SCRAP My Call for $60 SILVER, We're Headed to $100+: Michael Oliver
Summary
Silver: Forecast lifted to $100–$200/oz within two quarters on momentum triggers and historic analogs, with the silver-gold spread near a breakout signaling explosive relative upside.
Silver Miners: Sector viewed as deeply undervalued “10 cents on the dollar” exposure; preference for broad baskets/ETFs like SIL as capital inflows could lift even lower-quality names.
Gold & Gold Miners: Gold pullback seen as a buy; spreads versus broad equity indices are breaking out, with miners (e.g., GDX) expected to outperform bullion and energy costs unlikely to impair margins.
Commodities Complex: Bloomberg Commodity Index signals a second-leg breakout, setting up a multi-year commodities uptrend with broad participation across energy, grains, and base metals.
Oil: Crude deemed cheap with producer valuations attractive; a monthly close ≥$68 this quarter (≈$65 next quarter) would confirm upside, and war headlines should not be chased.
Agriculture & Fertilizers: Grains (corn, wheat, soybeans) are turning up on momentum, positioning fertilizer stocks (potash, phosphate) to follow, in an overlooked and undervalued space.
Macro Outlook: U.S. equities are in a topping process with narrow leadership, Treasuries risk rolling over, and rotation into real assets is expected as gold and commodities gain favor.
Transcript
Hello everybody and welcome into commodity culture where we break down commodities markets, sound money, principles and geopolitics all with the goal of making you a better investor in the commodities sector. Today is November 5th, 2025 and I'm excited to welcome Michael Oliver to the program. A veteran of the commodities sector with five decades of experience, an expert in momentum based technical analysis, and the founder of momentum structural analysis, Michael has changed his view on the silver market and has scrapped his previous call of $60 to $70 for an updated forecast of $100 to $200 an ounce within the next two quarters. Michael breaks down his reasoning and the technical indicators that lead him to believe that the silver price, as he puts it, is about [music] to enter another reality. We also break down the gold market, precious metals, mining stocks, oil, agriculture, and so much more. So, strap yourselves in for my conversation with Michael Oliver. Michael Oliver, great to have you back on Commodity Culture. Last time I had you on the show was in August when silver was at around $37. You said that silver could run to $60 by year end. And we've certainly had a tremendous breakout since then with the metal reaching new nominal all-time highs of around $54 before correcting somewhat to around $48 where it sits today. Do you still think we could see $60 by year end? And what are your current overall thoughts on the silver market? uh my view of the 6070 range is gone. I no longer have that view. I now think you could go to 100 to 200 in the next couple quarters. Uh we've done a lot of technical rationale for that. It's not just a gut feeling. Okay. Uh but we've shown that if you look at silver on a chart, just an arithmetic chart, go back to 1975 when gold was legalized. Gold has had huge surge up, then a pullback and a range for a decade. Then another huge surge up and a new high or range for a decade plus. And now is into another surge, which is by the way only half as strong so far. measured logarithmic scale ratio scale to the prior two bull markets. If gold matched them, it'd be $8,500. Okay. But how come silver is stuck in this box for 50 years? I could we showed charts of of u copper and lead. Okay, real exciting stuff. Lead, you know, uh but in the 70s, 80s, 90s, and into 2000, they were stuck in a range sort of like silver. is now still stuck in. And in 2005 and six, copper quadrupled in about a couple quarters. It just left that old reality behind. And and then over the subsequent decades, a new range that if you divide the middle of that range it's been living in for the last 15 years or so, it's four times what it was between 1970 and 2005. Okay? How come silver's still stuck in that range? Then we look at lead and lead had the same situation for multiple decades. Caught it at a price range. Blew out of it in 2007. Not not in sync with copper on it own stuff. Quadrupled in price in a matter of a hand a couple quarters and then lived in a new reality. Way above that old reality. How come silver's here? Well, you know, there's some arguments that are likely valid that, you know, it's been artificially depressed, suppressed, etc. But whatever the reason, you can't fake reality forever. And if gold, the other monetary metal has gone from, you know, a peak in 198 1975 at 200, then in 1980 was 850, and now we're 4,000. And yet silver in 1980 was 50, and we're at 48. Okay, now something's wrong there. Forget any intricacies of special situations. What's going on? I mean, lead's four times its price. Then copper is the silver. You know what? Anyway, there's there's a point to be made there. Sometimes markets make mistakes. We know that, you know, we as as an investor, if you're long around long enough, you've seen bubble markets make a peak and when it falls apart, you look back and say, "Oh, golly, now I can see why it was irrational, too high for too long." Even if the concept underlying it was valid, it just went too far, too. And the same thing goes on the downside. You know, markets make mistakes on the downside. They get down too low, they lay there, nobody likes them. You know, they're not doing anything good. So, who's it going to invest in them? And then when they wake up, they wake up in a thunderbolt. The technicals of silver right now argue to us, now we've got one trigger level that we'll we'll talk about in a minute, that when it's triggered, we think over the following two quarters or so, in other words, you know, six months or so, silver could go to at least 100, more likely to 150 to 200. other words, you could quadruple its price in a matter of a couple quarters, doing the same thing that's been done in many other markets over the past 50 years here, there, you know, so forth. Um, and the technicals justify assuming that it's not just gut feel. Okay. And uh anyway, yeah, that's that's what we see. So the 6070, forget it. No, we don't believe that. Much higher. >> Very interesting. I want to talk about the silver mining sector as well because that experienced a tremendous run similar to the metal came crashing down a little bit harder when silver corrected. Year to date we reached as high as 140% on the SIL ETF before it came down to around 90% where it sits today. Is this just the natural process of profit taking after it had such a tremendous run? Do you think this is a buy the dip moment or do you think some more caution is warranted? >> My own personal investments which I have to disclaim at the end of all our our reports is you what do I own okay uh I'mo wholly emphasizing silver and silver related and I think some of the miners might be as much bang for the buck if not a lot more than what silver might do and the reason is they're still very lagged to the gold miners historically they're very lagged to almost any way you want to measure it to gold or the silver miners are the real dogs. The gold miners have gone up and you know notice GDX for example had a high in 2011 in the 60s. Well, when it went up to 80 bucks, okay, pullback and right now we're like 68 or 70. I think we're 70 area. Okay, so it had a pullback, but it burst through this at like a doubling in price in a matter of a handful of months just to get above the 2011 high, which as we know gold's way above that. It was $1,920. Okay. So, the gold miners said, "I'm here, too. I'm back." Okay. The silver miners aren't above that high. For SIL, for example, that high in 2011 was at 90. We didn't get there. I think we're going to get there and then some. I think it's again sort of the phenomenon. I'm talking about what I think silver is going to do. Technically, the silver miners perhaps should best be viewed not as minor by minor by minor analysis, but more as hey they got the stuff underground and it's not priced at even the per ounce level. Okay, you're you're in effect buying silver bullion at at 10 cents on the dollar. Okay, by buying the mines and I think that acknowledgement will come when silver runs its tantrum move. It goes to the new reality. [clears throat] And I think at that point you you want to be long silver uh perhaps if you want to silver calls that go out a year let's say u and the silver miners as opposed to gold and the gold miners which will also be going up but less so. So I think it's it's the focus now should be on the silver component of the monetary metals. And I know you don't discuss stock picks or anything like that in your newsletter, but when you're approaching the silver mining space, do you look more to the ETFs as the way to play silver miners or do you venture into individual mining stocks as well? >> I I've gone into some handful of individuals, [clears throat] but basically I think the thing rather than being specific and relying on some analyst's analysis of this minor or that minor, this one's a dog, that one's good. Uh, I think you could throw darts. I think the whole pack of them is going to go up because the power that will drive them isn't going to be what's the profitability of this company versus that. >> It's basically my god an underpriced category and money will just flow into it and it'll even garbage stocks will go up. Okay, you get my point. >> Yeah. >> Uh, that's the kind of phenomenon I'm talking about. >> Well, let's shift over to the gold sector. Obviously