GOLD & SILVER All-Time Highs — Easy Money Is Back!
Summary
Gold and silver are ripping to new all-time highs — and it’s not a coincidence. The Fed just cut rates again and quietly restarted …
Transcript
is the world's largest bank behind the silver breakout. Silver is trading over $64 an ounce as we record this. Gold is also only 10 bucks away from a new all-time high. Massive, massive moves in the precious metals. And uh is it just a new bank or is it just a bank actually repositioning and going massively long for the first time in a long time? Well, we'll get to the bottom of this during this weekly episode of the sore financially wrap-up. Really appreciate you joining us. My name is Kai Hoff and I'm the at JR Mining guy over on X and of course you're a host of this channel and I'm really looking forward to wrapping up the week with you here. We have two big topics prepared for you today. One, of course, we need to talk about the Fed uh the Fed meeting this week. We've got another 25 basis point cut, but also Jerome Powell opened the door to QE or not just open it, he ran through it. Uh $40 billion in uh in T bill purchases and we'll get to the bottom of that what that means. Is QE back? Is it really? Well, we'll get to it, but uh we'll we'll discuss also rate rate rate cut outlooks as well. What does the market expect and what what is the market doing as a response to the Fed meeting here on Wednesday? And then of course we'll break it down. Silver $64 and a quarter. Uh massive massive move the last 10 days here. And is it really JP Morgan, the world's largest bank that is behind the move in precious precious metals, silver in particular? We'll get to a bottom of it. There was an article that was on the economic times of India yesterday that caused an uproar in the silver space especially around social media and we'll see if if there's any truth to what is being claimed here. So stay tuned for that. But um let's take a look as always let's take a look at the calendar what kind of data was dumped on us this week. Um a couple things to point out. the Jolts job openings, of course. Um, we we've been talking about the employment market in the US for a while now, and we finally got some Jolts data, and it's the first time that they put out the the jobs report here for September and October in tandem. And let's take a quick look at it because the employment um is is the scapegoat for for the Fed for cutting rates and saying, well, there's lots going on in the on the employment side. rising unemployment of course and many under occurrence uh in in that space and I just spoke with Henrik Zeberg by the way we spent uh quite a bit of time during our conversation on the US employment uh market or job market and you should watch that coming out on Sunday uh it'll be really interesting he has some interesting points and he uses employment as a massive leading indicator for him that something bigger is looming here so um let's take a quick look at the Joel data here for October um job openings actually beating July high August expectations here a little bit. So maybe taking some of the pressure off the Fed theoretically theoretically because it didn't take any off because they still cut. Of course we all know the result of that. But we need to take a look at where um the job openings happened. Of course trade, transportation and utilities plus close to 240,000 jobs opened. Uh retail, wholesale trade was part of that. Um decline in professional business services to be expected. A lot of those jobs can be replaced with AI. And then not another surprise here, f federal government, of course, down 25,000 jobs as well. Uh leisure and hospitality. Well, it is uh summer is over. We don't need the the green keepers. A lot of uh um golf caddies or so. We don't need them anymore. So, that's just a seasonal adjustment, I would assume. Um I I kind of like the breakdown here in regions and the Northeast lost 35,000 jobs. Wonder if that was all in Washington in the Washington area or where the big government uh the headquarters are, of course. So, uh, so interesting data. I I keep saying like I'm missing sort of the point. I don't live in the US, but, uh, it feels to me that the employment market is being used as a scapegoat for the Fed to lower interest rates so that the US can refinance potentially at a cheaper rate. But, uh, because because 4.4 4.5% is not panic mode for me. In here in Europe, in Germany, we have 6.4% unemployment rate and it's not a topic of debate at all. It's it barely gets any mention. So, I'm trying to figure out where that panic is coming from. How bad is it really? And uh I keep looking at data like the job openings. Again, it's all official data, US labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, believe him or not, but that's what we're being given and that's what we have to look at, of course. So, don't crucify me. I'm just being I'm just working with what we're given. Uh the underlying trends are obviously or are are being are different and uh experienced very differently, of course, as well. So, let's let's take a look at the Fed. What what did the Fed do? They lowered interest rates by 25 points here in uh on on Wednesday. Jerome Powell came out, made some really interesting statements. Um in in in general, he mentioned AI, how that is increasing productivity. I haven't heard him really say anything about that in the past. So that was an interesting take. And uh the other big topic was the return of QE. They don't call it QE of course because that would upset the market tremendously. It is a disguise. It's very subtle. they call it it's non QE and I'm just trying to find a quote here for you um whether we are uh seeing QE and I've asked Karac about it and let's take a look at what Quark has to say about the Fed meeting and is QE back? Let me bring this here on the onto the the screen. So I asked Groc Groc is QE back Grock gave a really good overview. Well back in October we ended QT that was announced. Now December um the Fed cut another 25 basis points but they're starting with a 40 billion per month in purchases or reserve management purposes uh purchases starting with 40 billion per month in short-term treasury bills. We all know the US government the US Treasury is issuing a ton of treasur short-term treasuries short-term treasury bills here to refinance. It started with Janet Yellen. She was the one to