Expect At Least Two Market Corrections In 2026 | Lance Roberts
Summary
Market Outlook: Expect near-term volatility with potential 3–5% pullbacks and at least two 5% corrections this year, but momentum, earnings, and $1.2T in buybacks remain supportive.
Value vs Growth: A new live factor-rotation model tilts toward value amid recent outperformance, while core portfolios remain growth-heavy and adjust as relative strength shifts.
Defense Stocks: Favorable policy tailwinds and rising budgets support the Aerospace & Defense group; RTX is a core holding with plans to add on pullbacks, though sector valuations are rich and volatile.
Energy Stocks: Near-term view is cautious with potential oil in the $40s before better entries in integrated majors like Exxon and Chevron; watch supply catalysts from Iran/Russia and OPEC cuts.
AI Infrastructure: Robust AI capex and data-center power needs are a sustained theme, with moves toward nuclear and behind-the-meter natural gas generation to meet capacity demands.
US Elections: Anticipate policy-driven “unnatural acts” (e.g., tax refunds, potential tariff changes, MBS actions) that could juice growth/markets short term and shift sector leadership.
Macro Mix: Labor data soft but not alarming; GDPNow skewed by gold exports; spending resilient (BNPL, refunds) but real retail sales flat, keeping an eye on earnings as the ultimate driver.
International: International outperformance may be late-cycle; country-by-country selectivity over blanket exposure with Eurozone growth lagging and EM valuations uneven.
Transcript
there's some room for this market to get some legs underneath it, but you know, we've got some work to do. First of all, we've had basically, you know, eight straight months in a row where markets have been positive. That's a very long stretch. So, you know, having a month or two where you get some consolidation or a bit of a contraction even would not be surprising at all. Say, you know, say the last half of this month we have a 3 to 5% correction for, you know, whatever reason. That would be totally unsurprising given this massive run. we had from those April lows. Uh you should expect probably this year um in 2026 at least two 5% corrections and probably a 10% sometime this summer would not be surprising at all. Welcome to thoughtful money. I'm Fal Money founder and your host Adam Tagert. Welcoming you here at the end of the week for another weekly market recap with my good friend, the done and dusted portfolio manager, Lance Roberts. Lance, how you doing? >> I'm doing good. I'm very excited. Uh next week, of course, uh when we're having this conversation on air, you'll you and I will actually be in Houston for our investment conference. So, uh we've got one week left. We got a few tickets left available on the website. So if you go to realvestmentadvice.com, click on the u the link at the top of the page and get your ticket. Love to see you here. We get time to visit. Adam and I both will have plenty of time to visit, hang out, talk after the conference. So uh if you haven't got your ticket yet, be sure and do it. It'll be a really good conference. >> Yeah, should be really fun. Um looking forward to doing this market recap with you live next week in front of your live audience. Um so folks, if you're watching and able to get to Houston next week, um please join us. It's going to be a great time. So, Lance, I chose done and dusted because your wife's chemo treatments are now behind her, correct? >> Exactly. Yes. Very excited. Um, all [clears throat] the blood work has come back exceptionally good. So, we're, you know, her CA125 is down below 10. Now, it's at nine, which is one of the kind of the one of the tests. Um, normal ranges are up to from like 0 to 30. So, she's well into normal ranges, which is fantastic. I told you about the singularity test which showed no evidence of disease. So, she's she's done really good. She's just recovering now. The test the last chemo was Friday. So, she's just now starting to get past the the nausea of that. But, uh she's very excited. She's starting to grow back here. So, she's very excited about that. >> All right. Well, look, we are super excited for her and for you that the news appears to be developing so nicely. Um, you know, I know you're not out of the woods for years until, you know, they they they clear you, but um, how fantastic that things have been going the direction they have been and um, so wonderful and I really look forward to giving her thanks from everybody from Thoughtful Money in person at the conference next week. >> Yeah, she she'll be there Friday night for sure for the mixer. So, uh, she's she's looking forward to seeing it. >> All right. Fantastic. Well, and Ashley, my wife is coming, too, so she's looking forward to meeting her in person as well. Um, all right. Well, look, lot lots to get through and and not a lot of time. Um, >> Lance has got to get out of here for another uh checkup with the doctors there. So, um, we'll get you out on time here, Lance. Um, a lot to cram in here. Hopefully, a rant that might not even be a short one. So, we'll see if we can't get it all in and if not, we'll we'll make changes on the fly. Um, first off, folks, forgive me if I look a little uh peaked. Um, I got in real late last night. um investing in one of the most important things which is your social capital, your community. As folks know, I moved to Reno uh this year and um got invited to my first guy's poker night last night um and didn't crawl back into the house until quite late. So, I'm uh recovering from that. What I did learn most from this, Lance, besides that there are some, you know, really great guys I hadn't hadn't yet met that I got a chance to spend time with last night, but um as you learn during events like this, uh the power of alcohol and luck is just amazing. Um as folks know, I don't drink. Um, so I have no excuse for for performing poorly in uh things like poker, but the guy that just cleaned the table, Lance, just got drunker and drunker through the night. And he started, you know, he started amassing so many chips, he could kind of push people around. Um, but he got to the point pretty early on where he wasn't even checking his cards. You know, playing Texas Holde, so you get delivered dealt two cards right at the beginning. His big thing became like, I'm just going to bet and I'm not even going to look at my cards. And this bastard just kept winning again and again and again. I kept waiting for reversion of the mean to kick in, for the alcohol to really kick in. And this guy just cleaned the table until his wife came and and uh and took them and then we devied up all his chips cuz he had all the chips at that point in time. So anyways, uh it's always a caution of um you know, if you're sitting at the table and you're feeling like the psy um you probably are and I definitely was last night. All right, so lots to get through here, Lance. Um, let's start with the markets. Um, you know, everybody is feeling the the tractor pull to the big round number of 7,000 S&P. Um, but we haven't quite hit it yet. And last time you were on, we talked about that you were seeing some healthy rotation, some some broadening of the markets. Um, is is that what's continuing here? Is that's kind of is that sort of what's keeping the the mag 10 from pulling the S&P to 7,000 because capital is starting to flow in some of these other sectors that have been less loved. >> Well, it's actually the the MAG 7 that's keeping the index from getting to 7,000 because they've actually kind of been underperforming. Apple, Nvidia, Google, Meta, they're they're doing okay. There's nothing going wrong with them, but they're just really not going anywhere. So that's what I'm saying because the capital I think is flowing into other parts. Right. >> Yeah. Right. Right. So uh yeah you know what's been supporting the market here is we're definitely saw you know in fact I'm writing about that in this weekend's newsletter um which is looking we you know part of the discussion is looking at value versus growth and value has been outperforming growth now for the last few weeks and in fact uh just last week on on the first trading day of January we launched a new factor rotation model on simp. It's an actual live dollar portfolio. So I've actually got capital invested in this portfolio. Um but it it looks to rotate between value and growth. And right now it's about 80% value versus 20% growth. >> Really? Okay. So this is new. Uh but you think this is apparently going to be an important enough theme of 2026 that you've you've committed real capital to this? >> Well, no. We've been re so Nick Lane um who is our one of our CFAs on our investment team has been researching this model for about a year and a half now. Um we've been back testing it, testing it in a whole variety of different manners. No, this is a long-term uh portfolio. It's not something we're designing just for 2026. Um there is a long history of value versus growth rotations. And in fact, if you put a value chart up against a growth chart, they're almost mirror images. And there are times when growth outperforms, there's times when value outperforms. And so what this model looks for is it looks for relative changes to that correlation between fac value and growth and then it rotates the portfolio between 80% growth or 80% value uh based on those changes. So it's When you say rotates between 80%, is that [clears throat] in in gradations along the way or is it just 80 one way or 80 the other way? >> No, no, it's in gradations. As we start to see the relative performance pick up, we start migrating over. It can happen very quickly, mind you. So, this this portfolio isn't for tax sensitive people because it can have a lot of turnover within a given year. Um but um over time the the value versus growth relationship works out well and provides better performance with a lower beta volatility than you get just in owning an SP index. >> Okay. Um how how what are your expectations for how active it's going to be going forward? And I only asked that because it it seems and I could be wrong here, but it seems like for the past bunch of years, it's kind of been pinned to growth. [laughter] Value's really gotten the short end of the stick for quite a long time. >> And and and that's right. I mean, you could be in the growth side of of the of the equation for a year or a year and a half or two and then it rotates into value for six months, eight months, a year, year and a half, then it rotates back to value. So, it's it's not this isn't something that rotates like every week. Um, it takes time for these changes to occur. And so, we're looking for the macro changes of value versus growth. Um, but there's enough historical work there and evidence that's there that gives us a pretty good model to work off of. >> Okay. All right. Um, well, so maybe we should just pull up the S&P and get the the technicals out of the way, especially since we're we're pressed on time here. Um, but what do you think now? Okay, we're in a new year. Um, we're not that far from 7,000. Um, the momentum here is up and to the right. Um, not quite as uh as strong as it was, you know, for what, July through September of last year. Um, but it's still, you know, it it still doesn't look like we've reached any sort of technical peak in the market yet. But correct me if my assumption is wrong. >> No, no, it's right. I mean, you know, take a look at the chart of the S&P. We're bumping up. You know, it's interesting. We've we've set some new all-time highs this year, but we haven't actually closed above intraday highs. So, you know, we're we're kind of bumping up to the top of this kind of trading range. And again, you know, we're, you know, looking back here, you've got a kind of a nice flat top to the markets, but it's creeping up. So, you're kind of creating this this kind of rising wedge that's bullish. So, a breakout above 7,000, you should get a little bit of relative momentum behind the market. So, you know, we're not overbought. You look at relative strength, it's improving, but it's not overbought. Uh momentum, uh, signals are, you know, kind of in a good average range. They're not overbought either. So there's some room for this market to get some legs underneath it, but you know, we've got some work to do. First of all, we've had basically, you know, eight straight months in a row where markets have been positive. That's a very long stretch. So, you know, having a month or two where you get some consolidation or a bit of a contraction even would not be surprising at all. Say, you know, say the last half of this month we have a 3 to 5% correction for, you know, whatever reason. That would be totally unsurprising given this massive run we had from those April lows. Uh you should expect probably this year um in 2026 at least two 5% corrections and probably a 10% sometime this summer would not be surprising at all. But you know given those opportunities those will be some good spots to add to exposure increase your equity you know kind of risk profile so to speak. uh markets should kind of try to push their way higher at least here over the next few months because again momentum's in place. Earnings still look good. Economic growth is okay. Nothing going wrong there. Um we can talk about the employment data. It was weak. You know, that's certainly a concern, but you know what markets are focusing on is that weak employment data means the Fed's going to remain easy and that's going to provide more monetary accommodation. Buybacks going to be about 1.2 trillion this year. That'll be another strong support for markets. So there's not a lot of catalyst right now for a big major reversion, but that doesn't mean we're not going to have some corrections along the way. >> Okay. Um so let me ask you this. So let's talk about the jobs for a second. Um we got the ADP and the payrolls this week for December. Um both were sort of slightly less than expected, but not a ton, right? So definitely, you know, not warning bells or anything like that. And on the unemployment rate, it actually dropped uh a tenth of a percent to 4.4%. Um so to your point, Lance, it's kind of almost like a Goldilocks uh result for the way that Wall Street likes to look at things, right? You know, um it's not bad. So, we'll feel good about that. But it's bad enough. It's weak enough that the Fed is likely to continue its easing, right? Which of course is what Wall Street wants, right? Well, I mean, if you take a look at full-time employment versus the working age population, that's declining pretty sharply, and that certainly doesn't suggest that you've got a roaring economic backdrop, right? Um, by any stretch of the imagination, >> you know, printing out Go ahead. >> True. Um, but I want to let me just mention this so you can include it in the rest of your answer. Um, GDP has has for GDP now has has been sharply revised up. And I know there's some reasons for that, but um GDP growth is is not coming down. And in fact, you know, there there looks like there could be catalysts to the upside. Some of the things we're seeing in the GDP now data and then you and I talked last week about at least the administration saying, look, there's a lot of things that are coming and we're going to talk about some of that stuff uh today. Um so uh you know could could we actually have a strengthening economy that's not paired with uh job growth right whether you know AI or whatever just keeps things muted not not bad not mass you know total firings like we've seen in past recessions but just hey you know this economy is beginning to warm up but that doesn't necessarily mean that the employers are going to start hiring you know in in robust costly anytime soon. >> Right. Okay. But it's all fine. That's that's right. Um you know the GDP now numbers revised sharply up because you had a massive surge in net exports because of gold exports alone. Right. So you had this massive surge historical surge in gold being exported out of the US. So that that gave a massive bump to the trade uh the net export issue in GDP which gave it that massive jump. That's why it doubled. um that's not a sign of economic prosperity at all. Right? That's a that's a oneoff anomaly. We saw that same anomaly back earlier this year. We saw a big drop in GDP because of frontr running tariffs and that was a a big trade def uh trade deficit issue and we saw the net export number really be the big contributor to that drop in the first quarter and then it came roaring back in the second quarter because that was all reverse after tariffs. So you're seeing the same exact impact now. Um but >> sorry but if if you back out that gold bump I think the GDP growth is still solid right it's not like it's >> solid it's about 3% right on a on a quarterly now you got to remember how GDP also announc uh GDP now is also reported they they're taking their number and multiplying it by four right so they're taking the quarterly number so say it's 3% you have to take that number and divide it by four because that's what the quarterly GDP actually is so again it's it's just It's assuming that that when you read that number GDP 3% or 5% whatever it's assuming that every single quarter going forward is going to be exactly the same as this quarter which is not really a great way to look at data because data doesn't work but it it's it's you know it makes great headlines. Um, but the but you're you're the the bigger point that that you're missing is that you don't want economic growth without employment because that means >> not missing. I I I I [laughter] know I I I agree with you there. I'm just saying that might happen this year, right? >> Well, yeah, it might happen, but that doesn't increase earnings, right? And so, at the end of the day, what we want is we want earnings to grow for corporations that comes from economic activity. And if I'm not putting people to work, then I don't have as much money spent in the economy. Yes, I'm going to have some one-offs this year that's going to keep, you know, economic growth supported. You got a lot of AI spending on capex, a lot of business investment, those type of things. But that's not going to lead to broader economic prosperity if we don't have job growth to go along with it. And what we need more importantly than just job growth is we need full-time employment that pays benefits and allows people to support families and those type of things. So yeah, we can have economic growth that looks good on the surface, but underneath you get a deterioration in economic prosperity that eventually flows into corporate earnings. >> Okay. So, um I I mean I agree with all that and look, I'm I'm hoping both for a stronger economy that comes with greater wage, real wage growth, right? Um you know what's interesting to do though is just prepare people for some of the the possibilities of this year. And you and I talked last last time about how we could have a year of strong economic growth but poorly performing markets, right? They don't have to be correlated. And obviously when valuations are as high as they are right now, the risk of that happening is higher than normal, right? We have this K-shaped economy as well. And you know, as long as asset prices don't uh crater, um those who have assets going to continue to spend. And we just got the um the holiday spending numbers. Um we saw that uh online holiday sales, online holiday sales, but I think this is true of all um hit a new record. Uh 258 billion basically um heavily driven by buy now pay later and people responding to discounts. So, you know, not necessarily the healthiest sign there, but to your point about the importance of earnings and whatnot, the spending is still there and that could continue through the year driven by that top cohort, right? Again, on average looks great on median wise doesn't, but but GDP only really cares about the average in until and unless the the bottom 80% really get into tough times. Well, and again, we talked about this earlier this week on the show, which was that, you know, one of the things that you never do is count the consumer out. And it's like, oh my gosh, you know, consumers have so much debt. You know, they're they're about to tap out. This market's going to crash. You know, the the I've been in this market for over 35 years, approaching 40. Um, and I tell you, you know, over the years, it's what's always amazed me is how consumers can find more money, whether they find it on credit cards, they take out loans, they go sell, you know, their kidneys, whatever it is, buy now pay later, you know, the new thing. But it's always amazing to me is is that consumers are always able to find more money to keep spending. You know, and again, you know, it's it's it's funny, you know, you and I talk about the K-shaped economy and how things aren't fair. you know, and people can't afford houses or whatever. And a massive function of that is their own financial, you know, kind of habits and what keeps