a very similar story to silver getting up to nearly 4,300 before correcting. We're at 3,990 approximately as we speak. Did gold run too far too fast in your view? Do you expect us to consolidate for a while here, fall further, or rally to new all-time highs by the end of this year? Let's look at that time frame. >> I think the pullback you just saw as a buying opportunity. Uh we've [clears throat] again when you put it in perspective of what has gold done since the government legalized it. Well, you know it it had a bare market low in 1976 after hitting 200 and when it was legalized it dropped to 103 $103 mid76. Between mid76 and 1980 three and a half years it went up eightfold. And the conditions that drove that we argue are far less dynamic than the ones we're sitting on right now. Okay. Two, the next bull market started in 2001 from a $260 low and went to 1920. Eight-fold move. Spann. Okay, we're only four-fold off the bare low. $1,50 in 2015. So people say, "Oh, it's overdone. It's overdone." There's a there's another argument that it's just beginning and it's the first charts I sent you. The first chart shows a spread relationship between an ounce of gold and the price of the S&P 500. It goes back to 2013. Remember gold peaked at 11 and 2011 12 13 especially has entered a bare market which didn't bottom till 2015. Okay, end of that year during that time it was underperforming the S&P 500. The spread was collapsing along with the net price of gold. But then in the 11 years since that there during an 11-year period of that basing process, there have been four rally highs in the spread. Meaning gold has had a rally versus the S&P relative performance-wise. And each of those rallies, by the way, was actually strong upside in gold net price. But there's a clear base that a kid with a crayon could draw a line across. Four separate peaks that are almost flat. You're pushing at that line. Now, again, right now, the spread between gold and the S&P is 58.6%. Other gold, dold, using D's front future S&P. If you ever close a month at 60%. And we were intrammon above that last month. You ever close a month out at 60% on that spread? That spread breaks out of an 11-year relative performance base. It says I'm just beginning. Again, when the spread moves up, net price of gold's moving up. So that chart says as an asset class choice, stock market or gold, it's breaking. it'll break out versus the S&P and saying it's just beginning. And then it's not broken out yet versus the S&P. But we also ran the spread of gold versus the New York composite index which is doesn't have a front-end weighting of five stocks that constitute 30% of the overall index like S&P or five stocks in the NASDAQ 100 that constitute 50% of that index. Okay. I measured it against the New York composite and the Dow 30 same time span 2013 depress they've broken out already. Gold has broken out versus those two unfront loaded indexes of the US stock market. The only thing that's kept it from breaking out against the S&P is again handful of those front-end stocks. That's it. That's the only thing is the broad market really has been broke. Gold's broken out. It says the game has just begun. I'm now a better place to be than the stock market. The sponsor of today's episode is Arc Silver Gold Osmium. Owner Ian Everard is praised even by his competitors as one of the most honest and level-headed bullion dealers in the United States. [music] They have some great prices. You can see some of them displayed right now on screen. can take advantage of these specials today by reaching out to Ian at 3072649441 [music] or by email at ianarchsggo.com. Make sure to tell them of course that commodity culture sent you. And now back to the interview. Well, I want to touch on the broad market a little bit more in a moment, but first I want to talk about the gold mining space. Is this much similar to the silver miners in your view? Because at nearly $4,000 gold here, the producers are printing cash. the fundamentals behind the sector continue to look incredibly strong. Is this just a pause before we continue higher? And one quick follow-up question I want to throw in there is the oil price because energy is such a big input cost into mining oil now uh quite low around $60 WTI. If we saw oil spike massively, could that be a fly in the ointment for some of these gold producers? >> Okay, first off, the gold pullback I think is basically you've seen it. Okay, it's an issue now of finding some short-term technicals which we do monitor things like week-toeek momentum and so forth. Uh we don't just look at price prices everybody looks at price. We look at momentum of price primarily and it's what told us for example back in May and June when silver was coming up for a third time toward $35. It had stopped it since October of 23. No, May of 20 uh 2020. No, May of 2024, hit uh 35. March of 25 hit 35. And it came back up again. Third time. We got up above 34. We said, "This is it. You're going to blow your cork. Going to start accelerating price." Well, sure enough, push matter of a couple months, you're up to 53. Okay, that's just the beginning. As far as the issue the gold miners the gold miners in relative performance terms when you plot a spread chart like we were talking about gold S&P when you plot let's say XAU index versus gold or GDX versus gold go back a decade plus or more especially on the XAU you could see they're extremely cheap historically speaking to where their valuation has been for the last you know 50 years okay and they have the technical dynamics also of breaking out on the spread chart favoring the miners versus gold. So yes, I would argue at this point watch gold but preference the miners and if you don't want to pick them out just do an ETF or buy a basket. U the gold miners should do much better than gold. Not as good as silver but much better than gold. Um as issue of oil it's a falsehood. We ran a study on that uh couple months ago showing periods of time where uh gold miners and oil moved and you can see that just the price chart comparison and you'd have some dynamic up moves in oil and it wouldn't at all damage the gold miners. In fact, quite often it was in sync with a rising oil price. meaning that yeah, it's a cost factor and it's their major cost factor, but it doesn't compare to the profitability of the rapid per ounce profility of gold. You know, it used to be 1,500, 2,000, now it's 4,000. Gee, we're talking a year or so. You know, uh it goes to eight. All these cost factors become unimportant relatively speaking. It's the per ounce that matters. And so, I would not be fearful. In fact, right now it's our assumption based on technical action of the Bloomberg commodity index that the commodities are about to upturn for a second advance like they had between late 2020 in 2022 in a nice surge. Commodities are still dirt cheap. Uh and we could talk about that later, but right now no, oil is not going to be a negative in any way in terms of retarding their price advance of the miners. Well, in a recent report from Momentum Structural Analysis, you provided an assessment of the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ. There's been a lineup of guests down the block on this show since I started interviewing people around 3 years ago, stating the market's going to melt down. We're in the mother of all bubbles. This will be worse than 2008. You've seen all the headlines. They're out there every day. But here we are close to all-time highs. Once again, help us make sense of all this because I know overall in the long term you're you're bearish on on the uh the broad market. to break that down for us. >> Well, when we got bearish in January of 2000.com top, we had many doubters among our subscribers because it wouldn't go down. In fact, it made a higher high in March of 2000 after we said get out and it made a new high monthly close in August of 2000, but they were like, you know, small double digits above the level we said be gone from this category. Okay. But it took a whole year of this teasing firmness. Not a not a lot not a lot of firmness. Like the S&P right now is 10% above its prior high of January. Some indexes made their high in in late last year price highs. Uh and there and some of them are now back below that. For instance, the financial sectors has dropped back below what had been its prior high that it broke out of in sympathy with the S&P move. something's going on there. You got to watch the sectors because they ain't doing what the S&P is doing, meaning very limited symbols. Um, so it's an arduous process. Same happened in 2007. Uh, you hit a high in early, it was I think March, April of 2007 at 1550 S&P that happened to be the price high of the year 2000. 