30 Fundies Share Their Best Picks for 2026 (Part 1)

Summary

In part 1 of this special episode, we bring together 30 top fund managers to share their boldest predictions for 2026 in the …

Transcript

Travis Ricardo, we've got one of my favorite episodes of the year coming up, don't we? >> 30 fund managers 2026 predictions. They're talking about what is their highest conviction prediction, their most non-conensus prediction, the best performing commodity, and the worst performing commodity. All 30 fund managers get the exact same set of four questions. They rapid fire answer them. We break it up into two separate episodes. This is part one of two. And mate, there is like 30 new ideas in my head of what I should research and potentially buy as a result of these dense conversations. I'm super excited. We're talking about obviously commodities, but also companies, exchange rates and currencies get a mention. We're talking about Australia. We're talking about overseas. We're talking about geopolitics. So, >> these are fund managers, new and old as well. >> They are heaps of ideas coming out the back of this one. So, we hope the money miners enjoy it as much as we did. Eh, >> totally. And speaking of enjoying stuff, I'm enjoying looking forward to our Christmas drinks coming up next week. So, this will be Tuesday the 16th of December at Brewdog Perth. So, that's on Gordon Street there. Come along. It starts from 5:00 p.m. and we'll just talk about mining stocks all night. Click the link in the show notes to RSVP. >> Come along. We're looking forward to it, mate. Should we rip in? >> Let's do it. >> Hey Rick, how you going? >> Yeah, well, thanks guys. Yourselves? >> Going very well. Excited to hear your predictions for the upcoming year? We we're yeah we're sto we're stoked mate you you did pretty well tipping last year so we're uh we hope you can back it up again this year with some great predictions to kick us off with mate what is your um your highest conviction prediction for for the year >> uh the top one is new merches and gold um yeah I really like Alex Passmore what he's doing they've got reserves about 140,000 ounces at uh at 4.8 8 and uh it's a lot of it's you know that's sitting in a nice open cut pit and and so what they've got is a toll treating or an all purchase agreement with Westgold and so the really interesting thing is it's got a a minimum and a maximum of uh 30,000 uh tons and with a cap at 50 but last month they they sold uh I think it was just over 67,000 tons so well above the 50,000 ton cap and uh that that was at about uh 3.69 grams, I think it was. So, it's a little bit hard to to forecast what what they're going to do because of that minimum and maximum cap. But, you know, at the the top end of of that, you know, they could be generating, you know, huge amount of cash at at the right time. And so, you know, I think it's uh pretty exciting. In fact, they had one broker, you know, suggesting it it could be somewhere near 200 mil of cash by uh mid next year. And that's a a company with a market cap around about 450. So, you know, I think that's a a pretty exciting and one that's sitting under the rad radar. >> I'm really biting my lip not to ask more questions, but we'll keep it succinct. Rick, what is your most non- consensus view for the upcoming year? >> Yeah, the most non-conensus one is that Darren Strao will be more popular with investors than Rally Finley, Bill Bemont, and Mark Clark combined. >> Wow. >> Wow. Okay. I I love that. Yeah, that's great. >> Yeah. Yeah. So I think u you know Belleview's you know it's a turnaround story. They they've certainly had a a challenging start to or challenging end of last year and start to this year but uh you know they've changed the mine plan. They they're mining in different parts. They're going to really open up uh Deacon Maine, Deacon North Tribune getting you know much better uh higher grade oil come through. And you know it is a high-grade mine. It is it is risky. there are challenges uh with that, but if he if he delivers uh it could be the turnaround story of 2026. So maybe I've gone over the ski tips on my combined uh uh suggestion there with the the three great but uh I I think he he's got potential to uh to to really excel. >> Brilliant. Rick, what about the uh the best performing commodity for 26? Uh probably I I really like gold but uh I'm going to sort of have a nuance on that in terms of you know I really like the uh the the gold developers and the uh the the the advanced explorers. So, so we've seen the the gold producers do really well in the last uh last couple of years, but I think that the the market is now transitioning where those guys will will, you know, continue to go well if the gold price goes up, but the real growth will come from uh those developers and explorers. So companies like uh Golden Horse I think's a real standout in terms of you know quality project you know could start their own operation potentially or or could be uh feeding into another another nearby mill uh rocks with with a project that's uh you know under construction that you know raised their equity and and then other you know advanced explorers like Warar in New South Wales with really high quality projects. >> I like that one Rick. And last but not least, what's going to be the reverse of that? The worst performing commodity. >> Yeah, I I just think the the real struggle will will continue for nickel and uh it's just one, you know, I think the Indonesians are doing such a great job uh at uh producing, you know, large volumes so cheap. It's just so difficult for for the the Australian nickel producers to to to move in. So that's that's commodity that I I you know, I I'll continue to stay clear of. Fantastic. Appreciate you making the time and joining us on Money of Mind again to share your predictions, Rick. >> No worries. Thanks very much, guys. >> Ben Richards from Senica. Mate, thank you so much for joining our Funy predictions. To kick things off, what is your highest conviction prediction for 2026? >> Yeah, thanks for having me, guys. Um, highest conviction prediction 2026 is XRF Scientific. XRF is the ticker. Um I think regardless of what happens in kind of any individual commodities, I think that XRF and some of these services players are really well positioned uh as a trickle down beneficiary of exploration spend as commodity prices particularly gold, copper, base metals have increased. Uh it's 270 mil market cap so it's still quite under the radar. I think uh its orbit crushers have been going gang busters which are doing the the gold sample crushing. um sample volumes going through ALS are improving. Uh ALS the stock itself is flying and XRF supplies among other customers ALS and these lab groups. So yeah, just think the data is really supportive. Uh cash balances for explorers are up 20% which means they're going to be doing more exploration and less likely to go under. Um fingers crossed. And yeah, I think uh ABS data last week was was also supportive in terms of exploration last quarter. uh and it may not be the sexiest idea but I think when we'll be sitting here in 12 months time uh reviewing our predictions with accountability um I think that yeah on an undemanding valuation of 21 times PE it's got a good recurring revenue belly uh and a history of earnings growth 26 26% peranom over the last 5 years uh yeah think the share price will be materially higher in 12 months time >> a services play I like it Ben and how about your most non-conensus prediction for the upcoming Yeah. So non- consensus um going to go with coal as a sector. Uh I suppose more broadly I think the energy complex is one that could could rebound in 2026. So we kind of look at oil and gas, coal, even lithium and uranium. Uh we've seen natural gas has started to move higher, coal and gas substitutes correlated. Bit of a catch-up trade in coal. Um, and yeah, just kind of looking at all this data coming out on the the energy mix and although the Australian government will parrot that renewables are uh at record highs, I think there's still in absolute terms coal still doing uh quite well even though everyone's forecasting it to kind of drop away into the abyss over the next few years. So I think as a thematic it's becoming well it's become quite undervalued. Uh and yeah, I think the tailwinds are there in 2026. So I suppose plays in the sector. I've spoken on the on the potty before about New Hope and Stanmore, but I mean Stanmore you're paying 15 16% free cash flow yield for this coming year um at kind of bottom of the cycle prices. So uh yeah, see see good kind of riskreward in in those coal stocks uh and the sector more broadly. >> Brilliant mate. Um I suppose the best performing commodity for 26 is thermal coal. Well, thought just to kind of change it up, throw in another one that we like, which is borite. Yep. >> Um, and yeah, I think just a quick overview, it's kind of four to five tons of borite goes into producing one ton of aluminium. Uh, again, on the substitute theme, I think aluminium and copper uh kind of interchangeable. Copper prices obviously on the move. I think more broadly we kind of like the medium-term setup for borksite in that China is running out of domestic borksite production which means they're importing more and more borite which is Chinese imports have grown at 25% kar over the last 20 years uh and we kind of see this as a similar paradigm to to iron ore in that iron ore um even though the marginal cost of production is very low particularly in Australia um the price has remained high and you say why is that I suppose if China is willing to pay um that marginal cost for them to to produce domestically um then it kind of the floor price is a lot higher. So for BSite we think that's sort of in the uh $70 a ton range which is a fantastic price for uh producers and yeah think it could be quite supportive for equities. VBX is one I've talked about before. for it kind of initially did well post IPO and has had really no love since. I think that's a really good way to play bside prices given that it's um near port. It's near surface or body should be a very simple um open pit truck uh and operation going at China which is a lot shorter distance obviously than Guinea which is where the other production comes from and we see significant risk too as it's kind of been highlighted this year. Uh and yeah could be a potentially um significant upside