‘This Makes Me Nervous’: Trader Reveals Next Moves For Stocks, Bitcoin, Gold | Jason Shapiro
Summary
Market Outlook: Guest emphasizes a persistent, liquidity-fueled bull market and warns against top-calling, advocating not to fight the tape.
US Equities: Bias is to remain long due to structural upward drift and supportive flows; watch how stocks react to rate-cut expectations for signals.
Weak Dollar: Bullish on a short U.S. dollar stance as a core macro trade idea at this stage.
Japanese Yen & Canadian Dollar: Prefers long JPY and especially long CAD due to crowded short positioning and improving price action that could force short covering.
Precious Metals: Positive on gold and silver as stores of value amid continued monetary and fiscal liquidity, seeing no clear reason the uptrend should stop.
Bitcoin: Neutral-to-cautious; owns a small personal position but highlights uncertainty, potential regulatory risks, and dependence on broader liquidity.
Prediction Markets: Sees potential arbitrage opportunities versus traditional markets due to early-stage inefficiencies, while acknowledging bid-ask/spread risks.
Risk Management: Focus on positioning, market reactions to news, and avoiding persistent bearishness that fights prevailing trends.
Transcript
This is probably the most hated bull market that anybody has ever seen. And it continues to be the most hated bull market that anybody has ever seen. But don't fight the tape because that's what loses you money. And macro people from the time I joined in '05 were very bearish because they thought of it was a housing bubble. But they were shorting it from 05. So [music] by the time 08 rolled around, they couldn't be short anymore because they had lost so much money being short. People have been calling this thing a bubble for a long time here. And and like I say, if you've been short based on that idea, you're hurting. >> Market momentum doesn't look like it's stalling. The S&P 500 is now firmly above 6,800 points. Bitcoin is now above 93,000 on the 3rd of December, much higher than it was a month ago. Gold and silver continue to pump up to unprecedented levels. So, what's next for markets? Is there a top performing? We'll find out with our next guest, Jason Shapiro. founder of Crowded Market Report, veteran trader of over 30 years, and he's been featured in Jack Striker's book, Unknown Market Wizards. He's a regular on my show. Check out our last interview with Jason, link down below, so you can see the number of correct calls he's made all throughout the year. This episode is brought to you by Koshi, the largest prediction market in the United States. It is a fully regulated platform that lets you trade on realworld events. So, you can trade on political outcomes and economic and financial events as well. And we're going to be going over a lot of these events with Jason, including where the S&P 500 is headed by the end of the year, what the Fed's going to do by the end of the year, who may be the new Fed chair. Uh people are placing uh trades on that outcome, and what is oil going to do. All very topical trades that you can find on Kowi and that we're going to be examining with a real trader, Jason, today. Koshi recently also raised a billion dollars in series E funding at an 11 billion valuation. Go to my link down below or scan the QR code here. Use my promo code Lynn L I N. And then when you use my promo code, you'll get $10 on your first $100 deposit when you sign up to Koshi. Jason, welcome to the show. Good to see you again. Welcome back. >> Thanks, David. Good to see you, too. >> Well, with that said, let's talk about current sentiment. Let's talk about uh what positioning you're looking at right now and uh where the crowd is currently sitting because like I mentioned in the introduction, everything's going up yet again. >> It's bull market. So, you know, that tends to be what happens in a bull market is the markets go up, you know, and um I feel like you, me, everyone you talk to, everyone I talk to, everyone everyone talks to spends an inordinate amount of time talking about where the top is going to be, you know, and I think that that indicates the sentiment best, you We've been saying for a long time, this is probably the most hated bull market that anybody has ever seen. Um, and it continues to be the most hated bull market that anybody has ever seen. And as soon as it pulls back three, four, 5%, it's like, you know, the the perma bears come out. This is it. It's over. and and they come out with their their new reasons, whether it's the AI bubble or the Japanese carry trade or MSTR and Bitcoin, you know. Um, it's always something that is going to uh to crash the market. Um, so I I personally think that continues to be where sentiment is. And I think people spend way too much time trying to figure out where the top is. You know, uh, even if you're great, you you're probably not going to get the exact top, so why bother? You know, um, you're just selling and watching the market go in your face again. So, you know, the the the market is in a bull market majority of the time. David. Um, so it's like a a exercise of futility trying to just all the time be bearish and talk about why it's going to top and talk about this and it it's it's silly quite frankly and and you continue to have, you know, uh, passive flows come in every month from everybody's 401k or whatever it is. So there's a continual amount of money that that that goes into the market and theoretically is not going to stop. Um and we continue to have uh central banks and governments the world over pushing uh the liquidity trade um which is just creating more money that can find its way into the markets. So I don't know. I keep saying if if you're fighting and it will top obviously at some point the market will go down at some point I think. Um but you know to be betting on that is you're you're fighting the Fed which has always been a no no. Um you are fighting city hall meaning the governments who are are pushing liquidity and you are fighting the tape. So, you're going to get what you pay for if that's the way you're going to do this. [snorts] >> One of the things you do as a trader is to look at where the crowd is uh positioned. So, if everybody is overwhelmingly feeling bearish or over or the market or participants are feeling overwhelmingly bullish and no one's talking about a potential pullback or recession or a bare market, then you might consider taking the opposite side of the bet. Are we there yet? >> I don't believe that we are there yet. No. Mhm. Okay. This is >> there's a few things. >> Yeah. >> This is really more coming from I don't just try to look at, hey, what everybody else is. I also try to think about what I'm thinking or saying because that that's the most honest way to figure out what people are thinking cuz my emotions and my reactions I don't think are necessarily any any different than than anybody else's. So when I look at what I'm thinking and all that, it's this idea of like that that the thing that would make me nervous about it is it it almost feels to me like there's no way the market's going to go down because if it does go down then they're going to come in and they're going to support it again, right? They're going to print more money and you know and all that. So if they do that then the market goes right back up. So, why would the market ever go down if people know that if it does, they're just going to support it and push it back up again, right? Um, you know, so it kind of feels like there can't really be any any large down move. So, that thought process, if someone else said that, I would be very nervous. Um, and I'm saying that, so it makes me just as nervous cuz I don't think I'm any smarter than anybody else. So, that's the one thing that makes me nervous. Um, but other than I don't know that that is necessarily at this point a consensus belief. >> Well, the best traders are the ones that are aware of their own intelligence and don't think that they're smarter than everybody else. So, [laughter] you're on the right track there. >> Yeah. No, that's that's a fact. Um because you're not you not only have to be smarter than everybody else, you have to be if that's the way you're going to play it, you have to be smarter than everybody else combined because that's what's in the price of a of an asset is what everybody in the world thinks combined. So you're not going to be that smart unfortunately. >> When it comes to positioning, I know you look at uh the commitment of traders reports, you look at um uh options, and then what about prediction markets? They've been hitting mainstream news. So, this one's from Koshi and uh and if you if you take a look at uh you know they have a number of different categories here. I'm just going to the financials and they have how it works is they pull people on certain topics and they hear it's S&P close price end of 2025 and people can trade on this particular outcome instead of just trading on the S&P directly. >> Uh there's also economic events right but I want to focus on this in particular right now just for the sake of this particular question. So right now you've got 6600 to 6800 17% chance the majority 40% chance think 6800 to um 7,000 which is slightly higher from current levels and then you've got a 30% um secondary majority thinking that it's going to go above 7,000. So bullish to super bullish. That's how this particular platform's participants are feeling, which I think is a probably a good reflection of the overall market right now. What do you think? I mean, do you look at stuff like this and think to yourself, okay, well, I mean, it's an easy way to to to piece crowded sentiment together. If everybody, let's say if this isn't 40%, let's say if it's 90%. then you're probably thinking, gee, hm, I I need to think about some stuff here, right? >> If money is actually being put to work um on that, you know, a poll is one thing. A poll is a poll. Doesn't mean a lot to me. >> It is a poll, but they're trading. So, the payoff is slightly higher for no because there's a you know, there's a higher higher payoff for no because it's it's not a majority. So yeah, it's basically just >> 40% of the people are essentially saying >> markets are going to be flattened up. >> Yeah, they're basically right here or slightly up, right? >> Yeah. >> So, I don't know if I'm going to call that massive euphoria, but um I haven't looked a lot into this, but I think that it's definitely interesting. I don't know how big the spreads are, how wide the spreads are, or anything. I think that probably off the top of my head, the most interesting thing that can be done with this right now since it's new or newish and since there's probably a lot of money um that can't really play on this game yet, you know, the hedge fund money probably isn't um