up over 20%. uh many I think would have argued coming into this year that markets uh might experience some some turbulence or be flat but as we know earnings have been in very good shape and the economy I think has held up uh much better than anticipated. So, you know, despite some evidence of weakness on the fringe with regards to the labor market, uh the overall economy and and and earnings have held up and it really continues to be important to pay attention to those, you know, versus trying to use geopolitics or or even the political arena to try to make decisions regarding risk assets. >> Yeah. No, it's a definitely interesting time when it comes comes to that um earnings in good shape. Uh and and it's quite bifurcated. what what sectors are leading right now? You you touched on tech. Uh interesting statistic. Uh 398 of the 500 companies in the S&P 500 were negative yesterday despite a positive uh you know a green day in the S&P 500 yesterday. What do you make of that? What should we be focusing on? >> Well, it is important and it can be a negative if it persists. So you you you definitely want to see all sectors starting to rise uh in in unison and when it's only led by tech. Yesterday was one of the bre worst breath days we've seen uh in years. Uh today does not look to be any different. We have Nvidia of course leading the charge but yet market breath is down. Uh the majority of sectors are are not higher, they're lower. And just over the last month, we've seen actually five sectors out of the 11 uh have been negative over the last month, which is is remarkable when you think that the market has just been continuing to push higher. So, um you know, look, at some point it is important to start to see groups like financials really lead the charge. uh to your earlier question uh you know it's really been technology and almost exclusively over the last three months but we have seen utilities and healthcare um and to some extent you know other areas you know have tried to make some headway but but really in the last month it's been um you know financials, real estate, communications, services and energy have all been down and and so uh you know industrials have been largely flat. It is necessary, you know, for those of us that study market structure. You look at Dow theory, you want to see, you know, the transportation index along with the Dow Jones Industrial Average as well as the equated S&P and the S&P and the NASDAQ all moving higher. And right now, there's begun to be a little bit of a divergence. Uh that's not problematic until tech really starts to stall out and roll over and that hasn't happened yet. So, uh yes, tech does have the power to carry this market at a time when other sectors aren't participating. Uh the key is the sentiment and the sentiment right now is still largely mixed. We don't have uh a lot of speculation uh for a lot of understandable reasons but but until that changes the market can go up really with no rhyme or reason and uh you know does not have to simply uh fall because investors are bearish about tariffs or uh course of action for the Fed or or inflation or anything else. >> No, I appreciate that Mark. Um before maybe to set up my next question like you're a technical strategist I think we need to explain that term just a little bit. What do you actually do Mark? >> Yeah well yeah look I mean technical analysis is a study of price action. So I I look at uh you know volume uh you know charts to make decisions looking at seasonality uh sentiment market breath momentum. I I always try to identify you know stocks that are breaking out to new all-time high territory. Momentum has been the number one factor over the last 20 years. [snorts] Uh so here at Fundstrat I write an investment report every day and I do videos and so I I cover technical analysis. I basically guide investors retail as well as institutional to try to understand you know what sectors are starting to improve and really what the best stocks are that they might uh be concentrating on. But I also have a little bit of a macro bent. I do look at interest rates. I look at the dollar. I look at cryptocurrencies and metals and um you know there has been some correlation of course across some of these groups. And so uh you know very important to understand uh all of it but but really looking at what's moving and what has the potential to move versus taking you know a fundamental or you know listening to the the Fed you know you know talk about what they expect. It's very difficult to make money. Um many many times you know price has already baked in you know all a lot of what's being said and so uh you know technicals allow you to sort of take the blindfold off and see uh you know price action of things that it can start to lead and we always hope that in the long run you know mirrors fundamentals but but sometimes there's that diver that's that divergence and and really that's where I I step in. >> Yeah. No Mark um maybe a bit of a cheeky question. And you have Bloomberg running behind you um on on the TV and uh that is a lot of noise. Of course, mainstream media, you know, building their own narrative around what is going on. How do you manage to to to sort of blend that out and not maybe pay attention what