Market Outlook: S&P 500 nearing all-time highs with low VIX and improving Fear & Greed readings, suggesting a year-end rally as capital rotates from bonds into stocks.
Fed Rate Cuts: Probability of near-term cuts jumped from ~30% to the mid-80s, with commentary that soaring U.S. interest costs may pressure the Fed toward easing.
Gold & Silver: Gold broke out versus the S&P 500 on a monthly close, while silver showed powerful momentum and a sharply falling gold/silver ratio, indicating a strong precious metals trend.
Gold Miners: XAU outperformance versus the S&P 500 points to potential upside for miners, though GDX/GDXJ remain range-bound and juniors have lagged developers and larger caps.
Central Bank Gold: WGC data shows renewed central bank buying with Poland active in October, providing a floor for prices even as cumulative 2024 purchases trail last year.
BRICS Currency: Extensive scrutiny of a purported gold-backed “Unit” tied to Cardano raises red flags (governance, credibility, missing China participation), with skepticism about its legitimacy and near-term impact.
Risks & Market Plumbing: CFTC COT report delays and a COMEX cooling system issue add uncertainty to positioning in precious metals despite the constructive macro backdrop.
Transcript
Is it finally happening? Are the bricks launching their own goldbacked currency, the unit? Well, we've talked about it on this channel before, and some evidence has surfaced just in the last 24 hours that gives us a little more evidence that things are happening. But we have to take a closer look at it cuz it does feel like a hoax as well. And I'll get into the details here in a few minutes uh during this weekly wrap-up. And with that said, thank you so much for joining us here for a sore financially weekly wrap-up episode. My name is Kai Hoff and I'm the Edj Mining guy over on X and of course your host of this channel. And I've prepared a really, really interesting overview of topics that kept me busy this week that I just quickly want to run through with you to give you an update on what we've been looking at, what are we focused on here at Soore Financially, and and and sprinkle in some of my own opinion here, of course, as well. I think that's why we're doing these. Um let let let's dive right in because we got so much to talk through and uh as always let's take a look at the economic calendar real quick. what what sort of data has been provided to us um as you know we mostly look at US data because it's so market shaping um this week mainly yesterday actually Friday uh the Michigan consumer sentiment uh which was surprisingly more positive than perhaps expected uh the fall numbers October November uh oh sorry September October were more negative and we were questioning whether that would translate into a weaker Christmas shopping season um so far we we haven't really seen a drop in spending question of course though is that just inflationdriven or is there real uh spending increase happening from the consumer uh personal income personal spending here as well. Um but uh mo most importantly the core PCE number um that's the that's one of the gauges that the Fed uses of course to say hey we're on track here with our inflation targets or hey we got to steer against this let's take a closer look and um the the PC number for September of course massively delayed we're already December 6th as I'm recording this so you know it's the late data it's a lagging indicator as we as we like to say here on this program uh it's not really that accurate but it gives us a bit of an idea idea um of of what the trend is and it's the PCE index or sorry the PC yeah the PC price index sorry uh is is flat 02% um inflation from the previous or over over the previous year the index rose by 2.8% 8%. So, we're within that inflation range that that the Fed has been using. It's not really breaking out. It has slowed down. Uh tariff impact has slowed down as well. We've seen more impacts here in June, but that that's pretty much it. Underlying inflation seems to be in check 2%. Um I think inflation that that is fairly normal. Um so, no outlier there that change any Fed rate cut estimates of course. And um one thing I forgot to click on is here. Let's take a quick look at the consumer sentiment. Um, as I mentioned in our in my last update last week, we were looking at a declining consumer sentiment ever since July from 61 point 61.7 uh down to 51 points. So, that's a 10-point decline, but it has rebounded a little bit. We'll have to see what that does to Christmas shopping and to consumer spending over the Christmas season here as well, cuz as we all know, for many retailers, it's the busiest season of the year. and uh once they start reporting here in January uh we will get a clearer picture of course and uh how the economy is doing overall. So that said I think uh that that's the economic indicators we talked PC and consumer sentiment. Uh let's let's take a look at the markets here and uh let's take a look at the S&P 500 first. Uh we're trading near record highs again. Um the the Fed rate cut expectations have propelled the index higher yet again. uh it it has moved almost 300 over 300 points uh recently. We we thought we were looking at a breakdown but it seems like the level of 6,500 points held and now we're looking at near all-time highs in the S&P 500. We are mere points away from it and there's no stopping this trend quite honestly unless we see a breakdown or the Fed maybe surprising us here on Wednesday. There there is no change in trend. Um Kevin Hassel, one of the Fed governors who's the the front runner in in the uh Fed replacement campaign here for for Jerome Powell. He he's of course he he wants to lower rates and we've shared that on our X feed. There there is no declining there. There's no stopping this S&P 500 train of course and the market and let's take a look at the VIX here real quick as well because that's a really good good over uh like indicator like how nervous is the market? Should we be worried? And the market is very very calm. If you look at it, market same as over the summer. We're back down to 15.4 on the VIX. We had a bit of a breakout here. And uh that's when the S&P 500 dropped uh down to 6,500 points, but uh it has recovered since. It has stabilized and there seems to be no more fear going on. The fear and greed index is the other one I do want to share with you. Let me bring that here up on screen um because it does share some interesting indicators with us. So where are we here on the index? Uh we're back almost in neutral territory. The the gauge has shifted back up to 40. Um previous close of course fear week ago is extreme fear. So we we we've come around um ever since you know Fed rate cut expectations uh or have massively increased and we'll look at the percentage here in a second. Um the market momentum primarily we're trading above the the 125day moving average. We tested it. We got close to testing that and uh it didn't break down and that that was really important because if that if that would have broken down then I think extreme fear was warranted or would have been warranted because then we could have seen a a bigger correction perhaps uh down to further lows here more down below 50 to 6,000 maybe 5800 uh point range. So stock price strength uh that's one thing we've always been con concerned about is a few big stocks can skew returns for the market and that has not changed. If the the big the Mac 7 or what what is it now just the big companies here the AI stocks start falling down like the Nvidia has Nvidia has corrected recently a bit um then the the overall stock market is in dire uh under constraint and extreme fear is absolutely warranted um put and call options let's take market volatility sort