set up to to play this game yet. there's probably some arbitrage opportunities if if the spreads are tight enough here um between these type of markets and the actual markets, you know, like the percentage chance that the Fed is going to cut rates in December or something is a mathematical number you can figure out in the markets and and play in the markets mathematically. And then if you could take the other side in this particular place where the odd where the number or the odds was different, you could probably orbit it out. You know, it was kind of like the early days of uh of Bitcoin and all that where different exchanges had different prices. And I knew some people that were that were orbiting on two exchanges because it was new and the liquidity at the various places weren't there. So that I think might be a very interesting thing that can be done in these type of things. Um, >> I wanted to bring this to your attention because prediction markets like Kashi have been making mainstream news uh not just because of >> people trading on S&P 500 results by the end of the year, but particularly uh their election trades, which party will >> who will Trump nominate as Fed share. >> Um Trump out, you know, Trump out as president this year 1%. these um presidential uh elections or mayoral elections like Madani in New York for example uh the trades that people have placed on those outcomes have been spot on and so basically the closer you get to the actual event of the election let's say if the odds are overwhelmingly in one outcome's favor like in this case who will Trump nominate his fed chair Kevin Hasset uh I think this is by next January yeah January 2020 Um uh that's I think that's uh I think I meant before. Yeah. Uh the next the next I think that's supposed to be 2026 but anyway um we then then uh the markets have pretty much been spot on on on giving outcomes. And so as a trader, you look at this and you think, okay, well, if this is there's if there's a proven track record for not just this platform, for multiple platforms where traders and people placing uh trades go here and basically predict outcomes and their predictions are spot-on. Well, I can use this to my advantage. I could basically frontr run the outcome even though that's how markets are positioned already. I mean this is this is a gamechanging kind of tool because prior to prior to this we has we had to use other indirect indicators like positioning and options and other reports and whatnot to gauge how people are feeling about Trump versus Biden for example. Uh we had to rely on polls which we know are very inaccurate. But uh markets have called the presidential election. They've called mayor elections. Uh they've called every single um Fed rate cut or hike or decision and let's see if they're right about Kevin Hasset being fed here. >> No, I think use this. Yeah, >> I think it's super interesting. Um yeah, and I think Okay, so Kevin Hassid's going to be the Fed chair according to this thing. Okay. Well, what do we know about Kevin Hassid? And and what do we think he's going to do? Um, and then you have to say, and what is the market thinking is going to happen for that? He's probably going to be, you know, more on the dobish side. Um, so you would want to bet that interest rates were going to come down. Well, how are you going to bet that? You now have a number of ways to bet that. You can do that in the bond markets. >> That's the most direct way. In particular, on the short end of the bond markets would be the most direct way. Um, but now you want to figure out if we are going to equate it. There's an 82% chance that he's going to win according to this thing if I'm seeing it right. Right. Well, what is the market saying is the chance that there's going to be interest rate cuts? Well, December [clears throat] we know is like 90%, but he's not going to be in December. So, the question is what are the is the market pricing in that there will be a rate cut once he gets in? I would bet it's probably pretty close to that 82%. You know, [laughter] so I don't know where you're you get the the edge there, but there could be. I would think if you search through enough of these things and do enough scenarios, there might be a way to get the edge. I mean, it's the old, you know, wisdom of crowds thing, right? Um, which is what this really is. That's why they get it right so much is is it's the wisdom of crowds. The crowd knows, right? I'm just curious how uh this stacks up with so this is Fed decision by uh December uh Fed watch tool. Let me just go to CME Fed watch tool and get the percentage there. So uh this is this obviously is something that people use. But um so yeah 89% chance right so right right now we're at uh yeah right now we're at 350 375 80. That's interesting. Okay right now we're at 375 to 400. Yeah. So, we're looking at 89% chance of a 25 basis point cut, >> right? >> Which isn't isn't this guy anyway because he won't be in office yet. But, um, >> and now this is looking at 93. So, the market, the bond market here, the CME Fed watch tool um, plus uh, prediction markets both think that there's going to be an overwhelming chance that the Fed's going to cut once more by December. Yes. >> So you you can use tools like this to I don't know how much alpha you're going to get if the entire market is already positioned like this. But it is interesting to look at these kinds of indicators and and position yourself accordingly because if if the track record is pretty much perfect >> these guys are saying 93% these guys are saying 93% chance >> correct >> whereas the federal 89 >> 89 so there's a 4% difference. So again, I don't know what the bid ass spread is on any of these type of bets, but if it were super tight, then you could lock in a 4% uh arbitrage profit there, right? >> How how would that work? >> Well, if you could buy the 89% chance on the CME, and you could sell the 94% chance on this one, right? >> Yeah. >> Then you just bought 89 and sold 94. >> True. So, I would bet that the bid ask on once you got the the bid ass spread on both of those things, you would that would probably go away. Um, without knowing a single thing about it, I would bet if you executed that trade, um, the what you would the slippage from the bid ass spread and all that would be very very close to 4%. Okay, let's just take something else just for the sake of fun and then we'll move on to something else here. I'm just clicking on something. Gas prices in the US this month. So again, the overwhelming majority of people on this um on this particular trade are predicting 2 above two $2.90. Is this per gallon? >> This must be per gallon. >> 290 per gallon. 295 above three above 2.85. Yeah. I mean, you know, people are putting their own money to work on this. So we're not getting ridiculous answers. So So u you know we get a pretty conservative um outcome here. >> This is just an easy way to see how markets are positioned. So I mean this or options or the commitment of traders reports. You look at something like this and what what do you do with that? >> Like I say the first thing to do is look for if there's a big divergence between this and and the markets, which I would think that there wouldn't be, but there could be. um you know and then try and find an orb an orb in there I think would be the the first thing I would do is look for an orb in there if you could that'd be the best that'd be the best thing to do I think um but like we were saying you could then you could then take it to the second derivative okay the markets are saying that this guy is going to be the Fed chief okay well we know that this guy as the Fed chief is going to be doubbish and if that's the case and we're going to get this doubbish Fed chief in then that is arguably a whatever for bonds, right? And you could take it to the next derivative. Uh if he's going to be dovish, that's probably going to be a good thing for stocks, right? So, I'd be willing to play the stock market to the long side if I were believing that doubbishness was good for the stock market. Of course, what you really want to do is say, "Okay, I think that doubness is good for the stock market, but am I saying anything that everybody else isn't already positioned for?" is the question, right? That's always the real question, right? Um and you just let the the market will will tell you that anyway. Um but you so then the interesting thing becomes if if for me the way that I trade, the way that I handle the markets, if this guy becomes the Fed chief, everybody was expecting him to become the Fed chief. Everybody believes that he is going to be doubbish. Okay. So now the day comes and that is announced that he is going to be the Fed chief. Um well a where is the market when that comes out? Did it run up in front of that announcement because everybody knew that announcement? Um and b how does the market react to that news? Right. That should be that should be bullish news. >> Sure. >> From what we just said. So how did the market react? You know, it's bullish news, but what's the market done? What's it discounted in beforehand? Right? The market's a discounting mechanism. So, what has it discounted in before [clears throat] that, right? Uh I is it bullish news if the market's at 7,000 already? Is it bullish news if the S&P is at 7,500? Is it bullish news if the S&P is at 8,000? I mean, at some point, um that's already discounted in, right? And we don't know the number, but for me, I look at a the positioning and b as a way of what's discounted in and b how the market actually reacts to the news. Those to me are the important things. >> Mhm. How are you positioned right now as a trader? I mean, people who trade directly in the stock markets are kind of indirectly doing this. They're making a mental note as to what the S&P is going to do by a certain by a certain time frame. I I know maybe that's not you don't pick tops and bottoms, but let let's say you have to, you know, here's the S&P 500 chart, right? We're at 6851 and then you make a mental note to yourself basically what this particular um uh prediction is is is doing. Where is the S&P going to close by 2025? Where would you sit if you had to place a place a place a trade here? 66 to 68 68 to 7,000 above 7,000. Where would you sit? >> Yeah. I mean, this is the good thing I I think about trading the market rather than trading these things, right? >> Yeah. >> Because I don't have any [clears throat] skill set whatsoever in predicting where the market's going to be at a certain time, right? Um, I bet I I'm a directional trader. I will be either long or short something, but I don't know. I don't have to worry if I'm long. I just I I just need to go up obviously, right? I don't know how much it's going to go up. I would prefer if it went up a lot if I'm long, but I don't know