Worst Bear Market Of Our Lifetime To Start In 2026? | Michael Oliver

Summary

• Market Outlook: Guest forecasts a major topping process and a far worse bear market beginning in early next year, with rate cuts signaling panic rather than support.
• Monetary Metals: Strong bullish call on gold and silver driven by spread breakouts versus the S&P, indicating a structural capital rotation into hard money.
• Gold & Silver Miners: Miners are deeply undervalued versus gold and the S&P; expectation that gold miners rally strongly and silver miners outperform both.
• Price Potential: Gold could feasibly approach prior cycle dimensions (~8x, implying near $8k) while silver could surge to $150–$200 quickly if spread triggers confirm.
• Energy & Commodities: Pending bullish triggers in crude oil and broader commodities despite recession risk; historical precedent shows oil can surge during downturns.
• Financials & Bonds: Financials (XLF) are underperforming and rolling over; the guest urges avoiding government bonds/Treasuries and challenges the 60/40 paradigm.
• Key Companies/Tickers: Nvidia (NVDA) volatility underscores narrow market leadership; Bitcoin is expected to drop toward ~$60k and underperform monetary metals.
• Investment Stance: Emphasis on “sound money,” favoring monetary metals and miners now, with commodities as a secondary tailwind; defensive positioning urged for the coming downturn.

Transcript

I think that the downside break we're going to see in the stock market that finally convinces people oops is not going to show up until early next year. That between now and then the market will labor. It might have some selloff but I don't think it's going to be horrendous if it does or it could just doawle around here more laborious action. That's the way we see it. I think it's topping. It's a process. Be patient. It's not the place to be and you'll see the real breakage starting sometime in the first quarter next year. >> Yeah. No, I think it's going to be different in a way that the the bare market you see is worse than any we've seen before. But otherwise, the pattern you're talking about is is you've nailed it here. >> Okay. And I'm sorry you said it's going to be different because the bare market that might happen this time will be what? Worse. Is that what you're saying? >> Far worse. I think the economic outcome will be far worse as well. Welcome to thoughtful money. I'm its founder and your host, Adam Teagert. Last week saw a big reversal that jarred Wall Street. After reporting yet again blockbuster results and upgrading its forecast, Nvidia stock first rose 6% and then fell to close the day down 3%. This dragged the major indices down with it along with most of the high growth tech stocks as well. Suddenly, Wall Street started panicking that the AI bubble had just burst before its eyes. Well, did it? Or was this just a pullback to set the markets up for an end-of-ear rally? To address these pressing questions, we're fortunate to welcome back to the program technical analyst and author Michael Oliver, founder of market research firm Momentum Structural Analysis. Michael, thanks so much for joining us today. >> Good to be back, Adam. Thank you. >> Hey, well, thank you for coming back, especially on Thanksgiving week. So, first off, Michael, early Thanksgiving to you and your family. Happy Thanksgiving to you and your family. Um, all right. Well, let's let's just roll up our sleeves and dive into that that key question I just mentioned. Um, was last week an important trend break or was it just a pullback to set things up to go even higher into the end of the year? >> It's a mixed situation. We we don't just look at for example NASDAQ 100 or Nvidia and the the key stocks that weigh so heavily in those two indexes S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 like you know in the first five stocks of NASDAQ 100 50% of the entire index okay Nvidia upfront okay and if you go to the S&P yes it's it's not quite so weighted but it's about 30% okay so what those those symbols do Nvidia being the pre-minent uh impacts his indexes more than 50 other stocks. Okay. Now, we all know this. Everybody is now focused on the fact that gee, the market's narrow. Okay? And yet it doesn't the market doesn't break down despite that violation of a rule. You know, the assumption being you you've got to have breadth. Uh what Nvidia did on Friday before the earnings report came out, we put out a report uh prior to the close that day when the report, you know, their earnings come out after the close. Uh we said if it really needs to rally first because it it certain short-term technicals didn't look right for it to have a bad report right out of the gate. And sure enough, they took the lid off of it. We went up as much as you might take three weeks to do. They did it in one hour. Okay. But then it it failed in the same day, which is a bit surprising, and closed weak enough for us to say, "Oops, you broke something." Okay? Now, I'm not going to say it's the end of the world. I'm saying it you slipped on a stone. Uh you're wobbly now. Okay? And NASDAQ 100 did too. By the end of the week, the close was not at a level that we liked in terms of breaking certain momentum factors. Uh but the S&P didn't. The S&P managed literally in the last few minutes we were watching. We had some key numbers that it had been trading below and got right back above them and closed and sure enough this morning we we shot back up. Our assumption is this broad view. The market's been topping since late last year, early this year depending on the index. A lot of stocks and indexes made highs late last year, November, December, and some of them made their highs in January, February this year. But basically around that fourmonth period, let's say, we think the market began a topping process. Now when we say topping process, that's the way the market has topped most times before. You go back and look at the dot top, it took a a year of laborious action, topping out, teasing new highs by just a little bit and then fumbling around but not breaking. It wasn't until early 2002 that the 2000 to 2002 bear started in a way that people started to notice and S&P dropped 50% in two years without a crash and as the 100 dropped 82% in two years. Uh but it took a whole year of arm wrestling. So it confused people made people those who were bearish and we were we said in January of 2000 be out of this market. Okay. Well, for the next half dozen months, it looked like we were wrong because the market wouldn't break down. Made teasing new highs. Same thing happened in 2007. We had a a target at the end of 2006 where S&P then was 1400. We said the high is going to be next year and it's going to be between 1550 and 1600. Well, in summer, early summer of 2007, it nipped out above 1550 and it had a sell-off. And the selloff that a lot of people thought, "Oh, that's it. It's broken down." And it came back up in September of 2007 and punched out that high. And then the Fed cut rates, surprise rate cut, half point, and the market partied. They partied into October. So about 3 weeks after the Fed rate cut, the market made yet again new highs. And in the process, now this is laborious is what I'm trying to explain here. >> Yep. >> You go back to the 2000 top, it hit a high at 1550 S&P 1553, I think it was. And in that high early in mid 2007, made a high just above 1550 as well. So they sold the old high, okay, the price jar, and they got a selloff. But then when they had the Fed rate cut, it blew out both of the all-time highs, the seven high and the 2000 high. So it was quote a breakout, right? You look at a price chart, you go through 1550, you got the 1576. So it was a legitimate price chart breakout. Momentum said no, it's no good. And if you sold that Fed rate cut, you nailed the high, okay, within three weeks. But it was laborious. So that's what we're seeing right now. I think momentum factors long-term not the price charts long-term momentum factors when you plot them in bar chart format which is what we do we we look at price secondarily have already broken massive uptrend structures and the rally that we've had to a new price high for momentum it looks like a price chart bumping the underneath side of that which it broke you had a nice tube you broke it you came back and bumped the underside not making new highs but price So, it's that type of action that is typical at stock market highs, laborious, non-confirmed highs, etc. And only then, perhaps 6 months later, do you see some blood spilled? I think that the downside break we're going to see in the stock market that finally convinces people, oops, is not going to show up until early next year. that between now and then the market will labor. It might have some selloff but I don't think it's going to be horrendous if it does or it could just doawle around here more laborious action and I think the real key time to be watching because we've got some numbers that come into play then uh frankly around the levels you're trading right now you do not want to be in January because you'll blow some big structure on annual momentum. Pardon me for the laborious conversation there, but that's the way we see it. I think it's topping. It's a process. Be patient. It's not the place to be. And you'll see the real breakage starting sometime in the first quarter next year. >> Okay. Um so what I what I heard you say there, Michael, is um this feels very similar to what you saw um you know about 15 years ago. um perhaps even down to the the the rate cut that the market parties on and then fails because it because it we're now back to majority probability at least in terms of the expect Marxist expectations that the Fed is going to cut in December >> maybe even a half point you know maybe >> but but but to you does that seem like yet another similarity to the period you were just talking about >> the same is true in 2000 in 2000 they ceased rate cuts excuse me rate rises that had been occurring in 2009 I They ceased. And in January of 2001, as the market started to roll over a bit, still not disastrous. It didn't spook the price folks, the Fed cut rates twice in that month, January 2001, and they cut rates all the way down while the market imploded. There was rate cuts are a sign that the central bank is panicked. And frankly, if if you look back at both of those peaks and circled the rate cuts, that was those were almost