| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | 12.8% |
| 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21.9% | 32.1% | -20.7% | 22.6% | 32.1% |
The Guinness Global Innovators Fund returned -1.5% in November, underperforming the MSCI World by 0.9 percentage points as AI bubble concerns weighed on technology stocks. Despite strong performance from Medtronic and Alphabet, weakness in Nvidia and Salesforce offset gains. The Fund maintains top quartile performance over longer time horizons. Looking ahead to 2026, the investment environment appears constructive with expansive monetary policy, substantial fiscal stimulus through the OBBA, and continued AI capex growth supporting earnings expectations of 15.9% for the S&P 500. However, elevated valuations across all regions, emerging AI bubble concerns, and persistent US inflation risks create uncertainty. The Fund's quality-focused approach becomes more attractive as quality stocks trade below their 10-year average premium. The strategy continues to emphasize high-quality companies with durable competitive advantages, strong balance sheets, and exposure to secular innovation themes, using equal-weight positioning to manage concentration risk while maintaining conviction in long-term growth drivers.
The Fund invests in high-quality global companies exposed to secular innovation themes, using equal-weight positioning and valuation discipline to capture long-term growth while managing risks from market volatility and bubble concerns.
The outlook for 2026 appears constructive with favorable monetary easing, substantial fiscal stimulus, and continued AI investment supporting earnings growth. However, elevated valuations, AI bubble concerns, and persistent US inflation risks create uncertainty. Quality investing is expected to become more attractive given current relative valuations.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31 2025 | 2025 Q4 | 2020.HK, ABB, AMAT, APH, AVGO, CRM, DHR, GOOGL, ICE, LRCX, MDT, META, NFLX, NVDA, ORCL, SHL.DE, TMO | AI, global, inflation, innovation, monetary policy, Quality, semiconductors, technology | - | AI capex cycle continues to gather momentum with Hyperscaler spending expectations rising 78% for 2026 and 95% for 2027. However, concerns around an AI bubble… |
| Oct 30 2025 | 2025 Q3 | - | - | - | - |
| Jul 2 2025 | 2025 Q2 | - | - | - | - |
| Apr 1 2025 | 2025 Q1 | - | - | - | - |
| Jan 8 2025 | 2024 Q4 | - | - | - | - |
| Oct 1 2024 | 2024 Q3 | - | - | - | - |
| Jun 30 2024 | 2024 Q2 | - | - | - | - |
| Apr 2 2024 | 2024 Q1 | - | - | - | - |
| Jan 9 2024 | 2023 Q4 | - | - | - | - |
| Sep 30 2023 | 2023 Q3 | - | - | - | - |
| Jul 1 2023 | 2023 Q2 | - | - | - | - |
| Mar 31 2023 | 2023 Q1 | - | - | - | - |
| Jan 9 2023 | 2022 Q4 | - | - | - | - |
| Oct 6 2022 | 2022 Q3 | - | - | - | - |
| Jul 7 2022 | 2022 Q2 | - | - | - | - |
| Apr 6 2022 | 2022 Q1 | - | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process through tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code. The firm views AI as a force multiplier for human judgment rather than a replacement, emphasizing the Kasparov Law principle. They believe the market narrative around AI displacement is swinging to unhelpful extremes, creating investment opportunities. |
Machine Learning Automation Software Productivity Innovation |
InflationInflation has continued to be a persistent feature in Japan and has prompted changes in both corporate and consumer behavior. Importantly, inflation has fed through to corporate earnings and equity performance. Companies that have successfully passed on higher costs to consumers have benefited from improved operating margins. |
Inflation Corporate Earnings Operating Margins Consumer Behavior Cost Pass-through | |
QualityThe company emphasizes investing in businesses with excellent economics, durable competitive advantages, and high-integrity management. This quality focus is evident in concentrated equity holdings and operating business acquisitions. |
Durable Advantages Management Quality Economic Moats Competitive Position | |
RatesFederal Reserve resumed rate-cutting cycle with first cut since December 2024, signaling resumption of easing. Expected three cuts of 25bps between now and first quarter 2026 as Fed responds to signs of weakness in US labor market. |
Fed Monetary Policy Labor Market Easing Liquidity | |
