Silver Short Squeeze Vince Lanci Explains Why It Hasn’t Even Begun

Summary

Silver Squeeze: The guest argues we’re in a slow-motion squeeze with structural deficits, failed “slams,” and rising V-shaped recoveries, pointing to damaged LBMA/LME credibility and potential COMEX delivery stress.
Gold Outlook: Remonetization dynamics and mainstream acceptance (e.g., 60/20/20 portfolios) could drive gold toward $6,500–$12,000 under plausible allocation shifts, with a strong preference for owning physical over paper proxies.
China Demand: China’s physical buying via SGE withdrawals and industrial channels is tightening global supply, with long-side strategies overpowering legacy paper tactics and contributing to precious metals’ resilience.
India Monetization: India enabling loans against household silver formalizes monetization, reduces scrap supply to the market, and supports sustained investment demand amid rising industrial needs.
Tokenized Metals: Expect growth in tokenized gold/silver and stablecoin-linked products (including IRA eligibility), but the guest stresses there is no substitute for directly held, liquid physical bullion.
De-dollarization: BRICS’ “unit” basket (40% gold, 60% fiat) and new payment rails (e.g., mBridge) illustrate credible alternatives to SWIFT, reinforcing a macro bid for gold and silver as collateral.
Europe Fragmentation: Europe is hedging USD exposure, exploring non-SWIFT plumbing with India, and reclaiming national gold control (e.g., Italy), which could escalate euro fragmentation risks and favor precious metals.
Companies & Tickers: Key mentions include JPM (JPM), Morgan Stanley (MS), Goldman Sachs (GS), iShares Silver Trust (SLV), SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), and Costco (COST), mainly as context to market structure and distribution trends.

Transcript

Nothing in this program should be considered investment advice. It is for educational purposes only. Please hit pause and read this disclaimer in full. If what you're saying is true and we have a 5% uh let's say industry outpaces mining demand by 5% for the year 2026, well that tax 40% on the price of silver right off the top. How fast it gets there is a different story. So I I I do believe that's important. Hello everyone and welcome to this very special peak financial podcast. I'm Chris Martinson. We have so much to talk about today. I am joined by the single most dangerous man in precious metals on Twitter. Vince Lansancy, better known as Saurin the K on X. That's at S O R N T H E K. founder of Echo Bay Partners and the guy whose morning notes have been waking up hedge fund managers at 4 am for the last decade or so. And he is the analyst that I turn to first when I want to know anything about silver and gold. We're going to be talking about all of that. Now, this is the analyst who called the 2020 silver squeeze before Wall Street Bets even existed. The guy who blew the lid off the LBMA and BIS running a 500 to1 or whatever paper gold casino while the vaults were quietly emptying. And the same voice that live tracked comics deliveries in 2023 when the banks were praying, nobody would notice the physical was walking out the door. Now, if you want unfiltered truth about why silver is coiling like a spring, in fact, it just jumped over 60 at the time this recording is happening here in the futures market, maybe why the dollar is bleeding credibility in slow motion, why the smartest money in earth is stacking metal faster than at any time since the 70s. Well, you've come to the right place. Vince Lansancy is here. I'm Chris Martinson, host of FinanceU. Let's get into it. Vince, welcome back to the program. >> Thanks for having me back. That was a suspiciously generous intro. Thank you very much. Uh, I appreciate it. I'll accept that. >> All true. All true. So, I I just I mean, let's cut right to the chase. Uh, we're going to be putting this, we're recording this on a Tuesday. It's going out on a Wednesday as soon as we can get it out. But this is what's happening in the futures market. This is live. I'm looking at silver touching 61. It got held under that 60 mark for a while. It jumped. I thought some people were saying the silver squeeze was over. Looks like not. What are you seeing here, Vince? >> Uh, well, we talked beforehand and I I I we have to talk about your observation about the uh about the slams that aren't working. But before we do that, I think the most current event uh is that TD's Dan TD Securities, who is an excellent analyst uh and I've been following him for about 3 years, he has he had his finger on the pulse for silver for a long time. And he was calling almost a year ago, he was saying, "Be careful. you could be in the process of a slow motion silver squeeze to the point where he even used the uh the Twitter hashtags in his in his in his comments. Um and a couple days ago, maybe the fourth, uh he put out a report and it was a good report and it talked about how he thinks the problem is now in platinum. Now, I look at that and I I don't disagree with it. Uh but he made the case with empirical evidence that silver could be done and he showed a chart that showed and I'll give you that chart if you want to include it later on. Um he showed a chart that showed the depletion of silver inventories in London how they had been replenished to the point of mid-occtober which is significant because the it was it was speaking of Vshapes it was a V-shaped bottom and up on in the metal in October and then now it's up and so the implication being that if metal is returning to London then their own physical shortage or shortfall isn't something to worry about. Now, I don't disagree with that. Um, and and certainly the fundamentals do take a little bit longer to reach out into the market. So, the market should keep going up. You know, the market is is the horses on the on the carriage that you're hitting the reins to stop it. It keeps going that the market could experience a little bit of, you know, endgame volatility. But, you know, I thought really hard about this and and while London may have uh let's assume that the metal is actually there, while London may have that medal back and his case is valid empirically, but structurally London is damaged, you know, uh uh London is is damaged to the point where if you can't get the metal and you tell people you have to wait 60 days for it, which I believe they did, I know they said 30, but it's You're running a business and you're out of stock of whatever is hot to sell for Christmas this year. Well, come back in 30 days. Well, in 30 days it'll be too late. They'll get it from someone else and that's what they're going to do if they have to. And they won't come back to you because you've become unreliable. So, what is being packaged as an illi liquidity or a lack of liquidity in London, which is true, and that liquidity may or may not have been solved according to Dan's information, which is good. Um, but the solvency is not there. I don't know that I would do business with that part of my supply chain if I can't rely on it all the time. And I think that even if they do have all the metal and even if they aren't just hoarding it, even if they aren't just leasing it from China, which we'll touch on later, too, I'm sure. U, how do you know that they're that they're not going to hoard it? How do you know that they're going to give it out? How do you know that they're not in trouble behind the scenes on their balance sheet? So, while I think if you look at the charts, if you look at the data, it says the silver squeeze is in the process of ending, and that could be true, but the damage to the brand of the LBMA and its role in the supply chain for precious metals is beyond repair unless they repair it. They have to do something and not just say, "We have the metal back." So that's where I am. >> Okay. Well, um, speaking of that damage to the London market, uh, how about that whole thing with the LME and the nickel trade fiasco that happened, that's pretty damaging. So, so it says that, hey, listen, the London authorities, however they sort of structure themselves over there, I'm sure, just like the US, when they get in trouble, they'll change the rules, right? And when that's true, possession becomes 10/10en of the law. You no longer can trust people to >> honor their agreements, right? So, is that part of this, do you think? >> Yeah. Um, well, I think I think let me just just for a second. One thing that Dan, this is about the LME. One thing that Dan says is that he thinks the silver squeeze is over. And I'm going to say as a student of the markets, that silver squeeze is a nice brand that everyone talks about it, but we have not had a squeeze yet. There has been no squeeze. A squeeze is the LME nickel chart. A squeeze is a 400% increase in 5 minutes. That's a squeeze. A squeeze is a capitulation by the LBMA saying, "Oh let's go out and buy it." That's a squeeze. We haven't had a squeeze. We've had a financialization, a rollover, a kicking of the can, and it's at higher and higher prices, but we've had a kicking of the can. So I would say as a person who've been who's been squeezed uh it's not a squeeze until you have an LME event or or or like you know what we had in the meme stocks in the uh in 22 and 23 with all the all the co money coming in. Um so having said that um the law will change because everyone has cover now the law is more fragile than ever before. So your comment about will they change the rules? Yeah. I mean what did LME do? LME cancelled purchases. L I think it was like 16,000 contracts. Cancelled purchases, open themselves up for a class action lawsuit. I forget who did it, but someone very some, you know, some well-healed investors did it and took that risk because they wanted to survive the next 24 hours. So when you're uh when your neck is in a vice grip and you're trying to survive, you change the rules. Not to be too cynical about it, but the laws are for plebs, meaning it's to keep us at lied. And the powerful people, and I'm not even I'm like I mean this like almost like a person who understands it. the powerful people. When the institution, when the actual sovereignty existence of a nation is is in jeopardy, they should have a right to change the rules. But this isn't a sovereign event. There's a bunch of banks that mismanaged their risk and the LBMA that did not really do what they were supposed to do. But to your point, the LME disaster has been instructive. And I think the first shot across the bell, not to get off topic, but the shirt, the first shot across the bow was we had the spike on Black Friday after Thanksgiving. Black Friday, American Thanksgiving, Black Friday, we had a spike and it was during the time that the CME shut down uh for cooling problems. Uh the cooling, Exactly. But the during that time frame, JP Morgan transferred a large section of its registered, which means available for delivery to uh uh eligible, which means unavailable for delivery. And so in doing that, they were protecting their physical metal. I'm saying that the LBMA problem is radiating out. And if unless you're growing the silver, you're finding the silver as they claim that they are and you're not leasing it, well then why would the comx uh prevent delivery, then why would China keep emptying out their own vaults? So there's your segue. Today's markets are more volatile than ever with ongoing economic and geopolitical [music] uncertainty. Navigating such environments requires thoughtful, adaptive strategies, not a one-sizefits-all approach. At Peak Financial [music] Investing, our registered investment advisory firm connects clients with experienced wealth managers who focus on [music] active portfolio management. These professionals use evidence-based strategies designed to respond to changing conditions, not outdated formulas, but customized approaches grounded in research, discipline, and risk awareness. We believe in open, informed conversations, including discussing tools [music] like precious metals and diversification as part of a broader financial strategy. Every investor's [music] situation is unique, and our adviserss tailor their guidance accordingly. Visit peakfinaniinvesting.com [music] today to schedule your free consultation and explore [music] how proactive management can support your financial goals. I'm Dr. Chris Martinson, proud to work with Peak Financial [music] Investing and my support reflects my professional views. I encourage you to take control of your financial future by making informed decisions. [music] I've had a burning question. Okay, a burning question that I think only you can answer, which is this, which is look, I understand how short interest develops. You know, you got you got people playing both sides of the market. You get market liquidity. So, there's people who are long contracts of oil and short and people are going to take delivery and producers. I get it. Silver's kind of an odd beast. It's a tiny market relative to the overall world structure. It's tiny, right? It's just mousen nuts. How did it get to the point