how much it's going to go up. So, this is sort of a disadvantage to these people is they could get the direction right, but the amount wrong and lose money. You know, if I get long on the S&P right here and it goes up two points between now and the end of the year, >> well, then then at least I made two points, right? Where these people that are betting it's going to be up 100 or 200 or whatever, they they lose. The market went up two points from where they bought it and they lost all their money >> because it's a bet, right? It's binary. either you're right or you're wrong. You get paid or you don't. Right. >> Right. >> Um so this is more like an option market than anything else. Which is why quite frankly I don't trade options because I'm not uh that's not where I find my skill set to be. Uh for me options is more about being able to predict uh volatility than anything else. I don't have a skill set in predicting the volatility of an asset. Uh so with this it's the same thing. You know, my process tries to find where there's good riskreward directionally, but has no claim um to be able to know how to know how much that is going to be even when right. You know, the hope is that it's more than I think. The reality is it's probably less than I think, but if I can get it right, then over time I'll be fine. So, you know, that that's what I would say about that. It's a different bet. You know, this is an options bet. It looks like more than a more than a directional sort of futures bet to me. Well, let's move on to the uh markets themselves then. So, let's get your take on stocks uh particularly tech stocks and Bitcoin right now. So, people were talking about mainstream news and actually social media were basically lit up with fears of an AI bubble popping all throughout November. Remember when Nvidia was going down? It still hasn't recovered from its all-time top. And uh people were talking about this bust bursting and um despite all this chatter the uh NASDAQ composite is still edging higher still not at its late October high uh but rebounded from its uh mid November lows. Now when you hear chatter that there's a bubble that even you know even executives of tech companies themselves have used the word bubble to describe the current situation and yet the market continues to ignore that. What does that signal to you? >> I think it's silly that everybody talks bubble bubble every day. Bubble bubble bubble bubble you know. Um let's say that you are convinced that it is a bubble. Okay, good for you. And let's say you have all the evidence in the world that can prove beyond the shadow of a doubt that it's a bubble, which you don't have, but let's say you did. Okay, good for you. Um, and you had that evidence this whole time. Okay. Well, then you would have been short this whole time and you would have been losing money, first of all. If it's a bubble, what does that imply? That it's going to drop 80%. Isn't that what a bubble does? Right? A bubble drops 80%. Isn't that what we're saying? So if the market is going, if you are correct and it's a bubble and the market is going to drop 80%. Then I don't know why you're in such a rush to get short, you know, because the market is touching very close here anyway to all-time highs. And I I've been saying this all along. I'm happy to make the argument that it's a bubble and I'm happy to make the argument that it's not a bubble. But if it's a bubble and we're going to drop 80%, then I don't know why you have to sell so close to all-time highs. Let the market start to act poorly first, right? Even if you got to sell it down 10% off alltime highs, well, you still got 80% to go. So, what's the difference? Don't fight the tape is my point, right? No matter what your belief is. I always say this, no matter how you trade, it doesn't matter. Don't fight the tape. That's all I'm saying. Be bullish. Be bearish. I I don't care. Have your reasons. I don't care. I'm sure they're great reasons to be either one. But don't fight the tape because that's what loses you money. And like I say, if it's a bubble, then you're correct. Then you got plenty of room to run. You know, people have been calling this thing a bubble for a long time here. And and like I say, if you've been short based on that idea, you're hurting. You know, you're going to end up getting to the point where you're broke and then the bubble does hit. And I and I saw that in in 08. You know, I I worked at a pretty large hedge fund 05, 06, 07, 08. and and the macro people from the time I joined in '05 were very bearish because they thought of it was a housing bubble and they were very bearish and as it turned out they were totally correct it was a housing bubble and the market did crash but they were shorting it from '05 so by the time 08 rolled around they couldn't be short anymore because they had lost so much money being short so they weren't able to take advantage of it in08 even the famous you know big short movie guy. He caught that. But he too was was lucky that his investors didn't shut him down because he had been shorting it for 3 years and losing money for 3 years you know and that's a very hard thing to do when you have investors who are going to be you know breathing down your neck first of all and second of all when it's actually your money it's even harder because now you're losing money for 3 years. You're telling me that if you would have been shorting the market from ' 05 to08 because you thought it was a housing bubble and you were losing money that whole time that you would have stuck with it? I I don't I don't think you would have, you know. So, the point being you have to wait, you know, wait until the market agrees with you and then by all means short it because it's a bubble. You know I if we look if in 10 years this market is you know 60% lower than it is now could we look back to now and say well gee the signs are there yes we could certainly there's certainly signs of that you know some of the valuation stuff and the whole thing with the AI and all that um we could certainly look back and and point to signs sure but the one sign you can't point to is that the market doesn't go down so why not wait until that The other thing I would say is the other thing I would say is each bubble, I've been through a few of them, is different. And if you really look at what's gone on here over the last few months, you've had a lot of these stocks drop 40, 50, 60, 70%. you know, um I understand Nvidia hasn't, but a lot of the more bubbly, for lack of a better word, type of names um have dropped a lot, you know, and and kind of did do a bubble thing. Uh I mean, Oaklo was a great stock, you know, probably dropped, I don't know, 50 60% in the last six, seven weeks or something like that. I did say on Twitter like the other day, what is a crash? Is it 40%, is it 60%, is it 80%, I don't know what the definition of a crash is, but a lot of these stocks have crashed. A lot of these bubbly type stocks have in fact crashed. Not all of them. Nvidia hasn't. Um, but the other ones certainly have. You know, a few of them, um, more than a few of them have have certainly crashed. these sort of ones that were most in favor the first half of the year like this Goldman Sachs you know what do they call it uh lowquality name index type of thing which all these stocks that weren't making any money but were benefiting from the hype of AI and they were up 200 300% 400 those things have come down a lot you know 50 60% is a lot you know uh so in a way we we've sort of had a correction in there a big correction a big bare market and a lot of those names that I don't hear a lot of people talking about. They all want to focus on Nvidia, Nvidia, Nvidia, but a lot of these other names have in fact, for lack of a better word, crashed and the bubble has been popped. So, that's another way to look at it, I think. >> Let's take a look at uh well, you said the stocks are currently in a bull market. You said that in the very beginning of the interview. Let's talk let's take a look at Bitcoin then. Is Bitcoin currently still in the bull market? I mean it was and then it corrected somewhat and now it's kind of kind of consolidating around it it's it's it November bottom. What what have you people people telling you about Bitcoin? >> Bitcoin's a tough one you know because it's become like religion you know there there are the people who believe in Bitcoin as the future of the global payments system. Um, and I can't argue with them because quite frankly, I don't know enough about it. I don't sit here, first of all, I don't really trade Bitcoin. I own a little bit of Bitcoin. Um, not in the accounts that I manage for others, but in like my personal accounts, I own a little bit of Bitcoin. Um, but I don't know. I'm no expert on it. Um, but we have these people who who believe very strongly in the religion of Bitcoin and and they're probably never going to sell. Uh, some of those people have [snorts] been successful in the past and some of those people that I know um have had tremendous failures throughout their entire careers and have been nothing but fades throughout their entire careers. Uh, so I really don't have a great read on what Bitcoin is going to do or whether in a bull. It certainly isn't in a bull market anymore, but it could be again soon. What I did notice, I was looking last last week, last night or two days ago because when Bitcoin was having all its trouble on Monday, um since the first Bitcoin ETF started trading, the exact numbers aren't in front of me, but since that day, let's pick that day rather than pick random days because you tell people, oh, Bitcoin is down on the year and has underperformed stocks and this and people say, oh, but go back five years and Bitcoin is up, you know, 10,000% and outperforms everything. So, so rather than pick some random day, what about the day I think the day that that you could buy the ETF because I think that was a gamechanging day for Bitcoin because up until that point, you had to sort of take some risks that most people don't want to take, right? You had to open up this online wallet and buy it on some exchange that was owned by people that had proven to be doing some pretty dodgy things like, you know, Sam Bankman Freed or whatever. you know, you had to put your trust in these things. You could get hacked, right? And whatever Bitcoin you had could get stolen and all that. So, you had to take excess risk to buy Bitcoin back in those days. And with excess risk comes the possibility of excess returns. In fact, over time, financial theory will tell you if you want to earn excess returns, you have to take excess risk. It's pretty simple. Once the Bitcoin ETF started, you no longer really had to take excess risk in in [clears throat] Bitcoin. And since that day, Bitcoin has underperformed pretty much