| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
The first quarter of 2026 was dominated by the Middle East war between the US, Israel and Iran, which created the largest oil supply disruption in history. Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz drove oil prices up 70% to $105/barrel, triggering stagflationary fears as energy costs rose while economic growth slowed. Global equities fell 3.2% as markets entered risk-off mode, with particular weakness in software stocks due to AI disruption concerns and luxury goods exposed to Middle East tensions. The $1.8 trillion private credit market faced unprecedented redemption requests, raising systemic risk concerns. Central banks paused rate cuts and markets shifted to pricing in potential rate hikes, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising to 4.3%. China showed relative resilience due to lower energy dependence and substantial oil reserves. The outlook remains highly uncertain, dependent on conflict duration and whether stagflationary pressures persist, with US growth projected at 1.8-2.0% for 2026.
Global markets are experiencing a pronounced risk-off environment driven by the Middle East war, which has created the largest oil supply disruption in history and sparked stagflationary fears that are forcing central banks to pause rate cuts and consider hikes.
The outlook remains highly uncertain due to the ongoing Middle East conflict and its impact on energy markets and global inflation. Economic growth is under pressure from high energy costs, with the US projected to grow 1.8-2.0% in 2026. The duration of the conflict will determine whether stagflationary pressures persist and whether central banks need to raise rates further.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8 2026 | 2026 Q1 | 0700.HK, APO, ARES, BLK, CFR.L, NPN.JO, PRX.AS, SOL.JO | AI, geopolitics, inflation, Iran, Middle East, oil, private credit, Stagflation | - | Middle East war drove oil prices up 70% and sparked global stagflationary fears, forcing central banks to pause rate cuts. Markets entered risk-off mode with equities down 3.2%, while private credit faced redemption stress and software stocks fell on AI disruption concerns. Outlook remains uncertain pending conflict resolution. |
| Jan 7 2026 | 2025 Q4 | AMZN, AU, BRK-A, CSCO, GFI, GOOGL, HMY, IMPUY, MRP.JO, PIK.JO, SBSW, SHP.JO, SPP.JO, TFG.JO, TRU.JO, WHL.JO | AI, Defense Spending, diversification, Global Markets, gold, rates, Trade Policy | - | Global markets delivered strong 2025 returns despite trade wars and AI bubble concerns. The 'anywhere but America' trade succeeded with international markets outperforming US indices. Gold surged 65% while South African markets surprised with 42% gains. AI investment reached unprecedented levels raising sustainability questions. Elevated valuations and geopolitical tensions create risks requiring diversified, patient positioning for 2026. |
| Oct 10 2025 | 2025 Q3 | 0700.HK, AAL.L, AMZN, ANG.JO, BABA, BWO.JO, CUR.JO, GFI, GOOGL, IMP.JO, INTC, MCG.JO, META, MSFT, NVDA, ORCL, PRX.JO, TECK | AI, China, global, gold, inflation, rates, tariffs, technology | - | Global markets hit records driven by AI euphoria and rate cuts, but appear disconnected from fundamentals with stagflation risks in the US and deflationary pressures in China. Technology shares led gains while gold surged 47% as a haven asset. The AI investment theme created speculative dynamics with massive market cap increases from spending announcements alone. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 |
OilOil prices spiked 70% YTD to $105/barrel due to Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz, creating the largest disruption to global oil markets in history. The near-total closure has resulted in millions of barrels of lost daily output, with supply expected to fall by 8 million barrels per day. |
Energy Geopolitics Supply Iran Hormuz |
InflationRising energy costs from the Middle East conflict are creating cost-push stagflationary pressures globally. Central banks have paused rate cuts and are considering hikes despite slowing growth, with eurozone inflation rising to 2.5% above the ECB's 2% target. |
Stagflation Energy Central Banks Rates | |
Private CreditThe $1.8 trillion private credit market faces unprecedented redemption requests as investors worry about systemic risk. Firms like Apollo, BlackRock and Ares have exercised rights to block withdrawals, particularly in direct lending to riskier private companies. |
Redemptions Systemic Risk Direct Lending Liquidity | |
AISoftware companies face an 'AI scare trade' as investors worry artificial intelligence will make enterprise software redundant. The Software Industry Index fell 24% in Q1 on fears that AI agents can replace traditional software tools, with tech giants spending $630 billion on AI development. |
Software Disruption Enterprise Automation | |
GeopoliticsThe Middle East war between US, Israel and Iran has rattled global markets, forcing a risk-off environment. Tehran's control of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted energy supplies and commercial shipping, creating uncertainty about conflict duration and escalation. |
Middle East Risk-off Uncertainty Conflict | |
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI was a dominant market driver of U.S. stocks and continues to influence market leadership. The AI-driven rally led to historic levels of market concentration with just five stocks accounting for nearly 45% of the S&P 500's total return in 2025. Strong AI-related investment was the backbone of U.S. growth in 2025. |
Artificial Intelligence Technology Market Concentration Growth Innovation |
RatesThe Federal Reserve has cut interest rates 1.75% since 2024, easing financial conditions and supporting markets. The Fed resumed rate cuts in September and markets expect further easing into 2026, albeit at a slower pace. Historically, equities have responded favorably following the restart of easing cycles. |
Federal Reserve Interest Rates Monetary Policy Easing Financial Conditions | |
InflationThe inflation storm that dominated recent years appeared to be easing, at least in the short term. November and December inflation surprised to the downside, easing investor concerns about persistent inflation pressures. However, inflation is likely to remain above target near term. |