ideal times to just go short. Okay? Uh it meant something's wrong. Uh for example, Bernani in the mortgage crisis in mid 2007, he came out with a confidential statement to the public. Don't worry, the mortgage crisis is totally under control. Okay. >> Subprime is contained. >> Yeah. everything's fine, you know. And meanwhile, in September, he cut rates by half a point. Why do you do that if everything's under control, right? Okay. Uh he knew it wasn't. Uh and finally, he even did a QE uh a year after the high in October of 2008. Market kept going down through March 2009, but he did a QE at that point even. So, it was total panic on their part, but it was not a good sign for the market, which analysts don't seem to realize. I hear all this talk, oh, if they'll cut rates, that'll be good for the market. No, it isn't. It is not good. >> So, so Michael, while you've been talking here, I I pulled up this chart of um the Federal Funds rate, which is here in red. >> Um in blue is the unemployment rate. I probably should create a version of this chart that also has the S&P on it just so we can see the >> the market reaction. But this chart has these shaded um vertical columns which are the recessions and and I've brought this chart up a lot in in over the past couple of months. So probably many of my viewers are probably sick of me bringing it up here, but you're making the point that I have made very often here, which is if you look at the historical pattern in almost every case before we entered a recession, the Fed had >> hiked interest rates then plateaued them and it was when the Fed started cutting is when the the the start of the recession was declared. Now these recessions are declared in a rears. So, it wasn't declared at that moment, >> but but history showed that the wheels started coming off uh when the Fed was starting its cutting regime. And and pretty much in almost the every other uh every episode as well, as the Fed was starting to do that, the unemployment rate, which had been declining and then bottoming, started to, you know, hit its bottom, reversed, and then then violently spiked. And so, you have to have you see the pattern we're in right now, right? where we went through a hiking regime. We we've held it steady. We've now they they brought it down a little bit. They've held it steady again, but they're now starting to cut again. >> You have to have a really compelling argument why it's going to be different this time. And what I hear you saying is is it is highly likely not going to be different. >> Yeah. No, I think it's going to be different in a way that the the bare market you see than any we've seen before. But otherwise, the pattern you're talking about is is you've nailed it here. >> Okay. And I'm sorry, you said it's going to be different because the bare market that that might happen this time will be what? Worse. Is that what you said? >> Far worse. I think the economic outcome will be far worse as well because you go back quite a few decades there and that was quite informative. If you look back 50 plus years at Fed funds rate, you'll see that what we've had since 20089 when they effectively they got rates down to zero and started QE was even if you looked at you know the last 50 to 70 years whatever that chart showed the uh the rise in rates up to five was still trivial relative to the range of rates you see over those decades. So >> I'll pull it back up here so you can >> Yeah. Yeah. The red line has stayed in the bottom third of the past 75 years of action. Okay. And meaning and then look in about 10 of those 15 16 years it was says zero. Okay. So what I call this is a chichin chong bubble. Okay. The stock market bubble. What people say well this is one of the biggest bull markets in history. Yes it is. has lasted 15 years whereas most of them last a handful of years and tripled or so the stock market. This one you had a 11 12-fold increase in the S&P since 2009 and a 20 plusfold increase in NASDAQ 100 and money was free. So, it's like, you know, injecting something in everybody's investor arm, giving them all the liquidity they want to go bye-bye bye. And they preferred the stock market and they pushed it to a point of historical excess. And I don't care what the good arguments are, uh, they they all fit in the picture, but ultimately they overdid it. That's what happened with It wasn't it wasn't a a lie that internet would change our lives in a positive way, in a massive way, but it got overpriced and dropped 82%. After the 2000 high at NASDAQ, in fact, it took it till 2016 for the NASDAQ 100 to even get back to its do high. So that's where we are now. I think we have the biggest asset bubble the US has ever seen. And whenever these stock market downturns occur, that's when the data points go dark as hell, you know, and the Fed really gets gets panicked. Uh, but notice what we've done for 15 years. We've been in the bottom third of reality for the last 75 years in terms of the Fed's determination of what money should cost. Um, and therefore, it's created errors, distortions, and when that bubble breaks, it has a life of its own. So, um I totally understand this and look, you know, um it's funny. Um massive asset price bubbles historically tended to be something that happened like once in a generation because the aftermath was so devastating. >> Nobody wanted to go through that again, right? >> Um but you know, most people, most of my audience is 45, 50 and older. >> We've lived through three asset bubbles in the past 25 years, >> right? We had the.com bubble, we had the housing bubble 1.0, and now we have what what's called the everything bubble. And to borrow a term from David Stockman, who I'm sure you know, Michael Oliver, um he's written the book, um wrote a book after the GFC called the great defformation, sort of explaining, you know, what's been going on. and and we've had all of this central planner intervention that has um deformed normal price discovery and led prices rise to these these aarent heights as you were saying there. Um you were talking about you know how huge or huge chunk of the recent history of of interest rates was pretty much on the zero floor right um so we've created this massive deformed price bubble and here you're saying okay so when that crack crashes it's going to be worse than the previous bubbles that we've we've all lived through um so I guess first I just want to say okay so that's going to be worse than the market correction we saw during the great financial crisis if it's going to be worse so from your perspective What what what are you looking at here? I'm not necessarily looking for a percentage, but I mean half 2/3 worse in terms of >> I don't know about the downside. The downside in the stock market really is going to be sort of irrelevant. It won't be irrelevant in the first year or so because the only thing the average guy right now who's is not controlling his own investments but does have his retirement account. it's controlled by outside forces and he that's the only thing he's smiling about that is if it reflects the S&P he said oh boy I'm up on the year okay >> those those fortunate enough to have assets in the market are doing fine >> they they say boy if you snatch that away from them >> and usually the first leg down is like you know they'll take 20% a haircut real quick uh and then you'll have a fight and so forth because crashes aren't normal in stock markets yes in 29 there was one but in 2000 to 2002 there wasn't And it was a year after the high in 2008 before you ever had a crash like event. It was already been down for a full year, but it's not normal. Uh so you don't need that to take the market down. But >> just to be clear, you're not calling for a crash necessarily because it could be just a slow grind over. >> It could be a massive decline that has never had a crash event in it. Crash event is defined as like 30% drop in a couple weeks. Okay. Uh that that's rare. happened in 1987 S&P that time it didn't break annual momentum therefore it turned around and went back up this time it's a different situation but point being that right now the only thing the average guy's got is let's say he's 5 10 years from retirement is he's smiling at least I got my retirement account he's probably later on his mortgage his credit card is maxed out uh he has to file for delays on his tax return because he can't afford to pay it you know you get the point and if you take But but his stocks are up, you know, another double digit year for the third year in a row. >> Yeah. You take that, you know, let's say we end up the year we gain 10% on the S&P or so. Okay, fine. Okay. Uh he'll still smile. But if you you take that away in the first quarter of next year, he's got nothing to smile about. Therefore, emotion comes in to play. And already we're seeing emotion out there because we're seeing partisan splits within the Democrat party. There's a lot of emotion. Republican party is splitting now, fracturing in ways that probably are not going to come back together. So, you're seeing evidence of the consequences of this bubble burst even before it bursts. And you can bet that when it bursts, the pain will be very loud uh and will exhibit itself in ways outside the market even. Uh and right now we have a debt problem that is at crisis level that is way beyond just mortgages. We're talking about central government debt, Japanese debt, UK debt, US debt. Uh we've got a US T-bond market that acts like it's comeosse. And even the the president of the New York Fed, Williams, two weeks ago said uh in a talk, no doubt approved by higherups, uh that we're going to start buying US bonds uh because of quote illi liquidity. Bonds are supposed to be the 40% alternative to the stock market, >> right? >> And yet when we got trashed stock market during that last week and even before that off of the 7,000 high, we dropped down to 6,500 last week. Uh it took several weeks. Bonds didn't recover. Bond prices laid there at high yields. Prices just wouldn't rally. Yields wouldn't drop. They don't control the long end of the debt market. And now they're trying to meaning they're concerned about something. I don't know what cuz they all say everything's fine, but obviously they're concerned about something, >> right? But of course, you know, are they ever going to tell you that things are are are >> Sure. Yeah. They're going to come out and say, "Hey guys, get