them poor. And what keeps them poor is finding all these alternative measures, right, to spend money and >> when they should be tightening the belt and really Yeah. >> Yeah. But but again, you know, it's it's the you know, the one and again [clears throat] this old axiom of Wall Street is never count the consumer out because they'll always surprise you. >> Yeah. No, I totally agree. And you know what? I feel like going into credit card debt is like the analogy there is selling your kidney. I think going buy now pay later. The analogy is like selling your second kidney. >> Exact selling your heart, you know, just [laughter] like eventually, you know, once that's gone, it's gone. Yeah. Exactly. Um, by the way, folks, we're kind of laughing through the tears on on this one. >> Yeah. >> Um, so let me stick on this just for a second here. So from my perspective, you disagree with me if you're seeing something different. There are a few signs at this point that we're we're heading off any sort of economic cliff. And look, I'm the first guy to say, you know, to give you the long list of reasons why we could end up falling off one. Um, but to your point, Lance, we we have to trade the world as it is, not as the world as we think it should be or wish it were, right? Um, so, uh, you know, so first off, I think we just all have to acknowledge that, right? And so if you're if you're pessimistic about the the current economic system and the current markets or whatever, you just want to be eyes wide open, right? So you don't necessarily want to be taking a drastic position in your case, Lance, that might just be going all into the bunker type of uh, investments or even more aggressively going short. you know, a guy I know was pinging me yesterday telling me that he, you know, has gone pretty short for March and April, and I'm basically telling him, man, I hope that works out well for you, but that's that's, you know, I I that that would make me nervous on that too, too short of a timeline here. Um but uh so so we're not seeing a ton of signs yet of the wheels coming off and there are factors as you and I have discussed that could um make the economy surprise to the upside this year. Right. And certainly if you're listening to the administration, Secretary Basant, whatever, you know, he'll give you a very thought through litany of reasons why he thinks the economy is going to be running much hotter at the end of this year uh than at the beginning. And a lot of this stuff is he would say, "These are the investments that we made through 2025 with all the, you know, new policies we passed and all that type of stuff." And I I think you count that stuff out at your uh at your danger, at your risk, right? I'm I'm not saying they're going to manifest, but I can see how if they do, they'll have the impact that that the administration thinks they will. So, you've got to have some positioning in your portfolio. Okay. if if the administration actually succeeds on that, I got to make sure I'm not steamrolled by that. Now, in addition to to what I think they've been trying to do, which is to create things that are going to drive more secular growth, it is increasingly clear to me at least that they are willing to do whatever it takes in the near term to try to support the system, goose the system in advance of the midterms. Right? So, you know, we're going to get the biggest tax refunds apparently in history this year. that's going to be hitting pretty soon. A lot of that money is going to be spent. It's going to juice the economy presumably. And we're still waiting to hear what the Supreme Court's going to say about tariffs, but there's a bunch of tariff revenue that comes in that's come in that the president has said, "Hey, I'm going to I'm going to send checks to middle- inome households with that." If that indeed happens, that's going to have a stimulus effect. We just saw yesterday the president announced that uh somehow he's going to find somebody to buy 200 billion worth of mortgage back securities here, right? So to me, Lance, it's it to me that says look, the administration's getting really serious about kind of buying votes, you know, for November. Um and whether I like that, whether I dislike it, um and folks, I dislike uh things that are artificially stimulative. Um, I I I got to admit that if they do this stuff, it may actually juice the both the economy and the markets. So, you know, I got to be eyes wide open to the fact that Yeah. You know, even though I've got some of these concerns, these things, at least in the short term, could overpower them. What do you think? >> Oh, yeah. No, absolutely. I mean, just take a look at the deregulation. Uh, you got a lot of benefits coming from the one big beautiful bill that'll factor through this year. Tax cuts are one of those. there there's a lot of economic support you know for the markets you know both economically and just fundamentally in the markets for this year doesn't mean that things are going to work out fantastic there's a lot of other things that could come along that could certainly undermine that but you know as a good example let's say the supreme well the Supreme Court was so as you and I are talking it's about 10:30 central time uh here in Texas on Friday >> on Friday >> Friday uh the Supreme Court was supposed to rule on tariffs at 10 o'clock this morning they didn't they ruled on another uh issue revolving around uh prisoners being able to have their sentences reviewed by the Supreme Court. Um but they they didn't get a ruling on tariffs. So that still might come. But see if the if even if the Supreme Court comes out and rules against tariffs, which is according to poly markets anyway, that's a pretty high probability they will rule against the tariffs. Then you know the question that becomes is what does the administration do next? Well, Scott Messen's already said he's got three or four other avenues to go down to get tariffs, you know, kind of reinstated using some other means. We'll see what happens. But if you repeal the tariffs, it's actually good for companies like Staples and a lot of value companies, the manufacturers, etc. that, you know, do imports and exports on an international basis. That's going to help improve their profit margins because you just removed the tax. So, that's going to be good for the markets. You know, you know, we all debate over the the validity of tariffs and whether they're good or bad or indifferent, but just the bottom line is if you take tariffs off companies, that's that's going to be a boost to bottom line profitability. So, you know, so so again, there's a lot of things that are supportive of the markets right now, but that doesn't mean that in three months or six months something can't crop up that kind of pulls the rug out of underneath the markets. And again, that is the thing. Mind you, all this stuff that you and I are talking about, the market's already factored in, right? There's there's nothing you're thinking about or I'm thinking about that the market hasn't already thought about, that's the beautiful thing about markets. It's millions and millions of minds all trying to figure out what's going to happen next. So, all that's factored in, but the thing that gets the market is something totally unexpected like, you know, the president standing in the Rose Garden going, "Hey, look, here's the tariffs on a board." And the markets weren't expecting that at all. So, you got a big correction. It'll be some event that causes Wall Street to go, you know what, we're not going to make $330 a year in earnings this year. It's going to be 300. What does that mean for valuations? And that's where you get a price correction in the markets. >> Yeah. Well, so what's interesting is I feel like so last time we we last week when we talked you basically said that you were going to write kind of a a a redo or or or a second version of the piece you wrote at the beginning of last year, right? The curb your enthusiasm thing. I can't remember. You were going to use a different analogy or different TV show this year. >> It's at South Park this year. >> South Park. Okay. But but basically making the same case, right? which is that you think this year is probably going to be more volatile and um you know probably it it's going to be a tougher year than say 2023 2024 right and even most of 2025 how 2025 played out right um uh and similarly to that or corroboratively of that I'm finding that the people I interview on this channel like the really smart people who are really plugged in they're coming up with very different perspectives on next year. Um, so two people in particular who I definitely place a lot of weight on on on their analysis. Um, one is Yan Vanek. Um, so you know, he's the president of the Von family of funds, right? I mean, these are they've got ETFs in in virtually any asset class that you can think of, right? And Jan kind of sits at the center of the the web there where all that information flow is coming through his desk. So, he's got one of the probably most informed perspectives on on on the securities market than anybody that I know. And Lance, he is really bullish. Um, he he he he just did a presentation that's going to release on this channel uh the day after this uh video airs. So, that'll be Sunday uh for folks. Um, and he walks through a bunch of charts and and basically gives a, you know, pretty compelling reason for why he thinks 2026 is going to be a big risk-on year. And, you know, I did the whole thing with him about just statistically, you know, four years in a row of of great returns is rare and stuff. And he gets it, but he's like, I'm just telling you, looking at all these factors here, they make me pretty darn bullish for the year, right? So, very compelling case. Now, a video I just released yesterday was with Michael How's, you know, Mr. liquidity and Michael was one of the very first I think he was the first guy that I knew who really stuck his neck out in October of 2022 and said guys it's time to go bullish and it's largely based upon his framework of global liquidity and it had bottomed and it had had started going back up and his liquidity cycles run in several year um time frames and he basically said the cycle has turned I think we should be bullish and he remained bullish all the way up until just now and he's saying you know my my My data is telling me that the liquidity cycle highly likely peaked in Q4 last year and we're going to be riding it down for the next couple years unless there's a correction that's so severe that it just shortens the cycle. Um so he's basically saying look I'm not necessarily calling for like a crash in 2026. I'm just telling investors it's going to be a disappointing year compared to the previous three great ones that we've had. So my point here is just it's going to be tough to really predict this year well. And so it's a kind of year where you're really got to have diversification or multiple strategies in place to be able to say, "Okay, look, if my primary thesis is wrong, I want to make sure that I'm not wrecked because of that." And and it's a year where I just think the chances for surprises are higher than normal for all the reasons that you just mentioned and I just mentioned. >> Yeah. I know and and that's and that's why you know I think predictions are pretty full hearty and you know we don't make predictions for the year. We just produced our outlook for 2026 which is a range of outcomes uh that ranges from 5500 to 8,000. And the whole point of that is is that the markets can wind up anywhere in between that range depending on what comes. And so what's important is is just to navigate the markets. You know it's interesting if you think about how most people invest. they go, I think the market's going to be bullish this year, so I'm all in, you know, growth stocks or whatever. And, you know, then things go wrong and they lose a bunch of money and >> or they just have even just the rotation you're talking about where they go nowhere because the investors went everywhere elsewhere >> or or vice versa, right? You know, they they go incredibly short and the market goes keeps running higher and they wind up the wrong side. So, you know, for us, it's it's simply like navigating a ship. Is that, you know, I'm not just going to get my ship and say, "Okay, I want to wind up in Alaska and just point the boat in that general direction and hope I get there." You know, you're going to navigate. You got storms to worry about. You've got, you know, obstacles to worry about. You've got a port for fuel, whatever. >> Stand bars, pirates, weather. Yeah. [laughter] >> Exactly. You know, always pirates. They're always a problem. So, you know, but but yeah, I mean, the goal is that we just have to navigate that ship to our end goal. And as things change, we're going to change our our place in the markets. You know, look, we're overweight equities right now going into the year because we're still bullish on the year. We're still long our Googles and our Metas and our Nvidas. We own those guys and but we've recently added things that are really stupidly boring like, you know, Altria, which is boring. It just throws off an 8% yield. You know, it's just those type of things, you know, added a bit of Verizon to the portfolio. It's really boring. It doesn't do anything. It just sits there and throws off yield. That's okay because if the market does correct, money is going to rotate into those sectors and that provides us some some some ballast in in the portfolio that we can increase later on if we need to. So yeah, you know, we got a little bit, you know, we're kind of tapping the brake just a smidge, but it's not enough really to slow down the momentum of the car right now. >> All right. And sorry, by tapping the brakes again, you're not diminishing your equity exposure. You're just shifting a bit more of it to these boring, more defensive plays. >> Yeah. And and very small. I mean, you know, we're still probably 85% growth um versus value right now in our primary models. Um the, you know, like I said, the you know, and and you know, depending on the model that that you're talking about, but our primary model, we're still about 80% growth in allocation, about 20% value and defensive and that'll that'll shift, you know, as you know, kind of markets dictate and but right now there's nothing telling us that that growth is falling off a cliff right now and so we want to stay more exposed to that long side. Yeah. Okay. Um so how to transition into this? Um I I guess let me ask you this. Do you have an opinion on um international stocks? So right now India is the fastest growing country in the G20. It's a market that Yanvan has been really bullish on for a couple years. Valuations got pretty rich. So you know middle of last year he was like I love it still but I'm not sure if I'm a buyer at these prices. things have cooled off a little bit. Not necessarily asking you about India, but um the rest of the world stocks actually outperformed the S&P last year. Um do you have a sense as to whether you think that's going to continue this year given all that growth >> there? So if you take a look, okay, so first of all, you got to break down the world into regions. Um so you can't just say international versus domestic because for instance the Euro zone is not going to grow at all. They're, you know, way behind the curve on terms of AI and and what's going to happen in that growth cycle of AI. Their GDP, they're they're plagued with years and years of decades of bad monetary and economic policy that have just kind of really destroyed the growth cycle of those countries. And so Eurozone quote unquote will grow around 1% next year according to the IMF. Uh US GDP growth is going to be closer to two. uh you start getting into some of these emerging market countries like India, China etc. their growth rates are going to be a lot higher. But you always have to remember one thing about international and this is the the the the big factor that comes back into all this. The the mis I should say the misstatement that's always made is is that well these countries are cheap relative to the US. That's a that's a bad analogy. Um for 15 years international markets have vastly underperformed US markets. So again, if you've owned a bunch of international emerging market stocks, yeah, they weren't great last year, but over the last 15 years, just as an example, they just so massively underperformed. They were like a major boat anchor to your your boat getting to where you want to go. So it just really dragged on your overall performance. A lot of these countries are and again um as your guest said, you know, India is very rich right now relative to itself. So when you're thinking about investing internationally, I'm certainly not opposed to it at all. I think you have to look at each country that you want to invest in and determine is it cheap relative to the country itself, not relative to the US. It's irrelevant. It's only is it cheap or expensive relative to itself. And you know, if you can find a country that's trading very cheaply and they've got good strong economic prospects, that's probably a good place to put some capital. Unfortunately, I just don't see a lot of those areas in the world right now. >> Okay. So obviously folks, you know, watch the video with Yan to get a little bit more specific on some of the other parts of the world that are catching his attention, but for a second, I know you said you're not thinking of this way, but just think of it as the rest of the world, right? And I'm sure there are funds where you can just buy, you know, a mix of of >> everything, >> everything >> given again this is the difference between economic growth and and stock market prices. So US out outgrowing a lot of other places like the Euro zone. Um but stocks very richly valued right. So with a broad brush you know international stocks outperformed the US last year. Do [clears throat] you think that momentum is likely to continue or not this year? Or maybe as a more simple question what role do they should they play in a portfolio just just non US exposure? you know, I I think you're late to that trade. The momentum will probably carry that international trade maybe a few more months. Um maybe even the rest of this year. It's very possible. Um one of my favorite charts to always look at as I'm sure you've seen it, Adam, is the Kalen periodic table of returns. >> Yeah. >> And so it shows you on these periodic tables. It's, you know, it's like a periodic table of elements, right? But it just shows you, you know, what asset class performed the best last year all the way down to the worst. And what you'll notice in particular is that a first of all, anything that's at the top of the return structure for one or two years always winds up at the bottom of the return structure in the subsequent years. So that just always, you know, this is why investors always tend to be wrong as they chase what was performing at the time it begins to underperform. >> Usually I would agree with you. I mean for too many years recently the hyperscalers have been up near the top. But yeah, >> generally you're right. again, you know, S&P is, you know, again, two or three years at the top and then it'll fall, you know, like we had in 2022, right? You had a a correction in 2022. >> Um, but but the point is is that international markets in particular spend less time at the top than they do at the bottom. >> So, you know, just they outperformed really well last year. Could they do two years? Yes, that's not entirely impossible. But I think you're get, you know, given the economic growth dynamics of those countries, I think you're getting towards the tail end of that run, not the beginning. So just, you know, the point is if you're going to own them, it's fine to own them. Just make sure you understand your risk profile and how you're building it into your portfolio structure. >> Okay. So you said that you are starting to increase slightly right now, but but maybe more as the year goes on. TBD um your portfolio into sort of more defensive areas, right? The more boring, less sexy, high income stuff. What about defense stocks? What what's your position at RA with defense stocks? There's a lot of people that are saying, "Hey, you know, that's where all the money's going, not just in the US, but but kind of everywhere internationally." Um, that that that should play a bigger percentage in the portfolios going forward. What do you think? >> No. Yeah, we own, for instance, one of the stocks we own in our portfolio is Rathon Technologies. Uh, we've owned that company when it was back when it was United Technologies before Rathon acquired them. We've owned that company for for years and we've made just a ton of money in that thing. Every time it goes up, we trim it back. We, you know, it runs up again, we trim it back. Um, the frustrating part has been we've been wanting to actually increase that exposure in the portfolio, but we