Fed Cuts Rates & Launches $40B Liquidity Boost: Wagner on ‘Parabolic’ Silver vs. Gold Consolidation
Summary
Precious Metals: The guest is broadly bullish on precious metals, highlighting strong momentum and liquidity-driven support.
Silver: Silver broke above its long-standing ceiling and prior double-top near $54, surged past $62, and carries a short-term target of $65–$68 in Q1 next year.
Gold: Gold is consolidating above key $4,200 support with an eye toward ~$4,300, while a close below ~$4,195 could signal a correction toward $4,000.
Technical Setup: Silver’s parabolic move warrants caution for sharp pullbacks, whereas gold shows healthy consolidation; silver volume remains robust while gold volume has tapered.
Fed Policy: A 25 bps rate cut and $40B/month in T-bill reserve management purchases add liquidity, with fewer cuts expected next year and potential leadership change impacting metals.
US Dollar: The dollar index slipped below 100 toward ~98.7, and further weakness could support metals, though gold and silver have already rallied against a firm dollar.
Companies/Tickers: No specific public companies or tickers were discussed; the focus was on commodities and sector-level dynamics.
Transcript
Welcome back. I'm Jeremy Saver. Before we get to gold and silver, let's begin with this news from the Federal Reserve because the FOMC has decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, exactly as expected. Now, there were three dissents. Austin Goldsby and Jeff Schmid opposed the cut, while Mirren argued for a larger 50 basis point move. Now, the new summary of economic projections shows that six of the 19 officials did not support a cut and the median dot for 2026 is unchanged. And and one more development that the market is watching very closely today. The Fed says it's also going to begin what it calls quote reserve management purchases this week, $40 billion per month in Treasury bills. It's a direct liquidity boost. And uh our audience pays close attention to this. Now, if you've been watching Kitco News, you know several of our guests have been calling for the Fed to move in exactly this direction. Now, turning over to metals, everybody is watching it. Gold's holding firm. Even with this FOMC news, above $4,200 announced today, silver is trading above $60, still almost touching records, nearly 20% above the long-standing $50 ceiling that held more than four decades. And if you've been following this program, you know one analyst called both of these moves and the market didn't believe him. Gary Wagner told this audience that silver was headed for 50. He said gold could stretch to 4,300 by year end. Now today both metals are sitting either just below or well above those levels. So today's interview isn't about whether he was right. That's already been answered. But this final conversation of the year is about what comes next. The ceilings, the new risks, and how to read a market that's moving faster than anything we've seen in years. Huh, Gary? Joining me now, of course, Jerry Gary Wagner from the goldfor.com, our very own. What a year >> that What a year. What a year. Thanks for having me. I mean, silver has taken so many by surprise. >> Uh, this last move, even today's move is phenomenal. We're looking at March futures 6208 620 60. It's a fast market. $62.13 right now uh bases the March futures contract. So, we do have silver moving and moving aggressively to the upside. Every tick higher is a new all-time record high for silver. It reminds me of the days in gold when um a couple of times every month we were reporting yet another all-time record and silver was sluggish. It was very sluggish, meandering higher, but it had that double top right around $54 as you can see here. Uh the first top occurred uh middle of October. The second top occurred middle of November. And once it broke above there, look at the size of this one candle uh from 5378 and this is a daily candle to 57015. Quite a move. So once it silver was able to break above former records right around 54 again March futures on this it was up up and away silver would trade really parabolic until it hit about 59. It consolidated for just a few days and then of course on Tuesday yesterday we had a dynamic move in silver moving from about 58.50 50 to $61 and now we're above 62. Really exciting times. Really exciting times. >> Yeah. I mean, you know, I Gary, we know, right? I mean, silver is has had decades of false starts and and failed rallies. Why did this one behave differently from a structural standpoint? I mean, it looks a lot different from the chart. Well, the only thing I could say is when when we look at gold, you'll see that that has been consolidating for about two weeks now. It has maintained and this is based most active February contract in futures. Uh a price point above 42. It came close to but not below it. We've seen it wick meaning intraday lows go below that point. But it's been fairly steady. It has moved in a manner in which we would call consolidation >> and money moved I believe from gold to silver as a avenue in which they saw better upside potential in a shorter period of time. >> Yeah. Hey, let's stay on silver just for a quick moment before gold. I mean the metals everyone is just watching them going into the holiday season. But I mean, you know, silver above 60 is not a typical