Jordan Roy-Byrne: Gold, Silver Price Setup is Simple, How to Maximize Gains
Summary
Precious Metals Bull Market: The guest argues we are early in a new secular bull market for precious metals despite recent strong gains, with corrections viewed as healthy pauses.
Gold Outlook: He frames the current move as a post-breakout correction that typically lasts months, expecting higher long-term targets based on historical analogs and watching the 150- and 200-day moving averages for re-entry.
Silver Outlook: Silver is expected to outperform gold after consolidating, with a history of doubling within 7–11 months after breaking prior all-time highs.
Gold Miners: Mining equities should benefit over the cycle, but selection matters; breadth has been overheated and needs to cool before a durable bottom sets up.
Cost Inflation Risk: A key risk is resurgence in mining cost inflation (energy, inputs), which could compress margins and reduce the flow-through of higher metal prices to earnings.
Valuation and Margins: Current industry margins are solid; if margins merely hold over 2–3 years, producers and developers growing production can see significant value accretion.
Macro Cycle: He expects the eventual end of the U.S. stock secular bull (timeline 18–36 months uncertain) to catalyze stronger capital flows into precious metals and hard assets as the bond secular bear persists.
Strategy: Focus on individual companies, do deep research, and apply a buy-hold-trim approach while using breadth and moving-average signals to time entries during the correction.
Transcript
[music] I'm Charlotte Mloud with investingnews.com and here today with me is Jordan Roy Burn. He's a chartered market technician and master of financial technical analysis and the editor and publisher at the Daily Gold. Thank you so much for being here. Great to have you. >> It's my pleasure. Great to be here. >> Really nice to have you here. First time we're meeting in person and we're at the New Orleans Investment Conference. We are kind of toward the end of the second day. So, I think it's fair to ask how sentiment is feeling on the show floor. Any any key takeaways that you have so far from being here? >> Well, I don't know if this is correct or not, but my first takeaway would be there's not as many people here as I expected. And I mean that's a good sign for gold and silver in this bull market. And that aligns with my research. Even though we've had huge moves in the last 18 months, we're still in the earlier portion of new secular bull markets. So I think it's I think it's a really good sign. I think next year or in two years uh that I think we could see a lot more people here. >> Yes, that is one of the directions I wanted to go in because we're we're catching up from March is when we had our last conversation. And so so much has happened since then. And when we talked then, you're explaining that gold had broken out of a 13-year cop and handle patterns, which was going to set the stage for a strong performance. So definitely we've seen that play out. We're in a bit of a pullback now. And I think a lot of people have questions about how long might that last? Are we going to go lower before we go higher again? So any thoughts you can share to help investors out there? >> Sure. Well, the easy answers or the quick answers I should say are uh historically these types of corrections they tend to last around 5 months. Uh now there's an element of price and time. Sometimes the price damage or the majority of it is done in the first two months. So if we see a lot more selling over the next few weeks, then depending on how much lower we go, we could be mostly done with the price damage. I I do think gold could come down to around 3600 3,700. That's an area I'm looking at as support. Uh with respect to silver, I would say in the low 40s. I mean, you do have support at 43. There is an open gap at in the mid40s, which I think it could be tested. So 40 43, you know, that zone. I think that's what we're looking at. And we have to understand where we are. We're we're at a point that I call with respect for gold I should say we're at the post breakout correction or post major breakout correction because stepping back gold has had three major breakouts in its history. So we're in the third major breakout. The first one was in 1972 which I also deem the greatest breakout of all time in the history of capital markets. So you had that breakout and then you had 2005 which it wasn't a breakout to a new all-time high but we did break out of a 20 or 21 year base when we went above 500 and then we shot up to 730. And so at that point in 2006 we had a correction for about I believe the price damage was like a month or two and then you had another four or five months something like that. Now, if you look at the 70s, we've been following 72, uh, that analog pretty closely. Um, although we're kind of in between. There was a correction in 1972, which was pretty mild. And then there was a steeper correction in 73, which was more severe. It was 28% over four or five months. But the good news is we're not going to correct that much because gold gold would have had to have reached like 5,800 or 6,000 on the current scale to get to that point. So look, you know, looking at all this history, that tells me and then I I I look at the chart and the price action, you know, that tells me we could see 15%, 17% and there something in that range for gold. Uh but what happens historically after you have these post breakout corrections, uh some it's