kick it off. That's where the demand is. That's where we see a lot of churn and uh now the Fed is stepping in here as well. Is there potential weakness? Um we'll we'll have to see how the next uh um auctions go for the T- belts. But uh is this QE? Like what what's the what's the fallback? What's the fallout from this? So is QE back? Groc tells me no, it's not it's not the typical style of QE. Um it is uh more targeted. So current policy I I kind of like the table Croc gives you here. So traditional QE like we've seen in 2020, uh massive amounts of dollars, 120 billion and more uh in QE. That's three times as much as the Fed has now announced. Don't don't don't get me wrong, 40 billion is a lot of money, but in in the grand scheme of things, it's not that much. Um and it's going into short-term builds. So it's for stabilization and maintenance, no net growth, of course, that's uh you know, typical party line if if you want to. It really works well with the purple tie as well. But um inflation risk, that's one I was wondering. Okay. So, do we need to worry? Do do we jump into real assets? Do we need to protect ourselves here? Are we going to see runaway inflation again uh like we've seen during CO? And the answer is pretty much no. Um it's low technical, not stimulative. Also, I I mentioned it's only $40 billion. So, it might take a while to seep through the system until it reaches us. What what happens? Um so, um where where does the money go? Well, it goes to the banks, right? So, the the Fed is buying those T bills from the banks. the banks can shore up their reserves and uh might ease lending uh again as well. So the t the grip might not be as tight anymore. Maybe we'll get see some more mortgage lending happening. I don't see the mortgage rates coming down by the way. So that's uh that's different. But maybe monetary conditions will get looser again and there will be more liquidity back in the market. I think that's what they're trying to achieve here. It's all about liquidity of course. Um, so the other question I had of course for Croc. So Croc where where where does the the money come from for the T- bill purchases and this is my favorite answer. It is created out of thin air. How is that not inflationary? Yes, it's only $40 billion but uh it it ends up in the bank reserves. Well, there's $40 billion in treasury bills being bought and who's issuing those? Well, the government. And there's $40 billion that go into the bank reserves. So, it should be fairly neutral. But the Fed is still expanding their balance sheet and in in the end there should be some inflation pressure, meaning maybe it'll go up from 2.9 to 3.1 or something like that over time. But uh you can't tell me that this is not inflationary um at all. It is what we we've seen before, just not at that scale yet. And I'm not sure if we'll get back to that scale. I hope not because um it is kind of scary what we've seen back then, but it was necessary. And maybe that's why the precious metals markets are reacting the way they are. uh the main markets as well, by the way. So, we'll take a closer look at let me get this up here. Um let me get this trading view here. Let's let's take a look at the main markets. Well, it looks like the S&P 500 is back at an all-time high here at 6915 pre-market. I'm recording this about 30 minutes before market open. But, uh the market says like, well, free money is coming back. Easy money. Liquidity is floating back to the market. Let's buy risk assets. Let's go buy some more stocks. Um even Bitcoin. I don't have a Bitcoin chart here. Uh ticked up a little bit. I think we're at 93,000 on the Bitcoin uh per per Bitcoin. Let me just take a quick look and confirm here before I tell you anything that's off. Yeah, 92,300 uh for the price of Bitcoin coming down just a little bit this morning, but uh it bounced back uh after the the Fed announcement of course on Wednesday. Um, but you can see the mut it's a bit of a muted reaction, but there is there was a reaction to the no no QE uh by Jerome Powell and uh gold and silver of course have been absolutely ripping. Um, and as I said, gold is close to a new all-time high. Let's share this tab. Let's take a quick look at it. 4340. We're $10 away from a new all-time high. It is getting close. And silver at 6438. Look at this chart. It just goes straight up. And uh we'll we'll get to the bottom of this. What is driving this? Uh there's a rumor that got floated around yesterday and uh on the silver side and by the silver bugs of course here on X and many others. Let me show you um the silver post by silver trade which got a lot of attention. Let's take a look here. So silver trade at silver trade um was the original post. He pinned it about 22 hours ago. JP Morgan sells entire 200 million ounce silver short position and flips long 750 million ounces. So, does that mean they bought 950 million ounces? Like doing rough math here. No, it doesn't. Um, they they closed their short position. Um, and let me get to this though, cuz the the this post is quoting a shocking econ economic times report. And this is where it gets interesting. Okay. Um, I was trying to find that report. I couldn't. Maybe I'm inept. Um, you know, that that can happen. You know, I'm just human as well. and uh you know 41 years old. So you know maybe me and technology don't get along too well but I couldn't find it. What I did find was this 404 error. That's when I went to the economic times website and I was like hey where is this article? I typed it in Google and this is where I ended. Seems like they pulled the article. Why was it inaccurate? Was something wrong? Was it planted? Um I'm not accusing anybody of anything but uh this is weird. Is this the next level silver squeeze? If it was very very smart move there, Hexlax, you know, um absolutely fantastic move. Uh cuz it uh it's interesting cuz I had it up and uh I was looking at some Jet GPT stuff and just trying to find the source of it. Is this real? Like how can we prove this? And you know, looking at this, it's like, okay, so where where is that coming from? And I'm just going to show you something that Don Durret has done. Um he he he talked with Croc again trying to f get to the bottom of this and let me share his um it's sort of a Grock chat that he shared and he was talking about do you think JP Morgan closed their silver short position? My understanding is there's no