‘Hurricane Coming’: Brutal Warning For Stocks, Bitcoin, Gold In 2026 | Mike McGlone
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Start earning interest in gold: https://Monetary-Metals.com/Lin Mike McGlone, Senior Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg …
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I see a hurricane coming. There's I think Bitcoin the first stop is around 50,000. It would drop a zero. The first stop was around 50,000. I think it's going to 10,000. There's key reasons for that. When gold grabs alpha like it did this year, that's telling us something. That's a warning and I'm heating the warning. I'm fearful that we might have a bit of a crash in the stock market. Alls I know is a strategist is gold is way too stretched for me. Bitcoin's heading lower, so I'm pointing that out. Crude oil is heading lower, so I'm pointing that out. And to me, I'm just pointing out the the risks of the correction in the stock market. >> I'm very pleased to welcome back the show fan favorite Mike Mclo, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence. We'll be back and uh talking about uh the commodities outlook with Mike, but also his outlook for the macroeconomic landscape for 2026. Welcome back to the show, Mike. Good to see you. >> David, it's good to be back. I always appreciate talking to you and I appreciate the favorites from the fans. I appreciate your support. >> I appreciate your support. It's our last discussion for 2025. >> Looking forward to many more in 2026. But let's start let's just start with a recap of this year. What surprised you the most with how markets performed, how the economy performed? Uh how your forecasts uh panned out and then we'll dive into what happens next for the new year. >> The best thing I think as a trader, strategist, investors to focus on what you got wrong the most first. And I was wrong. I've been wrong about this persistent rally in the stock market. Um I think it's about time we're going to get a pretty significant reversion next year in stock market bond yields to go lower, but I've been wrong in those for a while. Bond yields ticking that way. So that's the number one thing I've been surprised about still. Um I was surprised at how high things like Bitcoin got but I was really um not I wouldn't say happy but um expected the those markets to turn lower and they have um expected crude oil to turn lower and and they have continued lower expected gold go higher and the key thing I was mainly surprised about is I did not expect we get the best year for gold and silver since 1979 that's a that just makes me absolutely frightened and I right away start out with the caution I'm expressing is I don't give investment advice but there's certain times in your life you can help people and I see a hurricane coming there's and I don't um there's never I've never been told I can't say just overweight treasuries that's the feeling I'm getting right now >> there's an there's a hurricane coming to find out what that means exactly and how we shelter from the storm but uh I want to start by talking about monetary policy the economy first before we get to your outlook on certain commodities and asset classes take a listen to what Jerome Powell had to say at the last FOMC conference. Take a look. >> Accordingly, at today's meeting, the committee decided to initiate purchases of shorterterm Treasury securities, mainly Treasury bills, for the sole purpose of maintaining an ample supply of reserves over time. Such increases in our securities holdings ensure that the federal funds rate remains within its target range and are necessary because the growth of the economy leads to rising demand over time for our liabilities, including currency and reserves. As detailed in a statement released today by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, reserve management purchases will amount to $40 billion in the first month and may remain elevated for a few months to alleviate expected near-term pressures in money markets. Thereafter, we expect the size of reserves reserve management purchases to decline. So, the actual pace will depend on market conditions. So, that was effective as of December 12th, I believe. So, a few days ago. That sounds like according to many strategists and economists sounds like the beginning of a minor QE and I'll just let you comment on whether or not it is actually QE per uh what you think and your colleagues think and whether or not this changes your outlook for inflation. >> No, I still think we're going to have pretty severe normal deflationary forces that follow the inflation. And I that's one thing I've been somewhat wrong about um because the stock market's still up. But I think that's going to really kick in next year by things I'm seeing from crude oil collapsing and gold going up. But I heard from it's it's what he said versus what I heard. What I heard is the analogy I heard in you know in baseball sometimes in a good inning only starts with a walk. To me now the US central bank is starting to buy treasuries. I want to be on that trade. It was one of the key things I wanted to buy. I was bullish gold for too long until it finally broke out in 2024. the central major deepest pockets in the planet were buying gold. Um now the US he's hinting at buying treasure now for there for for normal um normal reasons to cover flow and everything but to me it's just getting started and alls we need is just god help us if the S&P 500 drops to 200 day moving average which is about 10% which would be about almost 25% in GDP it's going to happen we're going to get that kind of force we're going to have to start seeing some pretty severe easing um just similar what's happening in China and I think that's just what's going to be happening next year and I I say that I'm embold Holden to say that because of what shocked me this year. It was the best year ever for gold versus crude oil going down. That disparity around 90%. Was last match in 2008 at 60%. So to me um things like that are trying to and the major shift we had from higher to lower in Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. To me, this is peak stuff, major peak risk asset stuff that's just starting to kick in. And I think um the Federal Reserve is just part of it. And a key lesson I like to learn is those of us who were trading back in 20201 and when the S&Ps dropped 50% after the Federal Reserve first started easing and then when the S&P dropped 50% in 2007 after they first started easing, I see the potential. We're going to be just um doing that again um and heading lower and cryptos are leading the way. Um, and I don't know what stops it right now other than it's just a key thing is you sometimes you just prices get too high and you have to go down. The question is how far and that's the key risk I'm worried about for next year. So for now as we head towards the end of this year it's only December 16th we're near the last week of the year. I expect a potential crash in markets. I I hate to say that but it's just last year around this time we the last few weeks of the year we dropped 5% S&P 500 and that high lasted till about June. We've had rollovers in cryptos. They've rolled over. Micro strategy leading the way. You look at things like Microsoft, complete double top heading lower. Um, Nvidia, a a almost perfect head and shoulders heading lower. I mean, this market's rolling over. It's derisking. And I say, you know, um, don't sometimes invest to panic. Take profits. >> When you say markets, you mean stock markets and potentially crypto? Everything because I think you wrote a piece. >> Yeah. Every speak right now. Crude oil just made a new low for the year at $55 a barrel. Natural gas was up at 550. It's collapsed on the 390. It was up 40% of the year. Now it's up only seven. The grains are rolling over. Soybeans are rolling over. The number one leading tip of the I for everything is micro strategy. Now it's dropped almost 70. Well, it's dropped on this year 40 60% on a one-year basis. Um and the key pillar for everything is US stock market. Uh David, and