Rich Checkan: Silver to Outpace Gold in 2026, Use This Dip to Buy
Summary
Rich Checkan of @AssetStrategiesInternational shares his thoughts on the recent pullback in gold and silver prices, emphasizing …
Transcript
[music] I'm Charlotte Mloud with investing.com and here today with me is Rich Tucken, president and COO at Asset Strategies International. Thank you so much for being here. Oh, >> I'm glad to be here. Thanks for having me. >> Well, really good to have you here in person and it hasn't actually been too long since we last spoke. It was maybe 2 or 3 weeks ago, but there's been some changes in what's going on with gold and silver prices since then. So, it's definitely worth checking in again. As we were saying before we turned the camera on, we're at the New Orleans investment conference and really the main or a key topic of discussion is what's going on with gold and silver prices. They ran up. We're in this pullback right now. What are what are your thoughts there? Is this a a much needed consolidation? How are you seeing it? So apparently that doesn't go up unabated forever. [laughter] So you know the bottom line is long-term I don't see anything has changed. Uh when we saw the the initial pullback in gold the first one it turned out to be a few right uh and I think uh the damage was about 10% or so or something like that maybe a little more. Um, after the first one, I went back to my staff the next day and I said, "What fundamentally has changed?" Very simple question. And I I know the price changed, right? Clearly that went down, but what fundamentally has changed? And I still can't find any reason, you know, for it to pull back other than it's probably time. You know, we we had a little over 10% pullback, and, you know, put it in perspective, gold was moving up like 10% a week for how long, right? Um, and we had one 10% pullback. Uh, that being said, maybe it's not enough. We could see more. Um, but you know, the big question on everybody's mind is, is this the end? Is the beginning of the end? Is this the end? Um, and I don't see how that's possible. Uh, you know, there are a bunch of different signs we look at for the end of a bull market and none of them are firing. So, I just think the price changed. I think it's a healthy healthy very healthy consolidation and it's a dip not an end to a bull market which means it should be embraced not feared right >> well and maybe maybe say a little bit more about how this could go moving forward so you said we could see it pull back further I think a question on people that's one question people are thinking of and also how long would this last how how much time do we perhaps have before it starts to go up again >> it's only going to last until it's done now Is that vague enough and nebulous enough? Uh, no. It's it's it's going to last as long as it needs to. I mean, I I I think again it can go deeper. I would not be surprised to see it pull further back from here. Um, but it it really comes into how people interpret that, right? If if they're scared now and they get more scared, it could go pretty deep, right? Because then you'll have selling off out of fear. Um, I think it's a huge mistake, mind you. Um, but it could go a little deeper. Uh I've heard, you know, dropping down to 36, $3,700, uh for gold, uh which albeit significant is, you know, still really nothing in the big picture. Um well, how quickly it turns around, I I really don't know, Charlotte. I mean, if I did, I'd have retired long ago. Um but, uh you know, I don't see any reason for gold not to move higher. Um so, I would expect the turnaround should be fairly quick. I would say by the end of the year, January, February time frame, whatever, we should clearly be well on our way back up, but I don't know. And it doesn't matter is kind of my point. Um, again, the indicators I look for, you've heard them before. I look for sentiment. Um, Uber drivers aren't giving me tips, right? Uh, I look for geopolitical uh, peace, stability. It's not happening. In fact, we're going the other direction. And we're we're testing nuclear weapons now just so everybody can uh you know you look at uh social uh unrest. Um it's not just in the US, it's everywhere and it's not settling down. Uh interest rates are low and going lower. We just got another cut and notification of the end of quantitative tightening basically in his remarks afterward from Jerome Powell. Um the dollar little bit strength. It's it's but it's still not over 100 and it was 116 not very long ago. Um, so clearly a weak dollar and I don't think we're done weakening. Um, you've got a gold silver ratio that hasn't even started. The bull market is still at 83. Um, a go a Dow gold ratio at 11.9 or 11 12 that ought to get to five when this is all said and done. Um, and you know, I look for a price bare minimum of about $5,700 uh, and I said that 38 to $5,700. I think actually that's low figure and I think 10 years for this bull market is low because I fully believe that the central banks for three and a half years to four years have given us a head start on the gold price for this bull market. So none of these factors that would suggest an end to the bull market are firing. And my big one is Congress balancing budgets? No. So they're they're continuing to overspend. That means they've