Gold & Silver Go Parabolic: Henrik Zeberg Warns What Comes Next
Summary
Precious Metals: Sharp moves in gold and silver were analyzed with emphasis on liquidity, psychology, and central bank demand, but caution was urged on the pace of gains and potential pullbacks.
Gold: Long-term bullish view including potential for much higher prices over the next decade, while near-term vulnerability exists if the dollar strengthens and recession dynamics emerge.
Silver: The spike to new highs was described as overdone given weak industrial demand signals, raising the risk of a retracement.
US Equities: Fed liquidity via non-QE T-bill purchases supports a continuing blow-off top and near-term risk-asset strength, with the S&P at highs despite underlying economic cracks.
AI: Long-term productivity gains are set to be a major global growth driver, but short-term labor displacement and hiring hesitation could weigh on the real economy.
Labor & Consumer: Weakening participation, longer unemployment durations, and rising reliance on support programs indicate consumer stress, echoed by commentary on meal-skipping at value chains.
Inflation Outlook: Disinflation trends from oil and rents persist; the $40B in T-bill buys is viewed as liquidity support rather than inflationary, though a secular uptrend in inflation is likely over decades.
Risks & Positioning: Leading indicators point toward recession risk; the guest prefers patience on adding to metals after parabolic moves while acknowledging liquidity-driven upside in the near term for risk assets.
Transcript
The precious metals are going parabolic. Gold is trading over $4,300, but silver is over $64 an ounce. It's moved over $11 within just 10 short days. That's absolutely insane. It's exciting to watch. But what is trigger what what has triggered that move? What what is what is it? Is it to stay? Is it is there more to come? I'm quite excited as you can tell about that move, but I'm also trying to put some some a framework around it because I don't want to get call get get caught here on on the downside as well. So really trying to understand what is going on. I've invited a fantastic guest to help us shape that macro picture. His name is Henry Zeber. He's the macroeconomist over at Swiss. He's been a frequent guest on this program and somebody you should be familiar with. But I'm also trying to understand, of course, the recent Fed move. Is QE back? Should we be worried about the $40 billion that the Fed is now uh spending on T bills? What does that mean? What's the impact here? And of course, how far along in the cycle are we here? According to Henrik, really looking forward to the conversation. In the meantime, before I switch over to my guest, hit that like and subscribe button. Helps us out tremendously and we much appreciate it. Now, Henrik, it is great to welcome you back on the program. It's good to see you again. >> Good to see you, Kai. Yeah, really looking forward to the conversation and let's dive right in because we had uh Fed week this week just on Wednesday. It was quite an interesting Fed uh Fed Fed meeting and and the press conference as well. Um the dot plot of course is one thing. The descends is the other. But then the QE happened as or they don't call it Qi, they call it non QE or they didn't put a label on it. They try to avoid it. Maybe we'll start with your takeaways from the Fed conference or Fed press conference and meeting here. What what did you take away from it? Well, I you know, like you, I um I I wasn't maybe I wasn't too too surprised about the that they came out more dovish. I mean, what I see is that you have a an economy that is clearly deteriorating as I've been shouting from the rooftop that it's been visible for quite some time. I think there is a an economy in two stages. you have a you know the 10% of the economy which means 10% of the richest consumers in the one state and then you have the the bottom 90% or even 70 to 90% of the economy is is not in a good state and I think you what you're seeing is that right now the Fed is um has not been in the um understanding of that deterioration the economy until August maybe and then they started to dawn on them that maybe things weren't that great when we saw the revisions to the non-farm payrolls they I noticed also that they were focus focusing on that the consumer seemed you know uh resilient and what that but I I I you know honestly that is a very strange picture to to paint because if you look just again outside of the 10% it's absolutely not the case so I think you know what you saw is the Fed coming out trying to paint a picture that is a not a gloomy picture but understanding that there are some cracks in the under the surface or the the ice under them has started to crack and they don't want to say QE uh because who likes to to to you know refer to something that we automatically would um you know become um looking into the same kind of situation we had in in 2008 or after when we have had problems. So I think the uh the narrative there is is something different. We need we just need to take care of these liquidity issues and that is what they they come out and and say okay now we're doing going to do this uh these treasury uh buys here from today on. Um to me you can either expand or contract the balance sheet or it can stay stable. But you know these are the two if you want to do something and what they came from is just 10 days ago that it was to expand to stop expanding or to contract it actually and now they're back to expanding it. Uh that is liquidity to the market 100%. And uh and I think it's going to be taken as that liquidity which is what the markets would like and they're going to see that the the the blowoff top that I has been occurring and people have to understand it's not like something that happens over one or two days or five days has been occurring since 22 actually in a extreme rally in the equity markets is going to continue for a little while now and that I I think can also move into other assets like in the cryptophere and we're going to see more of the uh crypto markets also rallying. So liquidity uh from the Fed, not calling it QE, nonQE, whatever they call it, but it's going to help the market soar into the final uh next few months. >> Oh, absolutely. And you know, S&P 500 is at an all-time high again, over 6,900 points. We'll we'll get to the markets here in a second because I want to dissect uh the underlying, let's say, moves um in in the in the data perhaps as well. Um you you look at the leading and lagging lagging indicator quite closely here as well. I know, Henrik. Um, let's look at unemployment and the employment data in particular because that's what the Fed puts a lot of emphasis on and we got Joel's job data report uh this week as well just ahead of the Fed meeting a few hours before then and it looked positive because it beat the forecast and I don't want to interpret too much into it but I'm curious like it seems like we're panicking and that's just my estimate my opinion by the way we're panicking maybe a bit too much about the employment data and it's maybe just a smoke screen to to just lower interest rates like really curious what your thoughts are maybe we can dissect that together a little bit. >> Actually, I think we've panicking too too little about the employment numbers. Uh honestly, I mean the uh the if you look to the labor market, it is weakening and if you look to the capacity utilization of businesses in the US, it's at 75%. So you either at this point here you businesses are now 25% surplus. They have 25% surplus capacity. I mean if you want to think hiring or not hiring if you had that in your business and normally you would be start laying people off if you had 10 15 uh% service capacity now you at 25% service capacity. So who is it exactly that is going to go out there and buying or bringing new people in. And if you look to the consumers they don't seem like they are ready to uh to be engaging or can afford uh you know spending more. So something has to give. And I I honestly think that if you look to the non-farm payrolls, they have been deteriorating all year. Remember we started out in in Q1 by having 144 200 and something in terms of the the Q uh non-farm payrolls which were the first estimates. Then came August and all of a sudden we had negative numbers. We need to remind ourselves as soon as we get something down to these numbers we see right now, we always fall into a recession late at a later stage. It's not immediately. This is what people don't understand. It's not something that just happens overnight. It's a deterioration. It's a slow grind towards the uh the end. Titanic didn't sink immediately when it hits the they hit the iceberg. It you know it takes a while. The the the water comes in on the lower classes first the the the