market. And and from your perspective, does this still behave like a controlled kind of trend or or does this now start to look like a market running ahead of itself technically speaking? I mean, where do you think we go from here? >> Well, if we're looking at this over chart, you can see that we had uh from July through October a slow and methodical move from about 37 up to the first of these double tops at 54. Considering that silver was trading at around 32 at the beginning of the year, that's quite a move. But it did correct and that was I believe a very healthy correction. We needed that. Then it formed the double top middle of November and came down a little bit. It wicked to about 49. When I say wicked, I mean the intraday low on the candlestick chart. And then we saw this parabolic move. The parabolic move began last week of November right around $50 and took silver to $59. Then we had another period, a short period. Let me blow this up a little bit, but a short period of consolidation in which the lows that came in were below 60, but you know 57 70 69 in that area and then these last two days we have really seen it shoot up. specifically yesterday when we had a move in silver from 58.44 to $61 and now it seems as though we're we're settling down. We are at a new all-time record high in March silver now 6214 6215 and that's that's quite a move. We did see it under pressure earlier this morning along with gold uh but just slightly under pressure. It did open well below its current pricing and the low is just below yesterday's closing price or high. >> Yeah, well said. All right, let's shift over to uh to gold exclusively gold because I mean you know it's holding above 4200 today. Now you projected 4,300 by year end. And you know that's what I like about you G. You've always had a nice kind of conservative way about you. You're not just calling for 10,000 but you've been ahead of this call all year. here. I mean, I've been here 2 years and it's been wild to kind of go back and review the tape. So, explain how you know the current slope of trend either supports or challenges that projection and take your time. I mean, you can walk us through the structure of the pattern, the momentum behind it. Well, when we look at uh what gold has done, the tact or angle um from the lows that came in around August at about 3,300 up to the all-time record high was in no way that we would look at as what we call parabolic. That was really until um Friday, October the 10th, and then we had a very short parabolic rise. It sold off the next day and this is the highest close on record at around 4369. And from there we did get a healthy correction. The following day it would go from around 43 and then close much lower at 4145. It would continue to drift lower, kind of form a double bottom. The double bottom came in the last week of October, first week of November, and then it made what we're calling a lower high. I'm comparing it to the all-time record high, but it made a higher low. And as a market technician, we do have a range in gold, which is good. In other words, silver is a lot more difficult to call a top >> because simply put, we've never been here before. So, it is all speculation and we might base that on volume and momentum. As you can see, volume on the gold chart that we're looking at has been consistently going down. Right now, we're sitting at 158,000. That's open interest as compared to 500,000 that occurred as recently as the middle of October. So, volume has decreased. We are absolutely in the holiday seasons, but there's been very little movement in gold. We have held 4,200 effectively. We are not near the all-time record high. We're sitting just under 43. And that that's what I was looking for to finish off the year. Obviously, it's more likely that as long as it holds, you see there's one trend line that comes in. It's just a a horizontal line right around uh 4200. To me, that's a critical critical price support on a technical basis. It matches up with this one secondary top that was the lower top. But the fact that it came in and then made a higher high than the previous high, that is extremely bullish. The fact that it has gotten some momentum back and you can see right now it is trading higher on the day in terms of net change for the day. It is now up about $25$26 on the day. So that's quite eloquent for gold. Certainly not near these tops, but we are at the price point in which we're seeing solid support at least, call it since the beginning of December, end of November, above $4,200. And at the beginning of the year, I doubt that I would have made a statement that we'll see gold well above um $4,4200 by the end of the year. It took so many people by surprise. >> Yeah. A lot of it was dollar-based, but people are flocking to an intrinsic asset class that has had value by cultures and countries uh year after year, century after century, and that has not changed. >> Yeah. Yeah. Well said. Uh okay. Well, let's talk about what's not popular on the program. Let's talk about risk because obviously every strong rally has a point where the market needs to take a breath. I mean for gold what would be kind of one technical level where you would say okay corrections underway? >> Well you would have to look at uh this line this trend line that I've got just below 4200. It matches this