1550, couple points above there. And they sold into it in 2007. and dropped it hard into the summer and we were arguing you're in a topping process and sure enough it came back up one more time in September and October Fed cut rates first time in a while and market partied oh boy and blew through the double top at 1550 2000 high 2007 high and got up to 1575 which was actually right in the middle of our target zone 1550 to600 that we put out a year before and they broke out. So if you're looking at a price chart, you had a triple top breakout. That was the top. Okay? So don't be teased by a market going through a new high. Momentum of the S&P has broken major structure. And the rally since then to a new high on momentum. It's up under well below the high we made early this year and underneath a broken trend structure that goes back to 2022. So, momentum says, "No, you're no good." Price says, "Look at me. I'm a champion." Uh, I trust the momentum. I think we're in a topping process. US dollar uh showing some strength here. An asset that's been rising lately in terms of RSI looking fairly overbought. I know you're uh you don't look too much at RSI compared to a lot of other technical analysts, but we hear so much from the fundamental side about currency debasement, nations divesting themselves of the dollar, the BRICS nations, trading in gold, uh starting to conduct trade using gold, circumventing the dollar, etc. But from a technical and momentum based standpoint, is the dollar really in as much trouble as the hardcore gold bugs would have us believe? >> Yeah, I think it's in trouble. Uh I think it's not in speedy trouble. And frankly, the correlation, for example, between the dollar index and moves in gold is very pathetic. It's not good. It's not inverse. Uh people think, oh, if the dollar goes up, gold goes down. No, it's not true. In fact, if you go back to the bare low in gold 2015, gold price was a,50. Okay? If you go back to where dollar index was then, which happened to be a high was at 98 area. dollar index. [clears throat] Right now, dollar index is has been either side of 98 for about five months. Okay? So, it's where it was 10 years ago. Dollar index. And yet, gold is where 4,000 bucks. Okay? You know, it was 1,500. So, you would have missed the entire gold bull move had you looked at the dollar index and said, I'm going to buy gold only if the dollar weakens. What happened in March of this year on the dollar? It slipped down from like 110 to 104 and in March we said we're bearish. Since dropped under 100 and has flip-flopped back above 100, back down, back up, going nowhere effectively since actually since the April low. So people say, "Oh, the dollar's up." No, since April low, you can draw a sideways line. It's doing nothing. It's just spinning its wheels. And we think it is momentum broken. and highly likely the next major move is is down and it's already in process starting back in March. Um but again, we don't focus too much on it because it doesn't really impact the core markets that we're looking at. People assume there's a correlation, but it's not true. >> When it comes to the overall commodities complex, you alluded to it earlier. you uh think that it could be a major investment arena for the next decade. I want to read a quote from one of your recent reports. You said perhaps the world is now at a point where an awakening will occur if the paper asset bubbles burst and start to inflict pain. Investors might cultivate a renewed appreciation for everyday realworld assets. So, walk us through your thought process there and the technical indicators that lead you to believe we could be on the verge of a major breakout in the commodity sector. >> The Bloomberg commodity index. Now, I know we a year ago said, "Oh, inflation's terrible." Well, commodity inflation isn't. Okay, we had a run in the Bloomberg from a low that bare market low that occurred in 2020, mid mid year, it had gone down from 2011 to 2020. Uh, and its old highs, if you look at Bloomberg, go back to 2008 peak, it was 238. a 2011 peak it was 170. You know where it is right now? 107. Okay. So, it's it's half the price of its prior bull market peaks. We did have a sharp run up from that low in summer of last year uh 2020. And it ran for a year and a half up until the war began in Ukraine. That's when it basically peaked three weeks later. The commodity complex, it didn't run up because of the war. It it stopped when the war began actually and then pulled back to a 100 area again. Its low was under 60 in 2020. So it had about a 50% pullback from that first surge where it went from under 60 to 140 and then pulled back to 100. Two and a half years it's gone dead sideways. The commodity complex almost no volatility, no dimension in price. So it's steady just saying I'm not going back to that low again. I'm too cheap. Okay. Again 107 compared to the 2008 high at 238. Okay. We look at each commodity within the Bloomberg and some of them have broken out, some haven't. But the Bloomberg itself broke out last month via our annual momentum metrics that say, okay, the first leg we saw in 2022, then the pullback, we're now going to start a second leg. Okay. And we see evidence within the complex when we examine like the energy sector, the grains, the base metals that yeah, they're all ready to participate. Oil happens to be a lagard this time. It's not not a leader. It was tended to lead that last rally, but this time it's going to be a lagard, but still join in, I think. So, yeah, I think the Bloomberg commodity complex is ready to turn up again. But when you put it in a real long-term context, measure it versus the S&P like the spreadsheet I I sent you, you can see that where the Bloomberg was beating the S&P up through the 2008 period and then it made a topping process. You can see it on the spread chart. treated as just a price chart and when it broke down it collapsed in value to levels that are almost unbelievable in terms of the relative value collapse we've seen in call it real world assets compared to paper bubble assets. Okay. So even if you just look at that chart and you believe in the notion buy low as an investor think long term buy low don't buy high don't chase things. It's saying, "Hey, watch me because I'm cheap." And it's not really been going much lower since 2020 marginally. But so Bloomberg really ceased its decline five years ago and has been waffling around in a basing type pattern relative to the S&P. It's not going to take much. If the Bloomberg starts to move up now, as we argue it's likely to, and if the S&P starts to weaken, then that spread's going to break out again. And when it does, I'm going to bet that you you could invest in the commodity category, grain area, stocks related to agriculture, oil area, stocks related to oil, etc., etc., base metal miners. And over the next 10 years, you do quite well and beat the heck out of the stock market. And so it looks like a major investment type situation. I don't think it's going to beat gold, certainly not silver in terms of percent gain, but it's a place to be and you need to watch it closely because it won't take much signal to generate that shift in the asset categories. I want to hone in on oil for a moment because from my perspective, it looks like an extraordinarily attractive value proposition at present. It's extremely hated. People have written it off. All sorts of people come on this show saying it's going to $30. we're going to see a worldwide recession. It's going to totally crush oil prices. But when you look at the moment, some of these big, even big oil producers are trading at extremely attractive valuations. They're paying down all their debt. They're paying generous dividends. They're buying back shares. And I think at this point with a lot of the break even cost of of production and even in many areas of the Peran Basin being at the 50ish for the bigger producers, obviously it's lower. We're looking at a setup where the oil price has to go higher in my view from a fundamental perspective. How are you viewing the oil sector um at momentum structural analysis? >> Yeah, your observations are dead on accurate. Uh it is cheap. Okay. Going to 30s. Anyway, uh when you look at the historic price levels of oil, go back a decade, 15 years, where you are now is low. It's very low. Okay. Yes. So, you know, compare it to the S&P, compare it to itself, compare it to itself. It's cheap. Okay. The technicals of oil, we we measure the momentum factors, not just the price. 60 is at the low end of the range of the last handful of years. Okay? It's been in the 50s so forth. But, you know, basically that's where it's that's been cheap for years now. It just doesn't want to go down from there and sustain. Uh it keeps trying to rally and then fails. However, now if during this quarter you see a monthly close on the front month contract of crude WTI at 68. Now admittedly we're 6061 area. It's the way to go. But couple months ago when that Iran event occurred they shot it up into the upper 70s. Lesson there is don't buy war news. It never works. Okay. But if you get to 68 during this quarter, that momentum, long-term momentum of crude oil says I'm coming out of here. Okay? Now, when we get into next quarter, okay, you know, less than two months away now, that number is going to drop even further, probably down to 65 area. And so, if you get oil up to that level on a price chart, it doesn't say a lot, but a momentum says, "No, I'm out of here." And and at that point, I don't know what the reason would be. I'm not trying to argue fundamentals, but all the expectations of, you know, Trump's going to keep it down and all this stuff will go out the window. And I suspect by the Bloomberg breaking out now is oil tends to move with the Bloomberg. You could treat it as a separate entity, but if the Bloomberg's going up, you can bet oil, it may be lag this time, but I'll bet it goes up with it. >> And fertilizer stocks, pot ash, phosphate. Um, this is the part of the show where I get to talk about to to talk to you for my own selfish reasons. Oil and and uh fertilizer stocks are two of the areas that I'm most interested in at present because once again, valuation seem extremely depressed. Unlike oil, which is hated, fertilizer stocks, pot ash, phosphate, it's just ignored. Nobody even discusses it. There's no there's no fertilizer Twitter, you know, there's nobody talking about it at all. And once again, similar situation. in so many of these companies extraordinarily depressed uh prices extremely attractive valuations it's a very similar story how do you see um the the