from a 37 mil market cap considering the NPV on offer. Awesome, Ben. And last but not least, what is going to be the worst performing commodity for 26? >> Sun's a bit of a tricky one because um you know, we look at resources, we think could have quite a good year in 2026 on the whole. Um but having said that, I think uh there's probably some downside in some of these strategic metals uh ones that have benefited a lot from these China export controls which has provided a you know real sugar hit for the commodity prices. So things like to call out too, I'd say antimony and tungsten which both look fairly frothy vertical moves on the um commodity price charts and I think once the hype dies down uh they'll be a bit weaker in 2026. So don't see the need to chase these metals. Um, and as we've seen in in kind of these smaller niche commodity markets, um, even looking at something like a lithium, once the price spikes, it it doesn't take much in in by way of swing production to to come online and and dampen these, um, prices. So, Lovado LV is one which is um, an interesting restart project and they've done really well getting it to where it is, but they're talking about supplying 7% of global antimony out of Hillrove, so doing just 5,000 tons peranom production. So, as you can see, like this supply um doesn't take many players to come online to to significantly increase production and and move through the cycle. So, yeah, those are a couple to to call out, but broadly bullish on the sector, so we'll see how we go. >> Even sharing a short candidate, I like it. >> No, not necessarily a short. I think it's um it's just a just a commodity price call really. >> I hear you. Appreciate you making the time for us, Ben, and sharing your predictions, mate. Looking forward to seeing how they fare over the upcoming year. >> Thanks, guys. Appreciate the opportunity. Warren Gilman of uh Queens Road Capital. So delighted that you're joining us again and I'd love to know your highest conviction prediction for 2026. >> Well, gentlemen, at the risk of appearing day class A, can I recommend my own stock? >> Please do. >> I think that is expected in these predictions. I mean, honest to God, I racked my brain from my highest conviction. And my highest conviction is Queens Road Capital listed on the TSX. Uh, and let me tell you five seconds as to why. Yes, >> next just mentioned hit an all-time record high last night. >> NextG is our biggest position. Uh, we have about 200 million US of NextGen, whether it converts or common shares. NextGen has been up 50% year to date. Queens Road is only up 25% year to date. And yet we pay a dividend every year that goes up double digits. We trade at a 40% discount. 40% discount NAV. So you can buy NextGen at a 40% discount and get a dividend every year. And you get all sorts of other bonuses like we just converted our gold royalty convert last week. We've got a 70% 70% irr in our gold royalty convert. We still own all our gold royalty stock which is at a record high and Tether announced two days ago that they're up to 13.2% on gold royalty and have been accumulating stock over the last month. Uh and Tether as you know is the world's 500 billion dollar gerilla. Uh so without doubt the highest conviction is Queens Road. Even if we just caught up to nextG, that's an easy 25% never mind where we're going to above that. So, uh, easy call, easy call, highest conviction. >> Well, I might be a ding ding ding by the time we air this one. >> So, I like the conviction, Warren. How about your most non-conensus prediction for the upcoming year? >> Now, uh, I made I might be talking my own book, QRC. Let me talk against my own book for, uh, non-consensus. And I am going to be a bit of a contrarian here. Uh QRC's portfolio is 50% uranium, 25% copper, and 25% gold and silver. I'm very bullish on the uranium price, which we'll come to. I'm very bullish on gold and silver. Copper, I think, has had its run. Uh we don't have coordinated global growth. China, I live in China. I can tell you China's in trouble. Uh you know ongoing real estate crisis in China. We don't have consumer consumption growing to any extent in the mainland. Uh obviously Europe is a problem. North America is an issue. Global growth is an issue. Uh we've had a great run up because of the uh tariff arbitrage and because of real supply constraints. But at the end of the day, it all comes down to supply and demand. The supply is adequate in the near term. Demand is not particularly strong. So, I think copper has had its day and we'll probably close the year lower. And I know that's contrarian and it's a bit against a bit a bit against my own book and that 25% of my assets are in copper, but that's more of a long-term play for me. The uh biggest asset we have in copper is Mashico copper which will IPO uh in another 18 months. And so I'm happy for copper to take a rest until we IPO. Then I hope copper takes off again which I hope it will. >> Brilliant. Warren got to ask you about the uh the best performing commodity of the year ahead. >> I know uh my call last year didn't quite perform because I called uranium. I'm sticking with it. I still think uranium could go 50% up in the coming year. Uh we didn't do it this year. Uh well, we started strong. We started very strong and then we tailed off. Uh it's been frustrating, especially on a spot basis, but I think uranium could close the year up 50%. Uh the other things that we're looking at, copper, I've talked about, precious metals, I believe will be higher, but does it have 50%? Does the gold price have 50% in it in the next 12 months? I don't don't think so. I think we need to consolidate our positions here around 4,000 to 5,000. So, uh, I'm calling uranium. It's going to be a great year finally. >> Yeah. And and term pricing has been improving to date. So, that that's kind of good to see. Looking forward to seeing how that one plays out. How about the flip side of that one? What what's going to be the worst performing commodity >> on a thematic basis? Anything to do with China? uh and and that covers a vast range of commodities, but the highest profile, especially in your neck of the woods, is rare earths. How many times do we have to see this movie where China constricts supply, prices go up, consumers in Europe and the US get all excited. Oh, we've got to do something about this. We've got to do something about this. We invest hundreds of millions if not billions of dollars in trying to address a rarer supply chain and then China says, "Oh, goody. Oh, we didn't Oh, oh, you want rare earths, do you? Oh, here they are." And then they just flood the market and drop the price so that every hundred million dollars that you invested is now extremely worthless. you will see China play out that playbook again which they've done every five to six years for the last 30 years. So watch rare earths. Same goes for tungsten. Same goes for gallium. Same goes for all of these specialty uh metals that China dominates. Uh but let's use the hope highprofile as an example. Watch for significantly increased supply of rarers over China and the consequent uh fall in prices. Warren, I know I I know there's only four questions, but can I throw in a fifth and you can optionally answer it, but do you think NextGen gets acquired on on the permit announcement if they get the permit in around February? >> Well, obviously I don't know the answer to that question. Uh, and I'm on the board so I have to be careful what how I respond to that. But obviously once a company gets fully permitted, which we expect we will be by May after the second CNSC meeting in February, uh then I think it's it's it's academic that the odds improve with a permit once you start constructing a mine. That's that's that's an obvious factual answer. >> Very diplomatic. Thank you so much, Warren. Um really enjoy your your bold calls and uh we look forward to to your predictions again next year. They're always entertaining. >> Tremendous, guys. I look forward to watching the episode. >> Kingsley Jones, Jevans Global. Absolute pleasure to see you again this year. Uh last year you threw us a curveball and predicted burillium to be the best performing commodity. We had to Google what Burillion was after that, but very excited to see what we've got in store for us. What is your highest conviction prediction for 2026? >> Yeah, look, I I think that uh I I'm going to be a little boring here and say I think it's going to be a great year for copper. Um but uh I want to spice it up a little bit by mentioning also that I do think that uh it'll be a good year for um malibdinum and marinium uh both which are copper byproducts for different reasons. But um look the main story there is copper. Um I like many people have been following the supply tightness and uh you know that big move in the futures contract. Um and indeed you know perhaps a renewed copper cycle. >> Beautiful. Was that is that your um uh your best performing commodity of the year? And then um or is that your highest conviction prediction? >> Oh that's my highest conviction prediction. I like it internally. like it >> in in ter in terms of the and and let's let's break that down. I mean a as as I interpret that um you know your highest conviction prediction is where you are prepared to put sizable capital to work uh with a high confidence that you're going to make a pretty good return. So you know a a good return is any in in trading from my perspective is anything above 15%. I I expect we'll get at least that in copper. um and and therefore I think it's a it's a solid contender in terms of um yeah the best performing commodity just in terms of the widely covered ones uh where you can put money to work um in terms of pure price action uh recognizing that you might have to uh get out and hurry um would would have to be silver um uh and and the other one that I would put in that uh bucket is is platinum um and and the reasons for that is uh well silver uh you know it it tends to follow gold and we know that it has a much higher beta uh to those activities. But the big reason why I think that maybe silver's still undercooked is that it's a major major input to solar um panels these days. It's still not the dominant um demand for silver, I don't think. Um but it is building all the time and I do think we're we're really set up for a massive renewed solar cycle given that the Chinese players are now you know