Surviving The Bubble Pop With Gold, Silver & Platinum | Dave Collum
Summary
Dave Collum joins us to explain why he believes today’s markets are dangerously overvalued and built on unsustainable …
Transcript
Hello and welcome back to Sore Financially, a channel where we discuss the macro to understand the micro. I've invited a phenomenal guest today. Croc describes him as a sharp nononsense voice on finance. Think Austrian economics meets contrarian skepticism. I love that description of my guest because I love Dave Colum. I love having him on the program. He's a pragmatist. He's a libertarian and he thinks very differently than maybe the mainstream media does. So, it's really refreshing to have him on the program. What are we going to talk about? He was recently on Tucker Carlson. So, I'm quite quite interested uh to to hear about his experience there, but also we need to talk about the US economy. What is happening in the market? How stable is it? How topsy curvy are we perhaps? Should we be worried about a crash? And of course, gold and silver. What are the precious metals telling us right now in terms of price action? And what what does it mean overall? So, a lot lots to discuss in a very short time. But before I switch over to my guest, hit that like and subscribe button. helps us out tremendously. We much much appreciate it. Now, Dave, how are you? It's good to see you again. >> I'm good. I'm good. And uh and uh I we saw each other in New Orleans. I I don't schedule interviews there because I figure if I'm going to fly to New Orleans, I should probably do things that I can't do in my office. So, um so in any event, >> yeah. >> No, it makes a lot of sense. Always great to see you there in New Orleans as well. You you always hang around the green room with a lot of great people. I completely just park in the green room and everyone who's talking goes through the green room and we chat and then they go out and talk and I watch it on the screen and it's a it's a great place to view the whole meeting. >> Absolutely. No, I'm a bit jealous that you get to do that because uh I actually got to work when I'm there. >> Right. I know. You have a mouth to feed. >> Bummer. Exactly. Right. Steak isn't cheap. What was the saying? Right. So, >> yeah. >> Dave, it's it's great to have you back on the program, Dave. But um before we you know dive dive into the markets, precious metals and all of that, let's start with your interview that you've recently gave on Tucker Coulson. What was the experience like? Tell us a little bit about it. What was some of the feedback you got? >> Well, so the experience was interesting because I I must have it got put off a couple of times and I I must say that I did a little deep diving to make sure that I wasn't being duped, that someone wasn't wasn't Rick rolling me. And uh so I was actually rather relieved to get to the hotel and find they had a room for me waiting. Um Tucker offscreen is very similar to Tucker on screen so I didn't see some onoff switch. Um I intended to take Tucker places that I knew Tucker knew a lot about sort of dark topics, things like that. And so I I kind of moved like a u like I was had ADHD um on purpose and and and moved him to topic topic topic topic which I knew he would be able to chime in on or at least have an opinion. He has different sort of personality types when he interviews and he gave me the uh the I don't know what I'm doing but you do sort of delivery where I'll tell him something I know he knows and then he pretends like he doesn't know. Um, but there was some great feedback, some stuff that we talked about that I didn't know and it showed you how on top of it he was. Um, afterwards we talked about stuff that was so dark and I wasn't going to tell anyone what the topic was, but then he had a couple of he did a couple of podcasts and it was on satanic pedophile networks and things like that. And he was just he lit right up on that topic for about an hour and a half after the the talk. Um the feedback the feedback from those who who I think just watched it sincerely uh was very strong. Um I even got an email from a dean saying I loved it. I don't agree with everything but but it was really good and they like the the market part. Um, I I I made a comment that was really about World War II and about uh uh uh Stalin being a bad guy and and someone said you said it indelicately, but your point was that that that siding with Stalin is a highly questionable thing. Um the uh there's categories of of characters out here. You've got Jews, you've got Israelis, you've got the government of Israel, and you've got Zionists, and you've got rabid Zionists, right? The rabbid Zionist went at me, and and by virtue of the fact that I just used the word Hitler, um I quoted Patton actually, and they got bent out of shape. And so, you know, Mark Levin, uh, Ted Cruz, uh, some head of some national Jewish organization, whatever, they they they wrote some very, uh, un un untruthful things and they went at me and u, and so, you know, give me a baseball bat in 10 minutes with Mark Levin and Ted Cruz, and I would solve that problem very quickly. Um, and and then Victor Davis Hansen would at me, which was really interesting because he's a prominent historian. He was 0 for three in his his his criticisms. He was wrong in every criticism. And and then he kept going at me and I I I became clear to me that he had been called off the bench to attack Tucker using me as a proxy. And um and it was all about it was all about Zionism. And and you know, I I don't have a I've been agnostic on the subject my whole life. And but but now they're pissing me off. So, you know, whatever. You've lost one. How's that? They've lost one. >> Yeah. No, it's interesting. I I watched it as well. It's uh you know, it's always fun to to see somebody on on a popular I wouldn't say mainstream television, but a popular channel and uh >> you know, having the pleasure to interview here as well. So, it's a it's a privilege and I much appreciate it there. Dave, um >> let's talk about the economy. Let's talk about the markets. you know, the feedback from your dean apparently was was quite positive on it. Um, where are we? Overvalued equilibrium uh is a term that you've used or that has been used. Um, what do you make of that? Maybe explain that a little bit. >> I don't remember the equilibrium term, but um I I think we're overvalued by round number 200%. Um, the awful part of that is it it will take decades to grow out of that mess. Um, that's not to say it couldn't in a couple of years become back to fair value, but um but but decades from now we will be at the same price if we regress to the historical mean because you grow at 2 and a half% a year. How do you get to a 200%? How do you how do you make up the gap to growth? Uh it takes 45 years to do it at two and a half percent a year. So, and other metrics, you know, it's not just the Buffett metric. They all show that we're that overvalued. Um we're in the epic bubble which some people have called the everything bubble which conveys an important part of it and that is it's in every asset class. Um it's in real estate, commercial, residential, you know, uh it's in the the equity market. Um be very very careful about people who tell you this is cheap compared to this. Okay. Um your benchmark should be a historical one. So I use um K Schiller from 1880 to 1990 as my benchmark and compared to that we are 3x overvalued meaning 200%. So, uh, I think we have nothing but pain and suffering. It's some point in our future. And I think that there will be a point in time where you really wished you were not anywhere near this market. And at some fateful day, many years from now, maybe um it'll be the time that we're when you're most pessimistic will be a good time to buy. >> What has you most concerned now? like various different topics like or where where do you see the biggest cracks appear right now? Is it the debt? Is it inflation? Is it employment? Uh is it the personal like on the the personal consumer sentiment? Perhaps a credit card story. We we had an auto loan crisis here. We had auto manufacturer suppliers go belly up like where do you see the biggest cracks? Dave, >> you just you just made a nice list. Um, I see I I was on a panel discussion with guys who were