| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | -1.54% | -1.54% |
Q1 2026 was defined by a sharp geopolitical repricing following Middle East conflict escalation that triggered the largest energy price surge in four decades, with Brent crude peaking near $126. This renewed inflation shock exposed the fragility of traditional 60/40 allocations while commodities outperformed dramatically with the S&P GSCI rising 35.9%. The manager's anti-fragile philosophy proved prescient, with portfolios positioned away from US mega-cap concentration toward emerging markets, European banks, and energy producers. The NCM Global Equity Selection Fund outperformed 80% of peers for the quarter despite March volatility. Key risks include persistent geopolitical instability, stagflationary pressures particularly impacting Europe and Asia, and an increasingly erratic policy communication environment. Structural catalysts include accelerating European energy independence, Cold War-level defense spending increases, and the Fed's transition from active manager to residual stabilizer. The outlook remains constructively positioned for continued dispersion and real asset outperformance while maintaining disciplined risk management through systematic overlays and selective hedging strategies.
In a world shaped by structural inflation, geopolitical instability, and rapidly shifting narratives, resilience matters more than prediction, requiring portfolios focused on diversification across regimes, disciplined risk management, and selective exposure to areas offering structural asymmetry including commodities, energy, precious metals, and selected non-US markets.
The manager expects volatility to remain elevated until greater clarity emerges on the US strategy surrounding the Iran conflict. They believe the geopolitical shock may prove persistent, eventually shifting markets from focusing on delayed Fed easing to pricing weaker growth and tighter balance-sheet conditions. The tone is cautiously constructive on structural opportunities while acknowledging near-term uncertainty.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10 2026 | 2026 Q1 | - | commodities, defense, energy, Fed, Geopolitical, gold, inflation, Stagflation | - | Geopolitical shock triggered massive energy surge and stagflation fears, validating anti-fragile positioning in commodities, non-US markets, and real assets over traditional allocations. Fund outperformed peers through disciplined diversification away from US mega-cap concentration. Structural shifts toward energy independence and defense spending create durable investment themes while Fed policy becomes increasingly accommodative to fiscal needs. |
| Feb 3 2026 | 2025 Q4 | - | AI, Currency, Dollar, emerging markets, Fed policy, gold, Precious Metals, Silver | - | Global markets experienced a decisive leadership shift in 2025, with non-US equities significantly outperforming amid a structural USD downcycle. Precious metals delivered exceptional returns with gold up 64% and silver up 147%. NCM's Global Equity Selection Fund captured these dynamics through active allocation, delivering +24.3% returns while positioning for continued USD weakness and precious metals strength. |
| Sep 30 2025 | 2025 Q3 | - | Dollar, Fed, gold, inflation, monetary policy, Precious Metals, Safe haven | - | Noble Capital's gold fund surged 57% year-to-date, targeting $5,000 gold based on Federal Reserve credibility collapse. With rate cuts at full employment and inflation targets drifting above 2.5%, the traditional 60/40 model is broken. Gold has replaced Treasuries as the primary safe haven, driving expected massive institutional rebalancing toward precious metals. |
| Jan 17 2025 | 2024 Q4 | - | consumer, earnings, Fed, inflation, Markets, Trade Policy | - | Markets surged in Q2 2025 with S&P 500 up 10.2% and NASDAQ gaining 16.7%, driven by cooling inflation and strong earnings. Fed held rates steady while CPI showed meaningful deceleration. Trade policy volatility from new tariffs was viewed as manageable. Broad sector strength with tech leading gains, though consumer confidence declined significantly. |
| Oct 8 2024 | 2024 Q3 | AAPL, AMZN | Currency, Geopolitical, South Africa, tariffs, technology, Trade Policy, United States | - | Alpine Capital views Q1 2025's tariff-driven market volatility as temporary disruption rather than structural decline, maintaining high conviction in American economic resilience and capitalist superiority. The firm deliberately underweights South Africa due to persistent capital outflows and political risks, expecting 2025 consolidation with selective opportunities emerging from valuation resets. |
| Jul 4 2024 | 2024 Q2 | AMZN, EADSF, GS, HCLTECH.NS, INFY, JPM, MSFT, ORCL, RYCEY, TCS.NS, TECHM.NS, WMT | defense, India, industrials, small caps, technology, Trade Policy | - | India-focused fund leverages domestic consumption resilience and small-cap mispricing opportunities. Despite U.S. trade tensions, India's economy remains robust with minimal export dependency. Portfolio concentrated in defense indigenization and industrial beneficiaries. Strong long-term track record of 13.2% annual returns validates strategy of patient capital deployment in undervalued smaller companies within world's fastest-growing major economy. |