obviously it's a really good buying opportunity and you have to think about it. Um, you know, the last 18 months have been incredible. And if you look at ultimately where these moves go and if you just look at the average of the 1972 move and the 2005 move, the average of those breakouts, putting them on the current scale, continuing them for a few years, the average would put gold at 6,900 in February or March of 2027, which is I mean, that seems really high, but that that's just based on history. I mean, these major breakouts, that's what happens. So, you know, I like to be conservative, but I'm just like to put it out there like that's that's the potential. And, you know, whe whether we reach that level in that time or not, I mean, we're going much higher in gold and silver after this correction. So, this correction is really going to be your last chance to get in at reasonable prices. Uh, and I and I and obviously the you'll see a much bigger move in silver because silver hit 50. It's pulling back and the longer it corrects, the better it is because eventually or I should say there's three times in silver's history when it's broken out to a new all-time high. After those breakouts, it it basically doubled in 7 to 11 months. So, somebody can tell me, okay, when's the point when we're going to see silver break above 50 for good? it's going to start moving. Then at that point inside of a year, you're likely to see it double and you're likely to see $100 an ounce. >> Okay. So, this this is, as you said, our last chance to get in at a at a reasonable price. When we're talking about we've seen this correction right now, and we're waiting for that next move higher. What What would you be looking for as the trigger? I think people might be curious to know that for the next leg up. >> It's a really good question. One answer I would say is another thing about these post breakout corrections in gold and looking at all breakouts not just the breakouts to new all-time highs because if you're looking at all breakouts in gold there's I think there's seven or eight historically gold breaks out then you get a big move higher but what happens after that? Well the post breakout correction it comes back to the 200 day moving average or really close. So, I would look at um the 150day moving average in addition to the 200 day moving average. And if you're looking at I mean I I checked it earlier. I think we're at for gold. I think we're at 3,300 or or it sounds about right for the 200 day moving average. Like in the low 3,300s. Give it another month or two that's going to be at, you know, 35, you know, close to 3600, which is, you know, based on the price action. That's where I'm looking for support. And so, you know, you're looking for support. based on previous peaks and and those types of levels, but also you look at moving averages and so that you know looking at the 150 day in the 200 day moving average if over the next month or two 3 months four months whatever we see gold coming very close to that point that's going to be a very powerful signal there's other things that we can look at like with respect to the stocks you can look at breadth indicators I look at what's the percentage of uh miners and also GDXJ J stocks that closed above the 20-day, 50-day, and 200 day moving average. And leading up to the recent peak, um, all those numbers were like 100% across the board, they were 100% for a long time. The new highs that we were looking at in uh, the HUI, GDX, uh, GDXJ, the new highs, that data, like how many new 52- week highs are we making every day, that data was blowing off and skyrocketing, which is great because that's what happens in a bull market. But eventually you get to a point where it's way too strong and the market just needs time to cool off. So that's where we are. And so I'm looking for that data um the percentage of stocks, you know, that have closed above these moving averages. I'm looking for that data to come down. Um you know, you can see the percentage above the 20-day uh and the 50-day. You see that get below 10%. The percentage above the 200 day right now. All these there's it's still close to 100%. So we have it. So we'll probably need to see that come down to 80 70%. And then at that point uh we will be much closer I think to a bottom in the sector. So there's many different things you could look at. Uh but uh I would say I think the we've already done a good amount of price damage in gold and silver. there's a little bit more to go and also there's the element of time and then gold moving average you know 150day 200 day moving averages looking at those tracking those that's going to be your best bet >> okay and if we take a look over at the gold and silver mining stocks I think that's important as well because if we look at the numbers that you shared where the metal prices could go usually we hear that the stocks will outperform the metals so what do you see coming there I imagine it's also a buying opportunity if you want to get into the stocks or or add if you have them already. >> No, absolutely. It will be a buying opportunity, but I always say you have to research individual companies because every company is different. There there's probably some stocks right now that are already buys and there's others that maybe they need another four or five months to correct. So, always focus on individual stocks. Get to know the individual companies. But the real issue for me or real question I should say is how much cost inflation are we going to