the pot ash and phosphate producers and just the overall agriculture complex performing >> they will go with the with the grains which are turning up they've been hit very hard after that rally to 2022 but our momentum metrics of corn weed and soybeans are all either positive or about to become positive so there's like vocal. There's a chorus of three there. Okay. And they all look like one, they're not going lower. The only issue is when do they turn up and we defined a level where they turn up. I think two of them have actually done so. Uh corn's a lagard right now, but uh I haven't looked at it lately. may not be but uh we they crossed enough numbers to indicate okay what you've seen for the last year or so this basing action is over going up and sure enough yeah the a related stocks will go with them and again the point I made about Bloomberg as a relative asset category meaning the world is obsessed right now with with things that aren't quote real you know they're sort of like Bitcoin you know what is it Okay. Uh and real world assets, it's like we don't live on Earth anymore. Doesn't matter. You know, we're ethereal. Uh when that stock market breaks, and again, right now we're talking about, you know, five or six stocks really because some of the other indexes are back. Some of them are unchanged on the year. Okay. Uh when that breaks, it causes thought processes to change. It causes emotion. And when people get emotional sometimes they, you know, they they seek some other place to go. They don't, the money doesn't just burn up. Then when the stock market goes down, it goes somewhere else, too. And the Fed will print a lot. Don't don't worry about that. Uh the A area looks like an area where for the next decade plus, maybe humankind is going to shift their attention to a vastly underpriced part of reality. Uh, and I it'll be reflected in the we we run the fertilizer stocks about monthly. My my son Brett updates them and uh they're reflective of the grain complex and the Bloomberg. So, expect the whole thing to go up, even the price of cow Okay? I don't [snorts] know if they commoditized that or not, but if if you did, I bet you could invest in that and beat the S&P. [laughter] Well, let's let's end on any other areas of the market that we haven't yet covered that you think present an attractive value proposition at present and maybe any areas, you know, aside from the broad market, any areas that you'd be staying away from right now that you think are too overvalued. >> Yeah. Now, there's the one thing I forgot to talk about was the silver gold relationship. >> Okay. >> I argued that silver is going to explode, but there is a you can maintain a spread chart where you divide an ounce of silver into an ounce of gold, express it as a percent. A lot of people do it the other way. It's a ratio chart, but we do it ounce of silver to gold. And right now, silver price is about 1.2% of the price of gold. Okay? If you go back and examine what happened in those two prior bull markets at the phase where silver went ballistic, we had been going up for a couple years, 75, 76, 77, 78, 80. finally. In the last 6 months of that move, silver went quadrupled in price. It had already been in a bull. It wasn't like it wasn't a bull. Then it just said, "I'm gone." Okay. And in 2010, September of 2010, 6 months before silver reached 50 again in April 2011, it doubled in a half in in six months. Okay. Uh, you want to quadruple silver from where it is now, you're talking 200. Okay? You want to double and a half, where you're talking, you know, 125, whatever. Okay? What was a signal back then that that event was going to occur? Because when you looked at the price charts, they were already going up. So, it wasn't a big deal that they just went up faster. Okay? So, the price charts weren't telling you. You'd already been in a bull trend. the spread, divide the ounce of silver into an ounce of gold and plot it monthto month. And sure enough, back then, even while silver had been going up for a couple years along with gold, 76, 77, 78, 79, okay, it was going up less and therefore the spread was deteriorating. Silver was underperforming the advance in gold. So, it looked negative on a spread chart. It was still making money, but wasn't as much as gold. The spread built a structure and it ran up to a level, pulled back, ran up to another level a year later, pulled back. And when it came through that level, the spread broke out and that told you silver's now going to beat gold. That's what set off the the fuse. Same thing happened in 2010. You'd had a depressed action by silver to gold. It built a spread dynamic that you could you could see draw a ruler across it and in September 2010 you broke out and that's when the price of silver went ape. We have a very similar situation on the chart I sent you. There's two charts there. One is the spread chart at the top and you can see there's a red horizontal line on it comes through at just above 1.3%. Again, we're right now at 1.2%. You ever get a monthly close above 1.31%. Actually, it's where those precise two prior highs were going back four years. That breaks out and it says, "I'm out of here." And you're still at very cheap historic values of silver to gold. Heck, 20 of the past 50 years, silver's at least been 2% price of gold. Well, heck, if you go from 1.2 to two, that's a huge multiple. I mean, silver is almost doubling in value to gold. And in bull markets going back 50 years during the 7980 move and the 201011 surge silver reached well over 3%. So from 1.2 to well wow okay huge potential multiple. The key is to break that spread out. Now the chart below the spread, pardon me for getting scientific here, is a is a momentum of the ch of the spread where we measure the spread in relation oscillated versus its 10-month average. And you should have the same picture, dual highs. You want to break through them. Well, heck, last September, we closed on the line and back up ever so slightly into October. It won't take a hair's breath to break out the momentum above its ceiling. And when it does, you can bet that the spread will follow. So those are the metrics we're watching that tell us the clock has begun. The clock for the go into a new reality. So that's what we're focused on now. Gold's already outpaced the stock market except for the S&P. Uh and it's ready to do that. But when silver breaks off versus gold, it's telling you it just began. You haven't gone ape yet. Everybody thinks it's gone crazy. No, it hasn't. has even begun. So that's a technical we're looking at. >> And then final question, other areas of the market that you're watching right now that you think could present some value. >> Bloomberg. Bloomberg is an area to watch as a lagger to gold. It it sometimes is out of sync. Commodities don't always move with gold. Gold double from 15 to 2020. Bloomberg went down, but Bloomberg now looks like it's ready to get on the coattails. And I think that's partly going to be asset class movement out of a bubble stock market into other places that are perceived to be more riskreward ratio. Uh one area that is not helping as an alternative is the T-bond market and it's frankly at a position now where it could suddenly be a headline maker if it drops too much. We've already dropped a couple points from a high this week, but it after its crash in effect from 2020 through 2021, it dropped from like 190 down to 100 almost. Price T-bond futures yield went up a lot. It hasn't been able to get off the ground. It's just gone this way for multiple years. Trying to rally, trying to r it can't seem to get going. And right now, it's technically ripe to roll over again, meaning higher yields. That's just what the stock market doesn't want to hear. But it means that the alternative category 6040, you know, stock market bonds ain't working. It's not going to be an alternative. Well, heck, if you don't have an alternative in T- bonds, what do you do? Gold and related commodities. Big change coming. >> Well, Michael, this has been a fantastic conversation as always. Tell us about momentum structural analysis. Well, you you get about five reports a week, including a very long weekend report. We look at all four major asset categories, debt markets, foreign exchange, stock markets, not just ours, and commodities with an emphasis on gold and silver. So, you get a a widescreen perspective. You don't just look at gold and see what it's doing. You need to look around, you know. Uh anyway, uh I think that what you're going to see over the next year is going to be very dynamic in a lot of markets and particularly in once that silver spread breaks out, it's going to get very dynamic almost immediately. So, seat belt time. >> Seat belt time. I love it. I'll put a link in the description below to Momentum Structural Analysis so people can check that out. Thank you once again, Michael, for coming back on the show. It was a blast. >> Thank you, Jesse. Thank you. >> Thank you for joining us today. Our sponsor Arc Silver Gold Opsium has some great prices on gold and silver bullion. They are on your screen right now. These are all while supplies last. So, make sure to reach out to owner Ian Everard today at 3072649441 or by email at ianarchsggo.com and make sure to tell him that Commodity Culture sent you. And pick up your Commodity Culture merch using the link in the description below. everything backed by a 100% quality guarantee. And I'll see you guys in the next episode. Commodity Culture is a series on commodities and natural resources. If you would like to see more, be sure to subscribe and hit the bell notification so you're always up tod date with the latest episodes.
