| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
Regency Wealth Management's Q1 2026 review emphasizes discipline over market hysteria as global markets faced geopolitical tensions and private credit stress. The S&P 500 declined 4.3% while small caps gained 3.5% as investors sought better valuations. The firm warns extensively about private credit markets, where massive capital growth has created unsustainable conditions leading to fund gates and liquidity crises. Major players like Blue Owl and BlackRock have restricted redemptions, with some offering liquidity at 65-70 cents on the dollar. Energy markets surged due to Iranian conflict, with oil reaching $101-118 per barrel and gold climbing 9.8% as a safe haven. The firm maintains conviction in quality large cap companies trading at a 21% discount to the S&P 500, providing downside protection. They advocate for boring is beautiful investing, focusing on companies with robust cash flows while remaining defensively positioned in fixed income and modestly underweight credit given expected tech debt issuance.
Regency Wealth Management advocates for a disciplined, quality-first investment approach that strips away emotion and focuses on fundamentals over sentiment, particularly as markets face hysteria from geopolitical tensions, private credit stress, and AI disruption.
The firm believes 2026 will be a year where boring is beautiful, as investors rotate into quality companies with robust cash flows rather than chase crowded trades. They expect continued opportunities in the valuation gap between broader markets and quality large cap companies.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8 2026 | 2026 Q1 | BCRED, OBDC | AI, energy, Geopolitical, inflation, private credit, Quality, Valuations | - | Regency warns against market hysteria driven by private credit stress and geopolitical tensions. Major credit funds are gating redemptions while energy prices surge due to Iranian conflict. The firm maintains discipline, focusing on quality large caps trading at 21% discount to S&P 500. Expects 2026 to favor boring fundamentals over crowded trades. |
| Jan 6 2026 | 2025 Q4 | - | Currency, diversification, Federal Reserve, gold, international, small caps, value | - | Regency's composite gained +20.2% annually, driven by diversified positioning across undervalued small caps and international equities. Gold's exceptional +65% performance demonstrates portfolio insurance value against currency risks. Fed rate cuts support broadening market leadership beyond tech concentration. The firm maintains disciplined allocation to attractively priced global assets while using gold as calculated hedge against volatility. |
| Oct 6 2025 | 2025 Q3 | AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA | AI, international, small caps, technology, Valuations, value | - | Regency Wealth sees AI concentration risk creating opportunities in undervalued segments. Small-caps trade at 25% discount to S&P 500, international equities at 34% discount. Firm maintains disciplined value approach, seeking quality companies below intrinsic value. Expects slower US growth but low recession risk, with rate cuts benefiting smaller companies. |
| Jul 1 2025 | 2025 Q2 | BAC, JPM | Consumer Sentiment, Economic Data, inflation, Market Volatility, rates, Trade Policy | - | Markets are reacting to headline anxiety rather than resilient economic fundamentals. Despite tariff-induced volatility and consumer sentiment at multi-year lows, hard data shows inflation at target levels and healthy corporate earnings growth. The firm maintains prudent optimism while emphasizing diversification, expecting one Fed rate cut this year and noting opportunities in international markets. |
| Apr 17 2025 | 2025 Q1 | ASML, BWXT, CHTR, CMCSA, CRM, MA, META, MU, NOW, NVDA, V | AI, Enterprise Software, growth, nuclear, semiconductors, technology, Trade Policy | - | Portfolio underperformed despite strong fundamentals as AI disruption fears pressured enterprise software holdings. Manager maintains conviction in ServiceNow and Salesforce as critical AI partners while adding Micron for structural memory demand. Trump administration's pro-growth policy framework creates favorable environment for technology leaders positioned around AI infrastructure and enterprise platforms. |