your helmets on." No. No. >> Yeah. Never. Yeah. Exactly. Exactly. So, Michael, okay, so there's so much to dig into here. um uh you you number of folks I've I've talked with recently on this program and this logic makes sense to me where they've said that that you know it used to be the economy that that wag the market tail. It really does seem to be the market tail now that wags the economy. Um, and you talked about the the guy who's kind of just hanging in there and what's keeping him >> net positive is is the returns that he's had in the market. Now, the vast vast majority of financial assets are owned by the top 10%. I mean, I've seen estimates somewhere between 87 to 93% of all financial assets are owned by the top 10%. If we look at retail spending like I think it's something like 50% of the uh of retail sales are are comprised by the top 10% or something like that. So my point here is is >> it it's it's if there is the correction that you're looking for not necessarily a crash but but the beginning of a of a grind downwards. I think yes, the the the guy who's hanging on is all of a sudden not going to have that that lifeline that the his 401k has been providing to him and he's going to start really feeling pain, >> but he's also going to start feeling a lot of pain as that top echelon >> starts curtailing its spending which has been >> keeping the economy looking good on average. Even though even even though the vast you know the median person has been really suffering on average we've looked okay because of the the top cohort punching above its weight. If if that starts getting constrained by a negative wealth effect, it's going to be crushing to the regular guy because not only is his individual stock, you know, portfolio now going down, but maybe his company starts laying off because the investor, you know, a a you know, overall purchasing goes down, but but then maybe, you know, uh because of the the the lack of of support from that top 10%, the company's having to start looking for ways to cut further costs and all that stuff. just the whole ripple effect that happens from all this. So it's it's a bit bigger. Correct. >> Oh yes. And you're right that that wave effect from the you say, "Well, just the rich guys get hurt." No, it's not. There's a wave effect when they get hurt. They lay off. They cut back factory spending. Uh they start dumping assets which exacerbates the downside. Look just what happened to Bitcoin which by the way we called. We said there's a potential crash here. We've been arguing that for about 6 months. We defined the trigger number. The first number was 108,000. Okay, we broke that, you know, six week, five so weeks ago. Uh, and then we had another level at 101300. 101,300 as a second trigger. Well, next thing you know, we're at 82,000. Okay, that hurt a lot of people with wealth and also a lot of the young generation that thought, hey, this is an easy train to ride. They've never seen a an event like that. Didn't think it could happen. So all of a sudden, notions of normality go out the window. And when you have notions, you don't know what's going to be here next year. What institution? What presumed assumptions about the Federal Reserve is it going to be here in two years? You maybe not. Maybe there's enough discuss that it's inability to do what it alleges it can do that it's gone. Uh also what if uh the average guy just can't can't pay enough pay his taxes on time uh you know talking lessening next year after a downturn and suddenly the government has to make a decision. Heck the IRS simply is not a source of revenue for the government anymore. Not effective anyway. Let's go to a sales tax. So all kinds of notions of prevailing trends. Income tax. Uh Federal Reserve always going to be here. All those things go out the window. Two-party system even. We've got a totally fragmented Democrat party. You got a right now what looks like going to be a fragmented GOP. Hey, what if we evolve into a three or four party system? >> Okay, think about that. I'm just I'm just going to interject just for a second here because >> you know I've I've >> sort of working up to ask you you know what does this worse >> worst bare market I don't know if you said of our lifetime but but worse than the GFC which is probably what folks remember most as the worst right now. >> Um what does that look like? And I'm I'm so curious to get your full answer on that both in terms of what the market could be down at the end of it or what the economy looks like at the end of it. But what you're going a step even further where you're saying, >> "Hey, this isn't just a story about what happens with our portfolios and maybe with our jobs. This is a story about what happens to the fabric of society. We might we might actually lose some of these institutions that we've had >> for a century or longer." >> A century. Yeah. But one long human lifetime is all the Fed's been around after all. You know, it's not like it's been there forever. And uh my there's already enough academics that are debating the issue and dis sort of disgruntled with the Fed. Even academics who sort of conceptually agree with the notion of the Fed that they're not pleased with its uh recurring boom bust cycle pattern as you showed, you know, on the charts there with the Fed funds and then this happened. It didn't wasn't exactly what the Fed's supposed to do. Uh so all kinds of things can get thrown up in the air when you get to an emotional point of panic especially among the population because that affects politics that affects uh assumptions of this continuing or not continuing. Uh and it's not just in the US. I think a lot of this is going to show elsewhere. It's already happened in Argentina. We had a total implosion of the two-party system there and rise of a guy who declares himself to be an anarcho capitalist. uh and he's dismantling government peace meal uh and you so in other words it's hands in the air what do we do now attitude and that's when things change drastically more so than in 2020279 this is much bigger it involves government debt uh and all kinds of assumptions about things continuing and it's not bad you know if something has been wrong and you've kept it in place for a century and yet it's not worked and you reject it. Maybe that's a good idea. >> That's what I was thinking about asking you as you were talking, which is >> Well, obviously what you're forecasting here for the next couple years at least say pretty dark. Probably not going to be a fun time to make it through, but are you does it make you more pessimistic or more optimistic about what happens when we come through? >> Oh, yeah. Very optimistic. Uh I'm sitting back like at the end of the bleachers watching a football. I'm not a sports guy, but this is like one prolonged sports game and I I think it's going to work out the way we assess. And there's broader reasons for it than just simply technical analysis. Although, you know, I never let my philosophical view interfere with my analysis view. But right now, I think there's some other there there are places out there to make you smile big time during this situation. And you've got to reorient yourself toward it. And specifically that's monetary metals. I don't call them precious metals. Platinum is a precious metal. I'm talking about gold and silver >> and more more or less a return to what's called sound money. Correct. >> Yeah. And return to money period. You know fiat currencies have been around you know not forever. We used to have gold silverbacked money units. In fact there's some major governments in the world in surprising places who are saying they're going to do that maybe. You know not us but you know the Chinese are talking about it so forth. Uh once there's a realization that fiat money has been a a prolonged drugged cycle, people will reject it. Like you when your grandfather built the house, cost him $4,500. When your father built the house, the medium price was $45,000. You want to build one, it's now $450,000. Okay. What's that? Because the housing prices are really rising. No, it's the degradation of the money unit. >> Right. Right. The purchasing power, the currency is degrading. Yeah. >> Yeah. and and that that's hurting people, you know, they wonder where's the inflation coming from. It's not because there's a short wheat crop or suddenly you can't get copper out of the ground. It's because the degradation in the money unit and the money went into stocks initially when they printed money. Now when the investor decides, oops, that doesn't work anymore. It goes somewhere else and it's already going there and I think it's on the cusp now of really starting a move. They can explain the reason for that conclusion. >> Okay. Um, so I'm gonna ask you more about, >> okay, >> monetary metals. I'm gonna ask you more about Bitcoin. I ask you more about commodities, etc. Um, let me let me keep digging here for a moment um on kind of the the problem side of the the ledger and then we'll get we'll get more to the hopefully solution side. Um, but but just stepping back one step. So, as we go through this this period of transition, which um I'm guessing you're probably familiar with um Neil How and the concept of the fourth turning. Um but I've had >> Neil familiar with it. That's I I don't necessarily share his assessment, but I think we're actually in what he's describing now. >> Okay. >> His own methodology comes up with the same conclusion I do. This time it's different. I agree with him. Yes. >> Yes. Yes. And I I hear similarities uh in terms of like you know this is the fourth turning is where the status quo that existed for the first the prior three turnings breaks down and it gets replaced with something new right and and and like you he is quite optimistic about >> going into the next first turning and all the benefits that come from that. But of course you get to get through the rest of the fourth turning which >> generally isn't all that fun as it goes on. Let let me ask you here. Um especially because you have a a real sort of sound money uh view of things. Um can we get to put it this way? What do you think are the odds we can get to that other side that you're you're hoping for without making a pretty serious detour through a more socialist pathway? >> Yeah, I think that that attempt to regain state socialism will will go down the sewer. it will not work. But it is interesting that