third grade passengers or third class not third grade third class passengers uh were you know went under first and then the waters you know rose up to the higher levels and we have exactly that situation right now in the US. So I think there is too much focus on the top 10% the the AI businesses and so on. And guess what? That's what we've seen into every recession. We forget about that the real economy in the US and elsewhere are the real consumers. The consumers that are the 10 19 to let's say 70 to 90% of the consumers that is the real world. And right now the numbers for the real consumers are worse than we saw into 1929 into n 2007208 when it comes in terms of food lines stamp you know the participation in stamp programs and so on food stamps all these things is something we simply just you we disregard and we just say yeah yeah but there is going to be liquidity the economy is fine because we have the AI and we have so forth. Guess what? AI is not going to save the world. AI is going to make it worse for the businesses that is actually maybe thinking of expanding something because they'll say maybe we shouldn't hire two people. We can hire one and then make use of AI as well. This is a good thing long term but it's not a good thing short term and especially not in an economy where you have the consumer is completely underwater >> if you look at it in the in the lower lower um income levels. So I think we are I think far from we we are you know panicking too little about the unemployment and we have to understand what they have been planning uh panicking about is inflation numbers which are ridiculous because inflation is at 3%. It's not a problem. It is not a problem. And if we look down beneath and actually look back to the recession periods into 2007 and 8, we would see that when the Fed started to panic in 2008 and started to do double cuts or 50 basis point cuts in January of 2008, inflation was going up and we were ending up at around 5.5% mid of 2008. Was inflation a problem back in 2008 when it came to the end of year? No, it was not. So the problem is the Fed is looking out the rear window right now and not out the front window. That's how I see it. And I have been right so far in terms of the economy deteriorating and the ship is staying afloat, but we are getting closer and closer to the moment where where also the second and first class passengers are going to feel the uh the wet water. >> Cold water. >> Yeah. Oh, very cold water. Absolutely. No hypothermia is instant. Right. So um the what data should we be looking at? That's maybe a better gauge than maybe just the naked unemployment number cuz 4 and a.5% like I'm not personally the number itself doesn't scare me too much here in Germany we have 6.4% 4% we're 2% higher, right? And and nobody really talks about unemployment over here. >> So what are some of the better indicators that maybe highlight the third class passengers um that we you know to see those underlying trends? Um maybe just one suggestion I I saw earlier today was maybe car repossessions and things like that or credit card defaults. Curious what you're thinking, what you're looking at. >> Oh yeah, but that's that's some of the things we can be looking at. I mean we have the we have an economy that is uh clearly um the the the first class passengers don't don't see this and this is the the situation but if you look at the uh the number of people actually living paycheck to paycheck that number is higher than going into 2008 crisis that's 60 to 70% of the US population live paycheck to paycheck if you look at the numbers of people actually on food programs right now it is soaring and is much higher than when we went into it's actually higher now than it was actually coming out of the recessions in 2008 and 9. So the the situation here right now is that the consumer is where people need to look and nobody looks at the way. It seems like everybody's just so focused on what happens in the in corporate US. The real corporate US is the medium-sized sized uh business and the consumer that goes to McDonald's and so on. And if you look to McDonald's also the CEO there has been making some quite strong remarks on this. They can clearly see now that people are simply skipping meals or skipping you know uh you know daily meals because they they simply can't afford it. They can see that and that this is again what we just see that you have the uh let's let's eat let them eat cake situation which is always what we see into into a recession because again the ship goes down with the bottom first with the third class passengers and that's that they they they see it. If you look to the numbers and you say which one should we look at? First of all, we have to understand the unemployment number is dependent on the participation rate. And if the participation rate is declining, which means that people are drawing away from the from the labor market, that means that you can actually have a stable number of people unemployed. And if the participation rate then drops, you will actually see that the unemployment number drops, which is ridiculous because the same number of people are unemployed. So what you're seeing right now is the unemploy the participation rate is declining. That is a very worrying sign and you'll because people are simply feeling that we are not relative to the rel relevant to the market sorry >> and um the the the other part you could look at is the average weeks of unemployment this is a sets a major signal to us saying the number of of weeks that people are unemployed right now in the US on an average level that is 24 weeks going into the financial crisis before the financial crisis it was 16 weeks we are now 15% higher than that and If you look to the whole period, we are now way above what we saw into 2009 and ever since 1940s actually all the way back there. So right now you're seeing again a US where the participation rate is down. You see that people are struggling to make ends meet in terms of the uh food stamp program and the paycheck to paycheck. And we see that uh that simply also the the number of weeks that they are unemployed are longer and and keep rising which it by the way only does into recessions. So that we are not seeing it yet is not the same as the ship will stay afloat. And I think people are misunderstanding that. Oh, but we haven't. It's not sinking. No, it's not. But you know, it's uh it's we are actually sinking, but it's just going very slowly. And that's that's the problem. Maybe I wouldn't say counterargument, but maybe just to challenge you a little bit. The uh the homeland the Department of Homeland Security put out some data just a couple of days ago saying that about more than 2.5 million illegal aliens left the US in 2025. Um ju just as a bit of a counter trend because I thought one of my guests made that comment on this program here this week as well. So I was like, hm. So they they have some of them and I'm not sure what the demographic breakdown is. how many of them were kids, adults, um retire, retired or unemployable um people. Um like do you factor that part in as well just as a bit of a counter trend as well that maybe slows down uh the flood of unemployment? >> I I I don't get that honestly. I don't understand that because if people are leaving the country that is a bad thing for the economy also. I mean it's a bad thing if people are leaving the country. We have to understand that people that lives there they have to buy food. So when they come and work, even if they work and they don't pay tax or whatever, they're there illegally. If people are leaving the country, that means that there will be fewer people to actually go down to McDonald's and pay, you know, whatever it is. That is not a good thing for an economy. An economy can grow by two things. They can grow by the number of people actually rising or the number of the the productivity of each capita actually rising. So these are the two ways you can do it and that's why there are countries like Denmark for instance we need to you know have more pits here otherwise we will see our you know uh GDP levels are actually starting to decline or or we need to have higher productivity levels. The problem is that the the situation that you're sending people out of the country is not necessarily that's something that puts a a a uh that puts a downward pressure on the economy also in the long run. I don't understand that argument honest honestly I I I hear it and it's like but people may have to explain it to me a little better then >> no absolutely no it is an interesting topic because there's so many nuances to it as well and it's not an exact science I would agree uh I would agree with right um coming back to the Fed um real quick uh AI and higher productivity Jerome Powell actually briefly spoke about