| Jan 9 2025 | 2024 Q4 | - | ABS, CMBS, credit, fixed income, Mortgage, rates, RMBS, Structured Credit | - | Easterly Income Opportunities Fund maintains defensive positioning in senior structured credit tranches while building cash reserves to 20% of portfolio. Non-Agency RMBS remains strongest performer despite tightening spreads, while CMBS shows bifurcated recovery excluding struggling office sector. Fund positioned to capitalize on future dislocations as corporate credit spreads sit at historically tight levels. |
| Oct 4 2024 | 2024 Q3 | ^GSPC, ^VIX | AI, Fed policy, Hedged Equity, technology, Valuations, volatility | - | Easterly Hedged Equity delivered 4.98% returns in Q3 with 70% market participation and half the volatility of the S&P 500. Fed rate cuts supported AI-driven mega-cap leadership, but narrow breadth and stretched valuations at 24x forward earnings create vulnerability. The fund's systematic volatility monetization and downside protection remain valuable amid elevated market risks. |
| Jul 5 2024 | 2024 Q2 | - | Behavioral Finance, Due Diligence, Generalist, Investment Philosophy, value | - | Nixon Capital emphasizes behavioral finance principles and intellectual humility in their generalist investment approach. They apply Kahneman's cognitive bias research to avoid overconfidence, maintain rigorous due diligence across sectors, and focus on high-quality businesses with strong management. The firm views investing as a continuous improvement process, never complete but always striving for perfection. |
| Apr 11 2024 | 2024 Q1 | ABNB, ASML, AVGO, BSX, BX, FICO, INTU, ISRG, LLY, MSCI, NFLX, NOW, NVDA, SHOP, SNPS, SPGI, SPOT, TDG, V, VRTX | AI, Cloud, growth, healthcare, large cap, semiconductors, technology | - | Edgewood's concentrated large cap growth portfolio underperformed in Q3 but maintains strong conviction in AI infrastructure and applications theme. The firm used market volatility to add to existing positions while senior team members invested personal capital, demonstrating confidence in their 22-stock portfolio of high-quality growth companies with durable competitive advantages. |
| Jan 4 2024 | 2023 Q4 | ABNB, ASML, AVGO, BSX, BX, FICO, INTU, ISRG, LLY, MSCI, NFLX, NOW, NVDA, SHOP, SNPS, SPGI, TDG, TTD, V, VRTX | AI, growth, healthcare, large cap, Quality, technology |
BSX AVGO FICO |
Edgewood delivered strong Q2 performance (15.9% net) led by technology holdings NVIDIA and Netflix. The firm initiated three new positions in Boston Scientific, Broadcom, and Fair Isaac, capitalizing on market volatility. With the U.S. economy expanding and AI spending driving secular growth, Edgewood's concentrated portfolio of 22 high-quality growth companies is well-positioned for continued outperformance. |
| Oct 6 2023 | 2023 Q3 | - | AI, Fed policy, inflation, productivity, rates, small caps, tariffs, Trade Policy | - | Q3 2025 delivered broad-based market gains driven by AI productivity revolution, aggressive fiscal stimulus, Fed rate cuts, and deregulation. Corporate profits surged 12% with sustained margins despite tariff headwinds. Small caps and international stocks offer compelling relative value opportunities. Key risks include inflation persistence above Fed targets and potential economic over-stimulation. Maintain equity exposure while managing abundance-to-excess transition risk. |
| Jul 17 2023 | 2023 Q2 | - | Cost of Equity, earnings, interest rates, P/E Ratio, S&P 500, valuation | - | The S&P 500's elevated 23.46x P/E ratio reflects an Implied Cost of Equity of 7.4%, placing markets in historically dangerous upper valuation bands. With the framework combining risk-free rates and equity risk premiums to explain valuation extremes since 1963, further upside now depends on earnings growth rather than multiple expansion. |
| Apr 6 2023 | 2023 Q1 | ACAD.ST, ALLFG.L, BFSA.MC, CELL.MI, DFS.L, DOM.L, EXPG, HEAD.L, INCH.L, LDC.PA, MIDW.L, MONDADORI.MI, NOEJ.DE, OIE.L, PSG.MC, RHI.L, RITN.SW, SESA.MI, TGS.OL | discount, Europe, Patience, Quality, small caps, value |
DPZ.L RIEN.SW |
EQUAM Global Value's Q3 underperformance reflects temporary headwinds from avoiding banks and focusing on abandoned European small-caps. The 45-stock portfolio offers 112% upside potential at attractive valuations while markets trade at record highs. Recent weakness in quality holdings like Domino's Pizza and industrial names creates enhanced opportunity in a risk-laden macro environment. |