I think what we're finding is people are realizing what they did in cryptos and maybe we should just start booking some profits. >> You already know why people hold gold. It's because it's real money. But what if your gold could do more than just sit in a vault? Well, that's where our sponsor today, Monetary Metals, comes in. They offer a way for you to earn a yield on your gold paid in physical gold. Through their leasing marketplace, you can earn up to 4% yield per year in gold. Instead of paying storage fees, your gold actually works for you. And because that yield is paid in gold, not cash, your stack grows no matter what the dollar is doing. Thousands of clients already earn monthly interest in gold and silver through monetary medals. And the numbers just keep climbing. So don't just hold gold, start earning real gold on your gold today. Go to monetary-medals.com/ lin link down below or scan the QR code here. Put your gold to work soon. So we're not going to have inflation or massive reinflation because of monetary easing. Like you just said, you're still sticking to your deflation camp. It's interesting how you don't think asset prices will benefit from easing though. What what what are the forces that are so strong that going to prevent asset prices from uh from following the Fed's wind, so to speak? You know, the old adage, don't fight the Fed. >> Yeah, I love that old adage. Martin Swag was a key um prominent um key person who like to speak about that one a lot, but I just gave you two examples when you peaks also hap often happens when the Fed starts easing. Now, this is kind of re a restart of easing because it started easing. The easing started really a year ago in 2024, but now I think it's just the simple fact is you go too far, too high, and you just start reverting. Like I said, the key leading indicator for all this has been cryptos. They've rolled over. Bitcoin's rolled over. It's just gone up too far. So the the fact is this year's peak maybe still about now was 2.3 times GDP. Stock market cap to GDP. Now that might not people can push back on that and say it's financial you know it's a financial market but if you just look at US stock market versus the rest of the world we peaked near 2/3 and that's starting to roll over. So to me this is the beginning of a normal correction. We haven't had a down year in S&P 500 total returns only had two since 2008. We're overdue for that. All the signs are there for me and it's like and what emboldens me is what's happened with things like precious metals taking off and crude oil collapsing. Um, and then I look at right now as we speak, David, 120day volatility in S&P 500 is about 11%. If we end the year here, that'll be the lowest since 2009. I said that about natural gas a few weeks ago. If we end the year here at 550, it'll be the highest since 2009. It just reverted. So, what we're talking about now is normal reversion. The Fed doesn't matter. In fact, in fact, today as we speak in December 16th, we just had a dump of all the data and it doesn't it didn't matter. Market's already down almost a full percent 500. Why? Because people are just waiting for a trigger to move and that move is sell. Well, let's take a look at your piece here that you published uh this week. It's called metals inflation versus energy deflation. We haven't talked about metals yet. Uh but your title is or subtitle is gold 5000 crew 40 US uh $2 US natural gas. Uh these are 2026 tracks. Tell us about um momentum could carry gold toward 5,000 an ounce. So I think gold is so far up until our discussion which is 10 minutes in. So far the only asset that you're not very bearish on yet. We've talked about deflation. We talked about stock markets. We're going to get to cryptos in a second. But $5,000 not an ounce sounds great for for for for for this track for for gold. >> So when gold gets this stress historically I've shifted from being a fundamentally bullish gold strategist. And the key thing is you have I had to take the pain 21 22 23. I kept saying it's going above 2,000. I was the you know I was the idiot. I got thrown down to the mat and finally it broke up higher. So that was the time to be accumulating and getting long and bullish gold. Now that it's popped up to some say three standard deviations versus a 60-month moving average. I like to say it's just the most stretch versus most moving averages. I'll use 60 month as one since the n late7s early 80s. I switch over to my risk management hat and I don't care about the fundamentals in these levels. Honestly, as a now a risk manager, this is not the level to get overweight long gold. Historically, it proves it could eas get to 5,000 or it can get to 4 4,000. Now, right now the momentum's up. It's going to continue up. But if and or when we get this normal correction risk assets, everything is going to go down. That's what happened in 2008. So, also I want to give a little example of gold's companion, silver. Silver this year has had its best year since 1979. It's up over in 20% and now they're somewhat linked. Now, that's one thing I was really surprised by is how much silver's um caught up versus gold. But the key thing to remember is in 1979, silver ended the year $32 an ounce. It was up 400% this year or that year. This year's low was $28 an ounce. So, you had about 50 years of nothingness. Yeah, you get pops, but that's the key thing to remember about things like commodities like this. When they pop this much, history proves you're not supposed to go out of your way to be overweight long gold or silver at these levels. And that's why I said at the beginning, I tilt over to anything that's kind of risk off. And gold is t typically risk off when it goes this far. Just be careful. And that's why I tilt over to treasuries. >> But, okay. So, let me just summarize your view on gold in maybe a few sentences. So, you're cautious on gold given how far it's run. Understandable, but you still think $5,000 in the cards. So, that's still about a 20% upside. Let help us understand how exactly your position then, how one should be positioned given your sentiment. >> They can position any way you want. I just I'm a strategist and I have to caution that the key fact I like to use is overweight long gold or new long gold positions history does not prove they do well from such stretched levels >> fact just maybe it's changed this time so here's a key thing I just put gold and the word frightening in the same sentence for the same reason because I it's never moved at this velocity day but ever this far stretch like 85% above a 60 month moving average with 120day or stock market volatility this low so my implication indication is gold's telling me stock market's going volatility is going to go up and it usually means stock market prices go down >> and the other thing is it's never actually consolidated around a local top for this long. So take a look at uh how gold's been performing over the last couple months. We can we can see clearly that it's been hovering around 42 $4,300 without uh without um moving in either direction dramatically. And so that kind of is a consolidated pattern. So if it were to go if it wanted to go higher, it would have done so already weeks ago. It hasn't. And so last time it's done that 2011 and also 1980. It hasn't stayed around its top and consolidated for very long before it's gone down by the order of 2011. In 2012 it was 45%, it was even more. I think in 1980 it was yeah 60%. Um and so what's stopping it from doing the same thing this time? So it's it's the essence I learned in the business sometimes the hard way is um never be shy about taking profits. >> Yeah. Just question how much. And the key thing is also this this selling when they're yelling mantra. That was what really triggered me about cryptos last year. I say I want to be selling because they're yelling. And I'm getting that same feeling in gold. Now a little difference is I'm more willing as a strategist to be short cryptos a broad crypto market because I think a lot of them are going to go to zero. But being short gold's another story. just