where there is basically a year's worth of mine output short when you go across the comx futures plus the SLV shorts plus right yeah it's a massive number and so that is that a regulatory failure and it just sort of crept there because I don't know why why silver why was silver so specifically targeted for such a massive short interest >> well I think the LBMA problem is a regulatory failure and meaning they failed to police their job which I believe uh honestly was to make sure that the market makers were doing their work. And if they're not doing that, then they have to find out why or get to the bottom of it. But the LBMA isn't an official oversight institution. I understand that. But that's the problem. It's either either it's self-p policed. But to your bigger question about uh how big the short open interest is and has been for decades in silver and the origin of that, I think I have that nailed for you. Um behaviorally, behaviorally, here's how it happens. I mean, let's assume everyone's a good actor here, okay? We're not going to assume bad actors. Uh, silver and gold are both precious metals. We're not going to get into the industrial side of it, but they're margined as precious metals. So, if you buy gold and you sell silver on the comx, uh, which is a big market, you actually can offset some of your risk. And so, it lends itself towards trading as buy one, sell the other. And I'm not saying everyone does that, but I'm saying it happens. Now, the gold market in London, now I'm talking about London, the gold market in London is a physical market and gold is for the most part not consumed. And if you ever need some gold, they rehypothecate. They sell more than they have, but if you ever need some gold, you can go to a central bank pretty readily and get it because they all have some sitting around that they'll lease to you that you can make delivery of and you can rest assured there'll be min production that'll come out and you'll have that and you'll be done and you'll be good, right? The problem is when you when you when you use that model in a commodity or gold like in a metal that has an industrial purpose too. Okay. And at the same time, central banks don't have a store of silver anymore. Remember, they've been selling it for the last 30 years. Then you have no warehouse to pull it from in an emergency. And so when you don't have a warehouse to pull it from in an emergency, you will tend to ethical person will tend to say, "I'll kick the problem down the road." And you kick the problem down the road by selling a future and buying spot. So you're short the market that's going to spot. you're gonna have to make a living and you don't have it. So, you buy and you sell a future. And for years, you do that and what ends up happening is you end up, it's a gambling analogy. You're for the next 10 years, you walk up to a roulette table and you play what's called the uh the martingale trade. And the martingale trade is you bet on black and when you lose and it comes up red, you double. You keep doubling your bet. It happens all the time in futures. It's called double your exposure and roll it back. It'll eventually regress to the mean. And it regressed to the mean many times. They always get their events to the funds puke. They get to unwind their position. That manifested the EFP, which is the London spot versus US futures. And they do this all the time. And it's worked for years. But that's an that's you know that's that started to become a profit center for them as opposed to a riskmanagement tool because they were bigger they were bigger than everyone else in the market and they could do this repeatedly and they borrow from the Fed at 3% or 4% and you and I borrow from our credit cards at 20% or our hedge funds borrow at 20% and we can't carry a position long enough to take delivery. So how does it end? Well, it ends to it ends when the industrial metal keeps pulling it off and you're you have this legacy position and you start doing your martingale thing. You start doubling and rolling, doubling and rolling and it gets much much bigger and it gets even bigger because now they're buying gold and you will say as a as a game player you'll say I'll sell some silver when I buy the gold because I don't want to carry precious metals naked. So they start selling silver to buy gold. So, and that's you saw the gold silver ratio go from, you know, 70 up to 109 at one point for various reasons, but most of it was central banks buy gold, not silver. So, you sell silver, buy gold. That's what I would do. Now, we come to present day. So, you've got industrial offtake that's increasing. You've got Chinese and Indian demand, which says it's for industrial offtake, but I think it's a little bit of a horseshit statement. I think they're getting ready to monetize silver uh for their own public with blockchain. It's not just solar. That's the that's the pretense. But you have all this happening and for some reason or another the bank traders are either smart and praying or dumb and doubling down. And I don't know what the answer to that is, but uh the B team I mean look metals have been sleepy for a couple decades, right? So you put your B team on that desk and your A team, you know, slowly but surely shifts over to uh Asia because that's where the demand is. You want to put your traders at the source demand. And so your London team is like, ah, what do we do here? We don't do anything. We're just watching the shop. So now coming back to the the gambling analogy is London has been at the table the the bullion banks the well financed bullion banks that have to make markets they're the whales at a poker table and all they have to do is martinale meets poker right I hope hope your hopefully your audience understands this um uh the blinds double the bullion bank has the money the blinds triple the bullion bank has the money so after a while people drop out because they don't have the capital. After a while, there's no one left at the table except you and maybe one or two funds. And then another guy sits at the table and he doesn't show what his bankroll is, but he's Chinese. And then another guy sits at the table and he's Indian. And you're like, I'll do my game. And you do your game and they don't blink on the on the on the double. So you say, all right, fine. The odds double, then I'll have to I'll have to uh go all in. on a hand and you go all in and they call it and now you're no longer playing the bluffing game, you're playing the real game. And I think over the last two years, the physical demand coming from Asia, the lack of uh industrial above ground availability because of Asia's demand, they're actually buying it before it hits the market. and a behavioral pattern of assuming silver's like gold for decades has made them sloppy and their asses are getting handed to them now. So that's it. I mean that they they look when you when you when you're the expression I keep saying neck but look when your balls are in a vice grip you do what you have to do to get out of it. And and I think that's why if you have nothing new to do you do what you've been doing. So they're kicking the ball down the road. Now they're kicking the ball down the road paying. So it's it's spots over. So now they have to roll and lose money. Roll and lose. They're locking in small losses and they're waiting for the silver to be made available. And I'm sure it will be. Uh but it doesn't look like China is playing uh well in the sandbox. Neither is India. Well, I haven't looked at it in maybe a week or so, but when I did, there were 152,000 open interest contracts on COMX, which translates to about 760 million ounces. Okay, so somebody's short >> 760 million ounces. So, we come to a day like today and we see that silver's up 239. So, let's say 750. So, I can almost do the math in my head. 1.5. We're closing in on $2 billion is has to be transferred from these accounts to these accounts. That's coming out of somebody's balance sheet, right? Is is there a pain point where these bullion banks so do they get a call from the risk manager and say hey we we got to do something about this or does can they just keep playing? >> Yeah, the that's that's actually the question that I'm asking myself now. And so my answers are can they keep playing? Yes. Okay. So what makes them stop? Obviously because they're playing, right? They're still doing it. Uh because we haven't had an LB moment. So what is it that makes them play? Well, that makes them able to play. Well, if you're if you're if you're let's assuming that it's a bullion bank that has a short that they don't have the metal for that they're worried about someone may want for delivery. All right. So, you either default, which they didn't do, uh or you extend and pretend. And the reason you do that is because you've been told, you've been given assurances that metal's in the pipeline. We're going to get it. You're out there sourcing it. You're looking for it. You're trying to refill that LBMA vault. This way you don't have to worry about all those comx futures anymore. I got the silver. What' you say? Uh uh how how many contracts roughly? >> 152,000. >> All right. So So 150,000 contracts are open. And let's say let's say I mean I'm trying to be fair. Let's say a 100,000 of them are by either their customers or them shorting against physical metal. All right. So, how much do they have here versus how much are they potentially obligated for there? They go, "All right, here's my situation. I could either default or I could go around. I can buy some time with my boss, whoever your boss is, and I can go around and look for silver, which is what happened uh on uh before Black Friday. Uh China uh leased metal to London. They played well. They said, "Well, we're not going to hurt you. It's not our fault that you're doing this." That's that's their way. That's their that's their way. It's like th they're the ones selling you the rope to hang yourself. The whole Marxist capitalist thing. Um and they have a lease and so now they have 30 days, 60 days, 90 days, whatever that time frame is, I don't know, but they have to find the metal. Now we come into how long can they do this? assuming that everyone let's pretend that someone comes to you and say this is exactly what happens someone comes to you on comx and says I want delivery right well as the short in the contract that will be me in this conversation I can either make say okay and accept it or say no and reissue it and reissuing means I take a short I go into the market and I cover it all right so I make someone else have the short to have to make delivery so I think what you do I I think I know what you do is behind the scenes is you say, "Look, I don't have it, but let's not disrupt the market. I'll get it for you in 30 days." Roll it there. And you do a roll deal. You probably give them, you know, some specific edge or courtesy as well. But as long as you can get the long to keep deferring delivery, and I don't think you can, but let's assume that you can, then it comes down to how much money do you have to keep rolling this over and over. to your point and now now we're into the whole what happens if you don't default and what happens if you don't make delivery well you roll well who's your boss then your boss then is the risk manager at the bank right then if it gets big enough and I don't know how big it has to get then you have to start we have to start looking at the repo how much are the banks going through the repo window for do they need to borrow money to carry their positions because they don't mark their positions to market Chris they just they don't go home and say I lost this amount of money today, hun? They just go home and say, "All right, I borrow this amount of money and I don't lose it until I close the position out." So, I'm never closing the position out. So, now we're in a situation where the bank has a line of credit to borrow money to carry their position for how long? I don't know. I don't know. Right. I mean, the thing that could cause silver to be a problem for them would be if another part of their company had a problem. Isn't that what happened with Bear Sterns? Bear Sterns was short silver and their hedge funds went under and the Beare Sterns silver play, you know, became a problem for them. I I don't know. But but the who they answer to now is either the physical side, which they bought time, but they're buying time on maybe to a lesser extent and the financial side. And and I don't like that's a balance sheet question. I don't know how that works. It's scary. >> Yeah. Now, like you I've been I I watch this maybe obsessively, right? It's part of my personality trait. But, >> you know, there were many a night, I can't even tell you how many where I wake up in the middle of the night and I check futures on on silver because I learned >> that the game was when silver started to get a little spicy for their taste. They would wait until 1 in the morning and you'd see these market clearing events, I call them bid crushing, right? They would just crush