of what I said about the VIX uh it it has dropped below the 50-day moving average and it is a well-known of course measure here for market sentiment and it seems like we're back into calm territory neutral um is is here the um uh what we call the the the rating that CNN describes here and uh we're back in the greed sector. Stocks are riskier than bonds. Um we have seen bond yields actually drop. So people are selling bonds going back into stocks perhaps for a year-end rally and that's what we're seeing in the bond yields. Let's uh take a look here. Um let's share this. Uh I've shared the VIX here before. Let's take a look at the US 10ear. It is actually rising again. We're still in a band here. We haven't really broken out unless uh you know the the 10ear breaks out above this 4.18 level and maybe rallies back to 4.3. Um this just looks like a temporary correction. But uh in the scheme of things um it is it is a correction. But why is that happening? Well, money is moving back into the stock market. We've seen it. Uh it is happening. So that's that's a factor. Let's uh let's take a look. What else have I prepared here? VIX fear and greed index we talked about. Um that's that's a market moving news. Maybe I'll I showed you the 10-year um the S&P 500 we looked at as well in in comparison. So uh S&P 500 is is moving higher versus the 10-year on the 10-year bond yields. So actually the chart looks identical, but in in this regard it means that people are selling their bonds and moving into stocks. So that's that sentiment. Um I want to share this with you because it's a topic we've discussed here on this channel Simon Hunt and many others is the geopolitical side. India plays a very interesting role in the geopolitical landscape. Yes, they're a part of bricks but they're fairly neutral. I I'd say and I've called them the Trojan horse within the bricks before because the US has a has a has a relationship with India as well. Now you see the photo here. Premier Modi um met with Russia's President Vladim Putin this week. week they had a two-day meeting and there were some interesting some takeaways because they have strengthened their economic and strategic relationship uh as as well really enforcing this multi-polar approach that we're seeing globally not really focused and as I just said it we're not focused just on one partner meaning the US we are working or moving towards a multi-olar world and yes he they're making dealings with Russia here and they will be processing Russian oil So that's something that probably will sting the US is saying, "Hey, we we got sanctions here on Russia in regard to oil and the oil trade." And uh I wouldn't say they're circumventing them, but they're they're they're paving their own way, which is their absolute right. And nobody has to follow what the US is doing. But it's again it's defeating the purpose of course of sanctions. if um the the bricks are keeping Russia alive and while we while we the west impose sanctions on them to to sort of stop stop their economic engine meaning the revenue generator to keep maybe the war in in in the Ukraine going right so that's sort of defeating the purpose they do have a bilateral trade target of hundred billion dollars uh there's some un Russia promised uninterrupted shipments to India for for oil and natural gas or other energy sources as well a deeper cooperation in defense, nuclear and high-tech sectors was discussed and it is just it's really like a strategic signal to the west. It's like hey we're moving into a multipolar world we can do business with whoever we want and I think that's the main message here and we we'll see if we can get a Simon Hunt or so on the program in the coming days to sort of discuss this in more detail. How important is this meeting? Are we blowing this out of proportion or is this an interesting shift that we're seeing or a continuation of a trend that we've been seeing all along? Of course, it is that multipolar push versus western pressure. I think that is that is really key here. So, um something we're monitoring on the geopolitical side because India is of course a big gold buyer, big part of the bricks and um I think it's really important to highlight. So, um going through my notes, I just want to go through it in chronological order. As you know, we discussed the macro to understand the micro and the macro is first uh what what's happening on in the US economy, what's happening in geopol on geopolitics. And now um with everything I've discussed on the market side, we do need to take a look real quick at the Fed rate cut expectations. Um about uh you know a week ago, wondering if there's a chart uh historical, sorry, I'm just trying to find something real quick because I want to show it. It is um not what I was looking for in terms of historical. I apologize but um trying to find like a week ago it was about 10 days ago this was only at 30% meaning the rate cut expectations were only at about 30 35% and they have jumped up. We've we've heard from various Fed governors uh that they do want to push rates lower. Kevin Hassith I me mentioned earlier Chris Waller spoke I shared that video with you last week. So um we're still in that territory. Nothing's changed. 86% although 13 and a half% 13 or almost 14% it's not to be underestimated. Um would be interesting to see what happens if the Fed says like well no we're done cutting rates labor market is fine it's cooling down uh it's not as hot as we expect. I although I I admit I don't expect that to happen like based on what the Fed has been saying and what the Fed governors have been pushing for. I think one one cut is very likely. The market is also pricing in two more cuts for next year now. So that's um something I have one more thing to share on that topic and uh I really enjoy following the Kobes letter here. Um and they shared something I think it was two days ago, three days ago, December 3rd, uh 3 days ago. Shocking stat of the day here. Interest costs on US debt are now equal to 24 cents of every dollar in US government tax revenue. That is crazy. Um that is an insane amount. This comes to as interest expenditures reached 1.24 24 trillion over the last 12 months, an all-time high. Uh we've been talking about it like we've talked about breaching the trillion dollar mark. We're over 1.24 trillion. It is exploding. And of course, that's why the pressure on the US on on the Fed is is so high to to cut interest rates because it is getting bloody expensive for the US to sustain their debt levels. We'll see where that goes. They're supposed to be independent, but uh you cannot ignore 1.2 24 trillion just in interest expenditures alone. So we'll see where that goes. The government needs to lower interest rates rather uh more than anyone of course that uh I think is the obvious one but is the is the way to uh to safety 0% interest rate. Um there is a whole butterfly effect being triggered once that happens. So um I mentioned in the intro uh just over the last 24 hours a certain topic got more momentum that we do need to address. And I've spent quite a bit of time this morning um in in preparation of this weekly wrap-up uh looking at this. Um it is the the topic that the unit is being brought back to our attention. Of course, we've had this topic on our channel in the past. It is supposed to be a goldbacked uh currency uh to be issued. Um lot lot of reports floated and uh I've really struggled to even bring this topic up because I'm still trying to verify it. uh Vince Lansancy, Pep Escobar, and many others brought that topic back up uh back up just on Zero Hedge. And maybe I'll share these articles real quick. Um the the first one was here. The um let me just uh put this on the screen as well. Apologies. There we go. The first