nudging into profitability uh and we're seeing with um the advent of um much lower costs on stationary energy storage batteries um particularly uh sodium ion batteries for energy storage in China uh and they're selling a lot of that kit into emerging markets in Africa and elsewhere. I really think we're we're set up for a good year for for for silver in terms of that, but it's very volatile. So, highest conviction copper, highest price performance in beta generally as a trade, keep trading silver, and I would emphasize that I don't think it's a buy and hold. Copper I think is a buy and hold. >> In music to the ears of the the silver bulls out there, Kingsley, how about your non-conensus prediction? >> Yeah. Um, look, uh, that's where I come in on the the the Molly and the Reinium just because they're outside of, um, you know, most focus and and just for context, um, they're two very different metals in terms of end use, but I think both enduse markets are probably going to have better years. Um, in in terms of commodity picks, um, Molly uh, is produced as a secondary product primarily from copper smelting. So you're going to get most of your of your of your molly from uh your Cadelo in Chile which runs a a big copper smelter as everybody knows. Um and then others like KGHM in um Poland and and and so on. Um Molly is mainly used in um hardening steel. Um and one of the big application areas is um oil country tubular goods um uh pipes. um you need to put the molly in there um so that the gas and other volatiles don't um destroy the pipe. Um and so for any sort of LNG activity, piped natural gas, a piped oil production, um OCTG uh tubing is in demand. uh two stocks just offh hand uh Tinaros the uh New York listed Tanaras stock which is an Argentine producer uh with operations all around the world including the US for OCTG that looks pretty good to me as a steel player and the other one in France is velouric um which is uh you know had um a world of misery until you know it's starting to pick up now. So look um Molly I think is is kind of good. Um I don't think you buy Molly specifically. You you buy copper plays um that have Molly credits. Um and ditto for reinium. I mean you don't there's no primary mind for reinium. It's a it's a it's a fly spec of a commodity. Um but it's it's very very important in defense way more important than rare earth. Um be because you cannot build high performance fighter jets without reinium and there's only a couple hundred tons on the planet. Um, and that all comes from tertiary circuits on copper smelters. So again, if you're buying copper exposures, you're going to get credits. Most of those credits go to smelters, which would be Cadelo. But if you're looking for listed, um, play in that area, I' I'd recommend KGHM in in Poland, uh, which is a vertically integrated copper, uh, miner producer, smelled, whatever. >> Not every day we get French stocks pitched on the podcast, which is, uh, yeah, a wide world out there. A lot of things to to look at. I appreciate that, Kingsley. And last but not least, what's going to be the worst performing commodity? >> Oh, look, I I think, you know, if you're looking at the big ones, um soft commodities generally, I think will be weak, but we're not talking about that. We're talking about mining. I I I just don't have any hope for iron or moving up. Look, I think with Samandu coming on stream in in in Africa, the Rio play um in joint venture, um I I just think the outlook for iron ore is more of the same, just go sideways. Um, and my view for, I don't know, 5 years now has been, you know, $100 is the mark. On on a bad day, you might go to 85. On a good day, you might go to 115. Um, 100 is the mark. Moving. Um, so it's it's kind of boring. >> I actually remember you wrote you wrote an article about like $90 being a flaw for and you know, you've largely been very correct on that. So, kudos to you. >> Well, yeah, exactly. because a lot of people have like a 75 buck, but all the same 100 bucks is pretty good for a lot of our Pilra players. >> Oh yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Don't don't be shy. I mean, there'll be money to be made. I I think now the action in Rio and BHP will be their copper plans, not their not their iron ore plans. >> Absolutely. Great to chat as always, Kingsley. Thanks for joining us. >> 100%. Thanks, guys. >> Hank Rule from Sierra Marina Capital. Thank you so much for joining us this year. >> Thank you guys. Always a pleasure. What is your highest conviction prediction for the next year? >> Man, well, I'm gonna sound like a broken record since the last time I was on you guys, but guess what? It is it is still none other than Magnum Mining up in Sudbury, Ontario. Remains remains my largest position. Um, you know, we talked about it back then. Have not sold a share since. It's um >> this has been a ramp up year for their McCreaty West mine, but they finally got into the higher grade or there in November. and with their LVAC line coming online potentially next year. Um they just had an updated MRE this past November grades uh significantly better than historical KGHM estimate. Um and plus, you know, there's there's this still excellent exploration potential um at that LVAC mine as well as a number of their other properties as well. You know, maybe just maybe at LVAC they've got a rerun of the Morrison deposit. Again, very early days. We will we will see. But in any event, there's still plenty of meat on the bone at all their minds. um team keeps forging ahead and you know look they they they continue to to you know make progress. The share price continues to go up but at this point still like if if you guys can you know find another North American copper producer that is trading below NAV um at you know NAV at $4 copper um these days like let me know. I probably would like to buy that too. Um, but you know, yeah, I also saw you guys had um Paulo Mackro on recently. He did a great article on Nickel >> um the invisible metal and I'm not going to be brave enough to make nickel one in my calls, but um >> but like if nickel ever gets going like look out on Magna um and actually he mentioned Magnus in this article. I won't spoil it for >> for you know non nonsubscribers but he observed you know what it's trading at two and a half times 2027 and his words that that's beyond cheap. That's Magnum. Still still long. >> Magnificent call with Magnum, mate. Um, what about your most non-conensus prediction for 26, >> man? I've thought about going a lot of ways with this one. And I don't know if it's non-conensus for like the 20 people on Earth who follow the stock, but um, but given where it's been trading, I think it's almost by definition. Um, going with it's Aussie listed Kings Rose Mining. Um, finished platinum explorer where I've been accumulating over the last six months. Um, I think it's a crazy setup. They're still not trading much above cash. It's maybe a 30, $35 million Aussie market cap. And then you've got 20 million Aussie in cash. Um, and they've, you know, exploration partnership with BHP in northern Norway, but then they've got what's quite possibly one of the world's largest and highest grade PGM projects outside South Africa. Um, it's Penacat, Northern Finland. Uh, the court approval of drill should be coming through literally any day now. Um, they got the government permit. I mean, yeah, literally any day. >> I'm laughing because I've got to do a ding-ding ding ding on it. And um yeah, the drilling waiting to drill another hole since 2006 here, but yeah, it's coming any day. >> Yeah. No, I'm right. No, it's it's any day, right? Or Yeah. And you can grow cobwebs. We're on month 16 of this 12-month process. So, I actually I actually was almost saying like I hope that permit doesn't finally come through this evening. I'd have to find like something else to tell you guys about, but um but um still would have been nice. But, you know, I I just think it's it's crazy cheap. Like, if you they again, they got their permit. It's been appealed by a couple environmental NOS's on what are what are pretty frivolous grounds if you look into it. Like the appeal references uranium mining, which just like isn't isn't going on there. No uranium. Um you look at the track record of one of the NGOs's that appealed. Um Scott Nor, who's a former company officer. He's pretty active on X. Um uh you know, posted actually, you know, you can you can find it on X as well. who've got like a 99 Mining Watch Finland, they got like a 99% rejection rate in terms of their appeals. They just go out and appeal whatever stuff that's going on in Finland. So again, if they if and when they get their permit, which to your guys' point, you know, I hope it's this season, um >> not sure what it rerates to, but like you're probably looking at several million ounces at several grams a ton of PGMs, including and it's like 60 like you got roodium in there. um like half a gram per ton of rodium starting from surface in what's supposed to be according to the Fraser Institute most mining friendly jurisdiction on earth. So I I really like set up there and I'm like lowkey bullish on BGM too. So >> one for people to do a bit of bit of homework on Hank. How about the best performing commodity? >> Ah um this is not a spicy answer. Um there's like a whole roster of of uranium bulls who would probably you know make all my points and more. But if you think about uranium and that that's my answer it's just remarkable like all the positive progress we have had on the demand front over the past call it two years all the supply delays all the ramp up challenges production shortfalls etc. And it's pretty crazy. I mean I know the long-term price has been ticking up. Obviously, it's actually good that that has. Otherwise, you really start to worry. But, um, it's pretty crazy that from a spot price front, we're pretty much, you know, back where we were over two years ago, like October, November 2000, 2023. Um, so, you know, we're still not, to my understanding, at replacement rate contracting. Um, and I'm not saying for sure that like 2026 is the year where you get something breaking in the uranium market, but I also think there's no reason it wouldn't be. uh you look at what basically the whole rest of critical minerals complex has done over the past year. You look at clearly where the US and other countries have as a terms of nuclear renaissance as a priority. You