the bid stack, right? Here's 800 contracts in a single one minute window at 10:01 in the morning. It's not price discovery. That's why I called it manipulation. People like, "Oh, Chris, that's just how markets work." I'm like, "No, no. markets work where legitimate buyers and sellers agree on something. When you see these sudden crushes, that's somebody not engaging what I call price discovery. They're engaging in price setting, which ostensibly is illegal, but apparently if you're big enough, it's not. So, I watch that happen year after year after year. So, we start getting up and we're getting frisky. We're getting up near $50, right? And I start watching these shenanigans and all of a sudden, uh, they're not working anymore. meaning the slams came, but they would stop right away and sometimes go straight back up or level out and climb back up. And so you would watch um I put out a chart recently where there were seven slams, seven hard slams, high volume in a single 26-hour window, and not one of them worked. And that was a change in behavior. >> That's right. Um >> and and and maybe we could connect that to the CME server going down for cooling issues and maybe that was like there's like a lot of smoke in the water in the air around all of this. But did you notice that same change in behavior that the the old like the tried and true? This is wash, rinse, repeat. Here's how we ring the bullion bank cash register that maybe that stopped working. >> Yeah. You know, I I saw that episode that you did and I thought it was a great explanation of how it goes hour by hour. Every day this happens and every day it's getting less effective. It's kind of like taking it's drugs that are no longer working on you. But to to stay to stay within the point that you're making um yes I just want just for one second I want to touch on something you said at the beginning of this of that of that point and that is that you can't prove manipulation and here's why. I mean, you can, but you have to know because when I have a 1,000 lot order and I go to execute it, when there's only 100 contracts I can get, as a person who cares about losing money, I will stop selling. And this is the legal part of it. I will stop selling. But if I want to keep selling or sell 1,00 worst, I have to do it myself. I can't use a broker. I can't use an intermediary. I can't have someone execute the order for me because if I do that, then I have to tell them, I don't want to have a good execution. I want to have a bad execution. So, when those things go down, you're talking about the slams. They're prop desks, their bank desks, their fund desks, their direct spoofing. You can't prove intent if there's no communication. And that's what it's all about. It's the legal division between uh best efforts and worst efforts. And that's the whole point and that's why it's gotten away with. The other thing that you correctly noted is that every market chronologically or or or uh yeah chronologically word uh it has lulls. When everyone goes to lunch, there's less people trading. When this happens, that happens. Now uh if if I'm a level one trader on a desk uh I can see the depth of book and every every big player sees the depth of book. You and I we see you know 10 dead or 10 above right? So I have a thousand lots I want to sell and I wait I wait for the depth for the next how much would I have to drive the market down to get a th000 lots filled. You do that if you're in a panic. I need to get filled. You hit a button. Well, how how many would I have to sell to drive it down $10 when everyone's at lunch or everyone's in the bathroom? Oh, 150 lots. Done. Do it. Bing. And especially if you know that there's some there's some stop orders in there from speculators that are overleveraged and deserve to have their ass handed to them. So, that's what they've done for years now. They everyone does it. Longs do it, too. China's doing it on the long side right now. I I'm almost positive they're doing it on the long side. It's like let's go for the goosees, go for the gan there. But to your point about the changing efficacy of this strategy, yeah, you're 100% right. Uh the silver market is now in I would say I hope right the early stages of what happened to gold two years ago. And here's what I mean. You describe the V-shaped bottom on the hourly. It was an hourly chart, right? For the most part. Yeah. >> 15 minute hour intraday charts, right? You could see it most obviously. Oh, look. Look, 1:00 am, 4:00 am, 8 a.m., 10 a.m. You could see what's happening there. Um, in the past, and by past I mean precoid, the slam would become an L down and sideways. Down and sideways, right? And in gold after the war started, Ukrainian war started, the slam went from being an L, right? Then why I had to digest it and think of what's going to do, then it would go back up. The slam went to an L to a J. All right. So, it was like it's like an alphabet game. It went to a J. And the J's were basically buyers becoming a little bit less patient. And the buyers were the Russians, uh, uh, the Chinese and probably bullion banks and and the American macro discretionary funds running all of them. So, it goes from an L to I think I want it now to I think I want it sooner to I think and then and then eventually I think I want it immediately. and it becomes a V and those were the intraday charts right the intraday charts showed that V and then after a couple days you started see couple of months you started seeing it on the daily charts and it wouldn't be necessarily be a V it would be a it would be a day where you have a huge low and on a candlestick chart we have a long wick and as a person who's been scarred by the selling I'm in I'm in therapy still u as a person who's been scarred by it You look at that wick and you say, >> "Oh, that's crazy. We have to go back down there again." And so you don't get long. Maybe you cover your shorts, but you don't get long. And so then it starts to go up a little bit. You say, "Holy shit." And eventually here we are in 2025 and gold is a real market. So I would hold out to you based on your observations and your analysis that silver is in the one hourly version of the V-shaped, right? And when we start to see that on the dailies, well then look out. You got some serious troubles here. And I think we're in the process of moving towards that. So as a trader, I agree with you. >> Yeah. Well, thanks for that confirmation. It's very important. But I I we can see it. So you have the same scar as I do, which is for whatever reason 8:00 is the most fundamentally bad hour for silver. [laughter] >> Right. Right. Right. >> Right. It just gets sold at 8:00 right on the dot because that's when the New York uh trading opens, right? Um and then here at 10, 10 also turns out to be a pretty bad hour. My experience has been that between 8 and 10 very bad for silver's price unless you like it to go down. But that's when the US markets are operating and then it closes and all night long it it climbs and climbs and then London opens up or something. You can see one of these patented you know o dark 30 slamas here. >> But when you see London open up and jump that's why you you get into these these trouble zones here. So this is this is such a colossal change in behavior right here. Um, what do you think the chances are that that we actually get to the the LM nickel moment? Meaning they literally don't have what it takes to uh deliver and instead of risking default, what would they do? Would they close the markets? Would they force a hunt style sell only moment? Would >> it's kind of a menu. It's a menu. Right. Right. No. So, uh, well, the first thing you would do is you'd stop delivering to anyone who wants it on the comx. That's starting to happen. The next thing you do is you'd probably stop >> that's starting to happen. >> Well, yeah. I mean, not Okay, that's thing. Not literally happened. So, for example, during the COMX shutdown, during the CME shutdown, JP Morgan took like 13 million ounces from available for delivery and made it unavailable. Now, they can always just put it back, okay? But they did it during the shutdown. That's not when you worry about that sort of thing unless you're already worried about it and you're looking for cover. Now, I'm not accusing them of anything. They can do whatever they want whenever they want. But remember those conversations I was saying they have. It's very, and I say this backing the ComX, not being disrespectful for a change. If you suspect a rogue player is going to take delivery of contracts, they're spoofing it on the settlement side as opposed to spoofing selling. You have the right to go to the exchange and say, "You know what? This seems wrong. Look into it." And they could say, "Well, are you manipulating the market when you put all the money up uh to buy the silver?" No, you're not. That's you're taking delivery. how can you be but when you say I want to do it for 500 contracts in five minutes you kind of are saying I don't think you could do it like it's kind of like a it's kind of a bet and and I think you know when you look at the the structure of of how the COMX is registered versus eligible which means basically available versus unavailable it's kind of like their final safeguard now did the COMX say uh we're going to refuse delivery no I don't want to give that impression but a bank took discret ression and say we're not going to make delivery for whatever reason. I don't care what the reason is. You just don't do that while it's on new highs unless you want to keep it. You could do that switch when it's on new lows. You could do that switch in the middle of the day, but you don't do it on new highs with China running the market higher during your time frame. I mean, it was really bad. So, did they literally stop delivery? No. But I think the comx has a right to I hope they do to look at their exchange and say well London has fallen to use the expression and we have to make sure that as a spot market which is SLV and COMX combined we hold the fort down and if there's a rogue actor out there maybe a uh a macro discretionary fund out of China the Chinese hunt brother as as he has been referring to uh then maybe you have a right to slow things down. But now to answer your question, so you start doing what we just saw. Then you start accusing another country of acting poorly in the markets. Then maybe you start restricting some people from acting in the markets. And then you have a full-blown commodity exchange war, SGE versus Cobex. And that could be really big. But down the road, escalating your point. Uh, do we sever delivery? You know, um, this might be a little aggressive to say, but I've been thinking about this a lot. Uh, I've been thinking about this for a couple years now. With London in with London in crisis, I still think it's a crisis, a rolling crisis. With London in crisis and ETF demand soaking up all the extra silver and gold, but mostly silver now in the US, the SLV fund, I know you can't get your silver. I know it's not real, is real. It's just not real for us. And that metal is going into that vault. JP Morgan's control that vault. A couple maybe one other person is. I'm not sure if they still are, but that is becoming the spot market. So to answer your question directly, what happens first? Well, what happens first is the ComX suspends delivery, not SLV, because SLV is a spot market in the US and you cannot damage the whole US capital markets. SLV is an equity. It's an ETF. It's okay for COMX to say, "Well, we're an international marketplace. We don't trust the Chinese guy over there, the Indian guy over there. So, we're gonna put everyone in timeout for 48 hours. Can't do that in SLV. So, I think as it gets worse, you'll start to see stress in the com if it gets worse. But I think we'll see a bigger problem on on London first. If I'm running the comx, I'll just blame London if it happens. That's what I'll do. >> No. No. But could it get bad enough that we would see sort of a Roosevelt style it's illegal for the little people to own? Could Could they actually nationalize it? Could you see it getting that bad? >> We know it's a strategic mineral now, right? >> Yeah. Not silver. You You can't That's That's a That's That's a That's a That's a good question. Uh and and it hasn't happened in the past. And I'll tell you why. Well, I I'll tell you why. I think it can never happen in the future. You can't make an industrial metal illegal to. Period. End of story. That's it. Now, can you do things to oh, this industry can have it and that industry can't? Sure, you can. But when you do that, um, uh, you hurt your own business. And it's kind of like, I mean, I'm I'm a I'm I'm long silver, right? And and I'm a silver fan and I my first market that I traded was silver, so I probably know it more than most and uh more than I care to remember. But look, if you were to make silver purely monetary, if central banks started to buy it, just assume that it becomes purely monetary, you price out industry. Okay? If you make silver illegal to own