see over the next 12 to 24 months or so because in the last 18 months we've seen I mean obvious everybody's dealing with inflation there's big inflation in the economy we all know that but as far as mining and the cost of mining the cost of production that has been contained in the last 18 months which means the moves that we've seen in gold and silver in real terms the the the gains in real terms are actually pretty close to what we've had in nominal terms. So I if in gold you're going to move like say we move from $4,000 to 6,000, the question is, you know, how much of that $2,000, how much of that extra margin are we going to capture? Because if if energy prices rise, if if oil rebounds, if there's more cost inflation in the economy, that's going to filter down uh to miners. And so we just in general moving from 4,000 to 2,000, we might not get the kind of margin expansion that we had from 2,000 to 4,000. It could be it could be a lot less. I mean, there still will be some there, but people have to be a little bit careful of just assuming that this entire move is just going to go right to the bottom line of all these companies. Yes, some of it will. may maybe more of it than I think but that that's just um something to consider. So so there's that fact and then as I said earlier focus on individual companies like that's you know pick out the best individual companies you can find the best values there that that's going to help people uh I think >> so for for the inflation angle because I do think that's something that should be talked about when it comes to the mining companies. How are you accounting for that when you're making your mining stock investments? How how are you letting that play into your strategy? >> Well, in my projections, I always factor in cost inflation. You have to factor in cost inflations when you're looking at valuations for producers. Also, explorers and developers. I mean, you're looking at, you know, what's the net present value? You'll see these studies where they say, "Oh, well, this is, you know, it's a billion dollar value at 3500 and then at 4,000 it's uh, you know, $1.5 billion." Like, you you can't assume that. all the gains that are coming in metals prices >> are going to be captured. So I, you know, I I like to factor in um m maybe like it depends you know in some cases like 10% cost inflation per year maybe in other cases 20% cost inflation. So it depends on the projects. I mean the the higher grade projects that I guess are not um that are not open pit mines that require so much energy. Uh those types of projects may see less cost inflation. But so again every individual company is different, every project is different. But in general, you just you have to factor in uh cost inflation into uh you know what expected cash flows and uh you know NPVs uh could be. And so I would say you have to factor in at least 10% cost inflation per year or maybe even 15% in some c because we know that it's not going to be linear. We haven't seen that in the last 18 months and then suddenly in like I said in the next 18 months you know maybe we get 20% or 25% cost inflation. So >> so where where would you say the best which gold and silver mining stocks have present the best opportunity right now in terms of maybe the the size of company or level that you'll be looking at right now? >> That's a really good question. something I have not thought about. You know, I would I would have said I think, you know, six or seven months ago, I think the the uh like the the developers or pre-development companies that had really big deposits, their ounces in the ground were really really cheap. And so, we've seen those stocks uh those stocks have made they made huge moves uh towards the end of the last move higher in the sector. But right now, I would I would say it's difficult to give a good answer. I'm focusing more on individual companies and I I still think you know and I focus mostly on um producers and developers less so on the explorers and I I think the valuations we've obviously seen an increase in the last 18 months but what's really interesting is we're probably at you know historically I'd say average valuations and if you look at the margins that we have right now if we could just as an industry maintain these margins for over the next 2 or 3 years, a lot of these companies are going to make a lot of money. I mean, if if you're projecting out over the next 2 years or so and and just the margins right now will stay the same. Companies that are growing production, you know, companies that are developing mines, they're going to be a lot more valuable two to three years from now. Again, we just have to have the same margin. So the but the real opportunity is if this bull market continues as we all expect and we do get continued margin expansion we don't need a lot but if there's just a little bit or to some higher degree you know that that's just a huge opportunity. So that's what I'm focusing on and I would say you know focus on the individual companies. I I someone else somebody else could probably better answer you know which specific group um you know has uh has the most upside. No, that's that's helpful just to know what you're doing there. And just to so we have this precious metals bull market. We've talked about the secular bare market in bonds and you're expecting a secular bare market in the stock market. I wanted to bring that up because it feels like the general stock market has been able to hang on quite a bit longer than people