one is the Brickbacks Goldbacked unit has been successfully launched u by by Goldfix. That's Vince Lansancy. And we we've all been talking about it. uh I think you can all read this and uh he he put up a video on uh up on it where he he runs through the reasoning and what's happening behind it followed by only this morning actually only about six hours ago um Pepe Escobar uh put something up as well about the UNI project and uh lays out his theory about it and what what is happening behind it as well and uh I I've looked at it so as I said I I've I've really looked into this because it's an interesting topic because it could really change um the the global monetary system. It's it is a massive development and I I found a few links and project websites that has that have me honestly worried. I'm not saying it's a scam. I think it's in it might be in its infancy, but I don't fully understand it either, which has me worried and that's where my my my concern comes from. So there there's a website which Vince Lansancy also in his video mentions is like we leverage gold and bricks plus currencies into a unit ecosystem. Okay, fair enough. I think that's what we've been talking about. Um and also uh just there there is an international research institute for advanced systems and and I'm mixing things up here because it's both um because the unit the website I got a I got ahead of myself here with this website is relying on this here and uh the international research institute for advanced systems. So who who who are they? Um it is actually a Russianbacked uh research institute. The member states are Bulgaria, Hungary, Mongolia, Cuba, and Russia. Okay, great. Um, first question mark. Does Russia have enough gold? I know they've been buying silver a lot, and we all know that, but uh, have they do they have enough gold? And based on the member states, I'm missing China, quite honestly. Like, okay. Um, they're talking about it. Uh, let me share this here. Sorry. Um, we got uh, as I said, uh, we got Bulgaria, Hungary, Mongolia, Cuba, and Russia here. Uh I'm I'm missing China. Uh it it they got the gold. Somebody needs to deliver that gold into the system. And I think without China here, it'll be very very difficult um to to do this. Again, question mark. I still topic I need to find an answer for. I launches uh announces the launch of blockchain based unit token on Cardano. Okay, fair. Fair enough. We're launching a token that's all digital on Cardano, which is a blockchain network. Um okay, fair enough. Um interesting part of course diversified basket of international currencies are supposed to make up 60% and then gold 40%. Combining the stability of traditional assets with the transparency of blockchain technology. I think we've talked about this with Andy Sheckman on the program. Right. So the unit token perfect. All right. Tradable, transparent, verifiable, uh solid. I I don't know enough about Cardano to say whether this is legit or not or like legit it is legitimate whether it's good to to to be able to do this. I don't know enough about it. And that's sort of where the the news ends, the news announcement ends. Um, we don't get a lot more information. Right. So, let's let's jump over um let's jump over to the unit website again. And I have a lot of question marks about this. This is what gives me the biggest headache quite honestly because it it starts with the these member countries. um look looking at them like we just saw IUS is uh it's really only Russia here from from the bricks plus members okay that that are part of this uh yes early days I get it but uh it it feels like there's a missing there's something missing in between so scrolling down here and I'm trying to figure out who who's behind this right like okay who who's launching the unit and it feels like it's a group maybe some Russians might be um it it it feels very unbalanced. So Jilu or Jill Luauo uh he's an AI CEO. So he he's an AI. He's not a real person. Okay. And after many considerations, we concurred that unit needs a totally new form of representation. AI strengthens our collective consciousness with perfect memory, thoroughess, and depth. Who's programmed this AI? Like, okay, interesting. Red flag. Not saying it's a scam. Keep that in mind. I'm just asking questions. Uh we got somebody else here. Um, not I haven't really looked into his biography. Fine. Okay. And then here's the next one. Uh, and there's typos on this website as well, which which are quite irritating. Um, I've been trying to find this one here. This is Eurosex doesn't exist. It does not exist. Okay. This exists. Eurian Economic Union exists. Eurosex doesn't. It does not. There is a Urexus researchers in motion by the European Union. Okay, great. Um, but I've asked Google about it. Let's share this here real quick. So, Urosex Euran Eurasian Economic Union. Like, who is this? UsX isn't isn't the official name, but likely refers to Eurasian Economic Union. Okay, fair enough. Like, where does this come from? So, a lot of little red flags. I'm just a little factchecking. I'm quite pragmatic, and again, doesn't mean that this is completely off base, but I did want to share one more thing um or two more things actually on this one. And uh there's spelling mistakes on the website, which reminds me of the emails you get from the Nigerian prince who wants to give you a million dollars, right? But only you got to send them €10,000 first or something like that. It's like the launch of launch tracking traing. Like I'm not trying to make fun of that. I'm just trying to understand what is happening. Like really trying to understand when I start reading this and I stumble over like uh spelling mistakes, it leaves a bad taste in my mouth. Okay. Um it doesn't scream professionalism. Then um they're calling it a pumpkin batch. contains the first 100 units ghostly minted what whatever ghostly minted is um on October 31st 2025. Okay, that is actually two weeks before this announcement before the uh uh IRA announcement uh about two weeks 10 days before this announcement. Right. So, okay, another inconsistency that I'm trying to make sense of. And um so they've launched a basket. This is all this all looks fine. Like I haven't done the math on any of this and conversions and all of that. Absolutely. Um there's a bricks currencies in there. You got the Brazilian U Royale, the Chinese Rimbeimi, you got the Indian ruple, the ruble, and of course a South African rand. So pumpkin batch has been minted. It it contains five fiat currencies and 40 grams of gold. Okay, so that's an ounce of gold, right? A little over an ounce of gold. So what I'm trying to understand and like people have been and maybe I'm confusing this is that the intention is to use first funding proceeds to mint our Swiss hub in our Swiss hub the first real primo mill batch of a,000 units. So, we're not doing a token. We're actually doing physical coins. Again, a lot of question marks. I'm not trying to say that this is just I'll need to get Andy Sheckchman and maybe I'm I'm trying to get Vince Lansancy on the program this week as well to to see what this really means. Um I'm thoroughly confused by it quite honestly. Is it a hoax? I have no idea, but it does feel like there are some other interests at play and I cannot shake that feeling. Um so, I'm really curious. I I'll definitely follow this very very closely that but that's my opinion. So don't shoot the messenger. Uh I'm just trying to understand what is actually going on. So um that's that's on that part. Uh definitely want to take a closer look at some of the other news we got on the gold side. And uh I bet you the conspiracy theorists are going to be absolutely furious cuz and uh here we go. Let me share this. Uh the the CFTC has announced