it's created it's come back sort of like a dying hand reaching up out of the mud. Okay? Because the concept even where it used to be has been abandoned. Okay? Russia is no longer communist. Yes, it's a dictator but not a communist. China is no longer communist. the party. I have a very close friend who I can't reveal his name but he has a in the 1980s he was in China and a high consulting basis regarding natural gas and he talked to one of the chief guys in the party back then because China had already started its change you know away from total government control over crops and everything they started to privatize and he asked the guy why do you call yourself the communist party and the guy said it's just tradition And frankly, you know, if you really examine China, it's not what you think of as a quote communist country, you know, a commune or anything. So anyway, but things are changing in big ways and these events while they might be painful, you can also make you can also smile during this if you're in the right place. And I think on the outcome will be better. humankind progresses and sometimes there's pain in this and then giving a baby it's painful. Okay. Uh so I think yes there could be pain but I think the outcome is highly likely to be far better than what we've seen and socialism will will merely be one of the things that go down this the sump hole with other bad ideas. >> Okay. Okay. Yeah. And I feel I talk about with you this about this a lot more but but there's many other things I want to get to. I guess I'll just say I personally share your point of view and and I when I think about this and I've mentioned this to Neil before. I I I reflect on the um the Winston Churchill quote uh about Americans, although I think it applies to most humans in general, which he says, "I love Americans. You can always count on them to do the right thing after they've exhausted every single other potential option on the >> Yeah, that's probably what this pro in my opinion what this process will be like. But at the end, we'll be left with the things that actually work, right? So, um, okay. Um, so just walk me through your best guesstimate at this right now. Um, from a market and economy standpoint, what are the next I'm going to throw out three years, but you you tell me if you think it's it's materially shorter or materially longer that this this downward grind, this this worst bare market we've seen will be like, in other words, is there going to be tremendous layoffs? Is the market going to be a small fraction of what it is right now at the end of three years? Um or is this take a different you think this takes a different trajectory? >> Yeah, I think as far as the market drop, I don't know the dimensions except all bare markets have at least been 50 and usually uh 29 to 32 with NASDAQ going 100 like 80 plus percent drop. So wipeout, total wipeout in fact >> and it takes forever to get back up there. Okay, but forgetting that uh yes, layoffs will naturally occur. We know that I mean they have already started you know even all the big tech companies laying off tens of thousands and so so >> let me ask you this. We we we think back in the GFC we call it the great recession. Will this feel the same worse or not as bad as that? >> It'll be worse. Uh it'll probably meet the merits of depression. In fact, that last one met the merits of depression except for the state of Texas. Texas as part of the GDP of the country was sufficiently less weak and therefore the national numbers didn't quite make the threshold into depression. Okay? But it was, you know, again, personal life is the issue. It's not what the nation calls a recession or depression. If you're laid off, it's a depression. Okay? Um, etc. So, I think it's going to be far worse because the wave effects aren't just, oh, the breaking of AI. That's not this. That's not what this game's about. Yes, that may be a bubble. Fine. Okay, there's always a little bubble in each of these markets, but it's far broader than that. Uh, and it'll show up in far more places, like Bitcoin, for example, uh, or, uh, the financial sector that does not look good at all compared to the S&P. In fact, if you plot a spread of the XLF versus the S&P, it's imploding. It's near three-year lows relative performance-wise. So, something's going on out there that people aren't noticing. and it'll be far broader than merely AI finally smacking them in the face. Uh it's already going on in some sectors right now. Um so it it it will be very broad, very painful and it will not just be in the US and besides our our economies are too tied together now. You we can't even have Japan go down. It'll affect the world economy. Europe's not in good shape. UK is desperate. Uh you know, there's too many things here that are in sync to just go at the same time. So again, it's not just going to be a US mortgage crisis. Uh and and it will have wave effects uh period. >> Okay? So it'll be a rolling global intertwined. >> I think a piece of it though will come quickly. Uh but one we're more efficient today. You know what I mean? Information travels much more. >> Everything happens faster. >> Yes. Much faster. So also the regurgitation could happen faster. Okay. of the distortions of the last 15 years for example. So uh well like Bitcoin recently uh but I think large a lot of the compre the ex the expulsion to the downside is going to occur this year this coming year very rapidly. It's not going to drag out over it may drag out over three years but a lot of the pain will come suddenly. I think we're reaching a point where the incremental movement of certain markets, incremental by that I mean you four steps up, two steps back, five steps up, three steps back, that kind of thing is going to suddenly go away and you're going to have certain markets literally leave the earth and other markets not. Okay? Uh, and I I I have good solid technical reasons for that and so far we've been dead right and uh I think we're going to continue. But I think a lot of what we're about to see will be chaos theory type action, not incremental upside or downside. It will be extremely rapid. >> Okay. And and so um extremely rapid in 2026. So >> yeah, the stage is set and I think you know there are certain triggers that we could look at that I can explain what they mean and why I think those triggers are the ones to watch. Not simply looking at a price chart of the S&P for example or a price chart of gold. There's certain major asset class shifts that are about to be signaled that argue it's the beginning of something, not the end of something. >> Okay. Well, then let's talk about those in just a split second, but real quick, just make sure I have it. Um, it seems obvious that you say, "Look, next year, folks, uh, play defense. It's going to be a real rough year." And it sounds like right now, given what your models are telling you, your confidence is pretty high, and don't let me put words in your mouth, but sounds like it's pretty high that this is going to start as soon as January. >> Yeah, I think you might even see evidence of it before the end of the year. But the the triggers that I'm looking at, you're you're basically one of them is already at a pull level where you've already pulled the trigger. All you got to do is close the month where you are right now. And it that trigger gets pulled. We can look at that first if you want later. And then the other one, there's another trigger I'm looking at that is close. And when these triggers break, it's telling us something is about to begin. Not that the monetary metals which seem to be have have had an explosive move which they really haven't. I can explain that too. Uh it's just beginning and it's also it's not just a function of them going up. It's a function of another asset category going down because so far lately you'll notice except for January through April when the stock market imploded 20% gold shot up during that time. >> Total opposite to what the assumptions are. So did silver during that time. So you can look at both charts and sort of say, well, they're sort of all going up together. And they're really not when you measure them versus each other. Uh, and there's a signal structure that's about to be crossed that says that it just began. Something big just began. And it's at that point that my working assumption based on historical analysis is that in the six months following the trigger pulls that I'm going to show you, you'll see dramatic net price movements, especially in the monetary metals. Something that'll take your breath away. Not normal. >> All right. Well, then look, let's not waste any more time. Let's get to those indicators. >> And and what I'm trying to the path I'm trying to to um set for us here, which I think we're following well, is okay, we have all these problems. Um that lead you to conclude that things are going to get kind of rough. You're going to now talk us about the key indicators that you're watching that will let you know, you know, they're kind of telling you the trajectory of what's going to happen both on the downside for certain assets, the upside for other assets like monetary metals. >> And then I'm going to ask you just to just to let you know where I'm going is all right. So, if you're a concerned investor, which I think everybody watching this video is in general, but is specifically now after listening to this conversation, what should they consider doing as a strategy to a not become collateral damage to all this and maybe maybe even position themselves to profit a bit from it? >> Yeah, absolutely. You want to start those charts? So, the first one is the gold versus S&P. >> All right. And so, Michael, I'm now bringing up here um your latest report that you've uh you've done there at Momentum Structural Analysis. So, as you want to talk to any of these charts, just tell me which chart and I'll pull it up on the report. >> Sure. Well, this uh this first one is the gold versus S&P 500 spread chart, meaning the relative performance action of gold measured against the S&P. And what we do here is we simply take the closing price each month of the front month active uh gold contract. Right now that's December gold and divide it into the price of the S&P express that as a percent right now uh as of last Friday's close Friday's close uh it was at 61.8%. Okay dividing now that's not the end of the month though because these each