that as well which I thought was an interesting remark uh because he said the implication is obviously higher uh productivity some of that may be AI high and higher productivity leads to uh economic growth as well. Um how are you factoring that part in because I thought it was an interesting comment. >> Oh but I think AI is going to accelerate and explode the productivity of humankind. I mean over the next uh 10 50 years you know the majority of growth in the world is going to be driven you know in in majority of that by by the uh the advances in technology and from from AI. I'm 100% certain of that. It's a it's it's a no-brainer. Um that that is however not the situation that we you know because in a short time frame you will see that AI can actually be a down have a downward pressure on people if people you know normally you would have two people doing a certain certain job could be white collar it could be whatever blue collar kind of job but you can actually all of a sudden see that this can actually be per performed by one person that is great for the for the for the business owner there at that point that is great because he doesn't need to hire two people in but it's not a good thing for the economy unless that person that does not get employed then finds another job. But the problem right now you're seeing the continuous jobless claims are going up and that requires that the businesses are actually capable and will open more positions. What you see right now is that the the surplus capacity in the business in the in yeah US businesses is at 25% as I said before. So it you know it's not it's a great thing with productivity gains and that is what drives the world forward but in a short time frame and we have to distinguish between short and longer and medium-term that is not necessarily a good thing. So happy that it happens and we we going to I mean who would have liked to ride on horses today and and in carriages and so on. No, we need the we need these uh technology leaps and they're going to help us tremendously but in the short time frame and that is what I think right now is the problem where you have a lot of people in the US that are becoming irrelevant to the market also because they haven't a certain age I mean I'm 50 I mean if it wasn't because I've been working with computers uh you know it uh all for my whole life it probably could have been a bit you know difficult for me but if you all of a sudden are you know sitting there um and you have to do it or you need to you know you can become come more and more irrelevant if you don't you know know how to do that and a lot of people still my age a little older 5 10 years older than me would still need to make an income and and they will become more and more irrelevant to the market that is a problem so I think the we have to distinguish between that there is a technology leap that is going to send this the humankind civilization everything you know skyrocketing to the next you know frontier no doubt about that and we're going to solve a lot of the problems we have today with AI and quantum computing and all these things but that is not the same as the wealth and the um short-term uh thriving of an economy and that I think is what people miss. So yes, there will be productivity gains which actually can be on the expense for a lot of people on the short time frame which is not what the US economy needs at this point. Is it a good thing? Yeah, because like when you are shifting gears in a car, you know, there's a little loss of momentum and then you get into a higher gear and it accelerates. That is what you also will see with an economy. When you have a new technology leap, it's like shifting gears into a new gear and we can accelerate but in the short term there is a momentum loss and that momentum loss can be two, five, 10 years e, you know, easily. We will see it happening but you need to see the capacity and the abilities of the of the labor force actually to to engage with this and to take it in. Young people not a problem but guess what we have 45 years 40 years 45 years 50 years and so on that will also need to earn a living for the next many years and they some of them may be challenged by what we see here. Hence good thing but a bad thing. No, absolutely. I think without AI, my job wouldn't be possible anymore. Like I'd be down to two interviews a week at best. You know, it just wouldn't work. >> Exactly. >> Same for me. I mean, I will also, you know, enhance my productivity with what comes out there. 100%. And it's a good thing in the long term for for everybody. I'm see as I see it. >> Absolutely. Um, one one measure the the the Fed is using nowadays and in order not to slow down momentum too much is nonQE. We talked about this earlier real quick, but I do want to come back to it because I really want to understand like what are the implications of the $40 billion that the Fed is now using to buy uh T bills short ter shortdated Treasury Treasury bonds u meaning like two years and below I think are T- bills. I'm always get confused by the definition of T bills and bonds and all those but um are are is that inflationary because I I looked it up like that money that they're that they're creating or using is being created out of thin air to buy that. Yes, it's only 40 billion, which sounds ridiculous if you think about it. If you only make €2,000 a month net, right? 40 billion is a lot of money, but in the grand scheme of things, it's a drop in the bucket. So, I'm really curious like what you think the implications are in in in general inflation growth. You talked about risk assets earlier. So, I'm curious. I I think um first of all when it comes to inflation and we I I'm sure we're going to touch on gold and silver as well and you have a said you have a a moment there to um to shine also. Uh I I think I think this about inflation there is a difference between a structural long-term inflation and there is short-term inflation. If you look to go if you look to oil right now you'll see that oil has been heading lower for a long time. If you look to the pressures from rental market, you'll see that the pressures from inflation is moving lower. What has shifted dramatically after 2020 and which I probably also underestimated in the beginning is actually the psychological effect of things where people are started actually people that are you know 20 years younger than me at least here uh would probably never even remember that we had something that is was called inflation back in the days. I mean, I hardly can remember it because it, you know, from the 19 mid190s, it just dropped and it dropped, you know, sharply into the early 2000s. Um, the problem is that when it comes back, it's something that people really understand and see because they meet it every day when they go down and buy the grocery, the normal package, they can all of a sudden see that they are not able to buy the same package of groceries that they bought yesterday. That is why it's a big thing for people and it has an a tendency to actually come into the backbone and people remembering it. Why is this important? Because everything about economics is in psychology and especially about the consumer. So now the consumer has felt the pressures of inflation and their real wages haven't come up and compensated. They haven't got back to the same level of real wages as they had in 2020. That is a problem for people and that's why cons inflation is a problem. But people have a tendency to misunder understand what inflation is and what the the price level is. The problem is right now that you have a price level that rose from the uh from in the u after the co uh stimulus came out in 20 to 2022 and people talk about the 3% as a a problem. 