top that came in about the middle of November. And so on a technical basis, a close, not a wick, meaning not an intraday low, but a closing price below 42 4195 could signal the beginning of a correction. A real correction would, in my opinion, have the ability to take gold back to 4,000. That's the next level of major support is really at 4,000. But we haven't gotten an indication. we've gotten a consolidating market and that tends to be healthy. We do get consolidating markets before a sell-off, but more likely when we see it consolidating like here it is right before a huge move to the upside. You can see that right here it consolidate and then pops. Uh typically after a big move the market will consolidate. This was a higher high than the previous high. Although it is not near the all-time record high. The fact that after it came down, we got this lower high, but then we had a higher low and now we have a higher high as compared to the high that came in in the middle of November. >> Yeah. Yeah. Wow. What a fascinating uh way to end the year. Uh okay. Well, let's ask you the same kind of question for silver, Gary. I just I know you got to bring that chart one more up. I mean what what price kind of breaks you uh tells you that the market is shifting from rally to retracement and just to add to one layer because as our audience knows I mean it's quite volatile explain how fast a correction could unfold in a market that's that's moved this quickly. Well, the best way to look at it is if we look at uh a consolidation middle of July, silver's at 38 and then in August it's at 38. It meanders. When I say meanders, it slowly picks up steam breaking through 40, 41, 43. And then when it sells off, we have this big red candle. In other words, the day of the selloff in silver, we had silver open almost uh just shy of $54 and then close well below it at 51. Those kinds of large move large moves down following a sizable price sent is our first signal. But we need to see what we call follow-through buying. Now, in the case of this top here, the next day you had a small up day, but then you had a really strong sell-off. So, in essence, uh, from October 21st when it went back to 48, beginning at $54, we saw a a sizable sell-off, a $6 price decline really in a short period of time from the middle of October to the end of October. So, about two weeks. The key is that the breaking point or a large red candle, meaning a significant move down, is an indication that we really need to watch >> to see if there's going to be follow- through selling or if it's consolidation like we're seeing here because the healthiest way a silver can move up is a strong move up and then sideways action, even if it comes down. For example, here it went from 59 down to 57. That's a $2 move. While that is uh not peanuts, it's a sizable move. It's nothing like the moves we saw here where we saw $6 an ounce price declines. Now, the key is right now it has back silver has backed off of the highs, but it's backed off above $62. Again, this is uh March futures, and that is significant. Uh the fact of the matter is we've definitely broken above this consolidation that came right around $59. Now we're at 62. My upside shortterm target uh not for the end of this year but the first quarter of next year is anywhere between 65 and $68 uh Q1 2026. if we see silver continue to ma maintain this kind of upward momentum. >> Yeah, well said. Well, I mean, we just love to see the support at this point. I mean, in these prices. Um, okay. Well, I just got to ask you quick here, G. I mean, what about the dollar? Just because I mean, gold and silver have rallied against a firm dollar. I mean, technically, what does that tell you? Well, the dollar has been firm in terms of the tops back above 100 that in the first part of November and it started the rally at about 96. So that's significant. A 4% increase against the basket of currencies is swayed again. You can see this double top in the dollar and then over well let's say uh since November 21st to current pricing we have seen it break back down significantly below 100. We're currently on the index at 98.669 and today um it has declined by 6/10 of a percent. So, it's a significant decline in the dollar breaking through this shortterm potential support that comes in around 98.90. Broke through there with the vengeance on a technical basis. There really isn't any key support if it doesn't hold this area because there is some technical reasons that we would look for this to be potential support. Although, I don't believe that that will be the case. I think it'll drift lower. We want to look to see if it does drift lower. What happens at around 9830? Currently, we are at 9868. >> Yeah. Wow. 98.68. All right, Gary. I mean, you you've walked us through the technical picture. We've kind of talked about gold pushing higher even with that firm US dollar. So, let me wrap by kind of widening the lens just a little bit here. I mean, as we we head into 2026, what are the broader market conditions that you'll be watching kind of most closely from your perch over there? You know, the factors that you think will matter for gold's next major trend going into next year. >> Well, obviously, uh, the economy, dollar strength or weakness, whether this selloff from 100 down to 98 continues. That's important. Another