you know if you've been overweight long and been bullish like me it's just the essence of a strategist when I can get something right to be able to say it never hurts to take some profits >> so let's move on to the US tier now you're bullish on treasury so you think yields are going to come down is that because of QE and deflation all of the above >> the number one force for US Treasury yields to go down is the stock market going down that's the 10 everything else is maybe a five or less because we are in a severe inflationary excessive um risk asset wealth creation mode and it's just starting to tilt the other way. You seen that cryptos, all that wealth creation in cryptos, all that speculation is tilting lower. I think stock market's going to do the same. I think next year is going to be a down year for the total return. I don't know how much maybe reverting towards 5,000 S&P 500. Not a big deal to say it, but it's kind of the low this year. Um and that is the number one force for everything. The key that's the key thing is when you get to this stretch versus GDP, the stock market is the economy. And to me that's the number one. So I look at a long treasury long bond position is effectively similar to a stock market put right now. The thing is you're still getting that and the treasury bond you're getting almost 5% 4.8%. And penote 4.15% and I've been saying it for a while but I've been wrong. I think it's going to happen next year is I think we're going to head towards that 10 note yield in China which is 1.85%. Currently in US is about 4.15%. What do you make of interest rate differentials around the world where other central banks are potentially hiking rates? So, Bank of Japan for example, maybe Bank of England, uh, Bank of Canada, it's actually halted the rate the uh, a rate cut of the recent decision where expected to. So, we're certainly looking at central banks just not following the US Fed when it comes to uh, rate decisions. Uh, term premiums may be a different story, but it doesn't look like they're following each other right now. How is that going to impact FX and rates? >> Well, there you go. So, part of that's part of a pressure factor on the dollar. I think the number one pressure factor is what lifted the dollar up was going the other way. Stock market going down. But, uh, Japan is not significant partly because they're coming out of a 35-y year deflationary period. Remember, you're talking to someone who I seen this before, traded JGBs, Japanese government bonds in the '90s, and I've seen it before. Now, the most significant I think market to look like. You mentioned UK not as big as important. It's kind of hovering but Germany has been stagnant their economy for almost 5 years now. And the number one is is China. So the bond yield in China 1.85%. We've had almost 37 straight months of negative PPI. That's despite um significant fiscal and monetary stimulus. the money supply is running 45 to50 trillion which is like double the US and stock market and and sorry debt to GDP is running around 300%. That's much higher than the US and and much higher than Japan. So they're doing everything they can to help push back on that deflationary forces from the housing bubble and emerging market that just um shot up too fast and now the whole rest of the world's um who their their dependent on dependence on exporting to us is being shut off. So that's part of the reason crude oil is collapsing, gold's going up. But the key thing is all what h it matters for next year. So to me again the number one force for everything for any central bank on the planetees more so than any time in history is the US stock market. If it goes down and the US economy shuts down and we get a little recession, they're all going to be easing. It's just the way it's going to happen. Where's Japan going to export to? Where's everybody else going to export to? It's just all going that way. The key thing is we're at that extreme and all the signs are there. That's why I say sometimes it's nice to just lock in at, you know, 4% in treasuries, maybe a little less. Now, >> let's talk about Bitcoin. Now, Bitcoin has had not a great couple of months. And you were on the show a couple months ago calling for Bitcoin to potentially lose a zero in the next bare market. >> Now, this next bare market, that's not hasn't lost a zero yet, but is this the beginning of the next bare market? Is that what this looks like? >> Yes. Yes. To me, I when you have a key theme that kind of gets thrown down in a mat, then comes back a little bit, you have to re visit. And that to me is Bitcoin put in a sign a sign significant cryptos put in a significant peak in 2024. There's good reasons for that. I don't have to mention them all, but the final one was President Trump becoming getting elected on the back of tilting over from a um a zealot to a convert on cryptos. And then we had all this massive speculative excesses. And now I think Bitcoin the first stop is around 50,000. You look at the last 5 years, it's been hovering. Each year it's touched around 50,000. And by the way, I made the same call in 2018. It would drop a zero. I was 70% right. And some people say 30% wrong. From around 10,000 went to 3,000. So I do think the first stop was around 50,000. I think it's going to 10,000. There's key reasons for that. First, the world changed. Now we what's different now is no longer buying any kind of a cryptos is no longer independent of most governments. Now you're dependent upon the US government and you're also supporting Trump um the Trump family, Trump administration's officials who are all invested in this space. And the key thing is back when I got really bullish. I I went to see Michael Sailor last night in an event when I was really bullish in 2020 as was he. He jumped on board when it was around 10,000. Yeah, I called for a 10x. Now everybody's bullish. He's doubling down with the 10x and I think it's just going to rotate tight back down. The difference is the bottom line fact is and people can dispute this as much as they want. There is about 28 million cryptocurrencies on coinarketcap.com. There's an unlimited supply of you call them companions and there was one in 2009 2000 and that was Bitcoin. I look at precious metals there was basically there's one and there's three others gold, silver, platinum, platum. You can't really create more of those. But in in cryptos, there's unlimited supply. And the key lesson to learn commodities is embrace the technology, but not the price. And the key thing about the the technology in this space is sure there's a lot of equities are doing well, but they can create more with less everyday cryptocurrencies. And Bitcoin was has advantage of being one, but I I do think it's going to head back to 10,000. Just see how that works out next year. And that also is on the back of the stock market dropping and yields dropping next year. Well, you can't uh change the hard cap on Bitcoin. So maybe in the world of infinite uh infinite printing of new cryptos, Bitcoin stands out as the dominant currency perhaps. And let's just take a look at what happens if we do Bitcoin dominance. Perhaps Bitcoin dominance goes up. What do you think? Oh, sure. Oh, completely. I some there's there's it's just some of these silly things that are I love to look at Dogecoin and ShibuInu. Dogecoin peaked at $60 billion last year. I mean, it tracks nothing. It was launched as a joke and right now it's about 20 billion. Same with Shibu Enu. It's a joke. It peaked at about 20 billion last year and right now it's about 4 billion. I think they're going to zero. That's not a a profound thing. A lot of crypto people think the same thing. A lot of crypto people hope that stuff will get flushed out and then can we can res reset the whole market. The big area why I have a difference is a lot of them tell me that Bitcoin is not correlated and I point out they're all correlated. Um I just look at the market vectors small cap index. Its correlation with Bitcoin on 48-month basis is84. Now that in the past was a lot less but they're all linked. They're