3% is not a problem for the economy. there is a mandate around 2% for the for at 2% for the Fed and they try to micromanage the the economy like if they were able to you know turn this up and the the inflation level up and down like that that is actually their the thick hubris that they are as that I also describe in my book that they right now they think they have these omni potent powers that they are demigods that can actually turn inflation up and down. What they completely miss in that process is the the consumer side that we just talked about as well. So as I see it, we are talking too much about inflation which right now with the key drivers of things are being pushed lower by oil and rent and so on which is the a topic for everybody which by the way I think has been the reason why we have seen gold and silver now running higher because it's not supported by what you see especially silver as a uh as you know more of an industrial product uh by by the demand in the industrial sector. So, so that's where I think it's all by you know the talk of the narrative of inflation. Then having said all that, I think there is a secular bottom in inflation because that is very clear when we look to some of the charts which um when we look at in um long-term 10-year yields and so on that we have shifted to a new inflationary regime which is going to take us much higher over the next 10 20 30 years maybe even like what we saw from the 1982 and down to where we are or where we were in 2020. This is how it works. We have cyclical behavior in inflation. So I think longterm we are going to see inflation. The am I afraid about what the money that comes into the the monetary uh easing we have here. I don't think it's going to bring out inflation as much. The problem was in in 2020 was that we saw fiscal stimulus. The fiscal stimulus is the problem because there you actually put them put money in the hand of people and they were sitting back home and by the way there they didn't go to work which meant that the supply chains were breaking down which created inflation which surprised the Fed you know greatly. They did not see a 9.1 to rise in inflation and a lot of other people. It also surprised me that it was this much. But I think this is what people think like inflation. So am I afraid that this 40 billion that comes in now is going to create inflation? No, I'm not. I am more concerned that the Fed is so hawkish and have been so hawkish for such a long time. And it's actually building into the psychology of the consumer, which is what we see right now, which is why the consumer is also struggling. And that pressure that this this disinflationary pressure we have right now is going to come to to um to show the moment we see also that unemployment starts to rise which I think we are we are seeing we are in that process where it goes higher then you're going to see that the deflationary pressures are going to come out. So shortterm I think there's going to be more disinflation. Uh and again we have to remember that um yeah we we can't print money forever and it's going to come to haunt us but again it's about the medium and the short-term uh time frames. >> Absolutely. I think Jerome Powell said most most inflation was actually in tariff related goods as well. So the rest of the economy uh the rest of the services and goods are prices are actually coming down. So sort of confirming what you just said there Henrik. Um I I just quickly just for 30 seconds or so I just want to talk about this chart. Um it's the leading indicators leading economic indicators that the conference board is putting out and we're in massive decline here. It looks like it has accelerated here in 2025. I know you follow those economic indicators quite closely Henrik. Um what should we be bracing for here? >> Yeah. So uh so first of all they I I I found it interesting that just I think it was a year ago they came out and said oh they will call off the inflation uh the recession because actually if you treat these right you will understand that when they start to drop like what they do here this has always brought about a recession. The thing is we have just had more more time this this more room this time around because of the in of the savings rate that people were able to to save during the after the COVID uh stimulus and also if you were a business and you were building up capacity because everybody was doing fine. >> If you were building up capacity there you not so prone to actually go and cut that capacity again which is what we see right now. That's why they keep 25% you know surplus capacity in on average. So businesses are holding back and was expecting the consumer to come back and the consumer is not cable because they have seen the the the rise in prices. So what you see here is simply that the uh the leading indicators are in a decline and uh and if you look to what is called the the real economy they have always the leading indicators always lead the coincident and real economy lower. So people can look at this and say this is not going to be any this is not so bad or they can say well actually every time we have this rollover we get a recession and I uh and I stick to the business cycle and say well the ship can stay afloat for longer than people think but and we can keep pumping the markets up but when it eventually turns because of the consumer then it's going to be a really bad day. It's has it lasted longer than I expected? Yes it has. hot. That doesn't change the fact that the ship has hit the iceberg and there's water coming in all over and it's getting worse. I mean, the situation now in the consumer layer, it's unbelievable that the Fed is not on top of that. >> Yeah. No, I I fully agree. Um, you know, we have to talk gold and silver real quick as well. We got about 3 minutes left, unfortunately, but gold has has moved tremendously higher, uh, 4,300 as we speak. Silver now at $64 an ounce as well. you you hinted at the price moves and maybe some of the motivation behind the moves in in those precious precious metals. Um let's dig a little deeper. What what's your forecast here for the precious metals? >> I think first of all we have to I have to acknowledge that we we saw a breakout that is just taking it higher and uh this happened before I expected it to happen. I did expect earlier that we would see this coming after you see the Fed coming in after you know this uh this next recession that we are potentially heading into. I take that we we definitely see have seen this move. Does that mean we'll just continue here? I don't think so. I actually in the long time frame and I think I said that a year al ago also in in Frankfurt, I think we could see 35,000 on on gold coming into the 2035s or something like that. It's you know in 10 years time. No problem with that because we've seen these expansion of the balance sheet and I you know being told if you're b gold guy or bitcoin guy I will say I'm a gold guy any day because that is still the you know the the foundation of uh of societies and uh and uh yeah of the financial world but I think if you're going to see the dollar still that I is still in the bottoming phase and I think you're going to see that in 26 that is going to rise strongly. If it does that, I think gold and silver will come back down. And the move in silver as we see it right now, it's it's just, you know, a little overdone, so to speak. There's no demand that really justifies what we see here. So, it's like to me it seems like, oh, we have inflation, hence we need to go get to gold. Obviously, obviously there is a change and you can see also in in Asia and elsewhere that people are people and and uh central banks are buying gold and they understand that we're coming to a you know potential monetary reset at some point where gold will be the you know whatever you need what what you need to have not it's not going to be bitcoin and uh and that that time it's really about having your storage is full of it. So I think that is what's happening. Does it mean it cannot come down? No. I think you can see it coming down quite strongly. Uh but I have to say it's uh it's making new alltime highs all the way. So we don't know how far this can go before the strong dollar can take over and bring it somewhat down. So I would be careful in just buying into it right now and just observing what happens into a recessionary uh uh setup and then uh and then after that I'll be the biggest guy buyer of it. But yeah, I uh it moved higher and longer and stronger than I expected. >> Yeah. No, I think we're all super excited about the move, but um I mentioned it earlier. I'm a little worried about the the pace of it all. Right. Uh it's it's so absolutely Henrik, always enjoyed the conversation with you. Really appreciate you joining us here just before Christmas. Um where can we send our audience to follow more of your work. >> Well, it's yeah, go to xenrik or to um Swissblock and also find our uh Swiss blog economy and market uh uh services or my Seabour letter which we also uh publish once a month. So this is where you can go. Fantastic. Awesome. Henrik, thank you so much for joining us. Tremendously appreciate it and can't wait to do this again soon. Uh maybe in person. Let's see where we can run into each other again. So that would be fun. So thank you. >> So no, Henrik, thank you so much. And to everybody else, thank you so much for tuning in. How worried are you about the $40 billion that the Fed is now creating out of thin air? Do you think it'll hit inflation sooner than later? Um what is your time horizon? How are you positioned? Are you storming back into risk assets? Let us know down below. We do want to hear from you because we do read the comments and we try to include them in our conversations. So, thanks so much for tuning in. Happy holidays, merry Christmas, and of course, enjoy your weekend. Take care out there.
