Redefining Poverty: What $140K Means in Today’s U.S. Economy

Summary

Precious Metals: The guest is clearly bullish on precious metals, emphasizing their role in preserving purchasing power amid ongoing monetary debasement and policy-driven inflation.
Silver: A major focus was silver’s structural shift, with industrial demand set to consume all new mine supply, Asian vault drawdowns, signs of paper-price suppression breaking, and growing ETF inflows and institutional/central bank interest.
Gold: Framed as insurance against monetary accidents and inflation, with long-term outperformance vs. the S&P 500 and rising institutional acceptance (e.g., 60/20/20 equity/bond/gold allocations and expanded high-security storage in Singapore).
AI: Caution on the AI trade as economics “don’t math,” citing the IBM CEO’s capex warnings, Microsoft lowering AI sales quotas, and retail leverage chasing Nvidia-driven momentum that could unwind.
Santa Claus Rally: Seasonal year-end dynamics and bonus-driven performance chasing make it hard to be bearish into December, influencing positioning and risk-taking by professional managers.
Market Risks: Record margin debt and retail leverage highlight fragility in a passive-heavy market; the conversation flags inflation’s potential resurgence and global rate shocks (e.g., Japan) as additional risks.
401k Access to Metals: New guidance enabling commodities and precious metals in 401ks could channel flows into gold/silver over time; investors should ask employers for these options or self-directed windows.
Key Companies & Tickers: Nvidia (NVDA), Zoom (ZM), Microsoft (MSFT), IBM (IBM), and JPMorgan (JPM) were discussed to illustrate AI froth, past tech manias, and shifting precious metals market centers; the SLV ETF was referenced as a vehicle seeing renewed inflows.

Transcript

Nothing in this program should be considered investment advice. It is for educational purposes only. Please hit pause and read this disclaimer in full. They recognize even if I do make these sacrifices, I'm 6, 7, 8 years where house prices, all they've seen is continued to to to go up because of these government policies. [music] And they just get demoralized to the point it's like, you know what, I might as well have a little bit of instant gratification now. And I think that's the struggle that they're facing to an extent. Hello everyone. Welcome to this episode of FinanceU where we discuss all things financial hopefully with a minimum of jargon so you can understand it better. I'm Chris Martinson. And today we are going to be discussing well poverty. We're going to have to talk about what that really means. Really incredible article by Professor Plum. That's Michael Green. God, talk about the Santa Claus rally and also of course of course silver. And to do all of that with me today is Paul Ker of Kiker Wealth Management. Paul or should I say grandpa. Congratulations buddy. >> Thank you so much. Wow. What an amazing thing. So my daughter had her uh first child, little girl yesterday. So So I cried for the first 30 minutes. I hold her in my arms. If I'm not careful, I'll start crying again. It's the most amazing thing ever. And you know, I thought it'd make me feel like ancient old, but not really. [laughter] Well, congratulations. I'm still I'm still anxiously awaiting that moment. I don't know. I don't know when we're going to get there because, you know, um kids these days, it's it's a lot of them are holding off forming families for all sorts of reasons. Economic reasons being number one, but some of them are just like, "Wow, this world today, you know, would I really want to bring a kid into it?" Right? there there's all sorts of frictions that weren't there when I was making the decision back in the day. >> No, they're not. And my daughter Katie, she's an anomaly from that standpoint, you know, um having conversations with my oldest son and my my nephew, which is the same age, just how challenging it is environment to find a good quality relationship that's focused on the long term, that's like-minded and and uh so it's tough. It's tough. And Katie's an anomaly to be 24, married already, and and have her first child. So, wow. >> It's a blessing. >> It is a blessing. So, let's get started. Let's talk about this. Uh the Santa Claus rally. Let's start with that because that's a easy thing. Um December is the most likely month to be green. Here you can see 73% of the time it works every time. [laughter] >> Yeah. But but the Santa Claus rally is is uh is a thing, right? And and I always understood that is it's kind of like one of those common knowledge things because everybody knows that everybody knows that stocks go up those last two weeks right around Christmas. And one of the reasons for that is that that's when Wall Street bonuses that's when um many cases hedge funds when they calculate their 2 and 20 it's on that last it's on the performance when you close the year out. So there's a big incentive to just spike everything towards the end there amongst the people who play on Wall Street. That's the Santa Claus rally. It's not typically because things are better or fundamentals have come into play. How how have you experienced that over over your career? >> No, it's a real thing. I mean, the only year that I can remember that we didn't get the Santa Claus rally, just off the top of my head, is 2019 because the market was kind of cratering into Christmas. And it was so unusual during 2019 that it really stood out. So, it's it's real. It's something that you have to pay attention to when you're managing money. And even in this year, there's some positions that that that I'd like to unload that I want to defer those taxes into January. And um so so, you know, it's it's something that's real. It's something you have to pay attention to. It's tough to be really bearish right there towards the end of the year and especially this year because value stocks have struggled, dividend stocks have struggled if you're not in just that passive investment or if you're large cap growth where you're focused on the 10 top 10 stocks. You have real risk of getting fired by the seauite if you're a money manager. So there's there's a lot of year-end chasing where people try to close that gap towards the end of the year. professional money managers that have their head on a chopping block and and will either mirror the index or they'll they'll carry extra risk in the month of December to the upside and and be very careful to sell if just not sell going into the end of the year. So, it's a real deal. It's it's a it's something that influences our strategy when it comes into December. >> Yeah. Well, it's it's a real thing. So, you got to got to pay attention to it. Um but you know you and I have been struggling with this sort of gap between the actual what stocks are allegedly saying right and what's happening over in the real economy which we've noted in all kinds of things trucking freight layoffs um you know restaurant traffic on and on and on. You know, there's a dozen things over there that say, "Wow, people are struggling or the consumer is struggling." And we used to have a consumer economy, meaning if you could track what the consumer was up to. Usually, back in the day, Paul, all I had to track was real estate and vehicle sales as sort of big markers for where people were at in that story. And if those were falling off, probably all the rest of the details, too. That's all falling apart right now. Um, and yet nothing seems to matter. >> No, nothing seems to matter. And there was a period of time, I mean, in 27 years of doing this, I remember when there were normal economic cycles and the government didn't panic print money to shower everybody with ability to spend. So, a lot of it just doesn't make sense right now. >> Well, and I've been reading a lot, even, you know, big institutional managers are scratching their heads at this market going, "None of this makes sense. The math just isn't mathing." I found a pretty good explanation for that in QTR's Fringe Finance, which is Chris Irons writing the bull case, is that nothing matters anymore. It's a good article. >> That is a good article. I actually had it to reference in case we needed it. So that that was he makes a very good argument. >> Yeah. And he is just like us. He says, "I expect nominal prices of everything to drift, not maybe march higher, as governments and central banks eventually capitulate to the obvious, their only escape route from the irresponsible slow motion debt disaster they engineered as to quietly or recently not so quietly brutalized the middle and lower classes through inflation. In other words, they're going to print. They're going to print print." I I agree. I mean, I can't I actually haven't found anybody who disagrees with that fundamental thesis at this point. >> No. I mean, the thing is is everybody understands at this point because they've been clear as to what they're going to do and they're trying to be more proactive. You know, I uh I couldn't find the article for today, but from what I understand, the supplementary leverage ratio is being targeted or planned on being targeted by the Trump administration to allow the banks to carry more risk going into it's basically the same thing that led into the 2007208 uh market crisis. I'll have some more data on it later. I just didn't have time with being at the hospital yesterday to to pull that article up and a few other things. But um but you know that's dangerous. It gets us we're repeating the mistakes of the past. And you know what's the definition of insanity? Doing the same things over and over again and expecting different results. The you know the best thing that can happen right now is the Fed raise rates to 20%. Okay, just raise them to 20. Let the overleveraged individuals in the housing market collapse. Yeah, it's going to be painful, but that's going to drop prices down to the point that that you know the average, the middle class can come back and afford homes again. Right now, when you're when you when you're practicing this asset price inflation, they argued that it was trickle down economics, but it's destroying the middle class is what it's doing. >> So, it turns out that small businesses, oops, which um they're calling mom and pop businesses, >> hit a record as debts rise. So, this just came out. Um, and >> bankruptcy. >> Yep. So, so again, you know, it's it's a it's the not even the barbell economy, not even the K-shaped economy, whatever you want to call it. Like, one end is doing really, really well, but it's a tiny tiny end. Remember, we talked about it, Paul. It really shocked me, but I've chased it down. 50% of all consumer spending now is coming from the top 10% of households, right? They don't care. Stakes are $30 a pound. And you know, you just sort of pay it and maybe grumble a little, but but the top 10% is doing really well. And I predict after this next round of Fed printing, it'll be the top 5%. And then the top 1% and then we're Brazil, you know, slums and very rich people. And I don't want to go there. I wish somebody could talk about this from a policy standpoint. They are engineering a wealth gap, which obviously they've been doing this for years, but it's getting really critical at this point. You know, it's not a good place to live, I don't think. >> No, it's not. and it's demoralizing our younger generation. I think that's one of the reasons why you have uh the drug issues and the and the suicide issue and that we do within the country and the rebellion, you know, and Chris, the reality is, you know, I've been thinking about this a lot. What I see, one of the reasons I think that the mom and pop businesses are just being going these record bankruptcies is because nobody talks about monopolies within the country anymore. When I was growing up, you know, monopolies were a bad thing. Now you may not necessarily see it on I mean you do to an extent within within social media and others. They have these natural monopolies because of the technology but the private equity space is creating these minor you know these regional monopolies as well and these mom and pop businesses just can't keep up with them. They just can't because because these monopolies come in you know and I'll just pick an example. You know concrete manufacturers. If you go buy all the concrete manufacturers around, but you're the mom and pop that refuses to sell out and take that big check, well then they just undercut your prices until you go out of business and then they're going to buy you and then