Jonathan Pharaoh and Lisa Brahma would say in the morning? >> Well, I I appreciate their insight. Sometimes uh you know, having another set of eyes on what's moving can help you to uh understand different things that are happening across the economy and across different markets. But but I you know first and foremost you know looking at markets 247 I always want to just be on top of uh what trends are are are showing us for not only you know US stock indices but across the dollar and interest rates and everything and so you basically go from there and you really want to just concentrate on on what sectors are leading or starting to lag and look at market breath and momentum and uh you know I think it still remains an underutilized talent. Many American-based portfolio managers have always been taught the prudent man rule. You you manage money based on, you know, having a duty to your constituents to manage based on fundamental analysis and and finding uh you know, intrinsic value for the companies you're investing in. But but having a technical uh you know, screen is really more important than ever these days and really either for risk management purposes or really for the purposes of adding alpha to your portfolio management process. And so I I try my best to, you know, obviously give my insight to all of our institutional and retail clients and and really talk about the day-to-day uh movement of of what's what's happening and and how people can use that to make money. >> Fantastic. Yeah. No, um you mentioned seasonality a couple times uh already in this conversation. Uh it's the end of October with two months left. Um in terms of seasonality, where should we be at? We're in the middle of a meltup right now, but uh how sustainable is that meltup given maybe seasonal context here? >> Yeah, it's a great question. Look, this this post-election year has proven to be, I think, a little bit different than than maybe most u you know, it is showing very good performance, but the performance has far exceeded uh expectations. We did not see any real draw down in August, September or October uh with just a few days left. And now I think a lot of people are using this resilience as a chance to get bullish and think it's going to be all you know guns ahead uh guns ablazing and just to sort of pedal to the metal until year end. I think a lot of people CTAs and and just professional money managers have not been as uh actively exposed to risk assets and so this this sort of need to play catch-up um is is very real. Uh I think the problem is when you start to see breadth start to tail off like we have seen in the last few months and and fewer and fewer sectors participating uh you know as technology gets stretched you do set yourself up for the possibility of of a at least some consolidation in the indices and so I I see that likely happening from uh you know right near 6950 in the S&P and we're we're very close to there now. uh that likely takes us down into probably the middle part of November into November expiration before we can continue to push higher. Um so, you know, honestly, the the the best part of any given year in stocks is almost always to buy into dips in October and hold into the late spring. And so you have that typical October till late April uh window which over the last hundred years has allowed investors to earn at least three times as as much as if you invest really from from May uh through October. But this year has proven to be uh far different. we had the early year decline on on territories uh you know bottoming at the exact moment they were announced of course and then uh fear rose to levels we really haven't seen since the prior bare markets and so that that certainly is uh you know is very interesting but you know to get back to your question you know if you have you know nor in any normal year you normally want to be investing money uh and buying dips into the fall period and looking to sell into the spring uh being out of the market really moment momentum starts to turn down in the summertime because the fall period is usually quite treacherous but but this is this year is anything but but normal as we all know >> it it isn't that's for sure but I think that the trend is clear though it it seems quite positive at least what I'm hearing or seeing out of the US Europe is a whole different story seems to be complete mess that's where I'm based I'm not very hopeful of what is going on um I'm just looking here at the CNN fear and creed index and what what is really interesting is the market momentum versus the stock price strength. Mark momentum, we're seeing extreme greed, a lot of money, a lot of momentum as you said earlier, but on the stock price strength, we're looking at fear. Um, meaning it's quite divergent. Maybe you can elaborate on that a little bit because I think you touched on that already in your in your previous answer, but it is quite interesting because um what what they're mentioning is that a few stocks um skew sort of skew the returns for the rest, right? Meaning that's where the fear is coming from. >> Well, I think look, that's that's where the earnings are also. So we look at the mag 7 and big cap technology. Those are the companies that are changing all our lives