way to know really and he's got a point. So Grock starts to answer yes based on recent market reports. But if you start looking and there was a section in here um where Grock and the other AI as well starts quoting the Economic Times and even silver trade um the post I just showed you on here. There we go. Um Economic Times, silver focused outlets, Wall Street Bets. So are those reliable sources? And I I looked um I looked one thing up here and I was trying to figure out um who can so this is the economic times one sorry just sharing that with you real quick as well but who can actually post on the economic times of India and it's anyone with expertise and compelling original insights there is a bit of a filter and uh through a B2B platform so I'm not uh I wouldn't take it out of context that there might have been somebody that smuggled that contact in content in there without proper verification, right? Um why would why else would that article have been pulled? Um it uh it doesn't make a whole lot of sense, right? At least to me. Let's get back to uh the gro chat here. Dave Dond Durant. Um but by the way, just quick comment on Dond Durret. He usually gold and silver prices or lot lot higher gold and silver prices to justify 10x and 10bagger um uh recommendations for some stocks. and he thinks a lot of stocks should be trading a lot higher given the fact that silver will go to $100 or gold will go to $10,000 and I'm making these price targets up by the way but um that's where I have a differing opinion. I think the projects need to have merit first. It can't just be all momentum and alpha driven. So please take take everything of that with a grain of salt. Just a word of caution. Of course we're in a really high price environment and uh a lot a lot of money is to be made here. Um so coming back to JP Morgan though. So, did they buy 200 million ounces? Did they unwind their paper short? And there there is a bit of an insight here that stuff has happened between the time frame of June and October. Um, we're still waiting for some of the ComX data of course and the COT reports that are now being delayed which is has has a big impact which creates some uncertainty. But even Groc and we we can discuss this. It's echoed in the economic times, silver trade and national gold consultants. We just checked the economic times article doesn't exist anymore. Silver Trade is quoting the Economic Times article and I need to take a look at National Gold Consultants, but that sounds like a Trump and faked up name. We'll check that in a minute or after this convers after this interview. And even Arcadia Economics, we can understand like they're all silver bucks, right? So, um, check your sources. Really, really check them. Um, so are they claiming that JP Morgan now holds 750 million ounces of physical silver? And it's like, no, oh, no, no, no. So, there that's the interesting part. So while JP Morgan might have bought some silver and flipped from short to long, most of the most of the U silver actually held is held by um ETF holders, their clients. U maybe their net long 100 million, 200 million ounces, but that's it. So here's here's a nice breakdown. I kind of like how Grock prepares tables. Um, so Comx vaults that are managed by JP Morgan 130 to 180 million ETFs 350 million private personal clients off exchange that are not registered. That's 300 million. So roughly 750 million u million ounces that sort of adds up. It's not like JP Morgan went into the market and bought silver like there is no tomorrow, right? So please keep that in mind. We need to take a look at that. and uh Jeff Christian of the CPM group, a bit of a a controversial character in in the in the industry because the silver bugs have a have a beef with him because he's too realistic. Uh he just looks at proper data and uh um so he he's saying that silver's breakout wasn't industry panic buying, which I pro which I agree with. It makes sense. uh because if you're an industry user, you have long-term contracts, you might have secured access to silver a long time ago because that trend that that uptrend that we've seen here um in the silver price has been, you know, has been visible for a while. Take a look at this chart. If you're asleep here at $38, $37 and you don't see this uptrend happening, you shouldn't be in the silver space in the first place. And the trader, you might have to replace your traders um that you work with, right? So, it's not an industrydriven um scenario that we're seeing here that is pushing silver higher. It is really um speculative driven momentum. So, you got to be careful because speculative also means it can come down just as quickly, especially now that we're gapping up so much higher. So, I'm I'm not telling you to sell anything. This is not financial advice, but I'm telling you to be cautious um when it comes to that. Um the speed of course is is absolutely phenomenal that we've seen here. Silver silver moved. Let's bring that chart back up here on my screen as well. If you look at the move here from $50 to $64 since the end of November or November 21st, um I haven't seen anything like this in my 15 16 year career in the precious metals in the mining space. That is uh unheard of. I have no idea where this trend is going to end. We had um Gareth Soloway on and he drew a nice channel chart and I think we might have broken out of that channel. Uh, and if that has happened, then the move, you know, we could be running to $70 rather quickly. Uh, Keith Newire on my program said, "Well, $100 seems even realistic." Now, not sure how that quick how quickly that is going to happen, but maybe at the end of 2026, your guess is as good as mine to be honest, cuz momentum chases momentum. Now, do we see some year-end buying as uh do the generalists need to show, hey, I own silver or maybe I own the silver ETF that owns it. So we maybe we'll see some um some chasing happening here as well. Maybe pushing it even a little higher from here. One thing I'm quite happy about that at our in our fund the Kamaxus or the the Kamaxus resource fund we've heavily positioned uh into silver just last week sort of following also Michael Oliver's breakout call and we looked at it like this makes a whole lot of sense. So we positioned uh heavily in the biggest positions in our fund are in silver. Uh we own a first majestic pang global uh sorry not pan global paname silver um uh