Outlook 2026: Mike McGlone on Bitcoin's $10k Risk, Gold Volatility & The ‘Great Reversion’
Summary
Market Divergence: The guest highlights a stark split between record-high US equities and collapsing commodity prices, signaling a deflationary setup into 2026.
US Treasuries: He explicitly pitches long Treasuries as the next big trade, expecting the 10-year yield to fall toward or below 3% amid easing and a risk-asset drawdown.
Gold: Bullish long-term versus equities with the S&P-to-gold ratio at historical inflection levels, but warns of near-term volatility and advocates profit-taking after a parabolic move.
Energy: Crude oil is expected to stay under pressure with potential lows near $40, while natural gas likely revisits ~$2 on post-inflation deflation dynamics.
Industrial Metals: Copper is vulnerable to a 30-40% drop if US equities correct ~20%, and silver behaves increasingly like an industrial metal with high volatility.
Cryptocurrencies: The guest warns of a deep mean reversion in Bitcoin, citing speculative excess and supply proliferation, with potential declines toward $50k and even $10k.
US Equities & Volatility: He expects a third down year since 2008, with S&P volatility reverting from unusually low levels and a 10-20% decline risking broader deflationary feedback loops.
China & Global Demand: Persistent deflationary signals from China (e.g., low bond yields) and weaker global manufacturing weigh on commodities, reinforcing caution on industrial metals.
Transcript
Kitco News Outlook 2026 is brought to you by Discovery, a growing North American precious metals company. Welcome back. I'm Jeremy Saffron. We're closing 2025 with a market that looks fundamentally broken in some ways. The paper economy, the S&P 500, and the NASDAQ is hitting record highs, pricing in a perfect soft landing and endless AI growth. Yet, the physical economy is pricing in a downturn typically associated with deep recessions. Crude oil is collapsed into the 50s. Bitcoin is lagging the NASDAQ by one of the widest margins of the modern cycle. And gold is trading above $4,300 an ounce. Levels historically associated with financial stress, not economic calm. And two distinct realities are playing out of the screens right now. And in 2026, one of them has to break. And we're dedicating this entire half hour to find out which one it is. Joining me is Mike Mclo, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence. Uh, great to see you, Mike. Welcome back. >> Great to see you, Jeremy. Man, that's very impressive. That the rap was quite good. I'm just bowing your general direction of how you do that. Oh, >> I appreciate that. I mean, I tell you, I going back to the year, looking at the stories that we've been covering. It's been pretty interesting. And we had you on the program uh last se in September. I looked at the tape this morning. We were kind of getting into it. And before I get into the 2026 forecast, I mean, you know, back in September, you kind of warned that the S&P was vulnerable to a Q4 rollover. Now, that didn't happen, but the market powered through. However, you also warned that the energy would collapse uh regardless of geopolitics, and that call was precise. WTI is around 56 today. So, here's my question. I mean, why did the deflationary signal hit commodities so hard, but completely miss the stock market? Was it, you know, shielding the S&P 500 from the reality we see in in oil? >> Well, I'm I'm glad we went there. I think as a strategist, trader, investor, it's probably best to start with some of the things you got wrong and why. And the number one thing I've been wrong on for too long is the resilience of the US stock market. Um, but what's happened this year, as you used the word earlier, is just plain I like to since since Halloween, I've been using the word frightening. When you have gold just grabbing alpha like it has this year, up 65%, beating everything on a cost adjusted basis and crude oil collapsing on a global basis. Yeah, that's a global recessionary trajectory. Now, it makes sense. The world's most significant demand pull economy has shut off the ability for the rest of the world to export to the US. Now, that's a bit of an issue, but I'm just looking at this market is in a truly frightening way. And all thing, let's just look at change from a year ago. Um a go year ago we had to look forward to a new president and complete up uptrends in virtually every market most notably cryptos and bitcoin and gold but now we're at the stage that cryptos have rolled over the housing market has rolled over stock market's getting dicey and the crypto market has you know obviously roll over but the number one thing I'm concerned about is just how this parabolic rally in gold it's never rallied at this velocity with the stock market remaining this low that's never happened so I'm concerned that means it's just going to have a pick up in stock market volatility yesterday. And yes, if I keep saying the same thing, eventually I might be right. >> Yeah. Well, and it and it typically is. I mean, history does repeat itself. But I mean, is is this a you know, is it a valuation problem or a timing problem? In other words, are equities wrong or or just early? >> Well, I think they're going to be right. Let's just put it this way. I put my I'm my base case is we will have the third down year for the S&P 500 total return next year since 2008. We've only had two 2018 2022 2018 was minor 2022 was a little major. And the signals are there partly because if you look at things like volatility, the S&P 500 120day volatility right now is 11%. If we end the year there, it'll be the lowest since 2017. The average is about 17% the last 10 20 years. So it's going to pop there. It's just a question of when. So we're going to get that pickup. The question is when and then how during it is. But the macro big picture to me is is the main thing that really matters to me, Jeremy. And before the election of Mr. Trump, um, just over a year ago, my base case was that the election the next president is going to have the misfortune of becoming president with the stock market the most expensive in history, very similar to Herbert Hoover. And to me, that started to happen. Now, the stock market started to decline versus its peers in the rest of the world. We use the MSCI World XUS index. Um, we've seen it's but it's still going up in the US. The thing is it's completely lagging the metals like the Bloomberg Galaxy crypto I'm sorry the Bloomberg Galaxy metals I'm sorry the Bloomberg all metals total return index is up 50% this year. Now that's not going to happen again next year but gold's leading everything metals are taking off and crude oil going down means that potential debasement trade or deflation inflation trade and everything going into metals maybe even crypto is not happening with crude oil going down. So, I'm afraid that what's going to happen next year is the rest of the space is going to follow lower energy and we'll get that normal postinflation deflation. It's clearly happening in energy and grains. >> You know, it's interesting. I mean, we've talked about this liquidity lag before, too. I mean, it's usually the Fed cuts and the market rallies and we're seeing that, but you've compared this current setup to to 2000 or 1929 where where the Fed cut into a peak. I mean, if the economy is strong enough to support record stock prices, why is the Fed cutting at all? Is that the tell that that you know, they see something breaking behind the scenes? >> Uh, well, that's part of it. I mean, they did announce they're going to be starting to buy treasuries. Now, for that's more for management things, but I I like to say part of the reason I've been bullish gold forever is when central banks said they were going to started buying gold. I'm like, okay, well, the US government, the biggest central bank in the planet, starting to buy treasuries. I think I want to be on that trade which to me means setting out to longer term in particular if the stock market goes down. But the bottom line I think the number I'm I'm putting out my metals outlook tomorrow. So this this will probably published before then. And the key feature I'm using is the ratio of the S&P 500 divided by