| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
Fiera Capital's Q2 2026 outlook centers on a stagflationary base case (55% probability) driven by Middle East conflict disrupting global energy markets and ongoing trade policy uncertainty. Oil prices surged 76.6% in Q1 as the Strait of Hormuz closure choked off supplies, while tariffs remain at nearly century-high levels. This dual shock threatens to stifle growth while stoking inflation, forcing central banks to maintain restrictive policy longer than anticipated. The firm advocates defensive positioning with underweight allocations to both equities and bonds, as traditional 60/40 portfolios face headwinds from elevated valuations and bonds' diminished safe-haven properties. Instead, they favor increased exposure to private markets including private credit and real assets, which offer stable returns and diversification benefits uncorrelated to public markets. Cash serves as a refuge amid heightened market turbulence. The strategy emphasizes portfolio resilience through non-traditional asset classes that can weather stagflationary pressures while traditional assets struggle with the dual headwinds of slower growth and persistent inflation.
Fiera Capital expects a stagflationary environment driven by Middle East geopolitical conflict and trade policy uncertainty, leading to defensive positioning with underweight equities and bonds while overweighting private markets and cash.
The firm maintains a 55% probability of stagflation as their base case, with reduced odds of soft landing (15%) and increased recession risk (15%). The macroeconomic narrative pivots from supply-driven shock toward growth-driven shock the longer the Middle East conflict duration. Oil prices likely to remain elevated for longer than most expect due to supply chain disruption and energy infrastructure damage.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15 2026 | 2026 Q1 | - | energy, Geopolitical, inflation, Middle East, oil, private markets, Stagflation, Trade Policy | - | Fiera Capital expects stagflation driven by Middle East energy disruption and trade tensions. Oil prices remain elevated despite potential ceasefire, while tariffs stoke inflation. The firm takes defensive positioning with underweight equities and bonds, favoring private credit and real assets for stable returns. Traditional 60/40 portfolios face headwinds as bonds lose safe-haven status amid persistent inflation pressures. |
| Dec 31 2025 | 2025 Q4 | - | Asset Management, Capital Allocation, global, infrastructure, private credit | - | Fiera Capital executed strategic transformation under new CEO leadership, growing AUM to C$167 billion while streamlining operations and enhancing infrastructure and private credit capabilities. Despite challenging market conditions with high capital costs and economic uncertainty, the firm delivered revenue growth and margin expansion through disciplined resource allocation and operational focus. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 |
OilOil prices soared 76.6% in Q1 due to Middle East conflict disrupting the Strait of Hormuz and choking off global supplies. Even with a swift resolution, physical damage to energy infrastructure and supply chains will keep prices elevated well above pre-conflict levels. The energy shock poses stagflationary risks with higher inflation and slower growth. |
Energy Crisis Supply Disruption Geopolitical Risk Stagflation Strait of Hormuz |
InflationCore inflation remains well above Federal Reserve targets, with tariff-related pressures yet to fully filter through and oil price spikes reducing scope for disinflation. Central banks face a dilemma between tackling inflation and supporting growth. The stagflationary environment suggests persistently higher inflation across scenarios. |
Central Banks Monetary Policy Tariffs Energy Prices Policy Dilemma | |
Private CreditNon-traditional income sources like private credit provide relatively stable returns, lower volatility and diversification benefits uncorrelated to public markets. In a challenging environment for traditional 60/40 portfolios, private credit offers attractive risk-adjusted returns across economic scenarios with expected returns of 5-7%. |
Alternative Assets Diversification Stable Returns Portfolio Allocation Risk Management | |
Trade PolicySweeping tariffs across trading partners threaten to hobble global growth and push up prices for consumers and businesses. The effective tariff rate in the US remains at its highest level in nearly a century. Uncertainty around USMCA review and unresolved US-China deliberations continue to dampen business sentiment and activity. |
Tariffs Global Trade USMCA Business Sentiment Economic Growth | |
| 2025 Q4 |
InfrastructureFiera Capital enhanced capabilities in infrastructure as a segment where they have deep expertise and privileged access to opportunities. This represents part of their strategic focus to concentrate capital and talent where competitive advantage is strongest. |
Infrastructure Private Markets Capabilities |
Private CreditThe firm enhanced capabilities in private credit alongside infrastructure, positioning in segments where they have deep expertise and privileged access to opportunities. This aligns with their strategy to focus where competitive advantage is strongest. |
Private Credit Alternative Investments Expertise |
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