here let's take a look uh can you see this? Yeah, you can. Those are like the biggest position the biggest gainers here yesterday. Silver First Majestic. Uh there's an AYA in there. Those funds like by the way, this is not a secret what I'm showing you here. Uh the positions you can just look uh read our newsletter on the website. So I'm not giving you anything away. And by the way, everything that we own in here is not an investment advice or anything to so or buy or sell recommendation, right? I'm just showing you what we're doing. And Pan-American Silver, take a look at this chart. Um take a look at the first majestic chart. Do you think that's the end of it? Q4 cash flow numbers are going to be absolutely bonkers. Absolutely ridiculous. Same for the gold miners, by the way. Um we're about $800 higher. No, probably on average um five to six, maybe even $700 higher per average ounce of gold sold this quarter than we were in Q3. Absolutely ridiculous. So, take a closer look. Numon just broke out over $100 I saw in pre-market trading. Yes, 10213. Um so, massive massive move here in in the miners. I can't wait to see the Q3, the Q4 numbers. I'm so excited for for early February already to see those numbers come in. Um, fantastic. Um, all the stocks are trading higher, um, pre-market. So, uh, tough to not to get tough not to get excited. So, those are those. So, that's silver. Um, I shared my concerns with you. Let's take a quick look at gold um, as well because there got one more piece of information I do want to share with you. Um I told you last week or two weeks ago that Tether is the new buyer of course in the gold market. They're buying more gold than any of the central banks. And uh looking at this uh they hosted a conference call together with Canacord this week. Unfortunately I couldn't participate. I'm trying to get a recording of it so I can share some of the snippets. But one thing that was uh I was told is that tether plant or is now buying three tons of gold per week. That's up from two tons. They already own 116 tons officially. That's probably over 120 tons in total. That is massive. That's three tons a week. That's 12 tons a month. That is 36 tons a quarter. That's the biggest gold buyer in the world right now is Tether. They're using proceeds from their T- bill or treasury bill or T-bond uh stable coins. They're using the interest rate that they're getting paid to buy real assets, farmland, gold, and they're buying into mining companies as well. Super exciting. Uh I want really wanted to share that with you. Now um couple things I left out. Um but uh you know on back back on the Fed real quick, we did have the dot plot. We did have the descent here um by by some of the the the Fed governors. Um maybe I'll bring that up real quick because I forgot to mention it earlier. I do apologize. And um I just want to show you that real quick that the dot plot and I do have one question though about the dot plot and maybe some of you can explain it to me. I couldn't find a quick answer for it. Um this is the September dot plot that we've been served here on September 17th. Um we we all can see here um uh let's share this one. Yeah, we can all see here Steve Marin was the loan the lone wolf wanting advocating for below 3% uh interest rates um when the the rest here now for 2026 three and four uh sorry three and two uh lower. Let's take a look at the forecasts for the dot plot now for the rest of 2025. Of course, there's no more uh no more meeting this year, so that's kind of pointless. I think that's just where we're at. Um how do I share this again? Let's go do this. There we go. Um so we can see the dot plot. We can still see Steve Mirror in here uh down at the bottom, but this has changed dramatically. Um people have moved up. So I think the Fed is not going to cut uh this session uh or the next session, sorry, in January. Let me uh show you this here real quick as well. a Fed watch. Um now 78% think that we're going to stay no more cut in January and that's what Jerome Powell says like well we're in a comfortable position right now to watch the economic data develop and come in. Um the market seems to agree 78%. Let's take a look at March 18th meeting. Another 50% think that we're still going to stay and not cut in March. Let's see at the end of April. Still 39% 40 exactly 40% think uh we're not going to cut in April either. So the road rate cut expectations are down to one. Just a week ago it was three and I think um given that backdrop it is quite phenomenal that gold and silver are moving the way they are. Um let's take a quick look at the dollar. It has retreated a little bit. Uh easy money of course is never good for for a currency but uh it's still a higher interest rate than you probably get anywhere else in the world. So that is still of interest. Um the bond market, the yield, the bond yields are moving up. People are getting out of bonds. Are they going back into risk assets? What are they chasing here? What are we seeing? Um the bond market obviously doesn't follow the Fed and things that maybe rates are too low even. Um maybe they want to see higher rates so they can achieve more yield. Uh bond vigilantes. We'll see what they say. And by the way, while I'm recording this, silver is making new highs, high after high after high. 6447. Tremendous. Absolutely tremendous. really exciting to go into the weekend with this chart. Uh I'm going to leave you with that and uh if we don't see each other again and if you decide not to watch any of my other episodes here this week or next week, I want to wish you a merry Christmas, happy holidays, enjoy the time with the family. It has been great working and seeing you and appreciate your support and put some comments down below. How do you see things shaking out? Is Kiwi Kiwi or is nonwe? Um that's just a weird thing to say actually if you say it a few times be uh back toback. So really appreciate your support. Thanks so much for watching. Leave a comment if you leave a like if you like this type of episode, if it is helpful to you. Um we are trying to be critical. We're trying to understand what is happening, what is shaping markets. By the way, our unit discussion last week got a lot of feedback. Um so be wary out there. Be careful and uh good luck out there. It's uh it's fun to be an investor in the precious metals right now. Take care and have a great great weekend.