can't get a good break to where that thing will correct enough to allow us a good entry point. So, you know, it's it's it's, you know, continuing to do well. I like defense companies. I think they're going to continue to do well. So yeah, you need, you know, I wouldn't I wouldn't go massively overexposed in defense stocks. I think everything requires a balance, but yeah, you should definitely probably own some defense stocks in your portfolio. >> Okay. Um, >> real quick, that said, all defense stocks are not the same, so make sure you choose wisely. >> All right. So, two questions on that. One, from a a richness sort of from a multiple standpoint, how is the sector currently trading? And then, okay, Blance, that sounds great. I I I want to own one of the good defensive stocks. What should I be looking for? >> Well, and well, you know, price performance is one. I mean, that's that's kind of an easy way to look at them. If you start scanning through defense stocks, whether it's Northrup Grumman or General Dynamics, uh, Rathon Technologies, go right on down the list. Um, you know, you'll see some that have better stock market performance than others. So you just would kind of want to pick, you know, don't buy the one that's beaten down when everything else is up because there's probably a problem with that particular company. And yeah, it's there. Sometimes stocks are cheap for a reason is the point, right? So just make sure that you're buying the company that's in the right space, whether it's Loheed Martin, you know, whoever it is. So there's some great companies out there. But then again, at the end of the day, all these stocks are trading pretty rich. Um, they're growing revenues like crazy. Fundamentally, they're very good. So, you know, fundamentals will matter ultimately and but the one thing about defense stocks is, you know, they can be volatile. So, you know, if you're going to own them, understand that, you know, it's not uncommon for defense stocks to to trade down 10, 15, 20% and then rally right back to alltime highs. So, you've got to give, if you're going to own them, you've got to give them more wiggle room in your portfolio and not, you know, sell out at the first sign that they're going down. >> Okay. Um uh there was an announcement yesterday, day before by Trump that um uh basically said he want, you know, wants to increase the um the budget for the US military >> and I think it was by a good amount. Um he said he wants to get up to 1.5 trillion. Um so presumably I think Wall Street hears that and says, "Okay, should own defensive stocks." That's even more money coming their way. >> Okay. >> Yeah. No, no, he said a couple of things. First of all, you know, he said, you know, he's going to ban buybacks and dividends until they get back to producing quicker, uh, producing military equipment faster and then also repairing equipment faster, which I thought was interesting. >> Okay. So, that's a negative then for the stock price, right? >> Yeah. Yeah. Well, it was negative for a day and then the next day they went roaring right back to alltime highs because of the announcement. today we're going to we want to increase spending. So yeah, you know, you got to take these things with a grain of salt. Look, I mean, at the end of the day, you know, this this president is very much pro America, America first, increase national security and that requires a stronger military. So, you know, he's very promilitary and and that's good for the defense sector and and again, that's why we own that we own exposure in that area. will probably increase exposure to that area at some point if we can get like I said get a decent correction in price. Um but you know yeah again I think you just have to have exposure there. >> Okay. Yeah. And I got to say too it's just crazy making. I mean, I spend a lot of time on X during the day and you know, Trump just throws these things out so fast and furious and and you know, like within the span of 24 hours, you know, he delivered something I've been asking for for years, right? Which was, hey, let's get big institutional money out of the single family home market. And I was like, God, thank God. I've been begging for that, right? And then less than 24 hours later, and then I want to buy 200 billion of mortgage back securities. I was like, come on. It's like the worst thing ever. So, [clears throat] you know, it's bananas. >> Got one step forward, one step back, right? So, >> well, and look, and and that's why I I mean, really, that's why I brought that up earlier. Like, I just sort of see that as as increasingly like that tariff checks to households, whatever. Like, I'm going to do whatever it takes to try to win the midterms, right? So, I would just say be prepared, folks, for lots of lots of unnatural acts between now and and November. >> Yeah. And and again, you know, I I see where his intentions are. I mean, and they're good intentions, right? You know, it's like, I'm gonna, you know, I'm going to buy back $200 billion worth of mortgage back securities. We're get rates down so people can afford to go buy a home. Well, the problem is is that >> But it's not. It's going to raise prices. It's going to keep that affordability problem there. It's a gift to existing homeowners. >> Exactly. So, you know, the the problem is is that it's a well-intentioned But this is most economic policy in the country. >> But I don't know if it is well-intentioned. I think he's just like, I don't want to have a housing price correction before the the midterms. That's going to be bad. there there's nothing on the there's nothing on the horizon saying that a house price correction is even coming. There's nothing out there. Supply and demand. >> Okay, I disagree on that, but let's not fight this kind of >> I'll I'll tell Yeah. Okay, fine. We can argue about it later. But the point is is that that ain't going to happen before the midterms. So, you know, again, his his goal is to be well-intentioned. Hey, and look, Dubai votes for midterm, get mortgage rates down. Awesome, right? And you know, it sounds great. But the problem with the majority of economic policy that comes out of Washington is it's misguided. It's this sounds good on the surface, but they don't ever look at the unintended consequences. This is why we had the housing bubble to start with was because of all the unintended consequences that came from adjustable rate mortgages and no money down. >> Well, that's my again that's why I just hate it so much, which is you're not going to solve an unaffordability problem caused by too much intervention by more intervention. >> Exactly. And yeah, and the same thing with checks to households. We know how that turns out and I I don't think I don't think he ever sends checks to households. I don't think he can get that pushed through Congress. But, you know, that's a terrible idea. We know that if you send checks to households, you're going to create a spike in inflation. You're going to >> with you problems. You know, again, there's no there's no incentive to do it and it just makes people poorer at the end of the day because you raise the cost, they spend the money and then they have no money but the cost doesn't come down. Yeah. >> So, you know, everything equalizes at a higher price. It's just bad. These are bad bad policies that we've been doing for over a decade. You wonder, you look around, you go, why are we in the situation we're in? It all goes back to the financial crisis. Almost 90% of it is stuff we started doing back in the financial crisis. >> Yeah. I mean, there are things before that that I could add to the list, but I agree. It it built a runaway momentum with the GFC. Yeah. And and everything we should have done, >> we didn't. and we tripled down on the stuff that created the problems in the first place. Yeah. So, >> okay. So, anyways, enough about this except just I want to reiterate the folks like just prepare yourself. Who knows what the future's going to bring? As Lance said earlier, like Yogi Bara, predictions are hard, especially about the future. But a prediction I think that is easier to make right now is we're going to see more and more of these unnatural acts uh coming up to November. And like me, you might cheer some and hate the rest, but it it's going to be deformative to try to influence the uh the election results. Um all right. Uh so this is kind of a little bit tied to defense stocks, but um Lance, do you see any [clears throat] material impact that we should be aware of of some of the um fastchanging geopolitical developments that are out there? And I know in general you think the markets don't really care because they've largely priced the stuff in. But um you know very recently we had Maduro removed. Probably markets don't care so much about that specifically but of course it has economic potential. Well it has economic implications and certainly potentially around the oil industry in the future. We are I think in real time seeing a growing potential that the regime in Iran might be replaced. >> Um and I'm I'm definitely rooting for that. I think if the people could throw off the yoke of that oppressive theocracy, that would be great for them and great for the world. Again, potential economic implications. Again, potentially big ones for oil. You know, if all of a sudden Iran becomes friendly again and and you know, their oil stops getting sanctioned and all that stuff. Hopefully, at some point this year there's peace negotiated in Ukraine again. You know, potential material economic implications there if Russia starts doing business with the rest of the world again. and Russia oil stops being sanctioned. Um, so you and I have been talking >> all this, by the way, all this, by the way, is bad for oil, right? >> Well, I was going to say, you and I have been talking about how, hey, maybe this is the time to get into energy and oil because it's been depressed and all that stuff, but these are potential, you know, big big headwinds in front of it. So, >> I mean, you're talking about potential big increases supply of oil. So, you know, but again, like Venezuela, um, you know, it's going to take years. >> It's going to take years to get their oil Yeah. production up. So, and they're they're 8/10en of 1% of global oil production right now. So, it's that's an odd mover. But your points about Iran and Russia are much more, you know, near-term events if those turned out that that could bring more supply of oil to markets, depress oil prices that bring inflation down. So, everybody kind of rip for that. But, um, certainly not going to be good for energy stocks at least near term. >> So, are you making any decisions right now given all this or you just in the watch and see mode? >> Still watch and see. I mean, I I you know, I'm still in the camp that I think we can see 40 four in the 40s, right? You know, sub 50, mid4s in oil. I don't think that's out of the question >> for a sustained period of time or like a blip down into it. >> No, no, it'll be like a gradual decline and then we'll kind of base and bottom for a while and then start to, you know, whatever is causing that will will get through that. OPEC will cut production, whatever it is, and we'll start seeing oil prices climb back up. I just think you're going to see a better opportunity to buy energy stocks later than right now. You may, you know, right now you're getting a bump out of energy stocks because of hype over Venezuela. I I think that when people realize that's going to be years in the making, then I think that premium goes away and potentially you can buy the Exxon Mobile Chevrons a bit cheaper here. Again, a lot of this depends on where oil prices go. And if some dynamic occurs in the next you know month or three months or six months or whatever that we start seeing an increase um in demand for oil and a reduction in supply you know which is what's going to drive the price of oil then you know we'll start adding more we have energy exposure now but that's more tied to the AI data center development stuff um but we'll start adding you know more of the kind of the majors in terms of oil and gas you know kind of later on you know opportunistically. >> Okay. Um just wondering too like let's say that this really does depress the price of oil for a couple years at least because you know for all the reasons we just mentioned more oils coming on there. Does that take the wind out of the sales of the the high-f flyers and like the nuclear space right now because it might take some of the urgency off the table a little bit? I mean, I know the oil isn't necessarily used for um electrical production. Um but if it's just so damn cheap and plentiful, um does it take some of the urgency of moving to some of these other energy sources uh off? >> Yeah. Um you know, Meta just cut a deal with um uh Vistra and Blo and one other company. I can't remember just caught my blank at the moment. There's another company. Anyway, Meta just did a pretty big deal with them to generate about 2 gawatts worth of power from nuclear. Um, but again, the problem with nuclear is it takes a long time to build plants, right? So, Olo's trying to build a plant. It's going to take them, you know, several years to get that built. So, they're they're that's why some of the energy plays we have now are focused on that behind the meter structure of providing natural gas or liqufied natural gas to data centers for power generation through generators. And that's why we like Gnova as an example because they provide the generators. Um, you know that, you know, I think that's the near-term play. And then later we'll start to see, you know, where power comes from and who's generating most of that power. But again, you know, I there's there's still the backend problem of this that which is the grid which we don't have the ability to deliver. Great, you can build a plant, you still got to deliver the power, right? And so one of the the big factors is going to be the buildout of the infrastructure to deliver the power on a consistent sustainable basis. >> Okay. All right. Um well look in just that past four minutes or so we have a lot of topics that will probably be interesting rants uh for us to have going forward. Um but not for today because we're on a a time meter here. Um so I'm about to ask you about your trades, Lance. before I do uh and then we'll do the rant after that. Um is there anything else that's like really burning brightly on your radar that I haven't thought to ask you about yet? >> No, it really it's been boring. Um you know, the the good news is is that the first five trading days of the year were positive. So, as the old Wall Street axiom goes, so goes the first five days, so goes the month, so goes the year. So right now we've got the one of the tri one piece of the trifecta in place for a positive year down on the other side. >> The Wall Street groundhog didn't see a shadow. So we're >> Exactly. And but Santa Claus didn't come. Right. So you know when Santa Claus fails, >> but well but it's not like he brought coal either, right? I mean the markets didn't corre, you know, correct or anything. >> But what Santa Claus when a failed Santa Claus rally occurs, you generally have more volatility in January and February. So you potentially have a corrective month in February as an example >> which would again like I said after eight months of just positive return so far >> you'd expect a negative month would not be surprising at all. Again that doesn't mean the market crashes but you know a two 3% down month in February or two or 3% 5% down by the end of this month would be out of the realm of possibility. So you know you should be aware of that. But but again, if if we can, you know, kind of keep our footing here, keep the markets where they are dynamically, everything looks pretty good right now. Um, earnings are okay, growth is okay. There's nothing looming out there at the moment that's that's a big impact because again, all the narratives, go set those off on a shelf somewhere because they don't matter. The only thing that matters is earnings. And what you're looking for is whatever event or catalyst it is that makes Wall Street go, "Yeah, we're not going to be able to generate those earnings this year. It's going to be less and now I've got to repric the market for low earnings." That's the only thing you need to be watching out for. Everything else is >> nonsense. >> Yeah. But like I said, you know, holiday holiday online spending was at a record. So we're not seeing stress there yet. >> No. Exactly. And but you also got >> I mean we're seeing a lot of stress consumers but it's not impacting the average spending yet. Yeah. >> Also take that with a bit of grain of salt as well because if you actually look at real retail sales they've been flat now for like three years. >> So retail sales we look at them we look on a nominal basis and to understand why that's important is that if you fill up a gas >> if prices go up even if you're buying the same amount of things it looks like growth. Yeah. We we >> Yeah. Exactly. So you know it's that that's that's the real issue. Yeah. we're spending more to buy the same amount of stuff and that's not really economically >> but on that real basis it's flatlined but again you're not you're not seeing signs yet that it's it's deteriorating. Yeah. Below the >> No, not yet. But you know the the the important thing about that is historically is that when you go through a period of where real retail sales are flat that's normally pre-recessionary >> right normally pre-recessionary. And again, like I said earlier, like I look, trust me, Lance, you know me, I can come up with a whole bunch of concerns around this, but then again, if we give people the biggest tax returns in history and then maybe potentially in addition to that, give them some tariff checks, >> that's going to lead to more spending, right? >> Yeah. I don't think we get the tariff checks, but >> Okay. But but maybe it's some other form of relief, right? You know, >> but even Scott Mess said it'll be a fun the tariff checks will be a function of the tax refunds. >> Yep. >> So, forget about the tariff check. just to just record >> tax refunds. Again, like like I said, you don't have to like this. You just have to be aware it's going on. Yeah. >> $800 to $1,000 uh estimated refunds this year for most people. >> Yeah. That's that they'll go out and buy new TVs. >> Yeah. Um and the sad thing is is, you know, they'll take the money and say, "Oh, I've got this free money to spend." And then they'll they'll spend more than that, right? Well, okay, I got a,000 bucks, but the thing I'm going to buy is 1,500 bucks. So they're actually spending more money out they'll be they're out of pocket more than they otherwise would have been right if they hadn't gotten the check in the first place. >> Real real quick real quick one thing and then we'll do our rant. There was a great article in the Wall Street Journal earlier this week and you and I have talked about before all this speculation zero day you know zero day expiration options and leverage >> great article uh there was a guy named Captain Condor um which he had this whole group of followers that were trading zero day to expiration options >> Condor because that that's a formation with option >> pair trades right >> he was called Captain Condor And he was using the old Wall Street method of betting, which is that if you lose money on your bet, you double the next bet. If you lose that bet, you double the next bet. So for >> they lost 50 basically. They wip he wiped out their entire group u on I think it was on Christmas Eve if I'm not mistaken. There was actually went on to GoFundMe to ask for money to pay for bills for the month >> but lost everything. Um, and and so the the point is, and we've tried to explain this before, it seems like trading options are a risk-free bet, but when things go wrong, they go horribly wrong really quick. And they lost like this group lost like $50 million in total. So, don't gamble in the stock market. >> Yeah. Again, as we've said, you know, the the markets have gotten so used to speculating, sadly, because in a lot of cases, they've been rewarded for it for so long that everybody is >> follow some idiot on a video that you're watching on YouTube. I mean, I wouldn't do it. >> So, it's it's funny. Um I mean the the we've ranted about this a lot in the past so I won't do it again here but just how um we have with both carrot and stick um forced people to become speculators versus investors right it's become cultural now um and I hope I'm not spoiling anything for you Lance but you watch Land Man right >> did did you see did you see the latest episode >> I have not so don't spoil it >> um well okay all I'll say is there's a scene where they go to a in the last one where they go to a casino and it is very much >> I saw the episode. Okay, I saw the episode where >> Okay. Yeah. And so what does she do? She does exactly that, right? Keep doubling down because