that they're delaying the reporting of the COOT reports, the commitment of trader reports and uh people are furious with this because of the government shutdown the uh the authorities claim or due to a lapse of in federal appropriations following the return to normal operations. The CFTC will resume publication of the commitments of trader reports in chron chronological order. Um that said, we're still waiting on some reports here. Uh so the report from October 28th is go supposed to come out yet was supposed to come out yesterday. I didn't check whether that's true but we're lagging behind by over six weeks and as we all know a lot of traders and uh market participants in the precious metal space rely on these reports to position for the week ahead and say hey this is what the big players are doing or they're long short they're reducing their positions in either direction. How do we position ourselves? So, this is causing quite a bit of ruckus. And we don't even need to talk about the cooling system failure at the ComX in Chicago, do we? Um, what was that all about? Um, that's an interesting topic all by itself. Again, opens doors is wide. Um, what what is going on there? Right. So, um, central bank buying has also picked up. I've just quickly prepared something here from the World Gold Council. I really like using their data. Um, so central bank buying has picked up. They by the way they published that report December 2nd and you can just go to gold or and find the full report yourself. Uh central bank buying has picked up in recent months here for a month of October it has picked up. So year-to- date reported net purchases through October total 254 tons but and that's what a lot of reports don't report. Um they all jump on like a central banks have been buying very aggressively but we're actually lagging behind previous years if you look at this chart by the world gold council and not not by much. We're not lagging 2024 by much, but uh at this time of year um gold purchased by central banks were much higher. Um so okay, no concern or anything, but it doesn't I I noticed that it's not being reported or that chart is being ignored by uh by the m by the media in general like not just major all media. Um then National Bank of Poland re-entered the market in October having paused its buying since May. But uh they just announced that they bought another 16 tons um in October. So that's that's fun to see. And National Bank of Poland extends year-to- date buying in October. They were the biggest buyer of course in October. And one thing like I can't find any more data on it is as Germany apparently is still a seller of gold. Drives me nuts. I don't get it. Um but everybody else you you can see it here. So that's that's supporting and giving us a floor on the gold price. And we haven't really looked at the gold price yet, have we? Here, let's let's bring this up. Uh let's take a look at the year to date. Uh look at look at this gold chart. Uh we've really nicely recovered. We bounced off uh support here at 3920 or 3930 roughly at 39.25 and moved up nicely back again here to higher levels 4,200. Um we discussed this last week, but we saw an acceleration in this in this upwards move when the Fed mentions, hey, um or the Fed governors talked about cutting rates here in December and the the Fed rate cut chances jump from 30% 35% to now 86 87%. Um let's take a look at silver real quick as well while I have this up. An absolute power move here. And we'll I'll explain in a few short seconds here what Michael Oliver told me this week uh about what what what he has seen and why this momentum is so strong. Uh gold silver ratio has dropped massively as you as you can see we're at 104.7 not too long ago meaning in April as I said not too long ago about 6 and a half months ago to down now 71. Uh the trend of course continues to go lower. Uh let's take a look at fiveyear. So where's the next level here? What what should we be looking at? So here seems like there's a bit of a level. Again, I'm not a technical analyst, right? I'm just looking at some chart notation, chart marks markings here, but uh 64 is very likely. So that's uh that's an interesting move. Um let's let's take a look at what Michael Oliver has uh shared with us this week. Uh go go check out his um uh his commentary in my interview with him earlier this week. Here. There you go. And uh how do I get this bigger? There we go. It's a little bigger. That's why um I brought this up so you can actually read it. Uh so uh major asset shift class has just begun. So he he his argument is well the the asset move has only just started meaning uh we have broken out gold has broken out versus the S&P 500 on a monthly close. So this is a fairly new development he mentioned on the program. uh it only happened at the end of last week when the month of November ended and gold has broken out on a monthly basis against the S&P 500. That that signals a massive trend shift and we've seen that now in silver. Let me show you the silver chart and uh we'll get to the miners in a second, but we've seen the same happen here in the in in the silver space here in November. Uh we have seen that breakout now, hence that massive spike in momentum over the last few days in the silver space. I thought yesterday momentum was so strong it took us to $59.30 in silver. We might actually almost touch $60 before the end of the week, but uh maybe I was getting a little bit ahead of myself because the silver price was up three and a half almost 4% intraday yesterday on Friday the December December 5th. And I think that's just a little too fast. Can we get this? You know, I like the trend. I like the direction, but the the momentum the the velocity is crazy. It's it's uh it's insane. So, one other thing I've noticed, and maybe I'll show you something else. Let's stay on here real quick before I I show you something else that I'm I'm looking at is the the XAU is a gold index um and has broken out versus uh the S&P 500 now as well. So, the miners uh will see another uptick as well if this trend continues, of course. But uh let's get rid of this. Let's add let's add the screen again because I do want to show this here real quick. What I do want to show is just here GDX GDXJ year to date. So we we we're approaching all-time high levels uh here or high levels. That's the sorry let's use the GDX um see how far back we can go. Of course we're still the GDX is at alltime high levels but we have been correcting here recently and let's take a look at the last month three months. So we we have rebounded but it hasn't really broken out or anything and it hasn't really trailed uh gold and silver uh in particular GDXJ just as well. It is it is in a sideways phase and stocks haven't really moved and looking at my portfolio the juniors in particular the explorers haven't really participated in what is going on. It's more the developers the larger cap companies of course but not the the juniors. So, um, lots of information. I don't want to run too long here, but, uh, a lot of interesting developments that we're that we're monitoring here, uh, at Zor financially. Um, please go check out our our interviews with a Michael Oliver. Um, Dave Colum, we're publishing tomorrow as well. I really enjoyed my chat with him. Make sure to go check that out on the channel. And then next week, we've got a great lineup joining us as well. We got the Fed meeting looming on Wednesday. So, exciting week ahead just before Christmas. I hope everybody's having a wonderful time. Enjoy the the holiday season. Merry Christmas if you don't watch any of my other videos in the next few weeks. But much appreciate you watching. 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Is The New GOLD Currency A Hoax?
