Investor Summary
Fund Strategy
FUND PERFORMANCE AS OF 31st March 2026
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
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| - | - | - |
Miller Wealth Management's Q1 2026 letter addresses two key market developments: the Iran conflict's impact on energy markets and growing private credit concerns. The war disrupted over 20% of global oil flows, pushing crude above $100 and reigniting inflation fears, forcing central banks to reconsider rate cut timelines. However, the managers emphasize historical perspective, noting markets have weathered similar geopolitical shocks before and are typically driven more by earnings growth than conflicts. On private credit, they argue the rapid growth represents risk migration from banks to alternative channels rather than new systemic risk, with today's banking system better capitalized than in 2008. Three key themes will influence markets: the conflict's duration, higher-for-longer interest rates, and corporate earnings resilience. The managers view current volatility as uncomfortable but normal, maintaining conviction-based positioning while monitoring developments. They stress that markets are forward-looking and adaptive, often overreacting short-term to uncertainty before processing new information effectively.
Despite geopolitical disruption and private credit concerns, markets have historically been shaped more by earnings growth and innovation than single conflicts, with current conditions representing normal market volatility rather than structural threats.
Markets are forward-looking and adaptive, processing uncertainty quickly and often overreacting in the short term. The managers expect some dispersion in returns and occasional stress in private lending as a normal part of credit cycles, not structural failure.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10 2026 | 2026 Q1 | - | energy, Geopolitical, inflation, Iran, oil, private credit | - | Q1 2026 brought geopolitical disruption via Iran conflict pushing oil above $100 and private credit growth concerns. Miller Wealth Management maintains historical perspective, noting markets typically weather such shocks through earnings growth rather than single events. They position with conviction despite volatility, viewing current conditions as normal market adaptation rather than structural threats. |
| Jan 6 2026 | 2025 Q4 | BND, VOO, VXUS | diversification, growth, rates, Valuations, volatility | - | Miller Wealth Management maintains steady positioning amid Q4 volatility, highlighting resilient U.S. economic growth and solid equity gains for 2024. With elevated valuations and uncertainty around future Fed rate cuts and inflation trends, the firm emphasizes disciplined diversification across asset classes to navigate market conditions while staying aligned with long-term investment goals. |
| Oct 14 2025 | 2025 Q3 | BND, VOO, VXUS | Bonds, healthcare, international, rates, technology | - | Miller Wealth Management reports solid Q3 2024 returns with U.S. large caps up 5.10% and international stocks gaining 6.78%. Technology and healthcare led performance amid continued AI enthusiasm. Federal Reserve rate cuts beginning with potential 100 basis point reduction by 2025 could boost corporate profitability. Firm monitors global risks while maintaining core investment convictions. |
| Jul 7 2025 | 2025 Q2 | - | AI, defense, energy, Geopolitical, Recovery, technology | - | Markets rebounded strongly from April selloffs to hit all-time highs, driven by AI adoption, energy boom, medical advances, and strong consumer spending. Despite geopolitical tensions and high rates, unique technological and economic factors support performance. Key upcoming catalysts include Fed rate cuts, trade negotiations, and new federal legislation impacts. |
| Jun 10 2025 | 2025 Q1 | 1928.HK, 2282.HK, AIR.PA, ALD.AX, AZJ.AX, CNI.AX, COL.AX, CS1.AX, CXB.MC, EDV.AX, FCX, FDV.AX, GMEXICOB.MX, HSBA.L, LLOY.L, MSCI, NEE, NEM, NST.AX, QUB.AX, TECK, WYNN | AI, commodities, Copper, European Banking, gold, Macau, Onshoring, value | - | PM Capital's Global Companies Fund outperformed in Q1 FY2026 through disciplined exposure to undervalued cyclical sectors. Gold and copper positions drove returns as commodity fundamentals strengthened, while European banks and Macau gaming recovered strongly. The fund maintains contrarian positioning in areas with valuation support, avoiding overvalued megatrend narratives despite market strength extending from April lows. |
| Jan 13 2025 | 2024 Q4 | AAPL, AMD, AMZN, ASML, GOOGL, INPST, MELI, NFLX, NIO, NU, RBRK, SE, TXN, UBER, V | Cloud, E-Commerce, growth, Latin America, payments, technology |
INPST MELI RBRK V |
Wolf of Harcourt Street outperformed with +23.4% YTD returns by focusing on platform businesses with structural advantages. Added to InPost, Mercado Libre, and Rubrik during market weakness. Top performers include NIO (+75%) and SE (+68%). Manager maintains cautiously optimistic outlook while planning to increase cash and reduce holdings to 15 positions. |
