Investor Summary
Fund Strategy
FUND PERFORMANCE AS OF 31st March 2026
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
Horizon's Q1 2026 quarterly review presents a constructive view of the US economy despite prevailing negative headlines. The consumer remains healthy with falling household leverage, wages rising faster than inflation, and substantial cash reserves, though the bottom quintile accounts for only 4% of spending. Private credit stress is evident in software loans yielding 12%, but the 400% growth over 10 years still represents a small portion of total debt, limiting systemic risk to 0.2-0.5% GDP impact even in extreme scenarios. The US has become significantly more insulated from energy shocks due to declining energy intensity, though the Iran war has caused central bank repricing that should revert if the Strait of Hormuz reopens. AI adoption remains gradual rather than parabolic, enabling business formation rather than mass displacement. Multiple tailwinds persist including tax refunds, corporate capex, 175 basis points of Fed cuts, and AI-driven productivity gains, supporting the economy despite recent volatility from geopolitical events.
The US economy demonstrates resilience across multiple dimensions despite headline concerns, with a healthy consumer, contained private credit stress, reduced energy vulnerability, and multiple supportive tailwinds including AI-driven productivity gains.
The US consumer remains very healthy despite headlines suggesting weakness. Private credit stress is contained without broader economic transmission. The US is more insulated from energy shocks than historically. Multiple tailwinds including tax refunds, capex, rate cuts, and productivity gains continue to support the economy despite recent volatility.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 7 2026 | 2026 Q1 | - | AI, consumer, energy, Labor Market, private credit, productivity, War | - | Horizon sees US economic resilience despite negative headlines. The consumer remains healthy with strong balance sheets and rising real wages. Private credit stress is contained to software without broader transmission. Energy vulnerability has declined significantly. AI enables business formation rather than displacement. Multiple tailwinds including rate cuts and productivity gains support continued growth. |
| Jan 6 2026 | 2025 Q4 | SPX | AI, Capex, Employment, Fed, productivity, rates, small caps | - | Horizon sees the AI capex boom as sustainable with significant runway ahead, driving productivity gains that benefit corporate profits and employment. Fed rate stability should catalyze market broadening favoring smaller companies and cyclicals, supported by deregulation in 2026. Risks include Fed politicization and presidential cycle headwinds, but underlying nominal GDP growth creates favorable equity conditions. |
| Oct 1 2025 | 2025 Q3 | - | AI, banks, credit, emerging markets, Fed policy, Labor Market, rates | - | Horizon maintained fully invested positioning across all strategies in Q3 2025, riding the AI theme and banking sector strength while positioning for year-end rally. Despite labor market concerns and Fed rate cuts, the firm remains optimistic about market prospects, with tactical adjustments including regional bank overweights and shortened duration positioning. |
| Jul 21 2025 | 2025 Q2 | - | AI, Allocation, credit, Dollar, international, risk management, volatility | - | Horizon actively managed extreme Q2 volatility through tactical de-risking during April's tariff-induced sell-off, then repositioned for recovery. International equities outperformed amid dollar weakness while AI positioning was selectively adjusted. Risk Assist algorithm enabled defensive positioning during stress and reinvestment during recovery, with all models fully invested by quarter-end. |
| Apr 16 2025 | 2025 Q1 | AMG, CHTR, DOCN, FLEX, GOOGL, KMX, LOPE, NFLX, NOMD, TGT, TMO | mid cap, multi-cap, Quality, small caps, value | - | City Different's Multi-Cap Core strategy lagged the S&P 500 in Q3 due to momentum-driven rallies in speculative growth stocks they avoid. Mid-caps were the primary detractor. Despite quarterly underperformance, the strategy leads year-to-date. The manager maintains conviction in their life-cycle-based approach and views current performance as an opportunity for new money deployment. |
| Jan 14 2025 | 2024 Q4 | 1928.HK, 2282.HK, AIR.PA, ALD.AX, AZJ.AX, CNI.AX, COL.AX, CS1.AX, CXB.MC, EDV.AX, FCX, FDV.AX, GMEXICOB.MX, HSBA.L, LLOY.L, MSCI, NEE, NEM, NST.AX, QUB.AX, TECK, WYNN | Banking, commodities, Copper, Europe, gold, Macau, value | - | PM Capital's Global Companies Fund gained 10% in Q3 2025, outperforming markets through strategic exposure to commodities, European banks, and Macau gaming. Gold and copper positions drove returns as supply disruptions tightened markets. The fund maintains contrarian positioning in undervalued cyclicals while reducing exposure after realising gains on several holdings including Airbus and Spectris. |