| Apr 3 2024 | 2024 Q1 | - | asset allocation, Fed policy, rebalancing, Valuations | - | Fed Chair Powell's warning about elevated equity valuations sparked investor concerns, but the manager argues against selling based on valuation fears. Despite the S&P 500 trading 20% above historical averages, expensive stocks often get pricier. Systematic rebalancing maintains proper asset allocation automatically, making market timing unnecessary for long-term investors. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 |
OilBrent crude crossed $100 on March 9th and peaked near $126, marking the largest monthly increase in four decades following the escalation of conflict in the Middle East and closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The IEA described it as the most severe energy security shock in history. |
Energy Geopolitical Supply Shock Prices |
GoldGold experienced a violent correction in Q1 despite geopolitical tensions, as markets treated it as a liquid funding source rather than an immediate hedge. The manager maintains that the broader bull case remains intact with central bank accumulation and de-dollarization trends providing structural support. |
Precious Metals Hedge Liquidity Central Banks Monetary | |
CommoditiesCommodities were the clear outperformers with the S&P GSCI Futures Index rising 35.9%, driven by geopolitical risk and energy price surges. The quarter reinforced the value of maintaining exposure to real assets in an environment of persistent inflation pressure. |
Real Assets Inflation Diversification Performance Stagflation | |
InflationThe quarter was defined by a renewed inflation shock triggered by energy price surges, reviving stagflation concerns and exposing the fragility of traditional multi-asset allocations. Markets began repricing a shallower Fed easing path as inflation expectations moved higher. |
Stagflation Energy Fed Expectations Policy | |
DefenseA $1.2 trillion defense spending request adds fiscal support to the US economy, while OECD defense spending is increasing at a pace reminiscent of the Cold War. Procurement is shifting toward cost-efficient, AI-enhanced, asymmetric capabilities. |
Spending Military Procurement AI Capabilities | |
Energy TransitionThe geopolitical shock creates direct incentive for energy-importing countries to accelerate drive toward greater energy independence, meaning faster electrification and renewed investment in solar infrastructure where silver remains a critical input. |
Independence Solar Electrification Silver Security | |
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process over three years, serving as force multipliers for human judgment rather than replacements. The firm uses AI tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code for efficiency and risk analysis. They view current AI displacement narratives as overstated and see significant investment opportunities emerging in both infrastructure and application layers. |
Artificial Intelligence Machine Learning Automation Software Technology |
SoftwareSoftware companies face structural headwinds from AI lowering barriers to entry and increasing customer bargaining power. Many companies have been running with excess headcount and may face pricing pressure that can be countered with lower costs to serve. The market has significantly re-rated major financial data and software providers downward over the past year. |
SaaS Enterprise Software Technology Valuation Disruption | |
SemiconductorsLattice Semiconductor represents an under-appreciated AI winner with immediate gains and longer-term optionality. The company's focus on efficiency rather than maximal performance positions it favorably for AI servers, particularly in security functions as Root of Trust chips. FPGAs are valuable for security due to their programmability and ability to chase moving targets. |
FPGA AI Infrastructure Security Efficiency Hardware | |
LogisticsAmazon's logistical prowess represents one of the foremost moats in business today and will be enhanced with AI. The company is uniquely positioned to dominate the coordination layer across its entire logistics network with AI's help, through better orchestration of assets and buildout of more sophisticated robotics. |
Supply Chain Automation E-commerce Robotics Infrastructure | |
| 2025 Q3 |
GoldGold surged 16.6% in Q3 and 45.9% year-to-date, driven by inflation concerns, skepticism about fiat currencies, and doubts over U.S. exceptionalism. The fund targets gold at $5,000 per ounce, supported by persistent inflation, de-dollarization, and erosion of central bank independence. Gold has become the true safe haven, replacing Treasuries in portfolio diversification. |
Safe Haven Inflation Hedge De-dollarization Monetary Policy Central Banks |
SilverSilver delivered exceptional performance, up 61% year-to-date, with both safe-haven demand (40%) and robust industrial demand (60%) driving gains. The gold-silver ratio compressed to 83 but remains above historical mean of 63. After breaking $44/oz resistance, silver is positioned to test all-time high of $49.80. |
Industrial Demand Solar Electronics Safe Haven Ratio | |
PlatinumPlatinum was the top performer within precious metals, surging 70% year-to-date and trading near $1,600/oz. Supply constraints from South Africa (70%+ of global output) and structural demand from green technologies including fuel cells and hydrogen production support a 12-month target of $2,300/oz. |