she's losing. And then they have her win like $300,000 or something like that. And of course the the the I'm watching that going like what a terrible message to send to, you know, the American viewing audience that you just have to just keep doubling down when you speculate, right? >> Yeah. Because you're going to end up like Captain Condor. >> All right. So trades, have you made any trades over the past uh week or as you said, are you still kind of in a wait and see? >> The the portfolio the our main flagship portfolios are are perfectly fine. Um you know, we we reduced um you know, kind of rebalanced our our all-weather model a couple weeks ago. The only thing we did this past week was really the new factor rotation model which is now up and live and running. So that's you know that was started you know January the what what is the date? uh January the 2nd. So that's the only thing that's occurred over the past week. >> Okay. So folks want to go check that out, they can go to simplevisor.com and and find that factor model amongst all the other ones you have. Okay. So we're going to get you out of here fairly soon, Lance. Um I was reflecting on um kind of a seinal person in my life and um I'm going to tell I'm going to tell the my story with them. Uh but it it it's going to make some key points. Um some of which are ones that we've touched on in the past, Lance, but I think they're important to remind people of especially at the beginning of a year. Um so, uh there was a a guy who moved into my town when I was a teenager, um or town next to me, and um uh he was a longtime Broadway and Hollywood actor. Um he was a guy, his name was Max Shoalter. Um, he also went under the stage name Casey Adams, but uh, he he was he was a character actor and he worked in just like he worked with everybody. I mean, there there wasn't like a like a a star of the silver screen that you could think of that that Max didn't have a story with her or wasn't a good friend of, right? Really charismatic guy. Um, his most memorable stage role was as uh, Horus Vandergelder in Hello Dolly, right? So, he was he performed more than 3,000 times opposite Carol Channing and Betty Greybel and Ethel Murman. Um, he appeared in more than a thousand television programs. Um, most folks watching this probably will know him from the film 16 Candles. He was Grandpa Fred in 16 Candles. Um, had this [clears throat] great grally laugh. Um, but just just such a great guy. and um he he ended up settling in the town next to me where I grew up. I grew up in a in a really small historic village in Connecticut um because he had been filming some movie decades ago and kind of fell in love with the area and said, "You know, when it's time for me to retire, I want to move there." So, we did. And what he started to do to kind of just plug into the town and the community is he started showing, you know, these great um movies. So, I first met him when he was showing Singing in the Rain, right? So, you go to this, you know, little theater. He shows Singing in the Rain. Uh, he comes out and he says, "Hey, everybody, you know, wasn't that great?" And we talk about it for a little bit and he says, "Well, hey, look, do you want to talk to Debbie Reynolds?" You know, star of the movie. And she walks out from behind the screen because he's best buddies with her, right? And you get to just sit there and talk to Debbie Reynolds for the night, right? So, he would do that again and again. Really just a wonderful guy. uh created a wonderful experience for the community. Um and he then um he then started directing plays at the local playhouse and that's kind of how I met him really. I got to know him well. Um I got cast in a few of the plays and so you know he directed me and uh we had uh he he really just became kind of a great mentor and really a great friend. Um so I used to just go to his his house and we'd sit down and talk for hours and really just just kind of the coolest guy. And you know what he would do is like he you we're all like teenagers in these plays he's putting together and then you know afterwards we'd go to his house and you know we'd talk to Mary Martin right or we talked to Katherine Heppern. Um it was just ridiculous. I mean the access that that this guy gave us. But anyways, um the the key story I want to tell here is um one of the last times I went to visit him, uh we were sitting there in the table in his uh in his his kitchen and his house was just packed Lance with memorabilia like just play bills and you know signed head shot of all the greats but just things he had picked up in his travels around life. There were things there from the palace of Versailles. It was it was it was just an amazing place to hang out. Um and his table was always piled with his writings or his um uh you know letters people had sent him or things like that. And um uh two things really notable about that that trip. One, he gave me a book and the book's called The Artist's Way, which um it's a big bestselling book. I'm sure a lot of people watching this video know what it is. And um turns out I can't remember whether it was his niece or good child of good friend of his or whatever, but the author of the book um uh a woman named uh Julia Cameron um she ended up, you know, kind of kind of falling on some tough times and needed a place to kind of land. And so she went and stayed with Max um and she wrote this book, The Artist's Way, while she was staying with Max. And then it became this massive bestseller. By the way, her name is Julia Cameron Lent. Her husband is James Cameron, the director of the Titanic and whatnot, right? So, um, you know, she went on to great things after this, too. And again, this Max was just the kind of guy that played that sort of pivotal role in people's lives. So, anyways, we're sitting at his table and he pulls out this um this is back in the days where you you had Kodak film that you would send to be developed. And he he had a a roll of or you know, pictures he had just gotten back from getting developed. He was like, "Oh." He's like, "Adam, you got to see these photos." He's like, "I I found these cans of film from like, you know, the 50s or the 60s that I didn't realize I had, so I just went and got them developed." So, he had starred in the movie Niagara alongside Marilyn Monroe. So, I'm looking at these photos and I'm like, "Oh my god, Max." Like, these are candids of Marilyn Monroe. like these things go for auction for a crap [laughter] ton of money and he's sitting on this stack of photos of just like hanging out with Marilyn. Uh it was crazy. Um and then of course he started telling me stories of what it was like to film Niagara. And this is the key part that I I want to share with folks. So Marilyn Monroe was at her height pretty much then or or or zooming up to it. and uh the movie was made to be a vehicle for her and um they they were staying near Niagara Falls as they filmed this. So there were these little bungalows. So he said that what would happen is um they'd go to bed and a little bit after midnight Marilyn Monroe would creep into his bungalow and and and crawl into bed with him and just ask him to hold her while she cried. And he was like, you know, she was just a totally unhappy, totally broken uh person. And you know, all she wanted was somebody to just give her a safe space to just or safe spot to land for the night and and just comfort her um and treat her like a like a human being. And you know, he he his him telling me about how she had absolutely everything that she had thought that she wanted and the world thought that she was it. She I mean that this was the height of Marilyn Monroe. Everybody wanted to be like her and she was absolutely completely miserable. Um just just heartbreaking here. So, um, you know, the message here is a lot of the things that that we aspire to culturally, they aren't the brass ring that we think they are. And, you know, a lot of the people that that that are, you know, we think are the most successful conventionally sometimes are the most unhappy people. And I've I mentioned in the past that my wife is a a coup's therapist and she has a lot of clientele, especially from Silicon Valley, who are extremely wealthy. And in almost I mean not every case but in a lot of cases you can you can point a direct inverse relationship between the amount of money somebody has and the amount of dysfunction they have in their relationships in life. And so the key thing that I just want us to mention about this story is is yes this is a wealth channel. Yes we focus on money and all that type of stuff. But the things that really matter in life the things that are going to bring you happiness if that's really your end goal is to have a happy fulfilled life. It's not the material trappings. It's not the fortune. It's not the fame. It's the things that Max truly understood because this is what he focused on, you know, when he moved into my area. It was about community. It was about being in service to others and having a sense of purpose. Um, creating good friends. Um, appreciating nature. He, you know, he had a little house that was surrounded by a little apple orchard. Um, he always had a I think an English terrier uh, sorry, English bulldog with him. You know, these dogs with the big bulging eyes and the snuffling snouts and stuff like that. But it just brought him so much happiness, right? These simple pleasures. Um, so anyways, I learned a lot from Max, uh, especially about the type of man that I wanted to be and who I wanted to grow into was very influential in shaping that. Um, and you know, I I just really miss him. Um, but anyways, I'll pause here, Lance. Um, because I I'm sure you've got stuff to comment on that, but I'd love to hear too if you had anyone in your life that kind of played a similar role. Yeah, I mean, you know, look, we we've talked about this before is that, you know, money doesn't buy happiness. It just it does buy whatever comes in second. But, you know, we focus >> it helps you rent it as a weirdo. >> What I mean by that is is and and you know what what's important is is there's two reasons why people are unhappy, right? So, primary reasons, one is is you know, they have some dysfunction in their life, whether it's their relationship or whatever it is, um jobs, whatever. So they're unhappy about that. But if you don't if you're also struggling financially, it just compounds the issue of unhappiness. Right? So what I mean by money buys whatever comes in second, it removes that, you know, having money removes that obstacle of just trying to struggle to make ends meet, which is, you know, as we talked about before, two leading causes of divorce are infidelity and and finances. And if you've got trouble with finances, it's probably going to lead to infidelity at some point, right? because you're just trying to find an outlet to be happy or to find happiness. You know, my life sucks over here, so I'm going to go try this grass over here, which looks to be greener. It isn't, but that's just human nature. >> Um, you know, so, [clears throat] you know, we spend a lot of time on this channel talking about doing the right thing with money, building wealth, you know, taking advantage of markets, those type of things because it does help provide that underpinninging. So under underpinninging that you've got the ability to focus on what the other problem is that's keeping you unhappy whether it's relationships or jobs or whatever the whatever the fact is. But you know one of the lessons that took me a long time to learn was is I was always out chasing money like ever since I was out of high school. I was you know running my own businesses when I was in college. Um I was you know doing you know working in banks, working in finance. I was trying to figure out, you know, where the money needs to be made. And I've always and I've always just been that person. This why I've just been a serial entrepreneur over life, which is starting businesses, growing them, selling them, moving on to the next thing. Kind of always chasing that that goal. And you know, it just took a long time for me to realize that that's not that wasn't making me happy and that I had to focus on other things to find what it was that I was missing, which turned out to be family at at that point. And you know, it's just when I was younger, I was like, I never wanted kids. I never wanted relationships. It was all about chasing the chasing the dollar. And >> sorry, personal question for for you to wrap in your answer. If you want to answer it, you can tell me it's none of my business. None of your business. >> But your your current marriage is your second marriage. >> That's correct. >> And and were some of these lessons you were learning about the balance of money and other things. Was that were those learned through that first marriage? >> No, but unfortunately my first marriage was a function of just the bad partner choice. >> Okay. >> And there was, you know, it had nothing to do with Well, I shouldn't say that. That's not >> I didn't want to derail. I was just wondering if it was relevant. >> No, no, no. There there is actually a point to that which is you know in my and so my work day as an example used to be and and my current wife will tell you this as well because she was part of this work schedule but my work schedule started at 4 in the morning and ended at 11 at night >> and so you know my first marriage failed partly you know there was a big chunk that was her responsibility but I have to take responsibility for that as well is that I was I was out chasing the dollar and she didn't understand that while I was doing that it was it was affording her the lifestyle that she wanted but she also wanted me to be there all the time and I couldn't do both right and so at the same time that she wanted this lifestyle that she wanted to have which I was having to work to provide and you know it required me to be away from the house to work to do that but that was the conflict right >> the what The reason my second marriage has worked so well is and then when when we got together, I told her up front, I said, "Look, this is what I'm doing. This is my goal, and these are the hours that I have to work to do this." And there were there were reasons my hours were set. I was doing I was running a business during the day, doing radio from 4:00 to 8:00 at night, then doing a national radio show from 10 to 11. That's why I didn't get home till 11. And so I explain this to her and she's like, "Okay, I understand my job." This is why I'm talking about, you know, having a really good partner. If to to to find happiness, you've got to have a really good partner in life. She says, "Look, my job is to take care of the house, take care of the kids, so while you're out doing what you have to do, you don't have to worry about what's going on at the house. Then when we come together, you have to commit that when you come home, it's all about me." And I was like, "Deal, done. I can do that. And that's why our relationship has worked very well for the last 15 years is that we we've maintained that relationship. She works a full-time job. I work a full-time job. When we meet, though, at the end of the day, work turns off and we just focus on each other, what we're going to do, etc. And that's what makes that relationship work. But that's also where I ultimately found happiness was finding the right partner that allowed me to be who I was, but then also taught me the the benefits of having a strong foundational family structure. And that's where with the kids and the the relationships that I built with my children, the relationships I've built with my wife, that's where I found, you know, happiness for me, right? For me, that's happiness, right? that that family unit structure gives me joy and I enjoy taking them to to go do things and enjoying the fruits of labor, but that's why I work so hard is to provide for them and and to do the things that I can for them. >> All right. Well, one, thank you for being so transparent, Lance. Um, I I know you didn't know I was going to ask you that uh personal question that personal. Um, I'm very happy that you have found yourself to that stage. You're a good guy. deserve it and and so does your your wife and your >> It only took me 47 years to get there, but >> but you got there. It's the important part. Um and uh you're you're you're helping me make my sort of concluding points here, which is um uh you know, so yes, folks, we talk a lot about money and pursuing the brass ring and what life, but as you know, Max's story about Marilyn tells us, uh it's not the trappings that that matter, right? it it it's the other things that are much more um fulfilling and real. Um and so my my counsel to you all is to really spend some time reflecting on what truly matters to you in your life and really focus on that stuff, right? I mean, spend your time really leaning into that stuff. Um if you've got someone who who changed or influenced the trajectory of your life like a a Max, you know, like Max did for me, if they're still alive, you know, reach out to them and thank them. I mean, I I there's not a week that doesn't go by that I I something reminds me of Max and I just wish that I could tell him now that I'm a full adult, you know, the the the impact that he had on me. There's a ton of conversations I would love to have with him now that I'm, you know, older and can see life through through eyes more similar to his. Uh and it it and I'm just so sad that I can't, right? So, if you've got someone like that who's still alive, man, reflect back to them at the impact that they've had on you. And then third, ask yourself, you know, most of the viewers here that are watching are 45 and older. And I just know that from all the surveys uh that we've done. Uh so we're a bit older. So a great question to ask yourself is, well, who can I inspire? You know, who could you be a max to in your life? Um, that's that's a part of the I think the privilege that we have at at our point if we've gotten to this age and we've learned some of these life lessons, you know, particularly if we've amassed some sort of success and and understand kind of some of the fundamentals of what what creates a successful life. How can we pass that along to the next generation, especially as we've talked about a lot in the past, you know, a younger generation that that that is having a tough time finding their way into the future. So, you know, highly encourage you to think about whose life trajectory you might be able to positively change going forward. And with that said, if you think one of the best ways to improve your life trajectory is to continue to watch Lance Roberts on his channel week in and week out, let him know that by hitting the like button and then clicking on the subscribe button below as well as that little bell icon right next to it. I tell you, Lance, I tie you to that call to action as best I can every week. Um, if you would like to get some help from a professional financial advisor in terms of um, positioning your financial wealth for the year ahead, you know, one that might be as full of twists and turns as Lance and I think it might be this year. Uh, if you don't already have a good professional financial adviser playing that role for you, well then consider talking to one of the ones that Thoughtful Money uh, endorses. Um, these are the firms you see with me on this channel week in and week out. Perhaps you'd like to even talk to Lance himself and his team there at Raa. To do that, just fill out the very short form at thoughtfulmoney.com and the adviserss will be in touch with you right away. As a reminder, uh Andy Sheckchman's offer while supplies last to be able to buy uh junk silver from miles Franklin for just $1.35 above spot. Uh that's supplies are still lasting so far on that. So if you want to take advantage of that, just go to thoughtfulmoney.com/bygold. And again, if you want to join Lance and I in Houston next week, go to realvestmentadvice.com, click the link at the top of the page, buy your ticket, and come join us. Lance, as usual, my friend, I'll give you the last word. >> No. Uh, I really would like to see you in Houston. So, like uh like Adam said, you know, come come to the conference. It be a lot of fun. We've got a few tickets left, so you know, go ahead and and uh do that sooner rather than later because they are going to go pretty quick. Um, and Adam, looking forward to seeing you next week. Should be a lot of fun. >> Yeah. Yeah. And let you know I I think if you don't mind, we got to record our session on Thursday next week before I hop on the plane so that folks that aren't at the conference have something to watch while we're there. >> No, I I was going to ask you when you wanted to do it, but yeah, Thursday's fine. I can make that work. >> Okay. Fantastic. All right. Uh I'll send you calendar invite after we hop off here, Lance. Um see you in a week, buddy. And everybody else, thanks so much for watching.