SCRAP My Call for $60 SILVER, We're Headed to $100+: Michael Oliver
Summary
Transcript
Hello everybody and welcome into commodity culture where we break down commodities markets, sound money, principles and geopolitics all with the goal of making you a better investor in the commodities sector. Today is November 5th, 2025 and I'm excited to welcome Michael Oliver to the program. A veteran of the commodities sector with five decades of experience, an expert in momentum based technical analysis, and the founder of momentum structural analysis, Michael has changed his view on the silver market and has scrapped his previous call of $60 to $70 for an updated forecast of $100 to $200 an ounce within the next two quarters. Michael breaks down his reasoning and the technical indicators that lead him to believe that the silver price, as he puts it, is about [music] to enter another reality. We also break down the gold market, precious metals, mining stocks, oil, agriculture, and so much more. So, strap yourselves in for my conversation with Michael Oliver. Michael Oliver, great to have you back on Commodity Culture. Last time I had you on the show was in August when silver was at around $37. You said that silver could run to $60 by year end. And we've certainly had a tremendous breakout since then with the metal reaching new nominal all-time highs of around $54 before correcting somewhat to around $48 where it sits today. Do you still think we could see $60 by year end? And what are your current overall thoughts on the silver market? uh my view of the 6070 range is gone. I no longer have that view. I now think you could go to 100 to 200 in the next couple quarters. Uh we've done a lot of technical rationale for that. It's not just a gut feeling. Okay. Uh but we've shown that if you look at silver on a chart, just an arithmetic chart, go back to 1975 when gold was legalized. Gold has had huge surge up, then a pullback and a range for a decade. Then another huge surge up and a new high or range for a decade plus. And now is into another surge, which is by the way only half as strong so far. measured logarithmic scale ratio scale to the prior two bull markets. If gold matched them, it'd be $8,500. Okay. But how come silver is stuck in this box for 50 years? I could we showed charts of of u copper and lead. Okay, real exciting stuff. Lead, you know, uh but in the 70s, 80s, 90s, and into 2000, they were stuck in a range sort of like silver. is now still stuck in. And in 2005 and six, copper quadrupled in about a couple quarters. It just left that old reality behind. And and then over the subsequent decades, a new range that if you divide the middle of that range it's been living in for the last 15 years or so, it's four times what it was between 1970 and 2005. Okay? How come silver's still stuck in that range? Then we look at lead and lead had the same situation for multiple decades. Caught it at a price range. Blew out of it in 2007. Not not in sync with copper on it own stuff. Quadrupled in price in a matter of a hand a couple quarters and then lived in a new reality. Way above that old reality. How come silver's here? Well, you know, there's some arguments that are likely valid that, you know, it's been artificially depressed, suppressed, etc. But whatever the reason, you can't fake reality forever. And if gold, the other monetary metal has gone from, you know, a peak in 198 1975 at 200, then in 1980 was 850, and now we're 4,000. And yet silver in 1980 was 50, and we're at 48. Okay, now something's wrong there. Forget any intricacies of special situations. What's going on? I mean, lead's four times its price. Then copper is the silver. You know what? Anyway, there's there's a point to be made there. Sometimes markets make mistakes. We know that, you know, we as as an investor, if you're long around long enough, you've seen bubble markets make a peak and when it falls apart, you look back and say, "Oh, golly, now I can see why it was irrational, too high for too long." Even if the concept underlying it was valid, it just went too far, too. And the same thing goes on the downside. You know, markets make mistakes on the downside. They get down too low, they lay there, nobody likes them. You know, they're not doing anything good. So, who's it going to invest in them? And then when they wake up, they wake up in a thunderbolt. The technicals of silver right now argue to us, now we've got one trigger level that we'll we'll talk about in a minute, that when it's triggered, we think over the following two quarters or so, in other words, you know, six months or so, silver could go to at least 100, more likely to 150 to 200. other words, you could quadruple its price in a matter of a couple quarters, doing the same thing that's been done in many other markets over the past 50 years here, there, you know, so forth. Um, and the technicals justify assuming that it's not just gut feel. Okay. And uh anyway, yeah, that's that's what we see. So the 6070, forget it. No, we don't believe that. Much higher. >> Very interesting. I want to talk about the silver mining sector as well because that experienced a tremendous run similar to the metal came crashing down a little bit harder when silver corrected. Year to date we reached as high as 140% on the SIL ETF before it came down to around 90% where it sits today. Is this just the natural process of profit taking after it had such a tremendous run? Do you think this is a buy the dip moment or do you think some more caution is warranted? >> My own personal investments which I have to disclaim at the end of all our our reports is you what do I own okay uh I'mo wholly emphasizing silver and silver related and I think some of the miners might be as much bang for the buck if not a lot more than what silver might do and the reason is they're still very lagged to the gold miners historically they're very lagged to almost any way you want to measure it to gold or the silver miners are the real dogs. The gold miners have gone up and you know notice GDX for example had a high in 2011 in the 60s. Well, when it went up to 80 bucks, okay, pullback and right now we're like 68 or 70. I think we're 70 area. Okay, so it had a pullback, but it burst through this at like a doubling in price in a matter of a handful of months just to get above the 2011 high, which as we know gold's way above that. It was $1,920. Okay. So, the gold miners said, "I'm here, too. I'm back." Okay. The silver miners aren't above that high. For SIL, for example, that high in 2011 was at 90. We didn't get there. I think we're going to get there and then some. I think it's again sort of the phenomenon. I'm talking about what I think silver is going to do. Technically, the silver miners perhaps should best be viewed not as minor by minor by minor analysis, but more as hey they got the stuff underground and it's not priced at even the per ounce level. Okay, you're you're in effect buying silver bullion at at 10 cents on the dollar. Okay, by buying the mines and I think that acknowledgement will come when silver runs its tantrum move. It goes to the new reality. [clears throat] And I think at that point you you want to be long silver uh perhaps if you want to silver calls that go out a year let's say u and the silver miners as opposed to gold and the gold miners which will also be going up but less so. So I think it's it's the focus now should be on the silver component of the monetary metals. And I know you don't discuss stock picks or anything like that in your newsletter, but when you're approaching the silver mining space, do you look more to the ETFs as the way to play silver miners or do you venture into individual mining stocks as well? >> I I've gone into some handful of individuals, [clears throat] but basically I think the thing rather than being specific and relying on some analyst's analysis of this minor or that minor, this one's a dog, that one's good. Uh, I think you could throw darts. I think the whole pack of them is going to go up because the power that will drive them isn't going to be what's the profitability of this company versus that. >> It's basically my god an underpriced category and money will just flow into it and it'll even garbage stocks will go up. Okay, you get my point. >> Yeah. >> Uh, that's the kind of phenomenon I'm talking about. >> Well, let's shift over to the gold sector. Obviously a very similar story to silver getting up to nearly 4,300 before correcting. We're at 3,990 approximately as we speak. Did gold run too far too fast in your view? Do you expect us to consolidate for a while here, fall further, or rally to new all-time highs by the end of this year? Let's look at that time frame. >> I think the pullback you just saw as a buying opportunity. Uh we've [clears throat] again when you put it in perspective of what has gold done since the government legalized it. Well, you know it it had a bare market low in 1976 after hitting 200 and when it was legalized it dropped to 103 $103 mid76. Between mid76 and 1980 three and a half years it went up eightfold. And the conditions that drove that we argue are far less dynamic than the ones we're sitting on right now. Okay. Two, the next bull market started in 2001 from a $260 low and went to 1920. Eight-fold move. Spann. Okay, we're only four-fold off the bare low. $1,50 in 2015. So people say, "Oh, it's