look at like the $80 billion deal with Westinghouse for example. You look at they're you know the Trump guys are talking about a strategic uranium reserve. Um you've still got SPAT periodically active in the market. Um, and I just think there's, you know, there's a lot of things that could be the straw that breaks the I don't know, you know, breaks the reactor's back. So, we'll see. I'm, you know, I'm hopeful. >> Brilliant. Mate, what about the flip side? >> Ah, so um worst worst commodity. I was going I was I was going to say um you know rare earths at least judged by the uh you know spot price of NDPR in China but that's um I think that's that's a little bit of a of a cop out because it's not really you know there's many ways to measure rare earths. I think I think I will instead go with cobalt. Um you know again nothing revoly here. Um it's a metal I think a lot of people love to hate but you look at it and it's up 100% the last year right and that's yeah not due to anything you know truly structural in terms of supply man. Supply man's still pretty cooked right. you've got a lot of price insensitive supply. You've got um demand destruction from shifting, you know, away from, you know, less cobalt or cobalt free batteries. Um but you do have the DRC government, you know, controlling u banning exports that's supposed to be placed with a replaced with a quota system now soon. My understanding is that's still not even the case yet. You know, things could go higher before they go lower, right? like it's going to take some time even once they do get that put the system in place for exports to get out to China. Um but and and then also you've got the US government in the mix, right? The DA working to buy half a billion dollars of cobalt. They seems like they canceled actually their tender. Um maybe it's back on now, but long story short, like those are, you know, those are temporary uh disruptions to I think what is a what is a pretty permanent um grim looking supply demand picture. So, I don't I don't think there's any reason for Cobalt to hang around $50,000 a time. >> Awesome, Hank. Thanks for coming on and sharing your predictions. Very keen to see how they play out. >> Thank you as always, guys. Yeah, me too. >> Edley Whit Line Selection Group. It's like you've never left. Um we're delighted to to speak with you again. So, shortly after our last conversation, we're more interested in what your big picks are for 2026. Lead us away with your highest conviction prediction for the year ahead. Well, I was going to start with the North Queensland Cowboys winning the NRL Premiership, but I think I'm going to be on a massive hiding to nothing there. So, um, my highest conviction prediction for 2026 is that liquidity improves. Uh, that means people can raise more money in the junior end, explorers, developers, and that spreads out. This year, we've seen it very focused on gold. Uh, I see that spreading into other things. That's my highest conviction for 2026. >> Beautiful. I like it, Headley. And how about if we move to your most non-conensus view? >> Well, I was going to say something about gold M&A, but it's just really risky to kind of make picks on that and you tempted to go into too much detail. Thinking deeply about it, and this was actually provoked by the conversation that we had when I was in your office uh a week and a bit ago. And I think that 2026 particularly as the world starts to invest in future supply of mining again is going to be the year where we start to see the differentiation based on jurisdictional risk. So uh in the last 10 years maybe uh you know 80% of the funding went to the Americas, Australia, Canada etc. um and 20% to the rest of the world or so. So so a bit like that. I think that split's going to be much more um western markets are prepared to fund projects in areas which are considered safe and some of those jurisdictions which are more edgy are probably going to see a lack of money or funding via Chinese markets or something like that. And I think that's been becoming more obvious, but I think 2026 is a year where it'll become far more apparent as funding starts to spread out. >> I like you thinking Headley, you know, my big call for 26, mate. It's Hley wearing the same shirt on Money of Mine again. Hley, how about your best performing commodity for the year? >> Uh, my best performing copper commodity is copper, and I don't think there's anything too controversial about that. It's been bumping up against a roof for the last 20 years. Uh, demand, I think, is is starting to look uh robust enough. I just don't know if it's going to burst through that or creep through that, but I think copper is going to perform very, very well um next year and beyond. Fingers crossed on that one. And last but not least, worst performing commodity. >> Well, the US dollar isn't a commodity, is it? But, uh, I was thinking that could become a fossil fuel soon, and I don't think it's going to perform very well in price sense. Um, even so, that might not be a story for 2026. So, uh, to speak about an actual commodity, I I sort of get the sense that there is an awful lot of, uh, price expectation built up in some of the the criticals. uh some of them have become quite elevated and are now in a position where we're going to see project delivery of new supply uh either next year or the anticipation of it next year turning into delivery in 2027. So I see volatility uh in some of the criticals markets particularly the small metals markets with projects close to delivery and antimony is probably the example which is closest to mind there. Um, I think it's a lot harder to bring new uranium, rare earth, etc. Uh, projects to market and they'll be tempted by price, but a bit slower to deliver. I think antimony is the one that's kind of got the look of lithium about it at the moment. >> Antim is the new whipping boy, I think. >> Has have other people been whipping it? Have they? >> There there has been a couple. I mean, it's had a great run, hasn't it? So, you can say it in the same breath. There's a few of those other critical minerals that may be coming back down to reality in the coming year. >> Yeah. Well, I mean, uh, whenever we see a a ferocious run in a market which is really small, um, you just get the the impression that something's very delicately balanced. So, I suppose that's what kind of, uh, leads to my thinking there. But, um, maybe I'm not being as original as I thought. Uh, could be someone else beat me to the punch. Be more than happy to share that prediction. >> Nothing like the incentive of high prices. Headley, great to chat as always. Thanks for coming on and sharing your predictions. >> It's been great to chat to you, chaps, and I hope you have a lovely break over Christmas. I can't wait to talk to you next year. I need to pause just for a moment, JD, because I kind of need to research all of these opportunities that are coming up. Just got to pause. Got to take five. While I'm having a breather, have you got something for me? >> I do, mate. I've got a prediction of my own. A very high conviction prediction. >> Tell me >> that Sanvic ground support continues to be the best ground support service in the entire mining industry. What do you reckon? >> Uh, you don't even need to make when you're predicting something with 100% certainty. No one really gives you credit for that prediction. >> It's true. And that's why I didn't make it a non-conensus for you because everyone knows Sanvic ground support is the best ground support in the industry. Just look at their innovations. Look at the stuff they've come out with in the last couple week mate. We've got new resin capsules for the underground miners out there. We've also got underground sensors. Remember, it's not just ground support they do, but they want to keep the people safe underground. So, check out the new sensors. Seamlessly integrate with everything you've got underground. You can get them in there, plug in and play in no time. I feel like every single week Sanvic ground support has a new product out and it's almost it's almost as certain as Sanvic being the best provider of ground support in the industry. That's almost that's actually just as certain as waking up tomorrow and it being another day. >> It's very true. I just go on Derek Herd's LinkedIn whenever I need a bit of an update and it's just beautiful. You can see the updates come through one after the other. Just did daily checkup of Derek's LinkedIn account. >> You know what I do? I go on Derrick's LinkedIn and I click send me a notification when Derek does any post because then then I never miss anything. >> Yeah, that's the way to go. And money miners out there, I think you should do the same and go one step better. Get in touch with Derek Herd. Put in an order with Sanvic ground support. Go Sanvic >> mate. Supporting the mining industry and Sanvic supporting us. Thank you. >> Rusty, it's prediction time, mate. 2026. What is your highest conviction prediction for the upcoming year? >> Yeah, cool. Thank you uh so much for having me as always. Um love your work. So um yeah, gratitude for that and um uh always love this question. Um highest conviction answer would be whatever I tell you'll be wrong. So um >> we looked at your predictions last year and you were pretty bang on. I think >> pretty pretty stellar calls from last year which we can maybe we can run through at the end quickly. >> Okay, cool. That'd be great for the ego. Thank you. Um, no worries. Uh, so so yeah, I think it's it's a it's a wonderful question. It's always a tricky one because it's a probabilistic estimate of a future event. And so like as an organization as an ethos um we we we deliberately try to leave space by um we sort of set anticipated direction um but try not to build expectation if that sounds um if that if that makes sense um without getting too sort of philosophical about it but um but we'll jump to the answer. So um so highest conviction prediction for 2026 would be um uh the west uh awakens. So um so what does that mean? Um it means that today you know our view is that we are very firmly in a multipolar dynamic. Um not approaching one but in one. And I think that um the west more broadly, so you know us uh here in Australia um the US, Europe, Canada, etc. uh and some of the know uh Southeast Asian nations, Japan, you could include in that mix. I think um in general there's a psychological