Gold & Silver Go Parabolic: Henrik Zeberg Warns What Comes Next
Summary
Transcript
The precious metals are going parabolic. Gold is trading over $4,300, but silver is over $64 an ounce. It's moved over $11 within just 10 short days. That's absolutely insane. It's exciting to watch. But what is trigger what what has triggered that move? What what is what is it? Is it to stay? Is it is there more to come? I'm quite excited as you can tell about that move, but I'm also trying to put some some a framework around it because I don't want to get call get get caught here on on the downside as well. So really trying to understand what is going on. I've invited a fantastic guest to help us shape that macro picture. His name is Henry Zeber. He's the macroeconomist over at Swiss. He's been a frequent guest on this program and somebody you should be familiar with. But I'm also trying to understand, of course, the recent Fed move. Is QE back? Should we be worried about the $40 billion that the Fed is now uh spending on T bills? What does that mean? What's the impact here? And of course, how far along in the cycle are we here? According to Henrik, really looking forward to the conversation. In the meantime, before I switch over to my guest, hit that like and subscribe button. Helps us out tremendously and we much appreciate it. Now, Henrik, it is great to welcome you back on the program. It's good to see you again. >> Good to see you, Kai. Yeah, really looking forward to the conversation and let's dive right in because we had uh Fed week this week just on Wednesday. It was quite an interesting Fed uh Fed Fed meeting and and the press conference as well. Um the dot plot of course is one thing. The descends is the other. But then the QE happened as or they don't call it Qi, they call it non QE or they didn't put a label on it. They try to avoid it. Maybe we'll start with your takeaways from the Fed conference or Fed press conference and meeting here. What what did you take away from it? Well, I you know, like you, I um I I wasn't maybe I wasn't too too surprised about the that they came out more dovish. I mean, what I see is that you have a an economy that is clearly deteriorating as I've been shouting from the rooftop that it's been visible for quite some time. I think there is a an economy in two stages. you have a you know the 10% of the economy which means 10% of the richest consumers in the one state and then you have the the bottom 90% or even 70 to 90% of the economy is is not in a good state and I think you what you're seeing is that right now the Fed is um has not been in the um understanding of that deterioration the economy until August maybe and then they started to dawn on them that maybe things weren't that great when we saw the revisions to the non-farm payrolls they I noticed also that they were focus focusing on that the consumer seemed you know uh resilient and what that but I I I you know honestly that is a very strange picture to to paint because if you look just again outside of the 10% it's absolutely not the case so I think you know what you saw is the Fed coming out trying to paint a picture that is a not a gloomy picture but understanding that there are some cracks in the under the surface or the the ice under them has started to crack and they don't want to say QE uh because who likes to to to you know refer to something that we automatically would um you know become um looking into the same kind of situation we had in in 2008 or after when we have had problems. So I think the uh the narrative there is is something different. We need we just need to take care of these liquidity issues and that is what they they come out and and say okay now we're doing going to do this uh these treasury uh buys here from today on. Um to me you can either expand or contract the balance sheet or it can stay stable. But you know these are the two if you want to do something and what they came from is just 10 days ago that it was to expand to stop expanding or to contract it actually and now they're back to expanding it. Uh that is liquidity to the market 100%. And uh and I think it's going to be taken as that liquidity which is what the markets would like and they're going to see that the the the blowoff top that I has been occurring and people have to understand it's not like something that happens over one or two days or five days has been occurring since 22 actually in a extreme rally in the equity markets is going to continue for a little while now and that I I think can also move into other assets like in the cryptophere and we're going to see more of the uh crypto markets also rallying. So liquidity uh from the Fed, not calling it QE, nonQE, whatever they call it, but it's going to help the market soar into the final uh next few months. >> Oh, absolutely. And you know, S&P 500 is at an all-time high again, over 6,900 points. We'll we'll get to the markets here in a second because I want to dissect uh the underlying, let's say, moves um in in the in the data perhaps as well. Um you you look at the leading and lagging lagging indicator quite closely here as well. I know, Henrik. Um, let's look at unemployment and the employment data in particular because that's what the Fed puts a lot of emphasis on and we got Joel's job data report uh this week as well just ahead of the Fed meeting a few hours before then and it looked positive because it beat the forecast and I don't want to interpret too much into it but I'm curious like it seems like we're panicking and that's just my estimate my opinion by the way we're panicking maybe a bit too much about the employment data and it's maybe just a smoke screen to to just lower interest rates like really curious what your thoughts are maybe we can dissect that together a little bit. >> Actually, I think we've panicking too too little about the employment numbers. Uh honestly, I mean the uh the if you look to the labor market, it is weakening and if you look to the capacity utilization of businesses in the US, it's at 75%. So you either at this point here you businesses are now 25% surplus. They have 25% surplus capacity. I mean if you want to think hiring or not hiring if you had that in your business and normally you would be start laying people off if you had 10 15 uh% service capacity now you at 25% service capacity. So who is it exactly that is going to go out there and buying or bringing new people in. And if you look to the consumers they don't seem like they are ready to uh to be engaging or can afford uh you know spending more. So something has to give. And I I honestly think that if you look to the non-farm payrolls, they have been deteriorating all year. Remember we started out in in Q1 by having 144 200 and something in terms of the the Q uh non-farm payrolls which were the first estimates. Then came August and all of a sudden we had negative numbers. We need to remind ourselves as soon as we get something down to these numbers we see right now, we always fall into a recession late at a later stage. It's not immediately. This is what people don't understand. It's not something that just happens overnight. It's a deterioration. It's a slow grind towards the uh the end. Titanic didn't sink immediately when it hits the they hit the iceberg. It you know it takes a while. The the the water comes in on the lower classes first the the the third grade passengers or third class not third grade third class passengers uh were you know went under first and then the waters you know rose up to the higher levels and we have exactly that situation right now in the US. So I think there is too much focus on the top 10% the the AI businesses and so on. And guess what? That's what we've seen into every recession. We forget about that the real economy in the US and elsewhere are the real consumers. The consumers that are the 10 19 to let's say 70 to 90% of the consumers that is the real world. And right now the numbers for the real consumers are worse than we saw into 1929 into n 2007208 when it comes in terms of food lines stamp you know the participation in stamp programs and so on food stamps all these things is something we simply just you we disregard and we just say yeah yeah but there is going to be liquidity the economy is fine because we have the AI and we have so forth. Guess what? AI is not going to save the world. AI is going to make it worse for the businesses that is actually maybe thinking of expanding something because they'll