way more qualified than me, at least according to a resume and some of them made the claim that AI wasn't a bubble and they were talking about how transformational it'll be. But I go, but that's not what defines a bubble. A bubble is when you're paying way too much for whatever that transformational asset is. I I actually think the NASDAQ, for example, is going to go back and test the five the the the 2000 high. I think it's gonna I think it's going to go down and find that level on an inflation adjusted basis. Um and and so what scares me? Well, I first and foremost, uh the entire boomer class, which is the source of the bubble, um because of the demographics, I think are going to are going to end up eating it pretty badly. and uh and they're they're they're they're going to get their their their savings gutted. They think they're okay now. They're not going to stay okay. Um the minute they start liquidating, the Mike Green passive flow model is going to reverse and and that's that's when the shit's really going to hit the fan in my opinion. So, and it's not going to be don't label this Dave calls a crash. I hate that. Dave never calls a crash. Dave doesn't think crash does does any good. You crash the the dip buyers show up. you are going to rot to death. You are going you are going to be a decayed carcass in a shallow grave um in this thing. Now I what I've been calling it is the complacency bubble because I you can't find anyone who doesn't know it's nuts, right? You can't find you can't find anyone who says, "Oh, the markets are really cheap now." You can find guys who will lie their ass off and say that to their customers because they want their big but but they're lying and they know they're lying. There's no one who could pass a lie detector test that doesn't think these markets are pretty nuts. and uh and at the same time they think they're going to be saved. And that's the part I disagree with. There has never been an overvalued market that didn't find its way back to cheap. This one will do so as well. Curiously, 09 was not cheap. That's the thing that people don't understand. 09 was at a reasonable valuation. We had fallen from space to get to reasonable valuation, but uh it was it was not cheap and especially given the damage that had been done to the banking system and the economy, but it was just based on PE ratios and things like that. Uh that was confirmed to me not just within my skull, but Jeremy Grantham said that. I had dinner one night with Mark Spitzagel and he said he said that it was below historical average valuation for about a month. in '09. So if you think 09's some benchmark of cheap, I that's your first big mistake in my opinion. >> This time is different. You know, there's a famous quote that always gets misused and it never is different or it's often the same. History rhymes. It never repeats and always >> but is it is always different also. That's the irony is there is always a difference. just this bubble this one for example the complacency component of the bubble means that we're never people who are waiting for euphoria the real sort of sincere unbridled euphoria I don't think you're going to find it I think you're going to find all the guys buying all the guys who are 100% long they're all going and I'm going to either get out or the Fed's going to protect me you know it's it it's not a 2000 euphoria it's not a 1929 it's not an EK1989 it's not a housing euphoria of of of 06 6 07 it it's it's a euphoria that of a kind that says the markets are screwed up but I will somehow be okay and you will not be in my opinion >> there's a very uh what is it terrifying precedent that was set when Silicon Valley Bank sort of went belly up but uh >> how' they how' they save it >> they just guaranteed the money for everybody right >> well I I guess so but there must have been a lot of money spent that we didn't get a lot of dollar values out of the system. I mean, they saved at 0809 by dropping $30 trillion into the global banking system. And so, so we at least have a number, right? Um I don't I don't I've not seen a good explanation. >> I don't maybe the private banks jumped in. I think JP Morgan, Wells Fargo bought up the little ones to say, >> I guess so, but they were pretty big regional banks. That could have been a cascading failure and they somehow stemmed it. So the thus complacency, it's like, see, they saved us. >> Well, they're not going to they're not going to be able to save you once it gets ugly. The Fed I think if I were a Fed governor, my biggest fear would be that I would attempt to save it and fail and be shown to be a feckless, neutered bureaucrat. And so they will step aside and not risk failure of their interventions. I think I think they'll let the fire burn out and then they'll bring in the hose and pretend like they put it out. >> It's always good showmanship usually out of Washington there. So, >> it's showing. >> Yeah. Um Dave, the only guest the other guest I really talk demographics with is Neil How uh you know, forth turning and all of that. Um on on that topic, you know, the boomers have a ton of money in their bank accounts. They ton of money saved up. Uh at one point, I think it was about a year ago, the topic came up like, "Oh, we need to get the boomers to spend their money." In Germany, we're trying to tax everything, left, right, and center right now. We're trying to find new sources of income. Um, how do you see that developing? Like, how safe is the money boomers? >> How do you spend your money? >> So, you've got >> Well, if you're a boomer, you've got you've got your money in a Vanguard index fund. To spend that money, what do you do? You sell it. You have to sell the index fund, right? You have to sell the bonds. You have to sell stuff because it's no one has sitting in in savings accounts. And so, so I believe that the the idea that the boomers are somehow going to transfer the money to the next generation with no adjustment for value, I think is a highly flawed bit of thinking. I could be wrong on this. I I I just I I have trouble imagining that this gigantic bololis of paper value is going to be transferable to the next generation without it being revalued because they do. Who's going to buy I I I own a house on the lake. What what 25year-old is going to be ready to buy my house from me when it's time to go to the nursing home, >> right? They don't have the money. >> No. >> Where's it going to come? >> We need low INTEREST RATES. NO, NO, NO, NO. WE NEED cheaper houses. >> Yeah. >> We need to let the system equilibrate. There's the equilibration. >> We need to let this So low interest rates is just a way of saving the boomers. >> No. >> What you want, I'll tell you what you want. If you're a boomer, your worst nightmare is dropping dropping asset value asset valuations, right? Pluming asset prices. If you're a 20some, 30ome, 40ome, that's that's what exactly you want. You want to be able to buy assets at a reasonable price. This is like right now we've got this gigantic pizza that the world's sharing and and you can buy a tiny little sliver of a slice for a fortune. How is that a good deal? You want the boomers to die off and leave the pizza to you. You're not going to grow the pizza. You're just going to have a higher share of it. So, the demographics are a problem. >> Yeah. Um, maybe as a counter counterargument here, uh, Donald Trump and the Michael the Dell family just joined forces um, wanting to give every kid and every newborn a brokerage account with some money in it to to invest. How is that counter counterbalancing what you just said? Is like, does it even have a chance to counterbalance it? >> You don't smell scam, right? >> I I I hear Ponzi that word keeps coming. >> No, no, no, no, no, no. So, Michael Bell giving$6 billion dollars. You don't think there's some sort of kickback? Federal government spends trillions upon trillions upon trillions. You don't think Michael Del's got a plan? And if if if we're just going to spend government money, we're just giving free money to the youngsters. It's just UBI basically, right? No, there's I haven't figured out what the scam is. But the minute I saw I go giving$6 billion dollars to the federal government is not charity. I don't know what it is. I don't know how how this is going to play out. I