gold. Right now it's about 1.55 basically about 1.55 ounces of gold per one S&P 500 index. The significance of that is that was the peak in 1929. So we can make that connection back there. And so every time in history when you pivoted down below that level which was 1973 when we came out the gold standard a little bit after it and then 2008 there we're signed. So we're right at that level. So the key thing about next year is we're going to trade lower is the stock market going to trade lower versus gold or is it going to bounce from the support and go higher and mine biases the former? I think the stock market's going to continue going lower versus gold. The key thing I think is going to happen is it's not going to be because gold's going up too much. I think it's because because we just have a little normal back and fill and profit taking in the stock market that's clearly happened in cryptos and bitcoin. So I think it's trickle down but that is a severe normal deflationary force and that's all going to going to matter next year. If I'm right about that that's going to mean everything for the Fed the Fed will ease and it'll ease a lot. We'll have pretty severe deflation. Just a little 10 to 20% back up in the US stock market would actually be the problem is let's say if we go 10% that's almost 25% in GDP. See the problem? It's so stretched now that that's the stock market is the economy and as a strategist that has to be the number one thing I analyze and unless you expect that normal 10% return next year which is in base case for everybody. If we get a simple decline that's going to tumble the dominoes for everything particularly things like treasury yields. >> Yeah. Interesting. Uh you know another thing on the inflation numbers everybody including the president has been talking about is the price of gas the price of oil. Uh let's drill down on that just a little bit because you know it it seems like it's one of the biggest anomalies on the board. I mean WTI crude oil is sitting around 56 a barrel. We're told we're in an AI boom, data centers, EVs, massive power consumption. I mean Mike, if that if that narrative is true, I mean how is it mathematically possible for oil to be crushing it? Is it the AI demand story or is the supply side just that efficient? When I hear that rap, Jeremy, the first thing I think is what are the most econ um electrically sensitive and conductive commodities? That's copper and silver. And what's doing really well this year? Copper and silver. So when you mentioned energy and natural, let's point out the 20year multi-deade range or bottoms in crude oil has been around 40 and in um natural gas, US natural gas has been around two. And then the average per gallon price of US gasoline US has been around two. >> I made the call way too early that we're going to go back to those levels. I was made that call way too early in 2022 on the way up and I think we're going to see all those levels in two 2026. It's normal for WTI crude oil which is 56 right now to bottom around 40. And almost every bottom we've had which started in 2008 was when the US was a net importer. Now the US is a pretty significant net exporter. So we see what's happening there. And the key thing I like to point out is embrace the technology not the price. So that's a normal sit and then you look at the average gallon per gallon price of US gasoline. It just dropped below three. It typically goes to two but typically what's coincides with when um gasoline drops around two to three times since 2008 is usually a little bit of weakness in the stock market. And natural gas the normal swing in US natural gas has been between five and two since 2009. Now, we had a pump up in Russians invasion Ukraine. Then we dropped back down to two last year. Now, we just popped up to 5.5 just a few weeks ago. And now we're heading back towards two. In my view, the number one thing to make all those normal cycles to really hit near those low price cures is like I said, just a little pick up in US stock market volatility, a drop in the market. So, to me, that's what's going to be happening next year. That's what we have to look forward to. alternative is basically we have, you know, the lowest 120-day volatility in the S&P 500 right now at 11% since on a year- end basis since since 2017. You have to maintain that lower plateau. Now, it stays low for a while, but it never stays low there forever. Maintain that lower plateau for all these things not to happen. That's why I'm really worried about things like copper going down. But from an energy standpoint, another thing, Mr. Trump has a benefit also of this wonderful timing. The cycle was already there. Anyhow, the number one force for crude oil to get too cheap is because it got too expensive to the peak in 2022. That's the same as all commamines. It's not and they're not alone. The same with the grains, corn, soybeans, and wheats are all on similar trajectories. So, that's what I think 2020 26 is going to be about trying to find those low price cures. And the bottom line I'm worried about um Jeremy is in all those elastic commodities we're seeing post inflation deflation. That's a normal cycle. If we just get a little drop in the stock market, that's the dominoes falling towards what is basically deflation in China as indicated by their tenure bond at 1.84 compared to the US at 4.14. Yeah, interesting. I mean, let's follow that thread because I mean, you know, global demand for oil is dropping so fast enough to push it to 50 bucks. I mean, that implies a recession in the manufacturing world a little bit yet the US GDP prints are holding up. I mean, are we looking at what we've talked about before, that bifurcated economy where the US consumer parties while the global industrial engine kind of stalls out? And if so, can the US survive 2026 alone? >> There I I doubt it. I think the key thing that's happened is we've reached the endgame with pumping up risk assets, mostly US stock market, with fiscal and monetary stimulus and inflation. And so the bottom line, what's happened in all the elections lately in the US is the number one theme is affordability or inflation. We just have too high inflation and the and and and our president pushing back in the Fed trying to get their knees that creates inflation. Creating, you know, the massive tariffs creates inflation. Talking up the stock market, that creates inflation. They they're they're learning the endgame is uhoh, the problem is if we run it hot, which our current government wants, is that means you're not gonna incumbents don't get elected. You get inflation. That's what's shifted. So I think that's what cryptocurrencies have figured out by rolling over and the bottom line I think is where basically the US stock market is atlas shrug basically has to it has the weight of the world holding it right now if it just has a normal 10% correction virtually every central bank in the planet will probably switch more towards easing certainly US bank central bank will switch towards towards easing we have core producer price indices that came out right today at 2.6% 6% on a normal rotation this should go back down to 1%. That's just the way it always work. The bottom line is just a little back up maybe 10 20% in the stock market and all these dominoes tumbled. That's what I'm worried about and that's why I point out that in Nordon Burden I talked about last year stock market going up it stayed up but then I look at the like the Bloomberg commodities industrial metals index this year it's up only about 15% and the stock market's up about 17%. So see the connection if stock market goes down you fully expect industrial metals and copper to go down next year. >> Yeah. feels I mean it feels like a fragile environment. There's no doubt. I mean it brings us to that asset that should be loving this a little bit. I mean Bitcoin I mean we got Fed cuts record stocks you know at highs yet Bitcoin's trading around 89,000 lagging the NASDAQ significantly this year. You've drawn you know that comparison between the current Bitcoin setup and and the 1929 stock market top. It's it's kind of a chilling parallel. You've warned about that deep mean reversion potentially to levels that would shock