overdone. It's overdone." There's a there's another argument that it's just beginning and it's the first charts I sent you. The first chart shows a spread relationship between an ounce of gold and the price of the S&P 500. It goes back to 2013. Remember gold peaked at 11 and 2011 12 13 especially has entered a bare market which didn't bottom till 2015. Okay, end of that year during that time it was underperforming the S&P 500. The spread was collapsing along with the net price of gold. But then in the 11 years since that there during an 11-year period of that basing process, there have been four rally highs in the spread. Meaning gold has had a rally versus the S&P relative performance-wise. And each of those rallies, by the way, was actually strong upside in gold net price. But there's a clear base that a kid with a crayon could draw a line across. Four separate peaks that are almost flat. You're pushing at that line. Now, again, right now, the spread between gold and the S&P is 58.6%. Other gold, dold, using D's front future S&P. If you ever close a month at 60%. And we were intrammon above that last month. You ever close a month out at 60% on that spread? That spread breaks out of an 11-year relative performance base. It says I'm just beginning. Again, when the spread moves up, net price of gold's moving up. So that chart says as an asset class choice, stock market or gold, it's breaking. it'll break out versus the S&P and saying it's just beginning. And then it's not broken out yet versus the S&P. But we also ran the spread of gold versus the New York composite index which is doesn't have a front-end weighting of five stocks that constitute 30% of the overall index like S&P or five stocks in the NASDAQ 100 that constitute 50% of that index. Okay. I measured it against the New York composite and the Dow 30 same time span 2013 depress they've broken out already. Gold has broken out versus those two unfront loaded indexes of the US stock market. The only thing that's kept it from breaking out against the S&P is again handful of those front-end stocks. That's it. That's the only thing is the broad market really has been broke. Gold's broken out. It says the game has just begun. I'm now a better place to be than the stock market. The sponsor of today's episode is Arc Silver Gold Osmium. Owner Ian Everard is praised even by his competitors as one of the most honest and level-headed bullion dealers in the United States. [music] They have some great prices. You can see some of them displayed right now on screen. can take advantage of these specials today by reaching out to Ian at 3072649441 [music] or by email at ianarchsggo.com. Make sure to tell them of course that commodity culture sent you. And now back to the interview. Well, I want to touch on the broad market a little bit more in a moment, but first I want to talk about the gold mining space. Is this much similar to the silver miners in your view? Because at nearly $4,000 gold here, the producers are printing cash. the fundamentals behind the sector continue to look incredibly strong. Is this just a pause before we continue higher? And one quick follow-up question I want to throw in there is the oil price because energy is such a big input cost into mining oil now uh quite low around $60 WTI. If we saw oil spike massively, could that be a fly in the ointment for some of these gold producers? >> Okay, first off, the gold pullback I think is basically you've seen it. Okay, it's an issue now of finding some short-term technicals which we do monitor things like week-toeek momentum and so forth. Uh we don't just look at price prices everybody looks at price. We look at momentum of price primarily and it's what told us for example back in May and June when silver was coming up for a third time toward $35. It had stopped it since October of 23. No, May of 20 uh 2020. No, May of 2024, hit uh 35. March of 25 hit 35. And it came back up again. Third time. We got up above 34. We said, "This is it. You're going to blow your cork. Going to start accelerating price." Well, sure enough, push matter of a couple months, you're up to 53. Okay, that's just the beginning. As far as the issue the gold miners the gold miners in relative performance terms when you plot a spread chart like we were talking about gold S&P when you plot let's say XAU index versus gold or GDX versus gold go back a decade plus or more especially on the XAU you could see they're extremely cheap historically speaking to where their valuation has been for the last you know 50 years okay and they have the technical dynamics also of breaking out on the spread chart favoring the miners versus gold. So yes, I would argue at this point watch gold but preference the miners and if you don't want to pick them out just do an ETF or buy a basket. U the gold miners should do much better than gold. Not as good as silver but much better than gold. Um as issue of oil it's a falsehood. We ran a study on that uh couple months ago showing periods of time where uh gold miners and oil moved and you can see that just the price chart comparison and you'd have some dynamic up moves in oil and it wouldn't at all damage the gold miners. In fact, quite often it was in sync with a rising oil price. meaning that yeah, it's a cost factor and it's their major cost factor, but it doesn't compare to the profitability of the rapid per ounce profility of gold. You know, it used to be 1,500, 2,000, now it's 4,000. Gee, we're talking a year or so. You know, uh it goes to eight. All these cost factors become unimportant relatively speaking. It's the per ounce that matters. And so, I would not be fearful. In fact, right now it's our assumption based on technical action of the Bloomberg commodity index that the commodities are about to upturn for a second advance like they had between late 2020 in 2022 in a nice surge. Commodities are still dirt cheap. Uh and we could talk about that later, but right now no, oil is not going to be a negative in any way in terms of retarding their price advance of the miners. Well, in a recent report from Momentum Structural Analysis, you provided an assessment of the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ. There's been a lineup of guests down the block on this show since I started interviewing people around 3 years ago, stating the market's going to melt down. We're in the mother of all bubbles. This will be worse than 2008. You've seen all the headlines. They're out there every day. But here we are close to all-time highs. Once again, help us make sense of all this because I know overall in the long term you're you're bearish on on the uh the broad market. to break that down for us. >> Well, when we got bearish in January of 2000.com top, we had many doubters among our subscribers because it wouldn't go down. In fact, it made a higher high in March of 2000 after we said get out and it made a new high monthly close in August of 2000, but they were like, you know, small double digits above the level we said be gone from this category. Okay. But it took a whole year of this teasing firmness. Not a not a lot not a lot of firmness. Like the S&P right now is 10% above its prior high of January. Some indexes made their high in in late last year price highs. Uh and there and some of them are now back below that. For instance, the financial sectors has dropped back below what had been its prior high that it broke out of in sympathy with the S&P move. something's going on there. You got to watch the sectors because they ain't doing what the S&P is doing, meaning very limited symbols. Um, so it's an arduous process. Same happened in 2007. Uh, you hit a high in early, it was I think March, April of 2007 at 1550 S&P that happened to be the price high of the year 2000. 1550, couple points above there. And they sold into it in 2007. and dropped it hard into the summer and we were arguing you're in a topping process and sure enough it came back up one more time in September and October Fed cut rates first time in a while and market partied oh boy and blew through the double top at 1550 2000 high 2007 high and got up to 1575 which was actually right in the middle of our target zone 1550 to600 that we put out a year before and they broke out. So if you're looking at a price chart, you had a triple top breakout. That was the top. Okay? So don't be teased by a market going through a new high. Momentum of the S&P has broken major structure. And the rally since then to a new high on momentum. It's up under well below the high we made early this year and underneath a broken trend structure that goes back to 2022. So, momentum says, "No, you're no good." Price says, "Look at me. I'm a champion." Uh, I trust the momentum. I think we're in a topping process. US dollar uh showing some strength here. An asset that's been rising lately in terms of RSI looking fairly overbought. I know you're uh you don't look too much at RSI compared to a lot of other technical analysts, but we hear so much from the fundamental side about currency debasement, nations divesting themselves of the dollar, the BRICS nations, trading in gold, uh starting to conduct trade using gold, circumventing the dollar, etc. But from a technical and momentum based standpoint, is the dollar really in as much trouble as the hardcore gold bugs would have us believe? >> Yeah, I think it's in