Expect At Least Two Market Corrections In 2026 | Lance Roberts
Summary
Transcript
there's some room for this market to get some legs underneath it, but you know, we've got some work to do. First of all, we've had basically, you know, eight straight months in a row where markets have been positive. That's a very long stretch. So, you know, having a month or two where you get some consolidation or a bit of a contraction even would not be surprising at all. Say, you know, say the last half of this month we have a 3 to 5% correction for, you know, whatever reason. That would be totally unsurprising given this massive run. we had from those April lows. Uh you should expect probably this year um in 2026 at least two 5% corrections and probably a 10% sometime this summer would not be surprising at all. Welcome to thoughtful money. I'm Fal Money founder and your host Adam Tagert. Welcoming you here at the end of the week for another weekly market recap with my good friend, the done and dusted portfolio manager, Lance Roberts. Lance, how you doing? >> I'm doing good. I'm very excited. Uh next week, of course, uh when we're having this conversation on air, you'll you and I will actually be in Houston for our investment conference. So, uh we've got one week left. We got a few tickets left available on the website. So if you go to realvestmentadvice.com, click on the u the link at the top of the page and get your ticket. Love to see you here. We get time to visit. Adam and I both will have plenty of time to visit, hang out, talk after the conference. So uh if you haven't got your ticket yet, be sure and do it. It'll be a really good conference. >> Yeah, should be really fun. Um looking forward to doing this market recap with you live next week in front of your live audience. Um so folks, if you're watching and able to get to Houston next week, um please join us. It's going to be a great time. So, Lance, I chose done and dusted because your wife's chemo treatments are now behind her, correct? >> Exactly. Yes. Very excited. Um, all [clears throat] the blood work has come back exceptionally good. So, we're, you know, her CA125 is down below 10. Now, it's at nine, which is one of the kind of the one of the tests. Um, normal ranges are up to from like 0 to 30. So, she's well into normal ranges, which is fantastic. I told you about the singularity test which showed no evidence of disease. So, she's she's done really good. She's just recovering now. The test the last chemo was Friday. So, she's just now starting to get past the the nausea of that. But, uh she's very excited. She's starting to grow back here. So, she's very excited about that. >> All right. Well, look, we are super excited for her and for you that the news appears to be developing so nicely. Um, you know, I know you're not out of the woods for years until, you know, they they they clear you, but um, how fantastic that things have been going the direction they have been and um, so wonderful and I really look forward to giving her thanks from everybody from Thoughtful Money in person at the conference next week. >> Yeah, she she'll be there Friday night for sure for the mixer. So, uh, she's she's looking forward to seeing it. >> All right. Fantastic. Well, and Ashley, my wife is coming, too, so she's looking forward to meeting her in person as well. Um, all right. Well, look, lot lots to get through and and not a lot of time. Um, >> Lance has got to get out of here for another uh checkup with the doctors there. So, um, we'll get you out on time here, Lance. Um, a lot to cram in here. Hopefully, a rant that might not even be a short one. So, we'll see if we can't get it all in and if not, we'll we'll make changes on the fly. Um, first off, folks, forgive me if I look a little uh peaked. Um, I got in real late last night. um investing in one of the most important things which is your social capital, your community. As folks know, I moved to Reno uh this year and um got invited to my first guy's poker night last night um and didn't crawl back into the house until quite late. So, I'm uh recovering from that. What I did learn most from this, Lance, besides that there are some, you know, really great guys I hadn't hadn't yet met that I got a chance to spend time with last night, but um as you learn during events like this, uh the power of alcohol and luck is just amazing. Um as folks know, I don't drink. Um, so I have no excuse for for performing poorly in uh things like poker, but the guy that just cleaned the table, Lance, just got drunker and drunker through the night. And he started, you know, he started amassing so many chips, he could kind of push people around. Um, but he got to the point pretty early on where he wasn't even checking his cards. You know, playing Texas Holde, so you get delivered dealt two cards right at the beginning. His big thing became like, I'm just going to bet and I'm not even going to look at my cards. And this bastard just kept winning again and again and again. I kept waiting for reversion of the mean to kick in, for the alcohol to really kick in. And this guy just cleaned the table until his wife came and and uh and took them and then we devied up all his chips cuz he had all the chips at that point in time. So anyways, uh it's always a caution of um you know, if you're sitting at the table and you're feeling like the psy um you probably are and I definitely was last night. All right, so lots to get through here, Lance. Um, let's start with the markets. Um, you know, everybody is feeling the the tractor pull to the big round number of 7,000 S&P. Um, but we haven't quite hit it yet. And last time you were on, we talked about that you were seeing some healthy rotation, some some broadening of the markets. Um, is is that what's continuing here? Is that's kind of is that sort of what's keeping the the mag 10 from pulling the S&P to 7,000 because capital is starting to flow in some of these other sectors that have been less loved. >> Well, it's actually the the MAG 7 that's keeping the index from getting to 7,000 because they've actually kind of been underperforming. Apple, Nvidia, Google, Meta, they're they're doing okay. There's nothing going wrong with them, but they're just really not going anywhere. So that's what I'm saying because the capital I think is flowing into other parts. Right. >> Yeah. Right. Right. So uh yeah you know what's been supporting the market here is we're definitely saw you know in fact I'm writing about that in this weekend's newsletter um which is looking we you know part of the discussion is looking at value versus growth and value has been outperforming growth now for the last few weeks and in fact uh just last week on on the first trading day of January we launched a new factor rotation model on simp. It's an actual live dollar portfolio. So I've actually got capital invested in this portfolio. Um but it it looks to rotate between value and growth. And right now it's about 80% value versus 20% growth. >> Really? Okay. So this is new. Uh but you think this is apparently going to be an important enough theme of 2026 that you've you've committed real capital to this? >> Well, no. We've been re so Nick Lane um who is our one of our CFAs on our investment team has been researching this model for about a year and a half now. Um we've been back testing it, testing it in a whole variety of different manners. No, this is a long-term uh portfolio. It's not something we're designing just for 2026. Um there is a long history of value versus growth rotations. And in fact, if you put a value chart up against a growth chart, they're almost mirror images. And there are times when growth outperforms, there's times when value outperforms. And so what this model looks for is it looks for relative changes to that correlation between fac value and growth and then it rotates the portfolio between 80% growth or 80% value uh based on those changes. So it's When you say rotates between 80%, is that [clears throat] in in gradations along the way or is it just 80 one way or 80 the other way? >> No, no, it's in gradations. As we start to see the relative performance pick up, we start migrating over. It can happen very quickly, mind you. So, this this portfolio isn't for tax sensitive people because it can have a lot of turnover within a given year. Um but um over time the the value versus growth relationship works out well and provides better performance with a lower beta volatility than you get just in owning an SP index. >> Okay. Um how how what are your expectations for how active it's going to be going forward? And I only asked that because it it seems and I could be wrong here, but it seems like for the past bunch of years, it's kind of been pinned to growth. [laughter] Value's really gotten the short end of the stick for quite a long time. >> And and and that's right. I mean, you could be in the growth side of of the of the equation for a year or a year and a half or two and then it rotates into value for six months, eight months, a year, year and a half, then it rotates back to value. So, it's it's not this isn't something that rotates like every week. Um, it takes time for these changes to occur. And so, we're looking for the macro changes of value versus growth. Um, but there's enough historical work there and evidence that's there that gives us a pretty good model to work off of. >> Okay. All right. Um, well, so maybe we should just pull up the S&P and get the the technicals out of the way, especially since we're we're pressed on time here. Um, but what do you think now? Okay, we're in a new year. Um, we're not that far from 7,000. Um, the momentum here is up and to the right. Um, not quite as uh as strong as it was, you know, for what, July through September of last year. Um, but it's still, you know, it it still doesn't look like we've reached any sort of technical peak in the market yet. But correct me if my assumption is wrong. >> No, no, it's right. I mean, you know, take a look at the chart of the S&P. We're bumping up. You know, it's interesting. We've we've set some new all-time highs this year, but we haven't actually closed above intraday highs. So, you know, we're we're kind of bumping up to the top of this kind of trading range. And again, you know, we're, you know, looking back here, you've got a kind of a nice flat top to the markets, but it's creeping up. So, you're kind of creating this this kind of rising wedge that's bullish. So, a breakout above 7,000, you should get a little bit of relative momentum behind the market. So, you know, we're not overbought. You look at relative strength, it's improving, but it's not overbought. Uh momentum, uh, signals are, you know, kind of in a good average range. They're not overbought either. So there's some room for this market to get some legs underneath it, but you know, we've got some work to do. First of all, we've had basically, you know, eight straight months in a row where markets have been positive. That's a very long stretch. So, you know, having a month or two where you get some consolidation or a bit of a contraction even would not be surprising at all. Say, you know, say the last half of this month we have a 3 to 5% correction for, you know, whatever reason. That would be totally unsurprising given this massive run we had from those April lows. Uh you should expect probably this year um in 2026 at least two 5% corrections and probably a 10% sometime this summer would not be surprising at all. But you know given those opportunities those will be some good spots to add to exposure increase your equity you know kind of risk profile so to speak. uh markets should kind of try to push their way higher at least here over the next few months because again momentum's in place. Earnings still look good. Economic growth is okay. Nothing going wrong there. Um we can talk about the employment data. It was weak. You know, that's certainly a concern, but you know what markets are focusing on is that weak employment data means the Fed's going to remain easy and that's going to provide more monetary accommodation. Buybacks going to be about 1.2 trillion this year. That'll be another strong support for markets. So there's not a lot of catalyst right now for a big major reversion, but that doesn't mean we're not going to have some corrections along the way. >> Okay. Um so let me ask you this. So let's talk about the jobs for a second. Um we got the ADP and the payrolls this week for December. Um both were sort of slightly less than expected, but not a ton, right? So definitely, you know, not warning bells or anything like that. And on the unemployment rate, it actually dropped uh a tenth of a percent to 4.4%. Um so to your point, Lance, it's kind of almost like a Goldilocks uh result for the way that Wall Street likes to look at things, right? You know, um it's not bad. So, we'll feel good about that. But it's bad enough. It's weak enough that the Fed is likely to continue its easing, right? Which of course is what Wall Street wants, right? Well, I mean, if you take a look at full-time employment versus the working age population, that's declining pretty sharply, and that certainly doesn't suggest that you've got a roaring economic backdrop, right? Um, by any stretch of the imagination, >> you know, printing out Go ahead. >> True. Um, but I want to let me just mention this so you can include it in the rest of your answer. Um, GDP has has for GDP now has has been sharply revised up. And I know there's some reasons for that, but um GDP growth is is not coming down. And in fact, you know, there there looks like there could be catalysts to the upside. Some of the things we're seeing in the GDP now data and then you and I talked last week about at least the administration saying, look, there's a lot of things that are coming and we're going to talk about some of that stuff uh today. Um so uh you know could could we actually have a strengthening economy that's not paired with uh job growth right whether you know AI or whatever just keeps things muted not not bad not mass you know total firings like we've seen in past recessions but just hey you know this economy is beginning to warm up but that doesn't necessarily mean that the employers are going to start hiring you know in in robust costly anytime soon. >> Right. Okay. But it's all fine. That's that's right. Um you know the GDP now numbers revised sharply up because you had a massive surge in net exports because of gold exports alone. Right. So you had this massive surge historical surge in gold being exported out of the US. So that that gave a massive bump to the trade uh the net export issue in GDP which gave it that massive jump. That's why it doubled. um that's not a sign of economic prosperity at all. Right? That's a that's a oneoff anomaly. We saw that same anomaly back earlier this year. We saw a big drop in GDP because of frontr running tariffs and that was a a big trade def uh trade deficit issue and we saw the net export number really be the big contributor to that drop in the first quarter and then it came roaring back in the second quarter because that was all reverse after tariffs. So you're seeing the same exact impact now. Um but >> sorry but if if you back out that gold bump I think the GDP growth is still solid right it's not like it's >> solid it's about 3% right on a on a quarterly now you got to remember how GDP also announc uh GDP now is also reported they they're taking their number and multiplying it by four right so they're taking the quarterly number so say it's 3% you have to take that number and divide it by four because that's what the quarterly GDP actually is so again it's it's just It's assuming that that when you read that number GDP 3% or 5% whatever it's assuming that every single quarter going forward is going to be exactly the same as this quarter which is not really a great way to look at data because data doesn't work but it it's it's you know it makes great headlines. Um, but the but you're you're the the bigger point that that you're missing is that you don't want economic growth without employment because that means >> not missing. I I I I [laughter] know I I I agree with you there. I'm just saying that might happen this year, right? >> Well, yeah, it might happen, but that doesn't increase earnings, right? And so, at the end of the day, what we want is we want earnings to grow for corporations that comes from economic activity. And if I'm not putting people to work, then I don't have as much money spent in the economy. Yes, I'm going to have some one-offs this year that's going to keep, you know, economic growth supported. You got a lot of AI spending on capex, a lot of business investment, those type of things. But that's not going to lead to broader economic prosperity if we don't have job growth to go along with it. And what we need more importantly than just job growth is we need full-time employment that pays benefits and allows people to support families and those type of things. So yeah, we can have economic growth that looks good on the surface, but underneath you get a deterioration in economic prosperity that eventually flows into corporate earnings. >> Okay. So, um I I mean I agree with all that and look, I'm I'm hoping both for a stronger economy that comes with greater wage, real wage growth, right? Um you know what's interesting to do though is just prepare people for some of the the possibilities of this year. And you and I talked last last time about how we could have a year of strong economic growth but poorly performing markets, right? They don't have to be correlated. And obviously when valuations are as high as they are right now, the risk of that happening is higher than normal, right? We have this K-shaped economy as well. And you know, as long as asset prices don't uh crater, um those who have assets going to continue to spend. And we just got the um the holiday spending numbers. Um we saw that uh online holiday sales, online holiday sales, but I think this is true of all um hit a new record. Uh 258 billion basically um heavily driven by buy now pay later and people responding to discounts. So, you know, not necessarily the healthiest sign there, but to your point about the importance of earnings and whatnot, the spending is still there and that could continue through the year driven by that top cohort, right? Again, on average looks great on median wise doesn't, but but GDP only really cares about the average in until and unless the the bottom 80% really get into tough times. Well, and again, we talked about this earlier this week on the show, which was that, you know, one of the things that you never do is count the consumer out. And it's like, oh my gosh, you know, consumers have so much debt. You know, they're they're about to tap out. This market's going to crash. You know, the the I've been in this market for over 35 years, approaching 40. Um, and I tell you, you know, over the years, it's what's always amazed me is how consumers can find more money, whether they find it on credit cards, they take out loans, they go sell, you know, their kidneys, whatever it is, buy now pay later, you know, the new thing. But it's always amazing to me is is that consumers are always able to find more money to keep spending. You know, and again, you know, it's it's it's funny, you know, you and I talk about the K-shaped economy and how things aren't fair. you know, and people can't afford houses or whatever. And a massive function of that is their own financial, you know, kind of habits and what keeps them poor. And what keeps them poor is finding all these alternative measures, right, to spend money and >> when they should be tightening the belt and really Yeah. >> Yeah. But but again, you know, it's it's the you know, the one and again [clears throat] this old axiom of Wall Street is never count the consumer out because they'll always surprise you. >> Yeah. No, I totally agree. And you know what? I feel like going into credit card debt is like the analogy there is selling your kidney. I think going buy now pay later. The analogy is like selling your second kidney. >> Exact selling your heart, you know, just [laughter] like eventually, you know, once that's gone, it's gone. Yeah. Exactly. Um, by the way, folks, we're kind of laughing through the tears on on this one. >> Yeah. >> Um, so let me stick on this just for a second here. So from my perspective, you disagree with me if you're seeing something different. There are a few signs at this point that we're we're heading off any sort of economic cliff. And look, I'm the first guy to say, you know, to give you the long list of reasons why we could