all going down. I think it's just started and we need some kind of trigger for it to end. And I think right now it's going to accelerate when the US stock market backs up a little. Just a little move back to the 200 day moving average in S&P 500 which is like around 6200 would be the first sign of um I think a place to a dip to buy in cryptos. Also a key thing is we have the VIX. The VIX is buried at 17. Anytime the VIX pops around when it popped around 60 early in the year that was the time to buy cryptos and when it popped around 26 just a few uh weeks ago that was the time to buy cryptos. that and volatility indications from that's one been one of the key market indicators I've ever had is volatility in stock market's way too low to be considering um adding to new longs and risk assets and cryptos are the riskiest of them and then let's look at some of the key leading indicators micro strategy micro strategy was a key leading indicator on the way up last year and it's already tilt tilted lower you have the 200 day moving average and on and on and Bitcoin rolling over micro strategy rolling over you see the trends there the next one is the 200 day moving average and S&P 500 to roll over it stops at I don't know I The risks are they follow all follow cryptos >> and and cryptos all follow Bitcoin and Bitcoin all follows Bitcoin follows stocks. Is that is that the thesis here? >> Well, in this case it's leading. Um and I think it's leading because it's peaked. We've had a classic David was one of the classic signs of a peak. Um everything that happened 2024, the having the ETFs, stock market record high, and certainly Mr. Trump flipping over are all reasons to to for it to have peaked. But also it's the um just the fact that the rollover factor and the pile on in ETFs there's some of that's been the OG's switching out to more safer rather they have to worry about the keys anymore going to ETFs but into poor performance I mean the performance of the all broad crypto market and Bitcoin has been horrible for over a year now high volatility poor performance and people say you know that's your typical risk managers looking at this and saying no sorry thank you yeah it's had a great run before it got launched in ETFs in the mainstream but now it's in the mainstream we all know the rule of the back test the back test was great but now it's kind of the perform it's over I think and you know I have to I'm here to make a you express my views to my view is the crypto rally is over for now it's people call crypto winner I do love some of the noclature it's just a question how far it goes and we'd love to see signals for it to end but to me it's barely started because we like I said the stock market still just needs a little correction to just clean cleanse some of the excesses initially Well, you all know what the f first say is, oh, it's a healthy correction. We haven't even had that yet. >> People say, some people say Bitcoin is digital gold. I'm clearly you're you're clearly not in that camp given that you think big gold's going to 5,000, even though you're cautiously optimistic on gold and you're not at all optimistic on Bitcoin right now. So, diverging paths, they can't be the same type of asset if they're diverging in outlook. Right. So, um, A digital goal by Nathaniel Pauper, who is now at Bloomberg, was one of the first books I really dug into in 2017 in cryptos, and I was obviously very bullish. I waited till 2019 to get bullish um around 5,000, but yeah, I love that, but it's it's not like I said, so here's the key difference. There's gold, gold, um, silver, platinum, plating, there's gold, and then three other precious metals. There's Bitcoin, and then 27 28 million com companions. It's just the difference is it was the first cryptocurrency. Now there's millions and I think sometimes it trades more like leverage stock market. Sometimes it trades like gold. Now I think it's trading like a highly speculative digital asset that's going to just reverting back to a lower a lower price cure. And I don't think it's anywhere near that right now as we speak around 87,000. >> Anything you're bullish on for 2020? >> Treasuries. Treasury bonds. I think treasury bond prices >> besides Yes. Besides treasuries that that's the problem. So, here's the way I look at it and and admitted I have to admit some of my weaknesses. I have not been a fan of the stock market for too long, but I found some great alpha and pointed out great alpha in Bitcoin and gold. Now, I jumped off the Bitcoin horse last year and to me that alpha was over and it's proving strong this year and I'm jumping off the gold alpha this year. And get the key thing that really scares me about this year, David, is when gold grabs alpha like it did this I mean there's nothing except just a few small peripheral assets there outperforming G gold particularly on a risk adjusted basis this year that's telling us something that's a warning and I'm heeding the warning and that's why I say you're supposed to just shift over to risk off assets like treasuries to me that's the bias for next year and I I'm fearful that we might have a bit of a crash in the market stock market >> uh I mean what are we looking at 30% 50% what what's a crash for you 25% is a crash >> it's the term it's the term that people use what's use 1987 as as an example. The S&P 500 ended up the year with 2% gain. Most people don't remember it that way, but just a normal reversion. We'll see. Maybe gold and the S&P 500 meet at 5,000. I don't know for sure, but alls I know as a strategist is gold is way too stretched for me to be recommending, you know, be putting out my very bullish comments that I did forever. And Bitcoin's heading lower, so I'm pointing that out. Crude oil is heading lower, so I'm pointing that out. And to me, I'm just pointing out the the the risks [clears throat] of just a normal healthy correction in the stock market. That's what people call it. We'll just get back to that 200 day moving average and go from there. But for now, towards the end of the year, the key thing is remember is what's happening with the macro big picture. This is the most expensive stock market in history versus GDP versus the rest of the world versus housing and things like that. And maybe it has a worthy reason to back up now. And that is we do have a president who, you know, says it's going to make the world great, but it's kind of hard to get much greater than the the valuation of the stock market. And I and this was a theme I had a year ago before the election of President Trump. My [clears throat] thought was whoever was the next president was going to have the um un misfortune of being the wrong side of the cycle like President Her Hoover. This is just how expensive the stock market is. And they keep trying to pump it up. But what's happening by pumping up the stock market and talking up um risk assets and pushing back on the Fed and creating tariffs, it's all elevating inflation, which means incumbents do not get elected. >> Everyone's Go ahead. >> Yeah. No, I was just going to say uh that's great insight. Let's let's leave it here and I know you have to go, so we'll we'll we'll end it here for today. But uh thank you very much for your time today, Mike. Not just today, but for the entire year. We appreciate you contributing to the show. Where can we follow you >> on your show, David? I'm looking forward to coming back next time. Who knows, a couple months from now. We'll see how these calls work out. Um I'm on Twi on Twitter. I guess I can say Twitter now. Alon Musk has asked that question if we should call Twitter, Mike1 and LinkedIn. Um senior commodity strategist and people can reach out to me. I'm happy to add him to my distribution list. And again, David, thank you for having me on and a happy new year and and um good seasonal greetings to everyone. >> Yep. Happy New Year and merry Christmas and happy holidays to everybody and to you as well, Michael especially. Uh Mike, good to see you. We'll see you again in 2026. Take care for now. >> Thank you, David. >> That was Mike Mclo from Bloomberg and we'll see you next time. Follow for more.