got to bridge the gap uh because they're not going to default on the reserve currency. They got to bridge the gap with monetary expansion. Um already uh showed an end to QT. Uh and uh that means that everything is going to cost more. Uh it's not changing. So a little pause, take advantage of it if you can, ride it out if you can't. >> I like I like those different signs that we would be at the And I know we have been through them before, but I think it's really helpful to remind people of so they can they can look at those and feel reassured. Maybe maybe a better question while we're in this pullback for gold could be for this next leg higher that could maybe be quite quite close. What might be the trigger there? And I imagine you could pull out any one of the factors that you've been mentioning as price drivers for gold. But what are you thinking? >> There's no question. I still think and we've talked about this before. I still think that um commercial lending could be an issue that sets everything, you know, a mess. Uh to for lack of a better word, I mean um that's an issue. Uh continuing to see countries pull away from the Treasury window. Um you know, we're we're stacking up debt and if we have the world stop buying our debt, that could be a real problem. Um a pullback in the stock market as always could trigger fear and concerns. Uh now and if that happens be careful cuz if you see a precipitous fall in the stock market expect don't be surprised expect to see gold and silver sell off too right away. And and the reason that happens is because there will be margin calls in the stock market. Uh people are going to go where they have liquidity which means selling gold and silver to meet margin calls and right away bargain hunters are going to swoop in and pick up cheap gold. So it will be short-lived but if the stock market falls precipitously expect gold and silver to pull back as well initially. >> Initially initially >> all right and I'm wondering so you had mentioned so we just had recently this past week the latest Fed meeting and of course we all know we got a rate cut there. You mentioned also in the comments about quantitative tightening and the end there and that is something I'm hearing a little bit less about. So, I'm wondering if you can talk about that and anything else you would pull out from between the lines of the Powell comments. >> Yeah. Well, the the the bottom line is I first off, I think he did a a lot of work at the the press conference of trying to tell people that nothing is guaranteed in December, right? So, don't expect that last rate cut, which tells me expect that last rate cut. I mean, there's no question in my mind they're going to cut it one more time. Um, I think he's getting a lot of pressure, but he's trying to look like he's not under pressure. uh my gut feeling. We we'll we'll talk at some point in the future to tell me if I'm right or wrong. Um the the QT or the end of QT, he basically came out and said that that they're they're they're going to stop running off uh the the um uh the assets off the balance sheet. Uh and basically he signaled an end that that they're going to be expanding the money supply. And we all know where that goes. There's a couple ways they can do that. They can decrease interest rates, right, and make money easier to get to. They could also um end QT which means they're moving to QE quantitative uh easing increasing the money supply and we know that is the cause that the effect of is increased prices of anything of value. Um so they can hit you in two ways and they just did. [laughter] >> Very interesting and we'll we'll come back and we'll check in with what happens later on also looking forward into 2026. So, we know that we have the end of Powell's term coming up and we know that they are >> if Trump is going to keep him on. >> Oh, you know, I I wasn't think Do you think? >> No, I don't think so. Um, so we we're pretty sure we're pretty sure that he's going to be on his way out. I wondered if you could talk about that. I know there are concerns about Fed independence because of course whoever is coming in is going to be very probably close to President Trump. >> Yeah, I I think so. And they're going to share the same philosophy. They're going to get one more vote. you know that that's going to be guided toward cutting interest rates uh making money flow easier. Um I I've never bought into the idea of Fed independence. I I think it is a show uh and smoking mirrors and in the end they do what they need to do. Uh for years I think they talked a game of a strong dollar, a strong dollar, a strong dollar as they let it weaken, you know. Um because ultimately when you spend too much, you need that uh um easing uh of interest rates in order to be able to handle the interest payments and service the debt. Um so I think we've been playing this game for a long time. Uh they just don't want it to make it look like they're not independent, but uh I I I can't imagine they're independent. Um might I could be wrong on that. It's just what I'm seeing tells me that they're doing whatever the administration kind of wants them to do. Well, and I'm I'm wondering about the consequences for inflation, which has not reached the 2% target. That seems to be out the window. Rates are already coming