| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
ByteTree's Multi-Asset Investor strategy prioritizes capital preservation amid heightened geopolitical tensions following oil shock from Middle East conflicts. Manager Charlie Morris reduced equity exposure across both Whisky and Soda portfolios, moving from fully invested to defensive positioning. The oil shock triggered market selloff with gold bearing the brunt, while bond yields surged alongside oil prices. Portfolio changes included selling REITs, reducing precious metals exposure, and adding diversifiers in energy, grains, and yen. Quality stock holdings like Diageo and Unilever have disappointed due to luxury goods exposure and deal-making concerns respectively. Key risks include richly valued US equities, private credit market stress, and AI-driven employment pressures. Manager expects commodity prices to remain elevated due to ongoing Straits of Hormuz closure and attacks on oil infrastructure. Strategy maintains exposure to energy, commodities, and quality stocks while building recovery list of 30 undervalued companies. Focus remains on preserving capital until war ends and economic recovery becomes visible, when abundant opportunities are expected to emerge.
Capital preservation is paramount during this period of elevated geopolitical risk and market uncertainty, with focus on defensive positioning through reduced equity exposure, commodity diversification, and quality stock selection until clearer path to recovery emerges.
Manager intends to maintain cautious stance on market exposure until war is over and green shoots of economic recovery are within sight. Focus is on capital preservation over gains in short term, with plan to preserve capital until better times when opportunities will be abundant. Recovery list of 30 companies is being built for when conditions improve.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8 2026 | 2026 Q1 | DEO, UL | commodities, Defensive, diversification, gold, Multi-Asset, oil, Quality, risk management |
DGE.L ULVR.L |
ByteTree shifts to defensive positioning following oil shock, reducing equity exposure and adding commodity diversifiers. Manager prioritizes capital preservation over gains amid geopolitical uncertainty, maintaining exposure to energy, quality stocks, and building recovery watchlist. Strategy awaits war resolution and economic recovery signals before redeploying capital into abundant opportunities expected to emerge. |
| Jan 7 2026 | 2025 Q4 | BARRY.SW, BHMG.L, BRWM.L, DEO, NESN.SW, PHP.L, RCP.L | commodities, diversification, Dollar, global, gold, Japan, Quality, value | - | Morris delivered 39% returns through global diversification and value investing while warning of US equity bubble at 39.8x CAPE ratio. Weak dollar drove international outperformance with Europe up 26% versus US 9.2%. Gold led all markets on geopolitical concerns. Strategy focuses on Japanese normalization, commodity cycle broadening, and quality companies while reducing precious metals exposure from peak levels. |
| Oct 5 2025 | 2025 Q3 | DEO, SMWH.L | Bitcoin, diversification, global, gold, Hard assets, Multi-Asset, Outperformance, Quality | - | ByteTree's multi-asset approach delivered 31.1% returns in 2025, significantly outperforming benchmarks through strategic positioning in hard assets like gold and Bitcoin, global diversification away from expensive US markets, and quality stock selection. Despite elevated market valuations, the manager maintains conviction in diversified portfolios emphasizing value, quality, and patience for long-term wealth creation. |
| Jul 6 2025 | 2025 Q2 | - | AI, diversification, growth, long-term, Optimism, Valuations | - | Financial Synergies makes a case for optimism in Q3 2025, highlighting declining rates, controlled inflation, and steady growth. While market valuations are elevated at 38x Shiller P/E, the firm emphasizes diversification across styles and sectors. AI represents significant opportunity despite concerns. Long-term patient investing continues to reward optimism and progress over time. |
| Apr 16 2025 | 2025 Q1 | - | Estate Planning, financial planning, Market Highs, Wealth management | - | Financial Synergies quarterly newsletter covers their internship program, estate planning guidance, and market commentary. Key insight: investing at market all-time highs has historically produced solid returns, with the S&P 500 delivering 9.4% average 1-year forward returns versus 9.1% for all periods. The firm emphasizes holistic wealth management addressing both technical and emotional client needs. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 |
OilOil shock changed market dynamics as missile strikes triggered surge in oil prices alongside bond yields. Manager expects commodity prices to be much higher over coming months and years due to ongoing conflicts affecting Straits of Hormuz and attacks on Russian oil exports. |
Energy Geopolitical Inflation Supply Chain |
GoldGold bore the brunt of the market selloff following the oil shock. Manager previously reduced precious metals exposure in late 2025 and continues to view gold as part of broader commodity diversification strategy for inflationary protection. |
Precious Metals Safe Haven Inflation Hedge | |
QualityManager shifted toward attractively priced, high-quality stocks that would prove resilient during slowdown and lower-interest-rate environment. Quality stocks have been stable as globally diversified businesses, though Diageo and Unilever have disappointed due to luxury goods exposure and deal-making concerns. |
Defensive Resilience Global Stability | |