they're going to jack those prices up dramatically on on local participants. I mean, we have seen that dramatically with a with a local quarry and and once that local quarry came in and got purchased out by private equity and then they purchase a few others are around, you're paying massive increases in in you know gravel costs and any of those uh corey rocks that come out of there now. And I don't blame them for that business model, right? I mean, I don't blame them for trying to go that way. I mean, heck, that's what we would all do from a business standpoint if all we cared about was the revenue that we generated. But that's where you have to have checks and boundaries in place and the government is putting them in there and say, "Okay, we've got a free society. Monopolies are not a good thing. We're going to put some boundaries in place so that we can protect the middle class." But the middle class isn't the one that's lining these politicians with gifts and guaranteed careers and large donations on the other side. So unfortunately, like Charlie Munger says, "Show me the incentives and I'll show you the outcome." When your politicians have an incentive to to to put policies in place for the benefit of these emerging monopolies, you're going to get those monopolies. >> Well, worse, you're going to get graft in corruption, right? I It's fundamentally corrupt to me for a company to go and buy up all of the cement manufacturers and distributors and then jack up prices threefold, right? I that's fundamentally corrupt. That's It should not happen that way. Um, and but you know, I just read today that Ilan Omar, the congresswoman out of where? Minnesota. Um, >> she's worth 30 million now. Came in, you know, uh, worth 30,000, right? You hear this story over and over again. Somehow these Congress critters get in there and suddenly they're worth 5, 6, 7, 8, nine figures, right? And you're like, how does that happen on $174,000 a year salary? Because it's it's corruption. It has to be. Yes. >> There's no other way to make that kind of pocket change that quickly. >> There's no other way. And once you have a a politician that's corrupt, you can steer the direction of the country. And and here's the thing there. You're supposed to be a public servant. You're making a sacrifice to go serve the American people. You shouldn't be creating that type of wealth while you're sitting in there. I mean, show me how many businesses she has and show me how many, you know, what has she offered into society in those businesses to justify that net worth. As far as I know, there's not one. It's just I'm a politician and I get insider information and for that insider information I sell my soul uh to whoever gives it to me so that my balance sheet looks good at the expense of the people I'm supposed to serve. It's it's it's it is corrupt and it's evil at its core. It is >> well I feel like it's reaching a boiling point because more people are noticing now than ever. So and and of course that economic stress is bad. Now Paul, we're going to take a quick break. When we come back, I want to talk about how the math isn't mathing for AI and some people are also finally starting to notice there. It looks like reality is about to come crashing down on that sector. Be right back. Today's markets are more volatile than ever with ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainty. Navigating such environments requires thoughtful, adaptive [music] strategies, not a one-sizefits-all approach. At Peak Financial Investing, our [music] registered investment advisory firm connects clients with experienced wealth managers who focus on active [music] portfolio management. These professionals use evidence-based strategies designed [music] to respond to changing conditions, not outdated formulas, but customized [music] approaches grounded in research, discipline, and risk awareness. We believe in open, informed conversations, [music] including discussing tools like precious metals and diversification as part of a broader financial [music] strategy. Every investor's situation is unique, and our advisers tailor their guidance accordingly. Visit peakfinancialinvesting.com [music] today to schedule your free consultation and explore how proactive management can support your financial goals. I'm Dr. Chris Martinson, [music] proud to work with Peak Financial Investing and my support reflects my professional views. I encourage you to take control of your financial future [music] by making informed decisions. All right, welcome back everybody. Paul, let's start with this. Um, the math ain't math. Uh, Kristen Shaughnessy notes here, finally more people are doing the math. quote, "The IBM CEO says there is no way spending trillions on AI data centers will pay off at today's infrastructure costs." He um walked through some napkin math on data centers and said no way to turn a profit. He said at 8 trillion of capex, that means you need roughly 800 billion of profits just to pay for the interest. H >> that math doesn't work. >> What about what about the principal? >> Right. Right. Can we pay that? Like it just doesn't math. And and by the way, these are rapidly depreciating assets. You know, the data center itself might have a 10 20 year lifespan, but the chips inside two to three years I'm hearing now for the for the ones that are burning the hottest, right? >> Yes. Yeah. Well, and I've heard basically a year and a half on the uh emergence of technology that you're behind the curve. So if you're having to make that reinvestment every year and a half that goes along with it, you're never going to get rid of that that debt that you've accumulated. So now you're just paying this interest forever. At some point you're going to run into a mathematical wall. And obviously the IBM CEO is calling that out right now. >> Sure. And and um there's a little reality sneaking in as well because um as I said, you know, I talked about that principle and all that component, but here um Microsoft lowers AI software sales quota and of course Nvidia shares turned negative on that in the pre-market and then next thing you know um the futures took a little tumble today at the time of this recording. But as we've noted, Paul, man, they're resilient. They take a tumble and just these green needle bottoms, they just go straight back up again, [laughter] right? >> Who's doing all that buying? Who is doing that, do you think? >> Well, that's a good question. I mean, from what I'm seeing in some of the data, it's just retail is going all in. I mean, at this point, it's it's yolo. You only live once. You know, during co it was buy your second house. You know, you never know if you're going to live long enough to experience it or not. So, I think we finally reached the point where what SoftBank I have to go back and and do a search on it again. In November, Soft Bank, Peter Thiel, and somebody else sold all of their Nvidia shares to the tunes of billions of dollars worth of uh Nvidia >> and it barely hits the market. But yet, you've got retail that's just all giddy over the fact that that hey, they they found their lottery ticket at this point. So, I really think they finally created the environment where the average retail individual who doesn't take the time to think critically or do the math. They're just caught up in the euphoria that they're they're embracing leverage and you know and and I think we were talking about this before. I'll share this here real quick. Kobes later came comes out. I think this has something to do with it. So, what is the I'll have to go back and look at what the S&P is year to date, but Kabesi later puts out US margin uh debt jumped 52 billion in October to a record 1.2 trillion. Okay, one 1.2 trillion is such a large number. The average person doesn't really capture that. Uh this is the sixth consecutive monthly increase. So, look at this. Look at this chart right here. Okay, everybody started to go all in and and let me make that a little bit larger. Everybody started to go all in in 2021. Then we had that market peak. You know, reality sets itself back in and then the market turns and look, you know, this is just more panic behavior from a margin standpoint. >> Wow. >> But it let's look at the statist the percentage increase because that's something people can understand a little bit more. So margin debt for trading has risen 285 billion. Big number or plus 32% year to date. Okay. So, so you got plus 32% on margin debt, but yet the market's up what, somewhere between 12 to 15 at this point. I have to look at it to see. Over the last 6 months, margin debt has surged 39%, the biggest jump since 2000. This has been even larger increase than during the 2021 meme stock mania. So, I think you've just finally reached the point where the average person is just desperate enough. They're not patient. They don't understand historical economic cycles and they don't realize this is the perfect invest environment for these big investors to offload their shares on these individuals. Why are they gaining margin? And they're embracing the largest amount of risk at really the worst point when everybody's starting to question the thesis of what's taking place within the AI uh market space. And then there's one other thing that was really good that I want to point out >> while you're looking for that related. I was just trolling Reddit the other day and there's a couple there's one subreddit called Wall Street Bets and these are just crazy like people. But I was looking at r/investing which is supposed to be about investing and this person had put up their portfolio and said they had they were doing really great. They were operating at 3.2x leverage and they were kicking themselves because they should have they should have bumped that to 5x leverage, right? And then all the people under there like talk discussing ways that you could do that. These are the kinds of people who are a using that margin debt b if this is like 2000 again they're just going to get their you know what handed to them on a platter when the downturn comes. >> They are and these professional investors right even the ones that aren't immoral in their behavior just understand these bigger cycles that they're more patient. So they pay attention to valuations. They don't they they know that they don't tell you where the market top is, >> but there's a point that it reaches such an extreme that they're like, "Hey, we're going to take our profits out of here. We're going to build our our war chest, as I call it." So, I keep telling my oldest son, like, you're in real estate. Build your war chest right now because if you have money available when everything comes apart, you're the anomaly. And that's an opportunity of a lifetime. Real wealth is not built at the peak of the cycle. Real wealth is built at the bottom of the cycle. But you got to have money available to do it. So, so yeah. Um, hey, and then one thing that I wanted to share here because this is relevant just just to put into perspective. So, Samantha Luck points this out, you know, great example of the Z club play that uh that topped in October. So, when Zoom uh was $600ish a share in 2020, it had 20 million in income. Now Zoom is $87 with two billion in income. Okay. So you look at this, their revenue has increased from 20 million to 20 billion. She's responding to uh to Kevin Malone here. Uh from 20 million to 2 billion, but the stock went from 550ish to what 87ish here. So So the market just got ahead of itself in the actual impact and where that was going to be. And once reality set in, that money went somewhere else. But there was a lot of retail bag holders that are like, "Hey, I I'm I'm a holder." But institutions took that mania as an opportunity to sell and go somewhere else. Well, and and as a passive income investor, you got just absolutely taken advantage of in that situation, right? Because you're just dollar cost averaging. You're putting X amount in per month, per week, whatever your cadence is into your 401k or what your vehicle is. And anyway, it goes into the market, right? And so then that goes over to maybe a big S&P ETF. The ETF is just like, well, we got 500 companies. Zoom is one of them. In it goes, right? And guess what? That money went in and it came back out again. So, somebody paid for that. And passive people are paying for that. Now, that's just a that's just how it works, right? Um, and I I I'm I feel bad watching these companies ring those piggy banks over and over again. you know, they just they come in, they have no earnings