end up falling off one. Um, but to your point, Lance, we we have to trade the world as it is, not as the world as we think it should be or wish it were, right? Um, so, uh, you know, so first off, I think we just all have to acknowledge that, right? And so if you're if you're pessimistic about the the current economic system and the current markets or whatever, you just want to be eyes wide open, right? So you don't necessarily want to be taking a drastic position in your case, Lance, that might just be going all into the bunker type of uh, investments or even more aggressively going short. you know, a guy I know was pinging me yesterday telling me that he, you know, has gone pretty short for March and April, and I'm basically telling him, man, I hope that works out well for you, but that's that's, you know, I I that that would make me nervous on that too, too short of a timeline here. Um but uh so so we're not seeing a ton of signs yet of the wheels coming off and there are factors as you and I have discussed that could um make the economy surprise to the upside this year. Right. And certainly if you're listening to the administration, Secretary Basant, whatever, you know, he'll give you a very thought through litany of reasons why he thinks the economy is going to be running much hotter at the end of this year uh than at the beginning. And a lot of this stuff is he would say, "These are the investments that we made through 2025 with all the, you know, new policies we passed and all that type of stuff." And I I think you count that stuff out at your uh at your danger, at your risk, right? I'm I'm not saying they're going to manifest, but I can see how if they do, they'll have the impact that that the administration thinks they will. So, you've got to have some positioning in your portfolio. Okay. if if the administration actually succeeds on that, I got to make sure I'm not steamrolled by that. Now, in addition to to what I think they've been trying to do, which is to create things that are going to drive more secular growth, it is increasingly clear to me at least that they are willing to do whatever it takes in the near term to try to support the system, goose the system in advance of the midterms. Right? So, you know, we're going to get the biggest tax refunds apparently in history this year. that's going to be hitting pretty soon. A lot of that money is going to be spent. It's going to juice the economy presumably. And we're still waiting to hear what the Supreme Court's going to say about tariffs, but there's a bunch of tariff revenue that comes in that's come in that the president has said, "Hey, I'm going to I'm going to send checks to middle- inome households with that." If that indeed happens, that's going to have a stimulus effect. We just saw yesterday the president announced that uh somehow he's going to find somebody to buy 200 billion worth of mortgage back securities here, right? So to me, Lance, it's it to me that says look, the administration's getting really serious about kind of buying votes, you know, for November. Um and whether I like that, whether I dislike it, um and folks, I dislike uh things that are artificially stimulative. Um, I I I got to admit that if they do this stuff, it may actually juice the both the economy and the markets. So, you know, I got to be eyes wide open to the fact that Yeah. You know, even though I've got some of these concerns, these things, at least in the short term, could overpower them. What do you think? >> Oh, yeah. No, absolutely. I mean, just take a look at the deregulation. Uh, you got a lot of benefits coming from the one big beautiful bill that'll factor through this year. Tax cuts are one of those. there there's a lot of economic support you know for the markets you know both economically and just fundamentally in the markets for this year doesn't mean that things are going to work out fantastic there's a lot of other things that could come along that could certainly undermine that but you know as a good example let's say the supreme well the Supreme Court was so as you and I are talking it's about 10:30 central time uh here in Texas on Friday >> on Friday >> Friday uh the Supreme Court was supposed to rule on tariffs at 10 o'clock this morning they didn't they ruled on another uh issue revolving around uh prisoners being able to have their sentences reviewed by the Supreme Court. Um but they they didn't get a ruling on tariffs. So that still might come. But see if the if even if the Supreme Court comes out and rules against tariffs, which is according to poly markets anyway, that's a pretty high probability they will rule against the tariffs. Then you know the question that becomes is what does the administration do next? Well, Scott Messen's already said he's got three or four other avenues to go down to get tariffs, you know, kind of reinstated using some other means. We'll see what happens. But if you repeal the tariffs, it's actually good for companies like Staples and a lot of value companies, the manufacturers, etc. that, you know, do imports and exports on an international basis. That's going to help improve their profit margins because you just removed the tax. So, that's going to be good for the markets. You know, you know, we all debate over the the validity of tariffs and whether they're good or bad or indifferent, but just the bottom line is if you take tariffs off companies, that's that's going to be a boost to bottom line profitability. So, you know, so so again, there's a lot of things that are supportive of the markets right now, but that doesn't mean that in three months or six months something can't crop up that kind of pulls the rug out of underneath the markets. And again, that is the thing. Mind you, all this stuff that you and I are talking about, the market's already factored in, right? There's there's nothing you're thinking about or I'm thinking about that the market hasn't already thought about, that's the beautiful thing about markets. It's millions and millions of minds all trying to figure out what's going to happen next. So, all that's factored in, but the thing that gets the market is something totally unexpected like, you know, the president standing in the Rose Garden going, "Hey, look, here's the tariffs on a board." And the markets weren't expecting that at all. So, you got a big correction. It'll be some event that causes Wall Street to go, you know what, we're not going to make $330 a year in earnings this year. It's going to be 300. What does that mean for valuations? And that's where you get a price correction in the markets. >> Yeah. Well, so what's interesting is I feel like so last time we we last week when we talked you basically said that you were going to write kind of a a a redo or or or a second version of the piece you wrote at the beginning of last year, right? The curb your enthusiasm thing. I can't remember. You were going to use a different analogy or different TV show this year. >> It's at South Park this year. >> South Park. Okay. But but basically making the same case, right? which is that you think this year is probably going to be more volatile and um you know probably it it's going to be a tougher year than say 2023 2024 right and even most of 2025 how 2025 played out right um uh and similarly to that or corroboratively of that I'm finding that the people I interview on this channel like the really smart people who are really plugged in they're coming up with very different perspectives on next year. Um, so two people in particular who I definitely place a lot of weight on on on their analysis. Um, one is Yan Vanek. Um, so you know, he's the president of the Von family of funds, right? I mean, these are they've got ETFs in in virtually any asset class that you can think of, right? And Jan kind of sits at the center of the the web there where all that information flow is coming through his desk. So, he's got one of the probably most informed perspectives on on on the securities market than anybody that I know. And Lance, he is really bullish. Um, he he he he just did a presentation that's going to release on this channel uh the day after this uh video airs. So, that'll be Sunday uh for folks. Um, and he walks through a bunch of charts and and basically gives a, you know, pretty compelling reason for why he thinks 2026 is going to be a big risk-on year. And, you know, I did the whole thing with him about just statistically, you know, four years in a row of of great returns is rare and stuff. And he gets it, but he's like, I'm just telling you, looking at all these factors here, they make me pretty darn bullish for the year, right? So, very compelling case. Now, a video I just released yesterday was with Michael How's, you know, Mr. liquidity and Michael was one of the very first I think he was the first guy that I knew who really stuck his neck out in October of 2022 and said guys it's time to go bullish and it's largely based upon his framework of global liquidity and it had bottomed and it had had started going back up and his liquidity cycles run in several year um time frames and he basically said the cycle has turned I think we should be bullish and he remained bullish all the way up until just now and he's saying you know my my My data is telling me that the liquidity cycle highly likely peaked in Q4 last year and we're going to be riding it down for the next couple years unless there's a correction that's so severe that it just shortens the cycle. Um so he's basically saying look I'm not necessarily calling for like a crash in 2026. I'm just telling investors it's going to be a disappointing year compared to the previous three great ones that we've had. So my point here is just it's going to be tough to really predict this year well. And so it's a kind of year where you're really got to have diversification or multiple strategies in place to be able to say, "Okay, look, if my primary thesis is wrong, I want to make sure that I'm not wrecked because of that." And and it's a year where I just think the chances for surprises are higher than normal for all the reasons that you just mentioned and I just mentioned. >> Yeah. I know and and that's and that's why you know I think predictions are pretty full hearty and you know we don't make predictions for the year. We just produced our outlook for 2026 which is a range of outcomes uh that ranges from 5500 to 8,000. And the whole point of that is is that the markets can wind up anywhere in between that range depending on what comes. And so what's important is is just to navigate the markets. You know it's interesting if you think about how most people invest. they go, I think the market's going to be bullish this year, so I'm all in, you know, growth stocks or whatever. And, you know, then things go wrong and they lose a bunch of money and >> or they just have even just the rotation you're talking about where they go nowhere because the investors went everywhere elsewhere >> or or vice versa, right? You know, they they go incredibly short and the market goes keeps running higher and they wind up the wrong side. So, you know, for us, it's it's simply like navigating a ship. Is that, you know, I'm not just going to get my ship and say, "Okay, I want to wind up in Alaska and just point the boat in that general direction and hope I get there." You know, you're going to navigate. You got storms to worry about. You've got, you know, obstacles to worry about. You've got a port for fuel, whatever. >> Stand bars, pirates, weather. Yeah. [laughter] >> Exactly. You know, always pirates. They're always a problem. So, you know, but but yeah, I mean, the goal is that we just have to navigate that ship to our end goal. And as things change, we're going to change our our place in the markets. You know, look, we're overweight equities right now going into the year because we're still bullish on the year. We're still long our Googles and our Metas and our Nvidas. We own those guys and but we've recently added things that are really stupidly boring like, you know, Altria, which is boring. It just throws off an 8% yield. You know, it's just those type of things, you know, added a bit of Verizon to the portfolio. It's really boring. It doesn't do anything. It just sits there and throws off yield. That's okay because if the market does correct, money is going to rotate into those sectors and that provides us some some some ballast in in the portfolio that we can increase later on if we need to. So yeah, you know, we got a little bit, you know, we're kind of tapping the brake just a smidge, but it's not enough really to slow down the momentum of the car right now. >> All right. And sorry, by tapping the brakes again, you're not diminishing your equity exposure. You're just shifting a bit more of it to these boring, more defensive plays. >> Yeah. And and very small. I mean, you know, we're still probably 85% growth um versus value right now in our primary models. Um the, you know, like I said, the you know, and and you know, depending on the model that that you're talking about, but our primary model, we're still about 80% growth in allocation, about 20% value and defensive and that'll that'll shift, you know, as you know, kind of markets dictate and but right now there's nothing telling us that that growth is falling off a cliff right now and so we want to stay more exposed to that long side. Yeah. Okay. Um so how to transition into this? Um I I guess let me ask you this. Do you have an opinion on um international stocks? So right now India is the fastest growing country in the G20. It's a market that Yanvan has been really bullish on for a couple years. Valuations got pretty rich. So you know middle of last year he was like I love it still but I'm not sure if I'm a buyer at these prices. things have cooled off a little bit. Not necessarily asking you about India, but um the rest of the world stocks actually outperformed the S&P last year. Um do you have a sense as to whether you think that's going to continue this year given all that growth >> there? So if you take a look, okay, so first of all, you got to break down the world into regions. Um so you can't just say international versus domestic because for instance the Euro zone is not going to grow at all. They're, you know, way behind the curve on terms of AI and and what's going to happen in that growth cycle of AI. Their GDP, they're they're plagued with years and years of decades of bad monetary and economic policy that have just kind of really destroyed the growth cycle of those countries. And so Eurozone quote unquote will grow around 1% next year according to the IMF. Uh US GDP growth is going to be closer to two. uh you start getting into some of these emerging market countries like India, China etc. their growth rates are going to be a lot higher. But you always have to remember one thing about international and this is the the the the big factor that comes back into all this. The the mis I should say the misstatement that's always made is is that well these countries are cheap relative to the US. That's a that's a bad analogy. Um for 15 years international markets have vastly underperformed US markets. So again, if you've owned a bunch of international emerging market stocks, yeah, they weren't great last year, but over the last 15 years, just as an example, they just so massively underperformed. They were like a major boat anchor to your your boat getting to where you want to go. So it just really dragged on your overall performance. A lot of these countries are and again um as your guest said, you know, India is very rich right now relative to itself. So when you're thinking about investing internationally, I'm certainly not opposed to it at all. I think you have to look at each country that you want to invest in and determine is it cheap relative to the country itself, not relative to the US. It's irrelevant. It's only is it cheap or expensive relative to itself. And you know, if you can find a country that's trading very cheaply and they've got good strong economic prospects, that's probably a good place to put some capital. Unfortunately, I just don't see a lot of those areas in the world right now. >> Okay. So obviously folks, you know, watch the video with Yan to get a little bit more specific on some of the other parts of the world that are catching his attention, but for a second, I know you said you're not thinking of this way, but just think of it as the rest of the world, right? And I'm sure there are funds where you can just buy, you know, a mix of of >> everything, >> everything >> given again this is the difference between economic growth and and stock market prices. So US out outgrowing a lot of other places like the Euro zone. Um but stocks very richly valued right. So with a broad brush you know international stocks outperformed the US last year. Do [clears throat] you think that momentum is likely to continue or not this year? Or maybe as a more simple question what role do they should they play in a portfolio just just non US exposure? you know, I I think you're late to that trade. The momentum will probably carry that international trade maybe a few more months. Um maybe even the rest of this year. It's very possible. Um one of my favorite charts to always look at as I'm sure you've seen it, Adam, is the Kalen periodic table of returns. >> Yeah. >> And so it shows you on these periodic tables. It's, you know, it's like a periodic table of elements, right? But it just shows you, you know, what asset class performed the best last year all the way down to the worst. And what you'll notice in particular is that a first of all, anything that's at the top of the return structure for one or two years always winds up at the bottom of the return structure in the subsequent years. So that just always, you know, this is why investors always tend to be wrong as they chase what was performing at the time it begins to underperform. >> Usually I would agree with you. I mean for too many years recently the hyperscalers have been up near the top. But yeah, >> generally you're right. again, you know, S&P is, you know, again, two or three years at the top and then it'll fall, you know, like we had in 2022, right? You had a a correction in 2022. >> Um, but but the point is is that international markets in particular spend less time at the top than they do at the bottom. >> So, you know, just they outperformed really well last year. Could they do two years? Yes, that's not entirely impossible. But I think you're get, you know, given the economic growth dynamics of those countries, I think you're getting towards the tail end of that run, not the beginning. So just, you know, the point is if you're going to own them, it's fine to own them. Just make sure you understand your risk profile and how you're building it into your portfolio structure. >> Okay. So you said that you are starting to increase slightly right now, but but maybe more as the year goes on. TBD um your portfolio into sort of more defensive areas, right? The more boring, less sexy, high income stuff. What about defense stocks? What what's your position at RA with defense stocks? There's a lot of people that are saying, "Hey, you know, that's where all the money's going, not just in the US, but but kind of everywhere internationally." Um, that that that should play a bigger percentage in the portfolios going forward. What do you think? >> No. Yeah, we own, for instance, one of the stocks we own in our portfolio is Rathon Technologies. Uh, we've owned that company when it was back when it was United Technologies before Rathon acquired them. We've owned that company for for years and we've made just a ton of money in that thing. Every time it goes up, we trim it back. We, you know, it runs up again, we trim it back. Um, the frustrating part has been we've been wanting to actually increase that exposure in the portfolio, but we can't get a good break to where that thing will correct enough to allow us a good entry point. So, you know, it's it's it's, you know, continuing to do well. I like defense companies. I think they're going to continue to do well. So yeah, you need, you know, I wouldn't I wouldn't go massively overexposed in defense stocks. I think everything requires a balance, but yeah, you should definitely probably own some defense stocks in your portfolio. >> Okay. Um, >> real quick, that said, all defense stocks are not the same, so make sure you choose wisely. >> All right. So, two questions on that. One, from a a richness sort of from a multiple standpoint, how is the sector currently trading? And then, okay, Blance, that sounds great. I I I want