SemiconductorsRGA initiated a position in Lattice Semiconductor, viewing it as an under-appreciated AI winner with immediate gains and longer-term optionality. Lattice's focus on efficiency and advantages in low-power, small footprint FPGAs position it favorably for AI servers, particularly as the only Post-Quantum Cryptography secure chips on the market. |
FPGAs Security Efficiency AI Infrastructure Programmable |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Elevator Pitches found | ||||||||||
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| 2020.HK | The Fund also benefited from positive stock selection in Consumer Discretionary thanks to Anta Sports (+4.6%). |
| AMAT | Top gainers in the Fund this quarter included Applied Materials (+26%). During the quarter, we trimmed the Fund's holding in Applied Materials as it rallied |
| APH | We trimmed Amphenol Corp. |
| AVGO | The primary contributors to its performance were our exposures to Broadcom |
| CRM | By looking at their Rnancials, FactSet, PayPal, Adobe, and Salesforce seem to be doing Rne. The market, however, is reading subdued revenue growth as a sign of increased competition on their core oSerings. These companies' outlooks look more di'cult than their past. |
| DHR | After lagging through the first three quarters of 2025, Danaher's stock rebounded during Q4 as bioprocessing, life science, and diagnostics demand continued to recover from a cyclical trough. On the 3Q25 call, management established conservative 2026 growth expectations. Revenue is expected to continue to lag long-term trends at 3-6% but improve throughout the year. |
| GOOGL | In the third quarter, Google, Kairos Power, and the Tennessee Valley Authority announced a major collaboration centered on a novel power purchase agreement. Google followed this announcement with another significant step forward. On October 27, Google and NextEra Energy announced plans to restart the Duane Arnold Energy Center. |
| ICE | Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) is a long-term holding and remains a top 10 position in the Fund. ICE's share price has been under pressure, largely due to AI-related concerns. The share price has already recovered 15% from recent lows. |
| LRCX | we believe it is well positioned to become an approved vendor for Lam Research (a supplier of wafer-fabrication equipment) as well |
| MDT | These purchases were funded through trims to medical device company Medtronic |
| META | On January 9, Meta Platforms unveiled a new agreement with Vistra—the largest generator of competitive electricity in the United States—as well as with TerraPower and Oklo. The announcement builds on Meta's agreement last year with Constellation Energy and positions the company to become one of the largest corporate purchasers of nuclear-generated electricity in the United States. |
| NFLX | NFLX was the portfolio's largest detractor in 4Q25 following investor concerns around near-term subscriber growth and rising content spending. While revenue grew approximately 10% year-over-year, management guided to slower net subscriber additions in North America and Europe after recent price increases, and margins were pressured by elevated investment in live sports and international content. |
| NVDA | AI bellwether NVIDIA's very strong set of earnings in late November helped the AI theme re-assert its dominance when investors breathed a sigh of relief following the results. |
| ORCL | Investor enthusiasm for Oracle's stock in calendar year 2025 was initially driven by several multi-billion-dollar contracts it signed with leading AI companies, including OpenAI and Meta. However, in Q4 sentiment for ORCL's growth prospects shifted to skepticism, as investors began to scrutinize the return profile of the substantial capital investments required to support the approximately $500 billion of contracts signed by Oracle. Given the widening range of potential outcomes associated with Oracle's elevated capital needs, we reduced our position in ORCL during Q4. |
| SHL.DE | During the quarter, we also initiated a position in Siemens Healthineers, a global leader in medical imaging and advanced therapies. The company is well placed to benefit from structural megatrends, such as aging demographics, greater emphasis on personalised care and the rising prevalence of chronic diseases. |
| TMO | Thermo Fisher Scientific was a strong contributor with 8.69% ending weight and 1.47% contribution. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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