say maybe we shouldn't hire two people. We can hire one and then make use of AI as well. This is a good thing long term but it's not a good thing short term and especially not in an economy where you have the consumer is completely underwater >> if you look at it in the in the lower lower um income levels. So I think we are I think far from we we are you know panicking too little about the unemployment and we have to understand what they have been planning uh panicking about is inflation numbers which are ridiculous because inflation is at 3%. It's not a problem. It is not a problem. And if we look down beneath and actually look back to the recession periods into 2007 and 8, we would see that when the Fed started to panic in 2008 and started to do double cuts or 50 basis point cuts in January of 2008, inflation was going up and we were ending up at around 5.5% mid of 2008. Was inflation a problem back in 2008 when it came to the end of year? No, it was not. So the problem is the Fed is looking out the rear window right now and not out the front window. That's how I see it. And I have been right so far in terms of the economy deteriorating and the ship is staying afloat, but we are getting closer and closer to the moment where where also the second and first class passengers are going to feel the uh the wet water. >> Cold water. >> Yeah. Oh, very cold water. Absolutely. No hypothermia is instant. Right. So um the what data should we be looking at? That's maybe a better gauge than maybe just the naked unemployment number cuz 4 and a.5% like I'm not personally the number itself doesn't scare me too much here in Germany we have 6.4% 4% we're 2% higher, right? And and nobody really talks about unemployment over here. >> So what are some of the better indicators that maybe highlight the third class passengers um that we you know to see those underlying trends? Um maybe just one suggestion I I saw earlier today was maybe car repossessions and things like that or credit card defaults. Curious what you're thinking, what you're looking at. >> Oh yeah, but that's that's some of the things we can be looking at. I mean we have the we have an economy that is uh clearly um the the the first class passengers don't don't see this and this is the the situation but if you look at the uh the number of people actually living paycheck to paycheck that number is higher than going into 2008 crisis that's 60 to 70% of the US population live paycheck to paycheck if you look at the numbers of people actually on food programs right now it is soaring and is much higher than when we went into it's actually higher now than it was actually coming out of the recessions in 2008 and 9. So the the situation here right now is that the consumer is where people need to look and nobody looks at the way. It seems like everybody's just so focused on what happens in the in corporate US. The real corporate US is the medium-sized sized uh business and the consumer that goes to McDonald's and so on. And if you look to McDonald's also the CEO there has been making some quite strong remarks on this. They can clearly see now that people are simply skipping meals or skipping you know uh you know daily meals because they they simply can't afford it. They can see that and that this is again what we just see that you have the uh let's let's eat let them eat cake situation which is always what we see into into a recession because again the ship goes down with the bottom first with the third class passengers and that's that they they they see it. If you look to the numbers and you say which one should we look at? First of all, we have to understand the unemployment number is dependent on the participation rate. And if the participation rate is declining, which means that people are drawing away from the from the labor market, that means that you can actually have a stable number of people unemployed. And if the participation rate then drops, you will actually see that the unemployment number drops, which is ridiculous because the same number of people are unemployed. So what you're seeing right now is the unemploy the participation rate is declining. That is a very worrying sign and you'll because people are simply feeling that we are not relative to the rel relevant to the market sorry >> and um the the the other part you could look at is the average weeks of unemployment this is a sets a major signal to us saying the number of of weeks that people are unemployed right now in the US on an average level that is 24 weeks going into the financial crisis before the financial crisis it was 16 weeks we are now 15% higher than that and If you look to the whole period, we are now way above what we saw into 2009 and ever since 1940s actually all the way back there. So right now you're seeing again a US where the participation rate is down. You see that people are struggling to make ends meet in terms of the uh food stamp program and the paycheck to paycheck. And we see that uh that simply also the the number of weeks that they are unemployed are longer and and keep rising which it by the way only does into recessions. So that we are not seeing it yet is not the same as the ship will stay afloat. And I think people are misunderstanding that. Oh, but we haven't. It's not sinking. No, it's not. But you know, it's uh it's we are actually sinking, but it's just going very slowly. And that's that's the problem. Maybe I wouldn't say counterargument, but maybe just to challenge you a little bit. The uh the homeland the Department of Homeland Security put out some data just a couple of days ago saying that about more than 2.5 million illegal aliens left the US in 2025. Um ju just as a bit of a counter trend because I thought one of my guests made that comment on this program here this week as well. So I was like, hm. So they they have some of them and I'm not sure what the demographic breakdown is. how many of them were kids, adults, um retire, retired or unemployable um people. Um like do you factor that part in as well just as a bit of a counter trend as well that maybe slows down uh the flood of unemployment? >> I I I don't get that honestly. I don't understand that because if people are leaving the country that is a bad thing for the economy also. I mean it's a bad thing if people are leaving the country. We have to understand that people that lives there they have to buy food. So when they come and work, even if they work and they don't pay tax or whatever, they're there illegally. If people are leaving the country, that means that there will be fewer people to actually go down to McDonald's and pay, you know, whatever it is. That is not a good thing for an economy. An economy can grow by two things. They can grow by the number of people actually rising or the number of the the productivity of each capita actually rising. So these are the two ways you can do it and that's why there are countries like Denmark for instance we need to you know have more pits here otherwise we will see our you know uh GDP levels are actually starting to decline or or we need to have higher productivity levels. The problem is that the the situation that you're sending people out of the country is not necessarily that's something that puts a a a uh that puts a downward pressure on the economy also in the long run. I don't understand that argument honest honestly I I I hear it and it's like but people may have to explain it to me a little better then >> no absolutely no it is an interesting topic because there's so many nuances to it as well and it's not an exact science I would agree uh I would agree with right um coming back to the Fed um real quick uh AI and higher productivity Jerome Powell actually briefly spoke about that as well which I thought was an interesting remark uh because he said the implication is obviously higher uh productivity some of that may be AI high and higher productivity leads to uh economic growth as well. Um how are you factoring that part in because I thought it was an interesting comment. >> Oh but I think AI is going to accelerate and explode the productivity of humankind. I mean over the next uh 10 50 years you know the majority of growth in the world is going to be driven you know in in majority of that by by the uh the advances in technology and from from AI. I'm 100% certain of that. It's a it's it's a no-brainer. Um that that is however not the situation that we you know because in a short time frame you will see