Investor Summary
Fund Strategy
FUND PERFORMANCE AS OF 31st December 2025
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
Nixon Capital's Q4 2025 commentary emphasizes their investment philosophy of looking both at market perceptions and along underlying business realities, drawing from C.S. Lewis's concept of different perspectives revealing different truths. The firm argues that speculation and forecasting are largely wasted efforts, noting that geopolitical experts and billionaires were wrong about tariff impacts and market performance in 2025. They highlight how President Trump's tariffs initially disrupted consumer-related stocks, with some falling 50%, as investors focused solely on negative assumptions about earnings impact and demand headwinds. However, Nixon Capital's deeper analysis revealed companies were adapting through inventory pre-buying, manufacturing shifts, vendor concessions, and moderate price increases, reducing tariff headwinds by 30-60%. The firm's most painful mistakes occurred when they thought they were analyzing fundamentals but were actually just following market perceptions. They emphasize that attractive opportunities often emerge when market participants fixate on surface-level metrics without understanding underlying business dynamics and adaptation capabilities.
Nixon Capital believes in separating perception from reality by looking both at market prices and along underlying business fundamentals, focusing on identifying where price and value diverge rather than engaging in futile forecasting exercises.
The firm emphasizes that forecasting precision is impossible given the number of variables and unpredictable events. They focus on adapting to the investment landscape and looking both at and along opportunities to uncover durable, compounding businesses rather than attempting to predict specific outcomes for 2026 and beyond.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14 2026 | 2025 Q4 | - | consumer, Investment Philosophy, Perspective, tariffs, value | - | President Trump's tariffs created meaningful disruption for U.S. companies with international manufacturing footprints. Companies responded by pre-buying inventory, shifting manufacturing exposure rapidly, instituting vendor concessions, and raising prices moderately. These actions reduced tariff headwinds by an estimated 30-60% as markets recognized this reality. |
| Sep 30 2025 | 2025 Q3 | - | AI, Bubbles, Capex, infrastructure, Sentiment | - | Nixon warns of extreme AI-driven euphoria, with capital cycles and valuations detached from fundamentals despite massive CAPEX footprints. The firm highlights unsustainable spending trajectories and historical parallels to prior tech bubbles. AI optionality dominates investor psychology, creating fertile ground for future mispricings in overlooked cash-generative businesses. |
| Jun 30 2025 | 2025 Q2 | - | - | - | |
| Mar 31 2025 | 2025 Q1 | - | - | - | |
| Dec 31 2024 | 2024 Q4 | - | - | - | |
| Sep 30 2024 | 2024 Q3 | - | - | - | |
| Jun 30 2024 | 2024 Q2 | - | - | - | |
| Mar 31 2024 | 2024 Q1 | - | - | - | |
| Dec 31 2023 | 2023 Q4 | - | - | - | |
| Sep 30 2023 | 2023 Q3 | - | - | - | |
| Jun 30 2023 | 2023 Q2 | - | - | - | |
| Mar 31 2023 | 2023 Q1 | - | - | - | |
| Dec 31 2022 | 2022 Q4 | - | - | - | |
| Sep 30 2022 | 2022 Q3 | - | - | - | |
| Jun 30 2022 | 2022 Q2 | - | - | - | |
| Mar 31 2022 | 2022 Q1 | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
Trade PolicyRecent tariff policies continued to negatively impact U.S. consumers and companies throughout the year. However, international companies have been finding new trade arrangements and growth opportunities, benefiting from shifts in global trade patterns as the new U.S. administration alters terms of international cooperation. |
Tariffs International Growth Cooperation Impact |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process through tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code. The firm views AI as a force multiplier for human judgment rather than a replacement, emphasizing the Kasparov Law principle. They believe the market narrative around AI displacement is swinging to unhelpful extremes, creating investment opportunities. |
Machine Learning Automation Software Productivity Innovation |
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| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
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