big change that's going to occur next year, and I think that people are underestimating how big of a change it could be, is a change in leadership at the Fed because Powell is on his final days and Trump is still making a decision as to who he's going to bring in to take the helm. uh for whatever people want to say about Powell in terms of the negative, he he did a lot of good and kept the the dual mandate focused clearly uh which is inflation under 2% although he never reached that target and we do see cracks in employment right now. So we've got a troublesome scenario potential scenario that the Fed is going to have to resolve. Now the interesting thing is that it has one primary tool and that is to maintain raise or lower bed funds rate which controls interest rates pretty much worldwide but definitely here for inflation we're still sitting around 3% they wanted to 2% and the way the Fed would accomplish that with their tools is to raise rates but with the labor market showing signs of weakness the way that you uh kind support the labor market and add jobs to the uh the job force here in North America is the opposite. You want to lower rates. >> So, how does the Fed deal with a dual mandate in which each of the dual mandates needs the opposite action to put a handle on it? In other words, to prop up employment, you want to lower rates to get inflation down to the 2% target when it's sitting at three. you want to raise rates. So, by virtue of seeing what they focus on, so they did do a rate cut, of course, today, but it's only anticipated, I believe, and I'm going to have to look closer at this, but there aren't going to be as many rate cuts next year as this year. This year we had three, we're anticipating two next year. And it's going to be the leadership at the Fed and how that affects the economy that I'm going to look at most closely for a potential to really have a significant impact on not only the economy, GDP, labor force, but that as it bleeds into what we focus on, which is gold and silver or precious metals pricing. >> Yeah. Yeah. Well said. And it's even been hard to uh to analyze. Although, as I mentioned, Gary, I mean, you've been pretty accurate here. Uh just quickly before I let you go, I mean as we approach the holidays because you brought up a good topic here. I mean this time of year is usually quieter for gold and silver. I mean based on the strength of this move that we just saw. I mean do you expect metals to kind of cool off the way that they normally do during the holiday season or is this year kind of shaping up to be different from your perspective? >> Well, you know, we're certainly not seeing that in silver. Uh volume has remained really active. If you look at volume right here, it's close to the peak that we got in October and it's significantly above average volume through the summertime last year. So, we're not seeing a um a distortion in terms of volume moving the markets unrealistically because of lack of liquidity. If anything, we're seeing a very active market with strong open interest with strong volume in silver. In regards to gold, we have seen gold's volume decline significantly uh from what we'll call the uh the end of the fall months, September and October. We had significant volume. We are seeing the decline there. So, if we're going to see things slow down, we're certainly not seeing it in silver. We certainly are seeing it in gold. And that's indicative of the fact first of all it stayed above 4200 but it hasn't made a real move to the upside. It's still within this range of around call it uh um 4290 on the high side and 4200 on the low side. And that tells me that we could see more consolidation in gold and possibly higher prices in silver as it you it uses this time to stretch that all-time record high. Um and maybe close the year out significantly higher. Uh silver is right now breaking, as I said, broke through 62. If it breaks through 63 or stays in this area, that's what I'm looking for. I'm looking for stability. uh because as long as it's moving up parabolically, I fear hard uh corrections on the downside. So, we'll have to see. We're not seeing that right now. >> Yeah. Well said, man. That's what I've been hearing. All right, Gary Wgner, of course. We appreciate your insight, my friend. Happy holidays, of course. And check out Gary at the goldfor.com for more insights. You've been ahead of it all year, my friend. Thanks for this. >> Thank you so much. I look forward to a lot of good interviews next year and want to wish all of our viewers a great holiday, happy, healthy, and prosperous 2026. That is my wish to you. >> Well said. Can't believe it's already 2026 coming up. It just blows my mind. All right, G. Thanks, mate. Appreciate it. We'll see you soon. See you in the new year. >> You got it. >> Okay. With the Fed's decision today now in the books, a 25 basis point rate cut, a fresh wave of liquidity through those reserve management purchases. We'll be watching closely how markets digest this in the days ahead. Now, gold holding above $4,200. Silver north of 60 gives us plenty to monitor as we move towards in the end of the year and into 2026. Now, we'll keep an eye on every development and bring you the latest here at Kicko News. If you haven't already, make sure you hit subscribe. I'm Jeremy Safford. Thanks for watching.