of these are end of month except that last reading which is not that's intra month three trading days left after we do this interview. Uh back in 2011, we all know gold peaked in price and dropped hard. And during that process, it really started to collapse in the year 2013 and dropped to a final price low. And again, not this chart. This is a spread chart. Gold made its price low in December of 2015. And that's when that spread dropped down first time to near 50%. Okay, you could see there December 2015. >> But it had already come down hard. Okay, they had a nice rally after that bare low in gold. In fact, we turned bullish on gold at that point. Gold was a,50 at that low. We turned bullish at 1140. But anyway, at that point, gold rallied sharply, but also rallied versus the S&P. And therefore, you see that that shot up to the green line from that low just above 50. You shot up just below 65. Okay, in that first surge, okay, but actually there had been a high prior to that on the spread that shows up as well. But anyway, you came down again in performance. Gold underperformed the stock market down to a low in 2018, rallied again hard in price and against the S&P and shot up there just above 60% in 20120. We all recall the 2020 surge in gold because it had gone from a it had increased 40% in price from early 2020 to uh mid2020. gold went from like 1,400 over 2,000 or something. Anyway, and the spread also rallied. Okay. Then it it failed again there, found resistance, sold off again relative to the S&P and also in net price. Gold pulled back then and made a low under the 40% level. Okay? And then you based for a couple years. And that was that period of time if you recall on gold net price charts where it went sideways. It kept going up to 2,000 and get bashed. its low was like 1613 in that couple year period. So about a 20% pullback at extreme but it went sideways and the spread went sideways as well from 2021 22 23 24 in March of 24 we put out a report arguing gold's about to wake up out of its three plus year doldrums and sure enough the spread also exploded. Now where did it go? It went up to the line in April where it hit the green line again. Now, that green line is very important because it's recurring too many times as a pivotal point of resistance. Four times you've hit that line, counting last April's high, which was just below 60%. And after the April high in gold, that's when gold reached 3500, by the way. Gold pulled back for four or five months and went sideways net price, you know, in a fivemon range. and the performance pullback. So, you get the pullback from that line of resistance. You've now emerged above an 11year base top, clearly defined by four pivotal highs. Nobody's looking at this chart. They're all just looking at, oh, gold's 4,000 plus. That's a huge move, which it isn't. I'll explain in a second. You close here, you got a breakout. Now, what does this mean? Well, if you'll notice, every time this thing rallied, the spread up to that green line, that was also gold rallying in price, okay? Including the recent move from 2024 to the present. Gold exploded in price and so did the spread. You're just now breaking out freshly over of a massive decade plus structure. If this were a price chart, some little company that produces a product and it had a base like this and you saw that breakout, any technician would say, "I got to buy that guy." Okay. Well, what this spread chart is saying, there's about to become a massive shift in asset performance and preference into monetary metals and out of the S&P. This breakout signals that the arm wrestling match that we've seen for the last decade up and down and up and down really basically sideways either side of 50%. Okay. Uh is saying I'm I've just broken out. This is something starting not ending. So what I suspect is going to happen following this breakout, this technical signal is that more money flow will rush into the monetary metals which it's already been doing as evidenced by the breakout and outflow coming from the stock market. This just begins it. So in effect, if you flip this chart upside down and did it the other way, divide the S&P into gold, you'd see a topping pattern breaking through a support line. So either way, it says big asset change out of stocks, out of the paper bubble into monetary metals. This is the chart that I think is the most important one right now for any investor. >> Okay, so I totally understand all that logic. Um, and we got to wait to see what happens by the end of the month, but we're going to get there pretty quickly because we've got the Thanksgiving holidays which are eating some of the days between now and the end of the year. Um, so this will likely unless >> three trading days after today, after time of this interview. Yes. >> Yeah. So, so odds are pretty good. We're gonna we're going to close in a breakout here. And so I totally get, you know, you're saying, look, that's the start of something, not the end of something. Um, let me ask you this. >> So, this I just heard you make the argument that capital is going to start rotating or flowing out of the the the general stock market into the monetary metals. Um I have also heard similar predictions and this is from >> these are big Wall Street names like these are things Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, >> uh uh Jeff Goodlock, um >> uh that um you know the the 40-year bond bull market is over and going forward maybe it shouldn't be a 6040 portfolio. maybe you should take some of that 40 that's in bonds since they're not likely to do as well over the next couple decades and put that into some other alternative assets, monetary metals being one of those. So my question here is is >> do you think that not only going forward from here the monetary metals may not benefit from capital coming out of stocks but they may also have a second tailwind of capital coming out of bonds as well. Yes. Uh the the bond market is one you need to watch instead of watching Nvidia, Palunteer, stuff like that, you need to watch the US bond futures. We analyze them basically weekly and we analyze their price inversion of the yield of course and they had a collapse from 2000 year 2020 to 2022 that took price from about 190 on the T- bonds down to 117. That's a real implosion. That's when yields went crazy on the upside. But you haven't been able to in the subsequent three years to get off that that floor. And they've had three waves of upside that we can measure by our momentum metrics in T-bonds trying to get going. And they can't do it even with a period of sharp stock market weakness. And they don't correlate well to the Fed funds rate either. Uh, in fact, when the Fed cut rates, uh, the bonds drop in price, rise in yield. Uh, that's been the pattern recently. So, you got to watch the bond market because it's a monster. And if it's in trouble, as we know it is, Jamie Diamond has said fundamentally, you know, this recurring government debt cycle, uh, it can't just keep going on. This is a real big problem. Well, the Japanese are having that same problem. The UK is having it. We're having government default potentials. you know, don't don't use that word, please. Uh, but it's an asset that is now totally in question and instead of 6040, maybe it should be 60% monetary, 20 bonds and 20 stocks. Okay, it's an heck of an admission for these big firms to make that statement, though. You're right. They've never made a statement like that where maybe gold is actually viable. And all we're saying is put your money in cash. Real cash. real money. >> Real money. >> So you want you want to go to the sidelines, go to cash, but not dollars because they're decaying rapidly and they'll decay even more rapidly when the central bank here and elsewhere print print to save their paper assets. So this degradation of the money in it, the dollar's real buying power will accelerate. So that's not cash anymore. That's not money. That's a you're buying a declining asset. Okay? Gold is not. Uh anyway, uh this is this technical here tells us it's just beginning. >> Just beginning. Okay. So, which chart should we go to next? >> Yeah. Oh, another comment on the gold. Golds are 4,000 bucks. Okay. You know, made a low in 2015 where,50. So, we're four four-fold. Okay. If you go back and look at the two prior bull markets, 76 bare low to 1980 high, 2001 to 2011, both were eightfold moves. bare low to bull high. So on a ratio scale, we're only halfway to what those two bull markets already did. And yet we've got conditions out there that are fuming and starting that could drive gold well past an eight-fold move. This spread is saying don't think gold is overvalued. It's just beginning. Okay. The next >> So it sounds like it sounds like you're saying then like $8,000 gold is nearly that's that's that would be a norm. I'm not saying you're going to stop there. I'm just saying when you get to 8,000, at least you have matched the peak at 1920 in 2011 and the peak at 850 in 1980, which were the end of 8fold dimension moves over different spans of time, but same dimension on a ratio scale. Match that, you got to go to 8,500 or something. Okay? Uh and and I'm not I don't put that out as a target. I just point that out as a fact that oh we've done it a third time. Big deal. Okay. Okay. >> I I hate to ask you this. So if if if it's 8x the the metal itself >> in these rallies, what is it for the miners which are a leverage play? >> Yeah, they're they're vastly the miners are the better place to be. They are vastly undervalued. If I ran a spread chart, which we've done even in this report, I think of uh the miners versus gold. Um, yeah, go to another page. This will show, keep going. This will show you gold miners. Keep going. Uh, one more page. >> There we go. >> This is the XAU index. It's the Philadelphia gold and silver miners index. Goes back to the 1980s. This index does. That's why we used it to measure against the S&P here. Just like gold, it had a collapse in relative performance that ended in 2015 on this spread. And sure enough, since that price low in XAU, it also made a spread low down there just above 2%. Then you had a big rally. Then you had another pull back to that 2% zone. Another big rally, another sell-off down toward the 2% zone. And now look what's going on. You have a three point, now a four-point trend line that you hit in September. October was a mild pullback from