| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
Global equity markets delivered impressive double-digit returns in Q2 2026, with the MSCI AC World Index up 14.9% despite geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns. The artificial intelligence boom sparked an extraordinary rally in semiconductor stocks, with the PHLX Semiconductor Index gaining 88% as demand surged across CPUs, GPUs, and memory chips. Companies like Micron, SK Hynix, Intel, and Japanese suppliers Advantest, Tokyo Electron, and Kioxia posted exceptional gains, with some stocks up 700-850% over 12 months. However, markets experienced a significant shift in interest rate expectations as the energy supply shock complicated the inflation outlook. The ECB became the first major central bank to raise rates since 2023, while the Fed's dot plot swung abruptly toward tightening. The US-Iran interim peace agreement in June eased immediate concerns but inflation pressures persist. Chinese equities declined 15% year-to-date on weak consumption and disappointing e-commerce results, while gold and platinum group metals rallied out of steam. South African banks performed well on improving fundamentals, though resources were down sharply. SpaceX's record $75 billion IPO highlighted robust capital markets activity.
Global equity markets delivered strong double-digit returns in Q2 2026 driven primarily by an unprecedented AI-fueled semiconductor boom, with performance becoming more diversified across US, European, Japanese, and Asian markets, though this rally occurred against a backdrop of shifting monetary policy expectations from rate cuts to rate hikes due to energy-driven inflation pressures.
Markets have shifted from expecting multiple interest rate cuts to pricing a higher-for-longer rate environment, with central banks pivoting toward tightening due to persistent inflation pressures from the energy supply shock. While the US-Iran ceasefire lowers future inflation risks, it will take time to restore production capacity and the inflation that has already occurred cannot be reversed. The AI-driven semiconductor boom continues to drive extraordinary gains, though late-quarter skepticism emerged about whether AI companies can justify their valuations. Emerging markets face headwinds from currency pressures and capital outflows, while China struggles with weak domestic consumption and deflationary pressures despite strong export growth.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 8 2026 | 2026 Q2 | 000660 KS, 005930 KS, 0700.HK, 6600.T, 6857.T, 8035.T, AMD, ARM, AU, BABA, BUD, CFR SW, CPI.JO, DSY.JO, FSR.JO, GFI, GS, IMPUY, INTC, MTN.JO, MU, NPN.JO, NVDA, PRX.AS, SBK.JO | AI, China, gold, inflation, interest rates, IPO, semiconductors, South Africa | - | Global equities surged in Q2 2026 on an unprecedented AI-driven semiconductor boom, with chip stocks gaining 88% as companies like Micron, SK Hynix, and Kioxia posted extraordinary returns. Markets pivoted from expecting rate cuts to pricing hikes as energy-driven inflation persisted, with the ECB and Fed turning hawkish. Chinese equities declined on weak consumption while gold and PGM rallies stalled. SpaceX's record $75 billion IPO underscored strong capital markets. |
| Apr 8 2026 | 2026 Q1 | 0700.HK, APO, ARES, BLK, CFR.L, NPN.JO, PRX.AS, SOL.JO | AI, geopolitics, inflation, Iran, Middle East, oil, private credit, Stagflation | - | Middle East war drove oil prices up 70% and sparked global stagflationary fears, forcing central banks to pause rate cuts. Markets entered risk-off mode with equities down 3.2%, while private credit faced redemption stress and software stocks fell on AI disruption concerns. Outlook remains uncertain pending conflict resolution. |
| Jan 7 2026 | 2025 Q4 | AMZN, AU, BRK-A, CSCO, GFI, GOOGL, HMY, IMPUY, MRP.JO, PIK.JO, SBSW, SHP.JO, SPP.JO, TFG.JO, TRU.JO, WHL.JO | AI, Defense Spending, diversification, Global Markets, gold, rates, Trade Policy | - | Global markets delivered strong 2025 returns despite trade wars and AI bubble concerns. The 'anywhere but America' trade succeeded with international markets outperforming US indices. Gold surged 65% while South African markets surprised with 42% gains. AI investment reached unprecedented levels raising sustainability questions. Elevated valuations and geopolitical tensions create risks requiring diversified, patient positioning for 2026. |
| Oct 10 2025 | 2025 Q3 | 0700.HK, AAL.L, AMZN, ANG.JO, BABA, BWO.JO, CUR.JO, GFI, GOOGL, IMP.JO, INTC, MCG.JO, META, MSFT, NVDA, ORCL, PRX.JO, TECK | AI, China, global, gold, inflation, rates, tariffs, technology | - | Global markets hit records driven by AI euphoria and rate cuts, but appear disconnected from fundamentals with stagflation risks in the US and deflationary pressures in China. Technology shares led gains while gold surged 47% as a haven asset. The AI investment theme created speculative dynamics with massive market cap increases from spending announcements alone. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q2 |