or poor earnings or, you know, they've got this like I think the Zoom thing we understand because suddenly everybody is working from home and the thesis was, wow, they're just going to be raking it in because they're the only realistic alternative for having meetings virtually, right? Well, guess what? That's a competable space and competition showed up and here we are. It's how it always goes. >> And and and it was true. Look, 20 20 million to two billion like that's a huge business growth over that period of time. [snorts] I was reluctant to use Zoom prior to COVID just because the uh just because I I valued that face-toface relationship aspect now. But now that I've learned it, it doesn't matter to me if it's Zoom or is face to face because I have learned to utilize it. So it's obviously embedded in the society, but the stock price cratered. That's not what investors were expecting to occur. >> Yep. But that's what's happened. It happened in the internet bubble to Cisco and all the other stocks. Even Amazon back in the year 2000. Didn't see its price high again until 2011 or 2012 based off of memory. I could be off a year there, but but this is just the continual common mistake that investors continue to make if they don't have a strategy. And most people don't have a strategy because they've been marketed passive investing is the way to do it. And the only strategy in passive is just throw a bunch of money on the wall and hope it sticks. And we've been in an environment where that where we have seen the ultimate strengths of that approach without the weaknesses. We're getting ready to transition. I believe I don't know exactly when we're getting ready to transition into a period where we shift from the strengths of that strategy into the weakness. And what most investors don't understand, and this is why I get so frustrated when people are chasing performance, is past performance can give you an indication of the strengths and weaknesses of a strategy, but it doesn't predict what it's going to do in the future. Okay? And so many people think that's going to happen. They extrapolate what happened in the past and they predict it in the future. But one thing about Wall Street, whether it's value investing or growth investing, once you get on that top level and performance standpoint, you might as well mark your time that somebody else is going to replace you because different strategies perform better in different environments. And once everybody gets into one strategy, that's the point where something else is going to merge because that big ball of money once it sees something that looks a little bit more attractive shifts over there. And those that don't have a strategy to make those adaptations just end up being completely frustrated investors over time. And my concern about where we are now, many of them are going to have massive disappointment and what their retirement looks like because because of their expectation that this passive pass is going to continue for the next 10 to 15 years. And I do not believe that it's going to. It's just math. Well, you know, to take the other side of that, it's possible that what the stock market with its boolean resilience is actually signaling is the Venezuela effect, which is look, we all know the Fed's going to print. And when they do, that money is going to have to go somewhere and it's probably going to go where's it going to go? It's probably going to go into stocks again, right? Even though we've lost the plot line because now suddenly the whole plot seems to be number goes up, right? And I have my financial assets are doing well, but the plot was supposed to be that we're a nation of people. we care for each other as we would care for ourselves. That that we have some sense of we're in this together, you know, as a as a whole tribe and uh that it's really about making sure that your young people are incentivized, back to the Munger quote, to start families so that we have the next generation coming along in good shape, not demoralized, not depressed, not on drugs, not checked out on on video games, but that they're they're in the game, right? I mean, you know, now that you're a grandfather, I mean, this whole legacy thing, the older I get, the more I realized that that dollar chasing thing I did as a young man, I look at it now and like that, oh, that wasn't the point. It's not the point. But I feel like it's become the whole point of our markets at this point because they don't seem to care about, >> they don't care that underneath structurally, >> this is a stupid expensive country to do business in. Um, underneath all of this, we have more rules and regulations. you know, even if we wanted to get more copper out of the ground. Good luck getting that past the regulators. I mean, on and on, right? >> You know, it's just like the larger story can't just be about your financial assets always going up in price. But I feel like that's kind of what it's mostly become. I think that's the focus of >> the Fed, you know? I really wish somebody would just bang on them and say, "Hey, you're destroying the younger generation here. Care to explain your behaviors and how this pencils out?" >> You know, >> but they they can't see it. they can't see it because unless you've walked in somebody else's shoes, you really don't understand what they've been through. Now, there's two things I want to bring up. One, which is something I've thought about for a while, but another thing is I can't disagree with you that if they just continue to print that maybe the S&P 500 just continues to drift higher, but we've already seen maximum opportunity for somebody that can adapt, right? So, there has been an adaption with this realization in the fact that that hey, they may just continue to print at this point if they can keep this thing going. But what has gold done? Gold's outperformed the S&P 500 now over the past 30 years based on the data. The large majority of that outperformance has happened what in the last five years. And then you look at what's taken place with silver. You look at what's taken place with uranium. These asset classes that that Wall Street and passive says don't have any exposure to have now already started to shift gears and outperform that passive category. So, so if you have some adaptation in there, there are still better places that you can shift to to better protect your purchasing power with lower amounts of risk. Now, I think the next gear of that is going to be emerging markets at some point and international investments at some point, especially if we start printing to the point that we start having issues with the dollar. So, I still I still believe like if I didn't see these the ability to make adaptations to address your portfolio to increase your performance with less risk, then I would just kind of throw in the towel and say, "All right, they're going to win this game. We just got to stay in the S&P 500." But, but that's just not how that big money ball works over time because you're really intelligent investors. you would be you being one of them recognizing the opportunity in precious metals uh over the past 20 years and then paying attention to the math making the decision and being patient to let the market come to you. >> So um >> took it took some patience too but it seems to come here. >> Yeah. >> And the best investments do. >> Oh, of course. Um and it's it's fundamental. So you're let's talk about another tension that I think you've illustrated here nicely which is it's the tension between what I call reality and fiction right and there's always a bubbles we we categorized before I have two components right ample credit and a good story right it's eyeballs it's tulip bulbs it's whatever AI has some of the flavors the aromomas of that it's definitely don't get me wrong a transformative technology and it's maybe also disruptive but you can tell when we've gotten ahead of ourselves feel like quietly reality is starting to get a seat at the table again. So Paul, we're going to take a quick break. When we come back, I want to talk about silver and how it illustrates that story perfectly. So [music] we'll be right back. Hey folks, Chris Martinson [music] here. 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Take charge of your future, folks. Don't wait for the system to fail you any further. Head over to peak.ban/goldcore. [music] That's peak.ban/goldcore right [music] now and claim that free storage. You won't regret it. I sure don't. All right, welcome back everybody. Paul silver. So uh when I talk about gold and silver and by the way I can talk about these because they're not specific securities and I'm not it you know either for or against any particular thing. I'm just talking about a commodity class. So that's well within within my regulatory wheel has to be able to do this. So but silver to me was just a fundamental story and it's different from gold. Gold and silver sometimes is said as one word and they're two words and I have and I value them intensely for different reasons. Gold is my insurance policy against a monetary accident or inflation. And it's proven, like you said, over 30 years. A very, very good, solid, stalwart way of not getting rich, but just avoiding my savings being destroyed by the Fed's openly stated policy of destroying my savings. They call it a 2% inflation target. It's actually been closer to 4.8% for 5 years. So, I think we're missing out. >> Silver, it's kind of a hybrid. It has a little bit of a monetary got a lot of monetary history. Only India has monetized it within a sovereign regime at this point in time because you can collateralize a loan against it. Otherwise, it's an industrial metal. And from a from a use standpoint, 2025 is on track to be the first year in record where 100% of mine output, fresh mine output, is going to be consumed just by industrial processes. So, none's left over for photography, jewelry, investment, right? But the not so quiet thing that's been happening, which most people may not know, this is silver on a weekly chart. So here's 2025, the beginning of it. Let's get it right here. This is 2025 beginning right here. Right? It's up 100%. In 2025, started at about just just under 30 and now it's just under 60. Um, so that's not a stealth move. >> That's a slowly then all at once. Uh, everybody plays catch-up a little bit. Not everybody. >> It's the game has changed. So, see this? See how it's just pegged here? It's like going nowhere. It's just like down a little, up a little. I'm sure those were very painful to me at the time, but it was pegged here at $15 an ounce, right? [laughter] And then all of a sudden it has a little popup and now it's just pegged here, >> right? And then it goes to here to 30 and you know there was a big fight at 35, but now it seems to have entered a new regime. That's what I want to talk about with people because something has definitely changed in this story and it really broke right here in October. This is where the story really just just went south for the for the people who have been this is manipulated pricing back here. This is this is what this is. >> Okay. So, >> so step one, hey, silver ETF inflows um are returning. So, this would be I think SLV. So, like money's coming in. Um, ounces are coming in. And by the way, what was it? A couple months ago, do you remember this, Paul, that that um the prospectus for SLV came out and number three on the holder list, I think, or number four, I forget exactly where, was Saudi Arabia's central bank. >> Yes. >> And that was the first time >> I saw a central bank um show up as a silver buyer. So, I thought that was noteworthy. >> That is noteworthy. And there's a lot of things that are just continuing the momentum in that space. Um let me see here. So in that executive order that we talked about that allowed private equity to get into into um 401ks. >> Yeah. >> It also it also opens up the door for commodities. Okay. So let me share this and and this is something that I want to share with people out there and I'm just I'm just >> I'm just adding on it from a momentum standpoint. So, Certuitity has got, you know, insights from September the 3rd of 2025. So, if anybody wants to go read this, I'm not going to highlight the whole thing, but they did a good job of putting this together. You know, what this new guidance mean for retirement, why this change is significant, and what are considered alternative investments. So, in the context of this new policy, alternative assets for 401k purposes include private e