trouble. Uh I think it's not in speedy trouble. And frankly, the correlation, for example, between the dollar index and moves in gold is very pathetic. It's not good. It's not inverse. Uh people think, oh, if the dollar goes up, gold goes down. No, it's not true. In fact, if you go back to the bare low in gold 2015, gold price was a,50. Okay? If you go back to where dollar index was then, which happened to be a high was at 98 area. dollar index. [clears throat] Right now, dollar index is has been either side of 98 for about five months. Okay? So, it's where it was 10 years ago. Dollar index. And yet, gold is where 4,000 bucks. Okay? You know, it was 1,500. So, you would have missed the entire gold bull move had you looked at the dollar index and said, I'm going to buy gold only if the dollar weakens. What happened in March of this year on the dollar? It slipped down from like 110 to 104 and in March we said we're bearish. Since dropped under 100 and has flip-flopped back above 100, back down, back up, going nowhere effectively since actually since the April low. So people say, "Oh, the dollar's up." No, since April low, you can draw a sideways line. It's doing nothing. It's just spinning its wheels. And we think it is momentum broken. and highly likely the next major move is is down and it's already in process starting back in March. Um but again, we don't focus too much on it because it doesn't really impact the core markets that we're looking at. People assume there's a correlation, but it's not true. >> When it comes to the overall commodities complex, you alluded to it earlier. you uh think that it could be a major investment arena for the next decade. I want to read a quote from one of your recent reports. You said perhaps the world is now at a point where an awakening will occur if the paper asset bubbles burst and start to inflict pain. Investors might cultivate a renewed appreciation for everyday realworld assets. So, walk us through your thought process there and the technical indicators that lead you to believe we could be on the verge of a major breakout in the commodity sector. >> The Bloomberg commodity index. Now, I know we a year ago said, "Oh, inflation's terrible." Well, commodity inflation isn't. Okay, we had a run in the Bloomberg from a low that bare market low that occurred in 2020, mid mid year, it had gone down from 2011 to 2020. Uh, and its old highs, if you look at Bloomberg, go back to 2008 peak, it was 238. a 2011 peak it was 170. You know where it is right now? 107. Okay. So, it's it's half the price of its prior bull market peaks. We did have a sharp run up from that low in summer of last year uh 2020. And it ran for a year and a half up until the war began in Ukraine. That's when it basically peaked three weeks later. The commodity complex, it didn't run up because of the war. It it stopped when the war began actually and then pulled back to a 100 area again. Its low was under 60 in 2020. So it had about a 50% pullback from that first surge where it went from under 60 to 140 and then pulled back to 100. Two and a half years it's gone dead sideways. The commodity complex almost no volatility, no dimension in price. So it's steady just saying I'm not going back to that low again. I'm too cheap. Okay. Again 107 compared to the 2008 high at 238. Okay. We look at each commodity within the Bloomberg and some of them have broken out, some haven't. But the Bloomberg itself broke out last month via our annual momentum metrics that say, okay, the first leg we saw in 2022, then the pullback, we're now going to start a second leg. Okay. And we see evidence within the complex when we examine like the energy sector, the grains, the base metals that yeah, they're all ready to participate. Oil happens to be a lagard this time. It's not not a leader. It was tended to lead that last rally, but this time it's going to be a lagard, but still join in, I think. So, yeah, I think the Bloomberg commodity complex is ready to turn up again. But when you put it in a real long-term context, measure it versus the S&P like the spreadsheet I I sent you, you can see that where the Bloomberg was beating the S&P up through the 2008 period and then it made a topping process. You can see it on the spread chart. treated as just a price chart and when it broke down it collapsed in value to levels that are almost unbelievable in terms of the relative value collapse we've seen in call it real world assets compared to paper bubble assets. Okay. So even if you just look at that chart and you believe in the notion buy low as an investor think long term buy low don't buy high don't chase things. It's saying, "Hey, watch me because I'm cheap." And it's not really been going much lower since 2020 marginally. But so Bloomberg really ceased its decline five years ago and has been waffling around in a basing type pattern relative to the S&P. It's not going to take much. If the Bloomberg starts to move up now, as we argue it's likely to, and if the S&P starts to weaken, then that spread's going to break out again. And when it does, I'm going to bet that you you could invest in the commodity category, grain area, stocks related to agriculture, oil area, stocks related to oil, etc., etc., base metal miners. And over the next 10 years, you do quite well and beat the heck out of the stock market. And so it looks like a major investment type situation. I don't think it's going to beat gold, certainly not silver in terms of percent gain, but it's a place to be and you need to watch it closely because it won't take much signal to generate that shift in the asset categories. I want to hone in on oil for a moment because from my perspective, it looks like an extraordinarily attractive value proposition at present. It's extremely hated. People have written it off. All sorts of people come on this show saying it's going to $30. we're going to see a worldwide recession. It's going to totally crush oil prices. But when you look at the moment, some of these big, even big oil producers are trading at extremely attractive valuations. They're paying down all their debt. They're paying generous dividends. They're buying back shares. And I think at this point with a lot of the break even cost of of production and even in many areas of the Peran Basin being at the 50ish for the bigger producers, obviously it's lower. We're looking at a setup where the oil price has to go higher in my view from a fundamental perspective. How are you viewing the oil sector um at momentum structural analysis? >> Yeah, your observations are dead on accurate. Uh it is cheap. Okay. Going to 30s. Anyway, uh when you look at the historic price levels of oil, go back a decade, 15 years, where you are now is low. It's very low. Okay. Yes. So, you know, compare it to the S&P, compare it to itself, compare it to itself. It's cheap. Okay. The technicals of oil, we we measure the momentum factors, not just the price. 60 is at the low end of the range of the last handful of years. Okay? It's been in the 50s so forth. But, you know, basically that's where it's that's been cheap for years now. It just doesn't want to go down from there and sustain. Uh it keeps trying to rally and then fails. However, now if during this quarter you see a monthly close on the front month contract of crude WTI at 68. Now admittedly we're 6061 area. It's the way to go. But couple months ago when that Iran event occurred they shot it up into the upper 70s. Lesson there is don't buy war news. It never works. Okay. But if you get to 68 during this quarter, that momentum, long-term momentum of crude oil says I'm coming out of here. Okay? Now, when we get into next quarter, okay, you know, less than two months away now, that number is going to drop even further, probably down to 65 area. And so, if you get oil up to that level on a price chart, it doesn't say a lot, but a momentum says, "No, I'm out of here." And and at that point, I don't know what the reason would be. I'm not trying to argue fundamentals, but all the expectations of, you know, Trump's going to keep it down and all this stuff will go out the window. And I suspect by the Bloomberg breaking out now is oil tends to move with the Bloomberg. You could treat it as a separate entity, but if the Bloomberg's going up, you can bet oil, it may be lag this time, but I'll bet it goes up with it. >> And fertilizer stocks, pot ash, phosphate. Um, this is the part of the show where I get to talk about to to talk to you for my own selfish reasons. Oil and and uh fertilizer stocks are two of the areas that I'm most interested in at present because once again, valuation seem extremely depressed. Unlike oil, which is hated, fertilizer stocks, pot ash, phosphate, it's just ignored. Nobody even discusses it. There's no there's no fertilizer Twitter, you know, there's nobody talking about it at all. And once again, similar situation. in so many of these companies extraordinarily depressed uh prices extremely attractive valuations it's a very similar story how do you see um the the the pot ash and phosphate producers and just the overall agriculture complex performing >> they will go with the with the grains which are turning up they've been hit very hard after that rally to 2022 but our momentum metrics of corn weed and soybeans are all either positive or about to become positive so there's like