| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
Q1 2026 saw mixed market performance with US indices declining while Canadian markets gained. The Dow fell 3.58%, S&P 500 dropped 4.63%, and Nasdaq declined 7.11%, while Canada's TSX rose 3.33%. Market volatility stemmed from two primary factors: AI disruption fears that led to valuation reassessments across sectors, and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East that disrupted oil supplies. Energy emerged as the standout sector with 37.91% gains, while Technology faced pressure with 7.57% declines. Economic indicators showed mixed signals with GDP growth slowing to 0.7% annualized versus 2.5% expectations, though retail sales and housing data provided some positive momentum. The Federal Reserve maintained rates at 3.5-3.75% with inflation expectations appearing well-anchored. Looking ahead, continued volatility is expected as markets process geopolitical developments and economic data, though historical perspective suggests significant market declines remain relatively uncommon events.
Market volatility in Q1 2026 was driven by AI disruption concerns and geopolitical tensions, but historical context suggests significant declines remain relatively rare occurrences.
Investors should prepare for continued volatility as markets sort through Middle East updates and economic reports. Historical perspective shows that significant market declines are relatively rare, with only 40 weeks of 5+ percent drops in the S&P 500 between 1980 and 2025.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 7 2026 | 2026 Q1 | - | energy, Geopolitical, Markets, materials, technology, volatility | - | Q1 2026 markets declined on AI disruption fears and Middle East tensions, with US indices falling 3-7% while Canadian markets gained 3.33%. Energy led sector performance while Technology lagged. Economic growth disappointed but inflation remained controlled. Continued volatility expected though historical data shows significant market declines are relatively rare occurrences. |
| Dec 30 2025 | 2025 Q4 | - | AI, Bubble, diversification, portfolio, risk management, technology | - | The manager addresses AI bubble concerns by advocating diversification over market timing. While big tech spends $400 billion on AI infrastructure, concentration risk exists with Magnificent Seven representing 35% of S&P 500. Rather than predicting bubbles, investors should maintain diversified portfolios across asset classes and geographies to withstand changing market leadership. |
| Oct 14 2025 | 2025 Q3 | - | AI, Federal Reserve, Rate Cuts, rebalancing, technology, Valuations | - | Fed rate cuts and Powell's valuation warnings create mixed signals, but historical data shows timing markets based on valuations fails. Tech stocks trade at 30x earnings on AI optimism while other sectors remain reasonably valued. Systematic rebalancing maintains proper allocation regardless of market levels, avoiding the costly mistake of selling expensive stocks that often get more expensive. |
| Jul 8 2025 | 2025 Q2 | - | AI, inflation, Markets, rates, tariffs, technology, Trade Policy | - | Markets surged in Q2 2025 with S&P 500 up 10.57% and Nasdaq gaining 17.75%, led by Technology's 22.64% advance. Trade policy volatility created initial turbulence but AI-related stocks and tariff pause drove recovery. Economic data showed mixed signals with GDP contraction and weak consumer spending offset by strong durable goods orders. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 |
AIArtificial intelligence concerns disrupted markets in February as investors feared AI would reset business models across industries. Traders grew concerned about AI's potential to disrupt a wide swath of industries, prompting reassessment of valuations in affected sectors. |
Technology Disruption Valuations Business Models Sectors |
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI investment boom compared to dot-com bubble with $400 billion in big tech spending for 2025 and $3 trillion infrastructure costs through 2028. Questions raised about whether technology will provide enough value to justify massive investments, citing OpenAI's $500 billion data center project against only $13 billion in 2025 revenue. |
Artificial Intelligence Technology Infrastructure Capex |
DiversificationEmphasized as key tool to navigate uncertainty and market leadership changes. Historical example shows small-cap and international stocks outperformed during dot-com bust when large growth stocks declined over 25%. Portfolio diversification across asset classes, sectors, company sizes and geographies recommended to balance risk and potential reward. |
Portfolio Risk Management Asset Allocation International | |
| 2025 Q3 |
RatesThe Federal Reserve cut rates by 0.25% in September, which typically makes equity investors optimistic as lower rates reduce borrowing costs and boost economic activity. However, Fed Chair Powell's subsequent comments about elevated equity valuations created mixed signals for investors. |
Interest Rates Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Rate Cuts |
AITech stocks have risen significantly on investor optimism about AI's potential to drive future earnings. The technology sector's elevated P/E ratio of over 30 reflects this AI-driven enthusiasm compared to other sectors trading in the teens. |
Artificial Intelligence Technology Earnings Growth Valuations | |
| 2025 Q2 |
Trade PolicyThe White House's new trade policy began in earnest on April 2, causing initial market volatility with global markets reacting negatively to tariff updates. A 90-day pause on specific tariffs announced April 9 led to the S&P 500's largest one-day gain in 17 years. Continued tariff discussions between the U.S. and China remained a key market driver throughout the quarter. |
Tariffs China Policy Volatility Trade |
AIArtificial intelligence-related stocks provided underlying strength to the market rally in June. A well-received quarterly corporate report from a mega-cap AI chipmaker helped drive market sentiment. The recovery in AI-related stocks contributed to both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting all-time highs during the quarter. |
Chipmaker Technology Rally Growth Innovation |
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