down. We see them or we expect them to come down further under this new potential Fed share. How how out of control could it get there? >> It could get very well out of control. I mean, when we eased the last time and you know, we we went down to like zero for a long time, right? Okay, so easy money was slowing for a very long time and that hit the marketplace and you know I think at the peak we were probably at what 9% or 8% or whatever interest rate maybe even 10 touching it. Um the the shadow stats if you will uh John I think it's John Williams I think he was calling we were 14 plus% in reality if we measured it the way we did in the 80s. I could be off but it's close. Um so it was actually I think higher than what was reported. Um and you know I think if we ease too much too fast we will quickly rebound to to high single digit maybe low double digit levels. Um so that is very possible. Now they're they're coming in and they're saying we don't have a choice. We have to do this because we're trying to balance labor and um you know interest rate or inflation and you know I don't know that they could solve this problem with interest rates uh in the labor department. So uh we'll see. It's going to be interesting. If it does rebound, expect it to shoot up pretty quickly. So, >> well, and if we put all of this together, what is your what are your thoughts on the overall health of the US economy? Because I think at this at this event in particular, we hear a lot of concerning things about the direction we're going, but at the same time, it seems like it's really hanging on for longer than people thought. >> I think again, I might be off on the numbers. I think growth is about half what it was last year. So, it's it's not a surging economy by any stretch of the imagination. Um, but I think, you know, if you look at it by itself, you know, in in absolute terms, it's okay. It's not great. Um, if you look at it versus other economies, I think we're doing just fine. You know, relatively, it's doing fine. Um, it doesn't mean it's strong. And I I still think that, you know, I've said this all along for the past four or five years. I think the economy is a strain on a lot of consumers uh especially the middle class and and the lower middle class or the lower classes. Um, so the folks that are at the lower end of the totem pole are really struggling in this economy. When you have um wellestablished professionals with decent paychecks coming in saying you got to sell gold to pay credit card bills or to pay off debt um or to pay bills in general, uh that's not a healthy economy, right? So I think, you know, we're seeing decent growth, not great growth, but I could be wrong. I don't think um salaries are keeping up with inflation and it haven't for years and it's making everything a bit of a struggle. I know folks that are making as much or more than they were in previous years and they can't get as much for it as they had in the past. Uh that tells me that uh wages are not keeping up. It is a difficult economy for consumers. Um, and I think it's less healthy than they they lead on, but it's not it's not horrible either. We can get through this. Um, [sighs and gasps] first step, balance the budget. Stop the bleeding. Don't let any more bleeding occur. And then you're not going to be able to cut the budget enough to make up for 38 trillion in debt. But if you can ease regulations, if you can uh enhance business growth uh through a number of different ways and you bring on some new entities like AI and other things, um you could juice growth to the point where you increase revenues and you can bring down that debt. I don't think debt at 38 trillion is is is the end. [clears throat] I don't think it's unfixable, but we really ought to get started. >> Well, and it it seems I don't know right now it seems a little bit hard. We're in this government shutdown. Nobody is agreeing with with each other. People pointed out to me, we're coming up on a midterm election, which could change things, but but you feel like it could potentially be be fixable. >> Yeah. Well, I think the the the dysfunction in DC has got to be fixed first. None of this happens unless, you know, people start talking to each other for God's sakes. I mean, um I I want to say, you know, with the contract with America with Nuke Gingrich and Tip O'Neal, they were adversaries going at each other, you know, tooth and nail. Uh, and then they go out and play a round of golf together. Um, none of that's happening now. Uh, if you don't agree with me, you're evil and you're you're I can't talk to you and and I hate you and everything else. And it's just it's not the way it ought to be. Um, we should be able to disagree. Um, we should be able to work things out and the will of the people should, you know, drive forward. So, if the majority says that this view is going forward, then that view goes goes forward. It's the way it is. Um, we've got to fix that dysfunction before we can fix any problems. I really think that's a major issue. >> All right. So, so we've got concerns about the economy for sure. Also concerns here about a stock market correction. And I think we can relate this back to I believe a slide that you used in your presentation here today, which is looking at gold versus various of the stock