private market investments, private equity, venture capital, and nonpublic. You know, we both talked about how dangerous that is and the opportunity to offload. Uh, also real estate, direct ownership, REACH, real estate back debt, digital assets, uh, now considered for 401ks, commodities, precious metals, energy resources, and agricultural products. So, uh, infrastructure, and you've got lifetime income solutions. Now, what's interesting about this and it's got, you know, potential benefits and everything that goes in, but what's interesting is this really changes and gives the flexibility for the fiduciaries of 401ks. So, back when I first started in the career, one thing I thought I would be a specialist in is 401ks. So, I learned everything about 401ks and then realized that's just not a market that I really enjoyed working in. But, but I ended up designing a lot of 401ks for employers. So as the fiduciary responsibility you had you had to give options to the participants but you couldn't give them too uh too uh risky or fancy for lack of coming up with a better term options because you run risk as an employer if you put that in there. So that's one of the reasons why most 401ks don't have any uh alternative investments. They don't have your precious metals. Now, I've designed 401ks to put precious metals options in there. And then you have the self-directed portal where that kind of absolves most employers from responsibility. I'm not an attorney. That's not a recommendation. I'm just saying it reduces that risk a little bit because your [snorts] participant can go out and have self-directed. I wish every 401k had it out there because that's something that really opens up the options and reduces liability for the employer. But by by having these as available options and and as investments in the 401k, one thing I want to tell you as a participant out there, those that are listening, if your 401k provider, your company doesn't offer these precious metals options to you and and some of your other alternatives like energy, you have to make your voice known to your HR and to those uh that are on the board of that to say, "Hey, this is an option I would like to have." And if you don't want to give that to me, then at least amend the plan. so that we can have an a self-directed portal to the outside. So, the interesting thing is is like you've got this big move that's taking place in silver because of all the fundamentals that are out there, but you still don't have the average retail person coming into it. Can you imagine when you start to see the flows go into these precious metals and energy spaces that we've seen go into the mag 7 over the next 3 to 5 years if these prices continue, just how high these prices can go? I mean, we're nowhere near a mania yet. Now, it's scary for a lot of us that have been in it and you see prices move this far this fast because I have to mentally steal myself. Hey, we may go sideways for a year or two or we may not. But the reality is is the market is starting to realize more people are starting to realize the fundamental story behind metals. And going back to that that you know the country of India Chris that's a big deal that they're going to allow silver to be uh used as collateral 10 to one against gold. I mean, if I'm an Indian bank and I can buy silver for 60 or 70 or 80 or $100 an ounce and I can loan it at 400, you're effectively allowing the printing of that money. So, there's that's in incentivizing their individuals. And now that we have this available within 401ks, if enough participants say, "I want this option." It may be an ETF or a mutual fund, but now that opens it up for other individuals to be able to slowly start putting money in that direction. And that big ball of money with as much as they printed means that prices can probably go a lot higher and be a lot more volatile than anybody anticipates they will be in the years ahead. Yeah. Yeah. And and by the way, it used to be, Paul, that you know, there were gold bugs. It was crackpot. It was fringe. At least in the West, right? Bloomberg was beating on us. CNBC, there was just like it was denigrated for years. But all of a sudden, as we talked about last time or the time before, it's not so fringe anymore when the Morgan Stanley chief investment officer, not some random broker in Topeka, Kansas, the CIO favors a 6020 portfolio strategy. That's 60% equities, 20 bonds, 20 gold, right? So, this isn't silver per se, which we're sort of our topic, but this is this is a big shift. You can feel it coming. And I saw this incredible the Wall Street Journal week ago put out this they just put a really nice information video, six, seven minutes, really well produced. And they went to Singapore and because they're like, "Wow, there's people wanting to store their gold in Singapore. Let's go check it out." They're talking with this really well-healed guy. Um, and the facility, Paul, was intense. It was so modern and had just monster like 40 foot ceilings and just racks everywhere. That one facility they mentioned has the capability to store 10,000 tons of silver >> which is I don't know 1.6 billion or something. Now in the scheme of billionaires and millionaires and centmillionaires you know that top 1% >> it's not a lot of money on a percentage basis. So that one facility Paul could hold 41% of yearly mine output. There's probably more than one facility in Singapore. Oh and there's one in the UAE and they've got one in in Saudi Arabia and oh Russia's building a strategic reserve. This is happening off around the world. And so that's part of what I want to talk about is silver is not it used to just be a London New York story. London >> giving you physical delivery. New York providing the paper base to sort of offset hedge and keep that all coraled and contained. So New York and London had had a pricing power monopoly on this market for decades. >> That's what's breaking down right now. And I think that's that's uh people should be alert to that. Um, and and just to show like I've showed this before, but this just drives me nuts. If you wanted to buy silver and if you just owned it during New York open hours, right? So that's that's when all the pricing power gets set. So that's basically from 8 until 4:00, right? Yeah. If you owned it just from 8 to 4, it turns out starting in in 1970, your silver actually is only worth it looks like 15 cents an ounce. Wow. >> It's just it's just lost everything. But if you held it outside of those hours, what's called the overnight hours, so you own it from 4:01 till 8 in the morning the next day, your silver is now worth $331 an ounce. So, the rest of the world buys it and we sell it. [laughter] That's been the whole game. And so, um, this is really important. So, we're recording this here on December 3rd. Um, I just want to point this out. We affectionately call those paper raids uh Mr. Slammy in the silver community. And Mr. Slammy shows up. This is last night at 12:30. Mr. Slammy shows up and just this is this is I've seen this so many times in my silver career just dumping these. These are huge amounts. This is probably in the vicinity of 15 or 20 million ounces of silver just sold into the market in and these are one minute candles. So it's just within you know 5 10 minutes like just boom just here's millions of ounces in this thinly traded overnight market. Now what normally happens is you would see this drift lower and lower and lower but it didn't. It bounced back and held and then it started worse. It started climbing in the London market and then 8:00 our market opens up. It goes up by they slammed it. This is uh I calculated this. This is 18 million ounces dumped in 4 minutes. >> Oh no it keeps climbing back. So this is brand new behavior. this thing that allowed this to happen where they controlled the price with paper dumps for decades since 1970. This is not working anymore. And this is important for people to understand. That regime of price suppression is now breaking. And the question is not only Paul, how far underwater has that beach ball been held, but it's been inflating the whole time. The question is, what happens when that beach ball comes rocketing out of there? and institutions are the ones that operate overnight and international investors and US retail is during the daytime. So that tells you who's been uh manipulating that price for their own benefit. Hey, one question I want your opinion on. So what do you think about JP Morgan closing out their uh precious metals trading desk in New York and they moved to Singapore? Correct. >> They did. >> So what do what do you think about that? >> It's huge news. It it's so the reason you would go to Singapore is now you're in the active time zone where actual pricing has been set. JP Morgan moves to where the money actually is. Singapore and Shanghai are now being set up as as the place where the actual like London's dead. The London the LBMA killed their market and good riddens. They they just treated it shabily and they made promises they couldn't keep and they failed to regulate it properly by making sure that there was one owner for every bar. They started hypothecating and lending and leasing and rehypothecating and anyway playing games and they couldn't deliver. That's what happened in October, right? There was a there was a full-on default there as far as I'm concerned, which is I made a promise to deliver and I couldn't. >> Great. You defaulted on the contractual obligations set forth in the in the terms. >> So, I think what this means is JP Morgan is moving theirelves closer to where the actual action is. That's why they do what they do. They JP Morgan's here to make money. >> That's where the money can be made now. That's how I see it. >> Yeah. I I mean, I thought that was a massive deal. That's just another And it was heartbreaking to me because it tells you that that the US is not the place to be at this point. And if they're making that move over there, they have a responsibility and and look, they're they're going to chase those profits. I believe that that's a big deal. It's just another signpost along the road that shows that the US is losing its dominance in many areas. And if they lose the dominance over suppressing the silver price, the question is is what is the real price going to be? And then if you throw upon on top of that a declining dollar in the years ahead at some point, that's going to even supercharge that. And and I go back and I think about if you were if you were a German citizen during the Wymer Republic and you could see the handwriting on the wall and and you deviated from the herd a little bit and you positioned some of your assets in US dollars because the German market was a lot stronger than US dollar back then or even more so in metals that could protect your purchasing power. Then you you protected, you know, did you build massive amounts of wealth? Maybe. Maybe on on paper, but all you did was protect your purchasing power while everybody else was falling behind. >> Indeed. Paul, we're going to take one more quick break right here and um we'll be right back, everybody. We're going to There's [music] really astonishing data coming out from China right now around silver. We'll do that and then we'll get into the discussion of poverty. We'll be right [music] back. Markets are facing heightened uncertainty and thoughtful portfolio management has never been [music] more important. If your current strategy relies solely on passive investing or diversification without active [music] oversight, it may be time to consider a different approach. At Peak Financial Investing, we connect you with experienced [music] wealth managers who actively manage portfolios using disciplined, research-driven strategies designed to adapt to evolving market conditions. Our focus is on helping [music] clients navigate volatility with clarity and confidence. While no investment strategy [music] can guarantee results or eliminate risk, we believe that preparation and active [music] management can make a meaningful difference over time. Visit peakfinancialinvesting.com [music] to schedule a complimentary consultation and explore whether our approach aligns with your goals. I'm Dr. Chris Martinson and I am proud to support [music] Peak Financial Investing. This is not a guarantee of future performance, but a call to take your [music] financial planning seriously. Again, that's peak financialvesting.com. [music] Investing, of course, involves risk, including the potential loss of