‘Hurricane Coming’: Brutal Warning For Stocks, Bitcoin, Gold In 2026 | Mike McGlone
Summary
Start earning interest in gold: https://Monetary-Metals.com/Lin Mike McGlone, Senior Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg …Transcript
I see a hurricane coming. There's I think Bitcoin the first stop is around 50,000. It would drop a zero. The first stop was around 50,000. I think it's going to 10,000. There's key reasons for that. When gold grabs alpha like it did this year, that's telling us something. That's a warning and I'm heating the warning. I'm fearful that we might have a bit of a crash in the stock market. Alls I know is a strategist is gold is way too stretched for me. Bitcoin's heading lower, so I'm pointing that out. Crude oil is heading lower, so I'm pointing that out. And to me, I'm just pointing out the the risks of the correction in the stock market. >> I'm very pleased to welcome back the show fan favorite Mike Mclo, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence. We'll be back and uh talking about uh the commodities outlook with Mike, but also his outlook for the macroeconomic landscape for 2026. Welcome back to the show, Mike. Good to see you. >> David, it's good to be back. I always appreciate talking to you and I appreciate the favorites from the fans. I appreciate your support. >> I appreciate your support. It's our last discussion for 2025. >> Looking forward to many more in 2026. But let's start let's just start with a recap of this year. What surprised you the most with how markets performed, how the economy performed? Uh how your forecasts uh panned out and then we'll dive into what happens next for the new year. >> The best thing I think as a trader, strategist, investors to focus on what you got wrong the most first. And I was wrong. I've been wrong about this persistent rally in the stock market. Um I think it's about time we're going to get a pretty significant reversion next year in stock market bond yields to go lower, but I've been wrong in those for a while. Bond yields ticking that way. So that's the number one thing I've been surprised about still. Um I was surprised at how high things like Bitcoin got but I was really um not I wouldn't say happy but um expected the those markets to turn lower and they have um expected crude oil to turn lower and and they have continued lower expected gold go higher and the key thing I was mainly surprised about is I did not expect we get the best year for gold and silver since 1979 that's a that just makes me absolutely frightened and I right away start out with the caution I'm expressing is I don't give investment advice but there's certain times in your life you can help people and I see a hurricane coming there's and I don't um there's never I've never been told I can't say just overweight treasuries that's the feeling I'm getting right now >> there's an there's a hurricane coming to find out what that means exactly and how we shelter from the storm but uh I want to start by talking about monetary policy the economy first before we get to your outlook on certain commodities and asset classes take a listen to what Jerome Powell had to say at the last FOMC conference. Take a look. >> Accordingly, at today's meeting, the committee decided to initiate purchases of shorterterm Treasury securities, mainly Treasury bills, for the sole purpose of maintaining an ample supply of reserves over time. Such increases in our securities holdings ensure that the federal funds rate remains within its target range and are necessary because the growth of the economy leads to rising demand over time for our liabilities, including currency and reserves. As detailed in a statement released today by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, reserve management purchases will amount to $40 billion in the first month and may remain elevated for a few months to alleviate expected near-term pressures in money markets. Thereafter, we expect the size of reserves reserve management purchases to decline. So, the actual pace will depend on market conditions. So, that was effective as of December 12th, I believe. So, a few days ago. That sounds like according to many strategists and economists sounds like the beginning of a minor QE and I'll just let you comment on whether or not it is actually QE per uh what you think and your colleagues think and whether or not this changes your outlook for inflation. >> No, I still think we're going to have pretty severe normal deflationary forces that follow the inflation. And I that's one thing I've been somewhat wrong about um because the stock market's still up. But I think that's going to really kick in next year by things I'm seeing from crude oil collapsing and gold going up. But I heard from it's it's what he said versus what I heard. What I heard is the analogy I heard in you know in baseball sometimes in a good inning only starts with a walk. To me now the US central bank is starting to buy treasuries. I want to be on that trade. It was one of the key things I wanted to buy. I was bullish gold for too long until it finally broke out in 2024. the central major deepest pockets in the planet were buying gold. Um now the US he's hinting at buying treasure now for there for for normal um normal reasons to cover flow and everything but to me it's just getting started and alls we need is just god help us if the S&P 500 drops to 200 day moving average which is about 10% which would be about almost 25% in GDP it's going to happen we're going to get that kind of force we're going to have to start seeing some pretty severe easing um just similar what's happening in China and I think that's just what's going to be happening next year and I I say that I'm embold Holden to say that because of what shocked me this year. It was the best year ever for gold versus crude oil going down. That disparity around 90%. Was last match in 2008 at 60%. So to me um things like that are trying to and the major shift we had from higher to lower in Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. To me, this is peak stuff, major peak risk asset stuff that's just starting to kick in. And I think um the Federal Reserve is just part of it. And a key lesson I like to learn is those of us who were trading back in 20201 and when the S&Ps dropped 50% after the Federal Reserve first started easing and then when the S&P dropped 50% in 2007 after they first started easing, I see the potential. We're going to be just um doing that again um and heading lower and cryptos are leading the way. Um, and I don't know what stops it right now other than it's just a key thing is you sometimes you just prices get too high and you have to go down. The question is how far and that's the key risk I'm worried about for next year. So for now as we head towards the end of this year it's only December 16th we're near the last week of the year. I expect a potential crash in markets. I I hate to say that but it's just last year around this time we the last few weeks of the year we dropped 5% S&P 500 and that high lasted till about June. We've had rollovers in cryptos. They've rolled over. Micro strategy leading the way. You look at things like Microsoft, complete double top heading lower. Um, Nvidia, a a almost perfect head and shoulders heading lower. I mean, this market's rolling over. It's derisking. And I say, you know, um, don't sometimes invest to panic. Take profits. >> When you say markets, you mean stock markets and potentially crypto? Everything because I think you wrote a piece. >> Yeah. Every speak right now. Crude oil just made a new low for the year at $55 a barrel. Natural gas was up at 550. It's collapsed on the 390. It was up 40% of the year. Now it's up only seven. The grains are rolling over. Soybeans are rolling over. The number one leading tip of the I for everything is micro strategy. Now it's dropped almost 70. Well, it's dropped on this year 40 60% on a one-year basis. Um and the key pillar for everything is US stock market. Uh David, and I think what we're finding is people are