Summary
Transcript
Is it finally happening? Are the bricks launching their own goldbacked currency, the unit? Well, we've talked about it on this channel before, and some evidence has surfaced just in the last 24 hours that gives us a little more evidence that things are happening. But we have to take a closer look at it cuz it does feel like a hoax as well. And I'll get into the details here in a few minutes uh during this weekly wrap-up. And with that said, thank you so much for joining us here for a sore financially weekly wrap-up episode. My name is Kai Hoff and I'm the Edj Mining guy over on X and of course your host of this channel. And I've prepared a really, really interesting overview of topics that kept me busy this week that I just quickly want to run through with you to give you an update on what we've been looking at, what are we focused on here at Soore Financially, and and and sprinkle in some of my own opinion here, of course, as well. I think that's why we're doing these. Um let let let's dive right in because we got so much to talk through and uh as always let's take a look at the economic calendar real quick. what what sort of data has been provided to us um as you know we mostly look at US data because it's so market shaping um this week mainly yesterday actually Friday uh the Michigan consumer sentiment uh which was surprisingly more positive than perhaps expected uh the fall numbers October November uh oh sorry September October were more negative and we were questioning whether that would translate into a weaker Christmas shopping season um so far we we haven't really seen a drop in spending question of course though is that just inflationdriven or is there real uh spending increase happening from the consumer uh personal income personal spending here as well. Um but uh mo most importantly the core PCE number um that's the that's one of the gauges that the Fed uses of course to say hey we're on track here with our inflation targets or hey we got to steer against this let's take a closer look and um the the PC number for September of course massively delayed we're already December 6th as I'm recording this so you know it's the late data it's a lagging indicator as we as we like to say here on this program uh it's not really that accurate but it gives us a bit of an idea idea um of of what the trend is and it's the PCE index or sorry the PC yeah the PC price index sorry uh is is flat 02% um inflation from the previous or over over the previous year the index rose by 2.8% 8%. So, we're within that inflation range that that the Fed has been using. It's not really breaking out. It has slowed down. Uh tariff impact has slowed down as well. We've seen more impacts here in June, but that that's pretty much it. Underlying inflation seems to be in check 2%. Um I think inflation that that is fairly normal. Um so, no outlier there that change any Fed rate cut estimates of course. And um one thing I forgot to click on is here. Let's take a quick look at the consumer sentiment. Um, as I mentioned in our in my last update last week, we were looking at a declining consumer sentiment ever since July from 61 point 61.7 uh down to 51 points. So, that's a 10-point decline, but it has rebounded a little bit. We'll have to see what that does to Christmas shopping and to consumer spending over the Christmas season here as well, cuz as we all know, for many retailers, it's the busiest season of the year. and uh once they start reporting here in January uh we will get a clearer picture of course and uh how the economy is doing overall. So that said I think uh that that's the economic indicators we talked PC and consumer sentiment. Uh let's let's take a look at the markets here and uh let's take a look at the S&P 500 first. Uh we're trading near record highs again. Um the the Fed rate cut expectations have propelled the index higher yet again. uh it it has moved almost 300 over 300 points uh recently. We we thought we were looking at a breakdown but it seems like the level of 6,500 points held and now we're looking at near all-time highs in the S&P 500. We are mere points away from it and there's no stopping this trend quite honestly unless we see a breakdown or the Fed maybe surprising us here on Wednesday. There there is no change in trend. Um Kevin Hassel, one of the Fed governors who's the the front runner in in the uh Fed replacement campaign here for for Jerome Powell. He he's of course he he wants to lower rates and we've shared that on our X feed. There there is no declining there. There's no stopping this S&P 500 train of course and the market and let's take a look at the VIX here real quick as well because that's a really good good over uh like indicator like how nervous is the market? Should we be worried? And the market is very very calm. If you look at it, market same as over the summer. We're back down to 15.4 on the VIX. We had a bit of a breakout here. And uh that's when the S&P 500 dropped uh down to 6,500 points, but uh it has recovered since. It has stabilized and there seems to be no more fear going on. The fear and greed index is the other one I do want to share with you. Let me bring that here up on screen um because it does share some interesting indicators with us. So where are we here on the index? Uh we're back almost in neutral territory. The the gauge has shifted back up to 40. Um previous close of course fear week ago is extreme fear. So we we we've come around um ever since you know Fed rate cut expectations uh or have massively increased and we'll look at the percentage here in a second. Um the market momentum primarily we're trading above the the 125day moving average. We tested it. We got close to testing that and uh it didn't break down and that that was really important because if that if that would have broken down then I think extreme fear was warranted or would have been warranted because then we could have seen a a bigger correction perhaps uh down to further lows here more down below 50 to 6,000 maybe 5800 uh point range. So stock price strength uh that's one thing we've always been con concerned about is a few big stocks can skew returns for the market and that has not changed. If the the big the Mac 7 or what what is it now just the big companies here the AI stocks start falling down like the Nvidia has Nvidia has corrected recently a bit um then the the overall stock market is in dire uh under constraint and extreme fear is absolutely warranted um put and call options let's take market volatility sort of what I said about the VIX uh it it has dropped below the 50-day moving average and it is a well-known of course measure here for market sentiment and it seems like we're back into calm territory neutral um is is here the um uh what we call the the the rating that CNN describes here and uh we're back in the greed sector. Stocks are riskier than bonds. Um we have seen bond yields actually drop. So people are selling bonds going back into stocks perhaps for a year-end rally and that's what we're seeing in the bond yields. Let's uh take a look here. Um let's share this. Uh I've shared the VIX here before. Let's take a look at the US 10ear. It is actually rising again. We're still in a band here. We haven't really broken out unless uh you know the the 10ear breaks out above this 4.18 level and maybe rallies back to 4.3. Um this just looks like a temporary correction. But uh in the scheme of things um it is it is a