for the better and and and it's it's important for those stocks to be uh you know making good money as well as as helping to carry the market higher. Uh this is no different than than any decade going back over the last hundred years. I mean back in the 1930s4s we had uh of course the generals General Electric, General Motors, Exxon, DuPont those were all really heavy waitings within uh you know equity markets and so that that did not necessarily u necessitate you know being called a bubble just because they were heavily weighted and and so every decade has its share of of really what's leading and what's not and and most recently of course we have our Apple and Nvidia and uh Microsoft and Alphabet and and so those certainly have been the ones that have been carrying us. [snorts] Uh to your earlier point though, we only have about 50% of all stocks right now that are above their 50-day moving average. And so that is a little bit of a concern because uh you know, in the last few months, uh we have far fewer stocks pushing higher than than normal. Um, so you know, as to what you do with that information, that doesn't mean you run out and and go to cash, but it does mean you have to keep a very careful eye on on trends and and really uh watch sentiment closely and and the cycles in my view are still very positive for, you know, this year. Even if we do have a little bit of a consolidation in November, I still expect to end the the year on a positive note. But next year, heading into a midterm election year, uh to your point on seasonality, it can be a little bit different and we might get some consolidation next year. >> Yeah. Um what you've been saying is it reminded me a lot of 1999 and should we party like it's 1999? Do we have maybe two more two more years before a breakdown? Um can you put some historical context around what is happening right now? Is it even comparable? >> I would say it is not comparable. It's almost been fashionable to to try to call everything we're seeing now a bubble, particularly those that have not participated in it maybe to the extent they would wanted. Uh we're in a bubble about talking about bubbles and and that's the problem I think in this day and age. uh while pees might seem overvalued, you know, we're trying to put a value on, you know, an area of the market that really none of us have ever experienced before and that that it, you know, we continue to hear the degree of uh AI spend being just uh through the roof and and overwhelming demand and and most CEOs on every conference call continue to extol the the virtues of just uh you know, the fact that the businesses are growing faster than ever. And so I I I think that you know pees in the high 20s or if you consider you know parts of mag 7 maybe in the low 30s are certainly nowhere near what we saw in 1999 when we had the stocks like the seable systems or exodus communications or or so on and so forth and some of these were trading at 150 200 >> [snorts] >> uh 300 pees and the use case in this society utilization is far greater than what we've seen in some time these companies are actually you know minting money and and and are doing a lot of good uh for society and and making all of us I think more productive by use of AI. So, you know, there's a big deflationary in impact from that and as prices start to come down because uh you know, the average consumer is getting much more productive and and uh you know, that helps to offset I think those inflationary worries uh when you mention when people talk about tariffs or whatnot and [snorts] we have a plummeting price of crude oil and and you know the AI effect on being deflationary uh you know that puts us in a sweet spot where the Fed can't afford to cut rates and and not really have to worry in my view. >> Yeah. Cutting rates into in in a positive economic environment like how do you put that into the same sentence and make it make sense actually like um you you gave us a a hint here hint just now. But like is that even the right move? Uh if we were to talk about that, >> I think it is the right move because I I think that mortgage rates have grown, you know, they basically doubled in the last few years for those in in the US. uh you know many people uh with homes had mortgages locked in at the 3% for some time know that now that's grown to 6 and a half 7% [snorts] and since co you know many of the house prices have grown by over 50% and so you know honestly that's an area of the market where I think we could be vulnerable uh over the next couple years is the housing market they've simply become too unaffordable and you know the the the cost for owning a mortgage on on properties although historically may lower on the lower end of things is still, you know, quite a bit higher than what we've seen in in recent days. So, difficult for a young college grad coming out of school and unemployment is higher for college grads now to to think that you're going to go out and and uh and buy a home with with very high mortgages. So the act of cutting rates although that is you know that affects the short end of the the curve obviously uh it does have the effect of uh you know bringing down you know the cost of borrowing I think which is going to be essential at a time when uh