do not trust it one bit. Not at all. I And and it's based on no evidence of what they're up to, but they're up to something. It's like when your kids are upstairs and you can't hear anything. You go, there's not a shred of evidence they're in trouble. It's the silence that you go, I'm going upstairs to check to see what those kids are doing. Maybe the Dells are buying Tik Tok or something like that or some hardware deal. That's >> No, that's already been bought by Israel. >> Oh, Tik Tok has >> Yeah. Yeah. >> Yeah. I missed that one. >> Li Yeah. got bought by Larry Allison. >> Oh, that Okay. Yes. Like he he was Oracle was in the in the race for that. >> Israeli. He's an Israeli. >> For all intents and purposes, I'm a little pissed off. So, you're you're picking up a This is not anti-semitism. This is Larry Ellison's repulsive personism. >> This is Larry Ellison wanted to vaccinate everyone. This is Larry Ellison who who who pontificated the other day about how great it is that the world will be very well behaved because they'll monitor everything we do and they'll know what we're doing and therefore we won't misbehave. I go someone drive a truck over that guy and Larry Ellison Larry Ellison will make sure that the United States is second, Israel's first. And I don't like that. And I'm pissed off about that. And I I'm not anti-Semitic. I've never even thought twice about Israel. I've always said it's a tough place to be. And they've lost me. They've pissed me off. >> Yeah. It opens the doors to a whole lot of different conspiracy theories that >> it's not a conspiracy theory. No, they are conspiracing. >> That's it. Opens the door to the possibilities. >> I'm feared I'd tell I haven't about Dell yet. If someone knows this, send me an email. What is Dell up to? >> He, by the way, responded to me the other day on Twitter. Made no sense whatsoever. >> Why is he responding to me on Twitter? >> Like, what did he respond to? >> Well, I said that Dell's share price is up Xfold and their revenues are up Yfold and they didn't match at all. >> And he just kind of poked at it. He didn't actually refute it. He just kind of poked at me. >> Interesting. Interesting. Uh oh. Uh interesting. Let's keep coming back to the to the markets here, the economy real quick. Um what do you make of the consumer right now? It's Christmas season, of course. We just had Black Week, Black Friday, and all the online Cyber Monday and all the shenanigans, you know, behind us now. What do you make of the consumer? How healthy is the consumer right now, Dave? >> Well, I would consider them healthier if they spent less. Let's start with that. Spending is not a healthy consumer. A healthy consumer. You know how China did what it did as master plan? They saved half of everything they earned. That's how China that's how China came from from the Middle Ages to to to a dominant super economic superpower. They didn't use foreign capital. They saved their money. So the the a healthy consumer would not be dropping all sorts of money into Christmas. >> They say, "Okay, >> Germans did the same. By the way, our savings rate was extremely high." So, sorry to interrupt, but >> well, you guys saved our way out. >> The the Ger the Germans have found a way to screw up their economy in a totally unique way. So, that's that's a separate >> that's I was going to say that's a separate um rabbit hole. But just back on the consumer, sorry for jumping in there, Dave. >> I I don't know. But if they're if they're buying Christmas presents using using, you know, PGO plans, they can look healthy by virtue of fact they're spending money that they don't have. Is that a healthy consumer? No, that's not a healthy consumer, right? If you can order Door Dash and pay in four installments, that's not a healthy consumer. I I've been wondering about, you know, how you go into a convenience store and they're always says help wanted hiring. Is it possible that those are there but they're not actually hiring and that they're they're they're running leaner because to to because because things are not going well. And by the way, if I were running a convenience store and it was running like I would love to be able to say, "Well, here's the problem. We can't hire." And there's my alibi, right? McDonald's. I thought McDonald's was rocking and rolling the other. I thought about that. And after CO, I said, "These guys must be printing money. Look at how long the line is of cars waiting to go through the drive-thru. Then I realized the drive-through window is one cash register." And then the other day, I went through there. Don't ask me why. I'm on carnivore diet now because I go through McDonald's too many times. Um, it took three minutes per car. That's one cash register. Three minutes per car. You can really be faked out that the consumer is healthy. By the way, a breakfast meal costs like 12 bucks. I don't care how healthy the consumer is. I am really well off and I look at 12 bucks. I go that's ridiculous. someone who's, you know, swinging a hammer or something for a living. I They're They're going to look at 12 bucks and go, "I'll make eggs at home." >> Yeah. >> Their prices are coming down, by the way. Right. >> No, I don't think so. >> Egg prices haven't come down. >> Oh, egg egg prices McDonald's has not come down. >> No. Hasn't >> I'm a little grumpy right now. The other problem I have is if we're really at a high, let's say hypothetically we're at the top. Let's let's just say coincidentally you and I are filming at the day of the top, right? >> They're supposed to be euphoric. Does the world feel euphoric to you? >> Not at all. Not at all. I'm a little euphoric because I'm in precious metals, but that's it. >> Well, I But that's it. So, so my risk assets, the ones I control, there's stuff I I have some stuff I don't control. I've got fixed income, which basically you get 4% whether you like it or not. um and and and and a house which I I I have to include because it's worth too much money. Although who's going to buy it, right? I already made that case. But my the risk assets I control, I'm up 65% year to date and I'm grumpy because the market is broken and and the S&P is up something like 21%. Does anyone think the S&P grew the ability to produce wealth 21% this year? Does anyone think that from 2015 to the present where where where you know the the the mag seven have gone up 10x while their average revenues are up like 2x? Does anyone think that's normal? No, it's not normal. And I'm frustrated because I think I'm going to go to my grave not being given good opportunities. By the way, if you buy Philip Morris or something, when they hit the sell button on their S&P 500 index, Philip Morris is going to sell too because it's in the index. Now, the Mag Seven are going to nonlinearly get wed because they got nonlinearly boosted. But but when when when the average investor decides it's time and they're starting to get creeped out, they go, I I I've got to thin down now. I And if the market starts dropping, they go, if it drops anymore, I'm not going to be able to retire. So, I've got to get out of these goddamn markets, right? Everything they they always say everything sells, but that's because people panic and sell. You only have one choice in passive investing. You sell the whole market or nothing. You can't tease Nvidia out of there. You can't tease Tesla out of there. You can't tease Microsoft out of there. Apple. >> Apple hasn't invented anything new in how many years, 15 years, >> right? How many four trillion dollar companies are there? The Nvidia is now bigger than the market cap of of Japan. This has got to be the chapter of a textbook, right? It's got to be like the Imperial Palace being worth more than the state of California story. And and and I I at some point I think they're I think this we're going to hit a bottom when when Jensen Hang is in an orange jumpsuit. That's my suspicion. Yeah. No, it's uh it's headed that way. Like more more and more questions arising and we don't even need to talk about the circle jerk that they're producing there. Meaning they're just buying lending money to buy from themselves or from >> they call that illegal, >> right? Total fraud. Total fraud. Yeah. They're just lending lending them money. They buy the chips. They then use the chips as collateral to borrow more money to borrow buy more chips. You got Jensen Wang saying, "China's going to beat us in AI," which is code for Trump, give Sam Alman, who himself looks like AI. He He's got the dead eyee look of AI, to buy more chips from Jensen Hang. We should be just telling you AI guys to go jump off a cliff. And I know there could be a very real battle. Whoever wins wins and we have to win. This is the argument for nuclear weapons. This is the argument for a huge military. There's always the argument if we don't win they'll win and therefore >> Yeah. >> And so dump tons of money into AI. >> You need a common enemy to unite the people. Back to that topic, >> right? And and you're creating you're creating an infrastructure like the the you know electricity, this is a great comment actually made by Gunlock. Electricity was as transformational as anything we've ever seen in the history of mankind, right? The electricity stocks obviously did well at the turn of the century. They peaked in 1911. 