principle. [music] Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please consult with a qualified adviser before making investment decisions. All right, welcome back everybody. We're going to continue our discussion of silver right now because this is so Paul what we're describing here is is actually it's not just like oh something exciting in silver maybe you know we could make some gains in there. It's that what we're talking about is silver is sort of the bellweather, the canary in the coal mine for a complete changing of the monetary guard. For decades, King dollar everything was just about how many dollars you had. We emitted trillions of them. Nobody actually knows how many because we don't have accurate accounting, you know, anymore of offshore dollar holdings. Nobody quite knows. But that enabled Japan to be this big carry trade emitter of massive quantities of credit that's now reversing. We can take a look at that data in a minute. Um so this is a big shift and decades of price suppression was carried out specifically they said this in documents I could show you. I forgot to bring them up for this, but they said, "Oh, we should really suppress the price of gold so that people don't catch on and lose faith in all the dollar holdings that we're emitting because we'd we'd like them, you know, when we Saudi Arabia sells us a billion dollars of oil, we'd like them to just hold dollars and not return them to us for anything tangible." You know, that's been the game. That's what we're really talking about, which is why silver is a fun thing to talk about cuz we're tracking the beginning of the end of one monetary regime and there's a whole new one coming and how you position yourself for that I think is going to be make or break for >> family finances. I I I think so. >> I think you're right. And and just to make that analogy simple for people out there, it it's a marker in your blood work. There's all these things that you can look at, but this is a big marker. It's like kidney function taking place in somebody's uh society. Now, you know, silver price and moving says, "Hey, there's something going on within our our our economy here, the body of our economy, and this is blood work that we've got to pay attention to." >> I think that's very well said. So, um let's look at some of that blood work right here. So, China, so here's the thesis. It used to be that New York and London conspired uh to keep themselves in total lockdown control over the price of silver. I don't know why they went so crazy on it. Paul, it's not even close. Silver isn't like got a slightly elevated short interest relative to any other commodity. When we look at the total short interest relative to yearly mine output, it's over a year's worth of mine output is short right now. And that's even without me being able to get my hands on all the option data because I can't it's kind of hard to get a get a hold of that uh for me. So what oil oil is important? Yeah, there's about three days of production short on oil corn. Yeah, we we need to eat grains and things usually between three weeks and a month, not 12 months. So, how did why why did silver get to be it's not even that important like from a size standpoint, but somehow it was important enough for this machine to just just develop this huge huge short interest in it uh that giant beach ball underwater. So, do you have any sense like why did they care like why silver? Why did silver become the thing that they focus so much attention on? >> I don't know. I've never I I've not been able to put that together. I mean, obviously, they see something in the big picture that we don't see within the inner workings of the economy. Is it the fact that the average retail person is going to move on silver before they're going to move on gold? I mean, that's one thing that the average person feels like, hey, I can go buy an ounce of silver at $60. The average person can't necessarily go buy an ounce of gold at 4,100. So, you know, they they think in those prices. So, I really don't know. I don't know. It's it's obviously important from a long-term standpoint that that there's something they see that we don't. >> Well, the game could continue as long as they didn't lose or fumble the ball, lose their grip on physical pricing because that's that's the Achilles tendon in this whole thing, the Achilles heel. On that front, um this is the latest uh data every morning. um by Xin on X uh goes out of his way to tell us what's in the SHFE vaults and the SGE silver vaults combined. Minus 28 tons here, plus 32 tons there. So it looks like they shifted some from here to here. But when you add those two numbers together, you end up with about um 1300 tons. And by the way, that would be right here on this chart, you can see it's just leaving. silver is just leaving the Shanghai vaults, combined vault totals, and it just keeps trundling out the door. It can't go to zero. They have a working interest that they're going to need to maintain. Um, but I could imagine based on this, this is private individuals. So, as we've discussed, uh, Chinese are savers. Typically, 30% of income is saved. Real estate, no bueno. That's tanking on them hard. So, that's not a safe place. Not really big into equities, but maybe they'll catch the bug. But they are buying gold and silver and they're taking it home. And I would also expect some industrial concerns are like I'd like it too in I I just I have a year's worth of solar panel production. Tell you what, let me just get the silver in in the my personal warehouse so I can plan for the next year of output. I think that's what's happening here. But >> yeah, >> we're running out of like physical stuff. And Mr. Slammy just keeps thinking he can dump some paper contracts. It's all going to pencil out. And it's getting it's getting volatile and I expect it's going to break upwards pretty hard at some point. And then I have a question. Do they just let the price do what it's going to do because oops, they they fumbled or 2008 style, did the big banks go crying to the regulators and the government and say this is unfair. We we like to make money all those years, but it's unfair that we would lose money now. So in typical banker form, heads we win, tails you lose. Did did they go and get the rules changed? you know, >> well, you would think so. I mean, that's been the behavior that's taken place in the past because the politicians have been able to bail them out at the expense of the American taxpayer. >> So, the big question is, >> will the governments utilize that um them getting into that position as an opportunity to let the banks collapse and roll out a central bank digital currency of some point and wrestle that power away from the banking system? >> I've heard people argue that that's a possibility. I doubt it though at this point because if they're not willing to let us just have a normal garden variety recession and they're willing to to destroy future generations with debt for the fact of keeping us from having a normal recession, it's highly unlikely that they're going to let these banks collapse and and they'll probably use our funds to step in and bail them out. I'm not going to >> Land of the free. Home of the >> land of the free. Yeah. [laughter] land of the Oh, there's all kinds of thoughts that came to mind right there, but they had a couple of expletives tied, so I'll let that go by. [laughter] >> Well, I don't know if this next segment's gonna help much because we got So, you know, we do talk finance and things financial, but to me, there's not a crisp boundary before you sort of become philosophical because I I believe that money should just be this commodity. It's a medium of exchange so that the rest of what we need to do, which is lead rich, productive lives, add value, you know, grow older, become wise, mature, watch our children have grandchildren, you know, that's the point. And I feel like our money system has become about something else. And it's almost become the point. And so, um, that's why I think, you know, I'm really distraught, Paul, watching the number of kids, and that's anybody under 30 for me these days, who are demoralized. They just feel like they have no entrance, no foothold, no way to get started in this. And I've watched a really astonishing process where people my age and above almost viciously attacking young people for their failings when truthfully my generation failed to leave behind a better world. And everybody can throw their hands up and say, "Oh, Paul, it wasn't me personally." But truthfully, we're responsible for what our generation does. Every generation has its own sort of thing that you have to say, well, that kind of happened on our watch. So, is it nobody's fault that we self-enriched our generation at the expense of the next generations? And maybe we should have that conversation. So, that's where it gets a little philosophical. I'm sure I've already annoyed some people. Maybe a few people clicked off, you know, this podcast, but I think we should have the conversation. I think we should, too. And it's very important because we all have responsibility in the degradation of our society because the only thing that has to take place for evil to reign is for good men and women to stand by and say nothing. Right? If we care more about being liked than we do about standing up for for morality, truth, and justice, then we're participating in the degradation of our society. Now, to be to be fair, I know the baby boomers get picked on a lot at this point. I work with a lot a lot of them just don't know what to do right like I mean the political process is outside of their control and they would but they may not be gifted with the ability to stand up and public speak in front of others so they just don't know what to do but having conversations about it and and loving the truth enough to embrace the reality and really say okay maybe they're right that I'm here because I've had the wind at my selves through my entire generation let me really go have conversation with the younger generation and find out exactly what it is that they're facing and try to put myself in their shoes so that I can understand their complaints because it's one thing if they're just complaining, right? It's another thing if your your drug addiction rates are going through the roof. Okay, so is the has the world on drugs worked? I mean, obviously not. There's more addiction now than we've ever seen. Why are suicide rates going up? Why why is the younger generation not able to purchase homes? Right? There's all of these fruits of what uh are being produced that are causing the demoralization of the younger younger generation. But it takes really setting down our pride and listening instead of instead of thinking we know the answer and you can do the same things we do. economies are evolving and adapting and I think I think that would make a big difference just having those those conversations and actually listening. >> I completely agree because demoralization is an important word. It's not depression. Totally different concept, right? And demoralization is a psychosspiritual crisis when your cognitive map is not aligning with reality. So if you're a tiger, your cognitive map is I'm supposed to be out stalking prey. And if your reality is iron bars in an 8 by10 cell, um it can lead to you know, what we call demoralization. Same thing. You know, kids are like, "Oh, you have to just work hard, get good, you know, get good grades, and it'll all sort of pencil out. That's the mental map." And they're out here looking at reality going, "It doesn't it doesn't track at all anymore." And so, that's why I want to talk about this because Professor Plum, uh, Michael Green, Professor Plum is his exhandle. And he he put out this this uh thing called My Life is a Lie. And it was came out on November 23rd. Paul, you raised my attention to it. It's got 3,345 hearts and likes and got it took got a lot of traction and because he he broke down in here that the poverty line is he's defining it or redefining it is actually 140,000 per household. People like what? And so he actually was on CNN uh defending this and he said 140k doesn't mean you're literally poor. It's really the threshold at which you can cover all of the expenses without government assistance and start saving. So if you can't save, you can't ever get ahead and you're only one paycheck away from disaster. So poor is sort of that threshold poverty line. Poverty is that threshold line where if you're above it, you have some buffer in your life. And if you're