have expected it to. So I'm wondering about maybe maybe your timeline on that. anything that you have updated thoughts on there? >> My updated thoughts would be when we see the uh end of this secular bull in US stocks. That will probably it it could mark the midway point I think for the secular bull market that we're seeing in precious metals and maybe to a slightly lesser degree resources as a whole because precious metals we've already had a really good move here over the last couple years. But um you know typically after that you get the real explosive moves. Um so as far as the timing I don't know. I mean it's not it's not a good answer for an interview but I honestly don't know. I I would say a couple years like I I talked about in my book. I think the key if we're not going to have you know a downturn or a crash as our industry constantly predicts. Um I I think the worry would be you you know economic growth picks up but they're going to run things really hot because that's the only way you get out of a debt bubble and so at some point inflation will really kick in and you know interest rates will have to go higher and then you know that's going to cause problems in the economy. So it's it's some recipe of those things that I think will lead to the next recession bare market and uh the end of the secular bull market in the US. So as far as timing I I really don't know could be two years could be 3 years could be 18 months but somewhere in that period and um and and again that's going to be a major catalyst uh for precious metals and resources as a whole because we've seen you mentioned the secular bare market and bonds that's been a huge driver of not only gold but also the stock market as a whole. I mean the bond market's the biggest market. So what happens is all the money comes out of bonds and initially it goes into stocks first then gold second >> fine >> um this is what happened in the 1960s if you if you're using gold stocks as gold as I like to do because you couldn't buy gold back then but as you know as it moves on as it transpires then capital starts to move more into gold and then stock secondly and I think that's what we've seen probably in the actually this year probably in the last nine months or so it started to move more so into gold and precious metals. Then stocks uh secondly, but eventually when stocks fall into a secular bear and then the secular bull ends, then you get a lot more of that capital, it's going into gold, you know, precious metals, hard assets, and you know, that's what that that's the catalyst for, as I said, you know, the last half of the secular bull and precious metals and resources. So, we're but I don't think we're near that point yet. I still think we could be a couple years away. >> Yeah. No, that helps. That helps even just to know how it interacts with what else is going on. So, really good to take a look at and good to know that we're heading toward that larger resources bull market. Anything final that is on your mind right now that you would share with investors? >> I would say, and this is something I've learned personally and I'll talk about in my presentation is focus on individual companies. become an expert on individual companies. Pay attention to those things and less on um macro doom porn, which I mean, I'm sorry, but that you know, our industry has predicted 47 of the last zero crashes. So, you you have to be really careful about listening to that. Um and I and and I I just think that people because I used to do this, people spend too much time worrying about, you know, what's the macro? What's the Fed do? Is China going to do this? Is Trump going to say that? Like what's going to like and some of that stuff is important to some degree. I mean, it is important for some, you know, specialty metals and industries. I get that. But for gold and silver, the macro is pretty simple. We're in a new secular bull market. We're going much higher. We're really overbought right now. So, we're going to correct. That's all you need to know. Focus on individual companies. Become an expert. Uh because that that is how you're going to make the most money. You're not going to make the most money trying to trade news what the Fed says or you know what what Trump did or you know this new law like you're not going to make money trading that. Just spend your time researching individual companies. You know call the CEO come to conferences like this. Become an expert and buy good companies and buy them at good values. And if they do really well you you trim along the way along the the ride higher. You know, trim means you're just selling small amounts as they rise. You know, you're reducing your risk where you're still in. You can rotate that capital into a better value. So, buy, hold, and trim. You know, buy good companies of good values, hold them, and then trim when they go way up. And if they don't work out, you know, if you're down 20 or 30%, you have to re-evaluate. If you can't find a good reason to hold them, then you sell and move on to a different company. So, for me, I just I I think you have to keep it simple. Well, I don't I don't think I've ever heard an interview summed up so succinctly. So, if if somebody happened to watch the end first, I guess that's that's all you need to know. Thank you so much for coming on to go over what's going on. This was really good. >> Yeah, my pleasure. Thanks for having me. >> Of course. And once again, I'm Charlotte Mloud with investingnews.com and this is Jordan Rodburn.