realizing what they did in cryptos and maybe we should just start booking some profits. >> You already know why people hold gold. It's because it's real money. But what if your gold could do more than just sit in a vault? Well, that's where our sponsor today, Monetary Metals, comes in. They offer a way for you to earn a yield on your gold paid in physical gold. Through their leasing marketplace, you can earn up to 4% yield per year in gold. Instead of paying storage fees, your gold actually works for you. And because that yield is paid in gold, not cash, your stack grows no matter what the dollar is doing. Thousands of clients already earn monthly interest in gold and silver through monetary medals. And the numbers just keep climbing. So don't just hold gold, start earning real gold on your gold today. Go to monetary-medals.com/ lin link down below or scan the QR code here. Put your gold to work soon. So we're not going to have inflation or massive reinflation because of monetary easing. Like you just said, you're still sticking to your deflation camp. It's interesting how you don't think asset prices will benefit from easing though. What what what are the forces that are so strong that going to prevent asset prices from uh from following the Fed's wind, so to speak? You know, the old adage, don't fight the Fed. >> Yeah, I love that old adage. Martin Swag was a key um prominent um key person who like to speak about that one a lot, but I just gave you two examples when you peaks also hap often happens when the Fed starts easing. Now, this is kind of re a restart of easing because it started easing. The easing started really a year ago in 2024, but now I think it's just the simple fact is you go too far, too high, and you just start reverting. Like I said, the key leading indicator for all this has been cryptos. They've rolled over. Bitcoin's rolled over. It's just gone up too far. So the the fact is this year's peak maybe still about now was 2.3 times GDP. Stock market cap to GDP. Now that might not people can push back on that and say it's financial you know it's a financial market but if you just look at US stock market versus the rest of the world we peaked near 2/3 and that's starting to roll over. So to me this is the beginning of a normal correction. We haven't had a down year in S&P 500 total returns only had two since 2008. We're overdue for that. All the signs are there for me and it's like and what emboldens me is what's happened with things like precious metals taking off and crude oil collapsing. Um, and then I look at right now as we speak, David, 120day volatility in S&P 500 is about 11%. If we end the year here, that'll be the lowest since 2009. I said that about natural gas a few weeks ago. If we end the year here at 550, it'll be the highest since 2009. It just reverted. So, what we're talking about now is normal reversion. The Fed doesn't matter. In fact, in fact, today as we speak in December 16th, we just had a dump of all the data and it doesn't it didn't matter. Market's already down almost a full percent 500. Why? Because people are just waiting for a trigger to move and that move is sell. Well, let's take a look at your piece here that you published uh this week. It's called metals inflation versus energy deflation. We haven't talked about metals yet. Uh but your title is or subtitle is gold 5000 crew 40 US uh $2 US natural gas. Uh these are 2026 tracks. Tell us about um momentum could carry gold toward 5,000 an ounce. So I think gold is so far up until our discussion which is 10 minutes in. So far the only asset that you're not very bearish on yet. We've talked about deflation. We talked about stock markets. We're going to get to cryptos in a second. But $5,000 not an ounce sounds great for for for for for this track for for gold. >> So when gold gets this stress historically I've shifted from being a fundamentally bullish gold strategist. And the key thing is you have I had to take the pain 21 22 23. I kept saying it's going above 2,000. I was the you know I was the idiot. I got thrown down to the mat and finally it broke up higher. So that was the time to be accumulating and getting long and bullish gold. Now that it's popped up to some say three standard deviations versus a 60-month moving average. I like to say it's just the most stretch versus most moving averages. I'll use 60 month as one since the n late7s early 80s. I switch over to my risk management hat and I don't care about the fundamentals in these levels. Honestly, as a now a risk manager, this is not the level to get overweight long gold. Historically, it proves it could eas get to 5,000 or it can get to 4 4,000. Now, right now the momentum's up. It's going to continue up. But if and or when we get this normal correction risk assets, everything is going to go down. That's what happened in 2008. So, also I want to give a little example of gold's companion, silver. Silver this year has had its best year since 1979. It's up over in 20% and now they're somewhat linked. Now, that's one thing I was really surprised by is how much silver's um caught up versus gold. But the key thing to remember is in 1979, silver ended the year $32 an ounce. It was up 400% this year or that year. This year's low was $28 an ounce. So, you had about 50 years of nothingness. Yeah, you get pops, but that's the key thing to remember about things like commodities like this. When they pop this much, history proves you're not supposed to go out of your way to be overweight long gold or silver at these levels. And that's why I said at the beginning, I tilt over to anything that's kind of risk off. And gold is t typically risk off when it goes this far. Just be careful. And that's why I tilt over to treasuries. >> But, okay. So, let me just summarize your view on gold in maybe a few sentences. So, you're cautious on gold given how far it's run. Understandable, but you still think $5,000 in the cards. So, that's still about a 20% upside. Let help us understand how exactly your position then, how one should be positioned given your sentiment. >> They can position any way you want. I just I'm a strategist and I have to caution that the key fact I like to use is overweight long gold or new long gold positions history does not prove they do well from such stretched levels >> fact just maybe it's changed this time so here's a key thing I just put gold and the word frightening in the same sentence for the same reason because I it's never moved at this velocity day but ever this far stretch like 85% above a 60 month moving average with 120day or stock market volatility this low so my implication indication is gold's telling me stock market's going volatility is going to go up and it usually means stock market prices go down >> and the other thing is it's never actually consolidated around a local top for this long. So take a look at uh how gold's been performing over the last couple months. We can we can see clearly that it's been hovering around 42 $4,300 without uh without um moving in either direction dramatically. And so that kind of is a consolidated pattern. So if it were to go if it wanted to go higher, it would have done so already weeks ago. It hasn't. And so last time it's done that 2011 and also 1980. It hasn't stayed around its top and consolidated for very long before it's gone down by the order of 2011. In 2012 it was 45%, it was even more. I think in 1980 it was yeah 60%. Um and so what's stopping it from doing the same thing this time? So it's it's the essence I learned in the business sometimes the hard way is um never be shy about taking profits. >> Yeah. Just question how much. And the key thing is also this this selling when they're yelling mantra. That was what really triggered me about cryptos last year. I say I want to be selling because they're yelling. And I'm getting that same feeling in gold. Now a little difference is I'm more willing as a strategist to be short cryptos a broad crypto market because I think a lot of them are going to go to zero. But being short gold's another story. just you know if you've been overweight long