market indexes since the start of the millennium. And you can see even without a correction that we might or might not get, gold is coming out ahead. So, what would you say on that point? Well, I think it it talks to the weakness of the dollar and that trend, right? So, the the numbers, just so you know, um in 25 years since January 1st, 2000, uh the Dow's up 319% as of Halloween, right? So, as the end of the month is the last closing day I can give you. Um the S&P 500 is up 370%. The NASDAQ is up 474%. Now, none of that is bad. It's it's not terrible returns over a 25-y year period. Silver is up 812%. Okay, almost double uh some of these other indices. Gold up, 1288%. And it's down. It was up 13,400%. Um so what does that tell us? It tells us that those gains in the markets in dollar terms aren't as significant as we think they are. For instance, um you know, the Dow at 47,000, they are new nominal all-time highs and we keep making new highs and everybody's talking about how out of control it is. And I do think it's out of control in terms of valuations and it does need to correct. But um put it in perspective. Measure the Dow in gold right now. measured. The Dow measured in gold is only 60% of what it was when the.com bubble burst. That is the all-time absolute high for the for the Dow. We're only 60% of the way up there. It looks like we're at new highs because the dollar is so weak, right? Um, one last thought to put in on that idea. So, if we're looking for the end of a bull market, right? Typically that would come with about a 5 to one Dow to gold ratio. It should take uh or gold to Dow. It should take five ounces of gold to buy the Dow completely. Right now we're about at like 11.5 11.9. If we were going to get to five on the Dow to gold ratio, um gold either needs to get to $9,000 an ounce or the Dow at 47,000 needs to drop to 22. That's significant. The answer is probably somewhere in the middle on both of those numbers, I'm guessing. >> I I love how you always bring the numbers to back up what you're talking about. That that was very very useful to run through and I think it shows us where we could be headed. We're we're getting to the end here. I'm going to give you a fun question or at least we'll see if it's We'll see if it That's true. They're they're they're all fun. But if we look at at 2026, which do you think will be the best performer, gold or silver? In terms of price value and appreciation, I think it's going to be silver. There's no question. I think uh you know, we're not we're at the end, but I think we're past midway point and we're probably going toward late stages of a bull market that usually favors silver, right? So, I expect to see silver outpace gold at this point. And and and the trigger was people are starting to buy silver, right? Um central banks don't do that. So, for four years when it was all central banks, gold silver ratio didn't budge. In fact, it went higher. Now that investors are starting to buy gold, um, they also buy silver, too. And that's going to move faster because the silver is a smaller capitalized market. The same dollar here has a bigger impact than the dollar in the gold market. That's one part of it. Plus, the industrial fundamentals for silver are so good. Um, and I may misquote this, but I want to say there was 11 years of surplus production of silver up until about three, four years ago. And now we've had 3 four years of deficit production of silver and I think the first two canceled out 11 years of surplus. Okay, so the supply demand equation is fantastic for silver and it is in demand for solar cells, batteries, you name it. uh on top of the knockoff buying from gold and the fact that it still is a monetary metal. Maybe not to the extent of gold, but it is. >> Okay. So, nice setup for silver. Well, both of them in 2026, but >> well, I think silver will outperform. >> All right. All right. Okay. That was the fun question. Any final thoughts you would share with investors before I send you back out there? >> Yeah. Uh the only thing is, you know, for anybody out there, you know, getting a little, you know, knot in their stomach, you know, is this the end? What what should I do? Should I get out? The first thing is if you bought your gold for wealth insurance, unless you have a crisis, I don't care what the price action is, you don't get rid of it. You only sell it if you have a crisis. If you have gold and silver for profit, um I again, I don't think this is a time to cower in fear. I think this is a time to embrace. If you have the wherewithal, pick some up. I think you'll be buying well for the future. If you don't have the wherewithal, ride it out. Um the indicators, we need three or four of them at least to start gathering. We don't even have a single one firing and Congress is not changing its way. Show me a will in Congress to balance a budget and I'll tell you maybe gold's going to take a breather and go lower. Um until then, higher is where we're going. >> Okay. Well, in that case, I think we're safe for for quite some time. Well, thank you so much for coming on again to share your thoughts on Gold and Silver. This was great. >> I enjoyed it. Thanks for having me. Once again, I'm Charlotte Mloud with investingnews.com and this is Rich Check-in with Asset Strategies International.