1911 electricity was just getting started. May they peaked in 1911. The internet peaked before the internet actually did anything of real value. Right? 2000 the internet was in its infancy. Uh it's now up 7% a year annualized from the 2000 peak. Do you really think you should be able to make 7% a year off of a monumentally high fee? No. The answer is no. So, at some point, I'm going to be old and they're going to say, "Yeah, Dave called it. So what? He was too early. Broken clock. Blew the house up when the clock was right." But no one cares. >> I was going to ask you. You can tell. >> I love it. Like, like I'm so frustrated. I'm so frustrated looking at the clock cuz we got like three minutes left for the self-imposed 30 minute limit here. And I was going to talk to you about gold and silver, but I'm more keen on learning how you made 65% this year. I know you included the house, but the housing MARKET IS FAIRLY HIGH. >> NO, NO, NO, NO, NO. I don't consider that a risk asset. That's in my total assets. My risk assets are about half of my total assets and and that that's 65%. That's owning silver miners, gold miners, um, uh, gold, silver, platinum, um, platinum is a great bullish story. You want a BULLISH STORY? I'M NOT talking momentum. I'm talking a flatout bullish story. Platinum is a phenomenally bullish story based on fundamental logic that Graham and Dodd would love. >> So that's where I'd put you put a gun to my head and said buy something for bullish arguments, I'd buy more platinum, which I bought nine times this year. And I didn't buy anything else. I bought nothing else but platinum this year. >> And way more excited than silver or >> I already owned too much silver. But yeah, yeah, plat platinum has got way better fundamentals than any metal that I know based on what I can figure out. The above ground supply is minuscule. A small hedge fund could buy it all at current prices. It's it's it's it's been a deficit production for a number of years now. By some math, and I'm going to throw out a wild number because I'm going to get it wrong, but in some like three years, the above ground supply will be gone at the deficit at the current rate. You get it from South Africa and Russia. South Africa could shut down in a heartbeat. It's a failed state in the making. And it you're not going to not sell cars with catalytic converters with platinum in them because because because the platinum costs too much. You're just going to pay whatever you have to pay. And and and by the way, the hybrids use more platinum than internal combustion engines. So, as we go to hybrids, which are are I think the logical technology to go to, not EVs, hybrids, um, we're going to sell more platinum. >> Absolutely. Dave, just in the in the in the interest of time here, I I know you put out a yearly review and a yearly report once a year. You pulled the last one from your from your ex-p profofile, but give us a teaser. What do you plan to put into the 2025 edition? >> Uh, I'm my brain has locked up. I've been I've been in a a a fork in the road which you can hear in my frustration. I almost decided not to write anything. I decided that I had to write something. Um I don't want to talk about Trump. I don't want to talk about a lot of topics. I I almost don't want to talk about markets because I've been saying the same for years and at some point the Babson break's going to break. But it's it's it's you know I can only say it's overvalued so many times in a row. Um, and then and then like I I I I know a ton about the Charlie Kirk shooting, but it leads straight to Israel. So, I'm going to have the Zionist climbing up my ass like there's no tomorrow if I write about that. And so, it it's a great I am going to write about my Tucker Carlson experience and then the response to it because I'm that pissed off. >> And if Israel wants to come up my ass, let them come up my ass. They'll find nothing but up there. >> Some peanuts. So, um, >> some peanuts. That's a monkey joke right there. >> There there's Yeah. No, it's uh I went to South Park mentally. That wasn't good. Um Mr. Hanky. Um >> what's the release date? Do Do you have a release date in mind for the record? >> No. Uh no, I'm struggling. It's It is what it is. You know, it'll be ready. I I even think it's gonna suck. I mean, but I I always I always think that, but this year there's a good reason to believe it's gonna suck. And and I would actually just not write it, but there are so many people asking me about it. I go I got to I got to at least tell them why it sucks. I there's and so normally it's 250 to 300 pages. You you can't imagine the emotional purge it takes to write at the end of the year 300 pages. >> And and and I I that I've been hitching, right? I mean, like a robot who shortcircuited and you can't write 300 pages while you're mentally hitching going, I don't even know that's true. By the way, you know that that that bear that that mountain line that delivered it it's it it's it it's cub to your front doorstep. That's not a real video. I mean, is that is there anything you bet your life on is real? They just they're about to catch the guy put the pipe bomb in January 6. Do you believe it? I don't. >> They're going to frame some bastard. They're going to fry him. They're going to I don't trust the FBI. I don't trust there was 274 FBI guys at January 6th, right? They wouldn't admit there were any. Now, there's 274 January 6. There's Ukrainian operatives January 6. They lie about everything. Everything. So, how do I know what I'm writing isn't total >> Yeah. No, it's uh it's a challenge. It's absolutely >> If you want to TALK ABOUT JUST MARKETS, OH, let's write about markets where there are no liars on Wall Street. >> No. Right. >> No, it's all hunky dory. It's all hunky dory. >> Uh, it's all kumbaya and everything's going to the moon. >> Absolutely, >> Dave. Like, I hate to end this here. Like, that that was brilliant. I really enjoyed it. Thank you so much. Uh, you got your Twitter handle, Dave David B column. That's where we we'll send everybody. That's where they can find the report once you get to publishing it. >> Yes. >> So, >> I will I'll put out something. >> Dave, thank you so much. Happy like merry Christmas. Um I hope to catch up with you in the new year. Uh very soon in the new year to to maybe discuss your report a little bit in more detail. And >> last bit of financial advice, fastest way to go bankrupt is to be married to a grandmother. >> She will dump your entire net worth on those grandchildren. >> I see that. I I can see that by from my parents. So yeah, I believe that >> it'll happen. It'll happen. >> I see that. Yeah. No, I believe you. Fantastic. Dave, thank you so much. Merry Christmas. All the best for 2026. I can't wait to catch up with you again. All take care everybody else. Thank you so much for tuning in. What an awesome episode here with Dave Colum. Make sure to follow him over on X. Make sure to check out his report when it comes out. He said it's not worth reading, but uh I think it is. It will be. So go ahead and do that. And while you're at it, hit that like and subscribe button here as well. We tremendously appreciate it. and uh just appreciate the support. Thanks so much for tuning in. Take care out there. Be safe. Merry Christmas. Take care.