most investors. What actually breaks first for that to happen? Liquidity leverage or is it sentiment? >> Well, let me just bring out one analogy I've brought I just thought of recently. Bitcoin has the curse of the back test. Having made created and sold commodity indices for everyone out S&P the lessons of a great back test are they usually stop. Now, so this back test, the best back test in history, um also coincided with the biggest ETF launch in history. Get the connection for a peak there. Classic signs of a peak in a highly volatile risk asset with unlimited supply. And it's not just Bitcoin. I get it. Defining diminishing supply, increasing demand and dem adoption. That was my call five years ago. But now I look at there was one cryptocurrency in 2009 and now there's 28 million. And I think we have realized that there's this um the money printer go bur is not. It's cryptocurrency um supply go burr. And that to me is that speculative axises are kicking over. And it's it's what we where we go from here that I'm really worried about that what we see now is massive pile on into very poor performance into a hasb been asset that needs some major purging is all that 28 mill billion 28 million of those most of those track nothing. We need to drop those down to zero and then we'll reset. To me that's what's happening now. And the question is where does it stop? And I look at it right now when you have stock market volatility this buried you typically don't want to buy cryptos until it you know things pan out. So I look at cryptos as a leading indicator they're heading lower. I'm very concerned that about that Bitcoin to gold ratio. It's been one of the key things I've been watching all year. Right now it's about 20. The high when Trump got elected is it took about 40 ounces of gold for one Bitcoin. So that's dropped from that high 50%. What stops it from dropping to 10% another I mean another down to 10 another 50% next year. That's where my models are pointing. So I think that's going to continue. The problem I have to tilt over to is when you get gold this stretched, it's right now 90% above its 60-month moving average. That's the most since 79 and 80. It's actually much more than the peaks in 2011 13. When you get gold that stretch, it usually shows you there's a problem. And I think it also the key thing is that's never been that stretched with volat stock market volatility this low. And that's what I think cryptos are signaling. And that's what I'm worried we're going to kick into next year. So I'm quite frightened. I just look at sometimes I don't give investment advice and sometimes it's best to be overweight things like treasuries. And by the way, the US central bank started buying them. >> Yeah. Yeah, they did. Uh okay. Well, let's pivot to metals. I mean it's good here. I mean gold's at 4330, silver near 65 bucks. I mean this has been quite the winner of 2025. I mean you just use that word, right? Frightening to describe the vertical move also in gold. And typically, you know, Kitco viewers >> cheer for high prices, but you're a bit worried. I mean, is your is your concern that gold is pricing in systemic stress beyond what equities are acknowledging? >> But that's one thing I do love about KitKo, the rationality of most broad um in metals investors. And then of course there's the gold bugs are entertaining versus some of the irrationality of a lot of crypto investors who are too emotional. So the number one thing to remember in this space is when you get a parabolic rally like this, the key thing you should be thinking about is booking some profits. Particularly for people like me. Let's talk about where I was wrong. I thought gold was going to break above 2000 in 2021 and 22 and 23 and finally it did in 24. So I'm not the only one and most gold investors and particularly those who have been involved in the equities have been getting hammered for years. Finally we have some appreciation or getting it. It's never wrong to take some profits. But I want to give you an example what's typically happens when you buy after parabolic rallies. A good example is silver this year. Now silver made a record setting run. It's great. It's been wonderful to be on board that finally those of us have had silver forever. The key thing is to give you an example. Silver right now is at the high it's running at the highest velocity since 1979. Now that year went up 400%. But it closed at $32. Guess what? This this year's low was 28. That's what happens in and you just that was 50 years ago almost almost half a half a century and we're still at the same price. So yeah, it popped up to 50 that year but be more tactical and I think we're supposed to be doing that. very similar in in gold. When gold popped up to similar levels and similar velocity rally in 1979 and 80, it peaked yeah around 800 900 but then by 2005 it was still at $300 an ounce. It's just what we got to be careful in this space. So yes, it's different but so I'm just really concerned that we could have major wide ranges next year but be very careful getting overweight long at these levels. >> Right. Well actually that's that's a good point Mike. I mean, you know, back in 2008, 2020, when the credit market seized up, gold dropped 20 to 30% in weeks because everyone needed that cash. I mean, um, you know, if 2026 brings the volatility you expect, should investors be ready for gold to drop to 3500 before it goes to 5,000? >> Well, I think that's So, here's the simple thing. Gold's annual volatility is around 16%. A first standard deviation move from current levels next year is around 5,000 or down around 3500. That's just the facts of the volatility the way it usually does. And typically when you stretch this much out and you you you leap out of the cage, you got to be very careful. So I think volatility is going to be the key thing about next year, it's be wonderful for traders. Not so good for buy and hold people. And typically buy and hold people are smart enough to know when you look at your portfolio in that position you've had forever gets way overweight. Never hurts to skim some profits. The lesson we learned in trading pits is sometimes it's good to give a little back to the market gods, but never dog will bull dog there. market gods is what Michael Sailor did of strategy did recently by doubling down in Bitcoin positions. So to me that's just the karma of trading positions and particularly for those of us in metals and those of us who have been big I mean metals have always been my favorite commodity partly because you can buy and hold them and they go up over time they have less of that tendency to go down because they went up but when they get this stretched be very careful and copper is the number one the one that matters next year. So I want to just tilt over copper a little bit and that is the price right now about four about $5.40 40 cents is, you know, we've reached record highs. Now, I'm using the US price copper. If the stock market just has a little bit of backup, copper can easily get back to four and a half bucks easily. To stay above five, you need to stock the number one prerequisite is the stock market has to go up. So, the supply constraints we're seeing this year are probably going to usually those are not enduring. >> Yeah. Interesting. You know, I guess we can pull that back to to silver, too. I mean, we mentioned it was finally moving, but if but if we're heading into a deflationary industrial recession, which your oil call kind of suggests, does silver get dragged down by copper or does it finally fly as a monetary metal? >> No, that's a key thing. Monetary metal, there's by bar none is gold. Central banks are buying gold. Silver is called the devil's metal for a reason. I can't point out that example this year's low was the same as a 1979 high a long time ago. Um, so it's much it's more of an industrial metal every day. Now industrial demand's great, but was think about what's happening in China. They're facing pretty significant headwinds from the rest of the world pushing back on their exports which are no longer going to the US. Major deflationary forces out of China. To me, the bottom line for silver and and industrial metals is just look over what's happening in things like Arnor going down. Uh the world's most significant industrial commodity crude oil going down. And then what's the number one measure I think of inflation or deflation in China? Just look at their bond yields. 