here, which you could do at the investment level, you price out your own supply. We're not going to I'm not going to give my silver if they say silver's illegal to own. And it's not just five people with silver. It's every American has silver. Especially especially, and here's here's the key. In an international market, if you made your silver illegal to own in the US, you know where it would go? It would all go to India. Why? Not just because they want the silver. Because in India, they just changed the law. In India, they just changed the law where if you have wealth in silver, a necklace or coins, you can actually go to the bank and use it as collateral for loans. Now they're monetizing silver in India. If you restrict ownership of silver here, all that silver is going to leave the country. It's going to leave the country and you lose it. I think what we need to do and this is this is not aggressive when you see what's going on. I think if we if we want to keep silverware in the country, we want to do the opposite of making it illegal. would want to remove capital gains tax on it because there are >> there are millions and million there's about a half a year's production of silver uh I mean I've done the actual math sitting around that will be pulled out if we were to remove capital g you got your capital g your long-term capital gains right which is uh 28% and then you've got nit gain which is a special tax so tax increases up to about 32% if you've owned silver for less than a taxes are 37% becomes a regular trade. So if the US were to remove capital gains tax on silver and gold for a year, I mean like I like I'm advocating for this. If they were to do that, you would have a windfall of metal come available that from people that have owned it forever. You'd secure that industrial supply that you want. It's the same effective thing as confiscating it, but people will doing it willingly. If you use a carrot in the US, you'll get more than a stick. And I think at some point we do that. I don't know when, but >> my point is confiscation is just not going to happen. It's not going to happen. You can't do that with silver. You'll kill the world. You kill the world. [music] >> Hey folks, Chris Martinson here. Look, we've all been there, watching our hard-earned dollars get chewed up by this endless [music] inflation machine while the folks in Washington and the big banks continue to play games with our money like it's monopoly cash [music] or something. It's not right. I know it and you know it. The trust in the system, it's eroding faster than a sand castle at high tide, [music] especially with all the geopolitical storms brewing. And I've been saying it for years, you got to protect yourself, [music] your family from all this nonsense. That's why I personally turn to gold and silver. 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So the question is well what happens if next year that becomes 104%. Right. Well that has to come out of SLV. It has to come out of my coin collection your your bars. It has to come from somewhere. Right. >> Right. >> How if that happens um you know what do you think occurs? But I guess the subst the followup question how high could silver go before you start actually biting into that industrial demand. >> Okay. So I don't I don't generally do price targets but I will that I can't quantify fundamental but I will give you one. Uh silver being made a critical mineral um uh puts it on par with lithium and uranium and within five years it's going to trade $144. Now I said that when silver was trading $40. So here we are and it could happen tomorrow. I mean, I'm not saying it will, but point is $144 is what silver is worth 5 years from now. Where it's trading, I don't know, but that's where it is. Now, in terms of price, well, if you get to $144, we'll probably get to $244 at least for a minute. So, uh, but to cut back to the to the to the, uh, substance of your of your question, if industrial demand takes off more demand than mining is creating and you're already running out of above ground supply that's available, uh, and investment demand stays at its current pace or even a little bit less, uh, you're going to have uh you're going to have a whatever percent I'll give you a number for a rule of thumb. It's a candle in the darkness. Uh Victor Neerhoffer, he was a trader for Soros and I met him and I had dinner with him one time and he's just out there in terms of his knowledge. like we were talking about silver at this dinner in like 200 uh one I think. Uh and he said to me I go how much we were talking about how much of a shortfall does there have to be for so and what would the market do and he said to me he said this is how what a student that you and I are students of silver. All right. Well he traded silver. He was a student of everything. And he said well back in Victorian times and I'm like what? Right. I'm I'm sitting here trying to be respectful at the table going, "Okay, back in Victoria Times," he said, "If you had a 5% crop shortfall, it translated into a uh 20% increase in price," he said. But that was with this. I mean, this is him talking that was with only two goetweens intermediate. the guy who plants it, the guy who grows it, and the guy who sells it. He goes, "But in silver," he estimated that and other other markets that because there's so many intermediaries, there's so much leverage that he goes a 5% shortfall in silver once the above ground uh demand is satisfied, I mean supply is satisfied equals a 200% increase in price. That's his that was his math. So if you have a 5% pretend there's no more silver available and no one wants to sell, that's not true. Well, then prices go up 200% on a 5% shortfall in supply. That's that was his math back then. Now, we know what's going to happen. It'll go up to I'll make a number $100 and then scrap will come out. It's out there. There's plenty of scrap out out there that's waiting for it. And unless the Fed, unless the US removes taxes for people that have owned silver for years, that scrap's not going to come out. Um, and we'll have to do real price discovery at $100. So, a 5% shortfall of silver production should equal let's let's let's let's discount the 200%. I would say it's a 40% increase. So, if we have a if if if what you're saying is true and we have a 5% uh let's say industry outpaces mining demand by 5% for the year 2026, well, that tax 40% on the price of silver right off the top. How fast it gets there is a different story. So I I I do believe that's important. >> I really like your idea of removing the capital gains because I have a price in my head I would sell silver at. This isn't the price, but I can do the math in my head. So let's say it's at 75 >> and the government says, "Hey, one month holiday, no taxes, right?" Well, that's as if it had gone to $100 equivalent, right? Because I'm getting that 32% back, right? Now I have a different decision. Would I sell at 100? Right? You know, and obviously you're going to chase some out of out of the shadows if that happens. that you clearly will. >> Yeah. I I I Yeah. And that's exactly how to take that, you know. Um and I'm not reinventing the wheel here. I want you to know that this is based on what just happened in Italy. In Italy, the uh Italy said to its people, you guys have a lot of gold that's not in the market, and that money is not circulating. We would like to get that gold back to us or at least know where it is. You know, gold's like number three, right? Number three market there, right? Maybe the Vatican's bigger, but so this is like this is a proposal that they're considering right now. Italy is going to say to its people allegedly, uh, but it's in the news. It's been reported. They're going to say, "If you declare how much gold you have now and show us what you have, we will only charge you 12.5% tax on it and you won't have to be charged tax on it again. If you don't let us if you don't do this now, we're going to two to five years from now attach a 26% tax on it." So what Italy's doing is they're going the carrot, tell us what you got and we'll only take a 12% haircut. The stick five years from now we might have Q-IPS on gold and we'll close the black market. You know, whatever. The point is they're trying to flush out the ownership. And you should do that in the US. We should be more libertarian in this way. We should just say, you know what, to your point, a month, make it make it a year. I mean I only so is if it's a month the refiners won't be able to handle we have no industry you know over the next year um uh if you uh you can there's no capital gains tax on sales of disclosed silver and gold to these official places and make it be mints and refiners and even you know whatever the point is you're you're confiscating it by rewarding people and you're going to flush out look who would in their right mind buy silver with a 30% cap gains tax on the back end. No one. What I'm getting at is but yet there's millions and millions and millions of ounces that are held as investment and that money is never coming out. You know why? Because they don't need it. Give them an incentive to bring it out. You know, rich people with gold, if you remove capital gains tax, I I did an estimation. If you removed capital gains tax on gold, you would free up 40 million ounces of gold, which is a lot. If you freed up capital gains tax on silver, because it is the working man's gold, people have been sucking it for a long time and they do have to pay their bills. You'd free up 600 million ounces. And that's that's that's my baseline. So, it's bigger than that. And if you did that and then to your point a year later you say, "Okay, no sales tax on silver." Now, most states have have abided by that, but if the federal Congress said that there shall be no sales tax on silver or gold, you encourage people to buy it again and then you put your capital gains tax back on and it never leaves the country because we need to ring fence our wealth. And so if you outlaw if you outlaw silver in the US or gold then that metal is going to leave the country. You want to allow people to fork it over. So I I agree with your your premise and that's and that and Italy Italy's doing that. Let's just do it the way we would do it. Take all the >> Yeah. Now I like that idea. Now um can we turn now to China because my sense is that pricing power used to be contained entirely within US and London. Right. Paper and then and then the delivery spot. Right. Okay. Fine. and they had that game locked up forever and ever. Obviously, Shanghai comes roaring in. They've made some really interesting moves as I understand in terms of tightening some things up so all the gold kind of has to come through SGE unless you want to black market it or something, right? So, they can get get their arms around it. I get that. >> But I see all these official statistics come out of China and you know, I got a little burned on some of the COVID stuff like like I I I think what comes out of China is what they want me to see, right? I see these amazing things that Eric puts up of the trolley carts with the 15 kilo 49 bars, right? You know, oh, here's another happy housewife with a ton, you know. So, I watch all these videos come out. What's the truth there? Like like what what do you think's going on in China right now? >> I I I like the the the uh the uh the Eric videos. They're like Tik Tok silver. And and I say that because I know look, you can't unless it's AI, you can't make up the silver bars. They're there and they're being and they're doing that. And so there's there's a lot of validity to it, but the people that are doing it are too handsome. He had some more older people doing it. I'd say I I will be more trusting. He needs some uglier people doing it. There's just too many cute girls doing that. Um, but no, I I I do believe the metal has been leaving the SGE for real. Let's go to the reality of it. Eric's not being dishonest. The reality of it is after London uh leased metal, the metal started leaving the Shanghai vaults. Now uh legitimately speaking, China I mean there's so much I could say about this. Let me just try to stay on point. Anyone who remains in China industrially can take their silver out of the vault. And they've done that. The difference between a Chinese company speaking as an American difference between a Chinese company American company is a Chinese company is directly controlled by the state. So they're moving it from one place to the other. You could make the case the the this is why I say there is a spoofing case to be made. You can't spoof futures lower. I'm sorry. You can't spoof futures higher. You have to take physical to spoof the market higher. And can you call it manipulation if they're actually buying it? And the answer is no. But let's be clear about something. We're now in an environment where industrial use may be growing, but we're not buying anything from China. They're not selling a lot of solar panels. Why do their industrial companies all of a sudden want more silver to be pulled