everything. The stock market, gold, silver, just about everything. It's up. >> Yeah, that was January 2024 was uh the first spot Bitcoin ETF. So, >> so it's up since then, right? But it's up a lot less than other assets. It's up less than stock. It's up less than gold. So sword hasn't been that great an investment since that day since they took the excess risk out of it. It really hasn't been that great an investment. Um will that change? Will you know? >> Well, hang on. Sorry. It since 2024 it's beaten stock. So I think you're talking about since 2025 it's underperformed everything else. >> Well I was looking from the first day that that first IBIT that I bit came out. >> I bit. Okay. Let's specifically look at because the first the first spot Bitcoin ETF launch was >> was uh was Okay. Let's let's actually I don't know when was the IBIT Bitcoin ETF launched? Let's look it up together. January >> January 11th, 2024. >> Yeah. >> So, what has Bitcoin done since January 11th, 2024? >> It's about 120% since January 2024. Yeah. NASDAQ's up 57 on my screen. Well, then I'm glad you pointed this out to me because maybe I got to go back and do some more homework because I had it wrong. But when I was looking at it on Monday, I had it. I I did not have that. I had >> Well, you're right about 2025, it's underperformed. But if you go back since 2024, it's it's it's it's beaten stocks by, you know, quite a lot. So, yeah, Jan, if you start from January 2024, it's up uh 114% and then uh NASDAQ's up 55%. Let's just take a look at gold. see how gold's done during the same period. Um, gold is up 102%. So, very close >> to Bitcoin. >> Look, if that's if that's correct, then I stand corrected. So, you can just discount everything I just said about that. >> Well, that's all right. Your point still stands. It's, you know, it's it's it's lagged behind some stocks uh especially this year if you want to talk about this year in particular. And that's what's been puzzling to people because even though if you go all the way back to 2024, which is a, you know, long time for Bitcoin's only been around for 14 years, right? So, if you take a two-year history, that's big chunk of its history. It's outperformed everything else that we talked about. But this here, I think what people are wondering is why is it if you look at the blue blue line here, that's Bitcoin. You look at gold, that's green, and then you look at this, the the NASDAQ composite, that's the bar chart here. And even though Bitcoin still kind of follows the NASDAQ on a on a correlation basis, you the beta on the downside is a lot higher. So the NASDAQ has corrected somewhat between September, late September and October. Bitcoin has followed that but just went down a lot more and hasn't really gone back up. And so people are wondering, okay, well, was the capital going to somewhere else? Is it is it done? I mean, people just sold off in Bitcoin and rotated into something else and party's over for now. That's that's what the Bitcoin community is kind of wondering right now. >> Yeah. You know, um and I I wish I had the answer for them. Um but like I say, I'm no Bitcoin expert, so I I couldn't tell you. Um >> what do you think about gold? What do you think about this this this this green line that's just it doesn't stop? It's just this straight line up from 2024. If you want to start from 2024, I mean, look at what it's done. It's just a straight line basically up. Going back to what we were talking about before, if we're living in a world where central bank policy and fiscal policy is to just continually in one form or another print money, then clearly and this is what the Bitcoiners love, right? Because It's about getting away from fiat currency. Um, gold's going to go up, you know, and like I say, there doesn't seem to be an end to the desire for these people to continue to print money. So, I don't know why, >> and again, this is the one thing that would make me nervous is saying this, but I I don't know why gold would stop or or silver would stop or or for that matter, you can make the same argument on Bitcoin. I mean, gold has really no more utility than than Bitcoin has. It's a store of value if we want it to be a store of value, right? I guess you could use gold to do other things. I mean, jewelry and whatever. It's a soft metal, but in general, for the most part, it it's nothing but a store of value and has been that for thousands of years. Um, and now Bitcoin is supposed to be the same thing. It might not at this point have very many uses. And therefore, people will make the argument that it doesn't have intrinsic value, but does gold really have intrinsic value? You know, not very much. And and that's worked for thousands of years. So, why couldn't it be the same for Bitcoin? I see no reason why it couldn't. Um, you know, there's a few questionable things going on there with MSTR and Michael Sailor and some things that look sort of at least on the surface Ponziish um that could affect it, but it's just like anything else. It's not going to affect it if it goes up. You know, it's only going to affect, you know, MSTR is only in trouble if the obvious to state the obvious. If Bitcoin goes down, you know, then you got a problem. So, as long as this Bitcoin is holding in and going up, then then it's all fine. So, uh I like I say, I have a few% of my savings in in Bitcoin cuz I think the potential for it is is certainly there, but could I also see it become useless? Yes, worthless, I should say. I I could see that possibility. If you can't see that possibility, then I think you're you're lying to yourself because what I've learned over 30 plus years in the markets is anything is possible in financial markets and financial instruments. So, I'm not saying Bitcoin is going to be worthless, but I'm saying if you think that there's zero chance of that happening, then I think you're fooling yourself or you're you're selling something to somebody because there's never zero chance of something happening. We don't know that governments could come out against it. who who knows what could happen, right? Um you would think that the governments wouldn't come out against it because the Trump organization has decided that they have want to invest a lot of money in this stuff. So I wouldn't think that they would come out against it, but yeah. >> Okay, let's end on um one or two trades that you are bullish on besides stocks. I think the short short dollar is a is a good idea. >> Okay. >> Um long things like the yen, long things like Canada I think are becoming good ideas here. Um >> you're going to long Canada for sorry yen and Canada. Can you just explain why yen and Canada? >> It [clears throat] all just comes off of my positioning stuff. That's where I find people are the most short and the most bearish. And now they and now they are starting to react better. In particular, Canada. I think Canada better than than yen. Um Canada is the the currency that people are most short from what I can tell and it has started to act well in spite of that. So that means that there's a lot of shorts out there that if it continues to act well there are going to have to cover their shorts. Um that's that's the game that I play. So um that's why I like that one. Um, as for the rest of them, you know, uh, you know, I'm looking at things like sugar, cotton, things that most people are not going to be interested in. Um, I don't see much edge in the financial stuff right now. Um, which doesn't mean that I would be short, just means it's not the time for me, based on what I do, to be aggressively long. Um I still think that if you are going to be playing in the stock market world um you almost always not always but almost always want to error to the long side because there's upward drift you know so why not take advantage of the upward drift right uh this idea like I said in the beginning that everybody's trying to find the top and pick the top and call the top and top top top. It's silly. It's a it's an exercise in silliness and and it has made them look foolish for the last few years. Uh I see the people on your show and on many other shows just come on week after week after week and and say the same thing and they all have their different reasons the technical part of it or the fundamental part of it or you know whatever it is. Few people see this and few people see that and they've just made themselves look foolish and they continue to make themselves look foolish. Will the stock market go down one day? Probably. Um, but to just continually go on there every week and then try and pick the top and try and pick the top based on all these things to me is is silly. You air to the long side. And when the start when the market stops acting well, um, then you can think about pulling back on that. But, and it did stop acting well uh, a few weeks ago. It didn't react well to Palunteer earnings. It didn't react well to Nvidia earnings, right? Um, but it continues to and it didn't act well. Well, those were didn't act well, but then we had a period where the chances of a rate cut in December went down a lot and the stock market went down with it. That was to be expected. And as soon as the chances of rate cuts went back up to where they are now, the stock market went right back up. So, it just shows you that's really what it's all about now. So if the market stops acting well in relation to the whole idea of them cutting rates and the whole idea of more liquidity, then I would get nervous and then we can talk about, you know, trying to go the other way. But until then, I think it's I think it's just silly. >> Excellent. Let's close it off here, Jason. Good thoughts today. Thank you for sharing your analysis. Where can we find you? >> Crowdarketreport.com. >> All right. Put a link down below. So follow crowdreport.com >> on YouTube as well. A lot of free YouTube videos come out on there. So, you could search on YouTube for [sighs and gasps] Crowd of Market Report on YouTube. A lot of videos that you can watch and tell me what a loser [snorts] I am and all. [laughter] >> People like, >> we're not going to do that. >> I love I love it. I love it. >> Okay. Well, you can you can comment on his videos by going to the links down below and follow his work. So, thank you for thank you for appearing on the program. You can also comment on this particular video and say whatever you like. But uh always good to have you Jason. Always good to have you. See you next time. >> Good to be here David. Thanks. >> Thanks for watching. Don't forget to like and subscribe and follow Jason Shapiro down in the links below. And don't forget to use my promo code lin lin when you sign up to Koshi uh the US's largest regulated prediction market. You'll get $10 on your first $100 deposit using my promo code. So link down below or scan the QR code here.