AIThe artificial intelligence boom sparked a massive rally for chip stocks, with the PHLX Semiconductor Index gaining 88% in Q2. Demand is surging across almost every category of chips, from CPUs to AI accelerators (GPUs) to memory chips required for AI models. Companies like Nvidia, Intel, Micron, and SK Hynix have seen extraordinary gains, with some stocks up 700-850% over 12 months. |
Semiconductors GPUs Memory Data Centers Cloud |
Semiconductor CycleThe semiconductor industry is experiencing unprecedented growth driven by AI demand. Memory chip makers like SK Hynix and Micron are at the center of the AI hardware ecosystem, supplying High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) essential for AI GPUs. Micron delivered sales and profit forecasts that shattered analyst estimates, while SK Hynix announced plans for a blockbuster US listing. Japanese semiconductor equipment suppliers like Advantest, Tokyo Electron, and Kioxia have also surged sharply. |
Memory HBM Semi Equipment Foundries AI | |
RatesMarkets experienced a significant shift from expecting multiple interest rate cuts to pricing rate hikes. The energy supply shock complicated the inflation outlook, leading the ECB to become the first major central bank to raise rates since 2023. The Fed's dot plot swung abruptly with nine officials now projecting at least one rate increase this year. Markets are pricing a higher-for-longer interest rate environment rather than the rate-cutting cycle expected earlier in the year. |
Inflation Central Banks Fed ECB Monetary Policy | |
GoldGold posted double-digit gains for each of the past three years, more than doubling in price as central banks, asset managers, and retail investors piled into the trade. That rally ran out of steam in late January after hitting an all-time high near $5,600 an ounce. The stronger dollar and increased likelihood of interest rate increases make gold less attractive relative to yield-bearing assets, though central bank demand remains a bright spot. |
Gold Miners Central Banks Dollar Rates | |
Platinum Group MetalsStrong platinum group metal (PGM) prices delivered much of last year's returns for South African mining companies. However, the rally has ground to a halt in Q2 2026, with shares like Implats sharply down year-to-date. The resources sector overall was down 18.6% in Q2, dragged down by gold and PGM shares. |
Platinum Palladium Mining South Africa | |
Capital MarketsSpaceX became the largest IPO in history with a record-breaking $75 billion offering that was more than four times oversubscribed, surpassing Saudi Aramco's previous record. The IPO set the stage for large offerings from OpenAI and Anthropic later this year. However, these mega-IPOs create challenges for passive investing and benchmarks due to differing fast-entry rules across index providers and profitability requirements. |
IPO Exchanges ETFs Passive Indexing | |
E-commerceChinese e-commerce companies like Alibaba and Tencent posted March-quarter revenues that missed analyst expectations, contributing to a 15% YTD decline in the MSCI China Index. Prosus and Naspers faced downward pressure of roughly 25% YTD due to their reliance on Tencent's underperformance and aggressive reinvestment in Brazilian food delivery unit iFood, affecting investor sentiment. |
China Consumer Technology Internet | |
Regional BanksSouth African banking shares such as Discovery, Standard Bank, Capitec, and FirstRand have performed well this year as investors became more optimistic about the outlook for the South African economy. Banks continue to produce resilient earnings and deliver attractive dividends, benefiting from a combination of improving fundamentals and a re-rating of valuations. The financial sector was up 8% in Q2. |
South Africa Financials Dividends Earnings | |
| 2026 Q1 |
OilOil prices spiked 70% YTD to $105/barrel due to Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz, creating the largest disruption to global oil markets in history. The near-total closure has resulted in millions of barrels of lost daily output, with supply expected to fall by 8 million barrels per day. |
Energy Geopolitics Supply Iran Hormuz |
InflationRising energy costs from the Middle East conflict are creating cost-push stagflationary pressures globally. Central banks have paused rate cuts and are considering hikes despite slowing growth, with eurozone inflation rising to 2.5% above the ECB's 2% target. |
Stagflation Energy Central Banks Rates | |
Private CreditThe $1.8 trillion private credit market faces unprecedented redemption requests as investors worry about systemic risk. Firms like Apollo, BlackRock and Ares have exercised rights to block withdrawals, particularly in direct lending to riskier private companies. |