companies have largely uh stopped hiring as aggressively. So we're not really laying off people but but it's not as if the the economy is going gang busters. there are certain pockets that remain problematic and I think uh if you can bring interest rates down um at a time when inflation doesn't soar then I think that is the right call. >> Um one topic we've touched on a couple of times here on this program on sore financially is the subprime auto loans and uh do do lower interest rates help that sector as well? It's a $ 1.7 trillion sector that seems to be in crisis after that um bankruptcy or insolveny here. Um are you looking at that skeptically? Is that where a potential market breakdown could be coming from? >> You know, I'm not a credit specialist by trade, but I I do look at a few measures for just looking at the option adjusted spread and looking at just the the the ratios between investment grade credit to junk and and and when that starts to widen out dramatically, that can be an issue. uh there there might be defaults or or problems in some parts of the economy but I don't see that being a a systemic issue that really uh should metastasize I guess uh across the economy at this time. Credit does not seem to be uh in crisis mode. We we have had you know a few of the regional banks of course with their own uh issues but but you know we just had six major banks come out and report earnings in the last three weeks and and none of them spoke about you know credit as being a real really big issue for them. So I I would have to say that you know there there many that wish to sort of fit their own narrative by looking at the what's negative and and and I understand that but I don't think it's an issue right now for the for [snorts] the broader economy just yet. >> Perfect. Um, what I'm trying to do here is is fish maybe a little bit for some breakdown signals, things that you're looking at as well, Mark. Um, that could show us a shift in momentum perhaps and that market breath as as you mentioned is probably one of those breakdown indicators. Um, curious like what what else are you looking at? >> Yeah, when I look at markets say for over the last 100 years, I mean almost all markets peak out when you have just fewer and fewer stocks hitting new all-time high territory and start to decline. uh and we have seen a little bit of that since July, but it hasn't been as pronounced as what we saw in 2021, nor in the late 90s and 1999. We saw fewer and fewer stocks carrying the the load and and stocks in general started to to be lower. So, bull markets don't peak when all stocks reach their high and pull back. It's largely just uh that that process usually starts about 3 to six months ahead of a peak when fewer and fewer stocks hit new highs and and uh the markets just uh you know it's it's a bit thin or so uh at the top. So I I don't sense that we're uh at that level yet to be really concerned, but I I do suspect that if the market were not able to rally uh through year end and see really small caps participate after their recent breakout or see financial snap back to life or industrials which you know these are a couple groups that have been lagging of late um you know that that could be a problem heading into next year. So, I also look at sentiment. Uh, most of the bull market peaks that I've seen in the past, they all have very exuberant levels of sentiment where there's a lot of speculation, and we just haven't had that this year. To think that the market is just all of a sudden going to roll over and go into an extended downturn when everybody's negative, uh, you know, doesn't make a lot of sense. Normally, on the first sign of weakness, people tend to get very fearful and that honestly puts in a floor from a contrarian perspective as to when you want to buy stocks. So the combination of uh you know sentiment and and momentum and breadth are are certainly important but uh you know you have to look at market cycles and we're in one right now that suggests that this year uh should be a phenomenal year. Uh next year you know could allow for some consolidation and we could speak about that in the future but u you know my my indicators as long as tech is moving up are still quite quite bullish. Uh but I I do acknowledge that that you know tech has gotten a bit over its skis in some of the parts of technology data storage the seagates and the western digitals of the world micron or you look at the semiconductor sector and it's just gotten very very overbought and it's just unsustainable in my view uh regardless of what you know the future that uh you know they're uh the chips and the deals that might be done with China. So, you know, I think there is going to be some consolidation. The key is for the rest of the market to sort of [snorts] uh be able to hang in there and and and rise to the rescue and and help out technology and and there's no guarantee that happens, but that's what I'm expecting probably eventually should happen in the months to come. >> Yeah. Um, one one sector that could potentially help help out with that is the mining sector. And to steal a phrase you used is that sector is currently minting money uh at current levels. Uh, free cash flow and free cash flow yields are through the roof. Newman