| Jan 5 2023 | 2022 Q4 | - | - | - | |
| Oct 5 2022 | 2022 Q3 | - | - | - | |
| Jul 11 2022 | 2022 Q2 | - | - | - | |
| Apr 4 2022 | 2022 Q1 | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 |
Private CreditThe firm warns that private credit has grown too big too quickly, with massive capital chasing too few quality deals. They expect yields and spreads to compress as rates fall, creating stress for private companies relying on this funding. Evidence includes major funds gating redemptions and offering liquidity at 65-70 cents on the dollar. |
Credit Stress Liquidity Rates |
AIAI is mentioned as part of the market hysteria and as a disruptive force to legacy software business models. The firm notes that much private credit has been lent to software companies whose business models now face potential AI disruption. |
Enterprise Software Disruption | |
OilWTI and Brent Crude Oil surged to $101 and $118 per barrel respectively due to war in Iran, fueling supply-side concerns and disrupting global shipping lanes. Rising energy costs are contributing to inflationary pressures. |
Inflation Iran Energy Trading | |
GoldGold acted as a primary safe-haven asset, climbing 9.8% to end the quarter at $4,742 per ounce and reaching as high as $5,417 per ounce during the quarter amid geopolitical tensions. |
Safe Haven Geopolitical Risk | |
| 2025 Q4 |
GoldGold delivered exceptional performance with +65% returns for the year, driven by central bank buying, geopolitical risk, and Federal Reserve rate cuts. The firm maintains a modest allocation as portfolio insurance against currency devaluation and global volatility, viewing it as a globally accepted currency that cannot be devalued by any single nation's policy. |
Gold Currency Inflation Central Banks Geopolitical |
RatesThe Federal Reserve delivered two quarter-point rate cuts in October and December, signaling a more dovish stance amid easing inflation concerns and a softening labor market. The 10-year Treasury yield ended unchanged at approximately 4.17%, with rate cuts expected to alleviate pressure on corporate margins and consumer debt. |
Fed Interest Rates Monetary Policy Treasury Inflation | |
Small CapsSmall cap companies participated more modestly in the rally, with the S&P 600 Small Cap Index returning only +1.3% for the quarter and +4.2% for the full year. The firm sees value in small cap equities which remain attractively priced relative to U.S. large cap counterparts. |
Small Cap Value S&P 600 Valuation | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIAI continues to dominate the landscape with companies in the Magnificent 7 reporting significant earnings growth credited to AI adoption. However, elevated valuations in AI stocks may be inconsistent with an economy positioned for slowing growth, creating concentration risk and potential for sharp selloffs if capital expenditures slow. |
Technology Valuations Growth Earnings |
ValueThe firm identifies compelling opportunities in undervalued segments, with small-cap companies trading at a 25% discount to the S&P 500 and international equities at a 34% discount. Their strategy focuses on quality companies trading at discounts to intrinsic value regardless of size or geography. |
Small Caps Discount International Quality | |
| 2025 Q2 |
Trade PolicyPresident Trump announced reciprocal tariffs with a 90-day pause for most countries while maintaining higher tariffs on Chinese imports. The tariff announcement caused significant market volatility with the S&P 500 dropping over 12% in four trading days. Markets are digesting the implications of trade policy uncertainty on corporate earnings and economic growth. |
Tariffs China Trade War Volatility Uncertainty |
InflationConsumer inflation expectations from surveys show readings north of 7% for the next 12 months, while actual PCE inflation printed at 2.1% year-over-year, one of the lowest readings in years and in line with the Fed's 2% target. The disconnect between survey expectations and hard data highlights the importance of distinguishing between soft and hard economic indicators. |
PCE Expectations Survey Fed Target | |