AIAI impact on employment cannot be underestimated with job cuts driven by AI efficiencies creating pressure on jobs market. Data shows major global public companies employed 70 million people in 2019, now dropped to 65 million, while market values are 85% higher, demonstrating how rising stockmarkets don't create jobs like they used to. |
Employment Efficiency Technology Disruption | |
Private CreditSigns of stress in private credit markets, a shadow bank asset class that has ballooned in recent years. Some private credit funds have closed their doors, and the scale of the problem is unknown because these markets are private and lack disclosure. |
Credit Stress Shadow Banking Risk Disclosure | |
| 2025 Q4 |
GoldGold beat all major equity markets in 2025, driven primarily by geopolitical concerns and record purchases by the People's Bank of China seeking neutral reserve assets. The Whisky Portfolio held gold mining stocks and silver, with precious metals exposure reaching 38% in October before being reduced to 20.6%. |
Gold Miners Silver Central Banks Geopolitical |
ValueManager focuses on deep value investing, citing GMO's preference for value strategies and building diversified portfolios representing good value across countries, asset classes, and sectors. The approach consistently finds opportunities backed by fundamental value. |
Deep Value Fundamental Analysis Diversification | |
CommoditiesManager remains bullish on commodities broadly, noting they tend to move as a group and expects this cycle will prove similar. Focus is on broadening exposure to industrial metals and eventually other commodities including energy and agriculture. |
Industrial Metals Energy Agriculture Cycles | |
JapanJapan remains a high-conviction overweight position. The normalisation of the bond market with a cheap currency should lead to strong long-term performance. Japanese equities have been the worst place to invest since 1990, and this should change. |
Currency Bond Market Normalization | |
CryptoBitcoin fell 13.1% in 2025, with weakness coming late in Q4 alongside pullback in technology and high-volatility stocks. Despite being normally inversely sensitive to the dollar, Bitcoin declined even as the dollar weakened. Whisky made considerable gains in crypto-related equities. |
Bitcoin Volatility Technology | |
| 2025 Q3 |
GoldGold led the world in 2025 with a 19.3% rally in Q3, closely followed by Bitcoin. The manager views hard assets as more likely to slow than reverse, with the risk being balanced government budgets that would stop investors from trying to exit the system. |
Gold Hard Assets Inflation Store of Value Monetary Policy |
CryptoBitcoin closely followed gold's performance and is viewed as a hard asset alongside precious metals. The crypto ban in the UK is ending in October, which the manager sees as an exciting development. |
Bitcoin Crypto Digital Assets Hard Assets UK Regulation | |
SilverSilver delivered exceptional performance with a 32% rally in Q3, significantly outperforming most other asset classes and contributing meaningfully to portfolio returns. |
Silver Precious Metals Hard Assets Commodities Performance | |
QualityQuality investing is out of favor, having underperformed the US index by the largest amount in 12 years. The manager believes this presents an opportune time to build a portfolio of long-term winners and launched the ByteTree Quality Portfolio in August 2025. |
Quality Value Long-term Underperformance Opportunity | |
| 2025 Q2 |
AIAI represents incredible potential from curing diseases to improving productivity to reshaping how we live and work. The rapid rise of artificial intelligence is unsettling at times but offers endless opportunities. Current AI-related companies are well established with strong profitability and healthy balance sheets, unlike unprofitable dot-com companies of the past. |
Technology Innovation Productivity Growth Disruption |
ValuationsCurrent market valuations are high by historical standards with the Shiller P/E ratio at 38x versus the average of 27x. While stocks appear expensive, valuations don't reliably predict near-term returns and markets can continue rising if fundamentals remain strong. Opportunities exist across different styles and sizes with Large Value and Small Caps having more attractive valuations. |
Price-to-earnings Expensive Historical Fundamentals Opportunities |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2026 | Fund Letters | ByteTree Asset Management | DGE.L | Diageo | Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries | Distillers & Vintners | Neutral | New York Stock Exchange | consumer spending, defensive, Luxury goods, premium spirits, premiumization, Quality Stock | Login |
| Apr 8, 2026 | Fund Letters | ByteTree Asset Management | ULVR.L | Unilever | Household & Personal Products | Personal Products | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | consumer goods, contrarian, Deal-making, Quality Stock, undervalued, Value Investment | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| DEO | Diageo's woes are not so much down to reduced alcohol consumption, which has been exaggerated, but due to premiumisation. They are effectively a luxury goods company, and that sector has been dragged down as consumer spending shifts from the high end and, most importantly, as the marginal buyer tightens their belt. |
| UL | Unilever is in deal-making mode, and the market doesn't like it, at a time when it would prefer stability. March performance has been dire, but the stock appears to be severely undervalued. |
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