to own one of the good defensive stocks. What should I be looking for? >> Well, and well, you know, price performance is one. I mean, that's that's kind of an easy way to look at them. If you start scanning through defense stocks, whether it's Northrup Grumman or General Dynamics, uh, Rathon Technologies, go right on down the list. Um, you know, you'll see some that have better stock market performance than others. So you just would kind of want to pick, you know, don't buy the one that's beaten down when everything else is up because there's probably a problem with that particular company. And yeah, it's there. Sometimes stocks are cheap for a reason is the point, right? So just make sure that you're buying the company that's in the right space, whether it's Loheed Martin, you know, whoever it is. So there's some great companies out there. But then again, at the end of the day, all these stocks are trading pretty rich. Um, they're growing revenues like crazy. Fundamentally, they're very good. So, you know, fundamentals will matter ultimately and but the one thing about defense stocks is, you know, they can be volatile. So, you know, if you're going to own them, understand that, you know, it's not uncommon for defense stocks to to trade down 10, 15, 20% and then rally right back to alltime highs. So, you've got to give, if you're going to own them, you've got to give them more wiggle room in your portfolio and not, you know, sell out at the first sign that they're going down. >> Okay. Um uh there was an announcement yesterday, day before by Trump that um uh basically said he want, you know, wants to increase the um the budget for the US military >> and I think it was by a good amount. Um he said he wants to get up to 1.5 trillion. Um so presumably I think Wall Street hears that and says, "Okay, should own defensive stocks." That's even more money coming their way. >> Okay. >> Yeah. No, no, he said a couple of things. First of all, you know, he said, you know, he's going to ban buybacks and dividends until they get back to producing quicker, uh, producing military equipment faster and then also repairing equipment faster, which I thought was interesting. >> Okay. So, that's a negative then for the stock price, right? >> Yeah. Yeah. Well, it was negative for a day and then the next day they went roaring right back to alltime highs because of the announcement. today we're going to we want to increase spending. So yeah, you know, you got to take these things with a grain of salt. Look, I mean, at the end of the day, you know, this this president is very much pro America, America first, increase national security and that requires a stronger military. So, you know, he's very promilitary and and that's good for the defense sector and and again, that's why we own that we own exposure in that area. will probably increase exposure to that area at some point if we can get like I said get a decent correction in price. Um but you know yeah again I think you just have to have exposure there. >> Okay. Yeah. And I got to say too it's just crazy making. I mean, I spend a lot of time on X during the day and you know, Trump just throws these things out so fast and furious and and you know, like within the span of 24 hours, you know, he delivered something I've been asking for for years, right? Which was, hey, let's get big institutional money out of the single family home market. And I was like, God, thank God. I've been begging for that, right? And then less than 24 hours later, and then I want to buy 200 billion of mortgage back securities. I was like, come on. It's like the worst thing ever. So, [clears throat] you know, it's bananas. >> Got one step forward, one step back, right? So, >> well, and look, and and that's why I I mean, really, that's why I brought that up earlier. Like, I just sort of see that as as increasingly like that tariff checks to households, whatever. Like, I'm going to do whatever it takes to try to win the midterms, right? So, I would just say be prepared, folks, for lots of lots of unnatural acts between now and and November. >> Yeah. And and again, you know, I I see where his intentions are. I mean, and they're good intentions, right? You know, it's like, I'm gonna, you know, I'm going to buy back $200 billion worth of mortgage back securities. We're get rates down so people can afford to go buy a home. Well, the problem is is that >> But it's not. It's going to raise prices. It's going to keep that affordability problem there. It's a gift to existing homeowners. >> Exactly. So, you know, the the problem is is that it's a well-intentioned But this is most economic policy in the country. >> But I don't know if it is well-intentioned. I think he's just like, I don't want to have a housing price correction before the the midterms. That's going to be bad. there there's nothing on the there's nothing on the horizon saying that a house price correction is even coming. There's nothing out there. Supply and demand. >> Okay, I disagree on that, but let's not fight this kind of >> I'll I'll tell Yeah. Okay, fine. We can argue about it later. But the point is is that that ain't going to happen before the midterms. So, you know, again, his his goal is to be well-intentioned. Hey, and look, Dubai votes for midterm, get mortgage rates down. Awesome, right? And you know, it sounds great. But the problem with the majority of economic policy that comes out of Washington is it's misguided. It's this sounds good on the surface, but they don't ever look at the unintended consequences. This is why we had the housing bubble to start with was because of all the unintended consequences that came from adjustable rate mortgages and no money down. >> Well, that's my again that's why I just hate it so much, which is you're not going to solve an unaffordability problem caused by too much intervention by more intervention. >> Exactly. And yeah, and the same thing with checks to households. We know how that turns out and I I don't think I don't think he ever sends checks to households. I don't think he can get that pushed through Congress. But, you know, that's a terrible idea. We know that if you send checks to households, you're going to create a spike in inflation. You're going to >> with you problems. You know, again, there's no there's no incentive to do it and it just makes people poorer at the end of the day because you raise the cost, they spend the money and then they have no money but the cost doesn't come down. Yeah. >> So, you know, everything equalizes at a higher price. It's just bad. These are bad bad policies that we've been doing for over a decade. You wonder, you look around, you go, why are we in the situation we're in? It all goes back to the financial crisis. Almost 90% of it is stuff we started doing back in the financial crisis. >> Yeah. I mean, there are things before that that I could add to the list, but I agree. It it built a runaway momentum with the GFC. Yeah. And and everything we should have done, >> we didn't. and we tripled down on the stuff that created the problems in the first place. Yeah. So, >> okay. So, anyways, enough about this except just I want to reiterate the folks like just prepare yourself. Who knows what the future's going to bring? As Lance said earlier, like Yogi Bara, predictions are hard, especially about the future. But a prediction I think that is easier to make right now is we're going to see more and more of these unnatural acts uh coming up to November. And like me, you might cheer some and hate the rest, but it it's going to be deformative to try to influence the uh the election results. Um all right. Uh so this is kind of a little bit tied to defense stocks, but um Lance, do you see any [clears throat] material impact that we should be aware of of some of the um fastchanging geopolitical developments that are out there? And I know in general you think the markets don't really care because they've largely priced the stuff in. But um you know very recently we had Maduro removed. Probably markets don't care so much about that specifically but of course it has economic potential. Well it has economic implications and certainly potentially around the oil industry in the future. We are I think in real time seeing a growing potential that the regime in Iran might be replaced. >> Um and I'm I'm definitely rooting for that. I think if the people could throw off the yoke of that oppressive theocracy, that would be great for them and great for the world. Again, potential economic implications. Again, potentially big ones for oil. You know, if all of a sudden Iran becomes friendly again and and you know, their oil stops getting sanctioned and all that stuff. Hopefully, at some point this year there's peace negotiated in Ukraine again. You know, potential material economic implications there if Russia starts doing business with the rest of the world again. and Russia oil stops being sanctioned. Um, so you and I have been talking >> all this, by the way, all this, by the way, is bad for oil, right? >> Well, I was going to say, you and I have been talking about how, hey, maybe this is the time to get into energy and oil because it's been depressed and all that stuff, but these are potential, you know, big big headwinds in front of it. So, >> I mean, you're talking about potential big increases supply of oil. So, you know, but again, like Venezuela, um, you know, it's going to take years. >> It's going to take years to get their oil Yeah. production up. So, and they're they're 8/10en of 1% of global oil production right now. So, it's that's an odd mover. But your points about Iran and Russia are much more, you know, near-term events if those turned out that that could bring more supply of oil to markets, depress oil prices that bring inflation down. So, everybody kind of rip for that. But, um, certainly not going to be good for energy stocks at least near term. >> So, are you making any decisions right now given all this or you just in the watch and see mode? >> Still watch and see. I mean, I I you know, I'm still in the camp that I think we can see 40 four in the 40s, right? You know, sub 50, mid4s in oil. I don't think that's out of the question >> for a sustained period of time or like a blip down into it. >> No, no, it'll be like a gradual decline and then we'll kind of base and bottom for a while and then start to, you know, whatever is causing that will will get through that. OPEC will cut production, whatever it is, and we'll start seeing oil prices climb back up. I just think you're going to see a better opportunity to buy energy stocks later than right now. You may, you know, right now you're getting a bump out of energy stocks because of hype over Venezuela. I I think that when people realize that's going to be years in the making, then I think that premium goes away and potentially you can buy the Exxon Mobile Chevrons a bit cheaper here. Again, a lot of this depends on where oil prices go. And if some dynamic occurs in the next you know month or three months or six months or whatever that we start seeing an increase um in demand for oil and a reduction in supply you know which is what's going to drive the price of oil then you know we'll start adding more we have energy exposure now but that's more tied to the AI data center development stuff um but we'll start adding you know more of the kind of the majors in terms of oil and gas you know kind of later on you know opportunistically. >> Okay. Um just wondering too like let's say that this really does depress the price of oil for a couple years at least because you know for all the reasons we just mentioned more oils coming on there. Does that take the wind out of the sales of the the high-f flyers and like the nuclear space right now because it might take some of the urgency off the table a little bit? I mean, I know the oil isn't necessarily used for um electrical production. Um but if it's just so damn cheap and plentiful, um does it take some of the urgency of moving to some of these other energy sources uh off? >> Yeah. Um you know, Meta just cut a deal with um uh Vistra and Blo and one other company. I can't remember just caught my blank at the moment. There's another company. Anyway, Meta just did a pretty big deal with them to generate about 2 gawatts worth of power from nuclear. Um, but again, the problem with nuclear is it takes a long time to build plants, right? So, Olo's trying to build a plant. It's going to take them, you know, several years to get that built. So, they're they're that's why some of the energy plays we have now are focused on that behind the meter structure of providing natural gas or liqufied natural gas to data centers for power generation through generators. And that's why we like Gnova as an example because they provide the generators. Um, you know that, you know, I think that's the near-term play. And then later we'll start to see, you know, where power comes from and who's generating most of that power. But again, you know, I there's there's still the backend problem of this that which is the grid which we don't have the ability to deliver. Great, you can build a plant, you still got to deliver the power, right? And so one of the the big factors is going to be the buildout of the infrastructure to deliver the power on a consistent sustainable basis. >> Okay. All right. Um well look in just that past four minutes or so we have a lot of topics that will probably be interesting rants uh for us to have going forward. Um but not for today because we're on a a time meter here. Um so I'm about to ask you about your trades, Lance. before I do uh and then we'll do the rant after that. Um is there anything else that's like really burning brightly on your radar that I haven't thought to ask you about yet? >> No, it really it's been boring. Um you know, the the good news is is that the first five trading days of the year were positive. So, as the old Wall Street axiom goes, so goes the first five days, so goes the month, so goes the year. So right now we've got the one of the tri one piece of the trifecta in place for a positive year down on the other side. >> The Wall Street groundhog didn't see a shadow. So we're >> Exactly. And but Santa Claus didn't come. Right. So you know when Santa Claus fails, >> but well but it's not like he brought coal either, right? I mean the markets didn't corre, you know, correct or anything. >> But what Santa Claus when a failed Santa Claus rally occurs, you generally have more volatility in January and February. So you potentially have a corrective month in February as an example >> which would again like I said after eight months of just positive return so far >> you'd expect a negative month would not be surprising at all. Again that doesn't mean the market crashes but you know a two 3% down month in February or two or 3% 5% down by the end of this month would be out of the realm of possibility. So you know you should be aware of that. But but again, if if we can, you know, kind of keep our footing here, keep the markets where they are dynamically, everything looks pretty good right now. Um, earnings are okay, growth is okay. There's nothing looming out there at the moment that's that's a big impact because again, all the narratives, go set those off on a shelf somewhere because they don't matter. The only thing that matters is earnings. And what you're looking for is whatever event or catalyst it is that makes Wall Street go, "Yeah, we're not going to be able to generate those earnings this year. It's going to be less and now I've got to repric the market for low earnings." That's the only thing you need to be watching out for. Everything else is >> nonsense. >> Yeah. But like I said, you know, holiday holiday online spending was at a record. So we're not seeing stress there yet. >> No. Exactly. And but you also got >> I mean we're seeing a lot of stress consumers but it's not impacting the average spending yet. Yeah. >> Also take that with a bit of grain of salt as well because if you actually look at real retail sales they've been flat now for like three years. >> So retail sales we look at them we look on a nominal basis and to understand why that's important is that if you fill up a gas >> if prices go up even if you're buying the same amount of things it looks like growth. Yeah. We we >> Yeah. Exactly. So you know it's that that's that's the real issue. Yeah. we're spending more to buy the same amount of stuff and that's not really economically >> but on that real basis it's flatlined but again you're not you're not seeing signs yet that it's it's deteriorating. Yeah. Below the >> No, not yet. But you know the the the important thing about that is historically is that when you go through a period of where real retail sales are flat that's normally pre-recessionary >> right normally pre-recessionary. And again, like I said earlier, like I look, trust me, Lance, you know me, I can come up with a whole bunch of concerns around this, but then again, if we give people the biggest tax returns in history and then maybe potentially in addition to that, give them some tariff checks, >> that's going to lead to more spending, right? >> Yeah. I don't think we get the tariff checks, but >> Okay. But but maybe it's some other form of relief, right? You know, >> but even Scott Mess said it'll be a fun the tariff checks will be a function of the tax refunds. >> Yep. >> So, forget about the tariff check. just to just record >> tax refunds. Again, like like I said, you don't have to like this. You just have to be aware it's going on. Yeah. >> $800 to $1,000 uh estimated refunds this year for most people. >> Yeah. That's that they'll go out and buy new TVs. >> Yeah. Um and the sad thing is is, you know, they'll take the money and say, "Oh, I've got this free money to spend." And then they'll they'll spend more than that, right? Well, okay, I got a,000 bucks, but the thing I'm going to buy is 1,500 bucks. So they're actually spending more money out they'll be they're out of pocket more than they otherwise would have been right if they hadn't gotten the check in the first place. >> Real real quick real quick one thing and then we'll do our rant. There was a great article in the Wall Street Journal earlier this week and you and I have talked about before all this speculation zero day you know zero day expiration options and leverage >> great article uh there was a guy named Captain Condor um which he had this whole group of followers that were trading zero day to expiration options >> Condor because that that's a formation with option >> pair trades right >> he was called Captain Condor And he was using the old Wall Street method of betting, which is that if you lose money on your bet, you double the next bet. If you lose that bet, you double the next bet. So for >> they lost 50 basically. They wip he wiped out their entire group u on I think it was on Christmas Eve if I'm not mistaken. There was actually went on to GoFundMe to ask for money to pay for bills for the month >> but lost everything. Um, and and so the the point is, and we've tried to explain this before, it seems like trading options are a risk-free bet, but when things go wrong, they go horribly wrong really quick. And they lost like this group lost like $50 million in total. So, don't gamble in the stock market. >> Yeah. Again, as we've said, you know, the the markets have gotten so used to speculating, sadly, because in a lot of cases, they've been rewarded for it for so long that everybody is >> follow some idiot on a video that you're watching on YouTube. I mean, I wouldn't do it. >> So, it's it's funny. Um I mean the the we've ranted about this a lot in the past so I won't do it again here but just how um we have with both carrot and stick um forced people to become speculators versus investors right it's become cultural now um and I hope I'm not spoiling anything for you Lance but you watch Land Man right >> did did you see did you see the latest episode >> I have not so don't spoil it >> um well okay all I'll say is there's a scene where they go to a in the last one where they go to a casino and it is very much >> I saw the episode. Okay, I saw the episode where >> Okay. Yeah. And so what does she do? She does exactly that, right? Keep doubling down because she's losing. And then they have her win like $300,000 or something like that. And of course the the the I'm watching that going like what a terrible message to send to, you know, the American viewing audience that you just have to just keep doubling down when you speculate, right? >> Yeah. Because you're going to end up like Captain Condor. >> All right. So trades, have