difficulty in accepting the movement from a US hegman to a to a multipolar dynamic. I think we are already in one and that awareness and acceptance will come in 2026 and that has very dramatic ramifications for how we all think about things. So, um yeah, we firmly believe we're in that dynamic. There has been a reluctance to acceptance of the dynamic. We think 2026 will see acceptance and it's going to have very very major ramifications and I think where we'll see that and feel that most relative to to markets is in the function of the Fed and I think we're going to understand that the Fed the the concept of independence of the US Fed is going to shift quite dramatically. And um and so we will start to see and understand the Fed as a subset towards US uh objectives that are framed within a multipolar dynamic. And so uh the Fed will function as a subset to that core strategic driver. that has not been the case for a very very long time. And um and some some people like to talk about a multipolar dynamic uh through the Cold War. That was not a true multi-polar dynamic. That was multipolar in a military sense, but never in an economic one. We're now in in one that is very firmly both economic and military. and um and and and as I said that awareness and understanding will bring some very dramatic changes and I think the Fed will function subservient to that key strategic challenge and and as such I think we're going to see a lot less independence from the Fed and I think that's been well flagged by the administration in the US and so I do think we we are in an era of financial repression I think the Fed will be um will be assisting in how that uh plays out and it will be very very hard to navigate and understand that because financial repression doesn't work if everybody sees and understands it. Does that make sense? >> I know that's a little bit of a >> it's an outlied one and a bit >> it's wonderful >> bit of a riddle. you've um you you've veered on non-conensus in your highest conviction prediction already, but I I can't I can't help but now ask for your non-conensus call. >> Yeah. Cool. Cool. So So and just rounding that out, I think that means lower rates and higher inflation and that the Fed will accommodate that. >> Yeah. And um and that that has very meaningful implications for many uh financial market uh dynamics and asset classes. um most non-conensus prediction for 2026. Um again, I think it'll be a bit off topic perhaps to to where many of your um guests might weigh here given that um obviously this is a resources um specialist um podcast. Um, I think we will see in 2026 a bit of an AI reset and um, and there's some great coverage on this from people far more intelligent than than myself, but um, AI will be more disruptive than many appreciate, but also more complicated and harder to execute. So um simplistic adoption of LLMs I think will struggle or fail versus like detailed agentic engineering and and those that embrace detailed agentic engineering will win. So small bespoke specialist models that plug in LLMs through a very sort of intelligently and considered an engineered work stream will win. So, a AI augmentation um over simplistic AI replacement. You know, this idea that LLMs just jump in and and get the job done, I think uh will not will not happen. At the same time, it will still be incredibly impactful, but it will only be those that first of all adopt AI and secondly do an a tremendous amount of work within um the agentic engineering so augmentation as opposed so if you those that lose will be those that simply put their head in the sand and say it's not a thing go away that's too difficult to to embrace. Or those that say, "Oh, it's cool. It's coming." And I'll just wait for a third party to deliver something that does everything for me. I think neither of those will succeed. Those types of mindsets will be displaced by groups who think very, very hard around how they utilize AI. And that takes a lot of human work. Um, ironically enough, does that make sense? >> Yeah. Yeah. I like the big picture thinking, Rusty, when when you take into account your view of a lower interest rate world going forward, how does that how does that reflect itself in a best performing commodity for next year? >> Yeah, great question. Um, and best performing is really always tricky, right? Because it's again it's a moment in time. And so best performing relative to what? So, are we saying best performing relative to this moment, this spot price? >> Yes. >> Um, and yes, yes. And so, if that is the question, it's a really tricky one because that means a percentage movement from this moment. So, I could say to you like we still really like gold and we really like tin for for very different reasons. So, we still have really high allocations to those spaces. Um, but do we think they would be the highest percentage movers from the spot price today? Probably not. So, um, the answer to that one, it is a guesstimate. Um, I'm going to go with nickel. And, um, and that's pretty outwide, too. And, and so nickel could easily move, you know, 50% higher than where it trades today. And the ironic part of that answer is it could do that and every Western nickel asset would still remain uninvestable. So um so even if you held that view which is you know the one I'm giving as a best guesstimate in terms of percentage movements um that doesn't mean you're running out and buying every nickel asset you can find either. It just means that I think uh this year you know nickel has nickel has and is trading into the cost curve even though that that that cost curve has shifted so dramatically over the last 5 years but there is more discipline coming from um the production that matters which is predominantly Indonesian um based geographically and Chinese owned and um with that discipline I think we could better nickel prices, but I think even within that framework, you don't want to own any of the western nickel assets because that that'll shift again. And um and so no, I don't think that you want to scurry out and buy a heap of Western nickel assets, even if you think nickel's going higher. So, so we own we own Nickel Industries. We like it as a as a business. We think it's a tremendous business. Um, we think nickel could go higher next year as a percentage movement, but um, but yeah, owning Western nickel assets would still be really problematic. >> The flip side, Rusty, the worst performing commodity for the next 12 months from spot today. >> Yeah. Yeah. I think in line with um kind of all my answers here, I'm going to go right off pie and and arguably pretty probably pretty non-consensus. So um I I would say sort of anything China dominant I think we have a very you know this year we've seen a very interesting narrative around you know anything that China dominates you want to own understand exactly where that's come from um but I don't think that the west you know the US administration under Biden you had the inflation reduction act under Trump you have different things that still don't solve the equation. So, um the west still has a problem to to solve for, but they don't have the policy settings yet to solve it. So, in 2026, you know, I think spaces like silver, lead, zinc, you know, there's a history of Chinese supply response to price signals in those spaces. So if you're going in with expectation that um uh that anything that's China dominant is going to continue to roof next year. I don't think the policy setting in the west is quite where it needs to be yet for that to hold. So um caution warranted. >> Fantastic as always. Great to chat Rusty. appreciate you sharing your predictions and looking forward to seeing how they go over the coming year, mate. >> John Forward of Lao Resource Funds Management. Um, absolutely spectacular year that you've had and um, congrats on that. We're very keen to to pry out your wisdom looking into 2026. John, what is your highest conviction prediction for 26? >> Oh, look, actually, um, uh, you know, I've got a a stock stock prediction. Is that is that all right, guys? totally fine. >> Okay. Yeah. Look, so obviously talking our own book, but um you know, our our biggest holding um dollar value is um Astral Resources. Um and I guess that sort of you know there's there's you know it's a it's a prime candidate for M&A. So that sort of exemplifies in the gold WA gold sector that that's probably an example. You know, we think WA gold, M&A in particular, M&A in gold in general is um going to have a big year um next year. It's already had a pretty big year in 25. So um you know, I think uh Astral, you know, it's trading at a PNAV of about 0.1. So, uh, I think I think we'll see, um, more value attributed to these free development opportunities one way or the other in in 2026 and particularly in gold. >> I like it, John. I like it a lot. How about your most non-conensus prediction? Uh so another another um another stock um which is very much under the radar and I think you know I'm really excited about it from an exploration point of view is one that perhaps not too many people have heard of. It's a little one in our portfolio called Alvo Minerals over in Brazil >> looking for, you know, poly metallic VMS discoveries in a a pretty, you know, wellendowed belt of VMS's at the Palmer project. And they've just got on to something which I think has got the elements of a exciting discovery. It's called Turo. They've got 100% of it. It's um you know over a kilometer long in surface geochemistry and goss. It's got some big EM plates at depth and their initial two drill holes into this thing and never been drilled before. Um have hit visual, you know, some exciting visual lead, zinc, copper um mineralization awaiting the assays. But for a market cap of 10 million bucks or thereabouts, I think it um represents some really exciting value. >> That's uh one we're going to have to have a look at after this call. But uh thank you. Thanks, mate. What's your best performing commodity for 2026? >> Look, um one that you know has been the worst performing commodity for 2025 or or or amongst them. Uh, and it's not just because I think um, you know, it's going to be just because it's been down, it's got to go up. But oil, I think, uh, could do pretty well in 2026. It's certainly been very low uh, in 2025 and has been, you know, the the G word mentioned, the glut the glut word mentioned in oil. But in fact, you know, oil 80% of