| Aug 22 2024 | 2024 Q2 | ASML, HD, INPST.L, MELI, META, NIO, NU, SE, UBER | E-Commerce, Electric Vehicles, global, growth, semiconductors, technology |
UBER INPST.L SE ASML |
Strong Q2 performance of +20.4% driven by technology growth positions including Uber, Sea Limited, and MercadoLibre. Manager added to Uber and InPost on continued execution strength. Portfolio focuses on undervalued growth companies with network effects and reinvestment runways. Maintaining cautious stance with 4% cash following outperformance. |
| Apr 26 2024 | 2024 Q1 | ABBV, AMZN, ASML, INPST, MELI, META, MSFT, NIO, NU, SE, TSM, UBER, V | AI, E-Commerce, global, large cap, semiconductors, technology |
ASML META SE NU |
Wolf of Harcourt Street outperformed the S&P 500 by 570 basis points in Q1, delivering positive returns during market volatility. The manager added to ASML and Meta positions during corrections, while Sea Limited led performance with 23% gains. Portfolio resilience reflects focused technology exposure and disciplined strategy execution, with volatility creating compelling opportunities in quality businesses. |
| Oct 1 2023 | 2023 Q3 | - | commodities, financials, fixed income, FX, healthcare, Long/Short, Multi-Strategy, Systematic | - | Brummer Multi-Strategy gained 1.5% in September through diversified systematic and discretionary strategies. Long/short equity drove performance with US TMT and European financials outperforming, while systematic trend following contributed positively despite commodity headwinds. Portfolio managers rebalanced equity risk allocation in early October amid global monetary easing and China's major stimulus package. |
| Jul 1 2023 | 2023 Q2 | - | China, Debt, fiscal policy, Geopolitical, Germany, inflation, tariffs, technology | - | Strong YTD equity performance masks structural challenges as easy money era ends. US faces unsustainable debt burden at 125-130% of GDP while 15% tariffs threaten growth. Multiple inflation risks from trade shocks and fiscal loosening. Germany's fiscal stimulus and China's stabilization provide regional bright spots, while technology productivity gains offer potential solutions to developed market constraints. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 |
Private CreditThe rapid growth of private credit markets has drawn attention with concerns about transparency, liquidity, and underwriting standards. However, private credit represents a migration of lending from traditional banks to alternative channels rather than new risk. The banking system is better capitalized than in 2008 and less directly exposed, with institutional voices noting that while risks exist, private credit is unlikely to pose systemic risk. |
Credit Stress Capital Markets Risk Appetite |
OilThe outbreak of war involving Iran in late February disrupted global energy markets, with more than 20% of global oil flows disrupted due to instability around the Strait of Hormuz. This pushed crude prices above $100 per barrel and reignited inflation concerns, complicating central bank policy decisions between inflation and growth. |
Energy Trading Inflation Iran | |
| 2025 Q4 |
RatesFederal Reserve cut interest rates twice during Q4 by a total of 0.50%. The Federal Reserve committee continues to weigh inflation and unemployment risk to determine appropriate monetary policy. Markets are focused on the pace of future rate cuts entering 2025. |
Federal Reserve Interest Rates Monetary Policy |
InflationThe Federal Reserve committee continues to weigh inflation and unemployment risk to determine the appropriate monetary policy. Inflation trends are a key focus for markets entering 2025. |
Inflation Federal Reserve Monetary Policy | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIInvestor enthusiasm has remained high around artificial intelligence and cloud infrastructure, with the largest companies investing substantial dollars into AI progress. The firm is watching developments in a quickly changing AI and digital landscape. |
Cloud Technology Investment Infrastructure |
| 2025 Q2 |
AIMost companies have adopted AI in some form. The largest U.S. companies are investing billions into AI and are already benefiting from automation, productivity, and personal assistance services. |
Automation Productivity Technology |
EnergyDue to technological innovation, high energy prices, and global demand growth, more energy sources are needed. This flows job creation, infrastructure development, and economic growth. |
Energy Transition Infrastructure Growth | |
Defense SpendingWhile the U.S. has pulled back from arms support in Ukraine, European countries have picked up the ticket and defense companies are benefiting from it. |
NATO Defense Europe | |
| 2025 Q1 |