below it, man, you are one accident, whether self-imposed or random, away from ruin. Does >> that feel like a fair place to start? >> Oh, it really does. And and I have to say, first of all, I have to apologize to the listeners that listened last week because I'm a hypocrite and I apologize because I challenged everybody to go to Thanksgiving and set their phones down and listen. Okay. >> Yeah. >> What happened to be fair to be fair, I did that uh through the whole day and we're fellowshipping with the whole family until later that afternoon. my father-in-law and my brother-in-law's dad, they're 82 and 86, like to watch pro ball. Now, there's no temptation for me. I love high school football and I love college football, but pro ball I I struggle with. So, I pull it up and I see that Michael Green's posted that that letter. So, I'm reading it. I'm reading it and it just clicked for me. I've not been able to put a put, you know, to explain as clearly as he did in that article why families are struggling so much. So, I get into this debate, you know, with with my father-in-law and my brother-in-law's father, if I'll keep that up in there. And it turns into quite the debate. And and in their recollection, we get into this same debate that's taking place. They're like, "Well, they're just spending too, you know, the younger generation spending too much on Starbucks. That's a ridiculous number that he came up with." And he also points out in that article that for most baby boomers their inflation experience is 1 to 2% a year if I remember correctly 1 to 3% but the younger generation somewhere between 12 to 14. The inflation is not evenly distributed. So this starts like an hour conversation that's a great debate and you know my father-in-law for example he's like well I was paying $2,000 a month back in the mid1 1990s for my health insurance. And I'm like, "Oh, no, no, no, you weren't." So, but at this point, my brother-in-law gets up. He says, "You're not going to win this argument with them." And I said, "I'm going to win this argument because I'm right." And uh so Grock was awesome because Super Grock, you know, you can go pull up all the the government statistics of what health insurance costs and everything from that point back there. And they just could not see it until we debated for an hour to an hour and 15 minutes about the topic. Can I take them back out of, you know, recency bias? We have a tendency today to to with the revenue that we've had over this period of time to go back and think similar numbers. And so we debated all through that. They were just kind of mindbgggled to the point at the end of the conversation, I go to bed that night and I'm staring at the ceiling going, "How in the world did I get into that debate, you know, on Thanksgiving?" But the next morning at breakfast they came up and they're like, you know, the the more I thought about it, you're right, it is a lot different. And instantly both of them went from having a judgmental bent about the younger generation to really kind of understanding that, you know what, they may not have it as easy as what we did back then. And you know, so look, I'm the hypocrite. I challenged everybody and I broke that. I apologize. The the the fruit of it was a really good debate. you know, to talk about. And it also led into conversations with with the 20 to 26 year olds within our family about, you know, they actually felt heard about how hard things were. So, we had some conversations around it of like, yeah, I probably don't need to be going to Starbucks and spending as much money as I am. And we broke that down per month. You know, one of them was spending like $70, $80. I'm like, look, look, that's $900 to $1,000 a year. And I know that doesn't feel like it makes a big difference, but if you're paying attention to the little things, it adds up, you know, but we added up to about $5,000 a year in savings that that they could make. But that still wasn't enough for them to get in a situation to to make a huge impact, you know, $5,000 a year for a 20% down payment on what's the median home right now is >> 400. Is it 400 and something now? So even a 10% down payment, you're talking 5 years, which is really the only budget they had in there. And I think that's where that demoralization comes from. They recognize even if I do make these sacrifices, I'm 6, seven, eight years where house prices, all they've seen is continue to to to go up because of these government policies. And they just get demoralized to the point it's like, you know what, I might as well have a little bit of instant gratification now. And I think that's the struggle that they're facing to an extent. >> Well, and part of it's just sort of a checking out, which is like if the system you feel is if soon as you detect the card game is rigged against you, the only rational thing to do is to not play the card game. >> Right. Right. Subconsciously, we make that decision without even consciously making it. >> So, if I could again, um, I would direct people to read it. It's good. I I pulled a couple snippets from this. Um, so there's the link for it down there, but you can find it. Michael Green, part one, my life is a lie. It'll Google right up. And he said, um, quote, you know, in in just a snippet, he said, but there was one number I had somehow never interrogated. One number that I had simply accepted the way a child accepts gravity, the poverty line. I don't know why. It seemed apolitical, an actuarial fact calculated by serious people in government offices. a line someone drew decades ago that we used to define who's poor, who's middle class, who deserves help. It was infrastructure was invisible, unquestioned, foundational. And this week, while trying to understand why the middle class feels poorer each year despite healthy GDP growth and low unemployment, I came across sentence a sentence buried in a research paper. The US poverty line is calculated as three times the cost of a minimum food diet in 1963 adjusted for inflation. I read it again. Three times the minimum food budget. I felt sick. That's a really terrible way to define poverty because so much has changed from there to now. So this is the person who came up with that was somebody named Orchansky. Um and he said here, quote, Orchansky's food times 3 formula was crude, but as a crisis threshold, a measure of too little. It roughly corresponded to reality. A family spending one/ird of its income on food would spend the other 2/3 on everything else. And those proportions more or less worked in 1963. Right below that line, you were in genuine crisis. Above it, you had a fighting chance. But everything changed between 63 and 2024. Duh. Housing costs exploded. Health care became the largest household expense for many families. Employer coverage shrank while deductibles grew. Child care became a market and that market became rudinously expensive. College went from affordable to crippling. Transportation costs rose. The city sprawled and public transit withered under government neglect. Boom. I think he [snorts] captured it well there, you know. So, what are we really measuring with poverty? >> It's a good question. I mean, >> I've been wondering, Paul, what do people do when you find out that as a 16-year-old driver in Georgia, your beginning accidentfree, lowest possible auto insurance payment is $500 a month. >> Mhm. >> So, what what what's poverty? Well, you have a car. I guess you're not that poor, but it's like, but if I want to not be poor, I guess I need a car because I'm going to have to get to work because we don't have public transit or whatever the story is. And the minimum entrance fee for that beater cars now are 10k, right? >> $500 a month. So, all right, great. So, now I'm at $16,000 of after tax income just so I can have a car. And that doesn't even include putting gas in it. >> Mhm. And that's liability only, not full coverage. So, that if you do have an accident in that car, it covers the other vehicle. It doesn't cover your car. >> Yeah. >> Right. So that's the lowest level of liability that the insurance company would have to, you know, have to have to cover. >> Full coverage is even worse. Y >> so you know what we're seeing families do is they're having to make a choice to carry catastrophic risk on the other side of that because they're either covering that that they can't afford to cover but then they you know then they're trying to go to their jobs and and their child's not going to have the opportunity to do a lot of afterchool programs especially you know that in a lot of your small schools if you play basketball for example they rotate in a lot of cases one week you've got the girls that practice right after school and the boys practice at, you know, 5:30 or 6:00. How are they going to get back and forth over there and how are they going to be able to go get a job? It's just closing opportunities for those families who who are not earning enough to be able to to meet that minimum requirement. And if they go without the insurance, now you're you're running these greater risks that put you further and further and further behind. like the likelihood of reaching escape velocity for most families right now is is minimal if not near impossible. >> Well, it is. So, I I I what what he did for me in this um was he he just said, "Look, we've been talking about poverty is as if it's this static thing and it was based on food, right?" But he, this is the real math of survival. Another snippet from his article again, Michael Green's article. He says here, quote, "The official poverty line for that family of four in 2024 is 31,200, >> which by the way, that would be my health insurance plus >> maybe a car, nothing else. Like no food, no electricity, none of that." >> He said the median household income is roughly 80,000. So, we've been told implicitly that a family earning 80 grand is doing fine, safely above poverty, solidly middle class, perhaps comfortable. But if Orchansky's crisis threshold were calculated today using her own methodology, that $80,000 family would be living in deep poverty. And this is on average. I'm sure you could do fine in certain rural locations, but 70% of people live in cities or maybe even more. Quote, I wanted to see what would happen if I ignored the official stats and simply calculated the cost of existing. I built a basic needs budget for a family of four. Two earners, two kids, no vacations, no Netflix, no luxury, just participation tickets, as he called them, required to hold a job and raise kids in 2024 using nationally conservative national average data. Child care, if you have to if you have two people earning so you can get to that $80,000 threshold, child care is going to consume 32,000 of that. Housing 23,000. Food 14,000. Transportation 14,000, healthcare 10,000, other essentials 21,000, required net income 118,000. Add federal state FICA taxes of roughly 185 and you required at a gross income of about 136,000. So, wow. >> Wow. You know, and and so this is national conservative national average data. So, people started, oh, they hated this. like you don't have to pay that much for child care and all this and that. But the truth is it's really expensive to live these days. Everybody knows that, right? >> Yeah. >> And that's what that's what the younger generation is saying, hey, they're raising the white flags up. And the extent to which the older generation is just peering down with a little bit of condescension, if not condemnation, like, "Oh, you're just not tough enough, buttercup." >> It's like, you got to understand this is not the world we grew up in. That's not where I started my That's not how I started my life even remotely. >> No, it's not. And that's not even counting any savings in there whatsoever. I mean, and that's for a family of four. And we wonder why families are choosing not to have more kids. You, you know, and then the debt. I mean, yeah, it's great to do away with Netflix, for example. Okay, let's make all of those sacrifices. But how many conversations are you missing in the opportunity you're you're effectively, you know, and now this is just an example. Don't pick me too far apart, but conversations at the workplace. Somebody's talking about Land Man, and I know that's not on Netflix, but somebody's talking about Land Man, and and you have no conversation because you're making that sacrifice just to make ends meet and try to save a little bit. And I was blown away by the vitriol that he received over uh over X and that's out there. people just coming in and