1.84% on their teny note. That's a sign of pretty severe deflation. I don't see a shift in that anytime soon. But I do see a major burden on US stock market staying up just for what's happened this year in the industrial industrial metals to stay resilient. >> And on that topic, I mean just before I mean on on copper, I mean if it's heading lower in 2026, I just wanted to ask you about the dominant driver in your view. I mean is it about China demand breaking down? Is it the global manufacturing rolling over or is it simply a mean reversion call after a postcoavid overshoot? So, I think the dominant factor is the elephant in the room and that's beta. That's the US stock market, S&P 500 having a normal 20% correction. If it does that, copper typically drops 30% easy, maybe 40%. Now, if that's my point, it cannot do that if you're bullish copper. And that's why I point out is we all have supply and demand models. Most people are pointing to deficits, but we've already popped up in price, which means things will adjust. Obviously not as quickly as things like grains, but the bottom line for me for everything, Jeremy, when I get stock market volatility this low and most indications are that it's potentially going to roll over next year, other markets, that that's the number one, that's the 10 and all that matters. So, anybody who's running a value at risk model and sitting at positions that are long industrial metals or even looking to buy things like um industrial commodities like crude oil, you number one thing you need for bullishness for next year, you need the stock market. And if it drops, we're going to have a correction. we're going to get that 11 that 120day volatility back to 17% at some point. It always goes there. It's just a question how long and then you respond. But for now at these levels, there's never it's been a great year I think to say thank you very much and go home pretty flat and in cash and particularly that's been happening in cryptos. >> Speaking of uh cash, I mean let's what do we got about eight minutes left? I want to make this actionable. I mean you painted that picture of a kind of a false positive where stocks are, you know, somewhat lying and commodities are telling the truth here, right? I mean, if I'm an investor sitting on cash today and I and I believe your thesis for 2026, where do I hide? I mean, is the trade long US treasuries? Is it cash or or is there a specific kind of sector that you think survives this great reversion? So I will repeat um what I've been the most wrong on for a couple years now and that is I think US Treasury bond yields the long bond or which you tenure right now to 4.14% is more likely to head towards what's on the case in China at 1.84%. I started in the bond pit bond futures pit in 1988 in Chicago trading in pits. I thought I knew that market the best. I've been wrong on that one for a couple years now. For me, that's the next big trade. And the all the dominoes are doing and the next catalyst is just a little bit of backup in US stock market. That's what's elevating um inflation um and keeping CPI elevated and pushing back in the Fed and everything is just the little 20% correction in US Treasury and it's in stock I'm sorry stock market and it stays down for a little while. I think that 10 year not yield right now at 4% is going to drop below three. >> Oh wow. >> But so that that to me is the next big trade. But here's a key problem. So, for I've been, you know, I I have to admit I've been not a big fan of stock market forever, but I found great beta in Bitcoin and gold. I jumped off the Bitcoin P um Bitcoin um horse last year just when I viewed as, you know, supposed to be selling when you're they're yelling. And I'm somewhat jumping off the gold horse this year because it's a very extreme market. And so that's why only the only thing I have left is Treasury bonds. >> Okay. What about uh US dollar? I mean, if the US is the only game in town, but the Fed is cutting rates, I mean, does the does the dollar crash in 26 or does it spike because of a flight to safety? I'm afraid it's going to continue to do what it did this year, um, and that is just follow the relative value of the US stock market versus the rest of the world. So, if you take the S&P 500, divide by the MSCI World XUS index, the dollar index has been in the same trade for since 2009, and they both come down this year. So the US stock market continues to underperform it peers in the rest of the world. I think that's going to be the same thing for the dollar. And the key thing from a US standpoint and what I've heard from some wealthy money managers is when you've accumulated so much wealth in dollars and assets, it's best to diversify. Now that's gold or assets outside the US. >> Yeah. Interesting. Wow. What a year, huh? I can't even believe it's almost Christmas. Mike, before I let you go, let's lock in some numbers for the archives. I mean, not forecast, just probability weighted kind of instincts. I'm going to give you a price target for the year end of 2026. You tell me. Is it over or under? Crude oil $60 a barrel. Over or under? >> Under. >> Yeah, you're going to 40. I know it. I know it. You're going to be right on that call. Uh okay. Gold at 5,00 say the same thing. Eventually might be right. Right. >> Yeah. Yeah. Gold at 5,000 announced next year, end of next year. >> I So here's the thing about gold next year. I think it could see 5,000 and 3500. The V it could do both. Typical kind of year like this is when it's done. Every time it gets could do both. The key thing is it's unlikely to stay above 5,000. And maybe here's the key thing. Maybe it'll meet the S&P 500 at 5,000. >> Interesting. And Bitcoin at back to 100,000. I mean, I saw a call of yours almost 40. >> I think it's going next year 50 and eventually on its way to 10,000. This the same call I made in 2008 when it went above 10,000 that it's going to lap off a zero. I was 70% right and 30% wrong. The low was 3,000. Same thing would have been been above 100,000. I think it's going to lop off off zero. So, I think the next the first key level is 50,000. And if I'm right about a normal bare market in the stock market, Bitcoin is going to get to 10. >> Wow. All right. And and finally, I mean, you you kind of brought it up there, but US 10-year Treasury yield, I mean, 3%. >> Yeah. Or lower. I think it's it's right now just about 4%. I think it's much to go to three or lower than stay above five. And the key thing is that long bond. That long bond has popped up the high this year is around 5.15%. That was a key level for 20 almost 25 years ago. I think it's more likely to drop with a normal backup in US risk assets, which means the stock market. >> Wild, what a year. Okay, we got the receipts. Uh, we'll see how they age, I guess. Here we go. Mike Mclo, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence. Always appreciate the honesty and the data. Thanks for joining us. Appreciate this, Mike. >> Thank you for having me. >> All right. We'd also like to thank our Outlook 2026 sponsor, Discovery, combining highquality gold producing assets in Canada with the world's largest undeveloped silver deposits in Mexico. And you can find out more by going to discovery silver.com. And that wraps up our outlook 2026 special. The message for the coming year is very clear from Mike here. Do not uh mistake a bull market in prices for a healthy economy. And the divergence between stocks and commodities is a loudest signal on the board. And when assets like oil and Bitcoin start flashing, it's time to pay attention. Now, if you value these deep dives and you want to stay ahead of the volatility in 2026, make sure you subscribed to the channel and hit that notification bell right now. We'll have a massive year of coverage uh ahead and you won't want to miss it. For all of us here at Kitco News, I'm Jeremy Sapper. Thanks for watching. Kitco News Outlook 2026 is brought to you by Discovery, a growing North American precious metals company.