GOLD & SILVER All-Time Highs — Easy Money Is Back!
Summary
Gold and silver are ripping to new all-time highs — and it’s not a coincidence. The Fed just cut rates again and quietly restarted …Transcript
is the world's largest bank behind the silver breakout. Silver is trading over $64 an ounce as we record this. Gold is also only 10 bucks away from a new all-time high. Massive, massive moves in the precious metals. And uh is it just a new bank or is it just a bank actually repositioning and going massively long for the first time in a long time? Well, we'll get to the bottom of this during this weekly episode of the sore financially wrap-up. Really appreciate you joining us. My name is Kai Hoff and I'm the at JR Mining guy over on X and of course you're a host of this channel and I'm really looking forward to wrapping up the week with you here. We have two big topics prepared for you today. One, of course, we need to talk about the Fed uh the Fed meeting this week. We've got another 25 basis point cut, but also Jerome Powell opened the door to QE or not just open it, he ran through it. Uh $40 billion in uh in T bill purchases and we'll get to the bottom of that what that means. Is QE back? Is it really? Well, we'll get to it, but uh we'll we'll discuss also rate rate rate cut outlooks as well. What does the market expect and what what is the market doing as a response to the Fed meeting here on Wednesday? And then of course we'll break it down. Silver $64 and a quarter. Uh massive massive move the last 10 days here. And is it really JP Morgan, the world's largest bank that is behind the move in precious precious metals, silver in particular? We'll get to a bottom of it. There was an article that was on the economic times of India yesterday that caused an uproar in the silver space especially around social media and we'll see if if there's any truth to what is being claimed here. So stay tuned for that. But um let's take a look as always let's take a look at the calendar what kind of data was dumped on us this week. Um a couple things to point out. the Jolts job openings, of course. Um, we we've been talking about the employment market in the US for a while now, and we finally got some Jolts data, and it's the first time that they put out the the jobs report here for September and October in tandem. And let's take a quick look at it because the employment um is is the scapegoat for for the Fed for cutting rates and saying, well, there's lots going on in the on the employment side. rising unemployment of course and many under occurrence uh in in that space and I just spoke with Henrik Zeberg by the way we spent uh quite a bit of time during our conversation on the US employment uh market or job market and you should watch that coming out on Sunday uh it'll be really interesting he has some interesting points and he uses employment as a massive leading indicator for him that something bigger is looming here so um let's take a quick look at the Joel data here for October um job openings actually beating July high August expectations here a little bit. So maybe taking some of the pressure off the Fed theoretically theoretically because it didn't take any off because they still cut. Of course we all know the result of that. But we need to take a look at where um the job openings happened. Of course trade, transportation and utilities plus close to 240,000 jobs opened. Uh retail, wholesale trade was part of that. Um decline in professional business services to be expected. A lot of those jobs can be replaced with AI. And then not another surprise here, f federal government, of course, down 25,000 jobs as well. Uh leisure and hospitality. Well, it is uh summer is over. We don't need the the green keepers. A lot of uh um golf caddies or so. We don't need them anymore. So, that's just a seasonal adjustment, I would assume. Um I I kind of like the breakdown here in regions and the Northeast lost 35,000 jobs. Wonder if that was all in Washington in the Washington area or where the big government uh the headquarters are, of course. So, uh, so interesting data. I I keep saying like I'm missing sort of the point. I don't live in the US, but, uh, it feels to me that the employment market is being used as a scapegoat for the Fed to lower interest rates so that the US can refinance potentially at a cheaper rate. But, uh, because because 4.4 4.5% is not panic mode for me. In here in Europe, in Germany, we have 6.4% unemployment rate and it's not a topic of debate at all. It's it barely gets any mention. So, I'm trying to figure out where that panic is coming from. How bad is it really? And uh I keep looking at data like the job openings. Again, it's all official data, US labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, believe him or not, but that's what we're being given and that's what we have to look at, of course. So, don't crucify me. I'm just being I'm just working with what we're given. Uh the underlying trends are obviously or are are being are different and uh experienced very differently, of course, as well. So, let's let's take a look at the Fed. What what did the Fed do? They lowered interest rates by 25 points here in uh on on Wednesday. Jerome Powell came out, made some really interesting statements. Um in in in general, he mentioned AI, how that is increasing productivity. I haven't heard him really say anything about that in the past. So that was an interesting take. And uh the other big topic was the return of QE. They don't call it QE of course because that would upset the market tremendously. It is a disguise. It's very subtle. they call it it's non QE and I'm just trying to find a quote here for you um whether we are uh seeing QE and I've asked Karac about it and let's take a look at what Quark has to say about the Fed meeting and is QE back? Let me bring this here on the onto the the screen. So I asked Groc Groc is QE back Grock gave a really good overview. Well back in October we ended QT that was announced. Now December um the Fed cut another 25 basis points but they're starting with a 40 billion per month in purchases or reserve management purposes uh purchases starting with 40 billion per month in short-term treasury bills. We all know the US government the US Treasury is issuing a ton of treasur short-term treasuries short-term treasury bills here to refinance. It started with Janet Yellen. She was the one to