| Jul 9 2024 | 2024 Q2 | - | Bubble, Concentration, Fed policy, technology, valuation | - | Peak Asset Management takes a contrarian stance on AI bubble fears while acknowledging elevated S&P 500 valuations at 22.5x forward earnings. Following a 35% rally from April lows, they focus on risk management and opportunistic investing in underperforming stocks rather than market timing, emphasizing process-driven wealth preservation through diversification. |
| Apr 11 2024 | 2024 Q1 | BRK-B, EMR, PG | AI, dividends, large cap, Market Valuation, uncertainty, US, value | - | Peak Asset Management maintains disciplined value investing despite market highs and political uncertainty. The S&P 500's 6% YTD gain creates challenges finding attractively priced opportunities, with quality names like Procter & Gamble trading at premium 24x P/E ratios. AI investments, defense spending, and tax certainty support valuations, but the manager emphasizes staying true to their strategic approach. |
| Jan 12 2024 | 2023 Q4 | - | asset allocation, tariffs, Trade Policy, uncertainty, volatility | - | Peak Asset Management navigated Q1 2025 trade policy volatility by maintaining disciplined asset allocation. Trump administration tariffs caused market swings from all-time highs to crashes, but the firm's approach of matching investments to client cash flow needs and maintaining conviction during uncertainty positions them to capitalize on opportunities while preserving long-term purchasing power. |
| Oct 19 2023 | 2023 Q3 | AJG, AMD, BA, CR, NVDA, ORCL, TTAN, TYL | aerospace, AI, diversification, healthcare, insurance, software, valuation |
ACR AJG TYL TTAN |
Sandhill emphasizes diversification amid AI-driven market concentration, with eight stocks representing 38% of S&P 500. Recent additions include aerospace supplier Crane, insurance broker Arthur J. Gallagher, government software provider Tyler Technologies, and trades modernization company ServiceTitan. Manager sees opportunities in overlooked sectors while maintaining quality focus and valuation discipline despite elevated market multiples. |
| Jul 17 2023 | 2023 Q2 | - | active management, Cash, fixed income, Quality, Valuations, volatility | - | Sandhill successfully deployed cash during Q2's 20% correction before markets rebounded 25% to new highs. The firm focuses on quality businesses with strong fundamentals and secular growth exposure. Now cautious due to elevated valuations at 22.2x forward earnings and inflation concerns, they've trimmed positions and raised cash for future opportunities. |
| Jan 30 2023 | 2022 Q4 | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 |
AIAI is making it easier to start businesses across all functions, from logo design to customer service, reducing startup timelines from months to hours. While concerns exist about AI displacing workers, adoption trends show gradual rather than parabolic growth, and AI is actually enabling new business formation. The technology is driving productivity gains and margin improvements across corporate functions. |
Productivity Business Formation Automation Employment |
Private CreditPrivate credit has grown 400% over 10 years but remains a small percentage of total US private sector debt. Software loans are distressed with 12% yields, but stress is not spilling over to other sectors. Even in extreme default scenarios, the economic impact would be limited to 0.2-0.5% GDP drag due to the institutional investor base. |
Credit Stress Software Institutional Investors GDP Impact | |
EnergyThe US is much more insulated from energy shocks than in the past due to declining energy intensity of the economy. Oil price shocks weigh much less on the US labor market than historically. The war in Iran has caused market repricing of central bank expectations, but if the Strait of Hormuz reopens by end of April, these effects will likely revert. |
Energy Intensity Oil Shocks Geopolitical Risk Central Banks | |
| 2025 Q4 |
AIManager views AI as a classic capital cycle bubble comparable to past infrastructure manias. Sees massive capital spending with improbable returns, creative financing, and circular dynamics among hyperscalers. Expects this to end badly for early investors despite potential societal benefits. |
Data Centers Capital Cycle Hyperscalers Infrastructure Bubble |
ValuePortfolio trades at 12.2x earnings with 8.2% earnings yield versus S&P 500's 26x multiple and 3.9% yield. Active value management through trimming expensive positions and adding to undervalued names has driven outperformance. Sees significant valuation disparity favoring value approach. |