Surviving The Bubble Pop With Gold, Silver & Platinum | Dave Collum
Summary
Dave Collum joins us to explain why he believes today’s markets are dangerously overvalued and built on unsustainable …Transcript
Hello and welcome back to Sore Financially, a channel where we discuss the macro to understand the micro. I've invited a phenomenal guest today. Croc describes him as a sharp nononsense voice on finance. Think Austrian economics meets contrarian skepticism. I love that description of my guest because I love Dave Colum. I love having him on the program. He's a pragmatist. He's a libertarian and he thinks very differently than maybe the mainstream media does. So, it's really refreshing to have him on the program. What are we going to talk about? He was recently on Tucker Carlson. So, I'm quite quite interested uh to to hear about his experience there, but also we need to talk about the US economy. What is happening in the market? How stable is it? How topsy curvy are we perhaps? Should we be worried about a crash? And of course, gold and silver. What are the precious metals telling us right now in terms of price action? And what what does it mean overall? So, a lot lots to discuss in a very short time. But before I switch over to my guest, hit that like and subscribe button. helps us out tremendously. We much much appreciate it. Now, Dave, how are you? It's good to see you again. >> I'm good. I'm good. And uh and uh I we saw each other in New Orleans. I I don't schedule interviews there because I figure if I'm going to fly to New Orleans, I should probably do things that I can't do in my office. So, um so in any event, >> yeah. >> No, it makes a lot of sense. Always great to see you there in New Orleans as well. You you always hang around the green room with a lot of great people. I completely just park in the green room and everyone who's talking goes through the green room and we chat and then they go out and talk and I watch it on the screen and it's a it's a great place to view the whole meeting. >> Absolutely. No, I'm a bit jealous that you get to do that because uh I actually got to work when I'm there. >> Right. I know. You have a mouth to feed. >> Bummer. Exactly. Right. Steak isn't cheap. What was the saying? Right. So, >> yeah. >> Dave, it's it's great to have you back on the program, Dave. But um before we you know dive dive into the markets, precious metals and all of that, let's start with your interview that you've recently gave on Tucker Coulson. What was the experience like? Tell us a little bit about it. What was some of the feedback you got? >> Well, so the experience was interesting because I I must have it got put off a couple of times and I I must say that I did a little deep diving to make sure that I wasn't being duped, that someone wasn't wasn't Rick rolling me. And uh so I was actually rather relieved to get to the hotel and find they had a room for me waiting. Um Tucker offscreen is very similar to Tucker on screen so I didn't see some onoff switch. Um I intended to take Tucker places that I knew Tucker knew a lot about sort of dark topics, things like that. And so I I kind of moved like a u like I was had ADHD um on purpose and and and moved him to topic topic topic topic which I knew he would be able to chime in on or at least have an opinion. He has different sort of personality types when he interviews and he gave me the uh the I don't know what I'm doing but you do sort of delivery where I'll tell him something I know he knows and then he pretends like he doesn't know. Um, but there was some great feedback, some stuff that we talked about that I didn't know and it showed you how on top of it he was. Um, afterwards we talked about stuff that was so dark and I wasn't going to tell anyone what the topic was, but then he had a couple of he did a couple of podcasts and it was on satanic pedophile networks and things like that. And he was just he lit right up on that topic for about an hour and a half after the the talk. Um the feedback the feedback from those who who I think just watched it sincerely uh was very strong. Um I even got an email from a dean saying I loved it. I don't agree with everything but but it was really good and they like the the market part. Um, I I I made a comment that was really about World War II and about uh uh uh Stalin being a bad guy and and someone said you said it indelicately, but your point was that that that siding with Stalin is a highly questionable thing. Um the uh there's categories of of characters out here. You've got Jews, you've got Israelis, you've got the government of Israel, and you've got Zionists, and you've got rabid Zionists, right? The rabbid Zionist went at me, and and by virtue of the fact that I just used the word Hitler, um I quoted Patton actually, and they got bent out of shape. And so, you know, Mark Levin, uh, Ted Cruz, uh, some head of some national Jewish organization, whatever, they they they wrote some very, uh, un un untruthful things and they went at me and u, and so, you know, give me a baseball bat in 10 minutes with Mark Levin and Ted Cruz, and I would solve that problem very quickly. Um, and and then Victor Davis Hansen would at me, which was really interesting because he's a prominent historian. He was 0 for three in his his his criticisms. He was wrong in every criticism. And and then he kept going at me and I I I became clear to me that he had been called off the bench to attack Tucker using me as a proxy. And um and it was all about it was all about Zionism. And and you know, I I don't have a I've been agnostic on the subject my whole life. And but but now they're pissing me off. So, you know, whatever. You've lost one. How's that? They've lost one. >> Yeah. No, it's interesting. I I watched it as well. It's uh you know, it's always fun to to see somebody on on a popular I wouldn't say mainstream television, but a popular channel and uh >> you know, having the pleasure to interview here as well. So, it's a it's a privilege and I much appreciate it there. Dave, um >> let's talk about the economy. Let's talk about the markets. you know, the feedback from your dean apparently was was quite positive on it. Um, where are we? Overvalued equilibrium uh is a term that you've used or that has been used. Um, what do you make of that? Maybe explain that a little bit. >> I don't remember the equilibrium term, but um I I think we're overvalued by round number 200%. Um, the awful part of that is it it will take decades to grow out of that mess. Um, that's not to say it couldn't in a couple of years become back to fair value, but um but but decades from now we will be at the same price if we regress to the historical mean because you grow at 2 and a half% a year. How do you get to a 200%? How do you how do you make up the gap to growth? Uh it takes 45 years to do it at two and a half percent a year. So, and other metrics, you know, it's not just the Buffett metric. They all show that we're that overvalued. Um we're in the epic bubble which some people have called the everything bubble which conveys an important part of it and that is it's in every asset class. Um it's in real estate, commercial, residential, you know, uh it's in the the equity market. Um be very very careful about people who tell you this is cheap compared to this. Okay. Um your benchmark should be a historical one. So I use um K Schiller from 1880 to 1990 as my benchmark and compared to that we are 3x overvalued meaning 200%. So, uh, I think we have nothing but pain and suffering. It's some point in our future. And I think that there will be a point in time where you really wished you were not anywhere near this market. And at some fateful day, many years from now, maybe um it'll be the time that we're when you're most pessimistic will be a good time to buy. >> What has you most concerned now? like various different topics like or where where do you see the biggest cracks appear right now? Is it the debt? Is it inflation? Is it employment? Uh is it the personal like on the the personal consumer sentiment? Perhaps a credit card story. We we had an auto loan crisis here. We had auto manufacturer suppliers go belly up like where do you see the biggest cracks? Dave, >> you just you just made a nice list. Um, I see I I was on a panel discussion with guys who were