the time it um is driven by the strength or otherwise of the US dollar. I when the US dollar goes down, oil oil tends to go up. So I think that we may see a weaker US dollar in 2026 and we could see the oil price strengthen quite substantially particularly you know if there's some production discipline or more production discipline from OPEC OPEC plus >> first one to call out energy I like that John and last but not least what is going to be the worst performing commodity for next year >> look it's very hard I was saying to the guys here at the fund um there's so many commodities with great fundamentals. It's hard to pick one that um you know is going to underperform based on based on fundamentals. But I think you know if you had to point the stick at something and this is one that has been come up uh in previous years I know when you've done this exercise um is iron ore you know you can you can point to iron ore and say well some do is probably going to you know come on stream you know it's probably going to start shipping next year and the Chinese economy yeah it does seem to have been defined ing gravity uh for for for several years in terms of the iron ore price at least. So So that's one, you know, not that I'm predicting it to crash, but I think um it's perhaps the the least good of um you know, a basket of commodities which all look to have, you know, really good outlooks. >> Thank you so much for your contributions this year, John. We look forward to doing it again with you next year. Um I'm sure your predictions will farewell like they did last year. Uh fingers crossed, you know. Um it's always good to make it's always fun to make predictions, but you never want to put a time frame on them. >> Chris Bry of uh House Mountain, thank you so much for joining us for 2026 predictions. To kick right off, love to ask you, what's your highest conviction prediction for 26? Well, look, I'm based in Washington DC and it's no surprise to I think anybody any of your listeners that uh policy um has driven I think commodity performance, commodity price and that's likely to continue. I think one of the blind spots in Washington DC is that there's been such a huge focus on the upstream portion of the metal supply chain. Where is lithium going to come from? Where is the copper going to come from? etc., etc. um that the midstream and downstream has basically been ignored. I think under the Biden administration, there was a little bit more of a focus there. And I think one of one of the big surprises or perhaps a high conviction idea that I have is that you're likely to see some of the capital in the United States government that again was going into mining is now going to take a closer look at midstream and downstream. So, cathode active materials, uh, anode active materials, because honestly, at the end of the day, what's the point of having all that mining capacity if you don't have the downstream u, uh, industries to feed it into. So, I think that's one of the things that I'm really focused on in 2026. >> That's a bit off the beaten path. I like it. Chris, how about your most non-conensus view for the coming year? >> You know, look, I've been focused on the battery supply chain for about the last 15 years. And the one thing uh that you just can never control is obviously commodity price. And I sort of realized uh a few years ago I actually I guess all I'm saying is a few years ago I had realized one of the ways to try and insulate yourself from lithium say going from $8,000 to $80,000 and then back down to eight is trying to leverage technology right to protect the highs and the lows. And so I guess from a non-consensus perspective, when you think about from a macro perspective, what's going on in the world today with respect to electrification, with respect to defense spending and global rearmament, um I think you're going to see technology from an extraction and a refining perspective come back into vogue. Um, you know, DLE, direct lithium extraction is probably the one that I think a lot of your listeners are most familiar with, but I would expect to see technology that leverages the ability to extract and process minerals more effectively, permeate other metals and minerals. >> The uh the good old tech extraction plays, they they are hot in a hot market. Um, Chris, I've got to ask you, what is it that going to be the best performing commodity for the year ahead? Look, you know that I Let's get the easy ones out of the way. All right, maybe it's not easy, but obviously I think lithium and copper are going to roar in 2026 again for obvious reasons, electrification primarily, and I think defense spending secondarily. I would say that what I am most excited about, and I'm not here to promise higher prices or anything like that. I'm just simply saying I think that they're of interest. um very interested in the magnesium market, very interested in the boxite uh market and supply chain. And then just to kind of round it out, also taking a very careful look at titanium and tungsten. Okay. And so those four metals all are critical plays or critical pieces of both the electrification supply chain and the rearmament supply chain. So, you know, are we going to see prices of those materials go to the moon? Honestly, probably not because they had a great run in 2025, but I would expect to see pricing strength uh for some or all of them into 2026 based on this very very strong tailwind. >> Yeah. Yeah. And if we flip that one on its head, Chris, what are going to be the worst performing commods? >> Well, I think nickel uh is is the one dog that that I see out there. Look, there's a lot of it um available. it's coming from Indonesia and the Indonesians and the Chinese really dominate that supply chain. Uh and from my understanding it looks like there's much more to come or much more that could come. Um when you take a step back and think about the battery business obviously again it's no secret that LFP has really taken an enormous amount of market share away from nickel heavy cathodes and I don't see that uh abating at all. So, I would think that nickel would would probably have a pretty sour year in 2026 >> or nickel can't get a win. Chris, thanks a lot for joining us and sharing your views. Looking forward to seeing how they fare over the coming year. >> Thanks, guys. Appreciate the opportunity. >> Mr. Anthony Kavanagh, it is great to have you back on the show. Let's get into your 2026 predictions, mate. What is going to be what is rather your highest conviction pick for the coming year? >> Oh, mate, it's hard not to double down on on my pick from last year. Um, we just did the episode obviously on on Havl, but uh, it's hard not to go again with small cap copper. I mean, develop's had a good year. I think develop could have a good year again as wood launch starts to ramp up particularly from March onwards. I mean, the feedback that I received from the Havler episode, you know, parties associated with the deal, party's not associated with the deal. I would say there's still a lot of interest uh, in that asset, how that deal transpires and obviously the EGM vote is um, end of January. So, let's see if there's a competing bid. If there's not, I'm not too upset. I really think Sandfire is going to be a great partner for them. Um, really excited about, you know, Havler working with Sandfire. So, and and if that EGM vote goes through positively, which I assume it would, unless there's an Interloper, I would start to see uh the share price close that valuation gap as as I alluded to on the on the on the podcast. Um, I'd also say that I've got to bring something new to the table as well. So, I would suggest that for copper, I think the Kobar basin remains extremely interesting, particularly now that Mac's been taken over. I think Aurelia and and Peele probably are two really interesting opportunities there. I would also say the likes of Hot Chili and some of the South American players going to start to garner more attention um as the market starts to look down the curve now that you know maybe Kakar's been been sorted. Um the other one I would say and I know I've spoken to you guys about it's not necessarily a pure copper play is is is um Sunstone in Ecuador. I think some of the Ecuadorian names are starting to garner a fair bit of interest. You've seen the neighboring Titan Minerals um receive some some corporate activity. You've seen Gina active in the region. You've seen Soul Gold receive a takeover offer from Jangshi copper. And even though Sunstone is not pure copper play, I mean 25% copper and and gold, it's like 4 million ounces of gold and 300,000 tons of copper. I think that's extremely interesting for a cap of just over 100 million bucks. So, um yeah, I know there's a few upset shareholders because they've raised capital, but I think that puts them in a good place for next year. And and I know they've been talking about corporate activity, but I would suspect that that some of that comes to fruition um in 2026. Uh, great one, Kev. Couple ding-ding dings in there. Um, what about what about the most non-conensus call for uh for 26? >> Yeah, this was a tough one. I mean, you know, I came to the table banging on on mints last year and that was when no one else wanted to own it. So, that was very non-conensus last year. >> I'm not sure if my pick this year is as non-conensus, but I was happy with the men's call. Um, and that is probably that energy. I think has a good year in 2026. I mean, it's traded sideways for the last few years, probably been one of the most underpouring sectors. are pretty optimistic on energy particularly in the back half of next year. I I think that with the midterm elections coming up. I would suggest that maybe the US and the Saudis have a bit of a pact and we've seen some increases in production via OPEC for the last few months. I would say that by the middle of next year maybe those productions start to go the other way. Um and we start to see a more balanced supply demand situation for for oil and gas. Particularly oil I'm really optimistic on. So um yeah, that that would be my pick. And if I had to pick some some names to associated with that, I'd say like a drone. I'd say Santos. I'd say, you know, anything with quasi oil exposure via LG as well, like a beach or an equis. Um, even like a comet ridge. Um, I would say I'm pretty excited about. >> I'm with you there, C. A few more ding-ding spaced