out? And the answer is because their industrial companies are either working with the uh uh with the government uh in a in a in a in a way to give the impression that there's less solar involved which is possible or and this is why I think it's not These companies that are industrial they also have investment arms. They're very big companies. They're fabricators. They have they sell coins. Well, China and India for different from different angles are monetizing silver now. So when a company like Cheng, which is the one that people refer to the most, takes a lot of silver out, well, they put it in their own vault. Well, their own vault is still owned by the government. It's just not the SGE vault. Now, you have this situation. You have the silver being pulled out. And you could say to yourself, or I say to myself, either they're spoofing the market, which is possible, or they have other plans. And then you look at India which is not China and you say what is what is India doing? Well India is giving people loans on their silver. Okay. Uh then you look at uh Dubai and you look at uh the Saudis and you see that there are tokenized silver products being made up. They're getting ready to launch retail grassroots silver buying. So maybe Chang is not taking it out to make a new solar panel. maybe they're taking out to make a new tokenized silver product. And I say that's important. Another example would be uh Indonesia is now restricting sales of its gold uh without paying a higher export tariff. So that's a big deal. You know who operates in Indonesia? Um uh >> is it Barrack? >> A huge who? >> Bareric. >> No, no. Uh Freeport >> Freeport. Okay. >> A Freeport Mr. I think I think they operate there and and that means they can't export without paying a higher tax. It's the door bars, the mixed bars. They do have silver and gold that they do. And so little by little supply is being restricted for all these various reasons that are uh probably semi-honest and uh the west is not getting the picture. So, uh, I I believe that while you can't trust the daytoday, speaking as as a trader to traders, I I you don't talk like you're a you don't act like you're a trader, but you think like what the day-to-day data on Shanghai doesn't impress me because I've seen it before. The month-to-month trend on Shanghai does. They're setting the table. And just for your for your viewers, um, uh, in 1997 when Warren Buffett was buying, in 1994 when George Soros was buying, uh, their order was handled by a firm called Philip Brothers. And Philip Brothers would do exactly that. Once they bought, they would take delivery even though they weren't taking delivery, and they would see what the market did. If the market jumped, they would keep doing if it did, they put the metal back. But they weren't really taking delivery. They were just throwing the sheet over is an expression that I was taught. Now, I do believe that in Shanghai, they're actually taking delivery. They're moving it into the vault probably next door, which is the reverse of what the US has been doing for decades. Oh, we have we have gold at JP Morgan or we have gold at the Fed, now it's a JP Morgan, now it's at the Fed. I mean, there's a there are two vaults underneath the World Trade Center. What used to be the World Trade Center with a corridor connected. So, both rooms are the same room, however you look at it. And so, you're you're right to be skeptical. Long story short, you're right to be skeptical of day-to-day data. Uh but you should be more trusting of month-to-month data. And here's why. Even if they are bluffing, they're paying for the metal. They're buying the metal. So, are you bluffing? If you're buying the metal, are you acting as a bad actor trying to take delivery on Cobs when everyone's shut down? Yeah, you are. But you're also saying you said that you'd make delivery. How come you're not doing it? I think they're testing us and I think it's real. >> Markets [music] are facing heightened uncertainty and thoughtful portfolio management has never been more important. If your current strategy [music] relies solely on passive investing or diversification without active oversight, it may be time to consider a different approach. [music] At Peak Financial Investing, we connect you with experienced wealth managers who actively manage portfolios using [music] disciplined, research-driven strategies designed to adapt to evolving market conditions. [music] Our focus is on helping clients navigate volatility with clarity and confidence. While no investment strategy [music] can guarantee results or eliminate risk, we believe that preparation and active management can make a meaningful [music] difference over time. Visit peakfinancialinvesting.com to schedule a complimentary consultation [music] and explore whether our approach aligns with your goals. I'm Dr. Chris Martinson and I am proud to [music] support Peak Financial Investing. This is not a guarantee of future performance, but a call to take your financial planning seriously. Again, that's peak financialvesting.com. Investing, of course, [music] involves risk, including the potential loss of principle. Past performance is not indicative of future results. [music] Please consult with a qualified adviser before making investment decisions. You know, sometimes when we get to these change in trends like this, it's the anecdotes that get me right. It's the shoe shine boy telling you about stocks. It's the it's the stripper telling you about the houses, you know, in in the big short or whatever. So, I was watching this Wall Street Journal very video, very nicely done, 7-inute video, and they went to ask the question, well, why is so much gold going to Singapore? And they talked to this owner of a of a vault or operator of a vault. Not a vault. This thing was a warehouse. >> Yep. >> Vince, I mean, and most of the shelves were empty, but they said, "Yeah, we have the capability. We can store 10,000 tons of silver here, which is kind of what where we're targeting and some gold." Like 10,000 tons. Well, that's basically 30 40% of world mine output for for one facility, >> right? >> I don't know how many facilities are in Singapore. I don't know how many are in the UAE or in Dubai or in Riad or in Moscow, but I'm getting the vibe that like by the time people are investing in a a facility like this, an ultra seccure facility that could itself store a significant percentage of world mine output for for silver. We're at a part of the story now where we could go from, hey, there's as much as you want at a certain price to oh no, there's none available for you plebs. um very quickly if the vibe gets out there in what we'll call the billionaire class. >> Uh I think well your comment about there's none available. I think that's what's going to happen to gold eventually. So it's going to get to such a high price it won't be made illegal. You just the plebs won't be able to own it and we'll become plebs in that respect. And so that'll just drive silver higher because more investment demand will go into silver and you'll have a you'll have a price spiral higher. Uh, so I I do think that that's going to happen one day with gold. I don't know when it is, but I do think it'll happen. It it's it's probably a gradual pricing out of buyers at the margin. You know, I have $5,000 to spend and I'm going to buy my nephew a necklace. Well, now I have to have $10,000 and I don't have that. My income is not outpacing the price of gold, just like my income was not outpacing the the price of houses. So, the asset becomes unobtainable. Now, your comment about Singapore, I'll throw a little something on this uh that'll make people know how right you are. I mean I know I know that you're right but in 2014 when the demand for gold for me became noticeable going to Asia I started looking at the whole industry because once upon a time I was told by an exchange analyst that uh in physical commodities the exchange of the exchange that resides in the region of demand does the most business eventually. And to break it down, first demand goes to China. I want the gold. Right? And so it gets pulled from the west. Whether it's right or wrong, they want it. Right? Now I'm a person who works at a company that sell gold. What am I going to do? I'm going to move an office. I'm going to put an office there. You know, Kiko did that at one time. I'm going to put an office in Asia because that's where the demand is. Your salesman need to be where the demand is. Now, couple years later, 2014, wealthy firms and Chinese individuals say, "I don't want my gold stored in London anymore." This actually happened in 2014. You can look it up, 2013, 2014. JP Morgan, Deutsche Bank, uh, and two other bullion banks opened vaults there. They didn't have vaults in Singapore before. They opened vaults in Singapore. Why? Because their customers said, "I want my gold delivered there. I want it there." And so the demand goes there, the metal goes there, the supply goes there, the refineries are opening up there. The industry moves there. Long. If I'm Exon and I pull oil out of the ground and I'm constantly sending gasoline or oil to uh to uh gasoline, let's say this finished product over to uh to Asia, well, screw that. I'm gonna open up a refinery in Asia and I'm going to send the oil to my own refinery and capture the value part of the curve, the value part of the price chain. And that's what you do. You open up the refinery where the demand is. The refineries are in Asia, the vaults are in Asia. And the fact that you're telling I was not aware of this new vault. The fact that there's this massive vault for silver now. Well, it's a build it and they will come. They know that they you don't build a vault. You don't you're not you're not building a tent for a concert. You're building a vault and you're going to use it for something and it's going to be used for metal and there's probably going to be tokenized silver and tokenized gold and monetary gold. You you're talking about all the all the vaults. You know, China has referring to gold here. China has encouraged the other nations, other bricks nations to um to uh open their own vaults or or uh accommodate their own vaults for international gold because the bricks are going to have their collateral stored locally. So if you are an African nation and you have a vault and you pull gold out of the ground, you put it into your vault, China's going to lend you yuan for it. So those vaults are going to be part of a monetary network which is going to put gold on a par with the US dollar for collateral. Now at the pleb level that'll be silver. You can take your silver bracelet and go right into uh uh into the bank of India uh Royal Bank of India and say I I would like some rupees for that sir and they'll do that for you now. So they're not opening the vaults to make them skateboard parks. They know what they're doing and this is a 20-year plan. It's going to happen. Well, it it is happening and and so um I wonder does any of this connect into this thing that the bricks put together called the unit which I've heard a little bit about to say that it's actually not just a thought process anymore but they they had tested out some component of the message rail last year but I hear that it's actually trundling forward and obviously we had the February 2022 event which Europe is now carrying on the tradition of hey we're going to see sovereign assets which of course sends a bad kind of a bad mojo Joe vibe in the international capital storage, you know, space. So, it sounds like the bricks said enough of that. We're going to move ahead. I heard a lot of people poo poo it and say, "Oh, they can't. They won't. It'll take too long." Where are we on that story? >> All right. Well, um the the the may you're talking about the unit or they call it unit. That's what say the but I'm going to say the it just sounds too weird for me. Um no, but that's I'm I'm telling you like it's like it's called unit. It's like a currency. All right. So, so the bricks want to get off the dollar and they want to get off the swift system. They want to get off the dollar and the dollar plumbing. They need to have build their own plumbing. Supply chains, which is what we're rebuilding to make sure we get our demand, which we're struggling with right now to get our supply, uh, are mirrored by payment chains. And Swift is your payment chain. Every time something is handed off, money changes hands. And at every level, it's the US dollar and swift. The US dollar and swift. They don't want to be involved in that anymore because of the war. Um and now they need to build their own pipeline and their pipeline will be there's many names for it. Uh there's going to be more than one pipeline but this for for even though it's not the correct term anymore uh it's known as embbridge which is the plumbing that they were testing for sovereign international dealings. Now that's not retail but it's the point is we can use this plumbing to settle our debts in gold and you need to have something in the plumbing. You need to have a unit in the plumbing. So the unit is a basket designed of a mix of 40% gold which is huge and 60% fiat. This the fiat is um uh 12 time 5 is 60 right? It's 12% from each bricks country. So B R I Cs. So 12% from all the five countries and that makes up the unit. The unit is one. Now uh the unit is the if you want to look at from a like a circulatory system, the unit is the blood vessel with the nutrients and the plumbing is Mbridge or bricks pay or bricks clear. So what is the unit is it is a basket just like an SDR is a basket for the IMF. And the reason it's poo pooed with merit is because the people involved in it, again through a western eye, the people involved in it, at least one of the people involved involved in it is sanctioned, is uh uh a bad player, is a crypto scammer. These are all things I've heard before and they're all true. Okay. Um, but that's a person when you we actually I mean look this has been like an ongoing thread for us and if I don't mind saying that um if you don't mind I'd like to say that uh we wrote about the unit in the west before anyone myself uh Chris Marcus and um and Matt Riley uh I wrote a very long piece on it and we all collaborated together on it and that's on the site I may have to unlock I think I put it on Zero Edge as But the the point is the unit which was a fantasy works and so it exists. But how does it work? Well, it doesn't have to work. It's a basket. And the the reason it has to work is because well, it's a basket. 