Outlook 2026: Mike McGlone on Bitcoin's $10k Risk, Gold Volatility & The ‘Great Reversion’
Summary
Transcript
Kitco News Outlook 2026 is brought to you by Discovery, a growing North American precious metals company. Welcome back. I'm Jeremy Saffron. We're closing 2025 with a market that looks fundamentally broken in some ways. The paper economy, the S&P 500, and the NASDAQ is hitting record highs, pricing in a perfect soft landing and endless AI growth. Yet, the physical economy is pricing in a downturn typically associated with deep recessions. Crude oil is collapsed into the 50s. Bitcoin is lagging the NASDAQ by one of the widest margins of the modern cycle. And gold is trading above $4,300 an ounce. Levels historically associated with financial stress, not economic calm. And two distinct realities are playing out of the screens right now. And in 2026, one of them has to break. And we're dedicating this entire half hour to find out which one it is. Joining me is Mike Mclo, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence. Uh, great to see you, Mike. Welcome back. >> Great to see you, Jeremy. Man, that's very impressive. That the rap was quite good. I'm just bowing your general direction of how you do that. Oh, >> I appreciate that. I mean, I tell you, I going back to the year, looking at the stories that we've been covering. It's been pretty interesting. And we had you on the program uh last se in September. I looked at the tape this morning. We were kind of getting into it. And before I get into the 2026 forecast, I mean, you know, back in September, you kind of warned that the S&P was vulnerable to a Q4 rollover. Now, that didn't happen, but the market powered through. However, you also warned that the energy would collapse uh regardless of geopolitics, and that call was precise. WTI is around 56 today. So, here's my question. I mean, why did the deflationary signal hit commodities so hard, but completely miss the stock market? Was it, you know, shielding the S&P 500 from the reality we see in in oil? >> Well, I'm I'm glad we went there. I think as a strategist, trader, investor, it's probably best to start with some of the things you got wrong and why. And the number one thing I've been wrong on for too long is the resilience of the US stock market. Um, but what's happened this year, as you used the word earlier, is just plain I like to since since Halloween, I've been using the word frightening. When you have gold just grabbing alpha like it has this year, up 65%, beating everything on a cost adjusted basis and crude oil collapsing on a global basis. Yeah, that's a global recessionary trajectory. Now, it makes sense. The world's most significant demand pull economy has shut off the ability for the rest of the world to export to the US. Now, that's a bit of an issue, but I'm just looking at this market is in a truly frightening way. And all thing, let's just look at change from a year ago. Um a go year ago we had to look forward to a new president and complete up uptrends in virtually every market most notably cryptos and bitcoin and gold but now we're at the stage that cryptos have rolled over the housing market has rolled over stock market's getting dicey and the crypto market has you know obviously roll over but the number one thing I'm concerned about is just how this parabolic rally in gold it's never rallied at this velocity with the stock market remaining this low that's never happened so I'm concerned that means it's just going to have a pick up in stock market volatility yesterday. And yes, if I keep saying the same thing, eventually I might be right. >> Yeah. Well, and it and it typically is. I mean, history does repeat itself. But I mean, is is this a you know, is it a valuation problem or a timing problem? In other words, are equities wrong or or just early? >> Well, I think they're going to be right. Let's just put it this way. I put my I'm my base case is we will have the third down year for the S&P 500 total return next year since 2008. We've only had two 2018 2022 2018 was minor 2022 was a little major. And the signals are there partly because if you look at things like volatility, the S&P 500 120day volatility right now is 11%. If we end the year there, it'll be the lowest since 2017. The average is about 17% the last 10 20 years. So it's going to pop there. It's just a question of when. So we're going to get that pickup. The question is when and then how during it is. But the macro big picture to me is is the main thing that really matters to me, Jeremy. And before the election of Mr. Trump, um, just over a year ago, my base case was that the election the next president is going to have the misfortune of becoming president with the stock market the most expensive in history, very similar to Herbert Hoover. And to me, that started to happen. Now, the stock market started to decline versus its peers in the rest of the world. We use the MSCI World XUS index. Um, we've seen it's but it's still going up in the US. The thing is it's completely lagging the metals like the Bloomberg Galaxy crypto I'm sorry the Bloomberg Galaxy metals I'm sorry the Bloomberg all metals total return index is up 50% this year. Now that's not going to happen again next year but gold's leading everything metals are taking off and crude oil going down means that potential debasement trade or deflation inflation trade and everything going into metals maybe even crypto is not happening with crude oil going down. So, I'm afraid that what's going to happen next year is the rest of the space is going to follow lower energy and we'll get that normal postinflation deflation. It's clearly happening in energy and grains. >> You know, it's interesting. I mean, we've talked about this liquidity lag before, too. I mean, it's usually the Fed cuts and the market rallies and we're seeing that, but you've compared this current setup to to 2000 or 1929 where where the Fed cut into a peak. I mean, if the economy is strong enough to support record stock prices, why is the Fed cutting at all? Is that the tell that that you know, they see something breaking behind the scenes? >> Uh, well, that's part of it. I mean, they did announce they're going to be starting to buy treasuries. Now, for that's more for management things, but I I like to say part of the reason I've been bullish gold forever is when central banks said they were going to started buying gold. I'm like, okay, well, the US government, the biggest central bank in the planet, starting to buy treasuries. I think I want to be on that trade which to me means setting out to longer term in particular if the stock market goes down. But the bottom line I think the number I'm I'm putting out my metals outlook tomorrow. So this this will probably published before then. And the key feature I'm using is the ratio of the S&P 500 divided by gold. Right now it's about 1.55 basically about 1.55 ounces of gold per one S&P 500 index. The significance of that is that was the peak in 1929. So we can make that connection back there. And so every time in history when you pivoted down below that level which was 1973 when we came out the gold standard a little bit after it and then 2008 there we're signed. So we're right at that level. So the key thing about next year is we're going to trade lower is the stock market going to trade lower versus gold or is it going to bounce from the support and go higher and mine biases the former? I think the stock market's going to continue going lower versus gold. The key thing I think is going to happen is it's not going to be because gold's going up too much. I think it's because because we just have a little normal back and fill and profit taking in the stock market that's clearly happened in cryptos and bitcoin. So I think it's trickle down but that is a severe normal deflationary force and that's all going to going to matter next