Redemptions Systemic Risk Direct Lending Liquidity | |
AISoftware companies face an 'AI scare trade' as investors worry artificial intelligence will make enterprise software redundant. The Software Industry Index fell 24% in Q1 on fears that AI agents can replace traditional software tools, with tech giants spending $630 billion on AI development. |
Software Disruption Enterprise Automation | |
GeopoliticsThe Middle East war between US, Israel and Iran has rattled global markets, forcing a risk-off environment. Tehran's control of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted energy supplies and commercial shipping, creating uncertainty about conflict duration and escalation. |
Middle East Risk-off Uncertainty Conflict | |
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI was a dominant market driver of U.S. stocks and continues to influence market leadership. The AI-driven rally led to historic levels of market concentration with just five stocks accounting for nearly 45% of the S&P 500's total return in 2025. Strong AI-related investment was the backbone of U.S. growth in 2025. |
Artificial Intelligence Technology Market Concentration Growth Innovation |
RatesThe Federal Reserve has cut interest rates 1.75% since 2024, easing financial conditions and supporting markets. The Fed resumed rate cuts in September and markets expect further easing into 2026, albeit at a slower pace. Historically, equities have responded favorably following the restart of easing cycles. |
Federal Reserve Interest Rates Monetary Policy Easing Financial Conditions | |
InflationThe inflation storm that dominated recent years appeared to be easing, at least in the short term. November and December inflation surprised to the downside, easing investor concerns about persistent inflation pressures. However, inflation is likely to remain above target near term. |
Inflation Federal Reserve Economic Data Price Pressures | |
DollarThe U.S. dollar fell more than 9% during 2025, pressured by a high starting valuation and mounting concerns about global investor concentration in U.S. assets. With the Federal Reserve still focused on easing policy, narrowing interest rate differentials may drive a further decline in the dollar. |
US Dollar Currency Exchange Rates International | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIThe euphoria towards artificial intelligence is creating speculative market dynamics where AI spending announcements instantly reward companies with massive market cap increases. Companies like Nvidia, Alibaba, Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Oracle have seen their combined market capitalization boosted by about $1.8 trillion from AI investment pledges. While few companies show material returns on AI investments in their financials, investors continue piling into shares of companies spending big on data centers to position themselves as AI leaders. |
Data Centers Semiconductors Cloud Technology Investment |
GoldGold has soared 47% this year driven by central bank buying and geopolitical uncertainty. For centuries, gold has been the go-to haven asset in times of political and economic uncertainty, offering safety when everything else is in turmoil. Investors have sought refuge in gold amid expanding trade wars, record US debt levels, and growing concerns about Federal Reserve independence, with gold-backed ETF holdings reaching their highest point since 2022. |
Haven Assets Central Banks Geopolitical Commodities Safe Haven | |
TariffsFresh US tariffs introduced in August are beginning to filter through to Asian exporters, with China's manufacturing rebound remaining uneven. The US government introduced a 30% tariff on South African imports, though minerals critical to the US like platinum group metals, gold, chrome and coal will attract 0% tariffs. The US and EU finalized a trade framework establishing a 15% tariff ceiling on most EU goods, while tariffs have yet to push up inflation as much as feared, though risks remain. |
Trade Policy China South Africa Inflation Manufacturing | |
InflationStagflation is considered a significant risk in US markets despite continued rises. China faces deflationary pressures with CPI dipping 0.4% in August year-over-year, while South African inflation unexpectedly slowed to 3.3% in August. There is real risk that markets are underestimating the potential inflationary impact of tariffs that could still come down the tracks, though tariffs have yet to push up inflation as much as many had feared. |
Stagflation Deflation Central Banks Monetary Policy Economic Risk | |
TechnologyTechnology shares led market gains with the sector up 13% in Q3, driven by ongoing AI euphoria and solid corporate earnings. Chinese tech shares particularly outperformed with the Hang Seng Tech Index climbing 22% in Q3 and 46% year-to-date, driven by grassroots AI advancements and government support. The rally has broadened beyond mega-cap tech stocks to include beaten-down shares poised to benefit from lower borrowing costs. |