Rich Checkan: Silver to Outpace Gold in 2026, Use This Dip to Buy
Summary
Rich Checkan of @AssetStrategiesInternational shares his thoughts on the recent pullback in gold and silver prices, emphasizing …Transcript
[music] I'm Charlotte Mloud with investing.com and here today with me is Rich Tucken, president and COO at Asset Strategies International. Thank you so much for being here. Oh, >> I'm glad to be here. Thanks for having me. >> Well, really good to have you here in person and it hasn't actually been too long since we last spoke. It was maybe 2 or 3 weeks ago, but there's been some changes in what's going on with gold and silver prices since then. So, it's definitely worth checking in again. As we were saying before we turned the camera on, we're at the New Orleans investment conference and really the main or a key topic of discussion is what's going on with gold and silver prices. They ran up. We're in this pullback right now. What are what are your thoughts there? Is this a a much needed consolidation? How are you seeing it? So apparently that doesn't go up unabated forever. [laughter] So you know the bottom line is long-term I don't see anything has changed. Uh when we saw the the initial pullback in gold the first one it turned out to be a few right uh and I think uh the damage was about 10% or so or something like that maybe a little more. Um, after the first one, I went back to my staff the next day and I said, "What fundamentally has changed?" Very simple question. And I I know the price changed, right? Clearly that went down, but what fundamentally has changed? And I still can't find any reason, you know, for it to pull back other than it's probably time. You know, we we had a little over 10% pullback, and, you know, put it in perspective, gold was moving up like 10% a week for how long, right? Um, and we had one 10% pullback. Uh, that being said, maybe it's not enough. We could see more. Um, but you know, the big question on everybody's mind is, is this the end? Is the beginning of the end? Is this the end? Um, and I don't see how that's possible. Uh, you know, there are a bunch of different signs we look at for the end of a bull market and none of them are firing. So, I just think the price changed. I think it's a healthy healthy very healthy consolidation and it's a dip not an end to a bull market which means it should be embraced not feared right >> well and maybe maybe say a little bit more about how this could go moving forward so you said we could see it pull back further I think a question on people that's one question people are thinking of and also how long would this last how how much time do we perhaps have before it starts to go up again >> it's only going to last until it's done now Is that vague enough and nebulous enough? Uh, no. It's it's it's going to last as long as it needs to. I mean, I I I think again it can go deeper. I would not be surprised to see it pull further back from here. Um, but it it really comes into how people interpret that, right? If if they're scared now and they get more scared, it could go pretty deep, right? Because then you'll have selling off out of fear. Um, I think it's a huge mistake, mind you. Um, but it could go a little deeper. Uh I've heard, you know, dropping down to 36, $3,700, uh for gold, uh which albeit significant is, you know, still really nothing in the big picture. Um well, how quickly it turns around, I I really don't know, Charlotte. I mean, if I did, I'd have retired long ago. Um but, uh you know, I don't see any reason for gold not to move higher. Um so, I would expect the turnaround should be fairly quick. I would say by the end of the year, January, February time frame, whatever, we should clearly be well on our way back up, but I don't know. And it doesn't matter is kind of my point. Um, again, the indicators I look for, you've heard them before. I look for sentiment. Um, Uber drivers aren't giving me tips, right? Uh, I look for geopolitical uh, peace, stability. It's not happening. In fact, we're going the other direction. And we're we're testing nuclear weapons now just so everybody can uh you know you look at uh social uh unrest. Um it's not just in the US, it's everywhere and it's not settling down. Uh interest rates are low and going lower. We just got another cut and notification of the end of quantitative tightening basically in his remarks afterward from Jerome Powell. Um the dollar little bit strength. It's it's but it's still not over 100 and it was 116 not very long ago. Um, so clearly a weak dollar and I don't think we're done weakening. Um, you've got a gold silver ratio that hasn't even started. The bull market is still at 83. Um, a go a Dow gold ratio at 11.9 or 11 12 that ought to get to five when this is all said and done. Um, and you know, I look for a price bare minimum of about $5,700 uh, and I said that 38 to $5,700. I think actually that's low figure and I think 10 years for this bull market is low because I fully believe that the central banks for three and a half years to four years have given us a head start on the gold price for this bull market. So none of these factors that would suggest an end to the bull market are firing. And my big one is Congress balancing budgets? No. So they're they're continuing to overspend. That means they've