vocal. There's a chorus of three there. Okay. And they all look like one, they're not going lower. The only issue is when do they turn up and we defined a level where they turn up. I think two of them have actually done so. Uh corn's a lagard right now, but uh I haven't looked at it lately. may not be but uh we they crossed enough numbers to indicate okay what you've seen for the last year or so this basing action is over going up and sure enough yeah the a related stocks will go with them and again the point I made about Bloomberg as a relative asset category meaning the world is obsessed right now with with things that aren't quote real you know they're sort of like Bitcoin you know what is it Okay. Uh and real world assets, it's like we don't live on Earth anymore. Doesn't matter. You know, we're ethereal. Uh when that stock market breaks, and again, right now we're talking about, you know, five or six stocks really because some of the other indexes are back. Some of them are unchanged on the year. Okay. Uh when that breaks, it causes thought processes to change. It causes emotion. And when people get emotional sometimes they, you know, they they seek some other place to go. They don't, the money doesn't just burn up. Then when the stock market goes down, it goes somewhere else, too. And the Fed will print a lot. Don't don't worry about that. Uh the A area looks like an area where for the next decade plus, maybe humankind is going to shift their attention to a vastly underpriced part of reality. Uh, and I it'll be reflected in the we we run the fertilizer stocks about monthly. My my son Brett updates them and uh they're reflective of the grain complex and the Bloomberg. So, expect the whole thing to go up, even the price of cow Okay? I don't [snorts] know if they commoditized that or not, but if if you did, I bet you could invest in that and beat the S&P. [laughter] Well, let's let's end on any other areas of the market that we haven't yet covered that you think present an attractive value proposition at present and maybe any areas, you know, aside from the broad market, any areas that you'd be staying away from right now that you think are too overvalued. >> Yeah. Now, there's the one thing I forgot to talk about was the silver gold relationship. >> Okay. >> I argued that silver is going to explode, but there is a you can maintain a spread chart where you divide an ounce of silver into an ounce of gold, express it as a percent. A lot of people do it the other way. It's a ratio chart, but we do it ounce of silver to gold. And right now, silver price is about 1.2% of the price of gold. Okay? If you go back and examine what happened in those two prior bull markets at the phase where silver went ballistic, we had been going up for a couple years, 75, 76, 77, 78, 80. finally. In the last 6 months of that move, silver went quadrupled in price. It had already been in a bull. It wasn't like it wasn't a bull. Then it just said, "I'm gone." Okay. And in 2010, September of 2010, 6 months before silver reached 50 again in April 2011, it doubled in a half in in six months. Okay. Uh, you want to quadruple silver from where it is now, you're talking 200. Okay? You want to double and a half, where you're talking, you know, 125, whatever. Okay? What was a signal back then that that event was going to occur? Because when you looked at the price charts, they were already going up. So, it wasn't a big deal that they just went up faster. Okay? So, the price charts weren't telling you. You'd already been in a bull trend. the spread, divide the ounce of silver into an ounce of gold and plot it monthto month. And sure enough, back then, even while silver had been going up for a couple years along with gold, 76, 77, 78, 79, okay, it was going up less and therefore the spread was deteriorating. Silver was underperforming the advance in gold. So, it looked negative on a spread chart. It was still making money, but wasn't as much as gold. The spread built a structure and it ran up to a level, pulled back, ran up to another level a year later, pulled back. And when it came through that level, the spread broke out and that told you silver's now going to beat gold. That's what set off the the fuse. Same thing happened in 2010. You'd had a depressed action by silver to gold. It built a spread dynamic that you could you could see draw a ruler across it and in September 2010 you broke out and that's when the price of silver went ape. We have a very similar situation on the chart I sent you. There's two charts there. One is the spread chart at the top and you can see there's a red horizontal line on it comes through at just above 1.3%. Again, we're right now at 1.2%. You ever get a monthly close above 1.31%. Actually, it's where those precise two prior highs were going back four years. That breaks out and it says, "I'm out of here." And you're still at very cheap historic values of silver to gold. Heck, 20 of the past 50 years, silver's at least been 2% price of gold. Well, heck, if you go from 1.2 to two, that's a huge multiple. I mean, silver is almost doubling in value to gold. And in bull markets going back 50 years during the 7980 move and the 201011 surge silver reached well over 3%. So from 1.2 to well wow okay huge potential multiple. The key is to break that spread out. Now the chart below the spread, pardon me for getting scientific here, is a is a momentum of the ch of the spread where we measure the spread in relation oscillated versus its 10-month average. And you should have the same picture, dual highs. You want to break through them. Well, heck, last September, we closed on the line and back up ever so slightly into October. It won't take a hair's breath to break out the momentum above its ceiling. And when it does, you can bet that the spread will follow. So those are the metrics we're watching that tell us the clock has begun. The clock for the go into a new reality. So that's what we're focused on now. Gold's already outpaced the stock market except for the S&P. Uh and it's ready to do that. But when silver breaks off versus gold, it's telling you it just began. You haven't gone ape yet. Everybody thinks it's gone crazy. No, it hasn't. has even begun. So that's a technical we're looking at. >> And then final question, other areas of the market that you're watching right now that you think could present some value. >> Bloomberg. Bloomberg is an area to watch as a lagger to gold. It it sometimes is out of sync. Commodities don't always move with gold. Gold double from 15 to 2020. Bloomberg went down, but Bloomberg now looks like it's ready to get on the coattails. And I think that's partly going to be asset class movement out of a bubble stock market into other places that are perceived to be more riskreward ratio. Uh one area that is not helping as an alternative is the T-bond market and it's frankly at a position now where it could suddenly be a headline maker if it drops too much. We've already dropped a couple points from a high this week, but it after its crash in effect from 2020 through 2021, it dropped from like 190 down to 100 almost. Price T-bond futures yield went up a lot. It hasn't been able to get off the ground. It's just gone this way for multiple years. Trying to rally, trying to r it can't seem to get going. And right now, it's technically ripe to roll over again, meaning higher yields. That's just what the stock market doesn't want to hear. But it means that the alternative category 6040, you know, stock market bonds ain't working. It's not going to be an alternative. Well, heck, if you don't have an alternative in T- bonds, what do you do? Gold and related commodities. Big change coming. >> Well, Michael, this has been a fantastic conversation as always. Tell us about momentum structural analysis. Well, you you get about five reports a week, including a very long weekend report. We look at all four major asset categories, debt markets, foreign exchange, stock markets, not just ours, and commodities with an emphasis on gold and silver. So, you get a a widescreen perspective. You don't just look at gold and see what it's doing. You need to look around, you know. Uh anyway, uh I think that what you're going to see over the next year is going to be very dynamic in a lot of markets and particularly in once that silver spread breaks out, it's going to get very dynamic almost immediately. So, seat belt time. >> Seat belt time. I love it. I'll put a link in the description below to Momentum Structural Analysis so people can check that out. Thank you once again, Michael, for coming back on the show. It was a blast. >> Thank you, Jesse. Thank you. >> Thank you for joining us today. Our sponsor Arc Silver Gold Opsium has some great prices on gold and silver bullion. They are on your screen right now. These are all while supplies last. So, make sure to reach out to owner Ian Everard today at 3072649441 or by email at ianarchsggo.com and make sure to tell him that Commodity Culture sent you. And pick up your Commodity Culture merch using the link in the description below. everything backed by a 100% quality guarantee. And I'll see you guys in the next episode. Commodity Culture is a series on commodities and natural resources. If you would like to see more, be sure to subscribe and hit the bell notification so you're always up tod date with the latest episodes.