Fed Cuts Rates & Launches $40B Liquidity Boost: Wagner on ‘Parabolic’ Silver vs. Gold Consolidation
Summary
Transcript
Welcome back. I'm Jeremy Saver. Before we get to gold and silver, let's begin with this news from the Federal Reserve because the FOMC has decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, exactly as expected. Now, there were three dissents. Austin Goldsby and Jeff Schmid opposed the cut, while Mirren argued for a larger 50 basis point move. Now, the new summary of economic projections shows that six of the 19 officials did not support a cut and the median dot for 2026 is unchanged. And and one more development that the market is watching very closely today. The Fed says it's also going to begin what it calls quote reserve management purchases this week, $40 billion per month in Treasury bills. It's a direct liquidity boost. And uh our audience pays close attention to this. Now, if you've been watching Kitco News, you know several of our guests have been calling for the Fed to move in exactly this direction. Now, turning over to metals, everybody is watching it. Gold's holding firm. Even with this FOMC news, above $4,200 announced today, silver is trading above $60, still almost touching records, nearly 20% above the long-standing $50 ceiling that held more than four decades. And if you've been following this program, you know one analyst called both of these moves and the market didn't believe him. Gary Wagner told this audience that silver was headed for 50. He said gold could stretch to 4,300 by year end. Now today both metals are sitting either just below or well above those levels. So today's interview isn't about whether he was right. That's already been answered. But this final conversation of the year is about what comes next. The ceilings, the new risks, and how to read a market that's moving faster than anything we've seen in years. Huh, Gary? Joining me now, of course, Jerry Gary Wagner from the goldfor.com, our very own. What a year >> that What a year. What a year. Thanks for having me. I mean, silver has taken so many by surprise. >> Uh, this last move, even today's move is phenomenal. We're looking at March futures 6208 620 60. It's a fast market. $62.13 right now uh bases the March futures contract. So, we do have silver moving and moving aggressively to the upside. Every tick higher is a new all-time record high for silver. It reminds me of the days in gold when um a couple of times every month we were reporting yet another all-time record and silver was sluggish. It was very sluggish, meandering higher, but it had that double top right around $54 as you can see here. Uh the first top occurred uh middle of October. The second top occurred middle of November. And once it broke above there, look at the size of this one candle uh from 5378 and this is a daily candle to 57015. Quite a move. So once it silver was able to break above former records right around 54 again March futures on this it was up up and away silver would trade really parabolic until it hit about 59. It consolidated for just a few days and then of course on Tuesday yesterday we had a dynamic move in silver moving from about 58.50 50 to $61 and now we're above 62. Really exciting times. Really exciting times. >> Yeah. I mean, you know, I Gary, we know, right? I mean, silver is has had decades of false starts and and failed rallies. Why did this one behave differently from a structural standpoint? I mean, it looks a lot different from the chart. Well, the only thing I could say is when when we look at gold, you'll see that that has been consolidating for about two weeks now. It has maintained and this is based most active February contract in futures. Uh a price point above 42. It came close to but not below it. We've seen it wick meaning intraday lows go below that point. But it's been fairly steady. It has moved in a manner in which we would call consolidation >> and money moved I believe from gold to silver as a avenue in which they saw better upside potential in a shorter period of time. >> Yeah. Hey, let's stay on silver just for a quick moment before gold. I mean the metals everyone is just watching them going into the holiday season. But I mean, you know, silver above 60 is not a typical market. And and from your perspective, does this still behave like a controlled kind of trend or or does this now start to look like a market running ahead of itself technically speaking? I mean, where do you think we go from here? >> Well, if we're looking at this over chart, you can see that we had uh from July through October a slow and methodical move from about 37 up to the first of these double tops at 54. Considering that silver was trading at around 32 at the beginning of the year, that's quite a move. But it did correct and that was I believe a very healthy correction. We needed that. Then it formed the double top middle of November and came down a little bit. It wicked to about 49. When I say wicked, I mean the intraday low on the candlestick chart. And then we saw this parabolic move. The parabolic move