‘This Makes Me Nervous’: Trader Reveals Next Moves For Stocks, Bitcoin, Gold | Jason Shapiro
Summary
Transcript
This is probably the most hated bull market that anybody has ever seen. And it continues to be the most hated bull market that anybody has ever seen. But don't fight the tape because that's what loses you money. And macro people from the time I joined in '05 were very bearish because they thought of it was a housing bubble. But they were shorting it from 05. So [music] by the time 08 rolled around, they couldn't be short anymore because they had lost so much money being short. People have been calling this thing a bubble for a long time here. And and like I say, if you've been short based on that idea, you're hurting. >> Market momentum doesn't look like it's stalling. The S&P 500 is now firmly above 6,800 points. Bitcoin is now above 93,000 on the 3rd of December, much higher than it was a month ago. Gold and silver continue to pump up to unprecedented levels. So, what's next for markets? Is there a top performing? We'll find out with our next guest, Jason Shapiro. founder of Crowded Market Report, veteran trader of over 30 years, and he's been featured in Jack Striker's book, Unknown Market Wizards. He's a regular on my show. Check out our last interview with Jason, link down below, so you can see the number of correct calls he's made all throughout the year. This episode is brought to you by Koshi, the largest prediction market in the United States. It is a fully regulated platform that lets you trade on realworld events. So, you can trade on political outcomes and economic and financial events as well. And we're going to be going over a lot of these events with Jason, including where the S&P 500 is headed by the end of the year, what the Fed's going to do by the end of the year, who may be the new Fed chair. Uh people are placing uh trades on that outcome, and what is oil going to do. All very topical trades that you can find on Kowi and that we're going to be examining with a real trader, Jason, today. Koshi recently also raised a billion dollars in series E funding at an 11 billion valuation. Go to my link down below or scan the QR code here. Use my promo code Lynn L I N. And then when you use my promo code, you'll get $10 on your first $100 deposit when you sign up to Koshi. Jason, welcome to the show. Good to see you again. Welcome back. >> Thanks, David. Good to see you, too. >> Well, with that said, let's talk about current sentiment. Let's talk about uh what positioning you're looking at right now and uh where the crowd is currently sitting because like I mentioned in the introduction, everything's going up yet again. >> It's bull market. So, you know, that tends to be what happens in a bull market is the markets go up, you know, and um I feel like you, me, everyone you talk to, everyone I talk to, everyone everyone talks to spends an inordinate amount of time talking about where the top is going to be, you know, and I think that that indicates the sentiment best, you We've been saying for a long time, this is probably the most hated bull market that anybody has ever seen. Um, and it continues to be the most hated bull market that anybody has ever seen. And as soon as it pulls back three, four, 5%, it's like, you know, the the perma bears come out. This is it. It's over. and and they come out with their their new reasons, whether it's the AI bubble or the Japanese carry trade or MSTR and Bitcoin, you know. Um, it's always something that is going to uh to crash the market. Um, so I I personally think that continues to be where sentiment is. And I think people spend way too much time trying to figure out where the top is. You know, uh, even if you're great, you you're probably not going to get the exact top, so why bother? You know, um, you're just selling and watching the market go in your face again. So, you know, the the the market is in a bull market majority of the time. David. Um, so it's like a a exercise of futility trying to just all the time be bearish and talk about why it's going to top and talk about this and it it's it's silly quite frankly and and you continue to have, you know, uh, passive flows come in every month from everybody's 401k or whatever it is. So there's a continual amount of money that that that goes into the market and theoretically is not going to stop. Um and we continue to have uh central banks and governments the world over pushing uh the liquidity trade um which is just creating more money that can find its way into the markets. So I don't know. I keep saying if if you're fighting and it will top obviously at some point the market will go down at some point I think. Um but you know to be betting on that is you're you're fighting the Fed which has always been a no no. Um you are fighting city hall meaning the governments who are are pushing liquidity and you are fighting the tape. So, you're going to get what you pay for if that's the way you're going to do this. [snorts] >> One of the things you do as a trader is to look at where the crowd is uh positioned. So, if everybody is overwhelmingly feeling bearish or over or the market or participants are feeling overwhelmingly bullish and no one's talking about a potential pullback or recession or a bare market, then you might consider taking the opposite side of the bet. Are we there yet? >> I don't believe that we are there yet. No. Mhm. Okay. This is >> there's a few things. >> Yeah. >> This is really more coming from I don't just try to look at, hey, what everybody else is. I also try to think about what I'm thinking or saying because that that's the most honest way to figure out what people are thinking cuz my emotions and my reactions I don't think are necessarily any any different than than anybody else's. So when I look at what I'm thinking and all that, it's this idea of like that that the thing that would make me nervous about it is it it almost feels to me like there's no way the market's going to go down because if it does go down then they're going to come in and they're going to support it again, right? They're going to print more money and you know and all that. So if they do that then the market goes right back up. So, why would the market ever go down if people know that if it does, they're just going to support it and push it back up again, right? Um, you know, so it kind of feels like there can't really be any any large down move. So, that thought process, if someone else said that, I would be very nervous. Um, and I'm saying that, so it makes me just as nervous cuz I don't think I'm any smarter than anybody else. So, that's the one thing that makes me nervous. Um, but other than I don't know that that is necessarily at this point a consensus belief. >> Well, the best traders are the ones that are aware of their own intelligence and don't think that they're smarter than everybody else. So, [laughter] you're on the right track there. >> Yeah. No, that's that's a fact. Um because you're not you not only have to be smarter than everybody else, you have to be if that's the way you're going to play it, you have to be smarter than everybody else combined because that's what's in the price of a of an asset is what everybody in the world thinks combined. So you're not going to be that smart unfortunately. >> When it comes to positioning, I know you look at uh the commitment of traders reports, you look at um uh options, and then what about prediction markets? They've been hitting mainstream news. So, this one's from Koshi and uh and if you if you take a look at uh you know they have a number of different categories here. I'm just going to the financials and they have how it works is they pull people on certain topics and they hear it's S&P close price end of 2025 and people can trade on this particular outcome instead of just trading on the S&P directly. >> Uh there's also economic events right but I want to focus on this in particular right now just for the sake of this particular question. So right now you've got 6600 to 6800 17% chance the majority 40% chance think 6800 to um 7,000 which is slightly higher from current levels and then you've got a 30% um secondary majority thinking that it's going to go above 7,000. So bullish to super bullish. That's how this particular platform's participants are feeling, which I think is a probably a good reflection of the overall market right now. What do you think? I mean, do you look at stuff like this and think to yourself, okay, well, I mean, it's an easy way to to to piece crowded sentiment together. If everybody, let's say if this isn't 40%, let's say if it's 90%. then you're probably thinking, gee, hm, I I need to think about some stuff here, right? >> If money is actually being put to work um on that, you know, a poll is one thing. A poll is a poll. Doesn't mean a lot to me. >> It is a poll, but they're trading. So, the payoff is slightly higher for no because there's a you know, there's a higher higher payoff for no because it's it's not a majority. So yeah, it's basically just >> 40% of the people are essentially saying >> markets are going to be flattened up. >> Yeah, they're basically right here or slightly up, right? >> Yeah. >> So, I don't know if I'm going to call that massive euphoria, but um I haven't looked a lot into this, but I think that it's definitely interesting. I don't know how big the spreads are, how wide the spreads are, or anything. I think that probably off the top of my head, the most interesting thing that can be done with this right now since it's new or newish and since there's probably a lot of money um that can't really play on this game yet, you know, the hedge fund money probably isn't um set up to to play this game yet. there's probably some arbitrage opportunities if if the spreads are tight enough here um between these type of markets and the actual markets, you know, like the percentage chance that the Fed is going to cut rates in December or something is a mathematical number you can figure out in the markets and and play in the markets mathematically. And then if you could take the other side in this particular place where the odd where the number or the odds was different, you could probably orbit it out. You know, it was kind of like the early days of uh of Bitcoin and all that where different exchanges had different prices. And I knew some people that were that were orbiting on two exchanges because it was new and the liquidity at the various places weren't there. So that I think might be a very interesting thing that can be done