way more qualified than me, at least according to a resume and some of them made the claim that AI wasn't a bubble and they were talking about how transformational it'll be. But I go, but that's not what defines a bubble. A bubble is when you're paying way too much for whatever that transformational asset is. I I actually think the NASDAQ, for example, is going to go back and test the five the the the 2000 high. I think it's gonna I think it's going to go down and find that level on an inflation adjusted basis. Um and and so what scares me? Well, I first and foremost, uh the entire boomer class, which is the source of the bubble, um because of the demographics, I think are going to are going to end up eating it pretty badly. and uh and they're they're they're they're going to get their their their savings gutted. They think they're okay now. They're not going to stay okay. Um the minute they start liquidating, the Mike Green passive flow model is going to reverse and and that's that's when the shit's really going to hit the fan in my opinion. So, and it's not going to be don't label this Dave calls a crash. I hate that. Dave never calls a crash. Dave doesn't think crash does does any good. You crash the the dip buyers show up. you are going to rot to death. You are going you are going to be a decayed carcass in a shallow grave um in this thing. Now I what I've been calling it is the complacency bubble because I you can't find anyone who doesn't know it's nuts, right? You can't find you can't find anyone who says, "Oh, the markets are really cheap now." You can find guys who will lie their ass off and say that to their customers because they want their big but but they're lying and they know they're lying. There's no one who could pass a lie detector test that doesn't think these markets are pretty nuts. and uh and at the same time they think they're going to be saved. And that's the part I disagree with. There has never been an overvalued market that didn't find its way back to cheap. This one will do so as well. Curiously, 09 was not cheap. That's the thing that people don't understand. 09 was at a reasonable valuation. We had fallen from space to get to reasonable valuation, but uh it was it was not cheap and especially given the damage that had been done to the banking system and the economy, but it was just based on PE ratios and things like that. Uh that was confirmed to me not just within my skull, but Jeremy Grantham said that. I had dinner one night with Mark Spitzagel and he said he said that it was below historical average valuation for about a month. in '09. So if you think 09's some benchmark of cheap, I that's your first big mistake in my opinion. >> This time is different. You know, there's a famous quote that always gets misused and it never is different or it's often the same. History rhymes. It never repeats and always >> but is it is always different also. That's the irony is there is always a difference. just this bubble this one for example the complacency component of the bubble means that we're never people who are waiting for euphoria the real sort of sincere unbridled euphoria I don't think you're going to find it I think you're going to find all the guys buying all the guys who are 100% long they're all going and I'm going to either get out or the Fed's going to protect me you know it's it it's not a 2000 euphoria it's not a 1929 it's not an EK1989 it's not a housing euphoria of of of 06 6 07 it it's it's a euphoria that of a kind that says the markets are screwed up but I will somehow be okay and you will not be in my opinion >> there's a very uh what is it terrifying precedent that was set when Silicon Valley Bank sort of went belly up but uh >> how' they how' they save it >> they just guaranteed the money for everybody right >> well I I guess so but there must have been a lot of money spent that we didn't get a lot of dollar values out of the system. I mean, they saved at 0809 by dropping $30 trillion into the global banking system. And so, so we at least have a number, right? Um I don't I don't I've not seen a good explanation. >> I don't maybe the private banks jumped in. I think JP Morgan, Wells Fargo bought up the little ones to say, >> I guess so, but they were pretty big regional banks. That could have been a cascading failure and they somehow stemmed it. So the thus complacency, it's like, see, they saved us. >> Well, they're not going to they're not going to be able to save you once it gets ugly. The Fed I think if I were a Fed governor, my biggest fear would be that I would attempt to save it and fail and be shown to be a feckless, neutered bureaucrat. And so they will step aside and not risk failure of their interventions. I think I think they'll let the fire burn out and then they'll bring in the hose and pretend like they put it out. >> It's always good showmanship usually out of Washington there. So, >> it's showing. >> Yeah. Um Dave, the only guest the other guest I really talk demographics with is Neil How uh you know, forth turning and all of that. Um on on that topic, you know, the boomers have a ton of money in their bank accounts. They ton of money saved up. Uh at one point, I think it was about a year ago, the topic came up like, "Oh, we need to get the boomers to spend their money." In Germany, we're trying to tax everything, left, right, and center right now. We're trying to find new sources of income. Um, how do you see that developing? Like, how safe is the money boomers? >> How do you spend your money? >> So, you've got >> Well, if you're a boomer, you've got you've got your money in a Vanguard index fund. To spend that money, what do you do? You sell it. You have to sell the index fund, right? You have to sell the bonds. You have to sell stuff because it's no one has sitting in in savings accounts. And so, so I believe that the the idea that the boomers are somehow going to transfer the money to the next generation with no adjustment for value, I think is a highly flawed bit of thinking. I could be wrong on this. I I I just I I have trouble imagining that this gigantic bololis of paper value is going to be transferable to the next generation without it being revalued because they do. Who's going to buy I I I own a house on the lake. What what 25year-old is going to be ready to buy my house from me when it's time to go to the nursing home, >> right? They don't have the money. >> No. >> Where's it going to come? >> We need low INTEREST RATES. NO, NO, NO, NO. WE NEED cheaper houses. >> Yeah. >> We need to let the system equilibrate. There's the equilibration. >> We need to let this So low interest rates is just a way of saving the boomers. >> No. >> What you want, I'll tell you what you want. If you're a boomer, your worst nightmare is dropping dropping asset value asset valuations, right? Pluming asset prices. If you're a 20some, 30ome, 40ome, that's that's what exactly you want. You want to be able to buy assets at a reasonable price. This is like right now we've got this gigantic pizza that the world's sharing and and you can buy a tiny little sliver of a slice for a fortune. How is that a good deal? You want the boomers to die off and leave the pizza to you. You're not going to grow the pizza. You're just going to have a higher share of it. So, the demographics are a problem. >> Yeah. Um, maybe as a counter counterargument here, uh, Donald Trump and the Michael the Dell family just joined forces um, wanting to give every kid and every newborn a brokerage account with some money in it to to invest. How is that counter counterbalancing what you just said? Is like, does it even have a chance to counterbalance it? >> You don't smell scam, right? >> I I I hear Ponzi that word keeps coming. >> No, no, no, no, no, no. So, Michael Bell giving$6 billion dollars. You don't think there's some sort of kickback? Federal government spends trillions upon trillions upon trillions. You don't think Michael Del's got a plan? And if if if we're just going to spend government money, we're just giving free money to the youngsters. It's just UBI basically, right? No, there's I haven't figured out what the scam is. But the minute I saw I go giving$6 billion dollars to the federal government is not charity. I don't know what it is. I don't know how how this is going to play out. I