in there. >> Just keep dinging the whole way through. Again, >> how about the the best performing commodity if we sort of put energy to aside for a moment, mate? >> Yeah, I I can't double up on copper energy. Um, last year I think I said Henry Har and I said um, probably Coke and Cole. I'm still optimistic Coke and Cole, but I will come with something fresh. Um, and that is spoine. I think I said to you guys before that, um, I think there's going to be some fun managers that say it's the best, some fun managers say it's the worst. I think it's going to be a pretty binary call. I'm sitting with the balls on this one. Um, I I do believe that, you know, the the surprise to the upside that we've seen energy storage. It's something I've been thinking about and talking about for probably the last two years. I was probably a bit too early on the energy storage um I guess demand story, but I do feel like it's going to come through in 2026. Um Mins is obviously the way to play. It's a little bit more diluted than it was given the deal they've done with POSCO, but probably the one I continue to see and I'll rebang the table on this because I've banged the table a few times. It's is a lever, the merge say owner and pebb entity. I think that's probably still underappreciated by the market. I don't think there's as many sellite covering it as there could be. It's just under a billion cap at the moment or a billion EV. It's probably got a third or sorry, a quarter of the production of what Pilra does and trades about, you know, onetenth of the EV of what Pilra does. It's currently net cash. It's in a pretty envable position because it's just gone above their break even position. Brownfield expansion at NAL green field opportunities with um Molin Aya and Carolina. And I see it as really well placed. I could even throw in the pun that it's leveraged to the listing price if that's >> No, that's not that's not allowed. Uh, >> it's bad. >> That was worse than my um Anthony Havalar. >> Oh, I know. Yeah, I've had a few of those. >> Yeah. Yeah. Uh, okay. So, what about the uh the the uh the the worst performing commod? >> Uh, well, this is this is tough for a commodity bull like myself. Um, I do have some friends that work in iron ore and they have been quite upset that everyone beats on iron ore and it is a ve very easy choice with simu ramping up, but I I'll I won't choose iron ore. I think last year was again was an absolute gimme and I think it said aluminina and what aluminina's half since we we recorded the episode so I was happy to call that one well um I'll go with another niche commodity and this time I'll say zinc now it's not a commodity I've done a heap of work on but close to$150 I'd say the zinc price is pretty elevated I would say there's been a fair few mines that have come on stream in 2024 that will continue to ramp up over 2026 um demand is usually pretty muted usually grows at 1 to 2% peranom and Another fun fact about zinc is that about 30% of zinc production is associated with silver and lead. And obviously with silver hitting all-time highs, um you know, silver's going to provide a burn for most zinc mines. And you're not necessarily going to be switching off those zinc mines, which you possibly should from a supply situation because you're going to want those zinc those silver credits. So that's my I guess niche commodity to underperform next year. >> First time things got to mention. There we go. Kev, as always, great to chat. You've given us a a whole host of ideas in there that I'm sure the money miners will love. So, thank you. >> Cheers again, boys. Thanks for having me on. Merry Christmas. >> Sammy Barish in the studio. Thanks for joining us, mate. >> A pleasure to be here. Always happy to come down and have a chat to you guys. >> We are looking forward to hearing your predictions for for 2026. Sammy, so 2025 was a big year, outstanding returns for the fund, but as you sort of said just before, January 1, the scoreboard is zero again. So, what is the highest conviction prediction for 2026? You had to scratch my head on this one a bit because you've got, you know, a bucket of decent ideas, but trying to pick one from the pack is always difficult to do. But I think um I think I'll pick one that a lot of people would have heard of, but probably not in a in a more their older context than what they're doing next. And that's Mount Gibson Iron. So used to ding >> ding. Y >> used to be a an iron ore producer, but um they're all finished up there at Cooland Island. um a bit unceremonious because the pit collapsed again. So that brought knocked about 18 months off the end of the mine life unfortunately. >> But um what is not widely known is the um or widely acknowledged is that they actually have their foot on 50% of the Tanami gold project. So they they're turning into a gold company and um you know that uh that project had a updated resource announced the other day. Um they've got 2.8 8 million ounces at about um just under three grams a ton. So, you know, back of the envelope type numbers and this is very preliminary early days, but they've got a line of sight of a so line of sight on a project that could do, you know, 150 to 200,000 ounces perom there for for 10 years plus. And um if you back out the the cash um from Mount Gibson's market cap also, you know, you adjust the fact there's 50 million to go out to pay for their share of Tenemi once that approved. Plus, they've got some rehab and and um repair to do it at Cooland Island. You know, the enterprise value of the company at the moment is on a six is about $60 million on a postacquisition basis. So, you know, that plus the actual, you know, Tanami Resources, which is still listed, is about $120 million for, you know, for for companies which combined would have, you know, circa 150 to 200,000 ounces of production in Australia. Reasonably low cost. Yeah, I think it's um it looks pretty reasonable and um you know, obviously these guys have got lots of cash, so they probably don't need uh you know, don't need to raise any equity to to do it. So, um that's the one. >> Great. Sammy, what about the uh most non-conensus prediction? scratch my head around about that one a bit as well. I think I'll um I think I might have to go down the currency path because you know when you're modeling these things the currency is just as important as your commodity price. But looking at the outlook for interest rates um in the US versus Australia, I reckon that the Aussie dollar could get to sort of 75 over the course of calendar 26 which is um you know probably not that there's a bit of a headwind I suppose for earnings for producing uh for commodity companies but at the same time if the Aussie dollar is going up means the US dollar is going down which probably means commodity prices are going up. So could be a zero sum game but um I don't think we're going to get any more rate cuts for the next 12 months. I reckon the RBA is probably done. Um Michelle Bulock there, she's uh she's not one for turning that woman. She knows exactly what she's doing and um if she thinks inflation's too high, there's some problems there. I don't think there's any more cuts coming, which is um unfortunate, but it is what it is. Whereas I think there probably are, you know, another cut or two to come in the US. So um you know, we should see the Aussie dollar rise as a result. >> Yeah, that's a good good shout there, Sammy. And how about the best performing commodity? I'm going to have to go with uranium on this one. And the reason for that is, you know, there's a fundamental story which you guys have discussed, you know, at length and your listeners would be should be well across. But I suspect that uranium might be the next metal the US um underwrites the price of bas like they've done with rare earths. um you know nuclear is central to their um national security, energy security, uh AI growth ambitions. Um so I wouldn't be surprised if if uranium is the next um metal to get basically underwritten by the US government and you know we should see something similar to what we saw in rare earths if that was to um transpire and if I'm wrong if that doesn't happen well the fundamentals I still think look look reasonably good. when we do the scores in a year's time, should we look at spot or term? >> Uh, stick with spot, you know, and everybody says, "Oh, there's no volume traded there." But, you know, whatever. The equities move on spot, you know. So, that's that's um, you know, that's important. >> Good stuff. >> And, uh, the flip side of that one, worst performer. >> Worst performer. Uh, I think last year I said I said nickel, which, you know, wasn't, you know, the price had already fallen, so it wasn't necessarily because I was bearish. I just thought everything else was probably going to do better. So, for the same on the same rationale, I'm probably going to go with uh oil, which pretty beaten up where it is. But, um, China's been stockpiling maybe an extra million barrels a day, over and above what they actually need or use. So, they've been building stockpiles for a while. assuming those stock piles start to hit tank tops or cabin tops wherever they're sticking this stuff. Um, you know, that's a lot of buying to uh come out of the market. And I think the um the price will struggle thereafter. And in any which case, you know, I think that, you know, between OPEC sort of fighting for market share and and whatnot, I I just don't see much upside to it um to the oil price, even though arguably it's supported by the cost curve to below, but I think um there should be other metals that do a bit better or other commodities that do a bit better. >> Brilliant, Sammy. We uh love your predictions and look forward to doing it again with you next year. >> Let's hope I'm right. Sam plays of Olive Resource Capital. Thank you very much for joining us. We're excited to hear your predictions for the upcoming year. Sam, what have you got as your most or your highest conviction rather prediction for the year? >> Yeah, so I actually have a name specifically. It's a private company today. We're going to list this company in March, April period. >> And um you you you're going to hear about this. Um it's the largest exploration package in Uruguay, country that's not very well known. The company is called Sun Valley Minerals. And this effectively a mirror image of the geology in Namibia um which holds many