correction. But why is that happening? Well, money is moving back into the stock market. We've seen it. Uh it is happening. So that's that's a factor. Let's uh let's take a look. What else have I prepared here? VIX fear and greed index we talked about. Um that's that's a market moving news. Maybe I'll I showed you the 10-year um the S&P 500 we looked at as well in in comparison. So uh S&P 500 is is moving higher versus the 10-year on the 10-year bond yields. So actually the chart looks identical, but in in this regard it means that people are selling their bonds and moving into stocks. So that's that sentiment. Um I want to share this with you because it's a topic we've discussed here on this channel Simon Hunt and many others is the geopolitical side. India plays a very interesting role in the geopolitical landscape. Yes, they're a part of bricks but they're fairly neutral. I I'd say and I've called them the Trojan horse within the bricks before because the US has a has a has a relationship with India as well. Now you see the photo here. Premier Modi um met with Russia's President Vladim Putin this week. week they had a two-day meeting and there were some interesting some takeaways because they have strengthened their economic and strategic relationship uh as as well really enforcing this multi-polar approach that we're seeing globally not really focused and as I just said it we're not focused just on one partner meaning the US we are working or moving towards a multi-olar world and yes he they're making dealings with Russia here and they will be processing Russian oil So that's something that probably will sting the US is saying, "Hey, we we got sanctions here on Russia in regard to oil and the oil trade." And uh I wouldn't say they're circumventing them, but they're they're they're paving their own way, which is their absolute right. And nobody has to follow what the US is doing. But it's again it's defeating the purpose of course of sanctions. if um the the bricks are keeping Russia alive and while we while we the west impose sanctions on them to to sort of stop stop their economic engine meaning the revenue generator to keep maybe the war in in in the Ukraine going right so that's sort of defeating the purpose they do have a bilateral trade target of hundred billion dollars uh there's some un Russia promised uninterrupted shipments to India for for oil and natural gas or other energy sources as well a deeper cooperation in defense, nuclear and high-tech sectors was discussed and it is just it's really like a strategic signal to the west. It's like hey we're moving into a multipolar world we can do business with whoever we want and I think that's the main message here and we we'll see if we can get a Simon Hunt or so on the program in the coming days to sort of discuss this in more detail. How important is this meeting? Are we blowing this out of proportion or is this an interesting shift that we're seeing or a continuation of a trend that we've been seeing all along? Of course, it is that multipolar push versus western pressure. I think that is that is really key here. So, um something we're monitoring on the geopolitical side because India is of course a big gold buyer, big part of the bricks and um I think it's really important to highlight. So, um going through my notes, I just want to go through it in chronological order. As you know, we discussed the macro to understand the micro and the macro is first uh what what's happening on in the US economy, what's happening in geopol on geopolitics. And now um with everything I've discussed on the market side, we do need to take a look real quick at the Fed rate cut expectations. Um about uh you know a week ago, wondering if there's a chart uh historical, sorry, I'm just trying to find something real quick because I want to show it. It is um not what I was looking for in terms of historical. I apologize but um trying to find like a week ago it was about 10 days ago this was only at 30% meaning the rate cut expectations were only at about 30 35% and they have jumped up. We've we've heard from various Fed governors uh that they do want to push rates lower. Kevin Hassith I me mentioned earlier Chris Waller spoke I shared that video with you last week. So um we're still in that territory. Nothing's changed. 86% although 13 and a half% 13 or almost 14% it's not to be underestimated. Um would be interesting to see what happens if the Fed says like well no we're done cutting rates labor market is fine it's cooling down uh it's not as hot as we expect. I although I I admit I don't expect that to happen like based on what the Fed has been saying and what the Fed governors have been pushing for. I think one one cut is very likely. The market is also pricing in two more cuts for next year now. So that's um something I have one more thing to share on that topic and uh I really enjoy following the Kobes letter here. Um and they shared something I think it was two days ago, three days ago, December 3rd, uh 3 days ago. Shocking stat of the day here. Interest costs on US debt are now equal to 24 cents of every dollar in US government tax revenue. That is crazy. Um that is an insane amount. This comes to as interest expenditures reached 1.24 24 trillion over the last 12 months, an all-time high. Uh we've been talking about it like we've talked about breaching the trillion dollar mark. We're over 1.24 trillion. It is exploding. And of course, that's why the pressure on the US on on the Fed is is so high to to cut interest rates because it is getting bloody expensive for the US to sustain their debt levels. We'll see where that goes. They're supposed to be independent, but uh you cannot ignore 1.2 24 trillion just in interest expenditures alone. So we'll see where that goes. The government needs to lower interest rates rather uh more than anyone of course that uh I think is the obvious one but is the is the way to uh to safety 0% interest rate. Um there is a whole butterfly effect being triggered once that happens. So um I mentioned in the intro uh just over the last 24 hours a certain topic got more momentum that we do need to address. And I've spent quite a bit of time this morning um in in preparation of this weekly wrap-up uh looking at this. Um it is the the topic that the unit is being brought back to our attention. Of course, we've had this topic on our channel in the past. It is supposed to be a goldbacked uh currency uh to be issued. Um lot lot of reports floated and uh I've really struggled to even bring this topic up because I'm still trying to verify it. uh Vince Lansancy, Pep Escobar, and many others brought that topic back up uh back up just on Zero Hedge. And maybe I'll share these articles real quick. Um the the first one was here. The um let me just uh put this on the screen as well. Apologies. There we go. The first one is the Brickbacks Goldbacked unit has been successfully launched u by by Goldfix. That's Vince Lansancy. And we we've all been talking about it. uh I think you can all read this and uh he he put up a video on uh up on it where he he runs through the reasoning and what's happening behind it followed by only this morning actually only about six hours ago um Pepe Escobar uh put something up as well about the UNI project and uh lays out his theory about it and what what is happening behind it as well and uh I I've looked at it so as I said I I've I've really looked into this because it's an interesting