Jordan Roy-Byrne: Gold, Silver Price Setup is Simple, How to Maximize Gains
Summary
Transcript
[music] I'm Charlotte Mloud with investingnews.com and here today with me is Jordan Roy Burn. He's a chartered market technician and master of financial technical analysis and the editor and publisher at the Daily Gold. Thank you so much for being here. Great to have you. >> It's my pleasure. Great to be here. >> Really nice to have you here. First time we're meeting in person and we're at the New Orleans Investment Conference. We are kind of toward the end of the second day. So, I think it's fair to ask how sentiment is feeling on the show floor. Any any key takeaways that you have so far from being here? >> Well, I don't know if this is correct or not, but my first takeaway would be there's not as many people here as I expected. And I mean that's a good sign for gold and silver in this bull market. And that aligns with my research. Even though we've had huge moves in the last 18 months, we're still in the earlier portion of new secular bull markets. So I think it's I think it's a really good sign. I think next year or in two years uh that I think we could see a lot more people here. >> Yes, that is one of the directions I wanted to go in because we're we're catching up from March is when we had our last conversation. And so so much has happened since then. And when we talked then, you're explaining that gold had broken out of a 13-year cop and handle patterns, which was going to set the stage for a strong performance. So definitely we've seen that play out. We're in a bit of a pullback now. And I think a lot of people have questions about how long might that last? Are we going to go lower before we go higher again? So any thoughts you can share to help investors out there? >> Sure. Well, the easy answers or the quick answers I should say are uh historically these types of corrections they tend to last around 5 months. Uh now there's an element of price and time. Sometimes the price damage or the majority of it is done in the first two months. So if we see a lot more selling over the next few weeks, then depending on how much lower we go, we could be mostly done with the price damage. I I do think gold could come down to around 3600 3,700. That's an area I'm looking at as support. Uh with respect to silver, I would say in the low 40s. I mean, you do have support at 43. There is an open gap at in the mid40s, which I think it could be tested. So 40 43, you know, that zone. I think that's what we're looking at. And we have to understand where we are. We're we're at a point that I call with respect for gold I should say we're at the post breakout correction or post major breakout correction because stepping back gold has had three major breakouts in its history. So we're in the third major breakout. The first one was in 1972 which I also deem the greatest breakout of all time in the history of capital markets. So you had that breakout and then you had 2005 which it wasn't a breakout to a new all-time high but we did break out of a 20 or 21 year base when we went above 500 and then we shot up to 730. And so at that point in 2006 we had a correction for about I believe the price damage was like a month or two and then you had another four or five months something like that. Now, if you look at the 70s, we've been following 72, uh, that analog pretty closely. Um, although we're kind of in between. There was a correction in 1972, which was pretty mild. And then there was a steeper correction in 73, which was more severe. It was 28% over four or five months. But the good news is we're not going to correct that much because gold gold would have had to have reached like 5,800 or 6,000 on the current scale to get to that point. So look, you know, looking at all this history, that tells me and then I I I look at the chart and the price action, you know, that tells me we could see 15%, 17% and there something in that range for gold. Uh but what happens historically after you have these post breakout corrections, uh some it's obviously it's a really good buying opportunity and you have to think about it. Um, you know, the last 18 months have been incredible. And if you look at ultimately where these moves go and if you just look at the average of the 1972 move and the 2005 move, the average of those breakouts, putting them on the current scale, continuing them for a few years, the average would put gold at 6,900 in February or March of 2027, which is I mean, that seems really high, but that that's just based on history. I mean, these major breakouts, that's what happens. So, you know, I like to be conservative, but I'm just like to put it out there like that's that's the potential. And, you know, whe whether we reach that level in that time or not, I mean, we're going much higher in gold and silver after this correction. So, this correction is really going to be your last chance to get in at reasonable prices. Uh, and I and I and obviously the you'll see a much bigger move in silver because silver hit 50. It's pulling back and the longer it corrects, the better it is because eventually or I should say there's three