do not trust it one bit. Not at all. I And and it's based on no evidence of what they're up to, but they're up to something. It's like when your kids are upstairs and you can't hear anything. You go, there's not a shred of evidence they're in trouble. It's the silence that you go, I'm going upstairs to check to see what those kids are doing. Maybe the Dells are buying Tik Tok or something like that or some hardware deal. That's >> No, that's already been bought by Israel. >> Oh, Tik Tok has >> Yeah. Yeah. >> Yeah. I missed that one. >> Li Yeah. got bought by Larry Allison. >> Oh, that Okay. Yes. Like he he was Oracle was in the in the race for that. >> Israeli. He's an Israeli. >> For all intents and purposes, I'm a little pissed off. So, you're you're picking up a This is not anti-semitism. This is Larry Ellison's repulsive personism. >> This is Larry Ellison wanted to vaccinate everyone. This is Larry Ellison who who who pontificated the other day about how great it is that the world will be very well behaved because they'll monitor everything we do and they'll know what we're doing and therefore we won't misbehave. I go someone drive a truck over that guy and Larry Ellison Larry Ellison will make sure that the United States is second, Israel's first. And I don't like that. And I'm pissed off about that. And I I'm not anti-Semitic. I've never even thought twice about Israel. I've always said it's a tough place to be. And they've lost me. They've pissed me off. >> Yeah. It opens the doors to a whole lot of different conspiracy theories that >> it's not a conspiracy theory. No, they are conspiracing. >> That's it. Opens the door to the possibilities. >> I'm feared I'd tell I haven't about Dell yet. If someone knows this, send me an email. What is Dell up to? >> He, by the way, responded to me the other day on Twitter. Made no sense whatsoever. >> Why is he responding to me on Twitter? >> Like, what did he respond to? >> Well, I said that Dell's share price is up Xfold and their revenues are up Yfold and they didn't match at all. >> And he just kind of poked at it. He didn't actually refute it. He just kind of poked at me. >> Interesting. Interesting. Uh oh. Uh interesting. Let's keep coming back to the to the markets here, the economy real quick. Um what do you make of the consumer right now? It's Christmas season, of course. We just had Black Week, Black Friday, and all the online Cyber Monday and all the shenanigans, you know, behind us now. What do you make of the consumer? How healthy is the consumer right now, Dave? >> Well, I would consider them healthier if they spent less. Let's start with that. Spending is not a healthy consumer. A healthy consumer. You know how China did what it did as master plan? They saved half of everything they earned. That's how China that's how China came from from the Middle Ages to to to a dominant super economic superpower. They didn't use foreign capital. They saved their money. So the the a healthy consumer would not be dropping all sorts of money into Christmas. >> They say, "Okay, >> Germans did the same. By the way, our savings rate was extremely high." So, sorry to interrupt, but >> well, you guys saved our way out. >> The the Ger the Germans have found a way to screw up their economy in a totally unique way. So, that's that's a separate >> that's I was going to say that's a separate um rabbit hole. But just back on the consumer, sorry for jumping in there, Dave. >> I I don't know. But if they're if they're buying Christmas presents using using, you know, PGO plans, they can look healthy by virtue of fact they're spending money that they don't have. Is that a healthy consumer? No, that's not a healthy consumer, right? If you can order Door Dash and pay in four installments, that's not a healthy consumer. I I've been wondering about, you know, how you go into a convenience store and they're always says help wanted hiring. Is it possible that those are there but they're not actually hiring and that they're they're they're running leaner because to to because because things are not going well. And by the way, if I were running a convenience store and it was running like I would love to be able to say, "Well, here's the problem. We can't hire." And there's my alibi, right? McDonald's. I thought McDonald's was rocking and rolling the other. I thought about that. And after CO, I said, "These guys must be printing money. Look at how long the line is of cars waiting to go through the drive-thru. Then I realized the drive-through window is one cash register." And then the other day, I went through there. Don't ask me why. I'm on carnivore diet now because I go through McDonald's too many times. Um, it took three minutes per car. That's one cash register. Three minutes per car. You can really be faked out that the consumer is healthy. By the way, a breakfast meal costs like 12 bucks. I don't care how healthy the consumer is. I am really well off and I look at 12 bucks. I go that's ridiculous. someone who's, you know, swinging a hammer or something for a living. I They're They're going to look at 12 bucks and go, "I'll make eggs at home." >> Yeah. >> Their prices are coming down, by the way. Right. >> No, I don't think so. >> Egg prices haven't come down. >> Oh, egg egg prices McDonald's has not come down. >> No. Hasn't >> I'm a little grumpy right now. The other problem I have is if we're really at a high, let's say hypothetically we're at the top. Let's let's just say coincidentally you and I are filming at the day of the top, right? >> They're supposed to be euphoric. Does the world feel euphoric to you? >> Not at all. Not at all. I'm a little euphoric because I'm in precious metals, but that's it. >> Well, I But that's it. So, so my risk assets, the ones I control, there's stuff I I have some stuff I don't control. I've got fixed income, which basically you get 4% whether you like it or not. um and and and and a house which I I I have to include because it's worth too much money. Although who's going to buy it, right? I already made that case. But my the risk assets I control, I'm up 65% year to date and I'm grumpy because the market is broken and and the S&P is up something like 21%. Does anyone think the S&P grew the ability to produce wealth 21% this year? Does anyone think that from 2015 to the present where where where you know the the the mag seven have gone up 10x while their average revenues are up like 2x? Does anyone think that's normal? No, it's not normal. And I'm frustrated because I think I'm going to go to my grave not being given good opportunities. By the way, if you buy Philip Morris or something, when they hit the sell button on their S&P 500 index, Philip Morris is going to sell too because it's in the index. Now, the Mag Seven are going to nonlinearly get wed because they got nonlinearly boosted. But but when when when the average investor decides it's time and they're starting to get creeped out, they go, I I I've got to thin down now. I And if the market starts dropping, they go, if it drops anymore, I'm not going to be able to retire. So, I've got to get out of these goddamn markets, right? Everything they they always say everything sells, but that's because people panic and sell. You only have one choice in passive investing. You sell the whole market or nothing. You can't tease Nvidia out of there. You can't tease Tesla out of there. You can't tease Microsoft out of there. Apple. >> Apple hasn't invented anything new in how many years, 15 years, >> right? How many four trillion dollar companies are there? The Nvidia is now bigger than the market cap of of Japan. This has got to be the chapter of a textbook, right? It's got to be like the Imperial Palace being worth more than the state of California story. And and and I I at some point I think they're I think this we're going to hit a bottom when when Jensen Hang is in an orange jumpsuit. That's my suspicion. Yeah. No, it's uh it's headed that way. Like more more and more questions arising and we don't even need to talk about the circle jerk that they're producing there. Meaning they're just buying lending money to buy from themselves or from >> they call that illegal, >> right? Total fraud. Total fraud. Yeah. They're just lending lending them money. They buy the chips. They then use the chips as collateral to borrow more money to borrow buy more chips. You got Jensen Wang saying, "China's going to beat us in AI," which is code for Trump, give Sam Alman, who himself looks like AI. He He's got the dead eyee look of AI, to buy more chips from Jensen Hang. We should be just telling you AI guys to go jump off a cliff. And I know there could be a very real battle. Whoever wins wins and we have to win. This is the argument for nuclear weapons. This is the argument for a huge military. There's always the argument if we don't win they'll win and therefore >> Yeah. >> And so dump tons of money into AI. >> You need a common enemy to unite the people. Back to that topic, >> right? And and you're creating you're creating an infrastructure like the the you know electricity, this is a great comment actually made by Gunlock. Electricity was as transformational as anything we've ever seen in the history of mankind, right? The electricity stocks obviously did well at the turn of the century. They peaked in 1911. 