that line. November is now upticking. Now, I don't know if you're going to break out this month. You're just below the breakout level. But notice the behavior with those two prior peaks. When you hit that line, you imploded. This time, we tried to. We had a down month in October on the spread off of that line, meaning that line is now validated as a structure. And you're upticking instead of continuing down. you close that spread out around actually our number is 4.45%. Uh if you close a month there, the gold miners are doing what gold is saying as well. We're now going to outperform the stock market. And in fact, if you smack yourself in the face and realize what you're looking at here at this level at around 4 and a.5% go back and look at the action of the last 10 years, most of the lows were 2 and a half to 2%. meaning miners are about double >> their performance of the S&P when you measure against those lows. >> For instance, if you went in in late 2015 and bought miners and sold the S&P, you're making money. You doubled your money. You went from two something to four something. Okay? Similar with the other lows. Anyway, this is another asset class shift signal. And the miners, by the way, if you run this same spread chart against gold itself, they are very dirt cheap historically. Let me chatter on about this. If you take the XAU and go back to the 1980s, 1990s, 2000 up through about 2008, so about 30 years, this spread, which is now just below 4 and a.5%. Was living in a range from 17.5% to 30%. >> Wow. >> Of the price of an ounce of gold. Okay, now it's at 4.4% the price of gold. Uh, no, excuse me, on this chart, but actually versus gold at 7% right now. 7 7 and a half area XAU into gold. You get that beast above about 8%. And you ever see XAU rise to a level that it's getting credibly out above 8%. divided into an ounce of gold and you have a 10-year base there that is breaking out. That spread could double or triple just to go to resistance, the next resistance on the historical spread chart. I think the miners are about to outperform gold in an astounding way over the next year or two. So, if I if I were investing in monetary metals, which is what I'm doing, my focus is primarily on the miners. Yes, I'm watching gold. It's very important. It's the mama, but the miners will outperform it. And two, silver. If we go back a couple more pages, we can look at that silver chart. >> Well, another page. >> One more. >> These are the spread charts. Now, now this one's different because this this is monthly going back to 2020. The top chart, it measures an ounce to December silver right now is the contract we're looking at and December gold. We rotate to the active front month constantly on this process. Anyway, we can see that back in 2020 when we had that huge surge in silver and gold, gold shot up 40%, silver doubled in price. Uh that was during that COVID period, you know, and when the Fed came in and printed a lot, okay, the performance of silver beat gold handily. It surged big from like 9/10 of a percent to 1.5%. That's like buying a stock at 90 and having to go to 150. Okay, same dimension. But over the years since gold went into that range, you know, after hitting 2000 price of 2000 in the year 2020 when this spread basically peaked where silver was beating gold. During that period of sideways in gold, the silver and the miners tended to erode more. Instead of going sideways, they tended to back off. And therefore, on this spread chart, you see a decline. And the red line on the top chart, the spread chart shows one, two, three hits on the line. That third arrow was September. October had a mild pullback off of that three-point trend line. Mild. It didn't drop sharply as it did prior and prior hits on that line. This month, you're out above it. So, just on the spread chart, you're breaking a fouryearold trend line. Now, there's also a flat ceiling. This is probably even more important. It's at 1.31%. Now, this part, write that down if you want to divide December silver into de gold to express it as a percent. Right now, it's a 1.2 3 or 24 right now. Okay. You get over 1.31 and you blow through that multi-year ceiling as well. So, the spread at that point says, "It's it. I'm gone. I'm going to beat gold now. I'm going to surge against gold." What's below it is our momentum chart of the spread. We like momentum because it usually leads price. In this case, spread chart is price versus price. Okay. The momentum chart measures that spread action relative to a 10-month average of the spread. And it creates this oscillator. And you can see the red line on that chart. Two highs back in 22 24 and also a low in 2020. All lined up perfectly. a perfect ceiling. You're pressing at it for the last couple months. You close out this month about 1.246% to get precise. Divide D gold into uh D silver into D gold expresses a percent. This spread blows out through a massive base. It says I'm on I'm on my way. Again, this is a spread situation like the gold S&P that says, "I'm just beginning. I'm not ending something. I'm just starting something." The last time silver had a spread breakout like this where once the spread broke out, you gushed to the upside, silver beating gold was in 1979 and 2010 to 11. That's when silver quinttoled in go in price in five months in 79 summer 79 to the peak of early 1980. It quintupled in five months and in 2010 111 between the month it broke out and hitting its high in April 2011 it went a double and a half in seven months. You break this spread out and we think no this is not the end of something starting but it's a major explosion in silver versus gold. We're arguing that it's highly likely based on some other major factors. We can talk about them if you want. Just historical price ranges of silver that are highly distorted by monetary degradation terms of where it should be. Silver could go to, I'm guessing, $150 to $200 in 6 months. Uh, has it happened before? Yes. We ran charts of such base metals as copper and lead going back to the 70s, 80s, 90s into the year 2000. And they had a similar range as silvers had for 50 years, which is a range 50 bucks 15, 50 bucks 10. You get my point. Never come out of that range. Copper came out of that range, multi-deade range in 200 late 2005 and quadrupled in price in a matter of a couple quarters and then lived in a new reality since then. Lead did the same thing after a multi-deade range that you could easily define on a price chart, quintupled in quadrupled to quintupled in price in a couple quarters and lived in a new range. How come silver is still stuck in its range of 50 years? M >> there's arguments why it is. We know arguments why. Yeah. Yeah. And when it breaks out, it's going to say, "Hey, you know, there's overdone markets on the upside. I'm overdone on the downside. I'm coming out of here." >> And silver ratio to gold historically is 20 of the last 50 years it's been 2%. Even in a normal years, not even bullshed 6 and a half% 1980. And in 2011 bull year, it reached three and a half percent. We're talking about 1.2. If you even go to the spread highs we saw in that 2011 bull market. You could take this spread up to 3% plus. That's a tripling in the relative value of silver to gold. And we're arguing when it occurs it will not be slow. It'll be very fast. >> Okay. So um uh you've got all these indicators that are showing that we are either at or very close to these break these trend breakouts which historically have shown >> the the multiple advances the advances by multiples that you've walked us through here. So just to to help folks kind of get a finger to the wind sense in their mind. You said, "Okay, if this plays out the way that it has previously, wouldn't shock you to see it would be a normal almost for gold to get to 800, sorry, 8,000 an ounce. Miners would do substantially better than that. Um, you talked about how silver could go to 150 or 200 bucks an ounce pretty quickly, but that's only a tripling from where it is right now." Um, if gold got to 8,000, where would silver be around then, do you think? >> Well, if if even it were just 2%. You do the math because 2% it's been there 20 of the last 50 years you've seen at least reach 2%. >> Mhm. >> Even if it just went to 2%. What's 2% of 8,000? Okay. >> That's that's what I'm trying to do the math on right now. Should be able to do it easily. Uh right. But >> yeah, but the point being that >> 1% would be 80, 2% would be 160. Is that >> Yeah, something like that. But that's that's that's even cheap. uh when you do the you take the real value of the money unit and factor that in. If you go back to 1980, now Eric Sprat I think has done this and some other people uh you know $200 silver would merely be getting up to those levels if you factor in the real degradation in the the buying power of the dollar. >> Mhm. You know, so that would just be getting the normal. Usually when a market has been abnormal for too long, either too high or too low, when it goes and corrects and goes to a new reality, it usually goes excessive. >> Right? When it reverts to the mean, it usually doesn't stop. >> It doesn't stop at the mean. It goes way beyond and then maybe comes back to the mean again. But so don't be shocked by what you see. I'm just arguing that when this occurs, it will be so rapid that if you're not already in this market, especially emphasizing silver in the monetary metals and silver miners in the monetary metals, which are likely to do better than gold and gold miners, uh though, you know, as we've talked about, the miners in general are a good place to be. I think silver will beat the whole thing. And silver miners, uh, they're off the page dirt cheap relative to gold miners. They're dirt cheap compared to gold. You got everything going for you and you have a technical metric here that gives you a defining point, not just guesswork. There've been a lot of ups and silver here. You can see over the last couple years against gold. They didn't take hold. This one will take hold because it's structurally defined. >> All right. So, for the person who is watching this, who has watched the precious metals have a great year this year finally. Um cuz there's a lot of people watching this, Michael, who have held on to the precious metals for a lot longer than that and have the the scars uh to to show for it. Um but for the people who weren't in the precious metals, saw gold and