RatesThe Fed is expected to remain data dependent and assess trade policy implications before making rate cuts. Base case scenario shifted from 2-3 rate cuts in 2025 to potentially one cut this year with a possible second cut at year-end. Bond yields have been volatile as investors digest Washington's new tax package and fiscal deficit implications. |
Fed Rate Cuts Yields Monetary Policy | |
| 2025 Q1 |
AIAI is driving massive structural demand for high bandwidth memory and data center infrastructure. The manager believes AI will prove additive to enterprise software companies like ServiceNow and Salesforce despite current market skepticism about AI replacing traditional software licenses. |
Data Centers Enterprise Software Memory Productivity |
Enterprise SoftwareMarket consensus has turned against enterprise software companies amid fears that AI will allow Fortune 2000 companies to bypass traditional software vendors. The manager maintains conviction that platform companies like ServiceNow and Salesforce will remain critical partners for AI-driven solutions. |
SaaS CRM Workflow Automation Subscription | |
SemiconductorsASML maintains a monopoly in extreme ultraviolet lithography equipment essential for high-end chip production. Micron is positioned to gain market share in high bandwidth memory as AI data center demand creates more stable pricing dynamics in historically cyclical memory markets. |
Memory Semi Equipment GPUs Foundries | |
NuclearBWX Technologies benefits from massive growth in nuclear-related backlog as the Trump administration takes an all-of-the-above energy approach. Nuclear power is viewed as essential to meet the 100 gigawatts of additional capacity needed over the next five years to support AI data centers. |
Power Equipment Energy Storage Grid Upgrade | |
Trade PolicyThe Trump administration has rewritten international trade terms through tariffs and manufacturing investment commitments. New trade deals, investment commitments, and tax policy represent a massive bet on growth that the manager believes will be conducive to strong equity market performance. |
Industrial Policy Onshoring Growth | |
| 2024 Q4 |
MortgageNon-Agency RMBS remains one of the strongest areas within structured credit, benefiting from healthy housing market, limited new supply, and attractive yields. New issuance through Q3 2025 reached about $161 billion, matching the total for all of 2024. Credit performance remains stable with delinquencies highest in 2023-vintage non-QM loans but 2025 deals tracking better. |
RMBS Non-QM Prime Jumbo HELOC CRT |
Commercial Real EstateCMBS market remains split between sectors showing clear recovery and those still struggling, particularly office properties. Refinancing success rate for conduit CMBS loans rose to 73% in Q3 2025, though for office loans it remains much weaker at only around 40%. Office loan delinquencies stand at 14% in conduit deals with loss severities climbing to about 60%. |
CMBS Office Conduit Special Servicing Refinancing | |
Credit StressABS market experienced turbulence from Tricolor Holdings bankruptcy after uncovering large-scale double-pledging fraud affecting 40% of its 70,000 auto loans. Subprime auto credit shows broader weakness with net losses rising to 9.33% and delinquencies over 60 days reaching 6.43%, near record highs. Economic pressures on lower-income borrowers whose wages struggle to keep up with inflation. |
Subprime Auto Fraud Delinquencies Consumer Credit ABS | |
RatesFederal Reserve delivered its first rate cut of the year in September, trimming rates by 0.25% as a risk-management move after weaker job market data. Treasury yields declined slightly with 10-year ending quarter at 4.15%. Manager expects yield curve to flatten near term with longer-term Treasury yields likely to decline as unemployment rises and economic growth slows. |
Fed Cuts Treasury Yields Curve Flattening SOFR Rate Policy | |
| 2024 Q3 |
AIArtificial intelligence continues to drive productivity gains and support corporate earnings that exceeded expectations. AI-driven productivity gains are supporting the bull market case alongside mega-cap technology leadership. |
Productivity Technology Earnings |
VolatilityElevated volatility persisted alongside strong index performance, with the CBOE Volatility Index curve remaining steep. The fund's systematic approach allowed monetization of volatility opportunities while maintaining protection against potential declines. |