in these type of things. Um, >> I wanted to bring this to your attention because prediction markets like Kashi have been making mainstream news uh not just because of >> people trading on S&P 500 results by the end of the year, but particularly uh their election trades, which party will >> who will Trump nominate as Fed share. >> Um Trump out, you know, Trump out as president this year 1%. these um presidential uh elections or mayoral elections like Madani in New York for example uh the trades that people have placed on those outcomes have been spot on and so basically the closer you get to the actual event of the election let's say if the odds are overwhelmingly in one outcome's favor like in this case who will Trump nominate his fed chair Kevin Hasset uh I think this is by next January yeah January 2020 Um uh that's I think that's uh I think I meant before. Yeah. Uh the next the next I think that's supposed to be 2026 but anyway um we then then uh the markets have pretty much been spot on on on giving outcomes. And so as a trader, you look at this and you think, okay, well, if this is there's if there's a proven track record for not just this platform, for multiple platforms where traders and people placing uh trades go here and basically predict outcomes and their predictions are spot-on. Well, I can use this to my advantage. I could basically frontr run the outcome even though that's how markets are positioned already. I mean this is this is a gamechanging kind of tool because prior to prior to this we has we had to use other indirect indicators like positioning and options and other reports and whatnot to gauge how people are feeling about Trump versus Biden for example. Uh we had to rely on polls which we know are very inaccurate. But uh markets have called the presidential election. They've called mayor elections. Uh they've called every single um Fed rate cut or hike or decision and let's see if they're right about Kevin Hasset being fed here. >> No, I think use this. Yeah, >> I think it's super interesting. Um yeah, and I think Okay, so Kevin Hassid's going to be the Fed chair according to this thing. Okay. Well, what do we know about Kevin Hassid? And and what do we think he's going to do? Um, and then you have to say, and what is the market thinking is going to happen for that? He's probably going to be, you know, more on the dobish side. Um, so you would want to bet that interest rates were going to come down. Well, how are you going to bet that? You now have a number of ways to bet that. You can do that in the bond markets. >> That's the most direct way. In particular, on the short end of the bond markets would be the most direct way. Um, but now you want to figure out if we are going to equate it. There's an 82% chance that he's going to win according to this thing if I'm seeing it right. Right. Well, what is the market saying is the chance that there's going to be interest rate cuts? Well, December [clears throat] we know is like 90%, but he's not going to be in December. So, the question is what are the is the market pricing in that there will be a rate cut once he gets in? I would bet it's probably pretty close to that 82%. You know, [laughter] so I don't know where you're you get the the edge there, but there could be. I would think if you search through enough of these things and do enough scenarios, there might be a way to get the edge. I mean, it's the old, you know, wisdom of crowds thing, right? Um, which is what this really is. That's why they get it right so much is is it's the wisdom of crowds. The crowd knows, right? I'm just curious how uh this stacks up with so this is Fed decision by uh December uh Fed watch tool. Let me just go to CME Fed watch tool and get the percentage there. So uh this is this obviously is something that people use. But um so yeah 89% chance right so right right now we're at uh yeah right now we're at 350 375 80. That's interesting. Okay right now we're at 375 to 400. Yeah. So, we're looking at 89% chance of a 25 basis point cut, >> right? >> Which isn't isn't this guy anyway because he won't be in office yet. But, um, >> and now this is looking at 93. So, the market, the bond market here, the CME Fed watch tool um, plus uh, prediction markets both think that there's going to be an overwhelming chance that the Fed's going to cut once more by December. Yes. >> So you you can use tools like this to I don't know how much alpha you're going to get if the entire market is already positioned like this. But it is interesting to look at these kinds of indicators and and position yourself accordingly because if if the track record is pretty much perfect >> these guys are saying 93% these guys are saying 93% chance >> correct >> whereas the federal 89 >> 89 so there's a 4% difference. So again, I don't know what the bid ass spread is on any of these type of bets, but if it were super tight, then you could lock in a 4% uh arbitrage profit there, right? >> How how would that work? >> Well, if you could buy the 89% chance on the CME, and you could sell the 94% chance on this one, right? >> Yeah. >> Then you just bought 89 and sold 94. >> True. So, I would bet that the bid ask on once you got the the bid ass spread on both of those things, you would that would probably go away. Um, without knowing a single thing about it, I would bet if you executed that trade, um, the what you would the slippage from the bid ass spread and all that would be very very close to 4%. Okay, let's just take something else just for the sake of fun and then we'll move on to something else here. I'm just clicking on something. Gas prices in the US this month. So again, the overwhelming majority of people on this um on this particular trade are predicting 2 above two $2.90. Is this per gallon? >> This must be per gallon. >> 290 per gallon. 295 above three above 2.85. Yeah. I mean, you know, people are putting their own money to work on this. So we're not getting ridiculous answers. So So u you know we get a pretty conservative um outcome here. >> This is just an easy way to see how markets are positioned. So I mean this or options or the commitment of traders reports. You look at something like this and what what do you do with that? >> Like I say the first thing to do is look for if there's a big divergence between this and and the markets, which I would think that there wouldn't be, but there could be. um you know and then try and find an orb an orb in there I think would be the the first thing I would do is look for an orb in there if you could that'd be the best that'd be the best thing to do I think um but like we were saying you could then you could then take it to the second derivative okay the markets are saying that this guy is going to be the Fed chief okay well we know that this guy as the Fed chief is going to be doubbish and if that's the case and we're going to get this doubbish Fed chief in then that is arguably a whatever for bonds, right? And you could take it to the next derivative. Uh if he's going to be dovish, that's probably going to be a good thing for stocks, right? So, I'd be willing to play the stock market to the long side if I were believing that doubbishness was good for the stock market. Of course, what you really want to do is say, "Okay, I think that doubness is good for the stock market, but am I saying anything that everybody else isn't already positioned for?" is the question, right? That's always the real question, right? Um and you just let the the market will will tell you that anyway. Um but you so then the interesting thing becomes if if for me the way that I trade, the way that I handle the markets, if this guy becomes the Fed chief, everybody was expecting him to become the Fed chief. Everybody believes that he is going to be doubbish. Okay. So now the day comes and that is announced that he is going to be the Fed chief. Um well a where is the market when that comes out? Did it run up in front of that announcement because everybody knew that announcement? Um and b how does the market react to that news? Right. That should be that should be bullish news. >> Sure. >> From what we just said. So how did the market react? You know, it's bullish news, but what's the market done? What's it discounted in beforehand? Right? The market's a discounting mechanism. So, what has it discounted in before [clears throat] that, right? Uh I is it bullish news if the market's at 7,000 already? Is it bullish news if the S&P is at 7,500? Is it bullish news if the S&P is at 8,000? I mean, at some point, um that's already discounted in, right? And we don't know the number, but for me, I look at a the positioning and b as a way of what's discounted in and b how the market actually reacts to the news. Those to me are the important things. >> Mhm. How are you positioned right now as a trader? I mean, people who trade directly in the stock markets are kind of indirectly doing this. They're making a mental note as to what the S&P is going to do by a certain by a certain time frame. I I know maybe that's not you don't pick tops and bottoms, but let let's say you have to, you know, here's the S&P 500 chart, right? We're at 6851 and then you make a mental note to yourself basically what this particular um uh prediction is is is doing. Where is the S&P going to close by 2025? Where would you sit if you had to place a place a place a trade here? 66 to 68 68 to 7,000 above 7,000. Where would you sit? >> Yeah. I mean, this is the good thing I I think about trading the market rather than trading these things, right? >> Yeah. >> Because I don't have any [clears throat] skill set whatsoever in predicting where the market's going to be at a certain time, right? Um, I bet I I'm a directional trader. I will be either long or short something, but I don't know. I don't have to worry if I'm long. I just I I just need to go up obviously, right? I don't know how much it's going to go up. I would prefer if it went up a lot if I'm long, but I don't know how much it's going to go up. So, this is sort of a disadvantage to these people is they could get the direction right, but the amount wrong and lose money. You know, if I get long on the S&P right here and it goes up two points between now and the end of the year, >> well, then then at least I made two points, right? Where these people that are betting it's going to be up 100 or 200 or whatever, they they lose. The market went up two points from where they bought it and they lost all their money >> because it's a bet, right? It's binary. either you're right or you're