began last week of November right around $50 and took silver to $59. Then we had another period, a short period. Let me blow this up a little bit, but a short period of consolidation in which the lows that came in were below 60, but you know 57 70 69 in that area and then these last two days we have really seen it shoot up. specifically yesterday when we had a move in silver from 58.44 to $61 and now it seems as though we're we're settling down. We are at a new all-time record high in March silver now 6214 6215 and that's that's quite a move. We did see it under pressure earlier this morning along with gold uh but just slightly under pressure. It did open well below its current pricing and the low is just below yesterday's closing price or high. >> Yeah, well said. All right, let's shift over to uh to gold exclusively gold because I mean you know it's holding above 4200 today. Now you projected 4,300 by year end. And you know that's what I like about you G. You've always had a nice kind of conservative way about you. You're not just calling for 10,000 but you've been ahead of this call all year. here. I mean, I've been here 2 years and it's been wild to kind of go back and review the tape. So, explain how you know the current slope of trend either supports or challenges that projection and take your time. I mean, you can walk us through the structure of the pattern, the momentum behind it. Well, when we look at uh what gold has done, the tact or angle um from the lows that came in around August at about 3,300 up to the all-time record high was in no way that we would look at as what we call parabolic. That was really until um Friday, October the 10th, and then we had a very short parabolic rise. It sold off the next day and this is the highest close on record at around 4369. And from there we did get a healthy correction. The following day it would go from around 43 and then close much lower at 4145. It would continue to drift lower, kind of form a double bottom. The double bottom came in the last week of October, first week of November, and then it made what we're calling a lower high. I'm comparing it to the all-time record high, but it made a higher low. And as a market technician, we do have a range in gold, which is good. In other words, silver is a lot more difficult to call a top >> because simply put, we've never been here before. So, it is all speculation and we might base that on volume and momentum. As you can see, volume on the gold chart that we're looking at has been consistently going down. Right now, we're sitting at 158,000. That's open interest as compared to 500,000 that occurred as recently as the middle of October. So, volume has decreased. We are absolutely in the holiday seasons, but there's been very little movement in gold. We have held 4,200 effectively. We are not near the all-time record high. We're sitting just under 43. And that that's what I was looking for to finish off the year. Obviously, it's more likely that as long as it holds, you see there's one trend line that comes in. It's just a a horizontal line right around uh 4200. To me, that's a critical critical price support on a technical basis. It matches up with this one secondary top that was the lower top. But the fact that it came in and then made a higher high than the previous high, that is extremely bullish. The fact that it has gotten some momentum back and you can see right now it is trading higher on the day in terms of net change for the day. It is now up about $25$26 on the day. So that's quite eloquent for gold. Certainly not near these tops, but we are at the price point in which we're seeing solid support at least, call it since the beginning of December, end of November, above $4,200. And at the beginning of the year, I doubt that I would have made a statement that we'll see gold well above um $4,4200 by the end of the year. It took so many people by surprise. >> Yeah. A lot of it was dollar-based, but people are flocking to an intrinsic asset class that has had value by cultures and countries uh year after year, century after century, and that has not changed. >> Yeah. Yeah. Well said. Uh okay. Well, let's talk about what's not popular on the program. Let's talk about risk because obviously every strong rally has a point where the market needs to take a breath. I mean for gold what would be kind of one technical level where you would say okay corrections underway? >> Well you would have to look at uh this line this trend line that I've got just below 4200. It matches this top that came in about the middle of November. And so on a technical basis, a close, not a wick, meaning not an intraday low, but a closing price below 42 4195 could signal the beginning of a correction. A real correction would, in my opinion, have the ability to take gold back to 4,000. That's the next level of major support is really at 4,000. But we haven't gotten an indication. we've gotten a consolidating market and that tends to be healthy. We do get consolidating markets before a sell-off, but more likely when we see it consolidating