multi-million deposits. We think we have something that could potentially target those type of deposits. And so far the team has done an exceptional job amassing the best parcels of land along the country. Uh proving that we have visible golden surface. Uh trenchings confirm all of that and the company's getting ready for its maid and drill program in Q1 of 2026 right on time for the listing. So, I think this is going to be one of the most exciting stories in the market for next year. >> Appreciate the uh the pick, Sam. How about your most non-conensus prediction? >> I think my most I don't know if this is non-conensus, but um I actually think the global economy does well in 2026. Um people keep expecting a recession. Um I think if you look at the macro data globally, liquidity injections continue to be strong. uh fiscal monetary fiscal policy is going to be expansionary more than it has been this year. PMIs are starting to pick up. So I think we see sort of like a broadening of the economic momentum in 2026. >> Yeah. Yeah. I'd call that non-conensus. I think there's a lot of bearish sort of sentiment around where we are at least. How about the the commodity to benefit the most on the back of that stronger economic surrounding? Yeah, and I think that's exactly where this comes through is I think we see a major broadening of the uh sort of like commodity rally more into oil, which is I think my number one prediction for next year, but also into coal, maybe not so much iron or because of the supply fundamentals that we've seen this year, but I think we just see a big broadening into the industrial metals, coal, oil, energy as a whole, and uh you know, just everything that's directly exposed to expanding global economy. And the flip side, Sam, the worst performer, >> I'm going to go on a big limb here and I'm going to say silver. >> And the reason is as this kind of like expansion into all the other commodities takes place. I think gold starts being the leader and silver by definition being such a speculative market that's linked to the momentum in in gold. I think it may lose some of that energy and momentum. And if you look at the ratio of gold to silver which people talk about it's go to 100. If you look at the last since we have real tangible data uh it's kind of close to the medium to the median. So I think we are sort of already there the big part of the rally has happened and any weakness in gold will translate in stronger you know further downside in silver. >> Fantastic. That is yeah that's a bit off the beaten track that one. and we've got a lot more silver bulls that have perked up in the last couple weeks. So, looking forward to seeing how your bets fare over the coming year and thanks again for joining us. >> Thank you so much, >> Christopher Schmidt, Incat Capital. I've been trying to pin you down forever. You finally you finally accepted my invitation to participate in our fund manager predictions episode. I've got to ask the question, what is your highest conviction prediction for 2026? Um so I think for for 2026 I mean we we will see a year of phantom build out in the NI in the AI infrastructure. Um we see in the US um a planned um capex infrastructure for around 600 or 500 billion US dollars and then you have China with just like 50 to 100 billion for data centers and and grid connections and these hyperscalers uh like um Meta, Nvidia and and Google and Amazon they are just trying to build a narrative where they can justify by these massive expenditures and and we in incomat we don't really see the return on investment. Um because the problem is not the building of the data centers, it's really to get them onto the grid to connect them. So there's like massive lead times on transformers and grit connections. Um and this is where we will see just like a waste of money in the end in data centers, but they're not coming to the market. Um and this will certainly uh let's say question the AI business model in 2026 and we might see also a lot of funds flowing out of the sector because they realize there's an overspending. It's too expensive to to build all the the infrastructure and um yeah so this will certainly certainly one of our most non-conensus prediction in 2026 in our eyes. >> Beautiful. I hope some of that money finds its way towards the mining space. So, second question is what is going to be the the most non-conensus call that that you and the team have for the coming year. >> Um, I think it's it's related a little bit to the AI. Um, as you just said, you know, there will be some money flowing out of the tech industry or the tech sector into mining. Uh, we call it capital rotation. So we will see the money flowing into hard assets like mining, metals, oil and gas industry and um also into China. I still believe that uh Chinese companies uh are set up for like quite a big growth path uh in 2026 and 27 because the stimulus uh which was initiated two years ago is now finally hitting uh hitting the the income statements from the Chinese companies and the Chinese government really focused on like manufacturing local infrastructure and high-tech uh supply chains and to establish also new trade partners. And this will now finally end up and show up in the earnings. And the focus here is of course electric vehicles. I mean we see the success of BYD in Europe. Uh we just saw like the new Xiaomi electric vehicles uh being introduced to the European market. like they're so low cost uh produced extremely high quality and uh the the end consumer is looking for cheap electric vehicles with like a good range and good service and nobody is really interested in um let's say the more expensive high-end performance electric vehicles. So the Chinese um equity market certainly could be a very attractive value play in 2026 and 2027 >> and the the the best performing commodity. I mean, I'm not sure. Most people probably say lithium and and copper. Um, but for us, the big sleeper trade in 2026 is phosphate >> especially the ignous phosphate. Um, which is suitable for the battery grade um purified phosphoric acid. Um, I think the the impression in the in the resource sector is that phosphate is mostly agricultural product. um and really as a fertilizer. Um but if you look at the lithium iron phosphate batteries which are taking over now the electric vehicles, the large scale energy storage um and they are replacing the nickel manganesees cobalt batteries. I think that's not really understood. Everybody is focusing on lithium but no one is focusing on the P on the phosphate. Um and I think we will see a a quite high interest in in 2026 there. The issue with this uh commodity is that the ignous deposits are are quite rare. Yeah. And uh you have a lot of sentimentary phosphate. Um but it's mostly um dirty phosphate with heavy metals um u manganese and even some radioactivity and only 5% I think of the phosphate uh production currently for battery grade comes from ignous and there's certainly an interest in getting this high purity uh primary primary production for phosphate uh going forward China of course is dominating ing the market. Um they have restrictions on exporting the LFP technology uh offshore. So they they want to have the dominance. Uh the big car manufacturers are already using this battery technology. BYD, even Tesla, and then the big western companies like Stellantis, they are looking also, of course, getting into this battery technology because it's cheaper, it has a good range, it's more safe, and um you don't need a high performance NMC U batteries going forward. So, phosphate for us is the new lithium. Unfortunately, there's not many mining equities where you can play that game. Uh it's like a handful of companies. Uh I think there's like one company in Australia who does like direct or shipping to China. Um but otherwise a full integrated >> They went broke. >> They went broke. >> Yeah. No, they're they're gone. There's a there's a private one. Um Northwest Phosphate. Go John C. He's listening. >> Beautiful. >> Fully integrated one I think is certainly uh attractive. Fully integrated producer for battery grade. Yeah. >> Yeah. That's that's not a uh prediction we've had before, Christopher. And if you flip that one on its head, getting bearish now, what is going to be the worst performing commodity? >> I mean, if I'm bullish on phosphate and lithium, I mean, you should be bearish on nickel and cobalt on one side. Um, we know that the nickel market has been flooded by Indonesia for the last five years. Uh, and they have some some issues currently. uh they are red reducing the national production quotota. Uh they are enforcing more the environmental regulations in Indonesia because they had some you know tailing stamp issues there and so on. They still prohibit um deep sea tailings storage in Indonesia. So you would of course expect uh supply cut coming from Indonesia. But I don't believe that the Indonesian government will continue holding up these restrictions because they know they have the dominant position in the market through the nickel pig iron and the mixed hydroxide um precipitate production and they could change again like the supply relatively quickly. So even if Nicholas is bearish based on these restrictions in Indonesia, I think if they need need it, they could change it again. So I'm I think nickel will be still a tough play going forward. Uh since Indonesia can Yeah. can just flood the market again if they want to. Yeah. >> Brilliant. Christopher, I've um I've really enjoyed your contributions and I I hope you participate again next year. >> Yeah, of course. happy to participate and and hopefully the phosphate play works out next year. >> That was uh that was unreal. The first half of part one of our fund manager predictions for 2026. >> We've got so many more to go, don't we? >> We actually haven't even recorded the other ones yet. >> We haven't even recorded them, but they are coming through very soon. Money miners, >> a massive thank you to our wicked partners, Sanvic Ground Support, Intra Links, check them out. Focus, the platform by Marquee Techch. You should see it over my shoulder most times. We've also got a big thank you mate to Exceed Capital. And last but not least, Switch Technologies. Check out our local engineers right here in North Bridge, mate. >> Huroo, money. >> Huroo. Now remember, I'm an idiot. JD is an idiot. 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