Inflation Federal Reserve Economic Data Price Pressures | |
DollarThe U.S. dollar fell more than 9% during 2025, pressured by a high starting valuation and mounting concerns about global investor concentration in U.S. assets. With the Federal Reserve still focused on easing policy, narrowing interest rate differentials may drive a further decline in the dollar. |
US Dollar Currency Exchange Rates International | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIThe euphoria towards artificial intelligence is creating speculative market dynamics where AI spending announcements instantly reward companies with massive market cap increases. Companies like Nvidia, Alibaba, Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Oracle have seen their combined market capitalization boosted by about $1.8 trillion from AI investment pledges. While few companies show material returns on AI investments in their financials, investors continue piling into shares of companies spending big on data centers to position themselves as AI leaders. |
Data Centers Semiconductors Cloud Technology Investment |
GoldGold has soared 47% this year driven by central bank buying and geopolitical uncertainty. For centuries, gold has been the go-to haven asset in times of political and economic uncertainty, offering safety when everything else is in turmoil. Investors have sought refuge in gold amid expanding trade wars, record US debt levels, and growing concerns about Federal Reserve independence, with gold-backed ETF holdings reaching their highest point since 2022. |
Haven Assets Central Banks Geopolitical Commodities Safe Haven | |
TariffsFresh US tariffs introduced in August are beginning to filter through to Asian exporters, with China's manufacturing rebound remaining uneven. The US government introduced a 30% tariff on South African imports, though minerals critical to the US like platinum group metals, gold, chrome and coal will attract 0% tariffs. The US and EU finalized a trade framework establishing a 15% tariff ceiling on most EU goods, while tariffs have yet to push up inflation as much as feared, though risks remain. |
Trade Policy China South Africa Inflation Manufacturing | |
InflationStagflation is considered a significant risk in US markets despite continued rises. China faces deflationary pressures with CPI dipping 0.4% in August year-over-year, while South African inflation unexpectedly slowed to 3.3% in August. There is real risk that markets are underestimating the potential inflationary impact of tariffs that could still come down the tracks, though tariffs have yet to push up inflation as much as many had feared. |
Stagflation Deflation Central Banks Monetary Policy Economic Risk | |
TechnologyTechnology shares led market gains with the sector up 13% in Q3, driven by ongoing AI euphoria and solid corporate earnings. Chinese tech shares particularly outperformed with the Hang Seng Tech Index climbing 22% in Q3 and 46% year-to-date, driven by grassroots AI advancements and government support. The rally has broadened beyond mega-cap tech stocks to include beaten-down shares poised to benefit from lower borrowing costs. |
AI Semiconductors China Growth Innovation | |
RatesThe Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25bps for the first time this year, with bond markets volatile throughout the quarter as global political uncertainty and fiscal sustainability concerns came into focus. The ECB kept rates unchanged at 2.15% following seven consecutive cuts, while the Bank of England cut by 25bps despite inflation surprising on the upside. South Africa's SARB held rates at 7% after a July cut, concerned that improved inflation dynamics haven't translated into better anchored expectations. |
Federal Reserve ECB Central Banks Monetary Policy Bond Markets |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Elevator Pitches found | ||||||||||
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| APO | In Q1, assets managed by firms such as Apollo Global Management Inc., BlackRock Inc. and Ares Management Corp. faced unprecedented requests for redemptions and, in many cases, have exercised their right to block investors from getting all their money out. |
| BLK | In Q1, assets managed by firms such as Apollo Global Management Inc., BlackRock Inc. and Ares Management Corp. faced unprecedented requests for redemptions and, in many cases, have exercised their right to block investors from getting all their money out. |
| ARES | In Q1, assets managed by firms such as Apollo Global Management Inc., BlackRock Inc. and Ares Management Corp. faced unprecedented requests for redemptions and, in many cases, have exercised their right to block investors from getting all their money out. |
| CFR.L | Richemont (-19%): military escalation could have serious consequences for the sector's leading brands, which are highly exposed to the region. According to specialists, the worsening tensions in the Middle East represent a real threat to the luxury industry, which generates around 5% of its sales in the region, where Swatch, Richemont and LVMH are particularly well established. |
| NPN.JO | Naspers/Prosus (-23% and -25% respectively): recent results were strong. The market, however, punished Tencent – along with other Chinese tech companies – for failing to lay out clear visions on how to profit from artificial intelligence. A lack of near-term visibility on monetization – Naspers/Prosus owned 22.9% of Tencent. |
| PRX.AS | Naspers/Prosus (-23% and -25% respectively): recent results were strong. The market, however, punished Tencent – along with other Chinese tech companies – for failing to lay out clear visions on how to profit from artificial intelligence. A lack of near-term visibility on monetization – Naspers/Prosus owned 22.9% of Tencent. |
| SOL.JO | Sasol bucked the trend, with the share price up a staggering 112% in Q1, on the back of the steep increase in the oil price. |
| 0700.HK | The market, however, punished Tencent – along with other Chinese tech companies – for failing to lay out clear visions on how to profit from artificial intelligence. |
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