CopperFund maintains heavy exposure to copper producers including Teck Resources, Freeport-McMoRan, and Grupo Mexico. Copper prices rose 5% in September following major accident at Freeport's Grasberg mine, shifting market expectations from surplus to deficit heading into 2026. Several high-profile supply issues this year have supported copper fundamentals. |
Copper Miners Supply Disruption Deficit Industrial Metals Mining |
GoldGold positions benefited from 17% rise in gold price to all-time high of US$3,873. Newmont gained 45% while Northern Star rallied 26% since purchase. Despite record gold prices, investor ownership of gold equities remains low, with valuations still attractive and capital returns competitive relative to broader market. |
Gold Miners Record Prices Undervalued Capital Returns Low Ownership | |
European BankingEuropean bank positions delivered strong results with steeper yield curve and growing confidence in increased infrastructure and defence spending driving economic activity. Caixabank rose 22% yet still trades below 11 times earnings, with plans for €12bn shareholder returns over 2025-27 equivalent to roughly 20% of market cap. |
Yield Curve Infrastructure Spending Defense Spending Shareholder Returns Undervalued | |
MacauMacau recovery accelerated with Wynn Resorts, Sands China and MGM China all up more than 30%. Industry-wide entertainment and leisure revenue growth has accelerated through the year, driving renewed investor optimism. Wynn Macau raised US$1bn via notes maturing in 2034, signalling reduced regulatory risk concerns. |
Gaming Recovery Revenue Growth Regulatory Risk Entertainment | |
AIAI investment cycle highlighted by partnerships among OpenAI, Nvidia and Oracle drives market narratives as one of the megatrends. However, discussions of AI themes rarely address valuation or return on invested capital, which the manager views as cautionary. |
Investment Cycle Partnerships Valuation Concerns Return On Capital Megatrends | |
OnshoringUS reshoring and infrastructure investment identified as key theme supporting market strength. Surge in US reshoring and infrastructure investment represents one of the megatrends driving market narratives, though valuation concerns persist around these themes. |
Infrastructure Investment Megatrends Market Narratives Valuation Investment | |
| 2024 Q4 |
E-commercePortfolio includes major e-commerce platforms like Mercado Libre expanding across Latin America with new wholesale platform and digital health services. InPost continues UK expansion with Aldi partnership and Post Office trials for parcel lockers. |
Marketplaces Logistics Digital Payments |
CloudRubrik represents a high-growth cloud software business focused on data protection and backup. Despite recent volatility, the company posted strong quarterly results with accelerating revenue growth and positive free cash flow. |
SaaS Data Protection Enterprise Software | |
PaymentsVisa represents a low-risk payment processing investment despite antitrust concerns. Mercado Pago continues expanding with 1M POS terminals in Mexico, rivaling traditional banking infrastructure in a largely unbanked market. |
Payment Processing FinTech Digital Payments | |
| 2024 Q2 |
E-commerceInPost is disrupting European e-commerce logistics with its locker network expansion. The UK expansion is showing strong execution with major partnerships like Debenhams Group, handling up to £1.8 billion in gross merchandise volume. |
Logistics Europe Lockers Delivery Partnerships |
Electric VehiclesUber is positioned to benefit from autonomous vehicle industry fragmentation through partnerships with manufacturers like Volkswagen. The company serves as the operating layer connecting various robotaxi suppliers with its distribution network and infrastructure advantage. |
Autonomous Robotaxi Distribution Infrastructure Partnerships | |
SemiconductorsASML is positioned for an AI-fueled rebound with surging demand for EUV and High-NA tools. S&P Global projects revenue growth from €32 billion in 2025 to €52 billion by 2030, potentially reaching EPS of over €50. |
EUV High-NA AI Revenue Growth Valuation | |
| 2024 Q1 |
AIMeta is highlighted as one of the few companies already seeing tangible benefits from its investments in AI. The manager views AI as a key driver of Meta's value proposition and competitive advantage. |
Artificial Intelligence Technology Meta Investment Benefits |
SemiconductorsASML maintains its monopoly position controlling 90% of the global lithography market and remains the sole supplier of High-NA EUV systems. TSMC's $100 billion U.S. investment will require more ASML machines, while Chinese competition remains unproven. |
ASML Lithography EUV TSMC Manufacturing | |
E-commerceSea Limited has performed exceptionally well with all three business segments now profitable and self-sufficient while continuing to accelerate top-line revenue growth. The company remains immune to U.S. tariff concerns. |
Sea Limited Profitability Revenue Growth Digital Asia | |