got to bridge the gap uh because they're not going to default on the reserve currency. They got to bridge the gap with monetary expansion. Um already uh showed an end to QT. Uh and uh that means that everything is going to cost more. Uh it's not changing. So a little pause, take advantage of it if you can, ride it out if you can't. >> I like I like those different signs that we would be at the And I know we have been through them before, but I think it's really helpful to remind people of so they can they can look at those and feel reassured. Maybe maybe a better question while we're in this pullback for gold could be for this next leg higher that could maybe be quite quite close. What might be the trigger there? And I imagine you could pull out any one of the factors that you've been mentioning as price drivers for gold. But what are you thinking? >> There's no question. I still think and we've talked about this before. I still think that um commercial lending could be an issue that sets everything, you know, a mess. Uh to for lack of a better word, I mean um that's an issue. Uh continuing to see countries pull away from the Treasury window. Um you know, we're we're stacking up debt and if we have the world stop buying our debt, that could be a real problem. Um a pullback in the stock market as always could trigger fear and concerns. Uh now and if that happens be careful cuz if you see a precipitous fall in the stock market expect don't be surprised expect to see gold and silver sell off too right away. And and the reason that happens is because there will be margin calls in the stock market. Uh people are going to go where they have liquidity which means selling gold and silver to meet margin calls and right away bargain hunters are going to swoop in and pick up cheap gold. So it will be short-lived but if the stock market falls precipitously expect gold and silver to pull back as well initially. >> Initially initially >> all right and I'm wondering so you had mentioned so we just had recently this past week the latest Fed meeting and of course we all know we got a rate cut there. You mentioned also in the comments about quantitative tightening and the end there and that is something I'm hearing a little bit less about. So, I'm wondering if you can talk about that and anything else you would pull out from between the lines of the Powell comments. >> Yeah. Well, the the the bottom line is I first off, I think he did a a lot of work at the the press conference of trying to tell people that nothing is guaranteed in December, right? So, don't expect that last rate cut, which tells me expect that last rate cut. I mean, there's no question in my mind they're going to cut it one more time. Um, I think he's getting a lot of pressure, but he's trying to look like he's not under pressure. uh my gut feeling. We we'll we'll talk at some point in the future to tell me if I'm right or wrong. Um the the QT or the end of QT, he basically came out and said that that they're they're they're going to stop running off uh the the um uh the assets off the balance sheet. Uh and basically he signaled an end that that they're going to be expanding the money supply. And we all know where that goes. There's a couple ways they can do that. They can decrease interest rates, right, and make money easier to get to. They could also um end QT which means they're moving to QE quantitative uh easing increasing the money supply and we know that is the cause that the effect of is increased prices of anything of value. Um so they can hit you in two ways and they just did. [laughter] >> Very interesting and we'll we'll come back and we'll check in with what happens later on also looking forward into 2026. So, we know that we have the end of Powell's term coming up and we know that they are >> if Trump is going to keep him on. >> Oh, you know, I I wasn't think Do you think? >> No, I don't think so. Um, so we we're pretty sure we're pretty sure that he's going to be on his way out. I wondered if you could talk about that. I know there are concerns about Fed independence because of course whoever is coming in is going to be very probably close to President Trump. >> Yeah, I I think so. And they're going to share the same philosophy. They're going to get one more vote. you know that that's going to be guided toward cutting interest rates uh making money flow easier. Um I I've never bought into the idea of Fed independence. I I think it is a show uh and smoking mirrors and in the end they do what they need to do. Uh for years I think they talked a game of a strong dollar, a strong dollar, a strong dollar as they let it weaken, you know. Um because ultimately when you spend too much, you need that uh um easing uh of interest rates in order to be able to handle the interest payments and service the debt. Um so I think we've been playing this game for a long time. Uh they just don't want it to make it look like they're not independent, but uh I I I can't imagine they're independent. Um might I could be wrong on that. It's just what I'm seeing tells me that they're doing whatever the administration kind of wants them to do. Well, and I'm I'm wondering about the consequences for inflation, which has not reached the 2% target. That seems to be out the window. Rates are already coming