kick it off. That's where the demand is. That's where we see a lot of churn and uh now the Fed is stepping in here as well. Is there potential weakness? Um we'll we'll have to see how the next uh um auctions go for the T- belts. But uh is this QE? Like what what's the what's the fallback? What's the fallout from this? So is QE back? Groc tells me no, it's not it's not the typical style of QE. Um it is uh more targeted. So current policy I I kind of like the table Croc gives you here. So traditional QE like we've seen in 2020, uh massive amounts of dollars, 120 billion and more uh in QE. That's three times as much as the Fed has now announced. Don't don't don't get me wrong, 40 billion is a lot of money, but in in the grand scheme of things, it's not that much. Um and it's going into short-term builds. So it's for stabilization and maintenance, no net growth, of course, that's uh you know, typical party line if if you want to. It really works well with the purple tie as well. But um inflation risk, that's one I was wondering. Okay. So, do we need to worry? Do do we jump into real assets? Do we need to protect ourselves here? Are we going to see runaway inflation again uh like we've seen during CO? And the answer is pretty much no. Um it's low technical, not stimulative. Also, I I mentioned it's only $40 billion. So, it might take a while to seep through the system until it reaches us. What what happens? Um so, um where where does the money go? Well, it goes to the banks, right? So, the the Fed is buying those T bills from the banks. the banks can shore up their reserves and uh might ease lending uh again as well. So the t the grip might not be as tight anymore. Maybe we'll get see some more mortgage lending happening. I don't see the mortgage rates coming down by the way. So that's uh that's different. But maybe monetary conditions will get looser again and there will be more liquidity back in the market. I think that's what they're trying to achieve here. It's all about liquidity of course. Um, so the other question I had of course for Croc. So Croc where where where does the the money come from for the T- bill purchases and this is my favorite answer. It is created out of thin air. How is that not inflationary? Yes, it's only $40 billion but uh it it ends up in the bank reserves. Well, there's $40 billion in treasury bills being bought and who's issuing those? Well, the government. And there's $40 billion that go into the bank reserves. So, it should be fairly neutral. But the Fed is still expanding their balance sheet and in in the end there should be some inflation pressure, meaning maybe it'll go up from 2.9 to 3.1 or something like that over time. But uh you can't tell me that this is not inflationary um at all. It is what we we've seen before, just not at that scale yet. And I'm not sure if we'll get back to that scale. I hope not because um it is kind of scary what we've seen back then, but it was necessary. And maybe that's why the precious metals markets are reacting the way they are. uh the main markets as well, by the way. So, we'll take a closer look at let me get this up here. Um let me get this trading view here. Let's let's take a look at the main markets. Well, it looks like the S&P 500 is back at an all-time high here at 6915 pre-market. I'm recording this about 30 minutes before market open. But, uh the market says like, well, free money is coming back. Easy money. Liquidity is floating back to the market. Let's buy risk assets. Let's go buy some more stocks. Um even Bitcoin. I don't have a Bitcoin chart here. Uh ticked up a little bit. I think we're at 93,000 on the Bitcoin uh per per Bitcoin. Let me just take a quick look and confirm here before I tell you anything that's off. Yeah, 92,300 uh for the price of Bitcoin coming down just a little bit this morning, but uh it bounced back uh after the the Fed announcement of course on Wednesday. Um, but you can see the mut it's a bit of a muted reaction, but there is there was a reaction to the no no QE uh by Jerome Powell and uh gold and silver of course have been absolutely ripping. Um, and as I said, gold is close to a new all-time high. Let's share this tab. Let's take a quick look at it. 4340. We're $10 away from a new all-time high. It is getting close. And silver at 6438. Look at this chart. It just goes straight up. And uh we'll we'll get to the bottom of this. What is driving this? Uh there's a rumor that got floated around yesterday and uh on the silver side and by the silver bugs of course here on X and many others. Let me show you um the silver post by silver trade which got a lot of attention. Let's take a look here. So silver trade at silver trade um was the original post. He pinned it about 22 hours ago. JP Morgan sells entire 200 million ounce silver short position and flips long 750 million ounces. So, does that mean they bought 950 million ounces? Like doing rough math here. No, it doesn't. Um, they they closed their short position. Um, and let me get to this though, cuz the the this post is quoting a shocking econ economic times report. And this is where it gets interesting. Okay. Um, I was trying to find that report. I couldn't. Maybe I'm inept. Um, you know, that that can happen. You know, I'm just human as well. and uh you know 41 years old. So you know maybe me and technology don't get along too well but I couldn't find it. What I did find was this 404 error. That's when I went to the economic times website and I was like hey where is this article? I typed it in Google and this is where I ended. Seems like they pulled the article. Why was it inaccurate? Was something wrong? Was it planted? Um I'm not accusing anybody of anything but uh this is weird. Is this the next level silver squeeze? If it was very very smart move there, Hexlax, you know, um absolutely fantastic move. Uh cuz it uh it's interesting cuz I had it up and uh I was looking at some Jet GPT stuff and just trying to find the source of it. Is this real? Like how can we prove this? And you know, looking at this, it's like, okay, so where where is that coming from? And I'm just going to show you something that Don Durret has done. Um he he he talked with Croc again trying to f get to the bottom of this and let me share his um it's sort of a Grock chat that he shared and he was talking about do you think JP Morgan closed their silver short position? My understanding is there's no