wrong. You get paid or you don't. Right. >> Right. >> Um so this is more like an option market than anything else. Which is why quite frankly I don't trade options because I'm not uh that's not where I find my skill set to be. Uh for me options is more about being able to predict uh volatility than anything else. I don't have a skill set in predicting the volatility of an asset. Uh so with this it's the same thing. You know, my process tries to find where there's good riskreward directionally, but has no claim um to be able to know how to know how much that is going to be even when right. You know, the hope is that it's more than I think. The reality is it's probably less than I think, but if I can get it right, then over time I'll be fine. So, you know, that that's what I would say about that. It's a different bet. You know, this is an options bet. It looks like more than a more than a directional sort of futures bet to me. Well, let's move on to the uh markets themselves then. So, let's get your take on stocks uh particularly tech stocks and Bitcoin right now. So, people were talking about mainstream news and actually social media were basically lit up with fears of an AI bubble popping all throughout November. Remember when Nvidia was going down? It still hasn't recovered from its all-time top. And uh people were talking about this bust bursting and um despite all this chatter the uh NASDAQ composite is still edging higher still not at its late October high uh but rebounded from its uh mid November lows. Now when you hear chatter that there's a bubble that even you know even executives of tech companies themselves have used the word bubble to describe the current situation and yet the market continues to ignore that. What does that signal to you? >> I think it's silly that everybody talks bubble bubble every day. Bubble bubble bubble bubble you know. Um let's say that you are convinced that it is a bubble. Okay, good for you. And let's say you have all the evidence in the world that can prove beyond the shadow of a doubt that it's a bubble, which you don't have, but let's say you did. Okay, good for you. Um, and you had that evidence this whole time. Okay. Well, then you would have been short this whole time and you would have been losing money, first of all. If it's a bubble, what does that imply? That it's going to drop 80%. Isn't that what a bubble does? Right? A bubble drops 80%. Isn't that what we're saying? So if the market is going, if you are correct and it's a bubble and the market is going to drop 80%. Then I don't know why you're in such a rush to get short, you know, because the market is touching very close here anyway to all-time highs. And I I've been saying this all along. I'm happy to make the argument that it's a bubble and I'm happy to make the argument that it's not a bubble. But if it's a bubble and we're going to drop 80%, then I don't know why you have to sell so close to all-time highs. Let the market start to act poorly first, right? Even if you got to sell it down 10% off alltime highs, well, you still got 80% to go. So, what's the difference? Don't fight the tape is my point, right? No matter what your belief is. I always say this, no matter how you trade, it doesn't matter. Don't fight the tape. That's all I'm saying. Be bullish. Be bearish. I I don't care. Have your reasons. I don't care. I'm sure they're great reasons to be either one. But don't fight the tape because that's what loses you money. And like I say, if it's a bubble, then you're correct. Then you got plenty of room to run. You know, people have been calling this thing a bubble for a long time here. And and like I say, if you've been short based on that idea, you're hurting. You know, you're going to end up getting to the point where you're broke and then the bubble does hit. And I and I saw that in in 08. You know, I I worked at a pretty large hedge fund 05, 06, 07, 08. and and the macro people from the time I joined in '05 were very bearish because they thought of it was a housing bubble and they were very bearish and as it turned out they were totally correct it was a housing bubble and the market did crash but they were shorting it from '05 so by the time 08 rolled around they couldn't be short anymore because they had lost so much money being short so they weren't able to take advantage of it in08 even the famous you know big short movie guy. He caught that. But he too was was lucky that his investors didn't shut him down because he had been shorting it for 3 years and losing money for 3 years you know and that's a very hard thing to do when you have investors who are going to be you know breathing down your neck first of all and second of all when it's actually your money it's even harder because now you're losing money for 3 years. You're telling me that if you would have been shorting the market from ' 05 to08 because you thought it was a housing bubble and you were losing money that whole time that you would have stuck with it? I I don't I don't think you would have, you know. So, the point being you have to wait, you know, wait until the market agrees with you and then by all means short it because it's a bubble. You know I if we look if in 10 years this market is you know 60% lower than it is now could we look back to now and say well gee the signs are there yes we could certainly there's certainly signs of that you know some of the valuation stuff and the whole thing with the AI and all that um we could certainly look back and and point to signs sure but the one sign you can't point to is that the market doesn't go down so why not wait until that The other thing I would say is the other thing I would say is each bubble, I've been through a few of them, is different. And if you really look at what's gone on here over the last few months, you've had a lot of these stocks drop 40, 50, 60, 70%. you know, um I understand Nvidia hasn't, but a lot of the more bubbly, for lack of a better word, type of names um have dropped a lot, you know, and and kind of did do a bubble thing. Uh I mean, Oaklo was a great stock, you know, probably dropped, I don't know, 50 60% in the last six, seven weeks or something like that. I did say on Twitter like the other day, what is a crash? Is it 40%, is it 60%, is it 80%, I don't know what the definition of a crash is, but a lot of these stocks have crashed. A lot of these bubbly type stocks have in fact crashed. Not all of them. Nvidia hasn't. Um, but the other ones certainly have. You know, a few of them, um, more than a few of them have have certainly crashed. these sort of ones that were most in favor the first half of the year like this Goldman Sachs you know what do they call it uh lowquality name index type of thing which all these stocks that weren't making any money but were benefiting from the hype of AI and they were up 200 300% 400 those things have come down a lot you know 50 60% is a lot you know uh so in a way we we've sort of had a correction in there a big correction a big bare market and a lot of those names that I don't hear a lot of people talking about. They all want to focus on Nvidia, Nvidia, Nvidia, but a lot of these other names have in fact, for lack of a better word, crashed and the bubble has been popped. So, that's another way to look at it, I think. >> Let's take a look at uh well, you said the stocks are currently in a bull market. You said that in the very beginning of the interview. Let's talk let's take a look at Bitcoin then. Is Bitcoin currently still in the bull market? I mean it was and then it corrected somewhat and now it's kind of kind of consolidating around it it's it's it November bottom. What what have you people people telling you about Bitcoin? >> Bitcoin's a tough one you know because it's become like religion you know there there are the people who believe in Bitcoin as the future of the global payments system. Um, and I can't argue with them because quite frankly, I don't know enough about it. I don't sit here, first of all, I don't really trade Bitcoin. I own a little bit of Bitcoin. Um, not in the accounts that I manage for others, but in like my personal accounts, I own a little bit of Bitcoin. Um, but I don't know. I'm no expert on it. Um, but we have these people who who believe very strongly in the religion of Bitcoin and and they're probably never going to sell. Uh, some of those people have [snorts] been successful in the past and some of those people that I know um have had tremendous failures throughout their entire careers and have been nothing but fades throughout their entire careers. Uh, so I really don't have a great read on what Bitcoin is going to do or whether in a bull. It certainly isn't in a bull market anymore, but it could be again soon. What I did notice, I was looking last last week, last night or two days ago because when Bitcoin was having all its trouble on Monday, um since the first Bitcoin ETF started trading, the exact numbers aren't in front of me, but since that day, let's pick that day rather than pick random days because you tell people, oh, Bitcoin is down on the year and has underperformed stocks and this and people say, oh, but go back five years and Bitcoin is up, you know, 10,000% and outperforms everything. So, so rather than pick some random day, what about the day I think the day that that you could buy the ETF because I think that was a gamechanging day for Bitcoin because up until that point, you had to sort of take some risks that most people don't want to take, right? You had to open up this online wallet and buy it on some exchange that was owned by people that had proven to be doing some pretty dodgy things like, you know, Sam Bankman Freed or whatever. you know, you had to put your trust in these things. You could get hacked, right? And whatever Bitcoin you had could get stolen and all that. So, you had to take excess risk to buy Bitcoin back in those days. And with excess risk comes the possibility of excess returns. In fact, over time, financial theory will tell you if you want to earn excess returns, you have to take excess risk. It's pretty simple. Once the Bitcoin ETF started, you no longer really had to take excess risk in in [clears throat] Bitcoin. And since that day, Bitcoin has underperformed pretty much everything. The stock market, gold, silver, just about everything. It's up. >> Yeah, that was January 2024 was uh the first spot Bitcoin ETF. So, >> so it's up since then, right? But it's up a lot less than other assets. It's up less than stock. It's up less than gold. So sword hasn't been