down. We see them or we expect them to come down further under this new potential Fed share. How how out of control could it get there? >> It could get very well out of control. I mean, when we eased the last time and you know, we we went down to like zero for a long time, right? Okay, so easy money was slowing for a very long time and that hit the marketplace and you know I think at the peak we were probably at what 9% or 8% or whatever interest rate maybe even 10 touching it. Um the the shadow stats if you will uh John I think it's John Williams I think he was calling we were 14 plus% in reality if we measured it the way we did in the 80s. I could be off but it's close. Um so it was actually I think higher than what was reported. Um and you know I think if we ease too much too fast we will quickly rebound to to high single digit maybe low double digit levels. Um so that is very possible. Now they're they're coming in and they're saying we don't have a choice. We have to do this because we're trying to balance labor and um you know interest rate or inflation and you know I don't know that they could solve this problem with interest rates uh in the labor department. So uh we'll see. It's going to be interesting. If it does rebound, expect it to shoot up pretty quickly. So, >> well, and if we put all of this together, what is your what are your thoughts on the overall health of the US economy? Because I think at this at this event in particular, we hear a lot of concerning things about the direction we're going, but at the same time, it seems like it's really hanging on for longer than people thought. >> I think again, I might be off on the numbers. I think growth is about half what it was last year. So, it's it's not a surging economy by any stretch of the imagination. Um, but I think, you know, if you look at it by itself, you know, in in absolute terms, it's okay. It's not great. Um, if you look at it versus other economies, I think we're doing just fine. You know, relatively, it's doing fine. Um, it doesn't mean it's strong. And I I still think that, you know, I've said this all along for the past four or five years. I think the economy is a strain on a lot of consumers uh especially the middle class and and the lower middle class or the lower classes. Um, so the folks that are at the lower end of the totem pole are really struggling in this economy. When you have um wellestablished professionals with decent paychecks coming in saying you got to sell gold to pay credit card bills or to pay off debt um or to pay bills in general, uh that's not a healthy economy, right? So I think, you know, we're seeing decent growth, not great growth, but I could be wrong. I don't think um salaries are keeping up with inflation and it haven't for years and it's making everything a bit of a struggle. I know folks that are making as much or more than they were in previous years and they can't get as much for it as they had in the past. Uh that tells me that uh wages are not keeping up. It is a difficult economy for consumers. Um, and I think it's less healthy than they they lead on, but it's not it's not horrible either. We can get through this. Um, [sighs and gasps] first step, balance the budget. Stop the bleeding. Don't let any more bleeding occur. And then you're not going to be able to cut the budget enough to make up for 38 trillion in debt. But if you can ease regulations, if you can uh enhance business growth uh through a number of different ways and you bring on some new entities like AI and other things, um you could juice growth to the point where you increase revenues and you can bring down that debt. I don't think debt at 38 trillion is is is the end. [clears throat] I don't think it's unfixable, but we really ought to get started. >> Well, and it it seems I don't know right now it seems a little bit hard. We're in this government shutdown. Nobody is agreeing with with each other. People pointed out to me, we're coming up on a midterm election, which could change things, but but you feel like it could potentially be be fixable. >> Yeah. Well, I think the the the dysfunction in DC has got to be fixed first. None of this happens unless, you know, people start talking to each other for God's sakes. I mean, um I I want to say, you know, with the contract with America with Nuke Gingrich and Tip O'Neal, they were adversaries going at each other, you know, tooth and nail. Uh, and then they go out and play a round of golf together. Um, none of that's happening now. Uh, if you don't agree with me, you're evil and you're you're I can't talk to you and and I hate you and everything else. And it's just it's not the way it ought to be. Um, we should be able to disagree. Um, we should be able to work things out and the will of the people should, you know, drive forward. So, if the majority says that this view is going forward, then that view goes goes forward. It's the way it is. Um, we've got to fix that dysfunction before we can fix any problems. I really think that's a major issue. >> All right. So, so we've got concerns about the economy for sure. Also concerns here about a stock market correction. And I think we can relate this back to I believe a slide that you used in your presentation here today, which is looking at gold versus various of the stock