just reported last Thursday $1.6 billion in free cash flow just in Q3. Um what what is your sort of take on maybe we'll start with the commodities first here on gold and silver in the precious metal space before we talk to mining stocks themselves. >> Yeah, I I've been on record uh as of last January and my annual report of thinking that gold would go to uh really 4,800 and then start to peak out and a lot of my cycles showed that October is a pivotal month where the metals start to turn down. So, uh, interestingly enough, you know, at a time when everybody has just recognized the fact the metals are moving and for good reason when you look at, you know, lack of Fed independence potentially or or fiscal concerns and really no political party really wants to address uh cutting entitlements on on either side. Um, real rates have been moving down. Those are all very bullish fundamental reasons for why the metal should be able to work. But when you see a shot across the bow like we've seen uh lately uh despite the central bank buying um it's a little bit of a warning sign for those that are that are true trend following uh you know investors and I I think that that's a little bit of a wakeup call. So I'm I'm not as optimistic. I've encouraged investors to trim their holdings and I I think we probably have a little bit more to go on the downside. It's going to become more of a trading environment, I think, more than a uh a place to invest long term given that gold has been rising now for over three years and silver has honestly had a much better year than gold. So, um you know, a lot of it's going to depend my my honest view on both the miners and also on gold and silver is that we probably have one more leg down into mid November. We probably try to rally into year end and then uh 2026 is going to be down. And the reason for that, I think, is because rates have gotten artificially probably a little too low on the long end. I think the Fed's focus now is is back towards growth. Most of the rate cuts have been factored in, they anticipate that the US will be able to snap back and show better than average growth. And that can cause a steepening in the yield curve and if rates start to rise, uh, historically that's not been a great environment for the metals. So, uh, I'm a little mixed at this time. I'm not as wildly, uh, optimistic anymore on the metals. Um, and I think that they uh, you know, they they become more of a trader environment for for now more than one you want to just buy and hold after three years. >> No, I appreciate that. It's really really insightful. Maybe on the on the opposite end then like are you bullish than the US dollar for example? >> Uh, I do think eventually the dollar will start to rise. I I don't you know I I expected a little bit of a bounce into early next year and then I thought we would have a a final flush into next year which should be very supportive of uh you know potential commodities as well as emerging markets. we've already seen those snap back to life. But but the long term I I think you have to favor uh the US as being uh likely in a better spot than Europe. And I think that um you know eventually that's going to that's going to translate into the dollar starting to head back higher. So, uh, it's a tricky time because the dollar has already had such pronounced weakness here and and now we're starting to sort of churn sideways and we've seen that with both Treasury yields and also the dollar and I think it's going to be uh, you know, ideally we we get, you know, one more big move down which happens into probably next spring and and then it's probably time to consider going the other way. Honestly, I think yields are going to start to rise and I think the dollar probably also starts to move up. May maybe to summarize our conversation a little bit, Mark, but uh maybe to wrap it up here as well, like what should investors be paying attention to until a year end? Uh two months to go here and any themes that we should be paying explicit attention to? >> It's less about the themes. Those have really been, you know, a constant focus on on AI. It's more just about uh you know, keeping keeping uh an eye on on the longer term trends, keeping an eye on on sentiment. um you know really paying attention to the sector rotation and and hopefully we can see more sectors starting to to come to the rescue. I think it's just really really valuable to pay attention to these longer term trends and how they can really help investors to stay invested at a time of just uh you know very a lot of volatility and and a lot of uh exogenous events and things that are happening all around the world that that people think probably should uh cause damage in the US stock market that just really haven't and and so uh you know that's no different than any other year we had worries about COVID or every year brings its share of of issues And uh with with the the speed of information flow these days, uh most networks broadcast that loud and center to investors, it's just created a little bit of a wall of worry and a little bit of a a negative uh climate with regards to how we all think about uh the economy and the market and and honestly things are still uh I think in much better shape. I I do