AI Semiconductors China Growth Innovation | |
RatesThe Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25bps for the first time this year, with bond markets volatile throughout the quarter as global political uncertainty and fiscal sustainability concerns came into focus. The ECB kept rates unchanged at 2.15% following seven consecutive cuts, while the Bank of England cut by 25bps despite inflation surprising on the upside. South Africa's SARB held rates at 7% after a July cut, concerned that improved inflation dynamics haven't translated into better anchored expectations. |
Federal Reserve ECB Central Banks Monetary Policy Bond Markets |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Elevator Pitches found | ||||||||||
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| INTC | Demand is surging across almost every category of chips, from the more basic CPUs that companies such as Intel, Arm Holding and AMD specialise in, to the AI accelerators, or GPUs, made by Nvidia, to the memory chips that allow servers to store the caches of data required to operate AI models. In view of that, the gains of chip shares have been extraordinary. Sandisk has soared more than 700% this year, Intel has more than tripled and Micron has climbed into the ranks of S1 trillion companies. |
| ARM | Demand is surging across almost every category of chips, from the more basic CPUs that companies such as Intel, Arm Holding and AMD specialise in, to the AI accelerators, or GPUs, made by Nvidia, to the memory chips that allow servers to store the caches of data required to operate AI models. |
| AMD | Demand is surging across almost every category of chips, from the more basic CPUs that companies such as Intel, Arm Holding and AMD specialise in, to the AI accelerators, or GPUs, made by Nvidia, to the memory chips that allow servers to store the caches of data required to operate AI models. |
| NVDA | Demand is surging across almost every category of chips, from the more basic CPUs that companies such as Intel, Arm Holding and AMD specialise in, to the AI accelerators, or GPUs, made by Nvidia, to the memory chips that allow servers to store the caches of data required to operate AI models. SK Hynix is the primary supplier of High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) to tech giants like Nvidia, who's GPUs cannot function effectively without HBM memory chips stacked alongside them. Therefore, Nvidia is a major client and partner for those HBM products supplied by SK Hynix and their direct competitors – Samsung and Micron. |
| MU | In view of that, the gains of chip shares have been extraordinary. Sandisk has soared more than 700% this year, Intel has more than tripled and Micron has climbed into the ranks of S1 trillion companies. The company's share has been on a tear, climbing 240% this year and a staggering 850% over the past 12 months. SK Hynix is the primary supplier of High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) to tech giants like Nvidia, who's GPUs cannot function effectively without HBM memory chips stacked alongside them. Therefore, Nvidia is a major client and partner for those HBM products supplied by SK Hynix and their direct competitors – Samsung and Micron. Though SK Hynix still has an edge in that market, Micron have raced to catch up in recent years. Micron and SK Hynix made back-to-back announcements of late that solidify the memory chip market as the hottest part of the AI industry. Micron delivered sales and profit forecasts that shattered analyst estimates, while SK Hynix disclosed plans for a blockbuster listing in the US. |
| 000660.KS | SK Hynix is a South Korean multinational semiconductor company and a pioneer in the AI hardware ecosystem. SK Hynix is the primary supplier of High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) to tech giants like Nvidia, who's GPUs cannot function effectively without HBM memory chips stacked alongside them. Therefore, Nvidia is a major client and partner for those HBM products supplied by SK Hynix and their direct competitors – Samsung and Micron. Though SK Hynix still has an edge in that market, Micron have raced to catch up in recent years. Micron and SK Hynix made back-to-back announcements of late that solidify the memory chip market as the hottest part of the AI industry. Micron delivered sales and profit forecasts that shattered analyst estimates, while SK Hynix disclosed plans for a blockbuster listing in the US. |
| 005930.KS | SK Hynix is the primary supplier of High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) to tech giants like Nvidia, who's GPUs cannot function effectively without HBM memory chips stacked alongside them. Therefore, Nvidia is a major client and partner for those HBM products supplied by SK Hynix and their direct competitors – Samsung and Micron. |