topic because it could really change um the the global monetary system. It's it is a massive development and I I found a few links and project websites that has that have me honestly worried. I'm not saying it's a scam. I think it's in it might be in its infancy, but I don't fully understand it either, which has me worried and that's where my my my concern comes from. So there there's a website which Vince Lansancy also in his video mentions is like we leverage gold and bricks plus currencies into a unit ecosystem. Okay, fair enough. I think that's what we've been talking about. Um and also uh just there there is an international research institute for advanced systems and and I'm mixing things up here because it's both um because the unit the website I got a I got ahead of myself here with this website is relying on this here and uh the international research institute for advanced systems. So who who who are they? Um it is actually a Russianbacked uh research institute. The member states are Bulgaria, Hungary, Mongolia, Cuba, and Russia. Okay, great. Um, first question mark. Does Russia have enough gold? I know they've been buying silver a lot, and we all know that, but uh, have they do they have enough gold? And based on the member states, I'm missing China, quite honestly. Like, okay. Um, they're talking about it. Uh, let me share this here. Sorry. Um, we got uh, as I said, uh, we got Bulgaria, Hungary, Mongolia, Cuba, and Russia here. Uh I'm I'm missing China. Uh it it they got the gold. Somebody needs to deliver that gold into the system. And I think without China here, it'll be very very difficult um to to do this. Again, question mark. I still topic I need to find an answer for. I launches uh announces the launch of blockchain based unit token on Cardano. Okay, fair. Fair enough. We're launching a token that's all digital on Cardano, which is a blockchain network. Um okay, fair enough. Um interesting part of course diversified basket of international currencies are supposed to make up 60% and then gold 40%. Combining the stability of traditional assets with the transparency of blockchain technology. I think we've talked about this with Andy Sheckman on the program. Right. So the unit token perfect. All right. Tradable, transparent, verifiable, uh solid. I I don't know enough about Cardano to say whether this is legit or not or like legit it is legitimate whether it's good to to to be able to do this. I don't know enough about it. And that's sort of where the the news ends, the news announcement ends. Um, we don't get a lot more information. Right. So, let's let's jump over um let's jump over to the unit website again. And I have a lot of question marks about this. This is what gives me the biggest headache quite honestly because it it starts with the these member countries. um look looking at them like we just saw IUS is uh it's really only Russia here from from the bricks plus members okay that that are part of this uh yes early days I get it but uh it it feels like there's a missing there's something missing in between so scrolling down here and I'm trying to figure out who who's behind this right like okay who who's launching the unit and it feels like it's a group maybe some Russians might be um it it it feels very unbalanced. So Jilu or Jill Luauo uh he's an AI CEO. So he he's an AI. He's not a real person. Okay. And after many considerations, we concurred that unit needs a totally new form of representation. AI strengthens our collective consciousness with perfect memory, thoroughess, and depth. Who's programmed this AI? Like, okay, interesting. Red flag. Not saying it's a scam. Keep that in mind. I'm just asking questions. Uh we got somebody else here. Um, not I haven't really looked into his biography. Fine. Okay. And then here's the next one. Uh, and there's typos on this website as well, which which are quite irritating. Um, I've been trying to find this one here. This is Eurosex doesn't exist. It does not exist. Okay. This exists. Eurian Economic Union exists. Eurosex doesn't. It does not. There is a Urexus researchers in motion by the European Union. Okay, great. Um, but I've asked Google about it. Let's share this here real quick. So, Urosex Euran Eurasian Economic Union. Like, who is this? UsX isn't isn't the official name, but likely refers to Eurasian Economic Union. Okay, fair enough. Like, where does this come from? So, a lot of little red flags. I'm just a little factchecking. I'm quite pragmatic, and again, doesn't mean that this is completely off base, but I did want to share one more thing um or two more things actually on this one. And uh there's spelling mistakes on the website, which reminds me of the emails you get from the Nigerian prince who wants to give you a million dollars, right? But only you got to send them €10,000 first or something like that. It's like the launch of launch tracking traing. Like I'm not trying to make fun of that. I'm just trying to understand what is happening. Like really trying to understand when I start reading this and I stumble over like uh spelling mistakes, it leaves a bad taste in my mouth. Okay. Um it doesn't scream professionalism. Then um they're calling it a pumpkin batch. contains the first 100 units ghostly minted what whatever ghostly minted is um on October 31st 2025. Okay, that is actually two weeks before this announcement before the uh uh IRA announcement uh about two weeks 10 days before this announcement. Right. So, okay, another inconsistency that I'm trying to make sense of. And um so they've launched a basket. This is all this all looks fine. Like I haven't done the math on any of this and conversions and all of that. Absolutely. Um there's a bricks currencies in there. You got the Brazilian U Royale, the Chinese Rimbeimi, you got the Indian ruple, the ruble, and of course a South African rand. So pumpkin batch has been minted. It it contains five fiat currencies and 40 grams of gold. Okay, so that's an ounce of gold, right? A little over an ounce of gold. So what I'm trying to understand and like people have been and maybe I'm confusing this is that the intention is to use first funding proceeds to mint our Swiss hub in our Swiss hub the first real primo mill batch of a,000 units. So, we're not doing a token. We're actually doing physical coins. Again, a lot of question marks. I'm not trying to say that this is just I'll need to get Andy Sheckchman and maybe I'm I'm trying to get Vince Lansancy on the program this week as well to to see what this really means. Um I'm thoroughly confused by it quite honestly. Is it a hoax? I have no idea, but it does feel like there are some other interests at play and I cannot shake that feeling. Um so, I'm really curious. I I'll definitely follow this very very closely that but that's my opinion. So don't shoot the messenger. Uh I'm just trying to understand what is actually going on. So um that's that's on that part. Uh definitely want to take a closer look at some of the other news we got on the gold side. And uh I bet you the conspiracy theorists are going to be absolutely furious cuz and uh here we go. Let me share this. Uh the the CFTC has announced that they're delaying the reporting of the COOT reports, the commitment of trader reports and uh people are furious with this because of the government shutdown the uh the authorities claim or due to a lapse of in federal appropriations following the return to normal operations. The