Supply Constraints Green Technology Fuel Cells Hydrogen South Africa | |
InflationThe fund identifies a long-term inflationary cycle rooted in systemic forces including loose fiscal/monetary policy, supply chain restructuring, energy transition, and demographic shifts. The Fed has quietly shifted its inflation target above 2.5%, signaling the end of the 2% world and supporting precious metals as inflation hedges. |
Monetary Policy Fiscal Policy Supply Chain Demographics Target | |
DollarThe U.S. Dollar Index rebounded 1.1% in Q3 but remains down 9.8% year-to-date, its worst first nine months since 1986. Growing distrust of the dollar and fiat currencies fuels de-dollarization, with countries diversifying reserves toward physical gold and reducing U.S. Treasury holdings. |
De-dollarization Reserve Currency Fiat Currency Treasury Holdings Weakness | |
| 2024 Q4 |
InflationBoth Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index showed meaningful signs of cooling, with CPI declining 0.1% in June 2025 marking the first monthly drop since May 2020. Core CPI rose just 0.1% in June, the smallest increase since August 2021, while year-over-year inflation fell to 3.0% from 3.3% in May. |
CPI PPI Deflation Prices Fed |
Trade PolicyNewly imposed tariffs on select imports, particularly in tech and renewable energy sectors, reshaped investor expectations and introduced pockets of volatility. Markets largely interpreted these trade policy shifts as manageable and potentially stimulative to domestic production in the medium term, though consumers accelerated purchases ahead of anticipated tariffs. |
Tariffs Imports Trade Policy Domestic | |
RatesThe Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5.25% to 5.50%, reflecting ongoing cautious stance amid persistent inflationary pressures. Chair Powell emphasized requiring greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2% before considering rate cuts, signaling the Fed is not in a hurry to ease monetary policy prematurely. |
Fed Interest Powell Monetary Policy | |
| 2024 Q3 |
Trade PolicyTariff implementation has created market disruption and operational paralysis across sectors. The Trump administration's rapid policy shifts have introduced volatility, though the manager supports addressing trade imbalances in principle. A more measured approach would better accommodate global economic complexities. |
Tariffs Supply Chain Policy Trade Disruption |
United StatesThe US exemplifies the capitalist paradigm with the world's largest, most profitable corporations generating substantial international revenue. American business culture prioritizes shareholder value, supported by extensive liquid markets and global talent attraction. The Trump administration's pro-business orientation further bolsters long-term appeal. |
Capitalism Shareholder Value Technology Global Leadership | |
South AfricaClient allocations remain deliberately underweighted due to persistent capital outflows, political instability, and economic stagnation. The ZAR reached highs of R17 to USD under favorable conditions, casting doubt on currency recovery. Equity markets lack catalysts despite discounted valuations. |
Currency Capital Outflows Political Risk Valuation Bonds | |
| 2024 Q2 |
IndiaIndia is the world's fastest-growing major economy, on track to overtake Germany as the third-biggest by 2028. The economy shows resilience against U.S. tariffs due to its domestic consumer-driven growth model, with goods exports to the U.S. accounting for just 2.2% of GDP. India's buoyant economic growth, monetary policy credibility, fiscal discipline, and reformist governance were rewarded with an S&P sovereign credit rating upgrade. |
Domestic consumption Economic growth Sovereign rating Currency GDP |
DefenseThe fund has increased exposure to defense and aerospace businesses, which now account for roughly 6% of capital. Companies are benefiting from the ongoing indigenization of India's defense/aerospace procurement. Examples include Airbus awarding Dynamatic Technologies one of the largest-ever aerospace export contracts won by an Indian company, and Rolls-Royce signing a long-term deal with Azad Engineering. |
Indigenization Aerospace Export contracts Defense procurement Manufacturing | |
Trade PolicyMounting U.S. trade barriers have accelerated India's pursuit of free trade deals with other countries, including recent agreements with the UK and UAE. India hopes to finalize an even bigger agreement with the European Union by year-end. The U.S. imposed 25% tariffs in July 2025, followed by additional 25% tariffs in August, bringing total duties to 50% on categories including apparel, chemicals, and jewelry. |
Tariffs Free trade Export diversification Trade agreements Economic partnership | |
Small CapsCompanies with market caps below $500 million account for 56% of invested capital, up roughly 10 percentage points from last year. The portfolio's average market capitalization is just under $1 billion, down from nearly $2 billion last fall. This shift reflects exiting larger-cap positions at substantial gains and adding to smaller, more attractively mispriced companies. |
Market capitalization Mispricing Portfolio concentration Value opportunity Size factor |
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