way to know really and he's got a point. So Grock starts to answer yes based on recent market reports. But if you start looking and there was a section in here um where Grock and the other AI as well starts quoting the Economic Times and even silver trade um the post I just showed you on here. There we go. Um Economic Times, silver focused outlets, Wall Street Bets. So are those reliable sources? And I I looked um I looked one thing up here and I was trying to figure out um who can so this is the economic times one sorry just sharing that with you real quick as well but who can actually post on the economic times of India and it's anyone with expertise and compelling original insights there is a bit of a filter and uh through a B2B platform so I'm not uh I wouldn't take it out of context that there might have been somebody that smuggled that contact in content in there without proper verification, right? Um why would why else would that article have been pulled? Um it uh it doesn't make a whole lot of sense, right? At least to me. Let's get back to uh the gro chat here. Dave Dond Durant. Um but by the way, just quick comment on Dond Durret. He usually gold and silver prices or lot lot higher gold and silver prices to justify 10x and 10bagger um uh recommendations for some stocks. and he thinks a lot of stocks should be trading a lot higher given the fact that silver will go to $100 or gold will go to $10,000 and I'm making these price targets up by the way but um that's where I have a differing opinion. I think the projects need to have merit first. It can't just be all momentum and alpha driven. So please take take everything of that with a grain of salt. Just a word of caution. Of course we're in a really high price environment and uh a lot a lot of money is to be made here. Um so coming back to JP Morgan though. So, did they buy 200 million ounces? Did they unwind their paper short? And there there is a bit of an insight here that stuff has happened between the time frame of June and October. Um, we're still waiting for some of the ComX data of course and the COT reports that are now being delayed which is has has a big impact which creates some uncertainty. But even Groc and we we can discuss this. It's echoed in the economic times, silver trade and national gold consultants. We just checked the economic times article doesn't exist anymore. Silver Trade is quoting the Economic Times article and I need to take a look at National Gold Consultants, but that sounds like a Trump and faked up name. We'll check that in a minute or after this convers after this interview. And even Arcadia Economics, we can understand like they're all silver bucks, right? So, um, check your sources. Really, really check them. Um, so are they claiming that JP Morgan now holds 750 million ounces of physical silver? And it's like, no, oh, no, no, no. So, there that's the interesting part. So while JP Morgan might have bought some silver and flipped from short to long, most of the most of the U silver actually held is held by um ETF holders, their clients. U maybe their net long 100 million, 200 million ounces, but that's it. So here's here's a nice breakdown. I kind of like how Grock prepares tables. Um, so Comx vaults that are managed by JP Morgan 130 to 180 million ETFs 350 million private personal clients off exchange that are not registered. That's 300 million. So roughly 750 million u million ounces that sort of adds up. It's not like JP Morgan went into the market and bought silver like there is no tomorrow, right? So please keep that in mind. We need to take a look at that. and uh Jeff Christian of the CPM group, a bit of a a controversial character in in the in the industry because the silver bugs have a have a beef with him because he's too realistic. Uh he just looks at proper data and uh um so he he's saying that silver's breakout wasn't industry panic buying, which I pro which I agree with. It makes sense. uh because if you're an industry user, you have long-term contracts, you might have secured access to silver a long time ago because that trend that that uptrend that we've seen here um in the silver price has been, you know, has been visible for a while. Take a look at this chart. If you're asleep here at $38, $37 and you don't see this uptrend happening, you shouldn't be in the silver space in the first place. And the trader, you might have to replace your traders um that you work with, right? So, it's not an industrydriven um scenario that we're seeing here that is pushing silver higher. It is really um speculative driven momentum. So, you got to be careful because speculative also means it can come down just as quickly, especially now that we're gapping up so much higher. So, I'm I'm not telling you to sell anything. This is not financial advice, but I'm telling you to be cautious um when it comes to that. Um the speed of course is is absolutely phenomenal that we've seen here. Silver silver moved. Let's bring that chart back up here on my screen as well. If you look at the move here from $50 to $64 since the end of November or November 21st, um I haven't seen anything like this in my 15 16 year career in the precious metals in the mining space. That is uh unheard of. I have no idea where this trend is going to end. We had um Gareth Soloway on and he drew a nice channel chart and I think we might have broken out of that channel. Uh, and if that has happened, then the move, you know, we could be running to $70 rather quickly. Uh, Keith Newire on my program said, "Well, $100 seems even realistic." Now, not sure how that quick how quickly that is going to happen, but maybe at the end of 2026, your guess is as good as mine to be honest, cuz momentum chases momentum. Now, do we see some year-end buying as uh do the generalists need to show, hey, I own silver or maybe I own the silver ETF that owns it. So we maybe we'll see some um some chasing happening here as well. Maybe pushing it even a little higher from here. One thing I'm quite happy about that at our in our fund the Kamaxus or the the Kamaxus resource fund we've heavily positioned uh into silver just last week sort of following also Michael Oliver's breakout call and we looked at it like this makes a whole lot of sense. So we positioned uh heavily in the biggest positions in our fund are in silver. Uh we own a first majestic pang global uh sorry not pan global paname silver um uh