12% of everyone else and 40% gold in the basket. What is the basket? It's a token. It's a blockchain token. Does it get broken down? No. It's a different kind of product. It's not a stable coin. It's not a CBDC. It's very close to for your wonky guey friends. It's very close to the Bangor product uh which Ke talked about in 1944. They're not reinventing the wheel. It's the real deal. Now, in terms of the uh I don't want to sound defensive, but this works. Now, to to push back on the people that are negative on it, I'm with you. The people involved are probably some some scummy people involved in there. But if you drill down a little bit and you pick up the July 2025 report from JP Morgan, which goes into the bricks progress on their whole dedization, the unit gets three paragraphs and they say, I'm paraphrasing, by and far, the unit is the most wellthoughtout, more well more organized idea for ddollizing than the bricks have anywhere else. I read that and I went, "So JP Morgan," which is, you know, it's a bank, so maybe maybe they're maybe they're not legitimate. Who knows these days? But so I I started looking into it and I went to the site and they the site uh started to publish some some real information. And then I drilled down into who's behind it. And this is why I'm going to tell you it's even more legitimate than people understand. The site is uh the unit was developed using uh at least right now, they could change it, Cardano. if you're looking for blockchain. Um, and it's not a state organization. It's an independent company. So, it's a private company and it could be a load of No, it's not a load of The principle works. The people that developed the unit, individual shady characters aside, are backed by an organization uh I forget the initials for it because it's like another language I rer that organization is this a Soviet era economics model that planned economic moves for them. Now all the member of it all the members of all the Soviet countries since the Soviet Union collapsed it still exists and there are five countries in it that make it up. So, five countries that are in the bricks, not the same five, I'll stay there in a second, are behind the architecture for the unit that's being extolled as the best plan by JP Morgan. So, don't tell me it's horseshit. I mean, some of the people are horshit, but bad people do good things sometimes. Anyway, so the five countries now I'm watching the five countries. They are Russia, you're not surprised. They are uh Mongolia, that's not China. Well, actually it is China. China. If China ever wants the natural resources of Mongolia after knock on the door, it's China for natural resource purposes. Uh Bulgaria, which is news to me, right? I I made that face, too. Like Bulgaria. And I go, well, Bulgaria is kind of like, aren't they kind of like, you know, western, you know? Well, maybe they are. But then you see Hungary. Hungary is the other one. >> Hungary. I was like, oh, Hungary, now it makes sense. So these five countries are behind the fifth one is Cuba which I'm like oh okay that's weird but they're communist countries or they're not communist anymore they're capitalist uh at least for the well not not Cuba but they are market oriented and they're very materialistic in the sense that you have to have physical or collateral and this unit which was developed conceptually in 1944 by KE that lost to the IM MF which was created to bolster the dollar as the global reserve currency is now at the forefront. Will it be called the unit? I don't give a what it's called. I'm just telling you it's going to happen. So there it's live. The the blood vessel is live. They're updating it daily. It's worth what it's worth and it's ready to go into several different types of plumbings. It can even go in. There's a system in the in the FX community called uh CLS. I think it's called CL and that's a it's a system to ensure that there's no fraud and on the FX market let's say we do euros to dollars well that that instantly clears well it fits with that you can use it with that you can use it all this existing plumbing out there except for swift because swift doesn't have uh dollarbased system doesn't have collateral attached to it so uh the unit is uh conceptually seld uh being tested right now. They made a hundred of them and they're using it's like a beta test and they're they're allegedly they promise to have a thousand or so minted next year. And I think 2026 is the year of some big big news. And just as an aside, that's why I hear us talking so much more about stable coins because we need to have our own counter to it. So the unit's real. The it's it's not rocket science. It's a stable coin basically. Well, I I could also understand maybe more broadly why those countries you mentioned in particular are a little bit fed up with what we'll call the West, although Western civilizations kind of fraying at the edges for a lot of different reasons. Um, but did you see this? Speaking of like making funny faces, this one really caught me. I was not prepared for this. And so, this comes to us via um Daily Express US. Did you see this headline? Um, Trump dealt major blow as Europe threatens nuclear option if Ukraine deal goes left. uh European leaders considering dumping 2.34 trillion of US debt. I mean obviously this would be the most self-defeating stupid thing you could ever do. >> But I wouldn't put it past Europe at this stage. Um you know given who they are. So >> I did not I I did not know that. Um um that's interesting. Can can I can I comment on that as a geopolitical you know? >> Yeah because I mean things are frank geopolitically. So, I mean, broadly, you know, this is just listen, maybe it's a curl fluff it goes over or nothing, but but we're seeing a lot of reasons why non-western countries, and I'll throw Japan into the Western sort of mix here because we're tied at the hip, but yeah, but non-western countries are kind of going, whoa, this is we're just going to back away slowly. The I don't we don't know what these people are up to. They're getting a little chaotic for our taste, and we just want to be mercantalist, make stuff, sell it, and get on with life, right? And so, >> yeah. Yeah. uh they have some pretty powerful incentives to back away from >> you know >> the show that's developing here. >> Okay. So so in short order will they do it? No. Is it nothing? No, it's not nothing. Nobody would say this 10 years ago, let alone threaten to do it. You don't talk like that if you're a trade partner. I believe Europe is So it's serious. Europe is negotiating and they're negotiating they're negotiating uh with the US and China at the same time. They are a region without natural resources, a region without fiscal unity and their most productive countries are eastern block which don't really like what the western block's doing. Hungary and Poland and what have you. All right. So, so and Italy as well. So, what is Europe doing on top of that? that threat that e I didn't know about that. On top of that threat to make it look like they're not messing around. Well, this is this is a big deal. Uh first of all, over the last year, Europe has been talking rhetorically negative about the dollar. And what they've been doing is they've been still buying treasuries, but now they're hedging they're hedging their dollar risk. So Europe isn't selling their treasuries, but they are hedging their treasury risk. So they're buying treasuries, but they're hedging their dollar risk. That's bearish for the dollar. So Europe has, right or wrong, put their money where their mouth is. Fine. Okay. That's a lover spat. They'll figure it out. I say to myself now, two weeks ago, here's the like things are happening so fast now, Chris. Two weeks ago, it was announced that, and this is huge. Europe has its own pays, uh its own uh plumbing system for for money, and that plumbing system connects to Swift. Now, uh, it's called Target. I think it's called Target. Uh, I I forget what the, uh, the acronym is, but it's called Target. And that's basically a plumbing system they developed to connect all the European nations together with the Euro and then feed it into the Swift system. So, I'm simplifying it, but that's what it is, right? This plumbing system has been used to unite monetarily the European countries only. Not used for expansion, used for consolidation. Less than two weeks ago, an announcement was made that Europe is going to connect that target system to India's sovereign system, which is unheard of. This might be news to you. I wrote about it, but so much other came out that we forgot about it. But >> I hadn't heard that yet. It's a I'll send you a link to the story. I mean, you're all signed up for it. Um, but here's here's how it goes down. >> Europe cuts a deal with India to connect the plumbing. Now, when you connect the plumbing Europe to India, you cut out Swift. Are they using it? No. Is it a dream? No. This is plumbing that's already it's like a plug in a socket. Like they these are these things have been around. So you can plug the E your fun. It's like a funnel. You plug the funnel into Swift. India plugs into Swift, right? And so they meet through Swift. America is the broker. Uh they're called um uh what's the word? Not custodian banks. Uh not constituent banks. Well, American banks get in the middle, right? And and that's where the whole dollar so basically goes uh the European is going to send his euros to India and they want to give paid to rupees, euros to dollars, dollars to rupees in and out. They're saying we're going to connect the plumbing here and we can do it and we'll do it and we're working out the details now and we're going to not use Swift at all. So it's Europe euros to rupees, no middleman, no broker, no market maker, no trader, no fee, no Now I'm not saying it's easy to do in terms of the the mechanics of it, but I am saying technologically it's done. It's a done deal that just happened. Now, the pessimistic, the cynical side of me said, I'm sorry. Okay, you have to say something before I get on about this this >> I just wanted I I was just worried that I was relying on a on a single thing there, but um but no, the Wall Street Journal is detail says details talks among unnamed European officials about a nuclear option of selling US debt holdings if President-elect Bush Trump I mean sorry pushes a Ukraine peace deal without allies input, blah blah blah. So, it's it's like you're you're right. I mean, this is confirmed and they're not just they they they've dropped this bomb. >> Okay. >> That's it's phenomenal. I mean, look, I I I only said I wasn't doubting you and I don't think you thought I was down. >> No, I doubted myself for a second because I I I read it in three places. I mean, but we got Unusual Wales is reporting it, so that makes it real. Okay, we're good. >> Yeah. Um that makes it real, right? [laughter] I mean, I've been have my I've been have my having my head in the medals for so long uh that, you know, there's it's its own news cycle now. Um, so if you've got Europe threatening to sell treasuries, if you've got Europe hedging their treasuries by shorting dollars over the last six months to year and you've got Europe connecting to India uh on plumbing, you've got a full-blown European rebellion. That's what's going on. And if you look on social media on X, uh I'm starting to see, have you noticed this this week? a lot more pro- Europe like stories in my like I see I see the European unity thing happening now. It's like you know where there's like there's like a two-minute video. I swear it's