| GS | Goldman Sachs said strong corporate earnings and resilient consumer spending indicate the US economy remains on a solid footing, although slowing household demand and rising cost pressures could weigh on growth later this year. |
| BABA | Major constituents like Alibaba and Tencent Holdings Ltd posted March-quarter revenues that missed analyst expectations. |
| 0700.HK | Major constituents like Alibaba and Tencent Holdings Ltd posted March-quarter revenues that missed analyst expectations. However, this was mostly negated by disappointing performance from Prosus and Naspers, whose share prices have faced downward pressure this year of roughly 25% YTD. These two tech shares are still massively reliant on the performance of Tencent, which underperformed. |
| 6857.T | Large index constituents such as Advantest, Tokyo Electron and Kioxia have risen sharply because they supply equipment, infrastructure and capital to the global semiconductor industry. |
| 8035.T | Large index constituents such as Advantest, Tokyo Electron and Kioxia have risen sharply because they supply equipment, infrastructure and capital to the global semiconductor industry. |
| 6600.T | Large index constituents such as Advantest, Tokyo Electron and Kioxia have risen sharply because they supply equipment, infrastructure and capital to the global semiconductor industry. Kioxia, which specialises in unglamorous flash storage that has also seen an AI-driven surge in demand, is up close to 700% this year and now Japan's most valuable company. Kioxia was spun out from scandal-ridden Toshiba Corp. in 2019 and then had its public debut delayed multiple times due to lackluster investor demand. |
| IMPUY | Shares such as Implats, AngloGold, Goldfields, Implats and Valterra were all sharply down YTD. |
| AU | Shares such as Implats, AngloGold, Goldfields, Implats and Valterra were all sharply down YTD. |
| GFI | Shares such as Implats, AngloGold, Goldfields, Implats and Valterra were all sharply down YTD. |
| CFR.SW | Within industrials, shares such as Richemont, Anheuser-Busch and MTN produced good returns. |
| BUD | Within industrials, shares such as Richemont, Anheuser-Busch and MTN produced good returns. |
| MTN.JO | Within industrials, shares such as Richemont, Anheuser-Busch and MTN produced good returns. |
| PRX.AS | However, this was mostly negated by disappointing performance from Prosus and Naspers, whose share prices have faced downward pressure this year of roughly 25% YTD. These two tech shares are still massively reliant on the performance of Tencent, which underperformed. In addition, their aggressive reinvestment plans/spending in its Brazilian food delivery unit, iFood, and the ongoing sale of non-core portfolio assets like Delivery Hero affected investor sentiment. |
| NPN.JO | However, this was mostly negated by disappointing performance from Prosus and Naspers, whose share prices have faced downward pressure this year of roughly 25% YTD. These two tech shares are still massively reliant on the performance of Tencent, which underperformed. In addition, their aggressive reinvestment plans/spending in its Brazilian food delivery unit, iFood, and the ongoing sale of non-core portfolio assets like Delivery Hero affected investor sentiment. |
| DSY.JO | Banking shares such as Discovery, Standard Bank, Capitec and FirstRand have performed well this year as investors have become more optimistic about the outlook for the South African economy and the banks themselves continue to produce resilient earnings and deliver attractive dividends – a combination of improving fundamentals and a re-rating of valuations. |
| SBK.JO | Banking shares such as Discovery, Standard Bank, Capitec and FirstRand have performed well this year as investors have become more optimistic about the outlook for the South African economy and the banks themselves continue to produce resilient earnings and deliver attractive dividends – a combination of improving fundamentals and a re-rating of valuations. |
| CPI.JO | Banking shares such as Discovery, Standard Bank, Capitec and FirstRand have performed well this year as investors have become more optimistic about the outlook for the South African economy and the banks themselves continue to produce resilient earnings and deliver attractive dividends – a combination of improving fundamentals and a re-rating of valuations. |
| FSR.JO | Banking shares such as Discovery, Standard Bank, Capitec and FirstRand have performed well this year as investors have become more optimistic about the outlook for the South African economy and the banks themselves continue to produce resilient earnings and deliver attractive dividends – a combination of improving fundamentals and a re-rating of valuations. |
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