| 2023 Q3 |
RatesCentral banks globally eased monetary policy with the ECB cutting rates and the Fed delivering a steeper than expected 50 basis point cut, signaling the beginning of the end of the high interest rate regime. Bond yields moved lower overall but to differing degrees across regions. |
Central Banks Fed ECB Monetary Policy Bond Yields |
ChinaThe PBOC and Politburo unveiled China's largest stimulus package since the pandemic, consisting of rate cuts and lowered reserve requirement ratios for banks. This caused the Hang Seng and Shanghai composite indices to skyrocket into double-digit territory in a matter of days. |
PBOC Stimulus Hang Seng Shanghai Composite Reserve Requirements | |
| 2023 Q2 |
TariffsThe effective tariff rate is around 15% based on current negotiations, with studies showing potential GDP impact ranging from -0.8% to -1.4% depending on implementation and retaliation scenarios. This represents a key policy driver for Q3 outlook. |
Trade Policy GDP Economic Impact |
DebtUS debt burden projected at 125-130% of GDP, well above the 90% threshold considered sustainable. Debt servicing costs now consume over 3% of US GDP, creating fiscal constraints as easy money era ends and borrowing costs rise. |
Fiscal Policy GDP Interest Rates | |
InflationMultiple inflationary pressures identified including trade-driven supply shocks, fiscal loosening, supply-side constraints from migration clampdown, and potential AI-productivity surge creating a Goldilocks scenario that could reignite inflation. |
Supply Shocks Fiscal Policy Productivity |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2025 | Fund Letters | Miller Wealth Management | V | Visa | Information Technology | Data Processing & Outsourced Services | Bull | NYSE | Antitrust Resilience, defensive, financial services, low risk, network effects, payment processing, regulatory navigation | Login |
| Oct 1, 2025 | Fund Letters | Miller Wealth Management | MELI | Mercado Libre | Consumer Discretionary | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Bull | NASDAQ | digital payments, e-commerce, Financial Inclusion, Fintech, Latin America, marketplace, platform, Political Resilience, POS Terminals | Login |
| Oct 1, 2025 | Fund Letters | Miller Wealth Management | INPST | InPost | Industrials | Air Freight & Logistics | Bull | Warsaw Stock Exchange | Automated, e-commerce, Last-mile Delivery, Logistics, Network Density, Parcel Lockers, strategic investment, UK Expansion | Login |
| Oct 1, 2025 | Fund Letters | Miller Wealth Management | RBRK | Rubrik | Information Technology | Systems Software | Bull | NYSE | Cloud software, Data Management, Enterprise software, Free Cash Flow, High Growth, SaaS, Subscription ARR, Valuation reset | Login |
| Jul 2, 2025 | Fund Letters | Miller Wealth Management | ASML | ASML Holding NV | Information Technology | Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment | Bull | NASDAQ | AI infrastructure, Capital equipment, Euv, Lithography, Monopoly, semiconductors, technology | Login |
| Jul 2, 2025 | Fund Letters | Miller Wealth Management | INPST.L | InPost SA | Industrials | Air Freight & Logistics | Bull | LSE | Automated, Disruptor, E-commerce logistics, European expansion, growth, Last-mile Delivery, Parcel Lockers | Login |
| Jul 2, 2025 | Fund Letters | Miller Wealth Management | UBER | Uber Technologies Inc | Consumer Discretionary | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Bull | NYSE | autonomous vehicles, mobility, network effects, platform, Ride Sharing, robotaxi, technology | Login |
| Jul 2, 2025 | Fund Letters | Miller Wealth Management | SE | Sea Limited | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | NYSE | Digital Entertainment, e-commerce, Fintech, Growth investing, margin expansion, revenue acceleration, Southeast Asia | Login |
| Apr 1, 2025 | Fund Letters | Miller Wealth Management | META | Meta Platforms Inc. | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | NASDAQ | Artificial Intelligence, forward earnings, market correction, social media, technology, Value | Login |
| Apr 1, 2025 | Fund Letters | Miller Wealth Management | NU | Nu Holdings Ltd. | Financials | Consumer Finance | Bull | NYSE | Brazil, Credit risk, Currency, digital banking, Fintech, Latin America, PIX, Value | Login |
| Apr 1, 2025 | Fund Letters | Miller Wealth Management | SE | Sea Limited | Consumer Discretionary | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Bull | NYSE | e-commerce, Fintech, Gaming, profitability, Revenue Growth, Southeast Asia, Tariff Immunity | Login |
| Apr 1, 2025 | Fund Letters | Miller Wealth Management | ASML | ASML Holding N.V. | Information Technology | Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment | Bull | NASDAQ | China, Euv, geopolitical, Lithography, Manufacturing Equipment, Monopoly, semiconductors, technology, TSMC | Login |
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