VIX Hedging Protection Monetization | |
| 2024 Q1 |
AIEdgewood maintains a comprehensive AI framework spanning infrastructure, proprietary data applications, and productivity enhancements. The firm sees AI broadening beyond infrastructure to applications and productivity layers, with 28% of the portfolio in AI infrastructure buildout companies. |
Infrastructure Applications Productivity Computing Data |
SemiconductorsPortfolio includes key semiconductor enablers like NVIDIA's accelerating product releases driving exponential performance improvements, ASML's lithography machines enabling AI chip manufacturing advancements, and Broadcom's leadership in hyperscale custom chip design. |
Chips Manufacturing Performance Design Equipment | |
CloudServiceNow targets $1B in AI-powered annual contract value by 2026 with consumption-based monetization. The portfolio benefits from cloud infrastructure buildout supporting AI workloads and data center expansion. |
Infrastructure Monetization Workloads Expansion Services | |
Data CentersBlackstone has a $125B pipeline of datacenter assets under development with tens of billions in related infrastructure including power generation and electrification that will likely contribute to future returns. |
Development Infrastructure Power Assets Pipeline | |
| 2023 Q4 |
AIAI spending remains a robust secular trend with significant growth opportunities. The portfolio is well-positioned to capitalize on this long-term opportunity through holdings in semiconductor and technology companies benefiting from AI datacenter buildouts and custom silicon demand. |
Semiconductors Datacenter Custom Silicon Hyperscalers Compute |
Medical DevicesMedical technology represents an attractive healthcare segment with procedure-based sales driving durable revenue streams. Advances in technology enable safer, more effective treatments with regulatory approval processes and scaled distribution creating high barriers to entry. |
Minimally Invasive Electrophysiology Cardiovascular Procedures Innovation | |
| 2023 Q3 |
AIHyperscaler capital expenditure growth has been booming, soaring 75% in 2025, with leading US technology companies spending tens of billions on GPUs and AI model development. AI enthusiasts believe we are on the cusp of a paradigmatic shift upward in productivity that will transform the economy and reshape work. AI-related stocks have accounted for 75% of S&P 500 returns, 80% of earnings growth, and 90% of capital spending growth since ChatGPT launched. |
Productivity Hyperscalers GPUs Capital Expenditure Technology |
Trade PolicyTrade policy continues to follow a somewhat erratic path, but uncertainty around tariffs has diminished notably. The announcement of trade deals suggests the overall tariff rate will come in at approximately 14%, well below initial indications. Tariff receipts have been rising substantially, with monthly collections reaching $31 billion in August and September versus less than $7 billion average in 2023-2024. |
Tariffs Trade Deals Uncertainty Import Costs Policy | |
RatesThe Federal Open Market Committee cut its Fed funds rate by one quarter percentage point in September and signaled two additional rate cuts by year end. The Fed is poised to end quantitative tightening and has shifted focus to its full employment mandate. Lower rates stimulate the economy directly by lowering interest expenses and indirectly by creating a lower threshold for returns on investment projects. |
Fed Funds Quantitative Tightening Employment Mandate Interest Expenses Investment Threshold | |
Small CapsRelative valuations for US small cap stocks are striking, with the valuation gap versus US large cap stocks the widest it has been since the 1990s. Small cap stocks are more sensitive to interest rates, more cyclical in nature, bigger beneficiaries of lower interest rates, and more domestically focused, thus beneficiaries of the policy set-up. After a long stretch of under-performance, small cap stocks may be poised to lead the charge. |
Valuation Gap Interest Rate Sensitivity Cyclical Domestic Focus Under-performance | |