believe we're in a secular AI boom that likely lasts for many years. Uh but I don't think it's going to be straight up. I think there'll be pockets of where where [snorts] markets can weaken. But uh you know the key is just never if I had to give one piece of advice to investors I would say just beware of of uh you know buying trying to buy big pullbacks. It's always been my experience. It is very very difficult to try to buy dips. I know it's human nature to buy low so high, but in reality, we should all be taking uh a little bit more of a momentum driven focus and and buying highs, selling higher. When they start to weaken, we just get out of the way and not be in a rush to buy dips because that uh truly can be a portfolio killer when you're involved in something that just is struggling. And you have a value that you think it should be trading at and it doesn't and you can't understand why. And and honestly, the technical tools can really allow you to to put a finger on that and and and really to, you know, hold off on being too aggressive until the technicals and the fundamentals both line up and they're both starting to move higher. And so that's with AI tools or with other screening tools, it's it's it's very easy to implement something like that in in today's society. And I I think investors would be uh you know should be paying attention to uh ways that they can use all the tools around them to to help them these days. >> Fantastic. No, really, really insightful there, Mark. Um, how can we follow more of your work? Where can we send our investors? >> So, if you go to funstrat.com, uh, that's simply an area where, uh, you know, you can learn a little bit more about our firm. So, myself along with Tom Lee, uh, and we have a crypto team as well as a policy guy and and and you know, it's a wonderful firm. uh fsinsight.com is really our our retailbased um you know area where you can come to see you know you can subscribe to to research at different levels depending on if you're an investor or if you're an RAA we have different levels and broken down or if you're an institution we can work more with you uh one-on-one. I myself I'm on X at Mark Newton CMT and uh you know I would just encourage you to to to stop by and and uh you know happy to give your your viewers a trial if they'd like to sort of see what it's all about. So, I'll send you the links on that you can pass it out and if people have an interest then uh stop by and Tom's data of course is longer term intermediate term. He's looking at top down inflation and economic data and I'm more tactical daybyday and and just covering what's moving and why and so oftentimes we complement each other very nicely and so uh I think people have been very happy with our success. >> Fantastic. Awesome. Mark really appreciate your time. Thanks so much for coming on. We'll have to do this again soon. When do you publish your annual outlook? >> That will be sometime in the middle part of December. Um I'm going to Tokyo and I have to present there first and so I might make a couple changes but not many. So it'll be sometime in December and uh uh [snorts] before I forget, we we have started an ETF. Uh the ticker symbol is Granny Grny. So, uh, for those that remember Rick Barry's granny shot in the NBA that led Will Chamberlain to score 100 points in in the US [snorts] game of basketball, that was, uh, instrumental and the thinking being that it's so easy to shoot a granny and so these companies that we invest in on the large cap grow side, they hit a number of different metrics and so it allows them to be, you know, hopefully have a higher probability of success. And so it's been a a phenomenal success after 11 months and we're up to over 3.5 billion uh without being on many platforms. So >> didn't they change the rules for free throws though afterwards? >> Uh I don't know if the rules were changed. I don't know many people use that anymore, but it it you know those that have tried it. I mean I I uh I like the oldfashioned way, but then again I'm no basketball player. So >> yeah. No, I was watching something. Michael Jordan took his first ever free shot in like 10 years cuz he hasn't touched a basketball in like 10 years and he was super nervous but he was explaining about something about Will Chamberlain uh his his free throw shots because he used to run into it >> into a free throw right so that's what what that reminded me of that's why um no Mark really appreciate it thank you so much for joining us we'll have to do this again soon maybe right after you put out your annual report be great to get uh your take on things and where you see things headed in 2026 so much appreciate it Mark and everybody else, thank you so much for tuning in. Really, really interesting week as we're speaking here today on uh what is it, Wednesday, October 29th. Lots of lots of macro data hitting us. Fed decision looming here in a few short hours, but also the APEC meeting. Uh lots of momentum in the market, especially on the in the S&P 500, but uh the miners are catching a bit here again as well. So, I'm really curious uh what you think of Mark's take. Please put that down below, and if you haven't done so, hit that like button as well. So, thank you so much for tuning in. Take care.