you made any trades over the past uh week or as you said, are you still kind of in a wait and see? >> The the portfolio the our main flagship portfolios are are perfectly fine. Um you know, we we reduced um you know, kind of rebalanced our our all-weather model a couple weeks ago. The only thing we did this past week was really the new factor rotation model which is now up and live and running. So that's you know that was started you know January the what what is the date? uh January the 2nd. So that's the only thing that's occurred over the past week. >> Okay. So folks want to go check that out, they can go to simplevisor.com and and find that factor model amongst all the other ones you have. Okay. So we're going to get you out of here fairly soon, Lance. Um I was reflecting on um kind of a seinal person in my life and um I'm going to tell I'm going to tell the my story with them. Uh but it it it's going to make some key points. Um some of which are ones that we've touched on in the past, Lance, but I think they're important to remind people of especially at the beginning of a year. Um so, uh there was a a guy who moved into my town when I was a teenager, um or town next to me, and um uh he was a longtime Broadway and Hollywood actor. Um he was a guy, his name was Max Shoalter. Um, he also went under the stage name Casey Adams, but uh, he he was he was a character actor and he worked in just like he worked with everybody. I mean, there there wasn't like a like a a star of the silver screen that you could think of that that Max didn't have a story with her or wasn't a good friend of, right? Really charismatic guy. Um, his most memorable stage role was as uh, Horus Vandergelder in Hello Dolly, right? So, he was he performed more than 3,000 times opposite Carol Channing and Betty Greybel and Ethel Murman. Um, he appeared in more than a thousand television programs. Um, most folks watching this probably will know him from the film 16 Candles. He was Grandpa Fred in 16 Candles. Um, had this [clears throat] great grally laugh. Um, but just just such a great guy. and um he he ended up settling in the town next to me where I grew up. I grew up in a in a really small historic village in Connecticut um because he had been filming some movie decades ago and kind of fell in love with the area and said, "You know, when it's time for me to retire, I want to move there." So, we did. And what he started to do to kind of just plug into the town and the community is he started showing, you know, these great um movies. So, I first met him when he was showing Singing in the Rain, right? So, you go to this, you know, little theater. He shows Singing in the Rain. Uh, he comes out and he says, "Hey, everybody, you know, wasn't that great?" And we talk about it for a little bit and he says, "Well, hey, look, do you want to talk to Debbie Reynolds?" You know, star of the movie. And she walks out from behind the screen because he's best buddies with her, right? And you get to just sit there and talk to Debbie Reynolds for the night, right? So, he would do that again and again. Really just a wonderful guy. uh created a wonderful experience for the community. Um and he then um he then started directing plays at the local playhouse and that's kind of how I met him really. I got to know him well. Um I got cast in a few of the plays and so you know he directed me and uh we had uh he he really just became kind of a great mentor and really a great friend. Um so I used to just go to his his house and we'd sit down and talk for hours and really just just kind of the coolest guy. And you know what he would do is like he you we're all like teenagers in these plays he's putting together and then you know afterwards we'd go to his house and you know we'd talk to Mary Martin right or we talked to Katherine Heppern. Um it was just ridiculous. I mean the access that that this guy gave us. But anyways, um the the key story I want to tell here is um one of the last times I went to visit him, uh we were sitting there in the table in his uh in his his kitchen and his house was just packed Lance with memorabilia like just play bills and you know signed head shot of all the greats but just things he had picked up in his travels around life. There were things there from the palace of Versailles. It was it was it was just an amazing place to hang out. Um and his table was always piled with his writings or his um uh you know letters people had sent him or things like that. And um uh two things really notable about that that trip. One, he gave me a book and the book's called The Artist's Way, which um it's a big bestselling book. I'm sure a lot of people watching this video know what it is. And um turns out I can't remember whether it was his niece or good child of good friend of his or whatever, but the author of the book um uh a woman named uh Julia Cameron um she ended up, you know, kind of kind of falling on some tough times and needed a place to kind of land. And so she went and stayed with Max um and she wrote this book, The Artist's Way, while she was staying with Max. And then it became this massive bestseller. By the way, her name is Julia Cameron Lent. Her husband is James Cameron, the director of the Titanic and whatnot, right? So, um, you know, she went on to great things after this, too. And again, this Max was just the kind of guy that played that sort of pivotal role in people's lives. So, anyways, we're sitting at his table and he pulls out this um this is back in the days where you you had Kodak film that you would send to be developed. And he he had a a roll of or you know, pictures he had just gotten back from getting developed. He was like, "Oh." He's like, "Adam, you got to see these photos." He's like, "I I found these cans of film from like, you know, the 50s or the 60s that I didn't realize I had, so I just went and got them developed." So, he had starred in the movie Niagara alongside Marilyn Monroe. So, I'm looking at these photos and I'm like, "Oh my god, Max." Like, these are candids of Marilyn Monroe. like these things go for auction for a crap [laughter] ton of money and he's sitting on this stack of photos of just like hanging out with Marilyn. Uh it was crazy. Um and then of course he started telling me stories of what it was like to film Niagara. And this is the key part that I I want to share with folks. So Marilyn Monroe was at her height pretty much then or or or zooming up to it. and uh the movie was made to be a vehicle for her and um they they were staying near Niagara Falls as they filmed this. So there were these little bungalows. So he said that what would happen is um they'd go to bed and a little bit after midnight Marilyn Monroe would creep into his bungalow and and and crawl into bed with him and just ask him to hold her while she cried. And he was like, you know, she was just a totally unhappy, totally broken uh person. And you know, all she wanted was somebody to just give her a safe space to just or safe spot to land for the night and and just comfort her um and treat her like a like a human being. And you know, he he his him telling me about how she had absolutely everything that she had thought that she wanted and the world thought that she was it. She I mean that this was the height of Marilyn Monroe. Everybody wanted to be like her and she was absolutely completely miserable. Um just just heartbreaking here. So, um, you know, the message here is a lot of the things that that we aspire to culturally, they aren't the brass ring that we think they are. And, you know, a lot of the people that that that are, you know, we think are the most successful conventionally sometimes are the most unhappy people. And I've I mentioned in the past that my wife is a a coup's therapist and she has a lot of clientele, especially from Silicon Valley, who are extremely wealthy. And in almost I mean not every case but in a lot of cases you can you can point a direct inverse relationship between the amount of money somebody has and the amount of dysfunction they have in their relationships in life. And so the key thing that I just want us to mention about this story is is yes this is a wealth channel. Yes we focus on money and all that type of stuff. But the things that really matter in life the things that are going to bring you happiness if that's really your end goal is to have a happy fulfilled life. It's not the material trappings. It's not the fortune. It's not the fame. It's the things that Max truly understood because this is what he focused on, you know, when he moved into my area. It was about community. It was about being in service to others and having a sense of purpose. Um, creating good friends. Um, appreciating nature. He, you know, he had a little house that was surrounded by a little apple orchard. Um, he always had a I think an English terrier uh, sorry, English bulldog with him. You know, these dogs with the big bulging eyes and the snuffling snouts and stuff like that. But it just brought him so much happiness, right? These simple pleasures. Um, so anyways, I learned a lot from Max, uh, especially about the type of man that I wanted to be and who I wanted to grow into was very influential in shaping that. Um, and you know, I I just really miss him. Um, but anyways, I'll pause here, Lance. Um, because I I'm sure you've got stuff to comment on that, but I'd love to hear too if you had anyone in your life that kind of played a similar role. Yeah, I mean, you know, look, we we've talked about this before is that, you know, money doesn't buy happiness. It just it does buy whatever comes in second. But, you know, we focus >> it helps you rent it as a weirdo. >> What I mean by that is is and and you know what what's important is is there's two reasons why people are unhappy, right? So, primary reasons, one is is you know, they have some dysfunction in their life, whether it's their relationship or whatever it is, um jobs, whatever. So they're unhappy about that. But if you don't if you're also struggling financially, it just compounds the issue of unhappiness. Right? So what I mean by money buys whatever comes in second, it removes that, you know, having money removes that obstacle of just trying to struggle to make ends meet, which is, you know, as we talked about before, two leading causes of divorce are infidelity and and finances. And if you've got trouble with finances, it's probably going to lead to infidelity at some point, right? because you're just trying to find an outlet to be happy or to find happiness. You know, my life sucks over here, so I'm going to go try this grass over here, which looks to be greener. It isn't, but that's just human nature. >> Um, you know, so, [clears throat] you know, we spend a lot of time on this channel talking about doing the right thing with money, building wealth, you know, taking advantage of markets, those type of things because it does help provide that underpinninging. So under underpinninging that you've got the ability to focus on what the other problem is that's keeping you unhappy whether it's relationships or jobs or whatever the whatever the fact is. But you know one of the lessons that took me a long time to learn was is I was always out chasing money like ever since I was out of high school. I was you know running my own businesses when I was in college. Um I was you know doing you know working in banks, working in finance. I was trying to figure out, you know, where the money needs to be made. And I've always and I've always just been that person. This why I've just been a serial entrepreneur over life, which is starting businesses, growing them, selling them, moving on to the next thing. Kind of always chasing that that goal. And you know, it just took a long time for me to realize that that's not that wasn't making me happy and that I had to focus on other things to find what it was that I was missing, which turned out to be family at at that point. And you know, it's just when I was younger, I was like, I never wanted kids. I never wanted relationships. It was all about chasing the chasing the dollar. And >> sorry, personal question for for you to wrap in your answer. If you want to answer it, you can tell me it's none of my business. None of your business. >> But your your current marriage is your second marriage. >> That's correct. >> And and were some of these lessons you were learning about the balance of money and other things. Was that were those learned through that first marriage? >> No, but unfortunately my first marriage was a function of just the bad partner choice. >> Okay. >> And there was, you know, it had nothing to do with Well, I shouldn't say that. That's not >> I didn't want to derail. I was just wondering if it was relevant. >> No, no, no. There there is actually a point to that which is you know in my and so my work day as an example used to be and and my current wife will tell you this as well because she was part of this work schedule but my work schedule started at 4 in the morning and ended at 11 at night >> and so you know my first marriage failed partly you know there was a big chunk that was her responsibility but I have to take responsibility for that as well is that I was I was out chasing the dollar and she didn't understand that while I was doing that it was it was affording her the lifestyle that she wanted but she also wanted me to be there all the time and I couldn't do both right and so at the same time that she wanted this lifestyle that she wanted to have which I was having to work to provide and you know it required me to be away from the house to work to do that but that was the conflict right >> the what The reason my second marriage has worked so well is and then when when we got together, I told her up front, I said, "Look, this is what I'm doing. This is my goal, and these are the hours that I have to work to do this." And there were there were reasons my hours were set. I was doing I was running a business during the day, doing radio from 4:00 to 8:00 at night, then doing a national radio show from 10 to 11. That's why I didn't get home till 11. And so I explain this to her and she's like, "Okay, I understand my job." This is why I'm talking about, you know, having a really good partner. If to to to find happiness, you've got to have a really good partner in life. She says, "Look, my job is to take care of the house, take care of the kids, so while you're out doing what you have to do, you don't have to worry about what's going on at the house. Then when we come together, you have to commit that when you come home, it's all about me." And I was like, "Deal, done. I can do that. And that's why our relationship has worked very well for the last 15 years is that we we've maintained that relationship. She works a full-time job. I work a full-time job. When we meet, though, at the end of the day, work turns off and we just focus on each other, what we're going to do, etc. And that's what makes that relationship work. But that's also where I ultimately found happiness was finding the right partner that allowed me to be who I was, but then also taught me the the benefits of having a strong foundational family structure. And that's where with the kids and the the relationships that I built with my children, the relationships I've built with my wife, that's where I found, you know, happiness for me, right? For me, that's happiness, right? that that family unit structure gives me joy and I enjoy taking them to to go do things and enjoying the fruits of labor, but that's why I work so hard is to provide for them and and to do the things that I can for them. >> All right. Well, one, thank you for being so transparent, Lance. Um, I I know you didn't know I was going to ask you that uh personal question that personal. Um, I'm very happy that you have found yourself to that stage. You're a good guy. deserve it and and so does your your wife and your >> It only took me 47 years to get there, but >> but you got there. It's the important part. Um and uh you're you're you're helping me make my sort of concluding points here, which is um uh you know, so yes, folks, we talk a lot about money and pursuing the brass ring and what life, but as you know, Max's story about Marilyn tells us, uh it's not the trappings that that matter, right? it it it's the other things that are much more um fulfilling and real. Um and so my my counsel to you all is to really spend some time reflecting on what truly matters to you in your life and really focus on that stuff, right? I mean, spend your time really leaning into that stuff. Um if you've got someone who who changed or influenced the trajectory of your life like a a Max, you know, like Max did for me, if they're still alive, you know, reach out to them and thank them. I mean, I I there's not a week that doesn't go by that I I something reminds me of Max and I just wish that I could tell him now that I'm a full adult, you know, the the the impact that he had on me. There's a ton of conversations I would love to have with him now that I'm, you know, older and can see life through through eyes more similar to his. Uh and it it and I'm just so sad that I can't, right? So, if you've got someone like that who's still alive, man, reflect back to them at the impact that they've had on you. And then third, ask yourself, you know, most of the viewers here that are watching are 45 and older. And I just know that from all the surveys uh that we've done. Uh so we're a bit older. So a great question to ask yourself is, well, who can I inspire? You know, who could you be a max to in your life? Um, that's that's a part of the I think the privilege that we have at at our point if we've gotten to this age and we've learned some of these life lessons, you know, particularly if we've amassed some sort of success and and understand kind of some of the fundamentals of what what creates a successful life. How can we pass that along to the next generation, especially as we've talked about a lot in the past, you know, a younger generation that that that is having a tough time finding their way into the future. So, you know, highly encourage you to think about whose life trajectory you might be able to positively change going forward. And with that said, if you think one of the best ways to improve your life trajectory is to continue to watch Lance Roberts on his channel week in and week out, let him know that by hitting the like button and then clicking on the subscribe button below as well as that little bell icon right next to it. I tell you, Lance, I tie you to that call to action as best I can every week. Um, if you would like to get some help from a professional financial advisor in terms of um, positioning your financial wealth for the year ahead, you know, one that might be as full of twists and turns as Lance and I think it might be this year. Uh, if you don't already have a good professional financial adviser playing that role for you, well then consider talking to one of the ones that Thoughtful Money uh, endorses. Um, these are the firms you see with me on this channel week in and week out. Perhaps you'd like to even talk to Lance himself and his team there at Raa. To do that, just fill out the very short form at thoughtfulmoney.com and the adviserss will be in touch with you right away. As a reminder, uh Andy Sheckchman's offer while supplies last to be able to buy uh junk silver from miles Franklin for just $1.35 above spot. Uh that's supplies are still lasting so far on that. So if you want to take advantage of that, just go to thoughtfulmoney.com/bygold. And again, if you want to join Lance and I in Houston next week, go to realvestmentadvice.com, click the link at the top of the page, buy your ticket, and come join us. Lance, as usual, my friend, I'll give you the last word. >> No. Uh, I really would like to see you in Houston. So, like uh like Adam said, you know, come come to the conference. It be a lot of fun. We've got a few tickets left, so you know, go ahead and and uh do that sooner rather than later because they are going to go pretty quick. Um, and Adam, looking forward to seeing you next week. Should be a lot of fun. >> Yeah. Yeah. And let you know I I think if you don't mind, we got to record our session on Thursday next week before I hop on the plane so that folks that aren't at the conference have something to watch while we're there. >> No, I I was going to ask you when you wanted to do it, but yeah, Thursday's fine. I can make that work. >> Okay. Fantastic. All right. Uh I'll send you calendar invite after we hop off here, Lance. Um see you in a week, buddy. And everybody else, thanks so much for watching.