just absolutely trying to pick apart all these numbers and they're missing the whole point. The whole point is this starts the conversation. Even if it's off just a little bit one way or another in some of the numbers that we see, doesn't mean he's wrong. He got right to the heart of the manner matter to start a national conversation and family conversations about the reality that our younger generations are facing. >> I mean, it's it's really what it boils down to. >> I think I agree with that. Yeah. A good man leaves an inheritance to his children's children. Okay? So, when I was younger, I thought, "Wow, if I'm a good man, I'll accumulate enough money to where not only can I leave an inheritance to my kids, but it'll be inheritance to my children's children." Well, after 27 years of being in this industry and watching the prosperity gospel take place within the the church, it's all about money, right? It's like if you accumulate enough money, you're a good person because you leave an inheritance to your children's children. But so many things with the Bible, it's we we don't really get the big picture as to what it's trying to tell us. From what I've seen in money, a lot of times somebody that accumulates enough money to to leave a inheritance to their children's children absolutely doesn't build the character and responsibility within those kids that they can take that and utilize it in the manner that needs to be done so that they can carry it down to that other generation. What I'm thinking now, especially more after reading that, it's more than just money. It's a society that lays a foundation to where that our children's children have an opportunity to climb that ladder and maintain the standard of living that we were able to live uh in our passing if they make the right moral and character decisions to be there. Yeah. If they don't have the moral and they can't control their impulses, they can squander that wealth away. But we have to leave a society and an economy that is a foundation that ultimately is a greater inheritance to our grandchildren than any amount of money that we can give them. It has to be, you know, discipline and teaching and morality and character so that they can thrive, have the mental strength to thrive in times of chaos. That's a more important inheritance than just a whole bunch of money that we can throw down at them without all of the other things that they need to thrive in an economy that they can thrive in. This is going to be such a hard territory to navigate because our measuring stick even it financially is this thing called the dollar. And it turns out it's made out of rubber, you know, um it's not a very good measuring stick and it and it may well elasticize and get stretched to breaking point at some point here, you know, and and all of that. But um fundamentally if we look at what what our country really prioritizes. So you know what people say is one thing but what they do is the real deal. So what do we value right now is at the national level right? Um well funding Israel blow beating up on Venezuela for reasons nobody's bothered to explain to me yet. Right. And building these giant data centers which are just like giant toasters only they don't make toast. you know, they just convert precious energy into cat videos and waste heat. You know, it's just and I can't like I I don't know how to sort of put those pieces together and say where where do where does this conversation fit, right? That it's actually a moral imperative of ours to look after not only our our own but but those around us, right? And objectively we're the the whole the arc of this is we're just creating halves and have nots only way more h haveotss than halves. And everybody in power seems to be okay with that. I don't get it. Um seems like there I don't know how you go to your deathbread as a congressman looking back on, you know, having supported special interests your entire career and feeling good about that. Um >> I don't either. >> I think I don't get it. I think the first thing we've got to do is get back to honest money and and and we have to have the rule of law that there's not uh rules for thee but not for me. Okay? It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter where you are in society. If you break the rules, then you should suffer the consequences. I think we should have absolute transparency on any finances that go into um uh corporate, you know, into the politicians and I do believe that they should be banned from insider trading. Okay, if you're gonna be a if you're going to be a public servant because look, >> that's a that's a backhanded way of a bribe. Okay, going, "Hey, look, you pass this law for me. I'm going to let you know what our earnings are going to be." Or you're making decisions in there. Well, for national security reasons, we're going to do this trillion dollar just to pick a number uh contract with this one company. So, you go buy a bunch, right? Just get get it get it out. get all of these conflicts of interest out of the way. And then and then two, we have to stop the monopolies within within our society somehow. I don't know what that looks like. I don't know how to fix it. But I can tell you monopolies are uh the reason why I was taught, you know, in the 80s that monopolies were a bad thing is because they they cannibalize the ability for the middle class to get in there because if one company rules them all. I mean, go back to the Lord of the Rings, one ring to rule them all. We see all of the corruption that comes along with that. Tolken does a great job of laying that out. My wife hates that show, by the way. Um, she doesn't hate it. But I think she's just tired of watching it. But but that that's what we have to get back to. But it takes it takes sacrificing some of the things that we enjoy now so that we can so that we can leave a better future for those. And the reality is if we're prudent about it and we think it through, the sacrifices aren't going to be as hard as what most people think. You just have to we just have to do that. And I don't know how we get there. You know, sometimes the pain of changing, you know, the pain of changing has to be easier than the pain of staying the same. And on the path that we're on, we're leading up to an economic calamity. I don't know when, but we are leading up to an economic calamity. And the rest of the world is positioning themselves right now for the collapse of the dollar. They're doing it methodically. They're continuing to do it. And they don't have a choice because we're not operating by the rule of law. We're acting like the big bully now. M >> and it makes me so angry that that you know um I just wish I knew what to do about it. >> Good faith and trust are are valuable things and we're squandering those whatever exists. I don't know that much exists at this point. And so the international community is like wow we can't trust y'all. H >> right you know and the next thing you know we're going to wake up one day and like why is nobody trading with us? What what happened? You know so um carry this on. There was one more really good thing I wanted to talk about here was the hyonic lies. Hedonic means for the pleasure of and of course they we lie with our official inflation statistics. Hedonics is one of those things, right? And he says here, quote, "Economists will look at my 140,000 figure and they're going to scream about hydonic adjustments. Heck, I'll scream at you about them. There are valid attempts to measure improvement in quality that we honestly value, right? You know, I'll tell you comparing 55 to 24 is unfair because cars today have airbags. Homes have air conditioning. phones are supercomputers. I'll argue because the quality of the good improved, the real price dropped in a sense, the real price. He said, I would be making a category area because we're not calculating the price of luxury. We are calculating the price of participation to function in 1955 society to have a job, call a doctor, be a citizen, you needed a telephone line. That participation ticket cost five bucks a month. Adjusted for inflation, that'd be 58 today. But you cannot run a household in 2024 on a $58 landline to function today to factor authenticate your bank account to answer work emails to check your child's school portal which is digital only now you need a smartphone plan and a home broadband. So the cost of that participation ticket is 200 bucks not 58. So I I think that was a great point that like you can't just sort of say oh you know why don't you just do away with Starbucks and get a landline. you can't, you know, well, you could do away with a Starbucks, but you know, you can't do away with the landline, you know, concept here. Just doesn't work out. And and so he added all that up and said, you know, it it turns out there's this thing called the income cliff. And so he took it from a family of four in New Jersey, but but you know, if you're at $35,000, the family is struggling, he says here, but the state provides a floor for you. They qualify for Medicare. That's free healthcare. You receive SNAP and food stamps. you receive heavy child care subsidies. The deficits are real, but they're capped. And then at $45,000 though, you run into the health care trap. So the family earns a $10,000 raise. Good news. No. At this level, they lose their Medicaid eligibility and suddenly they got an income gain of$10,000, but the expense increase of 10,500. Net result, they're poorer than before. And then at $65,000, there's the child care trap. So, you know, you'd think, wow, I went from 35,000 to 65,000. I'm moving up the ladder. I should be doing better. But in fact, the income in expense increase is $28,000. Net result total collapse. And you know what, Paul, I found in Fagville, Arkansas, they actually calculate this. It's called the cliff effect. And what we're looking at here, this line is the zero mark where you can actually be saving. And this is dollars per hour. So it starts at $10 an hour, then 15, then 20. You go up to $25 an hour. You're working your way up and you're getting better. You are heading towards that zero line of actually having net financial resources defined as income plus benefits minus taxes plus expenses. So you have a certain income, the state or federal government provides benefits, but then of course you're taxed and you have expenses to subtract from those. So that's your net financial resource. So look at this. You're trundling up. You get to 25. Oh no, you move to $27 an hour and you fall down this cliff and you are back just as bad off as you were back here at $10. So that's the cliff. And so guess what happens? People start to approach that cliff and if they can't jump all the way to here, they'll often say, "I can't afford a raise." I mean, how crazy is that? I can't afford a raise. >> Yeah, it's crazy. And and I just calculated at $40 an hour, it looks like you hit that zero line, that's 83,200 a year. >> Yep. And you know, and that and that's heartbreaking. Like that that >> that's that's Fatville, Arkansas. Of course, it'll be a little different somewhere else, but that's Yeah. >> Yeah. I'd love to know what that number is in San Francisco. [laughter] >> Could you just >> Yeah, it maybe. >> Yeah. >> But but that that I mean that's that's the reality of the situation we're in. And I'm just grateful that that he actually wrote that article. And I'm shocked that people missed the big picture because for those of you that are out there, please go find it. Chris, you I you get the heart of just how genuine he is in explaining the mathematics that he puts behind. So, I would encourage everybody to take the time to read it and read it two or three times and it may open up a lot of conversations with people that you have the opportunity to mentor, family members that maybe you can understand what they're struggling with just a little bit more >> and and maybe help to understand the reason why the demoralization causes them to to just make mad emotional decisions in the short run and and live a little bit more for instant gratification instead of where they're going to be in the future. It's just it's a it's they're they're in a vice. They're in a vice. And and look, what do you do? One thing that we should do to solve that is get rid of the cliff. I mean, look, I'm I'm I'm I'm not we've got to fix this in society. So, how do you fix it? You can't rip the band-aid all at once. But, but have a scale to where you slowly lose those so that line's a little straighter up. And then that incentivizes