that AI can actually be a down have a downward pressure on people if people you know normally you would have two people doing a certain certain job could be white collar it could be whatever blue collar kind of job but you can actually all of a sudden see that this can actually be per performed by one person that is great for the for the for the business owner there at that point that is great because he doesn't need to hire two people in but it's not a good thing for the economy unless that person that does not get employed then finds another job. But the problem right now you're seeing the continuous jobless claims are going up and that requires that the businesses are actually capable and will open more positions. What you see right now is that the the surplus capacity in the business in the in yeah US businesses is at 25% as I said before. So it you know it's not it's a great thing with productivity gains and that is what drives the world forward but in a short time frame and we have to distinguish between short and longer and medium-term that is not necessarily a good thing. So happy that it happens and we we going to I mean who would have liked to ride on horses today and and in carriages and so on. No, we need the we need these uh technology leaps and they're going to help us tremendously but in the short time frame and that is what I think right now is the problem where you have a lot of people in the US that are becoming irrelevant to the market also because they haven't a certain age I mean I'm 50 I mean if it wasn't because I've been working with computers uh you know it uh all for my whole life it probably could have been a bit you know difficult for me but if you all of a sudden are you know sitting there um and you have to do it or you need to you know you can become come more and more irrelevant if you don't you know know how to do that and a lot of people still my age a little older 5 10 years older than me would still need to make an income and and they will become more and more irrelevant to the market that is a problem so I think the we have to distinguish between that there is a technology leap that is going to send this the humankind civilization everything you know skyrocketing to the next you know frontier no doubt about that and we're going to solve a lot of the problems we have today with AI and quantum computing and all these things but that is not the same as the wealth and the um short-term uh thriving of an economy and that I think is what people miss. So yes, there will be productivity gains which actually can be on the expense for a lot of people on the short time frame which is not what the US economy needs at this point. Is it a good thing? Yeah, because like when you are shifting gears in a car, you know, there's a little loss of momentum and then you get into a higher gear and it accelerates. That is what you also will see with an economy. When you have a new technology leap, it's like shifting gears into a new gear and we can accelerate but in the short term there is a momentum loss and that momentum loss can be two, five, 10 years e, you know, easily. We will see it happening but you need to see the capacity and the abilities of the of the labor force actually to to engage with this and to take it in. Young people not a problem but guess what we have 45 years 40 years 45 years 50 years and so on that will also need to earn a living for the next many years and they some of them may be challenged by what we see here. Hence good thing but a bad thing. No, absolutely. I think without AI, my job wouldn't be possible anymore. Like I'd be down to two interviews a week at best. You know, it just wouldn't work. >> Exactly. >> Same for me. I mean, I will also, you know, enhance my productivity with what comes out there. 100%. And it's a good thing in the long term for for everybody. I'm see as I see it. >> Absolutely. Um, one one measure the the the Fed is using nowadays and in order not to slow down momentum too much is nonQE. We talked about this earlier real quick, but I do want to come back to it because I really want to understand like what are the implications of the $40 billion that the Fed is now using to buy uh T bills short ter shortdated Treasury Treasury bonds u meaning like two years and below I think are T- bills. I'm always get confused by the definition of T bills and bonds and all those but um are are is that inflationary because I I looked it up like that money that they're that they're creating or using is being created out of thin air to buy that. Yes, it's only 40 billion, which sounds ridiculous if you think about it. If you only make €2,000 a month net, right? 40 billion is a lot of money, but in the grand scheme of things, it's a drop in the bucket. So, I'm really curious like what you think the implications are in in in general inflation growth. You talked about risk assets earlier. So, I'm curious. I I think um first of all when it comes to inflation and we I I'm sure we're going to touch on gold and silver as well and you have a said you have a a moment there to um to shine also. Uh I I think I think this about inflation there is a difference between a structural long-term inflation and there is short-term inflation. If you look to go if you look to oil right now you'll see that oil has been heading lower for a long time. If you look to the pressures from rental market, you'll see that the pressures from inflation is moving lower. What has shifted dramatically after 2020 and which I probably also underestimated in the beginning is actually the psychological effect of things where people are started actually people that are you know 20 years younger than me at least here uh would probably never even remember that we had something that is was called inflation back in the days. I mean, I hardly can remember it because it, you know, from the 19 mid190s, it just dropped and it dropped, you know, sharply into the early 2000s. Um, the problem is that when it comes back, it's something that people really understand and see because they meet it every day when they go down and buy the grocery, the normal package, they can all of a sudden see that they are not able to buy the same package of groceries that they bought yesterday. That is why it's a big thing for people and it has an a tendency to actually come into the backbone and people remembering it. Why is this important? Because everything about economics is in psychology and especially about the consumer. So now the consumer has felt the pressures of inflation and their real wages haven't come up and compensated. They haven't got back to the same level of real wages as they had in 2020. That is a problem for people and that's why cons inflation is a problem. But people have a tendency to misunder understand what inflation is and what the the price level is. The problem is right now that you have a price level that rose from the uh from in the u after the co uh stimulus came out in 20 to 2022 and people talk about the 3% as a a problem. 3% is not a problem for the economy. there is a mandate around 2% for the for at 2% for the Fed and they try to micromanage the the economy like if they were able to you know turn this up and the the inflation level up and down like that that is actually their the thick hubris that they are as that I also describe in my book that they right now they think they have these omni potent powers that they are demigods that can actually turn inflation up and down. What they completely miss in that process is the the consumer side that we just talked about as well. So as I see it, we are talking too much about inflation which right now with the key drivers of things are being pushed lower by oil and rent and so on which is the a topic for everybody which by the way I think has been the reason why we have seen gold and silver now running higher because it's not supported by what you see especially silver as a uh as you know more of an industrial product uh by by the demand in the industrial sector. So, so that's where I think it's all by you know the talk of the narrative of inflation. Then having said all that, I think there is a secular bottom in inflation because that is very clear when we look to some of the charts which um when we look at in um long-term 10-year yields and so on that we have shifted to a new inflationary regime which is going to take us much higher over the next 10 20 30 years maybe even like what we saw from the 1982 and