silver, you know, be up whatever they've been up 40 50% plus this year, the miners up 100%. >> And have said, "Shoot, I missed it." You're saying, "You haven't. You're just we're just starting. >> The game's just beginning." and and you know you again you got to look at the spread relative performance relationship price level of the miners versus the S&P go back 50 years and look at it you know uh and versus gold you can see they're dirt dirt cheap they're like effectively you're buying something at two bucks that used to be a hundred okay uh it's effectively that there's the risk on the downside relative performance-wise is like zero the question is when are they going to wake up and the triggers we're looking at right here these are wake up triggers And when they cross through those numbers, they're going to have a tantrum. >> Got it. And it sounds like what you're saying is is >> they're they're waking up now, right? In other words, like this is not something that oh, you know, sit and think about and maybe in a year you'll be able to see what's going on. You're like this they're they're shooting the gun now and you probably want to think about getting in this trade. >> You've never been in the monetary medals. This is literally a fresh investment grade signal that says it's time to consider shifting your money into monetary metals and or their miners. >> Okay. All right. Well, look, um, if you don't mind, I'd like to go, we're over the hour. I'd like to go a little bit longer just because there are a couple of other key things I wanted to ask you about. Um, we'll have to give them shorter shrift here, but I'm happy to have you back on, Michael, and talk at greater depth about them. So, um, you talked about one sector that's got your attention a lot right now, which sounds like it's kind of degrading, which is the financials. Let's talk about that briefly. Then I want to ask you about energy because that's another complex that >> has been in the doldrums for a long time. Do you expect that to rotate back into favor? >> Yep. Yep. Yep. >> And and and I'll ask you this question when we talk about it, but but even if the economy is falling into a massive recession, >> it's done it before. You got to go back and look at crude oil futures. Go back decades and overlap it with the movement in let's say silver, gold, and also the S&P and you'll see recessions do not stop surges in oil period. Okay. The Bloomberg commodity index can go up during a recession as well. In fact, it's broken out by our metrics of a two-year basing pattern after that big run in 2020 to 2022. The war started, commodities came down, then they went dead for a couple years. So did oil. Now oil is the weakest component of the commodity complex right now. Definitely, >> but it has trigger levels using our long-term momentum that suggests several dollars above where you are now, you start to trigger them. >> And when you get into the first quarter next year, you if you're want to be bullish on oil, you see it up around the mid60s, get bullish because it momentum says I'm going to explode out of this hole and join the commodity complex. But yes, in the past during recessions, >> uh you could see the monetary metals get flow out of the weak stock market and oil is right on the coattail along with commodity complex. Late 70s for example, we had a global recession, right? Stagflation. What did the oil do? Exploded then >> 7980 commodities exploded including oil. So don't make that assumption that the economy will hurt oil or etc. >> Okay. So, sounds like you're fairly bullish oil then and sounds like >> Yeah, I'm pending bullish. We have trigger levels that we define and update constantly and I think it will slingshot once it hits our trigger levels. Yes. >> Got it. So, so unlike unlike the monetary metals which are triggering your game on now. Oil hasn't done so yet. >> Oil is is still in a net sideways trend really is what oil's been in for a couple years now after that pullback. >> Yeah. >> Uh and what we're looking for is its net trend to turn up again. And we've got trigger numbers that will occur well before any price chart level is triggered. And I think oil will snap back and and surprise the president, you know, and people who assume that he's going to keep gas prices down. >> Uh you mentioned financials as well. >> Yeah. Real real quick just before we get to financials. So, um, if if we have the market action that you expect where if I took good notes, you you think that it's not necessarily a crash, but that you think we'll take a fair amount of the pain, you know, in 2026. >> Um, do you think there might there would be enough pain that we might get margin calls, meaning kind of everything will get sold initially? My my point is is if you're excited about some of these these sectors you're talking about, >> may you get better entry points at some point in 2026 if there's kind of a vortex pulling everything down temporarily before these other things recover. >> Yeah, it wouldn't surprise me that you get such, but I'll make you a bet. You break that silver gold spread out and you break the gold versus S&P out. >> It's after a massive surge and then the stock market triggers something, let's say first quarter, second. Well, they they're surging and they say, "Oh, we'll have a correction, too, but it won't be at these levels." Okay, so if you want to wait for that correction if it happens, and by the way, those are rarities. 2008, October 2008 is a rarity where gold dropped and silver with the S&P. Actually, gold and silver were an ongoing uptrend. That was merely a blip. >> Yeah, >> it wasn't for the S&P. It was still going down. Okay. So, don't make that confusing, nightmarish thought. Yeah. >> And you're saying there's no guarantee that's even going to happen here. It's not even no guarantee. In fact, what drives the monetary metals? The degradation of the money unit. >> What will cause the degradation of the money unit to increase? The Fed printing more more and more. Why? Because the market's going down, down, down. Yep. >> Data points getting dark, dark, dark. They print more more. They go nuts. You have monetary inflation like you haven't seen before. They come up with a QE3 or something. I don't whatever. You get my point. This is what fuels gold. What what comes after QE forever? QE million dollar checks for everybody. You know, you know, we have the Venezuelan stock market. If you look at it, you think, boy, what a great place to be. Just vertical. >> Okay. Yeah. That's because they print money like crazy and it doesn't mean anything. To some extent that applies to our market. >> Okay. But my core question, it sounds like you're saying it might happen, but there's no guarantee it will. And you probably even the deals are going to get back then get it that >> and it could be at a much much higher level. It could be at a much much higher level where you say, "Gee, I wish I'd participated in that move this $200 silver and now it's going to correct 50 bucks." Oh. Oh, okay. I should have bought back in December of 2025. >> Don't buy it 3 months after that spread breaks out. When that spread breaks out, silver, gold, gold, S&P, uh that's time to consider making a shift. And it's beginning. Don't don't consider it as something ending. Uh >> okay. And Michael, you know, I will you know, the door will always be open for you here on this channel. But but if if and when this plays out the way that you think and the rocket fuel has been used and it's time to rotate into something else, you come back on this channel and you tell us obviously after you've told your own subscribers. Um all right. So I interrupted you, but financials, what are financials telling you right now? >> Uh the financials are relatively weak to the S&P. For example, XLF, the financial ETF, which has brokerage firms, banks, etc., insurance, all that stuff in it. Uh, it's trading below its January highs. Okay, that, in other words, when we made the April break, it broke along with the S&P and the NASDAQ. It turned back up, made a marginal new high. S&P made new high by like a dozen%, 12, 13%. S&P is now pulling back, but XLF is back below its prior January high. That would be like the S&P right now being about 6,000. Okay. Back below its earlier year highs. >> Mhm. >> If it were matching XLF. So XLF played the game and made quote a new high. So you could say, "Oh, look, it made a new high." But it was like, uh, who cared? And now you're below it. Okay. So you've aborted back below the quote breakout level. So financials are saying, "Hey, I'm not strong. I'm I'm now very weak." By the way, the same sort of weakness in financials on a spread basis, relative performance occurred back in 2007. Hm. >> H I wonder why. >> So, history history rhyming again. >> Yeah. Yeah. >> Okay. So, um All right. So, this is again one of those things that's giving you the the the sense that >> we're we're approaching some sort of change point. >> Focusing mainly on the S&P and NASDAQ price. >> Look instead at their momentum and also look at some of the subsectors that look like dog meat that they don't look good. >> Okay. Well, one that didn't look good to you, and you mentioned it briefly earlier, um, and I I want to I want to, um, give you your due prompts for having been very public about this. You were saying, look, I think Bitcoin is going to go through a pretty big correction. Now, as you summarized earlier, it went down from, you know, 120 something a coin to low of 81, 82. It's now, I think, back up at about 88 uh,000 a coin the moment we're recording here. So my question for you is was that it is this now the time to buy Bitcoin or are you still expecting >> No, I expect more the bounce point that it's occurring from. I know why it's occurring there to discuss it right now. It's just a minor technical point of some people looking at a long-term average thinking it's got to stop at that average and it won't. It will bounce at it but not stop. Anyway, I think ultimately there's a level on Bitcoin even on price that a price guy could see and say, "Oh god, this is you better not go here." And that's around 7,400. That was the high in a couple years ago. Then it was the low last year, I think. >> Sorry, you said 7,400. Did you mean >> 74,000? Excuse me. Yeah, I keep I keep forget. Pardon me. Yeah. Uh I've been examining Bitcoin since it was futures contract 17. So at one point it was 