here let's take a look uh can you see this? Yeah, you can. Those are like the biggest position the biggest gainers here yesterday. Silver First Majestic. Uh there's an AYA in there. Those funds like by the way, this is not a secret what I'm showing you here. Uh the positions you can just look uh read our newsletter on the website. So I'm not giving you anything away. And by the way, everything that we own in here is not an investment advice or anything to so or buy or sell recommendation, right? I'm just showing you what we're doing. And Pan-American Silver, take a look at this chart. Um take a look at the first majestic chart. Do you think that's the end of it? Q4 cash flow numbers are going to be absolutely bonkers. Absolutely ridiculous. Same for the gold miners, by the way. Um we're about $800 higher. No, probably on average um five to six, maybe even $700 higher per average ounce of gold sold this quarter than we were in Q3. Absolutely ridiculous. So, take a closer look. Numon just broke out over $100 I saw in pre-market trading. Yes, 10213. Um so, massive massive move here in in the miners. I can't wait to see the Q3, the Q4 numbers. I'm so excited for for early February already to see those numbers come in. Um, fantastic. Um, all the stocks are trading higher, um, pre-market. So, uh, tough to not to get tough not to get excited. So, those are those. So, that's silver. Um, I shared my concerns with you. Let's take a quick look at gold um, as well because there got one more piece of information I do want to share with you. Um I told you last week or two weeks ago that Tether is the new buyer of course in the gold market. They're buying more gold than any of the central banks. And uh looking at this uh they hosted a conference call together with Canacord this week. Unfortunately I couldn't participate. I'm trying to get a recording of it so I can share some of the snippets. But one thing that was uh I was told is that tether plant or is now buying three tons of gold per week. That's up from two tons. They already own 116 tons officially. That's probably over 120 tons in total. That is massive. That's three tons a week. That's 12 tons a month. That is 36 tons a quarter. That's the biggest gold buyer in the world right now is Tether. They're using proceeds from their T- bill or treasury bill or T-bond uh stable coins. They're using the interest rate that they're getting paid to buy real assets, farmland, gold, and they're buying into mining companies as well. Super exciting. Uh I want really wanted to share that with you. Now um couple things I left out. Um but uh you know on back back on the Fed real quick, we did have the dot plot. We did have the descent here um by by some of the the the Fed governors. Um maybe I'll bring that up real quick because I forgot to mention it earlier. I do apologize. And um I just want to show you that real quick that the dot plot and I do have one question though about the dot plot and maybe some of you can explain it to me. I couldn't find a quick answer for it. Um this is the September dot plot that we've been served here on September 17th. Um we we all can see here um uh let's share this one. Yeah, we can all see here Steve Marin was the loan the lone wolf wanting advocating for below 3% uh interest rates um when the the rest here now for 2026 three and four uh sorry three and two uh lower. Let's take a look at the forecasts for the dot plot now for the rest of 2025. Of course, there's no more uh no more meeting this year, so that's kind of pointless. I think that's just where we're at. Um how do I share this again? Let's go do this. There we go. Um so we can see the dot plot. We can still see Steve Mirror in here uh down at the bottom, but this has changed dramatically. Um people have moved up. So I think the Fed is not going to cut uh this session uh or the next session, sorry, in January. Let me uh show you this here real quick as well. a Fed watch. Um now 78% think that we're going to stay no more cut in January and that's what Jerome Powell says like well we're in a comfortable position right now to watch the economic data develop and come in. Um the market seems to agree 78%. Let's take a look at March 18th meeting. Another 50% think that we're still going to stay and not cut in March. Let's see at the end of April. Still 39% 40 exactly 40% think uh we're not going to cut in April either. So the road rate cut expectations are down to one. Just a week ago it was three and I think um given that backdrop it is quite phenomenal that gold and silver are moving the way they are. Um let's take a quick look at the dollar. It has retreated a little bit. Uh easy money of course is never good for for a currency but uh it's still a higher interest rate than you probably get anywhere else in the world. So that is still of interest. Um the bond market, the yield, the bond yields are moving up. People are getting out of bonds. Are they going back into risk assets? What are they chasing here? What are we seeing? Um the bond market obviously doesn't follow the Fed and things that maybe rates are too low even. Um maybe they want to see higher rates so they can achieve more yield. Uh bond vigilantes. We'll see what they say. And by the way, while I'm recording this, silver is making new highs, high after high after high. 6447. Tremendous. Absolutely tremendous. really exciting to go into the weekend with this chart. Uh I'm going to leave you with that and uh if we don't see each other again and if you decide not to watch any of my other episodes here this week or next week, I want to wish you a merry Christmas, happy holidays, enjoy the time with the family. It has been great working and seeing you and appreciate your support and put some comments down below. How do you see things shaking out? Is Kiwi Kiwi or is nonwe? Um that's just a weird thing to say actually if you say it a few times be uh back toback. So really appreciate your support. Thanks so much for watching. Leave a comment if you leave a like if you like this type of episode, if it is helpful to you. Um we are trying to be critical. We're trying to understand what is happening, what is shaping markets. By the way, our unit discussion last week got a lot of feedback. Um so be wary out there. Be careful and uh good luck out there. It's uh it's fun to be an investor in the precious metals right now. Take care and have a great great weekend.