down to where we are or where we were in 2020. This is how it works. We have cyclical behavior in inflation. So I think longterm we are going to see inflation. The am I afraid about what the money that comes into the the monetary uh easing we have here. I don't think it's going to bring out inflation as much. The problem was in in 2020 was that we saw fiscal stimulus. The fiscal stimulus is the problem because there you actually put them put money in the hand of people and they were sitting back home and by the way there they didn't go to work which meant that the supply chains were breaking down which created inflation which surprised the Fed you know greatly. They did not see a 9.1 to rise in inflation and a lot of other people. It also surprised me that it was this much. But I think this is what people think like inflation. So am I afraid that this 40 billion that comes in now is going to create inflation? No, I'm not. I am more concerned that the Fed is so hawkish and have been so hawkish for such a long time. And it's actually building into the psychology of the consumer, which is what we see right now, which is why the consumer is also struggling. And that pressure that this this disinflationary pressure we have right now is going to come to to um to show the moment we see also that unemployment starts to rise which I think we are we are seeing we are in that process where it goes higher then you're going to see that the deflationary pressures are going to come out. So shortterm I think there's going to be more disinflation. Uh and again we have to remember that um yeah we we can't print money forever and it's going to come to haunt us but again it's about the medium and the short-term uh time frames. >> Absolutely. I think Jerome Powell said most most inflation was actually in tariff related goods as well. So the rest of the economy uh the rest of the services and goods are prices are actually coming down. So sort of confirming what you just said there Henrik. Um I I just quickly just for 30 seconds or so I just want to talk about this chart. Um it's the leading indicators leading economic indicators that the conference board is putting out and we're in massive decline here. It looks like it has accelerated here in 2025. I know you follow those economic indicators quite closely Henrik. Um what should we be bracing for here? >> Yeah. So uh so first of all they I I I found it interesting that just I think it was a year ago they came out and said oh they will call off the inflation uh the recession because actually if you treat these right you will understand that when they start to drop like what they do here this has always brought about a recession. The thing is we have just had more more time this this more room this time around because of the in of the savings rate that people were able to to save during the after the COVID uh stimulus and also if you were a business and you were building up capacity because everybody was doing fine. >> If you were building up capacity there you not so prone to actually go and cut that capacity again which is what we see right now. That's why they keep 25% you know surplus capacity in on average. So businesses are holding back and was expecting the consumer to come back and the consumer is not cable because they have seen the the the rise in prices. So what you see here is simply that the uh the leading indicators are in a decline and uh and if you look to what is called the the real economy they have always the leading indicators always lead the coincident and real economy lower. So people can look at this and say this is not going to be any this is not so bad or they can say well actually every time we have this rollover we get a recession and I uh and I stick to the business cycle and say well the ship can stay afloat for longer than people think but and we can keep pumping the markets up but when it eventually turns because of the consumer then it's going to be a really bad day. It's has it lasted longer than I expected? Yes it has. hot. That doesn't change the fact that the ship has hit the iceberg and there's water coming in all over and it's getting worse. I mean, the situation now in the consumer layer, it's unbelievable that the Fed is not on top of that. >> Yeah. No, I I fully agree. Um, you know, we have to talk gold and silver real quick as well. We got about 3 minutes left, unfortunately, but gold has has moved tremendously higher, uh, 4,300 as we speak. Silver now at $64 an ounce as well. you you hinted at the price moves and maybe some of the motivation behind the moves in in those precious precious metals. Um let's dig a little deeper. What what's your forecast here for the precious metals? >> I think first of all we have to I have to acknowledge that we we saw a breakout that is just taking it higher and uh this happened before I expected it to happen. I did expect earlier that we would see this coming after you see the Fed coming in after you know this uh this next recession that we are potentially heading into. I take that we we definitely see have seen this move. Does that mean we'll just continue here? I don't think so. I actually in the long time frame and I think I said that a year al ago also in in Frankfurt, I think we could see 35,000 on on gold coming into the 2035s or something like that. It's you know in 10 years time. No problem with that because we've seen these expansion of the balance sheet and I you know being told if you're b gold guy or bitcoin guy I will say I'm a gold guy any day because that is still the you know the the foundation of uh of societies and uh and uh yeah of the financial world but I think if you're going to see the dollar still that I is still in the bottoming phase and I think you're going to see that in 26 that is going to rise strongly. If it does that, I think gold and silver will come back down. And the move in silver as we see it right now, it's it's just, you know, a little overdone, so to speak. There's no demand that really justifies what we see here. So, it's like to me it seems like, oh, we have inflation, hence we need to go get to gold. Obviously, obviously there is a change and you can see also in in Asia and elsewhere that people are people and and uh central banks are buying gold and they understand that we're coming to a you know potential monetary reset at some point where gold will be the you know whatever you need what what you need to have not it's not going to be bitcoin and uh and that that time it's really about having your storage is full of it. So I think that is what's happening. Does it mean it cannot come down? No. I think you can see it coming down quite strongly. Uh but I have to say it's uh it's making new alltime highs all the way. So we don't know how far this can go before the strong dollar can take over and bring it somewhat down. So I would be careful in just buying into it right now and just observing what happens into a recessionary uh uh setup and then uh and then after that I'll be the biggest guy buyer of it. But yeah, I uh it moved higher and longer and stronger than I expected. >> Yeah. No, I think we're all super excited about the move, but um I mentioned it earlier. I'm a little worried about the the pace of it all. Right. Uh it's it's so absolutely Henrik, always enjoyed the conversation with you. Really appreciate you joining us here just before Christmas. Um where can we send our audience to follow more of your work. >> Well, it's yeah, go to xenrik or to um Swissblock and also find our uh Swiss blog economy and market uh uh services or my Seabour letter which we also uh publish once a month. So this is where you can go. Fantastic. Awesome. Henrik, thank you so much for joining us. Tremendously appreciate it and can't wait to do this again soon. Uh maybe in person. Let's see where we can run into each other again. So that would be fun. So thank you. >> So no, Henrik, thank you so much. And to everybody else, thank you so much for tuning in. How worried are you about the $40 billion that the Fed is now creating out of thin air? Do you think it'll hit inflation sooner than later? Um what is your time horizon? How are you positioned? Are you storming back into risk assets? Let us know down below. We do want to hear from you because we do read the comments and we try to include them in our conversations. So, thanks so much for tuning in. Happy holidays, merry Christmas, and of course, enjoy your weekend. Take care out there.