like here it is right before a huge move to the upside. You can see that right here it consolidate and then pops. Uh typically after a big move the market will consolidate. This was a higher high than the previous high. Although it is not near the all-time record high. The fact that after it came down, we got this lower high, but then we had a higher low and now we have a higher high as compared to the high that came in in the middle of November. >> Yeah. Yeah. Wow. What a fascinating uh way to end the year. Uh okay. Well, let's ask you the same kind of question for silver, Gary. I just I know you got to bring that chart one more up. I mean what what price kind of breaks you uh tells you that the market is shifting from rally to retracement and just to add to one layer because as our audience knows I mean it's quite volatile explain how fast a correction could unfold in a market that's that's moved this quickly. Well, the best way to look at it is if we look at uh a consolidation middle of July, silver's at 38 and then in August it's at 38. It meanders. When I say meanders, it slowly picks up steam breaking through 40, 41, 43. And then when it sells off, we have this big red candle. In other words, the day of the selloff in silver, we had silver open almost uh just shy of $54 and then close well below it at 51. Those kinds of large move large moves down following a sizable price sent is our first signal. But we need to see what we call follow-through buying. Now, in the case of this top here, the next day you had a small up day, but then you had a really strong sell-off. So, in essence, uh, from October 21st when it went back to 48, beginning at $54, we saw a a sizable sell-off, a $6 price decline really in a short period of time from the middle of October to the end of October. So, about two weeks. The key is that the breaking point or a large red candle, meaning a significant move down, is an indication that we really need to watch >> to see if there's going to be follow- through selling or if it's consolidation like we're seeing here because the healthiest way a silver can move up is a strong move up and then sideways action, even if it comes down. For example, here it went from 59 down to 57. That's a $2 move. While that is uh not peanuts, it's a sizable move. It's nothing like the moves we saw here where we saw $6 an ounce price declines. Now, the key is right now it has back silver has backed off of the highs, but it's backed off above $62. Again, this is uh March futures, and that is significant. Uh the fact of the matter is we've definitely broken above this consolidation that came right around $59. Now we're at 62. My upside shortterm target uh not for the end of this year but the first quarter of next year is anywhere between 65 and $68 uh Q1 2026. if we see silver continue to ma maintain this kind of upward momentum. >> Yeah, well said. Well, I mean, we just love to see the support at this point. I mean, in these prices. Um, okay. Well, I just got to ask you quick here, G. I mean, what about the dollar? Just because I mean, gold and silver have rallied against a firm dollar. I mean, technically, what does that tell you? Well, the dollar has been firm in terms of the tops back above 100 that in the first part of November and it started the rally at about 96. So that's significant. A 4% increase against the basket of currencies is swayed again. You can see this double top in the dollar and then over well let's say uh since November 21st to current pricing we have seen it break back down significantly below 100. We're currently on the index at 98.669 and today um it has declined by 6/10 of a percent. So, it's a significant decline in the dollar breaking through this shortterm potential support that comes in around 98.90. Broke through there with the vengeance on a technical basis. There really isn't any key support if it doesn't hold this area because there is some technical reasons that we would look for this to be potential support. Although, I don't believe that that will be the case. I think it'll drift lower. We want to look to see if it does drift lower. What happens at around 9830? Currently, we are at 9868. >> Yeah. Wow. 98.68. All right, Gary. I mean, you you've walked us through the technical picture. We've kind of talked about gold pushing higher even with that firm US dollar. So, let me wrap by kind of widening the lens just a little bit here. I mean, as we we head into 2026, what are the broader market conditions that you'll be watching kind of most closely from your perch over there? You know, the factors that you think will matter for gold's next major trend going into next year. >> Well, obviously, uh, the economy, dollar strength or weakness, whether this selloff from 100 down to 98 continues. That's important. Another big change that's going to occur next year, and I think that people are underestimating how big of a change it could be, is a change in leadership at the Fed because Powell is on his final days and Trump is still making a decision as to who he's going to bring in to take the