Earnings Yield Multiple Undervalued Active Management Disparity | |
GoldGold reached $5,000 per ounce driving mining profitability through the roof. Portfolio's gold miners Kinross and Newmont saw margins surge to 33% and 32% respectively. Manager constructive on long-term gold price for myriad unfortunate reasons and trimmed positions as prices rose. |
Gold Miners Kinross Newmont Margins Profitability | |
Berkshire HathawayWarren Buffett stepped down as CEO at year-end 2025 after 61 years, with Greg Abel taking over. Manager provides extensive tribute to Buffett's legacy and compound interest achievement. Views succession as well-planned with company in excellent hands under new leadership. |
Warren Buffett Greg Abel Succession Legacy Leadership | |
Dollar StoresCombined investment in Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Five Below totaled 25.9% of holdings by year-end, up from 17.1% at start of year. These retailers contributed meaningfully to 41.4% net return despite having lower profit margins than portfolio average. Added to Five Below near yearly lows during tariff volatility. |
Dollar General Dollar Tree Five Below Retailers Tariffs | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIAI remains a mega-theme driving market performance, concentrated primarily in domestic large-caps. The team maintained focused exposure to the AI theme in the U.S. throughout the quarter, with strong earnings and AI-related deal flow contributing to high-beta equity outperformance. Investors continue to debate the payback in terms of company earnings from this massive investment boom. |
Artificial Intelligence Deal Flow Investment Boom Large Cap Technology |
RatesThe Federal Reserve delivered an expected 25 basis point rate cut in mid-September, with markets pulling forward expectations for Fed easing due to labor market concerns. Long-term bond yields fell throughout the quarter as investor anxiety over labor market conditions rose, though rates rose modestly after the Fed cut as expected. |
Federal Reserve Rate Cuts Bond Yields Monetary Policy Labor Market | |
| 2025 Q2 |
Risk AppetiteMarkets experienced extreme volatility in April due to tariff announcements, triggering recession fears and a sharp sell-off. However, risk appetite quickly recovered as markets reversed course, with credit spreads tightening and volatility measures declining by quarter-end. |
Volatility Credit Recovery Recession Tariffs |
AIAI stocks experienced significant volatility during the quarter, with concentrated exposures in software and semiconductors being reduced in April but selectively increased later as market sentiment improved. AI theme positioning was actively managed throughout the volatile period. |
Software Semiconductors Technology Growth Positioning | |
DollarThe U.S. dollar was sharply lower in the second quarter and is off to its worst first half of the year in the past three decades. This dollar weakness supported international equity outperformance throughout the quarter. |
Currency International Weakness Outperformance Global | |
| 2024 Q4 |
CopperPortfolio heavily weighted towards copper producers including Teck Resources, Freeport-McMoRan and Grupo Mexico. Copper prices rose 5% in September following major accident at Freeport's Grasberg mine, shifting market expectations from surplus to deficit heading into 2026. Several high-profile supply issues this year have tightened the market. |
Copper Mining Supply Deficit Producers |
GoldGold positions benefited from 17% rise in gold price to all-time high of US$3,873. Newmont gained 45% over the period while Northern Star rallied 26% since purchase. Despite gold trading at record levels, investor ownership of gold equities remains low with valuations still attractive and capital returns competitive. |
Gold Miners Valuation Record Ownership | |
AIArtificial intelligence identified as one of the key megatrends driving market narratives, highlighted by partnerships among OpenAI, Nvidia and Oracle. However, discussions of AI themes rarely address valuation or return on invested capital, which the manager views as cautionary. |
AI Megatrends Valuation Investment Partnerships | |
OnshoringUS reshoring and infrastructure investment identified as major themes supporting market strength. The surge in US reshoring is driving market narratives alongside AI investment cycle, though valuation concerns remain around these popular themes. |
Reshoring Infrastructure Investment US Manufacturing | |
| 2024 Q2 |
AIThe letter opens with discussion of AI bubble fears, noting that Google Search index for AI bubble rose from zero to 100 in late September/early October. The manager takes a contrarian view that widespread bubble fears may actually indicate the market is not in a bubble. |
