| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
Ophir Asset Management argues that current market volatility driven by the Iran war creates attractive opportunities in global small cap equities. The firm expects the conflict to end within weeks rather than months, as rising bond yields from oil-driven inflation concerns pressure the Trump administration to de-escalate. Unlike the 2022 oil spike during Russia-Ukraine conflict, current conditions offer better positioning for small caps due to lower starting valuations and different macro backdrop. US small caps trade at 15x P/E with significant downside protection, while Australian small caps are particularly compelling at 13.9x P/E - the lowest relative to large caps in 20 years following RBA rate hikes. The managers highlight Nvidia trading cheaper than ExxonMobil as evidence of dramatic sentiment swings creating potential mispricings. Their growth-focused strategy remains unchanged despite short-term underperformance, as they view current volatility as temporary rather than structural. The firm emphasizes their edge in intensive small cap research rather than attempting to time geopolitical events.
Small cap equities offer compelling value opportunities across global markets, with current geopolitical volatility creating attractive entry points rather than fundamental deterioration in long-term prospects.
Manager expects Iran war to end in weeks rather than months based on bond market pressure constraining Trump. Small caps offer attractive risk-adjusted opportunities given current valuations and margin of safety. Australian small caps particularly compelling at current discount to large caps.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15 2026 | 2026 Q1 | NVDA, XOM | AI, Australia, Geopolitical, oil, rates, small caps, Valuations | - | Ophir sees Iran war creating temporary small cap opportunities rather than structural risks. Bond market pressure should end conflict within weeks. Small caps offer compelling value with US at 15x P/E and Australian at 13.9x P/E - lowest relative valuations in decades. Nvidia cheaper than ExxonMobil exemplifies sentiment extremes creating potential mispricings for patient capital. |
| Jan 21 2026 | 2025 Q4 | AAPL, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA | earnings, global, Outperformance, small caps, stock picking, technology | - | Ophir delivered strong 2025 performance through pure stock selection, with Global Opportunities Fund returning 25.6% after fees. Despite continued large cap tech dominance, small cap earnings expectations are finally improving relative to large caps for the first time since 2022. This missing catalyst, combined with supportive economic factors, positions small caps for sustained outperformance in 2026. |
| Nov 30 2025 | 2025 Q3 | - | Australia, Factors, Fed policy, global, growth, Market Entry, small caps | - | Ophir funds underperformed in November due to growth factor headwinds from shifting Fed rate expectations, not fundamental issues. Growth versus value spread reached 20-year extremes. The manager maintains conviction in growth-focused small cap strategy, viewing temporary factor movements as noise. December recovery already underway as rate cut probabilities normalize. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 |
OilIran war has caused oil price spike similar to 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict. Current spike is self-imposed by US and can be wound down through military de-escalation. Oil prices driving inflation concerns and bond yield increases, pressuring Trump administration to limit war duration. |
Iran Geopolitical Inflation Energy |
Small CapsSmall caps better positioned for current oil spike than 2022 due to lower starting valuations and different macro backdrop. US small caps trading at 15x P/E with significant downside protection. Australian small caps particularly cheap at 13.9x P/E, lowest relative to large caps in 20 years. |
Valuations Australia Margin of Safety | |
AINvidia now trades at lower P/E than ExxonMobil despite being the AI infrastructure leader. Market questioning durability of AI capex cycle after pricing Nvidia to perfection at 60x P/E three years ago. Represents potential great mispricing opportunity. |
Nvidia Valuations Technology Semiconductors | |
RatesBond market acting as constraint on Trump policies through rising 10-year yields. Higher rates from oil-driven inflation concerns forcing policy moderation. Rate environment key driver of small cap valuations and market dynamics. |
Federal Reserve Inflation Policy Yields | |
| 2025 Q4 |
ConcentrationU.S. equity market concentration has reached extreme levels with the ten largest S&P 500 constituents accounting for over 40% of index weight. This concentration is driven by both expanding valuations and growing earnings share of mega-cap technology companies, creating significant portfolio management challenges for active managers. |
Market Structure Index Weight Mega Cap Risk Management |
Risk ManagementConcentrated markets create uneven beta distributions and increased correlation among smaller stocks, making traditional risk models inadequate. The ten largest companies now contribute over 50% of S&P 500 volatility with aggregate volatility 1.5 times the index, requiring more robust approaches to measuring and managing portfolio risk. |
Beta Volatility Correlation Risk Models | |
AIBreakthroughs in artificial intelligence have helped drive notably strong performance in mega-cap technology stocks, contributing to increased market concentration. AI is identified as one of the key technological drivers behind the outperformance of the largest companies in recent years. |
Technology Performance Innovation | |
| 2025 Q3 |
GrowthGrowth-oriented stocks underperformed significantly in November due to higher-for-longer interest rate expectations. The manager maintains their growth factor bias despite temporary headwinds, believing companies that consistently grow earnings faster than expectations will be rewarded over time. |
Growth Valuations Earnings Small Caps Rates |
RatesFederal Reserve policy expectations shifted dramatically in November, with rate cut probabilities crashing from 100% to 30% for December. This higher-for-longer rate environment created significant factor headwinds for growth stocks and impacted portfolio performance. |
Fed Interest Rates Monetary Policy Rate Cuts Liquidity |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Elevator Pitches found | ||||||||||
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| NVDA | Nvidia's one-year forward PE is 18.7x, while ExxonMobil's is 20.2x. That's right, Nvidia stock is now cheaper than ExxonMobil. The company supplying the picks and shovels for the AI gold rush – the most important technology buildout of our lifetime – trades at a lower one-year forward P/E than an oil major that has roots back to the 1870s. Three years ago, the market was willing to pay almost anything for AI, and at a P/E of 60x had priced Nvidia to perfection and then some. Today, despite expecting Nvidia's earnings to almost double this financial year from US$113 billion to US$203 billion, the market is now pricing Nvidia more like a utility. |
| XOM | ExxonMobil's P/E averaged 11x over the last 5 years. Then oil shot up on the back of the Iran war, and Exxon is now trading at almost twice that P/E. We're not saying Exxon is overvalued. Oil is a critical business and Exxon is no doubt exceptionally well run. |
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