propaganda. It's a video of Europe caught in between the evil America and the evil China and the evil Russia. And then it's like Europe we're going to unite. Like it's beyond Ukraine. They're getting uh it's how it's they're getting patriotic as as a whole, which is kind of funny considering they're so anti-istic, but now they want to be, you know, continent continent pride. Anyway, um I think that to to your point, there's no way they're going to sell treasuries. They'd kill themselves, which is what you said. That's right. You wouldn't do that. Uh and if you sell the treasuries, you can't unsell them. Like, the relationship is done. NATO folds in a heartbeat and Russia will just probably take over your whole continent in three weeks. If you're worried about it, you wouldn't sell your treasuries, you know. Um, are they ddollarizing? No. I mean, they're not selling treasuries. They're selling more dollars, hedging their dollar risk. So, I'm longing the bond, but I'm not I don't have the currency risk. And every nation on Earth, whether it be Japan, whether it be a a Europe European nation or the US, is pulling its currency back. That's part of your payment chain. So Europe needs its own money to build their own defense systems. So they hedge their bonds by selling treasuries, I mean by selling dollars, and they take it, they convert them to euros, and they build their own missile silos. They're all doing it now. They have to do it. And so >> and Italy and Germany both said, "Hey, maybe we'll take all of our gold back." Right? Rumblings about that. >> Well, Italy Italy's really that's another story that I was that I covered. But um the Italy story is fascinating on that front. We talked about Italy with the uh with the tax thing, but the Italy story is fascinating because Reuters and other respected news outlets put out the title as Italy threatens to not I'm paraphrasing, but you'll get the vibe. Italy threatens to nationalize its gold and take it from its own central bank. And that's true. But I said, "Wait a minute. That's not the point. In the United States, our central bank has given up its gold and our nation has it. In Europe, many of the countries in the G7 or G5, whatever is over there, uh their central banks actually hold the gold. The question is, even though the nation owns it, the central bank owns the gold. See, this is the trickery of Europe. when they instituted Basil 3 when they worked on it another story I followed in 20 201617 the ECB the overriding body that's not a nation went and told all of the G of the European nations with central banks you can no longer affect this is after the Greek crisis 2011 you can no longer hedge or trade your own gold you can no longer hedge or trade your own so they reduced the power of every central bank what were they doing they for consolidating the power of the central central bank, the ECB. So when I saw the headline, Italy's not taking the gold back from the Bank of Italy. They could do that any time. Italy's taking the gold power and control back from the ECB. And so again, sorry to say this, but we ran with the story immediately from that angle. And that story was Italy doesn't want its gold available for ECB use anymore because by taking it back from the Bank of Italy, you take it out of their plumbing, whatever that is. I don't know what the hell it's called. And that's the message. The message is Europe is fraying. Europe is fragmenting. Every country in Europe is soon moving towards an every man for himself. And so, interestingly enough, one of uh one of my uh founding subscribers who's a macro uh trader had a fund in Europe and I said, "Well, how much gold does Italy have?" Like, you know, I mean, he's like, "We know it's third in the world or whatever." He goes, "Well, the amount of gold Italy has in its central bank is not," he's what he told me. He did the math, "It is not coincidentally the same amount as their liabilities to the ECB." So, if Italy owes the ECB money and they're using gold to collateralize it, they're taking their collateral back. What does that mean? What does that mean? That means they're defaulting. I mean, not they're not defaulting, but they're saying I might not pay this debt back. The ECB, the euro could you heard it here first, it's not true, but on the very periphereral of your radar should be the euro fragmenting. Absolutely. Yeah. Other banks would do it, too. Your point Germany, etc., etc. That's it. >> Yeah. It's been a long time since I've looked into all of these terms because I remember back in the day, probably 10 years ago, I was looking at the target and then the target two imbalances, right? Basically, Germany saved and Italy spent. >> Yeah. Right. So, that was the problem, right? Germany saved, Italy spent. So, there were these huge like and and the BBC had this one chart which was this bubble circle and it showed all the different countries and there were these giant fat arrows where everybody owed everybody else. And then there were these comedians Clark and Dah had this wonderful thing which says, "Well, wait a minute." Right? the Australian guys, right? Well, wait a minute. If Italy owes Spain and Spain owes Germany and Germany ow like who pays the bit? Like there was no way it doesn't reconcile, >> right? >> So I think that gets to the point where you go, well last act in that story is every man for himself and you better have your gold inside your border when that day. >> That's right. That's I didn't I didn't even know what target was until last week. I'm like all right, let me look up find out what this is. I do remember that concept though. It was like if everybody everybody I mean Germany saved and Italy spent, right? That was during the whole Brexit thing. Uh uh Greece, we're going to default, you know, uh uh uh uh Germany, okay, fine. We'll stop saving. We'll make your bonds whole. Italy, stop spending. I remember that. Yeah. [laughter] Yeah. That's that's it. That's it. >> That was the whole dynamic. Yeah. >> That was the >> You know, the North saves, the South spends, and it just >> Exactly. And now Italy's become the North, you I I mean I mean that in a in a in a in a frugal responsible sort of way, not in a idiotic, you know, France Germany sort of way. >> Good point. Good point. So So where I mean, how do you see this playing out over the next few years? I interviewed Luke Groman yesterday and he's he was talking about these yellow warning signs. I think they're almost bright red at this point coming out of the rise in yield in Japan, maybe the splintering of the carry trade. Nobody seems to know how big it is, but we're all pretty sure it's a big thing. Um so that's sort of global macro liquidity flows ebbing and then reversing potentially you know so a lot of shifting things but basically it gets down to the oldest von von misa's statement which is look we've been on this huge debt binge since 1971 you either voluntarily abandon that that's called austerity politicians don't do this willingly it's painful or you face the the destruction of the currency system involved that's how I interpret gold's steady you know rise and turning into these buy it at any price. Vbottoms is is that I feel like we're getting close to that day new mom. You gota, you know, you get to that fork in the road. >> Like what are you saving? Because you can't pick you can't do both. >> Yeah. I mean, I I think there's a plan I think there's a plan C and plan C is capitulation, right? Plan A is let's hope everything is okay. Plan B is I think what we're in now. Plan B is we have to let gold rally because it enriches the BIRS countries. It keeps them happy. collectively, individually, in a prisoner's dilemma sort of way. It's like, long as we can keep gold out of the headlines, we'll let it rally. If silver gets in the headlines, forget about it. We can't have that. So, they don't want to be they don't want to have this event that you're talking about. But um to your point of the mindset, although I can't speak for them, I would think that they will continue doing what they're doing is they will continue doing what they're doing until they can't do it anymore, which is really like a filless thing to say. I I guess what I'm saying is we're at a point now where if China says, "I'm tired of waiting. I'm gonna buy all the gold there is up to $10,000. Then we have to capitulate. I think right now we're fortunate that China is the number two economy. Meaning they know that they have as and smart they know they have as much to lose as we are as we do. And so they they're going to also let gold go at a at a higher price at a more orderly fashion. I think if we get to this area you're talking about it's it's a it's a kinetic war. It's over. That's absolutely what would happen. I mean, it would be it would be kinetic war. We'd have to start bombing them. It' be like we'd be bombing Cambodia to get to China or we'd be invading North Korea from South Korea. Who the hell knows? But I mean, the changes here, you know, I mean, for 50 years, we've been trying to get China and Russia to become democracies. We failed. What we didn't succeed at is showing them the wisdom of capitalism and how markets work. Maybe not free markets, but markets. So, China, which actually kind of invented the market well before we were ever on the face of the earth, China and Russia understand markets. They understand commodity collateral and they've embraced capitalism. It's over. Like democracy am you know democ this is a doomer thing democracy is over in the west we tried to make them democracies by making them capitalists they said I'll be a stateowned capitalism country call it fascism call it Stalinism whatever you want but it's marketbased we're becoming an authoritarian capitalist country slowly that's what's happening like you know, we're buying stakes in companies. We're giving people $2,000 checks or threatening to do that. We're bullshitting constantly instead of being quiet and carrying a big stick. We're fraying our relationship with Europe, which maybe it's, you know, maybe it's past two. It's a big economic war now. So, if what you say plan, I call plan C. If plan C happens, it's a kinetic war. We can't >> But Vince, what about this one? This made my eyebrows shoot up and they have not come down yet where we have Morgan Stanley's chief investment officer calling for the 60 2020. Right? This is the first time I've seen a major Wall Street firm say, "Hey, we should have not just a little allocation but a 20% allocation um to gold as an inflation hedge, but I think it could also be a trust hedge, a systemic breakdown hedge, a whatever hedge you want to hedge." But that was I thought there's a change in trend going on right now. It's no longer evil to talk. you're not a gold bug anymore when you're talking about it like this. >> That's, you know, that that's that that's that was it's funny because that was the moment we talked about at the beginning that you don't talk about the United States that way. >> Well, you don't talk about gold that way and now they're doing it, >> right? You don't do that. You don't openly say, "Let's put some money in gold." You don't do that. Now, a scarred person myself and perhaps you would say, "Well, maybe that's the top." It's not the top. If I didn't know what's going on in the rest of the world, I'd say that's the top. But I know what's going on in the rest of the world. And it's not the top. It's the beginning. It's it's the end of the beginning. So to your point about the Morgan Stanley thing, it's funny because Morgan Stanley actually said on regular TV, put 20% of your money in gold. Two months prior, Goldman Sachs said the 6040 portfolio is dead. We had that report. We covered it. They weren't saying put 20% in gold, but they were saying take 20% out of bonds. So they were saying put it in gold and put it in oil. They wanted a little bit of oil in their mix too. And before that uh Jeffrey said we think that the United States citizens are going to own x% of their net worth in gold over the long run and that will put gold at about 6,500 in price. They said that and everyone's saying that but nobody like I read that nobody cared. Nobody cared. Nobody cared. But this 60 2020 thing everybody cared about I'm like, "Oh my god, they're actually speaking about it openly now." And and I almost think I almost think I want to give our government the benefit of the doubt. I almost think I here's my fantasy. I almost think that the US knows it needs to remodize gold. The US doesn't want to do it overnight and disrupt the dollar. The US has various plans to include gold to solidify its global reserve currency status globally. doesn't want to do it all at once and has started by encouraging Americans by permitting people to talk about owning gold again. They never printed. You weren't allowed to do that before. You real like it sounds like I'm exaggerating. If you were a mainstream media journalist writing a bullish gold story, you had to check in with someone and your chief editor understood. Now they're doing it and now they're doing it