market indexes since the start of the millennium. And you can see even without a correction that we might or might not get, gold is coming out ahead. So, what would you say on that point? Well, I think it it talks to the weakness of the dollar and that trend, right? So, the the numbers, just so you know, um in 25 years since January 1st, 2000, uh the Dow's up 319% as of Halloween, right? So, as the end of the month is the last closing day I can give you. Um the S&P 500 is up 370%. The NASDAQ is up 474%. Now, none of that is bad. It's it's not terrible returns over a 25-y year period. Silver is up 812%. Okay, almost double uh some of these other indices. Gold up, 1288%. And it's down. It was up 13,400%. Um so what does that tell us? It tells us that those gains in the markets in dollar terms aren't as significant as we think they are. For instance, um you know, the Dow at 47,000, they are new nominal all-time highs and we keep making new highs and everybody's talking about how out of control it is. And I do think it's out of control in terms of valuations and it does need to correct. But um put it in perspective. Measure the Dow in gold right now. measured. The Dow measured in gold is only 60% of what it was when the.com bubble burst. That is the all-time absolute high for the for the Dow. We're only 60% of the way up there. It looks like we're at new highs because the dollar is so weak, right? Um, one last thought to put in on that idea. So, if we're looking for the end of a bull market, right? Typically that would come with about a 5 to one Dow to gold ratio. It should take uh or gold to Dow. It should take five ounces of gold to buy the Dow completely. Right now we're about at like 11.5 11.9. If we were going to get to five on the Dow to gold ratio, um gold either needs to get to $9,000 an ounce or the Dow at 47,000 needs to drop to 22. That's significant. The answer is probably somewhere in the middle on both of those numbers, I'm guessing. >> I I love how you always bring the numbers to back up what you're talking about. That that was very very useful to run through and I think it shows us where we could be headed. We're we're getting to the end here. I'm going to give you a fun question or at least we'll see if it's We'll see if it That's true. They're they're they're all fun. But if we look at at 2026, which do you think will be the best performer, gold or silver? In terms of price value and appreciation, I think it's going to be silver. There's no question. I think uh you know, we're not we're at the end, but I think we're past midway point and we're probably going toward late stages of a bull market that usually favors silver, right? So, I expect to see silver outpace gold at this point. And and and the trigger was people are starting to buy silver, right? Um central banks don't do that. So, for four years when it was all central banks, gold silver ratio didn't budge. In fact, it went higher. Now that investors are starting to buy gold, um, they also buy silver, too. And that's going to move faster because the silver is a smaller capitalized market. The same dollar here has a bigger impact than the dollar in the gold market. That's one part of it. Plus, the industrial fundamentals for silver are so good. Um, and I may misquote this, but I want to say there was 11 years of surplus production of silver up until about three, four years ago. And now we've had 3 four years of deficit production of silver and I think the first two canceled out 11 years of surplus. Okay, so the supply demand equation is fantastic for silver and it is in demand for solar cells, batteries, you name it. uh on top of the knockoff buying from gold and the fact that it still is a monetary metal. Maybe not to the extent of gold, but it is. >> Okay. So, nice setup for silver. Well, both of them in 2026, but >> well, I think silver will outperform. >> All right. All right. Okay. That was the fun question. Any final thoughts you would share with investors before I send you back out there? >> Yeah. Uh the only thing is, you know, for anybody out there, you know, getting a little, you know, knot in their stomach, you know, is this the end? What what should I do? Should I get out? The first thing is if you bought your gold for wealth insurance, unless you have a crisis, I don't care what the price action is, you don't get rid of it. You only sell it if you have a crisis. If you have gold and silver for profit, um I again, I don't think this is a time to cower in fear. I think this is a time to embrace. If you have the wherewithal, pick some up. I think you'll be buying well for the future. If you don't have the wherewithal, ride it out. Um the indicators, we need three or four of them at least to start gathering. We don't even have a single one firing and Congress is not changing its way. Show me a will in Congress to balance a budget and I'll tell you maybe gold's going to take a breather and go lower. Um until then, higher is where we're going. >> Okay. Well, in that case, I think we're safe for for quite some time. Well, thank you so much for coming on again to share your thoughts on Gold and Silver. This was great. >> I enjoyed it. Thanks for having me. Once again, I'm Charlotte Mloud with investingnews.com and this is Rich Check-in with Asset Strategies International.