times in silver's history when it's broken out to a new all-time high. After those breakouts, it it basically doubled in 7 to 11 months. So, somebody can tell me, okay, when's the point when we're going to see silver break above 50 for good? it's going to start moving. Then at that point inside of a year, you're likely to see it double and you're likely to see $100 an ounce. >> Okay. So, this this is, as you said, our last chance to get in at a at a reasonable price. When we're talking about we've seen this correction right now, and we're waiting for that next move higher. What What would you be looking for as the trigger? I think people might be curious to know that for the next leg up. >> It's a really good question. One answer I would say is another thing about these post breakout corrections in gold and looking at all breakouts not just the breakouts to new all-time highs because if you're looking at all breakouts in gold there's I think there's seven or eight historically gold breaks out then you get a big move higher but what happens after that? Well the post breakout correction it comes back to the 200 day moving average or really close. So, I would look at um the 150day moving average in addition to the 200 day moving average. And if you're looking at I mean I I checked it earlier. I think we're at for gold. I think we're at 3,300 or or it sounds about right for the 200 day moving average. Like in the low 3,300s. Give it another month or two that's going to be at, you know, 35, you know, close to 3600, which is, you know, based on the price action. That's where I'm looking for support. And so, you know, you're looking for support. based on previous peaks and and those types of levels, but also you look at moving averages and so that you know looking at the 150 day in the 200 day moving average if over the next month or two 3 months four months whatever we see gold coming very close to that point that's going to be a very powerful signal there's other things that we can look at like with respect to the stocks you can look at breadth indicators I look at what's the percentage of uh miners and also GDXJ J stocks that closed above the 20-day, 50-day, and 200 day moving average. And leading up to the recent peak, um, all those numbers were like 100% across the board, they were 100% for a long time. The new highs that we were looking at in uh, the HUI, GDX, uh, GDXJ, the new highs, that data, like how many new 52- week highs are we making every day, that data was blowing off and skyrocketing, which is great because that's what happens in a bull market. But eventually you get to a point where it's way too strong and the market just needs time to cool off. So that's where we are. And so I'm looking for that data um the percentage of stocks, you know, that have closed above these moving averages. I'm looking for that data to come down. Um you know, you can see the percentage above the 20-day uh and the 50-day. You see that get below 10%. The percentage above the 200 day right now. All these there's it's still close to 100%. So we have it. So we'll probably need to see that come down to 80 70%. And then at that point uh we will be much closer I think to a bottom in the sector. So there's many different things you could look at. Uh but uh I would say I think the we've already done a good amount of price damage in gold and silver. there's a little bit more to go and also there's the element of time and then gold moving average you know 150day 200 day moving averages looking at those tracking those that's going to be your best bet >> okay and if we take a look over at the gold and silver mining stocks I think that's important as well because if we look at the numbers that you shared where the metal prices could go usually we hear that the stocks will outperform the metals so what do you see coming there I imagine it's also a buying opportunity if you want to get into the stocks or or add if you have them already. >> No, absolutely. It will be a buying opportunity, but I always say you have to research individual companies because every company is different. There there's probably some stocks right now that are already buys and there's others that maybe they need another four or five months to correct. So, always focus on individual stocks. Get to know the individual companies. But the real issue for me or real question I should say is how much cost inflation are we going to see over the next 12 to 24 months or so because in the last 18 months we've seen I mean obvious everybody's dealing with inflation there's big inflation in the economy we all know that but as far as mining and the cost of mining the cost of production that has been contained in the last 18 months which means the moves that we've seen in gold and silver in real terms the the the gains in real terms are actually pretty close to what we've had in nominal terms. So I if in gold you're going to move like say we move from $4,000 to 6,000, the question is, you know, how much of that $2,000, how much of that extra margin are we going to capture? Because if if energy prices rise, if if oil rebounds, if there's more cost inflation in the