InflationCore Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation rose 2.9% over the past 12 months, significantly higher than the Fed's 2% target. The last time core PCE was at target was March 2021. There are concerns about tariff-related inflation impacts, though most economists believe tariffs are a one-time price adjustment rather than contributing to ongoing persistent inflation. |
Core PCE Fed Target Tariff Impact Price Adjustment Persistent | |
| 2023 Q2 |
ValuationThe S&P 500 P/E ratio of 23.46x ranks among the highest since 1963, with the Implied Cost of Equity at 7.4% placing markets in the upper valuation bands. Further upside depends more on earnings growth than multiple expansion unless interest rates ease or risk premiums compress. |
P/E Ratio Earnings Yield Valuation Metrics Market Multiples Fair Value |
RatesInterest rates directly correlate to P/E multiples through the cost of equity calculation. The current 30-year rate near 4.73% combined with a 2.66% equity risk premium creates an Implied Cost of Equity of 7.4%, historically associated with market peaks. |
Interest Rates Risk-Free Rate Cost of Equity Yield Curve Fed Policy | |
EarningsWith the S&P 500 trading at elevated valuations and the Implied Cost of Equity near historic peak levels, earnings growth becomes the key driver of further market upside rather than multiple expansion. Forward EPS estimates of $285 support current levels. |
Earnings Growth EPS Forward Earnings Earnings Revisions Growth Execution | |
| 2023 Q1 |
ValueFund invests in companies trading at significant discounts to intrinsic value with upside potential of 112%. Portfolio comprises 45 companies at attractive multiples with high-quality businesses and low debt levels. Manager emphasizes patience and long-term investment in sound businesses at excellent prices. |
Discount Intrinsic Value Multiples Quality Patience |
Small CapsFund focuses on European small and medium-sized companies, a market sector that has been abandoned by investors. Currently generating idea generation efforts in the European Small & Mid Cap arena. Performance negatively affected by exposure to this underperforming segment. |
European SMID Abandoned Underperforming Opportunity |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Regency Wealth Management | DPZ.L | Domino's Pizza Group PLC | Consumer Discretionary | Restaurants | Bull | London Stock Exchange | asset-light, Consumer Discretionary, franchise expansion, free cash flow yield, market share, Master Franchisee, Pizza Delivery, royalties, UK | Login |
| Sep 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Regency Wealth Management | RIEN.SW | Rieter Holding AG | Industrials | Industrial Machinery | Bull | SIX Swiss Exchange | acquisition, arbitrage, Barmag, Capital Increase, EBITDA multiple, industrial machinery, leverage, Switzerland, Textile Machinery | Login |
| Jun 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Regency Wealth Management | BSX | Boston Scientific Corp. | Health Care Equipment & Supplies | Health Care Equipment | Bull | NYSE | Atrial Fibrillation, cardiovascular, Electrophysiology, growth, Healthcare Equipment, innovation, M&A, Medical devices, Minimally Invasive | Login |
| Jun 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Regency Wealth Management | AVGO | Broadcom Inc. | Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment | Semiconductors | Bull | NASDAQ | AI, capital return, custom silicon, hyperscalers, infrastructure software, M&A, Networking, Private Cloud, semiconductors, Vmware | Login |
| Jun 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Regency Wealth Management | FICO | Fair Isaac Corp. | Software | Application Software | Bull | NYSE | auto loans, Consumer credit, credit scoring, Financial Analytics, Mortgage, Pricing power, recurring revenue, Regulatory Moat, share repurchases | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| BCRED | Blackstone raised their 5% gate to 7% and covered the remaining 0.9% with a personal capital infusion by Blackstone's senior management team. |
| OBDC | Fund is Gated/in Liquidation: quarterly redemptions were halted. Instead, Blue Owl is selling $1.4b in assets to return approx. 30% of NAV ratably to all shareholders. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
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| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
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