helm. uh for whatever people want to say about Powell in terms of the negative, he he did a lot of good and kept the the dual mandate focused clearly uh which is inflation under 2% although he never reached that target and we do see cracks in employment right now. So we've got a troublesome scenario potential scenario that the Fed is going to have to resolve. Now the interesting thing is that it has one primary tool and that is to maintain raise or lower bed funds rate which controls interest rates pretty much worldwide but definitely here for inflation we're still sitting around 3% they wanted to 2% and the way the Fed would accomplish that with their tools is to raise rates but with the labor market showing signs of weakness the way that you uh kind support the labor market and add jobs to the uh the job force here in North America is the opposite. You want to lower rates. >> So, how does the Fed deal with a dual mandate in which each of the dual mandates needs the opposite action to put a handle on it? In other words, to prop up employment, you want to lower rates to get inflation down to the 2% target when it's sitting at three. you want to raise rates. So, by virtue of seeing what they focus on, so they did do a rate cut, of course, today, but it's only anticipated, I believe, and I'm going to have to look closer at this, but there aren't going to be as many rate cuts next year as this year. This year we had three, we're anticipating two next year. And it's going to be the leadership at the Fed and how that affects the economy that I'm going to look at most closely for a potential to really have a significant impact on not only the economy, GDP, labor force, but that as it bleeds into what we focus on, which is gold and silver or precious metals pricing. >> Yeah. Yeah. Well said. And it's even been hard to uh to analyze. Although, as I mentioned, Gary, I mean, you've been pretty accurate here. Uh just quickly before I let you go, I mean as we approach the holidays because you brought up a good topic here. I mean this time of year is usually quieter for gold and silver. I mean based on the strength of this move that we just saw. I mean do you expect metals to kind of cool off the way that they normally do during the holiday season or is this year kind of shaping up to be different from your perspective? >> Well, you know, we're certainly not seeing that in silver. Uh volume has remained really active. If you look at volume right here, it's close to the peak that we got in October and it's significantly above average volume through the summertime last year. So, we're not seeing a um a distortion in terms of volume moving the markets unrealistically because of lack of liquidity. If anything, we're seeing a very active market with strong open interest with strong volume in silver. In regards to gold, we have seen gold's volume decline significantly uh from what we'll call the uh the end of the fall months, September and October. We had significant volume. We are seeing the decline there. So, if we're going to see things slow down, we're certainly not seeing it in silver. We certainly are seeing it in gold. And that's indicative of the fact first of all it stayed above 4200 but it hasn't made a real move to the upside. It's still within this range of around call it uh um 4290 on the high side and 4200 on the low side. And that tells me that we could see more consolidation in gold and possibly higher prices in silver as it you it uses this time to stretch that all-time record high. Um and maybe close the year out significantly higher. Uh silver is right now breaking, as I said, broke through 62. If it breaks through 63 or stays in this area, that's what I'm looking for. I'm looking for stability. uh because as long as it's moving up parabolically, I fear hard uh corrections on the downside. So, we'll have to see. We're not seeing that right now. >> Yeah. Well said, man. That's what I've been hearing. All right, Gary Wgner, of course. We appreciate your insight, my friend. Happy holidays, of course. And check out Gary at the goldfor.com for more insights. You've been ahead of it all year, my friend. Thanks for this. >> Thank you so much. I look forward to a lot of good interviews next year and want to wish all of our viewers a great holiday, happy, healthy, and prosperous 2026. That is my wish to you. >> Well said. Can't believe it's already 2026 coming up. It just blows my mind. All right, G. Thanks, mate. Appreciate it. We'll see you soon. See you in the new year. >> You got it. >> Okay. With the Fed's decision today now in the books, a 25 basis point rate cut, a fresh wave of liquidity through those reserve management purchases. We'll be watching closely how markets digest this in the days ahead. Now, gold holding above $4,200. Silver north of 60 gives us plenty to monitor as we move towards in the end of the year and into 2026. Now, we'll keep an eye on every development and bring you the latest here at Kicko News. If you haven't already, make sure you hit subscribe. I'm Jeremy Safford. Thanks for watching.