economy, that's going to filter down uh to miners. And so we just in general moving from 4,000 to 2,000, we might not get the kind of margin expansion that we had from 2,000 to 4,000. It could be it could be a lot less. I mean, there still will be some there, but people have to be a little bit careful of just assuming that this entire move is just going to go right to the bottom line of all these companies. Yes, some of it will. may maybe more of it than I think but that that's just um something to consider. So so there's that fact and then as I said earlier focus on individual companies like that's you know pick out the best individual companies you can find the best values there that that's going to help people uh I think >> so for for the inflation angle because I do think that's something that should be talked about when it comes to the mining companies. How are you accounting for that when you're making your mining stock investments? How how are you letting that play into your strategy? >> Well, in my projections, I always factor in cost inflation. You have to factor in cost inflations when you're looking at valuations for producers. Also, explorers and developers. I mean, you're looking at, you know, what's the net present value? You'll see these studies where they say, "Oh, well, this is, you know, it's a billion dollar value at 3500 and then at 4,000 it's uh, you know, $1.5 billion." Like, you you can't assume that. all the gains that are coming in metals prices >> are going to be captured. So I, you know, I I like to factor in um m maybe like it depends you know in some cases like 10% cost inflation per year maybe in other cases 20% cost inflation. So it depends on the projects. I mean the the higher grade projects that I guess are not um that are not open pit mines that require so much energy. Uh those types of projects may see less cost inflation. But so again every individual company is different, every project is different. But in general, you just you have to factor in uh cost inflation into uh you know what expected cash flows and uh you know NPVs uh could be. And so I would say you have to factor in at least 10% cost inflation per year or maybe even 15% in some c because we know that it's not going to be linear. We haven't seen that in the last 18 months and then suddenly in like I said in the next 18 months you know maybe we get 20% or 25% cost inflation. So >> so where where would you say the best which gold and silver mining stocks have present the best opportunity right now in terms of maybe the the size of company or level that you'll be looking at right now? >> That's a really good question. something I have not thought about. You know, I would I would have said I think, you know, six or seven months ago, I think the the uh like the the developers or pre-development companies that had really big deposits, their ounces in the ground were really really cheap. And so, we've seen those stocks uh those stocks have made they made huge moves uh towards the end of the last move higher in the sector. But right now, I would I would say it's difficult to give a good answer. I'm focusing more on individual companies and I I still think you know and I focus mostly on um producers and developers less so on the explorers and I I think the valuations we've obviously seen an increase in the last 18 months but what's really interesting is we're probably at you know historically I'd say average valuations and if you look at the margins that we have right now if we could just as an industry maintain these margins for over the next 2 or 3 years, a lot of these companies are going to make a lot of money. I mean, if if you're projecting out over the next 2 years or so and and just the margins right now will stay the same. Companies that are growing production, you know, companies that are developing mines, they're going to be a lot more valuable two to three years from now. Again, we just have to have the same margin. So the but the real opportunity is if this bull market continues as we all expect and we do get continued margin expansion we don't need a lot but if there's just a little bit or to some higher degree you know that that's just a huge opportunity. So that's what I'm focusing on and I would say you know focus on the individual companies. I I someone else somebody else could probably better answer you know which specific group um you know has uh has the most upside. No, that's that's helpful just to know what you're doing there. And just to so we have this precious metals bull market. We've talked about the secular bare market in bonds and you're expecting a secular bare market in the stock market. I wanted to bring that up because it feels like the general stock market has been able to hang on quite a bit longer than people have expected it to. So I'm wondering about maybe maybe your timeline on that. anything that you have updated thoughts on there? >> My updated thoughts would be when we see the uh end of this secular bull in US stocks. That will probably it it could mark the midway point I think for the secular bull market that we're seeing in precious metals and maybe to a slightly