and been bullish like me it's just the essence of a strategist when I can get something right to be able to say it never hurts to take some profits >> so let's move on to the US tier now you're bullish on treasury so you think yields are going to come down is that because of QE and deflation all of the above >> the number one force for US Treasury yields to go down is the stock market going down that's the 10 everything else is maybe a five or less because we are in a severe inflationary excessive um risk asset wealth creation mode and it's just starting to tilt the other way. You seen that cryptos, all that wealth creation in cryptos, all that speculation is tilting lower. I think stock market's going to do the same. I think next year is going to be a down year for the total return. I don't know how much maybe reverting towards 5,000 S&P 500. Not a big deal to say it, but it's kind of the low this year. Um and that is the number one force for everything. The key that's the key thing is when you get to this stretch versus GDP, the stock market is the economy. And to me that's the number one. So I look at a long treasury long bond position is effectively similar to a stock market put right now. The thing is you're still getting that and the treasury bond you're getting almost 5% 4.8%. And penote 4.15% and I've been saying it for a while but I've been wrong. I think it's going to happen next year is I think we're going to head towards that 10 note yield in China which is 1.85%. Currently in US is about 4.15%. What do you make of interest rate differentials around the world where other central banks are potentially hiking rates? So, Bank of Japan for example, maybe Bank of England, uh, Bank of Canada, it's actually halted the rate the uh, a rate cut of the recent decision where expected to. So, we're certainly looking at central banks just not following the US Fed when it comes to uh, rate decisions. Uh, term premiums may be a different story, but it doesn't look like they're following each other right now. How is that going to impact FX and rates? >> Well, there you go. So, part of that's part of a pressure factor on the dollar. I think the number one pressure factor is what lifted the dollar up was going the other way. Stock market going down. But, uh, Japan is not significant partly because they're coming out of a 35-y year deflationary period. Remember, you're talking to someone who I seen this before, traded JGBs, Japanese government bonds in the '90s, and I've seen it before. Now, the most significant I think market to look like. You mentioned UK not as big as important. It's kind of hovering but Germany has been stagnant their economy for almost 5 years now. And the number one is is China. So the bond yield in China 1.85%. We've had almost 37 straight months of negative PPI. That's despite um significant fiscal and monetary stimulus. the money supply is running 45 to50 trillion which is like double the US and stock market and and sorry debt to GDP is running around 300%. That's much higher than the US and and much higher than Japan. So they're doing everything they can to help push back on that deflationary forces from the housing bubble and emerging market that just um shot up too fast and now the whole rest of the world's um who their their dependent on dependence on exporting to us is being shut off. So that's part of the reason crude oil is collapsing, gold's going up. But the key thing is all what h it matters for next year. So to me again the number one force for everything for any central bank on the planetees more so than any time in history is the US stock market. If it goes down and the US economy shuts down and we get a little recession, they're all going to be easing. It's just the way it's going to happen. Where's Japan going to export to? Where's everybody else going to export to? It's just all going that way. The key thing is we're at that extreme and all the signs are there. That's why I say sometimes it's nice to just lock in at, you know, 4% in treasuries, maybe a little less. Now, >> let's talk about Bitcoin. Now, Bitcoin has had not a great couple of months. And you were on the show a couple months ago calling for Bitcoin to potentially lose a zero in the next bare market. >> Now, this next bare market, that's not hasn't lost a zero yet, but is this the beginning of the next bare market? Is that what this looks like? >> Yes. Yes. To me, I when you have a key theme that kind of gets thrown down in a mat, then comes back a little bit, you have to re visit. And that to me is Bitcoin put in a sign a sign significant cryptos put in a significant peak in 2024. There's good reasons for that. I don't have to mention them all, but the final one was President Trump becoming getting elected on the back of tilting over from a um a zealot to a convert on cryptos. And then we had all this massive speculative excesses. And now I think Bitcoin the first stop is around 50,000. You look at the last 5 years, it's been hovering. Each year it's touched around 50,000. And by the way, I made the same call in 2018. It would drop a zero. I was 70% right. And some people say 30% wrong. From around 10,000 went to 3,000. So I do think the first stop was around 50,000. I think it's going to 10,000. There's key reasons for that. First, the world changed. Now we what's different now is no longer buying any kind of a cryptos is no longer independent of most governments. Now you're dependent upon the US government and you're also supporting Trump um the Trump family, Trump administration's officials who are all invested in this space. And the key thing is back when I got really bullish. I I went to see Michael Sailor last night in an event when I was really bullish in 2020 as was he. He jumped on board when it was around 10,000. Yeah, I called for a 10x. Now everybody's bullish. He's doubling down with the 10x and I think it's just going to rotate tight back down. The difference is the bottom line fact is and people can dispute this as much as they want. There is about 28 million cryptocurrencies on coinarketcap.com. There's an unlimited supply of you call them companions and there was one in 2009 2000 and that was Bitcoin. I look at precious metals there was basically there's one and there's three others gold, silver, platinum, platum. You can't really create more of those. But in in cryptos, there's unlimited supply. And the key lesson to learn commodities is embrace the technology, but not the price. And the key thing about the the technology in this space is sure there's a lot of equities are doing well, but they can create more with less everyday cryptocurrencies. And Bitcoin was has advantage of being one, but I I do think it's going to head back to 10,000. Just see how that works out next year. And that also is on the back of the stock market dropping and yields dropping next year. Well, you can't uh change the hard cap on Bitcoin. So maybe in the world of infinite uh infinite printing of new cryptos, Bitcoin stands out as the dominant currency perhaps. And let's just take a look at what happens if we do Bitcoin dominance. Perhaps Bitcoin dominance goes up. What do you think? Oh, sure. Oh, completely. I some there's there's it's just some of these silly things that are I love to look at Dogecoin and ShibuInu. Dogecoin peaked at $60 billion last year. I mean, it tracks nothing. It was launched as a joke and right now it's about 20 billion. Same with Shibu Enu. It's a joke. It peaked at about 20 billion last year and right now it's about 4 billion. I think they're going to zero. That's not a a profound thing. A lot of crypto people think the same thing. A lot of crypto people hope that stuff will get flushed out and then can we can res reset the whole market. The big area why I have a difference is a lot of them tell me that Bitcoin is not correlated and I point out they're all correlated. Um I just look at the market vectors small cap index. Its correlation with Bitcoin on 48-month basis is84. Now that in the past was a lot less but they're all linked. They're all going down. I think it's just started and