year. If I'm right about that that's going to mean everything for the Fed the Fed will ease and it'll ease a lot. We'll have pretty severe deflation. Just a little 10 to 20% back up in the US stock market would actually be the problem is let's say if we go 10% that's almost 25% in GDP. See the problem? It's so stretched now that that's the stock market is the economy and as a strategist that has to be the number one thing I analyze and unless you expect that normal 10% return next year which is in base case for everybody. If we get a simple decline that's going to tumble the dominoes for everything particularly things like treasury yields. >> Yeah. Interesting. Uh you know another thing on the inflation numbers everybody including the president has been talking about is the price of gas the price of oil. Uh let's drill down on that just a little bit because you know it it seems like it's one of the biggest anomalies on the board. I mean WTI crude oil is sitting around 56 a barrel. We're told we're in an AI boom, data centers, EVs, massive power consumption. I mean Mike, if that if that narrative is true, I mean how is it mathematically possible for oil to be crushing it? Is it the AI demand story or is the supply side just that efficient? When I hear that rap, Jeremy, the first thing I think is what are the most econ um electrically sensitive and conductive commodities? That's copper and silver. And what's doing really well this year? Copper and silver. So when you mentioned energy and natural, let's point out the 20year multi-deade range or bottoms in crude oil has been around 40 and in um natural gas, US natural gas has been around two. And then the average per gallon price of US gasoline US has been around two. >> I made the call way too early that we're going to go back to those levels. I was made that call way too early in 2022 on the way up and I think we're going to see all those levels in two 2026. It's normal for WTI crude oil which is 56 right now to bottom around 40. And almost every bottom we've had which started in 2008 was when the US was a net importer. Now the US is a pretty significant net exporter. So we see what's happening there. And the key thing I like to point out is embrace the technology not the price. So that's a normal sit and then you look at the average gallon per gallon price of US gasoline. It just dropped below three. It typically goes to two but typically what's coincides with when um gasoline drops around two to three times since 2008 is usually a little bit of weakness in the stock market. And natural gas the normal swing in US natural gas has been between five and two since 2009. Now, we had a pump up in Russians invasion Ukraine. Then we dropped back down to two last year. Now, we just popped up to 5.5 just a few weeks ago. And now we're heading back towards two. In my view, the number one thing to make all those normal cycles to really hit near those low price cures is like I said, just a little pick up in US stock market volatility, a drop in the market. So, to me, that's what's going to be happening next year. That's what we have to look forward to. alternative is basically we have, you know, the lowest 120-day volatility in the S&P 500 right now at 11% since on a year- end basis since since 2017. You have to maintain that lower plateau. Now, it stays low for a while, but it never stays low there forever. Maintain that lower plateau for all these things not to happen. That's why I'm really worried about things like copper going down. But from an energy standpoint, another thing, Mr. Trump has a benefit also of this wonderful timing. The cycle was already there. Anyhow, the number one force for crude oil to get too cheap is because it got too expensive to the peak in 2022. That's the same as all commamines. It's not and they're not alone. The same with the grains, corn, soybeans, and wheats are all on similar trajectories. So, that's what I think 2020 26 is going to be about trying to find those low price cures. And the bottom line I'm worried about um Jeremy is in all those elastic commodities we're seeing post inflation deflation. That's a normal cycle. If we just get a little drop in the stock market, that's the dominoes falling towards what is basically deflation in China as indicated by their tenure bond at 1.84 compared to the US at 4.14. Yeah, interesting. I mean, let's follow that thread because I mean, you know, global demand for oil is dropping so fast enough to push it to 50 bucks. I mean, that implies a recession in the manufacturing world a little bit yet the US GDP prints are holding up. I mean, are we looking at what we've talked about before, that bifurcated economy where the US consumer parties while the global industrial engine kind of stalls out? And if so, can the US survive 2026 alone? >> There I I doubt it. I think the key thing that's happened is we've reached the endgame with pumping up risk assets, mostly US stock market, with fiscal and monetary stimulus and inflation. And so the bottom line, what's happened in all the elections lately in the US is the number one theme is affordability or inflation. We just have too high inflation and the and and and our president pushing back in the Fed trying to get their knees that creates inflation. Creating, you know, the massive tariffs creates inflation. Talking up the stock market, that creates inflation. They they're they're learning the endgame is uhoh, the problem is if we run it hot, which our current government wants, is that means you're not gonna incumbents don't get elected. You get inflation. That's what's shifted. So I think that's what cryptocurrencies have figured out by rolling over and the bottom line I think is where basically the US stock market is atlas shrug basically has to it has the weight of the world holding it right now if it just has a normal 10% correction virtually every central bank in the planet will probably switch more towards easing certainly US bank central bank will switch towards towards easing we have core producer price indices that came out right today at 2.6% 6% on a normal rotation this should go back down to 1%. That's just the way it always work. The bottom line is just a little back up maybe 10 20% in the stock market and all these dominoes tumbled. That's what I'm worried about and that's why I point out that in Nordon Burden I talked about last year stock market going up it stayed up but then I look at the like the Bloomberg commodities industrial metals index this year it's up only about 15% and the stock market's up about 17%. So see the connection if stock market goes down you fully expect industrial metals and copper to go down next year. >> Yeah. feels I mean it feels like a fragile environment. There's no doubt. I mean it brings us to that asset that should be loving this a little bit. I mean Bitcoin I mean we got Fed cuts record stocks you know at highs yet Bitcoin's trading around 89,000 lagging the NASDAQ significantly this year. You've drawn you know that comparison between the current Bitcoin setup and and the 1929 stock market top. It's it's kind of a chilling parallel. You've warned about that deep mean reversion potentially to levels that would shock most investors. What actually breaks first for that to happen? Liquidity leverage or is it sentiment? >> Well, let me just bring out one analogy I've brought I just thought of recently. Bitcoin has the curse of the back test. Having made created and sold commodity indices for everyone out S&P the lessons of a great back test are they usually stop. Now, so this back test, the best back test in history, um also coincided with the biggest ETF launch in history. Get the connection for a peak there. Classic signs of a peak in a highly volatile risk asset with unlimited supply. And it's not just Bitcoin. I get it. Defining diminishing supply, increasing demand and dem adoption. That was my