frequently. I think when it start when Costco started selling gold >> they were told they were allowed to it started with that >> I think America the United States of America on some level whoever's left up there that has a brave recognizes that China owns its gold through its people and the US also owns its gold through its people let us buy it and pay us to take it from us and you'll get it and that's where the capital gains idea comes in I think uh >> remonetizing it >> that's a great idea and of course you It's one of the alternative investments that will be freed up in the 401k shift that I think Trump did by EO. I'm not sure you can always do these things with an executive order, but apparently, you know, precious metals can be tucked in to 401ks, which is one of the chief complaints I've heard from people forever and ever and ever, right? I'm locked in my company's 401k plan and my options are long or longer only in stocks and bonds. You know, those were the option sets. >> Yeah. You know, um that's something I had missed. I just I just heard about that the other day and I mean I didn't miss I just I was like, "Ah, it's another rule. Who cares?" But yeah, they >> EO saying you could hold gold instruments in your IRA, right? Am I getting that right? It's supposed to be implemented in February. And although it's not 100% yet, it looks like you're going to be able to hold whatever you want. My guess is So here's here's the marketer in me, the propagandist to me, if you will, right? Um, my guess is come February or March, whatever this rule is passed down, you'll start to see stable coin gold coins. You'll start to see IRA that can hold stable coins. Right? Stable coins are legal. Gold is legal. Yes, you could own coins. Yes, you could hold gold bars. But we have a stable coin product for you. The JP Morgan stable coin. I'm telling you, man. And that's what the GLD and sov vaults are. They are a consolidation holding Americans gold who've chosen to use those tools. And now there's going to be new products. Stable coin, not GLD. You're going to basically it's a new product. There's no substitute for the physical. There's no substitute. If you want assets out of the system, a stable coin is not going to do it. A stable coin is better than GLD. GLD is not going to do it. But the best thing to have is to what you do have and that is you want to have um gold in liquid fungeable form, you know, not powder in a vial. You want to have coins and bars. And I'm not representing any coin company. I'm just saying that's you need to have a portion of your assets in gold and you have a portion of those gold assets out of the system. So if it's 60 2020 20 and 20% of your go money is in gold then of that 20% you should take you know a big portion of that out >> because it's not gold. >> Yep. Well I I ran the numbers and it was Grock and so I didn't validate this but it seemed about right and it didn't conflict with anything I knew from the Federal Reserve system. I asked what sort of investable financial assets do Americans own? It's about 130 trillion right? And so if you said well I want 5% exposure. Well, now we have to come up with$6 trillion dollars going into a gold market that in the United States is possibly one and a half trillion because I don't count the official gold that's allegedly at Fort Knox. Maybe it is, maybe it isn't. The stuff at the Federal Reserve, not that. What's actually out there available for people to vacuum up in GLD? What's on the comics? What's hanging out in rings on people's fingers? >> Yeah, >> it's tiny. I don't 6,500. I'm like, I I still can't square that circle. But what if it goes to 20%. >> Yikes. >> Yeah. I mean, well, that at that point, it'll be like, we don't have enough gold, buy the miners. >> That's what they'll start doing. And, you know, nothing wrong with that. That's right. Uh, but but I think what'll happen what'll have to happen is um I mean, let's just let's do your scenario. If the United States, which by the way, gold ownership has gone from like 3% to 5%. Uh, in depending on which chart you're looking at, I think that's that's a Goldman uh characteristic that I looked at. And uh it could go it should go as high it should go as high as 11% what what percent do I mean I mean 11% of your money is in gold. So it's not not your stock money your worth. So including including your house 11% of your net worth would be in gold or gold assets. And if you did that, uh, I actually did the math on this, uh, a couple months ago. Here's the math that I have ready for you right now. If central banks were to increase their balance sheets by 0.5% globally, that would put gold over $6,000 in one print. That would do that. And where did I get that from? That's for JP Morgan. The guys who we think are bearish are saying that. Now, with regards to individual investment, you got to go to Goldman Sachs. And they're saying every I'm gonna paraph I'm not sure exactly what they're saying in terms of the the the spec spec specificity uh but if western investors uh doubled their investment in gold from let's say 5% to 10%. It would the quote was gold would go up in orders of magnitude. So now we're back to my old mentor Victor Netherhoffer. So we're talking doubling puts it at 1.7 trillion. And I've already done the math on about 1.7 trillion. And 1.7 trillion comes out to be um uh a low of 6,500 and a high of 12,000. There you go. That's all I could do. If you were to tell me tomorrow 1.7 trillion in money is going to go into gold, it's going to go to 6,500 to $12,000. If they put it in overnight, it goes into 12,000. If they put it in carefully, between 6 and $8,000. So that's those are ideas that give me anchors. If gold were to go to $8,000 tomorrow, I want to be honest with everyone. If gold were to go to $8,000 tomorrow, I'd sell half. Why? Because I don't expect it to go there for three years, for five years, for 10 years. So I would take it out and see what's going on. But it's not going to happen. They're going to keep my money in there because they're not going to reduce t capital gains. They're not going to put it in the headlines. and no one's going to believe, especially not the CNBC people. So, buy it. >> Well, from from your lips to to the Trump administration's ears about the capital gains relaxation, that would be that would be, I think, helpful if we get into situation. But I'm just watching this very carefully because what do we do next year and the year after and the year after? Silver's in structural shortfall and of course, you know, 70% comes from base metal mines. Nobody's opening those up. I know copper's up at a at a nice high here at about five and a half bucks a pound, but um it's still not enough to open some of these marginal mines that they've been finding, right? You you need literally double that. And then True, you still have to wait 10 years for the roads to go in and the permits to be done and the water to get sourced and >> everything. >> That's that's that's a good point. You know, your point about copper as comparison, people say we can m we can mine more copper. Yeah, but copper is easier to reclaim. And so if copper is easy to reclaim, uh you're going to have less incentive to open up a new mine. And if you have less incentive to open up a new mine, you have less silver being mined. Even if silver is at the price for mining, uh it has to be profitable for you to expand. And and I think I I don't think I don't think we can have any new silver come on mine. And to your point about it, if we if we were to, yeah, we have to build roads. I mean, Trump's moving on that route. He's mov He's like, "Let's I think silver gets lost in the shuffle and explodes." And here's what I mean. Uh Trump is opening roads up in in Alaska because uh we need to get more oil. Uh Trump is uh uh the administration is uh going to be mining lithium, I think, in Arkansas. I think Exxon's going to be doing that. Opening up uh areas of the country for lithium. And they're going lithium, lithium, lithium. And they're not talking about silver, but they need silver. They can afford the losses that they'll have in silver. So, at $200, I don't feel bad for the US. As long as we're getting the lithium out of the ground, we say we will. I don't think there's any new supply coming on on online of silver until we hit a price that brings out some scrap. And that might be between 75 and $100. That's your first scrap level, I've been told. But India is not selling. Look, every piece of jewelry that an Indian used to sell for cash, they're now going to the bank for loads. You're going to start a silver bum. Not tomorrow. But you're going to I mean, people are going to be buying silver to borrow against it. What What did you give me for Christmas? Well, I I got you a silver necklace. Why? Well, because I'm giving you money, and that's what's going to happen. Silver's The problem with silver, and I say I speak for Ba, the the guy who understands the industrial side. The problem with silver is as gold goes up in price, investors will compete more and more for silver against the industrial buyers. And as the industrial price goes up and that's inelastic demand and the economy is running hot, silver could really outperform, like super outperform. Yeah. >> Yep. Yep. Well, I I've you know, my mental shift where I realized I don't buy silver. I've never bought silver. What I've done is traded one form of money for a different form of money. It's just a it's a money preference. And so I was talking with a friend the other day and he said, "Ah, you know, he's like, gosh, do I buy more at 55?" And I said, "Here, I'd make it easy. Um, I'm going to push you. You can only pick one. I have this stack of $100,000 US cash, nice crisp bills, or an equivalent amount of silver, 100,000 worth of silver. Which pile do you take?" And he's like, "Well, that's a no-brainer. >> I take this pile, right?" >> You know, so it's just it's an equivalency. You have to you have to start reframing. I you know for me I I I have to lose my dollar focus and think about it. What's it worth in dollars? That's the wrong I think the wrong architecture. >> It's been a preference. >> I'm sorry. I'm sorry. >> No, no. I was just going to say to me it's just it's a preference. Which money do you have preference for? >> Well, I mean the funny thing is we've been brainwashed to talk about dollars, ounces and dollars, not dollars and ounces. meeting. Um um where's gold? Well, it's at X dollars. Well, we're looking at the dollar. Well, we're looking at gold. Now, if you were to price things in ounces as opposed to a dollars, which is your idea, here's a stack of silver. Here's a stack of paper. And you can have one or the other. Some people are going to say the paper. Absolutely. But now tell them they can't touch it for five years. Can't do anything with it for five years. What are you going to do with it? Well, I'll take the I'll take the silver, right? right? I'm not going to take the dollars. It's going to be worth less. So, that's that's the way it works. In terms of the form of money, you know, I think the statistic was um uh uh a silver coin bought you like a night at an inn uh and at and a meal, something like that. I mean, we know the whole the minimum wage $3.25 back when I was a kid in silver quarters is still the minimum wage if you were to melt the silver down. So the point is uh fiat is designed to be debased. So uh and that error is coming to an end. >> Indeed it is. Well uh Vince, we're going to call it there. Please tell people where they find you and your incredible work. >> Sure. Um uh the Goldfix newsletter, which covers a lot of these stories, and I'm I'm happy to discuss them. It's always fun to do that with you, Chris. um is uh is VBL Goldfix, Victor Boy, Larry Goldfix, Substack. And on social media, if you are compelled uh to watch uh to to listen to things that are not on the beaten path, you would want to look for Saur and Decay or easier to look up VBL's Ghost. That name will pop up uh if you look for me there. So, um uh yeah, we we the the newsletter on Substack is about money. It's about geopolitics. It's about geoeconomics. Uh but it's very precious metal centered, hence the name. Uh we started out during COVID and uh we're doing it because no one else was doing it and we all had a lot of free time and uh we came out of COVID and uh gold came out of CO at a much higher price and now everyone's talking about it and so it's become almost a news network uh for subscribers. We're putting out we could put out five stories a day about gold only. We'll put out two or three, but we started with one story a week, you know, before. So, that's where it is. >> Great service. And by the way, happy $60 silver day. Um, here we are. So, who knows what happens next, but um, that's certainly a big milestone. So, with that, [music] Vince Lansancy, thank you so much for your time today. Really appreciate it. >> Thanks for having me.

Silver Short Squeeze Vince Lanci Explains Why It Hasn’t Even Begun

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