we need some kind of trigger for it to end. And I think right now it's going to accelerate when the US stock market backs up a little. Just a little move back to the 200 day moving average in S&P 500 which is like around 6200 would be the first sign of um I think a place to a dip to buy in cryptos. Also a key thing is we have the VIX. The VIX is buried at 17. Anytime the VIX pops around when it popped around 60 early in the year that was the time to buy cryptos and when it popped around 26 just a few uh weeks ago that was the time to buy cryptos. that and volatility indications from that's one been one of the key market indicators I've ever had is volatility in stock market's way too low to be considering um adding to new longs and risk assets and cryptos are the riskiest of them and then let's look at some of the key leading indicators micro strategy micro strategy was a key leading indicator on the way up last year and it's already tilt tilted lower you have the 200 day moving average and on and on and Bitcoin rolling over micro strategy rolling over you see the trends there the next one is the 200 day moving average and S&P 500 to roll over it stops at I don't know I The risks are they follow all follow cryptos >> and and cryptos all follow Bitcoin and Bitcoin all follows Bitcoin follows stocks. Is that is that the thesis here? >> Well, in this case it's leading. Um and I think it's leading because it's peaked. We've had a classic David was one of the classic signs of a peak. Um everything that happened 2024, the having the ETFs, stock market record high, and certainly Mr. Trump flipping over are all reasons to to for it to have peaked. But also it's the um just the fact that the rollover factor and the pile on in ETFs there's some of that's been the OG's switching out to more safer rather they have to worry about the keys anymore going to ETFs but into poor performance I mean the performance of the all broad crypto market and Bitcoin has been horrible for over a year now high volatility poor performance and people say you know that's your typical risk managers looking at this and saying no sorry thank you yeah it's had a great run before it got launched in ETFs in the mainstream but now it's in the mainstream we all know the rule of the back test the back test was great but now it's kind of the perform it's over I think and you know I have to I'm here to make a you express my views to my view is the crypto rally is over for now it's people call crypto winner I do love some of the noclature it's just a question how far it goes and we'd love to see signals for it to end but to me it's barely started because we like I said the stock market still just needs a little correction to just clean cleanse some of the excesses initially Well, you all know what the f first say is, oh, it's a healthy correction. We haven't even had that yet. >> People say, some people say Bitcoin is digital gold. I'm clearly you're you're clearly not in that camp given that you think big gold's going to 5,000, even though you're cautiously optimistic on gold and you're not at all optimistic on Bitcoin right now. So, diverging paths, they can't be the same type of asset if they're diverging in outlook. Right. So, um, A digital goal by Nathaniel Pauper, who is now at Bloomberg, was one of the first books I really dug into in 2017 in cryptos, and I was obviously very bullish. I waited till 2019 to get bullish um around 5,000, but yeah, I love that, but it's it's not like I said, so here's the key difference. There's gold, gold, um, silver, platinum, plating, there's gold, and then three other precious metals. There's Bitcoin, and then 27 28 million com companions. It's just the difference is it was the first cryptocurrency. Now there's millions and I think sometimes it trades more like leverage stock market. Sometimes it trades like gold. Now I think it's trading like a highly speculative digital asset that's going to just reverting back to a lower a lower price cure. And I don't think it's anywhere near that right now as we speak around 87,000. >> Anything you're bullish on for 2020? >> Treasuries. Treasury bonds. I think treasury bond prices >> besides Yes. Besides treasuries that that's the problem. So, here's the way I look at it and and admitted I have to admit some of my weaknesses. I have not been a fan of the stock market for too long, but I found some great alpha and pointed out great alpha in Bitcoin and gold. Now, I jumped off the Bitcoin horse last year and to me that alpha was over and it's proving strong this year and I'm jumping off the gold alpha this year. And get the key thing that really scares me about this year, David, is when gold grabs alpha like it did this I mean there's nothing except just a few small peripheral assets there outperforming G gold particularly on a risk adjusted basis this year that's telling us something that's a warning and I'm heeding the warning and that's why I say you're supposed to just shift over to risk off assets like treasuries to me that's the bias for next year and I I'm fearful that we might have a bit of a crash in the market stock market >> uh I mean what are we looking at 30% 50% what what's a crash for you 25% is a crash >> it's the term it's the term that people use what's use 1987 as as an example. The S&P 500 ended up the year with 2% gain. Most people don't remember it that way, but just a normal reversion. We'll see. Maybe gold and the S&P 500 meet at 5,000. I don't know for sure, but alls I know as a strategist is gold is way too stretched for me to be recommending, you know, be putting out my very bullish comments that I did forever. And Bitcoin's heading lower, so I'm pointing that out. Crude oil is heading lower, so I'm pointing that out. And to me, I'm just pointing out the the the risks [clears throat] of just a normal healthy correction in the stock market. That's what people call it. We'll just get back to that 200 day moving average and go from there. But for now, towards the end of the year, the key thing is remember is what's happening with the macro big picture. This is the most expensive stock market in history versus GDP versus the rest of the world versus housing and things like that. And maybe it has a worthy reason to back up now. And that is we do have a president who, you know, says it's going to make the world great, but it's kind of hard to get much greater than the the valuation of the stock market. And I and this was a theme I had a year ago before the election of President Trump. My [clears throat] thought was whoever was the next president was going to have the um un misfortune of being the wrong side of the cycle like President Her Hoover. This is just how expensive the stock market is. And they keep trying to pump it up. But what's happening by pumping up the stock market and talking up um risk assets and pushing back on the Fed and creating tariffs, it's all elevating inflation, which means incumbents do not get elected. >> Everyone's Go ahead. >> Yeah. No, I was just going to say uh that's great insight. Let's let's leave it here and I know you have to go, so we'll we'll we'll end it here for today. But uh thank you very much for your time today, Mike. Not just today, but for the entire year. We appreciate you contributing to the show. Where can we follow you >> on your show, David? I'm looking forward to coming back next time. Who knows, a couple months from now. We'll see how these calls work out. Um I'm on Twi on Twitter. I guess I can say Twitter now. Alon Musk has asked that question if we should call Twitter, Mike1 and LinkedIn. Um senior commodity strategist and people can reach out to me. I'm happy to add him to my distribution list. And again, David, thank you for having me on and a happy new year and and um good seasonal greetings to everyone. >> Yep. Happy New Year and merry Christmas and happy holidays to everybody and to you as well, Michael especially. Uh Mike, good to see you. We'll see you again in 2026. Take care for now. >> Thank you, David. >> That was Mike Mclo from Bloomberg and we'll see you next time. Follow for more.