call five years ago. But now I look at there was one cryptocurrency in 2009 and now there's 28 million. And I think we have realized that there's this um the money printer go bur is not. It's cryptocurrency um supply go burr. And that to me is that speculative axises are kicking over. And it's it's what we where we go from here that I'm really worried about that what we see now is massive pile on into very poor performance into a hasb been asset that needs some major purging is all that 28 mill billion 28 million of those most of those track nothing. We need to drop those down to zero and then we'll reset. To me that's what's happening now. And the question is where does it stop? And I look at it right now when you have stock market volatility this buried you typically don't want to buy cryptos until it you know things pan out. So I look at cryptos as a leading indicator they're heading lower. I'm very concerned that about that Bitcoin to gold ratio. It's been one of the key things I've been watching all year. Right now it's about 20. The high when Trump got elected is it took about 40 ounces of gold for one Bitcoin. So that's dropped from that high 50%. What stops it from dropping to 10% another I mean another down to 10 another 50% next year. That's where my models are pointing. So I think that's going to continue. The problem I have to tilt over to is when you get gold this stretched, it's right now 90% above its 60-month moving average. That's the most since 79 and 80. It's actually much more than the peaks in 2011 13. When you get gold that stretch, it usually shows you there's a problem. And I think it also the key thing is that's never been that stretched with volat stock market volatility this low. And that's what I think cryptos are signaling. And that's what I'm worried we're going to kick into next year. So I'm quite frightened. I just look at sometimes I don't give investment advice and sometimes it's best to be overweight things like treasuries. And by the way, the US central bank started buying them. >> Yeah. Yeah, they did. Uh okay. Well, let's pivot to metals. I mean it's good here. I mean gold's at 4330, silver near 65 bucks. I mean this has been quite the winner of 2025. I mean you just use that word, right? Frightening to describe the vertical move also in gold. And typically, you know, Kitco viewers >> cheer for high prices, but you're a bit worried. I mean, is your is your concern that gold is pricing in systemic stress beyond what equities are acknowledging? >> But that's one thing I do love about KitKo, the rationality of most broad um in metals investors. And then of course there's the gold bugs are entertaining versus some of the irrationality of a lot of crypto investors who are too emotional. So the number one thing to remember in this space is when you get a parabolic rally like this, the key thing you should be thinking about is booking some profits. Particularly for people like me. Let's talk about where I was wrong. I thought gold was going to break above 2000 in 2021 and 22 and 23 and finally it did in 24. So I'm not the only one and most gold investors and particularly those who have been involved in the equities have been getting hammered for years. Finally we have some appreciation or getting it. It's never wrong to take some profits. But I want to give you an example what's typically happens when you buy after parabolic rallies. A good example is silver this year. Now silver made a record setting run. It's great. It's been wonderful to be on board that finally those of us have had silver forever. The key thing is to give you an example. Silver right now is at the high it's running at the highest velocity since 1979. Now that year went up 400%. But it closed at $32. Guess what? This this year's low was 28. That's what happens in and you just that was 50 years ago almost almost half a half a century and we're still at the same price. So yeah, it popped up to 50 that year but be more tactical and I think we're supposed to be doing that. very similar in in gold. When gold popped up to similar levels and similar velocity rally in 1979 and 80, it peaked yeah around 800 900 but then by 2005 it was still at $300 an ounce. It's just what we got to be careful in this space. So yes, it's different but so I'm just really concerned that we could have major wide ranges next year but be very careful getting overweight long at these levels. >> Right. Well actually that's that's a good point Mike. I mean, you know, back in 2008, 2020, when the credit market seized up, gold dropped 20 to 30% in weeks because everyone needed that cash. I mean, um, you know, if 2026 brings the volatility you expect, should investors be ready for gold to drop to 3500 before it goes to 5,000? >> Well, I think that's So, here's the simple thing. Gold's annual volatility is around 16%. A first standard deviation move from current levels next year is around 5,000 or down around 3500. That's just the facts of the volatility the way it usually does. And typically when you stretch this much out and you you you leap out of the cage, you got to be very careful. So I think volatility is going to be the key thing about next year, it's be wonderful for traders. Not so good for buy and hold people. And typically buy and hold people are smart enough to know when you look at your portfolio in that position you've had forever gets way overweight. Never hurts to skim some profits. The lesson we learned in trading pits is sometimes it's good to give a little back to the market gods, but never dog will bull dog there. market gods is what Michael Sailor did of strategy did recently by doubling down in Bitcoin positions. So to me that's just the karma of trading positions and particularly for those of us in metals and those of us who have been big I mean metals have always been my favorite commodity partly because you can buy and hold them and they go up over time they have less of that tendency to go down because they went up but when they get this stretched be very careful and copper is the number one the one that matters next year. So I want to just tilt over copper a little bit and that is the price right now about four about $5.40 40 cents is, you know, we've reached record highs. Now, I'm using the US price copper. If the stock market just has a little bit of backup, copper can easily get back to four and a half bucks easily. To stay above five, you need to stock the number one prerequisite is the stock market has to go up. So, the supply constraints we're seeing this year are probably going to usually those are not enduring. >> Yeah. Interesting. You know, I guess we can pull that back to to silver, too. I mean, we mentioned it was finally moving, but if but if we're heading into a deflationary industrial recession, which your oil call kind of suggests, does silver get dragged down by copper or does it finally fly as a monetary metal? >> No, that's a key thing. Monetary metal, there's by bar none is gold. Central banks are buying gold. Silver is called the devil's metal for a reason. I can't point out that example this year's low was the same as a 1979 high a long time ago. Um, so it's much it's more of an industrial metal every day. Now industrial demand's great, but was think about what's happening in China. They're facing pretty significant headwinds from the rest of the world pushing back on their exports which are no longer going to the US. Major deflationary forces out of China. To me, the bottom line for silver and and industrial metals is just look over what's happening in things like Arnor going down. Uh the world's most significant industrial commodity crude oil going down. And then what's the number one measure I think of inflation or deflation in China? Just look at their bond yields. 