that great an investment since that day since they took the excess risk out of it. It really hasn't been that great an investment. Um will that change? Will you know? >> Well, hang on. Sorry. It since 2024 it's beaten stock. So I think you're talking about since 2025 it's underperformed everything else. >> Well I was looking from the first day that that first IBIT that I bit came out. >> I bit. Okay. Let's specifically look at because the first the first spot Bitcoin ETF launch was >> was uh was Okay. Let's let's actually I don't know when was the IBIT Bitcoin ETF launched? Let's look it up together. January >> January 11th, 2024. >> Yeah. >> So, what has Bitcoin done since January 11th, 2024? >> It's about 120% since January 2024. Yeah. NASDAQ's up 57 on my screen. Well, then I'm glad you pointed this out to me because maybe I got to go back and do some more homework because I had it wrong. But when I was looking at it on Monday, I had it. I I did not have that. I had >> Well, you're right about 2025, it's underperformed. But if you go back since 2024, it's it's it's it's beaten stocks by, you know, quite a lot. So, yeah, Jan, if you start from January 2024, it's up uh 114% and then uh NASDAQ's up 55%. Let's just take a look at gold. see how gold's done during the same period. Um, gold is up 102%. So, very close >> to Bitcoin. >> Look, if that's if that's correct, then I stand corrected. So, you can just discount everything I just said about that. >> Well, that's all right. Your point still stands. It's, you know, it's it's it's lagged behind some stocks uh especially this year if you want to talk about this year in particular. And that's what's been puzzling to people because even though if you go all the way back to 2024, which is a, you know, long time for Bitcoin's only been around for 14 years, right? So, if you take a two-year history, that's big chunk of its history. It's outperformed everything else that we talked about. But this here, I think what people are wondering is why is it if you look at the blue blue line here, that's Bitcoin. You look at gold, that's green, and then you look at this, the the NASDAQ composite, that's the bar chart here. And even though Bitcoin still kind of follows the NASDAQ on a on a correlation basis, you the beta on the downside is a lot higher. So the NASDAQ has corrected somewhat between September, late September and October. Bitcoin has followed that but just went down a lot more and hasn't really gone back up. And so people are wondering, okay, well, was the capital going to somewhere else? Is it is it done? I mean, people just sold off in Bitcoin and rotated into something else and party's over for now. That's that's what the Bitcoin community is kind of wondering right now. >> Yeah. You know, um and I I wish I had the answer for them. Um but like I say, I'm no Bitcoin expert, so I I couldn't tell you. Um >> what do you think about gold? What do you think about this this this this green line that's just it doesn't stop? It's just this straight line up from 2024. If you want to start from 2024, I mean, look at what it's done. It's just a straight line basically up. Going back to what we were talking about before, if we're living in a world where central bank policy and fiscal policy is to just continually in one form or another print money, then clearly and this is what the Bitcoiners love, right? Because It's about getting away from fiat currency. Um, gold's going to go up, you know, and like I say, there doesn't seem to be an end to the desire for these people to continue to print money. So, I don't know why, >> and again, this is the one thing that would make me nervous is saying this, but I I don't know why gold would stop or or silver would stop or or for that matter, you can make the same argument on Bitcoin. I mean, gold has really no more utility than than Bitcoin has. It's a store of value if we want it to be a store of value, right? I guess you could use gold to do other things. I mean, jewelry and whatever. It's a soft metal, but in general, for the most part, it it's nothing but a store of value and has been that for thousands of years. Um, and now Bitcoin is supposed to be the same thing. It might not at this point have very many uses. And therefore, people will make the argument that it doesn't have intrinsic value, but does gold really have intrinsic value? You know, not very much. And and that's worked for thousands of years. So, why couldn't it be the same for Bitcoin? I see no reason why it couldn't. Um, you know, there's a few questionable things going on there with MSTR and Michael Sailor and some things that look sort of at least on the surface Ponziish um that could affect it, but it's just like anything else. It's not going to affect it if it goes up. You know, it's only going to affect, you know, MSTR is only in trouble if the obvious to state the obvious. If Bitcoin goes down, you know, then you got a problem. So, as long as this Bitcoin is holding in and going up, then then it's all fine. So, uh I like I say, I have a few% of my savings in in Bitcoin cuz I think the potential for it is is certainly there, but could I also see it become useless? Yes, worthless, I should say. I I could see that possibility. If you can't see that possibility, then I think you're you're lying to yourself because what I've learned over 30 plus years in the markets is anything is possible in financial markets and financial instruments. So, I'm not saying Bitcoin is going to be worthless, but I'm saying if you think that there's zero chance of that happening, then I think you're fooling yourself or you're you're selling something to somebody because there's never zero chance of something happening. We don't know that governments could come out against it. who who knows what could happen, right? Um you would think that the governments wouldn't come out against it because the Trump organization has decided that they have want to invest a lot of money in this stuff. So I wouldn't think that they would come out against it, but yeah. >> Okay, let's end on um one or two trades that you are bullish on besides stocks. I think the short short dollar is a is a good idea. >> Okay. >> Um long things like the yen, long things like Canada I think are becoming good ideas here. Um >> you're going to long Canada for sorry yen and Canada. Can you just explain why yen and Canada? >> It [clears throat] all just comes off of my positioning stuff. That's where I find people are the most short and the most bearish. And now they and now they are starting to react better. In particular, Canada. I think Canada better than than yen. Um Canada is the the currency that people are most short from what I can tell and it has started to act well in spite of that. So that means that there's a lot of shorts out there that if it continues to act well there are going to have to cover their shorts. Um that's that's the game that I play. So um that's why I like that one. Um, as for the rest of them, you know, uh, you know, I'm looking at things like sugar, cotton, things that most people are not going to be interested in. Um, I don't see much edge in the financial stuff right now. Um, which doesn't mean that I would be short, just means it's not the time for me, based on what I do, to be aggressively long. Um I still think that if you are going to be playing in the stock market world um you almost always not always but almost always want to error to the long side because there's upward drift you know so why not take advantage of the upward drift right uh this idea like I said in the beginning that everybody's trying to find the top and pick the top and call the top and top top top. It's silly. It's a it's an exercise in silliness and and it has made them look foolish for the last few years. Uh I see the people on your show and on many other shows just come on week after week after week and and say the same thing and they all have their different reasons the technical part of it or the fundamental part of it or you know whatever it is. Few people see this and few people see that and they've just made themselves look foolish and they continue to make themselves look foolish. Will the stock market go down one day? Probably. Um, but to just continually go on there every week and then try and pick the top and try and pick the top based on all these things to me is is silly. You air to the long side. And when the start when the market stops acting well, um, then you can think about pulling back on that. But, and it did stop acting well uh, a few weeks ago. It didn't react well to Palunteer earnings. It didn't react well to Nvidia earnings, right? Um, but it continues to and it didn't act well. Well, those were didn't act well, but then we had a period where the chances of a rate cut in December went down a lot and the stock market went down with it. That was to be expected. And as soon as the chances of rate cuts went back up to where they are now, the stock market went right back up. So, it just shows you that's really what it's all about now. So if the market stops acting well in relation to the whole idea of them cutting rates and the whole idea of more liquidity, then I would get nervous and then we can talk about, you know, trying to go the other way. But until then, I think it's I think it's just silly. >> Excellent. Let's close it off here, Jason. Good thoughts today. Thank you for sharing your analysis. Where can we find you? >> Crowdarketreport.com. >> All right. Put a link down below. So follow crowdreport.com >> on YouTube as well. A lot of free YouTube videos come out on there. So, you could search on YouTube for [sighs and gasps] Crowd of Market Report on YouTube. A lot of videos that you can watch and tell me what a loser [snorts] I am and all. [laughter] >> People like, >> we're not going to do that. >> I love I love it. I love it. >> Okay. Well, you can you can comment on his videos by going to the links down below and follow his work. So, thank you for thank you for appearing on the program. You can also comment on this particular video and say whatever you like. But uh always good to have you Jason. Always good to have you. See you next time. >> Good to be here David. Thanks. >> Thanks for watching. Don't forget to like and subscribe and follow Jason Shapiro down in the links below. And don't forget to use my promo code lin lin when you sign up to Koshi uh the US's largest regulated prediction market. You'll get $10 on your first $100 deposit using my promo code. So link down below or scan the QR code here.