people to work a little bit harder, to maybe be a little more diligent at work. But you know what it's going to do? It's probably going to hit those corporate profits a little bit more because now all of a sudden people are going to demand to move $10 an hour more in their earnings with the experience they have because they're not going to hit that cliff. So So what if corporate profits drop a little bit? We've got to take care of the of our society and it'll reset on the other side of it. It'll go back to that long-term growth, but we got we've got to fix that. And I can't think of anything else outside of having a sliding scale. As you move up, you lose those benefits by percentage until you're completely off of it. So, you're not punished for getting that extra certification or degree and earning a little bit more. >> Mhm. That that would be the way to fix it. But I I agree with you wholeheartedly like we we need to have this conversation. And by the way, um you know, I've I've talked with people who are struggling with this within their own family structure, like they've got a son or daughter who seems checked out. And and here's the advice. So once I learned about the demoralization angle, it doesn't work when somebody has already figured out that the game is rigged and they're often your smartest kids, like some of the most checked out kids, you know, their IQs are above average because they've they've susted it out. You do not get them back into the rigged game by heranging them, you know, saying, "Come on, Bucky. Just just pick yourself up." Like like you can't sort of cajul them back into the game. They've already determined it's a rigged game. You got to look him straight in the eye and say, "You're right. This game is rigged against you and it's not fair and it's pretty bad. So, what are we going to do about that?" And that's it. You don't you don't try and pretend like you can get everything back on track if we could just get everybody motivated properly. We have a problem that's more structural than that. We need better leadership. We need people who understand things at this level, not lining their own pockets, who actually are going to go in, you know, because if if a president comes forward, Paul, and does what you suggested, runs interest rates up to 20%, you know, let the let the implosions happen where they will, they're going to be a one-term president. >> Oh, yeah. >> And they're going to be remembered not very fondly. Herbert Hoover and whoever this person is, you know. Um, so you have to have people of real integrity and character who are willing to do the right thing. And it's the right thing is often the hard thing. It's a hard thing to do. And think about just the the media and their ability because the corporations, look, if if we did it that way, that's going to hurt corporate profits. The reality is it's going to hurt corporate profits. It's going to hit a lot of the Wall Street class, which has the the revenue at this point to run the advertising dollars through the media and and control the bots and everything that's out. There's going to be a whole propaganda war that takes place, but we just need somebody that's willing to communicate. And look, we need to we need to elect people not because they, you know, they they're plastic face and they I I heard something today that says, you know, the people that are the most polished on the outside. It's one of the reasons I, you know, and I've experienced this in my life. The people that are most polished on the outside sometimes are carrying the biggest, darkest secrets. It's the people that are rough around the edges that are that are going to tell you the things that you need to hear that you don't want to hear. That usually when the poo hits the fan, they're the ones that are there for you when the plastic face that you may like a little bit better because they're they they puff you up a lot more uh are not going to be there for you when when it hits the fan. We need to hire politicians on what they what they're they're doing what they say they're going to do, not telling us what we want to hear. Those itching ears are ruining our country. >> Well, I do think there's a huge political movement that that I can feel in my bones, which I think coaleses down to America first, right? Um, it's a multipolar world now. China clearly has a seat at the table. Europe's a basket case at this point in time. So, I don't really know that we need to be, you know, we, the United States, need to be out there spending trillions making sure that the world is safe because we're the policeman. Uh, honestly, I think if we fixed our own crumbling institutions, bridges, and, you know, cultural pillars, I I think I think that would be a big opportunity for somebody who can promise and deliver on, hey, you know what? We're going to get our own house in order before we go out trying to make everybody else's house in order, you know? Uh, which seems like good advice to me. I bet there's a couple phrases about that in the Bible. >> There are, and you said it right. We have to get our house in order first and get get flourishment an economic basis to where our society and our family is flourishing and then we have a responsibility with what we have left over to to to extend that out to other families. I don't think it takes a large percentage of our society to actually stand up and have those hard conversations to turn the tide. We just have to have it around the country and the truth will be loved with people. Truth will stand the test of time and and we've just got to love it and we've got to pursue it and we've got to love our own family first. >> Agreed. That's why it's so important to me Paul that you are helping people navigate this financial environment. It's in economics. So I mean obviously you and I we keep sort of teeing up. There's big structural issues and also regime changes a foot right now and sort of staying in front of that and understanding clearly what's happening. It's tall order. It takes I think a professional somebody like not everybody has the luxury of being able to spend the time I do or you do just staring at all this stuff day after day. Um but >> you know and they shouldn't have to. If you're if you're a nurse, a doctor, you're just retired, you want to enjoy life, be spend time with your family. I mean, it's it's honestly I think staying ahead of this is a full contact sport right now, you know, it >> and so I'm glad you're there doing that. >> Well, it's my honor. My wife gives me a hard time. She's like, "Why do we pay so much for our CPA and all that?" I'm like, "I don't enjoy doing that that side. I enjoy doing the research and working with people, you know, and the CPA keeps me up to date. I study everything from a tax standpoint here, but we're just to the point in in society today where, you know, I tell people I'm here for the people who can't find somebody that they trust to do it or that makes sense, can articulate the strategy that they have or don't en enjoy doing it themselves. And I am fortunate that I get to read and study and seek wisdom for a living. Like that's that's the greatest benefit of the career that that I've been able to participate in. And obviously you love it too cuz I've never seen anybody that can find things like you do y'all. He is amazing at research. I used to have a little bit of pride. Of course I've watched you long enough. I'm like how did he find that you know? >> Yeah. Well, I just had an opportunity to feel good about doing good because um over the holidays I was talking with somebody and they were like asking advice because they knew I was sort of into finance and stuff and they said, "Hey, you know um this person has has got this amazing deal and I listened to the deal and Paul it was the pigs get slaughtered [laughter] >> scam." Absolutely >> 100%. >> Yep. It was it was that one. We've discussed that scam before and I was able to find it right away using my research powers, you know, but it's it's an open thing, right? Secret Service, the FBI, CFTC all have like descriptions of it. Um, but also then to use Grock to sort of summarize how would you have a conversation with somebody given they might be caught up, you know? I was able to put it all together to for them in like 10 minutes like here you go and they're like and we just got the text back a couple days ago. They said thank you. We dodged that bullet. Um, we were able to convince them that that they had been caught up in something like that. But, you know, it's amazing. So, these I guess same thing, right? I've had the luxury of like looking at all the scams out running and I know what they are because I need to know and but other people don't have that time. So, you know, to be able to bring that knowledge and and awareness in a way in a timely fashion that actually has a material outcome that feels good. >> Good for you. A lot of times you don't see the fruit of of of warning people for for years or even decades at times, >> but it is always nice when somebody comes back and says, "Hey, you you you helped in this area, so thank you." just happened to be in the right place at the right time. So with that, hey, thanks for listening everybody. Uh this has been FinanceU and of course if you want to talk with Paul and his amazing team, schedule one of should be three calls if you go through the whole process. The initial call, please go to peakfinancialinvesting.com. Fill out a simple form. Somebody from Paul's team will be in touch with you within 48 business hours and get you on the schedule. And I understand your schedule is of course full uh at this point, but um get that process started sooner than later is my advice. uh because it's a great process. Whether you end up working with Paul and his team or not, you will get a lot out of going through the process because they put time and effort into every individual client contact to make sure that your individual situation is understood and well, you've got your investor plan portfol poster over your head. >> You need everybody needs a plan. >> Yep. >> Yeah. Everybody needs questions and I think keeping them in place. But it it's an honor. we do put a lot of effort into it and and our thesis is look it doesn't matter whether we do business together or not. I mean, if it's appropriate, then then obviously, you know, we'll look at that. But if we can make a difference and and going through that planning process, that's why we're so consistent in doing that throughout history is because we're leaving you wiser, better informed about your risks and better aware of where you are because we're dealing with reality, not some big sales pitch >> such as what happens to me if inflation is 5% or 7%. Or 8% or more. And >> yes, >> as a final comment, Paul, I'm starting to get that itchy feeling again that inflation's about to come back hard. And um as we've discussed that double hump inflation may be a thing. We should talk about that at some future point because it's starting to concern me a little. >> It is. Me too. And especially we didn't we don't have time to talk about it, but looking at yields right now and what they're doing around the world and within the US, that's actually very concerning. We're we're making some strategy changes really quickly because of some of the things we're seeing. Yeah, I hate to drone on and on, but I this was a slide I didn't pull up, but this is Japan's 30-year bond yield just jumped to 3.41%, highest level in history. It's not just how high it is. Um, but Paul, it's it's been screaming higher. I'm worried Japan's about to kick off a massive liquidity crisis. And I think that's going to be a topic for next week because it's it's a pretty big deal. one of one one other big giant we talked about big sort of regime changes that's a regime change right there [laughter] >> rate of change that's not worked its way through the system yet and it it it hasn't at all from rate of change and height it's it's a big deal at some point here >> sooner rather than later all right with that everybody thanks for listening and please any comments or questions uh you can always leave those down in the comment area below we do [music] read them so any future topics you'd like us to talk about. We're open to any suggestions. And with that, Paul, thanks so [music] much for your time today. >> It's my honor, Chris. Have a great week. >> Be well, Grandpa. [laughter]

Redefining Poverty: What $140K Means in Today’s U.S. Economy

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