Bubble Technology Valuation |
| 2024 Q1 |
DividendsManager emphasizes the importance of dividend-paying stocks, noting that over the last 50 years dividend payers in the S&P 500 returned 9.2% annually versus 4.3% for non-payers. Companies that pay dividends demonstrate consistent profitability and judicious cash management. |
Dividend Yield Cash Flow Profitability Income |
ValueThe manager follows a value investing approach, seeking great businesses at reasonable prices. However, they note difficulty finding opportunities as solid companies like Procter & Gamble and Emerson Electric trade at premium valuations with P/E ratios around 24 times earnings despite 5-7% growth rates. |
P/E Ratio Intrinsic Value Discount Valuation | |
AIArtificial intelligence is identified as one of the key drivers supporting current market valuations, with companies making huge investments in building data centers and AI research and development. |
Data Centers R&D Technology Investment | |
| 2023 Q4 |
Trade PolicyThe Trump administration implemented tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China on February 1st as pressure to stop Fentanyl flow. Liberation Day on April 2nd launched broader tariffs that spooked investors and caused a three-day mini-crash. A ninety-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for seventy-plus countries was announced April 9th. |
Tariffs Trade War China Liberation Day Fentanyl |
VolatilityThe manager expected significant volatility in 2025 after two consecutive 20%+ years. The S&P 500 hit all-time highs in February then declined into negative territory. Double-digit pullbacks are historically regular occurrences even in bull markets, and current valuation metrics are at historically demanding levels. |
Market Swings Pullbacks Valuation Bull Market Uncertainty | |
| 2023 Q3 |
AIAI capital expenditure boom continues driving market concentration with eight companies representing 38% of S&P 500. Manager tracks economic viability risks and energy infrastructure bottlenecks while maintaining exposure despite minimal revenue generation relative to capital deployment. |
Data Centers Semiconductors Cloud Energy Infrastructure |
SoftwareManager sees opportunity in software sector where sentiment has turned overly pessimistic amid AI displacement fears. Added to Tyler Technologies serving local governments and initiated ServiceTitan position in trades modernization, both viewed as defensible against AI disruption. |
SaaS Vertical Software Government IT Workflow Automation | |
AerospaceBoeing increasing near-term production schedule with massive backlog for both Boeing and Airbus aircraft creating long-term secular growth opportunity. Added to Crane position to benefit from aerospace division growth. |
Defense Industrial Machinery Components | |
| 2023 Q2 |
QualityManager emphasizes owning quality assets with strong management teams, low debt levels, healthy cash flows, and exposure to long-term secular growth trends. These companies tend to outperform over time and press their advantage during economic downturns. |
Quality Cash Flows Management Growth |
VolatilityThe letter highlights significant market volatility with a 20% correction followed by a 25% rebound, marking the second-fastest recovery from bear market low to new high in 75 years. Manager views volatility as opportunity for active management. |
Volatility Bear Market Correction Rebound |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2025 | Fund Letters | Horizon Investment | ACR | Crane Company | Industrials | Industrial Machinery | Bull | NYSE | Aerospace, Airbus, Boeing, Defense, Industrial technology, manufacturing, secular growth | Login |
| Oct 1, 2025 | Fund Letters | Horizon Investment | AJG | Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. | Financials | Insurance Brokers | Bull | NYSE | Acquisitions, consolidation, earnings growth, financial services, Insurance Broker, Mid-market | Login |
| Oct 1, 2025 | Fund Letters | Horizon Investment | TYL | Tyler Technologies Inc. | Information Technology | Application Software | Bull | NYSE | Fragmented Market, government software, high switching costs, Mission-Critical, Municipal, public sector, SaaS | Login |
| Oct 1, 2025 | Fund Letters | Horizon Investment | TTAN | ServiceTitan Inc. | Information Technology | Application Software | Bull | NASDAQ | AI integration, Automation, Electrical, first-mover advantage, HVAC, Plumbing, productivity, SaaS, Trades Industry | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| No ticker commentary found. | |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Sells Data | ||||||
| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| No industry data available | |||