7,400. Pardon me. But uh when you break that pivot point, they're going to gush all the way. And I think we're going to go down to about 60,000 before you get any serious bounce. I do not think it'll resume a bull trend. I think you're broken and therefore you can expect it to oh, you'll have bounces, nice trading swings. There's no question about that. But I don't think it will resume a bull trend for quite some time, if ever, because the reality of Bitcoin might just expose itself as sort of a non-reality. Uh, and I think the education is starting now and that's why people are shocked by what's going on. I don't know why momentum said this was going to happen. The structure was like a if you saw the quarterly momentum oscillator of Bitcoin and you looked at the monthly price chart of Bitcoin, you'd see one reality that made you smile and another one said, "Oh my god, what's what right below my feet is a floor that if I break I'm just going to go gush and you did and I think it's it's just begun." >> Okay. So, uh, in the short term and and I'm sorry we're at the end here. I don't have a chance to to dig on some of the other sort of larger comments you made about Bitcoin, but um you think that uh this bounce it's having right now is going to be shortlived. Uh it's going to eventually flush down to about 60 and kind of stagnate there. Uh >> and then what happens from there, who knows? But but you're you're you're not the people that are saying Bitcoin to a million in two years. >> Yeah. >> You're you're not on that crowd. >> Oh. Oh, no. No. In fact, I you know, it wouldn't shock me that it's the game may be over uh in terms of public perception, uh public thoughts about what is this thing anyway? Uh is it what we thought it was? It's certainly not beating gold. In fact, it hadn't beat gold for quite a few years. Gold's been on par with Bitcoin if you do a spread measurement. Now, it's underperforming drastically suddenly. >> Yeah. >> In a way that, you know, >> and sorry to interrupt. This is unfair. We have a few minutes left, but but in in 60 seconds or less >> for you, what is the key reason why Bitcoin is not going to participate in the action you expect the monetary metals to have? Because >> well, Bitcoin is an overlay. You could take a Bitcoin monthly price chart. Go back to 2020 and a monthly price chart of NASDAQ 100. Erase the time the price scale on the left and overlay them. They're the same market. >> It's a correlation of near one. Oh, it's almost it's almost month by month. The only difference now is yes, NASDAQ's dropped modestly off of its high whereas Bitcoin's imploded. The question now is well is Bitcoin a leader or is it now going to divorce from the stock market? Stock market going to keep going up which we don't think or is suddenly NASDAQ 100 going to join it sometime next year. Uh which wouldn't surprise us but they're behaving like nothing to do with the underlying reality. It's simply an emotional market driven by the same es and flows of let's buy it, let's sell, let's buy. Okay, you get the point. The same inhale exhale and yet they're not. Bitcoin is not stocks. Why is it behaving like stocks? It's supposed to be an alternative money unit, right? Okay. >> Or at a minimum an alternative store value. >> Yeah. Yeah. Well, we'll find out. Uh we get to 60,000. I think uh the thought about talk about Bitcoin's future is going to be uh very subdued. Okay. >> Okay. All right. Well, Bitcoiners who are watching, I'm sorry we don't have more time to really dig into this and it's unfair for me to ask you these questions and not give you, you know, 30 minutes to really expound on them, Michael, but I appreciate you giving me the bullet points here, giving our users the bullet points here. Um all right, I got to start wrapping things up here, but I guess um kind of kind of wrapping up question here. So you see a rough couple years ahead, definitely a rough year in the markets ahead in 2026. You think that the monetary metals are actually going to do >> great. It sounds like sounds like you think the commodity complex, particularly energy, is going to do pretty well, too. >> It's another place to look at is the commodity related stocks. It's we didn't get on that, but it is a it is a good it won't match gold or silver, but it looks like a good safe place to be investing is in commodity or commodity based stocks, agricultural related base metals, etc. >> Okay. >> And in in addition to to those two sectors, are there any other asset classes or strategies going into 2026 that you are encouraging investors to consider materially right now? No, primarily uh the monetary metals and as a wave behind the monetary metals they don't always in sync by the way commodities don't always move with gold. I think they will coattail gold coattail behind it less performance but still be a safe place to be. They're vastly underpriced especially relative to the stock market and I think it's a place to be that is safe and it's real. You're standing on it. Yeah. >> It's not a theory. And I I know you don't love it because it's denominated in dollars and dollars are depreciating, but I imagine that you would say on a relative basis, T bills better place to be than just the general stock market or >> I have no interest in government debt at all. >> Okay. So, okay. >> Zero interest in government debt at all. Short end, long end, neither one. >> Okay. >> Well, I appreciate you calling it as you see it then. Um All right. Um well then um Michael, thank you and thank you for being so generous with your time here, but also with the specifics of your outlook. For folks that have really enjoyed this and would like to follow you and your work in between now and the next time you come on this channel, where should they go? >> Oliver MSA from Momentum Structural Analysis, oliversa.com. And uh take your time. We discuss our unorthodox methodology and request some sample reports. >> All right. Fantastic. And speaking of your reports, uh the one that we just looked at a couple of charts in, you've been kind enough to make available to uh the thoughtful money um uh Substack uh the premium Substack subscribers for our macro pass submission this week. So, thank you for doing that. So, if you're a if you are a current uh premium subscriber to our Substack, go check your email. That should be in your inbox at this point in time. Um all right, Michael. Well, look, a couple quick things. Um, first off, um, I got to do like 30 seconds of housekeeping here and then I want to give you the last word as we conclude. But folks, please join me in thanking Michael for coming on, especially during a holiday week, uh, for being so generous with his time and with his outlook. Um, so anyways, help me uh, demonstrate that appreciation to him by hitting the like button and then clicking on the subscribe button below as well as that little bell icon right next to it. Um, if you are, you know, a DIY advis DIY investor, which the surveys that I've had you all take here suggest that the majority of folks watching are, um, if you're looking for ways to, uh, get good information to help inform your investing decisions, then highly I highly recommend considering Michael's, um, service there. So, go go check him out at oliversa.com. And um Michael, when uh I edit this um I will have put up your um the website on the screen here so folks know where to go. Folks, that link will be in the description below this video as well. But if you're not a DIY uh investor, um if you're more like a regular person and you've got other things to focus on, uh then you probably want to get a really, you know, focus on getting a really good financial quarterback uh to be running your portfolio for you. And I highly recommend that you get that from a good professional financial adviser. but importantly one who takes into consideration the macro and market uh factors that Michael and I have talked about here. If you've got a good one who's doing that for you already, great. Don't mess with success. But if you don't, or you just like a second opinion from one uh that does meet that criteria, then I encourage you to consider scheduling a free consultation with one of the financial adviserss that Thoughtful Money endorses. These are the firms you see with me on this channel week in and week out. To talk with them for free, just fill out the very short form at thoughtfulmoney.com. And again, those discussions are totally free. There's no commitments involved to work with the firms. It's just a service they offer to be as helpful as they can to as many people as possible. Um, Michael, thanks so much for your patience there. So, yeah, the the people who you we've got some professional investors that watch this channel, but for the most part, they're regular people. They're people that have been working hard or have worked hard to build uh, you know, financial wealth to provide for their families. and they want to make sure first and foremost they don't get rugpulled by what might happen here in the markets and secondly if possible they want to position themselves prudently you know to benefit from some of these trends you've talked about. So do you have any parting bits of advice for those folks beyond just have a happy Thanksgiving? >> No just uh be willing to rethink your entire view of what is investment reality which you've been taught over the decades is got to be this or that 6040 etc. Uh there's bigger things going on this time. It's not just a normal quote market cycle. Uh so consider other asset categories that aren't normally on the front plate. >> Okay. I mean it sounds like you're also saying too like get educated like really really try to understand what's going on because it might be quite different than what what the history books of our life. >> This is this like the fourth turning you pointed out and so forth and we're fully in agreement with that. This is a lifetime event, not a 20-y year event. >> All right. Well, Michael, I can't thank you enough. And like I said, uh the door is open for you here in the future. So, I'll I'll be reaching out regularly, but as anything happens in between where you think, hey, I need to get the word out about this. Um please come on this channel and let this audience know about it. >> Thank you, Ed. >> All right. And look, Michael, have yourself a wonderful Thanksgiving. Everybody else, same wishes to you. Thanks so much for watching.