1911 electricity was just getting started. May they peaked in 1911. The internet peaked before the internet actually did anything of real value. Right? 2000 the internet was in its infancy. Uh it's now up 7% a year annualized from the 2000 peak. Do you really think you should be able to make 7% a year off of a monumentally high fee? No. The answer is no. So, at some point, I'm going to be old and they're going to say, "Yeah, Dave called it. So what? He was too early. Broken clock. Blew the house up when the clock was right." But no one cares. >> I was going to ask you. You can tell. >> I love it. Like, like I'm so frustrated. I'm so frustrated looking at the clock cuz we got like three minutes left for the self-imposed 30 minute limit here. And I was going to talk to you about gold and silver, but I'm more keen on learning how you made 65% this year. I know you included the house, but the housing MARKET IS FAIRLY HIGH. >> NO, NO, NO, NO, NO. I don't consider that a risk asset. That's in my total assets. My risk assets are about half of my total assets and and that that's 65%. That's owning silver miners, gold miners, um, uh, gold, silver, platinum, um, platinum is a great bullish story. You want a BULLISH STORY? I'M NOT talking momentum. I'm talking a flatout bullish story. Platinum is a phenomenally bullish story based on fundamental logic that Graham and Dodd would love. >> So that's where I'd put you put a gun to my head and said buy something for bullish arguments, I'd buy more platinum, which I bought nine times this year. And I didn't buy anything else. I bought nothing else but platinum this year. >> And way more excited than silver or >> I already owned too much silver. But yeah, yeah, plat platinum has got way better fundamentals than any metal that I know based on what I can figure out. The above ground supply is minuscule. A small hedge fund could buy it all at current prices. It's it's it's it's been a deficit production for a number of years now. By some math, and I'm going to throw out a wild number because I'm going to get it wrong, but in some like three years, the above ground supply will be gone at the deficit at the current rate. You get it from South Africa and Russia. South Africa could shut down in a heartbeat. It's a failed state in the making. And it you're not going to not sell cars with catalytic converters with platinum in them because because because the platinum costs too much. You're just going to pay whatever you have to pay. And and and by the way, the hybrids use more platinum than internal combustion engines. So, as we go to hybrids, which are are I think the logical technology to go to, not EVs, hybrids, um, we're going to sell more platinum. >> Absolutely. Dave, just in the in the in the interest of time here, I I know you put out a yearly review and a yearly report once a year. You pulled the last one from your from your ex-p profofile, but give us a teaser. What do you plan to put into the 2025 edition? >> Uh, I'm my brain has locked up. I've been I've been in a a a fork in the road which you can hear in my frustration. I almost decided not to write anything. I decided that I had to write something. Um I don't want to talk about Trump. I don't want to talk about a lot of topics. I I almost don't want to talk about markets because I've been saying the same for years and at some point the Babson break's going to break. But it's it's it's you know I can only say it's overvalued so many times in a row. Um, and then and then like I I I I know a ton about the Charlie Kirk shooting, but it leads straight to Israel. So, I'm going to have the Zionist climbing up my ass like there's no tomorrow if I write about that. And so, it it's a great I am going to write about my Tucker Carlson experience and then the response to it because I'm that pissed off. >> And if Israel wants to come up my ass, let them come up my ass. They'll find nothing but up there. >> Some peanuts. So, um, >> some peanuts. That's a monkey joke right there. >> There there's Yeah. No, it's uh I went to South Park mentally. That wasn't good. Um Mr. Hanky. Um >> what's the release date? Do Do you have a release date in mind for the record? >> No. Uh no, I'm struggling. It's It is what it is. You know, it'll be ready. I I even think it's gonna suck. I mean, but I I always I always think that, but this year there's a good reason to believe it's gonna suck. And and I would actually just not write it, but there are so many people asking me about it. I go I got to I got to at least tell them why it sucks. I there's and so normally it's 250 to 300 pages. You you can't imagine the emotional purge it takes to write at the end of the year 300 pages. >> And and and I I that I've been hitching, right? I mean, like a robot who shortcircuited and you can't write 300 pages while you're mentally hitching going, I don't even know that's true. By the way, you know that that that bear that that mountain line that delivered it it's it it's it it's cub to your front doorstep. That's not a real video. I mean, is that is there anything you bet your life on is real? They just they're about to catch the guy put the pipe bomb in January 6. Do you believe it? I don't. >> They're going to frame some bastard. They're going to fry him. They're going to I don't trust the FBI. I don't trust there was 274 FBI guys at January 6th, right? They wouldn't admit there were any. Now, there's 274 January 6. There's Ukrainian operatives January 6. They lie about everything. Everything. So, how do I know what I'm writing isn't total >> Yeah. No, it's uh it's a challenge. It's absolutely >> If you want to TALK ABOUT JUST MARKETS, OH, let's write about markets where there are no liars on Wall Street. >> No. Right. >> No, it's all hunky dory. It's all hunky dory. >> Uh, it's all kumbaya and everything's going to the moon. >> Absolutely, >> Dave. Like, I hate to end this here. Like, that that was brilliant. I really enjoyed it. Thank you so much. Uh, you got your Twitter handle, Dave David B column. That's where we we'll send everybody. That's where they can find the report once you get to publishing it. >> Yes. >> So, >> I will I'll put out something. >> Dave, thank you so much. Happy like merry Christmas. Um I hope to catch up with you in the new year. Uh very soon in the new year to to maybe discuss your report a little bit in more detail. And >> last bit of financial advice, fastest way to go bankrupt is to be married to a grandmother. >> She will dump your entire net worth on those grandchildren. >> I see that. I I can see that by from my parents. So yeah, I believe that >> it'll happen. It'll happen. >> I see that. Yeah. No, I believe you. Fantastic. Dave, thank you so much. Merry Christmas. All the best for 2026. I can't wait to catch up with you again. All take care everybody else. Thank you so much for tuning in. What an awesome episode here with Dave Colum. Make sure to follow him over on X. Make sure to check out his report when it comes out. He said it's not worth reading, but uh I think it is. It will be. So go ahead and do that. And while you're at it, hit that like and subscribe button here as well. We tremendously appreciate it. and uh just appreciate the support. Thanks so much for tuning in. Take care out there. Be safe. Merry Christmas. Take care.