CFTC will resume publication of the commitments of trader reports in chron chronological order. Um that said, we're still waiting on some reports here. Uh so the report from October 28th is go supposed to come out yet was supposed to come out yesterday. I didn't check whether that's true but we're lagging behind by over six weeks and as we all know a lot of traders and uh market participants in the precious metal space rely on these reports to position for the week ahead and say hey this is what the big players are doing or they're long short they're reducing their positions in either direction. How do we position ourselves? So, this is causing quite a bit of ruckus. And we don't even need to talk about the cooling system failure at the ComX in Chicago, do we? Um, what was that all about? Um, that's an interesting topic all by itself. Again, opens doors is wide. Um, what what is going on there? Right. So, um, central bank buying has also picked up. I've just quickly prepared something here from the World Gold Council. I really like using their data. Um, so central bank buying has picked up. They by the way they published that report December 2nd and you can just go to gold or and find the full report yourself. Uh central bank buying has picked up in recent months here for a month of October it has picked up. So year-to- date reported net purchases through October total 254 tons but and that's what a lot of reports don't report. Um they all jump on like a central banks have been buying very aggressively but we're actually lagging behind previous years if you look at this chart by the world gold council and not not by much. We're not lagging 2024 by much, but uh at this time of year um gold purchased by central banks were much higher. Um so okay, no concern or anything, but it doesn't I I noticed that it's not being reported or that chart is being ignored by uh by the m by the media in general like not just major all media. Um then National Bank of Poland re-entered the market in October having paused its buying since May. But uh they just announced that they bought another 16 tons um in October. So that's that's fun to see. And National Bank of Poland extends year-to- date buying in October. They were the biggest buyer of course in October. And one thing like I can't find any more data on it is as Germany apparently is still a seller of gold. Drives me nuts. I don't get it. Um but everybody else you you can see it here. So that's that's supporting and giving us a floor on the gold price. And we haven't really looked at the gold price yet, have we? Here, let's let's bring this up. Uh let's take a look at the year to date. Uh look at look at this gold chart. Uh we've really nicely recovered. We bounced off uh support here at 3920 or 3930 roughly at 39.25 and moved up nicely back again here to higher levels 4,200. Um we discussed this last week, but we saw an acceleration in this in this upwards move when the Fed mentions, hey, um or the Fed governors talked about cutting rates here in December and the the Fed rate cut chances jump from 30% 35% to now 86 87%. Um let's take a look at silver real quick as well while I have this up. An absolute power move here. And we'll I'll explain in a few short seconds here what Michael Oliver told me this week uh about what what what he has seen and why this momentum is so strong. Uh gold silver ratio has dropped massively as you as you can see we're at 104.7 not too long ago meaning in April as I said not too long ago about 6 and a half months ago to down now 71. Uh the trend of course continues to go lower. Uh let's take a look at fiveyear. So where's the next level here? What what should we be looking at? So here seems like there's a bit of a level. Again, I'm not a technical analyst, right? I'm just looking at some chart notation, chart marks markings here, but uh 64 is very likely. So that's uh that's an interesting move. Um let's let's take a look at what Michael Oliver has uh shared with us this week. Uh go go check out his um uh his commentary in my interview with him earlier this week. Here. There you go. And uh how do I get this bigger? There we go. It's a little bigger. That's why um I brought this up so you can actually read it. Uh so uh major asset shift class has just begun. So he he his argument is well the the asset move has only just started meaning uh we have broken out gold has broken out versus the S&P 500 on a monthly close. So this is a fairly new development he mentioned on the program. uh it only happened at the end of last week when the month of November ended and gold has broken out on a monthly basis against the S&P 500. That that signals a massive trend shift and we've seen that now in silver. Let me show you the silver chart and uh we'll get to the miners in a second, but we've seen the same happen here in the in in the silver space here in November. Uh we have seen that breakout now, hence that massive spike in momentum over the last few days in the silver space. I thought yesterday momentum was so strong it took us to $59.30 in silver. We might actually almost touch $60 before the end of the week, but uh maybe I was getting a little bit ahead of myself because the silver price was up three and a half almost 4% intraday yesterday on Friday the December December 5th. And I think that's just a little too fast. Can we get this? You know, I like the trend. I like the direction, but the the momentum the the velocity is crazy. It's it's uh it's insane. So, one other thing I've noticed, and maybe I'll show you something else. Let's stay on here real quick before I I show you something else that I'm I'm looking at is the the XAU is a gold index um and has broken out versus uh the S&P 500 now as well. So, the miners uh will see another uptick as well if this trend continues, of course. But uh let's get rid of this. Let's add let's add the screen again because I do want to show this here real quick. What I do want to show is just here GDX GDXJ year to date. So we we we're approaching all-time high levels uh here or high levels. That's the sorry let's use the GDX um see how far back we can go. Of course we're still the GDX is at alltime high levels but we have been correcting here recently and let's take a look at the last month three months. So we we have rebounded but it hasn't really broken out or anything and it hasn't really trailed uh gold and silver uh in particular GDXJ just as well. It is it is in a sideways phase and stocks haven't really moved and looking at my portfolio the juniors in particular the explorers haven't really participated in what is going on. It's more the developers the larger cap companies of course but not the the juniors. So, um, lots of information. I don't want to run too long here, but, uh, a lot of interesting developments that we're that we're monitoring here, uh, at Zor financially. Um, please go check out our our interviews with a Michael Oliver. Um, Dave Colum, we're publishing tomorrow as well. I really enjoyed my chat with him. Make sure to go check that out on the channel. And then next week, we've got a great lineup joining us as well. We got the Fed meeting looming on Wednesday. So, exciting week ahead just before Christmas. I hope everybody's having a wonderful time. Enjoy the the holiday season. Merry Christmas if you don't watch any of my other videos in the next few weeks. But much appreciate you watching. 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