lesser degree resources as a whole because precious metals we've already had a really good move here over the last couple years. But um you know typically after that you get the real explosive moves. Um so as far as the timing I don't know. I mean it's not it's not a good answer for an interview but I honestly don't know. I I would say a couple years like I I talked about in my book. I think the key if we're not going to have you know a downturn or a crash as our industry constantly predicts. Um I I think the worry would be you you know economic growth picks up but they're going to run things really hot because that's the only way you get out of a debt bubble and so at some point inflation will really kick in and you know interest rates will have to go higher and then you know that's going to cause problems in the economy. So it's it's some recipe of those things that I think will lead to the next recession bare market and uh the end of the secular bull market in the US. So as far as timing I I really don't know could be two years could be 3 years could be 18 months but somewhere in that period and um and and again that's going to be a major catalyst uh for precious metals and resources as a whole because we've seen you mentioned the secular bare market and bonds that's been a huge driver of not only gold but also the stock market as a whole. I mean the bond market's the biggest market. So what happens is all the money comes out of bonds and initially it goes into stocks first then gold second >> fine >> um this is what happened in the 1960s if you if you're using gold stocks as gold as I like to do because you couldn't buy gold back then but as you know as it moves on as it transpires then capital starts to move more into gold and then stock secondly and I think that's what we've seen probably in the actually this year probably in the last nine months or so it started to move more so into gold and precious metals. Then stocks uh secondly, but eventually when stocks fall into a secular bear and then the secular bull ends, then you get a lot more of that capital, it's going into gold, you know, precious metals, hard assets, and you know, that's what that that's the catalyst for, as I said, you know, the last half of the secular bull and precious metals and resources. So, we're but I don't think we're near that point yet. I still think we could be a couple years away. >> Yeah. No, that helps. That helps even just to know how it interacts with what else is going on. So, really good to take a look at and good to know that we're heading toward that larger resources bull market. Anything final that is on your mind right now that you would share with investors? >> I would say, and this is something I've learned personally and I'll talk about in my presentation is focus on individual companies. become an expert on individual companies. Pay attention to those things and less on um macro doom porn, which I mean, I'm sorry, but that you know, our industry has predicted 47 of the last zero crashes. So, you you have to be really careful about listening to that. Um and I and and I I just think that people because I used to do this, people spend too much time worrying about, you know, what's the macro? What's the Fed do? Is China going to do this? Is Trump going to say that? Like what's going to like and some of that stuff is important to some degree. I mean, it is important for some, you know, specialty metals and industries. I get that. But for gold and silver, the macro is pretty simple. We're in a new secular bull market. We're going much higher. We're really overbought right now. So, we're going to correct. That's all you need to know. Focus on individual companies. Become an expert. Uh because that that is how you're going to make the most money. You're not going to make the most money trying to trade news what the Fed says or you know what what Trump did or you know this new law like you're not going to make money trading that. Just spend your time researching individual companies. You know call the CEO come to conferences like this. Become an expert and buy good companies and buy them at good values. And if they do really well you you trim along the way along the the ride higher. You know, trim means you're just selling small amounts as they rise. You know, you're reducing your risk where you're still in. You can rotate that capital into a better value. So, buy, hold, and trim. You know, buy good companies of good values, hold them, and then trim when they go way up. And if they don't work out, you know, if you're down 20 or 30%, you have to re-evaluate. If you can't find a good reason to hold them, then you sell and move on to a different company. So, for me, I just I I think you have to keep it simple. Well, I don't I don't think I've ever heard an interview summed up so succinctly. So, if if somebody happened to watch the end first, I guess that's that's all you need to know. Thank you so much for coming on to go over what's going on. This was really good. >> Yeah, my pleasure. Thanks for having me. >> Of course. And once again, I'm Charlotte Mloud with investingnews.com and this is Jordan Rodburn.