1.84% on their teny note. That's a sign of pretty severe deflation. I don't see a shift in that anytime soon. But I do see a major burden on US stock market staying up just for what's happened this year in the industrial industrial metals to stay resilient. >> And on that topic, I mean just before I mean on on copper, I mean if it's heading lower in 2026, I just wanted to ask you about the dominant driver in your view. I mean is it about China demand breaking down? Is it the global manufacturing rolling over or is it simply a mean reversion call after a postcoavid overshoot? So, I think the dominant factor is the elephant in the room and that's beta. That's the US stock market, S&P 500 having a normal 20% correction. If it does that, copper typically drops 30% easy, maybe 40%. Now, if that's my point, it cannot do that if you're bullish copper. And that's why I point out is we all have supply and demand models. Most people are pointing to deficits, but we've already popped up in price, which means things will adjust. Obviously not as quickly as things like grains, but the bottom line for me for everything, Jeremy, when I get stock market volatility this low and most indications are that it's potentially going to roll over next year, other markets, that that's the number one, that's the 10 and all that matters. So, anybody who's running a value at risk model and sitting at positions that are long industrial metals or even looking to buy things like um industrial commodities like crude oil, you number one thing you need for bullishness for next year, you need the stock market. And if it drops, we're going to have a correction. we're going to get that 11 that 120day volatility back to 17% at some point. It always goes there. It's just a question how long and then you respond. But for now at these levels, there's never it's been a great year I think to say thank you very much and go home pretty flat and in cash and particularly that's been happening in cryptos. >> Speaking of uh cash, I mean let's what do we got about eight minutes left? I want to make this actionable. I mean you painted that picture of a kind of a false positive where stocks are, you know, somewhat lying and commodities are telling the truth here, right? I mean, if I'm an investor sitting on cash today and I and I believe your thesis for 2026, where do I hide? I mean, is the trade long US treasuries? Is it cash or or is there a specific kind of sector that you think survives this great reversion? So I will repeat um what I've been the most wrong on for a couple years now and that is I think US Treasury bond yields the long bond or which you tenure right now to 4.14% is more likely to head towards what's on the case in China at 1.84%. I started in the bond pit bond futures pit in 1988 in Chicago trading in pits. I thought I knew that market the best. I've been wrong on that one for a couple years now. For me, that's the next big trade. And the all the dominoes are doing and the next catalyst is just a little bit of backup in US stock market. That's what's elevating um inflation um and keeping CPI elevated and pushing back in the Fed and everything is just the little 20% correction in US Treasury and it's in stock I'm sorry stock market and it stays down for a little while. I think that 10 year not yield right now at 4% is going to drop below three. >> Oh wow. >> But so that that to me is the next big trade. But here's a key problem. So, for I've been, you know, I I have to admit I've been not a big fan of stock market forever, but I found great beta in Bitcoin and gold. I jumped off the Bitcoin P um Bitcoin um horse last year just when I viewed as, you know, supposed to be selling when you're they're yelling. And I'm somewhat jumping off the gold horse this year because it's a very extreme market. And so that's why only the only thing I have left is Treasury bonds. >> Okay. What about uh US dollar? I mean, if the US is the only game in town, but the Fed is cutting rates, I mean, does the does the dollar crash in 26 or does it spike because of a flight to safety? I'm afraid it's going to continue to do what it did this year, um, and that is just follow the relative value of the US stock market versus the rest of the world. So, if you take the S&P 500, divide by the MSCI World XUS index, the dollar index has been in the same trade for since 2009, and they both come down this year. So the US stock market continues to underperform it peers in the rest of the world. I think that's going to be the same thing for the dollar. And the key thing from a US standpoint and what I've heard from some wealthy money managers is when you've accumulated so much wealth in dollars and assets, it's best to diversify. Now that's gold or assets outside the US. >> Yeah. Interesting. Wow. What a year, huh? I can't even believe it's almost Christmas. Mike, before I let you go, let's lock in some numbers for the archives. I mean, not forecast, just probability weighted kind of instincts. I'm going to give you a price target for the year end of 2026. You tell me. Is it over or under? Crude oil $60 a barrel. Over or under? >> Under. >> Yeah, you're going to 40. I know it. I know it. You're going to be right on that call. Uh okay. Gold at 5,00 say the same thing. Eventually might be right. Right. >> Yeah. Yeah. Gold at 5,000 announced next year, end of next year. >> I So here's the thing about gold next year. I think it could see 5,000 and 3500. The V it could do both. Typical kind of year like this is when it's done. Every time it gets could do both. The key thing is it's unlikely to stay above 5,000. And maybe here's the key thing. Maybe it'll meet the S&P 500 at 5,000. >> Interesting. And Bitcoin at back to 100,000. I mean, I saw a call of yours almost 40. >> I think it's going next year 50 and eventually on its way to 10,000. This the same call I made in 2008 when it went above 10,000 that it's going to lap off a zero. I was 70% right and 30% wrong. The low was 3,000. Same thing would have been been above 100,000. I think it's going to lop off off zero. So, I think the next the first key level is 50,000. And if I'm right about a normal bare market in the stock market, Bitcoin is going to get to 10. >> Wow. All right. And and finally, I mean, you you kind of brought it up there, but US 10-year Treasury yield, I mean, 3%. >> Yeah. Or lower. I think it's it's right now just about 4%. I think it's much to go to three or lower than stay above five. And the key thing is that long bond. That long bond has popped up the high this year is around 5.15%. That was a key level for 20 almost 25 years ago. I think it's more likely to drop with a normal backup in US risk assets, which means the stock market. >> Wild, what a year. Okay, we got the receipts. Uh, we'll see how they age, I guess. Here we go. Mike Mclo, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence. Always appreciate the honesty and the data. Thanks for joining us. Appreciate this, Mike. >> Thank you for having me. >> All right. We'd also like to thank our Outlook 2026 sponsor, Discovery, combining highquality gold producing assets in Canada with the world's largest undeveloped silver deposits in Mexico. And you can find out more by going to discovery silver.com. And that wraps up our outlook 2026 special. The message for the coming year is very clear from Mike here. Do not uh mistake a bull market in prices for a healthy economy. And the divergence between stocks and commodities is a loudest signal on the board. And when assets like oil and Bitcoin start flashing, it's time to pay attention. Now, if you value these deep dives and you want to stay ahead of the volatility in 2026, make sure you subscribed to the channel and hit that notification bell right now. We'll have a massive year of coverage uh ahead and you won't want to miss it. For all of us here at Kitco News, I'm Jeremy Sapper. Thanks for watching. Kitco News Outlook 2026 is brought to you by Discovery, a growing North American precious metals company.